Komut dosyalarını "momentum" için ara
[RS]Leading Momentum Oscilator V0EXPERIMENTAL: Momentum oscilator based on offset, can also be used for divergence/convergence
rs_Chande's Momentum Oscilator - MMAChande's Momentum Oscilator, with added MA's for momentum strenght.
MomentumMomentum Indicator for Day Trading
This Momentum Indicator has been specifically designed for day traders to help identify and measure the speed and strength of price movements in real time. By analyzing short-term price swings, it highlights periods of acceleration or deceleration in market activity.
MomentumMomentum is differences between closing price and closing price on day before n day.
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モメンタムは、n日前の終値と当日終値の差を数値化したものです。
モメンタムの移動平均線も同時に作成します。
Absolute Momentum (Time Series Momentum)Absolute momentum , also known as time series momentum , focuses on the trend of an asset's own past performance to predict its future performance. It involves analyzing an asset's own historical performance, rather than comparing it to other assets.
The strategy determines whether an asset's price is exhibiting an upward (positive momentum) or downward (negative momentum) trend by assessing the asset's return over a given period (standard look-back period: 12 months or approximately 250 trading days). Some studies recommend calculating momentum by deducting the corresponding Treasury bill rate from the measured performance.
Absolute Momentum Indicator
The Absolute Momentum Indicator displays the rolling 12-month performance (measured over 250 trading days) and plots it against a horizontal line representing 0%. If the indicator crosses above this line, it signifies positive absolute momentum, and conversely, crossing below indicates negative momentum. An additional, optional look-back period input field can be accessed through the settings.
Hint: This indicator is a simplified version, as some academic approaches measure absolute momentum by subtracting risk-free rates from the 12-month performance. However, even with higher rates, the values will still remain close to the 0% line.
Benefits of Absolute Momentum
Absolute momentum, which should not be confused with relative momentum or the momentum indicator, serves as a timing instrument for both individual assets and entire markets.
Gary Antonacci , a key contributor to the absolute momentum strategy (find study below), emphasizes its effectiveness in multi-asset portfolios and its importance in long-only investing. This is particularly evident in a) reducing downside volatility and b) mitigating behavioral biases.
Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen document significant 'time series momentum' across various asset classes, including equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures, in 58 liquid instruments (find study below). There's a notable persistence in returns ranging from one to 12 months, which tends to partially reverse over longer periods. This pattern aligns with sentiment theories suggesting initial under-reaction followed by delayed over-reaction.
Despite its surprising ease of implementation, the academic community has successfully measured the effects of absolute momentum across decades and in every major asset class, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange (FX).
Strategies for Implementing Absolute Momentum:
To Buy a Stock:
Select a Look-Back Period: Choose a historical period to analyze the stock's performance. A common period is 12 months, but this can vary based on your investment strategy.
Calculate Excess Return: Determine the stock's excess return over this period. You can also assume a risk-free rate of "0" to simplify the process.
Evaluate Momentum:
If the excess return is positive, it indicates positive absolute momentum. This suggests the stock is in an upward trend and could be a good buying opportunity.
If the excess return is negative, it suggests negative momentum, and you might want to delay buying.
Consider further conditions: Align your decision with broader market trends, economic indicators, or fundamental analysis, for additional context.
To Sell a Stock You Own:
Regularly Monitor Performance: Use the same look-back period as for buying (e.g., 12 months) to regularly assess the stock's performance.
Check for Negative Momentum: Calculate the excess return for the look-back period. Again, you can assume a risk-free rate of "0" to simplify the process. If the stock shows negative momentum, it might be time to consider selling.
Consider further conditions:Align your decision with broader market trends, economic indicators, or fundamental analysis, for additional context.
Important note: Note: Entering a position (i.e., buying) based on positive absolute momentum doesn't necessarily mean you must sell it if it later exhibits negative absolute momentum. You can initiate a position using positive absolute momentum as an entry indicator and then continue holding it based on other criteria, such as fundamental analysis.
General Tips:
Reassessment Frequency: Decide how often you will reassess the momentum (monthly, quarterly, etc.).
Remember, while absolute momentum provides a systematic approach, it's recommendable to consider it as part of a broader investment strategy that includes diversification, risk management, fundamental analysis, etc.
