GaussianDistributionLibrary "GaussianDistribution"
This library defines a custom type `distr` representing a Gaussian (or other statistical) distribution.
It provides methods to calculate key statistical moments and scores, including mean, median, mode, standard deviation, variance, skewness, kurtosis, and Z-scores.
This library is useful for analyzing probability distributions in financial data.
Disclaimer:
I am not a mathematician, but I have implemented this library to the best of my understanding and capacity. Please be indulgent as I tried to translate statistical concepts into code as accurately as possible. Feedback, suggestions, and corrections are welcome to improve the reliability and robustness of this library.
mean(source, length)
Calculate the mean (average) of the distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
Returns: Mean (μ)
stdev(source, length)
Calculate the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
Returns: Standard deviation (σ)
skewness(source, length, mean, stdev)
Calculate the skewness (γ₁) of the distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
@return Skewness (γ₁)
skewness(source, length)
Overloaded skewness to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Skewness (γ₁)
mode(mean, stdev, skewness)
Estimate mode - Most frequent value in the distribution (approximation based on skewness)
Parameters:
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
skewness (float) : the skewness (γ₁) of the distribution
@return Mode
mode(source, length)
Overloaded mode to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Mode
median(mean, stdev, skewness)
Estimate median - Middle value of the distribution (approximation)
Parameters:
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
skewness (float) : the skewness (γ₁) of the distribution
@return Median
median(source, length)
Overloaded median to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Median
variance(stdev)
Calculate variance (σ²) - Square of the standard deviation
Parameters:
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
@return Variance (σ²)
variance(source, length)
Overloaded variance to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Variance (σ²)
kurtosis(source, length, mean, stdev)
Calculate kurtosis (γ₂) - Degree of "tailedness" in the distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
@return Kurtosis (γ₂)
kurtosis(source, length)
Overloaded kurtosis to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Kurtosis (γ₂)
normal_score(source, mean, stdev)
Calculate Z-score (standard score) assuming a normal distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
@return Z-Score
normal_score(source, length)
Overloaded normal_score to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Z-Score
non_normal_score(source, mean, stdev, skewness, kurtosis)
Calculate adjusted Z-score considering skewness and kurtosis
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
skewness (float) : the skewness (γ₁) of the distribution
kurtosis (float) : the "tailedness" in the distribution
@return Z-Score
non_normal_score(source, length)
Overloaded non_normal_score to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Z-Score
method init(this)
Initialize all statistical fields of the `distr` type
Namespace types: distr
Parameters:
this (distr)
method init(this, source, length)
Overloaded initializer to set source and length
Namespace types: distr
Parameters:
this (distr)
source (float)
length (int)
distr
Custom type to represent a Gaussian distribution
Fields:
source (series float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (series int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
mode (series float) : Most frequent value in the distribution
median (series float) : Middle value separating the greater and lesser halves of the distribution
mean (series float) : μ (1st central moment) - Average of the distribution
stdev (series float) : σ or standard deviation (square root of the variance) - Measure of dispersion
variance (series float) : σ² (2nd central moment) - Squared standard deviation
skewness (series float) : γ₁ (3rd central moment) - Asymmetry of the distribution
kurtosis (series float) : γ₂ (4th central moment) - Degree of "tailedness" relative to a normal distribution
normal_score (series float) : Z-score assuming normal distribution
non_normal_score (series float) : Adjusted Z-score considering skewness and kurtosis
Zscore
Sharpe Ratio Z-ScoreThis indicator calculates the Sharpe Ratio and its Z-Score , which are used to evaluate the risk-adjusted return of an asset over a given period. The Sharpe Ratio is computed using the average return and the standard deviation of returns, while the Z-Score standardizes this ratio to assess how far the current Sharpe Ratio deviates from its historical average.
The Sharpe Ratio is a measure of how much return an investment has generated relative to the risk it has taken. In the context of this script, the risk-free rate is assumed to be 0, but in real applications, it would typically be the return on a safe investment, like a Treasury bond. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates that the investment's returns are higher compared to its risk, making it a more favorable investment. Conversely, a lower Sharpe Ratio suggests that the investment may not be worth the risk.
Calculation:
Daily Returns Calculation: The script calculates the daily return of the asset. This measures the percentage change in the asset’s closing price from one period to the next.
Sharpe Ratio Calculation: The Sharpe Ratio is calculated by taking the average daily return and dividing it by the standard deviation of the returns, then multiplying by the square root of the period length.
Usage:
Traders and Investors can use the Sharpe Ratio to evaluate how well the asset is compensating for risk. A high Sharpe Ratio indicates a high return per unit of risk, whereas a low or negative Sharpe Ratio suggests poor risk-adjusted returns. In overbought times, an asset would have high/positive returns per unit of risk. In oversold times, an asset would have low/negative returns per unit of risk.
The Z-Score provides a way to compare the current Sharpe Ratio to its historical distribution, offering a more standardized view of how extreme or typical the current ratio is.
Positive Z-score: Indicates that the asset's return is significantly lower than its risk, suggesting potential oversold conditions.
Negative Z-score: Indicates that the asset's return is significantly higher than its risk, suggesting potential overbought conditions.
Red Zone (-3 to -2): Strong overbought conditions.
Green Zone (2 to 3): Strong oversold conditions.
Sharpe Ratio Limitations:
While the Sharpe Ratio is widely used to evaluate risk-adjusted returns, it has its limitations.
Fat Tails: It assumes that returns are normally distributed and does not account for extreme events or "fat tails" in the return distribution. This can be problematic for assets like cryptocurrencies, which may experience large, sudden price swings that skew the return distribution.
Single Risk Factor: The Sharpe Ratio only considers standard deviation (total volatility) as a measure of risk, ignoring other types of risks like skewness or kurtosis, which may also impact an asset’s performance.
Time Frame Sensitivity: The accuracy of the Sharpe Ratio and its Z-Score is heavily influenced by the time frame chosen for the calculation. A longer period may smooth out short-term fluctuations, while a shorter period might be more sensitive to recent volatility.
Overbought and Oversold Zones: The script marks overbought and oversold conditions based on the Z-Score, but this is not a guarantee of market reversal. It’s important to combine this tool with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis for a more comprehensive market evaluation.
Volatility: The Sharpe Ratio and Z-Score depend on the volatility (standard deviation) of the asset’s returns. For highly volatile assets, such as cryptocurrencies, the Sharpe Ratio may not fully capture the true risk or may be misleading if the volatility is transient.
Doesn't Account for Downside Risk: The Sharpe Ratio treats upside and downside volatility equally, which may not reflect how investors perceive risk. Some investors may be more concerned with downside risk, which the Sharpe Ratio does not distinguish from upside fluctuations.
Important Considerations:
The Sharpe Ratio should not be used in isolation. While it provides valuable insights into risk-adjusted returns, it is important to combine it with other performance and risk indicators to form a more comprehensive market evaluation. Relying solely on the Sharpe Ratio may lead to misleading conclusions, particularly in volatile or non-normally distributed markets.
When integrated into a broader investment strategy, the Sharpe Ratio can help traders and investors better assess the risk-return profile of an asset, identifying periods of potential overperformance or underperformance. However, it should be used alongside other tools to ensure more informed decision-making, especially in highly fluctuating markets.
SuperATR 7-Step Profit - Strategy [presentTrading] Long time no see!
█ Introduction and How It Is Different
The SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy is a multi-layered trading approach that integrates adaptive Average True Range (ATR) calculations with momentum-based trend detection. What sets this strategy apart is its sophisticated 7-step take-profit mechanism, which combines four ATR-based exit levels and three fixed percentage levels. This hybrid approach allows traders to dynamically adjust to market volatility while systematically capturing profits in both long and short market positions.
Traditional trading strategies often rely on static indicators or single-layered exit strategies, which may not adapt well to changing market conditions. The SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy addresses this limitation by:
- Using Adaptive ATR: Enhances the standard ATR by making it responsive to current market momentum.
- Incorporating Momentum-Based Trend Detection: Identifies stronger trends with higher probability of continuation.
- Employing a Multi-Step Take-Profit System: Allows for gradual profit-taking at predetermined levels, optimizing returns while minimizing risk.
BTCUSD 6hr Performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The strategy revolves around detecting strong market trends and capitalizing on them using an adaptive ATR and momentum indicators. Below is a detailed breakdown of each component of the strategy.
🔶 1. True Range Calculation with Enhanced Volatility Detection
The True Range (TR) measures market volatility by considering the most significant price movements. The enhanced TR is calculated as:
TR = Max
Where:
High and Low are the current bar's high and low prices.
Previous Close is the closing price of the previous bar.
Abs denotes the absolute value.
Max selects the maximum value among the three calculations.
🔶 2. Momentum Factor Calculation
To make the ATR adaptive, the strategy incorporates a Momentum Factor (MF), which adjusts the ATR based on recent price movements.
Momentum = Close - Close
Stdev_Close = Standard Deviation of Close over n periods
Normalized_Momentum = Momentum / Stdev_Close (if Stdev_Close ≠ 0)
Momentum_Factor = Abs(Normalized_Momentum)
Where:
Close is the current closing price.
n is the momentum_period, a user-defined input (default is 7).
Standard Deviation measures the dispersion of closing prices over n periods.
Abs ensures the momentum factor is always positive.
🔶 3. Adaptive ATR Calculation
The Adaptive ATR (AATR) adjusts the traditional ATR based on the Momentum Factor, making it more responsive during volatile periods and smoother during consolidation.
Short_ATR = SMA(True Range, short_period)
Long_ATR = SMA(True Range, long_period)
Adaptive_ATR = /
Where:
SMA is the Simple Moving Average.
short_period and long_period are user-defined inputs (defaults are 3 and 7, respectively).
🔶 4. Trend Strength Calculation
The strategy quantifies the strength of the trend to filter out weak signals.
