Zweig Market Breadth Thrust Indicator StrategyThe Breadth Thrust Indicator is a technical indicator which determines market momentum, signaling the start of a potential new bull market.
The Breadth Thrust Indicator was developed by Martin Zweig, an American stock investor, financial analyst, and investment adviser. According to Zweig, the concept is based on the principle that the sudden change of money in the investment markets elevates stocks and signals increased liquidity. In other words, this indicator is all about how quickly the NYSE's advancing and declining numbers go from poor to great in a compressed time period.
A "Thrust" indicates that the stock market has rapidly changed from an oversold condition to one of strength, but has not yet become overbought. This is very rare and has happened only a few times. Dr . Zweig also points out that most bull markets begin with a Breadth Thrust.
More info can be found at www.investopedia.com
I have inspired by indicator introduced in TradingView by LazyBear and adopted the logic from there. Thanks LazyBear !!!
Though indicator signals the new Bull market, but I have not found much information how to use it in daily market. So I had come up with a strategy, which would allow us to trade SPY, QQQ , AMEX and securities under these markets.
I have used MA setting as 65 (since Zweig indicator setting was 10 days , based on that I set 65 for Hourly chart ... 10d x 6.5 Hrs = 65 in my startegy). You have to change this setting if you change the timeframe. Also , note that this strategy is for Stock Market only.
Strategy Rule/Settings
===================
Select the market type based on your security symbol.
SPY => use NYSE
QQQ => use NASDAQ
any other security => check exchange it was listed and select the corresponding market.
if you dont know , use COMBINED option
BUY
====
when indicator cross 0.40 from below
Note:
1. see how well it picks the bottoms ... example : Nov 2020 ....
2. setting 0.45 is also produces good results , only thing is you get more signals.
EXIT
=====
Exit when indicator cross down from 0.60 . I have used RSI (5) for partial exits. These two are available in settings
Close the whole position when indicator crossing down 0.40
STOP LOSS
=========
defaulted to 5%
Please Note , I have tested SPY , QQQ on Horly chart with MA 65. You need to chnage the MA setting based on your time frame and check the results.
WARNING
========
For the use of educational purposes only
Komut dosyalarını "liquidity" için ara
Simple Momentum Strategy Based on SMA, EMA and VolumeA simple, non short selling (long positions only, i.e. buy low and sell high) strategy. Strategy makes use of simple SMA, EMA and Volume indicators to attempt to enter the market at the most optimum time (i.e. when momentum and price are moving upwards). Optimum time is defined mainly by picking best timing for price moves higher based on upwards momentum.
This script is targeted / meant for an average/typical trader or investor. This is why a non short selling approach was selected for optimisation for this strategy because "typpical", "average" traders and investors usually use basic (i.e. minimum fees / free membership) exchanges that would not usually offer short selling functionality (at least without additional fees). The assumption used here is that only advanced and sophisticated traders and investors would pay for advanced trading platforms that enable short selling, have a risk appetite for short selling and thus use short selling as a strategy.
The results of the strategy are:
In an overall roughly bearish market (backward testing from beginning to end of 2018) i.e. the market immediately following the highs of around 20k USD per BTC, this strategy made a loss of £3231 USD on trades of a maximum of 1 BTC per long position.
But in an overall bullish market, it makes a profit of about $6800 USD from beginning of 2019 onwards by trading a maximum of 1 BTC per long position.
NOTE: All trading involves high risk. Most strategies use past performance and behaviour as indicators of future performance and that is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations too. One limitation is that unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading and since the trades have not actually been executed, the results of those trades themselves do not have any influence on actual market results, which in real life they would have had (no matter how minor). Additionally, simulated results may have under or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also, by their nature, designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Armando Bitmex Liquidation LevelsHi Guys!
- This script show you liquidations levels with leverage of 100X, 50X, 25X & 10X (shorts & longs).
- This indicator "only" works for XBT on Bitmex.
- Other indicators only show the liquidations up to 25X.
- You need to set the time frame according to your graph. e.g. 1, 60, 240, D, 3D, W, etc.
- The idea of this indicator is to help the user to determine those levels where Bitmex hunt liquidity.
Best Regards.
Armando M.
EMA Slope + EMA Cross Strategy (by ChartArt)This strategy uses divergences between three exponential moving averages and their slope directions as well as crosses between the price and these moving averages to switch between a long or short position. The strategy is non-stop in the market and always either long or short.
In addition the moving averages and price bars are colored depending if they are trending up or down.
The strategy was created for the "EURUSD" daily timeframe.
All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Bollinger + RSI, Double Strategy Long-Only (by ChartArt) v1.2This strategy uses the RSI indicator together with the Bollinger Bands to go long when the price is below the lower Bollinger Band (and to close the long trade when this value is above the upper Bollinger band).
This simple strategy only places a long, when both the RSI and the Bollinger Bands indicators are at the same time in a oversold condition.
In this new version 1.2 the strategy was simplified even more than before by going long-only, which made the strategy more successful in backtesting than the previous version (that older version also opened short trades).
This strategy does not repaint and was updated to PineScript version 3.
All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
P.S. For advanced users: If you want also be able to short with the same strategy approach, then please use my older version 1.1:
Pairs Volume FXCM mini accountScript shows the volume of the currency pairs in the FXCM mini account. I set it daily or weekly to see which pair is picking up in activity. My style of currency trading is short holds on the highest volatility. This helps me determine which pairs have the highest volume (or tick activity since there is no true exchange for currency). I use this in conjunction with the other script I wrote, "Pairs Range" which shows which pairs have the highest daily range. This script has a built in 5-sma on each pair. High daily range and high volume is volatility and liquidity. **** This does not include currencies in CHF ****
Golden Cross, SMA 200 Moving Average Strategy (by ChartArt)This famous moving average strategy is very easy to follow to decide when to buy (go long) and when to take profit.
The strategy goes long when the faster SMA 50 (the simple moving average of the last 50 bars) crosses above the slower SMA 200. Orders are closed when the SMA 50 crosses below the SMA 200. This simple strategy does not have any other stop loss or take profit money management logic. The strategy does not short and goes long only!
Here is an article explaining the "golden cross" strategy in more detail:
www.stockopedia.com
On the S&P 500 index (symbol "SPX") this strategy worked on the daily chart 81% since price data is available since 1982. And on the DOW Jones Industrial Average (symbol "DOWI") this strategy worked on the daily chart 55% since price data is available since 1916. The low number of trades is in both cases not statistically significant though.
All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Fractal Breakout Strategy (by ChartArt)This long only strategy determines the price of the last fractal top and enters a trade when the price breaks above the last fractal top. The strategy also calculates the average price of the last fractal tops to get the trend direction. The strategy exits the long trade, when the average of the fractal tops is falling (when the trend is lower highs as measured by fractals). And the user can manually set a time delay of this exit condition. The default setting is a long strategy exit always 3 bars after the long entry condition appeared.
In addition as gimmicks the fractals tops can be highlighted (the default is blue) and a line can be drawn based on the fractal tops.This fractal top line is colored by the fractal top average trend in combination with the fractal breakout condition.
This strategy works better on higher time-frames (weekly and monthly), but it also works on the daily and some other time-frames. This strategy does not repaint, no repainting.
P.S. I thank Tradingview user barracuda who helped me with the time based exit condition code. And user RicardoSantos for coding the definition of the fractal top, which he uses in his " Fractals" scripts.
All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Daily Close Comparison Strategy (by ChartArt via sirolf2009)Comparing daily close prices as a strategy.
This strategy is equal to the very popular "ANN Strategy" coded by sirolf2009(1) which calculates the percentage difference of the daily close price, but this bar-bone version works completely without his Artificial Neural Network (ANN) part.
Main difference besides stripping out the ANN is that my version uses close prices instead of OHLC4 prices, because they perform better in backtesting. And the default threshold is set to 0 to keep it simple instead of 0.0014 with a larger step value of 0.001 instead of 0.0001. Just like the ANN strategy this strategy goes long if the close of the current day is larger than the close price of the last day. If the inverse logic is true, the strategy goes short (last close larger current close). (2)
This basic strategy does not have any stop loss or take profit money management logic. And I repeat, the credit for the fundamental code idea goes to sirolf2009.
(2) Because the multi-time-frame close of the current day is future data, meaning not available in live-trading (also described as repainting), is the reason why this strategy and the original "ANN Strategy" coded by sirolf2009 perform so excellent in backtesting.
All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
(1) You can get the original code by sirolf2009 including the ANN as indicator here:
(1) and this is sirolf2009's very popular strategy version of his ANN:
MACD + Stochastic, Double Strategy (by ChartArt)This strategy combines the classic stochastic strategy to buy when the stochastic is oversold with a classic MACD strategy to buy when the MACD histogram value goes above the zero line. Only difference to the classic stochastic is a default setting of 71 for overbought (classic setting 80) and 29 for oversold (classic setting 20).
Therefore this strategy goes long if the MACD histogram goes above zero and the stochastic indicator detects a oversold condition (value below 29). If the inverse logic is true, the strategy goes short (stochastic overbought condition with a value above 71 and the MACD histogram falling below the zero line value).
Please be aware that this pure double strategy using simply two classic indicators does not have any stop loss or take profit money management logic.