Relevant Capital Market Studies:
Antonacci, Gary. "Absolute momentum: A simple rule-based strategy and universal trend-following overlay." Available at SSRN 2244633 (2013)
Moskowitz, Tobias J., Yao Hua Ooi, and Lasse Heje Pedersen. "Time series momentum." Journal of financial economics 104.2 (2012): 228-250
New Momentum IndicatorThe Momentum Indicator was created by Darryl W Maddox (Stocks & Commodities V. 9:4 (158-159)) and it is one of the simplest and most powerful indicators out there. Buy when the indicator goes over 0 and sell when it falls below 0
Let me know what other indicators you would like to see me write a script for!
ATR Momentum [QuantVue]ATR Momentum is a dynamic technical analysis tool designed to assess the momentum of a securities price movement. It utilizes the comparison between a faster short-term Average True Range (ATR) and a slower long-term ATR to determine whether momentum is increasing or decreasing.
This indicator visually represents the momentum relationship by plotting both ATR values as lines on a chart and applying color fill between the lines based on if momentum is increasing or decreasing.
When the short-term ATR is greater than the long-term ATR, representing increasing momentum, the area between them is filled with green.
Conversely, when the short-term ATR is less than the long-term ATR line, the area between them is filled with red. This red fill indicates decreasing momentum.
Don't hesitate to reach out with any questions or concerns.
We hope you enjoy!
Cheers.
Ultimate Momentum"Ultimate Momentum" – Elevating Your Momentum Analysis
Experience a refined approach to momentum analysis with "Ultimate Momentum," a sophisticated indicator seamlessly combining the strengths of RSI and CCI. This tool offers a nuanced understanding of market dynamics with the following features:
1. Harmonious Fusion: Witness the dynamic interplay between RSI and CCI, providing a comprehensive understanding of market nuances.
2. Optimized CCI Dynamics: Delve confidently into market intricacies with optimized CCI parameters, enhancing synergy with RSI for a nuanced perspective on trends.
3. Standardized Readings: "Ultimate Momentum" standardizes RSI and CCI, ensuring consistency and reliability in readings for refined signals.
4. Native TradingView Integration: Immerse yourself in the reliability of native TradingView codes for RSI and CCI, ensuring stability and compatibility.
How RSI and CCI Work Together:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Captures price momentum with precision, measuring the speed and change of price movements.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index): Strategically integrated to complement RSI, offering a unique perspective on price fluctuations and potential trend reversals.
Why "Ultimate Momentum"?
In a crowded landscape, "Ultimate Momentum" stands out, redefining how traders interpret momentum. Gain a profound understanding of market dynamics, spot trend reversals, and make informed decisions.
Your Insights Matter:
Share your suggestions to enhance "Ultimate Momentum" in the comments. Your feedback is crucial as we strive to deliver an unparalleled momentum analysis tool.
Price Weighted MomentumThis indicator is a momentum indicator that is standardized by price. A.K.A (momentum / price)
The purpose of this indicator is to compare momentum between different assets regardless of price.
EX: Bitcoin will always have more momentum than XLE because it's price is $19000 (as of writing this) compared to XLE's price of $40 (as of writing this). But if you divide the momentum by price, you get a standardized value to better compare the 2.
This indicator can be used to compare everything on TradingView.
HOW TO USE/INTERPRET
Positive values denote an uptrend
Negative values denote a downtrend
A value of 0 (or very very close to 0) denotes sideways price action
WHAT'S INCLUDED
Price Weighted Momentum (Unsmoothed by default)
Optional smoothing with either a simple or exponential moving average
Side note: I only added functionality of smoothing for EMA and SMA for my personal uses, but if you want a version of this with another way of smoothing (e.g. HMA, SSMA, etc.) that you would like, the cost of me adding that for you is a follow on Twitter. Just DM me there :)
TS - Momentum OscillatorWhat is it?
RMI & EMA based momentum oscillator to act as a supporting indicator to the rest of the Tradespot indicator suite. Combined trading is made intuitive and accessible to traders of all levels.
Momentum can help you confirm an existing trade, whether to hold position and avoid fakeouts. or it may let you know when the market is losing steam for example and could be a good point to take profit.
Access
This is one of the indicators in our greater trading suite that we offer. Just PM me for access!
