Statistical ArbitrageThe Statistical Arbitrage Strategy, also known as pairs trading, is a quantitative trading method that capitalizes on price discrepancies between two correlated assets. The strategy assumes that over time, the prices of these two assets will revert to their historical relationship. The core idea is to take advantage of mean reversion, a principle suggesting that asset prices will revert to their long-term average after deviating significantly.
Strategy Mechanics:
1. Selection of Correlated Assets:
• The strategy focuses on two historically correlated assets (e.g., equity index futures like Dow Jones Mini and S&P 500 Mini). These assets tend to move in the same direction due to similar underlying fundamentals, such as overall market conditions. By tracking their relative prices, the strategy seeks to exploit temporary mispricings.
2. Spread Calculation:
• The spread is the difference between the prices of the two assets. This spread represents the relationship between the assets and serves as the basis for determining when to enter or exit trades.
3. Mean and Standard Deviation:
• The historical average (mean) of the spread is calculated using a Simple Moving Average (SMA) over a chosen period. The strategy also computes the standard deviation (volatility) of the spread, which measures how far the spread has deviated from the mean over time. This allows the strategy to define statistically significant price deviations.
4. Entry Signal (Mean Reversion):
• A buy signal is triggered when the spread falls below the mean by a multiple (e.g., two) of the standard deviation. This indicates that one asset is temporarily undervalued relative to the other, and the strategy expects the spread to revert to its mean, generating profits as the prices converge.
5. Exit Signal:
• The strategy exits the trade when the spread reverts to the mean. At this point, the mispricing has been corrected, and the profit from the mean reversion is realized.
Academic Support:
Statistical arbitrage has been widely studied in finance and economics. Gatev, Goetzmann, and Rouwenhorst’s (2006) landmark study on pairs trading demonstrated that this strategy could generate excess returns in equity markets. Their research found that by focusing on historically correlated stocks, traders could identify pricing anomalies and profit from their eventual correction.
Additionally, Avellaneda and Lee (2010) explored statistical arbitrage in different asset classes and found that exploiting deviations in price relationships can offer a robust, market-neutral trading strategy. In these studies, the strategy’s success hinges on the stability of the relationship between the assets and the timely execution of trades when deviations occur.
Risks of Statistical Arbitrage:
1. Correlation Breakdown:
• One of the primary risks is the breakdown of correlation between the two assets. Statistical arbitrage assumes that the historical relationship between the assets will hold in the future. However, market conditions, company fundamentals, or external shocks (e.g., macroeconomic changes) can cause these assets to deviate permanently, leading to potential losses.
• For instance, if two equity indices historically move together but experience divergent economic conditions or policy changes, their prices may no longer revert to the expected mean.
2. Execution Risk:
• This strategy relies on efficient execution and tight spreads. In volatile or illiquid markets, the actual price at which trades are executed may differ significantly from expected prices, leading to slippage and reduced profits.
3. Market Risk:
• Although statistical arbitrage is designed to be market-neutral (i.e., not dependent on the overall market direction), it is not entirely risk-free. Systematic market shocks, such as financial crises or sudden shifts in market sentiment, can affect both assets simultaneously, causing the spread to widen rather than revert to the mean.
4. Model Risk:
• The assumptions underlying the strategy, particularly regarding mean reversion, may not always hold true. The model assumes that asset prices will return to their historical averages within a certain timeframe, but the timing and magnitude of mean reversion can be uncertain. Misestimating this timeframe can lead to extended drawdowns or unrealized losses.
5. Overfitting:
• Over-reliance on historical data to fine-tune the strategy parameters (e.g., the lookback period or standard deviation thresholds) may result in overfitting. This means that the strategy works well on past data but fails to perform in live markets due to changing conditions.
Conclusion:
The Statistical Arbitrage Strategy offers a systematic and quantitative approach to trading that capitalizes on temporary price inefficiencies between correlated assets. It has been proven to generate returns in academic studies and is widely used by hedge funds and institutional traders for its market-neutral characteristics. However, traders must be aware of the inherent risks, including correlation breakdown, execution risks, and the potential for prolonged deviations from the mean. Effective risk management, diversification, and constant monitoring are essential for successfully implementing this strategy in live markets.
"ha溢价率" için komut dosyalarını ara
Value at Risk [OmegaTools]The "Value at Risk" (VaR) indicator is a powerful financial risk management tool that helps traders estimate the potential losses in a portfolio over a specified period of time, given a certain level of confidence. VaR is widely used by financial institutions, traders, and risk managers to assess the probability of portfolio losses in both normal and volatile market conditions. This TradingView script implements a comprehensive VaR calculation using several models, allowing users to visualize different risk scenarios and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
Concept of Value at Risk
Value at Risk (VaR) is a statistical technique used to measure the likelihood of losses in a portfolio or financial asset due to market risks. In essence, it answers the question: "What is the maximum potential loss that could occur in a given portfolio over a specific time horizon, with a certain confidence level?" For instance, if a portfolio has a one-day 95% VaR of $10,000, it means that there is a 95% chance the portfolio will not lose more than $10,000 in a single day. Conversely, there is a 5% chance of losing more than $10,000. VaR is a key risk management tool for portfolio managers and traders because it quantifies potential losses in monetary terms, allowing for better-informed decision-making.
There are several ways to calculate VaR, and this indicator script incorporates three of the most commonly used models:
Historical VaR: This approach uses historical returns to estimate potential losses. It is based purely on past price data, assuming that the past distribution of returns is indicative of future risks.
Variance-Covariance VaR: This model assumes that asset returns follow a normal distribution and that the risk can be summarized using the mean and standard deviation of past returns. It is a parametric method that is widely used in financial risk management.
Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) VaR: In this model, recent data points are given more weight than older data. This dynamic approach allows the VaR estimation to react more quickly to changes in market volatility, which is particularly useful during periods of market stress. This model uses the Exponential Weighted Moving Average Volatility Model.
How the Script Works
The script starts by offering users a set of customizable input settings. The first input allows the user to choose between two main calculation modes: "All" or "OCT" (Only Current Timeframe). In the "All" mode, the script calculates VaR using all available methodologies—Historical, Variance-Covariance, and EWMA—providing a comprehensive risk overview. The "OCT" mode narrows the calculation to the current timeframe, which can be particularly useful for intraday traders who need a more focused view of risk.
The next input is the lookback window, which defines the number of historical periods used to calculate VaR. Commonly used lookback periods include 21 days (approximately one month), 63 days (about three months), and 252 days (roughly one year), with the script supporting up to 504 days for more extended historical analysis. A longer lookback period provides a more comprehensive picture of risk but may be less responsive to recent market conditions.
The confidence level is another important setting in the script. This represents the probability that the loss will not exceed the VaR estimate. Standard confidence levels are 90%, 95%, and 99%. A higher confidence level results in a more conservative risk estimate, meaning that the calculated VaR will reflect a more extreme loss scenario.
In addition to these core settings, the script allows users to customize the visual appearance of the indicator. For example, traders can choose different colors for "Bullish" (Risk On), "Bearish" (Risk Off), and "Neutral" phases, as well as colors for highlighting "Breaks" in the data, where returns exceed the calculated VaR. These visual cues make it easy to identify periods of heightened risk at a glance.
The actual VaR calculation is broken down into several models, starting with the Historical VaR calculation. This is done by computing the logarithmic returns of the asset's closing prices and then using linear interpolation to determine the percentile corresponding to the desired confidence level. This percentile represents the potential loss in the asset over the lookback period.
Next, the script calculates Variance-Covariance VaR using the mean and standard deviation of the historical returns. The standard deviation is multiplied by a z-score corresponding to the chosen confidence level (e.g., 1.645 for 95% confidence), and the resulting value is subtracted from the mean return to arrive at the VaR estimate.
The EWMA VaR model uses the EWMA for the sigma parameter, the standard deviation, obtaining a specific dynamic in the volatility. It is particularly useful in volatile markets where recent price behavior is more indicative of future risk than older data.
For traders interested in intraday risk management, the script provides several methods to adjust VaR calculations for lower timeframes. By using intraday returns and scaling them according to the chosen timeframe, the script provides a dynamic view of risk throughout the trading day. This is especially important for short-term traders who need to manage their exposure during high-volatility periods within the same day. The script also incorporates an EWMA model for intraday data, which gives greater weight to the most recent intraday price movements.
In addition to calculating VaR, the script also attempts to detect periods where the asset's returns exceed the estimated VaR threshold, referred to as "Breaks." When the returns breach the VaR limit, the script highlights these instances on the chart, allowing traders to quickly identify periods of extreme risk. The script also calculates the average of these breaks and displays it for comparison, helping traders understand how frequently these high-risk periods occur.
The script further visualizes the risk scenario using a risk phase classification system. Depending on the level of risk, the script categorizes the market as either "Risk On," "Risk Off," or "Risk Neutral." In "Risk On" mode, the market is considered bullish, and the indicator displays a green background. In "Risk Off" mode, the market is bearish, and the background turns red. If the market is neither strongly bullish nor bearish, the background turns neutral, signaling a balanced risk environment.
Traders can customize whether they want to see this risk phase background, along with toggling the display of the various VaR models, the intraday methods, and the break signals. This flexibility allows traders to tailor the indicator to their specific needs, whether they are day traders looking for quick intraday insights or longer-term investors focused on historical risk analysis.
The "Risk On" and "Risk Off" phases calculated by this Value at Risk (VaR) script introduce a novel approach to market risk assessment, offering traders an advanced toolset to gauge market sentiment and potential risk levels dynamically. These risk phases are built on a combination of traditional VaR methodologies and proprietary logic to create a more responsive and intuitive way to manage exposure in both normal and volatile market conditions. This method of classifying market conditions into "Risk On," "Risk Off," or "Risk Neutral" is not something that has been traditionally associated with VaR, making it a groundbreaking addition to this indicator.
How the "Risk On" and "Risk Off" Phases Are Calculated
In typical VaR implementations, the focus is on calculating the potential losses at a given confidence level without providing an overall market outlook. This script, however, introduces a unique risk classification system that takes the output of various VaR models and translates it into actionable signals for traders, marking whether the market is in a Risk On, Risk Off, or Risk Neutral phase.
The Risk On and Risk Off phases are primarily determined by comparing the current returns of the asset to the average VaR calculated across several different methods, including Historical VaR, Variance-Covariance VaR, and EWMA VaR. Here's how the process works:
1. Threshold Setting and Effect Calculation: The script first computes the average VaR using the selected models. It then checks whether the current returns (expressed as a negative value to signify loss) exceed the average VaR value. If the current returns surpass the calculated VaR threshold, this indicates that the actual market risk is higher than expected, signaling a potential shift in market conditions.
2. Break Analysis: In addition to monitoring whether returns exceed the average VaR, the script counts the number of instances within the lookback period where this breach occurs. This is referred to as the "break effect." For each period in the lookback window, the script checks whether the returns surpass the calculated VaR threshold and increments a counter. The percentage of periods where this breach occurs is then calculated as the "effect" or break percentage.
3. Dual Effect Check (if "Double" Risk Scenario is selected): When the user chooses the "Double" risk scenario mode, the script performs two layers of analysis. First, it calculates the effect of returns exceeding the VaR threshold for the current timeframe. Then, it calculates the effect for the lower intraday timeframe as well. Both effects are compared to the user-defined confidence level (e.g., 95%). If both effects exceed the confidence level, the market is deemed to be in a high-risk situation, thus triggering a Risk Off phase. If both effects fall below the confidence level, the market is classified as Risk On.
4. Risk Phases Determination: The final risk phase is determined by analyzing these effects in relation to the confidence level:
- Risk On: If the calculated effect of breaks is lower than the confidence level (e.g., fewer than 5% of periods show returns exceeding the VaR threshold for a 95% confidence level), the market is considered to be in a relatively safe state, and the script signals a "Risk On" phase. This is indicative of bullish conditions where the potential for extreme loss is minimal.
