Fair Value Strategy UltimateThis is a strategy using an index's (SPX, NDX, RUT) Fair Value derived from Net Liquidity.
Net Liquidity function is simply: Fed Balance Sheet - Treasury General Account - Reverse Repo Balance
Formula for calculating the fair value of and Index using Net Liquidity looks like this: net_liquidity/1000000000/scalar - subtractor
The Index Fair Value is then subtracted from the Index value which creates an oscillating diff value.
When diff is greater than the overbought threshold, Index is considered overbought and we go short/sell.
When diff is less than the oversold signal, Index is considered oversold and we cover/buy.
The net liquidity values I calculate outside of TradingView. If you'd like the strategy to work for future dates, you'll need to update the reference to my NetLiquidityLibrary , which I update daily.
Parameters:
Index: SPX, NDX, RUT
Strategy: Short Only, Long Only, Long/Short
Inverse (bool): check if using an inverse ETF to go long instead of short.
Scalar (float)
Subtractor (int)
Overbought Threshold (int)
Oversold Threshold (int)
Start After Date: When the strategy should start trading
Close Date: Day to close open trades. I just like it to get complete results rather than the strategy ending with open trades.
Optimal Parameters:
I've optimized the parameters for each index using the python backtesting library and they are as follows =>
SPX
Scalar: 1.1
Subtractor: 1425
OB Threshold: 0
OS Threshold: -175
NDX
Scalar: 0.5
Subtractor: 250
OB Threshold: 0
OS Threshold: -25
RUT
Scalar: 3.2
Subtractor: 50
OB Threshold: 25
OS Threshold: -25
Komut dosyalarını "spx" için ara
S&P500 Sectors Relative Overviewdear fellows,
this indicator is yet another representation of S&P 500 industry sectors.
it is inspired by mr. stanley drukenmiller who in an interview mentioned that he knows no better market forecaster than the inside of the sp500 itself, which are its industry sectors.
thus, we have been for a while thinking on how to represent the performance of these sectors such that one could visually estimated the current stage of the cycle, and grasp the next one.
unfortunatelly, we believe this cannot be achieved by solely looking into SP500 industry sectors. perhaps coupled with a broad market indicator like our MRI, for instance, one can have greater odds of success.
what does it show
it displays colorfully through out time how each sector travels through its 200 period high and lows.
note that an alternative view of the sectors relatively to SPX could be considered, but by now we focused on the relative performance against its recent past (200 period, regardless the timeframe).
over the colored columns we've plotted in white the SPX under the same logic.
how is it calculated
each sector price is converged into a percentage of how near it is to its 200 period low.
so, when the price of the sector index equals the 200 period min, it is valued as 0.
when it equals the 200 period max, it is valued as 100.
same for the white plot of SPX above the colored columns.
thus a flat reading at 100 makes it indistinguishable a continued ATH extension from a pause at the ATH.
how is it colored
when the converted price results in a value lesser or equal 33, its respective bar is colored in red.
when it is between 33 and 66, the bar is colored in yellow.
and when it lies above 66, in green.
on how is it grouped
the specific ordering of the sectors is not yet settled.
we've grouped it visually based on likelihood.
on how to use this indicator
although we believe that it does not suffice for any conclusion on the market, we do not believe that an above chart can improve the resulting insight. so, at least by the time being, we recommend it to be stared alone, although not exclusively, by trader.
we are open to suggestions of any sort.
your feedback is much appreciated.
this is a work we'd have been looking for a while to put it out.
enjoy.
best regards.
Price Divergence IndicatorThis Price Divergence Indicator indicator modifies the standard Divergence Indicator to look for price divergences between the current chart and any other selected TradingView chart.
The thesis that this indicator is built upon:
Prices on assets or indices that are normally correlated move in lock step. Where there are deviations between the confirmed highs or lows of two assets or indices it is likely that they will "catch up" in the near future.
By default it will load the price data for the SPX and look for price divergences on the current chart timeframe. Any TradingView Symbol can be selected as the 'Comparison Source' and any timeframe. Some of the options I've been trying out include:
SPX vs NDQ
XAO vs SPX
UK100 vs NDQM
MSFT vs NDQM
GOOG vs NDQM
AMZN vs MSFT
BTC vs ETH
BTC vs NDQ
BTC vs DXY
I've found looking for divergences on a longer timeframe can be useful and don't expect any meaningful results if you set it to shorter than chart timeframes.
Alerts can be created based on any of the divergences and the 'Backtest Buy Signal' can be used to send notification to a backtester (bull = 2, hidden bull = 1, neutral = 0, hidden bear = -1, bear = -2), this is plotted to display.none, so enable it in Settings - Style and disable all other plots to see it.
Divergences are measured between the CONFIRMED peaks of the two charts. The confirmation timeframe is set using 'Pivot Lookback Right'. The lower the lookback the quicker the signal and the more likely it is to not have hit an actual peak, a higher lookback will give a much more dependable signal but the move may be finished by the time the alert actually fires. The "Plot When Alerts Fire" option should give you an idea (top and bottom triangles) of what to expect, but you should watch bar replays to understand how your setting will impact when alerts are created and potential false positives.
Racer Correlation [racer8]This indicator gauges correlation between 2 markets using my own method I invented. It is far superior to the correlation coefficient in that it maintains steady correlation values, meaning less false signals regarding correlation. Yet, the indicator's calculation is very simple in fact...
It simply calculates the percentage of moves in the same direction as the other market. So if MSFT moved in the same direction as SPX 80% of the time, then the indicator would show you a value of 80. Unlike correlation coefficient, you can calculate exactly how many of MSFT's bars moved in the same direction as SPX's bars. Everytime MSFT moves in the same direction as SPX, it is included in the percentage of positively correlated moves.
Closing prices are used solely in the indicator's calculations. All indicator values represent a percentage. Also, I recommend a length of at least 100 periods.
Values between 0% and 25% indicate strong negative correlation. (bright red)
Values between 25% and 33% indicate moderate negative correlation. (red)
Values between 33% and 50% indicate weak negative correlation. (dark red)
Values between 50% and 67% indicate weak positive correlation. (dark green)
Values between 67% and 75% indicate moderate positive correlation. (green)
Values between 75% and 100% indicate strong positive correlation. (bright green)........Enjoy :)
Index of indexxesHi, this is pretty straight forward. This is the DXY equivalent of NDX, SPX, RUT, DJ. It's a full index of the US market.
You can play with the weights, drag and drop, let's say SPX and see how SPX performs compared to the four major indexxes.
Percentage Relative StrengthA relative strength indicator that compares your main symbol (one on your chart) strength to another symbol by percentage.
The result is plotted as a histogram showing which symbol is rising or falling more in percentage.
In case your chart symbol is TSLA (Tesla) and the indicator 'Symbol to compare' is SPX:
GREEN area (above zero) means TSLA is rising more than the SPX.
RED area (below zero) means TSLA is falling more than the SPX.
To these who wants to understand calculation, it's pretty straightforward.
For each asset we calculate everyday percentage change based on previous close and current close.
We take main asset (chart symbol) percentage and subtract it from percent of change of the symbol we want to compare to.
Result are smoothed by SMA (Simple Moving Average)
You can select different indexes or cfds such as S&P500 (SPX), NASDAQ 100 (NSX), RUSSELL 2000 (RUT) and NASDAQ (IXIC).
Default is S&P 500 (SPX).
Enjoy and Like if you like.
Probability: Bull/Bear Dominance | Ratio | Bar CountIntro
What's the probability of the next bar being red? How about green? Well, there are many ways to quantify the probability but I am presenting just one stupidly simple (but generally accurate) way to measure it.