ADX Momentum Shaded CandlesDescription:
The "ADX Momentum Shaded Candles" indicator (ADXMSC) is an overlay indicator that enhances candlestick charts by adding shading based on the momentum derived from the Average Directional Index (ADX). This indicator provides visual cues about the strength of bullish and bearish momentum by adjusting the transparency of the candlesticks.
How it Works:
The indicator utilizes the ADX indicator to calculate the values of +DI (Directional Indicator Plus) and -DI (Directional Indicator Minus) based on user-defined parameters. It then determines the transparency levels for the bullish and bearish candlesticks based on the calculated values of +DI and -DI. Higher values of +DI or -DI result in lower transparency levels, while lower values increase transparency.
Transparency Calculation:
The transparency of the bullish and bearish candlesticks is adjusted based on the values of +DI and -DI, which reflect the momentum of the price movement. Transparency is inversely proportional to these values, with higher values resulting in lower transparency. To calculate transparency, the indicator uses the formula 100 minus the value of +DI or -DI multiplied by 2. This ensures that higher values of +DI or -DI produce more opaque candlesticks.
Usage:
To effectively use the "ADX Momentum Shaded Candles" indicator (ADXMSC), follow these steps:
1. Apply the indicator to your chart by adding it from the available indicators.
2. Observe the candlesticks on the chart:
- Bullish candlesticks are represented by the original bullish color with adjusted transparency.
- Bearish candlesticks are represented by the original bearish color with adjusted transparency.
3. Analyze the transparency levels of the candlesticks to assess the strength of bullish and bearish momentum. Less transparent candlesticks indicate stronger momentum, while more transparent ones suggest weaker momentum.
4. Combine the visual information from the shaded candlesticks with other technical analysis tools, such as support and resistance levels, trend lines, or oscillators, to confirm potential trade opportunities.
5. Customize the indicator's parameters, such as the ADX length and smoothing, to suit your trading preferences.
6. Implement appropriate risk management strategies, including setting stop-loss orders and position sizing, to manage your trades effectively and protect your capital.
Momentum with ATR and Volatility [ST]Momentum with ATR and Volatility
Description in English:
This indicator combines price momentum with market volatility to identify entry and exit points in trades.
It utilizes the difference in closing prices (momentum) and the Average True Range (ATR) to measure volatility. Buy and sell signals are generated based on the combination of these two components.
Detailed Explanation:
Configuration:
Momentum Length: This input defines the period for calculating the momentum, which is the difference between the closing prices. The default value is 10.
ATR Length: This input defines the period for calculating the Average True Range (ATR), which measures market volatility. The default value is 14.
ATR Threshold: This input defines the threshold multiplier for the ATR to generate buy and sell signals. The default value is 3.5.
Momentum Calculation:
Momentum is calculated as the difference between the current closing price and the closing price momentum_length periods ago.
ATR Calculation:
The ATR is calculated based on the specified length and is used to measure market volatility.
Buy and Sell Signals:
Buy Signal: Generated when momentum is positive, the current close is higher than the previous close, and momentum is greater than ATR * threshold.
Sell Signal: Generated when momentum is negative, the current close is lower than the previous close, and momentum is less than -ATR * threshold.
Plotting:
Buy signals are plotted as green triangles below the bars.
Sell signals are plotted as red triangles above the bars.
Momentum and ATR thresholds are plotted in a separate panel below the main chart.
Momentum is plotted as a blue line.
The ATR threshold lines are plotted as solid orange lines.
Indicator Benefits:
Momentum Measurement: Helps traders gauge the momentum of price movements.
Volatility Measurement: Utilizes ATR to measure market volatility, providing a more comprehensive analysis.
Visual Cues: Provides clear visual signals for buy and sell points, aiding in making informed trading decisions.
Justification of Component Combination:
Combining momentum with ATR provides a more robust measure of potential entry and exit points by considering both price movement and market volatility.
How Components Work Together:
The script calculates momentum and ATR for the specified periods.
It generates buy and sell signals based on the conditions of momentum and ATR.
The signals and values are plotted on the chart to provide a visual representation, helping traders identify potential trading opportunities.
Título: Indicador de Momentum com ATR e Volatilidade
Descrição em Português:
Este indicador combina o momentum do preço com a volatilidade do mercado para identificar pontos de entrada e saída em operações.
Utiliza a diferença entre os preços de fechamento (momentum) e o Average True Range (ATR) para medir a volatilidade. Sinais de compra e venda são gerados com base na combinação desses dois componentes.
