Adaptive Supply and Demand [EdgeTerminal]Adaptive Supply and Demand is a dynamic supply and demand indicator with a few unique twists. It considers volume pressure, volatility-based adjustments and multi-time frame momentum for confidence scoring (multi-step confirmation) to generate dynamic lines that adjust based on the market and also to generate dynamic support/resistance levels for the supply and demand lines.
The dynamic support and resistance lines shown gives you a better situational awareness of the current state of the market and add more context to why the market is moving into a certain direction.
> Trading Scenarios
When the confidence score is over 80%, strong volume pressure in trend direction (up or down), volatility is low and momentum is aligned across timeframes, there is an indication of a strong upward or downward trend.
When the supply and demand line crossover, the confidence score is over 75% and the volume pressure is shifting, this can be an indicator of trend reversal. Use tight initial stops, scale into position as trend develops, monitor the volume pressure for continuation and wait for confidence confirmation.
When the confiance score is below 60%, the volume pressure is choppy, volatility is high, you want to avoid trading or reduce position size, wait for confidence improvements, use support and resistance for entries/exits and use tighter stops due to market conditions. This is an indication of a ranging market.
Another scenario is when there is a sudden volume pressure increase, and a raising confidence score, the volatility is expanding and the bar momentum is aligning the volatility direction. This can indicate a breakout scenario.
> How it Works
1. Volume Pressure Analysis
Volume Pressure Analysis is a key component that measures the true buying and selling force in the market. Here's a detailed breakdown. The idea is to standardize volume to prevent large spikes from skewing results.
The indicator employs an adaptive volume normalization technique to detect genuine buying and selling pressure.
It takes current volume and divides it by average volume.
If normVol > 1: Current volume is above average
If normVol < 1: Current volume is below average
An example if this would be If current volume is 1500 and average is 1000, normVol = 1.5 (50% above average)
Another component of the volume pressure analysis is the Price Change Calculation sub-module. The purpose of this is to measure price movement relative to recent average.
It works by subtracting the average price from the current price. If the value is positive, price is average and if negative, price is below average.
Finally, the volume pressure is calculated to combine volume and price for true pressure reading.
2. Savitzky-Golay Filtering
SG filtering implements advanced signal smoothing while preserving important trend features. It uses weighted moving average approximation, preserves higher moments of data and reduces noise while maintaining signal integrity.
This results in smoother signal lines, reduced false crossovers and better trend identification. Traditional moving averages tend to lag and smooth out important features. Additionally, simple moving averages can miss critical turning points and regular smoothing can delay signal generation.
SG filtering preserves higher moments such as peaks, valleys and trends, reduces noise while maintaining signal sharpness.
It works by creating a symmetric weighting scheme. This way center points get the highest weights while edge points get the lowest weight.
3. Parkinson's Volatility
Parkinson's Volatility is an advanced volatility measurement formula using high-low range data. It uses high-low range for volatility calculation, incorporates logarithmic returns and annualized the volatility measure.
This results in more accurate volatility measurement, better risk assessment and dynamic signal sensitivity.
4. Multi-timeframe Momentum
This combines signals from each module for each timeframe to calculate momentum across three timeframes. It also applies weighted importance to each timeframe and generates a composite momentum signal.
This results in a more comprehensive trend analysis, reduced timeframe bias and better trend confirmation.
> Indicator Settings
Short-term Period:
Lower values makes it more sensitive, meaning it will generate more signals. Higher values makes it less sensitive, resulting in fewer signals. We recommend a 5 to 15 range for day trading, and 10 to 20 for swing trading
Medium-term Period:
Lower values result in faster trend confirmation and higher values show slower and more reliable confirmation. We recommend a range of 15-25 for day trading and 20-30 for swing trading.
Long-term Period:
Lower values makes it more responsive to trend changes and higher values are better for major trend identification. We recommend a range of 40-60 for day trading and 50-100 for swing trading.
Volume Analysis Window:
Lower values result in more sensitivity to volume changes and higher values result in smoother volume analysis. The optimal range is 15-25 for most trading styles.
Confidence Threshold:
Lower values generate more signals but quality decreases. Higher values generate fewer signals but accuracy increases.The optimal range is 0.65-0.8 for most trading conditions.
Komut dosyalarını "如何用wind搜索股票的发行价和份数" için ara
Session Bar/Candle ColoringChange the color of candles within a user-defined trading session. Borders and wicks can be changed as well, not just the body color.
PREFACE
This script can be used an educational resource for those who are interested in learning Pine Script. Therefore, the script is published open source and is organized in a manner that follows the recommended Style Guide .
While the main premise of the indicator is rather simple, the script showcases various things that can be achieved such as conditional plotting, alignment of indicator settings, user input validation, script optimization, and more. The script also has examples of taking into consideration the chart timeframe and/or different chart types (Heikin Ashi, Renko, etc.) that a user might be running it on. Note: for complete beginners, I strongly suggest going through the Pine Script User Manual (possibly more than once).
FEATURES
Besides being able to select a specific time window, the indicator also provides additional color settings for changing the background color or changing the colors of neutral/indecisive candles, as shown in the image below.
This allows for a higher level of customization beyond the TradingView chart settings or other similar scripts that are currently available.
HOW TO USE
First, define the intraday trading session that will contain the candles to modify. The session can be limited to specific days of the week.
Next, select the parts of the candles that should be modified: Body, Borders, Wick, and/or Background.
For each of the candle parts that were enabled, you can select the colors that will be used depending on whether a candle is bullish (⇧), bearish (⇩), or neutral (⇆).
All other indicator settings will have a detailed tooltip to describe its usage and/or effect.
LIMITATIONS
The indicator is not intended to function on Daily or higher timeframes due to the intraday nature of session time windows.
The indicator cannot always automatically detect the chart type being used, therefore the user is requested to manually input the chart type via the " Chart Style " setting.
Depending on the available historical data and the selected choice for the " Portion of bar in session " setting, the indicator may not be able to update very old candles on the chart.
EXAMPLE USAGE
This section will show examples of different scenarios that the indicator can be used for.
Emphasizing a main trading session.
Defining a "Pre/post market hours background" like is available for some symbols (e.g., NASDAQ:AAPL ).
Highlighting in which bar the midnight candle occurs.
Hiding indecision bars (neutral candles).
Showing only "Regular Trading Hours" for a chart that does not have the option to toggle ETH/RTH. To achieve this, the actual chart data is hidden, and only the indicator is visible; alternatively, a 2nd instance of the indicator could change colors to match the chart background.
Using a combination of Bars and Japanese Candlesticks. Alternatively, this could be done by hiding the main chart data and using 2 instances of the indicator (one with " Chart Style " setting as Bars , and the other set to Candles ).
Using a combination of thin and thick bars on Range charts. Note: requires disabling the "Thin Bars" setting for Bar charts in the TradingView chart settings.
NOTES
If using more than one instance of this indicator on the same chart, you can use the TradingView "Save Indicator Template" feature to avoid having to re-configure the multiple indicators at a later time.
This indicator is intended to work "out-of-the-box" thanks to the behind_chart option introduced to Pine Script in October 2024. But you can always manually bring the indicator to the front just in case the color changes are not being seen (using the "More" option in the indicator status line: More > Visual Order > Bring to front ).
Many thanks to fikira for their help and inspiring me to create open source scripts.
Any feedback including bug reports or suggestions for improving the indicator (or source code itself) are always welcome in the comments section.
Time-Based VWAP (TVWAP)(TVWAP) Indicator
The Time-Based Volume Weighted Average Price (TVWAP) indicator is a customized version of VWAP designed for intraday trading sessions with defined start and end times. Unlike the traditional VWAP, which calculates the volume-weighted average price over an entire trading day, this indicator allows you to focus on specific time periods, such as ICT kill zones (e.g., London Open, New York Open, Power Hour). It helps crypto scalpers and advanced traders identify price deviations relative to volume during key trading windows.
Key Features:
Custom Time Interval:
You can set the exact start and end times for the VWAP calculation using input settings for hours and minutes (24-hour format).
Ideal for analyzing short, high-liquidity periods.
Dynamic Accumulation of Price and Volume:
The indicator resets at the beginning of the specified session and accumulates price-volume data until the end of the session.
Ensures that the TVWAP reflects the weighted average price specific to the chosen session.
Visual Representation:
The indicator plots the TVWAP line only during the specified time window, providing a clear visual reference for price action during that period.
Outside the session, the TVWAP line is hidden (na).
Use Cases:
ICT Scalp Trading:
Monitor price rebalances or potential liquidity sweeps near TVWAP during important trading sessions.
Mean Reversion Strategies:
Detect pullbacks toward the session’s average price for potential entry points.
Breakout Confirmation:
Confirm price direction relative to TVWAP during kill zones or high-volume times to determine if a breakout is supported by volume.
Inputs:
Start Hour/Minute: The time when the TVWAP calculation starts.
End Hour/Minute: The time when the TVWAP calculation ends.
Technical Explanation:
The indicator uses the timestamp function to create time markers for the session start and end.
During the session, the price-volume (close * volume) is accumulated along with the total volume.
TVWAP is calculated as:
TVWAP = (Sum of (Price × Volume)) ÷ (Sum of Volume)
Once the session ends, the TVWAP resets for the next trading period.
Customization Ideas:
Alerts: Add notifications when the price touches or deviates significantly from TVWAP.
Different Colors: Use different line colors based on upward or downward trends.
Multiple Sessions: Add support for multiple TVWAP lines for different time periods (e.g., London + New York).
Golden Time ErfanThe "Golden Time" Indicator is a custom-built TradingView tool designed to assist traders by highlighting two critical trading time windows: the New York session open and a specific strategy-based time known as Golden Time.
Custom ATR with Paranormal Bar FilterCustom ATR with Paranormal Bar Filter
Description:
This indicator calculates a custom ATR (Average True Range) by filtering out bars with unusually large or small price ranges. It helps provide a more accurate measure of market volatility by ignoring outliers.
How it works:
True Range Calculation:
The price range for each bar is calculated.
Bars with ranges much larger or smaller than typical are excluded.
Filtered ATR:
The ATR is calculated using only the bars that pass the filter.
Current Bar Progress:
Measures how much the current bar has moved compared to the filtered ATR, based on the difference between its opening and closing prices.
Display:
A line represents the filtered ATR.
A table shows the filtered ATR, the current bar's range, and its progress relative to the ATR.
Input Settings:
ATR Period: Number of bars used to calculate the ATR.
Filter Window: Number of recent bars used to determine the typical range.
Filter Threshold: Sensitivity of the filter. A higher value allows more bars to pass.
How to Use:
Monitor Volatility:
Use the filtered ATR to understand market volatility while ignoring unusual price movements.
Track Current Bar Progress:
See how much of the ATR the current bar has completed.
Adjust Filter Settings:
Fine-tune the filter to match your trading timeframe and strategy.
This indicator is designed for traders who want to track market volatility without being misled by extreme outlier bars.
High/Low Location Frequency [LuxAlgo]The High/Low Location Frequency tool provides users with probabilities of tops and bottoms at user-defined periods, along with advanced filters that offer deep and objective market information about the likelihood of a top or bottom in the market.
🔶 USAGE
There are four different time periods that traders can select for analysis of probabilities:
HOUR OF DAY: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each hour of the day
DAY OF WEEK: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each day of the week
DAY OF MONTH: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each day of the month
MONTH OF YEAR: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each month
The data is displayed as a dashboard, which users can position according to their preferences. The dashboard includes useful information in the header, such as the number of periods and the date from which the data is gathered. Additionally, users can enable active filters to customize their view. The probabilities are displayed in one, two, or three columns, depending on the number of elements.
🔹 Advanced Filters
Advanced Filters allow traders to exclude specific data from the results. They can choose to use none or all filters simultaneously, inputting a list of numbers separated by spaces or commas. However, it is not possible to use both separators on the same filter.
The tool is equipped with five advanced filters:
HOURS OF DAY: The permitted range is from 0 to 23.
DAYS OF WEEK: The permitted range is from 1 to 7.
DAYS OF MONTH: The permitted range is from 1 to 31.
MONTHS: The permitted range is from 1 to 12.
YEARS: The permitted range is from 1000 to 2999.
It should be noted that the DAYS OF WEEK advanced filter has been designed for use with tickers that trade every day, such as those trading in the crypto market. In such cases, the numbers displayed will range from 1 (Sunday) to 7 (Saturday). Conversely, for tickers that do not trade over the weekend, the numbers will range from 1 (Monday) to 5 (Friday).
To illustrate the application of this filter, we will exclude results for Mondays and Tuesdays, the first five days of each month, January and February, and the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. Let us review the results:
DAYS OF WEEK: `2,3` or `2 3` (for crypto) or `1,2` or `1 2` (for the rest)
DAYS OF MONTH: `1,2,3,4,5` or `1 2 3 4 5`
MONTHS: `1,2` or `1 2`
YEARS: `2020,2021,2022` or `2020 2021 2022`
🔹 High Probability Lines
The tool enables traders to identify the next period with the highest probability of a top (red) and/or bottom (green) on the chart, marked with two horizontal lines indicating the location of these periods.
🔹 Top/Bottom Labels and Periods Highlight
The tool is capable of indicating on the chart the upper and lower limits of each selected period, as well as the commencement of each new period, thus providing traders with a convenient reference point.
🔶 SETTINGS
Period: Select how many bars (hours, days, or months) will be used to gather data from, max value as default.
Execution Window: Select how many bars (hours, days, or months) will be used to gather data from
🔹 Advanced Filters
Hours of day: Filter which hours of the day are excluded from the data, it accepts a list of hours from 0 to 23 separated by commas or spaces, users can not mix commas or spaces as a separator, must choose one
Days of week: Filter which days of the week are excluded from the data, it accepts a list of days from 1 to 5 for tickers not trading weekends, or from 1 to 7 for tickers trading all week, users can choose between commas or spaces as a separator, but can not mix them on the same filter.
