POSSIBLE We COULD Wick Down to $4,975.60 as Shown in Weekly.
This is simply to point out we COULD potentially WICK down to the 0.5 PRIMARY FIB at $4,975.60 in similar fashion to what we did in 2015.
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One thing MORE safe with less risk is simply to WAIT for the White Energy to cross above the 50% level in the Weekly TF. Absolutely no shame in waiting for that rather than trying to catch this at or near the bottom. We may not see the White Energy cross above the 50% level until last week of March or first week of April.
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Let's hope that lower boundary holds...
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For starters... We would like to see the Red RSI in the 90m (Far Left) to go above 56% and CLOSE above 56%. We would also like to see the White Energy in the 6h (Far right) shoot up above the 50% level.
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It also looks like we should have no problem closing ABOVE that lower boundary of that triangle. So, likely no continued bear market till June, 2020.
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However, first things first... I do NOT want to "assume" this is over just yet. We will watch the Red RSI and White Energy in each corresponding time frame as the Red RSI closes ABOVE the 56% level (one time frame after another... we hope) and the White Energy shoots above the 50% level (one time frame after another... we hope).
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We are still waiting for the Red RSI in the 3h, 6h and 12h time frames to come up to the 56 percent level before we can even attempt any kind of EXPONENTIAL move to the upside. We need the Red RSI in the 3h, 6h and 12h to all go above 56 percent before we can begin to see the Red RSI in the 24h, 2-Day, 3-Day, etc... begin to make a meaningful move towards the 56 percent level.
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When the White Energy in the Daily runs up to pass ABOVE the 50% level in the Daily (24h) Time Frame is likely when we will also see the Green Line in the 2-Day TF turn up and the Red RSI in the 2-Day makes contact with the Green Line WHILE the Green Line is going up; indicating upward pressure in the 2-Day TF. This is also when we likely see the White Energy in the 4-Day turn up and make contact with the Red RSI WHILE the White Energy is going up; indicating a CHANCE for reversal to sustained upward pressure.
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Last update for several hours... Simply posting a view of the progress we've seen in the lower time frames and their behavior around certain SECONDARY FIB LEVELS. This chart has been posted a couple of times previously.
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This actually makes perfect sense with the price turning down dramatically in Gold and Bitcoin markets. www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvatzH7a...
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The Banks have a lot of corporate bonds that are now deemed as "crap bonds." Banks stopped lending to one another in the REPO markets. Money markets stopped accepting a lot of corporate bonds (crap bonds) as COLLATERAL for over-night loans; which resulted in the interest rates going up dramatically (10+ percent) in over-night loans. So, the FED had to step in.
Here lately the banks have been forced to sell their "crap bonds" at ANY price to make it possible for them to buy Treasury Bonds in order to have "trusted" COLLATERAL to place on their over-night loan in the REPO market. Well, banks are beginning to run out of "crap bonds" to sell at any price in order to buy Treasury Bonds to use as COLLATERAL for over-night loans in the REPO market. This is creating a severe LIQUIDITY crisis. Which is why many banks (Large Interest) to sell there Gold and Silver contracts in order to get the cash they need to buy Treasury Bonds to use as COLLATERAL for over-night loans in the REPO market.
It is anticipated that prices of real assets; such as Gold, Bitcoin, etc... may continue falling further down as banks (Large Interests) sell those assets for cash in order to buy T-Bills to use as COLLATERAL in the REPO Market. Eventually, the banks (large interests) are going to run out of assets (Gold, Silver, Bitcoin); which will make it very difficult for them to continue their scheme of continuing to buy T-Bills for over-night loans in the REPO market. Are we beginning to see SUPPLY of Bitcoin in the hands of Large Interests EXHAUST? It's hard to say...
I'm beginning to believe it's highly likely that most Large Interests (Banks) have sold pretty much all the crypto they have. Which in turn may create a liquidity crisis in the crypto market. Meaning, we may have to rely more on retail traders and large corporate interests in big tech rather than banks to provide the liquidity we need for crypto prices to go back up dramatically.
BOTTOM LINE: I see many banks on the brink of failing. If banks fail, a new Great Recession and/or depression begins. This may also cause many crypto exchanges to fail. Which is why I've said, "Take your coins OFF exchange as soon as you accumulate them. Do not leave more than 25% of your crypto capital on exchange(s)."
