BITCOIN: This could be your life-changing trade?!

If you are watching the actions this week, that was very big firework on the ground.

09/23: BAKKT Launch
09/24: FSC general SEC meeting
and after this meeting 400M $ of LONGS liquidated on bullmarket(!) and BTC dropped 15% in a single day mostly in one hour....

You sould ask: WTF happend here sir? They said BAKKT is bullish...or not?

Let's see where could go the price from now:


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1/ ANALYZE THE 200DMA PRICE ACTIONS
Are on bearmarket again? Or will be soon?
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The most important indicator for BTC is the 200MA ribbon on daily:
* closing above this for more than 2 days & after a long term trend: we are now on bullmarket
* closing below this for more than 2 days & after a long term trend: we are on bearmarket


Lets see EVERY example in BTC history:

2011 Sept - 2012 Marc / BTC Daily

* small market , penny stock , short time of bearmarket
* 200MA closed below, but the bulls didn't can close above 200MA for many days
(bulltraps over time from 2012 Jan to Marc)

2012 Marc - 2014 Marc / BTC Daily

In the next 2 years BTC didn't can to close below the 200MA, only once (for 1 day) but obviously that was a beartrap

2014 Marc - 2015 Jun / BTC Daily

Closing more than 2 days below 200MA causing new bearmarket for more than 1 year.
After few hundred days trend changed and confirmed with more than 2 daily candle, doesn't matter this bulltrap near after the trend reversal.

2015 Jun- 2017 Dec / BTC Daily

This one is very interesting! After a ~1.5 years of bear trend we are closing above 200MA for more than 2 days.
After 1 month the bears trapped for another month.
After the fake breakdown we are now on confirmed bullmarket for the next 2 years.

2018 Febr - 2019 Apr / BTC Daily

After 2 years 3 candles in a row closed below 200MA you.
So you should prepare for bearmarket.

Doesn't really matter where the price goes after this .... or deadcat or whatever

We are on confirmed bear trend now.

2019 Apr - ? / BTC Daily

Closing above 200MA for 3 days after a long bearmarket confirms the trend changed to BULLISH.

Touching or closing for a few days (or perhaps for a month!) below the 200MA after a confirmed trend changing doesn't really effect the main trend for next 1-2 years.
Which is now obviously BULLISH since April 1...

CONCLUSION of the 200DMA point: if we are changing the 1-2 years main trend with more then 2 candle close on the other side of the 200MA : this will cause trend changing for long duration anyway.

If we are going below the 200DMA at the starting of a bullmarket (like now) - the price cannot stay there more then ~1 month beacause the trend already flipped before strongly.


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2/ RSI(20) must be your best friend ever
The best tool for searching entry points inside a trend
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I've wrote an another educational content about RSI(20) usage : BTCUSD How to making LOT of MONEY - Hunting Divergence

So I'm a very conservative trader, I'm not using many charting tools, because as I've experienced: most of them are showing the past instead of future.

So using MA, EMA, Boilinger B., MACD, Stochstic oscillators, SAR, and other averaged ribbons are not the best way for catching a momentum of a good entry point!
Instantly stop using these indicators if you are not veryvery successfuly with these tools in the past 1 year!

I will writing more free educational materials about my YOU-MUST-USE indicators. (these are completely free and built in on every charting software....so this is not an advertisement!)

The RSI(20) is the most important one!

In this section I will show the other usage or daily RSI on the BTC chart (not the divergence, what about I was wrote earlier).

There is a proofable correlation of BTCUSD and the daily RSI: During a confirmed bullmarket if you are open a long position ONLY WHEN the RSI(20) CLOSE on daily is below 40 : you must be maybe one of the most successfuly traders on the world.

As you see 5/5 example worked at the last bullmarket....

And that is not all!

If you've opened this only once at the first occured time inside a bulltrend and let the position run away to the moon for at least 1.5-2 years.... so this causing 20x, 30x, 40x, 50x price move!

Oh boy what a move, it isn't?

Think about it: how many times are you so stressed about the intraday price moves...and for what?! Big lose or small win inside a day trading... not very satisfied if you would like to live a normal life out there in the world!

With this strategy you can make at least the following dollar value result:
* x20 BTCUSD move like above
* with Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract trade (for example with Bybit)
* and ONLY x2 MARGIN (which I think is very safe!)

YOU'VE MADE 40x profit ( 4 000 % ) on BTC and 80 000% (800x) on USD value!
With only ONE TRADE in 2 years...

I don't know how are you guys, but that is far enought for me.... for a whole life maybe. This is a lifechanging profit, even if you are only started with 0.2BTC! (for example: if you are started with 0.2BTC now 1.700$, after a cycle that means 1.360.000$ !!! )

GUESSSING where is BTCUSD now:

Yes, just started the first retrace bottom of this cycle!!!!

(This is not financial adwise, I'm just writing what I'm doing now!!!)