- Risk Off: If the break effect exceeds the confidence level (e.g., more than 5% of periods show returns breaching the VaR threshold), the market is deemed to be in a high-risk state, and the script signals a "Risk Off" phase. This indicates bearish market conditions where the likelihood of significant losses is higher.
- Risk Neutral: If the break effect hovers near the confidence level or if there is no clear trend indicating a shift toward either extreme, the market is classified as "Risk Neutral." In this phase, neither bulls nor bears are dominant, and traders should remain cautious.
The phase color that the script uses helps visualize these risk phases. The background will turn green in Risk On conditions, red in Risk Off conditions, and gray in Risk Neutral phases, providing immediate visual feedback on market risk. In addition to this, when the "Double" risk scenario is selected, the background will only turn green or red if both the current and intraday timeframes confirm the respective risk phase. This double-checking process ensures that traders are only given a strong signal when both longer-term and short-term risks align, reducing the likelihood of false signals.
A New Way of Using Value at Risk
This innovative Risk On/Risk Off classification, based on the interaction between VaR thresholds and market returns, represents a significant departure from the traditional use of Value at Risk as a pure risk measurement tool. Typically, VaR is employed as a backward-looking measure of risk, providing a static estimate of potential losses over a given timeframe with no immediate actionable feedback on current market conditions. This script, however, dynamically interprets VaR results to create a forward-looking, real-time signal that informs traders whether they are operating in a favorable (Risk On) or unfavorable (Risk Off) environment.
By incorporating the "break effect" analysis and allowing users to view the VaR breaches as a percentage of past occurrences, the script adds a predictive element that can be used to time market entries and exits more effectively. This **dual-layer risk analysis**, particularly when using the "Double" scenario mode, adds further granularity by considering both current timeframe and intraday risks. Traders can therefore make more informed decisions not just based on historical risk data, but on how the market is behaving in real-time relative to those risk benchmarks.
This approach transforms the VaR indicator from a risk monitoring tool into a decision-making system that helps identify favorable trading opportunities while alerting users to potential market downturns. It provides a more holistic view of market conditions by combining both statistical risk measurement and intuitive phase-based market analysis. This level of integration between VaR methodologies and real-time signal generation has not been widely seen in the world of trading indicators, marking this script as a cutting-edge tool for risk management and market sentiment analysis.
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to @skewedzeta for his invaluable contribution to the final script. From generating fresh ideas to applying his expertise in reviewing the formula, his support has been instrumental in refining the outcome.
Signals Pro [traderslog]The "Signals Pro" indicator is an advanced and versatile trading tool designed to help traders accurately identify key buy and sell signals using a combination of technical analysis factors such as candle patterns , RSI (Relative Strength Index) , and candle stability . It is highly customizable and offers a range of options that make it suitable for both short-term and long-term traders. By filtering market noise and providing actionable insights, this indicator enhances decision-making and helps traders capitalize on market movements.
At the core of the "Signals Pro" indicator is the concept of Candle Stability . The Candle Stability Index measures the ratio between a candle's body and its wicks, providing insight into the strength of the price movement during that period. A higher value indicates that the candle is more stable, meaning that the price has moved significantly without much retracement. This stability filter is crucial because it prevents the generation of signals during volatile or choppy market conditions where price direction is uncertain. Traders can adjust the Candle Stability Index from 0 to 1, allowing for precise control over how stable a candle must be for the indicator to generate a signal.
Another key feature is the use of RSI (Relative Strength Index) , a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI index parameter in the indicator can be customized to detect overbought or oversold conditions. When the RSI falls below the defined threshold, it signals that the market may be oversold , which can indicate a potential buying opportunity . Conversely, when the RSI exceeds a certain value, it suggests that the market is overbought , signaling a potential selling opportunity . This allows traders to time their trades more effectively by entering when market conditions are favorable and exiting before a potential reversal occurs.
The Candle Delta Length is another critical element of the "Signals Pro" indicator. This parameter measures how much the price has increased or decreased over a specific number of candles. By adjusting the Candle Delta Length , traders can define how many periods the indicator should analyze before generating a signal. A longer Candle Delta Length means the price has been trending in one direction for a longer period, providing more reliable signals. For instance, if the price has been steadily decreasing for five candles, this could signal a bullish reversal , triggering a buy signal .
To further enhance its accuracy, the "Signals Pro" indicator includes a unique feature that allows traders to disable repeating signals . This is particularly useful in situations where the market is moving sideways or during low volatility periods, where multiple signals may cluster close together, creating confusion. By enabling the disable repeating signals option, traders can prevent these repeated signals and focus on the most important and confirmed signals, ensuring cleaner charts and reducing the risk of overtrading.
A key technical aspect of the indicator is its ability to detect bullish and bearish engulfing patterns . The indicator looks for bullish engulfing patterns, which occur when a bullish candle fully engulfs the body of the previous bearish candle, signaling a potential bullish reversal . Conversely, bearish engulfing patterns occur when a bearish candle fully engulfs the previous bullish candle, indicating a bearish reversal . By incorporating these candle patterns with the Candle Stability Index and RSI levels , the indicator provides highly reliable signals based on price action and market sentiment.
Visual customization is another major advantage of the "Signals Pro" indicator. Traders can choose from several different label styles , such as text bubbles , triangles , or arrows to mark the buy and sell signals on the chart. This makes the signals stand out and easy to interpret at a glance. Furthermore, the color of these signals can be customized: green for buy signals and red for sell signals , along with options to adjust the text size and label styles for even more personalization. Traders can make the signals more or less prominent based on their preference, enhancing readability and workflow efficiency.
The indicator also includes a comprehensive alert system , ensuring traders never miss an opportunity. Alerts can be set for both buy and sell signals , and the system triggers in real-time when a valid signal is generated. This is especially useful for active traders who want to stay on top of the markets without constantly monitoring their screens. The alert system helps ensure that traders are notified of potential trading opportunities as soon as they arise, allowing them to act quickly in volatile markets.
From a practical standpoint, the "Signals Pro" indicator is designed to work seamlessly across multiple timeframes, making it suitable for scalpers, day traders, swing traders, and even long-term investors. Its flexibility allows it to adapt to different trading styles and time horizons, providing value for a wide range of market participants.
In summary, the Signals Pro indicator offers a robust and customizable solution for identifying buy and sell signals . By combining candle stability , RSI analysis , and engulfing patterns , the indicator provides traders with reliable signals to enter or exit trades. The ability to customize signal appearance, coupled with a real-time alert system , makes the "Signals Pro" indicator an invaluable tool for traders looking to improve their timing and decision-making. Whether you are looking to capture short-term price movements or want to time entries and exits in longer-term trends, this indicator offers the insights needed to navigate the markets with confidence.
ICT CheckListCredit to the owner of this script "TalesOfTrader"
The Awakening Checklist indicator is a tool designed to help traders evaluate certain key market conditions and elements before making trading decisions. It consists of a series of questions that the trader must answer using the options "Yes", "No" or "N/A" (not applicable).
“Has Asia Session ended?” : This question aims to determine if the Asian trading session has ended. The answer to this question can influence trading strategies depending on market conditions.
“Have you identified potential medium induction?” : This question concerns the identification of potential average inductions on the market. Recognizing these inductions can help traders anticipate future price movements.
"Have you identified potential PoI's": This question asks about the identification of potential points of interest on the market. These points of interest can indicate areas of significant support or resistance.
"Have you identified in which direction they are creating lQ?" : This question aims to determine in which direction market participants create liquidity (lQ). Understanding this dynamic can help make informed trade decisions.
“Have they induced Asia Range”: This question concerns the induction of the Asian range by market participants. Recognizing this induction can be important in assessing future price movements.
“Have you had a medium induction”: This question asks about the presence of a medium induction on the market. The answer to this question can influence trading prospects.
“Do you have a BoS away from the induction”: This question aims to find out if the trader has an offer (BoS) far from the identified induction. This can be a risk management strategy.
"Doas your induction PoI have imbalance": This question concerns the imbalance of points of interest (PoI) linked to induction. Recognizing this imbalance can help anticipate price movements.
“Do you have a valid target in mind”: This question aims to find out if the trader has a clear trading objective in mind. Having a goal can help guide trading decisions and manage risk.
Bitcoin CME-Spot Z-Spread - Strategy [presentTrading]This time is a swing trading strategy! It measures the sentiment of the Bitcoin market through the spread of CME Bitcoin Futures and Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot prices. By applying Bollinger Bands to the spread, the strategy seeks to capture mean-reversion opportunities when prices deviate significantly from their historical norms
█ Introduction and How it is Different
The Bitcoin CME-Spot Bollinger Bands Strategy is designed to capture mean-reversion opportunities by exploiting the spread between CME Bitcoin Futures and Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot prices. The strategy uses Bollinger Bands to detect when the spread between these two correlated assets has deviated significantly from its historical norm, signaling potential overbought or oversold conditions.
What sets this strategy apart is its focus on spread trading between futures and spot markets rather than price-based indicators. By applying Bollinger Bands to the spread rather than individual prices, the strategy identifies price inefficiencies across markets, allowing traders to take advantage of the natural reversion to the mean that often occurs in these correlated assets.
BTCUSD 8hr Performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The strategy relies on Bollinger Bands to assess the volatility and relative deviation of the spread between CME Bitcoin Futures and Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot prices. Bollinger Bands consist of a moving average and two standard deviation bands, which help measure how much the spread deviates from its historical mean.
🔶 Spread Calculation:
The spread is calculated by subtracting the Bitfinex spot price from the CME Bitcoin futures price:
Spread = CME Price - Bitfinex Price
This spread represents the difference between the futures and spot markets, which may widen or narrow based on supply and demand dynamics in each market. By analyzing the spread, the strategy can detect when prices are too far apart (potentially overbought or oversold), indicating a trading opportunity.
🔶 Bollinger Bands Calculation:
The Bollinger Bands for the spread are calculated using a simple moving average (SMA) and the standard deviation of the spread over a defined period.
1. Moving Average (SMA):
The simple moving average of the spread (mu_S) over a specified period P is calculated as:
mu_S = (1/P) * sum(S_i from i=1 to P)
Where S_i represents the spread at time i, and P is the lookback period (default is 200 bars). The moving average provides a baseline for the normal spread behavior.
2. Standard Deviation:
The standard deviation (sigma_S) of the spread is calculated to measure the volatility of the spread:
sigma_S = sqrt((1/P) * sum((S_i - mu_S)^2 from i=1 to P))
3. Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands:
The upper and lower Bollinger Bands are derived by adding and subtracting a multiple of the standard deviation from the moving average. The number of standard deviations is determined by a user-defined parameter k (default is 2.618).
- Upper Band:
Upper Band = mu_S + (k * sigma_S)
- Lower Band:
Lower Band = mu_S - (k * sigma_S)
These bands provide a dynamic range within which the spread typically fluctuates. When the spread moves outside of these bands, it is considered overbought or oversold, potentially offering trading opportunities.
Local view
🔶 Entry Conditions:
- Long Entry: A long position is triggered when the spread crosses below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that the spread has become oversold and is likely to revert upward.
Spread < Lower Band
- Short Entry: A short position is triggered when the spread crosses above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the spread has become overbought and is likely to revert downward.
Spread > Upper Band
🔶 Risk Management and Profit-Taking:
The strategy incorporates multi-step take profits to lock in gains as the trade moves in favor. The position is gradually reduced at predefined profit levels, reducing risk while allowing part of the trade to continue running if the price keeps moving favorably.
Additionally, the strategy uses a hold period exit mechanism. If the trade does not hit any of the take-profit levels within a certain number of bars, the position is closed automatically to avoid excessive exposure to market risks.
█ Trade Direction
The trade direction is based on deviations of the spread from its historical norm:
- Long Trade: The strategy enters a long position when the spread crosses below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling an oversold condition where the spread is expected to narrow.
