Liquidity Maxing [JOAT]Liquidity Maxing - Institutional Liquidity Matrix
Introduction
Liquidity Maxing is an open-source strategy for TradingView built around institutional market structure concepts. It identifies structural shifts, evaluates trades through multi-factor confluence, and implements layered risk controls.
The strategy is designed for swing trading on 4-hour timeframes, focusing on how institutional order flow manifests in price action through structure breaks, inducements, and liquidity sweeps.
Core Functionality
Liquidity Maxing performs three primary functions:
Tracks market structure to identify when control shifts between buyers and sellers
Scores potential trades using an eight-factor confluence system
Manages position sizing and risk exposure dynamically based on volatility and user-defined limits
The goal is selective trading when multiple conditions align, rather than frequent entries.
Market Structure Engine
The structure engine tracks three key events:
Break of Structure (BOS): Price pushes beyond a prior pivot in the direction of trend
Change of Character (CHoCH): Control flips from bullish to bearish or vice versa
Inducement Sweeps (IDM): Market briefly runs stops against trend before moving in the real direction
The structure module continuously updates strong highs and lows, labeling structural shifts visually. IDM markers are optional and disabled by default to maintain chart clarity.
The trade engine requires valid structure alignment before considering entries. No structure, no trade.
Eight-Factor Confluence System
Instead of relying on a single indicator, Liquidity Maxing uses an eight-factor scoring system:
Structure alignment with current trend
RSI within healthy bands (different ranges for up and down trends)
MACD momentum agreement with direction
Volume above adaptive baseline
Price relative to main trend EMA
Session and weekend filter (configurable)
Volatility expansion/contraction via ATR shifts
Higher-timeframe EMA confirmation
Each factor contributes one point to the confluence score. The default minimum confluence threshold is 6 out of 8, but you can adjust this from 1-8 based on your preference for trade frequency versus selectivity.
Only when structure and confluence agree does the strategy proceed to risk evaluation.
Dynamic Risk Management
Risk controls are implemented in multiple layers:
ATR-based stops and targets with configurable risk-to-reward ratio (default 2:1)
Volatility-adjusted position sizing to maintain consistent risk per trade as ranges expand or compress
Daily and weekly risk budgets that halt new entries once thresholds are reached
Correlation cooldown to prevent clustered trades in the same direction
Global circuit breaker with maximum drawdown limit and emergency kill switch
If any guardrail is breached, the strategy will not open new positions. The dashboard clearly displays risk state for transparency.
Market Presets
The strategy includes configuration presets optimized for different market types:
Crypto (BTC/ETH): RSI bands 70/30, volume multiplier 1.2, enhanced ATR scaling
Forex Majors: RSI bands 75/25, volume multiplier 1.5
Indices (SPY/QQQ): RSI bands 70/30, volume multiplier 1.3
Custom: Default values for user customization
For crypto assets, the strategy automatically applies ATR volatility scaling to account for higher volatility characteristics.
Monitoring and Dashboards
The strategy includes optional monitoring layers:
Risk Operations Dashboard (top-right):
Trend state
Confluence score
ATR value
Current position size percentage
Global drawdown
Daily and weekly risk consumption
Correlation guard state
Alert mode status
Performance Console (top-left):
Net profit
Current equity
Win rate percentage
Average trade value
Sharpe-style ratio (rolling 50-bar window)
Profit factor
Open trade count
Optional risk tint on chart background provides visual indication of "safe to trade" versus "halted" state.
All visualization elements can be toggled on/off from the inputs for clean chart viewing or full telemetry during parameter tuning.
Alerts and Automation
The strategy supports alert integration with two formats:
Standard alerts: Human-readable messages for long, short, and risk-halt conditions
Webhook format: JSON-formatted payloads ready for external execution systems (optional)
Alert messages are predictable and unambiguous, suitable for manual review or automated forwarding to execution engines.
Built-in Validation Suite
The strategy includes an optional validation layer that can be enabled from inputs. It checks:
Internal consistency of structure and confluence metrics
Sanity and ordering of risk parameters
Position sizing compliance with user-defined floors and caps
This validation is optional and not required for trading, but provides transparency into system operation during development or troubleshooting.
Strategy Parameters
Market Presets:
Configuration Preset: Choose between Crypto (BTC/ETH), Forex Majors, Indices (SPY/QQQ), or Custom
Market Structure Architecture:
Pivot Length: Default 5 bars
Filter by Inducement (IDM): Default enabled
Visualize Structure: Default enabled
Structure Lookback: Default 50 bars
Risk & Capital Preservation:
Risk:Reward Ratio: Default 2.0
ATR Period: Default 14
ATR Multiplier (Stop): Default 2.0
Max Drawdown Circuit Breaker: Default 10%
Risk per Trade (% Equity): Default 1.5%
Daily Risk Limit: Default 6%
Weekly Risk Limit: Default 12%
Min Position Size (% Equity): Default 0.25%
Max Position Size (% Equity): Default 5%
Correlation Cooldown (bars): Default 3
Emergency Kill Switch: Default disabled
Signal Confluence:
RSI Length: Default 14
Trend EMA: Default 200
HTF Confirmation TF: Default Daily
Allow Weekend Trading: Default enabled
Minimum Confluence Score (0-8): Default 6
Backtesting Considerations
When backtesting this strategy, consider the following:
Commission: Default 0.05% (adjustable in strategy settings)
Initial Capital: Default $100,000 (adjustable)
Position Sizing: Uses percentage of equity (default 2% per trade)
Timeframe: Optimized for 4-hour charts, though can be tested on other timeframes
Results will vary significantly based on:
Market conditions and volatility regimes
Parameter settings, especially confluence threshold
Risk limit configuration
Symbol characteristics (crypto vs forex vs equities)
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Win rate, profit factor, and other metrics should be evaluated in context of drawdown periods, trade frequency, and market conditions.
How to Use This Strategy
This is a framework that requires understanding and parameter tuning, not a one-size-fits-all solution.
Recommended workflow:
Start on 4-hour timeframe with default parameters and appropriate market preset
Run backtests and study performance console metrics: focus on drawdown behavior, win rate, profit factor, and trade frequency
Adjust confluence threshold to match your risk appetite—higher thresholds mean fewer but more selective trades
Set realistic daily and weekly risk budgets appropriate for your account size and risk tolerance
Consider ATR multiplier adjustments based on market volatility characteristics
Only connect alerts or automation after thorough testing and parameter validation
Treat this as a risk framework with an integrated entry engine, not merely an entry signal generator. The risk controls are as important as the trade signals.
Strategy Limitations
Designed for swing trading timeframes; may not perform optimally on very short timeframes
Requires sufficient market structure to identify pivots; may struggle in choppy or low-volatility environments
Crypto markets require different parameter tuning than traditional markets
Risk limits may prevent entries during favorable setups if daily/weekly budgets are exhausted
Correlation cooldown may delay entries that would otherwise be valid
Backtesting results depend on data quality and may not reflect live trading with slippage
Design Philosophy
Many indicators tell you when price crossed a moving average or RSI left oversold. This strategy addresses questions institutional traders ask:
Who is in control of the market right now?
Is this move structurally significant or just noise?
Do I want to add more risk given what I've already done today/week?
If I'm wrong, exactly how painful can this be?
The strategy provides disciplined, repeatable answers to these questions through systematic structure analysis, confluence filtering, and multi-layer risk management.
Technical Implementation
The strategy uses Pine Script v6 with:
Custom types for structure, confluence, and risk state management
Functional programming approach for reusable calculations
State management through persistent variables
Optional visual elements that can be toggled independently
The code is open-source and can be modified to suit individual needs. All important logic is visible in the source code.
Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice or recommendation. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, whether real or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.
No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between backtested results and actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy.
The user should be aware of the risks involved in trading and should trade only with risk capital. The authors and publishers of this script are not responsible for any losses or damages, including without limitation, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on this script.
This strategy uses technical analysis methods and indicators that are not guaranteed to be accurate or profitable. Market conditions change, and strategies that worked in the past may not work in the future. Users should thoroughly test any strategy in a paper trading environment before risking real capital.
Commission and slippage settings in backtests may not accurately reflect live trading conditions. Real trading results will vary based on execution quality, market liquidity, and other factors not captured in backtesting.
The user assumes full responsibility for all trading decisions made using this script. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Enjoy - officialjackofalltrades
"daily" için komut dosyalarını ara
Advanced custom multi MA signals (EMA/SMA/VWMA/VWAP) Features of Multi Moving Averages
The biggest enemy in trading is "Noise." If you get swayed by minute fluctuations on the chart, you end up missing the forest for the trees.
This indicator (Advanced Custom Multi MA Signals) is not just a simple line. By combining the three core elements of Price, Time, and Volume, it acts as a navigation system that visualizes the market's "true trend." In particular, the ability to analyze 5 moving averages simultaneously across various timeframes is akin to viewing a 3D map of the battlefield.
Understanding Core Concepts
This indicator supports 4 types of moving averages. It is crucial to clearly understand the nature of each tool.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): The most basic average value. Since it produces fewer whipsaws (false signals), it is used as a baseline to judge the "long-term trend."
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Places more weight on recent prices. It reacts sensitively to market changes, making it advantageous for identifying "entry points."
VWMA (Volume Weighted Moving Average): Incorporates "volume" into the price calculation. It acts as a "false signal filter," weeding out price moves that aren't backed by trading volume.
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): The benchmark price used by institutional investors for daily trading. It is calculated based on the session, regardless of the period settings. It is considered the "lifeline" of day trading.
Indicator Settings Guide
Open the settings window and tune it to fit your trading style.
MA 01 ~ 05 (Moving Average Settings)
MA Type: Select according to your purpose. (Generally, EMA is recommended for short-term analysis, SMA/VWMA for long-term).
Length: Enter the period you wish to analyze (e.g., 20, 60, 120, 200).
Timeframe: This is the core feature. It allows you to overlay moving averages from a higher timeframe (e.g., 4-hour, Daily) onto the chart you are currently viewing (e.g., 15-minute).
Signal Option (Trading Signals)
Golden Cross (GC) / Death Cross (DC): Captures the moment the short-term line breaks through the long-term line. You can run up to 3 strategies simultaneously.
Ribbon Gradient (Trend Visualization)
Represents the gap between two moving averages with color. As the color deepens and the width expands, it indicates a powerful trend; if the width narrows, it suggests a high probability of a trend reversal.
5 Usage Strategies
The highlight of this indicator is the cross strategy utilizing the "Multi-Timeframe (MTF)" feature. Familiarize yourself with the 5 example strategies below and set up your own strategy based on your expertise.
💡 Tip 1. Do not go against the "Major Trend" (The Authority of the Weekly Candle)
Settings: Set MA5 to .
Interpretation: The Weekly 50 line is the "major trend line" managed by institutions and market makers. If the current price is above this line, maintain only a "Buy (Long)" bias; if below, maintain only a "Sell (Short)" bias. Adhering to this rule alone can help you avoid massive losses.
💡 Tip 2. Highly Reliable "Swing Signal" (Daily Golden Cross)
Settings: In Signal 1, configure the Short MA to and the Long MA to .
Interpretation: A Golden Cross where the 4-Hour 50 EMA breaks above the Daily 50 EMA often signifies a major "trend reversal" rather than a temporary rebound. This provides an ideal entry signal for office workers or swing traders who need high reliability.
💡 Tip 3. 4-Hour Candle as the Standard for "Precision Entry"
Situation: When the Daily trend is rising (Bullish alignment).
Strategy: While watching the 15-minute or 1-hour chart, set the indicator's Signal 2 to the cross of and .
Interpretation: When the Daily chart is in an uptrend, a Golden Cross occurring on the 4-Hour chart marks "the point where a correction (pullback) ends and the rise resumes." This is the entry point with the best risk-to-reward ratio.
💡 Tip 4. Filtering Out "Fake Signals" (The Secret of Volume)
Strategy: When creating a cross signal, try using VWMA (Volume Weighted) for the Long MA, even if you use EMA for the Short MA.
Reason: A Golden Cross caused simply by a rise in price can be a trap. However, if it breaks through the heavy VWMA line accompanied by volume, it is strong evidence that "genuine liquidity" has entered.
💡 Tip 5. Remember the "Hierarchy" (Higher Timeframe Priority Rule)
Principle: If a Golden Cross (Buy Signal) appears on the 4-Hour chart, but the Daily chart is in a Death Cross (Sell Signal) state, do not enter.
Interpretation: A signal from a lower timeframe cannot overcome the power of a higher timeframe. The professional approach is to trade with significant volume only when signals align (Sync) in the order of Weekly > Daily > 4-Hour. Keep this indicator's dashboard feature on and always check the status of higher timeframes.
Signal Generation Principle (Operating Mechanism)
Signals are generated when the set short-term moving average and long-term moving average cross each other.
📈 1. Golden Cross (BUY = Buy Signal)
Situation: The moment the short-term MA crosses upward from below the long-term MA.
Principle: It implies that recent buying pressure has broken through the resistance level accumulated over a long period.
📉 2. Death Cross (SELL = Sell Signal)
Situation: The moment the short-term MA crosses downward from above the long-term MA.
Principle: It implies that recent selling pressure has collapsed the long-term support line.
※ If the candles are not displaying correctly or are flickering, please set the indicator's 'Visual order' to 'Bring to front' as shown in the image below.
Investment Caution and Disclaimer
Before using this indicator for actual trading, please strictly read the contents below.
① Auxiliary indicators are a "Compass," not a "Book of Prophecy."
This indicator is merely a tool that mathematically calculates and visualizes past price data. A "magic indicator" that predicts future price fluctuations 100% accurately or guarantees profit does not exist. The signals provided are for reference only and must never be the sole basis for entry/exit decisions.
② The responsibility for all investments lies with "Yourself."
Financial investment (Cryptocurrencies, Stocks, Futures, etc.) involves high volatility and is a risky activity that can result in the loss of some or all of the principal. The final responsibility for all trading results (profits and losses) incurred by utilizing this indicator lies entirely with the investor. The distributor and developer accept no legal responsibility for investment results under any circumstances.
③ Past data does not guarantee the future.
Even a Golden Cross that fit perfectly in backtesting or past charts may operate differently in tomorrow's market situation (News, Macroeconomics, Unexpected Variables, etc.). Do not rely solely on technical analysis; you must conduct fundamental analysis and risk management in parallel.
④ Risk management is the top priority.
No matter how promising a signal appears, "all-in trading" (investing all assets in a single trade) is a shortcut to bankruptcy. More important than the indicator itself is adhering to the principles of strict scaling in (split buying) and Stop-Loss.
Nifty Hierarchical Macro GuardOverview
The Nifty Hierarchical Macro Guard is a "Market Compass" indicator specifically designed for Indian equity traders. It locks its logic to the Nifty 50 Index (NSE:NIFTY) and applies a strict hierarchy of trend analysis. The goal is simple: prioritize the long-term trend (Monthly/Weekly) to decide if you should even be in the market, then use the short-term trend (Daily) for precise exit timing.
This script ensures you never ignore a macro "crash" signal while trying to trade minor daily fluctuations.
The Color Hierarchy (Priority Logic)
The indicator uses a "Top-Down" filter. Higher timeframe signals override lower timeframe signals:
Level 1: Monthly (Ultra-Macro) — Deep Maroon
Condition: Nifty 10 EMA is below the 20 EMA on the Monthly chart.
Action: This is the highest priority. The background will turn Deep Maroon, overriding all other colors. This is your "Forget Trading" signal. The long-term structural trend is broken.
Level 2: Weekly (Macro Warning) — Dark Red
Condition: Monthly is Bullish, but Nifty 10 EMA is below the 20 EMA on the Weekly chart.
Action: The background turns Dark Red. This indicates a significant macro correction. You should stay out of fresh positions and protect capital.
Level 3: Daily (Tactical) — Light Red / Light Green
Condition: Both Monthly and Weekly are Bullish (Green).
Action: The background will now react to the Daily 10/20 EMA cross.
Light Green: Nifty is healthy; safe for fresh positions.
Light Red: Tactical exit signal. Nifty is seeing short-term weakness; exit positions quickly.
Key Features
Symbol Locked: No matter what stock you are viewing (Reliance, HDFC, Midcaps), the background only reacts to NSE:NIFTY.
Clean Interface: No messy lines or labels on the price chart. The information is conveyed purely through background color shifts.
