Quarterly-Inspired EMA Swing Strategy🚀 Quarterly EMA Strategy: Simplified
This strategy uses quarterly trends and pullbacks to EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) to buy low and sell high in strong uptrends (longs) or short weak stocks in strong downtrends.
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🔧 Core Setup
• Timeframe: Quarterly (1 candle = 3 months or ~65 trading days).
• Stocks: Liquid NSE F&O stocks (e.g., Reliance, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, etc.).
• Indicators Used:
• 10-quarter EMA → Shorter-term trend.
• 21-quarter EMA → Long-term trend.
• 13-week EMA → Weekly confirmation.
• ATR → For stop-loss.
• VIX → Volatility control.
• Relative Strength vs Nifty → Filter strong/weak stocks.
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🟢 LONG SETUP (Buy on Pullback in Uptrend)
✅ Conditions:
1. Quarterly Trend is Bullish
Price > 10Q EMA > 21Q EMA
2. Pullback Happens
Price closes within 3% of 10Q or 21Q EMA, or touches it and bounces.
• E.g., Stock close = 8200, 10Q EMA = 8000 → Pullback = Valid (2.5% gap)
3. Previous Trend is Strong
• Last 1-2 quarters were making higher highs OR closing well above 10Q EMA
4. Candle Shows Rejection
• Lower wick (buying pressure from EMA)
• Small body (<5% total candle range)
5. Market Support Filters
• Nifty > its 4-quarter EMA (sloping upward)
• India VIX < 20 (low panic)
• Stock’s last 2 quarters’ return > 1.1× Nifty’s return
6. Weekly Confirmation
• Price > 13-week EMA
• 13W EMA is rising
• Bullish pattern in last 2 candles
• Volume ≥ 75% of 20-week average
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📈 Example (Bajaj Finance):
• Close: 8200,
• 10Q EMA: 8000 (bullish),
• 21Q EMA: 7800
• Weekly price > 13W EMA → Confirmation ✅
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🎯 Trade Plan (Long):
• Entry: 8200 (Quarterly) or near 13W EMA (Weekly)
• Stop-Loss: 2× ATR below 21Q EMA or candle low
• Target: 2:1 reward
• Exit 1: Book 50% at target
• Exit 2: Trail 21Q EMA
• Optional Hedge: Buy Nifty PUT if VIX > 15
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🔴 SHORT SETUP (Sell on Pullback in Downtrend)
✅ Conditions:
1. Quarterly Trend is Bearish
Price < 10Q EMA < 21Q EMA
2. Pullback to EMA
Price closes within 3% of 10Q or 21Q EMA, or touches and gets rejected
3. Prior Trend is Down
Last 1-2 quarters had lower lows or closing >5% below 10Q EMA
4. Bearish Candle Setup
• Upper wick (rejection from EMA)
• Small body
5. Market Support Filters
• Nifty < its 4-quarter EMA (sloping down)
• India VIX < 20
• Stock’s 2-quarter return < 0.9× Nifty’s return
6. Weekly Confirmation
• Price < 13-week EMA
• 13W EMA is falling
• Bearish candles (engulfing, lower highs)
• Volume ≥ 75% of 20-week average
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📉 Example (Vodafone Idea):
• Close: ₹8
• 10Q EMA: ₹8.2 → Close is 2.5% below
• Weekly close < 13W EMA
• Bearish candle → Confirmation ✅
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🔻 Trade Plan (Short):
• Entry: 8
• Stop-Loss: 2× ATR above 21Q EMA or candle high
• Target: 2:1 reward
• Exit 1: Book 50% at target
• Exit 2: Trail 21Q EMA
• Optional Hedge: Buy Nifty CALL if VIX > 15
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📊 Position Sizing (Same for Long & Short):
• Risk per trade: 0.5–1% of total capital
• Example:
• Capital = ₹10 lakh
• Risk = ₹10,000
• Stop = 800 points → Buy 12 shares
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✅ Exit Rules Summary
Komut dosyalarını "美元未来10天走势预测" için ara
Trend Display Table (with Change Alerts)📌 Indicator: Trend Display Table (with Change Alerts)
This indicator helps identify trend direction based on a 15-minute 20 SMA compared against a 10 EMA applied to that SMA.
Trend Logic:
Bullish → 20 SMA crosses above 10 EMA (on SMA values)
Bearish → 20 SMA crosses below 10 EMA (on SMA values)
Neutral → No crossover (trend continues from previous state)
Display:
A compact trend table appears on the chart (top-right), showing the current trend with customizable colors, font size, and background.
Alerts:
Alerts are triggered only when the trend changes (from Bullish → Bearish or Bearish → Bullish).
This prevents repeated alerts on every bar.
✅ Useful for:
Confirming higher timeframe trend bias
Filtering trades in choppy markets
Getting notified instantly when the trend flips
Deviation from Mid MA5 & MA10 (%)Title:
Deviation from Mid-Price MA5 & MA10 (%)
Description:
This script calculates and displays the percentage deviation of the current mid-price from its 5-day and 10-day simple moving averages.
The mid-price is defined as the average of the open and close prices: (Open + Close) / 2
Instead of relying on traditional close-based MAs, this version uses mid-price to better reflect actual price flow by incorporating both the opening and closing values.
Main features:
Displays % deviation from both 5-day and 10-day mid-price moving averages
Better alignment with intraday reality due to gap-sensitive mid-price base
Smooths out erratic closing spikes for clearer signals
Helps identify overextended moves and potential pullback zones
Included lines:
Deviation from 5-day Mid MA
Deviation from 10-day Mid MA
Zero baseline for reference
Recommended for:
Traders seeking a cleaner measure of price deviation
Short-term pullback or re-entry strategy users
Anyone analyzing steady, low-volatility uptrends
Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy - Portfolio CalculatorTHE ALL WEATHER STRATEGY INDICATOR: A GUIDE TO RAY DALIO'S LEGENDARY PORTFOLIO APPROACH
Introduction: The Genesis of Financial Resilience
In the sprawling corridors of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund managing over 150 billion dollars in assets, Ray Dalio conceived what would become one of the most influential investment strategies of the modern era. The All Weather Strategy, born from decades of market observation and rigorous backtesting, represents a paradigm shift from traditional portfolio construction methods that have dominated Wall Street since Harry Markowitz's seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.
Unlike conventional approaches that chase returns through market timing or stock picking, the All Weather Strategy embraces a fundamental truth that has humbled countless investors throughout history: nobody can consistently predict the future direction of markets. Instead of fighting this uncertainty, Dalio's approach harnesses it, creating a portfolio designed to perform reasonably well across all economic environments, hence the evocative name "All Weather."
The strategy emerged from Bridgewater's extensive research into economic cycles and asset class behavior, culminating in what Dalio describes as "the Holy Grail of investing" in his bestselling book "Principles" (Dalio, 2017). This Holy Grail isn't about achieving spectacular returns, but rather about achieving consistent, risk-adjusted returns that compound steadily over time, much like the tortoise defeating the hare in Aesop's timeless fable.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION
The All Weather Strategy's origins trace back to the tumultuous economic periods of the 1970s and 1980s, when traditional portfolio construction methods proved inadequate for navigating simultaneous inflation and recession. Raymond Thomas Dalio, born in 1949 in Queens, New York, founded Bridgewater Associates from his Manhattan apartment in 1975, initially focusing on currency and fixed-income consulting for corporate clients.
Dalio's early experiences during the 1970s stagflation period profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. Unlike many of his contemporaries who viewed inflation and deflation as opposing forces, Dalio recognized that both conditions could coexist with either economic growth or contraction, creating four distinct economic environments rather than the traditional two-factor models that dominated academic finance.
The conceptual breakthrough came in the late 1980s when Dalio began systematically analyzing asset class performance across different economic regimes. Working with a small team of researchers, Bridgewater developed sophisticated models that decomposed economic conditions into growth and inflation components, then mapped historical asset class returns against these regimes. This research revealed that traditional portfolio construction, heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds, left investors vulnerable to specific economic scenarios.
The formal All Weather Strategy emerged in 1996 when Bridgewater was approached by a wealthy family seeking a portfolio that could protect their wealth across various economic conditions without requiring active management or market timing. Unlike Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund, which relied on active trading and leverage, the All Weather approach needed to be completely passive and unleveraged while still providing adequate diversification.
Dalio and his team spent months developing and testing various allocation schemes, ultimately settling on the 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 framework that balances risk contributions rather than dollar amounts. This approach was revolutionary because it focused on risk budgeting—ensuring that no single asset class dominated the portfolio's risk profile—rather than the traditional approach of equal dollar allocations or market-cap weighting.
The strategy's first institutional implementation began in 1996 with a family office client, followed by gradual expansion to other wealthy families and eventually institutional investors. By 2005, Bridgewater was managing over $15 billion in All Weather assets, making it one of the largest systematic strategy implementations in institutional investing.
The 2008 financial crisis provided the ultimate test of the All Weather methodology. While the S&P 500 declined by 37% and many hedge funds suffered double-digit losses, the All Weather strategy generated positive returns, validating Dalio's risk-balancing approach. This performance during extreme market stress attracted significant institutional attention, leading to rapid asset growth in subsequent years.
The strategy's theoretical foundations evolved throughout the 2000s as Bridgewater's research team, led by co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and Bob Prince, refined the economic framework and incorporated insights from behavioral economics and complexity theory. Their research, published in numerous institutional white papers, demonstrated that traditional portfolio optimization methods consistently underperformed simpler risk-balanced approaches across various time periods and market conditions.
Academic validation came through partnerships with leading business schools and collaboration with prominent economists. The strategy's risk parity principles influenced an entire generation of institutional investors, leading to the creation of numerous risk parity funds managing hundreds of billions in aggregate assets.
In recent years, the democratization of sophisticated financial tools has made All Weather-style investing accessible to individual investors through ETFs and systematic platforms. The availability of high-quality, low-cost ETFs covering each required asset class has eliminated many of the barriers that previously limited sophisticated portfolio construction to institutional investors.
The development of advanced portfolio management software and platforms like TradingView has further democratized access to institutional-quality analytics and implementation tools. The All Weather Strategy Indicator represents the culmination of this trend, providing individual investors with capabilities that previously required teams of portfolio managers and risk analysts.
Understanding the Four Economic Seasons
The All Weather Strategy's theoretical foundation rests on Dalio's observation that all economic environments can be characterized by two primary variables: economic growth and inflation. These variables create four distinct "economic seasons," each favoring different asset classes. Rising growth benefits stocks and commodities, while falling growth favors bonds. Rising inflation helps commodities and inflation-protected securities, while falling inflation benefits nominal bonds and stocks.
This framework, detailed extensively in Bridgewater's research papers from the 1990s, suggests that by holding assets that perform well in each economic season, an investor can create a portfolio that remains resilient regardless of which season unfolds. The elegance lies not in predicting which season will occur, but in being prepared for all of them simultaneously.
Academic research supports this multi-environment approach. Ang and Bekaert (2002) demonstrated that regime changes in economic conditions significantly impact asset returns, while Fama and French (2004) showed that different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to economic factors. The All Weather Strategy essentially operationalizes these academic insights into a practical investment framework.
The Original All Weather Allocation: Simplicity Masquerading as Sophistication
The core All Weather portfolio, as implemented by Bridgewater for institutional clients and later adapted for retail investors, maintains a deceptively simple static allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% commodities, and 7.5% Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). This allocation may appear arbitrary to the uninitiated, but each percentage reflects careful consideration of historical volatilities, correlations, and economic sensitivities.
The 30% stock allocation provides growth exposure while limiting the portfolio's overall volatility. Stocks historically deliver superior long-term returns but with significant volatility, as evidenced by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's average annual return of approximately 10% since 1926, accompanied by standard deviation exceeding 15% (Ibbotson Associates, 2023). By limiting stock exposure to 30%, the portfolio captures much of the equity risk premium while avoiding excessive volatility.
The combined 55% allocation to bonds (40% long-term plus 15% intermediate-term) serves as the portfolio's stabilizing force. Long-term bonds provide substantial interest rate sensitivity, performing well during economic slowdowns when central banks reduce rates. Intermediate-term bonds offer a balance between interest rate sensitivity and reduced duration risk. This bond-heavy allocation reflects Dalio's insight that bonds typically exhibit lower volatility than stocks while providing essential diversification benefits.
The 7.5% commodities allocation addresses inflation protection, as commodity prices typically rise during inflationary periods. Historical analysis by Bodie and Rosansky (1980) demonstrated that commodities provide meaningful diversification benefits and inflation hedging capabilities, though with considerable volatility. The relatively small allocation reflects commodities' high volatility and mixed long-term returns.
Finally, the 7.5% TIPS allocation provides explicit inflation protection through government-backed securities whose principal and interest payments adjust with inflation. Introduced by the U.S. Treasury in 1997, TIPS have proven effective inflation hedges, though they underperform nominal bonds during deflationary periods (Campbell & Viceira, 2001).
Historical Performance: The Evidence Speaks
Analyzing the All Weather Strategy's historical performance reveals both its strengths and limitations. Using monthly return data from 1970 to 2023, spanning over five decades of varying economic conditions, the strategy has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns while experiencing lower volatility than traditional stock-heavy portfolios.
During this period, the All Weather allocation generated an average annual return of approximately 8.2%, compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the strategy's annual volatility measured just 9.1%, substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.8% volatility. This translated to a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 for the All Weather Strategy versus 0.54 for the S&P 500, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance.
