Is tether a black swan? Discussing Bitcoin price action

Though the tether news is scary and I personally cut, price action hasn't really confirmed much. I view tether as a black swan, but the market hasn't really shared that view thus far.

I'm using the ascending Triangle on the 3D as my guide.

Bull case: 3 day Close above 5470 confirms w/ a target of 6150

Bear case: Close below 4990 and busts w/ a target of 4350

This is not investment advice. I am sharing to seek comments and insight from others. Thanks.