BTCUSD with adjustable sl,tpThis strategy is designed for swing traders who want to enter long positions on pullbacks after a short-term trend shift, while also allowing immediate short entries when conditions favor downside movement. It combines SMA crossovers, a fixed-percentage retracement entry, and adjustable risk management parameters for optimal trade execution.
Key Features:
✅ Trend Confirmation with SMA Crossover
The 10-period SMA crossing above the 25-period SMA signals a bullish trend shift.
The 10-period SMA crossing below the 25-period SMA signals a bearish trend shift.
Short trades are only taken if the price is below the 150 EMA, ensuring alignment with the broader trend.
📉 Long Pullback Entry Using Fixed Percentage Retracement
Instead of entering immediately on the SMA crossover, the strategy waits for a retracement before going long.
The pullback entry is defined as a percentage retracement from the recent high, allowing for an optimized entry price.
The retracement percentage is fully adjustable in the settings (default: 1%).
A dynamic support level is plotted on the chart to visualize the pullback entry zone.
📊 Short Entry Rules
If the SMA(10) crosses below the SMA(25) and price is below the 150 EMA, a short trade is immediately entered.
Risk Management & Exit Strategy:
🚀 Take Profit (TP) – Fully customizable profit target in points. (Default: 1000 points)
🛑 Stop Loss (SL) – Adjustable stop loss level in points. (Default: 250 points)
🔄 Break-Even (BE) – When price moves in favor by a set number of points, the stop loss is moved to break-even.
📌 Extra Exit Condition for Longs:
If the SMA(10) crosses below SMA(25) while the price is still below the EMA150, the strategy force-exits the long position to avoid reversals.
How to Use This Strategy:
Enable the strategy on your TradingView chart (recommended for stocks, forex, or indices).
Customize the settings – Adjust TP, SL, BE, and pullback percentage for your risk tolerance.
Observe the plotted retracement levels – When the price touches and bounces off the level, a long trade is triggered.
Let the strategy manage the trade – Break-even protection and take-profit logic will automatically execute.
Ideal Market Conditions:
✅ Trending Markets – The strategy works best when price follows strong trends.
✅ Stocks, Indices, or Forex – Can be applied across multiple asset classes.
✅ Medium-Term Holding Period – Suitable for swing trades lasting days to weeks.
"汇丰股票25" için komut dosyalarını ara
O'Neil Earnings StabilityO'Neil Earnings Stability Indicator
This indicator implements William O'Neil's earnings stability analysis, a key factor in identifying high-quality growth stocks. It measures both earnings stability (1-99 scale) and growth rate.
Scale Interpretation:
• 1-25: Highly stable earnings (ideal)
• 26-30: Moderately stable
• >30: More cyclical/less dependable
The stability score is calculated by measuring deviations from the earnings trend line, with lower scores indicating more consistent growth. Combined with the annual growth rate (target ≥25%), this helps identify stocks with both steady and strong earnings growth.
Optimal Criteria:
✓ Stability Score < 25
✓ Annual Growth > 25%
This tool helps filter out stocks with erratic earnings patterns and identify those with proven, sustainable growth records. Green label indicates both criteria are met; red indicates one or both criteria failed."
Would you like me to modify any part of this description or add more details about specific aspects of the calculation?
The key concepts in these calculations:
Stability Score (1-99 scale):
Lower score = more stable
Takes average deviation from mean earnings
Uses logarithmic scaling to emphasize smaller deviations
Multiplies by 20 to get into 1-99 range
Score ≤ 25 meets O'Neil's criteria
Growth Rate:
Year-over-year comparison (current quarter vs same quarter last year)
Calculated as percentage change
Growth ≥ 25% meets O'Neil's criteria
O'Neil's Combined Criteria:
Stability Score should be ≤ 25 (indicating stable earnings)
Growth Rate should be ≥ 25% (indicating strong growth)
Both must be met for ideal conditions
MTF RSI CandlesThis Pine Script indicator is designed to provide a visual representation of Relative Strength Index (RSI) values across multiple timeframes. It enhances traditional candlestick charts by color-coding candles based on RSI levels, offering a clearer picture of overbought, oversold, and sideways market conditions. Additionally, it displays a hoverable table with RSI values for multiple predefined timeframes.
Key Features
1. Candle Coloring Based on RSI Levels:
Candles are color-coded based on predefined RSI ranges for easy interpretation of market conditions.
RSI Levels:
75-100: Strongest Overbought (Green)
65-75: Stronger Overbought (Dark Green)
55-65: Overbought (Teal)
45-55: Sideways (Gray)
35-45: Oversold (Light Red)
25-35: Stronger Oversold (Dark Red)
0-25: Strongest Oversold (Bright Red)
2. Multi-Timeframe RSI Table:
Displays RSI values for the following timeframes:
1 Min, 2 Min, 3 Min, 4 Min, 5 Min
10 Min, 15 Min, 30 Min, 1 Hour, 1 Day, 1 Week
Helps traders identify RSI trends across different time horizons.
3. Hoverable RSI Values:
Displays the RSI value of any candle when hovering over it, providing additional insights for analysis.
Inputs
1. RSI Length:
Default: 14
Determines the calculation period for the RSI indicator.
2. RSI Levels:
Configurable thresholds for RSI zones:
75-100: Strongest Overbought
65-75: Stronger Overbought
55-65: Overbought
45-55: Sideways
35-45: Oversold
25-35: Stronger Oversold
0-25: Strongest Oversold
How It Works:
1. RSI Calculation:
The RSI is calculated for the current timeframe using the input RSI Length.
It is also computed for 11 additional predefined timeframes using request.security.
2. Candle Coloring:
Candles are colored based on their RSI values and the specified RSI levels.
3. Hoverable RSI Values:
Each candle displays its RSI value when hovered over, via a dynamically created label.
Multi-Timeframe Table:
A table at the bottom-left of the chart displays RSI values for all predefined timeframes, making it easy to compare trends.
Usage:
1. Trend Identification:
Use candle colors to quickly assess market conditions (overbought, oversold, or sideways).
2. Timeframe Analysis:
Compare RSI values across different timeframes to determine long-term and short-term momentum.
3. Signal Confirmation:
Combine RSI signals with other indicators or patterns for higher-confidence trades.
Best Practices
Use this indicator in conjunction with volume analysis, support/resistance levels, or trendline strategies for better results.
Customize RSI levels and timeframes based on your trading strategy or market conditions.
Limitations
RSI is a lagging indicator and may not always predict immediate market reversals.
Multi-timeframe analysis can lead to conflicting signals; consider your trading horizon.
DNSE VN301!, SMA & EMA Cross StrategyDiscover the tailored Pinescript to trade VN30F1M Future Contracts intraday, the strategy focuses on SMA & EMA crosses to identify potential entry/exit points. The script closes all positions by 14:25 to avoid holding any contracts overnight.
HNX:VN301!
www.tradingview.com
Setting & Backtest result:
1-minute chart, initial capital of VND 100 million, entering 4 contracts per time, backtest result from Jan-2024 to Nov-2024 yielded a return over 40%, executed over 1,000 trades (average of 4 trades/day), winning trades rate ~ 30% with a profit factor of 1.10.
The default setting of the script:
A decent optimization is reached when SMA and EMA periods are set to 60 and 15 respectively while the Long/Short stop-loss level is set to 20 ticks (2 points) from the entry price.
Entry & Exit conditions:
Long signals are generated when ema(15) crosses over sma(60) while Short signals happen when ema(15) crosses under sma(60). Long orders are closed when ema(15) crosses under sma(60) while Short orders are closed when ema(15) crosses over sma(60).
Exit conditions happen when (whichever came first):
Another Long/Short signal is generated
The Stop-loss level is reached
The Cut-off time is reached (14:25 every day)
*Disclaimers:
Futures Contracts Trading are subjected to a high degree of risk and price movements can fluctuate significantly. This script functions as a reference source and should be used after users have clearly understood how futures trading works, accessed their risk tolerance level, and are knowledgeable of the functioning logic behind the script.
Users are solely responsible for their investment decisions, and DNSE is not responsible for any potential losses from applying such a strategy to real-life trading activities. Past performance is not indicative/guarantee of future results, kindly reach out to us should you have specific questions about this script.
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Khám phá Pinescript được thiết kế riêng để giao dịch Hợp đồng tương lai VN30F1M trong ngày, chiến lược tập trung vào các đường SMA & EMA cắt nhau để xác định các điểm vào/ra tiềm năng. Chiến lược sẽ đóng tất cả các vị thế trước 14:25 để tránh giữ bất kỳ hợp đồng nào qua đêm.
Thiết lập & Kết quả backtest:
Chart 1 phút, vốn ban đầu là 100 triệu đồng, vào 4 hợp đồng mỗi lần, kết quả backtest từ tháng 1/2024 tới tháng 11/2024 mang lại lợi nhuận trên 40%, thực hiện hơn 1.000 giao dịch (trung bình 4 giao dịch/ngày), tỷ lệ giao dịch thắng ~ 30% với hệ số lợi nhuận là 1,10.
Thiết lập mặc định của chiến lược:
Đạt được một mức tối ưu ổn khi SMA và EMA periods được đặt lần lượt là 60 và 15 trong khi mức cắt lỗ được đặt thành 20 tick (2 điểm) từ giá vào.
Điều kiện Mở và Đóng vị thế:
Tín hiệu Long được tạo ra khi ema(15) cắt trên sma(60) trong khi tín hiệu Short xảy ra khi ema(15) cắt dưới sma(60). Lệnh Long được đóng khi ema(15) cắt dưới sma(60) trong khi lệnh Short được đóng khi ema(15) cắt lên sma(60).
Điều kiện đóng vị thể xảy ra khi (tùy điều kiện nào đến trước):
Một tín hiệu Long/Short khác được tạo ra
Giá chạm mức cắt lỗ
Lệnh chưa đóng nhưng tới giờ cut-off (14:25 hàng ngày)
*Tuyên bố miễn trừ trách nhiệm:
Giao dịch hợp đồng tương lai có mức rủi ro cao và giá có thể dao động đáng kể. Chiến lược này hoạt động như một nguồn tham khảo và nên được sử dụng sau khi người dùng đã hiểu rõ cách thức giao dịch hợp đồng tương lai, đã đánh giá mức độ chấp nhận rủi ro của bản thân và hiểu rõ về logic vận hành của chiến lược này.
Người dùng hoàn toàn chịu trách nhiệm về các quyết định đầu tư của mình và DNSE không chịu trách nhiệm về bất kỳ khoản lỗ tiềm ẩn nào khi áp dụng chiến lược này vào các hoạt động giao dịch thực tế. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không chỉ ra/cam kết kết quả trong tương lai, vui lòng liên hệ với chúng tôi nếu bạn có thắc mắc cụ thể về chiến lược giao dịch này.
RSI 15/60 and ADX PlotIn this script, the buy and sell criteria are based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) values calculated for two different timeframes: the 15-minute RSI and the hourly RSI. These timeframes are used together to check signals when certain thresholds are crossed, providing confirmation across both short-term and longer-term momentum.
Buy Criteria:
Condition 1:
Hourly RSI > 60: This means the longer-term momentum shows strength.
15-minute RSI crosses above 60: This shows that the shorter-term momentum is catching up and confirms increasing strength.
Condition 2:
15-minute RSI > 60: This indicates that the short-term trend is already strong.
Hourly RSI crosses above 60: This confirms that the longer-term trend is also gaining strength.
Both conditions aim to capture the moments when the market shows increasing strength across both short and long timeframes, signaling a potential buy opportunity.
Sell Criteria:
Condition 1:
Hourly RSI < 40: This indicates that the longer-term trend is weakening.
15-minute RSI crosses below 40: The short-term momentum is also turning down, confirming the weakening trend.
Condition 2:
15-minute RSI < 40: The short-term trend is already weak.
Hourly RSI crosses below 40: The longer-term trend is now confirming the weakness, indicating a potential sell.
These conditions work to identify when the market is showing weakness in both short-term and long-term timeframes, signaling a potential sell opportunity.
ADX Confirmation :
The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a key tool for measuring the strength of a trend. It can be used alongside the RSI to confirm whether a buy or sell signal is occurring in a strong trend or during market consolidation. Here's how ADX can be integrated:
ADX > 25: This indicates a strong trend. Using this threshold, you can confirm buy or sell signals when there is a strong upward or downward movement in the market.
Buy Example: If a buy signal (RSI > 60) is triggered and the ADX is above 25, this confirms that the market is in a strong uptrend, making the buy signal more reliable.
Sell Example: If a sell signal (RSI < 40) is triggered and the ADX is above 25, it confirms a strong downtrend, validating the sell signal.
ADX < 25: This suggests a weak or non-existent trend. In this case, RSI signals might be less reliable since the market could be moving sideways.
Final Approach:
The RSI criteria help identify potential overbought and oversold conditions in both short and long timeframes.
The ADX confirmation ensures that the signals generated are happening during strong trends, increasing the likelihood of successful trades by filtering out weak or choppy market conditions.
This combination of RSI and ADX can help traders make more informed decisions by ensuring both momentum and trend strength align before entering or exiting trades.
Average Directional Index with MACombining the Average Directional Index (ADX) with a 14-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) can provide traders with a comprehensive approach to identify both the strength of a trend (through ADX) and the trend's direction (using EMA). Let's break down each component and then discuss how they can be combined:
Average Directional Index (ADX):
The ADX is a technical indicator that measures the strength or momentum of a trend, regardless of its direction. The ADX is derived from two other indicators:
Positive Directional Index (+DI): Measures the strength of upward price movement.
Negative Directional Index (-DI): Measures the strength of downward price movement.
14-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA):
The 14-period EMA is a trend-following indicator that gives more weight to recent price data compared to simple moving averages (SMAs). The EMA is calculated by taking the average of the last 14 closing prices, giving more importance to the most recent prices.
Combining ADX and EMA:
When combining ADX with a 14-period EMA:
ADX as a Filter:
Traders might use the ADX to filter out trades when the trend's strength is weak (e.g., ADX below 25) to avoid trading in sideways or choppy markets.
EMA for Trend Direction:
Traders can use the 14-period EMA to determine the trend direction.
A price above the 14-period EMA might indicate an uptrend, while a price below the EMA might suggest a downtrend.
Example Strategy:
Here's a simplified trading strategy combining ADX and EMA:
Trend Identification:
Buy when the price is above the 14-period EMA and the ADX indicates a strong uptrend (e.g., ADX > 25).
Sell or go short when the price is below the 14-period EMA and the ADX indicates a strong downtrend (e.g., ADX > 25).
Avoid Choppy Markets:
Avoid trading when the ADX is below a certain threshold (e.g., ADX < 25) to filter out sideways or range-bound markets.