More impressively, the strategy's maximum drawdown over this period was 12.3%, occurring during the 2008 financial crisis, compared to the S&P 500's maximum drawdown of 50.9% during the same period. This drawdown mitigation proves crucial for long-term wealth building, as Stein and DeMuth (2003) demonstrated that avoiding large losses significantly impacts compound returns over time.
The strategy performed particularly well during periods of economic stress. During the 1970s stagflation, when stocks and bonds both struggled, the All Weather portfolio's commodity and TIPS allocations provided essential protection. Similarly, during the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, the portfolio's bond-heavy allocation cushioned losses while maintaining positive returns in several years when stocks declined significantly.
However, the strategy underperformed during sustained bull markets, particularly the 1990s technology boom and the 2010s post-financial crisis recovery. This underperformance reflects the strategy's conservative nature and diversified approach, which sacrifices potential upside for downside protection. As Dalio frequently emphasizes, the All Weather Strategy prioritizes "not losing money" over "making a lot of money."
Implementing the All Weather Strategy: A Practical Guide
The All Weather Strategy Indicator transforms Dalio's institutional-grade approach into an accessible tool for individual investors. The indicator provides real-time portfolio tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analytics, eliminating much of the complexity traditionally associated with implementing sophisticated allocation strategies.
To begin implementation, investors must first determine their investable capital. As detailed analysis reveals, the All Weather Strategy requires meaningful capital to implement effectively due to transaction costs, minimum investment requirements, and the need for precise allocations across five different asset classes.
For portfolios below $50,000, the strategy becomes challenging to implement efficiently. Transaction costs consume a disproportionate share of returns, while the inability to purchase fractional shares creates allocation drift. Consider an investor with $25,000 attempting to allocate 7.5% to commodities through the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF (DJP), currently trading around $25 per share. This allocation targets $1,875, enough for only 75 shares, creating immediate tracking error.
At $50,000, implementation becomes feasible but not optimal. The 30% stock allocation ($15,000) purchases approximately 37 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at current prices around $400 per share. The 40% long-term bond allocation ($20,000) buys 200 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at approximately $100 per share. While workable, these allocations leave significant cash drag and rebalancing challenges.
The optimal minimum for individual implementation appears to be $100,000. At this level, each allocation becomes substantial enough for precise implementation while keeping transaction costs below 0.4% annually. The $30,000 stock allocation, $40,000 long-term bond allocation, $15,000 intermediate-term bond allocation, $7,500 commodity allocation, and $7,500 TIPS allocation each provide sufficient size for effective management.
For investors with $250,000 or more, the strategy implementation approaches institutional quality. Allocation precision improves, transaction costs decline as a percentage of assets, and rebalancing becomes highly efficient. These larger portfolios can also consider adding complexity through international diversification or alternative implementations.
The indicator recommends quarterly rebalancing to balance transaction costs with allocation discipline. Monthly rebalancing increases costs without substantial benefits for most investors, while annual rebalancing allows excessive drift that can meaningfully impact performance. Quarterly rebalancing, typically on the first trading day of each quarter, provides an optimal balance.
Understanding the Indicator's Functionality
The All Weather Strategy Indicator operates as a comprehensive portfolio management system, providing multiple analytical layers that professional money managers typically reserve for institutional clients. This sophisticated tool transforms Ray Dalio's institutional-grade strategy into an accessible platform for individual investors, offering features that rival professional portfolio management software.
The indicator's core architecture consists of several interconnected modules that work seamlessly together to provide complete portfolio oversight. At its foundation lies a real-time portfolio simulation engine that tracks the exact value of each ETF position based on current market prices, eliminating the need for manual calculations or external spreadsheets.
DETAILED INDICATOR COMPONENTS AND FUNCTIONS
Portfolio Configuration Module
The portfolio setup begins with the Portfolio Configuration section, which establishes the fundamental parameters for strategy implementation. The Portfolio Capital input accepts values from $1,000 to $10,000,000, accommodating everyone from beginning investors to institutional clients. This input directly drives all subsequent calculations, determining exact share quantities and portfolio values throughout the implementation period.
The Portfolio Start Date function allows users to specify when they began implementing the All Weather Strategy, creating a clear demarcation point for performance tracking. This feature proves essential for investors who want to track their actual implementation against theoretical performance, providing realistic assessment of strategy effectiveness including timing differences and implementation costs.
Rebalancing Frequency settings offer two options: Monthly and Quarterly. While monthly rebalancing provides more precise allocation control, quarterly rebalancing typically proves more cost-effective for most investors due to reduced transaction costs. The indicator automatically detects the first trading day of each period, ensuring rebalancing occurs at optimal times regardless of weekends, holidays, or market closures.
The Rebalancing Threshold parameter, adjustable from 0.5% to 10%, determines when allocation drift triggers rebalancing recommendations. Conservative settings like 1-2% maintain tight allocation control but increase trading frequency, while wider thresholds like 3-5% reduce trading costs but allow greater allocation drift. This flexibility accommodates different risk tolerances and cost structures.
Visual Display System
The Show All Weather Calculator toggle controls the main dashboard visibility, allowing users to focus on chart visualization when detailed metrics aren't needed. When enabled, this comprehensive dashboard displays current portfolio value, individual ETF allocations, target versus actual weights, rebalancing status, and performance metrics in a professionally formatted table.
Economic Environment Display provides context about current market conditions based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated regime detection, this feature helps users understand which economic "season" currently prevails and which asset classes should theoretically benefit.
Rebalancing Signals illuminate when portfolio drift exceeds user-defined thresholds, highlighting specific ETFs that require adjustment. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency: green for balanced allocations, yellow for moderate drift, and red for significant deviations requiring immediate attention.
Advanced Label System
The rebalancing label system represents one of the indicator's most innovative features, providing three distinct detail levels to accommodate different user needs and experience levels. The "None" setting displays simple symbols marking portfolio start and rebalancing events without cluttering the chart with text. This minimal approach suits experienced investors who understand the implications of each symbol.
"Basic" label mode shows essential information including portfolio values at each rebalancing point, enabling quick assessment of strategy performance over time. These labels display "START $X" for portfolio initiation and "RBL $Y" for rebalancing events, providing clear performance tracking without overwhelming detail.
"Detailed" labels provide comprehensive trading instructions including exact buy and sell quantities for each ETF. These labels might display "RBL $125,000 BUY 15 SPY SELL 25 TLT BUY 8 IEF NO TRADES DJP SELL 12 SCHP" providing complete implementation guidance. This feature essentially transforms the indicator into a personal portfolio manager, eliminating guesswork about exact trades required.
Professional Color Themes
Eight professionally designed color themes adapt the indicator's appearance to different aesthetic preferences and market analysis styles. The "Gold" theme reflects traditional wealth management aesthetics, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional appearance. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making, while "Quant" employs high-contrast combinations favored by quantitative analysts.
"Ocean," "Fire," "Matrix," and "Arctic" themes provide distinctive visual identities for traders who prefer unique chart aesthetics. Each theme automatically adjusts for dark or light mode optimization, ensuring optimal readability across different TradingView configurations.
Real-Time Portfolio Tracking
The portfolio simulation engine continuously tracks five separate ETF positions: SPY for stocks, TLT for long-term bonds, IEF for intermediate-term bonds, DJP for commodities, and SCHP for TIPS. Each position's value updates in real-time based on current market prices, providing instant feedback about portfolio performance and allocation drift.
Current share calculations determine exact holdings based on the most recent rebalancing, while target shares reflect optimal allocation based on current portfolio value. Trade calculations show precisely how many shares to buy or sell during rebalancing, eliminating manual calculations and potential errors.
Performance Analytics Suite
The indicator's performance measurement capabilities rival professional portfolio analysis software. Sharpe ratio calculations incorporate current risk-free rates obtained from Treasury yield data, providing accurate risk-adjusted performance assessment. Volatility measurements use rolling periods to capture changing market conditions while maintaining statistical significance.
Portfolio return calculations track both absolute and relative performance, comparing the All Weather implementation against individual asset classes and benchmark indices. These metrics update continuously, providing real-time assessment of strategy effectiveness and implementation quality.
Data Quality Monitoring
Sophisticated data quality checks ensure reliable indicator operation across different market conditions and potential data interruptions. The system monitors all five ETF price feeds plus economic data sources, providing quality scores that alert users to potential data issues that might affect calculations.
When data quality degrades, the indicator automatically switches to fallback values or alternative data sources, maintaining functionality during temporary market data interruptions. This robust design ensures consistent operation even during volatile market conditions when data feeds occasionally experience disruptions.
Risk Management and Behavioral Considerations
Despite its sophisticated design, the All Weather Strategy faces behavioral challenges that have derailed countless well-intentioned investment plans. The strategy's conservative nature means it will underperform growth stocks during bull markets, potentially by substantial margins. Maintaining discipline during these periods requires understanding that the strategy optimizes for risk-adjusted returns over absolute returns.
Behavioral finance research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that investors feel losses approximately twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This loss aversion creates powerful psychological pressure to abandon defensive strategies during bull markets when aggressive portfolios appear more attractive. The All Weather Strategy's bond-heavy allocation will seem overly conservative when technology stocks double in value, as occurred repeatedly during the 2010s.
Conversely, the strategy's defensive characteristics provide psychological comfort during market stress. When stocks crash 30-50%, as they periodically do, the All Weather portfolio's modest losses feel manageable rather than catastrophic. This emotional stability enables investors to maintain their investment discipline when others capitulate, often at the worst possible times.
Rebalancing discipline presents another behavioral challenge. Selling winners to buy losers contradicts natural human tendencies but remains essential for the strategy's success. When stocks have outperformed bonds for several quarters, rebalancing requires selling high-performing stock positions to purchase seemingly stagnant bond positions. This action feels counterintuitive but captures the strategy's systematic approach to risk management.
Tax considerations add complexity for taxable accounts. Frequent rebalancing generates taxable events that can erode after-tax returns, particularly for high-income investors facing elevated capital gains rates. Tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs provide ideal vehicles for All Weather implementation, eliminating tax friction from rebalancing activities.
Capital Requirements and Cost Analysis
Comprehensive cost analysis reveals the capital requirements for effective All Weather implementation. Annual expenses include management fees for each ETF, transaction costs from rebalancing, and bid-ask spreads from trading less liquid securities.
ETF expense ratios vary significantly across asset classes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF charges 0.09% annually, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.20%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.15%, the Schwab US TIPS ETF charges 0.05%, and the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF charges 0.75%. Weighted by the All Weather allocations, total expense ratios average approximately 0.19% annually.
Transaction costs depend heavily on broker selection and account size. Premium brokers like Interactive Brokers charge $1-2 per trade, resulting in $20-40 annually for quarterly rebalancing. Discount brokers may charge higher per-trade fees but offer commission-free ETF trading for selected funds. Zero-commission brokers eliminate explicit trading costs but often impose wider bid-ask spreads that function as hidden fees.
Bid-ask spreads represent the difference between buying and selling prices for each security. Highly liquid ETFs like SPY maintain spreads of 1-2 basis points, while less liquid commodity ETFs may exhibit spreads of 5-10 basis points. These costs accumulate through rebalancing activities, typically totaling 10-15 basis points annually.
For a $100,000 portfolio, total annual costs including expense ratios, transaction fees, and spreads typically range from 0.35% to 0.45%, or $350-450 annually. These costs decline as a percentage of assets as portfolio size increases, reaching approximately 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $250,000.
Comparing costs to potential benefits reveals the strategy's value proposition. Historical analysis suggests the All Weather approach reduces portfolio volatility by 35-40% compared to stock-heavy allocations while maintaining competitive returns. This volatility reduction provides substantial value during market stress, potentially preventing behavioral mistakes that destroy long-term wealth.
Alternative Implementations and Customizations
While the original All Weather allocation provides an excellent starting point, investors may consider modifications based on personal circumstances, market conditions, or geographic considerations. International diversification represents one potential enhancement, adding exposure to developed and emerging market bonds and equities.
Geographic customization becomes important for non-US investors. European investors might replace US Treasury bonds with German Bunds or broader European government bond indices. Currency hedging decisions add complexity but may reduce volatility for investors whose spending occurs in non-dollar currencies.
Tax-location strategies optimize after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient assets in tax-advantaged accounts while holding tax-efficient assets in taxable accounts. TIPS and commodity ETFs generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates, making them candidates for retirement account placement. Stock ETFs generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, making them suitable for taxable accounts.
Some investors prefer implementing the bond allocation through individual Treasury securities rather than ETFs, eliminating management fees while gaining precise maturity control. Treasury auctions provide access to new securities without bid-ask spreads, though this approach requires more sophisticated portfolio management.
Factor-based implementations replace broad market ETFs with factor-tilted alternatives. Value-tilted stock ETFs, quality-focused bond ETFs, or momentum-based commodity indices may enhance returns while maintaining the All Weather framework's diversification benefits. However, these modifications introduce additional complexity and potential tracking error.
Conclusion: Embracing the Long Game
The All Weather Strategy represents more than an investment approach; it embodies a philosophy of financial resilience that prioritizes sustainable wealth building over speculative gains. In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by algorithmic trading, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency volatility, Dalio's methodical approach offers a refreshing alternative grounded in economic theory and historical evidence.