All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Bollinger + RSI, Double Strategy (by ChartArt) v1.1This strategy uses the RSI indicator together with the Bollinger Bands to sell when the price is above the upper Bollinger Band (and to buy when this value is below the lower band). This simple strategy only triggers when both the RSI and the Bollinger Band indicators are at the same time in a overbought or oversold condition.
UPDATE
In this updated version 1.1 the strategy was both simplified for the user (less inputs) and made more successful in backtesting by now using a 200 period for the SMA which is the basis for the Bollinger Band. I also reduced the number of color alerts to show fewer, but more relevant trading opportunities.
And just like the first version this strategy does not use close prices from higher-time frame and should not repaint after the current candle has closed. It might repaint like every Tradingview indicator while the current candle hasn't closed.
All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
P.S. For advanced users if you want access to more functions of this strategy script, then please use version 1.0:
Bollinger + RSI, Double Strategy (by ChartArt)Bollinger Bands + RSI, Double Strategy
This strategy uses a slower RSI with period 16 to sell when the RSI increases over the value of 55 (or to buy when the value falls below 45), with the classic Bollinger Bands strategy to sell when the price is above the upper Bollinger Band and falls below it (and to buy when the price is below the lower band and rises above it). This strategy only triggers when both the RSI and the Bollinger Bands indicators are at the same time in the described overbought or oversold condition. In addition there are color alerts which can be deactivated.
This basic strategy is based upon the "RSI Strategy" and "Bollinger Bands Strategy" which were created by Tradingview and uses no money management like a trailing stop loss and no scalping methods. Every win/loss trade is simply counted from the last overbought/oversold condition to the next one.
This strategy does not use close prices from higher-time frame and should not repaint after the current candle has closed. It might repaint like every Tradingview indicator while the current candle hasn't closed.
All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Moving Average Consecutive Up/Down Strategy (by ChartArt)This simple strategy goes long (or short) if there are several consecutive increasing (or decreasing) moving average values in a row in the same direction. The bars can be colored using the raw moving average trend. And the background can be colored using the consecutive moving average trend setting. In addition a experimental line of the moving average change can be drawn.
The strategy is based upon the "Consecutive Up/Down Strategy" which was created by Tradingview.
All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
MACD + SMA 200 Strategy (by ChartArt)Here is a combination of the classic MACD (moving average convergence divergence indicator) with the classic slow moving average SMA with period 200 together as a strategy.
This strategy goes long if the MACD histogram and the MACD momentum are both above zero and the fast MACD moving average is above the slow MACD moving average. As additional long filter the recent price has to be above the SMA 200. If the inverse logic is true, the strategy goes short. For the worst case there is a max intraday equity loss of 50% filter.
Save another $999 bucks with my free strategy.
This strategy works in the backtest on the daily chart of Bitcoin, as well as on the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average daily charts. Current performance as of November 30, 2015 on the SPX500 CFD daily is percent profitable: 68% since the year 1970 with a profit factor of 6.4. Current performance as of November 30, 2015 on the DOWI index daily is percent profitable: 51% since the year 1915 with a profit factor of 10.8.
All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Forex Session OverlapApplies gray background coloring for each major active Forex session, the more sessions active the lighter the background. Adjusted coloring for low (Sydney, Tokyo) and high (Frankfurt, London, New York) liquidity. Market opening hours for Sydney, Tokyo, Frankfurt, London and New York have been set to 08:00 - 17:00 local time and are converted to EST while taking daylight saving time into account across regions (REMEMBER: configure manually!). Sessions can be turned on or off separately. By default this indicator hides itself in larger time-frames (>30min by default). Enabling session breaks or daily pivots helps distinguish between sessions.
Artharjan High Volume Zones v2Artharjan High Volume Zones (AHVZ)
The Artharjan High Volume Zones (AHVZ) indicator is designed to identify, highlight, and track price zones formed during exceptionally high-volume bars. These levels often act as critical support and resistance zones, revealing where institutions or large players have shown significant interest.
By combining both short-term (ST) and long-term (LT) high-volume zones, the tool enables traders to align intraday activity with broader market structures.
Core Purpose
Markets often leave behind footprints in the form of high-volume bars. The AHVZ indicator captures these footprints and projects their influence forward, allowing traders to spot zones of liquidity, accumulation, or distribution where future price reactions are likely.
Key Features
🔹 Short-Term High Volume Zones (ST-ZoI)
Identifies the highest-volume bar within a short-term lookback period (default: 22 bars).
Draws and maintains:
Upper & Lower Bounds of the high-volume candle.
Midpoint Line (M-P) as the zone’s equilibrium.
Buffer Zones above and below for intraday flexibility (percentage-based).
Highlights these zones visually for quick intraday decision-making.
🔹 Long-Term High Volume Zones (LT-ZoI)
Scans for the highest-volume bar in a long-term lookback period (default: 252 bars).
Similar plotting structure as ST-ZoI: Upper, Lower, Midpoint, and Buffers.
Useful for identifying institutional footprints and multi-week/month accumulation zones.
🔹 Dynamic Buffering
Daily/Weekly/Monthly charts: Adds a fixed percentage buffer above and below high-volume zones.
Intraday charts: Uses price-range based buffers, scaling zones more adaptively to volatility.
🔹 Visual Customization
Independent color settings for ST and LT zones, mid-range lines, and buffers.
Adjustable plot thickness for clarity across different chart styles.
How It Helps
Intraday Traders
Use ST zones to pinpoint short-term supply/demand clusters.
Trade rejections or breakouts near these high-volume footprints.
Swing/Positional Traders
Align entries with LT zones to stay on the side of institutional flows.
Spot areas where price may stall, reverse, or consolidate.
General Market Structure Analysis
Understand where volume-backed conviction exists in the chart.
Avoid trading into hidden walls of liquidity by recognizing prior high-volume zones.
Closing Note
The Artharjan High Volume Zones indicator acts as a volume map of the market, giving traders a deeper sense of where meaningful battles between buyers and sellers took place. By combining short-term noise filtering with long-term structural awareness, it empowers traders to make more informed, disciplined decisions.
With Thanks,
Rrahul Desai @Artharjan
Martingale Strategy Simulator [BackQuant]Martingale Strategy Simulator
Purpose
This indicator lets you study how a martingale-style position sizing rule interacts with a simple long or short trading signal. It computes an equity curve from bar-to-bar returns, adapts position size after losing streaks, caps exposure at a user limit, and summarizes risk with portfolio metrics. An optional Monte Carlo module projects possible future equity paths from your realized daily returns.
What a martingale is
A martingale sizing rule increases stake after losses and resets after a win. In its classical form from gambling, you double the bet after each loss so that a single win recovers all prior losses plus one unit of profit. In markets there is no fixed “even-money” payout and returns are multiplicative, so an exact recovery guarantee does not exist. The core idea is unchanged:
Lose one leg → increase next position size
Lose again → increase again
Win → reset to the base size
The expectation of your strategy still depends on the signal’s edge. Sizing does not create positive expectancy on its own. A martingale raises variance and tail risk by concentrating more capital as a losing streak develops.
What it plots
Equity – simulated portfolio equity including compounding
Buy & Hold – equity from holding the chart symbol for context
Optional helpers – last trade outcome, current streak length, current allocation fraction
Optional diagnostics – daily portfolio return, rolling drawdown, metrics table
Optional Monte Carlo probability cone – p5, p16, p50, p84, p95 aggregate bands
Model assumptions
Bar-close execution with no slippage or commissions
Shorting allowed and frictionless
No margin interest, borrow fees, or position limits
No intrabar moves or gaps within a bar (returns are close-to-close)
Sizing applies to equity fraction only and is capped by your setting
All results are hypothetical and for education only.
How the simulator applies it
1) Directional signal
You pick a simple directional rule that produces +1 for long or −1 for short each bar. Options include 100 HMA slope, RSI above or below 50, EMA or SMA crosses, CCI and other oscillators, ATR move, BB basis, and more. The stance is evaluated bar by bar. When the stance flips, the current trade ends and the next one starts.
2) Sizing after losses and wins
Position size is a fraction of equity:
Initial allocation – the starting fraction, for example 0.15 means 15 percent of equity
Increase after loss – multiply the next allocation by your factor after a losing leg, for example 2.00 to double
Reset after win – return to the initial allocation
Max allocation cap – hard ceiling to prevent runaway growth
At a high level the size after k consecutive losses is
alloc(k) = min( cap , base × factor^k ) .
In practice the simulator changes size only when a leg ends and its PnL is known.
3) Equity update
Let r_t = close_t / close_{t-1} − 1 be the symbol’s bar return, d_{t−1} ∈ {+1, −1} the prior bar stance, and a_{t−1} the prior bar allocation fraction. The simulator compounds:
eq_t = eq_{t−1} × (1 + a_{t−1} × d_{t−1} × r_t) .
This is bar-based and avoids intrabar lookahead. Costs, slippage, and borrowing costs are not modeled.
Why traders experiment with martingale sizing
Mean-reversion contexts – if the signal often snaps back after a string of losses, adding size near the tail of a move can pull the average entry closer to the turn
Behavioral or microstructure edges – some rules have modest edge but frequent small whipsaws; size escalation may shorten time-to-recovery when the edge manifests
Exploration and stress testing – studying the relationship between streaks, caps, and drawdowns is instructive even if you do not deploy martingale sizing live
Why martingale is dangerous
Martingale concentrates capital when the strategy is performing worst. The main risks are structural, not cosmetic:
Loss streaks are inevitable – even with a 55 percent win rate you should expect multi-loss runs. The probability of at least one k-loss streak in N trades rises quickly with N.
