Outside Bar ProbabilityOutside Bar Percentage by Hour Indicator
Description:
The "Outside Bar Percentage by Hour" indicator is a powerful tool designed to analyze the occurrence of outside bars within each hour of the trading day. This indicator not only tracks the frequency of these key market events but also provides a detailed breakdown of their distribution, allowing traders to identify potential patterns and key trading hours.
What It Does:
Outside Bar Detection: The indicator identifies "outside bars," which occur when the high of a bar is higher than the previous bar's high, and the low is lower than the previous bar's low. These bars often signal significant market moves and potential reversals.
Hourly Analysis: The script tracks the total number of bars and outside bars for each hour (0 to 23) of the trading day. This granular analysis helps traders pinpoint specific hours when outside bars are more likely to occur.
Percentage Calculation: It calculates the percentage chance of an outside bar occurring for each hour, based on the total bars observed. This percentage provides a clear view of the likelihood of encountering an outside bar within a given hour, which can be critical for timing entries and exits.
Visual Representation: The data is displayed in a table format directly on the chart, showing:
Hour: The specific hour of the day.
Total Bars: The total number of bars observed during each hour.
Outside Bar Count: The number of outside bars detected in that hour.
Percentage: The calculated percentage chance of an outside bar occurring in each hour.
How It Works:
The indicator uses a loop to analyze each bar in real-time, checking if it qualifies as an outside bar. It then records the occurrence in arrays that track data for each hour.
At the start of each new day, the counts are reset to ensure the data remains relevant and accurate.
The percentage chance of an outside bar occurring is computed using the formula: (Outside Bar Count / Total Bar Count) * 100.
The results are neatly organized in a table that updates dynamically, providing traders with real-time insights.
How to Use It:
Identify Key Trading Hours: Use the table to observe the distribution of outside bars across different hours. This can help you identify when significant market moves are more likely to occur.
Time Your Entries and Exits: Understanding the likelihood of outside bars can assist in timing your trades, particularly if you use strategies that rely on volatility or market reversals.
Market Analysis: The percentage data can provide insights into the market's behavior during specific times, helping you refine your trading strategy based on historical patterns.
Concepts Underlying the Calculations:
The script leverages the concept of "outside bars," which are often considered indicators of potential reversals or significant market movements. By analyzing these bars across different hours, the indicator provides a temporal dimension to market analysis, helping traders understand when these pivotal events are most likely to occur.
The detailed hourly breakdown and percentage calculations offer a nuanced view of market activity, making it a valuable tool for traders looking to enhance their timing and strategic decision-making.
This indicator is suitable for all types of traders, including those focused on day trading, swing trading, or even longer-term analysis. It provides a unique perspective on market activity that can complement other technical indicators and analyses.
Statistics
[KF] Sector & Industry RemappingThis script remaps TradingView's sector and industry categories to standard classifications and displays them in the top-right corner of the chart making it easy to quickly identify a security's sector and industry. This tool is useful for traders and analysts who prefer standard industry classifications while using TradingView's charts.
OrderBlock Trend (CISD)OrderBlock Trend (CISD) Indicator
Overview:
The "OrderBlock Trend (CISD)" AKA: change in state of delivery by ICT inner circle trader this indicator is designed to help traders identify and visualize market trends based on higher timeframe candle behavior. This script leverages the concept of order blocks, which are price levels where significant buying or selling activity has occurred, to signal potential trend reversals or continuations. By analyzing bullish and bearish order blocks on a higher timeframe, the indicator provides visual cues and statistical insights into the market's current trend dynamics.
Key Features:
Higher Timeframe Analysis: The indicator uses a higher timeframe (e.g., Daily) to assess the trend direction based on the open and close prices of candles. This approach helps in identifying more significant and reliable trend changes, filtering out noise from lower timeframes.
Bullish and Bearish Order Blocks: The script detects the first bullish or bearish candle on the selected higher timeframe and uses these candles as reference points (order blocks) to determine the trend direction. A bullish trend is indicated when the current price is above the last bearish order block's open price, and a bearish trend is indicated when the price is below the last bullish order block's open price.
Visual Trend Indication: The indicator visually represents the trend using background colors and plot shapes:
A green background and a square shape above the bars indicate a bullish trend.
A red background and a square shape above the bars indicate a bearish trend.
Candle Count and Statistics: The script keeps track of the number of up and down candles during bullish and bearish trends, providing percentages of up and down candles in each trend. This data is displayed in a table, giving traders a quick overview of market sentiment during each trend phase.
User Customization: The higher timeframe can be adjusted according to the trader's preference, allowing flexibility in trend analysis based on different time horizons.
Concepts and Calculations:
The "OrderBlock Trend (CISD)" indicator is based on the concept of order blocks, a key area where institutional traders are believed to place large orders, creating significant support or resistance levels. By identifying these blocks on a higher timeframe, the indicator aims to highlight potential trend reversals or continuations. The use of higher timeframe data helps filter out minor fluctuations and focus on more meaningful price movements.
The candle count and percentage calculations provide additional context, allowing traders to understand the proportion of bullish or bearish candles within each trend. This information can be useful for assessing the strength and consistency of a trend.
How to Use:
Select the Higher Timeframe: Choose the higher timeframe (e.g., Daily) that best suits your trading strategy. The default setting is "D" (Daily), but it can be adjusted to other timeframes as needed.
Interpret the Trend Signals:
A green background indicates a bullish trend, while a red background indicates a bearish trend. The corresponding square shapes above the bars reinforce these signals.
Use the information on the proportion of up and down candles during each trend to gauge the trend's strength and consistency.
Trading Decisions: The indicator can be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and indicators to make informed trading decisions. It is particularly useful for identifying trend reversals and potential entry or exit points based on the behavior of higher timeframe order blocks.
Customization and Optimization: Experiment with different higher timeframes and settings to optimize the indicator for your specific trading style and preferences.
Conclusion:
The "OrderBlock Trend (CISD)" indicator offers a comprehensive approach to trend analysis, combining the power of higher timeframe order blocks with clear visual cues and statistical insights. By understanding the underlying concepts and utilizing the provided features, traders can enhance their trend detection and decision-making processes in the markets.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is intended for educational purposes and should be used in conjunction with other analysis methods. Always perform your own research and risk management before making trading decisions.
Some known bugs when you switch to lower timeframe while using daily timeframe data it didn't use the daily candle close to establish the trend change but your current time frame If some of you know how to fix it that would be great if you help me to I would try my best to fix this in the future :) credit to ChatGPT 4o
[SGM Ordinal Patterns]An ordinal pattern is a concept used in mathematics and time series analysis. It is a way of describing the relative order of values in a sequence. Rather than focusing on the exact values, we are interested in how they compare to each other.
An ordinal pattern will tell you how these values are positioned relative to each other.
We do not look at the exact values, but only their order.
Concrete Example
• 4 (position 1 in the original sequence) is in position 2 in the ordered sequence.
• 7 (position 2 in the original sequence) is in position 3 in the ordered sequence.
• 2 (position 3 in the original sequence) is in position 1 in the ordered sequence.
The ordinal pattern for this sequence is then (2,3,1)(2, 3, 1)(2,3,1).
Script Explanation
This script analyzes ordinal patterns based on the closing prices of the last three bars and calculates the future gains associated with each ordinal pattern.
The main elements of the script are:
1. ordinal_pattern Function:
o Determines the ordinal pattern based on three past closing values.
o Returns an index (from 0 to 5) corresponding to one of the six possible ordinal patterns.