The strategy's greatest strength lies not in its potential for extraordinary returns, but in its capacity to deliver reasonable returns across diverse economic environments while protecting capital during market stress. This characteristic becomes increasingly valuable as investors approach or enter retirement, when portfolio preservation assumes greater importance than aggressive growth.
Implementation requires discipline, adequate capital, and realistic expectations. The strategy will underperform growth-oriented approaches during bull markets while providing superior downside protection during bear markets. Investors must embrace this trade-off consciously, understanding that the strategy optimizes for long-term wealth building rather than short-term performance.
The All Weather Strategy Indicator democratizes access to institutional-quality portfolio management, providing individual investors with tools previously available only to wealthy families and institutions. By automating allocation tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analysis, the indicator removes much of the complexity that has historically limited sophisticated strategy implementation.
For investors seeking a systematic, evidence-based approach to long-term wealth building, the All Weather Strategy provides a compelling framework. Its emphasis on diversification, risk management, and behavioral discipline aligns with the fundamental principles that have created lasting wealth throughout financial history. While the strategy may not generate headlines or inspire cocktail party conversations, it offers something more valuable: a reliable path toward financial security across all economic seasons.
As Dalio himself notes, "The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist, and they design their portfolios accordingly." The All Weather Strategy's enduring appeal lies in its rejection of this recency bias, instead embracing the uncertainty of markets while positioning for success regardless of which economic season unfolds.
STEP-BY-STEP INDICATOR SETUP GUIDE
Setting up the All Weather Strategy Indicator requires careful attention to each configuration parameter to ensure optimal implementation. This comprehensive setup guide walks through every setting and explains its impact on strategy performance.
Initial Setup Process
Begin by adding the indicator to your TradingView chart. Search for "Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy" in the indicator library and apply it to any chart. The indicator operates independently of the underlying chart symbol, drawing data directly from the five required ETFs regardless of which security appears on the chart.
Portfolio Configuration Settings
Start with the Portfolio Capital input, which drives all subsequent calculations. Enter your exact investable capital, ranging from $1,000 to $10,000,000. This input determines share quantities, trade recommendations, and performance calculations. Conservative recommendations suggest minimum capitals of $50,000 for basic implementation or $100,000 for optimal precision.
Select your Portfolio Start Date carefully, as this establishes the baseline for all performance calculations. Choose the date when you actually began implementing the All Weather Strategy, not when you first learned about it. This date should reflect when you first purchased ETFs according to the target allocation, creating realistic performance tracking.
Choose your Rebalancing Frequency based on your cost structure and precision preferences. Monthly rebalancing provides tighter allocation control but increases transaction costs. Quarterly rebalancing offers the optimal balance for most investors between allocation precision and cost control. The indicator automatically detects appropriate trading days regardless of your selection.
Set the Rebalancing Threshold based on your tolerance for allocation drift and transaction costs. Conservative investors preferring tight control should use 1-2% thresholds, while cost-conscious investors may prefer 3-5% thresholds. Lower thresholds maintain more precise allocations but trigger more frequent trading.
Display Configuration Options
Enable Show All Weather Calculator to display the comprehensive dashboard containing portfolio values, allocations, and performance metrics. This dashboard provides essential information for portfolio management and should remain enabled for most users.
Show Economic Environment displays current economic regime classification based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated models, this feature provides useful context for understanding current market conditions.
Show Rebalancing Signals highlights when portfolio allocations drift beyond your threshold settings. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency levels, helping prioritize rebalancing activities.
Advanced Label Customization
Configure Show Rebalancing Labels based on your need for chart annotations. These labels mark important portfolio events and can provide valuable historical context, though they may clutter charts during extended time periods.
Select appropriate Label Detail Levels based on your experience and information needs. "None" provides minimal symbols suitable for experienced users. "Basic" shows portfolio values at key events. "Detailed" provides complete trading instructions including exact share quantities for each ETF.
Appearance Customization
Choose Color Themes based on your aesthetic preferences and trading style. "Gold" reflects traditional wealth management appearance, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional styling. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making.
Enable Dark Mode Optimization if using TradingView's dark theme for optimal readability and contrast. This setting automatically adjusts all colors and transparency levels for the selected theme.
Set Main Line Width based on your chart resolution and visual preferences. Higher width values provide clearer allocation lines but may overwhelm smaller charts. Most users prefer width settings of 2-3 for optimal visibility.
Troubleshooting Common Setup Issues
If the indicator displays "Data not available" messages, verify that all five ETFs (SPY, TLT, IEF, DJP, SCHP) have valid price data on your selected timeframe. The indicator requires daily data availability for all components.
When rebalancing signals seem inconsistent, check your threshold settings and ensure sufficient time has passed since the last rebalancing event. The indicator only triggers signals on designated rebalancing days (first trading day of each period) when drift exceeds threshold levels.
If labels appear at unexpected chart locations, verify that your chart displays percentage values rather than price values. The indicator forces percentage formatting and 0-40% scaling for optimal allocation visualization.
COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND FURTHER READING
PRIMARY SOURCES AND RAY DALIO WORKS
Dalio, R. (2017). Principles: Life and work. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Dalio, R. (2018). A template for understanding big debt crises. Bridgewater Associates.
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Simon & Schuster.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES RESEARCH PAPERS
Jensen, G., Kertesz, A. & Prince, B. (2010). All Weather strategy: Bridgewater's approach to portfolio construction. Bridgewater Associates Research.
Prince, B. (2011). An in-depth look at the investment logic behind the All Weather strategy. Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations.
Bridgewater Associates. (2015). Risk parity in the context of larger portfolio construction. Institutional Research.
ACADEMIC RESEARCH ON RISK PARITY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International asset allocation with regime shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Bodie, Z. & Rosansky, V. I. (1980). Risk and return in commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(3), 27-39.
Campbell, J. Y. & Viceira, L. M. (2001). Who should buy long-term bonds? American Economic Review, 91(1), 99-127.
Clarke, R., De Silva, H. & Thorley, S. (2013). Risk parity, maximum diversification, and minimum variance: An analytic perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 39-53.
Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 25-46.
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing: A practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Black, F. & Litterman, R. (1992). Global portfolio optimization. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(5), 28-43.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION AND ETF ANALYSIS
Gastineau, G. L. (2010). The exchange-traded funds manual. 2nd ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Poterba, J. M. & Shoven, J. B. (2002). Exchange-traded funds: A new investment option for taxable investors. American Economic Review, 92(2), 422-427.
Israelsen, C. L. (2005). A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio. Journal of Asset Management, 5(6), 423-427.
ECONOMIC CYCLE ANALYSIS AND ASSET CLASS RESEARCH
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected returns: An investor's guide to harvesting market rewards. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering portfolio management: An unconventional approach to institutional investment. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press.
Siegel, J. J. (2014). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.
Stein, D. M. & DeMuth, P. (2003). Systematic withdrawal from retirement portfolios: The impact of asset allocation decisions on portfolio longevity. AAII Journal, 25(7), 8-12.
CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Asness, C. S., Frazzini, A. & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Leverage aversion and risk parity. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 47-59.
Roncalli, T. (2013). Introduction to risk parity and budgeting. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Ibbotson Associates. (2023). Stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation 2023 yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar.
PERIODICALS AND ONGOING RESEARCH
Journal of Portfolio Management - Quarterly publication featuring cutting-edge research on portfolio construction and risk management
Financial Analysts Journal - Bi-monthly publication of the CFA Institute with practical investment research
Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations - Regular market commentary and research from the creators of the All Weather Strategy
RECOMMENDED READING SEQUENCE
For investors new to the All Weather Strategy, begin with Dalio's "Principles" for philosophical foundation, then proceed to the Bridgewater research papers for technical details. Supplement with Markowitz's original portfolio theory work and behavioral finance literature from Kahneman and Tversky.
Intermediate students should focus on academic papers by Ang & Bekaert on regime shifts, Clarke et al. on risk parity methods, and Ilmanen's comprehensive analysis of expected returns across asset classes.
Advanced practitioners will benefit from Roncalli's technical treatment of risk parity mathematics, Asness et al.'s academic critique of leverage aversion, and ongoing research in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
EMA Distance %# EMA Distance % - Daily Timeframe Analysis
## Overview
This indicator provides real-time analysis of price distance from key Exponential Moving Averages (EMA 10 and EMA 21) on the daily timeframe, regardless of your current chart timeframe. It displays both percentage and volatility-adjusted (ATR) distances in a clean, customizable table format.
## Key Features
- **Daily Timeframe Focus**: Always references daily EMA 10 and EMA 21 values, providing consistent analysis across all chart timeframes
- **Dual Distance Metrics**: Shows both percentage distance and ATR-normalized distance for comprehensive analysis
- **Customizable Table Position**: Position the data table anywhere on your chart (9 different locations available)
- **Color-Coded Results**: Green indicates price above EMA, red indicates price below EMA
- **Volatility Adjustment**: ATR distance provides context relative to the asset's typical price movements
## What It Shows
The indicator displays a table with the following information:
- **EMA Value**: Current daily EMA 10 and EMA 21 values
- **Distance %**: Percentage distance from each EMA (positive = above, negative = below)
- **ATR Distance**: How many Average True Range units the price is from each EMA
## Use Cases
- **Mean Reversion Trading**: Identify when price has moved significantly away from key EMAs
- **Trend Strength Analysis**: Gauge the strength of current trends relative to moving averages
- **Entry/Exit Timing**: Use ATR distances to identify potential reversal zones (typically 2-3+ ATR)
- **Multi-Timeframe Analysis**: View daily EMA relationships while analyzing shorter timeframes
- **Risk Management**: Understand volatility-adjusted distance for better position sizing
## Settings
- **Table Position**: Choose from 9 different table positions on your chart
- **ATR Period**: Customize the ATR calculation period (default: 14)
## Interpretation
- **Small distances (< 1% or < 1 ATR)**: Price near EMA support/resistance
- **Medium distances (1-3% or 1-2 ATR)**: Normal trending movement
- **Large distances (> 3% or > 2-3 ATR)**: Potential overextension, watch for mean reversion
Perfect for swing traders, position traders, and anyone using EMA-based strategies who wants quick access to daily timeframe EMA relationships without switching chart timeframes.
Mutanabby_AI __ OSC+ST+SQZMOMMutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM: Multi-Component Trading Analysis Tool
Overview
The Mutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM indicator combines three proven technical analysis components into a unified trading system, providing comprehensive market analysis through integrated oscillator signals, trend identification, and volatility assessment.
Core Components
Wave Trend Oscillator (OSC): Identifies overbought and oversold market conditions using exponential moving average calculations. Key threshold levels include overbought zones at 60 and 53, with oversold areas marked at -60 and -53. Crossover signals between the two oscillator lines generate entry opportunities, displayed as colored circles on the chart for easy identification.
Supertrend Indicator (ST): Determines overall market direction using Average True Range calculations with a 2.5 factor and 10-period ATR configuration. Green lines indicate confirmed uptrends while red lines signal downtrend conditions. The indicator automatically adapts to market volatility changes, providing reliable trend identification across different market environments.
Squeeze Momentum (SQZMOM): Compares Bollinger Bands with Keltner Channels to identify consolidation periods and potential breakout scenarios. Black squares indicate squeeze conditions representing low volatility periods, green triangles signal confirmed upward breakouts, and red triangles mark downward breakout confirmations.
Signal Generation Logic
Long Entry Conditions:
Green triangles from Squeeze Momentum component
Supertrend line transitioning to green
Bullish crossovers in Wave Trend Oscillator from oversold territory
Short Entry Conditions:
Red triangles from Squeeze Momentum component
Supertrend line transitioning to red
Bearish crossovers in Wave Trend Oscillator from overbought territory
Automated Risk Management
The indicator incorporates comprehensive risk management through ATR-based calculations. Stop losses are automatically positioned at 3x ATR distance from entry points, while three progressive take profit targets are established at 1x, 2x, and 3x ATR multiples respectively. All risk management levels are clearly displayed on the chart using colored lines and informative labels.
When trend direction changes, the system automatically clears previous risk levels and generates new calculations, ensuring all risk parameters remain current and relevant to existing market conditions.
Alert and Notification System
Comprehensive alert framework includes trend change notifications with complete trade setup details, squeeze release alerts for breakout opportunity identification, and trend weakness warnings for active position management. Alert messages contain specific trading pair information, timeframe specifications, and all relevant entry and exit level data.
Implementation Guidelines
Timeframe Selection: Higher timeframes including 4-hour and daily charts provide the most reliable signals for position trading strategies. One-hour charts demonstrate good performance for day trading applications, while 15-30 minute timeframes enable scalping approaches with enhanced risk management requirements.
Risk Management Integration: Limit individual trade risk to 1-2% of total capital using the automatically calculated stop loss levels for precise position sizing. Implement systematic profit-taking at each target level while adjusting stop loss positions to protect accumulated gains.
Market Volatility Adaptation: The indicator's ATR-based calculations automatically adjust to changing market volatility conditions. During high volatility periods, risk management levels appropriately widen, while low volatility conditions result in tighter risk parameters.
Optimization Techniques
Combine indicator signals with fundamental support and resistance level analysis for enhanced signal validation. Monitor volume patterns to confirm breakout strength, particularly when Squeeze Momentum signals develop. Maintain awareness of scheduled economic events that may influence market behavior independent of technical indicator signals.