Size explodes geometrically – with factor 2.0 and base 10 percent, the sequence is 10, 20, 40, 80, 100 (capped) after five losses. Without a strict cap, required size becomes infeasible.
No fixed payout – in gambling, one win at even odds resets PnL. In markets, there is no guaranteed bounce nor fixed profit multiple. Trends can extend and gaps can skip levels.
Correlation of losses – losses cluster in trends and in volatility bursts. A martingale tends to be largest just when volatility is highest.
Margin and liquidity constraints – leverage limits, margin calls, position limits, and widening spreads can force liquidation before a mean reversion occurs.
Fat tails and regime shifts – assumptions of independent, Gaussian returns can understate tail risk. Structural breaks can keep the signal wrong for much longer than expected.
The simulator exposes these dynamics in the equity curve, Max Drawdown, VaR and CVaR, and via Monte Carlo sketches of forward uncertainty.
Interpreting losing streaks with numbers
A rough intuition: if your per-trade win probability is p and loss probability is q=1−p , the chance of a specific run of k consecutive losses is q^k . Over many trades, the chance that at least one k-loss run occurs grows with the number of opportunities. As a sanity check:
If p=0.55 , then q=0.45 . A 6-loss run has probability q^6 ≈ 0.008 on any six-trade window. Across hundreds of trades, a 6 to 8-loss run is not rare.
If your size factor is 1.5 and your base is 10 percent, after 8 losses the requested size is 10% × 1.5^8 ≈ 25.6% . With factor 2.0 it would try to be 10% × 2^8 = 256% but your cap will stop it. The equity curve will still wear the compounded drawdown from the sequence that led to the cap.
This is why the cap setting is central. It does not remove tail risk, but it prevents the sizing rule from demanding impossible positions
Note: The p and q math is illustrative. In live data the win rate and distribution can drift over time, so real streaks can be longer or shorter than the simple q^k intuition suggests..
Using the simulator productively
Parameter studies
Start with conservative settings. Increase one element at a time and watch how the equity, Max Drawdown, and CVaR respond.
Initial allocation – lower base reduces volatility and drawdowns across the board
Increase factor – set modestly above 1.0 if you want the effect at all; doubling is aggressive
Max cap – the most important brake; many users keep it between 20 and 50 percent
Signal selection
Keep sizing fixed and rotate signals to see how streak patterns differ. Trend-following signals tend to produce long wrong-way streaks in choppy ranges. Mean-reversion signals do the opposite. Martingale sizing interacts very differently with each.
Diagnostics to watch
Use the built-in metrics to quantify risk:
Max Drawdown – worst peak-to-trough equity loss
Sharpe and Sortino – volatility and downside-adjusted return
VaR 95 percent and CVaR – tail risk measures from the realized distribution
Alpha and Beta – relationship to your chosen benchmark
If you would like to check out the original performance metrics script with multiple assets with a better explanation on all metrics please see
Monte Carlo exploration
When enabled, the forecast draws many synthetic paths from your realized daily returns:
Choose a horizon and a number of runs
Review the bands: p5 to p95 for a wide risk envelope; p16 to p84 for a narrower range; p50 as the median path
Use the table to read the expected return over the horizon and the tail outcomes
Remember it is a sketch based on your recent distribution, not a predictor
Concrete examples
Example A: Modest martingale
Base 10 percent, factor 1.25, cap 40 percent, RSI>50 signal. You will see small escalations on 2 to 4 loss runs and frequent resets. The equity curve usually remains smooth unless the signal enters a prolonged wrong-way regime. Max DD may rise moderately versus fixed sizing.
Example B: Aggressive martingale
Base 15 percent, factor 2.0, cap 60 percent, EMA cross signal. The curve can look stellar during favorable regimes, then a single extended streak pushes allocation to the cap, and a few more losses drive deep drawdown. CVaR and Max DD jump sharply. This is a textbook case of high tail risk.
Strengths
Bar-by-bar, transparent computation of equity from stance and size
Explicit handling of wins, losses, streaks, and caps
Portable signal inputs so you can A–B test ideas quickly
Risk diagnostics and forward uncertainty visualization in one place
Example, Rolling Max Drawdown
Limitations and important notes
Martingale sizing can escalate drawdowns rapidly. The cap limits position size but not the possibility of extended adverse runs.
No commissions, slippage, margin interest, borrow costs, or liquidity limits are modeled.
Signals are evaluated on closes. Real execution and fills will differ.
Monte Carlo assumes independent draws from your recent return distribution. Markets often have serial correlation, fat tails, and regime changes.
All results are hypothetical. Use this as an educational tool, not a production risk engine.
Practical tips
Prefer gentle factors such as 1.1 to 1.3. Doubling is usually excessive outside of toy examples.
Keep a strict cap. Many users cap between 20 and 40 percent of equity per leg.
Stress test with different start dates and subperiods. Long flat or trending regimes are where martingale weaknesses appear.
Compare to an anti-martingale (increase after wins, cut after losses) to understand the other side of the trade-off.
If you deploy sizing live, add external guardrails such as a daily loss cut, volatility filters, and a global max drawdown stop.
Settings recap
Backtest start date and initial capital
Initial allocation, increase-after-loss factor, max allocation cap
Signal source selector
Trading days per year and risk-free rate
Benchmark symbol for Alpha and Beta
UI toggles for equity, buy and hold, labels, metrics, PnL, and drawdown
Monte Carlo controls for enable, runs, horizon, and result table
Final thoughts
A martingale is not a free lunch. It is a way to tilt capital allocation toward losing streaks. If the signal has a real edge and mean reversion is common, careful and capped escalation can reduce time-to-recovery. If the signal lacks edge or regimes shift, the same rule can magnify losses at the worst possible moment. This simulator makes those trade-offs visible so you can calibrate parameters, understand tail risk, and decide whether the approach belongs anywhere in your research workflow.
Ultimate Pattern ScannerSmart Pattern Scanner Pro - Complete Study Guide
The Smart Pattern Scanner Pro is an advanced candlestick pattern recognition indicator that automatically detects over 30 traditional Japanese candlestick patterns across multiple timeframes simultaneously. It combines pattern recognition with volume analysis and trend confirmation to provide traders with comprehensive reversal and continuation signals.
Core Features:
• 30+ Candlestick Patterns: Complete library of traditional patterns
• Multi-Timeframe Scanning: Simultaneous analysis across up to 7 timeframes
• Volume Integration: Buy/sell volume analysis with pattern confirmation
• Trend Filtering: SMA-based trend confirmation for pattern validity
• Real-Time Dashboard: Professional interface with customizable display
• Alert System: Automated notifications when patterns are detected
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Candlestick Pattern Categories
Reversal Patterns (Bullish)
Single Candle Patterns
1. Hammer
o Formation: Small body at top, long lower shadow (2x body size)
o Signal: Bullish reversal after downtrend
o Reliability: High when confirmed with volume
o Entry: Above hammer high with stop below low
2. Inverted Hammer
o Formation: Small body at bottom, long upper shadow
o Signal: Potential bullish reversal (needs confirmation)
o Reliability: Medium (requires next candle confirmation)
o Entry: Confirmed breakout above pattern
3. Dragonfly Doji
o Formation: Open = Close, long lower shadow, no upper shadow
o Signal: Strong bullish reversal signal
o Reliability: High in downtrends
o Entry: Above doji high with tight stop
4. Long Lower Shadow
o Formation: Lower shadow 2x body length
o Signal: Rejection of lower prices, bullish sentiment
o Reliability: Medium to high with volume
o Entry: Above candle high
Multi-Candle Patterns
1. Bullish Engulfing
o Formation: Large white candle completely engulfs previous black candle
o Signal: Strong bullish reversal
o Reliability: Very high with volume confirmation
o Entry: Above engulfing candle high
2. Morning Star
o Formation: 3-candle pattern (down, small, up)
o Signal: Major bullish reversal
o Reliability: Excellent (one of most reliable patterns)
o Entry: Above third candle high
3. Morning Doji Star
o Formation: Like Morning Star but middle candle is doji
o Signal: Strong bullish reversal
o Reliability: Very high
o Entry: Above third candle close
4. Piercing Pattern
o Formation: White candle opens below previous low, closes above midpoint
o Signal: Bullish reversal
o Reliability: High when closing >50% into previous candle
o Entry: Above piercing candle high
5. Bullish Harami
o Formation: Small white candle within previous large black candle
o Signal: Potential bullish reversal
o Reliability: Medium (needs confirmation)
o Entry: Above mother candle high
Reversal Patterns (Bearish)
Single Candle Patterns
1. Shooting Star
o Formation: Small body at bottom, long upper shadow
o Signal: Bearish reversal after uptrend
o Reliability: High with volume confirmation
o Entry: Below shooting star low
2. Hanging Man
o Formation: Like hammer but appears in uptrend
o Signal: Potential bearish reversal
o Reliability: Medium (needs confirmation)
o Entry: Below hanging man low
3. Gravestone Doji
o Formation: Open = Close, long upper shadow, no lower shadow
o Signal: Strong bearish reversal
o Reliability: High in uptrends
o Entry: Below doji low
4. Long Upper Shadow
o Formation: Upper shadow 2x body length
o Signal: Rejection of higher prices
o Reliability: Medium to high
o Entry: Below candle low
Multi-Candle Patterns