Combining ADX and a 14-period EMA can provide traders with a balanced approach to identify both the strength and direction of a trend. However, it's essential to remember that no indicator or strategy can guarantee profits, and it's crucial to use risk management techniques and other tools to make informed trading decisions. Consider back testing this strategy on historical data and adjusting the parameters based on their trading style and risk tolerance.
Statistics • Chi Square • P-value • SignificanceThe Statistics • Chi Square • P-value • Significance publication aims to provide a tool for combining different conditions and checking whether the outcome is significant using the Chi-Square Test and P-value.
🔶 USAGE
The basic principle is to compare two or more groups and check the results of a query test, such as asking men and women whether they want to see a romantic or non-romantic movie.
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| | ROMANTIC | NON-ROMANTIC | ⬅︎ MOVIE |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| MEN | 2 | 8 | 10 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| WOMEN | 7 | 3 | 10 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
|⬆︎ SEX | 10 | 10 | 20 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
We calculate the Chi-Square Formula, which is:
Χ² = Σ ( (Observed Value − Expected Value)² / Expected Value )
In this publication, this is:
chiSquare = 0.
for i = 0 to rows -1
for j = 0 to colums -1
observedValue = aBin.get(i).aFloat.get(j)
expectedValue = math.max(1e-12, aBin.get(i).aFloat.get(colums) * aBin.get(rows).aFloat.get(j) / sumT) //Division by 0 protection
chiSquare += math.pow(observedValue - expectedValue, 2) / expectedValue
Together with the 'Degree of Freedom', which is (rows − 1) × (columns − 1) , the P-value can be calculated.
In this case it is P-value: 0.02462
A P-value lower than 0.05 is considered to be significant. Statistically, women tend to choose a romantic movie more, while men prefer a non-romantic one.
Users have the option to choose a P-value, calculated from a standard table or through a math.ucla.edu - Javascript-based function (see references below).
Note that the population (10 men + 10 women = 20) is small, something to consider.
Either way, this principle is applied in the script, where conditions can be chosen like rsi, close, high, ...
🔹 CONDITION
Conditions are added to the left column ('CONDITION')
For example, previous rsi values (rsi ) between 0-100, divided in separate groups
🔹 CLOSE
Then, the movement of the last close is evaluated
UP when close is higher then previous close (close )
DOWN when close is lower then previous close
EQUAL when close is equal then previous close
It is also possible to use only 2 columns by adding EQUAL to UP or DOWN
UP
DOWN/EQUAL
or
UP/EQUAL
DOWN
In other words, when previous rsi value was between 80 and 90, this resulted in:
19 times a current close higher than previous close
14 times a current close lower than previous close
0 times a current close equal than previous close
However, the P-value tells us it is not statistical significant.
NOTE: Always keep in mind that past behaviour gives no certainty about future behaviour.
A vertical line is drawn at the beginning of the chosen population (max 4990)
Here, the results seem significant.
🔹 GROUPS
It is important to ensure that the groups are formed correctly. All possibilities should be present, and conditions should only be part of 1 group.
In the example above, the two top situations are acceptable; close against close can only be higher, lower or equal.
The two examples at the bottom, however, are very poorly constructed.
Several conditions can be placed in more than 1 group, and some conditions are not integrated into a group. Even if the results are significant, they are useless because of the group formation.
A population count is added as an aid to spot errors in group formation.
In this example, there is a discrepancy between the population and total count due to the absence of a condition.
The results when rsi was between 5-25 are not included, resulting in unreliable results.
🔹 PRACTICAL EXAMPLES
In this example, we have specific groups where the condition only applies to that group.
For example, the condition rsi > 55 and rsi <= 65 isn't true in another group.
Also, every possible rsi value (0 - 100) is present in 1 of the groups.
rsi > 15 and rsi <= 25 28 times UP, 19 times DOWN and 2 times EQUAL. P-value: 0.01171
When looking in detail and examining the area 15-25 RSI, we see this:
The population is now not representative (only checking for RSI between 15-25; all other RSI values are not included), so we can ignore the P-value in this case. It is merely to check in detail. In this case, the RSI values 23 and 24 seem promising.
NOTE: We should check what the close price did without any condition.
If, for example, the close price had risen 100 times out of 100, this would make things very relative.
In this case (at least two conditions need to be present), we set 1 condition at 'always true' and another at 'always false' so we'll get only the close values without any condition:
Changing the population or the conditions will change the P-value.
In the following example, the outcome is evaluated when:
close value from 1 bar back is higher than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is lower/equal than the close value from 2 bars back
Or:
close value from 1 bar back is higher than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is equal than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is lower than the close value from 2 bars back
In both examples, all possibilities of close against close are included in the calculations. close can only by higher, equal or lower than close
Both examples have the results without a condition included (5 = 5 and 5 < 5) so one can compare the direction of current close.
🔶 NOTES
• Always keep in mind that:
Past behaviour gives no certainty about future behaviour.
Everything depends on time, cycles, events, fundamentals, technicals, ...
• This test only works for categorical data (data in categories), such as Gender {Men, Women} or color {Red, Yellow, Green, Blue} etc., but not numerical data such as height or weight. One might argue that such tests shouldn't use rsi, close, ... values.
• Consider what you're measuring
For example rsi of the current bar will always lead to a close higher than the previous close, since this is inherent to the rsi calculations.
• Be careful; often, there are na -values at the beginning of the series, which are not included in the calculations!
• Always keep in mind considering what the close price did without any condition
• The numbers must be large enough. Each entry must be five or more. In other words, it is vital to make the 'population' large enough.
• The code can be developed further, for example, by splitting UP, DOWN in close UP 1-2%, close UP 2-3%, close UP 3-4%, ...
• rsi can be supplemented with stochRSI, MFI, sma, ema, ...
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Population
• Choose the population size; in other words, how many bars you want to go back to. If fewer bars are available than set, this will be automatically adjusted.
🔹 Inputs
At least two conditions need to be chosen.
• Users can add up to 11 conditions, where each condition can contain two different conditions.
🔹 RSI
• Length
🔹 Levels
• Set the used levels as desired.
🔹 Levels
• P-value: P-value retrieved using a standard table method or a function.
• Used function, derived from Chi-Square Distribution Function; JavaScript
LogGamma(Z) =>
S = 1
+ 76.18009173 / Z
- 86.50532033 / (Z+1)
+ 24.01409822 / (Z+2)
- 1.231739516 / (Z+3)
+ 0.00120858003 / (Z+4)
- 0.00000536382 / (Z+5)
(Z-.5) * math.log(Z+4.5) - (Z+4.5) + math.log(S * 2.50662827465)
Gcf(float X, A) => // Good for X > A +1
A0=0., B0=1., A1=1., B1=X, AOLD=0., N=0
while (math.abs((A1-AOLD)/A1) > .00001)
AOLD := A1
N += 1
A0 := A1+(N-A)*A0
B0 := B1+(N-A)*B0
A1 := X*A0+N*A1
B1 := X*B0+N*B1
A0 := A0/B1
B0 := B0/B1
A1 := A1/B1
B1 := 1
Prob = math.exp(A * math.log(X) - X - LogGamma(A)) * A1
1 - Prob
Gser(X, A) => // Good for X < A +1
T9 = 1. / A
G = T9
I = 1
while (T9 > G* 0.00001)
T9 := T9 * X / (A + I)
G := G + T9
I += 1
G *= math.exp(A * math.log(X) - X - LogGamma(A))
Gammacdf(x, a) =>
GI = 0.
if (x<=0)
GI := 0
else if (x
Chisqcdf = Gammacdf(Z/2, DF/2)
Chisqcdf := math.round(Chisqcdf * 100000) / 100000
pValue = 1 - Chisqcdf
🔶 REFERENCES
mathsisfun.com, Chi-Square Test
Chi-Square Distribution Function
Incomplete Session Candle - Incomplete Timeframe Candle Marker The "Incomplete Session Candle - Incomplete Timeframe Candle Marker" is an advanced tool tailored for technical analysts who understand the importance of accurate timeframes in their charting. While the indicator is not limited to the Indian market, its genesis is rooted in the nuances of trading sessions like those in India, which span 375 minutes from 9:15 AM to 3:30 PM.
Key Features:
Detects if the current timeframe is intraday (minutes or hours).
Calculates the expected duration of the candle for the chosen timeframe.
Highlights candles that don't achieve their expected session duration by placing a cross shape above the bar.
Compatible across various intraday timeframes, aiding traders in spotting discrepancies promptly.
Why We Made This: Not Just for India:
While we looked at the Indian market, this indicator works everywhere. Regular timeframes like 30 minutes, 1 hour, and 2 hours often end with incomplete candles, especially at the end of the trading day. For example:
A 30-minute timeframe makes 13 candles, but the last one is only 15 minutes long.
A 1-hour timeframe shows 7 candles, but the last one is just the last 15 minutes.
By switching to different timeframes like 25 minutes, 75 minutes, and 125 minutes, you get more complete information for better trading decisions. Learn more about this in our article: "Power of 25, 75, and 125-Minute Timeframes in the Indian Market", recognized by Trading View's Editors' Pick.
Benefits:
The indicator extends its benefits even to users without access to certain timeframes. It accommodates traders using a 1-hour timeframe (pertaining to Indian traders). By employing this indicator, traders consistently remain mindful of incomplete candles within their chosen timeframe
For those who utilize concepts like RBR, RBD, DBR, and DBD, this indicator is paramount. An incomplete candle can skew analysis, leading to potential misinterpretations of base or leg candles.
Final thoughts:
In markets like the Indian stock market, adopting such a tool is not just beneficial, but necessary. Whether you have access to unconventional timeframes or are using traditional ones, recognizing and accounting for the limitations of incomplete candles is critical & it's important to know if your candles fit the timeframe properly. This indicator gives you a better view of the market, which helps you make smarter trades.
Lastly, Thank you for your support! Your likes & comments. If you want to give any feedback then you can give in comment section.
Let's conquer the markets together!
Any Oscillator Underlay [TTF]We are proud to release a new indicator that has been a while in the making - the Any Oscillator Underlay (AOU) !
Note: There is a lot to discuss regarding this indicator, including its intent and some of how it operates, so please be sure to read this entire description before using this indicator to help ensure you understand both the intent and some limitations with this tool.
Our intent for building this indicator was to accomplish the following:
Combine all of the oscillators that we like to use into a single indicator
Take up a bit less screen space for the underlay indicators for strategies that utilize multiple oscillators
Provide a tool for newer traders to be able to leverage multiple oscillators in a single indicator
Features:
Includes 8 separate, fully-functional indicators combined into one
Ability to easily enable/disable and configure each included indicator independently
Clearly named plots to support user customization of color and styling, as well as manual creation of alerts
Ability to customize sub-indicator title position and color
Ability to customize sub-indicator divider lines style and color
Indicators that are included in this initial release:
TSI
2x RSIs (dubbed the Twin RSI )
Stochastic RSI
Stochastic
Ultimate Oscillator
Awesome Oscillator
MACD
Outback RSI (Color-coding only)
Quick note on OB/OS:
Before we get into covering each included indicator, we first need to cover a core concept for how we're defining OB and OS levels. To help illustrate this, we will use the TSI as an example.
The TSI by default has a mid-point of 0 and a range of -100 to 100. As a result, a common practice is to place lines on the -30 and +30 levels to represent OS and OB zones, respectively. Most people tend to view these levels as distance from the edges/outer bounds or as absolute levels, but we feel a more way to frame the OB/OS concept is to instead define it as distance ("offset") from the mid-line. In keeping with the -30 and +30 levels in our example, the offset in this case would be "30".
Taking this a step further, let's say we decided we wanted an offset of 25. Since the mid-point is 0, we'd then calculate the OB level as 0 + 25 (+25), and the OS level as 0 - 25 (-25).
Now that we've covered the concept of how we approach defining OB and OS levels (based on offset/distance from the mid-line), and since we did apply some transformations, rescaling, and/or repositioning to all of the indicators noted above, we are going to discuss each component indicator to detail both how it was modified from the original to fit the stacked-indicator model, as well as the various major components that the indicator contains.
TSI:
This indicator contains the following major elements:
TSI and TSI Signal Line
Color-coded fill for the TSI/TSI Signal lines
Moving Average for the TSI
TSI Histogram
Mid-line and OB/OS lines
Default TSI fill color coding:
Green : TSI is above the signal line
Red : TSI is below the signal line
Note: The TSI traditionally has a range of -100 to +100 with a mid-point of 0 (range of 200). To fit into our stacking model, we first shrunk the range to 100 (-50 to +50 - cut it in half), then repositioned it to have a mid-point of 50. Since this is the "bottom" of our indicator-stack, no additional repositioning is necessary.
Twin RSI:
This indicator contains the following major elements:
Fast RSI (useful if you want to leverage 2x RSIs as it makes it easier to see the overlaps and crosses - can be disabled if desired)
Slow RSI (primary RSI)
Color-coded fill for the Fast/Slow RSI lines (if Fast RSI is enabled and configured)
Moving Average for the Slow RSI
Mid-line and OB/OS lines
Default Twin RSI fill color coding:
Dark Red : Fast RSI below Slow RSI and Slow RSI below Slow RSI MA
Light Red : Fast RSI below Slow RSI and Slow RSI above Slow RSI MA
Dark Green : Fast RSI above Slow RSI and Slow RSI below Slow RSI MA
Light Green : Fast RSI above Slow RSI and Slow RSI above Slow RSI MA
Note: The RSI naturally has a range of 0 to 100 with a mid-point of 50, so no rescaling or transformation is done on this indicator. The only manipulation done is to properly position it in the indicator-stack based on which other indicators are also enabled.
Stochastic and Stochastic RSI:
These indicators contain the following major elements:
Configurable lengths for the RSI (for the Stochastic RSI only), K, and D values
Configurable base price source
Mid-line and OB/OS lines
Note: The Stochastic and Stochastic RSI both have a normal range of 0 to 100 with a mid-point of 50, so no rescaling or transformations are done on either of these indicators. The only manipulation done is to properly position it in the indicator-stack based on which other indicators are also enabled.
Ultimate Oscillator (UO):
This indicator contains the following major elements:
Configurable lengths for the Fast, Middle, and Slow BP/TR components
Mid-line and OB/OS lines
Moving Average for the UO
Color-coded fill for the UO/UO MA lines (if UO MA is enabled and configured)
Default UO fill color coding:
Green : UO is above the moving average line
Red : UO is below the moving average line
Note: The UO naturally has a range of 0 to 100 with a mid-point of 50, so no rescaling or transformation is done on this indicator. The only manipulation done is to properly position it in the indicator-stack based on which other indicators are also enabled.