Customizable: Change the MA types (EMA/SMA) and lengths (e.g., 10/20 or 20/50) in the settings.
Macro Dashboard: A small, transparent table in the top-right corner displays exactly which timeframe is currently controlling the background color.
How to Use for Nifty Strategy
Stay Out: If the chart is Deep Maroon or Dark Red, do not look for "buying the dip." Wait for the macro health to return.
Take Exits: If the background is Light Green and suddenly turns Light Red, it means the Daily Daily 10/20 cross has happened. Exit your Nifty-sensitive positions immediately.
ORB Fusion🎯 CORE INNOVATION: INSTITUTIONAL ORB FRAMEWORK WITH FAILED BREAKOUT INTELLIGENCE
ORB Fusion represents a complete institutional-grade Opening Range Breakout system combining classic Market Profile concepts (Initial Balance, day type classification) with modern algorithmic breakout detection, failed breakout reversal logic, and comprehensive statistical tracking. Rather than simply drawing lines at opening range extremes, this system implements the full trading methodology used by professional floor traders and market makers—including the critical concept that failed breakouts are often higher-probability setups than successful breakouts .
The Opening Range Hypothesis:
The first 30-60 minutes of trading establishes the day's value area —the price range where the majority of participants agree on fair value. This range is formed during peak information flow (overnight news digestion, gap reactions, early institutional positioning). Breakouts from this range signal directional conviction; failures to hold breakouts signal trapped participants and create exploitable reversals.
Why Opening Range Matters:
1. Information Aggregation : Opening range reflects overnight news, pre-market sentiment, and early institutional orders. It's the market's initial "consensus" on value.
2. Liquidity Concentration : Stop losses cluster just outside opening range. Breakouts trigger these stops, creating momentum. Failed breakouts trap traders, forcing reversals.
3. Statistical Persistence : Markets exhibit range expansion tendency —when price accepts above/below opening range with volume, it often extends 1.0-2.0x the opening range size before mean reversion.
4. Institutional Behavior : Large players (market makers, institutions) use opening range as reference for the day's trading plan. They fade extremes in rotation days and follow breakouts in trend days.
Historical Context:
Opening Range Breakout methodology originated in commodity futures pits (1970s-80s) where floor traders noticed consistent patterns: the first 30-60 minutes established a "fair value zone," and directional moves occurred when this zone was violated with conviction. J. Peter Steidlmayer formalized this observation in Market Profile theory, introducing the "Initial Balance" concept—the first hour (two 30-minute periods) defining market structure.
📊 OPENING RANGE CONSTRUCTION
Four ORB Timeframe Options:
1. 5-Minute ORB (0930-0935 ET):
Captures immediate market direction during "opening drive"—the explosive first few minutes when overnight orders hit the tape.
Use Case:
• Scalping strategies
• High-frequency breakout trading
• Extremely liquid instruments (ES, NQ, SPY)
Characteristics:
• Very tight range (often 0.2-0.5% of price)
• Early breakouts common (7 of 10 days break within first hour)
• Higher false breakout rate (50-60%)
• Requires sub-minute chart monitoring
Psychology: Captures panic buyers/sellers reacting to overnight news. Range is small because sample size is minimal—only 5 minutes of price discovery. Early breakouts often fail because they're driven by retail FOMO rather than institutional conviction.
2. 15-Minute ORB (0930-0945 ET):
Balances responsiveness with statistical validity. Captures opening drive plus initial reaction to that drive.
Use Case:
• Day trading strategies
• Balanced scalping/swing hybrid
• Most liquid instruments
Characteristics:
• Moderate range (0.4-0.8% of price typically)
• Breakout rate ~60% of days
• False breakout rate ~40-45%
• Good balance of opportunity and reliability
Psychology: Includes opening panic AND the first retest/consolidation. Sophisticated traders (institutions, algos) start expressing directional bias. This is the "Goldilocks" timeframe—not too reactive, not too slow.
3. 30-Minute ORB (0930-1000 ET):
Classic ORB timeframe. Default for most professional implementations.
Use Case:
• Standard intraday trading
• Position sizing for full-day trades
• All liquid instruments (equities, indices, futures)
Characteristics:
• Substantial range (0.6-1.2% of price)
• Breakout rate ~55% of days
• False breakout rate ~35-40%
• Statistical sweet spot for extensions
Psychology: Full opening auction + first institutional repositioning complete. By 10:00 AM ET, headlines are digested, early stops are hit, and "real" directional players reveal themselves. This is when institutional programs typically finish their opening positioning.
Statistical Advantage: 30-minute ORB shows highest correlation with daily range. When price breaks and holds outside 30m ORB, probability of reaching 1.0x extension (doubling the opening range) exceeds 60% historically.
4. 60-Minute ORB (0930-1030 ET) - Initial Balance:
Steidlmayer's "Initial Balance"—the foundation of Market Profile theory.
Use Case:
• Swing trading entries
• Day type classification
• Low-frequency institutional setups
Characteristics:
• Wide range (0.8-1.5% of price)
• Breakout rate ~45% of days
• False breakout rate ~25-30% (lowest)
• Best for trend day identification
Psychology: Full first hour captures A-period (0930-1000) and B-period (1000-1030). By 10:30 AM ET, all early positioning is complete. Market has "voted" on value. Subsequent price action confirms (trend day) or rejects (rotation day) this value assessment.
Initial Balance Theory:
IB represents the market's accepted value area . When price extends significantly beyond IB (>1.5x IB range), it signals a Trend Day —strong directional conviction. When price remains within 1.0x IB, it signals a Rotation Day —mean reversion environment. This classification completely changes trading strategy.
🔬 LTF PRECISION TECHNOLOGY
The Chart Timeframe Problem:
Traditional ORB indicators calculate range using the chart's current timeframe. This creates critical inaccuracies:
Example:
• You're on a 5-minute chart
• ORB period is 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET)
• Indicator sees only 6 bars (30min ÷ 5min/bar = 6 bars)
• If any 5-minute bar has extreme wick, entire ORB is distorted
The Problem Amplifies:
• On 15-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 2 bars sampled
• On 30-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 1 bar sampled
• Opening spike or single large wick defines entire range (invalid)
Solution: Lower Timeframe (LTF) Precision:
ORB Fusion uses `request.security_lower_tf()` to sample 1-minute bars regardless of chart timeframe:
```
For 30-minute ORB on 15-minute chart:
- Traditional method: Uses 2 bars (15min × 2 = 30min)
- LTF Precision: Requests thirty 1-minute bars, calculates true high/low
```
Why This Matters:
Scenario: ES futures, 15-minute chart, 30-minute ORB
• Traditional ORB: High = 5850.00, Low = 5842.00 (range = 8 points)
• LTF Precision ORB: High = 5848.50, Low = 5843.25 (range = 5.25 points)
Difference: 2.75 points distortion from single 15-minute wick hitting 5850.00 at 9:31 AM then immediately reversing. LTF precision filters this out by seeing it was a fleeting wick, not a sustained high.
Impact on Extensions:
With inflated range (8 points vs 5.25 points):
• 1.5x extension projects +12 points instead of +7.875 points
• Difference: 4.125 points (nearly $200 per ES contract)
• Breakout signals trigger late; extension targets unreachable
Implementation:
```pinescript
getLtfHighLow() =>
float ha = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", high)
float la = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", low)
```
Function returns arrays of 1-minute high/low values, then finds true maximum and minimum across all samples.
When LTF Precision Activates:
Only when chart timeframe exceeds ORB session window:
• 5-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF used (chart TF > session bars needed)
• 1-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF not needed (direct sampling sufficient)
Recommendation: Always enable LTF Precision unless you're on 1-minute charts. The computational overhead is negligible, and accuracy improvement is substantial.
⚖️ INITIAL BALANCE (IB) FRAMEWORK
Steidlmayer's Market Profile Innovation:
J. Peter Steidlmayer developed Market Profile in the 1980s for the Chicago Board of Trade. His key insight: market structure is best understood through time-at-price (value area) rather than just price-over-time (traditional charts).
Initial Balance Definition:
IB is the price range established during the first hour of trading, subdivided into:
• A-Period : First 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET for US equities)
• B-Period : Second 30 minutes (1000-1030 ET)
A-Period vs B-Period Comparison:
The relationship between A and B periods forecasts the day:
B-Period Expansion (Bullish):
• B-period high > A-period high
• B-period low ≥ A-period low
• Interpretation: Buyers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bullish continuation likely
• Strategy: Buy pullbacks to A-period high (now support)
B-Period Expansion (Bearish):
• B-period low < A-period low
• B-period high ≤ A-period high
• Interpretation: Sellers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bearish continuation likely
• Strategy: Sell rallies to A-period low (now resistance)
B-Period Contraction:
• B-period stays within A-period range
• Interpretation: Market indecisive, digesting A-period information
• Implication: Rotation day likely, stay range-bound
• Strategy: Fade extremes, sell high/buy low within IB
IB Extensions:
Professional traders use IB as a ruler to project price targets:
Extension Levels:
• 0.5x IB : Initial probe outside value (minor target)
• 1.0x IB : Full extension (major target for normal days)
• 1.5x IB : Trend day threshold (classifies as trending)
• 2.0x IB : Strong trend day (rare, ~10-15% of days)
Calculation:
```
IB Range = IB High - IB Low
Bull Extension 1.0x = IB High + (IB Range × 1.0)
Bear Extension 1.0x = IB Low - (IB Range × 1.0)
```
Example:
ES futures:
• IB High: 5850.00
• IB Low: 5842.00
• IB Range: 8.00 points
Extensions:
• 1.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 8 = 5858.00
• 1.5x Bull Target: 5850 + 12 = 5862.00
• 2.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 16 = 5866.00
If price reaches 5862.00 (1.5x), day is classified as Trend Day —strategy shifts from mean reversion to trend following.
📈 DAY TYPE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
Four Day Types (Market Profile Framework):
1. TREND DAY:
Definition: Price extends ≥1.5x IB range in one direction and stays there.
Characteristics:
• Opens and never returns to IB
• Persistent directional movement
• Volume increases as day progresses (conviction building)
• News-driven or strong institutional flow
Frequency: ~20-25% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Follow the trend, trail stops, let winners run
• DON'T: Fade extremes, take early profits
• Key: Add to position on pullbacks to previous extension level
• Risk: Getting chopped in false trend (see Failed Breakout section)
Example: FOMC decision, payroll report, earnings surprise—anything creating one-sided conviction.
2. NORMAL DAY:
Definition: Price extends 0.5-1.5x IB, tests both sides, returns to IB.
Characteristics:
• Two-sided trading
• Extensions occur but don't persist
• Volume balanced throughout day
• Most common day type
Frequency: ~45-50% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Take profits at extension levels, expect reversals
• DON'T: Hold for massive moves
• Key: Treat each extension as a profit-taking opportunity
• Risk: Holding too long when momentum shifts
Example: Typical day with no major catalysts—market balancing supply and demand.
3. ROTATION DAY:
Definition: Price stays within IB all day, rotating between high and low.
Characteristics:
• Never accepts outside IB
• Multiple tests of IB high/low
• Decreasing volume (no conviction)
• Classic range-bound action
Frequency: ~25-30% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Fade extremes (sell IB high, buy IB low)
• DON'T: Chase breakouts
• Key: Enter at extremes with tight stops just outside IB
• Risk: Breakout finally occurs after multiple failures
Example: [/b> Pre-holiday trading, summer doldrums, consolidation after big move.
4. DEVELOPING:
Definition: Day type not yet determined (early in session).
Usage: Classification before 12:00 PM ET when IB extension pattern unclear.
ORB Fusion's Classification Algorithm:
```pinescript
if close > ibHigh:
ibExtension = (close - ibHigh) / ibRange
direction = "BULLISH"
else if close < ibLow:
ibExtension = (ibLow - close) / ibRange
direction = "BEARISH"
if ibExtension >= 1.5:
dayType = "TREND DAY"
else if ibExtension >= 0.5:
dayType = "NORMAL DAY"
else if close within IB:
dayType = "ROTATION DAY"
```
Why Classification Matters:
Same setup (bullish ORB breakout) has opposite implications:
• Trend Day : Hold for 2.0x extension, trail stops aggressively
• Normal Day : Take profits at 1.0x extension, watch for reversal
• Rotation Day : Fade the breakout immediately (likely false)
Knowing day type prevents catastrophic errors like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
🚀 BREAKOUT DETECTION & CONFIRMATION
Three Confirmation Methods:
1. Close Beyond Level (Recommended):
Logic: Candle must close above ORB high (bull) or below ORB low (bear).
Why:
• Filters out wicks (temporary liquidity grabs)
• Ensures sustained acceptance above/below range
• Reduces false breakout rate by ~20-30%
Example:
• ORB High: 5850.00
• Bar high touches 5850.50 (wick above)
• Bar closes at 5848.00 (inside range)
• Result: NO breakout signal
vs.
• Bar high touches 5850.50
• Bar closes at 5851.00 (outside range)
• Result: BREAKOUT signal confirmed
Trade-off: Slightly delayed entry (wait for close) but much higher reliability.
2. Wick Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Any touch of ORB high/low triggers breakout.
Why:
• Earliest possible entry
• Captures aggressive momentum moves
Risk:
• High false breakout rate (60-70%)
• Stop runs trigger signals
• Requires very tight stops (difficult to manage)
Use Case: Scalping with 1-2 point profit targets where any penetration = trade.
3. Body Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Candle body (close vs open) must be entirely outside range.
Why:
• Strictest confirmation
• Ensures directional conviction (not just momentum)
• Lowest false breakout rate
Example: Trade-off: [/b> Very conservative—misses some valid breakouts but rarely triggers on false ones.
Volume Confirmation Layer:
All confirmation methods can require volume validation:
Volume Multiplier Logic: Rationale: [/b> True breakouts are driven by institutional activity (large size). Volume spike confirms real conviction vs. stop-run manipulation.
Statistical Impact: [/b>
• Breakouts with volume confirmation: ~65% success rate
• Breakouts without volume: ~45% success rate
• Difference: 20 percentage points edge
Implementation Note: [/b>
Volume confirmation adds complexity—you'll miss breakouts that work but lack volume. However, when targeting 1.5x+ extensions (ambitious goals), volume confirmation becomes critical because those moves require sustained institutional participation.
Recommended Settings by Strategy: [/b>
Scalping (1-2 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: OFF
• Rationale: Quick in/out doesn't need perfection
Intraday Swing (5-10 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: ON (1.5x multiplier)
• Rationale: Balance reliability and opportunity
Position Trading (full-day holds): [/b>
• Method: Body
• Volume: ON (2.0x multiplier)
• Rationale: Must be certain—large stops require high win rate
🔥 FAILED BREAKOUT SYSTEM
The Core Insight: [/b>
Failed breakouts are often more profitable [/b> than successful breakouts because they create trapped traders with predictable behavior.
Failed Breakout Definition: [/b>
A breakout that:
1. Initially penetrates ORB level with confirmation
2. Attracts participants (volume spike, momentum)
3. Fails to extend (stalls or immediately reverses)
4. Returns inside ORB range within N bars
Psychology of Failure: [/b>
When breakout fails:
• Breakout buyers are trapped [/b>: Bought at ORB high, now underwater
• Early longs reduce: Take profit, fearful of reversal
• Shorts smell blood: See failed breakout as reversal signal
• Result: Cascade of selling as trapped bulls exit + new shorts enter
Mirror image for failed bearish breakouts (trapped shorts cover + new longs enter).
Failure Detection Parameters: [/b>
1. Failure Confirmation Bars (default: 3): [/b>
How many bars after breakout to confirm failure?
Logic: Settings: [/b>
• 2 bars: Aggressive failure detection (more signals, more false failures)
• 3 bars Balanced (default)
• 5-10 bars: Conservative (wait for clear reversal)
Why This Matters:
Too few bars: You call "failed breakout" when price is just consolidating before next leg.
Too many bars: You miss the reversal entry (price already back in range).
2. Failure Buffer (default: 0.1 ATR): [/b>
How far inside ORB must price return to confirm failure?
Formula: Why Buffer Matters: clear rejection [/b> (not just hovering at level).