1. Bearish Engulfing
o Formation: Large black candle engulfs previous white candle
o Signal: Strong bearish reversal
o Reliability: Very high
o Entry: Below engulfing candle low
2. Evening Star
o Formation: 3-candle pattern (up, small, down)
o Signal: Major bearish reversal
o Reliability: Excellent
o Entry: Below third candle low
3. Dark Cloud Cover
o Formation: Black candle opens above previous high, closes below midpoint
o Signal: Bearish reversal
o Reliability: High when closing <50% into previous candle
o Entry: Below dark cloud low
Continuation Patterns
1. Rising Three Methods
o Formation: White candle, 3 small declining candles, white candle
o Signal: Bullish continuation
o Reliability: High in strong uptrends
2. Falling Three Methods
o Formation: Black candle, 3 small rising candles, black candle
o Signal: Bearish continuation
o Reliability: High in strong downtrends
Indecision Patterns
1. Doji
o Formation: Open = Close (or very close)
o Signal: Market indecision, potential reversal
o Reliability: Context-dependent
2. Spinning Tops
o Formation: Small body with upper and lower shadows
o Signal: Market indecision
o Reliability: Low without confirmation
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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Timeframe Hierarchy Strategy
Primary Analysis Flow:
1. Higher Timeframe (Daily/Weekly): Establish overall trend direction
2. Intermediate Timeframe (4H/1H): Identify key support/resistance levels
3. Lower Timeframe (15M/5M): Precise entry and exit timing
Configuration Guidelines:
• Scalping: 1M, 3M, 5M, 15M, 30M
• Day Trading: 5M, 15M, 30M, 1H, 4H
• Swing Trading: 1H, 4H, 1D, 1W
• Position Trading: 4H, 1D, 1W, 1M
Pattern Confluence Rules:
1. High Probability Setup: Same pattern type appears on 3+ timeframes
2. Trend Alignment: Reversal patterns should align with higher timeframe structure
3. Volume Confirmation: Strong volume on pattern timeframe and higher timeframes
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Volume Analysis Integration
Volume Components:
1. Buy Volume: Volume when close > open (green candles)
2. Sell Volume: Volume when close ≤ open (red candles)
3. Volume Ratio: Current volume / 20-period moving average
4. Progress Indicator: Visual representation of volume strength
Volume Signal Interpretation:
• Ratio >1.5: Strong volume confirmation
• Ratio 1.0-1.5: Moderate volume support
• Ratio <1.0: Weak volume (pattern less reliable)
Volume Analysis Rules:
1. Bullish Patterns: Require strong buy volume for confirmation
2. Bearish Patterns: Require strong sell volume for confirmation
3. Volume Divergence: When pattern and volume disagree, favor volume
4. Volume Spikes: Ratios >2.0 indicate institutional interest
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Live Market Application
Step 1: Dashboard Setup
1. Position Selection: Choose optimal table position for your layout
2. Timeframe Configuration: Set relevant timeframes for your strategy
3. Volume Analysis: Enable for confirmation signals
4. Progress Indicators: Enable for visual signal strength
Step 2: Pattern Identification Process
Real-Time Scanning:
1. Monitor Multiple Timeframes: Check all configured timeframes simultaneously
2. Pattern Priority: Focus on patterns appearing on higher timeframes first
3. Signal Confluence: Look for patterns appearing across multiple timeframes
4. Volume Confirmation: Verify adequate volume support
Pattern Validation:
1. Trend Context: Ensure pattern aligns with overall market structure
2. Support/Resistance: Check if pattern forms at key levels
3. Market Conditions: Consider overall market volatility and sentiment
4. Time of Day: Be aware of session characteristics (open, close, lunch)
Step 3: Entry Decision Matrix
High Probability Entries:
• Pattern on 3+ timeframes
• Strong volume confirmation (ratio >1.5)
• Trend alignment with higher timeframes
• Formation at key support/resistance
Medium Probability Entries:
• Pattern on 2 timeframes
• Moderate volume (ratio 1.0-1.5)
• Partial trend alignment
• Formation in trending market
Low Probability Entries:
• Single timeframe pattern
• Weak volume (ratio <1.0)
• Counter-trend formation
• Choppy/sideways market
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Pattern Reliability Assessment
Tier 1 Patterns (Highest Reliability - 70-80% success rate):
• Morning Star / Evening Star
• Bullish/Bearish Engulfing
• Three White Soldiers / Three Black Crows
• Hammer (in strong downtrend)
• Shooting Star (in strong uptrend)
Tier 2 Patterns (High Reliability - 60-70% success rate):
• Piercing Pattern / Dark Cloud Cover
• Morning/Evening Doji Star
• Harami patterns
• Abandoned Baby
• Kicking patterns
Tier 3 Patterns (Moderate Reliability - 50-60% success rate):
• Doji patterns
• Tweezer Tops/Bottoms
• Window patterns
• Tasuki Gap patterns
• Marubozu patterns
Tier 4 Patterns (Lower Reliability - 40-50% success rate):
• Spinning Tops
• Long shadow patterns (single)
• Neutral doji formations
• Single candle continuation patterns
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Trading Strategies
Strategy 1: Multi-Timeframe Reversal
Objective: Catch major trend reversals using high-reliability patterns
Rules:
1. Wait for Tier 1 patterns on Daily + 4H timeframes
2. Require volume ratio >1.5 on both timeframes
3. Enter on 1H confirmation candle
4. Stop loss below/above pattern extreme
5. Target 2:1 or 3:1 risk-reward ratio
Strategy 2: Intraday Scalping
Objective: Quick profits from short-term pattern formations
Rules:
1. Focus on 5M and 15M timeframes
2. Trade only Tier 1 and Tier 2 patterns
3. Require volume confirmation
4. Quick exits (10-30 pip targets)
5. Tight stops (5-15 pips)
Strategy 3: Swing Trading
Objective: Multi-day position holding based on pattern signals
Rules:
1. Use Daily and Weekly timeframes
2. Focus on major reversal patterns
3. Combine with fundamental analysis
4. Wider stops (2-5% of entry price)
5. Hold for 5-20 trading days
Strategy 4: Trend Continuation
Objective: Enter trending markets using continuation patterns
Rules:
1. Identify strong trends on higher timeframes
2. Wait for continuation patterns on lower timeframes
3. Enter in direction of main trend
4. Trail stops using pattern lows/highs
5. Pyramid positions on additional patterns
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Risk Management
Position Sizing Rules:
1. Tier 1 Patterns: Risk up to 2% of account
2. Tier 2 Patterns: Risk up to 1.5% of account
3. Tier 3 Patterns: Risk up to 1% of account
4. Tier 4 Patterns: Risk up to 0.5% of account
Stop Loss Guidelines:
1. Reversal Patterns: Stop beyond pattern extreme + 1 ATR
2. Continuation Patterns: Stop at pattern invalidation level
3. Doji Patterns: Tight stops due to indecision nature
4. Multi-Candle Patterns: Use pattern range for stop placement
Take Profit Strategies:
1. Conservative: 1:1 risk-reward ratio
2. Moderate: 2:1 risk-reward ratio
3. Aggressive: 3:1 risk-reward ratio
4. Trailing: Move stops to breakeven after 1:1 achieved
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Limitations and Considerations
Technical Limitations:
1. Pattern Subjectivity: Slight variations in pattern interpretation
2. Market Context Dependency: Patterns perform differently in various market conditions
3. False Signals: Not all patterns lead to expected price moves
4. Lagging Nature: Patterns are confirmed after formation is complete
Market Condition Considerations:
1. Trending Markets: Continuation patterns more reliable than reversals
2. Range-Bound Markets: Reversal patterns at extremes more effective
3. High Volatility: Patterns may not develop properly
4. News Events: Fundamental factors can override technical patterns
Optimal Usage Conditions:
1. Liquid Markets: Adequate volume and participation
2. Normal Volatility: Not during extreme market stress
3. Clear Market Structure: Defined support and resistance levels
4. Multiple Timeframe Alignment: Confluence across timeframes
When NOT to Trade Patterns:
1. Major News Releases: Economic announcements can invalidate patterns
2. Market Holidays: Reduced participation affects reliability
3. Extreme Volatility: VIX >30 or similar stress indicators
4. Gap Openings: Large gaps can negate pattern significance
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Risk Disclaimer
CRITICAL WARNING FROM aiTrendview
TRADING FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS
This Smart Pattern Scanner Pro indicator ("the Indicator") is provided for educational and analytical purposes only. By using this indicator, you acknowledge and accept the following terms and conditions:
No Financial Advice
• NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: This indicator does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice
• NO RECOMMENDATIONS: Pattern signals are not recommendations to buy or sell any financial instrument
• EDUCATIONAL TOOL: Designed for learning technical analysis concepts and pattern recognition
• INDEPENDENT RESEARCH REQUIRED: Always conduct your own thorough analysis before making trading decisions
Substantial Trading Risks
• CAPITAL LOSS RISK: You may lose some or all of your trading capital
• LEVERAGE DANGERS: Margin trading can amplify losses beyond your initial investment
• MARKET VOLATILITY: Financial markets are inherently unpredictable and can move against any analysis
• PATTERN FAILURE: Candlestick patterns fail frequently and do not guarantee profitable outcomes
• FALSE SIGNALS: The indicator may generate incorrect or misleading signals
Technical Analysis Limitations
• NOT PREDICTIVE: Candlestick patterns analyze past price action, not future movements
• SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION: Pattern recognition can vary between traders and market conditions
• CONTEXT DEPENDENT: Patterns must be analyzed within broader market context
• NO GUARANTEE: No technical analysis method guarantees trading success
• STATISTICAL PROBABILITY: Even high-reliability patterns fail 20-30% of the time
User Responsibilities
• SOLE RESPONSIBILITY: You are entirely responsible for all trading decisions and outcomes