2. Calculations and Storage:
o For each new bar, the last three closes are used to identify the ordinal pattern.
o Future gains are calculated and associated with the previous ordinal pattern.
o Return statistics (mean, standard deviation and Sharpe ratio) are calculated for each pattern.
3. Visualization:
o Draws lines connecting the last three closes.
o Tables displaying the number of occurrences, distributions, and return statistics for each ordinal pattern.
What the Script Shows:
• Table motifs_table : Number of occurrences and distribution of each ordinal pattern. An uneven distribution between patterns (different by one sixth for each pattern) can indicate market inefficiency.
• Table pattern_analysis : Analysis of returns (mean, standard deviation, Sharpe ratio) for each ordinal pattern.
• Table current_motif_table : Ordinal pattern of the last bar.
This script helps to understand and visualize how ordinal patterns influence future returns of financial asset prices. An uneven distribution of patterns can indicate market inefficiencies.
Oscillator Scatterplot Analysis [Trendoscope®]In this indicator, we demonstrate how to plot oscillator behavior of oversold-overbought against price movements in the form of scatterplots and perform analysis. Scatterplots are drawn on a graph containing x and y-axis, where x represent one measure whereas y represents another. We use the library Graph to collect the data and plot it as scatterplot.
Pictorial explanation of components is defined in the chart below.
🎲 This indicator performs following tasks
Calculate and plot oscillator
Identify oversold and overbought areas based on various methods
Measure the price and bar movement from overbought to oversold and vice versa and plot them on the chart.
In our example,
The x-axis represents price movement. The plots found on the right side of the graph has positive price movements, whereas the plots found on the left side of the graph has negative price movements.
The y-axis represents the number of bars it took for reaching overbought to oversold and/or oversold to overbought. Positive bars mean we are measuring oversold to overbought, whereas negative bars are a measure of overbought to oversold.
🎲 Graph is divided into 4 equal quadrants
Quadrant 1 is the top right portion of the graph. Plots in this quadrant represent the instances where positive price movement is observed when the oscillator moved from oversold to overbought
Quadrant 2 is the top left portion of the graph. Plots in this quadrant represent the instances where negative price movement is observed when the oscillator moved from oversold to overbought.
Quadrant 3 is the bottom left portion of the chart. Plots in this quadrant represent the instances where negative price movement is observed when the oscillator moved from overbought to oversold.
Quadrant 4 is the bottom right portion of the chart. Plots in this quadrant represent the instances where positive price movement is observed when the oscillator moved from overbought to oversold.
🎲 Indicator components in Detail
Let's dive deep into the indicator.
🎯 Oscillator Selection
Select the Oscillator and define the overbought oversold conditions through input settings
Indicator - Oscillator base used for performing analysis
Length - Loopback length on which the oscillator is calculated
OB/OS Method - We use Bollinger Bands, Keltener Channel and Donchian channel to calculate dynamic overbought and oversold levels instead of static 80-10. This is also useful as other type of indicators may not be within 0-100 range.
Length and Multiplier are used for the bands for calculating Overbought/Oversold boundaries.
🎯 Define Graph Properties
Select different graph properties from the input settings that will instruct how to display the scatterplot.
Type - this can be either scatterplot or heatmap. Scatterplot will display plots with specific transparency to indicate the data, whereas heatmap will display background with different transparencies.
Plot Color - this is the color in which the scatterplot or heatmap is drawn
Plot Size - applicable mainly for scatterplot. Since the character we use for scatterplot is very tiny, the large at present looks optimal. But, based on the user's screen size, we may need to select different sizes so that it will render properly.
Rows and Columns - Number of rows and columns allocated per quadrant. This means, the total size of the chart is 2X rows and 2X columns. Data sets are divided into buckets based on the number of available rows and columns. Hence, changing this can change the appearance of the overall chart, even though they are representing the same data. Also, please note that tables can have max 10000 cells. If we increase the rows and columns by too much, we may get runtime errors.
Outliers - this is used to exclude the extreme data. 20% outlier means, the chart will ignore bottom 20% and top 20% when defining the chart boundaries. However, the extreme data is still added to the boundaries.
Adaptive RSI BandsThe RSI Band Optimizer is an innovative technical analysis tool designed to identify and display the most effective Relative Strength Index (RSI) band values for any given trading instrument. This powerful indicator dynamically calculates optimal overbought and oversold levels, moving beyond the traditional static 70/30 or 80/20 bands.
Core Functionality:
Dynamic RSI Band Calculation:
The indicator analyzes historical price data to determine the most effective RSI levels for identifying overbought and oversold conditions specific to the current trading instrument and timeframe.
Adaptive Optimization:
Rather than relying on external factors, the tool uses a proprietary algorithm that focuses solely on the relationship between historical RSI values and subsequent price movements. This pure RSI-based approach ensures that the bands are optimized for the indicator's own dynamics.
Continuous Recalibration:
The optimal RSI bands are continuously recalculated as new price data becomes available, ensuring that the indicator adapts to changing market conditions and remains relevant over time.
Key Inputs:
RSI Length:
Allows users to set the period for the RSI calculation. While the default is typically 14, users can adjust this to suit their trading style and the characteristics of the instrument they're trading.
Optimization Lookback:
Defines the historical period the indicator uses to calculate optimal bands. This balance between recent market behavior and longer-term patterns.
Band Sensitivity:
Enables fine-tuning of how aggressively the indicator adjusts the RSI bands. Higher sensitivity results in more frequent band adjustments, while lower sensitivity provides more stable levels.
What Makes It Unique:
Self-Contained Optimization:
Unlike indicators that rely on external data sources or comparisons, this tool focuses purely on optimizing RSI bands based on the indicator's own historical performance.
Instrument-Specific Bands:
By calculating optimal bands for each specific instrument, the indicator acknowledges that different assets may have different typical RSI ranges and behaviors.
Timeframe Adaptability:
The optimization process adapts to the selected timeframe, recognizing that optimal RSI bands may differ between short-term and long-term charts.
Dynamic Band Adjustment:
The continuous recalibration of bands allows the indicator to adapt to changing market volatility and trends, providing more relevant signals over time.
Enhanced RSI Interpretation:
By providing optimized, asset-specific overbought and oversold levels, the indicator offers a more nuanced and potentially more accurate interpretation of RSI values.
The RSI Band Optimizer represents a significant advancement in the application of the Relative Strength Index. By dynamically calculating optimal band values, it addresses one of the main criticisms of traditional RSI usage – the reliance on static, one-size-fits-all overbought and oversold levels. This tool empowers traders to make more informed decisions based on RSI readings that are truly tailored to the specific characteristics of the asset they're trading.
1000SATS and ORDI Market Cap RatioSure! Here is a detailed description and usage guide for your TradingView indicator:
### Indicator Description
**Title**: 1000SATS/ORDI Market Cap Ratio
**Description**: The "1000SATS/ORDI Market Cap Ratio" indicator calculates and visualizes the market capitalization ratio between 1000SATS and ORDI. This indicator allows traders and investors to analyze the relative market strength and valuation trends of 1000SATS compared to ORDI over time. By tracking this ratio, users can gain insights into market dynamics and potential trading opportunities between these two assets.
### Indicator Usage
**Purpose**:
- To compare the market capitalizations of 1000SATS and ORDI.
- To identify potential undervaluation or overvaluation of 1000SATS relative to ORDI.
- To assist in making informed trading and investment decisions based on market cap trends.
**How to Use**:
1. **Add the Indicator to Your Chart**:
- Open TradingView and navigate to your chart.
- Click on the "Indicators" button at the top of the chart.
- Select "Pine Editor" and paste the provided script.