Settings: [/b>
• 0.0 ATR: No buffer, immediate failure signal
• 0.1 ATR: Small buffer (default) - filters noise
• [b>0.2-0.3 ATR: Large buffer - only dramatic failures count
Example: Reversal Entry System: [/b>
When failure confirmed, system generates complete reversal trade:
For Failed Bull Breakout (Short Reversal): [/b>
Entry: [/b> Current close when failure confirmed
Stop Loss: [/b> Extreme high since breakout + 0.10 ATR padding
Target 1: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 0.5)
Target 2: Target 3: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 1.5)
Example:
• ORB High: 5850, ORB Low: 5842, Range: 8 points
• Breakout to 5853, fails, reverses to 5848 (entry)
• Stop: 5853 + 1 = 5854 (6 point risk)
• T1: 5850 - 4 = 5846 (-2 points, 1:3 R:R)
• T2: 5850 - 8 = 5842 (-6 points, 1:1 R:R)
• T3: 5850 - 12 = 5838 (-10 points, 1.67:1 R:R)
[b>Why These Targets? [/b>
• T1 (0.5x ORB below high): Trapped bulls start panic
• T2 (1.0x ORB = ORB Mid): Major retracement, momentum fully reversed
• T3 (1.5x ORB): Reversal extended, now targeting opposite side
Historical Performance: [/b>
Failed breakout reversals in ORB Fusion's tracking system show:
• Win Rate: 65-75% (significantly higher than initial breakouts)
• Average Winner: 1.2x ORB range
• Average Loser: 0.5x ORB range (protected by stop at extreme)
• Expectancy: Strongly positive even with <70% win rate
Why Failed Breakouts Outperform: [/b>
1. Information Advantage: You now know what price did (failed to extend). Initial breakout trades are speculative; reversal trades are reactive to confirmed failure.
2. Trapped Participant Pressure: Every trapped bull becomes a seller. This creates sustained pressure.
3. Stop Loss Clarity: Extreme high is obvious stop (just beyond recent high). Breakout trades have ambiguous stops (ORB mid? Recent low? Too wide or too tight).
4. Mean Reversion Edge: Failed breakouts return to value (ORB mid). Initial breakouts try to escape value (harder to sustain).
Critical Insight: [/b>
"The best trade is often the one that trapped everyone else."
Failed breakouts create asymmetric opportunity because you're trading against [/b> trapped participants rather than with [/b> them. When you see a failed breakout signal, you're seeing real-time evidence that the market rejected directional conviction—that's exploitable.
📐 FIBONACCI EXTENSION SYSTEM
Six Extension Levels: [/b>
Extensions project how far price will travel after ORB breakout. Based on Fibonacci ratios + empirical market behavior.
1. 1.272x (27.2% Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.272)
Psychology: [/b> Initial probe beyond ORB. Early momentum + trapped shorts (on bull side) covering.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~75-80% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• First resistance/support after breakout
• Partial profit target (take 30-50% off)
• Watch for rejection here (could signal failure in progress)
Why 1.272? [/b> Related to harmonic patterns (1.272 is √1.618). Empirically, markets often stall at 25-30% extension before deciding whether to continue or fail.
2. 1.5x (50% Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.5)
Psychology: [/b> Breakout gaining conviction. Requires sustained buying/selling (not just momentum spike).
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~60-65% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Major partial profit (take 50-70% off)
• Move stops to breakeven
• Trail remaining position
Why 1.5x? [/b> Classic halfway point to 2.0x. Markets often consolidate here before final push. If day type is "Normal," this is likely the high/low for the day.
3. 1.618x (Golden Ratio Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.618)
Psychology: [/b> Strong directional day. Institutional conviction + retail FOMO.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~45-50% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Final partial profit (close 80-90%)
• Trail remainder with wide stop (allow breathing room)
Why 1.618? [/b> Fibonacci golden ratio. Appears consistently in market geometry. When price reaches 1.618x extension, move is "mature" and reversal risk increases.
4. 2.0x (100% Extension): [/b>
Formula: ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.0)
Psychology: [/b> Trend day confirmed. Opening range completely duplicated.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~30-35% after confirmed breakout
Trading: Why 2.0x? [/b> Psychological level—range doubled. Also corresponds to typical daily ATR in many instruments (opening range ~ 0.5 ATR, daily range ~ 1.0 ATR).
5. 2.618x (Super Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.618)
Psychology: [/b> Parabolic move. News-driven or squeeze.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~10-15% after confirmed breakout
[b>Trading: Why 2.618? [/b> Fibonacci ratio (1.618²). Rare to reach—when it does, move is extreme. Often precedes multi-day consolidation or reversal.
6. 3.0x (Extreme Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 2.0)
Psychology: [/b> Market melt-up/crash. Only in extreme events.
[b>Probability of Reach: [/b> <5% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Close immediately if reached
• These are outlier events (black swans, flash crashes, squeeze-outs)
• Holding for more is greed—take windfall profit
Why 3.0x? [/b> Triple opening range. So rare it's statistical noise. When it happens, it's headline news.
Visual Example:
ES futures, ORB 5842-5850 (8 point range), Bullish breakout:
• ORB High : 5850.00 (entry zone)
• 1.272x : 5850 + 2.18 = 5852.18 (first resistance)
• 1.5x : 5850 + 4.00 = 5854.00 (major target)
• 1.618x : 5850 + 4.94 = 5854.94 (strong target)
• 2.0x : 5850 + 8.00 = 5858.00 (trend day)
• 2.618x : 5850 + 12.94 = 5862.94 (extreme)
• 3.0x : 5850 + 16.00 = 5866.00 (parabolic)
Profit-Taking Strategy:
Optimal scaling out at extensions:
• Breakout entry at 5850.50
• 30% off at 1.272x (5852.18) → +1.68 points
• 40% off at 1.5x (5854.00) → +3.50 points
• 20% off at 1.618x (5854.94) → +4.44 points
• 10% off at 2.0x (5858.00) → +7.50 points
[b>Average Exit: Conclusion: [/b> Scaling out at extensions produces 40% higher expectancy than holding for home runs.
📊 GAP ANALYSIS & FILL PSYCHOLOGY
[b>Gap Definition: [/b>
Price discontinuity between previous close and current open:
• Gap Up : Open > Previous Close + noise threshold (0.1 ATR)
• Gap Down : Open < Previous Close - noise threshold
Why Gaps Matter: [/b>
Gaps represent unfilled orders [/b>. When market gaps up, all limit buy orders between yesterday's close and today's open are never filled. Those buyers are "left behind." Psychology: they wait for price to return ("fill the gap") so they can enter. This creates magnetic pull [/b> toward gap level.
Gap Fill Statistics (Empirical): [/b>
• Gaps <0.5% [/b>: 85-90% fill within same day
• Gaps 0.5-1.0% [/b>: 70-75% fill within same day, 90%+ within week
• Gaps >1.0% [/b>: 50-60% fill within same day (major news often prevents fill)
Gap Fill Strategy: [/b>
Setup 1: Gap-and-Go
Gap opens, extends away from gap (doesn't fill).
• ORB confirms direction away from gap
• Trade WITH ORB breakout direction
• Expectation: Gap won't fill today (momentum too strong)
Setup 2: Gap-Fill Fade
Gap opens, but fails to extend. Price drifts back toward gap.
• ORB breakout TOWARD gap (not away)
• Trade toward gap fill level
• Target: Previous close (gap fill complete)
Setup 3: Gap-Fill Rejection
Gap fills (touches previous close) then rejects.
• ORB breakout AWAY from gap after fill
• Trade away from gap direction
• Thesis: Gap filled (orders executed), now resume original direction
[b>Example: Scenario A (Gap-and-Go):
• ORB breaks upward to $454 (away from gap)
• Trade: LONG breakout, expect continued rally
• Gap becomes support ($452)
Scenario B (Gap-Fill):
• ORB breaks downward through $452.50 (toward gap)
• Trade: SHORT toward gap fill at $450.00
• Target: $450.00 (gap filled), close position
Scenario C (Gap-Fill Rejection):
• Price drifts to $450.00 (gap filled) early in session
• ORB establishes $450-$451 after gap fill
• ORB breaks upward to $451.50
• Trade: LONG breakout (gap is filled, now resume rally)
ORB Fusion Integration: [/b>
Dashboard shows:
• Gap type (Up/Down/None)
• Gap size (percentage)
• Gap fill status (Filled ✓ / Open)
This informs setup confidence:
• ORB breakout AWAY from unfilled gap: +10% confidence (gap becomes support/resistance)
• ORB breakout TOWARD unfilled gap: -10% confidence (gap fill may override ORB)
[b>📈 VWAP & INSTITUTIONAL BIAS [/b>
[b>Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): [/b>
Average price weighted by volume at each price level. Represents true "average" cost for the day.
[b>Calculation: Institutional Benchmark [/b>: Institutions (mutual funds, pension funds) use VWAP as performance benchmark. If they buy above VWAP, they underperformed; below VWAP, they outperformed.
2. [b>Algorithmic Target [/b>: Many algos are programmed to buy below VWAP and sell above VWAP to achieve "fair" execution.
3. [b>Support/Resistance [/b>: VWAP acts as dynamic support (price above) or resistance (price below).
[b>VWAP Bands (Standard Deviations): [/b>
• [b>1σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 1 standard deviation
- Contains ~68% of volume
- Normal trading range
- Bounces common
• [b>2σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 2 standard deviations
- Contains ~95% of volume
- Extreme extension
- Mean reversion likely
ORB + VWAP Confluence: [/b>
Highest-probability setups occur when ORB and VWAP align:
Bullish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout upward (bullish signal)
• Price above VWAP (institutional buying)
• Confidence boost: +15%
Bearish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout downward (bearish signal)
• Price below VWAP (institutional selling)
• Confidence boost: +15%
[b>Divergence Warning:
• ORB breakout upward BUT price below VWAP
• Conflict: Breakout says "buy," VWAP says "sell"
• Confidence penalty: -10%
• Interpretation: Retail buying but institutions not participating (lower quality breakout)
📊 MOMENTUM CONTEXT SYSTEM
[b>Innovation: Candle Coloring by Position
Rather than fixed support/resistance lines, ORB Fusion colors candles based on their [b>relationship to ORB :
[b>Three Zones: [/b>
1. Inside ORB (Blue Boxes): [/b>
[b>Calculation:
• Darker blue: Near extremes of ORB (potential breakout imminent)
• Lighter blue: Near ORB mid (consolidation)
[b>Trading: [/b> Coiled spring—await breakout.
[b>2. Above ORB (Green Boxes):
[b>Calculation: 3. Below ORB (Red Boxes):
Mirror of above ORB logic.
[b>Special Contexts: [/b>
[b>Breakout Bar (Darkest Green/Red): [/b>
The specific bar where breakout occurs gets maximum color intensity regardless of distance. This highlights the pivotal moment.
[b>Failed Breakout Bar (Orange/Warning): [/b>
When failed breakout is confirmed, that bar gets orange/warning color. Visual alert: "reversal opportunity here."
[b>Near Extension (Cyan/Magenta Tint): [/b>
When price is within 0.5 ATR of an extension level, candle gets tinted cyan (bull) or magenta (bear). Indicates "target approaching—prepare to take profit."
[b>Why Visual Context? [/b>
Traditional indicators show lines. ORB Fusion shows [b>context-aware momentum [/b>. Glance at chart:
• Lots of blue? Consolidation day (fade extremes).
• Progressive green? Trend day (follow).
• Green then orange? Failed breakout (reversal setup).
This visual language communicates market state instantly—no interpretation needed.
🎯 TRADE SETUP GENERATION & GRADING [/b>
[b>Algorithmic Setup Detection: [/b>
ORB Fusion continuously evaluates market state and generates current best trade setup with:
• Action (LONG / SHORT / FADE HIGH / FADE LOW / WAIT)
• Entry price
• Stop loss
• Three targets
• Risk:Reward ratio
• Confidence score (0-100)
• Grade (A+ to D)
[b>Setup Types: [/b>
[b>1. ORB LONG (Bullish Breakout): [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bullish ORB breakout confirmed
• Not failed
[b>Parameters:
• Entry: Current close
• Stop: ORB mid (protects against failure)
• T1: ORB High + 0.5x range (1.5x extension)
• T2: ORB High + 1.0x range (2.0x extension)
• T3: ORB High + 1.618x range (2.618x extension)
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bearish breakout occurred
• Failed (returned inside ORB)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: Close when failure confirmed
• Stop: Extreme low since breakout + 0.10 ATR
• T1: ORB Low + 0.5x range
• T2: ORB Low + 1.0x range (ORB mid)
• T3: ORB Low + 1.5x range
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger:
• Inside ORB
• Close > ORB mid (near high)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: ORB High (limit order)
• Stop: ORB High + 0.2x range
• T1: ORB Mid
• T2: ORB Low
[b>Confidence Scoring: [/b>
Base: 40 points (lower base—range fading is lower probability than breakout/reversal)
[b>Use Case: [/b> Rotation days. Not recommended on normal/trend days.
[b>6. FADE LOW (Range Trade):
Mirror of FADE HIGH.
[b>7. WAIT:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• ORB not complete yet OR
• No clear setup (price in no-man's-land)
[b>Action: [/b> Observe, don't trade.
[b>Confidence: [/b> 0 points
[b>Grading System:
```
Confidence → Grade
85-100 → A+
75-84 → A
65-74 → B+
55-64 → B
45-54 → C
0-44 → D
```
[b>Grade Interpretation: [/b>
• [b>A+ / A: High probability setup. Take these trades.
• [b>B+ / B [/b>: Decent setup. Trade if fits system rules.
• [b>C [/b>: Marginal setup. Only if very experienced.
• [b>D [/b>: Poor setup or no setup. Don't trade.
[b>Example Scenario: [/b>
ES futures:
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 point range)
• Bullish breakout to 5851 confirmed
• Volume: 2.0x average (confirmed)
• VWAP: 5845 (price above VWAP ✓)
• Day type: Developing (too early, no bonus)
• Gap: None
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Action: LONG
• Entry: 5851
• Stop: 5846 (ORB mid, -5 point risk)
• T1: 5854 (+3 points, 1:0.6 R:R)
• T2: 5858 (+7 points, 1:1.4 R:R)
• T3: 5862.94 (+11.94 points, 1:2.4 R:R)
[b>Confidence: LONG with 55% confidence.
Interpretation: Solid setup, not perfect. Trade it if your system allows B-grade signals.
[b>📊 STATISTICS TRACKING & PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS [/b>
[b>Real-Time Performance Metrics: [/b>
ORB Fusion tracks comprehensive statistics over user-defined lookback (default 50 days):
[b>Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Bull Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
• [b>Bear Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
[b>Win Definition: [/b> Breakout reaches ≥1.0x extension (doubles the opening range) before end of day.
[b>Example: [/b>
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 points)
• Bull breakout at 5851
• Reaches 5858 (1.0x extension) by close
• Result: WIN
[b>Failed Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Total Failed Breakouts [/b>: Count of breakouts that failed
• [b>Reversal Wins [/b>: Count where reversal trade reached target
• [b>Failed Reversal Win Rate [/b>: Wins / Total Failed
[b>Win Definition for Reversals: [/b>
• Failed bull → reversal short reaches ORB mid
• Failed bear → reversal long reaches ORB mid
[b>Extension Tracking: [/b>
• [b>Average Extension Reached [/b>: Mean of maximum extension achieved across all breakout days
• [b>Max Extension Overall [/b>: Largest extension ever achieved in lookback period
[b>Example: 🎨 THREE DISPLAY MODES
[b>Design Philosophy: [/b>
Not all traders need all features. Beginners want simplicity. Professionals want everything. ORB Fusion adapts.
[b>SIMPLE MODE: [/b>
[b>Shows: [/b>
• Primary ORB levels (High, Mid, Low)
• ORB box
• Breakout signals (triangles)
• Failed breakout signals (crosses)
• Basic dashboard (ORB status, breakout status, setup)
• VWAP
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels and extensions
• ORB extensions beyond basic levels
• Gap analysis visuals
• Statistics dashboard
• Momentum candle coloring
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Traders who want clean chart
• Focus on core ORB concept only
• Mobile trading (less screen space)
[b>STANDARD MODE:
[b>Shows Everything in Simple Plus: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels (high, low, mid)
• IB extensions
• ORB extensions (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x)
• Gap analysis and fill targets
• VWAP bands (1σ and 2σ)
• Momentum candle coloring
• Context section in dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Advanced extensions (2.618x, 3.0x)
• Detailed statistics dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Most traders
• Balance between information and clarity
• Covers 90% of use cases
[b>ADVANCED MODE:
[b>Shows Everything:
• All session ORBs
• All IB levels and extensions
• All ORB extensions (including 2.618x and 3.0x)
• Full gap analysis
• VWAP with both 1σ and 2σ bands
• Momentum candle coloring
• Complete statistics dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
• All context metrics
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Professional traders
• System developers
• Those who want maximum information density
[b>Switching Modes: [/b>
Single dropdown input: "Display Mode" → Simple / Standard / Advanced
Entire indicator adapts instantly. No need to toggle 20 individual settings.