- Short Trade: The strategy enters a short position when the spread crosses above the upper Bollinger Band, signaling an overbought condition where the spread is expected to widen.
These entries rely on the assumption of mean reversion, where extreme deviations from the average spread are likely to revert over time.
█ Usage
The Bitcoin CME-Spot Bollinger Bands Strategy is ideal for traders looking to capitalize on price inefficiencies between Bitcoin futures and spot markets. It’s especially useful in volatile markets where large deviations between futures and spot prices occur.
- Market Conditions: This strategy is most effective in correlated markets, like CME futures and spot Bitcoin. Traders can adjust the Bollinger Bands period and standard deviation multiplier to suit different volatility regimes.
- Backtesting: Before deployment, backtesting the strategy across different market conditions and timeframes is recommended to ensure robustness. Adjust the take-profit steps and hold periods to reflect the trader’s risk tolerance and market behavior.
█ Default Settings
The default settings provide a balanced approach to spread trading using Bollinger Bands but can be adjusted depending on market conditions or personal trading preferences.
🔶 Bollinger Bands Period (200 bars):
This defines the number of bars used to calculate the moving average and standard deviation for the Bollinger Bands. A longer period smooths out short-term fluctuations and focuses on larger, more significant trends. Adjusting the period affects the responsiveness of the strategy:
- Shorter periods (e.g., 100 bars): Makes the strategy more reactive to short-term market fluctuations, potentially generating more signals but increasing the risk of false positives.
- Longer periods (e.g., 300 bars): Focuses on longer-term trends, reducing the frequency of trades and focusing only on significant deviations.
🔶 Standard Deviation Multiplier (2.618):
The multiplier controls how wide the Bollinger Bands are around the moving average. By default, the bands are set at 2.618 standard deviations away from the average, ensuring that only significant deviations trigger trades.
- Higher multipliers (e.g., 3.0): Require a more extreme deviation to trigger trades, reducing trade frequency but potentially increasing the accuracy of signals.
- Lower multipliers (e.g., 2.0): Make the bands narrower, increasing the number of trade signals but potentially decreasing their reliability.
🔶 Take-Profit Levels:
The strategy has four take-profit levels to gradually lock in profits:
- Level 1 (3%): 25% of the position is closed at a 3% profit.
- Level 2 (8%): 20% of the position is closed at an 8% profit.
- Level 3 (14%): 15% of the position is closed at a 14% profit.
- Level 4 (21%): 10% of the position is closed at a 21% profit.
Adjusting these take-profit levels affects how quickly profits are realized:
- Lower take-profit levels: Capture gains more quickly, reducing risk but potentially cutting off larger profits.
- Higher take-profit levels: Let trades run longer, aiming for bigger gains but increasing the risk of price reversals before profits are locked in.
🔶 Hold Days (20 bars):
The strategy automatically closes the position after 20 bars if none of the take-profit levels are hit. This feature prevents trades from being held indefinitely, especially if market conditions are stagnant. Adjusting this:
- Shorter hold periods: Reduce the duration of exposure, minimizing risks from market changes but potentially closing trades too early.
- Longer hold periods: Allow trades to stay open longer, increasing the chance for mean reversion but also increasing exposure to unfavorable market conditions.
By understanding how these default settings affect the strategy’s performance, traders can optimize the Bitcoin CME-Spot Bollinger Bands Strategy to their preferences, adapting it to different market environments and risk tolerances.
Price Action Volumetric Breaker Blocks [UAlgo]The Price Action Volumetric Breaker Blocks indicator is designed to identify and visualize significant price levels in the market. It combines concepts of price action, volume analysis, and market structure to provide traders with a comprehensive view of potential support and resistance areas. This indicator identifies "breaker blocks," which are price zones where the market has shown significant interest in the past.
These blocks are created based on swing highs and lows, and are further analyzed using volume data to determine their strength. The indicator also tracks market structure shifts, providing additional context to price movements.
By visualizing these key levels and market structure changes, traders can gain insights into potential areas of price reversal or continuation, helping them make more informed trading decisions.
🔶 Key Features
Dynamic Breaker Block Identification: The indicator automatically detects and draws breaker blocks based on swing highs and lows. These blocks represent areas of potential support and resistance.
Volume-Weighted Strength Analysis: Each breaker block is analyzed using volume data to determine its bullish and bearish strength. This is visually represented by the proportion of green (bullish) and red (bearish) coloring within each block.
Market Structure Break (MSB) and Break of Structure (BOS): The indicator identifies and labels Market Structure Breaks (MSB) and Break of Structure (BOS) events, providing context to larger market trends.
Customizable Settings:
- Adjustable swing length for identifying pivot points
- Option to show a specific number of recent breaker blocks
- Choice between wick or close price for violation checks
- Toggle to hide overlapping blocks for cleaner analysis
Violation Detection: Automatically detects when a breaker block has been violated (broken through), either by wick or close price, depending on user settings.
Overlap Control: Provides an option to hide overlapping order blocks, ensuring that the chart remains clean and easy to read when multiple blocks are detected in close proximity.
🔶 Interpreting Indicator
Breaker Blocks:
Breaker blocks are key areas where the price moves through and invalidates a previously identified order block. The indicator detects a breaker block when the price violates an order block by exceeding its high or low (depending on whether it's a bullish or bearish block). This violation is determined by either the wick or the close of a candle, depending on the user's selection in the "Violation Check" setting. When a breaker block is detected, the indicator removes the violated order block from the chart, signaling that the zone is no longer relevant for future price action.
Bullish Breaker Block: This occurs when a bearish order block (red) is violated by the price closing above the block’s top boundary or when the wick surpasses this level. It signals that a prior bearish structure has been invalidated, and the market may shift to a bullish trend.
Bearish Breaker Block: This occurs when a bullish order block (teal) is violated by the price closing below the block’s bottom boundary or when the wick drops below it. It suggests that a previous bullish structure has been broken, indicating potential bearish momentum.
Market Structure Labels:
"MSB" (Market Structure Break) labels indicate a potential change in trend direction.
"BOS" (Break of Structure) labels confirm the continuation of the current trend after breaking a significant level.
Block Strength:
A block with more green indicates stronger bullish interest.
A block with more red indicates stronger bearish interest.
The relative sizes of the green and red portions show the balance of power between buyers and sellers at that level.
🔶 Disclaimer
Use with Caution: This indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Users should exercise caution and perform their own analysis before making trading decisions based on the indicator's signals.
Not Financial Advice: The information provided by this indicator does not constitute financial advice, and the creator (UAlgo) shall not be held responsible for any trading losses incurred as a result of using this indicator.
Backtesting Recommended: Traders are encouraged to backtest the indicator thoroughly on historical data before using it in live trading to assess its performance and suitability for their trading strategies.
Risk Management: Trading involves inherent risks, and users should implement proper risk management strategies, including but not limited to stop-loss orders and position sizing, to mitigate potential losses.
No Guarantees: The accuracy and reliability of the indicator's signals cannot be guaranteed, as they are based on historical price data and past performance may not be indicative of future results.
BTC Arcturus IndicatorBTC Arcturus Indicator: This indicator is designed to create buy and sell signals based on the market value of Bitcoin. It also predicts potential market tops with the Pi Cycle Top indicator.
How Does It Work?
1. MVRVZ (Market Value to Realized Value-Z Score) Calculation:
MC: Bitcoin's market cap (Market Cap) is pulled daily from Glassnode data.
MCR: Realized Market Cap of Bitcoin is taken daily from Coinmetrics data.
MVRVZ: It is calculated by dividing the difference between Bitcoin's market value and realized market value by one standard deviation. This value indicates whether the market is overvalued or undervalued.
2. Reception and Warning Signals:
Buy Signal: When MVRVZ falls below the -0.255 threshold value, the indicator gives a "Buy" signal. This indicates that Bitcoin is undervalued and may be a buying opportunity.
Warning Signal: A warning signal turns on when MVRVZ exceeds the threshold value of 2.765. This indicates that the market is approaching saturation and caution is warranted.
3. Tracking the Highest MVRVZ Value:
The indicator records the highest MVRVZ value in the last 10 candlesticks. This value is used to determine whether the market has reached its highest risk levels.
4. Warning Display:
If the MVRVZ value matches the highest value in the last 10 bars and this warning has not been displayed before, a "Warning" signal is displayed.
Once the warning signal is shown, no further warnings are shown for 10 candles.
5. Pi Cycle Top Indicator:
Pi Cycle Top: This indicator predicts Bitcoin tops by comparing two moving averages (350-day and 111-day). If the short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average, this is considered a sell signal.
The indicator displays this signal with the label "Sell", indicating a potential market top.
User Guide:
Green Buy Signal: It means Bitcoin is cheap and offers a buying opportunity.
Yellow Warning Signal: Indicates that Bitcoin has reached possible profit taking points and caution should be exercised.
Red Sell Signal: Indicates that Bitcoin has reached market saturation and it may be appropriate to sell.
HMA Smoothed RSI [Pinescriptlabs]This indicator uses a modified version of the RSI (Relative Strength Index) weighted by volume. This means it not only takes into account the price but also the amount of volume supporting those price movements, making the indicator more sensitive to real market fluctuations.
Hull Moving Average (HMA) Applied to RSI: To smooth the volume-weighted RSI, a Hull Moving Average (HMA) is applied. The HMA is known for its ability to reduce market "noise" and quickly react to trend changes. This process helps better identify when an asset is overbought or oversold.
Overbought and Oversold Regions: The indicator sets clear overbought and oversold levels, which are adjustable. By default, the overbought level is set at 20 and the oversold level at -20, but you can customize these values. Additionally, there are extreme overbought and oversold levels to help identify more extreme market conditions where a price reversal is more likely.
Buy and Sell Signals:
Buy Signal: This is generated when the modified RSI crosses above the oversold level. This indicates that the price has dropped enough and may be about to rise.
Sell Signal: This occurs when the RSI crosses below the overbought level. This suggests that the price has risen too much and could be about to fall.
Dynamic Visualization and Colors: The indicator is displayed with different colors based on its behavior:
When the RSI is within normal levels, the color is neutral.
If it is above the overbought level, the color turns red (sell alert).
If it is below the oversold level, the color turns green (buy alert).
Alerts: This indicator also allows you to set up alerts. You will receive automatic notifications when buy or sell signals are generated, helping you make decisions without constantly monitoring the chart.
Español:
Este indicador utiliza una versión modificada del RSI (Índice de Fuerza Relativa), ponderado por volumen. Esto significa que no solo tiene en cuenta el precio, sino también la cantidad de volumen que respalda esos movimientos de precios, haciendo que el indicador sea más sensible a las fluctuaciones reales del mercado.
Media Móvil Hull (HMA) aplicada al RSI: Para suavizar el RSI ponderado por volumen, se le aplica una Media Móvil Hull (HMA). La HMA es conocida por su capacidad para reducir el "ruido" del mercado y reaccionar rápidamente a los cambios de tendencia. Este proceso ayuda a identificar mejor cuándo un activo está sobrecomprado o sobrevendido.
Regiones de sobrecompra y sobreventa: El indicador establece niveles claros de sobrecompra y sobreventa que son ajustables. Por defecto, el nivel de sobrecompra está en 20 y el de sobreventa en -20, pero puedes personalizar estos valores. Además, hay niveles extremos de sobrecompra y sobreventa que te ayudan a identificar condiciones más extremas del mercado, donde una reversión de precio es más probable.
Señales de compra y venta:
Señal de compra: Se genera cuando el RSI modificado cruza hacia arriba el nivel de sobreventa. Esto indica que el precio ha bajado lo suficiente y puede estar a punto de subir.
Señal de venta: Se produce cuando el RSI cruza hacia abajo el nivel de sobrecompra. Esto indica que el precio ha subido demasiado y podría estar a punto de bajar.
Visualización y colores dinámicos: El indicador se muestra con diferentes colores según su comportamiento:
Cuando el RSI está dentro de los niveles normales, el color es neutro.