- Click "Add to Chart" to apply the indicator.
2. **Interpret the Ratio**:
- The indicator will plot a line representing the ratio of the market capitalization of 1000SATS to ORDI.
- A rising ratio indicates that the market cap of 1000SATS is increasing relative to ORDI, suggesting stronger market performance or higher valuation of 1000SATS.
- A falling ratio indicates that the market cap of 1000SATS is decreasing relative to ORDI, suggesting weaker market performance or lower valuation of 1000SATS.
3. **Analyze Trends**:
- Use the indicator to spot trends and potential reversal points in the market cap ratio.
- Combine the ratio analysis with other technical indicators and chart patterns to enhance your trading strategy.
4. **Set Alerts**:
- Set custom alerts on the ratio to notify you of significant changes or specific thresholds being reached, enabling timely decision-making.
**Example**:
- If the ratio is consistently rising, it may indicate a good opportunity to consider 1000SATS as a stronger investment relative to ORDI.
- Conversely, if the ratio is falling, it may be a signal to reevaluate the strength of 1000SATS compared to ORDI.
**Note**: Always conduct thorough analysis and consider other market factors before making trading decisions based on this indicator.
### Script
```pinescript
//@version=4
study("1000SATS and ORDI Market Cap Ratio", shorttitle="1000SATS/ORDI Ratio", overlay=true)
// Define the circulating supply for ORDI and 1000SATS
ORDI_supply = 21000000 // Circulating supply of ORDI
SATS_1000_supply = 2100000000000 // Circulating supply of 1000SATS
// Fetch the price data for ORDI
ordi_price = security("BINANCE:ORDIUSDT", timeframe.period, close)
// Fetch the price data for 1000SATS
sats_1000_price = security("BINANCE:1000SATSUSDT", timeframe.period, close)
// Calculate the market capitalizations
ordi_market_cap = ordi_price * ORDI_supply
sats_1000_market_cap = sats_1000_price * SATS_1000_supply
// Calculate the market cap ratio
ratio = sats_1000_market_cap / ordi_market_cap
// Plot the ratio
plot(ratio, title="1000SATS/ORDI Market Cap Ratio", color=color.blue, linewidth=2)
```
This description and usage guide should help users understand the purpose and functionality of your indicator, as well as how to effectively apply it in their trading activities on TradingView.
Ethereum ETF Tracker (EET)Get all the information you need about all the different Ethereum ETF.
With the Ethereum ETF Tracker, you can observe all possible Ethereum ETF data:
ETF name.
Ticker.
Price.
Volume.
Share of total ETF volume.
Fees.
Exchange.
Custodian.
At the bottom of the table, you'll find the ETHE Premium (and ETH per Share), and day's total volume.
In addition, you can see the volume for the different Exchanges, as well as for the different Custodians.
If you don't want to display these lines to save space, you can uncheck "Show Additional Data" in the indicator settings.
The Idea
The goal is to provide the community with a tool for tracking all Ethereum ETF data in a synthesized way, directly in your TradingView chart.
How to Use
Simply read the information in the table. You can hover above the Fees and Exchanges cells for more details.
The table takes space on the chart, you can remove the extra lines by unchecking "Show Additional Data" in the indicator settings or reduce text size by changing the "Table Text Size" parameter.
Aggregate volume can be displayed directly on the graph (this volume can be displayed on any asset, such as Ethereum itself). The display can be disabled in the settings.
Coinbase vs Binance Spot Premium for All coins🔶 Coinbase Premium
This indicator allows you to track the premiums for various coins listed on Coinbase relative to Binance. The buying strength of US markets tend to be a good indicator for up trending markets.
The moving average crosses shown as ribbons can be used to time entries and exits
🔶 Available Pairs
Currently, the indicator includes 31 coins as listed below:
BTC, ETH, SOL, BONK, DOGE, XRP, SHIB, ONDO, AVAX, LINK, ENS, LTC, RNDR, INJ, BCH, ARB, OP, ADA, DOT, TIA, ICP, MATIC, LDO, NEAR, CVX, AERO, ORCA, SEI, STX, MKR, SUI
🔶 Key Features
Select Coin: You can select any of the 31 supported coins to track its premium.
Show Ribbons: Option to enable or disable the display of ribbon trend lines between two moving averages.
Adjust MA Lengths: Customizable lengths for the short and long moving averages to fine-tune the trend analysis.
🔶 Calculations
The premium is a simple nominal difference between the Coinbase price and the Binance price.
eg) Coinbase ETHUSD - Binance ETHUSDT = Premium
🔶 Disclaimer
This indicator is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Always conduct your own research and due diligence before making any trading decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
[SGM Markov Chain]Introduction
A Markov chain is a mathematical model that describes a system evolving over time among a finite number of states. This model is based on the assumption that the future state of the system depends only on the current state and not on previous states, the so-called Markov property. In the context of financial markets, Markov chains can be used to model transitions between different market conditions, for example, the probability of a price going up after going up, or going down after going down.
Script Description
This script uses a Markov chain to calculate closing price transition probabilities across the entire accessible chart. It displays the probabilities of the following transitions:
- Up after Up (HH): Probability that the price rises after going up.
- Down after Down (BB): Probability that the price will go down after going down.
- Up after Down (HB): Probability that the price goes up after going down.
- Down after Up (BH): Probability that the price will go down after going up.
Features
- Color customization: Choose colors for each transition type.
- Table Position: Select the position of the probability display table (top/left, top/right, bottom/left, bottom/right).
Position Size CalculatorThe Position Size Calculator (PSC) is a comprehensive tool designed to assist traders in managing their trades risk by accurately calculating the optimal position size based on account settings, trade levels, and risk management parameters. This indicator helps traders make informed decisions by providing critical information about potential profit and loss , risk-reward ratio (RRR) , and position size (PS) .
█ Key Features
• Customizable Account Settings: Define your account size , currency , risk tolerance , and commission structure to personalize the calculations.
• Real-Time Trade Levels: Easily input your entry , stop loss , and take profit prices directly on the chart for immediate calculations.
• Visual Indicators: Clearly see your entry, stop loss, and take profit levels with customizable colors and labels.
• Comprehensive Position Information: View detailed information about your position, including potential profit and loss , risk-reward ratio , and position size .
• Currency Conversion: Automatically convert prices to your account currency, making it easy to manage trades in different markets.
• Hide Metrics : Choose which metrics to display to avoid emotional influence on your trading decisions (e.g., hiding PnL).
█ Conclusion
The Position Size Calculator is an essential tool for traders looking to optimize their trading strategies and manage risk effectively . By providing detailed calculations and visual indicators, this tool helps you make informed decisions, improving your overall trading performance.
█ Important
• Ensure that your stop loss and take profit levels are correctly set relative to your entry price to avoid errors.
• The default commission setting considers both entry and exit commissions. Adjust accordingly if only one commission is applicable.
Consider using this tool to manage every trade risk correctly and prevent significant drawdowns.
Hope you like it. Happy trading!
GG Short & Long IndicatorGG Short & Long Indicator is a powerful signal indicator with AI
How do indicator signals work?
The main purpose of the indicator is to give a signal that is most likely to bring profit based on historical data. This ORIGINAL trend algorithm gives SHORT and LONG signals when several conditions coincide: 1) Breakout of the average value of the modernized VWAP (this VWAP takes data only from certain time periods and trading sessions, as a result, its breakout most often coincides with the beginning of a strong trend); 2) The previous condition must be confirmed by volumes. I noticed that on some crypto exchanges, depending on whether the breakout is false or true, the volumes are different relative to each other. I applied this knowledge for additional filtering of signals (this point works only on crypto assets, on other assets the algorithm works without taking it into account, maybe later I will refine it); 3) When some of my original formulas to determine overbought (similar in principle to RSI, but more designed to work with the trader algorithm), should not show overbought - so that the entry into the transaction was not at too unfavorable values. To summarize, the algorithm tries to find a balance to determine a true breakout, during which the price will not go too far (for an acceptable RR).