📖 NARRATIVE DASHBOARD
[b>Innovation: Plain-English Market State [/b>
Most indicators show data. ORB Fusion explains what the data [b>means [/b>.
[b>Narrative Components: [/b>
[b>1. Phase: [/b>
• "📍 Building ORB..." (during ORB session)
• "📊 Trading Phase" (after ORB complete)
• "⏳ Pre-Market" (before ORB session)
[b>2. Status (Current Observation): [/b>
• "⚠️ Failed breakout - reversal likely"
• "🚀 Bullish momentum in play"
• "📉 Bearish momentum in play"
• "⚖️ Consolidating in range"
• "👀 Monitoring for setup"
[b>3. Next Level:
Tells you what to watch for:
• "🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00" (next extension target)
• "Watch ORB levels" (inside range, await breakout)
[b>4. Setup: [/b>
Current trade setup + grade:
• "LONG " (bullish breakout, A-grade)
• "🔥 SHORT REVERSAL " (failed bull breakout, A+-grade)
• "WAIT " (no setup)
[b>5. Reason: [/b>
Why this setup exists:
• "ORB Bullish Breakout"
• "Failed Bear Breakout - High Probability Reversal"
• "Range Fade - Near High"
[b>6. Tip (Market Insight):
Contextual advice:
• "🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops" (day type is trending)
• "🔄 ROTATION - Fade extremes" (day type is rotating)
• "📊 Gap unfilled - magnet level" (gap creates target)
• "📈 Normal conditions" (no special context)
[b>Example Narrative:
```
📖 ORB Narrative
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Phase | 📊 Trading Phase
Status | 🚀 Bullish momentum in play
Next | 🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00
📈 Setup | LONG
Reason | ORB Bullish Breakout
💡 Tip | 🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops
```
[b>Glance Interpretation: [/b>
"We're in trading phase. Bullish breakout happened (momentum in play). Next target is 1.5x extension at 5854. Current setup is LONG with A-grade. It's a trend day, so trail stops (don't take early profits)."
Complete market state communicated in 6 lines. No interpretation needed.
[b>Why This Matters:
Beginner traders struggle with "So what?" question. Indicators show lines and signals, but what does it mean [/b>? Narrative dashboard bridges this gap.
Professional traders benefit too—rapid context assessment during fast-moving markets. No time to analyze; glance at narrative, get action plan.
🔔 INTELLIGENT ALERT SYSTEM
[b>Four Alert Types: [/b>
[b>1. Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> ORB breakout confirmed (bull or bear)
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🚀 ORB BULLISH BREAKOUT
Price: 5851.00
Volume Confirmed
Grade: A
```
[b>Frequency: [/b> Once per bar (prevents spam)
[b>2. Failed Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Breakout fails, reversal setup generated
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🔥 FAILED BULLISH BREAKOUT!
HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT REVERSAL
Entry: 5848.00
Stop: 5854.00
T1: 5846.00
T2: 5842.00
Historical Win Rate: 73%
```
[b>Why Comprehensive? [/b> Failed breakout alerts include complete trade plan. You can execute immediately from alert—no need to check chart.
[b>3. Extension Alert:
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price reaches extension level for first time
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🎯 Bull Extension 1.5x reached @ 5854.00
```
[b>Use: [/b> Profit-taking reminder. When extension hit, consider scaling out.
[b>4. IB Break Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price breaks above IB high or below IB low
[b>Message: [/b>
```
📊 IB HIGH BROKEN - Potential Trend Day
```
[b>Use: [/b> Day type classification. IB break suggests trend day developing—adjust strategy to trend-following mode.
[b>Alert Management: [/b>
Each alert type can be enabled/disabled independently. Prevents notification overload.
[b>Cooldown Logic: [/b>
Alerts won't fire if same alert type triggered within last bar. Prevents:
• "Breakout" alert every tick during choppy breakout
• Multiple "extension" alerts if price oscillates at level
Ensures: One clean alert per event.
⚙️ KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
[b>Opening Range Settings: [/b>
• [b>ORB Timeframe [/b> (5/15/30/60 min): Duration of opening range window
- 30 min recommended for most traders
• [b>Use RTH Only [/b> (ON/OFF): Only trade during regular trading hours
- ON recommended (avoids thin overnight markets)
• [b>Use LTF Precision [/b> (ON/OFF): Sample 1-minute bars for accuracy
- ON recommended (critical for charts >1 minute)
• [b>Precision TF [/b> (1/5 min): Timeframe for LTF sampling
- 1 min recommended (most accurate)
[b>Session ORBs: [/b>
• [b>Show Asian/London/NY ORB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display multi-session ranges
- OFF in Simple mode
- ON in Standard/Advanced if trading 24hr markets
• [b>Session Windows [/b>: Time ranges for each session ORB
- Defaults align with major session opens
[b>Initial Balance: [/b>
• [b>Show IB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display Initial Balance levels
- ON recommended for day type classification
• [b>IB Session Window [/b> (0930-1030): First hour of trading
- Default is standard for US equities
• [b>Show IB Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project IB extension targets
- ON recommended (identifies trend days)
• [b>IB Extensions 1-4 [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x, 2.0x): Extension multipliers
- Defaults are Market Profile standard
[b>ORB Extensions: [/b>
• [b>Show Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project ORB extension targets
- ON recommended (defines profit targets)
• [b>Enable Individual Extensions [/b> (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, 2.618x, 3.0x)
- Enable 1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x minimum
- Disable 2.618x and 3.0x unless trading very volatile instruments
[b>Breakout Detection:
• [b>Confirmation Method [/b> (Close/Wick/Body):
- Close recommended (best balance)
- Wick for scalping
- Body for conservative
• [b>Require Volume Confirmation [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (increases reliability)
• [b>Volume Multiplier [/b> (1.0-3.0):
- 1.5x recommended
- Lower for thin instruments
- Higher for heavy volume instruments
[b>Failed Breakout System: [/b>
• [b>Enable Failed Breakouts [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON strongly recommended (highest edge)
• [b>Bars to Confirm Failure [/b> (2-10):
- 3 bars recommended
- 2 for aggressive (more signals, more false failures)
- 5+ for conservative (fewer signals, higher quality)
• [b>Failure Buffer [/b> (0.0-0.5 ATR):
- 0.1 ATR recommended
- Filters noise during consolidation near ORB level
• [b>Show Reversal Targets [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (visualizes trade plan)
• [b>Reversal Target Mults [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x):
- Defaults are tested values
- Adjust based on average daily range
[b>Gap Analysis:
• [b>Show Gap Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON if trading instruments that gap frequently
- OFF for 24hr markets (forex, crypto—no gaps)
• [b>Gap Fill Target [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON to visualize previous close (gap fill level)
[b>VWAP:
• [b>Show VWAP [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (key institutional level)
• [b>Show VWAP Bands [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON in Standard/Advanced
- OFF in Simple
• [b>Band Multipliers (1.0σ, 2.0σ):
- Defaults are standard
- 1σ = normal range, 2σ = extreme
[b>Day Type: [/b>
• [b>Show Day Type Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (critical for strategy adaptation)
• [b>Trend Day Threshold [/b> (1.0-2.5 IB mult):
- 1.5x recommended
- When price extends >1.5x IB, classifies as Trend Day
[b>Enhanced Visuals:
• [b>Show Momentum Candles [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for visual context
- OFF if chart gets too colorful
• [b>Show Gradient Zone Fills [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for professional look
- OFF for minimalist chart
• [b>Label Display Mode [/b> (All/Adaptive/Minimal):
- Adaptive recommended (shows nearby labels only)
- All for information density
- Minimal for clean chart
• [b>Label Proximity [/b> (1.0-5.0 ATR):
- 3.0 ATR recommended
- Labels beyond this distance are hidden (Adaptive mode)
[b>🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL [/b>
[b>Phase 1: Learning the System (Week 1) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Understand ORB concepts and dashboard interpretation
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Display Mode: STANDARD
• ORB Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Enable ALL features (IB, extensions, failed breakouts, VWAP, gap analysis)
• Enable statistics tracking
[b>Actions: [/b>
• Paper trade ONLY—no real money
• Observe ORB formation every day (9:30-10:00 AM ET for US markets)
• Note when ORB breakouts occur and if they extend
• Note when breakouts fail and reversals happen
• Watch day type classification evolve during session
• Track statistics—which setups are working?
[b>Key Learning: [/b>
• How often do breakouts reach 1.5x extension? (typically 50-60% of confirmed breakouts)
• How often do breakouts fail? (typically 30-40%)
• Which setup grade (A/B/C) actually performs best? (should see A-grade outperforming)
• What day type produces best results? (trend days favor breakouts, rotation days favor fades)
[b>Phase 2: Parameter Optimization (Week 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Tune system to your instrument and timeframe
[b>ORB Timeframe Selection:
• Run 5 days with 15-minute ORB
• Run 5 days with 30-minute ORB
• Compare: Which captures better breakouts on your instrument?
• Typically: 30-minute optimal for most, 15-minute for very liquid (ES, SPY)
[b>Volume Confirmation Testing:
• Run 5 days WITH volume confirmation
• Run 5 days WITHOUT volume confirmation
• Compare: Does volume confirmation increase win rate?
• If win rate improves by >5%: Keep volume confirmation ON
• If no improvement: Turn OFF (avoid missing valid breakouts)
[b>Failed Breakout Bars:
[b>Goal: [/b> Develop personal trading rules based on system signals
[b>Setup Selection Rules: [/b>
Define which setups you'll trade:
• [b>Conservative: [/b> Only A+ and A grades
• [b>Balanced: [/b> A+, A, B+ grades
• [b>Aggressive: [/b> All grades B and above
Test each approach for 5-10 trades, compare results.
[b>Position Sizing by Grade: [/b>
Consider risk-weighting by setup quality:
• A+ grade: 100% position size
• A grade: 75% position size
• B+ grade: 50% position size
• B grade: 25% position size
Example: If max risk is $1000/trade:
• A+ setup: Risk $1000
• A setup: Risk $750
• B+ setup: Risk $500
This matches bet sizing to edge.
[b>Day Type Adaptation: [/b>
Create rules for different day types:
Trend Days:
• Take ALL breakout signals (A/B/C grades)
• Hold for 2.0x extension minimum
• Trail stops aggressively (1.0 ATR trail)
• DON'T fade—reversals unlikely
Rotation Days:
• ONLY take failed breakout reversals
• Ignore initial breakout signals (likely to fail)
• Take profits quickly (0.5x extension)
• Focus on fade setups (Fade High/Fade Low)
Normal Days:
• Take A/A+ breakout signals only
• Take ALL failed breakout reversals (high probability)
• Target 1.0-1.5x extensions
• Partial profit-taking at extensions
Time-of-Day Rules: [/b>
Breakouts at different times have different probabilities:
10:00-10:30 AM (Early Breakout):
• ORB just completed
• Fresh breakout
• Probability: Moderate (50-55% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Conservative position sizing
10:30-12:00 PM (Mid-Morning):
• Momentum established
• Volume still healthy
• Probability: High (60-65% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Standard position sizing
12:00-2:00 PM (Lunch Doldrums):
• Volume dries up
• Whipsaw risk increases
• Probability: Low (40-45% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Avoid new entries OR reduce size 50%
2:00-4:00 PM (Afternoon Session):
• Late-day positioning
• EOD squeezes possible
• Probability: Moderate-High (55-60%)
• Strategy: Watch for IB break—if trending all day, follow
[b>Phase 4: Live Micro-Sizing (Month 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Validate paper trading results with minimal risk
[b>Setup: [/b>
• 10-20% of intended full position size
• Take ONLY A+ and A grade setups
• Follow stop loss and targets religiously
[b>Execution: [/b>
• Execute from alerts OR from dashboard setup box
• Entry: Close of signal bar OR next bar market order
• Stop: Use exact stop from setup (don't widen)
• Targets: Scale out at T1/T2/T3 as indicated
[b>Tracking: [/b>
• Log every trade: Entry, Exit, Grade, Outcome, Day Type
• Calculate: Win rate, Average R-multiple, Max consecutive losses
• Compare to paper trading results (should be within 15%)
[b>Red Flags: [/b>
• Win rate <45%: System not suitable for this instrument/timeframe
• Major divergence from paper trading: Execution issues (slippage, late entries, emotional exits)
• Max consecutive losses >8: Hitting rough patch OR market regime changed
[b>Phase 5: Scaling Up (Months 3-6)
[b>Goal: [/b> Gradually increase to full position size
[b>Progression: [/b>
• Month 3: 25-40% size (if micro-sizing profitable)
• Month 4: 40-60% size
• Month 5: 60-80% size
• Month 6: 80-100% size
[b>Milestones Required to Scale Up: [/b>
• Minimum 30 trades at current size
• Win rate ≥48%
• Profit factor ≥1.2
• Max drawdown <20%
• Emotional control (no revenge trading, no FOMO)
[b>Advanced Techniques:
[b>Multi-Timeframe ORB: Assumes first 30-60 minutes establish value. Violation: Market opens after major news, price discovery continues for hours (opening range meaningless).
2. [b>Volume Indicates Conviction: ES, NQ, RTY, SPY, QQQ—high liquidity, clean ORB formation, reliable extensions
• [b>Large-Cap Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA (>$5B market cap, >5M daily volume)
• [b>Liquid Futures: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), 6E (EUR/USD), ZB (bonds)—24hr markets benefit from session ORBs
• [b>Major Forex Pairs: [/b> EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY—London/NY session ORBs work well
[b>Performs Poorly On: [/b>
• [b>Illiquid Stocks: <$1M daily volume, wide spreads, gappy price action
• [b>Penny Stocks: [/b> Manipulated, pump-and-dump, no real price discovery
• [b>Low-Volume ETFs: Exotic sector ETFs, leveraged products with thin volume
• [b>Crypto on Sketchy Exchanges: Wash trading, spoofing invalidates volume analysis
• [b>Earnings Days: [/b> ORB completes before earnings release, then completely resets (useless)
• Binary Event Days: FDA approvals, court rulings—discontinuous price action
[b>Known Weaknesses: [/b>
• [b>Slow Starts: ORB doesn't complete until 10:00 AM (30-min ORB). Early morning traders have no signals for 30 minutes. Consider using 15-minute ORB if this is problematic.
• [b>Failure Detection Lag: [/b> Failed breakout requires 3+ bars to confirm. By the time system signals reversal, price may have already moved significantly back inside range. Manual traders watching in real-time can enter earlier.
• [b>Extension Overshoot: [/b> System projects extensions mathematically (1.5x, 2.0x, etc.). Actual moves may stop short (1.3x) or overshoot (2.2x). Extensions are targets, not magnets.
• [b>Day Type Misclassification: [/b> Early in session, day type is "Developing." By the time it's classified definitively (often 11:00 AM+), half the day is over. Strategy adjustments happen late.
• [b>Gap Assumptions: [/b> System assumes gaps want to fill. Strong trend days never fill gaps (gap becomes support/resistance forever). Blindly trading toward gaps can backfire on trend days.
• [b>Volume Data Quality: Forex doesn't have centralized volume (uses tick volume as proxy—less reliable). Crypto volume is often fake (wash trading). Volume confirmation less effective on these instruments.
• [b>Multi-Session Complexity: [/b> When using Asian/London/NY ORBs simultaneously, chart becomes cluttered. Requires discipline to focus on relevant session for current time.
[b>Risk Factors: [/b>
• [b>Opening Gaps: Large gaps (>2%) can create distorted ORBs. Opening range might be unusually wide or narrow, making extensions unreliable.
• [b>Low Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX <12, opening ranges can be tiny (0.2-0.3%). Extensions are equally tiny. Profit targets don't justify commission/slippage.
• [b>High Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX >30, opening ranges are huge (2-3%+). Extensions project unrealistic targets. Failed breakouts happen faster (volatility whipsaw).