The multi-component design provides internal signal confirmation through multiple alignment requirements, significantly reducing false signal occurrence while maintaining reasonable trade frequency for active trading strategies.
Technical Specifications
The Wave Trend Oscillator utilizes customizable channel length (default 10) and average length (default 21) parameters for optimal market sensitivity. Supertrend calculations employ ATR period of 10 with factor multiplier of 2.5 for balanced signal quality. Squeeze Momentum analysis uses Bollinger Band length of 20 periods with 2.0 multiplication factor, combined with Keltner Channel length of 20 periods and 1.5 multiplication factor.
Conclusion
The Mutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM indicator provides a systematic approach to technical market analysis through the integration of proven oscillator, trend, and momentum components. Success requires thorough understanding of each element's functionality and disciplined implementation of proper risk management principles.
Practice with demo trading accounts before live implementation to develop familiarity with signal interpretation and trade management procedures. The indicator's systematic approach effectively reduces emotional decision-making while providing clear, objective guidelines for trade entry, management, and exit strategies across various market conditions.
Game Theory Trading StrategyGame Theory Trading Strategy: Explanation and Working Logic
This Pine Script (version 5) code implements a trading strategy named "Game Theory Trading Strategy" in TradingView. Unlike the previous indicator, this is a full-fledged strategy with automated entry/exit rules, risk management, and backtesting capabilities. It uses Game Theory principles to analyze market behavior, focusing on herd behavior, institutional flows, liquidity traps, and Nash equilibrium to generate buy (long) and sell (short) signals. Below, I'll explain the strategy's purpose, working logic, key components, and usage tips in detail.
1. General Description
Purpose: The strategy identifies high-probability trading opportunities by combining Game Theory concepts (herd behavior, contrarian signals, Nash equilibrium) with technical analysis (RSI, volume, momentum). It aims to exploit market inefficiencies caused by retail herd behavior, institutional flows, and liquidity traps. The strategy is designed for automated trading with defined risk management (stop-loss/take-profit) and position sizing based on market conditions.
Key Features:
Herd Behavior Detection: Identifies retail panic buying/selling using RSI and volume spikes.
Liquidity Traps: Detects stop-loss hunting zones where price breaks recent highs/lows but reverses.
Institutional Flow Analysis: Tracks high-volume institutional activity via Accumulation/Distribution and volume spikes.
Nash Equilibrium: Uses statistical price bands to assess whether the market is in equilibrium or deviated (overbought/oversold).
Risk Management: Configurable stop-loss (SL) and take-profit (TP) percentages, dynamic position sizing based on Game Theory (minimax principle).
Visualization: Displays Nash bands, signals, background colors, and two tables (Game Theory status and backtest results).
Backtesting: Tracks performance metrics like win rate, profit factor, max drawdown, and Sharpe ratio.
Strategy Settings:
Initial capital: $10,000.
Pyramiding: Up to 3 positions.
Position size: 10% of equity (default_qty_value=10).
Configurable inputs for RSI, volume, liquidity, institutional flow, Nash equilibrium, and risk management.
Warning: This is a strategy, not just an indicator. It executes trades automatically in TradingView's Strategy Tester. Always backtest thoroughly and use proper risk management before live trading.
2. Working Logic (Step by Step)
The strategy processes each bar (candle) to generate signals, manage positions, and update performance metrics. Here's how it works:
a. Input Parameters
The inputs are grouped for clarity:
Herd Behavior (🐑):
RSI Period (14): For overbought/oversold detection.
Volume MA Period (20): To calculate average volume for spike detection.
Herd Threshold (2.0): Volume multiplier for detecting herd activity.
Liquidity Analysis (💧):
Liquidity Lookback (50): Bars to check for recent highs/lows.
Liquidity Sensitivity (1.5): Volume multiplier for trap detection.
Institutional Flow (🏦):
Institutional Volume Multiplier (2.5): For detecting large volume spikes.
Institutional MA Period (21): For Accumulation/Distribution smoothing.
Nash Equilibrium (⚖️):
Nash Period (100): For calculating price mean and standard deviation.
Nash Deviation (0.02): Multiplier for equilibrium bands.
Risk Management (🛡️):
Use Stop-Loss (true): Enables SL at 2% below/above entry price.
Use Take-Profit (true): Enables TP at 5% above/below entry price.
b. Herd Behavior Detection
RSI (14): Checks for extreme conditions:
Overbought: RSI > 70 (potential herd buying).
Oversold: RSI < 30 (potential herd selling).
Volume Spike: Volume > SMA(20) x 2.0 (herd_threshold).
Momentum: Price change over 10 bars (close - close ) compared to its SMA(20).
Herd Signals:
Herd Buying: RSI > 70 + volume spike + positive momentum = Retail buying frenzy (red background).
Herd Selling: RSI < 30 + volume spike + negative momentum = Retail selling panic (green background).
c. Liquidity Trap Detection
Recent Highs/Lows: Calculated over 50 bars (liquidity_lookback).
Psychological Levels: Nearest round numbers (e.g., $100, $110) as potential stop-loss zones.
Trap Conditions:
Up Trap: Price breaks recent high, closes below it, with a volume spike (volume > SMA x 1.5).
Down Trap: Price breaks recent low, closes above it, with a volume spike.
Visualization: Traps are marked with small red/green crosses above/below bars.
d. Institutional Flow Analysis
Volume Check: Volume > SMA(20) x 2.5 (inst_volume_mult) = Institutional activity.
Accumulation/Distribution (AD):
Formula: ((close - low) - (high - close)) / (high - low) * volume, cumulated over time.
Smoothed with SMA(21) (inst_ma_length).
Accumulation: AD > MA + high volume = Institutions buying.
Distribution: AD < MA + high volume = Institutions selling.
Smart Money Index: (close - open) / (high - low) * volume, smoothed with SMA(20). Positive = Smart money buying.
e. Nash Equilibrium
Calculation:
Price mean: SMA(100) (nash_period).
Standard deviation: stdev(100).
Upper Nash: Mean + StdDev x 0.02 (nash_deviation).
Lower Nash: Mean - StdDev x 0.02.
Conditions:
Near Equilibrium: Price between upper and lower Nash bands (stable market).
Above Nash: Price > upper band (overbought, sell potential).
Below Nash: Price < lower band (oversold, buy potential).
Visualization: Orange line (mean), red/green lines (upper/lower bands).
f. Game Theory Signals
The strategy generates three types of signals, combined into long/short triggers:
Contrarian Signals:
Buy: Herd selling + (accumulation or down trap) = Go against retail panic.
Sell: Herd buying + (distribution or up trap).
Momentum Signals:
Buy: Below Nash + positive smart money + no herd buying.
Sell: Above Nash + negative smart money + no herd selling.
Nash Reversion Signals:
Buy: Below Nash + rising close (close > close ) + volume > MA.
Sell: Above Nash + falling close + volume > MA.
Final Signals:
Long Signal: Contrarian buy OR momentum buy OR Nash reversion buy.
Short Signal: Contrarian sell OR momentum sell OR Nash reversion sell.
g. Position Management
Position Sizing (Minimax Principle):
Default: 1.0 (10% of equity).
In Nash equilibrium: Reduced to 0.5 (conservative).
During institutional volume: Increased to 1.5 (aggressive).
Entries:
Long: If long_signal is true and no existing long position (strategy.position_size <= 0).
Short: If short_signal is true and no existing short position (strategy.position_size >= 0).
Exits:
Stop-Loss: If use_sl=true, set at 2% below/above entry price.
Take-Profit: If use_tp=true, set at 5% above/below entry price.
Pyramiding: Up to 3 concurrent positions allowed.
h. Visualization
Nash Bands: Orange (mean), red (upper), green (lower).
Background Colors:
Herd buying: Red (90% transparency).
Herd selling: Green.
Institutional volume: Blue.
Signals:
Contrarian buy/sell: Green/red triangles below/above bars.
Liquidity traps: Red/green crosses above/below bars.
Tables:
Game Theory Table (Top-Right):
Herd Behavior: Buying frenzy, selling panic, or normal.
Institutional Flow: Accumulation, distribution, or neutral.
Nash Equilibrium: In equilibrium, above, or below.
Liquidity Status: Trap detected or safe.
Position Suggestion: Long (green), Short (red), or Wait (gray).
Backtest Table (Bottom-Right):
Total Trades: Number of closed trades.
Win Rate: Percentage of winning trades.
Net Profit/Loss: In USD, colored green/red.
Profit Factor: Gross profit / gross loss.
Max Drawdown: Peak-to-trough equity drop (%).
Win/Loss Trades: Number of winning/losing trades.
Risk/Reward Ratio: Simplified Sharpe ratio (returns / drawdown).
Avg Win/Loss Ratio: Average win per trade / average loss per trade.
Last Update: Current time.
i. Backtesting Metrics
Tracks:
Total trades, winning/losing trades.
Win rate (%).
Net profit ($).
Profit factor (gross profit / gross loss).
Max drawdown (%).
Simplified Sharpe ratio (returns / drawdown).
Average win/loss ratio.
Updates metrics on each closed trade.
Displays a label on the last bar with backtest period, total trades, win rate, and net profit.
j. Alerts
No explicit alertconditions defined, but you can add them for long_signal and short_signal (e.g., alertcondition(long_signal, "GT Long Entry", "Long Signal Detected!")).
Use TradingView's alert system with Strategy Tester outputs.
3. Usage Tips
Timeframe: Best for H1-D1 timeframes. Shorter frames (M1-M15) may produce noisy signals.
Settings:
Risk Management: Adjust sl_percent (e.g., 1% for volatile markets) and tp_percent (e.g., 3% for scalping).
Herd Threshold: Increase to 2.5 for stricter herd detection in choppy markets.
Liquidity Lookback: Reduce to 20 for faster markets (e.g., crypto).
Nash Period: Increase to 200 for longer-term analysis.
Backtesting:
Use TradingView's Strategy Tester to evaluate performance.
Check win rate (>50%), profit factor (>1.5), and max drawdown (<20%) for viability.
Test on different assets/timeframes to ensure robustness.
Live Trading:
Start with a demo account.
Combine with other indicators (e.g., EMAs, support/resistance) for confirmation.
Monitor liquidity traps and institutional flow for context.
Risk Management:
Always use SL/TP to limit losses.
Adjust position_size for risk tolerance (e.g., 5% of equity for conservative trading).
Avoid over-leveraging (pyramiding=3 can amplify risk).
Troubleshooting:
If no trades are executed, check signal conditions (e.g., lower herd_threshold or liquidity_sensitivity).
Ensure sufficient historical data for Nash and liquidity calculations.
If tables overlap, adjust position.top_right/bottom_right coordinates.
4. Key Differences from the Previous Indicator
Indicator vs. Strategy: The previous code was an indicator (VP + Game Theory Integrated Strategy) focused on visualization and alerts. This is a strategy with automated entries/exits and backtesting.
Volume Profile: Absent in this strategy, making it lighter but less focused on high-volume zones.
Wick Analysis: Not included here, unlike the previous indicator's heavy reliance on wick patterns.
Backtesting: This strategy includes detailed performance metrics and a backtest table, absent in the indicator.
Simpler Signals: Focuses on Game Theory signals (contrarian, momentum, Nash reversion) without the "Power/Ultra Power" hierarchy.
Risk Management: Explicit SL/TP and dynamic position sizing, not present in the indicator.
5. Conclusion
The "Game Theory Trading Strategy" is a sophisticated system leveraging herd behavior, institutional flows, liquidity traps, and Nash equilibrium to trade market inefficiencies. It’s designed for traders who understand Game Theory principles and want automated execution with robust risk management. However, it requires thorough backtesting and parameter optimization for specific markets (e.g., forex, crypto, stocks). The backtest table and visual aids make it easy to monitor performance, but always combine with other analysis tools and proper capital management.
If you need help with backtesting, adding alerts, or optimizing parameters, let me know!
Cryptokazancev Strategy PackCryptokazancev Strategy Pack
Комплексный инструмент для анализа рыночной структуры / Comprehensive Market Structure Analysis Tool
🇷🇺 Описание на русском
Cryptokazancev Strategy Pack by ZeeZeeMon - это мощный набор инструментов для технического анализа, включающий:
• Ордерблоки (Order Blocks) с настройкой количества и цветов
• Пивоты (Pivot Points) различных таймфреймов
• Рыночную структуру с зонами Фибоначчи (0.618, 0.786)
• Разворотные конструкции (пинбары и поглощения)
• Зоны интереса на основе скопления свингов
📊 Основные функции:
1. Ордерблоки
- Автоматическое определение бычьих/медвежьих OB
- Настройка максимального количества блоков (до 30)
- Кастомизация цветов
2. Пивоты
- Поддержка таймфреймов: Дневные/Недельные/Месячные/Квартальные/Годовые
- Уровни Camarilla (P, R1-R4, S1-S4)
3. Рыночная структура
- Четкое определение тренда (UP/DOWN)
- Ключевые уровни Фибо (0.618 и 0.786)
- Настройка глубины анализа (10-1000 баров)
4. Разворотные конструкции
- Обнаружение пинбаров
- Обнаружение поглощений
- Настройка чувствительности
5. Зоны интереса
- Алгоритм кластеризации свингов
- Настройка через ATR-мультипликатор
- Лимит отображаемых зон
🇬🇧 English Description
ZeeZeeMon Pack is a comprehensive market analysis toolkit featuring:
• Order Blocks with customizable count and colors
• Pivot Points for multiple timeframes
• Market Structure with Fibonacci zones
• Reversal patterns (pinbars and engulfings)
• Interest Zones based on swing clustering
📊 Key Features:
1. Order Blocks
- Auto-detection of bullish/bearish OB
- Configurable max blocks (up to 30)
- Custom color schemes
2. Pivot Points
- Supports: Daily/Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly/Yearly
- Camarilla levels (P, R1-R4, S1-S4)
3. Market Structure
- Clear trend detection (UP/DOWN)
- Key Fibonacci levels (0.618 & 0.786)
- Adjustable analysis depth (10-1000 bars)
4. Reversal Patterns
- Smart pinbar detection
- ATR-based engulfing filter
- Sensitivity adjustment
5. Interest Zones
- Swing clustering algorithm
- ATR-multiplier configuration
- Display limit (up to 10 zones)
⚙️ Technical Highlights:
• Built with Pine Script v5
• Performance-optimized
• Well-commented code
• Flexible settings system
⚠️ Важно / Important:
Индикатор в бета-версии. Тестируйте перед использованием в реальной торговле.