Awesome Oscillator (AO):
This indicator contains the following major elements:
Configurable lengths for the Fast and Slow moving averages used in the AO calculation
Configurable price source for the moving averages used in the AO calculation
Mid-line
Option to display the AO as a line or pseudo-histogram
Moving Average for the AO
Color-coded fill for the AO/AO MA lines (if AO MA is enabled and configured)
Default AO fill color coding (Note: Fill was disabled in the image above to improve clarity):
Green : AO is above the moving average line
Red : AO is below the moving average line
Note: The AO is technically has an infinite (unbound) range - -∞ to ∞ - and the effective range is bound to the underlying security price (e.g. BTC will have a wider range than SP500, and SP500 will have a wider range than EUR/USD). We employed some special techniques to rescale this indicator into our desired range of 100 (-50 to 50), and then repositioned it to have a midpoint of 50 (range of 0 to 100) to meet the constraints of our stacking model. We then do one final repositioning to place it in the correct position the indicator-stack based on which other indicators are also enabled. For more details on how we accomplished this, read our section "Binding Infinity" below.
MACD:
This indicator contains the following major elements:
Configurable lengths for the Fast and Slow moving averages used in the MACD calculation
Configurable price source for the moving averages used in the MACD calculation
Configurable length and calculation method for the MACD Signal Line calculation
Mid-line
Note: Like the AO, the MACD also technically has an infinite (unbound) range. We employed the same principles here as we did with the AO to rescale and reposition this indicator as well. For more details on how we accomplished this, read our section "Binding Infinity" below.
Outback RSI (ORSI):
This is a stripped-down version of the Outback RSI indicator (linked above) that only includes the color-coding background (suffice it to say that it was not technically feasible to attempt to rescale the other components in a way that could consistently be clearly seen on-chart). As this component is a bit of a niche/special-purpose sub-indicator, it is disabled by default, and we suggest it remain disabled unless you have some pre-defined strategy that leverages the color-coding element of the Outback RSI that you wish to use.
Binding Infinity - How We Incorporated the AO and MACD (Warning - Math Talk Ahead!)
Note: This applies only to the AO and MACD at time of original publication. If any other indicators are added in the future that also fall into the category of "binding an infinite-range oscillator", we will make that clear in the release notes when that new addition is published.
To help set the stage for this discussion, it's important to note that the broader challenge of "equalizing inputs" is nothing new. In fact, it's a key element in many of the most popular fields of data science, such as AI and Machine Learning. They need to take a diverse set of inputs with a wide variety of ranges and seemingly-random inputs (referred to as "features"), and build a mathematical or computational model in order to work. But, when the raw inputs can vary significantly from one another, there is an inherent need to do some pre-processing to those inputs so that one doesn't overwhelm another simply due to the difference in raw values between them. This is where feature scaling comes into play.
With this in mind, we implemented 2 of the most common methods of Feature Scaling - Min-Max Normalization (which we call "Normalization" in our settings), and Z-Score Normalization (which we call "Standardization" in our settings). Let's take a look at each of those methods as they have been implemented in this script.
Min-Max Normalization (Normalization)
This is one of the most common - and most basic - methods of feature scaling. The basic formula is: y = (x - min)/(max - min) - where x is the current data sample, min is the lowest value in the dataset, and max is the highest value in the dataset. In this transformation, the max would evaluate to 1, and the min would evaluate to 0, and any value in between the min and the max would evaluate somewhere between 0 and 1.
The key benefits of this method are:
It can be used to transform datasets of any range into a new dataset with a consistent and known range (0 to 1).
It has no dependency on the "shape" of the raw input dataset (i.e. does not assume the input dataset can be approximated to a normal distribution).
But there are a couple of "gotchas" with this technique...
First, it assumes the input dataset is complete, or an accurate representation of the population via random sampling. While in most situations this is a valid assumption, in trading indicators we don't really have that luxury as we're often limited in what sample data we can access (i.e. number of historical bars available).
Second, this method is highly sensitive to outliers. Since the crux of this transformation is based on the max-min to define the initial range, a single significant outlier can result in skewing the post-transformation dataset (i.e. major price movement as a reaction to a significant news event).
You can potentially mitigate those 2 "gotchas" by using a mechanism or technique to find and discard outliers (e.g. calculate the mean and standard deviation of the input dataset and discard any raw values more than 5 standard deviations from the mean), but if your most recent datapoint is an "outlier" as defined by that algorithm, processing it using the "scrubbed" dataset would result in that new datapoint being outside the intended range of 0 to 1 (e.g. if the new datapoint is greater than the "scrubbed" max, it's post-transformation value would be greater than 1). Even though this is a bit of an edge-case scenario, it is still sure to happen in live markets processing live data, so it's not an ideal solution in our opinion (which is why we chose not to attempt to discard outliers in this manner).
Z-Score Normalization (Standardization)
This method of rescaling is a bit more complex than the Min-Max Normalization method noted above, but it is also a widely used process. The basic formula is: y = (x – μ) / σ - where x is the current data sample, μ is the mean (average) of the input dataset, and σ is the standard deviation of the input dataset. While this transformation still results in a technically-infinite possible range, the output of this transformation has a 2 very significant properties - the mean (average) of the output dataset has a mean (μ) of 0 and a standard deviation (σ) of 1.
The key benefits of this method are:
As it's based on normalizing the mean and standard deviation of the input dataset instead of a linear range conversion, it is far less susceptible to outliers significantly affecting the result (and in fact has the effect of "squishing" outliers).
It can be used to accurately transform disparate sets of data into a similar range regardless of the original dataset's raw/actual range.
But there are a couple of "gotchas" with this technique as well...
First, it still technically does not do any form of range-binding, so it is still technically unbounded (range -∞ to ∞ with a mid-point of 0).
Second, it implicitly assumes that the raw input dataset to be transformed is normally distributed, which won't always be the case in financial markets.
The first "gotcha" is a bit of an annoyance, but isn't a huge issue as we can apply principles of normal distribution to conceptually limit the range by defining a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean. While this doesn't totally solve the "infinite range" problem (a strong enough sudden move can still break out of our "conceptual range" boundaries), the amount of movement needed to achieve that kind of impact will generally be pretty rare.
The bigger challenge is how to deal with the assumption of the input dataset being normally distributed. While most financial markets (and indicators) do tend towards a normal distribution, they are almost never going to match that distribution exactly. So let's dig a bit deeper into distributions are defined and how things like trending markets can affect them.
Skew (skewness): This is a measure of asymmetry of the bell curve, or put another way, how and in what way the bell curve is disfigured when comparing the 2 halves. The easiest way to visualize this is to draw an imaginary vertical line through the apex of the bell curve, then fold the curve in half along that line. If both halves are exactly the same, the skew is 0 (no skew/perfectly symmetrical) - which is what a normal distribution has (skew = 0). Most financial markets tend to have short, medium, and long-term trends, and these trends will cause the distribution curve to skew in one direction or another. Bullish markets tend to skew to the right (positive), and bearish markets to the left (negative).
Kurtosis: This is a measure of the "tail size" of the bell curve. Another way to state this could be how "flat" or "steep" the bell-shape is. If the bell is steep with a strong drop from the apex (like a steep cliff), it has low kurtosis. If the bell has a shallow, more sweeping drop from the apex (like a tall hill), is has high kurtosis. Translating this to financial markets, kurtosis is generally a metric of volatility as the bell shape is largely defined by the strength and frequency of outliers. This is effectively a measure of volatility - volatile markets tend to have a high level of kurtosis (>3), and stable/consolidating markets tend to have a low level of kurtosis (<3). A normal distribution (our reference), has a kurtosis value of 3.
So to try and bring all that back together, here's a quick recap of the Standardization rescaling method:
The Standardization method has an assumption of a normal distribution of input data by using the mean (average) and standard deviation to handle the transformation
Most financial markets do NOT have a normal distribution (as discussed above), and will have varying degrees of skew and kurtosis
Q: Why are we still favoring the Standardization method over the Normalization method, and how are we accounting for the innate skew and/or kurtosis inherent in most financial markets?
A: Well, since we're only trying to rescale oscillators that by-definition have a midpoint of 0, kurtosis isn't a major concern beyond the affect it has on the post-transformation scaling (specifically, the number of standard deviations from the mean we need to include in our "artificially-bound" range definition).
Q: So that answers the question about kurtosis, but what about skew?
A: So - for skew, the answer is in the formula - specifically the mean (average) element. The standard mean calculation assumes a complete dataset and therefore uses a standard (i.e. simple) average, but we're limited by the data history available to us. So we adapted the transformation formula to leverage a moving average that included a weighting element to it so that it favored recent datapoints more heavily than older ones. By making the average component more adaptive, we gained the effect of reducing the skew element by having the average itself be more responsive to recent movements, which significantly reduces the effect historical outliers have on the dataset as a whole. While this is certainly not a perfect solution, we've found that it serves the purpose of rescaling the MACD and AO to a far more well-defined range while still preserving the oscillator behavior and mid-line exceptionally well.
The most difficult parts to compensate for are periods where markets have low volatility for an extended period of time - to the point where the oscillators are hovering around the 0/midline (in the case of the AO), or when the oscillator and signal lines converge and remain close to each other (in the case of the MACD). It's during these periods where even our best attempt at ensuring accurate mirrored-behavior when compared to the original can still occasionally lead or lag by a candle.
Note: If this is a make-or-break situation for you or your strategy, then we recommend you do not use any of the included indicators that leverage this kind of bounding technique (the AO and MACD at time of publication) and instead use the Trandingview built-in versions!
We know this is a lot to read and digest, so please take your time and feel free to ask questions - we will do our best to answer! And as always, constructive feedback is always welcome!
SUPERTREND MIXED ICHI-DMI-DONCHIAN-VOL-GAP-HLBox@RLSUPERTREND MIXED ICHI-DMI-VOL-GAP-HLBox@RL
by RegisL76
This script is based on several trend indicators.
* ICHIMOKU (KINKO HYO)
* DMI (Directional Movement Index)
* SUPERTREND ICHIMOKU + SUPERTREND DMI
* DONCHIAN CANAL Optimized with Colored Bars
* HMA Hull
* Fair Value GAP
* VOLUME/ MA Volume
* PRICE / MA Price
* HHLL BOXES
All these indications are visible simultaneously on a single graph. A data table summarizes all the important information to make a good trade decision.
ICHIMOKU Indicator:
The ICHIMOKU indicator is visualized in the traditional way.
ICHIMOKU standard setting values are respected but modifiable. (Traditional defaults = .
An oriented visual symbol, near the last value, indicates the progression (Ascending, Descending or neutral) of the TENKAN-SEN and the KIJUN-SEN as well as the period used.
The CLOUD (KUMO) and the CHIKOU-SPAN are present and are essential for the complete analysis of the ICHIMOKU.
At the top of the graph are visually represented the crossings of the TENKAN and the KIJUN.
Vertical lines, accompanied by labels, make it possible to quickly visualize the particularities of the ICHIMOKU.
A line displays the current bar.
A line visualizes the end of the CLOUD (KUMO) which is shifted 25 bars into the future.
A line visualizes the end of the chikou-span, which is shifted 25 bars in the past.
DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDEX (DMI) : Treated conventionally : DI+, DI-, ADX and associated with a SUPERTREND DMI.
A visual symbol at the bottom of the graph indicates DI+ and DI- crossings
A line of oriented and colored symbols (DMI Line) at the top of the chart indicates the direction and strength of the trend.
SUPERTREND ICHIMOKU + SUPERTREND DMI :
Trend following by SUPERTREND calculation.
DONCHIAN CHANNEL: Treated conventionally. (And optimized by colored bars when overshooting either up or down.
The lines, high and low of the last values of the channel are represented to quickly visualize the level of the RANGE.
SUPERTREND HMA (HULL) Treated conventionally.
The HMA line visually indicates, according to color and direction, the market trend.
A visual symbol at the bottom of the chart indicates opportunities to sell and buy.
VOLUME:
Calculation of the MOBILE AVERAGE of the volume with comparison of the volume compared to the moving average of the volume.
The indications are colored and commented according to the comparison.
PRICE: Calculation of the MOBILE AVERAGE of the price with comparison of the price compared to the moving average of the price.
The indications are colored and commented according to the comparison.
HHLL BOXES:
Visualizes in the form of a box, for a given period, the max high and min low values of the price.
The configuration allows taking into account the high and low wicks of the price or the opening and closing values.
FAIR VALUE GAP :
This indicator displays 'GAP' levels over the current time period and an optional higher time period.
The script takes into account the high/low values of the current bar and compares with the 2 previous bars.
The "gap" is generated from the lack of overlap between these bars. Bearish or bullish gaps are determined by whether the gap is above or below HmaPrice, as they tend to fill, and can be used as targets.
NOTE: FAIR VALUE GAP has no values displayed in the table and/or label.
Important information (DATA) relating to each indicator is displayed in real time in a table and/or a label.
Each information is commented and colored according to direction, value, comparison etc.
Each piece of information indicates the values of the current bar and the previous value (in "FULL" mode).
The other possible modes for viewing the table and/or the label allow a more synthetic view of the information ("CONDENSED" and "MINIMAL" modes).
In order not to overload the vision of the chart too much, the visualization box of the RANGE DONCHIAN, the vertical lines of the shifted marks of the ICHIMOKU, as well as the boxes of the HHLL Boxes indicator are only visualized intermittently (managed by an adjustable time delay ).
The "HISTORICAL INFO READING" configuration parameter set to zero (by default) makes it possible to read all the information of the current bar in progress (Bar #0). All other values allow to read the information of a historical bar. The value 1 reads the information of the bar preceding the current bar (-1). The value 10 makes it possible to read the information of the tenth bar behind (-10) compared to the current bar, etc.
At the bottom of the DATAS table and label, lights, red, green or white indicate quickly summarize the trend from the various indicators.
Each light represents the number of indicators with the same trend at a given time.
Green for a bullish trend, red for a bearish trend and white for a neutral trend.
The conditions for determining a trend are for each indicator:
SUPERTREND ICHIMOHU + DMI: the 2 Super trends together are either bullish or bearish.
Otherwise the signal is neutral.
DMI: 2 main conditions:
BULLISH if DI+ >= DI- and ADX >25.
BEARISH if DI+ < DI- and ADX >25.
NEUTRAL if the 2 conditions are not met.
ICHIMOKU: 3 main conditions:
BULLISH if PRICE above the cloud and TENKAN > KIJUN and GREEN CLOUD AHEAD.
BEARISH if PRICE below the cloud and TENKAN < KIJUN and RED CLOUD AHEAD.
The other additional conditions (Data) complete the analysis and are present for informational purposes of the trend and depend on the context.
DONCHIAN CHANNEL: 1 main condition:
BULLISH: the price has crossed above the HIGH DC line.
BEARISH: the price has gone below the LOW DC line.
NEUTRAL if the price is between the HIGH DC and LOW DC lines
The 2 other complementary conditions (Datas) complete the analysis:
HIGH DC and LOW DC are increasing, falling or stable.
SUPERTREND HMA HULL: The script determines several trend levels:
STRONG BUY, BUY, STRONG SELL, SELL AND NEUTRAL.