Days of month: Filter which days of the month are excluded from the data, it accepts a list of days from 1 to 31, users can choose between commas or spaces as separator, but can not mix them on the same filter.
Months: Filter months to exclude from data. Accepts months from 1 to 12. Choose one separator: comma or space.
Years: Filter years to exclude from data. Accepts years from 1000 to 2999. Choose one separator: comma or space.
🔹 Dashboard
Dashboard Location: Select both the vertical and horizontal parameters for the desired location of the dashboard.
Dashboard Size: Select size for dashboard.
🔹 Style
High Probability Top Line: Enable/disable `High Probability Top` vertical line and choose color
High Probability Bottom Line: Enable/disable `High Probability Bottom` vertical line and choose color
Top Label: Enable/disable period top labels, choose color and size.
Bottom Label: Enable/disable period bottom labels, choose color and size.
Highlight Period Changes: Enable/disable vertical highlight at start of period
Larry Williams Valuation Index [tradeviZion]Larry Williams Valuation Index
Welcome to the Larry Williams Valuation Index by tradeviZion! This script is an interpretation of Larry Williams' famous WillVal (Valuation) Index, originally developed in 1990 to help traders determine whether a market or asset is overvalued or undervalued. We've extended it to support multiple securities and offer alerts for different valuation levels, helping you make more informed trading decisions.
What is the Valuation Index?
The Valuation Index measures how a security's current price compares to its historical price action. It helps identify whether the security is overvalued (priced too high), undervalued (priced too low), or in a normal range.
This version supports multiple securities and uses valuation parameters to help you assess the relative valuation of three securities simultaneously. It can help you determine the best times to enter (buy) or exit (sell) the market.
Key Features
Multi-Security Analysis: Analyze up to three securities simultaneously to get a broader view of market conditions.
Valuation Levels: Automatically calculate overvaluation and undervaluation levels or set manual levels for consistent analysis.
Custom Alerts: Create custom alerts when securities move between overvalued, undervalued, or normal ranges.
Customizable Table Display: Display a table with valuation values and their status on the chart.
Getting Started
Step 1: Adding the Script to Your Chart
First, add the Larry Williams Valuation Index script to your chart on TradingView. The script is designed to work with any timeframe, but for best results, use weekly or daily timeframes for a longer-term perspective.
Step 2: Configuring Securities
The script allows you to analyze up to three different securities :
Security 1 (Default: DXY)
Security 2 (Default: GC1!)
Security 3 (Default: ZB1!)
You can enable or disable each security individually.
Custom Timeframe Option: You have the option to select a custom timeframe for analysis. This allows you to see whether the security is overvalued or undervalued in lower or higher timeframes. Note that this feature is experimental and has not been extensively tested. Larry Williams originally used the weekly timeframe to determine if a stock was overvalued or undervalued. By default, the indicator compares the current price with the security based on the selected timeframe, except if you choose to use a custom timeframe.
Pro Tip : New users can start with the default securities to understand the concept before using other assets.
Step 3: Valuation Index Settings
Short EMA Length : This is the short-term average used for calculations. A lower value makes it more responsive to recent price changes.
Long EMA Length : This is the long-term average, used to smooth the valuation over time.
Valuation Length (Default: 156) : Represents approximately three years of daily bars (as recommended by Larry Williams).
How is the Valuation Index Calculated?
The valuation calculation is done using a method called WVI (WillVal Index), which compares the current price of a security to the price of another correlated security. Here’s a step-by-step explanation:
1. Data Collection: The script takes the closing price of the security you are analyzing and the closing price of the correlated security.
2. Ratio Calculation : The ratio of the two prices is calculated:
Price Ratio = (Price of your security) / (Price of correlated security) * 100.
This ratio helps determine how expensive or cheap your security is compared to the correlated one.
3. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) : The price ratio is used to calculate short-term and long-term EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages). EMAs are used to create smooth lines that represent the average price of a security over a specific period of time, with more weight given to recent data. By calculating both short-term and long-term EMAs, we can identify the trend direction and how the security is performing compared to its historical averages.
4. Valuation Index Calculation:
The Valuation Index is calculated as the difference between the short-term EMA and the long-term EMA. This difference helps to determine if the security is currently overvalued or undervalued:
A positive value indicates that the price is above its longer-term trend, suggesting potential overvaluation.
A negative value indicates that the price is below its longer-term trend, suggesting potential undervaluation.
5. Normalization:
To make the valuation easier to interpret, the calculated valuation index is then normalized using the highest and lowest values over the selected valuation length (e.g., 156 bars).
This normalization process converts the index into a percentage between 0 and 100, where higher values indicate overvaluation and lower values indicate undervaluation.
Step 4: Understanding Valuation Levels
The valuation levels indicate whether a security is currently undervalued, overvalued, or in a normal range.
Manual Levels : You can manually set the overvaluation and undervaluation thresholds (default is 85 for overvalued and 15 for undervalued).
Auto Levels : The script can automatically calculate these levels based on recent price action, allowing you to adapt to changing market conditions.
Auto Levels Calculation Explained:
The Auto Levels are calculated by taking the average of the valuation indices for all three securities (e.g., index1, index2, and index3).
The script then looks at the highest and lowest values of this average over a selected number of recent bars (e.g., 50 bars).
The overvaluation level is determined by taking the highest value and multiplying it by a multiplier (e.g., 5). Similarly, the undervaluation level is calculated using the lowest value and the multiplier.
These dynamic levels adjust according to recent price action, providing an adaptive approach to identifying overvalued and undervalued conditions.
Step 5: How to Use the Script to Make Trading Decisions
For new users, here's a step-by-step trading strategy you can use with the Valuation Index:
1. Identify Undervalued Opportunities
When two or more securities are in the undervalued range (below 15 for manual or below automatically calculated undervalue levels), wait for at least two of these securities to turn from undervalued to normal .
This transition indicates a potential buy opportunity .
2. Buying Signal
When at least two securities transition from undervalued to normal, you can consider buying the asset.
This indicates that the market may be recovering from undervalued conditions and could be moving into a growth phase.
3. Selling Signal
Exit when the price high closes below the EMA 21 (21-day exponential moving average).
Alternatively, if the valuation index reaches overvalued levels (above 85 manually or auto-calculated), wait for it to drop back to normal . This can be another point to exit the trade .
You can also use any other sell condition based on your r isk management strategy .
Alerts for Valuation Levels
The script includes alerts to notify you of changing market conditions:
To activate these alerts, follow these steps, referring to the provided screenshot with detailed steps:
1. Enable Alerts : Click on the settings gear icon on the script title in your chart. In the settings menu, scroll to the section labeled Alerts Settings .
Enable Alerts by checking the Enable Alerts box.
Set the Required Securities for Alert (default is 2 securities).
Choose the Alert Frequency : Selecting Once Per Bar Close will trigger alerts only at the close of each bar, ensuring you receive confirmed signals rather than potentially noisy intermediate signals.
2. Select Alert Type : Choose the type of alert you want to activate, such as Alert on Overvalued, Alert on Undervalued, Alert on Over to Normal , or Alert on Under to Normal .
3. Save Settings : Click OK to save your alert settings.
4. Add Alert on Indicator : Click the "..." (More button) next to the indicator name on the chart and select " Add alert on tradeviZion - WillVal ".
5. Create Alert : In the Create Alert window:
Set Condition to tradeviZion - WillVal .
Ensure Any alert() function call is selected.
Set the Alert Name and select your Expiration preferences.
6. Set Notification Preferences : Go to the Notifications tab and select how you want to receive notifications, such as via app notification, toast notification, email , or sound alert . Adjust these preferences to best suit your needs.
7. Click Create : Finally, click Create to activate the alert.
These alerts will help you stay informed about key market conditions and take action accordingly, ensuring you do not miss critical trading opportunities.
Understanding the Table Display
The script includes an interactive table on the chart to show the valuation status of each security:
Security : The name of the security being analyzed.
Value : The current valuation index value.
Status : Indicates whether the security is overvalued, undervalued , or in a normal range.
Color: Displays a color code for easy identification of status:
Red for overvalued.
Green for undervalued.
Other colors represent normal valuation levels.
Empowering Messages : Motivational messages are displayed to encourage disciplined trading. These messages will change periodically, helping keep a positive trading mindset.
Acknowledgment
This tool builds upon the foundational work of Larry Williams, who developed the WillVal (Valuation) Index concept. It also incorporates enhancements to extend multi-security analysis, valuation normalization, and advanced alerting features, providing a more versatile and powerful indicator. The Larry Williams Valuation Index [ tradeviZion ] helps traders make informed decisions by assessing overvalued and undervalued conditions for multiple securities simultaneously.
Note : Always practice proper risk management and thoroughly test the indicator to ensure it aligns with your trading strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Trade smarter with TradeVizion—unlock your trading potential today!
The Vet [TFO]In collaboration with @mickey1984 , "The Vet" was created to showcase various statistical measures of price.
The first core measurement utilizes the Defining Range (DR) concept on a weekly basis. For example, we might track the session from 09:30-10:30 on Mondays to get the DR high, DR low, IDR high, and IDR low. The DR high and low are the highest high and lowest low of the session, respectively, whereas the IDR high and low would be the highest candle body level (open or close) and lowest candle body level, respectively, during this window of time.
From this data, we use the IDR range (from IDR high to IDR low) to extrapolate several, custom projections of this range from its high and low so that we can collect data on how often these levels are hit, from the close of one DR session to the open of the next one.
This information is displayed in the Range Projection Table with a few main columns of information:
- The leftmost column indicates each level that is projected from the IDR range, where (+) indicates a projection above the range high, and (-) indicates a projection below the range low
- The "First Touch" column indicates how often price has reached these levels in the past at any point until the next weekly DR session
- The "Other Side Touch" column indicates how often price has reached a given level, then reversed to hit the opposing level of the same magnitude. For example, the above chart shows that if price hit the +1 projection, ~33% of instances also hit the -1 projection before the next weekly DR session. For this reason, the probabilities will be the same for projection levels of the same but opposite magnitude (+1 would be the same as -1, +3 would be the same as -3, etc.)
- The "Next Level Touch" column provides insight into how often price reaches the next greatest projection level. For example, in the above chart, the red box in the projection table is highlighting that once price hits the -2 projection, ~86% of instances reached the -3 projection before the next weekly DR session
- The last columns, "Within ADR" and "Within AWR" show if any of the projection levels are within the current Average Daily Range, or Average Weekly Range, respectively, which can both be enabled from the Average Range section
The next section, Distributions, primarily measures and displays the average price movements from specified intraday time windows. The option to Show Distribution Boxes will overlay a box showing each respective session's average range, while adjusting itself to encapsulate the price action of that session until the average range is met/exceeded. Users can choose to display the range average by Day of Week, or the Total average from all days. Values for average ranges can either be shown as point or percent values. We can also show a table to display this information about price's average ranges for each given session, and show labels displaying the current range vs its average.
The final section, Average Range, simply offers the ability to plot the Average Daily Range (ADR) and Average Weekly Range (AWR) of a specified length. An ADR of 10 for example would take the average of the last 10 days, from high to low, while an AWR of 10 would take the average of the last 10 weeks (if the current chart provides enough data to support this). Similarly, we can also show the Average Range Table to indicate what these ADR/AWR values are, what our current range is and how it compares to those values, as well as some simple statistics on how often these levels are hit. As an example, "Hit +/- ADR: 40%/35%" in this table would indicate that price has hit the upper ADR limit 40% of the time, and the lower limit 35% of the time, for the amount of data available on the current chart.
Price Action Smart Money Concepts [BigBeluga]THE SMART MONEY CONCEPTS Toolkit
The Smart Money Concepts [ BigBeluga ] is a comprehensive toolkit built around the principles of "smart money" behavior, which refers to the actions and strategies of institutional investors.
The Smart Money Concepts Toolkit brings together a suite of advanced indicators that are all interconnected and built around a unified concept: understanding and trading like institutional investors, or "smart money." These indicators are not just randomly chosen tools; they are features of a single overarching framework, which is why having them all in one place creates such a powerful system.
This all-in-one toolkit provides the user with a unique experience by automating most of the basic and advanced concepts on the chart, saving them time and improving their trading ideas.
Real-time market structure analysis simplifies complex trends by pinpointing key support, resistance, and breakout levels.
Advanced order block analysis leverages detailed volume data to pinpoint high-demand zones, revealing internal market sentiment and predicting potential reversals. This analysis utilizes bid/ask zones to provide supply/demand insights, empowering informed trading decisions.
Imbalance Concepts (FVG and Breakers) allows traders to identify potential market weaknesses and areas where price might be attracted to fill the gap, creating opportunities for entry and exit.
Swing failure patterns help traders identify potential entry points and rejection zones based on price swings.
Liquidity Concepts, our advanced liquidity algorithm, pinpoints high-impact events, allowing you to predict market shifts, strong price reactions, and potential stop-loss hunting zones. This gives traders an edge to make informed trading decisions based on liquidity dynamics.
🔵 FEATURES
The indicator has quite a lot of features that are provided below:
Swing market structure
Internal market structure
Mapping structure
Adjustable market structure
Strong/Weak H&L
Sweep
Volumetric Order block / Breakers
Fair Value Gaps / Breakers (multi-timeframe)
Swing Failure Patterns (multi-timeframe)
Deviation area
Equal H&L
Liquidity Prints
Buyside & Sellside
Sweep Area
Highs and Lows (multi-timeframe)
🔵 BASIC DEMONSTRATION OF ALL FEATURES
1. MARKET STRUCTURE
The preceding image illustrates the market structure functionality within the Smart Money Concepts indicator.
➤ Solid lines: These represent the core indicator's internal structure, forming the foundation for most other components. They visually depict the overall market direction and identify major reversal points marked by significant price movements (denoted as 'x').