• RISK MANAGEMENT: Implement appropriate position sizing and stop-loss strategies
• PROFESSIONAL CONSULTATION: Seek advice from qualified financial professionals
• REGULATORY COMPLIANCE: Ensure compliance with local financial regulations
• CONTINUOUS EDUCATION: Maintain ongoing education in market analysis and risk management
Indicator Limitations
• SOFTWARE BUGS: Technical glitches or calculation errors may occur
• DATA DEPENDENCY: Relies on accurate price and volume data feeds
• PLATFORM LIMITATIONS: Subject to TradingView platform capabilities and restrictions
• VERSION UPDATES: Functionality may change with future updates
• COMPATIBILITY: May not work optimally with all chart configurations
Volume Analysis Limitations
• DATA ACCURACY: Volume data may be incomplete or delayed
• MARKET VARIATIONS: Volume patterns differ across markets and instruments
• INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY: Cannot guarantee detection of all institutional trading
• LIQUIDITY FACTORS: Low liquidity markets may produce unreliable volume signals
Multi-Timeframe Considerations
• CONFLICTING SIGNALS: Different timeframes may show contradictory patterns
• TIME SYNCHRONIZATION: Pattern timing may vary across timeframes
• COMPUTATIONAL LOAD: Multiple timeframe analysis may affect performance
• COMPLEXITY RISK: More data does not necessarily mean better decisions
Specific Trading Warnings
Pattern-Specific Risks:
1. Doji Patterns: Indicate indecision, not directional conviction
2. Single Candle Patterns: Generally less reliable than multi-candle formations
3. Continuation Patterns: May signal trend exhaustion rather than continuation
4. Gap Patterns: Subject to overnight and weekend gap risks
Market Condition Risks:
1. News Events: Fundamental factors can invalidate any technical pattern
2. Market Manipulation: Large players can create false pattern signals
3. Algorithmic Trading: High-frequency trading can distort traditional patterns
4. Market Crashes: Extreme events render technical analysis ineffective
Psychological Trading Risks:
1. Overconfidence: Successful patterns may lead to excessive risk-taking
2. Pattern Addiction: Over-reliance on patterns without broader analysis
3. Confirmation Bias: Seeing patterns that don't actually exist
4. Emotional Trading: Fear and greed can override pattern discipline
Legal and Regulatory Disclaimers
Intellectual Property:
• COPYRIGHT PROTECTION: This indicator is protected by copyright law
• AUTHORIZED USE ONLY: Use only as permitted by TradingView terms of service
• NO REDISTRIBUTION: Unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited
• MODIFICATION RESTRICTIONS: Code modifications may void any support or warranties
Regulatory Compliance:
• LOCAL LAWS: Ensure compliance with your jurisdiction's financial regulations
• LICENSING REQUIREMENTS: Some jurisdictions require licenses for trading or advisory activities
• TAX OBLIGATIONS: Trading profits/losses may have tax implications
• REPORTING REQUIREMENTS: Some jurisdictions require reporting of trading activities
Limitation of Liability:
• NO LIABILITY: aiTrendview accepts no liability for any losses, damages, or adverse outcomes
• INDIRECT DAMAGES: Not liable for consequential, incidental, or punitive damages
• MAXIMUM LIABILITY: Limited to amount paid for indicator access (if any)
• FORCE MAJEURE: Not responsible for events beyond reasonable control
Final Warnings and Recommendations
Before Using This Indicator:
1. DEMO TRADING: Practice extensively with paper trading before risking real money
2. EDUCATION: Thoroughly understand candlestick pattern theory and market dynamics
3. RISK ASSESSMENT: Honestly assess your risk tolerance and financial situation
4. PROFESSIONAL ADVICE: Consult with qualified financial advisors
5. START SMALL: Begin with minimal position sizes to test strategies
Red Flags - Do NOT Trade If:
• You cannot afford to lose the money you're risking
• You're experiencing financial stress or pressure
• You're trading emotionally or impulsively
• You don't understand the patterns or market mechanics
• You're using borrowed money or credit to trade
• You're treating trading as gambling rather than calculated risk-taking
Emergency Procedures:
• STOP TRADING immediately if experiencing significant losses
• SEEK HELP if trading is affecting your mental health or relationships
• REVIEW STRATEGY after any series of losses
• TAKE BREAKS from trading to maintain perspective
• PROFESSIONAL HELP: Contact financial counselors if needed
Acknowledgment Required
By using the Smart Pattern Scanner Pro indicator, you explicitly acknowledge that:
1. You have read and understood this entire disclaimer
2. You accept full responsibility for all trading decisions and outcomes
3. You understand the substantial risks involved in financial trading
4. You will not hold aiTrendview liable for any losses or damages
5. You will use this tool only for educational and personal analysis purposes
6. You will comply with all applicable laws and regulations
7. You will implement appropriate risk management practices
8. You understand that past performance does not predict future results
REMEMBER: The most important rule in trading is capital preservation. No pattern, indicator, or strategy is worth risking your financial well-being.
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Disclaimer from aiTrendview.com
The content provided in this blog post is for educational and training purposes only. It is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial, investment, or trading advice. All charting and technical analysis examples are for illustrative purposes. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for every individual. Before making any financial decisions, you should consult with a qualified financial professional to assess your personal financial situation.
Quantum Market Analyzer X7Quantum Market Analyzer X7 - Complete Study Guide
Table of Contents
1. Overview
2. Indicator Components
3. Signal Interpretation
4. Live Market Analysis Guide
5. Best Practices
6. Limitations and Considerations
7. Risk Disclaimer
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Overview
The Quantum Market Analyzer X7 is a comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis indicator that combines traditional and modern analytical methods. It aggregates signals from multiple technical indicators across seven key analysis categories to provide traders with a consolidated view of market sentiment and potential trading opportunities.
Key Features:
• Multi-Indicator Analysis: Combines 20+ technical indicators
• Real-Time Dashboard: Professional interface with customizable display
• Signal Aggregation: Weighted scoring system for overall market sentiment
• Advanced Analytics: Includes Order Block detection, Supertrend, and Volume analysis
• Visual Progress Indicators: Easy-to-read progress bars for signal strength
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Indicator Components
1. Oscillators Section
Purpose: Identifies overbought/oversold conditions and momentum changes
Included Indicators:
• RSI (14): Relative Strength Index - momentum oscillator
• Stochastic (14): Compares closing price to price range
• CCI (20): Commodity Channel Index - cycle identification
• Williams %R (14): Momentum indicator similar to Stochastic
• MACD (12,26,9): Moving Average Convergence Divergence
• Momentum (10): Rate of price change
• ROC (9): Rate of Change
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Volatility-based indicator
Signal Interpretation:
• Strong Buy (6+ points): Multiple oscillators indicate oversold conditions
• Buy (2-5 points): Moderate bullish momentum
• Neutral (-1 to 1 points): Balanced conditions
• Sell (-2 to -5 points): Moderate bearish momentum
• Strong Sell (-6+ points): Multiple oscillators indicate overbought conditions
2. Moving Averages Section
Purpose: Determines trend direction and strength
Included Indicators:
• SMA: 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 periods
• EMA: 10, 20, 50 periods
Signal Logic:
• Price >2% above MA = Strong Buy (+2)
• Price above MA = Buy (+1)
• Price below MA = Sell (-1)
• Price >2% below MA = Strong Sell (-2)
Signal Interpretation:
• Strong Buy (6+ points): Price well above multiple MAs, strong uptrend
• Buy (2-5 points): Price above most MAs, bullish trend
• Neutral (-1 to 1 points): Mixed MA signals, consolidation
• Sell (-2 to -5 points): Price below most MAs, bearish trend
• Strong Sell (-6+ points): Price well below multiple MAs, strong downtrend
3. Order Block Analysis
Purpose: Identifies institutional support/resistance levels and breakouts
How It Works:
• Detects historical levels where large orders were placed
• Monitors price behavior around these levels
• Identifies breakouts from established order blocks
Signal Types:
• BULLISH BRK (+2): Breakout above resistance order block
• BEARISH BRK (-2): Breakdown below support order block
• ABOVE SUP (+1): Price holding above support
• BELOW RES (-1): Price rejected at resistance
• NEUTRAL (0): No significant order block interaction
4. Supertrend Analysis
Purpose: Trend following indicator based on Average True Range
Parameters:
• ATR Period: 10 (default)
• ATR Multiplier: 6.0 (default)
Signal Types:
• BULLISH (+2): Price above Supertrend line
• BEARISH (-2): Price below Supertrend line
• NEUTRAL (0): Transition period
5. Trendline/Channel Analysis
Purpose: Identifies trend channels and breakout patterns
Components:
• Dynamic trendline calculation using pivot points
• Channel width based on historical volatility
• Breakout detection algorithm
Signal Types:
• UPPER BRK (+2): Breakout above upper channel
• LOWER BRK (-2): Breakdown below lower channel
• ABOVE MID (+1): Price above channel midline
• BELOW MID (-1): Price below channel midline
6. Volume Analysis
Purpose: Confirms price movements with volume data
Components:
• Volume spikes detection
• On Balance Volume (OBV)
• Volume Price Trend (VPT)
• Money Flow Index (MFI)
• Accumulation/Distribution Line
Signal Calculation: Multiple volume indicators are combined to determine institutional activity and confirm price movements.