Si está por encima del nivel de sobrecompra, el color se vuelve rojo (señal de alerta de venta).
Si está por debajo del nivel de sobreventa, el color se vuelve verde (señal de alerta de compra).
Alertas: Este indicador también te permite configurar alertas. Así, recibirás notificaciones automáticas cuando se generen señales de compra o venta, ayudándote a tomar decisiones sin estar constantemente monitoreando el gráfico.
Ultra High/LowThe Ultra High/Low script helps traders track key price levels by automatically marking significant highs and lows on a chart, highlighting potential reversal points for future trading decisions.
Introduction
The Ultra High/Low script identifies and marks significant highs and lows on a trading chart. These are specific points where the price reached a peak or bottomed out before reversing. The script draws lines at these levels, which can be extended, and it also labels the exact price at these points. This makes it easy for traders to see where the price has changed direction previously, helping them make more informed trading decisions.
Detailed Description
In more detail, the Ultra High/Low script is designed using Pine Script™, a programming language used for creating custom indicators and strategies on the TradingView platform. Here's how it works:
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Detection of Pivot Highs and Lows
The script identifies "pivot highs" and "pivot lows." These are points on the chart where the price reached a local maximum or minimum, surrounded by lower highs (for pivot highs) or higher lows (for pivot lows).
The user can customize how many bars to the left and right of the high or low the script should consider to confirm a pivot (Length argument in the settings).
The script uses Pine Script functions for pivot detection. ta.pivothigh() and ta.pivotlow() .
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Drawing Lines and Labels
Once a pivot is identified, the script draws a dashed line from the pivot point to the current price bar. This line helps visualize where significant price reversals have occurred.
The script also adds a label next to these lines showing the exact price of the pivot point. This label also shows "PDH" (Previous Day High) or "PDL" (Previous Day Low) if the pivot is PDH or PDL. Same for "PWH" (Previous Week High) and "PWL" (Previous Week Low).
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Purging and Extending Lines
If the price crosses a pivot line after it has been drawn, the script can either delete the old line (purged line) or keep it and add additional indicators to show that the line has been liquidated.
The script also has options to extend the lines into the right.
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Custom Inputs
The script offers several customizable options, like the color of the lines and labels, whether to show the exact price or not, and whether to extend the lines. This allows traders to tailor the indicator to their specific needs and preferences.
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Overall, the Ultra High/Low script is a powerful visual aid for identifying critical price levels that may influence future price movements, making it easier for traders to make decisions based on historical price behavior.
Saral Relative StrengthRelative Strength Indicator
### Overview
The Relative Strength (RS) Indicator is a robust tool designed to measure the performance of a security relative to a benchmark or another security. Unlike traditional indicators, this RS Indicator calculates the outperformance or underperformance in percentage terms, providing a clear and concise comparison.
The equation for calculation can be found in the code itself. This equation compares how much a security's price has changed over a given period (len) relative to the change in price of a benchmark over the same period. The result is expressed as a percentage, showing whether the security has outperformed or underperformed the benchmark. A positive RS value indicates outperformance, while a negative value signals underperformance.
Basically, this indicator is an enhanced version of 'Relative Strength' indicator of 'BharatTrader' Sir with added features like automatic divergence plotting, color-coded filled area and sector names for NSE F&O securities. Default values for some of the parameters are based on discussion by Subhadip Nandy Sir in Trader's Talk with Mr. Rohit Katwal.
### Input Parameters:
Source: The price of a security used in the calculation, with the default being the 'close' price.
Comparative Symbol: Ticker ID of the comparative security, with the default set to NIFTY 50.
Period-RS: The period for calculating the RS line, with a default of 22. The RS line measures the relative performance of the security against the benchmark, helping to identify outperformance or underperformance over time.
Period-MA: The period for calculating the Simple Moving Average (SMA) overlay on the RS line, with a default of 11. The SMA provides a smoothed view of the RS line, helping to identify trends more clearly.
Lookback - Zero Line Trend: Zero Line Trend look-back period, used to determine the angle of the RS line, with a default of 5. This parameter influences the color of the Zero Line based on whether the RS line’s angle is positive or negative.
Lookback - Divergence: Divergence look-back period, with a default of 2, used to detect divergence between the price and the RS line.
Display MA Line: Controls the display of the SMA line. When enabled, the SMA line is plotted over the RS line to indicate trend strength.
Toggle RS Color on MA Crossovers: Controls the color of the RS line. If disabled, the RS line is purple. If enabled, the RS line changes color based on its position relative to the SMA: green for RS > MA, red for RS < MA.
Display Zero Line Trend: Controls the display of the Zero Line. If disabled, the Zero Line is black. If enabled, the Zero Line’s color changes to green or maroon based on the RS line’s angle over time.
Display Divergence: Controls the display of divergence dots on the RS line, indicating potential reversal points.
Display Filled Area: Controls whether the area between the Zero Line and the RS line is filled with color. The fill color changes based on the relationship of the RS line with the SMA & Zero Line as given below.
- Dark Green: RS > 0 and RS > MA, indicating strong outperformance.
- Light Green: RS > 0 and RS < MA, indicating weakening outperformance.
- Dark Red: RS < 0 and RS < MA, indicating strong underperformance.
- Light Red: RS < 0 and RS > MA, indicating weakening underperformance.
Display Sector Name: Controls the display of sector names for NSE F&O securities, helping to plot RS with sectoral indices.
### Key Features:
RS Line:
The RS line represents the relative performance of a security against a benchmark over a specified period (default 22). It helps traders identify whether the security is outperforming or underperforming the benchmark.
SMA Overlay:
A Simple Moving Average (SMA) line is plotted over the RS line, with a default period of 11. The SMA provides a smoothed trend of the RS, making it easier to identify consistent performance trends.
Trend-Sensitive Zero Line:
The Zero Line’s color adapts based on the RS line’s trend:
- Green: Positive angle of the RS line, indicating upward momentum.
- Maroon: Negative angle, indicating downward momentum.
The color can be toggled, with an option to display the Zero Line in black.
Divergence Detection:
Automatically detects and highlights divergences.
- Positive Divergence: RS line rises while the price falls, marked by blue dots.
- Negative Divergence: RS line falls while the price rises, marked by black dots.
Color-Coded Fill Area:
The area between the RS line and the Zero Line is filled with color to visually distinguish different market conditions, with Dark and Light colors providing insight into the strength of the performance:
- Dark Green: Indicates strong outperformance (RS > 0 and RS > MA), suggesting the security is showing significant strength compared to the benchmark.
- Light Green: Indicates weakening outperformance (RS > 0 and RS < MA), signaling that while the security is still outperforming, its strength is diminishing.
- Dark Red: Indicates strong underperformance (RS < 0 and RS < MA), showing the security is significantly weaker than the benchmark.
- Light Red: Indicates weakening underperformance (RS < 0 and RS > MA), suggesting the security is still underperforming but may be regaining some strength.
Sectoral Strength:
Displays sector names for NSE F&O securities, helping users to compare the RS of individual securities with their respective sectoral indices. Comparative Security can be changed easily based on this sector name. Users need not to remember sector names for individual securities.
If any security is not categorized in a specific sector, CNX500 has been considered as a default sector for NSE F&O securities. For other securities, NIFTY50 has been considered as a default sector.
ABCD Projection [Trendoscope®]Over the years, we have extensively explored and published numerous scripts centered around various chart patterns, including Harmonic Patterns, Reversal Patterns, Elliott Waves, and more. Our expertise in these areas has led to frequent requests for an indicator based on the ABCD pattern. Although we didn't include it as part of our Harmonic Patterns collection, the development of a dedicated ABCD Projection Indicator has always been a priority for us.
🎲 Overview of the ABCD Projection Indicator
The ABCD Projection Indicator is designed to identify and project ABCD patterns using a Zigzag-based approach. This pattern, characterized by alternating pivot highs and lows labeled as A, B, C, and D, is particularly significant in trending markets where it signifies trend continuation following deep pullbacks.
The indicator works by confirming the ABC pivots and projecting the D pivot based on the established price swings. Since ABCD patterns are most effective in trending environments, the indicator focuses on filtering patterns where the retracement from the C pivot has not compromised the trade's potential. Specifically, it ensures that the starting point (S)—where the pattern is detected—has not retraced beyond a defined threshold, preserving the opportunity to execute a trade with the goal of reaching the projected D pivot.
Additionally, the ABCD Projection Indicator considers the retracement ratio from the C pivot, which plays a crucial role in risk management. A higher retracement ratio reduces the stop distance (from pivot A to the entry point S) while increasing the distance to the target (pivot D), thereby enhancing the reward/risk ratio for trades.
🎲 Components of the ABCD Projection Indicator
The ABCD Projection Indicator comprises several key components:
A, B, C Pivots and Zigzag Wave : These elements form the foundational structure of the ABCD pattern.
S Point : This is the location where the pattern is identified, positioned a few bars away from the confirmed C pivot.
Estimated D Pivot : The D pivot is projected based on the A, B, and C price levels. The time or distance to the D pivot is influenced by the starting point S.
Mini Stats Table : Located in the top right corner, this table displays win/loss ratios and risk/reward data for both bullish and bearish scenarios.
Fibonacci Levels : Calculated from the C to D pivots, these levels are provided as a reference for additional analysis.
🎲 Indicator Settings
The settings for the ABCD Projection Indicator are minimal and intuitive, with tooltips provided to guide users through the configuration process.
LIT - Awakening CheckList v.1The Awakening Checklist indicator is a tool designed to help traders evaluate certain key market conditions and elements before making trading decisions. It consists of a series of questions that the trader must answer using the options "Yes", "No" or "N/A" (not applicable).
“Has Asia Session ended?” : This question aims to determine if the Asian trading session has ended. The answer to this question can influence trading strategies depending on market conditions.
“Have you identified potential medium induction?” : This question concerns the identification of potential average inductions on the market. Recognizing these inductions can help traders anticipate future price movements.
"Have you identified potential PoI's": This question asks about the identification of potential points of interest on the market. These points of interest can indicate areas of significant support or resistance.
"Have you identified in which direction they are creating lQ?" : This question aims to determine in which direction market participants create liquidity (lQ). Understanding this dynamic can help make informed trade decisions.
“Have they induced Asia Range”: This question concerns the induction of the Asian range by market participants. Recognizing this induction can be important in assessing future price movements.
“Have you had a medium induction”: This question asks about the presence of a medium induction on the market. The answer to this question can influence trading prospects.
“Do you have a BoS away from the induction”: This question aims to find out if the trader has an offer (BoS) far from the identified induction. This can be a risk management strategy.
"Doas your induction PoI have imbalance": This question concerns the imbalance of points of interest (PoI) linked to induction. Recognizing this imbalance can help anticipate price movements.
“Do you have a valid target in mind”: This question aims to find out if the trader has a clear trading objective in mind. Having a goal can help guide trading decisions and manage risk.
Release Notes
The Awakening Checklist indicator is a tool designed to help traders evaluate certain key market conditions and elements before making trading decisions. It consists of a series of questions that the trader must answer using the options "Yes", "No" or "N/A" (not applicable).
Last Candle OHLC (Ticks or Points)What the Code Does
1. **Draws Lines and Labels**:
- It draws lines on your chart to show the high, low, open, and close prices from the previous period (like the previous day or week).
- It also labels these lines with numbers that tell you how far the current price is from these levels.
2. **Shows Price Movement**:
- You can see how far the price has moved from these levels in terms of small price changes (ticks) or larger units (points).
- This helps you understand price movements and potential levels of support or resistance.
3. **Customizable**:
- You can choose whether to show these lines and labels, and you can select if you want to see the movement in ticks or points.
- The lines can extend into the future on your chart to help you anticipate where prices might be in the coming days.
### How It’s Useful:
1. **Identify Key Levels**:
- It helps you spot important price levels from past periods, which can act as support or resistance.