Here lately the banks have been forced to sell their "crap bonds" at ANY price to make it possible for them to buy Treasury Bonds in order to have "trusted" COLLATERAL to place on their over-night loan in the REPO market. Well, banks are beginning to run out of "crap bonds" to sell at any price in order to buy Treasury Bonds to use as COLLATERAL for over-night loans in the REPO market. This is creating a severe LIQUIDITY crisis. Which is why many banks (Large Interest) to sell there Gold and Silver contracts in order to get the cash they need to buy Treasury Bonds to use as COLLATERAL for over-night loans in the REPO market.
It is anticipated that prices of real assets; such as Gold, Bitcoin, etc... may continue falling further down as banks (Large Interests) sell those assets for cash in order to buy T-Bills to use as COLLATERAL in the REPO Market. Eventually, the banks (large interests) are going to run out of assets (Gold, Silver, Bitcoin); which will make it very difficult for them to continue their scheme of continuing to buy T-Bills for over-night loans in the REPO market. Are we beginning to see SUPPLY of Bitcoin in the hands of Large Interests EXHAUST? It's hard to say...
I'm beginning to believe it's highly likely that most Large Interests (Banks) have sold pretty much all the crypto they have. Which in turn may create a liquidity crisis in the crypto market. Meaning, we may have to rely more on retail traders and large corporate interests in big tech rather than banks to provide the liquidity we need for crypto prices to go back up dramatically.
BOTTOM LINE: I see many banks on the brink of failing. If banks fail, a new Great Recession and/or depression begins. This may also cause many crypto exchanges to fail. Which is why I've said, "Take your coins OFF exchange as soon as you accumulate them. Do not leave more than 25% of your crypto capital on exchange(s)."
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Here's a look at the Daily (24h) TF:
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Well, rates have been pushed down to zero point two five (0.25) percent and the FED has begun QE (Quantitative Easing). Don't be surprised to see Gold derivatives (paper gold), Silver derivatives (paper silver) and other asset derivatives; such as crypto currencies; go down at least in the beginning stage of this QE. Which means we are likely experiencing the last episode of deflation before a potential big push up. However, let's hold our horses on assuming we will have a big push up in the paper derivative asset markets.
Be not deceived... you will have a hard time finding Silver American Eagles at a couple of dollars above COMEX spot price. Even the U.S. Mint has reported they do not have silver blanks to create new Silver American Eagle coins. You might be able to buy PHYSICAL Silver American Eagles at $19.xx or higher.
We have to look at this different when it comes to crypto. When we trade crypto on crypto exchanges, we are actually trading DERIVATIVES of cryptos and not the actual cryptos themselves. I'm of the opinion most exchanges have more DERIVATIVES of cryptos on their exchanges than actual cryptos.
What would you do if you were a corrupt crypto exchange with more derivatives of cryptos on your exchange than actual bonafide crypto currencies? Would you consider continuing to depress the market price by continuing to sell derivatives of crypto you create out of thin air? For what purpose? To shake out weak hands... In other words, you would keep up with how many derivatives of cryptos you sell WHILE keeping up with how many actual cryptos are transferred to the exchange to sell on the exchange by other traders. You would then buy those actual cryptos with DERIVATIVES of U.S. Dollars you create out of thin air (USDT - USD Tether). You would also keep up with how many withdrawals of actual cryptos on the exchange to make sure you TRY to continue honoring those withdrawal requests as long as possible to avoid suspicion. THEN once it becomes rather obvious to the world the banks are failing by many banks beginning to limit cash withdrawals, we will begin to see crypto exchanges begin to limit actual crypto withdrawals by declaring they need to hold a "cash equivalent" of cryptos on the exchanges to offset their inability to withdraw cash from the bank they do business with to fulfill cash withdrawal requests. Then once bank runs begin to take place around the world, we will see ever more tightening of how much cash can be withdrawn from each account and that is when we begin to see many banks begin to close up shop (fail).
Once a bank used by a crypto exchange fails, that is when we will see that crypto exchange likely close up shop (fail). There will be no court proceedings to get your cash and/or cryptos back from banks and crypto exchanges due to a financial crisis of that magnitude. I suppose you could TRY to get as many of your cryptos back in a long drawn out court proceeding but it will take many years to get your coins back. Also, you would only get a fraction of your coins back in the end. Many will not get any of their coins back. Many will have lost everything!
Now you see WHY I've been saying you need to get your crypto OFF exchanges WHILE YOU STILL CAN. The actual real value of those cryptos will not be realized until AFTER the collapse of the FIAT monetary system has completed. Which means we will have to wait several months after the collapse before we finally see the real value of DECENTRALIZED crypto currencies. I suppose only those who actually "believe" in DECENTRALIZED crypto currencies will be willing to hold on to those cryptos while watching the corrupt FIAT financial system crumble down around them.