This is BETA version. Please test before live trading.
💬 Поддержка / Support:
Комментарии к скрипту / Script comments section
GTrader-ICT All In One-Comumnity VersionMeet the **GTrader-ICT All In One **, a comprehensive toolkit designed to integrate key Inner Circle Trader (ICT) concepts directly onto your chart. This powerful overlay indicator consolidates multiple essential tools, streamlining your technical analysis and helping you identify key temporal and price-based events.
📚 References & Inspiration
This indicator stands on the shoulders of giants. With the help of **tradeforopp** and **LuxAlgo**. The concepts and some implementation details were referenced from the following excellent, publicly available scripts:
ICT Killzones: The session drawing and pivot logic is adapted from tradeforopp
ICT Macros: The macro detection and plotting functionality is inspired by the work of Lux Algo , particularly their widely-used indicators covering ICT concepts.
🎯 Core Features
* **ICT Killzones:** Visualize critical trading sessions with customizable boxes. You can easily toggle and style the **Asia**, **London**, and **New York (AM, Lunch, PM)** sessions to focus on the liquidity and volatility that matter most to your strategy.
* Fully customizable session times and colors.
* Timezone support to align sessions with your local or preferred trading time (defaults to `America/New_York`).
* **ICT Macros:** Automatically identify and plot specific, short-duration time windows where institutional algorithms are known to be active (e.g., `09:50-10:10`, `14:50-15:10`, etc.).
* Plots the high/low range of the macro, providing clear levels of interest.
* Utilizes 1-minute data for precision, even when viewing on 3-minute or 5-minute charts.
📚 Optimization over the other original indicators
We add the custom input for macros session, users just need to input the from/to hour: minute format, and they will be converted into session objects in pinescript
The macro draws function is optimized, removing redundant draws, leading to better performance
Add "Distance from Macro Line to Chart" option
Add "Session Drawings Limit" for better performance
⚠️ Notes on TradingView Warnings
You may encounter some warnings from TradingView when using this script. These are generally expected due to the script's advanced, event-driven nature:
1. **Function Call Consistency:** The function 'box.new' should be called on each calculation for consistency, which may appear. This happens because drawing elements (like session boxes) are intentionally created only on the *first bar* of a new session, not on every single bar. This is a necessary design choice for performance and to prevent duplicate drawings.
2. **Potential for Repainting/Slow Load:** The **Macro** feature uses the `request.security_lower_tf()` function to get accurate 1-minute data. This can trigger warnings about performance or slow loading times. This is a known trade-off for achieving the precision required for the feature.
Morning Break OutThis indicator visualizes a classic morning breakout setup for the DAX and other European markets. The first hour often sets the tone for the trading day — this tool helps you identify that visually and react accordingly.
🔍 How It Works:
Box Range Calculation:
The high and low between 09:00 and 10:00 define the top and bottom of the box.
Color Logic:
Green: Price breaks above the box after 10:00 → bullish breakout
Red: Price breaks below the box after 10:00 → bearish breakout
Gray: No breakout → neutral phase
📈 Use Cases:
Identify breakout setups visually
Ideal for intraday traders and momentum strategies
Combine with volume or trend filters
⚙️ Notes:
Recommended for timeframes 1-minute and above
Uses the chart’s local timezone (e.g. CET/CEST for XETRA/DAX)
Works on all instruments with data before 09:00 — perfect for DAX, EuroStoxx, futures, FX, CFDs, etc.
Crypto DanR 1.4.2 PC-Roye Edition📜 Crypto DanR 1.4.2 — PC Roye Edition (Open Source)
This indicator combines Smart Money Concepts (SMC), Liquidity Analysis, and Trend Filtering to provide traders with a high-quality tool for intraday and swing trading on assets like XRP/USDT.
✅ What This Script Does
Crypto DanR 1.4.2 integrates the following advanced features:
Break of Structure (BOS) & Change of Character (CHoCH):
Detects key shifts in market structure
Helps confirm trend direction and reversal points
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
Displays unmitigated liquidity voids using a style inspired by LuxAlgo
Highlights potential retracement zones where smart money may re-enter
Equal Highs / Equal Lows (EQH/EQL):
Marks liquidity zones that institutions often target before reversals
Order Blocks (OB):
Identifies potential institutional demand/supply zones
Option to filter by wick, body, or mitigation logic
Fibonacci Volatility Bands (based on BigBeluga’s logic):
Detects potential price extremes using Fib extensions on volatility
10 Moving Averages in One (inspired by hiimannshu's script):
Supports 10 custom MAs (SMA, EMA, RMA, HMA, VWMA, etc.) with adjustable source and timeframe
Ideal for trend filtering or dynamic support/resistance
Vector Candles (TradersReality / PVSRA):
Color-coded candles showing real-time volume pressure and trend bias
Visual Trade Plan:
Optional overlay for entry, stop-loss, and take-profit planning
Displays risk-to-reward ratio and potential % gain/loss live
🧠 How It Works
The script uses a price-action-first approach, built around concepts from Smart Money Theory. CHoCH and BOS detect structural shifts, while FVGs and OBs help forecast likely reaction zones. The multiple moving averages act as a trend filter to avoid entering against momentum.
This combination allows traders to:
Enter on mitigations or breakouts
Set stops outside liquidity zones
Manage trades visually with dynamic risk/reward levels
📊 Best Use Cases
15m or 1h scalping (ideal)
Swing trading on 4h
Works well on crypto, FX, and indices
🙏 Credits
TradersReality for PVSRA logic via public library
LuxAlgo for FVG inspiration
hiimannshu for 10-in-1 MA logic
BigBeluga for Fibonacci Bands methodology
All reused logic is significantly modified and part of a broader framework.
📌 Notes
Script is open-source to promote transparency and collaboration
Please do not copy-paste and republish without adding meaningful improvements
Feedback and suggestions welcome!
Crypto DanR 1.4.2 PC-Roye Edition📜 Crypto DanR 1.4.2 — PC Roye Edition (Open Source)
This indicator combines Smart Money Concepts (SMC), Liquidity Analysis, and Trend Filtering to provide traders with a high-quality tool for intraday and swing trading on assets like XRP/USDT.
✅ What This Script Does
Crypto DanR 1.4.2 integrates the following advanced features:
Break of Structure (BOS) & Change of Character (CHoCH):
Detects key shifts in market structure
Helps confirm trend direction and reversal points
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
Displays unmitigated liquidity voids using a style inspired by LuxAlgo
Highlights potential retracement zones where smart money may re-enter
Equal Highs / Equal Lows (EQH/EQL):
Marks liquidity zones that institutions often target before reversals
Order Blocks (OB):
Identifies potential institutional demand/supply zones
Option to filter by wick, body, or mitigation logic
Fibonacci Volatility Bands (based on BigBeluga’s logic):
Detects potential price extremes using Fib extensions on volatility
10 Moving Averages in One (inspired by hiimannshu's script):
Supports 10 custom MAs (SMA, EMA, RMA, HMA, VWMA, etc.) with adjustable source and timeframe
Ideal for trend filtering or dynamic support/resistance
Vector Candles (TradersReality / PVSRA):
Color-coded candles showing real-time volume pressure and trend bias
Visual Trade Plan:
Optional overlay for entry, stop-loss, and take-profit planning
Displays risk-to-reward ratio and potential % gain/loss live
🧠 How It Works
The script uses a price-action-first approach, built around concepts from Smart Money Theory. CHoCH and BOS detect structural shifts, while FVGs and OBs help forecast likely reaction zones. The multiple moving averages act as a trend filter to avoid entering against momentum.
This combination allows traders to:
Enter on mitigations or breakouts
Set stops outside liquidity zones
Manage trades visually with dynamic risk/reward levels
📊 Best Use Cases
15m or 1h scalping (ideal)
Swing trading on 4h
Works well on crypto, FX, and indices
🙏 Credits
TradersReality for PVSRA logic via public library
LuxAlgo for FVG inspiration
hiimannshu for 10-in-1 MA logic
BigBeluga for Fibonacci Bands methodology
All reused logic is significantly modified and part of a broader framework.
📌 Notes
Script is open-source to promote transparency and collaboration
Please do not copy-paste and republish without adding meaningful improvements
Feedback and suggestions welcome!
ES Gap Trading Levels# ES Gap Trading Levels
## Overview
A professional gap trading indicator designed specifically for ES Futures traders. This indicator automatically captures the closing price at 3:59 PM ET (NYSE close) and immediately displays key gap levels for the evening trading session starting at 6:00 PM ET.
## Key Features
### ✅ **Automatic Gap Level Detection**
- Captures ES Futures closing price at 3:59-4:00 PM ET
- Instantly displays gap levels for immediate session planning
- Resets daily for fresh gap analysis
### ✅ **Six Critical Gap Levels**
- **±10 Points** (White lines) - Short-term gap targets
- **±20 Points** (Light Blue lines) - Medium gap targets
- **±30 Points** (Red lines) - Extended gap targets
### ✅ **Professional Display**
- Clean horizontal lines with customizable colors
- Clear labels showing point values (+30, +20, +10, -10, -20, -30)
- Gap levels table showing exact price targets
- Optional closing price reference line
### ✅ **Customizable Settings**
- Adjustable line colors, width, and extension
- Toggle labels and reference table on/off
- Manual closing price override for testing
- Debug mode for troubleshooting
### ✅ **Smart Management**
- Automatic cleanup of previous day's levels
- Lines appear immediately after market close
- Optimized for ES1!, MES1!, and other ES futures contracts
## How It Works
1. **Market Close Capture**: At 3:59 PM ET, the indicator captures the ES closing price
2. **Instant Display**: Gap levels immediately appear on your chart
3. **Evening Session Ready**: Lines are positioned for 6:00 PM ET session start
4. **Daily Reset**: Old levels are automatically cleared each new trading day
## Perfect For:
- Gap trading strategies
- Overnight futures trading
- ES futures scalping
- Session transition analysis
- Risk management levels
## Usage Tips:
- Best used on 1-15 minute ES futures charts
- Ensure chart timezone shows ET times
- Use manual mode for backtesting specific dates
- Combine with volume and momentum indicators
## Settings Guide:
- **Display Settings**: Control lines, labels, and table visibility
- **Colors**: Customize each gap level color scheme
- **Manual Settings**: Override closing price for testing
- **Debug**: View time detection and diagnostic information
*Designed by traders, for traders. Clean, professional, and reliable gap level detection for serious ES futures trading.*
SG CBC Table - Full 10min & 2minBased on SG CBC Table has 10 min and 2 min CBC status and GC. Also customizable table colors of the background can be changed or made transparent. Indicator Updates every 10 minutes on a 10 minute chart and every 2 minutes on a 2 minute chart
ZScore Plot with Ranked TableVersion 0.1
ZScore Plot with Ranked Table — Overview
This indicator visualizes the rolling ZScores of up to 10 crypto assets, giving traders a normalized view of log return deviations over time. It's designed for volatility analysis, anomaly detection, and clustering of asset behavior.
🎯 Purpose
• Show how each asset's performance deviates from its historical mean
• Identify potential overbought/oversold conditions across assets
• Provide a ranked leaderboard to compare asset behavior instantly
⚙️ Inputs
• Lookback: Number of bars to calculate mean and standard deviation
• Asset 1–10: Choose up to 10 symbols (e.g. BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT)
📈 Outputs
• ZScore Lines: Each asset plotted on a normalized scale (mean = 0, SD = 1)
• End-of-Line Labels: Asset names displayed at latest bar
• Leaderboard Table: Ranked list (top-right) showing:
◦ Asset name (color-matched)
◦ Final ZScore (rounded to 3 decimals)
🧠 Use Cases
• Quantitative traders seeking cross-asset momentum snapshots
• Signal engineers tracking volatility clusters
• Risk managers monitoring outliers and systemic shifts
Aggregated VolumeHow to Read the “Aggregated Volume” Signal
This indicator combines normalized volume, short-term volume bursts, pivot levels, VWAP, and a 200-period EMA to give you a multi-dimensional view of trading activity. Here’s how to interpret each component and synthesize them into actionable insights.
1. Custom Volume Signal (vSignal)
• Calculation
• vSignal = Sum of over bars, divided by the current price.
• A rising vSignal means more volume is being traded per unit of price, signaling growing interest relative to price level.