2. **Understand Price Movement**:
- You get a visual sense of how much the price has moved from key levels, which can help you gauge market volatility.
3. **Plan Trades**:
- By seeing where the price has been and how it has moved, you can better plan your trades, like deciding where to enter or exit based on these levels.
4. **Flexible for Different Markets**:
- It works across various markets, like stocks, futures, and forex, adjusting to the specific characteristics of each instrument.
In short, this tool helps you visualize and understand past price movements and levels on your chart, aiding in your trading decisions.
Multiple Naked LevelsPURPOSE OF THE INDICATOR
This indicator autogenerates and displays naked levels and gaps of multiple types collected into one simple and easy to use indicator.
VALUE PROPOSITION OF THE INDICATOR AND HOW IT IS ORIGINAL AND USEFUL
1) CONVENIENCE : The purpose of this indicator is to offer traders with one coherent and robust indicator providing useful, valuable, and often used levels - in one place.
2) CLUSTERS OF CONFLUENCES : With this indicator it is easy to identify levels and zones on the chart with multiple confluences increasing the likelihood of a potential reversal zone.
THE TYPES OF LEVELS AND GAPS INCLUDED IN THE INDICATOR
The types of levels include the following:
1) PIVOT levels (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnPIV, wnPIV, mnPIV.
2) POC (Point of Control) levels (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnPoC, wnPoC, mnPoC.
3) VAH/VAL STD 1 levels (Value Area High/Low with 1 std) (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnVAH1/dnVAL1, wnVAH1/wnVAL1, mnVAH1/mnVAL1
4) VAH/VAL STD 2 levels (Value Area High/Low with 2 std) (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnVAH2/dnVAL2, wnVAH2/wnVAL2, mnVAH1/mnVAL2
5) FAIR VALUE GAPS (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnFVG, wnFVG, mnFVG.
6) CME GAPS (Daily) depicted in the chart as: dnCME.
7) EQUILIBRIUM levels (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as dnEQ, wnEQ, mnEQ.
HOW-TO ACTIVATE LEVEL TYPES AND TIMEFRAMES AND HOW-TO USE THE INDICATOR
You can simply choose which of the levels to be activated and displayed by clicking on the desired radio button in the settings menu.
You can locate the settings menu by clicking into the Object Tree window, left-click on the Multiple Naked Levels and select Settings.
You will then get a menu of different level types and timeframes. Click the checkboxes for the level types and timeframes that you want to display on the chart.
You can then go into the chart and check out which naked levels that have appeared. You can then use those levels as part of your technical analysis.
The levels displayed on the chart can serve as additional confluences or as part of your overall technical analysis and indicators.
In order to back-test the impact of the different naked levels you can also enable tapped levels to be depicted on the chart. Do this by toggling the 'Show tapped levels' checkbox.
Keep in mind however that Trading View can not shom more than 500 lines and text boxes so the indocator will not be able to give you the complete history back to the start for long duration assets.
In order to clean up the charts a little bit there are two additional settings that can be used in the Settings menu:
- Selecting the price range (%) from the current price to be included in the chart. The default is 25%. That means that all levels below or above 20% will not be displayed. You can set this level yourself from 0 up to 100%.
- Selecting the minimum gap size to include on the chart. The default is 1%. That means that all gaps/ranges below 1% in price difference will not be displayed on the chart. You can set the minimum gap size yourself.
BASIC DESCRIPTION OF THE INNER WORKINGS OF THE INDICTATOR
The way the indicator works is that it calculates and identifies all levels from the list of levels type and timeframes above. The indicator then adds this level to a list of untapped levels.
Then for each bar after, it checks if the level has been tapped. If the level has been tapped or a gap/range completely filled, this level is removed from the list so that the levels displayed in the end are only naked/untapped levels.
Below is a descrition of each of the level types and how it is caluclated (algorithm):
PIVOT
Daily, Weekly and Monthly levels in trading refer to significant price points that traders monitor within the context of a single trading day. These levels can provide insights into market behavior and help traders make informed decisions regarding entry and exit points.
Traders often use D/W/M levels to set entry and exit points for trades. For example, entering long positions near support (daily close) or selling near resistance (daily close).
Daily levels are used to set stop-loss orders. Placing stops just below the daily close for long positions or above the daily close for short positions can help manage risk.
The relationship between price movement and daily levels provides insights into market sentiment. For instance, if the price fails to break above the daily high, it may signify bearish sentiment, while a strong breakout can indicate bullish sentiment.
The way these levels are calculated in this indicator is based on finding pivots in the chart on D/W/M timeframe. The level is then set to previous D/W/M close = current D/W/M open.
In addition, when price is going up previous D/W/M open must be smaller than previous D/W/M close and current D/W/M close must be smaller than the current D/W/M open. When price is going down the opposite.
POINT OF CONTROL
The Point of Control (POC) is a key concept in volume profile analysis, which is commonly used in trading.
It represents the price level at which the highest volume of trading occurred during a specific period.
The POC is derived from the volume traded at various price levels over a defined time frame. In this indicator the timeframes are Daily, Weekly, and Montly.
It identifies the price level where the most trades took place, indicating strong interest and activity from traders at that price.
The POC often acts as a significant support or resistance level. If the price approaches the POC from above, it may act as a support level, while if approached from below, it can serve as a resistance level. Traders monitor the POC to gauge potential reversals or breakouts.
The way the POC is calculated in this indicator is by an approximation by analysing intrabars for the respective timeperiod (D/W/M), assigning the volume for each intrabar into the price-bins that the intrabar covers and finally identifying the bin with the highest aggregated volume.
The POC is the price in the middle of this bin.
The indicator uses a sample space for intrabars on the Daily timeframe of 15 minutes, 35 minutes for the Weekly timeframe, and 140 minutes for the Monthly timeframe.
The indicator has predefined the size of the bins to 0.2% of the price at the range low. That implies that the precision of the calulated POC og VAH/VAL is within 0.2%.
This reduction of precision is a tradeoff for performance and speed of the indicator.
This also implies that the bigger the difference from range high prices to range low prices the more bins the algorithm will iterate over. This is typically the case when calculating the monthly volume profile levels and especially high volatility assets such as alt coins.
Sometimes the number of iterations becomes too big for Trading View to handle. In these cases the bin size will be increased even more to reduce the number of iterations.
In such cases the bin size might increase by a factor of 2-3 decreasing the accuracy of the Volume Profile levels.
Anyway, since these Volume Profile levels are approximations and since precision is traded for performance the user should consider the Volume profile levels(POC, VAH, VAL) as zones rather than pin point accurate levels.
VALUE AREA HIGH/LOW STD1/STD2
The Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL) are important concepts in volume profile analysis, helping traders understand price levels where the majority of trading activity occurs for a given period.
The Value Area High/Low is the upper/lower boundary of the value area, representing the highest price level at which a certain percentage of the total trading volume occurred within a specified period.
The VAH/VAL indicates the price point above/below which the majority of trading activity is considered less valuable. It can serve as a potential resistance/support level, as prices above/below this level may experience selling/buying pressure from traders who view the price as overvalued/undervalued
In this indicator the timeframes are Daily, Weekly, and Monthly. This indicator provides two boundaries that can be selected in the menu.
The first boundary is 70% of the total volume (=1 standard deviation from mean). The second boundary is 95% of the total volume (=2 standard deviation from mean).
The way VAH/VAL is calculated is based on the same algorithm as for the POC.
However instead of identifying the bin with the highest volume, we start from range low and sum up the volume for each bin until the aggregated volume = 30%/70% for VAL1/VAH1 and aggregated volume = 5%/95% for VAL2/VAH2.
Then we simply set the VAL/VAH equal to the low of the respective bin.
FAIR VALUE GAPS
Fair Value Gaps (FVG) is a concept primarily used in technical analysis and price action trading, particularly within the context of futures and forex markets. They refer to areas on a price chart where there is a noticeable lack of trading activity, often highlighted by a significant price movement away from a previous level without trading occurring in between.
FVGs represent price levels where the market has moved significantly without any meaningful trading occurring. This can be seen as a "gap" on the price chart, where the price jumps from one level to another, often due to a rapid market reaction to news, events, or other factors.
These gaps typically appear when prices rise or fall quickly, creating a space on the chart where no transactions have taken place. For example, if a stock opens sharply higher and there are no trades at the prices in between the two levels, it creates a gap. The areas within these gaps can be areas of liquidity that the market may return to “fill” later on.
FVGs highlight inefficiencies in pricing and can indicate areas where the market may correct itself. When the market moves rapidly, it may leave behind price levels that traders eventually revisit to establish fair value.
Traders often watch for these gaps as potential reversal or continuation points. Many traders believe that price will eventually “fill” the gap, meaning it will return to those price levels, providing potential entry or exit points.
This indicator calculate FVGs on three different timeframes, Daily, Weekly and Montly.
In this indicator the FVGs are identified by looking for a three-candle pattern on a chart, signalling a discrete imbalance in order volume that prompts a quick price adjustment. These gaps reflect moments where the market sentiment strongly leans towards buying or selling yet lacks the opposite orders to maintain price stability.
The indicator sets the gap to the difference from the high of the first bar to the low of the third bar when price is moving up or from the low of the first bar to the high of the third bar when price is moving down.
CME GAPS (BTC only)
CME gaps refer to price discrepancies that can occur in charts for futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). These gaps typically arise from the fact that many futures markets, including those on the CME, operate nearly 24 hours a day but may have significant price movements during periods when the market is closed.
CME gaps occur when there is a difference between the closing price of a futures contract on one trading day and the opening price on the following trading day. This difference can create a "gap" on the price chart.
Opening Gaps: These usually happen when the market opens significantly higher or lower than the previous day's close, often influenced by news, economic data releases, or other market events occurring during non-trading hours.
Gaps can result from reactions to major announcements or developments, such as earnings reports, geopolitical events, or changes in economic indicators, leading to rapid price movements.
The importance of CME Gaps in Trading is the potential for Filling Gaps: Many traders believe that prices often "fill" gaps, meaning that prices may return to the gap area to establish fair value.
This can create potential trading opportunities based on the expectation of gap filling. Gaps can act as significant support or resistance levels. Traders monitor these levels to identify potential reversal points in price action.
The way the gap is identified in this indicator is by checking if current open is higher than previous bar close when price is moving up or if current open is lower than previous day close when price is moving down.
EQUILIBRIUM
Equilibrium in finance and trading refers to a state where supply and demand in a market balance each other, resulting in stable prices. It is a key concept in various economic and trading contexts. Here’s a concise description:
Market Equilibrium occurs when the quantity of a good or service supplied equals the quantity demanded at a specific price level. At this point, there is no inherent pressure for the price to change, as buyers and sellers are in agreement.
Equilibrium Price is the price at which the market is in equilibrium. It reflects the point where the supply curve intersects the demand curve on a graph. At the equilibrium price, the market clears, meaning there are no surplus goods or shortages.
In this indicator the equilibrium level is calculated simply by finding the midpoint of the Daily, Weekly, and Montly candles respectively.
NOTES
1) Performance. The algorithms are quite resource intensive and the time it takes the indicator to calculate all the levels could be 5 seconds or more, depending on the number of bars in the chart and especially if Montly Volume Profile levels are selected (POC, VAH or VAL).
2) Levels displayed vs the selected chart timeframe. On a timeframe smaller than the daily TF - both Daily, Weekly, and Monthly levels will be displayed. On a timeframe bigger than the daily TF but smaller than the weekly TF - the Weekly and Monthly levels will be display but not the Daily levels. On a timeframe bigger than the weekly TF but smaller than the monthly TF - only the Monthly levels will be displayed. Not Daily and Weekly.
CREDITS
The core algorithm for calculating the POC levels is based on the indicator "Naked Intrabar POC" developed by rumpypumpydumpy (https:www.tradingview.com/u/rumpypumpydumpy/).
The "Naked intrabar POC" indicator calculates the POC on the current chart timeframe.