• [b>Algorithm Dominance:[/b> In heavily algorithmic markets (ES during overnight session), ORB levels can be manipulated—algos pin price to ORB high/low intentionally. Breakouts become stop-runs rather than genuine directional moves.
[b>⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE[/b>
Trading futures, stocks, options, forex, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Opening Range Breakout strategies, while based on sound market structure principles, do not guarantee profits and can result in significant losses.
The ORB Fusion indicator implements professional trading concepts including Opening Range theory, Market Profile Initial Balance analysis, Fibonacci extensions, and failed breakout reversal logic. These methodologies have theoretical foundations but past performance—whether backtested or live—is not indicative of future results.
Opening Range theory assumes the first 30-60 minutes of trading establish a meaningful value area and that breakouts from this range signal directional conviction. This assumption may not hold during:
• Major news events (FOMC, NFP, earnings surprises)
• Market structure changes (circuit breakers, trading halts)
• Low liquidity periods (holidays, early closures)
• Algorithmic manipulation or spoofing
Failed breakout detection relies on patterns of trapped participant behavior. While historically these patterns have shown statistical edges, market conditions change. Institutional algorithms, changing market structure, or regime shifts can reduce or eliminate edges that existed historically.
Initial Balance classification (trend day vs rotation day vs normal day) is a heuristic framework, not a deterministic prediction. Day type can change mid-session. Early classification may prove incorrect as the day develops.
Extension projections (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, etc.) are probabilistic targets derived from Fibonacci ratios and empirical market behavior. They are not "support and resistance levels" that price must reach or respect. Markets can stop short of extensions, overshoot them, or ignore them entirely.
Volume confirmation assumes high volume indicates institutional participation and conviction. In algorithmic markets, volume can be artificially high (HFT activity) or artificially low (dark pools, internalization). Volume is a proxy, not a guarantee of conviction.
LTF precision sampling improves ORB accuracy by using 1-minute bars but introduces additional data dependencies. If 1-minute data is unavailable, inaccurate, or delayed, ORB calculations will be incorrect.
The grading system (A+/A/B+/B/C/D) and confidence scores aggregate multiple factors (volume, VWAP, day type, IB expansion, gap context) into a single assessment. This is a mechanical calculation, not artificial intelligence. The system cannot adapt to unprecedented market conditions or events outside its programmed logic.
Real trading involves slippage, commissions, latency, partial fills, and rejected orders not present in indicator calculations. ORB Fusion generates signals at bar close; actual fills occur with delay. Opening range forms during highest volatility (first 30 minutes)—spreads widen, slippage increases. Execution quality significantly impacts realized results.
Statistics tracking (win rates, extension levels reached, day type distribution) is based on historical bars in your lookback window. If lookback is small (<50 bars) or market regime changed, statistics may not represent future probabilities.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, and broker execution environment. Paper trade extensively (100+ trades minimum) before risking capital. Start with micro position sizing (5-10% of intended size) for 50+ trades to validate execution quality matches expectations.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (0.5-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every single trade without exception. Understand that most retail traders lose money—sophisticated indicators do not change this fundamental reality. They systematize analysis but cannot eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, or fitness for any purpose. Users assume full responsibility for all trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these risk disclosures and limitations, and you accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
[b>CLOSING STATEMENT[/b>
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
Opening Range Breakout is not a trick. It's a framework. The first 30-60 minutes reveal where participants believe value lies. Breakouts signal directional conviction. Failures signal trapped participants. Extensions define profit targets. Day types dictate strategy. Failed breakouts create the highest-probability reversals.
ORB Fusion doesn't predict the future—it identifies [b>structure[/b>, detects [b>breakouts[/b>, recognizes [b>failures[/b>, and generates [b>probabilistic trade plans[/b> with defined risk and reward.
The edge is not in the opening range itself. The edge is in recognizing when the market respects structure (follow breakouts) versus when it violates structure (fade breakouts). The edge is in detecting failures faster than discretionary traders. The edge is in systematic classification that prevents catastrophic errors—like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
Most indicators draw lines. ORB Fusion implements a complete institutional trading methodology: Opening Range theory, Market Profile classification, failed breakout intelligence, Fibonacci projections, volume confirmation, gap psychology, and real-time performance tracking.
Whether you're a beginner learning market structure or a professional seeking systematic ORB implementation, this system provides the framework.
"The market's first word is its opening range. Everything after is commentary." — ORB Fusion
Manipulation Candle SystemThis indicator is based on One Candle Scalping Strategy by ProRealAlgos
## **Manipulation Candle System – Simple Explanation**
This indicator helps traders identify **potential market manipulation** during the **US stock market session (New York)** and highlights **key reversal signals**.
---
### **1. Daily ATR (Average True Range)**
* Measures the **average price movement** of the day.
* Helps determine if a move is **normal** or **abnormally large**.
* The indicator calculates **daily ATR** automatically.
* If 15 minute opening candle is more than 25% of Daily ATR, we can call it manipulation is happen .
---
### **2. 15-Minute Opening Candle Box**
* Highlights the **first 15-minute candle** of the US session.
* The box **extends for 2 hours** after the market opens.
* **Color indicates market condition**:
* **Red box** → the opening candle range is bigger than 25% of the daily ATR → potential **manipulation**.
* **Blue box** → the opening candle range is normal → **neutral session**.
* Helps traders visually spot when the market might be trying to **trap traders**.
---
### **3. 5-Minute Reversal Detection**
* Looks for **reversal candle patterns** on the 5-minute chart:
* Bullish engulfing or strong bullish pin → **buy reversal**.
* Bearish engulfing or strong bearish pin → **sell reversal**.
* Only checks during the **US session**, after 15 minute opening candle.
* Helps traders **time entries** in the direction of potential market reversals.
---
### **4. Buy / Sell Signals**
* Shows **triangle markers** on the chart:
* **Green triangle below candle** → buy signal.
* **Red triangle above candle** → sell signal.
* The signal text also indicates:
* `"BUY (Trap Reversal)"` → if the reversal occurs during manipulation.
* `"BUY (Normal Reversal)"` → if the reversal occurs during a neutral session.
* `"SELL (Trap Reversal)"` → if a sell reversal occurs during manipulation.
* `"SELL (Normal Reversal)"` → otherwise.
---
### **5. Info Table**
* Appears at the **top-right** of the chart.
* Shows:
1. Daily ATR value.
2. 15-minute opening candle range.
3. Session condition → `"MANIPULATION"` or `"NEUTRAL"`.
4. Current reversal signal text.
---
### **How a New Trader Can Use It**
1. Look at the **color of the opening box**:
* Red → be cautious, price may trap traders.
* Blue → normal market behavior.
2. Watch for **reversal signals** on the 5-minute chart.
3. Use the **info table** to confirm ATR, session bias, and signals.
4. Combine this with **risk management** before entering trades.
Smart Money Swing Strategy [All-in-One]# Pro Swing Trader 📈
A comprehensive swing trading indicator for TradingView that combines multiple confluence factors to identify high-probability trade setups with built-in risk management.
## 🎯 Overview
This indicator is designed for swing traders who want to catch momentum pullbacks with precision entries. It filters trades using multiple timeframe analysis, RSI zones, volume confirmation, and EMA trends to deliver only the highest-confidence setups.
### Key Features
✅ **Multi-Timeframe Confluence** - Confirms trades with higher timeframe analysis (Daily, 4H, etc.)
✅ **Smart Entry Signals** - Detects pullback-to-EMA reclaim patterns
✅ **Automatic Risk Management** - Calculates stops, targets, and R-multiples
✅ **Dynamic Stop Loss** - ATR trailing stop + break-even automation
✅ **Real-Time HUD Dashboard** - Live confluence scoring and trade metrics
✅ **Comprehensive Alerts** - Entry, TP1, TP2, and stop-loss notifications
✅ **Visual Trade Levels** - Clear on-chart stop-loss and take-profit lines
---
## 📊 How It Works
### Signal Logic
The indicator identifies two types of signals:
**Base Signals** (Small triangles):
- Price pulls back between Fast EMA and Slow EMA
- RSI is in the swing zone (40-60 by default)
- Price reclaims the Fast EMA with momentum
- Optional: Volume spike confirmation
**High-Confidence Signals** (Large triangles):
- All base signal criteria met
- Higher timeframe confirms the trend direction
- HTF RSI and slope alignment
- These are your primary trade signals
### Entry Conditions
#### Long Entry (🟢 HC L)
1. Fast EMA > Slow EMA (uptrend)
2. Previous candle closed between the EMAs (pullback)
3. Current candle crosses above and closes above Fast EMA (reclaim)
4. RSI between 40-60 (swing zone)
5. **HTF Confirmation**: Daily/4H price above EMA50, RSI > 50, positive slope
6. Optional: Volume > 1.5x 20-bar average
#### Short Entry (🔻 HC S)
1. Fast EMA < Slow EMA (downtrend)
2. Previous candle closed between the EMAs (pullback)
3. Current candle crosses below and closes below Fast EMA (reclaim)
4. RSI between 40-60 (swing zone)
5. **HTF Confirmation**: Daily/4H price below EMA50, RSI < 50, negative slope
6. Optional: Volume > 1.5x 20-bar average
---
## 🎛️ Settings & Parameters
### Trend Parameters
- **Fast EMA**: Default 20 - Quick trend detection
- **Slow EMA**: Default 50 - Major trend filter
- **Swing Lookback**: Default 10 - Bars to find swing high/low for stops
### RSI Settings
- **RSI Length**: Default 14
- **RSI Min**: Default 40 - Lower bound of swing zone
- **RSI Max**: Default 60 - Upper bound of swing zone
### Risk Management
- **Final TP Risk-Reward (R)**: Default 2.0 - Main profit target multiplier
- **TP1 R Multiple**: Default 1.0 - Partial profit target
- **Use Break-even Stop**: Move stop to entry after 1R profit
- **ATR Trailing Stop**: Dynamic stop based on ATR(14) x 2.0
### Filters
- **Require Volume Spike**: Optional volume confirmation filter
- **Use Higher TF Confirmation**: Enable multi-timeframe analysis
- **Higher TF**: Default "D" (Daily) - Can use 240 (4H), W (Weekly), etc.
---
## 📈 Dashboard (HUD)
The top-center dashboard shows real-time confluence status:
| Column | Meaning |
|--------|---------|
| **Trend** | Current trend direction (UP/DOWN/Flat) |
| **HTF** | Higher timeframe alignment (Bull/Bear/Flat) |
| **RSI Zone** | Is RSI in swing zone? (YES/NO) |
| **Volume** | Volume spike detected? (YES/NO) |
| **Signal** | Active signal type (HC LONG/HC SHORT/None) |
| **R Risk** | Current profit in R-multiples |
| **Stop** | Current stop-loss level |
| **TP1** | Partial take-profit status |
| **TP2** | Final take-profit status |
| **Conf %** | Overall confluence score (0-100%) |
### Confidence Score Breakdown
- **20%** - Trend present (up or down)
- **30%** - HTF confirmation aligned (or 15% if HTF off)
- **20%** - RSI in swing zone
- **10%** - Volume spike
- **20%** - High-confidence signal triggered
**Scoring**:
- 🟢 70%+ = High probability setup
- 🟡 40-69% = Moderate setup
- 🔴 <40% = Low probability
---
## 🔔 Alert Setup
The indicator includes 8 alert conditions:
### Entry Alerts
- **HC LONG ENTRY** - High-confidence long signal triggered
- **HC SHORT ENTRY** - High-confidence short signal triggered
### Profit Target Alerts
- **LONG TP1 Reached** - Hit partial profit (1R by default)
- **LONG Final TP Reached** - Hit final target (2R by default)
- **SHORT TP1 Reached** - Hit partial profit
- **SHORT Final TP Reached** - Hit final target
### Stop Loss Alerts
- **LONG Stop/BE/Trail Level Hit** - Long position stopped out
- **SHORT Stop/BE/Trail Level Hit** - Short position stopped out
### How to Set Up Alerts
1. Click "Add Alert" on TradingView
2. Choose this indicator from the dropdown
3. Select desired alert condition
4. Set alert to trigger "Once Per Bar Close"
5. Customize notification method (popup/email/webhook)
---
## 📋 Trading Workflow
### 1. Wait for High-Confidence Signal
Look for the large **HC L** or **HC S** triangle on chart close.
### 2. Verify Confluence
Check the HUD dashboard:
- Confidence score should be 70%+
- HTF status should show alignment
- RSI Zone should be "YES"
### 3. Entry
Enter the trade at market or on next candle open.
### 4. Set Stop Loss
Use the **initial stop** shown in the HUD (red line on chart):
- **Longs**: Below the swing low (10-bar lookback)
- **Shorts**: Above the swing high (10-bar lookback)
### 5. Set Take Profits
- **TP1**: 1R (50% position close) - Yellow line
- **TP2**: 2R (remaining 50% close) - Green line
### 6. Manage the Trade
- Monitor the **R Risk** column to track profit
- Stop moves to break-even automatically after 1R (if enabled)
- ATR trailing stop engages dynamically (red line adjusts)
- Exit if price hits dynamic stop level
---
## 🎨 Visual Guide
### On-Chart Elements
**Triangles**:
- Small lime/red triangles = Base signals (lower confidence)
- Large lime/red triangles = High-confidence signals (trade these!)
**Lines**:
- 🟢 Green line = Fast EMA (20)
- 🟠 Orange line = Slow EMA (50)
- 🔴 Red line = Dynamic stop-loss level
- 🟡 Yellow line = TP1 level
- 🟢 Green line = TP2 (final target)
**HUD Colors**:
- 🟢 Green = Bullish/Active/Good
- 🔴 Red = Bearish/Inactive/Warning
- 🟡 Yellow = Neutral/Caution
- 🔵 Blue = Informational
- ⚫ Gray = Disabled/Off
---
## 💡 Strategy Tips
### Best Practices
1. **Only trade High-Confidence signals** - Ignore base signals unless very experienced
2. **Respect the HTF** - Don't fight the higher timeframe trend
3. **Use proper position sizing** - Risk 1-2% of account per trade
4. **Partial profits work** - Take 50% off at TP1, let rest run to TP2
5. **Let winners run** - Trailing stop helps capture extended moves
6. **Be patient** - Quality over quantity; wait for 70%+ confluence
### Optimal Timeframes
- **Primary Chart**: 1H, 4H, Daily (swing trading)
- **HTF Setting**: One level higher than your chart
- If trading 1H → Set HTF to 4H or D
- If trading 4H → Set HTF to D or W
- If trading Daily → Set HTF to W
### Market Conditions
**Best Performance**:
- Trending markets with healthy pullbacks
- Clear support/resistance zones
- Moderate volatility
**Avoid Trading**:
- Extremely choppy/sideways markets
- Major news events (unless experienced)
- Low confidence scores (<40%)
---
## ⚙️ Advanced Customization
### Aggressive Setup (More Signals)
```
Fast EMA: 12
Slow EMA: 26
RSI Min: 35
RSI Max: 65
Use HTF Confirmation: OFF
Require Volume Spike: OFF
```
### Conservative Setup (Fewer, Higher Quality)
```
Fast EMA: 20
Slow EMA: 50
RSI Min: 45
RSI Max: 55
Use HTF Confirmation: ON
Require Volume Spike: ON
Final TP R: 3.0
```
### Scalping Adaptation (Not Recommended)
```
Fast EMA: 9
Slow EMA: 21
Swing Lookback: 5
TP1 R: 0.5
Final TP R: 1.0
```
---
## ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
**IMPORTANT**: This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- No indicator is 100% accurate
- Always use proper risk management
- Never risk more than you can afford to lose
- Consider using a demo account first
- Seek professional financial advice if needed
Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
---
## 🔧 Troubleshooting
### "No signals appearing"
- Check if HTF confirmation is enabled but market isn't aligned
- Verify RSI zone isn't too restrictive
- Ensure volume spike isn't filtering out all setups
- Try adjusting EMA lengths for your asset
### "Too many false signals"
- Enable HTF confirmation
- Tighten RSI zone (e.g., 45-55)
- Enable volume spike requirement
- Only trade 70%+ confidence setups
### "Stops too tight/wide"
- Adjust Swing Lookback length
- Modify ATR multiplier for trailing stop
- Consider the asset's volatility
### "Alerts not working"
- Ensure alert is set to "Once Per Bar Close"
- Check indicator is added to the chart
- Verify TradingView notification settings
---
## 📚 Version History
**v1.0 (Current)**
- Initial release
- Multi-timeframe confluence system
- Dynamic risk management
- Real-time HUD dashboard
- Comprehensive alert system
- ATR trailing stops
- Break-even automation
---
## 🤝 Support & Feedback
If you find this indicator helpful:
- ⭐ Star the script on TradingView
- 💬 Share your results and feedback
- 🐛 Report bugs or suggest improvements
- 📖 Share with other traders
---
## 📖 Additional Resources
### Recommended Reading
- "The New Trading for a Living" by Dr. Alexander Elder
- "Swing Trading Using Multiple Timeframes" - Educational articles
- Risk management and position sizing guides
### Learn More About
- Multiple timeframe analysis
- EMA crossover strategies
- RSI divergence and zones
- ATR-based stops
- R-multiple profit management
---
## 📝 License
This indicator is provided as-is for personal trading use.