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3/ Other confirmation tools for this bottom
STOP-loss, Targeting and Helper indicators
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NOTE: I will writing free educational content about these indicators, but now I would like to point the confirm sings only.

3/2/ VPVR - the weighted volumes

This is a very popular indicator in the current bullmarket, this means: many people are watching this, and trading this levels as S/R.

You can see: the most occured range is $7.9k . That is the strongest support level.


3/2/ TD Sequential - the tired trend indication

The 9th daily bear sequence inside a bullmarket almost every time indicates main trend continuation.

This indicator is only good for confirm your idea, not the ultimate tool!

The pro traders who are using this are sayin: after the 13th candle after complete a 9th sequence you can prepare for trend reversal. But not necessary wait for that, effective on more TF-s. And now 4H, 6H, 12H, 1D TF are almost equal.


3/3/ FIBONACCI measure - predict retracement levels

Most classic natural price level tool for pre-calculate retrace prices.
At Aug 1st I've wrote and article about that (BTC will show you: SIR, WHEN MOON?) and is's still valid now.

FIB 0.616 - 0.5 range is the best retrace level inside a strong trend.
As you see: the absolute calculated bottom is $7.2k of this correction move.



3/4/ Murray's Math - the pointless insane/fear indicator

We could just guessing the exact algoryhm of this (because the original software is licence proteted) but there is a free indicator tool in tradingview called "UCS_Murrey's Math Oscillator_V2" which is almost working similar like the original indicator.

During bullmarket if the value of this indicator showing value under -0.75 : that means pointless fear on the market

Now this indicator showing us -0.95 ... very good!
(If this indicator would bottoming to -1 : there would be no lower at that price, that level would be a blindly instant LONG. We are very close but not necessary waiting for that value.)


3/5/ Classic TA with market structure

I've posted about market structure at Aug.7., and that TA and trendlines are still valid now: BTC is at top & Overbought territory

But freshing to double channeling:

Classic TA is always the best way to find out moves:

* ~41% is the most bigger correction amount during bullmarkets
* double channel structure valid since 14k and 3 months
* 200MA wicking as support


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CONCLUSION
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Q: Is the current price (~8.3k) the absolute bottom of the current correction?
A: Not sure, but we can define the absolute bottom as 7.2k

Q: It isn't too early to going long?
A: Depends on your timeframe. For me absoluteley not. Half of my cap long with x3 margin from 8.2k, and other half opening another if we will going lower (example: 7.2k)

Q: What is your target with your current trade?
A: I'm opening these positions to reaching at least 800-1000x USD based profit with only one trade. So my target is the end of the bull cycle (~2 years from now). By my calculation $200k-300k bitcoin price for there.

Q: STOP-loss level?
A: under 7k. If we reach the 7.2k, then I'm opening another long with mutch higher margin(for example x5). But always protecting your capital is the first thing need to do! If you are conservative, use only 1.5x leverage.

Q: What if I'm scared about going long now?
A: No problem, you can wait for any divergence on 1H or 4H chart. In that case this article will helping you BTCUSD How to making LOT of MONEY - Hunting Divergence

Q: What is you are wrong?
A: Nothing, I'm just a guy from the internet...this is not financial adwise! I'm just descibing my techniqes and ideas about the actual situations.


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Yorum:

If you would like to follow me to the journey, you are just in time!

7.9k and 7.2k are the last levels, what we are looking for.

Yorum:

Q: What do you think: should I wait for 7.2k or going just long NOW?
A: It's your choice, but you have a potencial risk - what if you are waiting for 7.2k and we will never see it? Only for example 7.6k and just for a 5 minute wick. That's why I've opened a LONG x3 margin at 8.2k with 1/2 cap , and if we are going that low (~7.2k) will open another LONG, but that case not x3 but x4/x5 margin.
(not financial adwise, just I wrote what I'm doing)

Yorum:

Q: Can you do a guide for x2/x3 margin trading as mentioned in your tradingview post? which exchange best to use (kraken/ftx/...)? should i use margin trading or futures trading? will the fees eat my funds up in nonvolatile times? what else to consider?

A: For example with ByBit if you depositing BTC you can trade for BTCUSD chart ( with your deposited BTC ) x2-x3 leverage as you want, and earning more BTC if you have right.
This is called Perpetual inverse swap contract. On futures you have expiration on these type contract, but in this case it is runing continously.

Fees: of course ther will be fees, but the liquidation and the initial margin fee always the higher ones.
Holding opened trade and leverage is completely free of charge on Bybit exchange.
There is a funding fee on every ~8 hours, but always depends the current LONG/SHORT ratio: are you getting paid or you paying fee after the opened positions.
(Sometimes you get money (~0.01%) but sometimes you pay the same.) So this part doesn't matter. Read more here: https://www.bybit.com/app/contract/contractDetails

So don't afraid to eating your profit this position.
You make me happy if using this registration link on Bybit : https://www.bybit.com/app/register?ref=VQOjX