Price_Change = Close - Close
ATR_Multiple = Price_Change / Adaptive_ATR (if Adaptive_ATR ≠ 0)
Trend_Strength = SMA(ATR_Multiple, n)
🔶 5. Trend Signal Determination
If (Short_MA > Long_MA) AND (Trend_Strength > Trend_Strength_Threshold):
Trend_Signal = 1 (Strong Uptrend)
Elif (Short_MA < Long_MA) AND (Trend_Strength < -Trend_Strength_Threshold):
Trend_Signal = -1 (Strong Downtrend)
Else:
Trend_Signal = 0 (No Clear Trend)
🔶 6. Trend Confirmation with Price Action
Adaptive_ATR_SMA = SMA(Adaptive_ATR, atr_sma_period)
If (Trend_Signal == 1) AND (Close > Short_MA) AND (Adaptive_ATR > Adaptive_ATR_SMA):
Trend_Confirmed = True
Elif (Trend_Signal == -1) AND (Close < Short_MA) AND (Adaptive_ATR > Adaptive_ATR_SMA):
Trend_Confirmed = True
Else:
Trend_Confirmed = False
Local Performance
🔶 7. Multi-Step Take-Profit Mechanism
The strategy employs a 7-step take-profit system
█ Trade Direction
The SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy is designed to work in both long and short market conditions. By identifying strong uptrends and downtrends, it allows traders to capitalize on price movements in either direction.
Long Trades: Initiated when the market shows strong upward momentum and the trend is confirmed.
Short Trades: Initiated when the market exhibits strong downward momentum and the trend is confirmed.
█ Usage
To implement the SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy:
1. Configure the Strategy Parameters:
- Adjust the short_period, long_period, and momentum_period to match the desired sensitivity.
- Set the trend_strength_threshold to control how strong a trend must be before acting.
2. Set Up the Multi-Step Take-Profit Levels:
- Define ATR multipliers and fixed percentage levels according to risk tolerance and profit goals.
- Specify the percentage of the position to close at each level.
3. Apply the Strategy to a Chart:
- Use the strategy on instruments and timeframes where it has been tested and optimized.
- Monitor the positions and adjust parameters as needed based on performance.
4. Backtest and Optimize:
- Utilize TradingView's backtesting features to evaluate historical performance.
- Adjust the default settings to optimize for different market conditions.
█ Default Settings
Understanding default settings is crucial for optimal performance.
Short Period (3): Affects the responsiveness of the short-term MA.
Effect: Lower values increase sensitivity but may produce more false signals.
Long Period (7): Determines the trend baseline.
Effect: Higher values reduce noise but may delay signals.
Momentum Period (7): Influences adaptive ATR and trend strength.
Effect: Shorter periods react quicker to price changes.
Trend Strength Threshold (0.5): Filters out weaker trends.
Effect: Higher thresholds yield fewer but stronger signals.
ATR Multipliers: Set distances for ATR-based exits.
Effect: Larger multipliers aim for bigger moves but may reduce hit rate.
Fixed TP Levels (%): Control profit-taking on smaller moves.
Effect: Adjusting these levels affects how quickly profits are realized.
Exit Percentages: Determine how much of the position is closed at each TP level.
Effect: Higher percentages reduce exposure faster, affecting risk and reward.
Adjusting these variables allows you to tailor the strategy to different market conditions and personal risk preferences.
By integrating adaptive indicators and a multi-tiered exit strategy, the SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy offers a versatile tool for traders seeking to navigate varying market conditions effectively. Understanding and adjusting the key parameters enables traders to harness the full potential of this strategy.
Savitzky-Golay Z-Score [BackQuant]Savitzky-Golay Z-Score
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score is a powerful trading indicator that combines the precision of the Savitzky-Golay filter with the statistical strength of the Z-Score. This advanced indicator is designed to detect trend shifts, identify overbought or oversold conditions, and highlight potential divergences in the market, providing traders with a unique edge in detecting momentum changes and trend reversals.
Core Concept: Savitzky-Golay Filter
The Savitzky-Golay filter is a widely-used smoothing technique that preserves important signal features such as peak detection while filtering out noise. In this indicator, the filter is applied to price data (default set to HLC3) to smooth out volatility and produce a cleaner trend line. By specifying the window size and polynomial degree, traders can fine-tune the degree of smoothing to match their preferred trading style or market conditions.
Z-Score: Measuring Deviation
The Z-Score is a statistical measure that indicates how far the current price is from its mean in terms of standard deviations. In trading, the Z-Score can be used to identify extreme price moves that are likely to revert or continue trending. A positive Z-Score means the price is above the mean, while a negative Z-Score indicates the price is below the mean.
This script calculates the Z-Score based on the Savitzky-Golay filtered price, enabling traders to detect moments when the price is diverging from its typical range and may present an opportunity for a trade.
Long and Short Conditions
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score generates clear long and short signals based on the Z-Score value:
Long Signals : When the Z-Score is positive, indicating the price is above its smoothed mean, a long signal is generated. The color of the bars turns green, signaling upward momentum.
Short Signals : When the Z-Score is negative, indicating the price is below its smoothed mean, a short signal is generated. The bars turn red, signaling downward momentum.
These signals allow traders to follow the prevailing trend with confidence, using statistical backing to avoid false signals from short-term volatility.
Standard Deviation Levels and Extreme Levels
This indicator includes several features to help visualize overbought and oversold conditions:
Standard Deviation Levels: The script plots horizontal lines at +1, +2, -1, and -2 standard deviations. These levels provide a reference for how far the current price is from the mean, allowing traders to quickly identify when the price is moving into extreme territory.
Extreme Levels: Additional extreme levels at +3 and +4 (and their negative counterparts) are plotted to highlight areas where the price is highly likely to revert. These extreme levels provide important insight into market conditions that are far outside the norm, signaling caution or potential reversal zones.
The indicator also adapts the color shading of these extreme zones based on the Z-Score’s strength. For example, the area between +3 and +4 is shaded with a stronger color when the Z-Score approaches these values, giving a visual representation of market pressure.
Divergences: Detecting Hidden and Regular Signals
A key feature of the Savitzky-Golay Z-Score is its ability to detect bullish and bearish divergences, both regular and hidden:
Regular Bullish Divergence: This occurs when the price makes a lower low while the Z-Score forms a higher low. It signals that bearish momentum is weakening, and a bullish reversal could be near.
Hidden Bullish Divergence: This divergence occurs when the price makes a higher low while the Z-Score forms a lower low. It signals that bullish momentum may continue after a temporary pullback.
Regular Bearish Divergence: This occurs when the price makes a higher high while the Z-Score forms a lower high, signaling that bullish momentum is weakening and a bearish reversal may be near.
Hidden Bearish Divergence: This divergence occurs when the price makes a lower high while the Z-Score forms a higher high, indicating that bearish momentum may continue after a temporary rally.
These divergences are plotted directly on the chart, making it easier for traders to spot when the price and momentum are out of sync and when a potential reversal may occur.
Customization and Visualization
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score offers a range of customization options to fit different trading styles:
Window Size and Polynomial Degree: Adjust the window size and polynomial degree of the Savitzky-Golay filter to control how much smoothing is applied to the price data.
Z-Score Lookback Period: Set the lookback period for calculating the Z-Score, allowing traders to fine-tune the sensitivity to short-term or long-term price movements.
Display Options: Choose whether to display standard deviation levels, extreme levels, and divergence labels on the chart.
Bar Color: Color the price bars based on trend direction, with green for bullish trends and red for bearish trends, allowing traders to easily visualize the current momentum.
Divergences: Enable or disable divergence detection, and adjust the lookback periods for pivots used to detect regular and hidden divergences.
Alerts and Automation
To ensure you never miss an important signal, the indicator includes built-in alert conditions for the following events:
Positive Z-Score (Long Signal): Triggers an alert when the Z-Score crosses above zero, indicating a potential buying opportunity.
Negative Z-Score (Short Signal): Triggers an alert when the Z-Score crosses below zero, signaling a potential short opportunity.
Shifting Momentum: Alerts when the Z-Score is shifting up or down, providing early warning of changing market conditions.
These alerts can be configured to notify you via email, SMS, or app notification, allowing you to stay on top of the market without having to constantly monitor the chart.
Trading Applications
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score is a versatile tool that can be applied across multiple trading strategies:
Trend Following: By smoothing the price and calculating the Z-Score, this indicator helps traders follow the prevailing trend while avoiding false signals from short-term volatility.
Mean Reversion: The Z-Score highlights moments when the price is far from its mean, helping traders identify overbought or oversold conditions and capitalize on potential reversals.
Divergence Trading: Regular and hidden divergences between the Z-Score and price provide early warning of trend reversals, allowing traders to enter trades at opportune moments.
Final Thoughts
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score is an advanced statistical tool designed to provide a clearer view of market trends and momentum. By applying the Savitzky-Golay filter and Z-Score analysis, this indicator reduces noise and highlights key areas where the market may reverse or accelerate, giving traders a significant edge in understanding price behavior.
Whether you’re a trend follower or a reversal trader, this indicator offers the flexibility and insights you need to navigate complex markets with confidence.
Memecoin TrackerMemecoin Z-Score Tracker with Buy/Sell Table - Technical Explanation
How it Works:
This indicator calculates the Z-scores of various memecoins based on their price movements, using historical funding rates across multiple exchanges. A Z-score measures the deviation of the current price from its moving average, expressed in standard deviations. This provides insight into whether a coin is overbought (positive Z-score) or oversold (negative Z-score) relative to its recent history.
Key Components:
- Z-Score Calculation
- The lookback period is dynamically adjusted based on the chart’s timeframe to ensure consistency across different time intervals:
- For lower timeframes (e.g., minutes), the base lookback period is scaled to match approximately 240 minutes.
- For daily and higher timeframes, the base lookback period is fixed (e.g., 14 bars).
Memecoin Selection:
The indicator tracks several popular memecoins, including DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, FLOKI, and others.
Funding rates are fetched from exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and MEXC using the request.security() function, ensuring accurate real-time price data.
Thresholds for Buy/Sell Signals:
Users can set custom Z-score thresholds for buy (oversold) and sell (overbought) signals:
Default upper threshold: 2.5 (indicates overbought condition).
Default lower threshold: -2.5 (indicates oversold condition).
When a memecoin’s Z-score crosses above or below these thresholds, it signals potential buy or sell conditions.
Buy/Sell Table:
A table with two columns (BUY and SELL) is dynamically populated with memecoins that are currently oversold (buy signal) or overbought (sell signal).
Each column can hold up to 20 entries, providing a clear overview of current market opportunities.
Visual Feedback:
The Z-scores of each memecoin are plotted as a line on the chart, with color-coded feedback:
Red for overbought (Z-score > upper threshold),
Green for oversold (Z-score < lower threshold),
Other colors indicate neutral conditions.
Horizontal lines representing the upper and lower thresholds are plotted for reference.