Explicação Detalhada:
Configuração:
Comprimento do Momentum: Este parâmetro define o período para calcular o momentum, que é a diferença entre os preços de fechamento. O valor padrão é 10.
Comprimento do ATR: Este parâmetro define o período para calcular o Average True Range (ATR), que mede a volatilidade do mercado. O valor padrão é 14.
Limite do ATR: Este parâmetro define o multiplicador de limite para o ATR para gerar sinais de compra e venda. O valor padrão é 3.5.
Cálculo do Momentum:
O momentum é calculado como a diferença entre o preço de fechamento atual e o preço de fechamento momentum_length períodos atrás.
Cálculo do ATR:
O ATR é calculado com base no comprimento especificado e é usado para medir a volatilidade do mercado.
Sinais de Compra e Venda:
Sinal de Compra: Gerado quando o momentum é positivo, o fechamento atual é maior que o fechamento anterior, e o momentum é maior que ATR * threshold.
Sinal de Venda: Gerado quando o momentum é negativo, o fechamento atual é menor que o fechamento anterior, e o momentum é menor que -ATR * threshold.
Plotagem:
Sinais de compra são plotados como triângulos verdes abaixo das barras.
Sinais de venda são plotados como triângulos vermelhos acima das barras.
O momentum e os limites do ATR são plotados em um painel separado abaixo do gráfico principal.
O momentum é plotado como uma linha azul.
As linhas de limite do ATR são plotadas como linhas laranjas sólidas.
Benefícios do Indicador:
Medição do Momentum: Ajuda os traders a avaliar o momentum dos movimentos de preços.
Medição da Volatilidade: Utiliza o ATR para medir a volatilidade do mercado, proporcionando uma análise mais abrangente.
Sinais Visuais: Fornece sinais visuais claros para pontos de compra e venda, auxiliando na tomada de decisões informadas.
Justificação da Combinação de Componentes:
Combinar o momentum com o ATR fornece uma medida mais robusta de potenciais pontos de entrada e saída ao considerar tanto o movimento dos preços quanto a volatilidade do mercado.
Como os Componentes Funcionam Juntos:
O script calcula o momentum e o ATR para os períodos especificados.
Gera sinais de compra e venda com base nas condições de momentum e ATR.
Os sinais e valores são plotados no gráfico para fornecer uma representação visual, ajudando os traders a identificar oportunidades de negociação potenciais.
MLB Momentum IndicatorMLB Momentum Indicator is a no‐lookahead technical indicator designed to signal intraday trend shifts and potential reversal points. It combines several well‐known technical components—Moving Averages, MACD, RSI, and optional ADX & Volume filters—to deliver high‐probability buy/sell signals on your chart.
Below is an overview of how it works and what each part does:
1. Moving Average Trend Filter
The script uses two moving averages (fast and slow) to determine the primary trend:
isUpTrend if Fast MA > Slow MA
isDownTrend if Fast MA < Slow MA
You can select the MA method—SMA, EMA, or WMA—and customize lengths.
Why it matters: The indicator only gives bullish signals if the trend is up, and bearish signals if the trend is down, helping avoid trades that go against the bigger flow.
2. MACD Confirmation (Momentum)
Uses MACD (with user‐defined Fast, Slow, and Signal lengths) to check momentum:
macdBuySignal if the MACD line crosses above its signal line (bullish)
macdSellSignal if the MACD line crosses below its signal line (bearish)
Why it matters: MACD crossovers confirm an emerging momentum shift, aligning signals with actual price acceleration rather than random fluctuation.
3. RSI Overbought/Oversold Filter
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is calculated with a chosen length, plus Overbought & Oversold thresholds:
For long signals: the RSI must be below the Overbought threshold (e.g. 70).
For short signals: the RSI must be above the Oversold threshold (e.g. 30).
Why it matters: Prevents buying when price is already overbought or shorting when price is too oversold, filtering out possible poor‐risk trades.
4. Optional ADX Filter (Trend Strength)
If enabled, ADX must exceed a chosen threshold (e.g., 20) for a signal to be valid:
This ensures you’re only taking trades in markets that have sufficient directional momentum.
Why it matters: It weeds out choppy, sideways conditions where signals are unreliable.