Strangely... no one has done this before that I can find. I try to check if someone else has done it first (Pro Tip: Plz do this. We honestly don't need the 5 trillionth "MTF MAs" script.)
Indicator
Its a basic counting script, but the nice thing about this script is you choose the time range. It starts counting from a specified point of your choosing. It counts up the bull bars and bear bars separately.
Bull Bar = Close > Open
Bear Bar = Open > Close
You can look at them in sum or as a ratio of Green Bars : Red Bars
I know, it's almost too simple. But, here's some interesting food for thought from a layman to fellow laymen.
Analysis/Edge
Between the time of candle open and candle close, the price can do one of three things, close higher, close lower, or close equal to.
'Equal to' is rare on higher timeframes in liquid markets and it provides no useful information. Thus, we'll nix it for purposes of this conversation.
So boil it down. The next candle is going to be a red candle or a green candle.
It is popular to refer to the general probability of most candles as 50/50, with trader's mission in life being to seek an edge that tilts the probabilities slightly in their favor.
The truth is the odds are probably never actually 50/50, but knowing the precisely correct probability is unknowable, just like the accuracy of a weather forecast is inherently unknowable. What we're trying to do as traders is develop systems that give us predictive probabilistic outcomes that correspond with future realities based on various ways of measuring the market (most often heavily dependent on the past).
The reality is that the market can be measured in many, many different ways. The important thing is that you measure it in a way that is accurate, relevant, and universally applicable.
So look at this indicator here:
You start from a point in time on a chosen timeframe and you put red bars in the red column, green in the green column, and count them all up.
Then you make a ratio, in this case, Green : Red.
What the ratio shows you is the percentage of green bars compared to red bars . At the time of this screenshot, the 4h on the SPX starting from the 2020 bottom is showing a ratio of 1.2.
This means there have been 20% more green bars than there have been red bars.
Now there are 1,000 directions you can take this discussion. What is the overall volatility picture, the size of the red bars vs the green bars, what happens if you miss out on the 5 biggest green bars... so many more variables that you would need to take into account to develop a true edge from this idea. But, the bottom line fact (which is what I like about this) is that we can take this data and say with a certain level of confidence that on the SPX you have a 20% better shot at making money (otherwise stated there's a 60/40 chance) if you open a LONG trade at the beginning of a 4h candle than if you open a short.
That's useful information. One could argue that it's not a complete strategy in and of itself (although I bet it could be with a couple of additional parameters). But I can tell you, based on the 4h candles in the 2020 rally if you open a short, the deck is stacked against you from this perspective. And we can actually somewhat demonstrate this to be true for our dataset because we can look at the price history and see who likely made more money. The SPX is up 1000pts off the bottom. So, thus far, for this dataset, it rings true; Bulls have been doing way better in the latter part of 2020 than the bears.
Conclusion
Predictive systems with a small number of variables tend to be more robust than a system with many variables when applied to a complex system. I may keep updating this script if people like it and determine aspects like population vs sample size, confidence intervals, volatility, and exclusion of outliers. For now, this is just an opening foray into the basic idea of how we can establish an edge in the markets. It really can be this simple.
Thanks for Reading.
Failed 2U/2D + 50% Retrace ScannerScan Number 1 for SPY,SPX, QQQ, AAPL
📈 Multi-Ticker Failed 2U/2D Scanner with Daily Retrace & Market Breadth Table
This TradingView indicator is a multi-symbol price action scanner designed to catch high-probability reversal signals using The Strat’s failed 2U/2D patterns and daily 50% retrace logic, while also displaying market breadth metrics ( USI:TICK and USI:ADD ) for context.
Monitored Symbols:
SPY, SPX, QQQ, IWM, NVDA, AMD, AAPL, META, MSTR
🔍 Detection Logic
1. Failed 2U / Failed 2D Setups
Failed 2U: Price breaks above the previous candle’s high but closes back below the open → Bearish reversal
Failed 2D: Price breaks below the previous candle’s low but closes back above the open → Bullish reversal
Timeframes Monitored:
🕐 1-Hour (1H)
⏰ 4-Hour (4H)
2. Daily 50% Candle Retrace
Checks if price has retraced 50% or more of the previous day’s candle body
Highlights potential trend exhaustion or reversal confluence
3. Market Breadth Metrics (Display Only)
USI:TICK : Measures real-time NYSE up vs. down ticks
USI:ADD : Advance-Decline Line (net advancing stocks)
Not used in signal logic — just displayed in the table for overall market context
🖼️ Visual Elements
✅ Chart Markers
🔺 Red/Green Arrows for 1H Failed 2U/2D
🟨 Yellow Squares for 4H Failed 2U/2D
Visual markers are plotted directly on the relevant candles
📊 Signal Table
Lists all 9 tickers in rows
Columns for:
1H Signal
4H Signal
Daily 50% Retrace
USI:TICK Value
USI:ADD Value
Color-Coded Cells:
🔴 Red = Failed 2U
🟢 Green = Failed 2D
⚠️ Highlight if 50% Daily Retrace condition is true
🟦 Neutral-colored cells for TICK/ADD numeric display
🔔 Alerts
Hardcoded alerts fire when:
A 1H or 4H Failed 2U/2D is detected
The Daily 50% retrace condition is met
Each alert is labeled clearly by symbol and timeframe:
"SPY 4H Failed 2D"
"AAPL Daily 50% Retrace"
🎯 Use Case
Built for:
Reversal traders using The Strat
Swing or intraday traders watching hourly setups
Traders wanting quick visual context on market breadth without relying on it for confirmation
Monitoring multiple tickers in one clean view
1h can be used for Intraday trades
4h for possible short swing
Do your own ta
Failed 2U/2D + 50% Retrace Scanner📈 Multi-Ticker Failed 2U/2D Scanner with Daily Retrace & Market Breadth Table
This TradingView indicator is a multi-symbol price action scanner designed to catch high-probability reversal signals using The Strat’s failed 2U/2D patterns and daily 50% retrace logic, while also displaying market breadth metrics ( USI:TICK and USI:ADD ) for context.
Monitored Symbols:
SPY, SPX, QQQ, IWM, NVDA, AMD, AAPL, META, MSTR
🔍 Detection Logic
1. Failed 2U / Failed 2D Setups
Failed 2U: Price breaks above the previous candle’s high but closes back below the open → Bearish reversal
Failed 2D: Price breaks below the previous candle’s low but closes back above the open → Bullish reversal
Timeframes Monitored:
🕐 1-Hour (1H)
⏰ 4-Hour (4H)
2. Daily 50% Candle Retrace
Checks if price has retraced 50% or more of the previous day’s candle body
Highlights potential trend exhaustion or reversal confluence
3. Market Breadth Metrics (Display Only)
USI:TICK : Measures real-time NYSE up vs. down ticks
USI:ADD : Advance-Decline Line (net advancing stocks)
Not used in signal logic — just displayed in the table for overall market context
🖼️ Visual Elements
✅ Chart Markers
🔺 Red/Green Arrows for 1H Failed 2U/2D
🟨 Yellow Squares for 4H Failed 2U/2D
Visual markers are plotted directly on the relevant candles
📊 Signal Table
Lists all 9 tickers in rows
Columns for:
1H Signal
4H Signal
Daily 50% Retrace
USI:TICK Value
USI:ADD Value
Color-Coded Cells:
🔴 Red = Failed 2U
🟢 Green = Failed 2D
⚠️ Highlight if 50% Daily Retrace condition is true
🟦 Neutral-colored cells for TICK/ADD numeric display
🔔 Alerts
Hardcoded alerts fire when:
A 1H or 4H Failed 2U/2D is detected
The Daily 50% retrace condition is met
Each alert is labeled clearly by symbol and timeframe:
"META 4H Failed 2D"
"AAPL Daily 50% Retrace"
🎯 Use Case
Built for:
Reversal traders using The Strat
Swing or intraday traders watching hourly setups
Traders wanting quick visual context on market breadth without relying on it for confirmation
Monitoring multiple tickers in one clean view
This is scan 2
Add scan 1 for spx, spy, iwm, qqq, aapl
This indicator is not financial advice. Use the alerts to check out chart and when tickers trigger.
