AAPL setting up for another ER breakout?

6 Mar 2015

After the last couple of ER breakouts, the price has hit a temporary top and consolidates, pulling back to the major trendline. It looks like the same thing is happening now. Depending on the angle of the decline, $118 or so could prove a great entry point just before the next blowout ER. That price would give AAPL a P/E around 15 depending on EPS.

I believe the next quarter breakout will be fueled by an updated buyback policy as is expected in April and Chinese New Year's sales. If revenue in China increased 70% last quarter, I would expect a comparable year over year increase this quarter on account of the holiday and Chinese consumer's inclination to buy luxury brands. Considering the iPhone 6's success in China, it should see significant demand during this period.

Also worth mentioning is the iPhone's supply/demand balance last quarter which was never met. So, there was still pent up demand at the beginning of this quarter. This wasn't so in the previous Q1.

All of these things point to another blowout quarter and chart breakout.