5. Optional Volume Filter (High‐Participation Moves)
If enabled, the indicator checks whether current volume is above a certain multiple of its moving average (e.g., 1.5× average volume).
Why it matters: High volume often indicates stronger institutional interest, validating potential breakouts or reversals.
6. ATR & Chandelier (Visual Reference)
For reference only, the script can display ATR‐based stop levels or a Chandelier Exit line:
ATR (Average True Range) helps gauge volatility and can inform stop‐loss distances.
Chandelier Exit is a trailing stop technique that adjusts automatically as price moves.
Why it matters: Though this version of the script doesn’t execute trades, these lines help you see how far to place stops or how to ride a trend.
7. Final Bullish / Bearish Signal
When all conditions (trend, MACD, RSI, optional ADX, optional Volume) line up for a long, a green “Long” arrow appears.
When all conditions line up for a short, a red “Short” arrow appears.
Why it matters: You get a clear, on‐chart signal for each potential entry, rather than needing to check multiple indicators manually.
8. Session & Date Filtering
The script allows choosing a start/end date and an optional session window (e.g. 09:30–16:00).
Why it matters: Helps limit signals to a specific historical backtest range or trading hours, which can be crucial for day traders (e.g., stock market hours only).
Putting It All Together
Primary Trend → ensures you trade in line with the bigger direction.
MACD & RSI → confirm momentum and avoid overbought/oversold extremes.
ADX & Volume → optional filters for strong trend strength & genuine interest.
Arrows → each potential buy (Long) or sell (Short) signal is clearly shown on your chart.
Use Cases
5‐Minute Scalping: Shorter RSI/MACD lengths to catch small, frequent intraday moves.
Swing Trading: Larger MAs, bigger RSI thresholds, and using ADX to filter only major trends.
Cautious Approach: Enable volume & ADX filters to reduce false signals in choppy markets.
Benefits & Limitations
Benefits:
Consolidates multiple indicators into one overlay.
Clear buy/sell signals with optional dynamic volatility references.
Flexible user inputs adapt to different trading styles/timeframes.
Limitations:
Like all technical indicators, it can produce false signals in sideways or news‐driven markets.
Success depends heavily on user settings and the particular market’s behavior.
Summary
The MLB Momentum Indicator combines a trend filter (MAs), momentum check (MACD), overbought/oversold gating (RSI), and optional ADX/Volume filters to create clear buy/sell arrows on your chart. This approach encourages trading in sync with both trend and momentum, and helps avoid suboptimal entries when volume or trend strength is lacking. It can be tailored to scalp micro‐moves on lower timeframes or used for higher‐timeframe swing trading by adjusting the input settings.
ATR + Momentum Shifts w/Take ProfitThis script is a technical analysis indicator designed to assist in identifying potential entry points and setting take profit levels in trading. It combines the Average True Range (ATR) indicator, momentum shifts, and customizable take profit levels to provide insights into potential market movements.
Differences from Currently Published Ones:
This script is unique due to its use of a combination of elements:
ATR and Momentum: The script combines the ATR indicator to provide dynamic support and resistance levels with the momentum indicator to identify shifts in the underlying momentum.
Customizable Take Profit Levels: It offers the ability to set take profit levels based on customizable multipliers of the ATR, helping traders manage potential profits.
How to Use:
ATR Bands: The script plots upper and lower ATR bands as potential dynamic support and resistance levels.
Shift Arrows: Arrows are plotted below bars for potential long entry opportunities (green triangle) and above bars for potential short entry opportunities (yellow triangle).
Take Profit Levels: The script also plots take profit levels both above and below the source price based on the ATR multipliers set in the inputs.
Markets and Conditions:
This script can be used across various financial markets, including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. It's most effective in trending markets where momentum shifts can signal potential reversals or continuation of trends. Traders should consider the following conditions:
Trend Confirmation: Look for momentum shifts in the direction of the prevailing trend for higher probability setups.
Volatility: Higher volatility can amplify ATR movements and subsequently affect the placement of ATR bands and take profit levels.
Risk Management: Always implement proper risk management strategies to protect your capital.
Additional Considerations:
Customization: Traders can adjust input parameters like ATR length, momentum length, and take profit multipliers to match their trading style and market conditions.
Combining with Other Indicators: Consider using this indicator in conjunction with other technical indicators or chart patterns for confirmation.