StatMetricsLibrary "StatMetrics"
A utility library for common statistical indicators and ratios used in technical analysis.
Includes Z-Score, correlation, PLF, SRI, Sharpe, Sortino, Omega ratios, and normalization tools.
zscore(src, len)
Calculates the Z-score of a series
Parameters:
src (float) : The input price or series (e.g., close)
len (simple int) : The lookback period for mean and standard deviation
Returns: Z-score: number of standard deviations the input is from the mean
corr(x, y, len)
Computes Pearson correlation coefficient between two series
Parameters:
x (float) : First series
y (float) : Second series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Correlation coefficient between -1 and 1
plf(src, longLen, shortLen, smoothLen)
Calculates the Price Lag Factor (PLF) as the difference between long and short Z-scores, normalized and smoothed
Parameters:
src (float) : Source series (e.g., close)
longLen (simple int) : Long Z-score period
shortLen (simple int) : Short Z-score period
smoothLen (simple int) : Hull MA smoothing length
Returns: Smoothed and normalized PLF oscillator
sri(signal, len)
Computes the Statistical Reliability Index (SRI) based on trend persistence
Parameters:
signal (float) : A price or signal series (e.g., smoothed PLF)
len (simple int) : Lookback period for smoothing and deviation
Returns: Normalized trend reliability score
sharpe(src, len)
Calculates the Sharpe Ratio over a period
Parameters:
src (float) : Price series (e.g., close)
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Sharpe ratio value
sortino(src, len)
Calculates the Sortino Ratio over a period, using only downside volatility
Parameters:
src (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Sortino ratio value
omega(src, len)
Calculates the Omega Ratio as the ratio of upside to downside return area
Parameters:
src (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Omega ratio value
beta(asset, benchmark, len)
Calculates beta coefficient of asset vs benchmark using rolling covariance
Parameters:
asset (float) : Series of the asset (e.g., close)
benchmark (float) : Series of the benchmark (e.g., SPX close)
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Beta value (slope of linear regression)
alpha(asset, benchmark, len)
Calculates rolling alpha of an asset relative to a benchmark
Parameters:
asset (float) : Series of the asset (e.g., close)
benchmark (float) : Series of the benchmark (e.g., SPX close)
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Alpha value (excess return not explained by Beta exposure)
skew(x, len)
Computes skewness of a return series
Parameters:
x (float) : Input series (e.g., returns)
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Skewness value
kurtosis(x, len)
Computes kurtosis of a return series
Parameters:
x (float) : Input series (e.g., returns)
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Kurtosis value
cv(x, len)
Calculates Coefficient of Variation
Parameters:
x (float) : Input series (e.g., returns or prices)
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: CV value
autocorr(x, len)
Calculates autocorrelation with 1-lag
Parameters:
x (float) : Series to test
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Autocorrelation at lag 1
stderr(x, len)
Calculates rolling standard error of a series
Parameters:
x (float) : Input series
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Standard error (std dev / sqrt(n))
info_ratio(asset, benchmark, len)
Calculates the Information Ratio
Parameters:
asset (float) : Asset price series
benchmark (float) : Benchmark price series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Information ratio (alpha / tracking error)
tracking_error(asset, benchmark, len)
Measures deviation from benchmark (Tracking Error)
Parameters:
asset (float) : Asset return series
benchmark (float) : Benchmark return series
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Tracking error value
max_drawdown(x, len)
Computes maximum drawdown over a rolling window
Parameters:
x (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Rolling max drawdown percentage (as a negative value)
zscore_signal(z, ob, os)
Converts Z-score into a 3-level signal
Parameters:
z (float) : Z-score series
ob (float) : Overbought threshold
os (float) : Oversold threshold
Returns: -1, 0, or 1 depending on signal state
r_squared(x, y, len)
Calculates rolling R-squared (coefficient of determination)
Parameters:
x (float) : Asset returns
y (float) : Benchmark returns
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: R-squared value (0 to 1)
entropy(x, len)
Approximates Shannon entropy using log returns
Parameters:
x (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Approximate entropy
zreversal(z)
Detects Z-score reversals to the mean
Parameters:
z (float) : Z-score series
Returns: +1 on upward reversal, -1 on downward
momentum_rank(x, len)
Calculates relative momentum strength
Parameters:
x (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Proportion of lookback where current price is higher
normalize(x, len)
Normalizes a series to a 0–1 range over a period
Parameters:
x (float) : The input series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Normalized value between 0 and 1
composite_score(score1, score2, score3)
Combines multiple normalized scores into a composite score
Parameters:
score1 (float)
score2 (float)
score3 (float)
Returns: Average composite score
Breadth-Driven Swing StrategyWhat it does
This script trades the S&P 500 purely on market breadth extremes:
• Data source : INDEX:S5TH = % of S&P 500 stocks above their own 200-day SMA (range 0–100).
• Buy when breadth is washed-out.
• Sell when breadth is overheated.
It is long-only by design; shorting and ATR trailing stops have been removed to keep the logic minimal and transparent.
⸻
Signals in plain English
1. Long entry
A. A 200-EMA trough in breadth is printed and the trough value is ≤ 40 %.
or
B. A 5-EMA trough appears, its prominence passes the user threshold, and the lowest breadth reading in the last 20 bars is ≤ 20 %.
(Toggle this secondary trigger on/off with “ Enter also on 5-EMA trough ”.)
2. Exit (close long)
First 200-EMA peak whose breadth value is ≥ 70 %.
3. Risk control
A fixed stop-loss (% of entry price, default 8 %) is attached to every long trade.
⸻
Key parameters (defaults shown)
• Long EMA length 200 • Short EMA length 5
• Peak prominence 0.5 pct-pts • Trough prominence 3 pct-pts
• Peak level 70 % • Trough level 40 % • 5-EMA trough level 20 %
• Fixed stop-loss 8 %
• “Enter also on 5-EMA trough” = true (allows additional entries on extreme momentum reversals)
Feel free to tighten or relax any of these thresholds to match your risk profile or account for different market regimes.
⸻
How to use it
1. Load the script on a daily SPX / SPY chart.
(The price chart drives order execution; the breadth series is pulled internally and does not need to be on the chart.)
2. Verify the breadth feed.
INDEX:S5TH is updated after each session; your broker must provide it.
3. Back-test across several cycles.
Two decades of daily data is recommended to see how the rules behave in bear markets, range markets, and bull trends.
4. Adjust position sizing in the Properties tab.
The default is “100 % of equity”; change it if you prefer smaller allocations or pyramiding caps.
⸻
Why it can help
• Breadth signals often lead price, allowing entries before index-level momentum turns.
• Simple, rule-based exits prevent “waiting for confirmation” paralysis.
• Only one input series—easy to audit, no black-box math.
Trade-offs
• Relies on a single breadth metric; other internals (advance/decline, equal-weight returns, etc.) are ignored.