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Signal Interpretation
Overall Summary Signals
The indicator aggregates all component signals into an overall market sentiment:
Signal Score Range Interpretation Action
STRONG BUY 10+ Overwhelming bullish consensus Consider long positions
BUY 4-9 Moderate to strong bullish bias Look for long opportunities
NEUTRAL -3 to 3 Mixed signals, consolidation Wait for clearer direction
SELL -4 to -9 Moderate to strong bearish bias Look for short opportunities
STRONG SELL -10+ Overwhelming bearish consensus Consider short positions
Progress Bar Interpretation
• Filled bars indicate signal strength
• Green bars: Bullish signals
• Red bars: Bearish signals
• More filled bars = stronger conviction
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Live Market Analysis Guide
Step 1: Initial Assessment
1. Check Overall Summary: Start with the main signal
2. Verify with Component Analysis: Ensure signals align
3. Look for Divergences: Identify conflicting signals
Step 2: Timeframe Analysis
1. Set Appropriate Timeframe: Use 1H for intraday, 4H/1D for swing trading
2. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: Check higher timeframes for trend context
3. Entry Timing: Use lower timeframes for precise entry points
Step 3: Signal Confirmation Process
For Buy Signals:
1. Oscillators: Look for oversold conditions (RSI <30, Stoch <20)
2. Moving Averages: Price should be above key MAs
3. Order Blocks: Confirm bounce from support levels
4. Volume: Check for accumulation patterns
5. Supertrend: Ensure bullish trend alignment
For Sell Signals:
1. Oscillators: Look for overbought conditions (RSI >70, Stoch >80)
2. Moving Averages: Price should be below key MAs
3. Order Blocks: Confirm rejection at resistance levels
4. Volume: Check for distribution patterns
5. Supertrend: Ensure bearish trend alignment
Step 4: Risk Management Integration
1. Signal Strength Assessment: Stronger signals = larger position size
2. Stop Loss Placement: Use Order Block levels for stops
3. Take Profit Targets: Based on channel analysis and resistance levels
4. Position Sizing: Adjust based on signal confidence
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Best Practices
Entry Strategies
1. High Conviction Entries: Wait for STRONG BUY/SELL signals
2. Confluence Trading: Look for multiple components aligning
3. Breakout Trading: Use Order Block and Trendline breakouts
4. Trend Following: Align with Supertrend direction
Risk Management
1. Never Risk More Than 2% Per Trade: Regardless of signal strength
2. Use Stop Losses: Place at invalidation levels
3. Scale Positions: Stronger signals warrant larger (but still controlled) positions
4. Diversification: Don't rely solely on one indicator
Market Conditions
1. Trending Markets: Focus on Supertrend and MA signals
2. Range-Bound Markets: Emphasize Oscillator and Order Block signals
3. High Volatility: Reduce position sizes, widen stops
4. Low Volume: Be cautious of breakout signals
Common Mistakes to Avoid
1. Signal Chasing: Don't enter after signals have already moved significantly
2. Ignoring Context: Consider overall market conditions
3. Overtrading: Wait for high-quality setups
4. Poor Risk Management: Always use appropriate position sizing
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Limitations and Considerations
Technical Limitations
1. Lagging Nature: All technical indicators are based on historical data
2. False Signals: No indicator is 100% accurate
3. Market Regime Changes: Indicators may perform differently in various market conditions
4. Whipsaws: Possible in choppy, sideways markets
Optimal Use Cases
1. Trending Markets: Performs best in clear trending environments
2. Medium to High Volatility: Requires sufficient price movement for signals
3. Liquid Markets: Works best with adequate volume and tight spreads
4. Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Most effective when used across different timeframes
When to Use Caution
1. Major News Events: Fundamental analysis may override technical signals
2. Market Opens/Closes: Higher volatility can create false signals
3. Low Volume Periods: Signals may be less reliable
4. Holiday Trading: Reduced participation affects signal quality
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Risk Disclaimer
IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER FROM aiTrendview
WARNING: TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS
This Quantum Market Analyzer X7 indicator ("the Indicator") is provided for educational and informational purposes only. By using this indicator, you acknowledge and agree to the following terms:
No Investment Advice
• The Indicator does NOT constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations
• All signals generated are based on historical price data and mathematical calculations
• Past performance does not guarantee future results
• No representation is made that any account will achieve profits or losses similar to those shown
Risk Acknowledgment
• TRADING CARRIES SUBSTANTIAL RISK: You may lose some or all of your invested capital
• LEVERAGE AMPLIFIES RISK: Margin trading can result in losses exceeding your initial investment
• MARKET VOLATILITY: Financial markets are inherently unpredictable and volatile
• TECHNICAL ANALYSIS LIMITATIONS: No technical indicator is infallible or guarantees profitable trades
User Responsibility
• YOU ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE for all trading decisions and their consequences
• CONDUCT YOUR OWN RESEARCH: Always perform independent analysis before making trading decisions
• CONSULT PROFESSIONALS: Seek advice from qualified financial advisors
• RISK MANAGEMENT: Implement appropriate risk management strategies
No Warranties
• The Indicator is provided "AS IS" without warranties of any kind
• aiTrendview makes no representations about the accuracy, reliability, or suitability of the Indicator
• Technical glitches, data feed issues, or calculation errors may occur
• The Indicator may not work as expected in all market conditions
Limitation of Liability
• aiTrendview SHALL NOT BE LIABLE for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages
• This includes but is not limited to: trading losses, missed opportunities, data inaccuracies, or system failures
• MAXIMUM LIABILITY is limited to the amount paid for the indicator (if any)
Code Usage and Distribution
• This indicator is published on TradingView in accordance with TradingView's house rules
• UNAUTHORIZED MODIFICATION or redistribution of this code is prohibited
• Users may not claim ownership of this intellectual property
• Commercial use requires explicit written permission from aiTrendview
Compliance and Regulations
• VERIFY LOCAL REGULATIONS: Ensure compliance with your jurisdiction's trading laws
• Some trading strategies may not be suitable for all investors
• Tax implications of trading are your responsibility
• Report trading activities as required by law
Specific Risk Factors
1. False Signals: The Indicator may generate incorrect buy/sell signals
2. Market Gaps: Overnight gaps can invalidate technical analysis
3. Fundamental Events: News and economic data can override technical signals
4. Liquidity Risk: Some markets may have insufficient liquidity
5. Technology Risk: Platform failures or connectivity issues may prevent order execution
Professional Trading Warning
• THIS IS NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADING SOFTWARE: Not intended for institutional or professional trading
• NO REGULATORY APPROVAL: This indicator has not been approved by any financial regulatory authority
• EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE: Designed primarily for learning technical analysis concepts
FINAL WARNING
NEVER INVEST MONEY YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE
Trading financial instruments involves significant risk. The majority of retail traders lose money. Before using this indicator in live trading:
1. Practice on paper/demo accounts extensively
2. Start with small position sizes
3. Develop a comprehensive trading plan
4. Implement strict risk management rules
5. Continuously educate yourself about market dynamics
By using the Quantum Market Analyzer X7, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to this disclaimer. You assume full responsibility for all trading decisions and their outcomes.
Contact: For questions about this disclaimer or the indicator, contact aiTrendview through official TradingView channels only.
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This study guide and indicator are published on TradingView in compliance with TradingView's community guidelines and house rules. All users must adhere to TradingView's terms of service when using this indicator.
Document Version: 1.0
Last Updated: September 2025
Publisher: aiTrendview
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Disclaimer from aiTrendview.com
The content provided in this blog post is for educational and training purposes only. It is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial, investment, or trading advice. All charting and technical analysis examples are for illustrative purposes. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for every individual. Before making any financial decisions, you should consult with a qualified financial professional to assess your personal financial situation.
Advanced Range Analyzer ProAdvanced Range Analyzer Pro – Adaptive Range Detection & Breakout Forecasting
Overview
Advanced Range Analyzer Pro is a comprehensive trading tool designed to help traders identify consolidations, evaluate their strength, and forecast potential breakout direction. By combining volatility-adjusted thresholds, volume distribution analysis, and historical breakout behavior, the indicator builds an adaptive framework for navigating sideways price action. Instead of treating ranges as noise, this system transforms them into opportunities for mean reversion or breakout trading.
How It Works
The indicator continuously scans price action to identify active range environments. Ranges are defined by volatility compression, repeated boundary interactions, and clustering of volume near equilibrium. Once detected, the indicator assigns a strength score (0–100), which quantifies how well-defined and compressed the consolidation is.
Breakout probabilities are then calculated by factoring in:
Relative time spent near the upper vs. lower range boundaries
Historical breakout tendencies for similar structures
Volume distribution inside the range
Momentum alignment using auxiliary filters (RSI/MACD)
This creates a live probability forecast that updates as price evolves. The tool also supports range memory, allowing traders to analyze the last completed range after a breakout has occurred. A dynamic strength meter is displayed directly above each consolidation range, providing real-time insight into range compression and breakout potential.