➤ Internal Structure: These represent an alternative internal structure with the potential to drive more rapid market shifts. This is particularly relevant when a significant gap exists in the established swing structure, specifically between the Break of Structure (BOS) and the most recent Change of High/Low (CHoCH). Identifying these formations can offer opportunities for quicker entries and potential short-term reversals.
➤ Sweeps (x): These signify potential turning points in the market where liquidity is removed from the structure. This suggests a possible trend reversal and presents crucial entry opportunities. Sweeps are identified within both swing and internal structures, providing valuable insights for informed trading decisions.
➤ Mapping structure: A tool that automatically identifies and connects significant price highs and lows, creating a zig-zag pattern. It visualizes market structure, highlights trends, support/resistance levels, and potential breakouts. Helps traders quickly grasp price action patterns and make informed decisions.
➤ Color-coded candles based on market structure: These colors visually represent the underlying market structure, making it easier for traders to quickly identify trends.
➤ Extreme H&L: It visualizes market structure with extreme high and lows, which gives perspective for macro Market Structure.
2. VOLUMETRIC ORDER BLOCKS
Order blocks are specific areas on a financial chart where significant buying or selling activity has occurred. These are not just simple zones; they contain valuable information about market dynamics. Within each of these order blocks, volume bars represent the actual buying and selling activity that took place. These volume bars offer deeper insights into the strength of the order block by showing how much buying or selling power is concentrated in that specific zone.
Additionally, these order blocks can be transformed into Breaker Blocks. When an order block fails—meaning the price breaks through this zone without reversing—it becomes a breaker block. Breaker blocks are particularly useful for trading breakouts, as they signal that the market has shifted beyond a previously established zone, offering opportunities for traders to enter in the direction of the breakout.
Here's a breakdown:
➤ Bear Order Blocks (Red): These are zones where a lot of selling happened. Traders see these areas as places where sellers were strong, pushing the price down. When the price returns to these zones, it might face resistance and drop again.
➤ Bull Order Blocks (Green): These are zones where a lot of buying happened. Traders see these areas as places where buyers were strong, pushing the price up. When the price returns to these zones, it might find support and rise again.
These Order Blocks help traders identify potential areas for entering or exiting trades based on past market activity. The volume bars inside blocks show the amount of trading activity that occurred in these blocks, giving an idea of the strength of buying or selling pressure.
➤ Breaker Block: When an order block fails, meaning the price breaks through this zone without reversing, it becomes a breaker block. This indicates a significant shift in market liquidity and structure.
➤ A bearish breaker block occurs after a bullish order block fails. This typically happens when there's an upward trend, and a certain level that was expected to support the market's rise instead gives way, leading to a sharp decline. This decline indicates that sellers have overcome the buyers, absorbing liquidity and shifting the sentiment from bullish to bearish.
Conversely, a bullish breaker block is formed from the failure of a bearish order block. In a downtrend, when a level that was expected to act as resistance is breached, and the price shoots up, it signifies that buyers have taken control, overpowering the sellers.
3. FAIR VALUE GAPS:
A fair value gap (FVG), also referred to as an imbalance, is an essential concept in Smart Money trading. It highlights the supply and demand dynamics. This gap arises when there's a notable difference between the volume of buy and sell orders. FVGs can be found across various asset classes, including forex, commodities, stocks, and cryptocurrencies.
FVGs in this toolkit have the ability to detect raids of FVG which helps to identify potential price reversals.
Mitigation option helps to change from what source FVGs will be identified: Close, Wicks or AVG.
4. SWING FAILURE PATTERN (SFP):
The Swing Failure Pattern is a liquidity engineering pattern, generally used to fill large orders. This means, the SFP generally occurs when larger players push the price into liquidity pockets with the sole objective of filling their own positions.
SFP is a technical analysis tool designed to identify potential market reversals. It works by detecting instances where the price briefly breaks a previous high or low but fails to maintain that breakout, quickly reversing direction.
How it works:
Pattern Detection: The indicator scans for price movements that breach recent highs or lows.
Reversal Confirmation: If the price quickly reverses after breaching these levels, it's identified as an SFP.
➤ SFP Display:
Bullish SFP: Marked with a green symbol when price drops below a recent low before reversing upwards.
Bearish SFP: Marked with a red symbol when price rises above a recent high before reversing downwards.
➤ Deviation Levels: After detecting an SFP, the indicator projects white lines showing potential price deviation:
For bullish SFPs, the deviation line appears above the current price.
For bearish SFPs, the deviation line appears below the current price.
These deviation levels can serve as a potential trading opportunity or areas where the reversal might lose momentum.
With Volume Threshold and Filtering of SFP traders can adjust their trading style:
Volume Threshold: This setting allows traders to filter SFPs based on the volume of the reversal candle. By setting a higher volume threshold, traders can focus on potentially more significant reversals that are backed by higher trading activity.
SFP Filtering: This feature enables traders to filter SFP detection. It includes parameters such as:
5. LIQUIDITY CONCEPTS:
➤ Equal Lows (EQL) and Equal Highs (EQH) are important concepts in liquidity-based trading.
EQL: A series of two or more swing lows that occur at approximately the same price level.
EQH: A series of two or more swing highs that occur at approximately the same price level.
EQLs and EQHs are seen as potential liquidity pools where a large number of stop loss orders or limit orders may be clustered. They can be used as potential reverse points for trades.
This multi-period feature allows traders to select less and more significant EQL and EQH:
➤ Liquidity wicks:
Liquidity wicks are a minor representation of a stop-loss hunt during the retracement of a pivot point:
➤ Buy and Sell side liquidity:
The buy side liquidity represents a concentration of potential buy orders below the current price level. When price moves into this area, it can lead to increased buying pressure due to the execution of these orders.
The sell side liquidity indicates a pool of potential sell orders below the current price level. Price movement into this area can result in increased selling pressure as these orders are executed.
➤ Sweep Liquidation Zones:
Sweep Liquidation Zones are crucial for understanding market structure and potential future price movements. They provide insights into areas where significant market participants have been forced out of their positions, potentially setting up new trading opportunities.
🔵 USAGE & EXAMPLES
The core principle behind the success of this toolkit lies in identifying "confluence." This refers to the convergence of multiple trading indicators all signaling the same information at a specific point or area. By seeking such alignment, traders can significantly enhance the likelihood of successful trades.
MS + OBs
The chart illustrates a highly bullish setup where the price is rejecting from a bullish order block (POC), while simultaneously forming a bullish Swing Failure Pattern (SFP). This occurs after an internal structure change, marked by a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH). The price broke through a bearish order block, transforming it into a breaker block, further confirming the bullish momentum.
The combination of these elements—bullish order blocks, SFP, and CHoCH—creates a powerful bullish signal, reinforcing the potential for upward movement in the market.
SFP + Bear OB
This chart above displays a bearish setup with a high probability of a price move lower. The price is currently rejecting from a bear order block, which represents a key resistance area where significant selling pressure has previously occurred. A Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) has also formed near this bear order block, indicating that the price briefly attempted to break above a recent high but failed to sustain that upward movement. This failure suggests that buyers are losing momentum, and the market could be preparing for a move to the downside.
Additionally, we can toggle on the Deviation Area in the SFP section to highlight potential levels where price deviation might occur. These deviation areas represent zones where the price is likely to react after the Swing Failure Pattern:
BUY – SELL sides + EQL
The chart showcases a bullish setup with a high probability of price breaking out of the current sell-side resistance level. The market structure indicates a formation of Equal Lows (EQL), which often suggests a build-up of liquidity that could drive the price higher.
The presence of strong buy-side pressure (69%), indicated by the green zone at the bottom, reinforces this bullish outlook. This area represents a key support zone where buyers are outpacing sellers, providing the foundation for a potential upward breakout.
EQL + Bull ChoCh
This chart illustrates a potential bullish setup, driven by the formation of Equal Lows (EQL) followed by a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH). The presence of Equal Lows often signals a liquidity build-up, which can lead to a reversal when combined with additional bullish signals.
Liquidity grab + Bull ChoCh + FVGs
This chart demonstrates a strong bullish scenario, where several important market dynamics are at play. The price begins its upward momentum from Liquidity grab following a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), signaling the transition from a bearish phase to a bullish one.
As the price progresses, it performs liquidity grabs, which serve to gather the necessary fuel for further movement. These liquidity grabs often occur before significant price surges, as large market participants exploit these areas to accumulate positions before pushing the price higher.
The chart also highlights a market imbalance area, showing strong momentum as the price moves swiftly through this zone.
In this examples, we see how the combination of multiple “smart money” tools helps identify a potential trade opportunities. This is just one of the many scenarios that traders can spot using this toolkit. Other combinations—such as order blocks, liquidity grabs, fair value gaps, and Swing Failure Patterns (SFPs)—can also be layered on top of these concepts to further refine your trading strategy.
🔵 SETTINGS
Window: limit calculation period
Swing: limit drawing function
Mapping structure: show structural points
Algorithmic Logic: (Extreme-Adjusted) Use max high/low or pivot point calculation
Algorithmic loopback: pivot point look back
Show Last: Amount of Order block to display
Hide Overlap: hide overlapping order blocks
Construction: Size of the order blocks
Fair value gaps: Choose between normal FVG or Breaker FVG
Mitigation: (close - wick - avg) point to mitigate the order block/imbalance
SFP lookback: find a higher / lower point to improve accuracy
Threshold: remove less relevant SFP
Equal H&L: (short-mid-long term) display longer term
Liquidity Prints: Shows wicks of candles where liquidity was grabbed
Sweep Area: Identify Sweep Liquidation areas
By combining these indicators in one toolkit, traders are equipped with a comprehensive suite of tools that address every angle of the Smart Money Concept. Instead of relying on disparate tools spread across various platforms, having them integrated into a single, cohesive system allows traders to easily see confluence and make more informed trading decisions.
Momentum Alligator 4h Bitcoin StrategyOverview
The Momentum Alligator 4h Bitcoin Strategy is a trend-following trading system that operates on dual time frames. It utilizes the 1D Williams Alligator indicator to identify the prevailing major price trend and seeks trading opportunities on the 4-hour (4h) time frame when the momentum is turning up. The strategy is designed to close trades if the trend fails to develop or holding position if price continues increasing without any significant correction. Note that this strategy is specifically tailored for the 4-hour time frame.
Unique Features
2-layers market noise filtering system: Trades are only initiated in the direction of the 1D trend, determined by the Williams Alligator indicator. This higher time frame confirmation filters out minor trade signals, focusing on more substantial opportunities. At the same time, strategy has additional filter on 4h time frame with Awesome Oscillator which is showing the current price momentum.
Flexible Risk Management: The strategy exclusively opens long positions, resulting in fewer trades during bear markets. It incorporates a dynamic stop-loss mechanism, which can either follow the jaw line of the 4h Alligator or a user-defined fixed stop-loss. This flexibility helps manage risk and avoid non-trending markets.
Methodology
The strategy initiates a long position when the d-line of Stochastic RSI crosses up it's k-line. It means that there is a high probability that price momentum reversed from down to up. To avoid overtrading in potentially choppy markets, it skips the next two trades following a winning trade, anticipating sideways movement after a significant price surge.
This strategy has two layers trades filtering system: 4h and 1D time frames. The first one is awesome oscillator. It shall be increasing and value has to be higher than it's 5-period SMA. This is an additional confirmation that long trade is opened in the direction of the current momentum. As it was mentioned above, all entry signals are validated against the 1D Williams Alligator indicator. A trade is only opened if the price is above all three lines of the 1D Alligator, ensuring alignment with the major trend.
A trade is closed if the price hits the 4h jaw line of the Alligator or reaches the user-defined stop-loss level.
Risk Management
The strategy employs a combined approach to risk management:
It allows positions to ride the trend as long as the price continues to move favorably, aiming to capture significant price movements. It features a user-defined stop-loss parameter to mitigate risks based on individual risk tolerance. By default, this stop-loss is set to a 2% drop from the entry point, but it can be adjusted according to the trader's preferences.
Justification of Methodology
This strategy leverages Stochastic RSI on 4h time frame to open long trade when momentum started reversing to the upside. On the one hand, Stochastic RSI is one of the most sensitive indicator, which allows to react fast on the potential trend reversal. On the other hand, this indicator can be too sensitive and provide a lot of false trend changing signals. To eliminate this weakness we use two-layers trades filtering system.
The first layer is the 4h Awesome oscillator. This is less sensitive momentum indicator. Usually it starts increasing when price has already passed significant distance from the actual reversal point. The strategy opens long trade only is Awesome oscillator is increasing and above it's 5-period SMA. This approach increases the probability to filter the false signals during the choppy market or if the reversal is false.
The second layer filter is the Williams Alligator indicator on 1D time frame. The 1D Alligator serves as a filter for identifying the primary trend and increases probability to avoid the trades with low potential because trading against major trend usually is more risky. It's much better to catch the trend continuation than local bounce.
Last but not least feature of this strategy is close trades condition. It uses the flexible approach. First of all, user can set up the fixed stop-loss according to his own risk-tolerance, by default this value is 2% of price movement. It restricts the potential loss at the moment when trade has just been opened. Moreover strategy utilizes the 4h Williams Alligator's jaw line to exit the trade. If price fell below it trade is closed. This approach helps to not keep open trade if trend is not developing and hold it if price continues going up.
Backtest Results:
Operating window: Date range of backtests is 2021.01.01 - 2024.05.01. It is chosen to let the strategy to close all opened positions.
Commission and Slippage: Includes a standard Binance commission of 0.1% and accounts for possible slippage over 5 ticks.
Initial capital: 10000 USDT
Percent of capital used in every trade: 50%
Maximum Single Position Loss: -3.04%
Maximum Single Profit: +29.67%
Net Profit: +6228.01 USDT (+62.28%)
Total Trades: 118 (24.58% win rate)
Profit Factor: 1.71
Maximum Accumulated Loss: 1527.69 USDT (-11.52%)
Average Profit per Trade: 52.78 USDT (+0.89%)
Average Trade Duration: 60 hours
These results are obtained with realistic parameters representing trading conditions observed at major exchanges such as Binance and with realistic trading portfolio usage parameters.