**Usage Rights**:
- ✅ Use for personal trading
- ✅ Modify for personal use
- ❌ Resell or redistribute
- ❌ Claim as original work
---
## 🎓 Quick Start Checklist
- Add indicator to TradingView chart
- Set your preferred timeframe (1H/4H/Daily)
- Configure HTF setting (one level higher)
- Review default parameters
- Set up entry alerts (HC LONG/SHORT)
- Set up TP and SL alerts
- Test on historical data
- Paper trade first
- Start with small position sizes
- Track your results
---
**Happy Trading! 📊💰**
*Remember: Discipline, patience, and risk management are the keys to long-term success.*
Previous Day Week Month Highs & Lows [MHA Finverse]Previous Day Week Month Highs & Lows is a comprehensive multi-timeframe indicator that automatically plots previous period highs and lows across Daily, Weekly, Monthly, 4-Hour, and 8-Hour timeframes. Perfect for identifying key support and resistance levels that often act as magnets for price action.
How It Works
The indicator retrieves the highest high and lowest low from the previous completed period for each selected timeframe. Lines extend forward into current price action, allowing you to see when price approaches or breaks these critical levels in real-time. The indicator tracks the exact bar where each high and low occurred, ensuring accurate historical placement.
---
Key Features
Multi-Timeframe Levels:
• Current Daily, Previous Daily, 4H, 8H, Weekly, and Monthly highs/lows
• Fully customizable colors and line styles (Solid, Dashed, Dotted)
• Adjustable line width and extension length
Visual Enhancements:
• Price labels showing exact level values
• Range position percentage (distance from high/low)
• Optional period boxes highlighting timeframe ranges
• Day and date labels for reference
Trading Tools:
• Breakout markers when price crosses key levels
• Touch count tracking (how many times price tested each level)
• Time at level display (consolidation detection)
• Customizable thresholds for touch and time analysis
Alert System:
• Individual alerts for each timeframe: Daily High/Low Break, 4H High/Low Break, 8H High/Low Break, Weekly High/Low Break, Monthly High/Low Break
• Toggle switches to enable/disable alerts per timeframe
• Clear messages showing which level was broken and at what price
---
How to Use
Setup:
1. Enable your preferred timeframes in "Highs & Lows MTF" settings
2. Customize colors and styles to match your chart
3. Turn on visual features like price labels and range percentages
4. Set up alerts by creating specific alert conditions or using toggle switches
Trading Applications:
Breakout Trading: Watch for strong momentum when price breaks above previous highs or below previous lows
Support/Resistance: Use these levels as potential reversal points for entry/exit signals
Range Trading: Trade between previous highs and lows using the range position indicator
Stop Loss Placement: Place stops just beyond previous highs (shorts) or lows (longs)
Multiple Timeframe Confirmation: Combine timeframes for stronger signals (e.g., Daily near Weekly support)
---
Best Practices
• Use Weekly/Monthly for swing trading, Daily/4H/8H for day trading
• Combine with volume or momentum indicators for confirmation
• Multiple timeframe levels clustering together create high-probability zones
• The more touches a level has, the more significant it becomes
---
Disclaimer
This indicator is a technical analysis tool for identifying price levels based on historical data. It does not guarantee profits or predict future movements. Trading involves substantial risk. Always use proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Trinity ATR Real Move DetectorTrinity ATR Real Move Detector
This ATR Energy Table indicator is one of the simplest yet most powerful filters you can have on a chart when trading short-dated or 0DTE options or swing trades on any timeframe from 1-minute up to 4-hour. Its entire job is to answer the single most important question in intraday and swing trading: “Does the underlying actually have enough short-term explosive energy right now to make a directional position worth the theta and the spread, or is this just pretty candles that will die in ten minutes?”
Most losing 0DTE and short-dated option trades happen because people buy or sell direction on a “nice-looking” breakout or pullback while the underlying is actually in low-energy grind mode. The premium decays faster than the move develops, and you lose even when you’re “right” on direction. This little table stops that from ever happening again.
Here’s what it does in plain English:
Every bar it measures two things:
- The current ATR on whatever timeframe you are using (1 min, 3 min, 5 min, 10 min, etc.). This tells you how big the average true range of the last 14 bars has been — in other words, how violently the stock or index is actually moving right now.
- The daily ATR (14-period on the daily chart). This is your benchmark for “normal” daily movement over the last two–three weeks.
It then multiplies the daily ATR by a small number (the multiplier you set) and compares the two. If the short-term ATR is bigger than that percentage of the daily ATR, the table turns bright green and says “ENOUGH ENERGY”. If not, it stays red and says “NOT ENOUGH”.
Why this works so well:
- Real explosive moves that carry for 0DTE and 1–3 DTE options almost always show a short-term ATR spike well above the recent daily average. Quiet grind moves never do.
- The comparison is completely adaptive — on a high-vol day the threshold automatically rises, on a low-vol day it automatically drops. You never have to guess if “2 points on SPY is big today”.
- It removes emotion completely. You simply wait for green before you even think about clicking buy or sell on an option.
Key settings and what to do with them:
- Energy Multiplier — this is the only number you ever touch. It is expressed as a decimal (0.15 = 15 % of the daily ATR). Lower = more signals, higher = stricter and higher win rate. The tooltip gives you the exact sweet-spot numbers for every popular timeframe (0.09 for 1-minute scalping, 0.13 for 3-minute, 0.14–0.16 for 5-minute, 0.15–0.19 for 10-minute, etc.). Just pick your timeframe once and type the number — done forever.
- ATR Length — leave it at 14. That’s the standard and works perfectly.
- Table Position — move the table to wherever you want on the chart (top-right, bottom-right, bottom-left, top-left).
- Table Size — make the text Tiny, Small, Normal or Large depending on how much screen space you have.
How this helps you make money and stop losing it:
- On most days you will see red 80–90 % of the time — that’s good! It is forcing you to sit on your hands instead of overtrading low-energy chop that eats premium.
- When it finally flips green you know institutions are actually pushing size right now — follow-through probability jumps from ~40 % to 65–75 % depending on the stock and timeframe.
- You stop buying calls on every green candle and puts on every red candle. You only strike when the market is genuinely “awake”.
- Over a week you take dramatically fewer trades, but your win rate and average winner size go way up — which is exactly how consistent intraday option profits are made.
In short, this tiny table is the closest thing to an “edge on/off switch” that exists for short-dated options. Red = preserve capital and go do something else. Green = pull the trigger with confidence. Use it religiously and you’ll immediately feel the difference in your P&L.
Session Sweep System – WarRoomXYZ V1WarRoom Session Sweep System v1 is a open-source institutional trading framework built to identify liquidity behavior across Asia, London, and New York sessions.
It combines session-based liquidity mapping, sweep detection, daily expansion modeling, and trend confirmation into a unified, timing-driven system optimized for XAUUSD, FX pairs, indices, and any instrument with session-dependent volatility.
This tool does not attempt to predict direction with arbitrary oscillators.
Instead, it focuses on the underlying market mechanisms that drive price:
liquidity, timing, expansion, and trend alignment.
Below is a detailed explanation of what the script does, how its components work, and how traders can use it effectively.
🔹 1. Session Liquidity Mapping
The script automatically identifies the Asia (00:00–06:00 GMT), London (07:00–12:00 GMT), and New York (13:00–17:00 GMT) sessions and builds real-time session ranges.
Each session creates a liquidity pool.
Trading institutions frequently sweep the high or low of one session before delivering the real move in the next session.
This script captures that behavior by:
►Drawing session range boxes
►Tracking previous session highs/lows
►Highlighting high-probability sweep locations
These ranges are essential reference points for timing entries and exits.
🔹 2. Liquidity Sweep Detection (Buy & Sell Sweeps)
The indicator identifies when price runs a previous session high/low and rejects back inside the range, which is commonly interpreted as a liquidity sweep.
The following sweep types are monitored:
►London sweeping Asia
►New York sweeping London
►Asia sweeping New York
►Daily sweep of PDH/PDL
Sweeps signal that liquidity has been collected and that a potential reversal or continuation is likely.
These are marked clearly on the chart for real-time decision-making.
🔹 3. Killzone Timing Model (GMT Time)
Market manipulation and expansion often occur during specific time windows.
The script highlights these institutional killzones:
►London Killzone: 07:00–10:00 GMT
►New York Killzone: 13:30–15:30 GMT
►NY PM Session: 19:00–21:00 GMT
Sweeps occurring inside these windows carry a significantly higher probability.
The timing layer helps filter out low-quality setups.
🔹 4. Daily Range & ADR Expansion Engine
A dedicated panel displays:
►Current day range
►ADR (Average Daily Range)
►Expansion stage (Early / Developed / Extended)
►PDH/PDL swept or intact
►Overall session bias
This allows traders to understand whether the daily move is likely to continue or reverse.
For example:
►Early expansion → trend continuation likely
►Extended expansion → reversal setups become more probable
This is useful for intraday targets and risk management.
🔹 5. MA Cloud Trend Model (Fast/Slow Structure)
To align liquidity behavior with directional conviction, the script includes a configurable MA engine:
►Fast & slow MA
►MA cloud
►Slope-based trend coloring
►Trend background
►MA cross alerts
The cloud provides trend confirmation without relying on oscillators.
Trades are higher quality when the sweep direction aligns with the MA trend.
🔹 6. How the Components Work Together
The script integrates several institutional concepts into one coherent model:
►Sessions define liquidity pools
►Sweeps identify stop-hunts and reversals
►Killzones define optimal timing
►MA Cloud confirms directional bias
►ADR engine indicates expansion potential
This creates a structured framework:
Sweep → Timing → Trend → Expansion → Execution
Each component strengthens the others, forming a robust decision-making model.
🔹 7. How to Use the Indicator (Practical Guide)
✔ Look for a sweep of a previous session level
When price runs a session high/low and closes back inside, liquidity has likely been collected.
✔ Confirm timing
Sweeps inside London or NY killzones tend to produce the strongest moves.
✔ Confirm trend
Use MA cloud direction and slope:
►Cloud green → long setups preferred
►Cloud red → short setups preferred
✔ Check ADR panel
If the day has already expanded significantly, reversal setups are more likely.
If expansion is still early, continuation setups are favored.
✔ Plan your trade
Common targets include:
►Opposite side of session range
►ADR High/Low
►PDH/PDL
Stops are typically placed beyond the sweep wick.
This creates a repeatable, rule-based approach to intraday liquidity trading.
🔹 8. Why This Script Is Original
This is not a mashup of existing open-source indicators.
It introduces:
►A custom session-linked liquidity sweep engine
►A structured daily expansion model
►Integrated killzone timing aligned with GMT
►A unified bias panel merging sweeps, ADR, and session manipulation
►A trend confirmation layer designed around session behavior
While it uses known institutional concepts, their integration, execution, and timing framework are unique, purpose-built, and not directly found in open-source scripts.
🔹 9. Suitable Markets
This indicator works best on:
►XAUUSD
►Major FX pairs
►US indices
►Synthetic markets with session cycles
Ideal timeframes: 1m, 5m, 15m, 30m
🔹 10. Limitations / Notes
This is an analytical tool, not a buy/sell signal generator
All sweeps are confirmed at candle close (non-repaint)
The tool assumes GMT session windows unless chart time differs
Users must practice risk management and entry triggers manually
Disclaimer
This script is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not provide financial, investment, or trading advice, and it does not guarantee profits or future performance. All decisions made based on this script are solely the responsibility of the user.
This script does not execute trades, manage risk, or replace the need for trader discretion. Market behavior can change quickly, and past behavior detected by the script does not ensure similar future outcomes.
Users should test the script on demo or simulation environments before applying it to live markets and must maintain full responsibility for their own risk management, position sizing, and trade execution.
Trading involves risk, and losses can exceed deposits. By using this script, you acknowledge that you understand and accept all associated risks.
ShooterViz Lazy Trader EMA SystemShooterViz Lazy Trader EMA System - Complete User Guide
What This Script Does
This is a position scaling indicator that tells you exactly when to enter, add to, and exit trades using a simplified 5-EMA system. It removes the guesswork and decision fatigue from trading by giving you clear visual signals.
The Core Concept
3 entry signals that build your position from 20% → 50% → 100%
2 exit signals that scale you out at 50% → 50% (complete exit)
1 higher timeframe filter that keeps you on the right side of the trend
No Fibonacci calculations, no RSI divergence, no multi-indicator confusion. Just EMAs and price action.
What You'll See On Your Chart
1. Colored EMA Lines
Blue Lines (Entry Zone):
3 EMA (lightest blue) - Early reversal detector
5 EMA (darker blue) - Confirmation line
Green Lines (Add Zone):
21 EMA (bright green) - First add location
34 EMA (lighter green) - Final add location
Red Lines (Exit Zone):
89 EMA (lighter red) - First exit trigger
144 EMA (darker red) - Final exit trigger
Orange Lines (Hyper Frame - optional):
Hyper 21 EMA (from higher timeframe) - Trend direction
Hyper 34 EMA (from higher timeframe) - Bias confirmation
2. Triangle Signals
Green Triangles (Below Price) = BUY/ADD:
Lime triangle with "20%" = Entry 1: Price reclaimed 3→5 EMA (starter position)
Green triangle with "30%" = Entry 2: Price bounced off 21 EMA (first add)
Teal triangle with "50%" = Entry 3: Price broke out from 34 EMA compression (final add)
Red Triangles (Above Price) = SELL:
Orange triangle with "50% OFF" = Exit 1: Price broke below 89 EMA (take half off)
Red triangle with "EXIT ALL" = Exit 2: Price broke below 144 EMA (close remaining position)
3. Background Color (Trend Bias)
Light green background = Hyper frame EMAs trending up (bias LONG)
Light red background = Hyper frame EMAs trending down (bias SHORT)
Gray background = Neutral/choppy (be cautious)
4. Info Table (Top Right Corner)
A live status dashboard showing:
Which entry signals are currently active (✓ or —)
Which exit signals are currently active (⚠ or ⛔)
Current hyper frame bias (🟢 LONG / 🔴 SHORT / ⚪ NEUTRAL)
Which timeframe you're using for hyper frame filtering
How to Install and Set Up
Step 1: Add the Script to TradingView
Open TradingView
Click "Pine Editor" at the bottom of the screen
Copy the entire script code
Paste it into the Pine Editor
Click "Add to Chart"
Step 2: Configure Your Settings
Click the gear icon ⚙️ next to "LazyEMA" in your indicators list.
Critical Settings to Configure:
Hyper Frame Selection (Most Important!)
Location: "Hyper Frame (Pick ONE)" section
Setting: "Timeframe"
What to choose:
Trading 15min or 1H charts? → Use "240" (4-hour)
Trading 4H or Daily charts? → Use "D" (Daily)
Trading Daily or Weekly charts? → Use "W" (Weekly)
Why this matters: This filter keeps you aligned with the bigger trend. Only take longs when this timeframe is green, shorts when it's red.