But the most important thing is that the parameters to customize the algorithm are governed by our original AI algorithm. It can adjust the indicator in two modes: 1) Settings are selected based on the most profitable historical settings. 2) The settings are selected based not only on historical profitability, but also on winrate, frequency of trades, and a few other items that we will not disclose (so the code is closed) - we consider this approach as a priority, because according to our observations, it gives the highest performance compared to manual tuning. In addition, AI simply simplifies the work with the indicator - you do not need to adjust the settings manually for different trading pairs or timeframes, AI will do it all by itself and immediately give the ready result (backtest) on the table.
How to trade?
After the signal is issued, the indicator determines the recommended levels to close the trade (green dots). Stop loss should be placed behind the corresponding gray SL mark. Levels for closing a deal (TP) and the level of stop loss setting (SL) are also determined automatically for the selected pair and TF, based on volatility and selected indicator settings
To make a trade, you can also use the built-in “Support and Resistance Zones” tool, which displays ranges on the chart based on the modernized ATR, from which the price is more likely to rebound (here I also used my own approach, where in addition to the classic ATR formula, I also used volumes from certain crypto exchanges to determine more accurate price rebound zones)
These zones are also adjusted by AI - the algorithm compares several dozens of variations of these zones (with different settings) and chooses the one that best fits the current settings of the signal algorithm. For example, if the indicator is set up for frequent trades - the zones will be updated faster and will be less deep than if the indicator is set up for medium-term trading
If desired, you can customize the indicator manually using the corresponding section of the settings. Each paramater has a tooltip describing how and what it affects.
Statistisc panel
The panel can be divided into 2 conditional parts:
1) Statistics for each individual TP for the selected strategy. It shows the winrate and gross profit, if you fix a trade on a single target completely
2) Total trading result, if you trade clearly according to the strategy and fix the position by equal hours on 4 TPs. The total trading result is displayed for the current indicator settings, it also shows the best, worst and optimal of the possible indicator settings and the trading result of these settings on the side.
How do setup the indicator?
The indicator has preset settings for several major pairs and timeframes. These are fixed settings specifically selected for individual pairs and timeframes. You can use these presets, or you can choose one of the adaptive settings, which will AUTOMATICALLY select the best/optimal indicator settings.
I recommend choosing the “Adaptive Optimal” preset, as it uses more data to determine the optimal indicator settings and according to my observations this method works better in comparison to manual indicator settings or the “Adaptive Best” preset
Or you can use the manual settings, as mentioned earlier.
[SGM Return Distribution]Code Description
This Pine Script™ is designed to analyze the distribution of historical returns of a financial asset and project future confidence levels. It uses statistical techniques to estimate the probability of winning and losing as well as displaying confidence bands and distribution statistics.
User Entries
Length (252): The number of days used to calculate statistics.
Offset (20): Offset used to project future values.
Projection Days (10): Number of days projected into the future.
Smoothing Confidence Levels (10): Smoothing confidence bands.
Display Settings
Plot Distribution: Shows the distribution of returns.
Show Probabilities: Shows winning and losing probabilities.
Show Distribution Stats: Shows distribution statistics.
Show Confidence Bands: Shows confidence bands.
Show Confidence Lines: Shows confidence lines.
Calculations and Features
Distribution of Yields:
Calculates logarithmic returns and their statistics (average, volatility, skewness, kurtosis).
Projects the average and volatility over the projected number of days.
Displays the distribution of returns as a histogram.
Confidence Interval:
Uses the inv_norm function to calculate Z scores for different confidence levels.
Calculates the upper and lower bounds of the confidence bands.
Probability Display:
Calculates and displays win and loss probabilities based on the distribution of returns.
Statistics Display:
Shows key statistics such as mean, volatility, skewness and kurtosis.
Trust Bands and Lines:
Shows confidence bands and lines based on calculated confidence levels.
Mathematical Assumptions Used
Logarithmic Returns: Returns are calculated using the logarithm of prices, which is common for financial time series because it makes returns independent of price level.
Normal Distribution for Confidence Bands: Confidence interval calculations are based on the assumption that returns follow a normal distribution.
Average and Volatility Projection: Average returns and volatility are projected over a future period assuming they remain constant.
Skewness and Kurtosis: Although these measures are calculated for understanding the distribution of returns, they are not used in box projections but can provide additional information about the distribution of historical returns.
Use in Trading
Risk Estimation: Confidence bands can help estimate likely future price levels, which is crucial for determining strike levels and risk management.
Risk Management: Use confidence bands to set stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Probability Analysis: Win and loss probabilities can help assess a position's likelihood of success.
Potential Problems
Assumption of Normality for Confidence Bands: Financial returns do not always follow a normal distribution, especially in the presence of extreme events (fat tails).
Stationarity: Assuming that return statistics (average, volatility) remain constant over time can be erroneous in volatile market periods.
Limited Historical Data: Using a limited history (252 days) may not capture all possible behaviors of the asset.
Input Parameters: Results can be sensitive to the input parameters chosen (length, offset, etc.).
Auto Risk Manager
Auto Risk Manager
**Description:**
The "Auto Risk Manager" indicator is designed to assist traders in managing their risk and reward levels efficiently. This indicator is particularly beneficial for traders who want to automate their risk management process, ensuring they adhere to their trading plan without constantly monitoring the charts. It is tailored to help both novice and experienced traders by providing clear visual cues and automated calculations for stop loss and take profit levels.
**Purpose:**
The primary purpose of the Auto Risk Manager is to simplify and automate the process of setting stop loss and take profit levels based on user-defined risk parameters. By leveraging this tool, traders can ensure that they are consistently managing their trades according to their risk tolerance and trading strategy. This indicator helps traders avoid emotional decision-making, which can often lead to suboptimal trading outcomes.
**Functionality:**
The Auto Risk Manager provides the following key features:
1. **Trade Direction:** Allows the trader to specify the direction of the trade (Buy or Sell).
2. **Stop Loss and Take Profit Points:** Users can manually input their desired stop loss and take profit points.
3. **Risk Management:** Traders can enable risk management to automatically calculate stop loss and take profit levels based on their account balance, risk percentage, and desired risk-to-reward ratio.
4. **Visual Representation:** The indicator plots the entry price, stop loss, and take profit levels on the chart, providing a clear visual representation of the trade setup.
5. **Alerts:** The indicator generates alerts when the price hits the stop loss or take profit levels, ensuring that traders are promptly notified of important trade events.
6. **Customization:** Users can customize the appearance of the lines and labels, and choose to show or hide previous points.
**How It Works:**
- **Input Parameters:**
- **Trade Direction:** Select "Buy" or "Sell" to specify the trade direction.
- **Stop Loss and Take Profit Points:** Manually input the points for stop loss and take profit, or leave them blank to use the calculated values.
- **Use Risk Management:** Enable or disable the risk management feature.
- **Risk-to-Reward Ratio:** Specify the desired risk-to-reward ratio.
- **Account Balance:** Input the total account balance.
- **Risk Percentage:** Specify the percentage of the account balance to risk on each trade.
- **Visual Options:** Customize the colors of the entry, stop loss, and take profit lines, and choose to show or hide these lines and their corresponding labels.