This indicator (Multiple Naked Levels) adds two new features:
1) It calculates the POC on three specific timeframes, the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly timeframes - not only the current chart timeframe.
2) It adds functionaly by calculating the VAL and VAH of the volume profile on the Daily, Weekly, Monthly timeframes .
ICT Power Of Three | Flux Charts💎 GENERAL OVERVIEW
Introducing our new ICT Power Of Three Indicator! This indicator is built around the ICT's "Power Of Three" strategy. This strategy makes use of these 3 key smart money concepts : Accumulation, Manipulation and Distribution. Each step is explained in detail within this write-up. For more information about the process, check the "HOW DOES IT WORK" section.
Features of the new ICT Power Of Three Indicator :
Implementation of ICT's Power Of Three Strategy
Different Algorithm Modes
Customizable Execution Settings
Customizable Backtesting Dashboard
Alerts for Buy, Sell, TP & SL Signals
📌 HOW DOES IT WORK ?
The "Power Of Three" comes from these three keywords "Accumulation, Manipulation and Distribution". Here is a brief explanation of each keyword :
Accumulation -> Accumulation phase is when the smart money accumulate their positions in a fixed range. This phase indicates price stability, generally meaning that the price constantly switches between up & down trend between a low and a high pivot point. When the indicator detects an accumulation zone, the Power Of Three strategy begins.
Manipulation -> When the smart money needs to increase their position sizes, they need retail traders' positions for liquidity. So, they manipulate the market into the opposite direction of their intended direction. This will result in retail traders opening positions the way that the smart money intended them to do, creating liquidity. After this step, the real move that the smart money intended begins.
Distribution -> This is when the real intention of the smart money comes into action. With the new liquidity thanks to the manipulation phase, the smart money add their positions towards the opposite direction of the retail mindset. The purpose of this indicator is to detect the accumulation and manipulation phases, and help the trader move towards the same direction as the smart money for their trades.
Detection Methods Of The Indicator :
Accumulation -> The indicator detects accumulation zones as explained step-by-step :
1. Draw two lines from the lowest point and the highest point of the latest X bars.
2. If the (high line - low line) is lower than Average True Range (ATR) * accumulationConstant
3. After the condition is validated, an accumulation zone is detected. The accumulation zone will be invalidated and manipulation phase will begin when the range is broken.
Manipulation -> If the accumulation range is broken, check if the current bar closes / wicks above the (high line + ATR * manipulationConstant) or below the (low line - ATR * manipulationConstant). If the condition is met, the indicator detects a manipulation zone.
Distribution -> The purpose of this indicator is to try to foresee the distribution zone, so instead of a detection, after the manipulation zone is detected the indicator automatically create a "shadow" distribution zone towards the opposite direction of the freshly detected manipulation zone. This shadow distribution zone comes with a take-profit and stop-loss layout, customizable by the trader in the settings.
The X bars, accumulationConstant and manipulationConstant are subject to change with the "Algorithm Mode" setting. Read the "Settings" section for more information.
This indicator follows these steps and inform you step by step by plotting them in your chart.
🚩UNIQUENESS
This indicator is an all-in-one suite for the ICT's Power Of Three concept. It's capable of plotting the strategy, giving signals, a backtesting dashboard and alerts feature. Different and customizable algorithm modes will help the trader fine-tune the indicator for the asset they are currently trading. The backtesting dashboard allows you to see how your settings perform in the current ticker. You can also set up alerts to get informed when the strategy is executable for different tickers.
⚙️SETTINGS
1. General Configuration
Algorithm Mode -> The indicator offers 3 different detection algorithm modes according to your needs. Here is the explanation of each mode.
a) Small Manipulation
This mode has the default bar length for the accumulation detection, but a lower manipulation constant, meaning that slighter imbalances in the price action can be detected as manipulation. This setting can be useful on tickers that have lower liquidity, thus can be manipulated easier.
b) Big Manipulation
This mode has the default bar length for the accumulation detection, but a higher manipulation constant, meaning that heavier imbalances on the price action are required in order to detect manipulation zones. This setting can be useful on tickers that have higher liquidity, thus can be manipulated harder.
c) Short Accumulation
This mode has a ~70% lower bar length requirement for accumulation zone detection, and the default manipulation constant. This setting can be useful on tickers that are highly volatile and do not enter accumulation phases too often.
Breakout Method -> If "Close" is selected, bar close price will be taken into calculation when Accumulation & Manipulation zone invalidation. If "Wick" is selected, a wick will be enough to validate the corresponding zone.
2. TP / SL
TP / SL Method -> If "Fixed" is selected, you can adjust the TP / SL ratios from the settings below. If "Dynamic" is selected, the TP / SL zones will be auto-determined by the algorithm.
Risk -> The risk you're willing to take if "Dynamic" TP / SL Method is selected. Higher risk usually means a better winrate at the cost of losing more if the strategy fails. This setting is has a crucial effect on the performance of the indicator, as different tickers may have different volatility so the indicator may have increased performance when this setting is correctly adjusted.
3. Visuals
Show Zones -> Enables / Disables rendering of Accumulation (yellow) and Manipulation (red) zones.
Harmonic Patterns Library [TradingFinder]🔵 Introduction
Harmonic patterns blend geometric shapes with Fibonacci numbers, making these numbers fundamental to understanding the patterns.
One person who has done a lot of research on harmonic patterns is Scott Carney.Scott Carney's research on harmonic patterns in technical analysis focuses on precise price structures based on Fibonacci ratios to identify market reversals.
Key patterns include the Gartley, Bat, Butterfly, and Crab, each with specific alignment criteria. These patterns help traders anticipate potential market turning points and make informed trading decisions, enhancing the predictability of technical analysis.
🟣 Understanding 5-Point Harmonic Patterns
In the current library version, you can easily draw and customize most XABCD patterns. These patterns often form M or W shapes, or a combination of both. By calculating the Fibonacci ratios between key points, you can estimate potential price movements.
All five-point patterns share a similar structure, differing only in line lengths and Fibonacci ratios. Learning one pattern simplifies understanding others.
🟣 Exploring the Gartley Pattern
The Gartley pattern appears in both bullish (M shape) and bearish (W shape) forms. In the bullish Gartley, point X is below point D, and point A surpasses point C. Point D marks the start of a strong upward trend, making it an optimal point to place a buy order.
The bearish Gartley mirrors the bullish pattern with inverted Fibonacci ratios. In this scenario, point D indicates the start of a significant price drop. Traders can place sell orders at this point and buy at lower prices for profit in two-way markets.
🟣 Analyzing the Butterfly Pattern
The Butterfly pattern also manifests in bullish (M shape) and bearish (W shape) forms. It resembles the Gartley pattern but with point D lower than point X in the bullish version.
The Butterfly pattern involves deeper price corrections than the Gartley, leading to more significant price fluctuations. Point D in the bullish Butterfly indicates the beginning of a sharp price rise, making it an entry point for buy orders.
The bearish Butterfly has inverted Fibonacci ratios, with point D marking the start of a sharp price decline, ideal for sell orders followed by buying at lower prices in two-way markets.
🟣 Insights into the Bat Pattern
The Bat pattern, appearing in bullish (M shape) and bearish (W shape) forms, is one of the most precise harmonic patterns. It closely resembles the Butterfly and Gartley patterns, differing mainly in Fibonacci levels.
The bearish Bat pattern shares the Fibonacci ratios with the bullish Bat, with an inverted structure. Point D in the bearish Bat marks the start of a significant price drop, suitable for sell orders followed by buying at lower prices for profit.
🟣 The Crab Pattern Explained
The Crab pattern, found in both bullish (M shape) and bearish (W shape) forms, is highly favored by analysts. Discovered in 2000, the Crab pattern features a larger final wave correction compared to other harmonic patterns.
The bearish Crab shares Fibonacci ratios with the bullish version but in an inverted form. Point D in the bearish Crab signifies the start of a sharp price decline, making it an ideal point for sell orders followed by buying at lower prices for profitable trades.
🟣 Understanding the Shark Pattern
The Shark pattern appears in bullish (M shape) and bearish (W shape) forms. It differs from previous patterns as point C in the bullish Shark surpasses point A, with unique level measurements.
The bearish Shark pattern mirrors the Fibonacci ratios of the bullish Shark but is inverted. Point D in the bearish Shark indicates the start of a sharp price drop, ideal for placing sell orders and buying at lower prices to capitalize on the pattern.
🟣 The Cypher Pattern Overview
The Cypher pattern is another that appears in both bullish (M shape) and bearish (W shape) forms. It resembles the Shark pattern, with point C in the bullish Cypher extending beyond point A, and point D forming within the XA line.
The bearish Cypher shares the Fibonacci ratios with the bullish Cypher but in an inverted structure. Point D in the bearish Cypher marks the start of a significant price drop, perfect for sell orders followed by buying at lower prices.
🟣 Introducing the Nen-Star Pattern
The Nen-Star pattern appears in both bullish (M shape) and bearish (W shape) forms. In the bullish Nen-Star, point C extends beyond point A, and point D, the final point, forms outside the XA line, making CD the longest wave.
The bearish Nen-Star has inverted Fibonacci ratios, with point D indicating the start of a significant price drop. Traders can place sell orders at point D and buy at lower prices to profit from this pattern in two-way markets.
The 5-point harmonic patterns, commonly referred to as XABCD patterns, are specific geometric price structures identified in financial markets. These patterns are used by traders to predict potential price movements based on historical price data and Fibonacci retracement levels.
Here are the main 5-point harmonic patterns :
Gartley Pattern
Anti-Gartley Pattern
Bat Pattern
Anti-Bat Pattern
Alternate Bat Pattern
Butterfly Pattern
Anti-Butterfly Pattern
Crab Pattern
Anti-Crab Pattern
Deep Crab Pattern
Shark Pattern
Anti- Shark Pattern
Anti Alternate Shark Pattern
Cypher Pattern
Anti-Cypher Pattern
🔵 How to Use
To add "Order Block Refiner Library", you must first add the following code to your script.
import TFlab/Harmonic_Chart_Pattern_Library_TradingFinder/1 as HP
🟣 Parameters
XABCD(Name, Type, Show, Color, LineWidth, LabelSize, ShVF, FLPC, FLPCPeriod, Pivot, ABXAmin, ABXAmax, BCABmin, BCABmax, CDBCmin, CDBCmax, CDXAmin, CDXAmax) =>
Parameters:
Name (string)
Type (string)
Show (bool)
Color (color)
LineWidth (int)
LabelSize (string)
ShVF (bool)
FLPC (bool)
FLPCPeriod (int)
Pivot (int)
ABXAmin (float)
ABXAmax (float)
BCABmin (float)
BCABmax (float)
CDBCmin (float)
CDBCmax (float)
CDXAmin (float)
CDXAmax (float)
🟣 Genaral Parameters
Name : The name of the pattern.
Type: Enter "Bullish" to draw a Bullish pattern and "Bearish" to draw an Bearish pattern.
Show : Enter "true" to display the template and "false" to not display the template.
Color : Enter the desired color to draw the pattern in this parameter.
LineWidth : You can enter the number 1 or numbers higher than one to adjust the thickness of the drawing lines. This number must be an integer and increases with increasing thickness.
LabelSize : You can adjust the size of the labels by using the "size.auto", "size.tiny", "size.smal", "size.normal", "size.large" or "size.huge" entries.
🟣 Logical Parameters
ShVF : If this parameter is on "true" mode, only patterns will be displayed that they have exact format and no noise can be seen in them. If "false" is, the patterns displayed that maybe are noisy and do not exactly correspond to the original pattern.
FLPC : if Turned on, you can see this ability of patterns when their last pivot is formed. If this feature is off, it will see the patterns as soon as they are formed. The advantage of this option being clear is less formation of fielded patterns, and it is accompanied by the lateest pattern seeing and a sharp reduction in reward to risk.
