BTC/USD: A Study Through Time Cycles

Hello Traders 👋

This is a small attempt to analyze the BTC/USD through the lens of historical time cycles.

I can observe, on this monthly log chart, a 4 year correction cycle -- 2014, 2018 and now in 2022

Previous corrections:

2014
Dip = -86%

2018
Dip = -84%


Current Correction:

2022
Dip so far = -74%

The previous bear markets ended with a dip of around 80%. This time it made a double top in the later half of 2021 and has already slashed 74% from the top so far. Does that mean there is still room for 5-10% correction?

If we look at the chart June 2019 highs were at around 13880 levels. So this area acted as resistance. This area also coincides with our 80% correction cycle which is at around 13800. This area of resistance could become a potential support zone in case of further dip.

But before reaching at any final conclusion, one has to observe the price action at above mentioned zones on a lower timeframe, say daily. The price often builds a horizontal cause (accumulation) before revealing vertical results. So its better to wait for some accumulation before getting into buy mode.

I hope this was helpful. Thanks for reading 👍