How to Use:
Add the script to favorites for easy access.
Apply to the 4h timeframe desired chart (optimal performance observed on the BTC/USDT).
Configure settings using the dropdown choice list in the built-in menu.
Set up alerts to automate strategy positions through web hook with the text: {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrex commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test strategies in a simulated environment before live implementation
AI Momentum [YinYang]Overview:
AI Momentum is a kernel function based momentum Indicator. It uses Rational Quadratics to help smooth out the Moving Averages, this may give them a more accurate result. This Indicator has 2 main uses, first it displays ‘Zones’ that help you visualize the potential movement areas and when the price is out of bounds (Overvalued or Undervalued). Secondly it creates signals that display the momentum of the current trend.
The Zones are composed of the Highest Highs and Lowest lows turned into a Rational Quadratic over varying lengths. These create our Rational High and Low zones. There is however a second zone. The second zone is composed of the avg of the Inner High and Inner Low zones (yellow line) and the Rational Quadratic of the current Close. This helps to create a second zone that is within the High and Low bounds that may represent momentum changes within these zones. When the Rationalized Close crosses above the High and Low Zone Average it may signify a bullish momentum change and vice versa when it crosses below.
There are 3 different signals created to display momentum:
Bullish and Bearish Momentum. These signals display when there is current bullish or bearish momentum happening within the trend. When the momentum changes there will likely be a lull where there are neither Bullish or Bearish momentum signals. These signals may be useful to help visualize when the momentum has started and stopped for both the bulls and the bears. Bullish Momentum is calculated by checking if the Rational Quadratic Close > Rational Quadratic of the Highest OHLC4 smoothed over a VWMA. The Bearish Momentum is calculated by checking the opposite.
Overly Bullish and Bearish Momentum. These signals occur when the bar has Bullish or Bearish Momentum and also has an Rationalized RSI greater or less than a certain level. Bullish is >= 57 and Bearish is <= 43. There is also the option to ‘Factor Volume’ into these signals. This means, the Overly Bullish and Bearish Signals will only occur when the Rationalized Volume > VWMA Rationalized Volume as well as the previously mentioned factors above. This can be useful for removing ‘clutter’ as volume may dictate when these momentum changes will occur, but it can also remove some of the useful signals and you may miss the swing too if the volume just was low. Overly Bullish and Bearish Momentum may dictate when a momentum change will occur. Remember, they are OVERLY Bullish and Bearish, meaning there is a chance a correction may occur around these signals.
Bull and Bear Crosses. These signals occur when the Rationalized Close crosses the Gaussian Close that is 2 bars back. These signals may show when there is a strong change in momentum, but be careful as more often than not they’re predicting that the momentum may change in the opposite direction.
Tutorial:
As we can see in the example above, generally what happens is we get the regular Bullish or Bearish momentum, followed by the Rationalized Close crossing the Zone average and finally the Overly Bullish or Bearish signals. This is normally the order of operations but isn’t always how it happens as sometimes momentum changes don’t make it that far; also the Rationalized Close and Zone Average don’t follow any of the same math as the Signals which can result in differing appearances. The Bull and Bear Crosses are also quite sporadic in appearance and don’t generally follow any sort of order of operations. However, they may occur as a Predictor between Bullish and Bearish momentum, signifying the beginning of the momentum change.
The Bull and Bear crosses may be a Predictor of momentum change. They generally happen when there is no Bullish or Bearish momentum happening; and this helps to add strength to their prediction. When they occur during momentum (orange circle) there is a less likely chance that it will happen, and may instead signify the exact opposite; it may help predict a large spike in momentum in the direction of the Bullish or Bearish momentum. In the case of the orange circle, there is currently Bearish Momentum and therefore the Bull Cross may help predict a large momentum movement is about to occur in favor of the Bears.
We have disabled signals here to properly display and talk about the zones. As you can see, Rationalizing the Highest Highs and Lowest Lows over 2 different lengths creates inner and outer bounds that help to predict where parabolic movement and momentum may move to. Our Inner and Outer zones are great for seeing potential Support and Resistance locations.
The secondary zone, which can cross over and change from Green to Red is also a very important zone. Let's zoom in and talk about it specifically.
The Middle Zone Crosses may help deduce where parabolic movement and strong momentum changes may occur. Generally what may happen is when the cross occurs, you will see parabolic movement to the High / Low zones. This may be the Inner zone but can sometimes be the outer zone too. The hard part is sometimes it can be a Fakeout, like displayed with the Blue Circle. The Cross doesn’t mean it may move to the opposing side, sometimes it may just be predicting Parabolic movement in a general sense.
When we turn the Momentum Signals back on, we can see where the Fakeout occurred that it not only almost hit the Inner Low Zone but it also exhibited 2 Overly Bearish Signals. Remember, Overly bearish signals mean a momentum change in favor of the Bulls may occur soon and overly Bullish signals mean a momentum change in favor of the Bears may occur soon.
You may be wondering, well what does “may occur soon” mean and how do we tell?
The purpose of the momentum signals is not only to let you know when Momentum has occurred and when it is still prevalent. It also matters A LOT when it has STOPPED!
In this example above, we look at when the Overly Bullish and Bearish Momentum has STOPPED. As you can see, when the Overly Bullish or Bearish Momentum stopped may be a strong predictor of potential momentum change in the opposing direction.
We will conclude our Tutorial here, hopefully this Indicator has been helpful for showing you where momentum is occurring and help predict how far it may move. We have been dabbling with and are planning on releasing a Strategy based on this Indicator shortly.
Settings:
1. Momentum:
Show Signals: Sometimes it can be difficult to visualize the zones with signals enabled.
Factor Volume: Factor Volume only applies to Overly Bullish and Bearish Signals. It's when the Volume is > VWMA Volume over the Smoothing Length.
Zone Inside Length: The Zone Inside is the Inner zone of the High and Low. This is the length used to create it.
Zone Outside Length: The Zone Outside is the Outer zone of the High and Low. This is the length used to create it.
Smoothing length: Smoothing length is the length used to smooth out our Bullish and Bearish signals, along with our Overly Bullish and Overly Bearish Signals.
2. Kernel Settings:
Lookback Window: The number of bars used for the estimation. This is a sliding value that represents the most recent historical bars. Recommended range: 3-50.
Relative Weighting: Relative weighting of time frames. As this value approaches zero, the longer time frames will exert more influence on the estimation. As this value approaches infinity, the behavior of the Rational Quadratic Kernel will become identical to the Gaussian kernel. Recommended range: 0.25-25.
Start Regression at Bar: Bar index on which to start regression. The first bars of a chart are often highly volatile, and omission of these initial bars often leads to a better overall fit. Recommended range: 5-25.
If you have any questions, comments, ideas or concerns please don't hesitate to contact us.
HAPPY TRADING!
Value At RiskThe Value at Risk Channel (VaR Channel) is a trading indicator designed to assist traders in managing their risk exposure effectively. By allowing users to select a specific time period and a probability value, this indicator generates upper and lower limits that the price might potentially attain within the chosen timeframe and probability range.
CONCEPTS
This indicator employs the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) calculation, a crucial metric in risk management. VaR quantifies the potential financial loss within a position, portfolio, or company over a defined time period. Financial institutions like banks and investment firms use VaR to estimate the extent and likelihood of potential losses in their portfolios.
The "historical method" is utilized to compute VaR within the indicator. This method analyzes the historical performance of returns and constructs a histogram representing the statistical distribution of past returns. Assuming returns adhere to a normal distribution, probabilities are assigned to different return values based on their position in the distribution percentile.
HOW TO USE
Suppose you wish to plot upper and lower price limits for a 4-hour period with a 5% probability. Access the indicator's Settings tab and set the Timeframe parameter to "4 hours" while configuring the Probability parameter to 5.0.
The indicator serves as a tool to determine appropriate Stop-Loss levels triggering with low probability. Additionally, it helps gauge the likelihood of triggering such levels.
Likewise, you can assess the probability of your desired Take-Profit level being reached within a specified time frame. For instance, if you anticipate your target to be achieved within a week, set the Timeframe parameter to "1 week" and adjust the Probability parameter to align the VaR channel's limits with your Take-Profit level. The resulting Probability parameter value reflects the likelihood of your target being met within the expected time frame.
This indicator proves valuable for evaluating and managing risk, as well as refining trading strategies. If you discover other applications for this indicator, feel free to share them in the comments!
SETTINGS
Timeframe: Designates the time period within which the price might touch the VaR channel's upper or lower boundary, considering the specified Probability parameter.
Probability: Defines the likelihood of the price reaching the VaR channel's upper or lower limit during the timeframe determined by the Timeframe parameter.
Window: Establishes the historical period (number of past bars) utilized for VaR calculation.
Fair value bands / quantifytools— Overview
Fair value bands, like other band tools, depict dynamic points in price where price behaviour is normal or abnormal, i.e. trading at/around mean (price at fair value) or deviating from mean (price outside fair value). Unlike constantly readjusting standard deviation based bands, fair value bands are designed to be smooth and constant, based on typical historical deviations. The script calculates pivots that take place above/below fair value basis and forms median deviation bands based on this information. These points are then multiplied up to 3, representing more extreme deviations.
By default, the script uses OHLC4 and SMA 20 as basis for the bands. Users can form their preferred fair value basis using following options:
Price source
- Standard OHLC values
- HL2 (High + low / 2)
- OHLC4 (Open + high + low + close / 4)
- HLC3 (High + low + close / 3)
- HLCC4 (High + low + close + close / 4)
Smoothing
- SMA
- EMA
- HMA
- RMA
- WMA
- VWMA
- Median
Once fair value basis is established, some additional customization options can be employed:
Trend mode
Direction based
Cross based
Trend modes affect fair value basis color that indicates trend direction. Direction based trend considers only the direction of the defined fair value basis, i.e. pointing up is considered an uptrend, vice versa for downtrend. Cross based trends activate when selected source (same options as price source) crosses fair value basis. These sources can be set individually for uptrend/downtrend cross conditions. By default, the script uses cross based trend mode with low and high as sources.
Cross based (downtrend not triggered) vs. direction based (downtrend triggered):
Threshold band
Threshold band is calculated using typical deviations when price is trading at fair value basis. In other words, a little bit of "wiggle room" is added around the mean based on expected deviation. This feature is useful for cross based trends, as it allows filtering insignificant crosses that are more likely just noise. By default, threshold band is calculated based on 1x median deviation from mean. Users can increase/decrease threshold band width via input menu for more/less noise filtering, e.g. 2x threshold band width would require price to cross wiggle room that is 2x wider than typical, 0x erases threshold band altogether.
Deviation bands
Width of deviation bands by default is based on 1x median deviations and can be increased/decreased in a similar manner to threshold bands.
Each combination of customization options produces varying behaviour in the bands. To measure the behaviour and finding fairest representation of fair and unfair value, some data is gathered.
— Fair value metrics
Space between each band is considered a lot, named +3, +2, +1, -1, -2, -3. For each lot, time spent and volume relative to volume moving average (SMA 20) is recorded each time price is trading in a given lot:
Depending on the asset, timeframe and chosen fair value basis, shape of the distributions vary. However, practically always time is distributed in a normal bell curve shape, being highest at lots +1 to -1, gradually decreasing the further price is from the mean. This is hardly surprising, but it allows accurately determining dynamic areas of normal and abnormal price behaviour (i.e. low risk area between +1 and -1, high risk area between +-2 to +-3). Volume on the other hand is typically distributed the other way around, being lowest at lots +1 to -1 and highest at +-2 to +-3. When time and volume are distributed like so, we can conclude that 1) price being outside fair value is a rare event and 2) the more price is outside fair value, the more anomaly behaviour in volume we tend to find.
Viewing metric calculations
Metric calculation highlights can be enabled from the input menu, resulting in a lot based coloring and visibility of each lot counter (time, cumulative relative volume and average relative volume) in data window:
— Alerts
Available alerts are the following:
Individual
- High crossing deviation band (bands +1 to +3 )
- Low crossing deviation band (bands -1 to -3 )
- Low at threshold band in an uptrend
- High at threshold band in a downtrend
- New uptrend
- New downtrend
Grouped
- New uptrend or downtrend
- Deviation band cross (+1 or -1)
- Deviation band cross (+2 or -2)
- Deviation band cross (+3 or -3)
— Practical guide
Example #1 : Risk on/risk off trend following
Ideal trend stays inside fair value and provides sufficient cool offs between the moves. When this is the case, fair value bands can be used for sensible entry/exit levels within the trend.
Example #2 : Mean reversions
When price shows exuberance into an extreme deviation, followed by a stall and signs of exhaustion (wicks), an opportunity for mean reversion emerges. The higher the deviation, the more volatility in the move, the more signalling of exhaustion, the better.
Example #3 : Tweaking bands for desired behaviour
The faster the length of fair value basis, the more momentum price needs to hit extreme deviation levels, as bands too are moving faster alongside price. Decreasing fair value basis length typically leads to more quick and aggressive deviations and less steady trends outside fair value.
pricing_tableThis script helps you evaluate the fair value of an option. It poses the question "if I bought or sold an option under these circumstances in the past, would it have expired in the money, or worthless? What would be its expected value, at expiration, if I opened a position at N standard deviations, given the volatility forecast, with M days to expiration at the close of every previous trading day?"
The default (and only) "hv" volatility forecast is based on the assumption that today's volatility will hold for the next M days.
To use this script, only one step is mandatory. You must first select days to expiration. The script will not do anything until this value is changed from the default (-1). These should be CALENDAR days. The script will convert to these to business days for forecasting and valuation, as trading in most contracts occurs over ~250 business days per year.