How to Use It:
Adjust Thresholds:
You can modify the upper and lower Z-score thresholds in the settings to customize sensitivity. Lower thresholds will increase the likelihood of triggering buy/sell signals for smaller price deviations, while higher thresholds will focus on more extreme conditions.
View Real-Time Signals:
The table shows which memecoins are currently oversold (buy column) or overbought (sell column), updating dynamically as price data changes. Traders can monitor this table to identify trading opportunities quickly.
Use with Different Timeframes:
The Z-score lookback period adjusts automatically based on the chart's timeframe, making this indicator suitable for intraday and long-term traders.
Use shorter timeframes (e.g., 1-minute, 5-minute charts) for faster signals, while longer timeframes (e.g., daily, weekly) may yield more stable, trend-based signals.
Who It Is For:
Short-Term Traders: Those looking to capitalize on short-term price imbalances (e.g., day traders, scalpers) can use this indicator to identify quick buy/sell opportunities as memecoins oscillate around their moving averages.
Swing Traders: Swing traders can use the Z-score tracker to identify overbought or oversold conditions across multiple memecoins and ride the reversals back toward equilibrium.
Crypto Enthusiasts and Memecoin Investors: Anyone involved in the volatile memecoin market can use this tool to better time entries and exits based on market extremes.
This indicator is for traders seeking quantitative analysis of price extremes in memecoins. By tracking the Z-scores across multiple coins and dynamically updating buy/sell opportunities in a table, it provides a systematic approach to identifying trade setups.
Outlier changes alertAn indicator that calculates click (price change), percentage change, and Z-score changes while displaying outliers based on defined ranges.
Outlier Detection:
Mark outliers (for price, percentage, Z-score) based on user-defined thresholds. For example, any price movement exceeding a certain Z-score or percentage change could be marked as an outlier and displayed on chart.
Indicator Overview:
1. Click (Price Change):
Calculate the absolute price change from one period to another (e.g., from the current closing price to the previous closing price).
2. Percentage Change:
Calculate the percentage price change over a specific period, showing how much the price has changed in relative terms compared to the previous price.
3. Z-Score:
Compute the Z-score to standardize the price change relative to its historical average and standard deviation. The Z-score helps in detecting whether a price movement is an outlier or falls within a normal range of volatility.
HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator by Erika BarkerThis indicator is a modified version of SteverSteves's original work, enhanced by Erika Barker. It visually represents asset price movements in terms of standard deviations from a Hull Moving Average (HMA), commonly known as a Z-Score.
Key Features:
Z-Score Calculation: Measures how many standard deviations the current price is from its HMA.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): This moving average provides a more responsive baseline for Z-Score calculations.
Flexible Display: Offers both area and candlestick visualization options for the Z-Score.
Probability Zones: Color-coded areas showing the statistical likelihood of prices based on their Z-Score.
Dynamic Price Level Labels: Displays actual price levels corresponding to Z-Score values.
Z-Table: An optional table showing the probability of occurrence for different Z-Score ranges.
Standard Deviation Lines: Horizontal lines at each standard deviation level for easy reference.
How It Works:
The indicator calculates the Z-Score by comparing the current price to its HMA and dividing by the standard deviation. This Z-Score is then plotted on a separate pane below the main chart.
Green areas/candles: Indicate prices above the HMA (positive Z-Score)
Red areas/candles: Indicate prices below the HMA (negative Z-Score)
Color-coded zones:
Green: Within 1 standard deviation (high probability)
Yellow: Between 1 and 2 standard deviations (medium probability)
Red: Beyond 2 standard deviations (low probability)
The HMA line (white) shows the trend of the Z-Score itself, offering insight into whether the asset is becoming more or less volatile over time.
Customization Options:
Adjust lookback periods for Z-Score and HMA calculations
Toggle between area and candlestick display
Show/hide probability fills, Z-Table, HMA line, and standard deviation bands
Customize text color and decimal rounding for price levels
Interpretation:
This indicator helps traders identify potential overbought or oversold conditions based on statistical probabilities. Extreme Z-Score values (beyond ±2 or ±3) often suggest a higher likelihood of mean reversion, while consistent Z-Scores in one direction may indicate a strong trend.
By combining the Z-Score with the HMA and probability zones, traders can gain a nuanced understanding of price movements relative to recent trends and their statistical significance.
Advanced Keltner Channel/Oscillator [MyTradingCoder]This indicator combines a traditional Keltner Channel overlay with an oscillator, providing a comprehensive view of price action, trend, and momentum. The core of this indicator is its advanced ATR calculation, which uses statistical methods to provide a more robust measure of volatility.
Starting with the overlay component, the center line is created using a biquad low-pass filter applied to the chosen price source. This provides a smoother representation of price than a simple moving average. The upper and lower channel lines are then calculated using the statistically derived ATR, with an additional set of mid-lines between the center and outer lines. This creates a more nuanced view of price action within the channel.
The color coding of the center line provides an immediate visual cue of the current price momentum. As the price moves up relative to the ATR, the line shifts towards the bullish color, and vice versa for downward moves. This color gradient allows for quick assessment of the current market sentiment.
The oscillator component transforms the channel into a different perspective. It takes the price's position within the channel and maps it to either a normalized -100 to +100 scale or displays it in price units, depending on your settings. This oscillator essentially shows where the current price is in relation to the channel boundaries.
The oscillator includes two key lines: the main oscillator line and a signal line. The main line represents the current position within the channel, smoothed by an exponential moving average (EMA). The signal line is a further smoothed version of the oscillator line. The interaction between these two lines can provide trading signals, similar to how MACD is often used.
When the oscillator line crosses above the signal line, it might indicate bullish momentum, especially if this occurs in the lower half of the oscillator range. Conversely, the oscillator line crossing below the signal line could signal bearish momentum, particularly if it happens in the upper half of the range.
The oscillator's position relative to its own range is also informative. Values near the top of the range (close to 100 if normalized) suggest that price is near the upper Keltner Channel band, indicating potential overbought conditions. Values near the bottom of the range (close to -100 if normalized) suggest proximity to the lower band, potentially indicating oversold conditions.
One of the strengths of this indicator is how the overlay and oscillator work together. For example, if the price is touching the upper band on the overlay, you'd see the oscillator at or near its maximum value. This confluence of signals can provide stronger evidence of overbought conditions. Similarly, the oscillator hitting extremes can draw your attention to price action at the channel boundaries on the overlay.
The mid-lines on both the overlay and oscillator provide additional nuance. On the overlay, price action between the mid-line and outer line might suggest strong but not extreme momentum. On the oscillator, this would correspond to readings in the outer quartiles of the range.
The customizable visual settings allow you to adjust the indicator to your preferences. The glow effects and color coding can make it easier to quickly interpret the current market conditions at a glance.
Overlay Component:
The overlay displays Keltner Channel bands dynamically adapting to market conditions, providing clear visual cues for potential trend reversals, breakouts, and overbought/oversold zones.
The center line is a biquad low-pass filter applied to the chosen price source.
Upper and lower channel lines are calculated using a statistically derived ATR.
Includes mid-lines between the center and outer channel lines.
Color-coded based on price movement relative to the ATR.
Oscillator Component:
The oscillator component complements the overlay, highlighting momentum and potential turning points.
Normalized values make it easy to compare across different assets and timeframes.
Signal line crossovers generate potential buy/sell signals.
Advanced ATR Calculation:
Uses a unique method to compute ATR, incorporating concepts like root mean square (RMS) and z-score clamping.
Provides both an average and mode-based ATR value.
Customizable Visual Settings:
Adjustable colors for bullish and bearish moves, oscillator lines, and channel components.
Options for line width, transparency, and glow effects.
Ability to display overlay, oscillator, or both simultaneously.
Flexible Parameters:
Customizable inputs for channel width multiplier, ATR period, smoothing factors, and oscillator settings.
Adjustable Q factor for the biquad filter.
Key Advantages:
Advanced ATR Calculation: Utilizes a statistical method to generate ATR, ensuring greater responsiveness and accuracy in volatile markets.
Overlay and Oscillator: Provides a comprehensive view of price action, combining trend and momentum analysis.
Customizable: Adjust settings to fine-tune the indicator to your specific needs and trading style.
Visually Appealing: Clear and concise design for easy interpretation.
The ATR (Average True Range) in this indicator is derived using a sophisticated statistical method that differs from the traditional ATR calculation. It begins by calculating the True Range (TR) as the difference between the high and low of each bar. Instead of a simple moving average, it computes the Root Mean Square (RMS) of the TR over the specified period, giving more weight to larger price movements. The indicator then calculates a Z-score by dividing the TR by the RMS, which standardizes the TR relative to recent volatility. This Z-score is clamped to a maximum value (10 in this case) to prevent extreme outliers from skewing the results, and then rounded to a specified number of decimal places (2 in this script).
These rounded Z-scores are collected in an array, keeping track of how many times each value occurs. From this array, two key values are derived: the mode, which is the most frequently occurring Z-score, and the average, which is the weighted average of all Z-scores. These values are then scaled back to price units by multiplying by the RMS.
Now, let's examine how these values are used in the indicator. For the Keltner Channel lines, the mid lines (top and bottom) use the mode of the ATR, representing the most common volatility state. The max lines (top and bottom) use the average of the ATR, incorporating all volatility states, including less common but larger moves. By using the mode for the mid lines and the average for the max lines, the indicator provides a nuanced view of volatility. The mid lines represent the "typical" market state, while the max lines account for less frequent but significant price movements.
For the color coding of the center line, the mode of the ATR is used to normalize the price movement. The script calculates the difference between the current price and the price 'degree' bars ago (default is 2), and then divides this difference by the mode of the ATR. The resulting value is passed through an arctangent function and scaled to a 0-1 range. This scaled value is used to create a color gradient between the bearish and bullish colors.
Using the mode of the ATR for this color coding ensures that the color changes are based on the most typical volatility state of the market. This means that the color will change more quickly in low volatility environments and more slowly in high volatility environments, providing a consistent visual representation of price momentum relative to current market conditions.
Using a good IIR (Infinite Impulse Response) low-pass filter, such as the biquad filter implemented in this indicator, offers significant advantages over simpler moving averages like the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) or other basic moving averages.
At its core, an EMA is indeed a simple, single-pole IIR filter, but it has limitations in terms of its frequency response and phase delay characteristics. The biquad filter, on the other hand, is a two-pole, two-zero filter that provides superior control over the frequency response curve. This allows for a much sharper cutoff between the passband and stopband, meaning it can more effectively separate the signal (in this case, the underlying price trend) from the noise (short-term price fluctuations).