Signals and Breakouts
Advanced Range Analyzer Pro includes a structured set of visual tools to highlight actionable conditions:
Range Zones – Gradient-filled boxes highlight active consolidations.
Strength Meter – A live score displayed in the dashboard quantifies compression.
Breakout Labels – Probability percentages show bias toward bullish or bearish continuation.
Breakout Highlights – When a breakout occurs, the range is marked with directional confirmation.
Dashboard Table – Displays current status, strength, live/last range mode, and probabilities.
These elements update in real time, ensuring that traders always see the current state of consolidation and breakout risk.
Interpretation
Range Strength : High scores (70–100) indicate strong consolidations likely to resolve explosively, while low scores suggest weak or choppy ranges prone to false signals.
Breakout Probability : Directional bias greater than 60% suggests meaningful breakout pressure. Equal probabilities indicate balanced compression, favoring mean-reversion strategies.
Market Context : Ranges aligned with higher timeframe trends often resolve in the dominant direction, while counter-trend ranges may lead to reversals or liquidity sweeps.
Volatility Insight : Tight ranges with low ATR imply imminent expansion; wide ranges signal extended consolidation or distribution phases.
Strategy Integration
Advanced Range Analyzer Pro can be applied across multiple trading styles:
Breakout Trading : Enter on probability shifts above 60% with confirmation of volume or momentum.
Mean Reversion : Trade inside ranges with high strength scores by fading boundaries and targeting equilibrium.
Trend Continuation : Focus on ranges that form mid-trend, anticipating continuation after consolidation.
Liquidity Sweeps : Use failed breakouts at boundaries to capture reversals.
Multi-Timeframe : Apply on higher timeframes to frame market context, then execute on lower timeframes.
Advanced Techniques
Combine with volume profiles to identify areas of institutional positioning within ranges.
Track sequences of strong consolidations for trend development or exhaustion signals.
Use breakout probability shifts in conjunction with order flow or momentum indicators to refine entries.
Monitor expanding/contracting range widths to anticipate volatility cycles.
Custom parameters allow fine-tuning sensitivity for different assets (crypto, forex, equities) and trading styles (scalping, intraday, swing).
Inputs and Customization
Range Detection Sensitivity : Controls how strictly ranges are defined.
Strength Score Settings : Adjust weighting of compression, volume, and breakout memory.
Probability Forecasting : Enable/disable directional bias and thresholds.
Gradient & Fill Options : Customize range visualization colors and opacity.
Dashboard Display : Toggle live vs last range, info table size, and position.
Breakout Highlighting : Choose border/zone emphasis on breakout events.
Why Use Advanced Range Analyzer Pro
This indicator provides a data-driven approach to trading consolidation phases, one of the most common yet underutilized market states. By quantifying range strength, mapping probability forecasts, and visually presenting risk zones, it transforms uncertainty into clarity.
Whether you’re trading breakouts, fading ranges, or mapping higher timeframe context, Advanced Range Analyzer Pro delivers a structured, adaptive framework that integrates seamlessly into multiple strategies.
VWAP Confluência 3x VWAP Confluence 3x — Daily · Weekly · Anchored
Purpose
A pragmatic VWAP suite for execution and risk management. It plots three institutional reference lines: Daily VWAP, Weekly VWAP, and an Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) starting from a user-defined event (news, earnings, session open, swing high/low).
Why it matters
VWAP is the market’s “fair price” weighted by where volume actually traded. Confluence across timeframes and events turns noisy charts into actionable bias and clean levels.
What it does
Daily VWAP — resets each trading day; intraday “fair value.”
Weekly VWAP — resets each week; swing context and larger player defense.
Anchored VWAP — starts at a precise timestamp you set (e.g., news release).
Price source toggle — Typical Price
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/
3
(H+L+C)/3 or Close.
Visibility switches — enable/disable each line independently.
Anchor marker — labels the first bar of the AVWAP.
Inputs
Show Daily VWAP (on/off)
Show Weekly VWAP (on/off)
Show Anchored VWAP (on/off)
Price Source: Typical (H+L+C)/3 or Close
Anchor Time: timestamp of your event (uses the chart/exchange timezone)
How to anchor to a news event
Find the exact release time as shown in your chart’s timezone.
Open the indicator settings → set Anchor Time to that minute.
The AVWAP begins at that bar and accumulates forward.
Playbook (examples, not signals)
Strong long bias: price above Daily and Weekly VWAP; AVWAP reclaimed after news.
Strong short bias: price below Daily and Weekly; AVWAP reject after news.
Mean-revert zones: price stretches far from the active VWAPs and snaps back; size around VWAP with tight risk.
Targets: opposite VWAP, prior day/week highs/lows, or liquidity pools near AVWAP.
Best used with
Session highs/lows, liquidity sweeps, volume profile, and time-of-day filters.
Notes & limitations
Works best on markets with reliable volume (equities, futures, liquid crypto). FX spot uses synthetic volume—interpret accordingly.
Anchor Time respects the chart’s timezone. Convert news times before setting.
This is an indicator, not a backtestable strategy. No trade advice.
Disclaimer
For educational purposes only. Trading involves risk. Do your own research and manage risk responsibly.
LogPressure Envelope [BOSWaves]LogPressure Envelope – Adaptive Volatility & Trend Visualizer
Overview
LogPressure Envelope is a specialized trading tool designed to normalize market behavior using logarithmic price scaling while providing an adaptive framework for volatility and trend detection. The indicator calculates a log-based moving average midline, surrounds it with asymmetric volatility envelopes, and replaces the conventional cloud with progressive fan lines to present price action in a more interpretable form.
By integrating rate-of-change midline coloring, fading trend strength, and structured buy/sell markers, LogPressure Envelope simplifies the reading of complex market dynamics. Its design makes it suitable for multiple trading approaches, including scalping, intraday, and swing trading, where volatility behavior and trend shifts must be understood quickly and objectively.
Unlike static envelope indicators, LogPressure Envelope adapts continuously to price scale and volatility conditions. It evaluates log-transformed prices, applies configurable moving average methods (EMA, SMA, WMA), and derives asymmetric standard-deviation bands for both upside and downside moves. These envelopes are projected as fan lines with adjustable opacity, producing a layered volatility map that evolves with the market.
This system ensures each visual element—midline shading, candle coloring, fan structure, and signal markers—reflects real-time market conditions, allowing traders to interpret volatility expansion, contraction, and directional bias with clarity.
How It Works
The foundation of LogPressure Envelope is the logarithmic transformation of price. By operating in log space, the indicator removes distortions caused by large nominal price differences across assets, enabling consistent analysis of both low-priced and high-priced instruments.
A moving average of log prices is calculated (EMA, SMA, or WMA depending on user input) and then re-converted to normal price scale, forming the log midline. Standard deviation of log prices is then measured over a separate period, with independent multipliers for upside and downside deviations. This asymmetry captures the fact that markets often expand differently in bullish versus bearish phases.
Instead of plotting a filled cloud, the envelope is expressed as ten equidistant fan lines stretching from the lower to upper boundary. Each line is shaded progressively to visualize volatility clustering and directional strength without overloading the chart.
Trend determination is smoothed using a fade mechanism: shifts in bias do not flip instantly but gradually move toward the new state, producing fewer false transitions. Buy and sell markers are generated when trend strength crosses confirmation thresholds, ensuring signals are event-driven and contextually meaningful.
Signals and Visuals
LogPressure Envelope provides multiple layers of structured signals:
Midline Bias – Central moving average colored by rate-of-change, reflecting directional acceleration or deceleration.
Volatility Fan – Ten progressive lines forming a gradient between lower and upper bands, visually encoding volatility spread.
Buy Signals – Labels below bars when upward trend strength is confirmed.
Sell Signals – Labels above bars when downward trend strength is confirmed.
Candle Coloring – Optional shading of candles based on trend alignment with the log midline, highlighting bullish, bearish, or neutral conditions.
These signals remain clear even during high-volatility phases, with visual hierarchy maintained through progressive opacity control.
Interpretation
Trend Analysis : Midline direction and candle coloring provide continuous feedback on prevailing bias. Upward-sloping midlines with blue shading indicate bullish phases, while downward slopes with orange shading confirm bearish conditions.
Volatility and Risk Assessment : Expansion of fan lines indicates rising volatility and potential breakout conditions; contraction indicates consolidation and possible mean reversion.
Signal Confirmation : Buy and sell markers validate transitions when trend strength thresholds are crossed, aligning with volatility envelope dynamics.
Market Context : Asymmetric envelopes allow traders to see where bearish acceleration differs from bullish expansion, improving interpretation of liquidity conditions and institutional pressure.
Strategy Integration
LogPressure Envelope can be applied across trading styles:
Trend Following : Enter trades in the direction of midline bias, confirmed by buy or sell markers.
Pullback Entries : Use midline retests during trending conditions as lower-risk continuation points.
Volatility Breakouts : Identify sharp expansions in fan line spacing as early signals of directional moves.
Reversal Strategies : Fade extreme envelope touches when momentum shows exhaustion and fan contraction begins.
Multi-Timeframe Confirmation : Align signals from higher and lower timeframes to reduce noise and validate trade setups.
Stop-loss levels can be set near the opposite envelope boundary, while targets may be managed through progressive volatility zones or midline convergence.