VOLUME: 3 trend levels:
VOLUME > MOVING AVERAGE,
VOLUME < MOVING AVERAGE,
VOLUME = MOVING AVERAGE.
PRICE: 3 trend levels:
PRICE > MOVING AVERAGE,
PRICE < MOVING AVERAGE,
PRICE = MOVING AVERAGE.
If you are using this indicator/strategy and you are satisfied with the results, you can possibly make a donation (a coffee, a pizza or more...) via paypal to: lebourg.regis@free.fr.
Thanks in advance !!!
Have good winning Trades.
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SUPERTREND MIXED ICHI-DMI-VOL-GAP-HLBox@RL
by RegisL76
Ce script est basé sur plusieurs indicateurs de tendance.
* ICHIMOKU (KINKO HYO)
* DMI (Directional Movement Index)
* SUPERTREND ICHIMOKU + SUPERTREND DMI
* DONCHIAN CANAL Optimized with Colored Bars
* HMA Hull
* Fair Value GAP
* VOLUME/ MA Volume
* PRIX / MA Prix
* HHLL BOXES
Toutes ces indications sont visibles simultanément sur un seul et même graphique.
Un tableau de données récapitule toutes les informations importantes pour prendre une bonne décision de Trade.
I- Indicateur ICHIMOKU :
L’indicateur ICHIMOKU est visualisé de manière traditionnelle
Les valeurs de réglage standard ICHIMOKU sont respectées mais modifiables. (Valeurs traditionnelles par défaut =
Un symbole visuel orienté, à proximité de la dernière valeur, indique la progression (Montant, Descendant ou neutre) de la TENKAN-SEN et de la KIJUN-SEN ainsi que la période utilisée.
Le NUAGE (KUMO) et la CHIKOU-SPAN sont bien présents et sont primordiaux pour l'analyse complète de l'ICHIMOKU.
En haut du graphique sont représentés visuellement les croisements de la TENKAN et de la KIJUN.
Des lignes verticales, accompagnées d'étiquettes, permettent de visualiser rapidement les particularités de l'ICHIMOKU.
Une ligne visualise la barre en cours.
Une ligne visualise l'extrémité du NUAGE (KUMO) qui est décalé de 25 barres dans le futur.
Une ligne visualise l'extrémité de la chikou-span, qui est décalée de 25 barres dans le passé.
II-DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDEX (DMI)
Traité de manière conventionnelle : DI+, DI-, ADX et associé à un SUPERTREND DMI
Un symbole visuel en bas du graphique indique les croisements DI+ et DI-
Une ligne de symboles orientés et colorés (DMI Line) en haut du graphique, indique la direction et la puissance de la tendance.
III SUPERTREND ICHIMOKU + SUPERTREND DMI
Suivi de tendance par calcul SUPERTREND
IV- DONCHIAN CANAL :
Traité de manière conventionnelle.
(Et optimisé par des barres colorées en cas de dépassement soit vers le haut, soit vers le bas.
Les lignes, haute et basse des dernières valeurs du canal sont représentées pour visualiser rapidement la fourchette du RANGE.
V- SUPERTREND HMA (HULL)
Traité de manière conventionnelle.
La ligne HMA indique visuellement, selon la couleur et l'orientation, la tendance du marché.
Un symbole visuel en bas du graphique indique les opportunités de vente et d'achat.
*VI VOLUME :
Calcul de la MOYENNE MOBILE du volume avec comparaison du volume par rapport à la moyenne mobile du volume.
Les indications sont colorées et commentées en fonction de la comparaison.
*VII PRIX :
Calcul de la MOYENNE MOBILE du prix avec comparaison du prix par rapport à la moyenne mobile du prix.
Les indications sont colorées et commentées en fonction de la comparaison.
*VIII HHLL BOXES :
Visualise sous forme de boite, pour une période donnée, les valeurs max hautes et min basses du prix.
La configuration permet de prendre en compte les mèches hautes et basses du prix ou bien les valeurs d'ouverture et de fermeture.
IX - FAIR VALUE GAP
Cet indicateur affiche les niveaux de 'GAP' sur la période temporelle actuelle ET une période temporelle facultative supérieure.
Le script prend en compte les valeurs haut/bas de la barre actuelle et compare avec les 2 barres précédentes.
Le "gap" est généré à partir du manque de recouvrement entre ces barres.
Les écarts baissiers ou haussiers sont déterminés selon que l'écart est supérieurs ou inférieur à HmaPrice, car ils ont tendance à être comblés, et peuvent être utilisés comme cibles.
NOTA : FAIR VALUE GAP n'a pas de valeurs affichées dans la table et/ou l'étiquette.
Les informations importantes (DATAS) relatives à chaque indicateur sont visualisées en temps réel dans une table et/ou une étiquette.
Chaque information est commentée et colorée en fonction de la direction, de la valeur, de la comparaison etc.
Chaque information indique la valeurs de la barre en cours et la valeur précédente ( en mode "COMPLET").
Les autres modes possibles pour visualiser la table et/ou l'étiquette, permettent une vue plus synthétique des informations (modes "CONDENSÉ" et "MINIMAL").
Afin de ne pas trop surcharger la vision du graphique, la boite de visualisation du RANGE DONCHIAN, les lignes verticales des marques décalées de l'ICHIMOKU, ainsi que les boites de l'indicateur HHLL Boxes ne sont visualisées que de manière intermittente (géré par une temporisation réglable ).
Le paramètre de configuration "HISTORICAL INFO READING" réglé sur zéro (par défaut) permet de lire toutes les informations de la barre actuelle en cours (Barre #0).
Toutes autres valeurs permet de lire les informations d'une barre historique. La valeur 1 permet de lire les informations de la barre précédant la barre en cours (-1).
La valeur 10 permet de lire les information de la dixième barre en arrière (-10) par rapport à la barre en cours, etc.
Dans le bas de la table et de l'étiquette de DATAS, des voyants, rouge, vert ou blanc indique de manière rapide la synthèse de la tendance issue des différents indicateurs.
Chaque voyant représente le nombre d'indicateur ayant la même tendance à un instant donné. Vert pour une tendance Bullish, rouge pour une tendance Bearish et blanc pour une tendance neutre.
Les conditions pour déterminer une tendance sont pour chaque indicateur :
SUPERTREND ICHIMOHU + DMI : les 2 Super trends sont ensemble soit bullish soit Bearish. Sinon le signal est neutre.
DMI : 2 conditions principales :
BULLISH si DI+ >= DI- et ADX >25.
BEARISH si DI+ < DI- et ADX >25.
NEUTRE si les 2 conditions ne sont pas remplies.
ICHIMOKU : 3 conditions principales :
BULLISH si PRIX au dessus du nuage et TENKAN > KIJUN et NUAGE VERT DEVANT.
BEARISH si PRIX en dessous du nuage et TENKAN < KIJUN et NUAGE ROUGE DEVANT.
Les autres conditions complémentaires (Datas) complètent l'analyse et sont présents à titre informatif de la tendance et dépendent du contexte.
CANAL DONCHIAN : 1 condition principale :
BULLISH : le prix est passé au dessus de la ligne HIGH DC.
BEARISH : le prix est passé au dessous de la ligne LOW DC.
NEUTRE si le prix se situe entre les lignes HIGH DC et LOW DC
Les 2 autres conditions complémentaires (Datas) complètent l'analyse : HIGH DC et LOW DC sont croissants, descendants ou stables.
SUPERTREND HMA HULL :
Le script détermine plusieurs niveaux de tendance :
STRONG BUY, BUY, STRONG SELL, SELL ET NEUTRE.
VOLUME : 3 niveaux de tendance :
VOLUME > MOYENNE MOBILE, VOLUME < MOYENNE MOBILE, VOLUME = MOYENNE MOBILE.
PRIX : 3 niveaux de tendance :
PRIX > MOYENNE MOBILE, PRIX < MOYENNE MOBILE, PRIX = MOYENNE MOBILE.
Si vous utilisez cet indicateur/ stratégie et que vous êtes satisfait des résultats,
vous pouvez éventuellement me faire un don (un café, une pizza ou plus ...) via paypal à : lebourg.regis@free.fr.
Merci d'avance !!!
Ayez de bons Trades gagnants.
StableF-MainIt is combination of Built in Super trend and Adx with take profit
uptrend is considered when +dmi is above -dmi and +dmi is above 25 and adx is above 25 and supertrend gives Buy
downtrend is considered when -dmi is above +dmi and -dmi is above 25 and adx is above 25 and supertrend give sell
use fibo for target by taking as previous swing high and swing low
-supertrend crossover is referred as buy plotshape
-supertrend cross under is referred as Sell plotshape
-keep stoploss at dot line of supertrend
-adx-dmi crossover (+dmi crossed above -dmi) is shown by Triangle Up symbol
-adx-dmi crossunder( -dmi crosses below +dmi) is shown by Triangle down symbol
--Cross symbol with blue line with linewidth 2 is referred as Take profit
--combine this with adx -dmi setting with 7 and 14
----disclaimer-----
used free built in supertrend and adx so u can use same setting in other broker or in trading view
not responsible for any loss or gain
-only for educational purpose
Market Traffic Light (redesigned)redesigned the market traffic light from funcharts, all honor to him, I just put a new design ;-) and some bugfixes
1. Section (Fear & Greed)
Approximation of the CNN Money Fear & Greed index based on code of user MagicEins. The index shows values between 0 (extreme fear, red) and 100 (extreme greed, green).
2. Section (warning signs)
VIX: Values above 20 are red and below green. The legend shows the value of the current bar including the change from the bar before. The average VIX is about 16. Values over 20 are a sign of stressed market.
Distribution days: A distribution day (loss to the day before > 0,2 % and higher volume ) is marked with a yellow dot. In case there are more than four distributions days within 25 markets days the dot is orange. When big players redistribute their investments distribution days can occur. If this is done often (more than four times within 25 market days) it is possible that the markets changes or that a sector rotation occurs. For calculation distribution days futures of S&P 500 ( ES1! ) and NASDAQ ( NQ1! ) are used because the volume for this calculation is needed. TradingView does not support volumes for S&P 500 or NASDAQ directly.
Markets: A green/red dot signals that the market is above/below its 25-Daily-EMA. A green/red square signals that the market is above/below its 25-Weekly-EMA. Markets can give as a feeling about where investors store their money. E.g. when markets are falling but DUX (Down Jones Utility Average) is rising this means that investors put their money into save haven. This can be a sign that the markets will fall more.
3. Section (panic signs, = signs of reaching a low within a correction of a crash)
VIX-Reversion: A VIX reversion day ( VIX > 20 & VIX high > VIX high of the day before & VIX high – VIX close > 3) is marked as a yellow dot
VVIX: A value equal or above 140 is marked with a yellow dot and shows absolute panic.
PCR Intra max: A value equal or above 1.4 is marked with a yellow dot.
New high/lows: New highs/lows are shown for AMEX, NYSE and NASDAQ. A yellow dot is shown if the ratio is less or equal than 0. 01 .
Down-Day: Down days are shown for AMEX, NYSE and NASDA. A yellow dot is shown if at least 90 % of the whole volume (up and down) is a down volume .
In Addition to the warning signs in the second section a check of the Advance Decline Line (NYSE and NASDAQ) for bullish and bearish divergences is useful. The whole set-up can be seen in the screenshot.
Only one signal normally does not give us a good prediction. Therefore we need to see these indication as a bundle. TradingView gives us the opportunity to check some striking market situations in the past. So feel free to test this indication for building up your own opinion.
Please feel free to comment in case of failures, improvements or experiences (good or bad).
ADX / RSI Strategy by Trade Rush (created by SirPoggy) This is one of many new strategies coming soon which were seen on Trade Rush
This one is the ADX / RSI Strategy seen here:
https:www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSkGE0ujyn4
While the strategy has been modified slightly to use the DMI instead of the ADX, the core of the strategy is essentially the same
Long signals are generated when the RSI is above 70, close is above the 200EMA, and the ADX is above 25 (added is the plus DMI over 25 and minus DMI below 20)
Stop loss is placed below /above the 21 EMA, however, there is a deviation required to ensure price is not too close to where a stop loss would be placed.
Short signals are generated when the RSI is below 30, close is below the 200EMA, and the ADX is above 25 (added is the minus DMI over 25 and plus DMI below 20)
I do not recommend using this strategy but I have provided this code for educational purposes.
Thanks!
Let me know which strategy you'd like coded next in the comments below.
[kai]Futility RatioAn indicator that measures movement inefficiency
Inefficient movement, that is, the range market becomes a high number, the limit is reached at about 60 and a trend occurs
When the range breaks and a trend occurs, the inefficiency drops to about 40 and many trends end.
The full-scale trend goes down further and goes down to about 25, which is evaluated as an efficient movement, the limit is reached and the trend ends.
As for how to use this Inge, the direction of the trend needs to be considered in other ways.
Create a position when you reach 60
Position closed or contrarian at 40 or 25
I assume the usage
動きの非効率性を測定するインジケーターです
非効率な動きをするつまりレンジ相場は高い数字になって、60程度で限界が訪れてトレンドが発生します
レンジがブレイクしトレンドが発生すると40程度まで非効率性は下がりって多くのトレンドは終了します
本格的なトレンドはさらに下がっていって効率的な動きと評価される25程度まで下がって限界が訪れてトレンドが終了します
このインジの使い方はトレンドの方向は他の方法で考える必要がありますが
60まで上がったときにポジション作成
40又は25でポジションクローズ又は逆張り
という使い方を想定しています
Market Traffic LightThis indicator visualizes warning and panic signs, which are shown separately.
1. Section (Fear & Greed)
Approximation of the CNN Money Fear & Greed index based on code of user MagicEins. The index shows values between 0 (extreme fear, red) and 100 (extreme greed, green).
2. Section (warning signs)
VIX: Values above 20 are red and below green. The legend shows the value of the current bar including the change from the bar before. The average VIX is about 16. Values over 20 are a sign of stressed market.
Distribution days: A distribution day (loss to the day before > 0,2 % and higher volume) is marked with a yellow dot. In case there are more than four distributions days within 25 markets days the dot is orange. When big players redistribute their investments distribution days can occur. If this is done often (more than four times within 25 market days) it is possible that the markets changes or that a sector rotation occurs. For calculation distribution days futures of S&P 500 (ES1!) and NASDAQ (NQ1!) are used because the volume for this calculation is needed. TradingView does not support volumes for S&P 500 or NASDAQ directly.
Markets: A green/red dot signals that the market is above/below its 25-Daily-EMA. A green/red square signals that the market is above/below its 25-Weekly-EMA. Markets can give as a feeling about where investors store their money. E.g. when markets are falling but DUX (Down Jones Utility Average) is rising this means that investors put their money into save haven. This can be a sign that the markets will fall more.