FLPCPeriod : Using this parameter you can determine that the last pivot is based on Pivot period.
Pivot : You need to determine the period of the zigzag indicator. This factor is the most important parameter in pattern recognition.
ABXAmin : Minimum retracement of "AB" line compared to "XA" line.
ABXAmax : Maximum retracement of "AB" line compared to "XA" line.
BCABmin : Minimum retracement of "BC" line compared to "AB" line.
BCABmax : Maximum retracement of "BC" line compared to "AB" line.
CDBCmin : Minimum retracement of "CD" line compared to "BC" line.
CDBCmax : Maximum retracement of "CD" line compared to "BC" line.
CDXAmin : Minimum retracement of "CD" line compared to "XA" line.
CDXAmax : Maximum retracement of "CD" line compared to "XA" line.
🟣 Function Outputs
This library has two outputs. The first output is related to the alert of the formation of a new pattern. And the second output is related to the formation of the candlestick pattern and you can draw it using the "plotshape" tool.
Candle Confirmation Logic :
Example :
import TFlab/Harmonic_Chart_Pattern_Library_TradingFinder/1 as HP
PP = input.int(3, 'ZigZag Pivot Period')
ShowBull = input.bool(true, 'Show Bullish Pattern')
ShowBear = input.bool(true, 'Show Bearish Pattern')
ColorBull = input.color(#0609bb, 'Color Bullish Pattern')
ColorBear = input.color(#0609bb, 'Color Bearish Pattern')
LineWidth = input.int(1 , 'Width Line')
LabelSize = input.string(size.small , 'Label size' , options = )
ShVF = input.bool(false , 'Show Valid Format')
FLPC = input.bool(false , 'Show Formation Last Pivot Confirm')
FLPCPeriod =input.int(2, 'Period of Formation Last Pivot')
//Call function
= HP.XABCD('Bullish Bat', 'Bullish', ShowBull, ColorBull , LineWidth, LabelSize ,ShVF, FLPC, FLPCPeriod, PP, 0.382, 0.50, 0.382, 0.886, 1.618, 2.618, 0.85, 0.9)
= HP.XABCD('Bearish Bat', 'Bearish', ShowBear, ColorBear , LineWidth, LabelSize ,ShVF, FLPC, FLPCPeriod, PP, 0.382, 0.50, 0.382, 0.886, 1.618, 2.618, 0.85, 0.9)
//Alert
if BearAlert
alert('Bearish Harmonic')
if BullAlert
alert('Bulish Harmonic')
//CandleStick Confirm
plotshape(BearCandleConfirm, style = shape.arrowdown, color = color.red)
plotshape(BullCandleConfirm, style = shape.arrowup, color = color.green, location = location.belowbar )
Trend Forecasting - The Quant Science🌏 Trend Forecasting | ENG 🌏
This plug-in acts as a statistical filter, adding new information to your chart that will allow you to quickly verify the direction of a trend and the probability with which the price will be above or below the average in the future, helping you to uncover probable market inefficiencies.
🧠 Model calculation
The model calculates the arithmetic mean in relation to positive and negative events within the available sample for the selected time series. Where a positive event is defined as a closing price greater than the average, and a negative event as a closing price less than the average. Once all events have been calculated, the probabilities are extrapolated by relating each event.
Example
Positive event A: 70
Negative event B: 30
Total events: 100
Probabilities A: (100 / 70) x 100 = 70%
Probabilities B: (100 / 30) x 100 = 30%
Event A has a 70% probability of occurring compared to Event B which has a 30% probability.
🔍 Information Filter
The data on the graph show the future probabilities of prices being above average (default in green) and the probabilities of prices being below average (default in red).
The information that can be quickly retrieved from this indicator is:
1. Trend: Above-average prices together with a constant of data in green greater than 50% + 1 indicate that the observed historical series shows a bullish trend. The probability is correlated proportionally to the value of the data; the higher and increasing the expected value, the greater the observed bullish trend. On the other hand, a below-average price together with a red-coloured data constant show quantitative data regarding the presence of a bearish trend.
2. Future Probability: By analysing the data, it is possible to find the probability with which the price will be above or below the average in the future. In green are classified the probabilities that the price will be higher than the average, in red are classified the probabilities that the price will be lower than the average.
🔫 Operational Filter .
The indicator can be used operationally in the search for investment or trading opportunities given its ability to identify an inefficiency within the observed data sample.
⬆ Bullish forecast
For bullish trades, the inefficiency will appear as a historical series with a bullish trend, with high probability of a bullish trend in the future that is currently below the average.
⬇ Bearish forecast
For short trades, the inefficiency will appear as a historical series with a bearish trend, with a high probability of a bearish trend in the future that is currently above the average.
📚 Settings
Input: via the Input user interface, it is possible to adjust the periods (1 to 500) with which the average is to be calculated. By default the periods are set to 200, which means that the average is calculated by taking the last 200 periods.
Style: via the Style user interface it is possible to adjust the colour and switch a specific output on or off.
🇮🇹Previsione Della Tendenza Futura | ITA 🇮🇹
Questo plug-in funge da filtro statistico, aggiungendo nuove informazioni al tuo grafico che ti permetteranno di verificare rapidamente tendenza di un trend, probabilità con la quale il prezzo si troverà sopra o sotto la media in futuro aiutandoti a scovare probabili inefficienze di mercato.
🧠 Calcolo del modello
Il modello calcola la media aritmetica in relazione con gli eventi positivi e negativi all'intero del campione disponibile per la serie storica selezionata. Dove per evento positivo si intende un prezzo alla chiusura maggiore della media, mentre per evento negativo si intende un prezzo alla chiusura minore della media. Calcolata la totalità degli eventi le probabilità vengono estrapolate rapportando ciascun evento.
Esempio
Evento positivo A: 70
Evento negativo B: 30
Totale eventi : 100
Formula A: (100 / 70) x 100 = 70%
Formula B: (100 / 30) x 100 = 30%
Evento A ha una probabilità del 70% di realizzarsi rispetto all' Evento B che ha una probabilità pari al 30%.
🔍 Filtro informativo
I dati sul grafico mostrano le probabilità future che i prezzi siano sopra la media (di default in verde) e le probabilità che i prezzi siano sotto la media (di default in rosso).
Le informazioni che si possono rapidamente reperire da questo indicatore sono:
1. Trend: I prezzi sopra la media insieme ad una costante di dati in verde maggiori al 50% + 1 indicano che la serie storica osservata presenta un trend rialzista. La probabilità è correlata proporzionalmente al valore del dato; tanto più sarà alto e crescente il valore atteso e maggiore sarà la tendenza rialzista osservata. Viceversa, un prezzo sotto la media insieme ad una costante di dati classificati in colore rosso mostrano dati quantitativi riguardo la presenza di una tendenza ribassista.
2. Probabilità future: analizzando i dati è possibile reperire la probabilità con cui il prezzo si troverà sopra o sotto la media in futuro. In verde vengono classificate le probabilità che il prezzo sarà maggiore alla media, in rosso vengono classificate le probabilità che il prezzo sarà minore della media.
🔫 Filtro operativo
L' indicatore può essere utilizzato a livello operativo nella ricerca di opportunità di investimento o di trading vista la capacità di identificare un inefficienza all'interno del campione di dati osservato.
⬆ Previsione rialzista
Per operatività di tipo rialzista l'inefficienza apparirà come una serie storica a tendenza rialzista, con alte probabilità di tendenza rialzista in futuro che attualmente si trova al di sotto della media.
⬇ Previsione ribassista
Per operatività di tipo short l'inefficienza apparirà come una serie storica a tendenza ribassista, con alte probabilità di tendenza ribassista in futuro che si trova attualmente sopra la media.
📚 Impostazioni
Input: tramite l'interfaccia utente Input è possibile regolare i periodi (da 1 a 500) con cui calcolare la media. Di default i periodi sono impostati sul valore di 200, questo significa che la media viene calcolata prendendo gli ultimi 200 periodi.
Style: tramite l'interfaccia utente Style è possibile regolare il colore e attivare o disattivare un specifico output.
($ROSE Trader) Mean MultipleThe ROSE Trader Mean Multiple is an adaptation of The Mayer Multiple, using the 99-Day Simple Moving Average rather than the 200-Day (adjusted for ROSE's higher delta), setting distinct preset levels for ROSE overbought and oversold conditions.
Who is this indicator for?
While this indicator will function on any chart, it is setup for trading Oasis BINANCE:ROSEUSDT token specifically — the presets used are tailored to the ROSE chart.
While it is an open source public script, it has been released primarily for the ROSE community
What does this indicator offer?
This indicator follows the same concepts as the Mayer Multiple, popular with BTC. What makes it unique is that it the presets are setup specifically for the BINANCE:ROSEUSDT , based upon my trading experience.
About the Mayer Multiple:
The Mayer Multiple is a derivative of the 200-day MA, calculated by dividing the BTC market price by the 200-day MA. The 200-day MA is a widely recognised indicator for BTC in establishing macro bull or bear bias. The Mayer Multiple therefore represents a measure of distance away from this long-term average or mean price as a tool to gauge overbought and oversold conditions.
For BTC overbought, and oversold conditions, have historically coincided with Mayer Multiple values of 2.4, and 0.8 respectively.
Adapting this concept to the ROSE token:
The adaption of the Mayer Multiple offered here adjusts the 200-day MA to suit the higher delta or volatility of the BINANCE:ROSEUSDT token specifically. For ROSE I use the 99-day MA to establish macro bull or bear bias. The derived 'Mean Multiple', based on the 99-day MA therefore represents a measure of distance away from this long-term average or mean price as a tool to gauge overbought and oversold conditions.
For ROSE overbought, and oversold conditions, tend to coincide with values of 1.618, and 0.618 respectively. Further offsets have been preprogrammed to add nuance to the way this indicator may be used in different market conditions
Calculations:
Mean Multiple is calculated by dividing the market price by the 99-Day Simple Moving Average (99D SMA). The indicator allows you to adjust the period if desired.
The indicator horizontals are set at regular offsets from Mean multiple (MM), these are calculated by multiplying the SMA from which the MM is derived by a set number to arrive at each offset, based upon historic price data.
The indicator horizontals may work as oversold and over bought levels, as they show the distance the price has moved from the mean, and how the Mean Multiple (as a derivation of price) has behaved at these levels historically
This script is partnered with the "ROSE Trade Mean Multiple Oscillator" which shows this data plotted on the price chart (This Oscillator is pictured in the chart but must be added separately, it can be found in my other public scripts)
Note: this script is setup to work with any instrument, but the presets are built to provide actionable data on the Oasis BINANCE:ROSEUSDT token specifically. It is not a predicative model, it rather shows how price has behaved historically / statistically at these levels given past data.
RSI Sector analysis
Screening tool that produces a table with the various sectors and their RSI values. The values are shown in 3 rows, each with a user-defined length, and can be averaged out and displayed as a single value. The chart is color coded as well. Each ETF representing a sector can be looked at individually, with the top holdings in each preprogrammed, but users can define their own if they wish. The left most ticker is the "benchmark"; SPY is the benchmark for the various sectors, and the ETF is the benchmark for the tickers within.
Symbols are color coded: light blue text indicates that a symbol has greater RSI values in all three timeframes than the benchmark (the leftmost symbol). Orange text indicates that a symbol has a lower RSI value for all three timeframes. In the first row, light blue text indicates the largest RSI increase from the third row to the first row. Orange text indicates the largest RSI decrease from the third row to the first row.
A blue highlight indicates that the value is the highest among the tickers, excluding the benchmark, and an orange highlight indicates that the value is the lowest among the tickers, also excluding the benchmark. A blue highlight on the ticker indicates that it has the highest average value of the 3 rows, and a orange highlight on the ticker indicates that it has the lowest average value of the 3 rows.
Moving average to price cloudHi all!