Advanced Techniques
For greater precision, LogPressure Envelope can be combined with other analytical tools:
Pair with volume or liquidity measures to validate breakout or reversal conditions.
Use momentum indicators to confirm ROC-based midline bias.
Track sequences of fan line expansions and contractions to anticipate regime shifts in volatility.
Apply across multiple timeframes to monitor how volatility clusters align at different market scales.
Adjusting parameters such as envelope multipliers, moving average type, and fade bars allows the indicator to adapt to diverse asset classes and volatility environments.
Inputs and Customization
Midline Type : Select EMA, SMA, or WMA.
Line Opacity : Control visibility of fan lines.
Enable Candle Coloring : Toggle trend-based bar shading.
MA Length / StdDev Length : Define periods for midline and volatility calculation.
Multipliers : Set asymmetric scaling for upside and downside envelopes.
Fade Bars : Control smoothness of trend strength transitions.
Fan Lines : Adjust number of envelope subdivisions for visualization granularity.
Why Use LogPressure Envelope
LogPressure Envelope translates complex volatility and trend interactions into a structured and adaptive framework. By combining logarithmic normalization, asymmetric standard deviation envelopes, and smoothed trend confirmation, it allows traders to:
Normalize price analysis across assets of different scales.
Visualize volatility expansion and contraction in real time.
Identify and confirm directional shifts with objective signal markers.
Apply a disciplined system for trend, breakout, and reversal strategies.
This indicator is designed for traders who want a systematic, visually clear approach to volatility-based market analysis without relying on static bands or arbitrary scaling.
HorizonSigma Pro [CHE]HorizonSigma Pro
Disclaimer
Not every timeframe will yield good results . Very short charts are dominated by microstructure noise, spreads, and slippage; signals can flip and the tradable edge shrinks after costs. Very high timeframes adapt more slowly, provide fewer samples, and can lag regime shifts. When you change timeframe, you also change the ratios between horizon, lookbacks, and correlation windows—what works on M5 won’t automatically hold on H1 or D1. Liquidity, session effects (overnight gaps, news bursts), and volatility do not scale linearly with time. Always validate per symbol and timeframe, then retune horizon, z-length, correlation window, and either the neutral band or the z-threshold. On fast charts, “components” mode adapts quicker; on slower charts, “super” reduces noise. Keep prior-shift and calibration enabled, monitor Hit Rate with its confidence interval and the Brier score, and execute only on confirmed (closed-bar) values.
For example, what do “UP 61%” and “DOWN 21%” mean?
“UP 61%” is the model’s estimated probability that the close will be higher after your selected horizon—directional probability, not a price target or profit guarantee. “DOWN 21%” still reports the probability of up; here it’s 21%, which implies 79% for down (a short bias). The label switches to “DOWN” because the probability falls below your short threshold. With a neutral-band policy, for example ±7%, signals are: Long above 57%, Short below 43%, Neutral in between. In z-score mode, fixed z-cutoffs drive the call instead of percentages. The arrow length on the chart is an ATR-scaled projection to visualize reach; treat it as guidance, not a promise.
Part 1 — Scientific description
Objective.
The indicator estimates the probability that price will be higher after a user-defined horizon (a chosen number of bars) and emits long, short, or neutral decisions under explicit thresholds. It combines multi‑feature, z‑normalized inputs, adaptive correlation‑based weighting, a prior‑shifted sigmoid mapping, optional rolling probability calibration, and repaint‑safe confirmation. It also visualizes an ATR‑scaled forward projection and prints a compact statistics panel.
Data and labeling.
For each bar, the target label is whether price increased over the past chosen horizon. Learning is deliberately backward‑looking to avoid look‑ahead: features are associated with outcomes that are only known after that horizon has elapsed.
Feature engineering.
The feature set includes momentum, RSI, stochastic %K, MACD histogram slope, a normalized EMA(20/50) trend spread, ATR as a share of price, Bollinger Band width, and volume normalized by its moving average. All features are standardized over rolling windows. A compressed “super‑feature” is available that aggregates core trend and momentum components while penalizing excessive width (volatility). Users can switch between a “components” mode (weighted sum of individual features) and a “super” mode (single compressed driver).
Weighting and learning.
Weights are the rolling correlations between features (evaluated one horizon ago) and realized directional outcomes, smoothed by an EMA and optionally clamped to a bounded range to stabilize outliers. This produces an adaptive, regime‑aware weighting without explicit machine‑learning libraries.
Scoring and probability mapping.
The raw score is either the weighted component sum or the weighted super‑feature. The score is standardized again and passed through a sigmoid whose steepness is user‑controlled. A “prior shift” moves the sigmoid’s midpoint to the current base rate of up moves, estimated over the evaluation window, so that probabilities remain well‑calibrated when markets drift bullish or bearish. Probabilities and standardized scores are EMA‑smoothed for stability.
Decision policy.
Two modes are supported:
- Neutral band: go long if the probability is above one half plus a user‑set band; go short if it is below one half minus that band; otherwise stay neutral.
- Z‑score thresholds: use symmetric positive/negative cutoffs on the standardized score to trigger long/short.
Repaint protection.
All values used for decisions can be locked to confirmed (closed) bars. Intrabar updates are available as a preview, but confirmed values drive evaluation and stats.
Calibration.
An optional rolling linear calibration maps past confirmed probabilities to realized outcomes over the evaluation window. The mapping is clipped to the unit interval and can be injected back into the decision logic if desired. This improves reliability (probabilities that “mean what they say”) without necessarily improving raw separability.
Evaluation metrics.
The table reports: hit rate on signaled bars; a Wilson confidence interval for that hit rate at a chosen confidence level; Brier score as a measure of probability accuracy; counts of long/short trades; average realized return by side; profit factor; net return; and exposure (signal density). All are computed on rolling windows consistent with the learning scheme.
Visualization.
On the chart, an arrowed projection shows the predicted direction from the current bar to the chosen horizon, with magnitude scaled by ATR (optionally scaled by the square‑root of the horizon). Labels display either the decision probability or the standardized score. Neutral states can display a configurable icon for immediate recognition.
Computational properties.
The design relies on rolling means, standard deviations, correlations, and EMAs. Per‑bar cost is constant with respect to history length, and memory is constant per tracked series. Graphical objects are updated in place to obey platform limits.
Assumptions and limitations.
The method is correlation‑based and will adapt after regime changes, not before them. Calibration improves probability reliability but not necessarily ranking power. Intrabar previews are non‑binding and should not be evaluated as historical performance.
Part 2 — Trader‑facing description
What it does.
This tool tells you how likely price is to be higher after your chosen number of bars and converts that into Long / Short / Neutral calls. It learns, in real time, which components—momentum, trend, volatility, breadth, and volume—matter now, adjusts their weights, and shows you a probability line plus a forward arrow scaled by volatility.
How to set it up.
1) Choose your horizon. Intraday scalps: 5–10 bars. Swings: 10–30 bars. The default of 14 bars is a balanced starting point.
2) Pick a feature mode.
- components: granular and fast to adapt when leadership rotates between signals.
- super: cleaner single driver; less noise, slightly slower to react.
3) Decide how signals are triggered.
- Neutral band (probability based): intuitive and easy to tune. Widen the band for fewer, higher‑quality trades; tighten to catch more moves.
- Z‑score thresholds: consistent numeric cutoffs that ignore base‑rate drift.
4) Keep reliability helpers on. Leave prior shift and calibration enabled to stabilize probabilities across bullish/bearish regimes.
5) Smoothing. A short EMA on the probability or score reduces whipsaws while preserving turns.
6) Overlay. The arrow shows the call and a volatility‑scaled reach for the next horizon. Treat it as guidance, not a promise.
Reading the stats table.
- Hit Rate with a confidence interval: your recent accuracy with an uncertainty range; trust the range, not only the point.
- Brier Score: lower is better; it checks whether a stated “70%” really behaves like 70% over time.
- Profit Factor, Net Return, Exposure: quick triage of tradability and signal density.
- Average Return by Side: sanity‑check that the long and short calls each pull their weight.
Typical adjustments.
- Too many trades? Increase the neutral band or raise the z‑threshold.
- Missing the move? Tighten the band, or switch to components mode to react faster.
- Choppy timeframe? Lengthen the z‑score and correlation windows; keep calibration on.
- Volatility regime change? Revisit the ATR multiplier and enable square‑root scaling of horizon.
Execution and risk.
- Size positions by volatility (ATR‑based sizing works well).
- Enter on confirmed values; use intrabar previews only as early signals.
- Combine with your market structure (levels, liquidity zones). This model is statistical, not clairvoyant.
What it is not.
Not a black‑box machine‑learning model. It is transparent, correlation‑weighted technical analysis with strong attention to probability reliability and repaint safety.
Suggested defaults (robust starting point).
- Horizon 14; components mode; weight EMA 10; correlation window 500; z‑length 200.
- Neutral band around seven percentage points, or z‑threshold around one‑third of a standard deviation.
- Prior shift ON, Calibration ON, Use calibrated for decisions OFF to start.
- ATR multiplier 1.0; square‑root horizon scaling ON; EMA smoothing 3.
- Confidence setting equivalent to about 95%.
Disclaimer
No indicator guarantees profits. HorizonSigma Pro is a decision aid; always combine with solid risk management and your own judgment. Backtest, forward test, and size responsibly.
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Enhance your trading precision and confidence 🚀
Best regards
Chervolino