MA Type (Optional, default is fine)
Location: "MA Config" section
Default: EMA (recommended)
Options: EMA, SMA, WMA, HMA, RMA, VWMA
Most traders should stick with EMA
Visual Toggles (Customize your view)
Entry Zone: Turn individual EMAs on/off (3, 5, 21, 34)
Exit Zone: Turn individual EMAs on/off (89, 144)
Hyper Frame: Toggle the higher timeframe EMAs on/off
Step 3: Clean Up Your Chart
Turn OFF these if visible:
Volume bars (they clutter the view)
Any other indicators you have loaded
Grid lines (optional, but cleaner)
Keep ONLY:
Price candles
Your ShooterViz Lazy Trader EMA System
Maybe support/resistance levels if you manually draw them
How to Trade With This Script
The Basic Workflow
Before the Market Opens:
Check the background color and info table bias
Green background? Look for LONG setups only
Red background? Look for SHORT setups only
Gray background? Stay flat or trade small
During the Trading Session:
LONGS (When hyper frame is bullish):
Wait for Entry 1 signal:
Lime triangle appears with "20%"
Price has reclaimed the 5 EMA after dipping to 3 EMA
Action: Enter 20% of your intended position
Stop loss: Place below the 5 EMA or recent swing low
Wait for Entry 2 signal:
Green triangle appears with "30%"
Price pulled back to 21 EMA and bounced
Action: Add 30% more (you're now at 50% total)
Move stop: Trail it up to below 21 EMA
Wait for Entry 3 signal:
Teal triangle appears with "50%"
Price compressed at 34 EMA and broke out
Action: Add final 50% (you're now 100% loaded)
Move stop: Trail it up to below 34 EMA
Wait for Exit 1 signal:
Orange triangle appears with "50% OFF"
Price broke below 89 EMA
Action: Exit 50% of your position immediately
Move stop on rest: Trail to 89 EMA or lock in profits
Wait for Exit 2 signal:
Red triangle appears with "EXIT ALL"
Price broke below 144 EMA
Action: Exit remaining 50% (you're now flat)
Or: Stop gets hit at 89 EMA (same result)
SHORTS (When hyper frame is bearish):
Same process, but inverted
Triangles appear above price instead of below
Look for breakdowns below EMAs instead of bounces off them
Exit when price reclaims 89 and 144 EMAs
Real-World Example Walkthrough
Setup: Trading ES (S&P 500 Futures) on 1H Chart
Chart Configuration:
Timeframe: 1 Hour
Hyper Frame: 240 (4-hour)
Ticker: ES
Pre-Market Check:
Background is light green
Info table shows "🟢 LONG" for Hyper Bias
Decision: Only look for long entries today
9:30 AM - Market Opens
Price dips and touches 3 EMA
Watch for: Reclaim of 5 EMA
9:45 AM - Entry 1 Triggers
Lime triangle appears below bar
Price closed above 5 EMA at $4,550
Action taken:
Enter long 20% position (2 contracts if targeting 10 total)
Stop loss at $4,545 (below 5 EMA)
Risk: $10 per contract × 2 = $20 risk
10:30 AM - Entry 2 Triggers
Price rallied to $4,565, pulls back
Green triangle appears at 21 EMA ($4,555)
Action taken:
Add 30% (3 more contracts, now have 5 total)
Move stop to $4,550 (below 21 EMA)
Current P/L: +$25 ($5 gain on original 2 contracts, break-even on new 3)
11:15 AM - Entry 3 Triggers
Price consolidates at 34 EMA around $4,560
Teal triangle appears as price breaks to $4,568
Action taken:
Add final 50% (5 more contracts, now have 10 total)
Move stop to $4,555 (below 34 EMA)
Current P/L: +$70
1:00 PM - Price Extends
Price rallies to $4,595 (on track)
89 EMA is at $4,575
No action yet, let it run
2:15 PM - Exit 1 Triggers
Price pulls back from $4,600
Orange triangle appears as price breaks below 89 EMA at $4,580
Action taken:
Exit 50% (5 contracts closed at $4,580)
Keep 5 contracts with stop at 89 EMA ($4,575)
Banked: +$150 average gain on closed 5 contracts
2:45 PM - Exit 2 Triggers
Price continues down
Red triangle appears as price breaks 144 EMA at $4,570
Action taken:
Exit remaining 5 contracts at $4,570
Banked: +$100 on remaining 5 contracts
Final Results:
Total gain: $250 on the trade
Initial risk: $50 (if stopped out at Entry 1)
Risk/Reward: 5:1
Time in trade: ~5 hours
Common Questions
"What if I miss Entry 1? Can I still take Entry 2?"
Yes! Each entry is independent. If you miss the 3→5 reclaim, wait for the 21 EMA bounce. You'll start with a 30% position instead of 20%, but that's fine.
Rule: Never chase. Wait for the next EMA setup.
"What if multiple entry signals trigger at the same bar?"
Rare, but possible. If you see both Entry 1 and Entry 2 trigger together:
Take Entry 1 first (20%)
If the next bar confirms Entry 2 is still valid, add 30%
When in doubt, scale in gradually
"The hyper frame is green but I'm seeing short signals?"
Don't take them. The hyper frame is your bias filter. If it says "go long," ignore short setups. They're usually lower probability and will get stopped out.
"Can I use this for swing trading overnight?"
Absolutely. Just switch your hyper frame:
If you're on Daily charts, use Weekly hyper frame
If you're on 4H charts, use Daily hyper frame
Adjust position sizes for overnight risk
"What if the signal appears right at market close?"
Don't chase it. Wait for the next bar (next day) to confirm. Signals that appear in the last 5 minutes are often noise.
"How do I set up alerts?"
Right-click on the chart
Select "Add Alert"
Choose "LazyEMA" from the condition dropdown
Select which signal you want alerts for:
Entry 1: 3→5 Reclaim
Entry 2: 21 EMA Add
Entry 3: 34 EMA Breakout
Exit 1: 89 EMA Break
Exit 2: 144 EMA Break
Click "Create"
Pro tip: Set up all 5 alerts so you never miss a signal.
Position Sizing Guide see
swingtradenotes.substack.com
Critical Rule: Know your total risk BEFORE you take Entry 1. Don't wing it.
Customization Tips
For Day Traders (Scalpers)
Use 5min or 15min charts
Hyper frame: 1H or 4H
Expect 2-4 setups per day
Tighter stops (0.5% risk per entry)
For Swing Traders
Use 4H or Daily charts
Hyper frame: Daily or Weekly
Expect 1-2 setups per week
Wider stops (1-2% risk per entry)
For Position Traders
Use Daily or Weekly charts
Hyper frame: Weekly or Monthly
Expect 1-2 setups per month
Widest stops (2-3% risk per entry)
The "Don't Be Stupid" Checklist
Before taking ANY signal from this script, ask:
✅ Is the hyper frame bias pointing in my direction?
✅ Is the signal clean (not at a weird time or during news)?
✅ Do I know my stop loss level?
✅ Do I know my position size?
✅ Can I afford to lose if this trade fails?
If you answered "no" to ANY of these, skip the trade.
Troubleshooting
"I'm not seeing any signals"
Possible causes:
The "Show Lazy Trader System" toggle is off (turn it on)
Your chart timeframe is too high (try 1H or 4H)
Market is in a tight range (EMAs are compressed)
You need to refresh the chart
"Too many signals, getting whipsawed"
Fixes:
Increase your chart timeframe (go from 15m to 1H)
Switch to a less volatile ticker
Only trade when hyper frame bias is STRONG (not neutral)
Add a minimum bar count between signals
"The info table is covering my price action"
Fix:
Edit the script
Find the line: table.new(position.top_right, ...
Change position.top_right to position.bottom_right or position.top_left
"Signals appear then disappear"
This is normal (repainting). Some signals (especially compression breakouts) can disappear if the next bar reverses. This is why you:
Wait for bar close before acting
Use alerts that only fire on confirmed bars
Don't chase signals mid-bar
Final Thoughts
This script is a decision-making tool, not a crystal ball. It shows you high-probability setups based on EMA dynamics and trend structure. You still need to:
Manage your risk
Choose your position size
Stick to the rules
Accept losses when they happen
The system works when YOU work the system.
Print this guide, tape it next to your monitor, and follow it religiously for 20 trades before making ANY changes.
Good luck, and stay lazy (the smart way).
Luxy VWAP Magic - MTF Projection EngineThis indicator transforms the classic VWAP into a comprehensive trading system. Instead of switching between multiple indicators, you get everything in one place: multi-timeframe analysis, statistical bands, momentum detection, volume profiling, session tracking, and divergence signals.
What Makes This Different
Traditional VWAP indicators show a single line. This tool treats VWAP as a foundation for complete market analysis. The indicator automatically detects your asset type (stocks, crypto, forex, futures) and adjusts its behavior accordingly. Crypto traders get 24/7 session tracking. Stock traders get proper market hours handling. Everyone gets institutional-grade analytics.
Anchor Period Options
The anchor period determines when VWAP resets and recalculates. You have three categories of options:
Time-Based Anchors:
Session - Resets at market open. Best for intraday stock trading where you want fresh VWAP each day.
Day - Resets at midnight UTC. Standard option for most traders.
Week / Month / Quarter / Year - Longer reset periods for swing traders and position traders who want broader context.
Rolling Window Anchors:
Rolling 5D - A sliding 5-day window that never resets. Solves the Monday problem where weekly VWAP equals daily VWAP on first day of week.
Rolling 21D - Approximately one month of trading data in continuous calculation. Excellent for crypto and forex markets that trade 24/7 without clear session breaks.
Event-Based Anchors:
Dividends - Resets on ex-dividend dates. Track institutional cost basis from dividend events.
Splits - Resets on stock split dates. Useful for analyzing post-split trading behavior.
Earnings - Resets on earnings report dates. See where volume-weighted trading occurred since last quarterly report.
Standard Deviation Bands
Three sets of bands surround the main VWAP line:
Band 1 (Aqua) - Plus and minus one standard deviation. Approximately 68% of price action occurs within this range under normal distribution. Touches suggest minor extension.
Band 2 (Fuchsia) - Plus and minus two standard deviations. Only 5% of trading should occur outside this range statistically. Touches here indicate significant overextension and high probability of mean reversion.
Band 3 (Purple) - Plus and minus three standard deviations. Touches are rare (0.3% probability) and represent extreme conditions. Often marks climax moves or panic selling/buying.
Each band can be toggled independently. Most traders show Band 1 by default and add Band 2 and 3 for specific setups or volatile instruments.
Multi-Timeframe VWAP System
The MTF section plots previous period VWAPs as horizontal support and resistance levels:
Daily VWAP - Previous day's final VWAP value. Key intraday reference level.
Weekly VWAP - Previous week's final VWAP. Important for swing traders.
Monthly VWAP - Previous month's final VWAP. Institutional benchmark level.
Quarterly VWAP - Previous quarter's final VWAP. Major support/resistance for position traders.
Previous Day VWAP - Yesterday's closing VWAP specifically, separate from current daily calculation.
The Confluence Zone percentage setting determines how close multiple VWAPs must be to trigger a confluence alert. When two or more timeframe VWAPs converge within this threshold, you get a high-probability support/resistance zone.
Session VWAPs for Global Markets
For forex, crypto, and futures traders who operate in 24/7 markets, the indicator tracks three major global sessions:
Asia Session - UTC 21:00 to 08:00. Gold colored line. Typically lower volatility, range-bound action that sets overnight levels.
London Session - UTC 08:00 to 17:00. Orange colored line. Often determines daily direction with high volume European participation.
New York Session - UTC 13:00 to 22:00. Blue colored line. Highest volume session globally. Sharp directional moves common.
Previous session VWAP values display as horizontal lines when each session closes, acting as intraday support and resistance. The table shows which sessions are currently active with checkmarks.
On-Chart Labels and Signals
The indicator plots several types of labels directly on price action when significant events occur:
Volume Spike Labels
Fire when current bar volume exceeds configurable thresholds relative to both the previous bar and the 20-bar average. Default settings require 300% of previous bar AND 200% of average volume. Green labels indicate bullish candles. Red labels indicate bearish candles. These spikes often mark institutional entry points.
Momentum Shift Labels
Appear when VWAP acceleration changes direction. The Slowing label warns when an active trend loses steam, often preceding reversal. The Accelerating label confirms trend continuation or potential bottom during downtrends. Filters available to show only reversal signals in existing trends.
VWAP Squeeze Labels
Detect when standard deviation bands contract relative to ATR (Average True Range). Low volatility compression often precedes explosive breakout moves. When the squeeze fires (releases), a label appears with directional prediction based on VWAP slope.
Divergence Labels
Mark price/volume divergences using CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) analysis:
Bullish divergence: Price makes lower low, but CVD makes higher low. Hidden accumulation despite price weakness.
Bearish divergence: Price makes higher high, but CVD makes lower high. Hidden distribution despite price strength.
Dynamic VWAP Coloring
The main VWAP line changes color based on its slope direction:
Green - VWAP is rising. Institutional buying pressure. Volume-weighted price increasing.
Red - VWAP is falling. Institutional selling pressure. Volume-weighted price decreasing.
Gray - VWAP is flat. Consolidation or balance between buyers and sellers.
This coloring can be disabled for a static blue line if you prefer cleaner visuals. The VWAP label next to the line shows the current trend direction and delta percentage.
Calculated Projection Cone
One of the most powerful features is the Calculated Projection Cone. Unlike traditional extrapolation methods that simply extend a trend line forward, this system analyzes what actually happened in similar market conditions throughout the chart's history.
How It Works:
The system classifies each bar into one of 27 unique market states:
Z-Score Level - LOW (oversold), MID (fair value), or HIGH (overbought) based on configurable thresholds
Trend Direction - DOWN, FLAT, or UP based on VWAP slope
Volume Profile - LOW (below 80%), NORMAL (80-150%), or HIGH (above 150%) relative volume
When you look at the current bar, the indicator:
1. Identifies the current market state (e.g., LOW Z-Score + UP Trend + HIGH Volume)
2. Searches through all historical bars on the chart that had the same state
3. Calculates what happened in those bars X bars later (where X is your projection horizon)
4. Shows you the probability of up/down and the average move size
Visual Elements:
Probability Cone - Colored green (bullish probability above 55%), red (bearish below 45%), or gold (neutral). The cone width represents the historical range of outcomes (roughly the 20th to 80th percentile).
Center Line - Shows the average expected price based on historical outcomes in similar conditions.
Probability Label - Displays direction probability and average move. Example: "67% UP (+0.8%)" means 67% of similar past cases moved up, averaging 0.8% gain.
Fallback System:
When the exact 27-state match has insufficient historical data:
First fallback: Uses Z-Score plus Trend only (9 broader states, ignoring volume)
Second fallback: Uses Z-Score only (3 states)
When fallback is active, confidence automatically adjusts
Settings:
Projection Horizon - How many bars forward to analyze outcomes (5, 10, 15, or 20 bars, default 10)
Lookback Period - Historical data window in days (30-252, default 60)
Minimum Samples - Cases needed before using fallback (5-30, default 10)
Z-Score Threshold - Bucket boundary for LOW/MID/HIGH classification (1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 sigma)
Cloud Transparency - Adjust visibility (50-95%)
Colors - Customize bullish, bearish, and neutral cone colors
Confidence Levels:
HIGH - 30 or more similar historical cases found
MEDIUM - 15-29 similar cases
LOW - Fewer than 15 cases (more uncertainty)
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
The Calculated Projection is based on past patterns only. It is NOT a price prediction or financial advice. Similar market states in the past do not guarantee similar outcomes in the future. The probability shown is historical frequency, not a guarantee. Always combine with other analysis and never rely solely on projections for trading decisions.
Alert Conditions
The indicator includes over 20 pre-built alert conditions:
Price vs VWAP:
Price crosses above VWAP
Price crosses below VWAP
Band Touches:
Price touches plus or minus one sigma band
Price touches plus or minus two sigma band (extreme)
Price touches plus or minus three sigma band (very extreme)
Z-Score Extremes:
Z-Score crosses above plus two (overbought extreme)
Z-Score crosses below minus two (oversold extreme)
Momentum and Trend:
Momentum slowing
Momentum accelerating
Trend turns bullish/bearish/neutral
Volume:
Volume spike detected
CVD Direction:
Buyers take control
Sellers take control
High Probability Signals:
Bullish reversal signal (oversold plus accelerating momentum)
Bearish reversal signal (overbought plus slowing momentum)
MTF and Special:
MTF confluence zone entry
VWAP squeeze fired
Bullish/Bearish divergence detected
Any significant signal (catch-all)
All signals use confirmed bar data to prevent false alerts from incomplete candles.