The improved frequency response of a well-designed biquad filter means it can achieve a better balance between smoothness and responsiveness. While an EMA might need a longer period to sufficiently smooth out price noise, potentially leading to more lag, a biquad filter can achieve similar or better smoothing with less lag. This is crucial in financial markets where timely information is vital for making trading decisions.
Moreover, the biquad filter allows for independent control of the cutoff frequency and the Q factor. The Q factor, in particular, is a powerful parameter that affects the filter's resonance at the cutoff frequency. By adjusting the Q factor, users can fine-tune the filter's behavior to suit different market conditions or trading styles. This level of control is simply not available with basic moving averages.
Another advantage of the biquad filter is its superior phase response. In the context of financial data, this translates to more consistent lag across different frequency components of the price action. This can lead to more reliable signals, especially when it comes to identifying trend changes or price reversals.
The computational efficiency of biquad filters is also worth noting. Despite their more complex mathematical foundation, biquad filters can be implemented very efficiently, often requiring only a few operations per sample. This makes them suitable for real-time applications and high-frequency trading scenarios.
Furthermore, the use of a more sophisticated filter like the biquad can help in reducing false signals. The improved noise rejection capabilities mean that minor price fluctuations are less likely to cause unnecessary crossovers or indicator movements, potentially leading to fewer false breakouts or reversal signals.
In the specific context of a Keltner Channel, using a biquad filter for the center line can provide a more stable and reliable basis for the entire indicator. It can help in better defining the overall trend, which is crucial since the Keltner Channel is often used for trend-following strategies. The smoother, yet more responsive center line can lead to more accurate channel boundaries, potentially improving the reliability of overbought/oversold signals and breakout indications.
In conclusion, this advanced Keltner Channel indicator represents a significant evolution in technical analysis tools, combining the power of traditional Keltner Channels with modern statistical methods and signal processing techniques. By integrating a sophisticated ATR calculation, a biquad low-pass filter, and a complementary oscillator component, this indicator offers traders a comprehensive and nuanced view of market dynamics.
The indicator's strength lies in its ability to adapt to varying market conditions, providing clear visual cues for trend identification, momentum assessment, and potential reversal points. The use of statistically derived ATR values for channel construction and the implementation of a biquad filter for the center line result in a more responsive and accurate representation of price action compared to traditional methods.
Furthermore, the dual nature of this indicator – functioning as both an overlay and an oscillator – allows traders to simultaneously analyze price trends and momentum from different perspectives. This multifaceted approach can lead to more informed decision-making and potentially more reliable trading signals.
The high degree of customization available in the indicator's settings enables traders to fine-tune its performance to suit their specific trading styles and market preferences. From adjustable visual elements to flexible parameter inputs, users can optimize the indicator for various trading scenarios and time frames.
Ultimately, while no indicator can predict market movements with certainty, this advanced Keltner Channel provides traders with a powerful tool for market analysis. By offering a more sophisticated approach to measuring volatility, trend, and momentum, it equips traders with valuable insights to navigate the complex world of financial markets. As with any trading tool, it should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and within a well-defined risk management framework to maximize its potential benefits.
Composite Z-Score with Linear Regression Bands [UAlgo]The Composite Z-Score with Linear Regression Bands is a technical indicator designed to provide traders with a comprehensive analysis of price momentum, volatility, and volume. By combining multiple moving averages with slope analysis, volume/volatility compression-expansion metrics, and Z-Score calculations, this indicator aims to highlight potential breakout and breakdown points with high accuracy. The inclusion of linear regression bands further enhances the analysis by providing dynamic support and resistance levels, which adapt to market conditions. This makes the indicator particularly useful in identifying overbought/oversold conditions, volume squeezes, and the overall direction of the trend.
🔶 Key Features
Multi-Length Slope Calculation: The indicator uses multiple Hull Moving Averages (HMA) across various lengths to calculate slope angles, which are then converted into Z-Scores. This helps in capturing both short-term and long-term price momentum.
Volume/Volatility Composite Analysis: By calculating a composite value derived from both volume and volatility, the indicator identifies periods of compression (squeezes) and expansion, which are crucial for detecting potential breakout opportunities.
Linear Regression Bands: The inclusion of dynamic linear regression bands provides traders with adaptive support and resistance levels. These bands are enhanced by the composite value, which adjusts the band width based on market conditions, offering a clearer view of possible price reversals.
Overbought/Oversold Detection: The indicator highlights overbought and oversold conditions by comparing Z-Scores against the upper and lower bounds of the regression bands, which can signal potential reversal points.
Customizable Inputs: Users can customize key parameters such as the lengths of the moving averages, the regression band period, and the number of deviations used for the bands, allowing for flexibility in adapting the indicator to different market environments.
🔶 Interpreting the Indicator
Z-Score Plots: The individual Z-Score plots represent the normalized slope of the Hull Moving Averages over different periods. Positive values indicate upward momentum, while negative values suggest downward momentum. The combined Z-Sum provides a broader view of the overall market momentum.
Composite Value: The composite value is a ratio of volume to volatility, which highlights periods of market compression and expansion. When the composite value rises, it suggests increasing market activity, often preceding a breakout.
Why are we calculating values for multiple lengths?
The Composite Z-Score with Linear Regression Bands indicator employs a multi-timeframe analysis by calculating Z-scores for various moving average lengths. This approach provides a more comprehensive view of market dynamics and helps to identify trends and potential reversals across different timeframes. By considering multiple lengths, we can:
Capture a broader range of market behaviors: Different moving average lengths capture different aspects of price movement. Shorter lengths are more sensitive to recent price changes, while longer lengths provide a smoother representation of the underlying trend.
Reduce the impact of noise: By combining Z-scores from multiple lengths, we can help to filter out some of the noise that can be present in shorter-term data and obtain a more robust signal.
Enhance the reliability of signals: When Z-scores from multiple lengths align, it can increase the confidence in the identified trend or potential reversal. This can help to reduce the likelihood of false signals.
In essence, calculating values for multiple lengths allows the indicator to provide a more nuanced and reliable assessment of market conditions, making it a valuable tool for traders and analysts.
Linear Regression Bands: The central line represents the linear regression of the Z-Sum, while the upper and lower bands represent the dynamic resistance and support levels, respectively. The deviation from the regression line indicates the strength of the current trend. When price moves beyond these bands, it may signal an overbought (above upper band) or oversold (below lower band) condition.
Volume/Volatility Squeeze: When the price moves between the regression bands and the volume/volatility-adjusted bands, the market is in a squeeze. Breakouts from this squeeze can lead to significant price moves, which are indicated by the filling of areas between the Z-Score plots and the bands.
Color Interpretation: The indicator uses color changes to make it easier to interpret the data. Teal colors generally indicate upward momentum or strong conditions, while red suggests downward momentum or weakening conditions. The intensity of the color reflects the strength of the signal.
Overbought/Oversold Signals: The indicator marks potential overbought and oversold conditions when Z-Scores cross above or below the upper and lower regression bands, respectively. These signals are crucial for identifying potential reversal points in the market.
🔶 Disclaimer
Use with Caution: This indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Users should exercise caution and perform their own analysis before making trading decisions based on the indicator's signals.
Not Financial Advice: The information provided by this indicator does not constitute financial advice, and the creator (UAlgo) shall not be held responsible for any trading losses incurred as a result of using this indicator.
Backtesting Recommended: Traders are encouraged to backtest the indicator thoroughly on historical data before using it in live trading to assess its performance and suitability for their trading strategies.
Risk Management: Trading involves inherent risks, and users should implement proper risk management strategies, including but not limited to stop-loss orders and position sizing, to mitigate potential losses.
No Guarantees: The accuracy and reliability of the indicator's signals cannot be guaranteed, as they are based on historical price data and past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Vwap Z-Score with Signals [UAlgo]The "VWAP Z-Score with Signals " is a technical analysis tool designed to help traders identify potential buy and sell signals based on the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and its Z-Score. This indicator calculates the VWAP Z-Score to show how far the current price deviates from the VWAP in terms of standard deviations. It highlights overbought and oversold conditions with visual signals, aiding in the identification of potential market reversals. The tool is customizable, allowing users to adjust parameters for their specific trading needs.
🔶 Features
VWAP Z-Score Calculation: Measures the deviation of the current price from the VWAP using standard deviations.
Customizable Parameters: Allows users to set the length of the VWAP Z-Score calculation and define thresholds for overbought and oversold levels.
Reversal Signals: Provides visual signals when the Z-Score crosses the specified thresholds, indicating potential buy or sell opportunities.
🔶 Usage
Extreme Z-Score values (both positive and negative) highlight significant deviations from the VWAP, useful for identifying potential reversal points.
The indicator provides visual signals when the Z-Score crosses predefined thresholds:
A buy signal (🔼) appears when the Z-Score crosses above the lower threshold, suggesting the price may be oversold and a potential upward reversal.
A sell signal (🔽) appears when the Z-Score crosses below the upper threshold, suggesting the price may be overbought and a potential downward reversal.
These signals can help you identify potential entry and exit points in your trading strategy.
🔶 Disclaimer
The "VWAP Z-Score with Signals " indicator is designed for educational purposes and to assist traders in their technical analysis. It does not guarantee profitable trades and should not be considered as financial advice.
Users should conduct their own research and use this indicator in conjunction with other tools and strategies.
Trading involves significant risk, and it is possible to lose more than your initial investment.
BTC Valuation
The BTC Valuation indicator
is a powerful tool designed to assist traders and analysts in evaluating the current state of Bitcoin's market valuation. By leveraging key moving averages and a logarithmic trendline, this indicator offers valuable insights into potential buying or selling opportunities based on historical price value.
Key Features:
200MA/P (200-day Moving Average to Price Ratio):
Provides a perspective on Bitcoin's long-term trend by comparing the current price to its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
A positive value suggests potential undervaluation, while a negative value may indicate overvaluation.
50MA/P (50-day Moving Average to Price Ratio):
Focuses on short-term trends, offering insights into the relationship between Bitcoin's current price and its 50-day SMA.
Helps traders identify potential bullish or bearish trends in the near term.
LTL/P (Logarithmic TrendLine to Price Ratio):
Incorporates a logarithmic trendline, considering Bitcoin's historical age in days.
Assists in evaluating whether the current price aligns with the long-term logarithmic trend, signaling potential overvaluation or undervaluation.