Adjust any other variables as desired:
model: the volatility forecasting model
window: the number of periods for a lagged model (e.g. hv)
filter: a filter to remove forecasts from the sample
filter type: "none" (do not use the filter), "less than" (keep forecasts when filter < volatility), "greater than" (keep forecasts when filter > volatility)
filter value: a whole number percentage. see example below
discount rate: to discount the expected value to present value
precision: number of decimals in output
trim outliers: omit upper N % of (generally itm) contracts
The theoretical values are based on history. For example, suppose days to expiration is 30. On every bar, the 30 days ago N deviation forecast value is compared to the present price. If the price is above the forecast value, the contract has expired in the money; otherwise, it has expired worthless. The theoretical value is the average of every such sample. The itm probabilities are calculated the same way.
The default (and only) volatility model is a 20 period EWMA derived historical (realized) volatility. Feel free to extend the script by adding your own.
The filter parameters can be used to remove some forecasts from the sample.
Example A:
filter:
filter type: none
filter value:
Default: the filter is not used; all forecasts are included in the the sample.
Example B:
filter: model
filter type: less than
filter value: 50
If the model is "hv", this will remove all forecasts when the historical volatility is greater than fifty.
Example C:
filter: rank
filter type: greater than
filter value: 75
If the model volatility is in the top 25% of the previous year's range, the forecast will be included in the sample apart from "model" there are some common volatility indexes to choose from, such as Nasdaq (VXN), crude oil (OVX), emerging markets (VXFXI), S&P; (VIX) etc.
Refer to the middle-right table to see the current forecast value, its rank among the last 252 days, and the number of business days until
expiration.
NOTE: This script is meant for the daily chart only.
RSI-VWAP Indicator %█ OVERALL
Simple and effective script that, as you already know, uses vwap as source of the rsi, and with good results as long as the market has no long-term downtrend.
RsiVwap = rsi (vwap (close), Length)
The default settings are for BTC in a 30 minute time frame. For other pairs and time frames you just have to play with the settings.
█ FEATURES
• The option to start trading from a certain date has been added.
• To make the profit more progressive, a percentage of your equity is used for entries and a percentage of your position is used for closings.
• The option to trade in Spot mode has been added, since, for the TradingView backtest, the money is infinite and if you do not limit it somehow,
it would offer you much better profits than the live trading.
QuantityOnLong = Spot ? (EquityPercent / 100) * ((strategy.equity / close) - strategy.position_size) : (EquityPercent / 100) * (strategy.equity / close)
• The option to stop the system when the drawdown exceeds the fixed limit has been added.
Drawdown, as you already know, is a very important measure of risk in trading systems.
The maximum drawdown will tell us what the maximum loss of a trading system has been during a period. This maximum loss is determined by:
strategy.risk.max_drawdown(Risk, strategy.percent_of_equity)
• Leverage plotted on labels added.
█ ALERTS
To enjoy the benefits of automatic trading, TradingView alerts can be used as direct buy-sell orders on spot, or long-close orders with leverage.
Currently there are Chrome extensions that act as a bridge between TradingView and your Exchange or Broker.
This is an example of syntax for this type of extensions. Copy and paste a message like this into the alert window:
{{strategy.order.action}} @ {{strategy.order.price}} | e = {{exchange}} a = account s = {{ticker}} b = {{strategy.order.action}} {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
█ NOTE
Certain Risks of Live Algorithmic Trading You Should Know:
• Backtesting cannot assure actual results.
• The relevant market might fail or behave unexpectedly.
• Your broker may experience failures in its infrastructure, fail to execute your orders in a correct or timely fashion or reject your orders.
• The system you use for generating trading orders, communicating those orders to your broker, and receiving queries and trading results from your broker may fail.
• Time lag at various point in live trading might cause unexpected behavior.
• The systems of third parties in addition to those of the provider from which we obtain various services, your broker, and the applicable securities market may fail or malfunction.
█ THANKS
Thanks to TradingView, its Pine code, its community and especially those Pine wizards who post their ideas that helps us to learn.
If the world is heading toward a equitable new world economic order, let's get rich first ...
Happy trading!
Rolling midpointsThe script made for research purposes which plots these statistics of a given window: Mid-range (max + min)/2, Lower midpoint (mid-range + min)/2, and Higher midpoint (mid-range + max)/2.
This could be interesting when checking periods with sample size <= 0, or checking distros with srs kurtosis values.
Mean & median are also there.
Percentage Change Comparison [BVCC]This script allows you to input 2 different coins and plot % changes against each other.
Look Back is adjustable to account for different time frame windows. Default is 1, so each line will be graphed on a 1:1 ratio with the candle period selected on the chart. raising this number to 24 will plot the change across every 24 candles and so on. It's pretty interesting to move the input dialogue window out of the way and change this number, watching how the % gain comparisons change in real time.
Default coins to compare are set to BTCUSD and ETHUSD @ coinbase.
GMO (Gyroscopic Momentum Oscillator) GMO
Overview
This indicator fuses multiple advanced concepts to give traders a comprehensive view of market momentum, volatility, and potential turning points. It leverages the Gyroscopic Momentum Oscillator (GMO) foundation and layers on IQR-based bands, dynamic ATR-adjusted OB/OS levels, torque filtering, and divergence detection. The outcome is a versatile tool that can assist in identifying both short-term squeezes and long-term reversal zones while detecting subtle shifts in momentum acceleration.
Key Components:
Gyroscopic Momentum Oscillator (GMO) – A physics-inspired metric capturing trend stability and momentum by treating price dynamics as “angle,” “angular velocity,” and “inertia.”
IQR Bands – Highlight statistically typical oscillation ranges, providing insight into short-term squeezes and potential near-term trend shifts.
ATR-Adjusted OB/OS Levels – Dynamic thresholds for overbought/oversold conditions, adapting to volatility, aiding in identifying long-term potential reversal zones.
Torque Filtering & Scaling – Smooths and thresholds torque (the rate of change of momentum) and visually scales it for clarity, indicating sudden force changes that may precede volatility adjustments.
Divergence Detection – Highlights potential reversal cues by comparing oscillator swings against price swings, revealing regular and hidden bullish/bearish divergences.
Conceptual Insights
IQR Bands (Short-Term Squeeze & Trend Direction):
Short-Term Momentum and Squeeze: The IQR (Interquartile Range) bands show where the oscillator tends to “live” statistically. When the GMO line hovers within compressed IQR bands, it can signal a momentum squeeze phase. Exiting these tight ranges often correlates with short-term breakout opportunities.
Trend Reversals: If the oscillator pushes beyond these IQR ranges, it may indicate an emerging short-term trend change. Traders can watch for GMO escaping the IQR “comfort zone” to anticipate a new directional move.
Dynamic OB/OS Levels (Long-Term Reversal Zones):
ATR-Based Adaptive Thresholds: Instead of static overbought/oversold lines, this tool uses ATR to adjust OB/OS boundaries. In calm markets, these lines remain closer to ±90. As volatility rises, they approach ±100, reflecting greater permissible swings.
Long-Term Trend Reversal Potential: If GMO hits these dynamically adjusted OB/OS extremes, it suggests conditions ripe for possible long-term trend reversals. Traders seeking major inflection points may find these adaptive levels more reliable than fixed thresholds.
Torque (Sudden Force & Directional Shifts):
Momentum Acceleration Insight: Torque represents the second derivative of momentum, highlighting how quickly momentum is changing. High positive torque suggests a rapidly strengthening bullish force, while high negative torque warns of sudden bearish pressure.
Early Warning & Stability/Volatility Adjustments: By monitoring torque spikes, traders can anticipate momentum shifts before price fully confirms them. This can signal imminent changes in stability or increased volatility phases.
Indicator Parameters and Usage
GMO-Related Inputs:
lenPivot (Default 100): Length for calculating the pivot line (slow market axis).
lenSmoothAngle (Default 200): Smooths the angle measure, reducing noise.
lenATR (Default 14): ATR period for scaling factor, linking price changes to volatility.
useVolatility (Default true): If true, volatility (ATR) influences inertia, adjusting momentum calculations.
useVolume (Default false): If true, volume affects inertia, adding a liquidity dimension to momentum.
lenVolSmoothing (Default 50): Smooths volume calculations if useVolume is enabled.
lenMomentumSmooth (Default 20): EMA smoothing of GMO for a cleaner oscillator line.
normalizeRange (Default true): Normalizes GMO to a fixed range for consistent interpretation.
lenNorm (Default 100): Length for normalization window, ensuring GMO’s scale adapts to recent extremes.
IQR Bands Settings:
iqrLength (Default 14): Period to compute the oscillator’s statistical IQR.
iqrMult (Default 1.5): Multiplier to define the upper and lower IQR-based bands.
ATR-Adjusted OB/OS Settings:
baseOBLevel (Fixed at 90) and baseOSLevel (Fixed at 90): Base lines for OB/OS.
atrPeriodForOBOS (Default 50): ATR length for adjusting OB/OS thresholds dynamically.
atrScaling (Default 0.2): Controls how strongly volatility affects OB/OS lines.
Torque Filtering & Visualization:
torqueSmoothLength (Default 10): EMA length to smooth raw torque values.
atrPeriodForTorque (Default 14): ATR period to determine torque threshold.
atrTorqueScaling (Default 0.5): Scales ATR for determining torque’s “significant” threshold.
torqueScaleFactor (Default 10.0): Multiplies the torque values for better visual prominence on the chart.
Divergence Inputs:
showDivergences (Default true): Toggles divergence signals.
lbR, lbL (Defaults 5): Pivot lookback periods to identify swing highs and lows.
rangeUpper, rangeLower: Bar constraints to validate potential divergences.
plotBull, plotHiddenBull, plotBear, plotHiddenBear: Toggles for each divergence type.
Visual Elements on the Chart
GMO Line (Blue) & Zero Line (Gray):
GMO line oscillates around zero. Positive territory hints bullish momentum, negative suggests bearish.
IQR Bands (Teal Lines & Yellow Fill):
Upper/lower bands form a statistical “normal range” for GMO. The median line (purple) provides a central reference. Contraction near these bands indicates a short-term squeeze, expansions beyond them can signal emerging short-term trend changes.
Dynamic OB/OS (Red & Green Lines):
Red line near +90 to +100: Overbought zone (dynamic).
Green line near -90 to -100: Oversold zone (dynamic).
Movement into these zones may mark significant, longer-term reversal potential.
Torque Histogram (Colored Bars):
Plotted below GMO. Green bars = torque above positive threshold (bullish acceleration).
Red bars = torque below negative threshold (bearish acceleration).
Gray bars = neutral range.
This provides early warnings of momentum shifts before price responds fully.
Precession (Orange Line):
Scaled for visibility, adds context to long-term angular shifts in the oscillator.
Divergence Signals (Shapes):
Circles and offset lines highlight regular or hidden bullish/bearish divergences, offering potential reversal signals.
Practical Interpretation & Strategy
Short-Term Opportunities (IQR Focus):
If GMO compresses within IQR bands, the market might be “winding up.” A break above/below these bands can signal a short-term trade opportunity.
Long-Term Reversal Zones (Dynamic OB/OS):
When GMO approaches these dynamically adjusted extremes, conditions may be ripe for a major trend shift. This is particularly useful for swing or position traders looking for significant turnarounds.
Monitoring Torque for Acceleration Cues:
Torque spikes can precede price action, serving as an early catalyst signal. If torque turns strongly positive, anticipate bullish acceleration; strongly negative torque may warn of upcoming bearish pressure.
Confirm with Divergences:
Divergences between price and GMO reinforce potential reversal or continuation signals identified by IQR, OB/OS, or torque. Use them to increase confidence in setups.
Tips and Best Practices
Combine with Price & Volume Action:
While the indicator is powerful, always confirm signals with actual price structure, volume patterns, or other trend-following tools.
Adjust Lengths & Periods as Needed:
Shorter lengths = more responsiveness but more noise. Longer lengths = smoother signals but greater lag. Tune parameters to match your trading style and timeframe.
Use ATR and Volume Settings Wisely:
If markets are highly volatile, consider useVolatility to refine momentum readings. If liquidity is key, enable useVolume.
Scaling Torque:
If torque bars are hard to read, increase torqueScaleFactor further. The scaling doesn’t affect logic—only visibility.
Conclusion
The “GMO + IQR Bands + ATR-Adjusted OB/OS + Torque Filtering (Scaled)” indicator presents a holistic framework for understanding market momentum across multiple timescales and conditions. By interpreting short-term squeezes via IQR bands, long-term reversal zones via adaptive OB/OS, and subtle acceleration changes through torque, traders can gain advanced insights into when to anticipate breakouts, manage risk around potential reversals, and fine-tune timing for entries and exits.
This integrated approach helps navigate complex market dynamics, making it a valuable addition to any technical analysis toolkit.
base16Library "base16"
Base16 Syntax Theme Collection. dark/light Pairs placed into 2 matched groups.
included is tool for assembling your own themes, as well as all themes String names
to create your own Input menus / add to your own theme matrix, and theme selectors
addToMatrix(_mtx, _title, _choices, _theme)
To create a theme matrix with string index, use a color matrix global
add theme name to string array of theme titles
and last input a theme from above, or create your own theme arrays.