3. Section (panic signs, = signs of reaching a low within a correction of a crash)
VIX-Reversion: A VIX reversion day (VIX > 20 & VIX high > VIX high of the day before & VIX high – VIX close > 3) is marked as a yellow dot
VVIX: A value equal or above 140 is marked with a yellow dot and shows absolute panic.
PCR Intra max: A value equal or above 1.4 is marked with a yellow dot.
New high/lows: New highs/lows are shown for AMEX, NYSE and NASDAQ. A yellow dot is shown if the ratio is less or equal than 0.01.
Down-Day: Down days are shown for AMEX, NYSE and NASDA. A yellow dot is shown if at least 90 % of the whole volume (up and down) is a down volume.
In Addition to the warning signs in the second section a check of the Advance Decline Line (NYSE and NASDAQ) for bullish and bearish divergences is useful. The whole set-up can be seen in the screenshot.
Only one signal normally does not give us a good prediction. Therefore we need to see these indication as a bundle. TradingView gives us the opportunity to check some striking market situations in the past. So feel free to test this indication for building up your own opinion.
Please feel free to comment in case of failures, improvements or experiences (good or bad).
TwistedHWAY Oracle - Intelligent Level Detection System═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🎯 TwistedHWAY Oracle™ - Intelligent Level Detection System
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
OVERVIEW
TwistedHWAY Oracle™ combines six independent calculation engines to identify high-probability support and resistance levels. The indicator uses adaptive market regime detection and confluence analysis to automatically rank levels by confidence score, helping traders identify key reaction zones where price is likely to find support or resistance.
KEY FEATURES
The indicator provides comprehensive level detection through:
Six Detection Engines — Each engine operates independently with its own alert system
Confluence Analysis — Automatically awards bonus confidence when multiple engines identify the same level
Adaptive Intelligence — Market volatility detection adjusts parameters in real-time
Confidence Scoring — Every level is ranked and displayed with a numerical confidence score
Individual Alerts — Separate alert controls for each detection method
DETECTION ENGINES
1 — Pivot Points Engine
Calculates daily pivot levels including PP, R1-R3, and S1-S3 using previous day's high, low, and close.
2 — Swing Detector
Identifies significant swing highs and lows using prominence filtering to eliminate noise.
3 — Psychological Matrix
Detects round number levels at three configurable increments (default: 10, 25, 50).
4 — Fibonacci Engine
Calculates retracement levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) from major swings.
5 — VWAP System
Generates volume-weighted average price levels at three different periods.
6 — Confluence Analyzer
Awards bonus confidence points when multiple engines identify the same level.
HOW TO USE
Reading the Levels
Levels above current price = Resistance (red by default)
Levels below current price = Support (green by default)
Numbers in brackets show confidence score
Higher confidence = stronger level
Levels with score > 2.0 indicate extreme confluences
Trading Strategies
Bounce Trading — Enter positions when price approaches high-confidence levels expecting reversal
Breakout Trading — Trade breakouts through levels, using broken level as stop-loss
Confluence Zones — Focus on areas where multiple engines agree
SETTINGS GUIDE
Oracle Settings
Validation Mode — Conservative parameters for more reliable signals
Max Levels — Number of levels to display (10-50)
Level Extension — Line extension direction (None/Left/Right/Both)
Individual Engine Controls
Each engine can be toggled on/off with separate alert controls:
Pivot Engine (daily pivots)
Swing Detector (historical swings)
Psychological Matrix (round numbers)
Fibonacci Engine (retracements)
VWAP System (volume-weighted levels)
Visual Settings
Individual color selection for each level type
Label display toggle with size options
Line style preferences (Solid/Dashed/Dotted)
Alert Configuration
Alert Distance % — Proximity threshold (default: 0.5%)
Alert Cooldown — Minimum bars between alerts (default: 60)
Individual alert toggles for each engine
ADAPTIVE PARAMETERS
The indicator automatically adjusts to market conditions:
High Volatility Mode — Wider swing detection, stricter prominence filters
Normal Mode — Balanced parameters for typical market conditions
Validation Mode — Most conservative settings for reliable signals
Market regime is detected using 100-period volatility measurement with automatic threshold adjustment.
ALERTS
Five alert types plus special confluence alerts:
🎯 Pivot Alerts — Daily pivot level approaches
🌊 Swing Alerts — Historical swing level tests
🧠 Psychological Alerts — Round number approaches
🌀 Fibonacci Alerts — Retracement level tests
📉 VWAP Alerts — Volume-weighted level approaches
⚡ Critical Alerts — Ultra-high confidence levels (score ≥ 2.0)
Alerts include price level, confidence score, and source information.
BEST PRACTICES
Timeframe Selection
Works on all timeframes (optimized for 5min to Daily)
Higher timeframes = more reliable levels
Use multi-timeframe analysis for confirmation
Optimization by Instrument
Forex:
Psychological increments: 0.0010, 0.0050, 0.0100
Stocks (Low-priced):
Psychological increments: 1, 5, 10
Stocks (High-priced):
Psychological increments: 10, 25, 50
Crypto:
Adjust based on price range and volatility
LIMITATIONS
Calculation intensive on last bar (may cause slight delays)
Maximum 50 levels can be displayed simultaneously
Swing detection requires minimum 25 bars of history
VWAP calculations use price range as volume proxy when volume unavailable
NOTES
Levels are recalculated on each bar close
Confidence scores update dynamically with market conditions
Colors automatically adjust based on price position
All settings are saved with chart layout
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Version: 3.0 | Build 2025.10
License: GNU GPL v3.0
© 2025 TwistedHWAY
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Keltner Channel Enhanced [DCAUT]█ Keltner Channel Enhanced
📊 ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION
The Keltner Channel Enhanced represents an important advancement over standard Keltner Channel implementations by introducing dual flexibility in moving average selection for both the middle band and ATR calculation. While traditional Keltner Channels typically use EMA for the middle band and RMA (Wilder's smoothing) for ATR, this enhanced version provides access to 25+ moving average algorithms for both components, enabling traders to fine-tune the indicator's behavior to match specific market characteristics and trading approaches.
Key Advancements:
Dual MA Algorithm Flexibility: Independent selection of moving average types for middle band (25+ options) and ATR smoothing (25+ options), allowing optimization of both trend identification and volatility measurement separately
Enhanced Trend Sensitivity: Ability to use faster algorithms (HMA, T3) for middle band while maintaining stable volatility measurement with traditional ATR smoothing, or vice versa for different trading strategies
Adaptive Volatility Measurement: Choice of ATR smoothing algorithm affects channel responsiveness to volatility changes, from highly reactive (SMA, EMA) to smoothly adaptive (RMA, TEMA)
Comprehensive Alert System: Five distinct alert conditions covering breakouts, trend changes, and volatility expansion, enabling automated monitoring without constant chart observation
Multi-Timeframe Compatibility: Works effectively across all timeframes from intraday scalping to long-term position trading, with independent optimization of trend and volatility components
This implementation addresses key limitations of standard Keltner Channels: fixed EMA/RMA combination may not suit all market conditions or trading styles. By decoupling the trend component from volatility measurement and allowing independent algorithm selection, traders can create highly customized configurations for specific instruments and market phases.
📐 MATHEMATICAL FOUNDATION
Keltner Channel Enhanced uses a three-component calculation system that combines a flexible moving average middle band with ATR-based (Average True Range) upper and lower channels, creating volatility-adjusted trend-following bands.
Core Calculation Process:
1. Middle Band (Basis) Calculation:
The basis line is calculated using the selected moving average algorithm applied to the price source over the specified period:
basis = ma(source, length, maType)
Supported algorithms include EMA (standard choice, trend-biased), SMA (balanced and symmetric), HMA (reduced lag), WMA, VWMA, TEMA, T3, KAMA, and 17+ others.
2. Average True Range (ATR) Calculation:
ATR measures market volatility by calculating the average of true ranges over the specified period:
trueRange = max(high - low, abs(high - close ), abs(low - close ))
atrValue = ma(trueRange, atrLength, atrMaType)
ATR smoothing algorithm significantly affects channel behavior, with options including RMA (standard, very smooth), SMA (moderate smoothness), EMA (fast adaptation), TEMA (smooth yet responsive), and others.
3. Channel Calculation:
Upper and lower channels are positioned at specified multiples of ATR from the basis:
upperChannel = basis + (multiplier × atrValue)
lowerChannel = basis - (multiplier × atrValue)
Standard multiplier is 2.0, providing channels that dynamically adjust width based on market volatility.
Keltner Channel vs. Bollinger Bands - Key Differences:
While both indicators create volatility-based channels, they use fundamentally different volatility measures:
Keltner Channel (ATR-based):
Uses Average True Range to measure actual price movement volatility
Incorporates gaps and limit moves through true range calculation
More stable in trending markets, less prone to extreme compression
Better reflects intraday volatility and trading range
Typically fewer band touches, making touches more significant
More suitable for trend-following strategies
Bollinger Bands (Standard Deviation-based):
Uses statistical standard deviation to measure price dispersion
Based on closing prices only, doesn't account for intraday range
Can compress significantly during consolidation (squeeze patterns)
More touches in ranging markets
Better suited for mean-reversion strategies
Provides statistical probability framework (95% within 2 standard deviations)
Algorithm Combination Effects:
The interaction between middle band MA type and ATR MA type creates different indicator characteristics:
Trend-Focused Configuration (Fast MA + Slow ATR): Middle band uses HMA/EMA/T3, ATR uses RMA/TEMA, quick trend changes with stable channel width, suitable for trend-following
Volatility-Focused Configuration (Slow MA + Fast ATR): Middle band uses SMA/WMA, ATR uses EMA/SMA, stable trend with dynamic channel width, suitable for volatility trading
Balanced Configuration (Standard EMA/RMA): Classic Keltner Channel behavior, time-tested combination, suitable for general-purpose trend following
Adaptive Configuration (KAMA + KAMA): Self-adjusting indicator responding to efficiency ratio, suitable for markets with varying trend strength and volatility regimes
📊 COMPREHENSIVE SIGNAL ANALYSIS
Keltner Channel Enhanced provides multiple signal categories optimized for trend-following and breakout strategies.
Channel Position Signals:
Upper Channel Interaction:
Price Touching Upper Channel: Strong bullish momentum, price moving more than typical volatility range suggests, potential continuation signal in established uptrends
Price Breaking Above Upper Channel: Exceptional strength, price exceeding normal volatility expectations, consider adding to long positions or tightening trailing stops
Price Riding Upper Channel: Sustained strong uptrend, characteristic of powerful bull moves, stay with trend and avoid premature profit-taking
Price Rejection at Upper Channel: Momentum exhaustion signal, consider profit-taking on longs or waiting for pullback to middle band for reentry
Lower Channel Interaction:
Price Touching Lower Channel: Strong bearish momentum, price moving more than typical volatility range suggests, potential continuation signal in established downtrends
Price Breaking Below Lower Channel: Exceptional weakness, price exceeding normal volatility expectations, consider adding to short positions or protecting against further downside
Price Riding Lower Channel: Sustained strong downtrend, characteristic of powerful bear moves, stay with trend and avoid premature covering
Price Rejection at Lower Channel: Momentum exhaustion signal, consider covering shorts or waiting for bounce to middle band for reentry
Middle Band (Basis) Signals:
Trend Direction Confirmation:
Price Above Basis: Bullish trend bias, middle band acts as dynamic support in uptrends, consider long positions or holding existing longs
Price Below Basis: Bearish trend bias, middle band acts as dynamic resistance in downtrends, consider short positions or avoiding longs
Price Crossing Above Basis: Potential trend change from bearish to bullish, early signal to establish long positions
Price Crossing Below Basis: Potential trend change from bullish to bearish, early signal to establish short positions or exit longs
Pullback Trading Strategy:
Uptrend Pullback: Price pulls back from upper channel to middle band, finds support, and resumes upward, ideal long entry point
Downtrend Bounce: Price bounces from lower channel to middle band, meets resistance, and resumes downward, ideal short entry point
Basis Test: Strong trends often show price respecting the middle band as support/resistance on pullbacks
Failed Test: Price breaking through middle band against trend direction signals potential reversal
Volatility-Based Signals:
Narrow Channels (Low Volatility):
Consolidation Phase: Channels contract during periods of reduced volatility and directionless price action
Breakout Preparation: Narrow channels often precede significant directional moves as volatility cycles
Trading Approach: Reduce position sizes, wait for breakout confirmation, avoid range-bound strategies within channels
Breakout Direction: Monitor for price breaking decisively outside channel range with expanding width
Wide Channels (High Volatility):
Trending Phase: Channels expand during strong directional moves and increased volatility
Momentum Confirmation: Wide channels confirm genuine trend with substantial volatility backing
Trading Approach: Trend-following strategies excel, wider stops necessary, mean-reversion strategies risky
Exhaustion Signs: Extreme channel width (historical highs) may signal approaching consolidation or reversal
Advanced Pattern Recognition:
Channel Walking Pattern:
Upper Channel Walk: Price consistently touches or exceeds upper channel while staying above basis, very strong uptrend signal, hold longs aggressively
Lower Channel Walk: Price consistently touches or exceeds lower channel while staying below basis, very strong downtrend signal, hold shorts aggressively
Basis Support/Resistance: During channel walks, price typically uses middle band as support/resistance on minor pullbacks
Pattern Break: Price crossing basis during channel walk signals potential trend exhaustion
Squeeze and Release Pattern:
Squeeze Phase: Channels narrow significantly, price consolidates near middle band, volatility contracts
Direction Clues: Watch for price positioning relative to basis during squeeze (above = bullish bias, below = bearish bias)
Release Trigger: Price breaking outside narrow channel range with expanding width confirms breakout
Follow-Through: Measure squeeze height and project from breakout point for initial profit targets
Channel Expansion Pattern:
Breakout Confirmation: Rapid channel widening confirms volatility increase and genuine trend establishment
Entry Timing: Enter positions early in expansion phase before trend becomes overextended
Risk Management: Use channel width to size stops appropriately, wider channels require wider stops
Basis Bounce Pattern:
Clean Bounce: Price touches middle band and immediately reverses, confirms trend strength and entry opportunity
Multiple Bounces: Repeated basis bounces indicate strong, sustainable trend
Bounce Failure: Price penetrating basis signals weakening trend and potential reversal
Divergence Analysis:
Price/Channel Divergence: Price makes new high/low while staying within channel (not reaching outer band), suggests momentum weakening
Width/Price Divergence: Price breaks to new extremes but channel width contracts, suggests move lacks conviction
Reversal Signal: Divergences often precede trend reversals or significant consolidation periods
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Keltner Channels work particularly well in multi-timeframe trend-following approaches:
Three-Timeframe Alignment:
Higher Timeframe (Weekly/Daily): Identify major trend direction, note price position relative to basis and channels
Intermediate Timeframe (Daily/4H): Identify pullback opportunities within higher timeframe trend
Lower Timeframe (4H/1H): Time precise entries when price touches middle band or lower channel (in uptrends) with rejection
Optimal Entry Conditions:
Best Long Entries: Higher timeframe in uptrend (price above basis), intermediate timeframe pulls back to basis, lower timeframe shows rejection at middle band or lower channel
Best Short Entries: Higher timeframe in downtrend (price below basis), intermediate timeframe bounces to basis, lower timeframe shows rejection at middle band or upper channel
Risk Management: Use higher timeframe channel width to set position sizing, stops below/above higher timeframe channels
🎯 STRATEGIC APPLICATIONS
Keltner Channel Enhanced excels in trend-following and breakout strategies across different market conditions.