How to Use:
Z Score Indicator Integration:
The BTC Valuation indicator leverages the Z Score Indicator to score the ratios in a statistical way.
Statistical scoring provides a standardized measure of how far each ratio deviates from the mean, aiding in a more nuanced and objective evaluation.
Z Score Indicator
This BTC Valuation indicator provides a comprehensive view of Bitcoin's valuation dynamics, allowing traders to make informed decisions.
While indicators like BTC Valuation provide valuable insights, it's crucial to remember that no indicator guarantees market predictions.
Traders should use indicators as part of a comprehensive strategy and consider multiple factors before making trading decisions.
Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Exercise caution and continually refine your approach based on market dynamics.
Adaptive Fisherized Z-scoreHello Fellas,
It's time for a new adaptive fisherized indicator of me, where I apply adaptive length and more on a classic indicator.
Today, I chose the Z-score, also called standard score, as indicator of interest.
Special Features
Advanced Smoothing: JMA, T3, Hann Window and Super Smoother
Adaptive Length Algorithms: In-Phase Quadrature, Homodyne Discriminator, Median and Hilbert Transform
Inverse Fisher Transform (IFT)
Signals: Enter Long, Enter Short, Exit Long and Exit Short
Bar Coloring: Presents the trade state as bar colors
Band Levels: Changes the band levels
Decision Making
When you create such a mod you need to think about which concepts are the best to conclude. I decided to take Inverse Fisher Transform instead of normalization to make a version which fits to a fixed scale to avoid the usual distortion created by normalization.
Moreover, I chose JMA, T3, Hann Window and Super Smoother, because JMA and T3 are the bleeding-edge MA's at the moment with the best balance of lag and responsiveness. Additionally, I chose Hann Window and Super Smoother because of their extraordinary smoothing capabilities and because Ehlers favours them.
Furthermore, I decided to choose the half length of the dominant cycle instead of the full dominant cycle to make the indicator more responsive which is very important for a signal emitter like Z-score. Signal emitters always need to be faster or have the same speed as the filters they are combined with.
Usage
The Z-score is a low timeframe scalper which works best during choppy/ranging phases. The direction you should trade is determined by the last trend change. E.g. when the last trend change was from bearish market to bullish market and you are now in a choppy/ranging phase confirmed by e.g. Chop Zone or KAMA slope you want to do long trades.
Interpretation
The Z-score indicator is a momentum indicator which shows the number of standard deviations by which the value of a raw score (price/source) is above or below the mean value of what is being observed or measured. Easily explained, it is almost the same as Bollinger Bands with another visual representation form.
Signals
B -> Buy -> Z-score crosses above lower band
S -> Short -> Z-score crosses below upper band
BE -> Buy Exit -> Z-score crosses above 0
SE -> Sell Exit -> Z-score crosses below 0
If you were reading till here, thank you already. Now, follows a bunch of knowledge for people who don't know the concepts I talk about.
T3
The T3 moving average, short for "Tim Tillson's Triple Exponential Moving Average," is a technical indicator used in financial markets and technical analysis to smooth out price data over a specific period. It was developed by Tim Tillson, a software project manager at Hewlett-Packard, with expertise in Mathematics and Computer Science.
The T3 moving average is an enhancement of the traditional Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and aims to overcome some of its limitations. The primary goal of the T3 moving average is to provide a smoother representation of price trends while minimizing lag compared to other moving averages like Simple Moving Average (SMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), or EMA.
To compute the T3 moving average, it involves a triple smoothing process using exponential moving averages. Here's how it works:
Calculate the first exponential moving average (EMA1) of the price data over a specific period 'n.'
Calculate the second exponential moving average (EMA2) of EMA1 using the same period 'n.'
Calculate the third exponential moving average (EMA3) of EMA2 using the same period 'n.'
The formula for the T3 moving average is as follows:
T3 = 3 * (EMA1) - 3 * (EMA2) + (EMA3)
By applying this triple smoothing process, the T3 moving average is intended to offer reduced noise and improved responsiveness to price trends. It achieves this by incorporating multiple time frames of the exponential moving averages, resulting in a more accurate representation of the underlying price action.
JMA
The Jurik Moving Average (JMA) is a technical indicator used in trading to predict price direction. Developed by Mark Jurik, it’s a type of weighted moving average that gives more weight to recent market data rather than past historical data.
JMA is known for its superior noise elimination. It’s a causal, nonlinear, and adaptive filter, meaning it responds to changes in price action without introducing unnecessary lag. This makes JMA a world-class moving average that tracks and smooths price charts or any market-related time series with surprising agility.
In comparison to other moving averages, such as the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), JMA is known to track fast price movement more accurately. This allows traders to apply their strategies to a more accurate picture of price action.
Inverse Fisher Transform
The Inverse Fisher Transform is a transform used in DSP to alter the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of a signal or in our case of indicators.
The result of using the Inverse Fisher Transform is that the output has a very high probability of being either +1 or –1. This bipolar probability distribution makes the Inverse Fisher Transform ideal for generating an indicator that provides clear buy and sell signals.
Hann Window
The Hann function (aka Hann Window) is named after the Austrian meteorologist Julius von Hann. It is a window function used to perform Hann smoothing.
Super Smoother
The Super Smoother uses a special mathematical process for the smoothing of data points.
The Super Smoother is a technical analysis indicator designed to be smoother and with less lag than a traditional moving average.
Adaptive Length
Length based on the dominant cycle length measured by a "dominant cycle measurement" algorithm.
Happy Trading!
Best regards,
simwai
---
Credits to
@cheatcountry
@everget
@loxx
@DasanC
@blackcat1402
NormalDistributionFunctionsLibrary "NormalDistributionFunctions"
The NormalDistributionFunctions library encompasses a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for financial market analysis. It provides functions to calculate essential statistical measures such as mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis, alongside advanced functionalities for computing the probability density function (PDF), cumulative distribution function (CDF), Z-score, and confidence intervals. This library is designed to assist in the assessment of market volatility, distribution characteristics of asset returns, and risk management calculations, making it an invaluable resource for traders and financial analysts.
meanAndStdDev(source, length)
Calculates and returns the mean and standard deviation for a given data series over a specified period.
Parameters:
source (float) : float: The data series to analyze.
length (int) : int: The lookback period for the calculation.
Returns: Returns an array where the first element is the mean and the second element is the standard deviation of the data series for the given period.
skewness(source, mean, stdDev, length)
Calculates and returns skewness for a given data series over a specified period.
Parameters:
source (float) : float: The data series to analyze.
mean (float) : float: The mean of the distribution.
stdDev (float) : float: The standard deviation of the distribution.
length (int) : int: The lookback period for the calculation.
Returns: Returns skewness value
kurtosis(source, mean, stdDev, length)
Calculates and returns kurtosis for a given data series over a specified period.
Parameters:
source (float) : float: The data series to analyze.
mean (float) : float: The mean of the distribution.
stdDev (float) : float: The standard deviation of the distribution.
length (int) : int: The lookback period for the calculation.
Returns: Returns kurtosis value
pdf(x, mean, stdDev)
pdf: Calculates the probability density function for a given value within a normal distribution.
Parameters:
x (float) : float: The value to evaluate the PDF at.
mean (float) : float: The mean of the distribution.
stdDev (float) : float: The standard deviation of the distribution.
Returns: Returns the probability density function value for x.
cdf(x, mean, stdDev)
cdf: Calculates the cumulative distribution function for a given value within a normal distribution.
Parameters:
x (float) : float: The value to evaluate the CDF at.
mean (float) : float: The mean of the distribution.
stdDev (float) : float: The standard deviation of the distribution.
Returns: Returns the cumulative distribution function value for x.
confidenceInterval(mean, stdDev, size, confidenceLevel)
Calculates the confidence interval for a data series mean.
Parameters:
mean (float) : float: The mean of the data series.
stdDev (float) : float: The standard deviation of the data series.
size (int) : int: The sample size.
confidenceLevel (float) : float: The confidence level (e.g., 0.95 for 95% confidence).
Returns: Returns the lower and upper bounds of the confidence interval.
Crypto MVRV ZScore - Strategy [PresentTrading]█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Crypto Valuation Extremes: MVRV ZScore - Strategy " represents a cutting-edge approach to cryptocurrency trading, leveraging the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score. This metric is pivotal for identifying overvalued or undervalued conditions in the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin. It assesses the current market valuation against the realized capitalization, providing insights that are not apparent through conventional analysis.
BTCUSD 6h Long/Short Performance
Local
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The strategy leverages the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, specifically designed for cryptocurrencies, with a focus on Bitcoin. This metric is crucial for determining whether Bitcoin is currently undervalued or overvalued compared to its historical 'realized' price. Below is an in-depth explanation of the strategy's components and calculations.
🔶Conceptual Foundation
- Market Capitalization (MC): This represents the total dollar market value of Bitcoin's circulating supply. It is calculated as the current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation.
- Realized Capitalization (RC): Unlike MC, which values all coins at the current market price, RC is computed by valuing each coin at the price it was last moved or traded. Essentially, it is a summation of the value of all bitcoins, priced at the time they were last transacted.
- MVRV Ratio: This ratio is derived by dividing the Market Capitalization by the Realized Capitalization (The ratio of MC to RC (MVRV Ratio = MC / RC)). A ratio greater than 1 indicates that the current price is higher than the average price at which all bitcoins were purchased, suggesting potential overvaluation. Conversely, a ratio below 1 suggests undervaluation.
🔶 MVRV Z-Score Calculation
The Z-Score is a statistical measure that indicates the number of standard deviations an element is from the mean. For this strategy, the MVRV Z-Score is calculated as follows:
MVRV Z-Score = (MC - RC) / Standard Deviation of (MC - RC)
This formula quantifies Bitcoin's deviation from its 'normal' valuation range, offering insights into market sentiment and potential price reversals.
🔶 Spread Z-Score for Trading Signals
The strategy refines this approach by calculating a 'spread Z-Score', which adjusts the MVRV Z-Score over a specific period (default: 252 days). This is done to smooth out short-term market volatility and focus on longer-term valuation trends. The spread Z-Score is calculated as follows:
Spread Z-Score = (Market Z-Score - MVVR Ratio - SMA of Spread) / Standard Deviation of Spread
Where:
- SMA of Spread is the simple moving average of the spread over the specified period.
- Spread refers to the difference between the Market Z-Score and the MVRV Ratio.