Parameters:
_mtx : (color ) matrix for storage
_title : (string ) Name of theme being added
_choices : (string ) name index
_theme : (color ) colors being added
Returns: void
addToMatrix(_mtx, _theme)
Add theme to color matrix Non-indexed
Parameters:
_mtx : (color ) matrix for storage
_theme : (color ) colors being added
dark()
Dark Themne Selection (With light Equivalent in same location)
Returns: Color matrix of dark themes
light()
light Themne Selection (With dark Equivalent in same location)
Returns: Color matrix of light themes
selectTheme(_mtx, _themes, _theme)
Get a Theme By Name
Parameters:
_mtx : (Matrix color) Name of Theme
_themes : (Array string) Array with Names of Themes
_theme : (string ) Name of Theme to select
selectTheme(_mtx, _theme)
Get a Theme By Number
Parameters:
_mtx : (Matrix color) Name of Theme
_theme : (int ) Number of Theme to select
/// all themes included:
3024
apathy
apprentice
ashes
atelier_cave_light
atelier_cave
atelier_dune_light
atelier_dune
atelier_estuary_light
atelier_estuary
atelier_forest_light
atelier_forest
atelier_heath_light
atelier_heath
atelier_lakeside_light
atelier_lakeside
atelier_plateau_light
atelier_plateau
atelier_savanna_light
atelier_savanna
atelier_seaside_light
atelier_seaside
atelier_sulphurpool_light
atelier_sulphurpool
atlas
ayu_dark
ayu_light
ayu_mirage
bespin
black_metal_bathory
black_metal_burzum
black_metal_dark_funeral
black_metal_gorgoroth
black_metal_immortal
black_metal_khold
black_metal_marduk
black_metal_mayhem
black_metal_nile
black_metal_venom
black_metal
blue_forest
blueish
brewer
bright
brogrammer
brush_trees_dark
brush_trees
catppuccin
chalk
circus
classic_dark
classic_light
codeschool
clrs
cupcake
cupertino
da_one_black
da_one_gray
da_one_ocean
da_one_paper
da_one_sea
da_one_white
danqing_light
danqing
darcula
darkmoss
darktooth
dark_violet
decaf
default_dark
default_light
dirtysea
dracula
edge_dark
edge_light
eighties
embers
emil
equilibrium_dark
equilibrium_gray_dark
equilibrium_gray_light
equilibrium_light
espresso
eva_dim
eva
everforest
flat
framer
fruit_soda
gigavolt
github
google_dark
google_light
gotham
grayscale_dark
grayscale_light
green_screen
gruber
gruvbox_dark_hard
gruvbox_dark_medium
gruvbox_dark_pale
gruvbox_dark_soft
gruvbox_light_hard
gruvbox_light_medium
gruvbox_light_soft
gruvbox_material_dark_hard
gruvbox_material_dark_medium
gruvbox_material_dark_soft
gruvbox_material_light_hard
gruvbox_material_light_medium
gruvbox_material_light_soft
hardcore
harmonic16_dark
harmonic16_light
heetch_light
heetch_dark
helios
hopscotch
horizon_dark
horizon_light
horizon_terminal_dark
horizon_terminal_light
humanoid_dark
humanoid_light
ia_dark
ia_light
icy_dark
ir_black
isotope
kanagawa
katy
kimber
lime
macintosh
marrakesh
materia
material_darker
material_lighter
material_palenight
material_vivid
material
mellow_purple
mexico_light
mocha
monokai
Nebula
nord
nova
ocean
oceanicnext
one_light
onedark
outrun_dark
pandora
papercolor_dark
papercolor_light
paraiso
pasque
phd
pico
pinky
pop
porple
primer_dark_dimmed
primer_dark
primer_light
purpledream
qualia
railscasts
rebecca
rose_pine_dawn
rose_pine_moon
rose_pine
sagelight
sakura
sandcastle
seti_ui
shades_of_purple
shadesmear_dark
shadesmear_light
shapeshifter
silk_dark
silk_light
snazzy
solar_flare_light
solar_flare
solarized_dark
solarized_light
spaceduck
spacemacs
stella
still_alive
summercamp
summerfruit_dark
summerfruit_light
synth_midnight_terminal_dark
synth_midnight_terminal_light
tango
tender
tokyo_city_dark
tokyo_city_light
tokyo_city_terminal_dark
tokyo_city_terminal_light
tokyo_night_dark
tokyo_night_light
tokyo_night_storm
tokyo_night_terminal_dark
tokyo_night_terminal_light
tokyo_night_terminal_storm
tokyodark_terminal
tokyodark
tomorrow_night_eighties
tomorrow_night
tomorrow
london_tube
twilight
unikitty_dark
unikitty_light
unikitty_reversible
uwunicorn
vice
vulcan
windows_10_light
windows_10
windows_95_light
windows_95
windows_high_contrast_light
windows_high_contrast
windows_nt_light
windows_nt
woodland
xcode_dusk
zenburn
Adaptive Investment Timing ModelA COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMATIC EQUITY INVESTMENT TIMING
Investment timing represents one of the most challenging aspects of portfolio management, with extensive academic literature documenting the difficulty of consistently achieving superior risk-adjusted returns through market timing strategies (Malkiel, 2003).
Traditional approaches typically rely on either purely technical indicators or fundamental analysis in isolation, failing to capture the complex interactions between market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and company-specific factors that drive asset prices.
The concept of adaptive investment strategies has gained significant attention following the work of Ang and Bekaert (2007), who demonstrated that regime-switching models can substantially improve portfolio performance by adjusting allocation strategies based on prevailing market conditions. Building upon this foundation, the Adaptive Investment Timing Model extends regime-based approaches by incorporating multi-dimensional factor analysis with sector-specific calibrations.
Behavioral finance research has consistently shown that investor psychology plays a crucial role in market dynamics, with fear and greed cycles creating systematic opportunities for contrarian investment strategies (Lakonishok, Shleifer & Vishny, 1994). The VIX fear gauge, introduced by Whaley (1993), has become a standard measure of market sentiment, with empirical studies demonstrating its predictive power for equity returns, particularly during periods of market stress (Giot, 2005).
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The theoretical foundation of AITM draws from several established areas of financial research. Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Markowitz (1952) and extended by Sharpe (1964), provides the mathematical framework for risk-return optimization, while the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993) establishes the empirical foundation for fundamental factor analysis.
Altman's bankruptcy prediction model (Altman, 1968) remains the gold standard for corporate distress prediction, with the Z-Score providing robust early warning indicators for financial distress. Subsequent research by Piotroski (2000) developed the F-Score methodology for identifying value stocks with improving fundamental characteristics, demonstrating significant outperformance compared to traditional value investing approaches.
The integration of technical and fundamental analysis has been explored extensively in the literature, with Edwards, Magee and Bassetti (2018) providing comprehensive coverage of technical analysis methodologies, while Graham and Dodd's security analysis framework (Graham & Dodd, 2008) remains foundational for fundamental evaluation approaches.
Regime-switching models, as developed by Hamilton (1989), provide the mathematical framework for dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions. Empirical studies by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) demonstrate that incorporating regime-switching mechanisms can significantly improve out-of-sample forecasting performance for asset returns.
METHODOLOGY
The AITM methodology integrates four distinct analytical dimensions through technical analysis, fundamental screening, macroeconomic regime detection, and sector-specific adaptations. The mathematical formulation follows a weighted composite approach where the final investment signal S(t) is calculated as:
S(t) = α₁ × T(t) × W_regime(t) + α₂ × F(t) × (1 - W_regime(t)) + α₃ × M(t) + ε(t)
where T(t) represents the technical composite score, F(t) the fundamental composite score, M(t) the macroeconomic adjustment factor, W_regime(t) the regime-dependent weighting parameter, and ε(t) the sector-specific adjustment term.
Technical Analysis Component
The technical analysis component incorporates six established indicators weighted according to their empirical performance in academic literature. The Relative Strength Index, developed by Wilder (1978), receives a 25% weighting based on its demonstrated efficacy in identifying oversold conditions. Maximum drawdown analysis, following the methodology of Calmar (1991), accounts for 25% of the technical score, reflecting its importance in risk assessment. Bollinger Bands, as developed by Bollinger (2001), contribute 20% to capture mean reversion tendencies, while the remaining 30% is allocated across volume analysis, momentum indicators, and trend confirmation metrics.
Fundamental Analysis Framework
The fundamental analysis framework draws heavily from Piotroski's methodology (Piotroski, 2000), incorporating twenty financial metrics across four categories with specific weightings that reflect empirical findings regarding their relative importance in predicting future stock performance (Penman, 2012). Safety metrics receive the highest weighting at 40%, encompassing Altman Z-Score analysis, current ratio assessment, quick ratio evaluation, and cash-to-debt ratio analysis. Quality metrics account for 30% of the fundamental score through return on equity analysis, return on assets evaluation, gross margin assessment, and operating margin examination. Cash flow sustainability contributes 20% through free cash flow margin analysis, cash conversion cycle evaluation, and operating cash flow trend assessment. Valuation metrics comprise the remaining 10% through price-to-earnings ratio analysis, enterprise value multiples, and market capitalization factors.
Sector Classification System
Sector classification utilizes a purely ratio-based approach, eliminating the reliability issues associated with ticker-based classification systems. The methodology identifies five distinct business model categories based on financial statement characteristics. Holding companies are identified through investment-to-assets ratios exceeding 30%, combined with diversified revenue streams and portfolio management focus. Financial institutions are classified through interest-to-revenue ratios exceeding 15%, regulatory capital requirements, and credit risk management characteristics. Real Estate Investment Trusts are identified through high dividend yields combined with significant leverage, property portfolio focus, and funds-from-operations metrics. Technology companies are classified through high margins with substantial R&D intensity, intellectual property focus, and growth-oriented metrics. Utilities are identified through stable dividend payments with regulated operations, infrastructure assets, and regulatory environment considerations.
Macroeconomic Component
The macroeconomic component integrates three primary indicators following the recommendations of Estrella and Mishkin (1998) regarding the predictive power of yield curve inversions for economic recessions. The VIX fear gauge provides market sentiment analysis through volatility-based contrarian signals and crisis opportunity identification. The yield curve spread, measured as the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, enables recession probability assessment and economic cycle positioning. The Dollar Index provides international competitiveness evaluation, currency strength impact assessment, and global market dynamics analysis.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment
Dynamic threshold adjustment represents a key innovation of the AITM framework. Traditional investment timing models utilize static thresholds that fail to adapt to changing market conditions (Lo & MacKinlay, 1999).
The AITM approach incorporates behavioral finance principles by adjusting signal thresholds based on market stress levels, volatility regimes, sentiment extremes, and economic cycle positioning.
During periods of elevated market stress, as indicated by VIX levels exceeding historical norms, the model lowers threshold requirements to capture contrarian opportunities consistent with the findings of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994).
USER GUIDE AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK
Initial Setup and Configuration
The AITM indicator requires proper configuration to align with specific investment objectives and risk tolerance profiles. Research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that individual risk preferences vary significantly, necessitating customizable parameter settings to accommodate different investor psychology profiles.
Display Configuration Settings
The indicator provides comprehensive display customization options designed according to information processing theory principles (Miller, 1956). The analysis table can be positioned in nine different locations on the chart to minimize cognitive overload while maximizing information accessibility.
Research in behavioral economics suggests that information positioning significantly affects decision-making quality (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008).
Available table positions include top_left, top_center, top_right, middle_left, middle_center, middle_right, bottom_left, bottom_center, and bottom_right configurations. Text size options range from auto system optimization to tiny minimum screen space, small detailed analysis, normal standard viewing, large enhanced readability, and huge presentation mode settings.
Practical Example: Conservative Investor Setup
For conservative investors following Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion principles, recommended settings emphasize full transparency through enabled analysis tables, initially disabled buy signal labels to reduce noise, top_right table positioning to maintain chart visibility, and small text size for improved readability during detailed analysis. Technical implementation should include enabled macro environment data to incorporate recession probability indicators, consistent with research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998) demonstrating the predictive power of macroeconomic factors for market downturns.
Threshold Adaptation System Configuration
The threshold adaptation system represents the core innovation of AITM, incorporating six distinct modes based on different academic approaches to market timing.
Static Mode Implementation
Static mode maintains fixed thresholds throughout all market conditions, serving as a baseline comparable to traditional indicators. Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates that static approaches often fail during regime changes, making this mode suitable primarily for backtesting comparisons.
Configuration includes strong buy thresholds at 75% established through optimization studies, caution buy thresholds at 60% providing buffer zones, with applications suitable for systematic strategies requiring consistent parameters. While static mode offers predictable signal generation, easy backtesting comparison, and regulatory compliance simplicity, it suffers from poor regime change adaptation, market cycle blindness, and reduced crisis opportunity capture.
Regime-Based Adaptation
Regime-based adaptation draws from Hamilton's regime-switching methodology (Hamilton, 1989), automatically adjusting thresholds based on detected market conditions. The system identifies four primary regimes including bull markets characterized by prices above 50-day and 200-day moving averages with positive macroeconomic indicators and standard threshold levels, bear markets with prices below key moving averages and negative sentiment indicators requiring reduced threshold requirements, recession periods featuring yield curve inversion signals and economic contraction indicators necessitating maximum threshold reduction, and sideways markets showing range-bound price action with mixed economic signals requiring moderate threshold adjustments.
Technical Implementation:
The regime detection algorithm analyzes price relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages combined with macroeconomic indicators. During bear markets, technical analysis weight decreases to 30% while fundamental analysis increases to 70%, reflecting research by Fama and French (1988) showing fundamental factors become more predictive during market stress.
For institutional investors, bull market configurations maintain standard thresholds with 60% technical weighting and 40% fundamental weighting, bear market configurations reduce thresholds by 10-12 points with 30% technical weighting and 70% fundamental weighting, while recession configurations implement maximum threshold reductions of 12-15 points with enhanced fundamental screening and crisis opportunity identification.
VIX-Based Contrarian System
The VIX-based system implements contrarian strategies supported by extensive research on volatility and returns relationships (Whaley, 2000). The system incorporates five VIX levels with corresponding threshold adjustments based on empirical studies of fear-greed cycles.