• May sit in cash during shallow pullbacks that never push breadth ≤ 40 %.
• Signals arrive at the end of the session (breadth is EoD data).
⸻
Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets are risky; test thoroughly and use your own judgment before trading real money.
ストラテジー概要
本スクリプトは S&P500 のマーケットブレッド（内部需給） だけを手がかりに、指数をスイングトレードします。
• ブレッドデータ : INDEX:S5TH
（S&P500 採用銘柄のうち、それぞれの 200 日移動平均線を上回っている銘柄比率。0–100 %）
• 買い : ブレッドが極端に売られたタイミング。
• 売り : ブレッドが過熱状態に達したタイミング。
余計な機能を削り、ロングオンリー & 固定ストップ のシンプル設計にしています。
⸻
シグナルの流れ
1. ロングエントリー
• 条件 A : 200-EMA がトラフを付け、その値が 40 % 以下
• 条件 B : 5-EMA がトラフを付け、
・プロミネンス条件を満たし
・直近 20 本のブレッドス最小値が 20 % 以下
• B 条件は「5-EMA トラフでもエントリー」を ON にすると有効
2. ロング決済
最初に出現した 200-EMA ピーク で、かつ値が 70 % 以上 のバーで手仕舞い。
3. リスク管理
各トレードに 固定ストップ（初期価格から 8 %）を設定。
⸻
主なパラメータ（デフォルト値）
• 長期 EMA 長さ : 200 • 短期 EMA 長さ : 5
• ピーク判定プロミネンス : 0.5 %pt • トラフ判定プロミネンス : 3 %pt
• ピーク水準 : 70 % • トラフ水準 : 40 % • 5-EMA トラフ水準 : 20 %
• 固定ストップ : 8 %
• 「5-EMA トラフでもエントリー」 : ON
相場環境やリスク許容度に合わせて閾値を調整してください。
⸻
使い方
1. 日足の SPX / SPY チャート にスクリプトを適用。
2. ブレッドデータの供給 (INDEX:S5TH) がブローカーで利用可能か確認。
3. 20 年以上の期間でバックテスト し、強気相場・弱気相場・レンジ局面での挙動を確認。
4. 資金配分 は プロパティ → 戦略実行 で調整可能（初期値は「資金の 100 %」）。
⸻
強み
• ブレッドは 価格より先行 することが多く、天底を早期に捉えやすい。
• ルールベースの出口で「もう少し待とう」と迷わずに済む。
• 入力 series は 1 本のみ、ブラックボックス要素なし。
注意点・弱み
• 単一指標に依存。他の内部需給（A/D ライン等）は考慮しない。
• 40 % を割らない浅い押し目では機会損失が起こる。
• ブレッドは終値ベースの更新。ザラ場中の変化は捉えられない。
⸻
免責事項
本スクリプトは 学習目的 で提供しています。投資助言ではありません。
実取引の前に必ず自己責任で十分な検証とリスク管理を行ってください。
Session Times + Strenght M7This Script Aims to Define Session Times, and Rank those. It can help to adjust your Strategy to Higher Volatility, if you choose to use the Session Volatility and Strenght Index from 1-10. Your timezone on Trading View should be NY. You can customize the Following in Settings: Weight of Volatility & Narrative Regarding the ranking + Transparency of the Lines. SP:SPX FX:EURUSD OANDA:EURUSD CAPITALCOM:USDJPY AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:USDJPY CME_MINI:NQ1! OANDA:XAUUSD FX:GBPUSD
JPMorgan Collar LevelsJPMorgan Collar Levels – SPX/SPY Auto-Responsive (Quarterly Logic)
This script tracks the JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund collar strategy, one of the most watched institutional positioning tools on SPX/SPY. The strategy rolls quarterly and often acts as a magnet or resistance/support zone for price.
Nasan Ultimate Health Index (NUHI)The Nasan Ultimate Health Index (NUHI) is a technical indicator designed to measure the relative health of a stock compared to a benchmark index or sector. By incorporating price action, volume dynamics, and volatility, NUHI provides traders with a clearer picture of a stock’s performance relative to the broader market.
The NUHI is based on the idea that a stock’s relative strength and momentum can be assessed more effectively when adjusted for volume behavior and benchmark comparison. Instead of looking at price movement alone, this indicator factors in:
The stock’s price trend (via EMA)
Volume participation (green vs. red volume) and volume ratio - SMA(volume, 21)/ SMA(volume, 252)
Volatility-adjusted performance (ATR-based scaling)
Comparison with a selected benchmark (e.g., SPX, NDX, sector ETFs)
This results in a normalized and comparative score that helps traders identify outperforming, neutral, and underperforming stocks within a specific market environment.
The NUHI is constructed using the following elements:
1️⃣ Stock Raw Score (Unadjusted Momentum)
The exponential moving average (EMA) of the hlc3 (average of high, low, close) is used to define the price trend.
The difference between the current EMA and the EMA from n bars ago shows whether the stock is gaining or losing momentum.
This difference is divided by the ATR (Average True Range) to adjust for volatility.
2️⃣ Volume Behavior Adjustment
Volume is split into green volume (up candles) and red volume (down candles).
The ratio of green to red volume determines whether buyers or sellers dominate over the selected period (n bars).
If the stock is in an uptrend, green volume is weighted higher; if in a downtrend, red volume is weighted higher.
The stock’s Volume Ratio (short-term SMA divided by long-term SMA) is adjusted based on this weight.
3️⃣ Benchmark Comparison
A similar Raw Score calculation is performed on the selected benchmark (SPX, NDX, or sector ETF).
Benchmark price movements, volume behavior, and ATR adjustments mirror the stock’s calculations.
This provides a reference point for evaluating the stock’s relative strength.
4️⃣ Normalization Process
Both the stock and benchmark raw scores are min-max normalized over the past 252 bars (1-year lookback).
This scales values between 0 and 1, ensuring fair comparisons regardless of absolute price differences.
5️⃣ NUHI Calculation
The final NUHI value is computed using a logarithmic ratio between the normalized stock score and the normalized benchmark score:
This transformation ensures a more symmetrical representation of overperformance and underperformance.
Performance Zones
Strong Outperforming (NUHI between >0.41 and 0.69)
Leading (NUHI between >0.10 and 0.41)
Transitioning Outperformance (NUHI between 0.10 and 0)
Equilibrium (NUHI 0)
Transitioning Underperformance (NUHI between -0.10 and 0)
Lagging (NUHI between < -0.1 and -0.41)
Strong Underperforming (NUHI between< -0.41 and -0.69 )
How to Use NUHI
✅ Identifying Strong Stocks
If NUHI > 0, the stock is outperforming its benchmark.
If NUHI < 0, the stock is underperforming the benchmark.
✅ Trend Confirmation
A steadily rising NUHI and raw score (colored green) suggests sustained strength bullish conditions.
A falling NUHI and raw score (colored orange) indicates weakness and possible rotation into other assets.
✅ Finding Reversals
Bullish Divergence: If NUHI is improving while the stock’s raw score is negative, it may signal a bottoming opportunity.
Bearish Signs: If NUHI is dropping despite price strength, it could hint at underlying weakness.
Why a Stock in a Downtrend Can Have NUHI > 0 (and Vice Versa )
NUHI measures performance relative to both its own history and the benchmark.
A stock’s recent movement is compared to how it usually behaves and how the benchmark is performing.
Example Scenarios:
Stock in a Downtrend but NUHI > 0
The stock may still be in a downtrend (negative raw score), but it’s performing better relative to its past downtrend behavior and better than the benchmark over the same period.