🔶 Trading Signals
- Long Entry Condition: A long (buy) signal is generated when the spread Z-Score crosses above the long entry threshold, indicating that Bitcoin is potentially undervalued.
- Short Entry Condition: A short (sell) signal is triggered when the spread Z-Score falls below the short entry threshold, suggesting overvaluation.
These conditions are based on the premise that extreme deviations from the mean (as indicated by the Z-Score) are likely to revert to the mean over time, presenting opportunities for strategic entry and exit points.
█ Practical Application
Traders use these signals to make informed decisions about opening or closing positions in the Bitcoin market. By quantifying market valuation extremes, the strategy aims to capitalize on the cyclical nature of price movements, identifying high-probability entry and exit points based on historical valuation norms.
█ Trade Direction
A unique feature of this strategy is its configurable trade direction. Users can specify their preference for engaging in long positions, short positions, or both. This flexibility allows traders to tailor the strategy according to their risk tolerance, market outlook, or trading style, making it adaptable to various market conditions and trader objectives.
█ Usage
To implement this strategy, traders should first adjust the input parameters to align with their trading preferences and risk management practices. These parameters include the trade direction, Z-Score calculation period, and the thresholds for long and short entries. Once configured, the strategy automatically generates trading signals based on the calculated spread Z-Score, providing clear indications for potential entry and exit points.
It is advisable for traders to backtest the strategy under different market conditions to validate its effectiveness and adjust the settings as necessary. Continuous monitoring and adjustment are crucial, as market dynamics evolve over time.
█ Default Settings
- Trade Direction: Both (Allows for both long and short positions)
- Z-Score Calculation Period: 252 days (Approximately one trading year, capturing a comprehensive market cycle)
- Long Entry Threshold: 0.382 (Indicative of moderate undervaluation)
- Short Entry Threshold: -0.382 (Signifies moderate overvaluation)
These default settings are designed to balance sensitivity to market valuation extremes with a pragmatic approach to trade execution. They aim to filter out noise and focus on significant market movements, providing a solid foundation for both new and experienced traders looking to exploit the unique insights offered by the MVRV Z-Score in the cryptocurrency market.
Crypto Stablecoin Supply - Indicator [presentTrading]█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Stablecoin Supply - Indicator" differentiates itself by focusing on the aggregate supply of major stablecoins—USDT, USDC, and DAI—rather than traditional price-based metrics. Its premise is that fluctuations in the total supply of these stablecoins can serve as leading indicators for broader market movements, offering traders a unique vantage point to anticipate shifts in market sentiment.
BTCUSD 6h for recent bull market
BTCUSD 8h
█ Strategy, How it Works: Detailed Explanation
🔶 Data Collection
The strategy begins with the collection of the closing supply for USDT, USDC, and DAI stablecoins. This data is fetched using a specified timeframe (**`tfInput`**), allowing for flexibility in analysis periods.
🔶 Supply Calculation
The individual supplies of USDT, USDC, and DAI are then aggregated to determine the total stablecoin supply within the market at any given time. This combined figure serves as the foundation for the subsequent statistical analysis.
🔶 Z-Score Computation
The heart of the indicator's strategy lies in the computation of the Z-Score, which is a statistical measure used to identify how far a data point is from the mean, relative to the standard deviation. The formula for the Z-Score is:
Z = (X - μ) / σ
Where:
- Z is the Z-Score
- X is the current total stablecoin supply (TotalStablecoinClose)
- μ (mu) is the mean of the total stablecoin supply over a specified length (len)
- σ (sigma) is the standard deviation of the total stablecoin supply over the same length
A moving average of the Z-Score (**`zScore_ma`**) is calculated over a short period (defaulted to 3) to smooth out the volatility and provide a clearer signal.
🔶 Signal Interpretation
The Z-Score itself is plotted, with its color indicating its relation to a defined threshold (0.382), serving as a direct visual cue for market sentiment. Zones are also highlighted to show when the Z-Score is within certain extreme ranges, suggesting overbought or oversold conditions.
Bull -> Bear
█ Trade Direction
- **Entry Threshold**: A Z-Score crossing above 0.382 suggests an increase in stablecoin supply relative to its historical average, potentially indicating bullish market sentiment or incoming capital flow into cryptocurrencies.
- **Exit Threshold**: Conversely, a Z-Score dropping below -0.382 may signal a reduction in stablecoin supply, hinting at bearish sentiment or capital withdrawal.
█ Usage
Traders can leverage the "Stablecoin Supply - Indicator" to gain insights into the underlying market dynamics that are not immediately apparent through price analysis alone. It is particularly useful for identifying potential shifts in market sentiment before they are reflected in price movements. By integrating this indicator with other technical analysis tools, traders can develop a more rounded and informed trading strategy.
█ Default Settings
- Timeframe Input (`tfInput`): Allows users to specify the timeframe for data collection, adding flexibility to the analysis.
- Z-Score Length (`len`): Set to 252 by default, representing the period over which the mean and standard deviation of the stablecoin supply are calculated.
- Color Coding: Uses distinct colors (green for bullish, red for bearish) to indicate the Z-Score's position relative to its thresholds, enhancing visual clarity.
- Extreme Range Fill: Highlights areas between defined high and low Z-Score thresholds with distinct colors to indicate potential overbought or oversold conditions.
By integrating considerations of stablecoin supply into the analytical framework, the "Stablecoin Supply - Indicator" offers a novel perspective on cryptocurrency market dynamics, enabling traders to make more nuanced and informed decisions.
Mean Reversion Watchlist [Z score]Hi Traders !
What is the Z score:
The Z score measures a values variability factor from the mean, this value is denoted by z and is interpreted as the number of standard deviations from the mean.
The Z score is often applied to the normal distribution to “standardize” the values; this makes comparison of normally distributed random variables with different units possible.
This popular reversal based indicator makes an assumption that the sample distribution (in this case the sample of price values) is normal, this allows for the interpretation that values with an extremely high or low percentile or “Z” value will likely be reversal zones.
This is because in the population data (the true distribution) which is known, anomaly values are very rare, therefore if price were to take a z score factor of 3 this would mean that price lies 3 standard deviations from the mean in the positive direction and is in the ≈99% percentile of all values. We would take this as a sign of a negative reversal as it is very unlikely to observe a consecutive equal to or more extreme than this percentile or Z value.
The z score normalization equation is given by
In Pine Script the Z score can be computed very easily using the below code.
// Z score custom function
Zscore(source, lookback) =>
sma = ta.sma(source, lookback)
stdev = ta.stdev(source, lookback, true)
zscore = (source - sma) / stdev
zscore
The Indicator:
This indicator plots the Z score for up to 20 different assets ( Note the maximum is 40 however the utility of 40 plots in one indicator is not much, there is a diminishing marginal return of the number of plots ).
Z score threshold levels can also be specified, the interpretation is the same as stated above.
The timeframe can also be fixed, by toggling the “Time frame lock” user input under the “TIME FRAME LOCK” user input group ( Note this indicator does not repain t).
Z-Score - AsymmetrikZ-Score-Asymmetrik User Manual
Introduction
The Z-Score Indicator is a powerful tool used in technical analysis to measure how far a data point is from the mean value of a dataset, measured in terms of standard deviations. This indicator helps traders identify potential overbought or oversold conditions in the market.
This user manual provides a comprehensive guide on how to use the Z-Score Indicator in TradingView.
0. Quickstart
- Set the thresholds based on your asset (number of standard deviations that you consider being extreme for this asset / timeframe).
- Red background indicates a possible overbought situation, green background an oversold one.
- The color and direction of the Z-Score Line acts as a confirmation of the trend reversal.
1. Indicator Overview
The Z-Score Indicator, also known as the Z-Score Oscillator, is designed to display the Z-Score of a selected financial instrument on your TradingView chart. The Z-Score measures how many standard deviations an asset's price is from its mean (average) price over a specified period.
The indicator consists of the following components:
- Z-Score Line: This line represents the Z-Score value and is displayed on the indicator panel.
- Background Color: The background color of the indicator panel changes based on user-defined thresholds.
2. Inputs
The indicator provides several customizable inputs to tailor it to your specific trading preferences:
- Number of Periods: This input allows you to define the number of periods over which the Z-Score will be calculated. A longer period will provide a smoother Z-Score line but may be less responsive to recent price changes.
- Z-Score Low Threshold: Sets the lower threshold value for the Z-Score. When the Z-Score crosses below this threshold, the background color of the indicator panel changes accordingly.
- Z-Score High Threshold: Sets the upper threshold value for the Z-Score. When the Z-Score crosses above this threshold, the background color of the indicator panel changes accordingly.
3. How to Use the Indicator
Here are the steps to use the Z-Score Indicator:
- Adjust Parameters: Modify the indicator's inputs as needed. You can change the number of periods for the Z-Score calculation and set your desired low and high thresholds.
- Interpret the Indicator: Observe the Z-Score line on the indicator panel. It fluctuates above and below zero. Pay attention to the background color changes when the Z-Score crosses your specified thresholds.
4. Interpreting the Indicator
- Z-Score Line: The Z-Score line represents the current Z-Score value. When it is above zero, it suggests that the asset's price is above the mean, indicating potential overvaluation. When below zero, it suggests undervaluation.
- Background Color: The background color of the indicator panel changes based on the Z-Score's position relative to the specified thresholds. Green indicates the Z-Score is below the low threshold (potential undervaluation), while red indicates it is above the high threshold (potential overvaluation).
- Z-Score Line Color: The color of the Z-Score line shows that the Z-Score is trending up compared to its moving average. This can be used as a validation of the background color.
5. Customization Options
You can customize the Z-Score Indicator in the following ways:
- Adjust Inputs: Modify the number of periods and the Z-Score thresholds.
- Change Line and Background Colors: You can customize the colors of the Z-Score line and background by editing the indicator's script.
6. Troubleshooting
If you encounter any issues while using the Z-Score Indicator, make sure to check the following:
- Ensure that the indicator is applied correctly to your chart.
- Verify that the indicator's inputs match your intended settings.
- Contact me for more support if needed
7. Conclusion
The Z-Score Indicator is a valuable tool for traders and investors to identify potential overbought and oversold conditions in the market. By understanding how the Z-Score works and customizing it to your preferences, you can integrate it into your trading strategy to make informed decisions.
Remember that trading involves risk, and it's essential to combine technical indicators like the Z-Score with other analysis methods and risk management strategies for successful trading.