- **Calculations:**
- If risk management is enabled, the indicator calculates the stop loss points based on the risk amount (account balance * risk percentage) and the current price. The take profit points are then calculated using the specified risk-to-reward ratio.
- If risk management is disabled, the indicator uses the manually input stop loss and take profit points.
- **Visual Representation:**
- The indicator plots the entry price as a horizontal line on the chart.
- The stop loss and take profit levels are plotted as horizontal lines above or below the entry price, depending on the trade direction.
- Labels showing the exact stop loss and take profit prices are also displayed, providing clear and immediate information.
- **Alerts:**
- The indicator sets up alerts to notify the trader when the price hits the stop loss or take profit levels. These alerts can be configured to trigger once per bar close, ensuring timely notifications.
**How It Helps Traders:**
The Auto Risk Manager simplifies the risk management process by automating the calculation and visualization of critical trade levels. This helps traders to:
- Maintain consistent risk management practices.
- Avoid emotional decision-making by predefining risk and reward levels.
- Save time by automating the calculation of stop loss and take profit levels.
- Stay informed with timely alerts for important trade events.
- Customize the visual representation of trade levels to suit their preferences.
**Instructions for Use:**
1. **Add the Indicator:** Add the "Auto Risk Manager" indicator to your TradingView chart.
2. **Configure Inputs:**
- Select the trade direction (Buy or Sell).
- Enter stop loss and take profit points if you want to use manual values.
- Enable risk management and configure the risk-to-reward ratio, account balance, and risk percentage if you want automatic calculations.
- Customize the visual settings as desired.
3. **Review Trade Levels:** The entry, stop loss, and take profit levels will be plotted on the chart. Review these levels to ensure they align with your trading strategy.
4. **Monitor Alerts:** Set up alerts to receive notifications when the price hits the stop loss or take profit levels.
5. **Execute Trades:** Use the plotted levels to guide your trade entries and exits, ensuring you adhere to your predefined risk management strategy.
The Auto Risk Manager is a powerful tool for traders looking to enhance their trading discipline and efficiency. By automating the risk management process, this indicator allows traders to focus on other aspects of their trading strategy while ensuring consistent adherence to their risk tolerance.
Automated Round Number Crossing Analysis [@Mishu]Hello, TradingView community! I'm thrilled to present the "Automated Round Number Crossing Analysis" script, a sophisticated tool designed to help traders identify and analyze key psychological thresholds in the financial markets. This indicator leverages the concept of round numbers to enhance trading strategies, providing a comprehensive analysis of price levels and their interactions.
Key Features:
Round Number Levels: This script automatically calculates and plots multiple round number levels based on a user-defined middle price (MRN) and gap value. These levels are displayed on the chart, allowing traders to visually identify significant price points.
Crossing Analysis: The script counts various types of crossings for each round number level within a specified lookback period:
Cross Up: The price crosses above the level.
Cross Down: The price crosses below the level.
High Over Close Below: The high of the bar is above the level, but the close is below.
Low Under Close Above: The low of the bar is below the level, but the close is above.
Table Display: Users can enable a detailed table that summarizes the crossing counts and percentages for each level. The table is highly customizable, with options to adjust its position, text size, and the data displayed.
Customizable Plot Settings: Users have the flexibility to show or hide the levels and their labels. The script provides various customization options for label positions, colors, and text styles, ensuring that the indicator can be tailored to individual preferences.
Comprehensive Analysis: By analyzing price interactions with round number levels, traders can gain insights into potential support and resistance zones. This can be particularly useful for developing and refining trading strategies.
Table Display Details:
The table shows the following information for each level:
Level Name: Identifies the round number level.
Cross Up Count: Number of times the price crossed above the level.
Cross Down Count: Number of times the price crossed below the level.
High Over Close Below Count: Number of times the high was above but the close was below the level.
Low Under Close Above Count: Number of times the low was below but the close was above the level.
Total Crossings: The sum of all crossing counts for the level.
Percentage of Total Crossings: The percentage of the total crossings that each level represents, providing a relative measure of the activity at each level.
How It Works:
Input Settings:
Starting Price (Middle) (MRN): The central price around which round numbers are calculated.
Gap: The interval between each round number level.
Lookback Period: The number of bars to consider for crossing analysis.
Table and plot customization options to adjust the display according to user preferences.
Level Calculation: The script calculates multiple levels above and below the MRN using the specified gap.
Crossing Counts: The script uses built-in Pine Script functions to count the various types of crossings for each level. It tracks these counts over the lookback period, updating them as new bars are added.
Table Display: If enabled, a table is displayed on the chart showing the crossing counts and percentages for each level. This table helps traders quickly understand the significance of each level.
Labels and Plots: The script plots the levels on the chart and optionally displays labels indicating the level names and their corresponding prices. These labels are updated in real-time as the chart evolves.
Usage:
Support and Resistance Identification: The indicator helps traders identify potential support and resistance zones based on round numbers, which are often psychological levels in the market.
Strategy Development: By analyzing how often the price interacts with these levels, traders can develop strategies that take advantage of these key points.
Market Analysis: The comprehensive crossing analysis provides deeper insights into market behavior, allowing for more informed trading decisions.
Example Use Case:
Imagine you are trading the S&P 500 and want to identify key levels where the price might reverse or accelerate. By setting the MRN to the current price and adjusting the gap to a suitable value (e.g., 50 points), the script will plot horizontal lines at these intervals. The crossing analysis will then show how often the price interacts with these levels, helping you pinpoint significant zones for potential trades.
This script is a valuable addition to any trader's toolkit, providing a structured way to analyze round number levels and their impact on price action. I hope you find it useful for your trading activities. Happy trading!
9:30 Opening Price MarkerIndicator Name: 9:30 Opening Price Marker
Description:
The "9:30 Opening Price Marker" is a custom indicator for TradingView that highlights the opening price at 9:30 AM in the UTC-4 time zone (Eastern Daylight Time) on the chart. It helps traders and analysts easily identify and track the price level at which the market opens each day.
Features:
Timezone Conversion: The indicator converts the current time to the UTC-4 timezone (Eastern Daylight Time) to accurately determine the 9:30 AM opening price.
Visual Marker: It visually marks the opening price with a dotted line on the chart, making it prominent for quick reference.
Label: Additionally, it includes a label next to the opening price line, indicating "9:30 Opening Price", enhancing clarity and usability.
Overlay: The indicator is designed to overlay on the price chart, ensuring it doesn't clutter other technical analysis tools or indicators.
Usage:
Day-to-Day Analysis: Traders can use this indicator to quickly gauge market sentiment at the daily opening, which can influence intraday trading strategies.
Reference Point: Acts as a reference point for identifying price movements and potential trading opportunities relative to the day's opening price.
Time-Specific Insights: Provides insights into price action immediately following the market open, aiding in decision-making based on early trading activity.
Installation: Copy the provided Pine Script code into TradingView's Pine Editor, save the script as an indicator, and apply it to your chart.
Disclaimer : This indicator is intended for informational purposes only and should not be solely relied upon for trading decisions. Always consider multiple sources of information and perform thorough analysis before executing trades.
Curved Smart Money Concepts Probability (Zeiierman)█ Overview
The Curved Smart Money Concepts Probability indicator, developed by Zeiierman, is a sophisticated trading tool designed to leverage the principles of Smart Money trading. This indicator identifies key market structure points and adapts to changing market conditions, providing traders with actionable insights into market trends and potential reversals. The trading tool stands out due to its unique curved structure and advanced probability features, which enhance its effectiveness and usability for traders.