This could mean it’s showing relative strength compared to the broader market or sector.
Stock in an Uptrend but NUHI < 0
Even in a uptrend (positive raw score), the stock might be underperforming relative to its past uptrend behavior and underperforming the benchmark.
What This Means:
NUHI > 0 in a downtrend → The stock is falling less aggressively than usual and/or holding up better than the benchmark.
NUHI < 0 in an uptrend → The stock is gaining less than expected based on its history and/or lagging behind the benchmark.
NUHI helps identify relative strength or weakness .
THE Bucknut test PARI (SPY)📌 THE Bucknut Test PARI – Market Momentum & Volatility Gauge
🔹 Description
THE Bucknut Test PARI Indicator is a momentum and volatility-based market gauge designed to provide clear, actionable insights on price movement. This indicator calculates a Price Action Relative Index (PARI) score to help traders evaluate risk and potential market reversals.
It utilizes exponential moving average (EMA)-based momentum, standard deviation volatility, and SPY correlation to generate a PARI score between 1-100. The score is then categorized into risk zones, helping traders identify when conditions are favorable for entries or caution is needed.
Ideal for intraday traders, options traders (including SPX 0DTE), and swing traders looking to gauge volatility-driven market shifts.
🔥 Features & Functionality
✅ Momentum Calculation via EMA Filtering – Ensures smooth, responsive signals.
✅ Volatility-Based Adjustments – Uses standard deviation-based volatility scaling.
✅ SPY Correlation Filtering – Helps align momentum signals with market sentiment.
✅ User-Defined Timeframe Settings – Adjusts dynamically based on selected time intervals.
✅ Customizable Risk Thresholds – Allows traders to define high-risk, neutral, and low-risk zones.
✅ Non-Repainting Algorithm – Ensures reliable, static signals without revision.
⚙️ Settings & Adjustments
Setting Default Value Description
Time Frame Mode "5m-15m" Choose between 1m-3m, 5m-15m, or 1H-Daily. Affects smoothing values.
Scaling Factor 10 Adjusts PARI score sensitivity. Higher values amplify movement.
Background Color Black Custom background for the indicator panel.
Background Transparency 85 Controls indicator panel opacity (0 = solid, 100 = invisible).
High-Risk Threshold 80 Above this level, market is in overbought/high-risk conditions.
Low-Risk Threshold 20 Below this level, market is oversold/low-risk for potential reversals.
Neutral Level 50 Middle ground where price action is balanced.
📈 How to Use THE Bucknut Test PARI
🔴 Above 80 (High-Risk Zone)
Market may be overheated, strong momentum may fade or reverse soon.
Caution with calls; potential put opportunities.
🟢 Below 20 (Low-Risk Zone)
Market is oversold, potential reversal or bounce incoming.
Consider long entries or avoiding shorts.
⚪ Between 20-80 (Neutral Zone)
Market is in equilibrium; follow primary trend direction.
No extreme risk, trend-following strategies preferred.
🔍 Example Use Cases
✔ Intraday Traders → Gauge market strength on short-term charts (1m-15m).
✔ SPX 0DTE Options Traders → Time high-confidence call/put setups.
✔ Swing Traders → Identify periods of excessive momentum or exhaustion.
IronCondor 10am 30TF by RMThe IronCondor 10am 30TF indicator shows Iron Condor trades win rate over a large number of days.
The default ETFs in this indicators are "QQQ", "SPY", "RUT" , "CBTX" and "SPX", other entries have not been tested.
Iron Condor quick explanation:
- Iron Condors trades have four options, generally, are based around a Midpoint price (Current Market Price Strike) and
- Two equally distances Strikes for the SELL components (called the Body of the Iron Condor)
- Further away from the two SELLs, another Two BUYs for protection (not considered in this indicator)
- Iron Condors are used for Passive Income based on small gains most of the time.
The IronCondor 10am 30TF has its logic created based on the premises that:
- Most days the market prices stay within a range.
- As example the S&P market prices would stay within 1% on about 80% of the time
- The moving markets (bullish or bearish) occur about 20% of the time
- The biggest market price volatility generally occurs before market opens and then around the first hour or so of trade in the day.
- After the first hour or so of the market the prices would be most likely to stay within a range.
The operation is simple:
- At the Trade Star time in the day (say 10:30 Hrs.) draws a vertical yellow line, then
- Creates two blue horizontal lines for the SELL limits in the Iron Condor Body, at +/- 1% price boundary (check Ticker list below for values)
- At the Trade End time (say 16:00 Hrs.) checks that none of the SELL limits have been broken by highs or lows during the trade day
(The check is done calculating at Trade End time the high/lows 10 bars back for 30 min TF - timeframe)
- There is a label at each Trade End time with Win/Loss and Body value.
- There is one final label with overall calculated past performance in Win percentage out of 'n' trades
Defaults and User Entries:
- The User can modify the Midpoint price called 'IronCondor Midpoint STRIKE' (default is the Candle Close at the selected time)
- The User can modify the Body value called 'IronCondor Body' (default is the Ticker's selected value as per list below)
"QQQ" or "SPY" Body = 5
"RUT" or "CBTX" Body = 20
"SPX" Body = 60
* Disclaimer: This is not a Financial tool, it cannot used as any kind of advice to invest or risk moneys in any market,
Markets are volatile in nature - with little or no warning - and will drain your account if you are not careful.
Use only as an academic demonstrator => * Use at your own risk *
Hidden SMT Divergence ICT 01 [TradingFinder] HSMT SMC Technique🔵 Introduction
Hidden SMT Divergence, an advanced concept within the Smart Money Technique (SMT), identifies discrepancies between correlated assets by focusing on their closing prices.
Unlike the standard SMT Divergence, which uses high and low prices for analysis, Hidden SMT Divergence uncovers subtle signals by examining divergences based on the assets' closing values.
These divergences often highlight potential reversals or trend continuations, making this technique a valuable tool for traders aiming to anticipate market movements.
This approach applies across various markets and asset classes, including :
Commodities : CAPITALCOM:GOLD vs. CAPITALCOM:SILVER or BLACKBULL:BRENT vs. BLACKBULL:WTI .
Indices : NASDAQ:NDX vs. TVC:SPX vs. FX:US30 .
FOREX : FX:EURUSD vs. OANDA:GBPUSD vs. TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index).
Cryptocurrencies : BITSTAMP:BTCUSD vs. COINBASE:ETHUSD vs. KUCOIN:SOLUSDT vs. CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 .
Volatility Measures : FOREXCOM:XAUUSD vs. TVC:VIX (Volatility Index).
By identifying divergences within these asset groups, traders can gain actionable insights into potential market reversals or shifts in trend direction. Hidden SMT Divergence is particularly effective for pinpointing subtle market signals that traditional methods may overlook.
Bullish Hidden SMT Divergence : This divergence emerges when one asset forms a higher low, while the correlated asset creates a lower low in terms of their closing prices. It often signals weakening downward momentum and a potential reversal to the upside.
Bearish Hidden SMT Divergence : This occurs when one asset establishes a higher high, while the correlated asset forms a lower high based on their closing prices. It typically reflects declining upward momentum and a probable shift to the downside.
🔵 How to Use
The Hidden SMT Divergence indicator provides traders with a systematic approach to identify market reversals or trend continuations through divergences in closing prices between two correlated assets.
🟣 Bullish Hidden SMT Divergence
Bullish Hidden SMT Divergence occurs when the closing price of the primary asset forms a higher low, while the correlated asset creates a lower low. This pattern indicates weakening downward momentum and signals a potential reversal to the upside.