Trend Following Strategy:
Setup Requirements:
Identify established trend with price consistently on one side of basis line
Wait for pullback to middle band (basis) or brief penetration through it
Confirm trend resumption with price rejection at basis and move back toward outer channel
Enter in trend direction with stop beyond basis line
Entry Rules:
Uptrend Entry:
Price pulls back from upper channel to middle band, shows support at basis (bullish candlestick, momentum divergence)
Enter long on rejection/bounce from basis with stop 1-2 ATR below basis
Aggressive: Enter on first touch; Conservative: Wait for confirmation candle
Downtrend Entry:
Price bounces from lower channel to middle band, shows resistance at basis (bearish candlestick, momentum divergence)
Enter short on rejection/reversal from basis with stop 1-2 ATR above basis
Aggressive: Enter on first touch; Conservative: Wait for confirmation candle
Trend Management:
Trailing Stop: Use basis line as dynamic trailing stop, exit if price closes beyond basis against position
Profit Taking: Take partial profits at opposite channel, move stops to basis
Position Additions: Add to winners on subsequent basis bounces if trend intact
Breakout Strategy:
Setup Requirements:
Identify consolidation period with contracting channel width
Monitor price action near middle band with reduced volatility
Wait for decisive breakout beyond channel range with expanding width
Enter in breakout direction after confirmation
Breakout Confirmation:
Price breaks clearly outside channel (upper for longs, lower for shorts), channel width begins expanding from contracted state
Volume increases significantly on breakout (if using volume analysis)
Price sustains outside channel for multiple bars without immediate reversal
Entry Approaches:
Aggressive: Enter on initial break with stop at opposite channel or basis, use smaller position size
Conservative: Wait for pullback to broken channel level, enter on rejection and resumption, tighter stop
Volatility-Based Position Sizing:
Adjust position sizing based on channel width (ATR-based volatility):
Wide Channels (High ATR): Reduce position size as stops must be wider, calculate position size using ATR-based risk calculation: Risk / (Stop Distance in ATR × ATR Value)
Narrow Channels (Low ATR): Increase position size as stops can be tighter, be cautious of impending volatility expansion
ATR-Based Risk Management: Use ATR-based risk calculations, position size = 0.01 × Capital / (2 × ATR), use multiples of ATR (1-2 ATR) for adaptive stops
Algorithm Selection Guidelines:
Different market conditions benefit from different algorithm combinations:
Strong Trending Markets: Middle band use EMA or HMA, ATR use RMA, capture trends quickly while maintaining stable channel width
Choppy/Ranging Markets: Middle band use SMA or WMA, ATR use SMA or WMA, avoid false trend signals while identifying genuine reversals
Volatile Markets: Middle band and ATR both use KAMA or FRAMA, self-adjusting to changing market conditions reduces manual optimization
Breakout Trading: Middle band use SMA, ATR use EMA or SMA, stable trend with dynamic channels highlights volatility expansion early
Scalping/Day Trading: Middle band use HMA or T3, ATR use EMA or TEMA, both components respond quickly
Position Trading: Middle band use EMA/TEMA/T3, ATR use RMA or TEMA, filter out noise for long-term trend-following
📋 DETAILED PARAMETER CONFIGURATION
Understanding and optimizing parameters is essential for adapting Keltner Channel Enhanced to specific trading approaches.
Source Parameter:
Close (Most Common): Uses closing price, reflects daily settlement, best for end-of-day analysis and position trading, standard choice
HL2 (Median Price): Smooths out closing bias, better represents full daily range in volatile markets, good for swing trading
HLC3 (Typical Price): Gives more weight to close while including full range, popular for intraday applications, slightly more responsive than HL2
OHLC4 (Average Price): Most comprehensive price representation, smoothest option, good for gap-prone markets or highly volatile instruments
Length Parameter:
Controls the lookback period for middle band (basis) calculation:
Short Periods (10-15): Very responsive to price changes, suitable for day trading and scalping, higher false signal rate
Standard Period (20 - Default): Represents approximately one month of trading, good balance between responsiveness and stability, suitable for swing and position trading
Medium Periods (30-50): Smoother trend identification, fewer false signals, better for position trading and longer holding periods
Long Periods (50+): Very smooth, identifies major trends only, minimal false signals but significant lag, suitable for long-term investment
Optimization by Timeframe: 1-15 minute charts use 10-20 period, 30-60 minute charts use 20-30 period, 4-hour to daily charts use 20-40 period, weekly charts use 20-30 weeks.
ATR Length Parameter:
Controls the lookback period for Average True Range calculation, affecting channel width:
Short ATR Periods (5-10): Very responsive to recent volatility changes, standard is 10 (Keltner's original specification), may be too reactive in whipsaw conditions
Standard ATR Period (10 - Default): Chester Keltner's original specification, good balance between responsiveness and stability, most widely used
Medium ATR Periods (14-20): Smoother channel width, ATR 14 aligns with Wilder's original ATR specification, good for position trading
Long ATR Periods (20+): Very smooth channel width, suitable for long-term trend-following
Length vs. ATR Length Relationship: Equal values (20/20) provide balanced responsiveness, longer ATR (20/14) gives more stable channel width, shorter ATR (20/10) is standard configuration, much shorter ATR (20/5) creates very dynamic channels.
Multiplier Parameter:
Controls channel width by setting ATR multiples:
Lower Values (1.0-1.5): Tighter channels with frequent price touches, more trading signals, higher false signal rate, better for range-bound and mean-reversion strategies
Standard Value (2.0 - Default): Chester Keltner's recommended setting, good balance between signal frequency and reliability, suitable for both trending and ranging strategies
Higher Values (2.5-3.0): Wider channels with less frequent touches, fewer but potentially higher-quality signals, better for strong trending markets
Market-Specific Optimization: High volatility markets (crypto, small-caps) use 2.5-3.0 multiplier, medium volatility markets (major forex, large-caps) use 2.0 multiplier, low volatility markets (bonds, utilities) use 1.5-2.0 multiplier.
MA Type Parameter (Middle Band):
Critical selection that determines trend identification characteristics:
EMA (Exponential Moving Average - Default): Standard Keltner Channel choice, Chester Keltner's original specification, emphasizes recent prices, faster response to trend changes, suitable for all timeframes
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Equal weighting of all data points, no directional bias, slower than EMA, better for ranging markets and mean-reversion
HMA (Hull Moving Average): Minimal lag with smooth output, excellent for fast trend identification, best for day trading and scalping
TEMA (Triple Exponential Moving Average): Advanced smoothing with reduced lag, responsive to trends while filtering noise, suitable for volatile markets
T3 (Tillson T3): Very smooth with minimal lag, excellent for established trend identification, suitable for position trading
KAMA (Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average): Automatically adjusts speed based on market efficiency, slow in ranging markets, fast in trends, suitable for markets with varying conditions
ATR MA Type Parameter:
Determines how Average True Range is smoothed, affecting channel width stability:
RMA (Wilder's Smoothing - Default): J. Welles Wilder's original ATR smoothing method, very smooth, slow to adapt to volatility changes, provides stable channel width
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Equal weighting, moderate smoothness, faster response to volatility changes than RMA, more dynamic channel width
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Emphasizes recent volatility, quick adaptation to new volatility regimes, very responsive channel width changes
TEMA (Triple Exponential Moving Average): Smooth yet responsive, good balance for varying volatility, suitable for most trading styles
Parameter Combination Strategies:
Conservative Trend-Following: Length 30/ATR Length 20/Multiplier 2.5, MA Type EMA or TEMA/ATR MA Type RMA, smooth trend with stable wide channels, suitable for position trading
Standard Balanced Approach: Length 20/ATR Length 10/Multiplier 2.0, MA Type EMA/ATR MA Type RMA, classic Keltner Channel configuration, suitable for general purpose swing trading
Aggressive Day Trading: Length 10-15/ATR Length 5-7/Multiplier 1.5-2.0, MA Type HMA or EMA/ATR MA Type EMA or SMA, fast trend with dynamic channels, suitable for scalping and day trading
Breakout Specialist: Length 20-30/ATR Length 5-10/Multiplier 2.0, MA Type SMA or WMA/ATR MA Type EMA or SMA, stable trend with responsive channel width
Adaptive All-Conditions: Length 20/ATR Length 10/Multiplier 2.0, MA Type KAMA or FRAMA/ATR MA Type KAMA or TEMA, self-adjusting to market conditions
Offset Parameter:
Controls horizontal positioning of channels on chart. Positive values shift channels to the right (future) for visual projection, negative values shift left (past) for historical analysis, zero (default) aligns with current price bars for real-time signal analysis. Offset affects only visual display, not alert conditions or actual calculations.
📈 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
Keltner Channel Enhanced provides improvements over standard implementations while maintaining proven effectiveness.
Response Characteristics:
Standard EMA/RMA Configuration: Moderate trend lag (approximately 0.4 × length periods), smooth and stable channel width from RMA smoothing, good balance for most market conditions
Fast HMA/EMA Configuration: Approximately 60% reduction in trend lag compared to EMA, responsive channel width from EMA ATR smoothing, suitable for quick trend changes and breakouts
Adaptive KAMA/KAMA Configuration: Variable lag based on market efficiency, automatic adjustment to trending vs. ranging conditions, self-optimizing behavior reduces manual intervention
Comparison with Traditional Keltner Channels:
Enhanced Version Advantages:
Dual Algorithm Flexibility: Independent MA selection for trend and volatility vs. fixed EMA/RMA, separate tuning of trend responsiveness and channel stability
Market Adaptation: Choose configurations optimized for specific instruments and conditions, customize for scalping, swing, or position trading preferences
Comprehensive Alerts: Enhanced alert system including channel expansion detection
Traditional Version Advantages:
Simplicity: Fewer parameters, easier to understand and implement
Standardization: Fixed EMA/RMA combination ensures consistency across users
Research Base: Decades of backtesting and research on standard configuration
When to Use Enhanced Version: Trading multiple instruments with different characteristics, switching between trending and ranging markets, employing different strategies, algorithm-based trading systems requiring customization, seeking optimization for specific trading style and timeframe.
When to Use Standard Version: Beginning traders learning Keltner Channel concepts, following published research or trading systems, preferring simplicity and standardization, wanting to avoid optimization and curve-fitting risks.
Performance Across Market Conditions:
Strong Trending Markets: EMA or HMA basis with RMA or TEMA ATR smoothing provides quicker trend identification, pullbacks to basis offer excellent entry opportunities
Choppy/Ranging Markets: SMA or WMA basis with RMA ATR smoothing and lower multipliers, channel bounce strategies work well, avoid false breakouts
Volatile Markets: KAMA or FRAMA with EMA or TEMA, adaptive algorithms excel by automatic adjustment, wider multipliers (2.5-3.0) accommodate large price swings
Low Volatility/Consolidation: Channels narrow significantly indicating consolidation, algorithm choice less impactful, focus on detecting channel width contraction for breakout preparation
Keltner Channel vs. Bollinger Bands - Usage Comparison:
Favor Keltner Channels When: Trend-following is primary strategy, trading volatile instruments with gaps, want ATR-based volatility measurement, prefer fewer higher-quality channel touches, seeking stable channel width during trends.
Favor Bollinger Bands When: Mean-reversion is primary strategy, trading instruments with limited gaps, want statistical framework based on standard deviation, need squeeze patterns for breakout identification, prefer more frequent trading opportunities.
Use Both Together: Bollinger Band squeeze + Keltner Channel breakout is powerful combination, price outside Bollinger Bands but inside Keltner Channels indicates moderate signal, price outside both indicates very strong signal, Bollinger Bands for entries and Keltner Channels for trend confirmation.
Limitations and Considerations:
General Limitations:
Lagging Indicator: All moving averages lag price, even with reduced-lag algorithms
Trend-Dependent: Works best in trending markets, less effective in choppy conditions
No Direction Prediction: Indicates volatility and deviation, not future direction, requires confirmation
Enhanced Version Specific Considerations:
Optimization Risk: More parameters increase risk of curve-fitting historical data
Complexity: Additional choices may overwhelm beginning traders
Backtesting Challenges: Different algorithms produce different historical results
Mitigation Strategies:
Use Confirmation: Combine with momentum indicators (RSI, MACD), volume, or price action
Test Parameter Robustness: Ensure parameters work across range of values, not just optimized ones
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Confirm signals across different timeframes
Proper Risk Management: Use appropriate position sizing and stops
Start Simple: Begin with standard EMA/RMA before exploring alternatives
Optimal Usage Recommendations:
For Maximum Effectiveness:
Start with standard EMA/RMA configuration to understand classic behavior
Experiment with alternatives on demo account or paper trading
Match algorithm combination to market condition and trading style
Use channel width analysis to identify market phases
Combine with complementary indicators for confirmation
Implement strict risk management using ATR-based position sizing
Focus on high-quality setups rather than trading every signal
Respect the trend: trade with basis direction for higher probability
Complementary Indicators:
RSI or Stochastic: Confirm momentum at channel extremes
MACD: Confirm trend direction and momentum shifts
Volume: Validate breakouts and trend strength
ADX: Measure trend strength, avoid Keltner signals in weak trends
Support/Resistance: Combine with traditional levels for high-probability setups
Bollinger Bands: Use together for enhanced breakout and volatility analysis
USAGE NOTES
This indicator is designed for technical analysis and educational purposes. Keltner Channel Enhanced has limitations and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. While the flexible moving average selection for both trend and volatility components provides valuable adaptability across different market conditions, algorithm performance varies with market conditions, and past characteristics do not guarantee future results.
Key considerations:
Always use multiple forms of analysis and confirmation before entering trades
Backtest any parameter combination thoroughly before live trading
Be aware that optimization can lead to curve-fitting if not done carefully
Start with standard EMA/RMA settings and adjust only when specific conditions warrant
Understand that no moving average algorithm can eliminate lag entirely
Consider market regime (trending, ranging, volatile) when selecting parameters
Use ATR-based position sizing and risk management on every trade
Keltner Channels work best in trending markets, less effective in choppy conditions
Respect the trend direction indicated by price position relative to basis line
The enhanced flexibility of dual algorithm selection provides powerful tools for adaptation but requires responsible use, thorough understanding of how different algorithms behave under various market conditions, and disciplined risk management.