• Plot styling
• Bars are lime when (bullish volume days)
• Bars are orange when (bearish volume days)
How to read it
• Trend confirmation: Increasing lime bars alongside rising price suggests buyers in control.
• Warning sign: Rising orange bars on a down move indicate accelerating selling pressure.
• Divergence:
• Price making new highs while vSignal stalls or drops → potential top.
• Price making new lows while vSignal holds → potential bottom.
2. Short-Term Volume Bursts
Three semi-transparent histograms show how much the last 2, 5, and 10-bar raw volumes exceed (or fall below) the current vSignal:
• Blue = vol(2) – vSignal
• Green = vol(5) – vSignal
• Red = vol(10) – vSignal
If a colored bar sits above zero, that lookback’s volume is surging relative to the longer-term average (vSignal).
How to read it
• Clustered bursts:
• Blue + Green + Red above zero → strong, broad-based volume surge.
• Great for confirming breakouts and shakeouts.
• Isolated burst:
• Only Blue (> 0) on a small range bar → might be a false breakout or intrabar squeeze.
• Only Red (> 0) on a wide range → institutional involvement; act with caution.
3. Pivot Volume Levels (v & t)
• Every 21 bars, the script finds the highest and lowest vSignal values and plots them as shaded price levels:
• Magenta area = recent vSignal high (resistance)
• Cyan area = recent vSignal low (support)
How to read it
• Rejection/Break:
• Price approaches magenta zone and stalls → sellers defending that volume high.
• Break above magenta with high vSignal → likely sustained rally.
• Support flip:
• Cyan zone hold → buyers stepping in at heavy-volume lows.
• Break below cyan with rising vSignal → bearish conviction.
4. Midline Cross (Volume Equilibrium)
• A 10-bar SMA of
• Drawn as a faint white cross on price
How to read it
• Above midline → overall volume bias is skewed bullish.
• Below midline → bearish volume bias.
Crossovers of vSignal through this midline can signal shifts in underlying conviction.
5. VWAP & 200-Period EMA Overlays
• VWAP (transparent red if above price, green if below)
• EMA(200) plotted as aqua circles
How to read them
• VWAP tells you the intraday “value area.”
• Price above VWAP + rising vSignal = intraday buyers in charge.
• Price below VWAP + rising vSignal = aggressive sellers.
• EMA(200) gives you the longer-term trend.
• Above EMA200 = bullish regime
• Below EMA200 = bearish regime
6. Putting It All Together: Example Scenarios
1. Bullish Entry
• Price > EMA200 & VWAP is green
• vSignal rising in lime
• All three short-term bursts above zero
• Price near or breaking the magenta pivot with volume confirmation
2. Bearish Entry
• Price < EMA200 & VWAP is red
• vSignal rising in orange
• Two-bar burst (blue) spikes on a down bar
• Price failing at magenta pivot or breaking cyan support
3. Divergence Play
• Price makes new high, but vSignal peaks lower than last high → look for a reversal.
• Price drops to new low, but vSignal stays above its last low → prepare for a bounce.
By combining these layers—normalized volume, burst indicators, pivot levels, VWAP, and EMA—you get a clear map of where volume is clustering, which lets you anticipate support/resistance, gauge real interest, and spot potential reversals or breakouts with greater confidence.
Multi SMA AnalyzerMulti SMA Analyzer with Custom SMA Table & Advanced Session Logic
A feature-rich SMA analysis suite for traders, offering up to 7 configurable SMAs, in-depth trend detection, real-time table, and true session-aware calculations.
Ideal for those who want to combine intraday, swing, and higher-timeframe trend analysis with maximum chart flexibility.
Key Features
📊 Multi-SMA Overlay
- 7 SMAs (default: 5, 20, 50, 100, 200, 21, 34)—individually configurable (period, source, color, line style)
- Show/hide each SMA, custom line style (solid, stepline, circles), and color logic
- Dynamic color: full opacity above SMA, reduced when below
⏰ Session-Aware SMAs
- Each SMA can be calculated using only user-defined session hours/days/timezone
- “Ignore extended hours” option for accurate intraday trend
📋 Smart Data Table
- Live SMA values, % distance from price, and directional arrows (↑/↓/→)
- Bull/Bear/Sideways trend classification
- Custom table position, size, colors, transparency
- Table can run on chart or custom (higher) timeframe for multi-TF analysis
🎯 Golden/Death Cross Detection
- Flexible crossover engine: select any two from (5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200) for fast/slow SMA cross signals
- Plots icons (★ Golden, 💀 Death), optional crossover labels with custom size/colors
🏷️ SMA Labels
- Optional on-chart SMA period labels
- Custom placement (above/below/on line), size, color, offset
🚨 Signal & Trend Engine
- Bull/Bear/Sideways logic: price vs. multiple SMAs (not just one pair)
- Volume spike detection (2x 20-period SMA)
- Bullish engulfing candlestick detection
- All signals can use chart or custom table timeframe
🎨 Visual Customization
- Dynamic background color (Bull: green, Bear: red, Neutral: gray)
- Every visual aspect is customizable: label/table colors, transparency, size, position
🔔 Built-in Alerts
- Crossovers (SMA20/50, Golden/Death)
- Bull trend, volume spikes, engulfing pattern—all alert-ready
How It Works
- Session Filtering:
- SMAs can be set to count only bars from your chosen market session, for true intraday/trading-hour signals
Dynamic Table & Signals:
- Table and all signal logic run on your selected chart or custom timeframe
Flexible Crossover:
- Choose any pair (5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200) for cross detection—SMA 10 is available for crossover even if not shown as an SMA line
Everything is modular:
- Toggle features, set visuals, and alerts to your workflow
🚨 How to Use Alerts
- All key signals (crossovers, trend shifts, volume spikes, engulfing patterns) are available as alert conditions.
To enable:
- Click the “Alerts” (clock) icon at the top of TradingView.
- Select your desired signal (e.g., “Golden Cross”) from the condition dropdown.
- Set your alert preferences and create the alert.
- Now, you’ll get notified automatically whenever a signal occurs!
Perfect For
- Multi-timeframe and swing traders seeking higher timeframe SMA confirmation
- Intraday traders who want to ignore pre/post-market data
- Anyone wanting a modern, powerful, fully customizable multi-SMA overlay
// P.S: Experiment with Golden Cross where Fast SMA is 5 and Slow SMA is 20.
// Set custom timeframe for 4 hr while monitoring your chart on 15 min time frame.
// Enable Background Color and Use Table Timeframe for Background.
// Uncheck Pine labels in Style tab.
Clean, open-source, and loaded with pro features—enjoy!
Like, share, and let me know if you'd like any new features added.
NQ Position Size CalculatorNQ Position Size Line Calculator is designed specifically for Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) and micro futures (MNQ) traders who want to maintain disciplined risk management. This visual tool eliminates the guesswork from position sizing by displaying distance lines and contract calculations directly on your chart.
The indicator creates horizontal lines at 10-tick intervals from your stop loss level, showing you exactly how many contracts to trade at each distance to maintain your predetermined risk amount. Whether you're trading regular NQ contracts or micro MNQ contracts, this calculator ensures you never risk more than intended while providing instant visual feedback for optimal position sizing decisions.
How to Use the Indicator
Step 1: Configure Your Settings
Stop Loss Price: Enter your exact stop loss level (e.g., 20000.00)
Risk Amount ($): Set your maximum dollar risk per trade (e.g., $500)
Contract Type: Choose between:
NQ (Regular): $5 per tick - for larger accounts
MNQ (Micro): $0.50 per tick - for smaller accounts or conservative sizing
Display Options:
Max Lines: Number of distance lines to show (default: 30)
Show Labels: Toggle tick distance and contract count labels
Line Color: Customize the color of distance lines
Label Size: Choose tiny, small, or normal label sizes
Step 2: Read the Visual Display
Once configured, the indicator displays:
Stop Loss Line:
Thick yellow line marking your exact stop loss level
Yellow label showing the stop loss price
Distance Lines:
Dashed red lines at 10-tick intervals above and below your stop loss
Lines appear on both sides for long and short position planning
Labels (if enabled):
Green labels (right side): For long positions above your stop loss
Red labels (left side): For short positions below your stop loss
Format: "20T 5x" means 20 ticks distance, 5 contracts maximum
Step 3: Use the Information Tables
The indicator provides two helpful tables:
Position Size Table (top-right):
Shows common tick distances (10, 20, 40, 80, 160 ticks)
Displays risk per contract at each distance
Contract count for your specified risk amount
Total risk with rounded contract numbers
Settings Table (bottom-right):
Confirms your current risk amount
Shows selected contract type
Displays current settings for quick reference
Step 4: Apply to Your Trading
For Long Positions:
Look at the green labels on the right side of your chart
Find your desired entry level
Read the label to see: distance in ticks and maximum contracts
Example: "30T 8x" = 30 ticks from stop, buy 8 contracts maximum
For Short Positions:
Look at the red labels on the left side of your chart
Find your desired entry level
Read the label for tick distance and contract count
Example: "40T 6x" = 40 ticks from stop, sell 6 contracts maximum
Step 5: Trading Execution
Before Entering a Trade:
Identify your stop loss level and input it into the indicator
Choose your entry point by looking at the distance lines
Note the contract count from the corresponding label
Verify the risk amount matches your trading plan
Execute your trade with the calculated position size
Risk Management Features:
Contract rounding: All position sizes are rounded down (never up) to ensure you don't exceed your risk limit
Zero position filtering: Lines only show where position size is at least 1 contract
Dual-sided display: Plan both long and short opportunities simultaneously
Adiyogi Trend🟢🔴 “Adiyogi” Trend — Market Alignment Visualizer
“Adiyogi” Trend is a powerful, non-intrusive trend detection system built for traders who seek clarity, discipline, and alignment with true market flow. Inspired by the meditative stillness of Adiyogi and the need for mindful, high-probability decisions, this tool offers a clean and intuitive visual guide to trending environments — without cluttering the chart or pushing forced trades.
This is not a buy/sell signal generator. Instead, it is designed as a background confirmation engine that helps you stay on the right side of the market by identifying moments of true directional strength.
🧠 Core Logic
The “Adiyogi” Trend indicator highlights the background of your chart in green or red when multiple layers of strength and structure align — including momentum, market positioning, and relative force. Only when these internal components agree does the system activate a directional state.
It’s built on three foundational energies of trend confirmation:
Strength of movement
Structure in price action
Conviction in momentum
By combining these into one visual background, the indicator filters out indecision and helps you stay focused during real trend phases — whether you're day trading, swing trading, or holding longer-term positions.
📌 Core Concepts Behind the Tool
The indicator integrates three essential market filters—each confirming a different dimension of trend strength:
ADX (Average Directional Index) – Measures trend momentum.
You’ve chosen a very responsive setting (ADX Length = 2), which helps catch the earliest possible signs of momentum emergence.
The threshold is ADX ≥ 22, ensuring that weak or sideways markets are filtered out.
SuperTrend (10,1) – Captures short-term trend direction.
This setup follows price closely and reacts quickly to reversals, making it ideal for fast-moving assets or intraday strategies.
SuperTrend acts as the structural confirmation of directional bias.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Measures strength based on recent price closes.
You’ve configured RSI > 50 for bullish zones and < 50 for bearish—a neutral midpoint standard often used by professional traders.
This ensures that only trades in sync with momentum and recent strength are highlighted.
🌈 How It Visually Works
Background turns GREEN when:
ADX ≥ 22, indicating strong momentum
Price is above the 20 EMA and above SuperTrend (10,1)
RSI > 50, confirming recent strength
Background turns RED when:
ADX ≥ 22, indicating strong momentum
Price is below the 20 EMA and below SuperTrend (10,1)
RSI < 50, confirming recent weakness
The background remains neutral (transparent) when trend conditions are not clearly aligned—this is the tool's way of keeping you out of indecisive markets.
A label (BULL / BEAR) appears only when the bias flips from the previous one. This helps avoid repeated or redundant alerts, focusing your attention only when something changes.
📊 Practical Uses & Benefits
✅ Stay with the trend: Perfectly filters out choppy or sideways markets by only activating when conditions align across momentum, structure, and strength.
✅ Pre-trade confirmation: Use this tool to confirm trade setups from other indicators or price action patterns.
✅ Avoid noise: Prevent overtrading by focusing only on high-quality trend conditions.
✅ Visual clarity: Unlike arrows or plots that clutter the chart, this tool subtly highlights trend conditions in the background, preserving your price action view.
📍 Important Notes
This is not a buy/sell signal generator. It is a trend-confirmation system.
Use it in conjunction with your existing entry setups—such as breakouts, order blocks, retests, or candlestick patterns.
The tool helps you stay in sync with the dominant direction, especially when combining multiple timeframes.
Can be used on any market (stocks, forex, crypto, indices) and on any timeframe.
Frahm Factor Position Size CalculatorThe Frahm Factor Position Size Calculator is a powerful evolution of the original Frahm Factor script, leveraging its volatility analysis to dynamically adjust trading risk. This Pine Script for TradingView uses the Frahm Factor’s volatility score (1-10) to set risk percentages (1.75% to 5%) for both Margin-Based and Equity-Based position sizing. A compact table on the main chart displays Risk per Trade, Frahm Factor, and Average Candle Size, making it an essential tool for traders aligning risk with market conditions.
Calculates a volatility score (1-10) using true range percentile rank over a customizable look-back window (default 24 hours).