Be not deceived... you will have a hard time finding Silver American Eagles at a couple of dollars above COMEX spot price. Even the U.S. Mint has reported they do not have silver blanks to create new Silver American Eagle coins. You might be able to buy PHYSICAL Silver American Eagles at $19.xx or higher.
We have to look at this different when it comes to crypto. When we trade crypto on crypto exchanges, we are actually trading DERIVATIVES of cryptos and not the actual cryptos themselves. I'm of the opinion most exchanges have more DERIVATIVES of cryptos on their exchanges than actual cryptos.
What would you do if you were a corrupt crypto exchange with more derivatives of cryptos on your exchange than actual bonafide crypto currencies? Would you consider continuing to depress the market price by continuing to sell derivatives of crypto you create out of thin air? For what purpose? To shake out weak hands... In other words, you would keep up with how many derivatives of cryptos you sell WHILE keeping up with how many actual cryptos are transferred to the exchange to sell on the exchange by other traders. You would then buy those actual cryptos with DERIVATIVES of U.S. Dollars you create out of thin air (USDT - USD Tether). You would also keep up with how many withdrawals of actual cryptos on the exchange to make sure you TRY to continue honoring those withdrawal requests as long as possible to avoid suspicion. THEN once it becomes rather obvious to the world the banks are failing by many banks beginning to limit cash withdrawals, we will begin to see crypto exchanges begin to limit actual crypto withdrawals by declaring they need to hold a "cash equivalent" of cryptos on the exchanges to offset their inability to withdraw cash from the bank they do business with to fulfill cash withdrawal requests. Then once bank runs begin to take place around the world, we will see ever more tightening of how much cash can be withdrawn from each account and that is when we begin to see many banks begin to close up shop (fail).
Once a bank used by a crypto exchange fails, that is when we will see that crypto exchange likely close up shop (fail). There will be no court proceedings to get your cash and/or cryptos back from banks and crypto exchanges due to a financial crisis of that magnitude. I suppose you could TRY to get as many of your cryptos back in a long drawn out court proceeding but it will take many years to get your coins back. Also, you would only get a fraction of your coins back in the end. Many will not get any of their coins back. Many will have lost everything!
Now you see WHY I've been saying you need to get your crypto OFF exchanges WHILE YOU STILL CAN. The actual real value of those cryptos will not be realized until AFTER the collapse of the FIAT monetary system has completed. Which means we will have to wait several months after the collapse before we finally see the real value of DECENTRALIZED crypto currencies. I suppose only those who actually "believe" in DECENTRALIZED crypto currencies will be willing to hold on to those cryptos while watching the corrupt FIAT financial system crumble down around them.
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If you begin to see your crypto exchange label several coins as "Under Maintenance" in regard to trying to WITHDRAW those particular coins from the exchange, you seriously need to consider selling those coins for another coin that is NOT "Under Maintenance" to withdraw from the exchange. If an exchange has a LOT of coin wallets "Under Maintenance," that is a strong sign they do not have the actual coins on the exchange to cover withdrawal requests.
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Let us hope TODAY is the last day for a while to "shake out" weak hands in the DJI, S&P 500, NASDAQ, etc... before taking it back up to near all time high or higher highs. Meaning, it's POSSIBLE reducing the rate by 1.5% to 0.25% and beginning QE-5 that we might find fuel for the markets to reverse back to the upside. Which in turn would keep the banks alive a little longer. Only time will tell...
It's still important to consider taking your coins off exchange and be willing to HODL for quite a while. At least take 75 percent of your crypto capital OFF exchange to avoid taking a potential 100% loss. I'm sharing my opinion to help you. If I had my own self interest in mind, I would NOT tell you to take at least 75 percent of your coins OFF exchanges.
We still have a CHANCE for the equities markets and crypto markets to reverse back to the upside. We simply need to see if the reduction in interest rates and QE-5 is able to re-fuel the markets as in times past. We MIGHT see a reversal in the equities markets begin in the later half of the trading day or by Wednesday this week.
It's still important to consider taking your coins off exchange and be willing to HODL for quite a while. At least take 75 percent of your crypto capital OFF exchange to avoid taking a potential 100% loss. I'm sharing my opinion to help you. If I had my own self interest in mind, I would NOT tell you to take at least 75 percent of your coins OFF exchanges.
We still have a CHANCE for the equities markets and crypto markets to reverse back to the upside. We simply need to see if the reduction in interest rates and QE-5 is able to re-fuel the markets as in times past. We MIGHT see a reversal in the equities markets begin in the later half of the trading day or by Wednesday this week.
Benzer Fikirler
Now, I MUST get back to corporate taxes...
Later...