After identifying the divergence, confirm it using additional tools like support levels, volume trends, or indicators such as RSI and MACD. Enter a buy position as the price shows signs of reversal near support zones, ensuring proper risk management by placing a stop-loss below the support level.
Bearish Hidden SMT Divergence
Bearish Hidden SMT Divergence is identified when the closing price of the primary asset forms a higher high, while the correlated asset creates a lower high. This divergence suggests a weakening uptrend and a likely reversal to the downside.
Validate the signal by examining resistance levels, declining volume, or complementary indicators. Consider entering a sell position as the price starts declining from resistance levels, and set a stop-loss above the resistance zone to limit potential losses.
🔵 Setting
Second Symbol : Select the secondary asset to compare with the primary asset. By default, "XAUUSD" (Gold) is used, but it can be customized to any stock, cryptocurrency, or currency pair.
Divergence Fractal Periods : Defines the number of past candles considered for identifying divergences. The default value is 2, but traders can adjust it for greater precision.
Bullish Divergence Line : Displays a dashed line connecting the points of bullish divergence.
Bearish Divergence Line : Shows a similar line for bearish divergence points.
Bullish Divergence Label : Marks areas of bullish divergence with a "+SMT" label.
Bearish Divergence Label : Highlights bearish divergences with a "-SMT" label.
Chart Type : Choose between Line or Candle charts for enhanced visualization.
🔵 Conclusion
Hidden SMT Divergence offers traders a refined method for identifying market reversals by analyzing closing price discrepancies between correlated assets. Its ability to uncover subtle divergences makes it an essential tool for traders who aim to stay ahead of market trends.
By integrating this technique with other technical analysis tools and sound risk management, traders can enhance their decision-making process and capitalize on market opportunities with greater confidence.
Hidden SMT Divergence’s focus on closing prices ensures more precise signals, helping traders refine their strategies across various markets, including Forex, commodities, indices, and cryptocurrencies.
Its open-source nature allows for customization and verification, providing transparency and flexibility to suit diverse trading needs. Hidden SMT Divergence stands as a powerful addition to the arsenal of any trader seeking to unlock hidden opportunities in dynamic financial markets.
Murad Picks Target MCThe Murad Picks Target Market Cap Indicator is a custom TradingView tool designed for crypto traders and enthusiasts tracking tokens in the Murad Picks list. This indicator dynamically calculates and visualizes the price targets based on Murad Mahmudov's projected market capitalizations, allowing you to gauge each token's growth potential directly on your charts.
Indicator support tokens:
- SPX6900
- GIGA
- MOG
- POPCAT
- APU
- BITCOIN
- RETARDIO
- LOCKIN
Key Features :
Dynamic Target Price Lines:
- Displays horizontal lines representing the price when the token reaches its projected market cap.
- Automatically adjusts for the active chart symbol (e.g., SPX, MOG, APU, etc.).
X Multiplier Calculation:
- Shows how many times the current price must multiply to achieve the target price.
- Perfect for understanding relative growth potential.
Customizable Inputs:
- Easily update target market caps and circulating supply for each token.
- Adjust visuals such as line colors and styles.
Seamless Integration:
- Automatically adapts to the token you’re viewing (e.g., SPX, MOG, APU).
- Clean and visually intuitive, with labels marking targets.
COT Report Indicator with Speculator Net PositionsThe COT Report Indicator with Speculator Net Positions is designed to give traders insights into the behavior of large market participants, particularly speculators, based on the Commitment of Traders (COT) report data. This indicator visualizes the long and short positions of non-commercial traders, allowing users to gauge the sentiment and positioning of large speculators in key markets, such as Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, S&P 500, and currency pairs like EURUSD, GBPUSD, and others.
The indicator provides three essential components:
Net Long Position (Green) - Displays the total long positions held by speculators.
Net Short Position (Purple) - Shows the total short positions held by speculators.
Net Difference (Long - Short) (Yellow) - Illustrates the difference between long and short positions, helping users identify whether speculators are more bullish or bearish on the asset.
Recommended Timeframes:
Best Timeframes: Weekly and Monthly
The COT report data is released on a weekly basis, making higher timeframes like the Weekly and Monthly charts ideal for this indicator. These timeframes provide a more accurate reflection of the underlying trends in speculator positioning, avoiding the noise present in lower timeframes.
How to Use:
Market Sentiment: Use this indicator to gauge the sentiment of large speculators, who often drive market trends. A strong net long position can indicate bullish sentiment, while a high net short position might suggest bearish sentiment.
Trend Reversal Signals: Sudden changes in the net difference between long and short positions may indicate potential trend reversals.
Confirmation Tool: Pair this indicator with your existing analysis to confirm the strength of a trend or identify overbought/oversold conditions based on speculator activity.
Supported Symbols:
This indicator currently supports a range of commodities and currency pairs, including:
Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD )
Silver ( OANDA:XAGUSD )
Crude Oil ( TVC:USOIL )
Natural Gas ( NYMEX:NG1! )
S&P 500 ( SP:SPX )
Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY )
EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD )
GBPUSD ( FX:GBPUSD )
GBPJPY( FX:GBPJPY )
By providing clear insight into the positions of large speculators, this indicator is a powerful tool for traders looking to align with institutional sentiment and enhance their trading strategy.
Advanced Economic Indicator by USCG_VetAdvanced Economic Indicator by USCG_Vet
tldr:
This comprehensive TradingView indicator combines multiple economic and financial metrics into a single, customizable composite index. By integrating key indicators such as the yield spread, commodity ratios, stock indices, and the Federal Reserve's QE/QT activities, it provides a holistic view of the economic landscape. Users can adjust the components and their weights to tailor the indicator to their analysis, aiding in forecasting economic conditions and market trends.
Detailed Description
Overview
The Advanced Economic Indicator is designed to provide traders and investors with a powerful tool to assess the overall economic environment. By aggregating a diverse set of economic indicators and financial market data into a single composite index, it helps identify potential turning points in the economy and financial markets.
Key Features:
Comprehensive Coverage: Includes 14 critical economic and financial indicators.
Customizable Components: Users can select which indicators to include.
Adjustable Weights: Assign weights to each component based on perceived significance.
Visual Signals: Clear plotting with threshold lines and background highlights.
Alerts: Set up alerts for when the composite index crosses user-defined thresholds.
Included Indicators
Yield Spread (10-Year Treasury Yield minus 3-Month Treasury Yield)
Copper/Gold Ratio
High Yield Spread (HYG/IEF Ratio)
Stock Market Performance (S&P 500 Index - SPX)
Bitcoin Performance (BLX)
Crude Oil Prices (CL1!)
Volatility Index (VIX)
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Inflation Expectations (TIP ETF)
Consumer Confidence (XLY ETF)
Housing Market Index (XHB)
Manufacturing PMI (XLI ETF)
Unemployment Rate (Inverse SPY as Proxy)
Federal Reserve QE/QT Activities (Fed Balance Sheet - WALCL)
How to Use the Indicator
Configuring the Indicator:
Open Settings: Click on the gear icon (⚙️) next to the indicator's name.
Inputs Tab: You'll find a list of all components with checkboxes and weight inputs.
Including/Excluding Components
Checkboxes: Check or uncheck the box next to each component to include or exclude it from the composite index.
Default State: By default, all components are included.
Adjusting Component Weights:
Weight Inputs: Next to each component's checkbox is a weight input field.
Default Weights: Pre-assigned based on economic significance but fully adjustable.