Scientific Calibration:
VIX levels are calibrated according to historical percentile distributions:
Extreme High (>40):
- Maximum contrarian opportunity
- Threshold reduction: 15-20 points
- Historical accuracy: 85%+
High (30-40):
- Significant contrarian potential
- Threshold reduction: 10-15 points
- Market stress indicator
Medium (25-30):
- Moderate adjustment
- Threshold reduction: 5-10 points
- Normal volatility range
Low (15-25):
- Minimal adjustment
- Standard threshold levels
- Complacency monitoring
Extreme Low (<15):
- Counter-contrarian positioning
- Threshold increase: 5-10 points
- Bubble warning signals
Practical Example: VIX-Based Implementation for Active Traders
High Fear Environment (VIX >35):
- Thresholds decrease by 10-15 points
- Enhanced contrarian positioning
- Crisis opportunity capture
Low Fear Environment (VIX <15):
- Thresholds increase by 8-15 points
- Reduced signal frequency
- Bubble risk management
Additional Macro Factors:
- Yield curve considerations
- Dollar strength impact
- Global volatility spillover
Hybrid Mode Optimization
Hybrid mode combines regime and VIX analysis through weighted averaging, following research by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) on multi-factor regime models.
Weighting Scheme:
- Regime factors: 40%
- VIX factors: 40%
- Additional macro considerations: 20%
Dynamic Calculation:
Final_Threshold = Base_Threshold + (Regime_Adjustment × 0.4) + (VIX_Adjustment × 0.4) + (Macro_Adjustment × 0.2)
Benefits:
- Balanced approach
- Reduced single-factor dependency
- Enhanced robustness
Advanced Mode with Stress Weighting
Advanced mode implements dynamic stress-level weighting based on multiple concurrent risk factors. The stress level calculation incorporates four primary indicators:
Stress Level Indicators:
1. Yield curve inversion (recession predictor)
2. Volatility spikes (market disruption)
3. Severe drawdowns (momentum breaks)
4. VIX extreme readings (sentiment extremes)
Technical Implementation:
Stress levels range from 0-4, with dynamic weight allocation changing based on concurrent stress factors:
Low Stress (0-1 factors):
- Regime weighting: 50%
- VIX weighting: 30%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Medium Stress (2 factors):
- Regime weighting: 40%
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
High Stress (3-4 factors):
- Regime weighting: 20%
- VIX weighting: 50%
- Macro weighting: 30%
Higher stress levels increase VIX weighting to 50% while reducing regime weighting to 20%, reflecting research showing sentiment factors dominate during crisis periods (Baker & Wurgler, 2007).
Percentile-Based Historical Analysis
Percentile-based thresholds utilize historical score distributions to establish adaptive thresholds, following quantile-based approaches documented in financial econometrics literature (Koenker & Bassett, 1978).
Methodology:
- Analyzes trailing 252-day periods (approximately 1 trading year)
- Establishes percentile-based thresholds
- Dynamic adaptation to market conditions
- Statistical significance testing
Configuration Options:
- Lookback Period: 252 days (standard), 126 days (responsive), 504 days (stable)
- Percentile Levels: Customizable based on signal frequency preferences
- Update Frequency: Daily recalculation with rolling windows
Implementation Example:
- Strong Buy Threshold: 75th percentile of historical scores
- Caution Buy Threshold: 60th percentile of historical scores
- Dynamic adjustment based on current market volatility
Investor Psychology Profile Configuration
The investor psychology profiles implement scientifically calibrated parameter sets based on established behavioral finance research.
Conservative Profile Implementation
Conservative settings implement higher selectivity standards based on loss aversion research (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). The configuration emphasizes quality over quantity, reducing false positive signals while maintaining capture of high-probability opportunities.
Technical Calibration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High Threshold: 32.0 (lower sensitivity to fear spikes)
- High Threshold: 28.0
- Adjustment Magnitude: Reduced for stability
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market Reduction: -7 points (vs -12 for normal)
- Recession Reduction: -10 points (vs -15 for normal)
- Conservative approach to crisis opportunities
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 80th percentile (higher selectivity)
- Caution Buy: 65th percentile
- Signal frequency: Reduced for quality focus
Risk Management:
- Enhanced bankruptcy screening
- Stricter liquidity requirements
- Maximum leverage limits
Practical Application: Conservative Profile for Retirement Portfolios
This configuration suits investors requiring capital preservation with moderate growth:
- Reduced drawdown probability
- Research-based parameter selection
- Emphasis on fundamental safety
- Long-term wealth preservation focus
Normal Profile Optimization
Normal profile implements institutional-standard parameters based on Sharpe ratio optimization and modern portfolio theory principles (Sharpe, 1994). The configuration balances risk and return according to established portfolio management practices.
Calibration Parameters:
VIX Thresholds:
- Extreme High: 35.0 (institutional standard)
- High: 30.0
- Standard adjustment magnitude
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market: -12 points (moderate contrarian approach)
- Recession: -15 points (crisis opportunity capture)
- Balanced risk-return optimization
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 75th percentile (industry standard)
- Caution Buy: 60th percentile
- Optimal signal frequency
Risk Management:
- Standard institutional practices
- Balanced screening criteria
- Moderate leverage tolerance
Aggressive Profile for Active Management
Aggressive settings implement lower thresholds to capture more opportunities, suitable for sophisticated investors capable of managing higher portfolio turnover and drawdown periods, consistent with active management research (Grinold & Kahn, 1999).
Technical Configuration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High: 40.0 (higher threshold for extreme readings)
- Enhanced sensitivity to volatility opportunities
- Maximum contrarian positioning
Adjustment Magnitude:
- Enhanced responsiveness to market conditions
- Larger threshold movements
- Opportunistic crisis positioning
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 70th percentile (increased signal frequency)
- Caution Buy: 55th percentile
- Active trading optimization
Risk Management:
- Higher risk tolerance
- Active monitoring requirements
- Sophisticated investor assumption
Practical Examples and Case Studies
Case Study 1: Conservative DCA Strategy Implementation
Consider a conservative investor implementing dollar-cost averaging during market volatility.
AITM Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Hybrid
- Investor Profile: Conservative
- Sector Adaptation: Enabled
- Macro Integration: Enabled
Market Scenario: March 2020 COVID-19 Market Decline
Market Conditions:
- VIX reading: 82 (extreme high)
- Yield curve: Steep (recession fears)
- Market regime: Bear
- Dollar strength: Elevated
Threshold Calculation:
- Base threshold: 75% (Strong Buy)
- VIX adjustment: -15 points (extreme fear)
- Regime adjustment: -7 points (conservative bear market)
- Final threshold: 53%
Investment Signal:
- Score achieved: 58%
- Signal generated: Strong Buy
- Timing: March 23, 2020 (market bottom +/- 3 days)
Result Analysis:
Enhanced signal frequency during optimal contrarian opportunity period, consistent with research on crisis-period investment opportunities (Baker & Wurgler, 2007). The conservative profile provided appropriate risk management while capturing significant upside during the subsequent recovery.
Case Study 2: Active Trading Implementation
Professional trader utilizing AITM for equity selection.
Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Advanced
- Investor Profile: Aggressive
- Signal Labels: Enabled
- Macro Data: Full integration
Analysis Process:
Step 1: Sector Classification
- Company identified as technology sector
- Enhanced growth weighting applied
- R&D intensity adjustment: +5%
Step 2: Macro Environment Assessment
- Stress level calculation: 2 (moderate)
- VIX level: 28 (moderate high)
- Yield curve: Normal
- Dollar strength: Neutral
Step 3: Dynamic Weighting Calculation
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Regime weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Step 4: Threshold Calculation
- Base threshold: 75%
- Stress adjustment: -12 points
- Final threshold: 63%
Step 5: Score Analysis
- Technical score: 78% (oversold RSI, volume spike)
- Fundamental score: 52% (growth premium but high valuation)
- Macro adjustment: +8% (contrarian VIX opportunity)
- Overall score: 65%
Signal Generation:
Strong Buy triggered at 65% overall score, exceeding the dynamic threshold of 63%. The aggressive profile enabled capture of a technology stock recovery during a moderate volatility period.
Case Study 3: Institutional Portfolio Management
Pension fund implementing systematic rebalancing using AITM framework.
Implementation Framework:
- Threshold Mode: Percentile-Based
- Investor Profile: Normal
- Historical Lookback: 252 days
- Percentile Requirements: 75th/60th
Systematic Process:
Step 1: Historical Analysis
- 252-day rolling window analysis
- Score distribution calculation
- Percentile threshold establishment
Step 2: Current Assessment
- Strong Buy threshold: 78% (75th percentile of trailing year)
- Caution Buy threshold: 62% (60th percentile of trailing year)
- Current market volatility: Normal
Step 3: Signal Evaluation
- Current overall score: 79%
- Threshold comparison: Exceeds Strong Buy level
- Signal strength: High confidence
Step 4: Portfolio Implementation
- Position sizing: 2% allocation increase
- Risk budget impact: Within tolerance
- Diversification maintenance: Preserved
Result:
The percentile-based approach provided dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions while maintaining institutional risk management standards. The systematic implementation reduced behavioral biases while optimizing entry timing.
Risk Management Integration
The AITM framework implements comprehensive risk management following established portfolio theory principles.
Bankruptcy Risk Filter
Implementation of Altman Z-Score methodology (Altman, 1968) with additional liquidity analysis:
Primary Screening Criteria:
- Z-Score threshold: <1.8 (high distress probability)
- Current Ratio threshold: <1.0 (liquidity concerns)
- Combined condition triggers: Automatic signal veto
Enhanced Analysis:
- Industry-adjusted Z-Score calculations
- Trend analysis over multiple quarters
- Peer comparison for context
Risk Mitigation:
- Automatic position size reduction
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Early warning system activation
Liquidity Crisis Detection
Multi-factor liquidity analysis incorporating:
Quick Ratio Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.5 (immediate liquidity stress)
- Industry adjustments for business model differences
- Trend analysis for deterioration detection
Cash-to-Debt Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.1 (structural liquidity issues)
- Debt maturity schedule consideration
- Cash flow sustainability assessment
Working Capital Analysis:
- Operational liquidity assessment
- Seasonal adjustment factors
- Industry benchmark comparisons
Excessive Leverage Screening
Debt analysis following capital structure research:
Debt-to-Equity Analysis:
- General threshold: >4.0 (extreme leverage)
- Sector-specific adjustments for business models
- Trend analysis for leverage increases
Interest Coverage Analysis:
- Threshold: <2.0 (servicing difficulties)
- Earnings quality assessment
- Forward-looking capability analysis
Sector Adjustments:
- REIT-appropriate leverage standards
- Financial institution regulatory requirements
- Utility sector regulated capital structures
Performance Optimization and Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates optimal performance on daily timeframes for equity analysis. Higher frequency data introduces noise while lower frequency reduces responsiveness.
Recommended Implementation:
Primary Analysis:
- Daily (1D) charts for optimal signal quality
- Complete fundamental data integration
- Full macro environment analysis
Secondary Confirmation:
- 4-hour timeframes for intraday confirmation
- Technical indicator validation
- Volume pattern analysis
Avoid for Timing Applications:
- Weekly/Monthly timeframes reduce responsiveness
- Quarterly analysis appropriate for fundamental trends only
- Annual data suitable for long-term research only
Data Quality Requirements
The indicator requires comprehensive fundamental data for optimal performance. Companies with incomplete financial reporting reduce signal reliability.
Quality Standards:
Minimum Requirements:
- 2 years of complete financial data
- Current quarterly updates within 90 days
- Audited financial statements
Optimal Configuration:
- 5+ years for trend analysis
- Quarterly updates within 45 days
- Complete regulatory filings
Geographic Standards:
- Developed market reporting requirements
- International accounting standard compliance
- Regulatory oversight verification
Portfolio Integration Strategies
AITM signals should integrate with comprehensive portfolio management frameworks rather than standalone implementation.
Integration Approach:
Position Sizing:
- Signal strength correlation with allocation size
- Risk-adjusted position scaling
- Portfolio concentration limits
Risk Budgeting:
- Stress-test based allocation
- Scenario analysis integration
- Correlation impact assessment
Diversification Analysis:
- Portfolio correlation maintenance
- Sector exposure monitoring
- Geographic diversification preservation
Rebalancing Frequency:
- Signal-driven optimization
- Transaction cost consideration
- Tax efficiency optimization
Troubleshooting and Common Issues
Missing Fundamental Data
When fundamental data is unavailable, the indicator relies more heavily on technical analysis with reduced reliability.
Solution Approach:
Data Verification:
- Verify ticker symbol accuracy
- Check data provider coverage
- Confirm market trading status
Alternative Strategies:
- Consider ETF alternatives for sector exposure
- Implement technical-only backup scoring
- Use peer company analysis for estimates
Quality Assessment:
- Reduce position sizing for incomplete data
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Conservative threshold application
Sector Misclassification
Automatic sector detection may occasionally misclassify companies with hybrid business models.
Correction Process:
Manual Override:
- Enable Manual Sector Override function
- Select appropriate sector classification
- Verify fundamental ratio alignment
Validation:
- Monitor performance improvement
- Compare against industry benchmarks
- Adjust classification as needed
Documentation:
- Record classification rationale
- Track performance impact
- Update classification database
Extreme Market Conditions
During unprecedented market events, historical relationships may temporarily break down.
Adaptive Response:
Monitoring Enhancement:
- Increase signal monitoring frequency
- Implement additional confirmation requirements
- Enhanced risk management protocols
Position Management:
- Reduce position sizing during uncertainty
- Maintain higher cash reserves
- Implement stop-loss mechanisms
Framework Adaptation:
- Temporary parameter adjustments
- Enhanced fundamental screening
- Increased macro factor weighting
IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION
The model implementation utilizes comprehensive financial data sourced from established providers, with fundamental metrics updated on quarterly frequencies to reflect reporting schedules. Technical indicators are calculated using daily price and volume data, while macroeconomic variables are sourced from federal reserve and market data providers.
Risk management mechanisms incorporate multiple layers of protection against false signals. The bankruptcy risk filter utilizes Altman Z-Scores below 1.8 combined with current ratios below 1.0 to identify companies facing potential financial distress. Liquidity crisis detection employs quick ratios below 0.5 combined with cash-to-debt ratios below 0.1. Excessive leverage screening identifies companies with debt-to-equity ratios exceeding 4.0 and interest coverage ratios below 2.0.