Dynamically sets risk percentage based on volatility:
Low volatility (score ≤ 3): 5% risk for bolder trades.
High volatility (score ≥ 8): 1.75% risk for caution.
Medium volatility (score 4-7): Smoothly interpolated (e.g., 4 → 4.3%, 5 → 3.6%).
Adjustable sensitivity via Frahm Scale Multiplier (default 9) for tailored volatility response.
Position Sizing:
Margin-Based: Risk as a percentage of total margin (e.g., $175 for 1.75% of $10,000 at high volatility).
Equity-Based: Risk as a percentage of (equity - minimum balance) (e.g., $175 for 1.75% of ($15,000 - $5,000)).
Compact 1-3 row table shows:
Risk per Trade with Frahm score (e.g., “$175.00 (Frahm: 8)”).
Frahm Factor (e.g., “Frahm Factor: 8”).
Average Candle Size (e.g., “Avg Candle: 50 t”).
Toggles to show/hide Frahm Factor and Average Candle Size rows, with no empty backgrounds.
Four sizes: XL (18x7, large text), L (13x6, normal), M (9x5, small, default), S (8x4, tiny).
Repositionable (9 positions, default: top-right).
Customizable cell color, text color, and transparency.
Set Frahm Factor:
Frahm Window (hrs): Pick how far back to measure volatility (e.g., 24 hours). Shorter for fast markets, longer for chill ones.
Frahm Scale Multiplier: Set sensitivity (1-10, default 9). Higher makes the score jumpier; lower smooths it out.
Set Margin-Based:
Total Margin: Enter your account balance (e.g., $10,000). Risk auto-adjusts via Frahm Factor.
Set Equity-Based:
Total Equity: Enter your total account balance (e.g., $15,000).
Minimum Balance: Set to the lowest your account can go before liquidation (e.g., $5,000). Risk is based on the difference, auto-adjusted by Frahm Factor.
Customize Display:
Calculation Method: Pick Margin-Based or Equity-Based.
Table Position: Choose where the table sits (e.g., top_right).
Table Size: Select XL, L, M, or S (default M, small text).
Table Cell Color: Set background color (default blue).
Table Text Color: Set text color (default white).
Table Cell Transparency: Adjust transparency (0 = solid, 100 = invisible, default 80).
Show Frahm Factor & Show Avg Candle Size: Check to show these rows, uncheck to hide (default on).
Logarithmic Moving Average (LMA) [QuantAlgo]🟢 Overview
The Logarithmic Moving Average (LMA) uses advanced logarithmic weighting to create a dynamic trend-following indicator that prioritizes recent price action while maintaining statistical significance. Unlike traditional moving averages that use linear or exponential weights, this indicator employs logarithmic decay functions to create a more sophisticated price averaging system that adapts to market volatility and momentum conditions.
The indicator displays a smoothed signal line that oscillates around zero, with positive values indicating bullish momentum and negative values indicating bearish momentum. The signal incorporates trend quality assessment, momentum confirmation, and multiple filtering mechanisms to help traders and investors identify trend continuation and reversal opportunities across different timeframes and asset classes.
🟢 How It Works
The indicator's core innovation lies in its logarithmic weighting system, where weights are calculated using the formula: w = 1.0 / math.pow(math.log(i + steepness), 2) The steepness parameter controls how aggressively recent data is prioritized over historical data, creating a dynamic weight decay that can be fine-tuned for different trading styles. This logarithmic approach provides more nuanced weight distribution compared to exponential moving averages, offering better responsiveness while maintaining stability.
The LMA calculation combines multiple sophisticated components. First, it calculates the logarithmic weighted average of closing prices. Then it measures the slope of this average over a 10-period lookback: lmaSlope = (lma - lma ) / lma * 100 The system also incorporates trend quality assessment using R-squared correlation analysis of log-transformed prices, measuring how well the price data fits a linear trend model over the specified period.
The final signal generation uses the formula: signal = lmaSlope * (0.5 + rSquared * 0.5) which combines the LMA slope with trend quality weighting. When momentum confirmation is enabled, the indicator calculates annualized log-return momentum and applies a multiplier when the momentum direction aligns with the signal direction, strengthening confirmed signals while filtering out weak or counter-trend movements.
🟢 How to Use
1. Signal Interpretation and Threshold Zones
Positive Values (Above Zero): LMA slope indicating bullish momentum with upward price trajectory relative to logarithmic baseline
Negative Values (Below Zero): LMA slope indicating bearish momentum with downward price trajectory relative to logarithmic baseline
Zero Line Crosses: Signal transitions between bullish and bearish regimes, indicating potential trend changes
Long Entry Threshold Zone: Area above positive threshold (default 0.5) indicating confirmed bullish signals suitable for long positions
Short Entry Threshold Zone: Area below negative threshold (default -0.5) indicating confirmed bearish signals suitable for short positions
Extreme Values: Signals exceeding ±1.0 represent strong momentum conditions with higher probability of continuation
2. Momentum Confirmation and Visual Analysis
Signal Color Intensity: Gradient coloring shows signal strength, with brighter colors indicating stronger momentum
Bar Coloring: Optional price bar coloring matches signal direction for quick visual trend identification
Position Labels: Real-time position classification (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral) displayed on the latest bar
Momentum Weight Factor: When short-term log-return momentum aligns with LMA signal direction, the signal receives additional weight confirmation
Trend Quality Component: R-squared values weight the signal strength, with higher correlation indicating more reliable trend conditions
3. Examples: Preconfigured Settings
Default: Universally applicable configuration balanced for medium-term investing and general trading across multiple timeframes and asset classes.
Scalping: Highly responsive setup with shorter period and higher steepness for ultra-short-term trades on 1-15 minute charts, optimized for quick momentum shifts.
Swing Trading: Extended period with moderate steepness and increased smoothing for multi-day positions, designed to filter noise while capturing larger price swings on 1-4 hour and daily charts.
Trend Following: Maximum smoothing with lower steepness for established trend identification, generating fewer but more reliable signals optimal for daily and weekly timeframes.
Mean Reversion: Shorter period with high steepness for counter-trend strategies, more sensitive to extreme moves and reversal opportunities in ranging market conditions.
Aetherium Institutional Market Resonance EngineAetherium Institutional Market Resonance Engine (AIMRE)
A Three-Pillar Framework for Decoding Institutional Activity
🎓 THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The Aetherium Institutional Market Resonance Engine (AIMRE) is a multi-faceted analysis system designed to move beyond conventional indicators and decode the market's underlying structure as dictated by institutional capital flow. Its philosophy is built on a singular premise: significant market moves are preceded by a convergence of context , location , and timing . Aetherium quantifies these three dimensions through a revolutionary three-pillar architecture.
This system is not a simple combination of indicators; it is an integrated engine where each pillar's analysis feeds into a central logic core. A signal is only generated when all three pillars achieve a state of resonance, indicating a high-probability alignment between market organization, key liquidity levels, and cyclical momentum.
⚡ THE THREE-PILLAR ARCHITECTURE
1. 🌌 PILLAR I: THE COHERENCE ENGINE (THE 'CONTEXT')
Purpose: To measure the degree of organization within the market. This pillar answers the question: " Is the market acting with a unified purpose, or is it chaotic and random? "
Conceptual Framework: Institutional campaigns (accumulation or distribution) create a non-random, organized market environment. Retail-driven or directionless markets are characterized by "noise" and chaos. The Coherence Engine acts as a filter to ensure we only engage when institutional players are actively steering the market.
Formulaic Concept:
Coherence = f(Dominance, Synchronization)
Dominance Factor: Calculates the absolute difference between smoothed buying pressure (volume-weighted bullish candles) and smoothed selling pressure (volume-weighted bearish candles), normalized by total pressure. A high value signifies a clear winner between buyers and sellers.
Synchronization Factor: Measures the correlation between the streams of buying and selling pressure over the analysis window. A high positive correlation indicates synchronized, directional activity, while a negative correlation suggests choppy, conflicting action.
The final Coherence score (0-100) represents the percentage of market organization. A high score is a prerequisite for any signal, filtering out unpredictable market conditions.
2. 💎 PILLAR II: HARMONIC LIQUIDITY MATRIX (THE 'LOCATION')
Purpose: To identify and map high-impact institutional footprints. This pillar answers the question: " Where have institutions previously committed significant capital? "
Conceptual Framework: Large institutional orders leave indelible marks on the market in the form of anomalous volume spikes at specific price levels. These are not random occurrences but are areas of intense historical interest. The Harmonic Liquidity Matrix finds these footprints and consolidates them into actionable support and resistance zones called "Harmonic Nodes."
Algorithmic Process:
Footprint Identification: The engine scans the historical lookback period for candles where volume > average_volume * Institutional_Volume_Filter. This identifies statistically significant volume events.
Node Creation: A raw node is created at the mean price of the identified candle.
Dynamic Clustering: The engine uses an ATR-based proximity algorithm. If a new footprint is identified within Node_Clustering_Distance (ATR) of an existing Harmonic Node, it is merged. The node's price is volume-weighted, and its magnitude is increased. This prevents chart clutter and consolidates nearby institutional orders into a single, more significant level.
Node Decay: Nodes that are older than the Institutional_Liquidity_Scanback period are automatically removed from the chart, ensuring the analysis remains relevant to recent market dynamics.
3. 🌊 PILLAR III: CYCLICAL RESONANCE MATRIX (THE 'TIMING')
Purpose: To identify the market's dominant rhythm and its current phase. This pillar answers the question: " Is the market's immediate energy flowing up or down? "
Conceptual Framework: Markets move in waves and cycles of varying lengths. Trading in harmony with the current cyclical phase dramatically increases the probability of success. Aetherium employs a simplified wavelet analysis concept to decompose price action into short, medium, and long-term cycles.
Algorithmic Process:
Cycle Decomposition: The engine calculates three oscillators based on the difference between pairs of Exponential Moving Averages (e.g., EMA8-EMA13 for short cycle, EMA21-EMA34 for medium cycle).
Energy Measurement: The 'energy' of each cycle is determined by its recent volatility (standard deviation). The cycle with the highest energy is designated as the "Dominant Cycle."
Phase Analysis: The engine determines if the dominant cycles are in a bullish phase (rising from a trough) or a bearish phase (falling from a peak).
Cycle Sync: The highest conviction timing signals occur when multiple cycles (e.g., short and medium) are synchronized in the same direction, indicating broad-based momentum.
🔧 COMPREHENSIVE INPUT SYSTEM
Pillar I: Market Coherence Engine
Coherence Analysis Window (10-50, Default: 21): The lookback period for the Coherence Engine.
Lower Values (10-15): Highly responsive to rapid shifts in market control. Ideal for scalping but can be sensitive to noise.
Balanced (20-30): Excellent for day trading, capturing the ebb and flow of institutional sessions.
Higher Values (35-50): Smoother, more stable reading. Best for swing trading and identifying long-term institutional campaigns.
Coherence Activation Level (50-90%, Default: 70%): The minimum market organization required to enable signal generation.
Strict (80-90%): Only allows signals in extremely clear, powerful trends. Fewer, but potentially higher quality signals.
Standard (65-75%): A robust filter that effectively removes choppy conditions while capturing most valid institutional moves.
Lenient (50-60%): Allows signals in less-organized markets. Can be useful in ranging markets but may increase false signals.
Pillar II: Harmonic Liquidity Matrix
Institutional Liquidity Scanback (100-400, Default: 200): How far back the engine looks for institutional footprints.
Short (100-150): Focuses on recent institutional activity, providing highly relevant, immediate levels.
Long (300-400): Identifies major, long-term structural levels. These nodes are often extremely powerful but may be less frequent.
Institutional Volume Filter (1.3-3.0, Default: 1.8): The multiplier for detecting a volume spike.
High (2.5-3.0): Only registers climactic, undeniable institutional volume. Fewer, but more significant nodes.
Low (1.3-1.7): More sensitive, identifying smaller but still relevant institutional interest.
Node Clustering Distance (0.2-0.8 ATR, Default: 0.4): The ATR-based distance for merging nearby nodes.
High (0.6-0.8): Creates wider, more consolidated zones of liquidity.
Low (0.2-0.3): Creates more numerous, precise, and distinct levels.
Pillar III: Cyclical Resonance Matrix
Cycle Resonance Analysis (30-100, Default: 50): The lookback for determining cycle energy and dominance.
Short (30-40): Tunes the engine to faster, shorter-term market rhythms. Best for scalping.
Long (70-100): Aligns the timing component with the larger primary trend. Best for swing trading.
Institutional Signal Architecture
Signal Quality Mode (Professional, Elite, Supreme): Controls the strictness of the three-pillar confluence.
Professional: Loosest setting. May generate signals if two of the three pillars are in strong alignment. Increases signal frequency.
Elite: Balanced setting. Requires a clear, unambiguous resonance of all three pillars. The recommended default.
Supreme: Most stringent. Requires perfect alignment of all three pillars, with each pillar exhibiting exceptionally strong readings (e.g., coherence > 85%). The highest conviction signals.
Signal Spacing Control (5-25, Default: 10): The minimum bars between signals to prevent clutter and redundant alerts.
🎨 ADVANCED VISUAL SYSTEM
The visual architecture of Aetherium is designed not merely for aesthetics, but to provide an intuitive, at-a-glance understanding of the complex data being processed.
