Falling Wedge Reversal Pattern Update - Larger Pattern at Play!
Ok, as per my last analysis I discussed the possibility of a falling wedge reversal pattern forming. We actually fell through the bottom of the previous falling wedge I drew, so I have now recalculated based on the updated price movements. I still believe the falling wedge reversal is the most likely scenario at play; and these latest movements actually indicate a larger pattern size and hence higher breakout scenarios to the upside when based on the height of the pattern.
As you can see we are now expected to go up to around 6200-6300 before retracing again. From there I have drawn three possible scenarios based on where and when we might break out of the falling wedge:
- The green arrows launch us out of the bullish falling wedge after bouncing off the green support zone at around 5680.
- The orange arrow scenario sees us fall deeper into the green support zone at around 5500ish.
- Whereas the red arrows plays out even longer and takes us all the way to the bottom of the support zone at around 5450ish.
Regardless of which scenario plays out; we are still ultimately going lower, it’s just a matter of when! The good news is that once this happens we will then go higher as per the height of the pattern provided we have supporting volume (thus confirming our breakout).
Although our ideal paths are the green or orange arrows, at this point in time I am more biased towards the orange or red arrows; as these days we seem to play patterns out right to the apex rather than exiting at our optimal points. I still believe it won't be until October/November when we finally break out of the long term downtrend line (black). Once this happens we will go up before retracing to retest the same level as break out as support and then start the bull run. So yeah, I still feel that December seems right for the start of the actual bull run.
As you can see we are now expected to go up to around 6200-6300 before retracing again. From there I have drawn three possible scenarios based on where and when we might break out of the falling wedge:
- The green arrows launch us out of the bullish falling wedge after bouncing off the green support zone at around 5680.
- The orange arrow scenario sees us fall deeper into the green support zone at around 5500ish.
- Whereas the red arrows plays out even longer and takes us all the way to the bottom of the support zone at around 5450ish.
Regardless of which scenario plays out; we are still ultimately going lower, it’s just a matter of when! The good news is that once this happens we will then go higher as per the height of the pattern provided we have supporting volume (thus confirming our breakout).
Although our ideal paths are the green or orange arrows, at this point in time I am more biased towards the orange or red arrows; as these days we seem to play patterns out right to the apex rather than exiting at our optimal points. I still believe it won't be until October/November when we finally break out of the long term downtrend line (black). Once this happens we will go up before retracing to retest the same level as break out as support and then start the bull run. So yeah, I still feel that December seems right for the start of the actual bull run.
Yorum:
Falling wedge pattern is so far holding up! We have found ourselves within a small channel within the wedge, that is likely to send us down very soon. Only as far as the wedges bottom support around 5700ish. We will then expect a bounce up and out of the small channel which will take us to a test of the top resistance line at around 6125 before we go down for one last time before our exit upwards. It is worth noting that as per my long term analysis - I still predict we will be back down to these levels again around mid-September to the first week of October when we finally break out of the long term downtrend.
Yorum:
Link to long term prediction if intereste:
Yorum:
Channel within the falling wedge is still holding as resistance. We should be going down soon as shorts are looking close to finishing their consolidation phase, whilst longs are increasing (indicating it's a good time for longs to get rekt and shorts to increase again).
Yorum:
Longs looking ready to hit resistance
Yorum:
Longs broke to the upside of the channel in a last ditch effort by the bulls, however they are now met with heavy resistance. RSI is about to become oversold, and there is no momentum as per the MACD. The bulls resistance is futile..
Yorum:
Looking at things from a slightly different perspective the pattern may play out a bit more like this; though regardless we inevitably go deep into the support zone before our exit to the upside of the falling wedge:
Yorum:
Wow just WOW! The longers wanna get rekt extra bad. I still do not understand how/why people go long like this
Yorum:
Shorts are patiently waiting - Longs have already gone oversold.
Yorum:
People may say - well a breakout on the longs chart above the patterns resistance equals go long!! So I must say, I do not agree. You see patterns on the longs or shorts charts don't play out to the same degree as normal charts. The main thing you need to take away is that there is no volume indicator. Volume is what indicates a confirmed breakout on BTC vs charts. Therefore there has been no confirmed breakout; and this is what makes a HUGE difference.
Yorum:
On our way down to 5650ish