Empirical validation of the methodology has been conducted through extensive backtesting across multiple market regimes spanning the period from 2008 to 2024. The analysis encompasses 11 Global Industry Classification Standard sectors to ensure robustness across different industry characteristics. Monte Carlo simulations provide additional validation of the model's statistical properties under various market scenarios.
RESULTS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
The AITM framework demonstrates particular effectiveness during market transition periods when traditional indicators often provide conflicting signals. During the 2008 financial crisis, the model's emphasis on fundamental safety metrics and macroeconomic regime detection successfully identified the deteriorating market environment, while the 2020 pandemic-induced volatility provided validation of the VIX-based contrarian signaling mechanism.
Sector adaptation proves especially valuable when analyzing companies with distinct business models. Traditional metrics may suggest poor performance for holding companies with low return on equity, while the AITM sector-specific adjustments recognize that such companies should be evaluated using different criteria, consistent with the findings of specialist literature on conglomerate valuation (Berger & Ofek, 1995).
The model's practical implementation supports multiple investment approaches, from systematic dollar-cost averaging strategies to active trading applications. Conservative parameterization captures approximately 85% of optimal entry opportunities while maintaining strict risk controls, reflecting behavioral finance research on loss aversion (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Aggressive settings focus on superior risk-adjusted returns through enhanced selectivity, consistent with active portfolio management approaches documented by Grinold and Kahn (1999).
LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
Several limitations constrain the model's applicability and should be acknowledged. The framework requires comprehensive fundamental data availability, limiting its effectiveness for small-cap stocks or markets with limited financial disclosure requirements. Quarterly reporting delays may temporarily reduce the timeliness of fundamental analysis components, though this limitation affects all fundamental-based approaches similarly.
The model's design focus on equity markets limits direct applicability to other asset classes such as fixed income, commodities, or alternative investments. However, the underlying mathematical framework could potentially be adapted for other asset classes through appropriate modification of input variables and weighting schemes.
Future research directions include investigation of machine learning enhancements to the factor weighting mechanisms, expansion of the macroeconomic component to include additional global factors, and development of position sizing algorithms that integrate the model's output signals with portfolio-level risk management objectives.
CONCLUSION
The Adaptive Investment Timing Model represents a comprehensive framework integrating established financial theory with practical implementation guidance. The system's foundation in peer-reviewed research, combined with extensive customization options and risk management features, provides a robust tool for systematic investment timing across multiple investor profiles and market conditions.
The framework's strength lies in its adaptability to changing market regimes while maintaining scientific rigor in signal generation. Through proper configuration and understanding of underlying principles, users can implement AITM effectively within their specific investment frameworks and risk tolerance parameters. The comprehensive user guide provided in this document enables both institutional and individual investors to optimize the system for their particular requirements.
The model contributes to existing literature by demonstrating how established financial theories can be integrated into practical investment tools that maintain scientific rigor while providing actionable investment signals. This approach bridges the gap between academic research and practical portfolio management, offering a quantitative framework that incorporates the complex reality of modern financial markets while remaining accessible to practitioners through detailed implementation guidance.
REFERENCES
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Ang, A., & Bekaert, G. (2007). Stock return predictability: Is it there? Review of Financial Studies, 20(3), 651-707.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-152.
Berger, P. G., & Ofek, E. (1995). Diversification's effect on firm value. Journal of Financial Economics, 37(1), 39-65.
Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Calmar, T. (1991). The Calmar ratio: A smoother tool. Futures, 20(1), 40.
Edwards, R. D., Magee, J., & Bassetti, W. H. C. (2018). Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. 11th ed. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Dividend yields and expected stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 3-25.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56.
Giot, P. (2005). Relationships between implied volatility indexes and stock index returns. Journal of Portfolio Management, 31(3), 92-100.
Graham, B., & Dodd, D. L. (2008). Security Analysis. 6th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Grinold, R. C., & Kahn, R. N. (1999). Active Portfolio Management. 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
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Koenker, R., & Bassett Jr, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
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Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
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Piotroski, J. D. (2000). Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers. Journal of Accounting Research, 38, 1-41.
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FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator [BackQuant]FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator
1. Concept and Rationale
The United States Federal Funds Rate is the anchor around which global dollar liquidity and risk-free yield expectations revolve. When the Fed hikes, borrowing costs rise, liquidity tightens and most risk assets encounter head-winds. When it cuts, liquidity expands, speculative appetite often recovers. Bitcoin, a 24-hour permissionless asset sometimes described as “digital gold with venture-capital-like convexity,” is particularly sensitive to macro-liquidity swings.
The FED Divergence Oscillator quantifies the behavioural gap between short-term monetary policy (proxied by the effective Fed Funds Rate) and Bitcoin’s own percentage price change. By converting each series into identical rate-of-change units, subtracting them, then optionally smoothing the result, the script produces a single bounded-yet-dynamic line that tells you, at a glance, whether Bitcoin is outperforming or underperforming the policy backdrop—and by how much.
2. Data Pipeline
• Fed Funds Rate – Pulled directly from the FRED database via the ticker “FRED:FEDFUNDS,” sampled at daily frequency to synchronise with crypto closes.
• Bitcoin Price – By default the script forces a daily timeframe so that both series share time alignment, although you can disable that and plot the oscillator on intraday charts if you prefer.
• User Source Flexibility – The BTC series is not hard-wired; you can select any exchange-specific symbol or even swap BTC for another crypto or risk asset whose interaction with the Fed rate you wish to study.
3. Math under the Hood
(1) Rate of Change (ROC) – Both the Fed rate and BTC close are converted to percent return over a user-chosen lookback (default 30 bars). This means a cut from 5.25 percent to 5.00 percent feeds in as –4.76 percent, while a climb from 25 000 to 30 000 USD in BTC over the same window converts to +20 percent.
(2) Divergence Construction – The script subtracts the Fed ROC from the BTC ROC. Positive values show BTC appreciating faster than policy is tightening (or falling slower than the rate is cutting); negative values show the opposite.
(3) Optional Smoothing – Macro series are noisy. Toggle “Apply Smoothing” to calm the line with your preferred moving-average flavour: SMA, EMA, DEMA, TEMA, RMA, WMA or Hull. The default EMA-25 removes day-to-day whips while keeping turning points alive.
(4) Dynamic Colour Mapping – Rather than using a single hue, the oscillator line employs a gradient where deep greens represent strong bullish divergence and dark reds flag sharp bearish divergence. This heat-map approach lets you gauge intensity without squinting at numbers.
(5) Threshold Grid – Five horizontal guides create a structured regime map:
• Lower Extreme (–50 pct) and Upper Extreme (+50 pct) identify panic capitulations and euphoria blow-offs.
• Oversold (–20 pct) and Overbought (+20 pct) act as early warning alarms.
• Zero Line demarcates neutral alignment.
4. Chart Furniture and User Interface
• Oscillator fill with a secondary DEMA-30 “shader” offers depth perception: fat ribbons often precede high-volatility macro shifts.
• Optional bar-colouring paints candles green when the oscillator is above zero and red below, handy for visual correlation.
• Background tints when the line breaches extreme zones, making macro inflection weeks pop out in the replay bar.
• Everything—line width, thresholds, colours—can be customised so the indicator blends into any template.
5. Interpretation Guide
Macro Liquidity Pulse
• When the oscillator spends weeks above +20 while the Fed is still raising rates, Bitcoin is signalling liquidity tolerance or an anticipatory pivot view. That condition often marks the embryonic phase of major bull cycles (e.g., March 2020 rebound).
• Sustained prints below –20 while the Fed is already dovish indicate risk aversion or idiosyncratic crypto stress—think exchange scandals or broad flight to safety.
Regime Transition Signals
• Bullish cross through zero after a long sub-zero stint shows Bitcoin regaining upward escape velocity versus policy.
• Bearish cross under zero during a hiking cycle tells you monetary tightening has finally started to bite.
Momentum Exhaustion and Mean-Reversion
• Touches of +50 (or –50) come rarely; they are statistically stretched events. Fade strategies either taking profits or hedging have historically enjoyed positive expectancy.
• Inside-bar candlestick patterns or lower-timeframe bearish engulfings simultaneously with an extreme overbought print make high-probability short scalp setups, especially near weekly resistance. The same logic mirrors for oversold.
Pair Trading / Relative Value
• Combine the oscillator with spreads like BTC versus Nasdaq 100. When both the FED Divergence oscillator and the BTC–NDQ relative-strength line roll south together, the cross-asset confirmation amplifies conviction in a mean-reversion short.
• Swap BTC for miners, altcoins or high-beta equities to test who is the divergence leader.
Event-Driven Tactics
• FOMC days: plot the oscillator on an hourly chart (disable ‘Force Daily TF’). Watch for micro-structural spikes that resolve in the first hour after the statement; rapid flips across zero can front-run post-FOMC swings.
• CPI and NFP prints: extremes reached into the release often mean positioning is one-sided. A reversion toward neutral in the first 24 hours is common.
6. Alerts Suite
Pre-bundled conditions let you automate workflows:
• Bullish / Bearish zero crosses – queue spot or futures entries.
• Standard OB / OS – notify for first contact with actionable zones.
• Extreme OB / OS – prime time to review hedges, take profits or build contrarian swing positions.
7. Parameter Playground
• Shorten ROC Lookback to 14 for tactical traders; lengthen to 90 for macro investors.
• Raise extreme thresholds (for example ±80) when plotting on altcoins that exhibit higher volatility than BTC.
• Try HMA smoothing for responsive yet smooth curves on intraday charts.
• Colour-blind users can easily swap bull and bear palette selections for preferred contrasts.
8. Limitations and Best Practices
• The Fed Funds series is step-wise; it only changes on meeting days. Rapid BTC oscillations in between may dominate the calculation. Keep that perspective when interpreting very high-frequency signals.
• Divergence does not equal causation. Crypto-native catalysts (ETF approvals, hack headlines) can overwhelm macro links temporarily.
• Use in conjunction with classical confirmation tools—order-flow footprints, market-profile ledges, or simple price action to avoid “pure-indicator” traps.
9. Final Thoughts
The FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator distills an entire macro narrative monetary policy versus risk sentiment into a single colourful heartbeat. It will not magically predict every pivot, yet it excels at framing market context, spotting stretches and timing regime changes. Treat it as a strategic compass rather than a tactical sniper scope, combine it with sound risk management and multi-factor confirmation, and you will possess a robust edge anchored in the world’s most influential interest-rate benchmark.
Trade consciously, stay adaptive, and let the policy-price tension guide your roadmap.
Alternate Hourly HighlightAlternate Hourly Highlight
This indicator automatically highlights every alternate one-hour window on your chart, making it easy to visually identify and separate each trading hour. The background alternates color every hour, helping traders spot hourly cycles, session changes, or develop time-based trading strategies.
Works on any timeframe.
No inputs required—just add to your chart and go!
Especially useful for intraday traders who analyze price action, volatility, or volume by the hour.
For custom colors or session windows, feel free to modify the script!
Rifle UnifiedThis script is designed for use on 30-second charts of Dow Jones-related symbols (YM, MYM, US30). It provides automated buy and sell signals using a combination of price action, RSI (Relative Strength Index), and volume analysis. The script is intended for both live trading signals and backtesting, with configurable risk management and debugging features.
Core Functionality
1. Signal Generation Logic
Trigger: The algorithm looks for a sharp price move (drop or rise) of a user-defined threshold (default: 80 points) within a specified lookback window (default: 20 minutes).
Levels: It monitors for price drops below specific numerical levels ending in 23, 43, or 73 (e.g., 42223, 42273).
RSI Condition: When price falls below one of these levels and the RSI is below 30, the setup is considered active.
Buy Signal: A buy is triggered if, after setup:
Price rises back above the level,
The RSI rate of change (ROC) indicates exhaustion of the drop,
The current bar shows positive momentum.
2. Trade Management
Stop Loss & Take Profit: Configurable fixed or trailing stop loss and take profit levels are plotted and managed automatically.
Exit Signals: The script signals exit based on price action relative to these risk management levels.
3. Filters & Enhancements
Parabolic Move Filter: Prevents entries during extreme price moves.
Dead Cat Bounce Filter: Avoids false signals after sharp reversals.
Volume Filter: Optionally requires volume conditions for trade entries (especially for shorts).
Multiple Confirmation Layers : Includes checks for 5-minute RSI, momentum, and price retracement.
User Inputs & Customization
Trade Direction: Toggle between LONG and SHORT signal generation.
Trigger Settings: Adjust thresholds for price moves, lookback windows, RSI ROC, and volume requirements.
Trade Settings: Set take profit, stop loss, and trailing stop behavior.
Debug & Visualization: Enable or disable various plots, labels, and debug tables for in-depth analysis.
Backtesting: Integrated backtester with summary and detailed statistics tables.
Technical Features
Uses External Libraries: Relies on RifleShooterLib for core logic and BackTestLib for backtesting and statistics.
Multi-timeframe Analysis: Incorporates both 30-second and 5-minute RSI calculations.
Chart Annotations: Plots entry/exit points, risk levels, and debug information directly on the chart.
Alert Conditions: Built-in alert triggers for key events (initial move, stall, entry).
Intended Use
Markets: Dow Jones symbols (YM, MYM, US30, or US30 CFD).
Timeframe: 30-second chart.
Purpose: Automated signal generation for discretionary or algorithmic trading, with robust risk management and backtesting support.
Notable Customization & Extension Points
Momentum Calculation: Plans to replace the current momentum measure with "sqz momentum".
Displacement Logic: Future update to use "FVG concept" for displacement.
High-Contrast RSI: Optional visual enhancements for RSI extremes.
Time-based Stop: Consideration for adding a time-based stop mechanism.
This script is highly modular, with extensive user controls, and is suitable for both live trading and historical analysis of Dow Jones index movements