█ How It Works
The indicator operates by analyzing market data to identify pivotal moments where institutional investors might be influencing price movements. It employs a combination of adaptive trend lengths, multipliers for sensitivity adjustments, and pivot periods to accurately capture market structure shifts. The indicator calculates upper and lower bands based on adaptive sizes and identifies zones of overbought (premium) and oversold (discount) conditions.
Key Features of Probability Calculations
The Curved Smart Money Concepts Probability indicator integrates sophisticated probability calculations to enhance trading decision-making:
Win/Loss Tracking: The indicator tracks the number of successful (win) and unsuccessful (loss) trades based on the identified market structure points (ChoCH, SMS, BMS). This provides a historical context of the indicator's performance.
Probability Percentages: For each market structure point (ChoCH, SMS, BMS), the indicator calculates the probability of the next move being successful or not. This is presented as a percentage, giving traders a quantifiable measure of confidence in the signals.
Dynamic Adaptation: The probability calculations adapt to market conditions by considering the frequency and success rate of the signals, allowing traders to adjust their strategies based on the indicator’s historical accuracy.
Visual Representation: Probabilities are displayed on the chart, helping traders quickly assess the likelihood of future price movements based on past performance.
Key benefits of the Curved Structure
The Curved Smart Money Concepts Probability indicator features a unique curved structure that offers several advantages over traditional linear structures:
Noise Reduction: The curved structure smooths out short-term market fluctuations, reducing the noise often seen in linear structures. This helps traders focus on the true trend direction rather than getting distracted by minor price movements.
Adaptive Sensitivity: The curved structure adjusts its sensitivity based on market conditions. This means it can effectively capture both short-term and long-term trends by dynamically adapting to changes in market volatility, something linear structures struggle with.
Enhanced Trend Detection: By providing a more gradual transition between market phases, the curved structure helps in identifying trends more accurately. This is particularly useful in volatile markets where linear structures might give false signals due to their rigid nature.
Improved Market Structure Analysis: The curved structure's ability to adapt and smooth out irregularities provides a clearer picture of the overall market structure. This clarity is essential for identifying premium and discount zones, as well as mid-range support and resistance levels, which are crucial for effective ICT Smart Money Trading.
█ Terminology
ChoCH (Change of Character): Indicates a potential reversal in market direction. It is identified when the price breaks a significant high or low, suggesting a shift from a bullish to bearish trend or vice versa.
SMS (Smart Money Shift): Represents the transition phase in market structure where smart money begins accumulating or distributing assets. It typically follows a BMS and indicates the start of a new trend.
BMS (Bullish/Bearish Market Structure): Confirms the trend direction. Bullish Market Structure (BMS) confirms an uptrend, while Bearish Market Structure (BMS) confirms a downtrend. It is characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows (bullish) or lower highs and lower lows (bearish).
Premium: A zone where the price is considered overbought. It is calculated as the upper range of the current market structure and indicates a potential area for selling or shorting.
Mid Range: The midpoint between the high and low of the market structure. It often acts as a support or resistance level, helping traders identify potential reversal or continuation points.
Discount: A zone where the price is considered oversold. It is calculated as the lower range of the current market structure and indicates a potential area for buying or going long.
█ How to Use
Identifying Trends and Reversals: Traders can use the indicator to identify the overall market trend and potential reversal points. By observing the ChoCH, SMS, and BMS signals, traders can gauge whether the market is transitioning into a new trend or continuing the current trend.
Example Strategies
⚪ Trend Following Strategy:
Identify the current market trend using BMS signals.
Enter a trade in the direction of the trend when the price retraces to the mid-range zone.
Set a stop-loss just below the mid-range (for long trades) or above the mid-range (for short trades).
Take profit in the premium/discount zone or when a ChoCH signal indicates a potential reversal.
⚪ Reversal Strategy:
Wait for a ChoCH signal to identify a potential market reversal.
Enter a trade in the direction of the new trend as indicated by the SMS signal.
Set a stop-loss just beyond the recent high (for short trades) or low (for long trades).
Take profit when the price reaches the premium or discount zone opposite to the entry.
█ Settings
Curved Trend Length: Determines the length of the trend used to calculate the adaptive size of the structure. Adjusting this length allows traders to capture either longer-term trends (for smoother curves) or short-term trends (for more reactive curves).
Curved Multiplier: Scales the adjustment factors for the upper and lower bands. Increasing the multiplier widens the bands, reducing sensitivity to price changes. Decreasing it narrows the bands, making the structure more responsive.
Pivot Period: Sets the period for capturing trends. A higher period captures broader trends, while a lower period focuses on short-term trends.
Response Period: Adjusts the structure’s responsiveness. A low value focuses on short-term changes, while a high value smoothens the structure.
Premium/Discount Range: Allows toggling between displaying the active range or previous range to analyze real-time or historical levels.
Structure Candles: Enables the display of curved structure candles on the chart, providing a modified view of price action.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
BE-NSE-Distributed Straddle Intraday Trading StrategyHerewith publishing the script (not the Indicator!) for the benift of Option Traders. I call this a script as this doesn't perform any kind of analysis of candle data and provide general BUY | SELL information. This Script is based on the TRUE VALUES concept which is nothing but LTP.
Idea Behind this Script:
As an option seller i need the lower risk option premium to trade. so that, time can work in our favor. basic question which we get at the first is which option to choose out of many available.
If traders feel the question is apt then this script is for them.
Logic Behind this script:
Upon Market Open, script in the BACKEND ( Under the hood ) deployes 60 possible combinations of STRADDLES for sampling, and continue to monitor the LTP movements and compares it against opposite pairs. lets say out of 30 Straddle options one of the Straddle it picked is ATM CE VS ATM PE. for 1 rs move in underlying how much impact is happening in CE VS PE.
This simple anlysis is done at every 30 seconds. once the Analysis is complete it picks 4 options 2 on the CALL side and 2 on the PUT side, which script feels the movement of prices are smooth. SMOOTH refers that time decay that can work in our favor..
Calculations behid the script:
lets say BNF LTP is 52000 at 9:20 AM, and one of the pair script took for sampling was ATM CE vs PE which are having the LTP of 100 each.
At 9:35 AM, BNF is trading at 52075, and ATM CE is reading the LTP of 122 and ATM PUT is reading the LTP of 70. ideally LTP of Call should be around 135 and Put should be around 65 considering the usual delta of 0.48 . Net Money Index for this Pair Sample is 8
Call Side => 100 - 122 = -22
Put Side => 100 - 70 = 30
Money Index => 30 - 22 = 8 for 15 Min
This Money index is calculated across choosen samples and the Option strikes is provided as an output which has mere possiblity of working in Options Seller's favor.
How to Read the Output:
For the choosen strikes from the time of Entry (Suggested Entry time by script) till the current time, the bottom pane plots the Money index as columns. Green Columns indicate that how much option premium eroded due to time decay. Red Columns indicate that how much Option premium increased during the time.
Note: Script dynamically calculate the strikes and suggests in realtime.
WARNING or a Humble Request:
For those who don't understand the word "Repaint" how it works in Pine Script. plz don't consider using this script. For those who wish to understand I have kept the Observer mode in the settings which shall guide you on why the Money Index shown on the chart when the MARKET IS CLOSED is different than when the MARKET IS OPEN (Realtime).
Disclaimer:
I have tested the script only in BNF and not sure if this works on Nifty, FinNifty or others. you may still try and plz do provide the feedback for improvising the script.
