Korneev Reverse RSIRethinking the Legendary Relative Strength Index by John Welles Wilder
The essence of the new approach lies in the reverse use of the so-called "overbought" and "oversold" zones. In his 1978 book, "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems," where the RSI mechanism was thoroughly described, Wilder writes that one way to use the oscillator is to open a long position when the RSI drops into oversold territory (below 30) and to open a short position when the RSI rises to overbought levels (above 70). However, backtesting this strategy with such inputs yields rather mediocre results.
Based on the calculation formula, the RSI calculates the rate of price change over a certain period. Therefore, overbought and oversold zones will have relative significance (relative to the set calculation period). It is no coincidence that the word "relative" was added to the name of the oscillator. It is worth accepting as an axiom the assertion that the price of an asset is fair at every moment in time.
Essentially, the RSI calculates the strength of a trend. If the oscillator value is above 70, it is highly likely that an upward movement is occurring in the market. Therefore, in the current strategy, a long position is opened precisely at the moment of greatest buyer strength (when RSI > 80), i.e., in the direction of the trend, since counter-trend trading with the RSI has proven to be ineffective. The position is closed after the buyers lose their advantage and the RSI drops to 40.
The strategy is recommended to be used only with long positions, as short positions show negative results. The strategy uses a moving average for the RSI with a period of 14 to smooth the oscillator data.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Переосмысление легендарного осциллятора Relative strength index Джона Уэллса Уайлдера
Суть нового подхода заключается в реверсивном использовании так называемых зон "перекупленности" и "перепроданности". В своей книге от 1978 года "New concepts in tecnical trading systems", в которой был подробно описан механизм работы RSI, Уайлдер пишет, что один из способов использования осциллятора - открытие длинной позиции при снижении RSI в перепроданность (ниже 30) и открытие короткой позиции при повышении RSI до перекупленности (выше 70). Однако бэктест стратегии с такими вводными дает весьма посредственные результаты.
Исходя из формулы расчета, RSI рассчитывает скорость изменения цены за определенный период. Поэтому зоны перекупленности и перепроданности будут иметь относительное значение (относительно установленного периода расчета). Не зря ведь в названии осциллятора было добавлено слово "относительной". Стоит принять за аксиому утверждение, что цена актива справедлива в каждый момент времени.
По сути, RSI рассчитывает силу тренда. Если значение осциллятора выше 70, то на рынке с высокой долей вероятности происходит восходящее движение. Поэтому в текущей стратегии открытие лонга происходит именно в момент наибольшей силы покупателей (когда RSI > 80), то есть в сторону тренда, поскольку контртрендовая торговля по RSI показала свою несостоятельность. Закрытие позиции происходит после того, как покупатели теряют преимущество и RSI снижается до 40.
Стратегию рекомендуется использовать только с длинными позициями, поскольку короткие позиции показывают отрицательный результат. В стратегии используется скользящая средняя для RSI с периодом 14 для сглаживания данных осциллятора.
Wilder
Wilder's Volatility Trailing Stop Strategy with various MA'sFor Educational Purposes. Results can differ on different markets and can fail at any time. Profit is not guaranteed.
This only works in a few markets and in certain situations. Changing the settings can give better or worse results for other markets. This strategy is based on Wilder's Volatility System. It is an ATR trailing stop that is used for long term trends. This strategy focuses on the trailing stop alone and goes long and short only when it goes above or below the trailing line. It is similar to Donchian channels except it does not include the certain period channel breakout, only the trailing signal. This is only the trailing stop and an attempt to show how well it works standalone as Wilder described.
In his book, Wilder recommends a multiplier of 2.8-3.1 and an ATR lookback of 7 periods along with a running moving average or otherwise known as Wilder's moving average. The calculation and programming part for the trailing stop varies everywhere. I opted to keep it as simple and accurate as I could think of and interpret from the book. The variations to these types of indicators are numerous unfortunately, but Wilder seems to be the original author of ATR and this ATR-based trailing stop. In his book he says to use the significant closing price or highest/lowest closing price for the calculation part but I also included the option of choosing the highest high and lowest low, and the option to choose various moving averages in case anyone wants to experiment.
Comparing this and Donchian channels, it seems that a 2.5 multiplier is somewhat similar to the middle band of DCs and a 3.0 multiplier is somewhat similar to a double length middle band of DCs. It's hard to say which is the better trailing stop for a long term strategy. It's hard to beat the simplicity of DCs but maybe some might find a need for more inputs in a trailing stop or maybe an ATR based one like Wilder's can work better depending on what setting or strategy it's used in.
Trend Balance Point System by Welles WilderThis is the original Trend Balance Point System created by Welles Wilders in 1978, rules can be found in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.
Volatility System by Wilder [LucF]The Volatility System was created by J. Welles Wilder, Jr. It first appeared in his seminal masterpiece, "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems" (1978). He describes the system on pp.23-26, in the chapter discussing the first presentation ever of the "Volatility Index", built using a novel way of calculating a value representing volatility that he named Average True Range (ATR). The latter stuck.
The system is a pure reversal system (it is always either long or short). One of its characteristics is that its stop strategy moves up and down during a trade, widening the gap from price when volatility (ATR) increases. Because of this, this strategy can suffer large drawdowns and is not for the faint of heart.
The strategy uses a length (n) to calculate an ATR. ATR(n) is then multiplied by a factor to calculate the Average Range Constant (ARC). The ARC is then added to the lowest close n bars back to form the high Stop and Reverse points (SAR), and subtracted from the highest close n bars back to calculate the low SAR. Reversals occur when price closes above the high SAR or below the low SAR.
The system is best suited to higher time frames: 12H and above. Its performance depends heavily on calibration of the length and ARC factor. Wilder proposes a length of 7 and a factor between 2.8 to 3.1. My summary tests at 12H, 1D and 3D on stocks and cryptos yield better results with values of approximately 9-10/1.8-2.5 for cryptos and 9-10/3.0-4.0 for stocks. Small changes in the values will sometimes yield large variations in results, which I don’t particularly like because it tends to imply fragility, whereas I’d expect more robustness from a system with such simple rules. Additionally, backtests at 1D on cryptos provide so little data that no solid conclusions can be drawn from them.
All in all, the system is not very useful in my opinion; I publish it more for completeness, since as far as I can tell, it did not exist on this platform before. I also publish it out of respect for Wilder’s work. His book laid the foundation for many of the building blocks used by system designers, even today. In less than a hundred pages he presented RSI, ATR, DMI, ADXR and the Parabolic SAR indicators, some of which have become built-in functions in programming languages. This is a colossal feat and has not been repeated. Wilder is a monument.
Some lesser-known facts about his book:
It sells for the exact same price it cost in 1978: 65$,
The book has always been published by Wilder himself,
The layout hasn’t changed in 40 years,
He sells >35K copies/year.
Gotta love the guy.
The strategy is shown here on BTC /USD with settings of 12/1.8 (the defaults are 9/1.8). It shows the system under its best light. Other markets will most not reproduce such results. Also, the drawdown is as scary as the results are impressive.
Features
The code is written as a strategy but can easily be converted to an indicator if you want to use the alerts it can produce. Instructions are in the code.
You can change the length and ARC factor.
You can choose to trade only long or short positions.
You can choose to display the SARs (the stops) in multiple ways.
You can show trigger markers.
A date range can be defined.
3 alerts: reversals (both long and short), longs, shorts. Remember that for the moment, strategies cannot generate alerts in TradingView, so the strategy must be converted to an indicator in order to make the alerts available.