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
References
Ang, A. (2014) *Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing*. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Ang, A., Piazzesi, M. and Wei, M. (2006) 'What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?', *Journal of Econometrics*, 131(1-2), pp. 359-403.
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TA█ TA Library
📊 OVERVIEW
TA is a Pine Script technical analysis library. This library provides 25+ moving averages and smoothing filters , from classic SMA/EMA to Kalman Filters and adaptive algorithms, implemented based on academic research.
🎯 Core Features
Academic Based - Algorithms follow original papers and formulas
Performance Optimized - Pre-calculated constants for faster response
Unified Interface - Consistent function design
Research Based - Integrates technical analysis research
🎯 CONCEPTS
Library Design Philosophy
This technical analysis library focuses on providing:
Academic Foundation
Algorithms based on published research papers and academic standards
Implementations that follow original mathematical formulations
Clear documentation with research references
Developer Experience
Unified interface design for consistent usage patterns
Pre-calculated constants for optimal performance
Comprehensive function collection to reduce development time
Single import statement for immediate access to all functions
Each indicator encapsulated as a simple function call - one line of code simplifies complexity
Technical Excellence
25+ carefully implemented moving averages and filters
Support for advanced algorithms like Kalman Filter and MAMA/FAMA
Optimized code structure for maintainability and reliability
Regular updates incorporating latest research developments
🚀 USING THIS LIBRARY
Import Library
//@version=6
import DCAUT/TA/1 as dta
indicator("Advanced Technical Analysis", overlay=true)
Basic Usage Example
// Classic moving average combination
ema20 = ta.ema(close, 20)
kama20 = dta.kama(close, 20)
plot(ema20, "EMA20", color.red, 2)
plot(kama20, "KAMA20", color.green, 2)
Advanced Trading System
// Adaptive moving average system
kama = dta.kama(close, 20, 2, 30)
= dta.mamaFama(close, 0.5, 0.05)
// Trend confirmation and entry signals
bullTrend = kama > kama and mamaValue > famaValue
bearTrend = kama < kama and mamaValue < famaValue
longSignal = ta.crossover(close, kama) and bullTrend
shortSignal = ta.crossunder(close, kama) and bearTrend
plot(kama, "KAMA", color.blue, 3)
plot(mamaValue, "MAMA", color.orange, 2)
plot(famaValue, "FAMA", color.purple, 2)
plotshape(longSignal, "Buy", shape.triangleup, location.belowbar, color.green)
plotshape(shortSignal, "Sell", shape.triangledown, location.abovebar, color.red)
📋 FUNCTIONS REFERENCE
ewma(source, alpha)
Calculates the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average with dynamic alpha parameter.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
alpha (series float) : The smoothing parameter of the filter.
Returns: (float) The exponentially weighted moving average value.
dema(source, length)
Calculates the Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of a given data series.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars for the moving average calculation.
Returns: (float) The calculated Double Exponential Moving Average value.
tema(source, length)
Calculates the Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA) of a given data series.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars for the moving average calculation.
Returns: (float) The calculated Triple Exponential Moving Average value.
zlema(source, length)
Calculates the Zero-Lag Exponential Moving Average (ZLEMA) of a given data series. This indicator attempts to eliminate the lag inherent in all moving averages.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars for the moving average calculation.
Returns: (float) The calculated Zero-Lag Exponential Moving Average value.
tma(source, length)
Calculates the Triangular Moving Average (TMA) of a given data series. TMA is a double-smoothed simple moving average that reduces noise.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars for the moving average calculation.
Returns: (float) The calculated Triangular Moving Average value.
frama(source, length)
Calculates the Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA) of a given data series. FRAMA adapts its smoothing factor based on fractal geometry to reduce lag. Developed by John Ehlers.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars for the moving average calculation.
Returns: (float) The calculated Fractal Adaptive Moving Average value.
kama(source, length, fastLength, slowLength)
Calculates Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA) of a given data series. KAMA adjusts its smoothing based on market efficiency ratio. Developed by Perry J. Kaufman.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars for the efficiency calculation.
fastLength (simple int) : Fast EMA length for smoothing calculation. Optional. Default is 2.
slowLength (simple int) : Slow EMA length for smoothing calculation. Optional. Default is 30.
Returns: (float) The calculated Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average value.
t3(source, length, volumeFactor)
Calculates the Tilson Moving Average (T3) of a given data series. T3 is a triple-smoothed exponential moving average with improved lag characteristics. Developed by Tim Tillson.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars for the moving average calculation.
volumeFactor (simple float) : Volume factor affecting responsiveness. Optional. Default is 0.7.
Returns: (float) The calculated Tilson Moving Average value.
ultimateSmoother(source, length)
Calculates the Ultimate Smoother of a given data series. Uses advanced filtering techniques to reduce noise while maintaining responsiveness. Based on digital signal processing principles by John Ehlers.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars for the smoothing calculation.
Returns: (float) The calculated Ultimate Smoother value.
kalmanFilter(source, processNoise, measurementNoise)
Calculates the Kalman Filter of a given data series. Optimal estimation algorithm that estimates true value from noisy observations. Based on the Kalman Filter algorithm developed by Rudolf Kalman (1960).
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
processNoise (simple float) : Process noise variance (Q). Controls adaptation speed. Optional. Default is 0.05.
measurementNoise (simple float) : Measurement noise variance (R). Controls smoothing. Optional. Default is 1.0.
Returns: (float) The calculated Kalman Filter value.
mcginleyDynamic(source, length)
Calculates the McGinley Dynamic of a given data series. McGinley Dynamic is an adaptive moving average that adjusts to market speed changes. Developed by John R. McGinley Jr.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars for the dynamic calculation.
Returns: (float) The calculated McGinley Dynamic value.
mama(source, fastLimit, slowLimit)
Calculates the Mesa Adaptive Moving Average (MAMA) of a given data series. MAMA uses Hilbert Transform Discriminator to adapt to market cycles dynamically. Developed by John F. Ehlers.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
fastLimit (simple float) : Maximum alpha (responsiveness). Optional. Default is 0.5.
slowLimit (simple float) : Minimum alpha (smoothing). Optional. Default is 0.05.
Returns: (float) The calculated Mesa Adaptive Moving Average value.
fama(source, fastLimit, slowLimit)
Calculates the Following Adaptive Moving Average (FAMA) of a given data series. FAMA follows MAMA with reduced responsiveness for crossover signals. Developed by John F. Ehlers.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
fastLimit (simple float) : Maximum alpha (responsiveness). Optional. Default is 0.5.
slowLimit (simple float) : Minimum alpha (smoothing). Optional. Default is 0.05.
Returns: (float) The calculated Following Adaptive Moving Average value.
mamaFama(source, fastLimit, slowLimit)
Calculates Mesa Adaptive Moving Average (MAMA) and Following Adaptive Moving Average (FAMA).
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
fastLimit (simple float) : Maximum alpha (responsiveness). Optional. Default is 0.5.
slowLimit (simple float) : Minimum alpha (smoothing). Optional. Default is 0.05.
Returns: ( ) Tuple containing values.
laguerreFilter(source, length, gamma, order)
Calculates the standard N-order Laguerre Filter of a given data series. Standard Laguerre Filter uses uniform weighting across all polynomial terms. Developed by John F. Ehlers.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Length for UltimateSmoother preprocessing.
gamma (simple float) : Feedback coefficient (0-1). Lower values reduce lag. Optional. Default is 0.8.
order (simple int) : The order of the Laguerre filter (1-10). Higher order increases lag. Optional. Default is 8.
Returns: (float) The calculated standard Laguerre Filter value.
laguerreBinomialFilter(source, length, gamma)
Calculates the Laguerre Binomial Filter of a given data series. Uses 6-pole feedback with binomial weighting coefficients. Developed by John F. Ehlers.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Length for UltimateSmoother preprocessing.
gamma (simple float) : Feedback coefficient (0-1). Lower values reduce lag. Optional. Default is 0.5.
Returns: (float) The calculated Laguerre Binomial Filter value.
superSmoother(source, length)
Calculates the Super Smoother of a given data series. SuperSmoother is a second-order Butterworth filter from aerospace technology. Developed by John F. Ehlers.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Period for the filter calculation.
Returns: (float) The calculated Super Smoother value.
rangeFilter(source, length, multiplier)
Calculates the Range Filter of a given data series. Range Filter reduces noise by filtering price movements within a dynamic range.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars for the average range calculation.
multiplier (simple float) : Multiplier for the smooth range. Higher values increase filtering. Optional. Default is 2.618.
Returns: ( ) Tuple containing filtered value, trend direction, upper band, and lower band.
qqe(source, rsiLength, rsiSmooth, qqeFactor)
Calculates the Quantitative Qualitative Estimation (QQE) of a given data series. QQE is an improved RSI that reduces noise and provides smoother signals. Developed by Igor Livshin.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
rsiLength (simple int) : Number of bars for the RSI calculation. Optional. Default is 14.
rsiSmooth (simple int) : Number of bars for smoothing the RSI. Optional. Default is 5.
qqeFactor (simple float) : QQE factor for volatility band width. Optional. Default is 4.236.
Returns: ( ) Tuple containing smoothed RSI and QQE trend line.
sslChannel(source, length)
Calculates the Semaphore Signal Level (SSL) Channel of a given data series. SSL Channel provides clear trend signals using moving averages of high and low prices.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars for the moving average calculation.
Returns: ( ) Tuple containing SSL Up and SSL Down lines.
ma(source, length, maType)
Calculates a Moving Average based on the specified type. Universal interface supporting all moving average algorithms.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars for the moving average calculation.
maType (simple MaType) : Type of moving average to calculate. Optional. Default is SMA.
Returns: (float) The calculated moving average value based on the specified type.
atr(length, maType)
Calculates the Average True Range (ATR) using the specified moving average type. Developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr.
Parameters:
length (simple int) : Number of bars for the ATR calculation.
maType (simple MaType) : Type of moving average to use for smoothing. Optional. Default is RMA.
Returns: (float) The calculated Average True Range value.
macd(source, fastLength, slowLength, signalLength, maType, signalMaType)
Calculates the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) with customizable MA types. Developed by Gerald Appel.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
fastLength (simple int) : Period for the fast moving average.
slowLength (simple int) : Period for the slow moving average.
signalLength (simple int) : Period for the signal line moving average.
maType (simple MaType) : Type of moving average for main MACD calculation. Optional. Default is EMA.
signalMaType (simple MaType) : Type of moving average for signal line calculation. Optional. Default is EMA.
Returns: ( ) Tuple containing MACD line, signal line, and histogram values.
dmao(source, fastLength, slowLength, maType)
Calculates the Dual Moving Average Oscillator (DMAO) of a given data series. Uses the same algorithm as the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO), but can be applied to any data series.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
fastLength (simple int) : Period for the fast moving average.
slowLength (simple int) : Period for the slow moving average.
maType (simple MaType) : Type of moving average to use for both calculations. Optional. Default is EMA.
Returns: (float) The calculated Dual Moving Average Oscillator value as a percentage.
continuationIndex(source, length, gamma, order)
Calculates the Continuation Index of a given data series. The index represents the Inverse Fisher Transform of the normalized difference between an UltimateSmoother and an N-order Laguerre filter. Developed by John F. Ehlers, published in TASC 2025.09.
Parameters:
source (series float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : The calculation length.
gamma (simple float) : Controls the phase response of the Laguerre filter. Optional. Default is 0.8.
order (simple int) : The order of the Laguerre filter (1-10). Optional. Default is 8.
Returns: (float) The calculated Continuation Index value.
📚 RELEASE NOTES
v1.0 (2025.09.24)
✅ 25+ technical analysis functions
✅ Complete adaptive moving average series (KAMA, FRAMA, MAMA/FAMA)
✅ Advanced signal processing filters (Kalman, Laguerre, SuperSmoother, UltimateSmoother)
✅ Performance optimized with pre-calculated constants and efficient algorithms
✅ Unified function interface design following TradingView best practices
✅ Comprehensive moving average collection (DEMA, TEMA, ZLEMA, T3, etc.)
✅ Volatility and trend detection tools (QQE, SSL Channel, Range Filter)
✅ Continuation Index - Latest research from TASC 2025.09
✅ MACD and ATR calculations supporting multiple moving average types
✅ Dual Moving Average Oscillator (DMAO) for arbitrary data series analysis
RSI ADX Bollinger Analysis High-level purpose and design philosophy
This indicator — RSI-ADX-Bollinger Analysis — is a compact, educational market-analysis toolkit that blends momentum (RSI), trend strength (ADX), volatility structure (Bollinger Bands) and simple volumetrics to provide traders a snapshot of market condition and trade idea quality. The design philosophy is explicit and layered: use each component to answer a different question about price action (momentum, conviction, volatility, participation), then combine answers to form a more robust, explainable signal. The mashup is intended for analysis and learning, not automatic execution: it surfaces the why behind signals so traders can test, learn and apply rules with risk management.
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What each indicator contributes (component-by-component)
RSI (Relative Strength Index) — role and behavior: RSI measures short-term momentum by comparing recent gains to recent losses. A high RSI (near or above the overbought threshold) indicates strong recent buying pressure and potential exhaustion if price is extended. A low RSI (near or below the oversold threshold) indicates strong recent selling pressure and potential exhaustion or a value area for mean-reversion. In this dashboard RSI is used as the primary momentum trigger: it helps identify whether price is locally over-extended on the buy or sell side.
ADX (Average Directional Index) — role and behavior: ADX measures trend strength independently of direction. When ADX rises above a chosen threshold (e.g., 25), it signals that the market is trending with conviction; ADX below the threshold suggests range or weak trend. Because patterns and momentum signals perform differently in trending vs. ranging markets, ADX is used here as a filter: only when ADX indicates sufficient directional strength does the system treat RSI+BB breakouts as meaningful trade candidates.
Bollinger Bands — role and behavior: Bollinger Bands (20-period basis ± N standard deviations) show volatility envelope and relative price position vs. a volatility-adjusted mean. Price outside the upper band suggests pronounced extension relative to recent volatility; price outside the lower band suggests extended weakness. A band expansion (increasing width) signals volatility breakout potential; contraction signals range-bound conditions and potential squeeze. In this dashboard, Bollinger Bands provide the volatility/structural context: RSI extremes plus price beyond the band imply a stronger, volatility-backed move.
Volume split & basic MA trend — role and behavior: Buy-like and sell-like volume (simple heuristic using close>open or closeopen) or sell-like (close1.2 for validation and compare win rate and expectancy.
4. TF alignment: Accept signals only when higher timeframe (e.g., 4h) trend agrees — compare results.
5. Parameter sensitivity: Vary RSI threshold (70/30 vs 80/20), Bollinger stddev (2 vs 2.5), and ADX threshold (25 vs 30) and measure stability of results.