Harmonic Liquidity Nodes: The core visual element. Displayed as multi-layered, semi-transparent horizontal boxes.
Magnitude Visualization: The height and opacity of a node's "glow" are proportional to its volume magnitude. More significant nodes appear brighter and larger, instantly drawing the eye to key levels.
Color Coding: Standard nodes are blue/purple, while exceptionally high-magnitude nodes are highlighted in an accent color to denote critical importance.
🌌 Quantum Resonance Field: A dynamic background gradient that visualizes the overall market environment.
Color: Shifts from cool blues/purples (low coherence) to energetic greens/cyans (high coherence and organization), providing instant context.
Intensity: The brightness and opacity of the field are influenced by total market energy (a composite of coherence, momentum, and volume), making powerful market states visually apparent.
💎 Crystalline Lattice Matrix: A geometric web of lines projected from a central moving average.
Mathematical Basis: Levels are projected using multiples of the Golden Ratio (Phi ≈ 1.618) and the ATR. This visualizes the natural harmonic and fractal structure of the market. It is not arbitrary but is based on mathematical principles of market geometry.
🧠 Synaptic Flow Network: A dynamic particle system visualizing the engine's "thought process."
Node Density & Activation: The number of particles and their brightness/color are tied directly to the Market Coherence score. In high-coherence states, the network becomes a dense, bright, and organized web. In chaotic states, it becomes sparse and dim.
⚡ Institutional Energy Waves: Flowing sine waves that visualize market volatility and rhythm.
Amplitude & Speed: The height and speed of the waves are directly influenced by the ATR and volume, providing a feel for market energy.
📊 INSTITUTIONAL CONTROL MATRIX (DASHBOARD)
The dashboard is the central command console, providing a real-time, quantitative summary of each pillar's status.
Header: Displays the script title and version.
Coherence Engine Section:
State: Displays a qualitative assessment of market organization: ◉ PHASE LOCK (High Coherence), ◎ ORGANIZING (Moderate Coherence), or ○ CHAOTIC (Low Coherence). Color-coded for immediate recognition.
Power: Shows the precise Coherence percentage and a directional arrow (↗ or ↘) indicating if organization is increasing or decreasing.
Liquidity Matrix Section:
Nodes: Displays the total number of active Harmonic Liquidity Nodes currently being tracked.
Target: Shows the price level of the nearest significant Harmonic Node to the current price, representing the most immediate institutional level of interest.
Cycle Matrix Section:
Cycle: Identifies the currently dominant market cycle (e.g., "MID ") based on cycle energy.
Sync: Indicates the alignment of the cyclical forces: ▲ BULLISH , ▼ BEARISH , or ◆ DIVERGENT . This is the core timing confirmation.
Signal Status Section:
A unified status bar that provides the final verdict of the engine. It will display "QUANTUM SCAN" during neutral periods, or announce the tier and direction of an active signal (e.g., "◉ TIER 1 BUY ◉" ), highlighted with the appropriate color.
🎯 SIGNAL GENERATION LOGIC
Aetherium's signal logic is built on the principle of strict, non-negotiable confluence.
Condition 1: Context (Coherence Filter): The Market Coherence must be above the Coherence Activation Level. No signals can be generated in a chaotic market.
Condition 2: Location (Liquidity Node Interaction): Price must be actively interacting with a significant Harmonic Liquidity Node.
For a Buy Signal: Price must be rejecting the Node from below (testing it as support).
For a Sell Signal: Price must be rejecting the Node from above (testing it as resistance).
Condition 3: Timing (Cycle Alignment): The Cyclical Resonance Matrix must confirm that the dominant cycles are synchronized with the intended trade direction.
Signal Tiering: The Signal Quality Mode input determines how strictly these three conditions must be met. 'Supreme' mode, for example, might require not only that the conditions are met, but that the Market Coherence is exceptionally high and the interaction with the Node is accompanied by a significant volume spike.
Signal Spacing: A final filter ensures that signals are spaced by a minimum number of bars, preventing over-alerting in a single move.
🚀 ADVANCED TRADING STRATEGIES
The Primary Confluence Strategy: The intended use of the system. Wait for a Tier 1 (Elite/Supreme) or Tier 2 (Professional/Elite) signal to appear on the chart. This represents the alignment of all three pillars. Enter after the signal bar closes, with a stop-loss placed logically on the other side of the Harmonic Node that triggered the signal.
The Coherence Context Strategy: Use the Coherence Engine as a standalone market filter. When Coherence is high (>70%), favor trend-following strategies. When Coherence is low (<50%), avoid new directional trades or favor range-bound strategies. A sharp drop in Coherence during a trend can be an early warning of a trend's exhaustion.
Node-to-Node Trading: In a high-coherence environment, use the Harmonic Liquidity Nodes as both entry points and profit targets. For example, after a BUY signal is generated at one Node, the next Node above it becomes a logical first profit target.
⚖️ RESPONSIBLE USAGE AND LIMITATIONS
Decision Support, Not a Crystal Ball: Aetherium is an advanced decision-support tool. It is designed to identify high-probability conditions based on a model of institutional behavior. It does not predict the future.
Risk Management is Paramount: No indicator can replace a sound risk management plan. Always use appropriate position sizing and stop-losses. The signals provided are probabilistic, not certainties.
Past Performance Disclaimer: The market models used in this script are based on historical data. While robust, there is no guarantee that these patterns will persist in the future. Market conditions can and do change.
Not a "Set and Forget" System: The indicator performs best when its user understands the concepts behind the three pillars. Use the dashboard and visual cues to build a comprehensive view of the market before acting on a signal.
Backtesting is Essential: Before applying this tool to live trading, it is crucial to backtest and forward-test it on your preferred instruments and timeframes to understand its unique behavior and characteristics.
🔮 CONCLUSION
The Aetherium Institutional Market Resonance Engine represents a paradigm shift from single-variable analysis to a holistic, multi-pillar framework. By quantifying the abstract concepts of market context, location, and timing into a unified, logical system, it provides traders with an unprecedented lens into the mechanics of institutional market operations.
It is not merely an indicator, but a complete analytical engine designed to foster a deeper understanding of market dynamics. By focusing on the core principles of institutional order flow, Aetherium empowers traders to filter out market noise, identify key structural levels, and time their entries in harmony with the market's underlying rhythm.
"In all chaos there is a cosmos, in all disorder a secret order." - Carl Jung
— Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with confluence. Trade with Aetherium.
TPO[Fixed Range, Anchored, Bars Back]TPO Bars Back, Fixed Range and Anchored
Overview
The TPO Profile (Time Price Opportunity Profile) is a powerful market profile indicator that displays the amount of time price spent at different levels during a specified period. Unlike traditional volume profile indicators that show volume distribution, TPO Profile shows time distribution , providing insights into where price has spent the most time and identifying key support and resistance levels.
Key Advantages Over TradingView's Built-in TPO
Simplified Composite Creation : Automatically creates TPO profiles for any time range without manual split/merge operations
Instant Value Area Calculation : Immediately shows Value Area, POC, VAH, and VAL for your selected period
No Manual Assembly Required : TradingView's native TPO requires you to manually split sessions and merge them to create composites - this indicator does it automatically
Flexible Time Ranges : Create composites for any custom time period (multiple days, weeks, specific events) with a few clicks
Real-time Composite Updates : Anchor mode creates live composites that update as new data arrives
Multiple Composite Analysis : Easily compare different time periods without the tedious manual process
Key Features
Core Functionality
Time-Based Analysis : Shows time spent at each price level rather than volume
Configurable Time Blocks : Use any timeframe for TPO counting (30min, 1H, 4H, etc.)
Multiple Price Levels : Adjustable from 5 to 200 levels for granular analysis
Point of Control (POC) : Automatically identifies the price level with highest time activity
Value Area Calculation : Shows the price range containing 70% (configurable) of time activity
Automatic Composite Generation : Creates multi-session composites without manual intervention
Three Operating Modes
1. Bars Back Mode
Analyzes the last N bars from the current bar
Perfect for recent market activity analysis
Range: 10-500 bars
Use Case : Intraday analysis, recent session review
2. Fixed Range Mode
Analyzes a specific time period between start and end times
Ideal for historical analysis of specific events
Creates perfect composites for multi-day periods
Use Case : Earnings periods, news events, specific trading sessions, weekly/monthly composites
3. Anchor Mode (NEW)
Starts from a specific time and extends to the current bar
Dynamically updates as new bars form
Perfect for building live composites from any starting point
Use Case : Live session monitoring, event-based analysis from a specific point, growing composites
Visual Elements
TPO Bars
Horizontal bars showing time distribution at each price level
Longer bars = more time spent at that level
Color-coded to distinguish Value Area from outlying levels
Point of Control (POC)
Red line marking the price level with highest time activity
Most significant support/resistance level
Configurable line style (Solid/Dashed/Dotted) and width
Value Area High/Low (VAH/VAL)
Green and Orange lines marking the boundaries of the Value Area
Shows the price range containing the specified percentage of time activity
Optional display with customizable line styles
Single Print Detection
Identifies price levels touched by only one time block
Display options: Lines or Boxes
Purple color highlighting these significant levels
Often act as strong support/resistance in future trading
Customization Options
Time Block Configuration
Block Time : Choose timeframe for TPO counting (30min, 1H, 4H, etc.)
Allows analysis at different time granularities
Higher timeframes = broader perspective, Lower timeframes = finer detail
Visual Styling
Line Styles : Solid, Dashed, or Dotted for all line elements
Line Widths : 1-5 pixels for POC, VAH, and VAL lines
Colors : Fully customizable colors for all elements
Transparency : Adjustable transparency for better chart readability
Label Management
Show/Hide Labels : Toggle POC, VAH, VAL labels
Font Sizes : Tiny, Small, Normal, Large, Huge
Label Positioning : 8 different position options relative to lines
Offset Controls : Fine-tune label positioning
Line Extension
Level Offset Right : Controls how far lines extend
Smart extension logic:
Value ≤ 0: Infinite extension (extend.right)
Value ≥ 1: Extends exactly N bars ahead
Trading Applications
Support & Resistance
POC often acts as strong support/resistance
Value Area boundaries provide key levels
Single prints frequently become significant levels
Market Structure Analysis
Identify areas of price acceptance (thick TPO bars)
Spot areas of price rejection (thin TPO bars)
Understand where market participants are comfortable trading
Composite Profile Analysis
Create multi-day, weekly, or monthly composites instantly
Compare different composite periods without manual work
Analyze longer-term price acceptance levels
Build composites around specific events or announcements
Session Analysis
Monitor intraday session development in real-time
Compare different sessions (London, New York, Asia)
Track how profiles change throughout the trading day
Build live composites across multiple sessions
Event Analysis
Use Fixed Range mode for earnings, news events
Use Anchor mode to track price development from specific events
Compare pre/post event price acceptance levels
Create event-based composites automatically
Input Parameters
Mode Selection
Mode : Bars Back | Fixed Range | Anchor
Bars Back : Number of bars to analyze (10-500)
Start Time : Beginning time for Fixed Range and Anchor modes
End Time : Ending time for Fixed Range mode only
Analysis Configuration
Block Time : Timeframe for TPO blocks (e.g., "30" for 30-minute blocks)
TPO Levels : Number of price levels (5-200)
Value Area % : Percentage for Value Area calculation (50-95%)
Display Options
Show POC : Display Point of Control line
Show Value Area : Display Value Area box
Show VAH/VAL Lines : Display Value Area boundary lines
Show Single Prints : Display single print detection
Single Print Style : Lines or Boxes
Styling Controls
Colors : TPO, POC, Value Area, VAH, VAL, Single Print colors
Line Styles : POC, VAH, VAL line styles
Line Widths : POC, VAH, VAL line widths
Labels : Show/hide, font size, position, offset controls
Technical Details
Calculation Method
Divides the price range into equal levels based on TPO Levels setting
For each time block, determines which price levels it crosses
Adds +1 count to each crossed level
Identifies POC as the level with highest count
Calculates Value Area by expanding from POC until target percentage is reached
Performance Considerations
Historical data limited to prevent buffer overflow errors
Smart bounds checking for different timeframes
Optimized cleanup routines to prevent drawing object accumulation
Pine Script Version
Built on Pine Script v6
Uses modern Pine Script best practices
Efficient array handling and drawing object management
Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
Block Time = Chart Timeframe : Traditional TPO approach
Block Time > Chart Timeframe : Smoother, broader perspective
Block Time < Chart Timeframe : More granular, detailed analysis
Level Count Guidelines
Low levels (10-20) : Better for swing trading, major levels
High levels (50-100) : Better for scalping, precise entries
Very high levels (100+) : For very detailed analysis
Mode Selection
Bars Back : Daily analysis, recent activity
Fixed Range : Historical events, specific periods, manual composites
Anchor : Live monitoring, event-based analysis, growing composites
Composite Creation Workflow
Select Fixed Range or Anchor mode
Set your desired start time (and end time for Fixed Range)
Adjust TPO Levels for desired granularity
Enable VAH/VAL lines to see Value Area boundaries
The composite profile generates automatically with all key levels
This indicator eliminates the tedious manual process of creating composite TPO profiles in TradingView. Instead of splitting sessions and manually merging them, you get instant composite analysis with automatic Value Area calculation, POC identification, and single print detection. The combination of time-based analysis, multiple operating modes, and extensive customization options makes it a powerful tool for understanding market structure and price acceptance levels across any time period.