Volume and Price Z-Score [Multi-Asset] - By LeviathanThis script offers in-depth Z-Score analytics on price and volume for 200 symbols. Utilizing visualizations such as scatter plots, histograms, and heatmaps, it enables traders to uncover potential trade opportunities, discern market dynamics, pinpoint outliers, delve into the relationship between price and volume, and much more.
A Z-Score is a statistical measurement indicating the number of standard deviations a data point deviates from the dataset's mean. Essentially, it provides insight into a value's relative position within a group of values (mean).
- A Z-Score of zero means the data point is exactly at the mean.
- A positive Z-Score indicates the data point is above the mean.
- A negative Z-Score indicates the data point is below the mean.
For instance, a Z-Score of 1 indicates that the data point is 1 standard deviation above the mean, while a Z-Score of -1 indicates that the data point is 1 standard deviation below the mean. In simple terms, the more extreme the Z-Score of a data point, the more “unusual” it is within a larger context.
If data is normally distributed, the following properties can be observed:
- About 68% of the data will lie within ±1 standard deviation (z-score between -1 and 1).
- About 95% will lie within ±2 standard deviations (z-score between -2 and 2).
- About 99.7% will lie within ±3 standard deviations (z-score between -3 and 3).
Datasets like price and volume (in this context) are most often not normally distributed. While the interpretation in terms of percentage of data lying within certain ranges of z-scores (like the ones mentioned above) won't hold, the z-score can still be a useful measure of how "unusual" a data point is relative to the mean.
The aim of this indicator is to offer a unique way of screening the market for trading opportunities by conveniently visualizing where current volume and price activity stands in relation to the average. It also offers features to observe the convergent/divergent relationships between asset’s price movement and volume, observe a single symbol’s activity compared to the wider market activity and much more.
Here is an overview of a few important settings.
Z-SCORE TYPE
◽️ Z-Score Type: Current Z-Score
Calculates the z-score by comparing current bar’s price and volume data to the mean (moving average with any custom length, default is 20 bars). This indicates how much the current bar’s price and volume data deviates from the average over the specified period. A positive z-score suggests that the current bar's price or volume is above the mean of the last 20 bars (or the custom length set by the user), while a negative z-score means it's below that mean.
Example: Consider an asset whose current price and volume both show deviations from their 20-bar averages. If the price's Z-Score is +1.5 and the volume's Z-Score is +2.0, it means the asset's price is 1.5 standard deviations above its average, and its trading volume is 2 standard deviations above its average. This might suggest a significant upward move with strong trading activity.
◽️ Z-Score Type: Average Z-Score
Calculates the custom-length average of symbol's z-score. Think of it as a smoothed version of the Current Z-Score. Instead of just looking at the z-score calculated on the latest bar, it considers the average behavior over the last few bars. By doing this, it helps reduce sudden jumps and gives a clearer, steadier view of the market.
Example: Instead of a single bar, imagine the average price and volume of an asset over the last 5 bars. If the price's 5-bar average Z-Score is +1.0 and the volume's is +1.5, it tells us that, over these recent bars, both the price and volume have been consistently above their longer-term averages, indicating sustained increase.
◽️ Z-Score Type: Relative Z-Score
Calculates a relative z-score by comparing symbol’s current bar z-score to the mean (average z-score of all symbols in the group). This is essentially a z-score of a z-score, and it helps in understanding how a particular symbol's activity stands out not just in its own historical context, but also in relation to the broader set of symbols being analyzed. In other words, while the primary z-score tells you how unusual a bar's activity is for that specific symbol, the relative z-score informs you how that "unusualness" ranks when compared to the entire group's deviations. This can be particularly useful in identifying symbols that are outliers even among outliers, indicating exceptionally unique behaviors or opportunities.
Example: If one asset's price Z-Score is +2.5 and volume Z-Score is +3.0, but the group's average Z-Scores are +0.5 for price and +1.0 for volume, this asset’s Relative Z-Score would be high and therefore stand out. This means that asset's price and volume activities are notably high, not just by its own standards, but also when compared to other symbols in the group.
DISPLAY TYPE
◽️ Display Type: Scatter Plot
The Scatter Plot is a visual tool designed to represent values for two variables, in this case the Z-Scores of price and volume for multiple symbols. Each symbol has it's own dot with x and y coordinates:
X-Axis: Represents the Z-Score of price. A symbol further to the right indicates a higher positive deviation in its price from its average, while a symbol to the left indicates a negative deviation.
Y-Axis: Represents the Z-Score of volume. A symbol positioned higher up on the plot suggests a higher positive deviation in its trading volume from its average, while one lower down indicates a negative deviation.
Here are some guideline insights of plot positioning:
- Top-Right Quadrant (High Volume-High Price): Symbols in this quadrant indicate a scenario where both the trading volume and price are higher than their respective mean.
- Top-Left Quadrant (High Volume-Low Price): Symbols here reflect high trading volumes but prices lower than the mean.
- Bottom-Left Quadrant (Low Volume-Low Price): Assets in this quadrant have both low trading volume and price compared to their mean.
- Bottom-Right Quadrant (Low Volume-High Price): Symbols positioned here have prices that are higher than their mean, but the trading volume is low compared to the mean.
The plot also integrates a set of concentric squares which serve as visual guides:
- 1st Square (1SD): Encapsulates symbols that have Z-Scores within ±1 standard deviation for both price and volume. Symbols within this square are typically considered to be displaying normal behavior or within expected range.
- 2nd Square (2SD): Encapsulates those with Z-Scores within ±2 standard deviations. Symbols within this boundary, but outside the 1 SD square, indicate a moderate deviation from the norm.
- 3rd Square (3SD): Represents symbols with Z-Scores within ±3 standard deviations. Any symbol outside this square is deemed to be a significant outlier, exhibiting extreme behavior in terms of either its price, its volume, or both.
By assessing the position of symbols relative to these squares, traders can swiftly identify which assets are behaving typically and which are showing unusual activity. This visualization simplifies the process of spotting potential outliers or unique trading opportunities within the market. The farther a symbol is from the center, the more it deviates from its typical behavior.
◽️ Display Type: Columns
In this visualization, z-scores are represented using columns, where each symbol is presented horizontally. Each symbol has two distinct nodes:
- Left Node: Represents the z-score of volume.
- Right Node: Represents the z-score of price.
The height of these nodes can vary along the y-axis between -4 and 4, based on the z-score value:
- Large Positive Columns: Signify a high or positive z-score, indicating that the price or volume is significantly above its average.
- Large Negative Columns: Represent a low or negative z-score, suggesting that the price or volume is considerably below its average.
- Short Columns Near 0: Indicate that the price or volume is close to its mean, showcasing minimal deviation.
This columnar representation provides a clear, intuitive view of how each symbol's price and volume deviate from their respective averages.
◽️ Display Type: Circles
In this visualization style, z-scores are depicted using circles. Each symbol is horizontally aligned and represented by:
- Solid Circle: Represents the z-score of price.
- Transparent Circle: Represents the z-score of volume.
The vertical position of these circles on the y-axis ranges between -4 and 4, reflecting the z-score value:
- Circles Near the Top: Indicate a high or positive z-score, suggesting the price or volume is well above its average.
- Circles Near the Bottom: Represent a low or negative z-score, pointing to the price or volume being notably below its average.
- Circles Around the Midline (0): Highlight that the price or volume is close to its mean, with minimal deviation.
◽️ Display Type: Delta Columns
There's also an option to utilize Z-Score Delta Columns. For each symbol, a single column is presented, depicting the difference between the z-score of price and the z-score of volume.
The z-score delta essentially captures the disparity between how much the price and volume deviate from their respective mean:
- Positive Delta: Indicates that the z-score of price is greater than the z-score of volume. This suggests that the price has deviated more from its average than the volume has from its own average. Such a scenario could point to price movements being more significant or pronounced compared to the changes in volume.
- Negative Delta: Represents that the z-score of volume is higher than the z-score of price. This might mean that there are substantial volume changes, yet the price hasn't moved as dramatically. This can be indicative of potential build-up in trading interest without an equivalent impact on price.
- Delta Close to 0: Means that the z-scores for price and volume are almost equal, indicating their deviations from the average are in sync.
◽️ Display Type: Z-Volume/Z-Price Heatmap
This visualization offers a heatmap either for volume z-scores or price z-scores across all symbols. Here's how it's presented:
Each symbol is allocated its own horizontal row. Within this row, bar-by-bar data is displayed using a color gradient to represent the z-score values. The heatmap employs a user-defined gradient scale, where a chosen "cold" color represents low z-scores and a chosen "hot" color signifies high z-scores. As the z-score increases or decreases, the colors transition smoothly along this gradient, providing an intuitive visual indication of the z-score's magnitude.
- Cold Colors: Indicate values significantly below the mean (negative z-score)
- Mild Colors: Represent values close to the mean, suggesting minimal deviation.
- Hot Colors: Indicate values significantly above the mean (positive z-score)
This heatmap format provides a rapid, visually impactful means to discern how each symbol's price or volume is behaving relative to its average. The color-coded rows allow you to quickly spot outliers.
VOLUME TYPE
The "Volume Type" input allows you to choose the nature of volume data that will be factored into the volume z-score calculation. The interpretation of indicator’s data changes based on this input. You can opt between:
- Volume (Regular Volume): This is the classic measure of trading volume, which represents the volume traded in a given time period - bar.
- OBV (On-Balance Volume): OBV is a momentum indicator that accumulates volume on up bars and subtracts it on down bars, making it a cumulative indicator that sort of measures buying and selling pressure.
Interpretation Implications:
- For Volume Type: Regular Volume:
Positive Z-Score: Indicates that the trading volume is above its average, meaning there's unusually high trading activity .
Negative Z-Score: Suggests that the trading volume is below its average, signifying unusually low trading activity.
- For Volume Type: OBV:
Positive Z-Score: Signifies that “buying pressure” is above its average.
Negative Z-Score: Signifies that “selling pressure” is above its average.
When comparing Z-Score of OBV to Z-Score of price, we can observe several scenarios. If Z-Price and Z-Volume are convergent (have similar z-scores), we can say that the directional price movement is supported by volume. If Z-Price and Z-Volume are divergent (have very different z-scores or one of them being zero), it suggests a potential misalignment between price movement and volume support, which might hint at possible reversals or weakness.