Simple Volatility MomentumOverview:
The Simple Volatility Momentum indicator calculates the mean and standard deviation of the changes of price (returns) using various types of moving averages (Incremental, Rolling, and Exponential). With quantifying the dispersion of price data around the mean, statistical insights are provided on the volatility and the movements of price and returns. The indicator also ranks the mean absolute value of the changes of price over a specified time period which helps you assess the strength of the "trend" and "momentum" regardless of the direction of returns.
Simple Volatility Momentum
This indicator can be used for mean reversion strategies and "momentum" or trend based strategies.
The indicator calculates the average return as the momentum metric and then gets the moving average of the average return and standard deviations from average return average. On the options you can determine if you want to use 1 or 2 standard deviation bands or have both of them enabled.
Settings:
Source: By default it's at close.
M Length: This is the length of the "momentum".
Rank Length: This is the length of the rank calculation of absolute value of the average return
MA Type: This is the different type of calculations for the mean and standard deviation. By default its at incremental.
Smoothing factor: (Only used if you choose the exponential MA type.)
The absolute value of the average return helps you see the strength of the "momentum" and trend. If there is a low ranking of the absolute value of the average return then you can eventually expect it to increase which means that the average return is trending, leading to trending price moves. If the Mean ABS rank value is at or near the maximum value 100 and the average return is at -2 standard deviation from the mean, you can see it as the negative momentum or trend being "finished". Similarly, if the Mean ABS value is near or at the maximum value 100 and the average return is at +2 standard deviation from the mean, you can view the uptrend, as "finished" and the Mean ABS rank can't really go higher than 100.
Moving Average Calculations type:
Incremental: Incremental moving averages use an incremental approach to update the moving average by adding the newest data point and subtracting the oldest one.
Exponential: The exponential moving average gives more weight to recent data points while still considering older ones. This is achieved by applying a smooth factor to the previous EMA value and the current data point. EMA's react more quickly to recent changes in the data compared to simple moving averages, making them useful for short term trends and momentum in financial markets.
Rolling: The moving average is calculated by taking the average of a fixed number of data points within a defined window. As new data becomes available, the window moves forward and the average is recalculated. Rolling Moving Averages are useful for smoothing out short-fluctuations and identifying trends over time.
Important thing to note about indicators involving bands and "momentum" or "trend" or prices:
For the explanation we will assume that stock returns follow a normal distribution and price follows a log normal distribution. Please note that in the live market this assumption isn't always true. Many people incorrectly use standard deviations on prices and trade them as mean reversion strategies or overbought or oversold levels which is not what standard deviations are meant for. Assuming you have applied the log transformation on the standard deviation bands (if your input is raw price then you should use a log transformation to remove the skewness of price), and you have a range of 2 standard deviations from the mean, under the empirical rule with enough occurrences 95% of the values will be within the 2 standard deviation range. This doesn't mean that if price falls to the bottom of the 2 standard deviation bound, there is a 95% chance it will revert back to mean, this is incorrect and not how standard deviations or mean reversion works.
"MOMENTUM"
In finance "momentum" refers to the rate of change of a time series data point. It shows the persistence or tendency for a data series to continue moving in its current direction. In finance, "momentum" based strategies capitalize on the observed tendency of assets that have performed well (or poorly) in the recent past to continue performing well (or poorly) in the near future. This persistence is often observed in various financial instruments including stocks, currencies and commodities.
"Momentum" is commonly calculated with the average return, and relies on the assumption that assets with positive "momentum" or a positive average return will likely continue to perform well in the short to medium term, while assets with a negative average return are expected to continue underperforming. This average return or expected value is derived from historical observations and statistical analysis of previous price movements. However, real markets are subject to levels of efficiencies, market fluctuations, randomness, and may not always produce consistent returns over time involving momentum based strategies.
Mean Reversion:
In finance, the average return is an important parameter in mean reversion strategies. Using statistical methodologies, mean reversion strategies aim to exploit the deviations from the historical average return by identifying instances where current prices and their changes diverge from their expected levels based on past performance. This approach involves statistical analysis and predictive modelling techniques to check where and when the average rate of change is likely to revert towards the mean. It's important to know that mean reversion is a temporary state and will not always be present in a specific timeseries.