----- BreathEasy --------
The information contained in my scripts/indicators/ideas does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My scripts/indicators/ideas are only for educational purposes!
Moving Average Z-Score Suite [BackQuant]Moving Average Z-Score Suite
1. What is this indicator
The Moving Average Z-Score Suite is a versatile indicator designed to help traders identify and capitalize on market trends by utilizing a variety of moving averages. This indicator transforms selected moving averages into a Z-Score oscillator, providing clear signals for potential buy and sell opportunities. The indicator includes options to choose from eleven different moving average types, each offering unique benefits and characteristics. It also provides additional features such as standard deviation levels, extreme levels, and divergence detection, enhancing its utility in various market conditions.
2. What is a Z-Score
A Z-Score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values. It is measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean. For instance, a Z-Score of 1.0 means the value is one standard deviation above the mean, while a Z-Score of -1.0 indicates it is one standard deviation below the mean. In the context of financial markets, Z-Scores can be used to identify overbought or oversold conditions by determining how far a particular value (such as a moving average) deviates from its historical mean.
3. What moving averages can be used
The Moving Average Z-Score Suite allows users to select from the following eleven moving averages:
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Hull Moving Average (HMA)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA)
Running Moving Average (RMA)
Linear Regression Curve (LINREG) (This script can be found standalone )
Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA)
Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA)
Kalman Hull Moving Average (KHMA)
T3 Moving Average
Each of these moving averages has distinct properties and reacts differently to price changes, allowing traders to select the one that best fits their trading style and market conditions.
4. Why Turning a Moving Average into a Z-Score is Innovative and Its Benefits
Transforming a moving average into a Z-Score is an innovative approach because it normalizes the moving average values, making them more comparable across different periods and instruments. This normalization process helps in identifying extreme price movements and mean-reversion opportunities more effectively. By converting the moving average into a Z-Score, traders can better gauge the relative strength or weakness of a trend and detect potential reversals. This method enhances the traditional moving average analysis by adding a statistical perspective, providing clearer and more objective trading signals.
5. How It Can Be Used in the Context of a Trading System
In a trading system, it can be used to generate buy and sell signals based on the Z-Score values. When the Z-Score crosses above zero, it indicates a potential buying opportunity, suggesting that the price is above its mean and possibly trending upward. Conversely, a Z-Score crossing below zero signals a potential selling opportunity, indicating that the price is below its mean and might be trending downward. Additionally, the indicator's ability to show standard deviation levels and extreme levels helps traders set profit targets and stop-loss levels, improving risk management and trade planning.
6. How It Can Be Used for Trend Following
For trend-following strategies, it can be particularly useful. The Z-Score oscillator helps traders identify the strength and direction of a trend. By monitoring the Z-Score and its rate of change, traders can confirm the persistence of a trend and make informed decisions to enter or exit trades. The indicator's divergence detection feature further enhances trend-following by identifying potential reversals before they occur, allowing traders to capitalize on trend shifts. By providing a clear and quantifiable measure of trend strength, this indicator supports disciplined and systematic trend-following strategies.
No backtests for this indicator due to the many options and ways it can be used,
Enjoy
Trend Forecasting - The Quant Science🌏 Trend Forecasting | ENG 🌏
This plug-in acts as a statistical filter, adding new information to your chart that will allow you to quickly verify the direction of a trend and the probability with which the price will be above or below the average in the future, helping you to uncover probable market inefficiencies.
🧠 Model calculation
The model calculates the arithmetic mean in relation to positive and negative events within the available sample for the selected time series. Where a positive event is defined as a closing price greater than the average, and a negative event as a closing price less than the average. Once all events have been calculated, the probabilities are extrapolated by relating each event.
Example
Positive event A: 70
Negative event B: 30
Total events: 100
Probabilities A: (100 / 70) x 100 = 70%
Probabilities B: (100 / 30) x 100 = 30%
Event A has a 70% probability of occurring compared to Event B which has a 30% probability.
🔍 Information Filter
The data on the graph show the future probabilities of prices being above average (default in green) and the probabilities of prices being below average (default in red).
The information that can be quickly retrieved from this indicator is:
1. Trend: Above-average prices together with a constant of data in green greater than 50% + 1 indicate that the observed historical series shows a bullish trend. The probability is correlated proportionally to the value of the data; the higher and increasing the expected value, the greater the observed bullish trend. On the other hand, a below-average price together with a red-coloured data constant show quantitative data regarding the presence of a bearish trend.
2. Future Probability: By analysing the data, it is possible to find the probability with which the price will be above or below the average in the future. In green are classified the probabilities that the price will be higher than the average, in red are classified the probabilities that the price will be lower than the average.
🔫 Operational Filter .
The indicator can be used operationally in the search for investment or trading opportunities given its ability to identify an inefficiency within the observed data sample.
⬆ Bullish forecast
For bullish trades, the inefficiency will appear as a historical series with a bullish trend, with high probability of a bullish trend in the future that is currently below the average.
⬇ Bearish forecast
For short trades, the inefficiency will appear as a historical series with a bearish trend, with a high probability of a bearish trend in the future that is currently above the average.
📚 Settings
Input: via the Input user interface, it is possible to adjust the periods (1 to 500) with which the average is to be calculated. By default the periods are set to 200, which means that the average is calculated by taking the last 200 periods.
Style: via the Style user interface it is possible to adjust the colour and switch a specific output on or off.
🇮🇹Previsione Della Tendenza Futura | ITA 🇮🇹
Questo plug-in funge da filtro statistico, aggiungendo nuove informazioni al tuo grafico che ti permetteranno di verificare rapidamente tendenza di un trend, probabilità con la quale il prezzo si troverà sopra o sotto la media in futuro aiutandoti a scovare probabili inefficienze di mercato.
🧠 Calcolo del modello
Il modello calcola la media aritmetica in relazione con gli eventi positivi e negativi all'intero del campione disponibile per la serie storica selezionata. Dove per evento positivo si intende un prezzo alla chiusura maggiore della media, mentre per evento negativo si intende un prezzo alla chiusura minore della media. Calcolata la totalità degli eventi le probabilità vengono estrapolate rapportando ciascun evento.
Esempio
Evento positivo A: 70
Evento negativo B: 30
Totale eventi : 100
Formula A: (100 / 70) x 100 = 70%
Formula B: (100 / 30) x 100 = 30%
Evento A ha una probabilità del 70% di realizzarsi rispetto all' Evento B che ha una probabilità pari al 30%.
🔍 Filtro informativo
I dati sul grafico mostrano le probabilità future che i prezzi siano sopra la media (di default in verde) e le probabilità che i prezzi siano sotto la media (di default in rosso).
Le informazioni che si possono rapidamente reperire da questo indicatore sono:
1. Trend: I prezzi sopra la media insieme ad una costante di dati in verde maggiori al 50% + 1 indicano che la serie storica osservata presenta un trend rialzista. La probabilità è correlata proporzionalmente al valore del dato; tanto più sarà alto e crescente il valore atteso e maggiore sarà la tendenza rialzista osservata. Viceversa, un prezzo sotto la media insieme ad una costante di dati classificati in colore rosso mostrano dati quantitativi riguardo la presenza di una tendenza ribassista.
2. Probabilità future: analizzando i dati è possibile reperire la probabilità con cui il prezzo si troverà sopra o sotto la media in futuro. In verde vengono classificate le probabilità che il prezzo sarà maggiore alla media, in rosso vengono classificate le probabilità che il prezzo sarà minore della media.
🔫 Filtro operativo
L' indicatore può essere utilizzato a livello operativo nella ricerca di opportunità di investimento o di trading vista la capacità di identificare un inefficienza all'interno del campione di dati osservato.