Z Score CANDLE and Exciting candle signal [DJ D]This script paints candles when their zscore reaches above 2 standard deviations in price from the mean. The blue candle represents up candle above 2. Magenta candle below -2. The candles can signal the beginning of a move and also importantly exhaustion.
The script also signals when a candle has volatility above 6. The higher the sensitivity the less frequent it will paint. These are real time paints and signals. You can adjust for higher time frames by adjusting the length of the z score and adjust the sensitivity of the volatility candles.
The yellow candle is a mean candle and can signify consolidation and/or indecision. Drawing a Darvis type box around around mean candles can give you a zone to watch.
These settings are for 1 minute scalping. The volatility sensitivity range between 1- 2 is good for 15, 30, (ie 1.0 or 1.2) and your discretion....
Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSRO) is a cryptocurrency indicator designed for mean reversion analysis and sentiment assessment. It calculates the ratio of CRYPTO:BTCUSD 's market capitalization to the sum of stablecoins' market capitalization and z-scores the result, offering insights into market sentiment and potential turning points.
Methodology:
The SSRO is calculated as follows-
method ssro(float src, array stblsrc, int len) =>
float ssr = src / stblsrc.sum() // Source of the underlying divided by the sum of stablecoin sources
(ssr - ta.sma(ssr, len)) / ta.stdev(ssr, len) // Z-Score Transformed
This ratio is Z-Scored to provide a standardized measure, allowing users to identify periods of market fear or greed based on the allocation of capital between the underlying and Stablecoins ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT , CRYPTOCAP:USDC , CRYPTO:TUSD , CRYPTOCAP:BUSD , CRYPTOCAP:DAI , CRYPTOCAP:USDD , CRYPTOCAP:FRAX ). The z-scored values indicate potential areas of discount (buying opportunities) or premium (selling opportunities) relative to historical patterns.
Customization:
Underlying Asset: SSRO is customizable to different underlying assets, offering a versatile tool for various cryptocurrencies.
Calculation Length: Users can adjust the length of the calculation, tailoring the indicator to short or long-term analysis.
Visualization: SSRO can be displayed as candles, providing a visual representation of premium and discount areas.
Interpretation:
Market Sentiment: Lower SSRO values may indicate market fear, suggesting a preference for stablecoins as a relatively safer haven for capital. Conversely, higher values may suggest market greed, as more capital is allocated to the underlying asset.
Utility and Use Cases:
1. Mean Reversion Analysis: SSRO identifies potential mean reversion opportunities, guiding traders on optimal entry and exit points.
2. Sentiment Analysis: The indicator provides insights into market sentiment, aiding traders in understanding market dynamics.
3. Macro Analysis: The majority of cryptos follow \ correlate to CRYPTO:BTCUSD , Therefore by assessing premium and discount areas of CRYPTO:BTCUSD relative to the chosen underlying asset, users gain insights into potential market tops and bottoms.
4. Divergence Analysis: SSRO divergence from price trends can signal potential reversals, providing traders with additional confirmation for their decisions.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator is a valuable tool for cryptocurrency traders, offering a nuanced perspective on market sentiment and mean reversion opportunities. Its customization options and visual representation make it a versatile and powerful addition to the crypto analyst's toolkit.
Extreme Reversal SignalThe Extreme Reversal Signal is designed to signal potential pivot points when the price of an asset becomes extremely overbought or oversold. Extreme conditions typically signal a brief or extensive price reversal, offering valuable entry or exit points. It's important to note that this indicator may produce multiple signals, making it essential to corroborate these signals with other forms of analysis to determine their validity. While the default settings provide valuable insights, it might be beneficial to experiment with different configurations to ensure the indicator's efficacy.
Two primary conditions define extremely overbought and oversold states. The first condition is that the price must deviate by two standard deviations from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The second condition is that the 3-day SMA of the 14-day Stochastic Oscillator (STO) derived from the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above or below the upper or lower limit.
Oversold states arise when the first condition is met and the 3-day SMA of the 14-day Stochastic RSI falls below the lower limit, suggesting a buy signal. These are visually represented by green triangles below the price bars. Overbought states arise when the first condition is met and the 3-day SMA of the 14-day Stochastic RSI rises above the upper limit, suggesting a sell signal. These are visually represented by red triangles above the price bars. It's also possible to set up automated alerts to get notifications when either of these two conditions is met to avoid missing out.
While this indicator has traditionally identified overbought and oversold conditions in various different assets, past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, it is advisable to supplement this indicator with other technical tools. For instance, trend indicators can greatly improve the decision-making process when planning for entries and exit points.
Enhanced WaveTrend OscillatorThe Enhanced WaveTrend Oscillator is a modified version of the original WaveTrend. The WaveTrend indicator is a popular technical analysis tool used to identify overbought and oversold conditions in the market and generate trading signals. The enhanced version addresses certain limitations of the original indicator and introduces additional features for improved analysis and comparison across assets.
WaveTrend:
The original WaveTrend indicator calculates two lines based on exponential moving averages and their relationship to the asset's price. The first line measures the distance between the asset's price and its EMA, while the second line smooths the first line over a specific period. The result is divided by 0.015 multiplied by the smoothed difference ('d' for reference). The indicator aims to identify overbought and oversold conditions by analyzing the relationship between the two lines.
In the original formula, the rudimentary estimation factor 0.015 times 'd' fails to accomodate for approximately a quarter of the data, preventing the indicator from reaching the traditional stationary levels of +-100. This limitation renders the indicator quantitatively biased, as it relies on the user's subjective adjustment of the levels. The enhanced version replaces this factor with the standard deviation of the asset's price, resulting in improved estimation accuracy and provides a more dynamic and robust outcome, we thereafter multiply the result by 100 to achieve a more traditional oscillation.
Enhancements and Features:
The enhanced version of the WaveTrend indicator addresses several limitations of the original indicator and introduces additional features-
Dynamic Estimation: The original indicator uses an arbitrary estimation factor, while the enhanced version replaces it with the standard deviation of the asset's price. This modification provides a more dynamic and accurate estimation, adapting to the specific price characteristics of each asset.
Stationary Support and Resistance Levels: The enhanced version provides stationary key support and resistance levels that range from -150 to 150. These levels are determined based on the analysis of the indicator's data and encompass more than 95% of the indicator's values. These levels offer important reference points for traders to identify potential price reversals or significant price movements.
Comparison Across Assets: The enhanced version allows for better comparison and analysis across different assets. By incorporating the standard deviation of the asset's price, the indicator provides a more consistent and comparable interpretation of the market conditions across multiple assets.
Upon closer inspection of the modification in the enhanced version, we can observe that the resulting indicator is a smoothed variation of the Z-Score!
f_ewave(src, chlen, avglen) =>
basis = ta.ema(src, chlen)
dev = ta.stdev(src, chlen)
wave = (src - basis) / dev * 100
ta.ema(wave, avglen)
Z-Score Analysis:
The Z-Score is a statistical measurement that quantifies how far a particular data point deviates from the mean in terms of standard deviations. In the enhanced version, the calculation involves determining the basis (mean) and deviation (standard deviation) of the asset's price to calculate its Z-Score, thereafter applying a smoothing technique to generate the final WaveTrend value.
Utility:
The 𝗘𝗻𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗪𝗧 indicator offers traders and investors valuable insights into overbought and oversold conditions in the market. By analyzing the indicator's values and referencing the stationary support and resistance levels, traders can identify potential trend reversals, evaluate market strength, and make better informed analysis.
It is important to note that this indicator should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and indicators to confirm trading signals and validate market dynamics.
Credit:
The 𝗘𝗻𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗪𝗧 indicator is a modification of the original WaveTrend Oscillator developed by @LazyBear on TradingView.
Example Charts:
Z-Score Heikin-Ashi TransformedThe Z-Score Heikin-Ashi Transformed (𝘡 𝘏-𝘈) indicator is a powerful technical tool that combines the principles of Z-Score and Heikin Ashi to provide traders with a smoothed representation of price movements and a standardized measure of market volatility.
The 𝘡 𝘏-𝘈 indicator applies the Z-Score calculation to price data and then transforms the resulting Z-Scores using the Heikin Ashi technique. Understanding the individual components of Z-Score and Heikin Ashi will provide a foundation for comprehending the methodology and unique features of this indicator.
Z-Score:
Z-Score is a statistical measure that quantifies the distance between a data point and the mean, relative to the standard deviation. It provides a standardized value that allows traders to compare different data points on a common scale. In the context of the 𝘡 𝘏-𝘈 indicator, Z-Score is calculated based on price data, enabling the identification of extreme price movements and the assessment of their significance.
Heikin Ashi:
Heikin Ashi is a popular charting technique that aims to filter out market noise and provide a smoother representation of price trends. It involves calculating each candlestick based on the average of the previous candle's open, close, high, and low prices. This approach results in a chart that reduces the impact of short-term price fluctuations and reveals the underlying trend more clearly.
Methodology:
The 𝘡 𝘏-𝘈 indicator starts by calculating the Z-Score of the price data, which provides a standardized measure of how far each price point deviates from the mean. Next, the resulting Z-Scores are transformed using the Heikin Ashi technique. Each Z-Score value is modified according to the Heikin Ashi formula, which incorporates the average of the previous Heikin Ashi candle's open and close prices. This transformation smooths out the Z-Score values and reduces the impact of short-term price fluctuations, providing a clearer view of market trends.
This tool enables traders to identify significant price movements and assess their relative strength compared to historical data. Positive transformed Z-Scores indicate that prices are above the average, suggesting potential overbought conditions, while negative transformed Z-Scores indicate prices below the average, suggesting potential oversold conditions. Traders can utilize this information to identify potential reversals, confirm trend strength, and generate trading signals.
Utility:
The indicator offers valuable insights into price volatility and trend analysis. By combining the standardized measure of Z-Score with the smoothing effect of Heikin Ashi, traders can make more informed trading decisions and improve their understanding of market dynamics. 𝘡 𝘏-𝘈 can be used in various trading strategies, including identifying overbought or oversold conditions, confirming trend reversals, and establishing entry and exit points.
Note that the 𝘡 𝘏-𝘈 should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators and analysis tools to validate signals and avoid false positives. Additionally, traders are encouraged to conduct thorough backtesting and experimentation with different parameter settings to optimize the effectiveness of the indicator for their specific trading approach.
Key Features:
Optional Reversion Doritos
Adjustable Reversion Threshold
2 Adjustable EMAs
Example Charts:
See Also:
On Balance Volume Heikin-Ashi Transformed