Using the average return over price offers several advantages in finance and trading since it is less sensitive to extreme price movements or outliers compared to raw price data. Price itself contains a distribution that is usually positively-skewed and has no upper bound. Mean reversion typically occurs in distributions where extreme values are followed by a tendency for the variable to return towards its mean over time, however the probability distribution of price has no tendency for values to revert towards any specific level. Instead, values may continue to increase without a bound. Returns themself contain more stationary behavior than price levels. Mean reversion strategies rely on the assumption that deviations from the mean will eventually revert back to the mean. Returns, being more likely to exhibit stationary, are better suited for mean reversion based strategies.
The distribution of returns are often more symmetrically distributed around their mean compared to price distributions. This symmetry makes it easier to identify deviations from the mean and assess the likelihood of mean reversion occurrence. Returns are also less sensitive to trends and long-term price movements compared to price levels. Mean reversion strategies aim to exploit deviations from mean, which can be obscured when analyzing raw price data since raw price is almost always trending. Returns can filter out the trend component of price movements, making it easier to identify opportunities.
Stationary Process: Implication that properties like mean and variance remain relatively constant over time.
Machine Learning Momentum Index (MLMI) [Zeiierman]█ Overview
The Machine Learning Momentum Index (MLMI) represents the next step in oscillator trading. By blending traditional momentum analysis with machine learning, MLMI delivers a potent and dynamic tool that aligns with the complexities of modern financial landscapes. Offering traders an adaptive way to understand and act on market momentum and trends, this oscillator provides real-time insights into market momentum and prevailing trends.
█ How It Works:
Momentum Analysis: MLMI employs a dual-layer analysis, utilizing quick and slow weighted moving averages (WMA) of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to gauge the market's momentum and direction.
Machine Learning Integration: Through the k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) algorithm, MLMI intelligently examines historical data to make more accurate momentum predictions, adapting to the intricate patterns of the market.
MLMI's precise calculation involves:
Weighted Moving Averages: Calculations of quick (5-period) and slow (20-period) WMAs of the RSI to track short-term and long-term momentum.
k-Nearest Neighbors Algorithm: Distances between current parameters and previous data are measured, and the nearest neighbors are used for predictive modeling.
Trend Analysis: Recognition of prevailing trends through the relationship between quick and slow-moving averages.
█ How to use
The Machine Learning Momentum Index (MLMI) can be utilized in much the same way as traditional trend and momentum oscillators, providing key insights into market direction and strength. What sets MLMI apart is its integration of artificial intelligence, allowing it to adapt dynamically to market changes and offer a more nuanced and responsive analysis.
Identifying Trend Direction and Strength: The MLMI serves as a tool to recognize market trends, signaling whether the momentum is upward or downward. It also provides insights into the intensity of the momentum, helping traders understand both the direction and strength of prevailing market trends.
Identifying Consolidation Areas: When the MLMI Prediction line and the WMA of the MLMI Prediction line become flat/oscillate around the mid-level, it's a strong sign that the market is in a consolidation phase. This insight from the MLMI allows traders to recognize periods of market indecision.
Recognizing Overbought or Oversold Conditions: By identifying levels where the market may be overbought or oversold, MLMI offers insights into potential price corrections or reversals.
█ Settings
Prediction Data (k)
This parameter controls the number of neighbors to consider while making a prediction using the k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) algorithm. By modifying the value of k, you can change how sensitive the prediction is to local fluctuations in the data.
A smaller value of k will make the prediction more sensitive to local variations and can lead to a more erratic prediction line.
A larger value of k will consider more neighbors, thus making the prediction more stable but potentially less responsive to sudden changes.
Trend length
This parameter controls the length of the trend used in computing the momentum. This length refers to the number of periods over which the momentum is calculated, affecting how quickly the indicator reacts to changes in the underlying price movements.
A shorter trend length (smaller momentumWindow) will make the indicator more responsive to short-term price changes, potentially generating more signals but at the risk of more false alarms.
A longer trend length (larger momentumWindow) will make the indicator smoother and less responsive to short-term noise, but it may lag in reacting to significant price changes.
Please note that the Machine Learning Momentum Index (MLMI) might not be effective on higher timeframes, such as daily or above. This limitation arises because there may not be enough data at these timeframes to provide accurate momentum and trend analysis. To overcome this challenge and make the most of what MLMI has to offer, it's recommended to use the indicator on lower timeframes.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