⬆ Previsione rialzista
Per operatività di tipo rialzista l'inefficienza apparirà come una serie storica a tendenza rialzista, con alte probabilità di tendenza rialzista in futuro che attualmente si trova al di sotto della media.
⬇ Previsione ribassista
Per operatività di tipo short l'inefficienza apparirà come una serie storica a tendenza ribassista, con alte probabilità di tendenza ribassista in futuro che si trova attualmente sopra la media.
📚 Impostazioni
Input: tramite l'interfaccia utente Input è possibile regolare i periodi (da 1 a 500) con cui calcolare la media. Di default i periodi sono impostati sul valore di 200, questo significa che la media viene calcolata prendendo gli ultimi 200 periodi.
Style: tramite l'interfaccia utente Style è possibile regolare il colore e attivare o disattivare un specifico output.
ARIMA Indicator with Optional SmoothingOverview
The ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) Indicator is a powerful tool used to forecast future price movements by combining differencing, autoregressive, and moving average components. This indicator is designed to help traders identify trends and potential reversal points by analyzing the historical price data.
Key Features
AutoRegressive Component (AR): Utilizes past values to predict future prices.
Moving Average Component (MA): Averages past price differences to smooth out noise.
Differencing: Reduces non-stationarity in the time series data.
Optional Smoothing: Applies EMA to the ARIMA output for a smoother signal.
Customizable Parameters: Allows users to adjust AR and MA orders, differencing periods, and smoothing lengths.
Concepts Underlying the Calculations
Differencing: Subtracts previous prices from current prices to remove trends and seasonality, making the data stationary.
AutoRegressive Component (AR): Predicts future prices based on a linear combination of past values.
Moving Average Component (MA): Uses past forecast errors to refine future predictions.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Applies more weight to recent prices, providing a smoother and more responsive signal.
How It Works
The ARIMA Indicator first calculates the differenced series to achieve stationarity. Then, it computes the simple moving average (SMA) of this differenced series. The indicator uses the AR and MA components to adjust the SMA, creating an approximation of the ARIMA model. Finally, an optional smoothing step using EMA can be applied to the ARIMA approximation to produce a smoother signal.
How Traders Can Use It
Traders can use the ARIMA Indicator to:
Identify Trends: Detect emerging trends by observing the direction of the ARIMA line.
Spot Reversals: Look for divergences between the ARIMA line and the price to identify potential reversal points.
Generate Trading Signals: Use crossovers between the ARIMA line and the price to generate buy or sell signals.
Filter Noise: Enable the optional smoothing to filter out market noise and focus on significant price movements.
Example Usage Instructions
Add the ARIMA Indicator to your chart.
Adjust the input parameters to suit your trading strategy:
Set the SMA Length (e.g., 14).
Choose the Differencing Period (e.g., 1).
Define the AR Order (p) and MA Order (q) (e.g., 1).
Configure the Smoothing Length if smoothing is desired (e.g., 5).
Enable or disable smoothing as needed.
Observe the ARIMA line (blue) and compare it to the price chart.
Use the ARIMA line to identify trends and potential reversals.
Implement trading decisions based on the ARIMA line’s behavior relative to the price.
Markov Chain Trend IndicatorOverview
The Markov Chain Trend Indicator utilizes the principles of Markov Chain processes to analyze stock price movements and predict future trends. By calculating the probabilities of transitioning between different market states (Uptrend, Downtrend, and Sideways), this indicator provides traders with valuable insights into market dynamics.
Key Features
State Identification: Differentiates between Uptrend, Downtrend, and Sideways states based on price movements.
Transition Probability Calculation: Calculates the probability of transitioning from one state to another using historical data.
Real-time Dashboard: Displays the probabilities of each state on the chart, helping traders make informed decisions.
Background Color Coding: Visually represents the current market state with background colors for easy interpretation.
Concepts Underlying the Calculations
Markov Chains: A stochastic process where the probability of moving to the next state depends only on the current state, not on the sequence of events that preceded it.
Logarithmic Returns: Used to normalize price changes and identify states based on significant movements.
Transition Matrices: Utilized to store and calculate the probabilities of moving from one state to another.
How It Works
The indicator first calculates the logarithmic returns of the stock price to identify significant movements. Based on these returns, it determines the current state (Uptrend, Downtrend, or Sideways). It then updates the transition matrices to keep track of how often the price moves from one state to another. Using these matrices, the indicator calculates the probabilities of transitioning to each state and displays this information on the chart.
How Traders Can Use It
Traders can use the Markov Chain Trend Indicator to:
Identify Market Trends: Quickly determine if the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or sideways state.
Predict Future Movements: Use the transition probabilities to forecast potential market movements and make informed trading decisions.
Enhance Trading Strategies: Combine with other technical indicators to refine entry and exit points based on predicted trends.
Example Usage Instructions
Add the Markov Chain Trend Indicator to your TradingView chart.
Observe the background color to quickly identify the current market state:
Green for Uptrend, Red for Downtrend, Gray for Sideways
Check the dashboard label to see the probabilities of transitioning to each state.
Use these probabilities to anticipate market movements and adjust your trading strategy accordingly.
Combine the indicator with other technical analysis tools for more robust decision-making.
SD Distance Mean BetaThe "SD Distance Mean Indicator" is a currently a developing tool designed to enhance trading precision by dynamically adjusting to market conditions. This indicator provides insights into price deviations from the mean, helping traders make inf OANDA:XAUUSD ormed decisions based on significant price movements.
Key Features:
Adaptive Length Adjustment:
The indicator dynamically adjusts the calculation period based on the Average True Range (ATR). This allows it to respond to different market conditions, using a shorter length during consolidations and a longer length during trends.
Standardized Distance Calculation:
The indicator calculates the distance of the current price from the mean and standardizes it using the standard deviation. This standardized distance is then smoothed to reduce noise and provide clearer signals.
Dynamic Standard Deviation (SD) Levels:
SD levels are adjusted dynamically based on ATR, providing a more accurate representation of price volatility. These levels are further smoothed to minimize wiggling on shorter timeframes like the 30-minute chart.
Visual Cues for Trading Signals:
The indicator plots multiple SD levels (+1, +2, +3, +4 and their negatives) and highlights significant price movements. When the standardized distance line hits or exceeds these levels, it signals potential overbought or oversold conditions.
Customizable Smoothing: The smoothing length for both the standardized distance and SD levels can be customized to suit different trading strategies and timeframes. Default values are set to provide a balance between responsiveness and stability.
Usage:
Identifying Reversals : The indicator helps in spotting potential reversal points. When the smoothed standardized distance line hits +2 SD or -2 SD and rebounds, it signals a possible price reversal back towards the mean.
Confirming Trends: Dynamic SD levels provide a clear visual representation of price volatility, helping traders confirm trend strength and potential breakout points.
Enhancing Precision: By dynamically adjusting to market conditions, the indicator enhances trading precision, making it suitable for various market environments.
This script is an essential addition to any trader's toolkit, offering a blend of adaptability, precision, and visual clarity to support more informed trading decisions.
Settings:
Short Length: Period length used during consolidations.
Long Length: Period length used during trends.
ATR Length: Length for ATR calculation.
ATR Threshold: Threshold value to switch between short and long lengths.
Smoothing Length: Length for smoothing the standardized distance.
SD Smoothing Length: Length for smoothing the dynamic SD levels.
By using this indicator, traders can leverage its adaptive capabilities to navigate various market conditions effectively and enhance their trading performance on XAUUSD and other assets.
