BITCOIN - Lets Get Bearish 😄

BTC here could still have a minor bounce, but whether it does or doesn't is now somewhat Irrelevant I think - if it does bounce it will probably be quite weak so now to have a look again and a longer term projection and where more significant BTC bottoms may be found.

And so it looks to me a high probability that the recent upthrust was a connective upthrust, and due to this BTC should have another leg down either equidistant in ratio of phi related.

On the chart I have drawn one possible scenario. I have said for a long time that I think this bear market / correction will be of higher degree than previous i.e. a supercycle and so this is a projection based on that.

However once the bear market is fully underway just as with the bulls, the bears will become overconfident, and I was also in this boat previously, but my goal here is to become the best chartist not protect the most fragile ego with bold projections that never come to pass. I actually missed the start of the previous bull cycle in this way, but also I had decided I would not play my hand differently to the experience around me as I'd only been charting a year at that point and was somewhat clueless.

Anyhow Tyler Jenks and others were wrong, the chartist that I learned elliott wave, fibs and other tricks from was very wrong and Tone Vays although looking more like he should be in some fast car hollywood film was right.

The point is that the psychology I think is just as important as the work on the chart and so I endeavour to keep an open mind - not just boast a target that will never get hit and although plenty of bulls have thought that is what I'm doing, 20K was always somewhat modest imo.

And I'm starting to see it already; chartless humpty dumpties now coming out with ultra bold targets 13K 9K 4K etc and also claiming that they've had those targets a while. It is a fascinating psychology in trading.

So this is why although I have my supercycle count I also am keeping an open mind that there may not be another wave down to take BTC to trend lower than the 200WMA for the first time. There is a chance BTC does not do supercyles and we have yet to see one, so I think its important to temper that judgement.

However, BTC has also not seen an index bear market and I have that in my mind also - and a bear market is coming - oh yes it is. There may be some drift or it may fall here but a significant and volatile correction will come and there is also the possibility that crypto will experience a complete washout.

And if that happens it will be quite funny to look back at my 20K target and think of the angry chest thumping hodlers if BTC does have a major implosion - but that is the way with bubbles. And thats the million $ question - is BTC in a bubble and is it about to pop ? And if you want my best guess I'd say yes, but only if indexes allow. We will see.

So essentially I have 2 scenarios for now.

1) Standard bear market. BTC wicks through and rebounds from the 200WMA sometime later this year, hits 20K, maybe down to 16K perhaps into start 2023.

2) Washout and ??? 10K maybe, or could even be much lower.

Number 2 is why I dont buy based on hope, ego or laziness. If you buy based on any of those then good luck you are going to need it. I might even call these "the 3 trading sins."

And you might find it strange for me to say this but following without work = laziness. Following can get you so far but in the end there is nothing better than doing your own work because when you follow you make a lot of assumptions about the person or group you are following and most likely those assumptions will be wrong. That said you can of course learn from following, work and make what you learned your own.

And there was one troll here I wont bother to say his name, but he was a real billy-big-balls; asserting that he doesnt like the "nerd" aspect of charting and he'd rather delegate. But really what could be more dumb than delegating the control of your money to a stranger 😅. And btw for anyone that is in signals groups - they just use harmonic patterns and get alerts when to dish them up to you. So they could be high as a kite playing computer games for all you know with you funding their "lifestyle" as they dish up automated signals to you. Its a great idea (signals, not getting high), because so many reside in those "sins" and these guys make a massive profit from it. Vince for example - what a genius, I'd love to shake his hand. Also MarkPMarkets with 6 screens in the background. These guys know craft, they know how to sell.

Also worth noting is that anyone that uses money is effectively a trader. If you're a farmer using money and you have a plentiful harvest, make a lot of money, but the national currency gets washed out and so do you, well its a very harsh lesson but it was your due diligence to have an awareness of the stability of the money you used.

Anyhow I digress.

And as I'm having a bit of a ramble, for anyone thats still reading I had thought to make my own group as I was gunning to become a pro trader and I thought a group could be a pleasant additional and essentially passive income. And I wont go into personals much however I'm on a different path now and just make these posts for fun, but thats ok you get my good and bad calls for free 😄. And you never know maybe one day i will make a group where i can go deeper into TA for aspiring chartists with video and whatnot, but for now I'm focused on other things.

Well thats enough rambles for today and see you at 20K.

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Just to add this 2W chart still with almost a week to go but just to show that currently it is engulfing and if it ends the week here - then BTC is really done. We'll see.

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Comments, charts, on chain analytics, fundamental consideration, signals group aficionados - all welcome.

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Storm Eunace is passing here in the UK and hopefully a few of you liked the long posts.

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Looks like SPX is reversing at the 1:1 as described in previous thread, so we may see some sort of bounce from BTC and ALTS, but I wont be trading alts in these conditions, i'll just patiently wait from here for BTC to find a low.

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Also incoming death cross if SPX doesn't get moving upward fast.