This indicator shows when the price crosses the defined moving average. It plots a green or red cloud (depending on trend) and the moving average. It also plots an arrow when the trend changes (this can be disabled in 'style'->'labels' in the settings).
The moving average itself can be used as dynamic support/resistance. The trend will change based on your settings (described below). By default the trend will change when the whole bar is above/below the moving average for 2 bars (that's closed). This can be changed by "Source" and "Bars".
Settings
• Length (choose the length of the moving average. Defaults to 21)
• Type (choose what type of moving average).
- "SMA" (Simple Moving Average)
- "EMA" (Exponential Moving Average)
- "HMA" (Hull Moving Average)
- "WMA" (Weighted Moving Average)
- "VWMA" (Volume Weighted Moving Average)
- "DEMA" (Double Exponential Moving Average)
Defaults to"EMA".
• Source (Define the price source that must be above/below the moving average for the trend to change. Defaults to 'High/low (passive)')
- 'Open' The open of the bar has to cross the moving average
- 'Close' The close of the bar has to cross the moving average
- 'High/low (passive)' In a down trend: the low of the bar has to cross the moving average
- 'High/low (aggressive)' In a down trend: the high of the bar has to cross the moving average
• Source bar must be close. Defaults to 'true'.
• Bars (Define the number bars whose value (defined in 'Source') must be above/below the moving average. All the bars (defined by this number) must be above/below the moving average for the trend to change. Defaults to 2.)
Let me know if you have any questions.
Best of trading luck!
Unlocking the Power of Long Candle MidpointI'm excited to share with you a fascinating concept that can help you identify potential breakout points in the market.
The Pine Script code provided below is designed to identify the midpoint of a long candle, which can be a crucial level for traders to watch.
In this blog post, we'll dive deeper into the concept, explore its applications, and analyze a real-life example of TATACHEM listed on NSE, which is currently trading around a potential psychology line.
What is the Long Candle Midpoint?
The long candle midpoint is a technical indicator that calculates the midpoint of a candlestick that has a significant price movement. This midpoint is then used to draw a horizontal line, which can serve as a potential support or resistance level. The idea is that if a candlestick has a large price movement, it's likely that the market will react to this movement by testing the midpoint of the candle.
How Does the Long Candle Midpoint Indicator Work?
The Pine Script code provided above is designed to calculate the midpoint of a long candle based on the following parameters:
Length: The length of the candlestick is calculated using the len input parameter.
Line Length: The length of the line is calculated using the linExt input parameter.
Calculation Method: The calculation method can be set to either "Highest True Range", "Average True Range", or "Both".
Multiplier: The multiplier is used to adjust the midpoint calculation based on the average range of the candlestick.
The script then plots a horizontal line at the midpoint of the long candle, which can be used as a potential support or resistance level.
Real-Life Example:
Let's take a look at TATACHEM, a stock listed on the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). As you can see in the chart below,
TATACHEM has been trading around a potential psychology line drawn from the midpoint of a large candle.
As you can see, the stock has previously failed to break above this line, but it's currently trading around it. This could be a sign that the market is preparing for a potential breakout. If the stock can break above this line, it could lead to a bullish rally.
Conclusion
The long candle midpoint indicator is a powerful tool that can help traders identify potential breakout points in the market. By analyzing the midpoint of a long candle, traders can gain insights into the market's sentiment and potential areas of support or resistance.
In the case of TATACHEM, the stock is currently trading around a potential psychology line, which could be a sign of a potential breakout. Traders can consider this point in their watch list for a potential entry. Tips for Traders
Use the long candle midpoint indicator in conjunction with other technical indicators to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the market.
Look for confirmation from other indicators before entering a trade.
Set stop-loss and take-profit levels based on the potential breakout point.
Monitor the market closely and be prepared to adjust your strategy if the market doesn't behave as expected.
By incorporating the long candle midpoint indicator into your trading strategy, you can gain an edge in the market and make more informed trading decisions.
Notional Trade Table
Notional Trade Table indicator displays notional trade values for given Buy and Sell of given input of Symbol, Quantity, Entry Price and Stop Loss .
Sections of Input Menu Table are supported with Tool Tip icons.
Input Symbols:
(Refer Input Menu)
User can choose maximum 20 Symbols.
Input Side Choice (BUY/SELL):
(Refer Input Menu)
After choosing Symbol, User has to choose the BUY or SELL option for each Symbol against the corresponding Sybol number. If NIL is selected “Nil is selected ” message is displayed prompting the user to select BUY or SELL sides.
For example in the above Input Menu:
Sym1 is BATS:AAPL. Corresponding Side 1 is Sell1.
Sym2 is BATS:NVDA Corresponding Side 2 Sell 2.
Sym12 is BATS:NFLX. Corresponding Side 12 is Buy12 and so on.
Input Quantity:
(Refer Input Menu)
Next enter Corresponding Quantity of BUY or SELL in relevant Quantity Input Box. Quantity cannot be Zero. Defval is 1.
For Sym1 input in Qty 1 box,for Sym2 input in Qty 2 box and so on.
Input Entry Price:
(Refer Input Menu)
After entering Quantity Input Entry Price for Corresponding Symbol.
Input for Sym1 Entry Price in EP1 box
Input for Sym2 Entry Price in EP2 box
and so on.
Input Stop Loss:
(Refer Input Menu)
Next Enter corresponding Stop Loss for each Symbol.
SL1 input box denotes Sym1 Stop Loss.
SL2 input box denotes Sym2 Stop Loss.
SL3 input box denotes Sym3 Stop Loss and so on.
Stop Loss for Chosen BUY side should be below corresponding Entry Price/Last Price. Otherwise a message is displayed “SL Hit”. User has to enter valid data.
Stop Loss for Chosen SELL side should be above corresponding Entry Price/Last Price. Otherwise a message is displayed “SL Hit”. User has to enter valid data.
Notional Trade Table:
(Refer the Table on Chart)
From the input menu filled by User script captures the Symbol, BUY/SELL options, Quantity,
Entry Price and Stop Loss details under the corresponding heads in the Notional Trade Table.
The script captures the live Last traded Price under the head LP and calculates and displays corresponding Profit or Loss under PR/LO column in the table.
SL+- LP is the difference between Last traded Price (LP) and Stop Loss Price. Positive figure under this head reflects Stop Loss cushion available .
Nil header column reflects message “NIL selected” prompting the User to select BUY or SELL sides.
SLH header displays “SL Hit” on Stop Loss Hit or wrong input of Stop Loss inconsistent with BUY or SELL sides of Trade. On “SL Hit” message all values in corresponding Symbol becomes Zero. User has to re-enter the details fresh .
On the top left side corner of the table there are 2 cells with Prono and Lono.They denote the number of trades which are in Profit (Prono) and which are in Loss(Lono).
It is preferable to choose Symbols from a single country exchange commensurate with the Time zone. Otherwise if Exchange and Chart time Zone differs there is risk of data loss in the table.
DISCLAIMER: For educational and entertainment purpose only .Nothing in this content should be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security/ies or investment/s.
Dickey-Fuller Test for Mean Reversion and Stationarity **IF YOU NEED EXTRA SPECIAL HELP UNDERSTANDING THIS INDICATOR, GO TO THE BOTTOM OF THE DESCRIPTION FOR AN EVEN SIMPLER DESCRIPTION**
Dickey Fuller Test:
The Dickey-Fuller test is a statistical test used to determine whether a time series is stationary or has a unit root (a characteristic of a time series that makes it non-stationary), indicating that it is non-stationary. Stationarity means that the statistical properties of a time series, such as mean and variance, are constant over time. The test checks to see if the time series is mean-reverting or not. Many traders falsely assume that raw stock prices are mean-reverting when they are not, as evidenced by many different types of statistical models that show how stock prices are almost always positively autocorrelated or statistical tests like this one, which show that stock prices are not stationary.
Note: This indicator uses past results, and the results will always be changing as new data comes in. Just because it's stationary during a rare occurrence doesn't mean it will always be stationary. Especially in price, where this would be a rare occurrence on this test. (The Test Statistic is below the critical value.)
The indicator also shows the option to either choose Raw Price, Simple Returns, or Log Returns for the test.
Raw Prices:
Stock prices are usually non-stationary because they follow some type of random walk, exhibiting positive autocorrelation and trends in the long term.
The Dickey-Fuller test on raw prices will indicate non-stationary most of the time since prices are expected to have a unit root. (If the test statistic is higher than the critical value, it suggests the presence of a unit root, confirming non-stationarity.)
Simple Returns and Log Returns:
Simple and log returns are more stationary than prices, if not completely stationary, because they measure relative changes rather than absolute levels.
This test on simple and log returns may indicate stationary behavior, especially over longer periods. (The test statistic being below the critical value suggests the absence of a unit root, indicating stationarity.)
Null Hypothesis (H0): The time series has a unit root (it is non-stationary).
Alternative Hypothesis (H1): The time series does not have a unit root (it is stationary)
Interpretation: If the test statistic is less than the critical value, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the time series is stationary.
Types of Dickey-Fuller Tests:
1. (What this indicator uses) Standard Dickey-Fuller Test:
Tests the null hypothesis that a unit root is present in a simple autoregressive model.
This test is used for simple cases where we just want to check if the series has a consistent statistical property over time without considering any trends or additional complexities.
It examines the relationship between the current value of the series and its previous value to see if the series tends to drift over time or revert to the mean.
2. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test:
Tests for a unit root while accounting for more complex structures like trends and higher-order correlations in the data.
This test is more robust and is used when the time series has trends or other patterns that need to be considered.
It extends the regular test by including additional terms to account for the complexities, and this test may be more reliable than the regular Dickey-Fuller Test.
For things like stock prices, the ADF would be more appropriate because stock prices are almost always trending and positively autocorrelated, while the Dickey-Fuller Test is more appropriate for more simple time series.
Critical Values
This indicator uses the following critical values that are essential for interpreting the Dickey-Fuller test results. The critical values depend on the chosen significance levels:
1% Significance Level: Critical value of -3.43.
5% Significance Level: Critical value of -2.86.
10% Significance Level: Critical value of -2.57.
These critical values are thresholds that help determine whether to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root (non-stationarity). If the test statistic is less than (or more negative than) the critical value, it indicates that the time series is stationary. Conversely, if the test statistic is greater than the critical value, the series is considered non-stationary.
This indicator uses a dotted blue line by default to show the critical value. If the test-static, which is the gray column, goes below the critical value, then the test-static will become yellow, and the test will indicate that the time series is stationary or mean reverting for the current period of time.
What does this mean?
This is the weekly chart of BTCUSD with the Dickey-Fuller Test, with a length of 100 and a critical value of 1%.
So basically, in the long term, mean-reversion strategies that involve raw prices are not a good idea. You don't really need a statistical test either for this; just from seeing the chart itself, you can see that prices in the long term are trending and no mean reversion is present.
For the people who can't understand that the gray column being above the blue dotted line means price doesn't mean revert, here is a more simple description (you know you are):
Average (I have to include the meaning because they may not know what average is): The middle number is when you add up all the numbers and then divide by how many numbers there are. EX: If you have the numbers 2, 4, and 6, you add them up to get 12, and then divide by 3 (because there are 3 numbers), so the average is 4. It tells you what a typical number is in a group of numbers.
This indicator checks if a time series (like stock prices) tends to return to its average value or time.
Raw prices, which is just the regular price chart, are usually not mean-reverting (It's "always" positively autocorrelating but this group of people doesn't like that word). Price follows trends.
Simple returns and log returns are more likely to have periods of mean reversion.
How to use it:
Gray Column (the gray bars) Above the Blue Dotted Line: The price does not mean revert (non-stationary).
Gray Column Below Blue Line: The time series mean reverts (stationary)
So, if the test statistic (gray column) is below the critical value, which is the blue dotted line, then the series is stationary and mean reverting, but if it is above the blue dotted line, then the time series is not stationary or mean reverting, and strategies involving mean reversion will most likely result in a loss given enough occurrences.
