Will AAPL stay in this purple channel, or break out?

I'll admit, I am having a hard time predicting the market with this high volatility. My current guess is that we are heading down, but perhaps not before bouncing off the top of a descending channel. For AAPL, I have drawn this with a dotted purple line.

If AAPL breaks above the red line (and the dotted purple channel) I will change my position from short to neutral.