These exercises teach both statistical thinking and the specific failure modes of the mashup.
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Limitations, failure modes and caveats (explicit & teachable)
• ADX and Bollinger measures lag during fast-moving news events — signals can be late or wrong during earnings, macro shocks, or illiquid sessions.
• Volume classification by open/close is a heuristic; it does not equal TAPEDATA, footprint or signed volume. Use it as supportive evidence, not definitive proof.
• RSI can remain overbought or oversold for extended stretches in persistent trends — relying solely on RSI extremes without ADX or BB context invites large drawdowns.
• Small-cap or low-liquidity instruments yield noisy band behavior and unreliable volume ratios.
Being explicit about these limitations is a strong point in a TradingView description — it demonstrates transparency and educational intent.
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Originality & mashup justification (text you can paste)
This script intentionally combines classical momentum (RSI), volatility envelope (Bollinger Bands) and trend-strength (ADX) because each indicator answers a different and complementary question: RSI answers is price locally extreme?, Bollinger answers is price outside normal volatility?, and ADX answers is the market moving with conviction?. Volume participation then acts as a practical check for real market involvement. This combination is not a simple “indicator mashup”; it is a designed ensemble where each element reduces the others’ failure modes and together produce a teachable, testable signal framework. The script’s purpose is educational and analytical — to show traders how to interpret the interplay of momentum, volatility, and trend strength.
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TradingView publication guidance & compliance checklist
To satisfy TradingView rules about mashups and descriptions, include the following items in your script description (without exposing source code):
1. Purpose statement: One or two lines describing the script’s objective (educational multi-indicator market overview and idea filter).
2. Component list: Name the major modules (RSI, Bollinger Bands, ADX, volume heuristic, SMA trend checks, signal tracking) and one-sentence reason for each.
3. How they interact: A succinct non-code explanation: “RSI finds momentum extremes; Bollinger confirms volatility expansion; ADX confirms trend strength; all three must align for a BUY/SELL.”
4. Inputs: List adjustable inputs (RSI length and thresholds, BB length & stddev, ADX threshold & smoothing, volume MA, table position/size).
5. Usage instructions: Short workflow (check TF alignment → confirm participation → define stop & R:R → backtest).
6. Limitations & assumptions: Explicitly state volume is approximated, ADX has lag, and avoid promising guaranteed profits.
7. Non-promotional language: No external contact info, ads, claims of exclusivity or guaranteed outcomes.
8. Trademark clause: If you used trademark symbols, remove or provide registration proof.
9. Risk disclaimer: Add the copy-ready disclaimer below.
This matches TradingView’s request for meaningful descriptions that explain originality and inter-component reasoning.
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Copy-ready short publication description (paste into TradingView)
Advanced RSI-ADX-Bollinger Market Overview — educational multi-indicator dashboard. This script combines RSI (momentum extremes), Bollinger Bands (volatility envelope and band expansion), ADX (trend strength), simple SMA trend bias and a basic buy/sell volume heuristic to surface high-quality idea candidates. Signals require alignment of momentum, volatility expansion and rising ADX; volume participation is displayed to support signal confidence. Inputs are configurable (RSI length/levels, BB length/stddev, ADX length/threshold, volume MA, display options). This tool is intended for analysis and learning — not for automated execution. Users should back test and apply robust risk management. Limitations: volume classification here is a heuristic (close>open), ADX and BB measures lag in fast news events, and results vary by instrument liquidity.
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Copy-ready risk & misuse disclaimer (paste into description or help file)
This script is provided for educational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. It does not guarantee profits. Indicators are heuristics and may give false or late signals; always back test and paper-trade before using real capital. The author is not responsible for trading losses resulting from the use or misuse of this indicator. Use proper position sizing and risk controls.
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Risk Disclaimer: This tool is provided for education and analysis only. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee returns. Users assume all risk for trades made based on this script. Back test thoroughly and use proper risk management.
ADX MTF mura visionOverview
ADX MTF — mura vision measures trend strength and visualizes a higher-timeframe (HTF) ADX on any chart. The current-TF ADX is drawn as a line; the HTF ADX is rendered as “step” segments to reflect closed HTF bars without repainting. Optional soft fills highlight the 20–25 (trend forming) and 40–50 (strong trend) zones.
How it works
ADX (current TF) : Classic Wilder formulation using DI components and RMA smoothing.
HTF ADX : Requested via request.security(..., lookahead_off, gaps_off).
When a new HTF bar opens, the previous value is frozen as a horizontal segment.
The current HTF bar is shown as a live moving segment.
This staircase look is expected on lower timeframes.
Auto timeframe mapping
If “Auto” is selected, the HTF is derived from the chart TF:
<30m → 60m, 30–<240m → 240m, 240m–<1D → 1D, 1D → 1W, 1W/2W → 1M, ≥1M → same.
Inputs
DI Length and ADX Smoothing — core ADX parameters.
Higher Time Frame — Auto or a fixed TF.
Line colors/widths for current ADX and HTF ADX.
Fill zone 20–25 and Fill zone 40–50 — optional light background fills.
Number of HTF ADX Bars — limits stored HTF segments to control chart load.
Reading the indicator
ADX < 20: typically range-bound conditions; trend setups require extra caution.
20–25: trend emergence; breakouts and continuation structures gain validity.
40–50: strong trend; favor continuation and manage with trailing stops.
>60 and turning down: possible trend exhaustion or transition toward range.
Note: ADX measures strength, not direction. Combine with your directional filter (e.g., price vs. MA, +DI/−DI, structure/levels).
Non-repainting behavior
HTF values use lookahead_off; closed HTF bars are never revised.
The only moving piece is the live segment for the current HTF bar.
Best practices
Use HTF ADX as a regime filter; time entries with the current-TF ADX rising through your threshold.
Pair with ATR-based stops and a MA/structure filter for direction.
Consider higher thresholds on highly volatile altcoins.
Performance notes
The script draws line segments for HTF bars. If your chart becomes heavy, reduce “Number of HTF ADX Bars.”
Disclaimer
This script is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk.
Intrabar Volume Delta — RealTime + History (Stocks/Crypto/Forex)Intrabar Volume Delta Grid — RealTime + History (Stocks/Crypto/Forex)
# Short Description
Shows intrabar Up/Down volume, Delta (absolute/relative) and UpShare% in a compact grid for both real-time and historical bars. Includes an MTF (M1…D1) dashboard, contextual coloring, density controls, and alerts on Δ and UpShare%. Smart historical splitting (“History Mode”) for Crypto/Futures/FX.
---
# What it does (Quick)
* **UpVol / DownVol / Δ / UpShare%** — visualizes order-flow inside each candle.
* **Real-time** — accumulates intrabar volume live by tick-direction.
* **History Mode** — splits Up/Down on closed bars via simple or range-aware logic.
* **MTF Dashboard** — one table view across M1, M5, M15, M30, H1, H4, D1 (Vol, Up/Down, Δ%, Share, Trend).
* **Contextual opacity** — stronger signals appear bolder.
* **Label density** — draw every N-th bar and limit to last X bars for performance.
* **Alerts** — thresholds for |Δ|, Δ%, and UpShare%.
---
# How it works (Real-Time vs History)
* **Real-time (open bar):** volume increments into **UpVolRT** or **DownVolRT** depending on last price move (↑ goes to Up, ↓ to Down). This approximates live order-flow even when full tick history isn’t available.
* **History (closed bars):**
* **None** — no split (Up/Down = 0/0). Safest for equities/indices with unreliable tick history.
* **Approx (Close vs Open)** — all volume goes to candle direction (green → Up 100%, red → Down 100%). Fast but yields many 0/100% bars.
* **Price Action Based** — splits by Close position within High-Low range; strength = |Close−mid|/(High−Low). Above mid → more Up; below mid → more Down. Falls back to direction if High==Low.
* **Auto** — **Stocks/Index → None**, **Crypto/Futures/FX → Approx**. If you see too many 0/100 bars, switch to **Price Action Based**.
---
# Rows & Meaning
* **Volume** — total bar volume (no split).
* **UpVol / DownVol** — directional intrabar volume.
* **Delta (Δ)** — UpVol − DownVol.
* **Absolute**: raw units
* **Relative (Δ%)**: Δ / (Up+Down) × 100
* **Both**: shows both formats
* **UpShare%** — UpVol / (Up+Down) × 100. >50% bullish, <50% bearish.
* Helpful icons: ▲ (>65%), ▼ (<35%).
---
# MTF Dashboard (🔧 Enable Dashboard)
A single table with **Vol, Up, Down, Δ%, Share, Trend (🔼/🔽/⏭️)** for selected timeframes (M1…D1). Great for a fast “panorama” read of flow alignment across horizons.
---
# Inputs (Grouped)
## Display
* Toggle rows: **Volume / Up / Down / Delta / UpShare**
* **Delta Display**: Absolute / Relative / Both
## Realtime & History
* **History Mode**: Auto / None / Approx / Price Action Based
* **Compact Numbers**: 1.2k, 1.25M, 3.4B…
## Theme & UI
* **Theme Mode**: Auto / Light / Dark
* **Row Spacing**: vertical spacing between rows
* **Top Row Y**: moves the whole grid vertically
* **Draw Guide Lines**: faint dotted guides
* **Text Size**: Tiny / Small / Normal / Large
## 🔧 Dashboard Settings
* **Enable Dashboard**
* **📏 Table Text Size**: Tiny…Huge
* **🦓 Zebra Rows**
* **🔲 Table Border**
## ⏰ Timeframes (for Dashboard)
* **M1…D1** toggles
## Contextual Coloring
* **Enable Contextual Coloring**: opacity by signal strength
* **Δ% cap / Share offset cap**: saturation caps
* **Min/Max transparency**: solid vs faint extremes
## Label Density & Size
* **Show every N-th bar**: draw labels only every Nth bar
* **Limit to last X bars**: keep labels only in the most recent X bars
## Colors
* Up / Down / Text / Guide
## Alerts
* **Delta Threshold (abs)** — |Δ| in volume units
* **UpShare > / <** — bullish/bearish thresholds
* **Enable Δ% Alert**, **Δ% > +**, **Δ% < −** — relative delta levels
---
# How to use (Quick Start)
1. Add the indicator to your chart (overlay=false → separate pane).
2. **History Mode**:
* Crypto/Futures/FX → keep **Auto** or switch to **Price Action Based** for richer history.
* Stocks/Index → prefer **None** or **Price Action Based** for safer splits.
3. **Label Density**: start with **Limit to last X bars = 30–150** and **Show every N-th bar = 2–4**.
4. **Contextual Coloring**: keep on to emphasize strong Δ% / Share moves.
5. **Dashboard**: enable and pick only the TFs you actually use.
6. **Alerts**: set thresholds (ideas below).
---
# Alerts (in TradingView)
Add alert → pick this indicator → choose any of:
* **Delta exceeds threshold** (|Δ| > X)
* **UpShare above threshold** (UpShare% > X)
* **UpShare below threshold** (UpShare% < X)
* **Relative Delta above +X%**
* **Relative Delta below −X%**
**Starter thresholds (tune per symbol & TF):**
* **Crypto M1/M5**: Δ% > +25…35 (bullish), Δ% < −25…−35 (bearish)
* **FX (tick volume)**: UpShare > 60–65% or < 40–35%
* **Stocks (liquid)**: set **Absolute Δ** by typical volume scale (e.g., 50k / 100k / 500k)
---
# Notes by Market Type
* **Crypto/Futures**: 24/7 and high liquidity — **Price Action Based** often gives nicer history splits than Approx.
* **Forex (FX)**: TradingView volume is typically **tick volume** (not true exchange volume). Treat Δ/Share as tick-based flow, still very useful intraday.
* **Stocks/Index**: historical tick detail can be limited. **None** or **Price Action Based** is a safer default. If you see too many 0/100% shares, switch away from Approx.
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# “All Timeframes” accuracy
* Works on **any TF** (M1 → D1/W1).
* **Real-time accuracy** is strong for the open bar (live accumulation).
* **Historical accuracy** depends on your **History Mode** (None = safest, Approx = fastest/simplest, Price Action Based = more nuanced).
* The MTF dashboard uses `request.security` and therefore follows the same logic per TF.
---
# Trade Ideas (Use-Cases)
* **Scalping (M1–M5)**: a spike in Δ% + UpShare>65% + rising total Vol → momentum entries.
* **Intraday (M5–M30–H1)**: when multiple TFs show aligned Δ%/Share (e.g., M5 & M15 bullish), join the trend.
* **Swing (H4–D1)**: persistent Δ% > 0 and UpShare > 55–60% → structural accumulation bias.
---
# Advantages
* **True-feeling live flow** on the open bar.
* **Adaptable history** (three modes) to match data quality.
* **Clean visual layout** with guides, compact numbers, contextual opacity.
* **MTF snapshot** for quick bias read.
* **Performance controls** (last X bars, every N-th bar).
---
# Limitations & Care
* **FX uses tick volume** — interpret Δ/Share accordingly.
* **History Mode is an approximation** — confirm with trend/structure/liquidity context.
* **Illiquid symbols** can produce noisy or contradictory signals.
* **Too many labels** can slow charts → raise N, lower X, or disable guides.
---
# Best Practices (Checklist)
* Crypto/Futures: prefer **Price Action Based** for history.
* Stocks: **None** or **Price Action Based**; be cautious with **Approx**.
* FX: pair Δ% & UpShare% with session context (London/NY) and volatility.
* If labels overlap: tweak **Row Spacing** and **Text Size**.
* In the dashboard, keep only the TFs you actually act on.
* Alerts: start around **Δ% 25–35** for “punchy” moves, then refine per asset.
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# FAQ
**1) Why do some closed bars show 0%/100% UpShare?**
You’re on **Approx** history mode. Switch to **Price Action Based** for smoother splits.
**2) Δ% looks strong but price doesn’t move — why?**
Δ% is an **order-flow** measure. Price also depends on liquidity pockets, sessions, news, higher-timeframe structure. Use confirmations.
**3) Performance slowdown — what to do?**
Lower **Limit to last X bars** (e.g., 30–100), increase **Show every N-th bar** (2–6), or disable **Draw Guide Lines**.
**4) Dashboard values don’t “match” the grid exactly?**
Dashboard is multi-TF via `request.security` and follows the history logic per TF. Differences are normal.
---
# Short “Store” Marketing Blurb
Intrabar Volume Delta Grid reveals the order-flow inside every candle (Up/Down, Δ, UpShare%) — live and on history. With smart history splitting, an MTF dashboard, contextual emphasis, and flexible alerts, it helps you spot momentum and bias across Crypto, Forex (tick volume), and Stocks. Tidy labels and compact numbers keep the panel readable and fast.