Custom Weights: Enter your desired weight for each component to reflect your analysis.
Threshold Settings:
Bearish Threshold: Default is -1.0. Adjust to set the level below which the indicator signals potential economic downturns.
Bullish Threshold: Default is 1.0. Adjust to set the level above which the indicator signals potential economic upswings.
Setting the Timeframe:
Weekly Timeframe Recommended: Due to the inclusion of the Fed's balance sheet data (updated weekly), it's best to use this indicator on a weekly chart.
Changing Timeframe: Select 1W (weekly) from the timeframe options at the top of the chart.
Interpreting the Indicator:
Composite Index Line
Plot: The blue line represents the composite economic indicator.
Movement: Observe how the line moves relative to the threshold lines.
Threshold Lines
Zero Line (Gray Dotted): Indicates the neutral point.
Bearish Threshold (Red Dashed): Crossing below suggests potential economic weakness.
Bullish Threshold (Green Dashed): Crossing above suggests potential economic strength.
Background Highlights
Red Background: When the composite index is below the bearish threshold.
Green Background: When the composite index is above the bullish threshold.
No Color: When the composite index is between the thresholds.
Understanding the Components
1. Yield Spread
Description: The difference between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields.
Economic Significance: An inverted yield curve (negative spread) has historically preceded recessions.
2. Copper/Gold Ratio
Description: The price ratio of copper to gold.
Economic Significance: Copper is tied to industrial demand; gold is a safe-haven asset. The ratio indicates risk sentiment.
3. High Yield Spread (HYG/IEF Ratio)
Description: Ratio of high-yield corporate bonds (HYG) to intermediate-term Treasury bonds (IEF).
Economic Significance: Reflects investor appetite for risk; widening spreads can signal credit stress.
4. Stock Market Performance (SPX)
Description: S&P 500 Index levels.
Economic Significance: Broad measure of U.S. equity market performance.
5. Bitcoin Performance (BLX)
Description: Bitcoin Liquid Index price.
Economic Significance: Represents risk appetite in speculative assets.
6. Crude Oil Prices (CL1!)
Description: Front-month crude oil futures price.
Economic Significance: Influences inflation and consumer spending.
7. Volatility Index (VIX)
Description: Market's expectation of volatility (fear gauge).
Economic Significance: High VIX indicates market uncertainty; inverted in the indicator to align directionally.
8. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Description: Value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.
Economic Significance: Affects international trade and commodity prices; inverted in the indicator.
9. Inflation Expectations (TIP ETF)
Description: iShares TIPS Bond ETF prices.
Economic Significance: Reflects market expectations of inflation.
10. Consumer Confidence (XLY ETF)
Description: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund prices.
Economic Significance: Proxy for consumer confidence and spending.
11. Housing Market Index (XHB)
Description: SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF prices.
Economic Significance: Indicator of the housing market's health.
12. Manufacturing PMI (XLI ETF)
Description: Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund prices.
Economic Significance: Proxy for manufacturing activity.
13. Unemployment Rate (Inverse SPY as Proxy)
Description: Inverse of the SPY ETF price.
Economic Significance: Represents unemployment trends; higher inverse SPY suggests higher unemployment.
14. Federal Reserve QE/QT Activities (Fed Balance Sheet - WALCL)
Description: Total assets held by the Federal Reserve.
Economic Significance: Indicates liquidity injections (QE) or withdrawals (QT); impacts interest rates and asset prices.
Customization and Advanced Usage
Adjusting Weights:
Purpose: Emphasize components you believe are more predictive or relevant.
Method: Increase or decrease the weight value next to each component.
Example: If you think the yield spread is particularly important, you might assign it a higher weight.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading and investing involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own analysis and consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
US Sentiment Index [CryptoSea]The US Sentiment Index is an advanced analytical tool designed for traders seeking to uncover patterns, correlations, and potential leading signals across key market tickers. This indicator surpasses traditional sentiment measures, providing a data-driven approach that offers deeper insights compared to conventional indices like the Fear and Greed Index.
Key Features
Multi-Ticker Analysis: Integrates data from a diverse set of market indicators, including gold, S&P 500, U.S. Dollar Index, Volatility Index, and more, to create a comprehensive view of market sentiment.
Customisable Sensitivity Settings: Allows users to adjust the moving average period to fine-tune the sensitivity of sentiment calculations, adapting the tool to various market conditions and trading strategies.
Detailed Sentiment Scaling: Utilises a 0-100 scale to quantify sentiment strength, with colour gradients that visually represent bearish, neutral, and bullish conditions, aiding in quick decision-making.
Below is an example where the sentiment index can give leading signals. We see a first sign of wekaness in the index as it drops below its moving average. Shortly after we see it dip below our median 50 level, another sign of weakeness. We see the SPX price action to take a hit following the sentiment index decrease.
Tickers Used and Their Impact on Sentiment
The impact of each ticker on sentiment can be bullish or bearish, depending on their behaviour:
Gold (USGD): Typically seen as a safe-haven asset, rising gold prices often indicate increased market fear or bearish sentiment. Conversely, falling gold prices can signal reduced fear and a shift towards bullish sentiment in riskier assets.
S&P 500 (SPX): A rising S&P 500 is usually a sign of bullish sentiment, reflecting confidence in economic growth and market stability. A decline, however, suggests bearish sentiment and a potential move towards risk aversion.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): A strengthening U.S. Dollar can be a sign of fear as investors seek safety in the dollar, which is bearish for risk assets. A weakening dollar, on the other hand, can signal bullish sentiment as capital flows into riskier assets.
Volatility Index (VIX): Known as the "fear gauge," a rising VIX indicates increased market fear and bearish sentiment. A falling VIX suggests a calm, bullish market environment.
Junk Bonds (JNK): Rising junk bond prices often reflect bullish sentiment as investors take on more risk for higher returns. Conversely, falling junk bond prices signal increased fear and bearish sentiment.
Long-Term Treasury Bonds (TLT): Higher prices for long-term treasuries usually indicate a flight to safety, reflecting bearish sentiment. Lower prices suggest a shift towards riskier assets, indicating bullish sentiment.
Financial Sector ETF (XLF): Strength in the financial sector is typically bullish, indicating confidence in economic conditions. Weakness in this sector can reflect bearish sentiment and concerns about financial stability.
Unemployment Rate (USUR): A rising unemployment rate is a bearish signal, indicating economic weakness. A declining unemployment rate is bullish, reflecting economic strength and job growth.
U.S. Interest Rates (USINTR, USIRYY): Higher interest rates can be bearish, as they increase borrowing costs and reduce spending. Lower rates are generally bullish, promoting economic growth and risk-taking.
How it Works
Sentiment Calculation: The US Sentiment Index combines data from multiple tickers, calculating sentiment by scaling the distance from their respective moving averages. Each asset's behaviour is interpreted within the context of market fear or greed, providing a refined sentiment reading that adjusts dynamically.
Market Strength Analysis: When the index is above 50 and also above its moving average, it indicates particularly strong or bullish market conditions, driven by greed. Conversely, when the index is below 50 and under its moving average, it signals bearish or weak market conditions, associated with fear.
Correlation and Pattern Detection: The indicator analyses correlations among the included assets to detect patterns that might signal potential market movements, giving traders a leading edge over simpler sentiment measures.
Adaptive Background Colouring: Utilises a colour gradient that dynamically adjusts based on sentiment values, highlighting extreme fear, neutral, and extreme greed levels directly on the chart.
Flexible Display Options: Offers settings to toggle the moving average plot and adjust its period, giving users the ability to tailor the indicator's sensitivity and display to their specific needs.
In this example below, we can see the Sentiment rise above the Moving Average (MA). Price action goes on to follow this, although there is an instance where it dips below the MA, it quickly rises back above again as a sign of strength.
Another way you can use this index is by simply using the MA, if its trending up, we know the macro sentiment is bullish.
Application
Data-Driven Insights: Offers traders a detailed, data-driven approach to sentiment analysis, incorporating a broad spectrum of market indicators to deliver actionable insights.
Pattern Recognition: Helps identify patterns and correlations that may lead to market reversals or continuations, providing a nuanced view that goes beyond simple sentiment gauges.
Enhanced Decision-Making: Equips traders with a robust tool to validate trading strategies and make informed decisions based on comprehensive sentiment analysis.
The US Sentiment Index by is an essential addition to the toolkit of any trader looking to navigate market complexities with precision and confidence. Its advanced features and data-driven approach offer unparalleled insights into market sentiment, setting it apart from conventional sentiment indicators.
QQQ and SPY Price Levels [MW]Introduction:
Don’t let SPY and QQQ resistance levels hurt your futures trading anymore. The QQQ and SPY Price Levels indicator automagically provides easily accessible QQQ price levels for NASDAQ-related charts such as QQQ, /NQ and /MNQ futures, and leveraged ETFs such as TQQQ and SQQQ as well as for SPY price levels for S&P 500-related charts such as SPY, /ES and /MES futures, SPX, and leveraged ETFs such as UPRO and SPXU. If you’ve ever traded futures, or anything QQQ- or SPY-related and wanted to know at what price would the corresponding asset reach a key whole number level of QQQ or SPY, like 400, 440, 445, or even 447.50, this tool is for you. Key 10x, 5x, and even 2.5x multiples of QQQ and SPY can act as support or resistance for other related-assets. Until now, there hasn’t been an indicator that can serve as an easy visual cue to know exactly when that is about to happen across assets.
This indicator is a fork of the original SPY Price Levels indicator, which only considered SPY-related assets.
Settings:
QQQ/SPY 2.5x: Show closest levels above and below that are multiples of 2.5 on QQQ
QQQ/SPY 5x: Show closest levels above and below that are multiples of 5 on QQQ
QQQ/SPY 10x: Show closest levels above and below that are multiples of 10 on QQQ
Show QQQ/SPY Price Label: Show the current QQQ/SPY price
Extend lines to the left: Extend label lines for each price level to the beginning of the chart
Calculations:
This indicator defines the ratio between the price of QQQ/SPY and another NASDAQ/S&P-related asset and uses that multiplier once the user-defined price increments are defined. For example, if /MNQ is at 19000 and QQQ is at 465, then the ratio would be 40.8.
The incremental QQQ levels that are above and below the QQQ price are calculated using the following equations:
qqqLevelUp = _multiplier * math.ceil(_qqqClose / _multiplier)
qqqLevelDown = _multiplier * math.floor(_qqqClose / _multiplier)
The conversion ratio is then multiplied by that amount to get the final estimated corresponding price using the calculation:
levelUp := _conversion * qqqLevelUp
levelDown := _conversion * qqqLevelDown
For leveraged assets, the conversion must be used on the difference between the current QQQ price and the incremental upper and lower levels.
For example, the calculation for the next level up looks like the following:
levelUpDelta := math.abs(_qqqClose - qqqLevelUp)
levelUp := close + _conversion * (levelUpDelta * _leverage)
This logic is identical for SPY-related assets.
How to Use:
The QQQ and SPY Price Levels indicator aims to be as unobtrusive as possible. The default view shows 3 labels and 2 lines that are all aligned to the right of the main chart, so that it interferes as little as possible with any other indicators. It can be added to any /NQ or /MNQ futures chart, SQQQ, TQQQ, and, of course, QQQ as well as any /ES /MES futures chart, SPXU, UPRO, SPX, and of course SPY. The most immediate price levels for each multiplier appears above and below the current price along with the price of QQQ/SPY.
For example, MNQU2024 is currently at 19594. By looking at the indicator the next QQQ increment below is at 475, or 19556 on the MNQU2024 chart. This potential support is marked with a green label that shows both prices. The next increment above is at QQQ 477.50, or 19659 on the MESU2024 chart. And the QQQ price itself, is also shown (and can be removed) at 475.92.
QQQ and SPY price increments of 2.5, 5, and 10 tend to consistently act at the very least as emotional support and resistance levels. Weak, or weakening volume and/or momentum when these levels are hit can trigger a strong rejection, and can sometimes precipitate lengthy consolidation periods at those levels. Watching an NASDAQ- and S&P 500-related asset come to a halt, fall off a cliff, or react in some other unintuitive way could very well be the result of a QQQ/SPY level being reached. Even though many of us know that this relationship exists, it’s easy to forget. So, this indicator helps to ensure that its users keep that relationship front and center.
By extending the lines into the past on QQQ/SPY and their related assets, you can see what reactions happened at these key levels.
Other Usage Notes and Limitations:
The calculations used only provide an estimated relationship or a close approximation, and are not exact.
It's important for traders to be aware of the limitations of any indicator and to use them as part of a broader, well-rounded trading strategy that includes risk management, fundamental analysis, and other tools that can help with reducing false signals, determining trend direction, and providing additional confirmation for a trade decision. Diversifying strategies and not relying solely on one type of indicator or analysis can help mitigate some of these risks.
US Market Real Value Adjusted for CPI and Dollar IndexUS Market Real Value Adjusted for CPI and Dollar Index
Provides quick access to this formula: (SP:SPX+NASDAQ_DLY:IXIC+TVC:DJI+CAPITALCOM:RTY)/4/(ECONOMICS:USCPI*TVC:DXY*100)
Overview:
This indicator provides a dynamic view of the US stock market's real value, adjusted for inflation and currency strength. It combines major stock indices including the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000, and adjusts the composite index using the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US Dollar Index (DXY). This adjustment helps to reveal the true market performance, stripped of inflationary effects and currency valuation changes.
Key Features:
Composite Index Calculation: Averages the prices of SPX, IXIC, DJI, and RTY to create a broad market overview.
Inflation Adjustment: Uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation, ensuring that the real value changes in the stock market are highlighted.
Currency Strength Adjustment: Applies the DXY to account for fluctuations in the strength of the US dollar, providing insights into how currency variations impact market valuation.
Dynamic Base Calculation: Utilizes a rolling window to dynamically update base values, allowing for continuous reassessment of the market’s adjusted value as new data becomes available.
This indicator provides:
Real Value Insights: By adjusting for both inflation and currency strength, this indicator offers a more accurate measure of the underlying market conditions.
Dynamic Updates: With a rolling window approach, the indicator continually adapts, providing up-to-date information.
Strategic Decisions: Helps in identifying true market growth or decline periods, aiding in strategic investment planning.
Usage:
To use this indicator, simply add it to your chart, and it will automatically display the adjusted composite index. This index can be particularly useful for investors looking to understand underlying market trends beyond nominal price movements, helping in making more informed investment decisions when comparing certain tickers to an average of the major US stock market indexes, adjusted for inflation and the strength of the US dollar.
Example Use Case:
A typical use case might involve comparing periods of high inflation to see how the overall US stock market performed in real terms, not just nominal terms. This can indicate whether the market growth was genuine or merely a reflection of inflation. By comparing this result to an average of these major indexes without adjusting for inflation or currency strength changes, you can see how significantly these forces can impact real gains or losses.