Settings Overview
Settings are organized into logical groups:
VWAP Settings
Anchor Period selection
Show/Hide VWAP line
Dynamic coloring toggle
VWAP label visibility
Bands Visibility
Toggle each of three bands independently
Info Table
Show/Hide table
Table position (9 options)
Text size
Volume spike label settings with adjustable thresholds
Momentum label settings with filters
Signal labels limited to 5 most recent (auto-managed)
Probability engine lookback period
Multi-Timeframe VWAP
Enable/Disable MTF system
Show MTF in table
Show MTF lines on chart
Individual timeframe toggles
Confluence zone threshold
Squeeze detection toggle
Session VWAPs
Enable/Disable session tracking
Apply to all assets option
Show session labels
Divergence Detection
Enable/Disable divergence
Pivot lookback period
Show divergence labels
Calculated Projection
Enable/Disable projection cone
Projection horizon (5, 10, 15, or 20 bars)
Lookback period in days (30-252)
Minimum samples threshold
Z-Score classification threshold (1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 sigma)
Cloud transparency adjustment
Bullish, bearish, and neutral colors
The Info Table - Your Trading Dashboard
The right side of your chart displays a compact table with up to twelve metrics.
Row-by-Row Breakdown:
Asset and Period - Shows what the indicator detected (US Stock, Crypto, Forex, etc.) and your selected anchor period. The detection happens automatically based on exchange data, so VWAP resets and calculations match your actual trading instrument.
Delta Percentage - How far current price sits from VWAP, expressed as a percentage. Positive means price trades above fair value. Negative means below. Large delta values (beyond 1-2%) often precede mean reversion moves. Day traders watch this for overextension.
Z-Score - Statistical deviation from VWAP measured in standard deviations. Unlike raw delta, Z-Score accounts for volatility. A 2% move in a volatile biotech stock differs from 2% in a stable utility. Z-Score normalizes this. Values beyond plus or minus two sigma occur only 5% of the time statistically.
Trend Direction - Whether VWAP itself is rising, falling, or flat. Rising VWAP means the volume-weighted average price is increasing, which indicates institutional accumulation. Falling VWAP suggests distribution. This differs from price trend since it weights by volume.
Momentum State - Is the trend accelerating or slowing down? This measures the rate of change in VWAP slope. When an uptrend shows slowing momentum, it often precedes reversal. Accelerating momentum in a downtrend can signal capitulation and potential bottom.
Relative Volume - Current bar volume compared to the 20-bar average, shown as percentage. Values above 150% indicate above-average activity. Spikes above 200-300% often mark institutional involvement. Low volume (below 80%) warns of potential fake moves.
MTF Bias - Four checkmarks or X marks showing whether price sits above or below Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly VWAP. Four checkmarks means strong bullish alignment across all timeframes. Four X marks indicates bearish alignment. Mixed readings suggest consolidation or transition.
Band Probabilities - Historical statistics showing how often price touched each standard deviation band over your lookback period. This helps you understand if mean reversion or trend following works better for your specific instrument.
Session Status - Which global trading sessions are currently active (Asia, London, New York). Shows checkmarks for active sessions. Important for forex and crypto traders who need to know when major liquidity windows open and close.
Divergence State - Whether the indicator detects bullish or bearish divergence between price and cumulative volume delta. Bullish divergence occurs when price makes lower lows but buying pressure (CVD) makes higher lows, suggesting hidden accumulation.
Confidence Score - A weighted composite of all factors displayed as a progress bar and percentage. Combines MTF alignment, Z-Score, trend direction, volume delta, momentum, and relative volume into a single 0-100 score. Higher scores indicate stronger conviction setups.
Calculated Projection - When the Projection Cone is enabled, shows the historical probability of price direction and expected move. For example: "▲ 67% (+0.8%)" means in similar market states historically, price moved up 67% of the time with an average gain of 0.8%. The system analyzes 27 unique market states based on Z-Score, Trend, and Volume conditions.
Recommended Use Cases
Day Trading Stocks:
Use Session anchor with Band 1 visible. Watch for price returning to VWAP after morning move. Volume spikes near VWAP often mark institutional accumulation zones.
Swing Trading:
Use Weekly or Rolling 21D anchor. Enable MTF lines for Daily and Weekly levels. Trade pullbacks to these levels in direction of MTF bias.
Crypto and Forex:
Enable Session VWAPs. Use Rolling anchors to avoid artificial resets. Monitor session transitions for breakout opportunities.
Mean Reversion:
Focus on Z-Score reaching plus or minus two. Add Band 2 visibility. Combine with slowing momentum for highest probability reversals.
Trend Following:
Watch MTF bias alignment. Four checkmarks plus accelerating momentum plus high volume confirms trend continuation setups.
Projection Planning:
Enable the Calculated Projection to see what happened historically in similar market conditions. Use 5-10 bars for intraday setups, 15-20 bars for swing trade planning. Focus on high probability readings (above 60%) with HIGH confidence (30 or more samples). The cone shows the probable range of outcomes based on actual historical data. Combine with other factors like MTF alignment and volume for higher conviction setups.
Important Notes
The indicator does not repaint. MTF values use previous period's confirmed data.
Rolling VWAP works best on 15-minute timeframes and above due to bar lookback requirements.
Session VWAPs apply to global markets by default (forex, crypto, futures). Enable the all-assets option for stocks if desired.
Volume data for forex represents tick volume, not actual traded volume.
All alert conditions fire only on confirmed (closed) bars to prevent false signals.
The Calculated Projection updates each bar as market state changes. This is expected behavior. The projection shows probabilities based on similar past conditions, not a fixed prediction.
Q AND A
Q: Does this indicator repaint?
A: No. The main VWAP calculation uses standard TradingView VWAP methodology. Multi-timeframe values use previous period's confirmed data with appropriate lookahead settings. All alert signals require bar confirmation.
Q: Why does my Rolling VWAP look different on 1-minute versus 15-minute charts?
A: Rolling VWAP calculates across a fixed number of trading days. On very short timeframes, the bar lookback may hit TradingView limits. For best Rolling VWAP accuracy, use 15-minute or higher timeframes.
Q: Can I use this on any instrument?
A: Yes. The indicator automatically detects asset type and adjusts behavior. Stocks use standard market hours. Crypto uses 24/7 calculations. Forex uses tick volume. Everything adapts automatically.
Q: What does the Confidence Score actually measure?
A: The score combines six weighted factors: MTF alignment (25%), Z-Score position (20%), Trend direction (20%), CVD pressure (15%), Momentum state (10%), and Relative volume (10%). Higher scores indicate more factors aligned in one direction.
Q: Why are Session VWAPs not showing on my stock chart?
A: Session VWAPs apply to 24-hour markets by default (forex, crypto, futures). For stocks, enable the Use for All Assets option in Session VWAP settings.
Q: The Divergence labels appear delayed. Is this a bug?
A: Divergence detection requires pivot confirmation, which needs bars on both sides of the pivot point. The label appears at the actual pivot location (several bars back) once confirmed. This is intentional and prevents false signals.
Q: Can I change the band colors?
A: Yes. Each of the three bands has its own color input setting. You can customize Band 1, Band 2, and Band 3 colors to match your preferences. The defaults are Aqua, Fuchsia, and Purple. The main VWAP line color adapts dynamically based on slope direction or can be set to static blue.
Q: How do I set up alerts?
A: Right-click on the chart, select Add Alert, choose this indicator, and select your desired condition from the dropdown. All conditions include descriptive alert messages with relevant data.
Q: What is the Probability Engine lookback period?
A: This setting determines how many trading days the indicator analyzes to calculate band touch rates and mean reversion statistics. Default is 60 days (approximately 3 months). Longer periods provide more stable statistics but may miss recent behavior changes.
Q: Why do I see fewer labels than expected?
A: Signal labels (Volume, Momentum, Squeeze, Divergence) are limited to 5 most recent labels on the chart to keep it clean. When a new label appears, the oldest one is automatically removed. Additionally, momentum labels have several filters: check the slope multiplier setting (higher values require stronger trends) and the Only Reversal Signals option (when enabled, labels only appear for potential reversals, not trend confirmations).
Q: What is the Calculated Projection and how accurate is it?
A: The Calculated Projection analyzes what happened in past market conditions similar to the current state. It classifies each bar by Z-Score level, Trend direction, and Volume profile (27 unique states), then shows the historical probability of up vs down and the average move size. It is NOT a price prediction or guarantee. The probability shown is how often similar conditions led to up/down moves historically, not a future guarantee. Always use it as one input among many.
Q: Why does the Projection probability change?
A: The projection updates on each bar as market state changes. If Z-Score moves from LOW to MID, or trend shifts from UP to FLAT, the system looks up a different historical category. This is expected behavior. The projection shows what happened in similar past conditions to the current bar's state.
Q: The Projection shows LOW confidence. What does that mean?
A: Confidence levels indicate sample size: HIGH means 30 or more historical cases found, MEDIUM means 15-29 cases, LOW means fewer than 15 cases. When sample size is low, the system uses a fallback: first aggregating by Z-Score plus Trend only (ignoring volume), then by Z-Score only. LOW confidence means less statistical reliability, so weight other factors more heavily in your decision.
Q: Why does the cone sometimes show 50/50 probability?
A: A 50/50 reading means that in similar past market states, price moved up roughly half the time and down half the time. This indicates a neutral or balanced condition where historical patterns provide no directional edge. Consider waiting for a higher probability setup or using other analysis methods.
CREDITS AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Methodology Foundation:
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) - Standard institutional benchmark calculation, widely used since the 1980s for algorithmic execution and fair value assessment
Standard Deviation Bands - Statistical volatility measurement applying normal distribution principles to price deviation from mean
Z-Score Analysis - Classic statistical normalization technique for comparing values across different volatility regimes
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) - Order flow analysis concept measuring aggressive buying versus selling pressure
Concept Integration:
Mean reversion probability engine - Custom historical statistics tracking for band touch rates
Momentum acceleration detection - Second derivative analysis of VWAP slope changes
VWAP Squeeze - Volatility compression concept adapted from TTM Squeeze methodology applied to VWAP bands versus ATR
Confidence scoring system - Weighted composite scoring combining multiple technical factors
Calculated Projection Cone - Probability-based projection using 27-state market classification (Z-Score, Trend, Volume) with historical outcome analysis and weighted fallback system
All calculations use standard public domain formulas and TradingView built-in functions. No proprietary third-party code was used.
For questions, feedback, or feature requests, please comment below or send a private message.
Happy Trading!
US Market Long Horizon Momentum Summary in one paragraph
US Market Long Horizon Momentum is a trend following strategy for US index ETFs and futures built around a single eighteen month time series momentum measure. It helps you stay long during persistent bull regimes and step aside or flip short when long term momentum turns negative.
Scope and intent
• Markets. Large cap US equity indices, liquid US index ETFs, index futures
• Timeframes. 4h/ Daily charts
• Default demo used in the publication. SPY on 4h timeframe chart
• Purpose. Provide a minimal long bias index timing model that can reduce deep drawdowns and capture major cycles without parameter mining
• Limits. This is a strategy. Orders are simulated on standard candles only
Originality and usefulness
• Unique concept or fusion. One unscaled multiple month log return of an external benchmark symbol drives all entries and exits, with optional volatility targeting as a single risk control switch.
• Failure mode addressed. Fully passive buy and hold ignores the sign of long horizon momentum and can sit through multi year drawdowns. This script offers a way to step down risk in prolonged negative momentum without chasing short term noise.
• Testability. All parameters are visible in Inputs and the momentum series is plotted so users can verify every regime change in the Tester and on price history.
• Portable yardstick. The log return over a fixed window is a unit that can be applied to any liquid symbol with daily data.
Method overview in plain language
The method looks at how far the benchmark symbol has moved in log return terms over an eighteen month window in our example. If that long horizon return is positive the strategy allows a long stance on the traded symbol. If it is negative and shorts are enabled the strategy can flip short, otherwise it goes flat. There is an optional realised volatility estimate on the traded symbol that can scale position size toward a target annual volatility, but in the default configuration the model uses unit leverage and only the sign of momentum matters.
Base measures
Return basis. The core yardstick is the natural log of close divided by the close eighteen months ago on the benchmark symbol. Daily log returns of the traded symbol feed the realised volatility estimate when volatility targeting is enabled.
Components
• Component one Momentum eighteen months. Log of benchmark close divided by its close mom_lookback bars ago. Its sign defines the trend regime. No extra smoothing is applied beyond the long window itself.
• Component two Realised volatility optional. Standard deviation of daily log returns on the traded symbol over sixty three days. Annualised by the square root of 252. Used only when volatility targeting is enabled.
• Optional component Volatility targeting. Converts target annual volatility and realised volatility into a leverage factor clipped by a maximum leverage setting.
Fusion rule
The model uses a simple gate. First compute the sign of eighteen month log momentum on the benchmark symbol. Optionally compute leverage from volatility. The sign decides whether the strategy wants to be long, short, or flat. Leverage only rescales position size when enabled and does not change direction.
Signal rule
• Long suggestion. When eighteen month log momentum on the benchmark symbol is greater than zero, the strategy wants to be long.
• Short suggestion. When that log momentum is less than zero and shorts are allowed, the strategy wants to be short. If shorts are disabled it stays flat instead.
• Wait state. When the log momentum is exactly zero or history is not long enough the strategy stays flat.
• In position. In practice the strategy sits IN LONG while the sign stays positive and flips to IN SHORT or flat only when the sign changes.
Inputs with guidance
Setup
• Momentum Lookback (months). Controls the horizon of the log return on the benchmark symbol. Typical range 6 to 24 months. Raising it makes the model slower and more selective. Lowering it makes it more reactive and sensitive to medium term noise.
• Symbol. External symbol used for the momentum calculation, SPY by default. Changing it lets you time other indices or run signals from a benchmark while trading a correlated instrument.
Logic
• Allow Shorts. When true the strategy will open short positions during negative momentum regimes. When false it will stay flat whenever momentum is negative. Practical setting is tied to whether you use a margin account or an ETF that supports shorting.
Internal risk parameters (not exposed as inputs in this version) are:
• Target Vol (annual). Target annual volatility for volatility targeting, default 0.2.
• Vol Lookback (days). Window for realised volatility, default 63 trading days.
• Max Leverage. Cap on leverage when volatility targeting is enabled, default 2.
Usage recipes
Swing continuation
• Signal timeframe. Use the daily chart.
• Benchmark symbol. Leave at SPY for US equity index exposure.
• Momentum lookback. Eighteen months as a default, with twelve months as an alternative preset for a faster swing bias.
Properties visible in this publication
• Initial capital. 100000
• Base currency. USD
• Default order size method. 5% of the total capital in this example
• Pyramiding. 0
• Commission. 0.03 percent
• Slippage. 3 ticks
• Process orders on close. On
• Bar magnifier. Off
• Recalculate after order is filled. Off
• Calc on every tick. Off
• All request.security calls use lookahead = barmerge.lookahead_off
Realism and responsible publication
The strategy is for education and research only. It does not claim any guaranteed edge or future performance. All results in Strategy Tester are hypothetical and depend on the data vendor, costs, and slippage assumptions. Intrabar motion is not modeled inside daily bars so extreme moves and gaps can lead to fills that differ from live trading. The logic is built for standard candles and should not be used on synthetic chart types for execution decisions.
Performance is sensitive to regime structure in the US equity market, which may change over time. The strategy does not protect against single day crash risk inside bars and does not model gap risk explicitly. Past behavior of SPY and the momentum effect does not guarantee future persistence.
Honest limitations and failure modes
• Long sideways regimes with small net change over eighteen months can lead to whipsaw around the zero line.
• Very sharp V shaped reversals after deep declines will often be missed because the model waits for momentum to turn positive again.
• The sample size in a full SPY history is small because regime changes are infrequent, so any test must be interpreted as indicative rather than statistically precise.
• The model is highly dependent on the chosen lookback. Users should test nearby values and validate that behavior is qualitatively stable.
Legal
Education and research only. Not investment advice. You are responsible for your own decisions. Always test on historical data and in simulation with realistic costs before any live use.
ATR/ADR MTF Projection ArrayATR/ADR MTF Projection Array
Overview
A powerful predictive tool that projects ATR (Average True Range) and ADR (Average Daily Range) levels as clean support and resistance arrays on your chart. Designed for traders who want to anticipate the high and low of the day using volatility-based projections with multi-timeframe confluence.
This indicator combines traditional ATR analysis with ICT-style ADR methodology, giving you institutional-grade level projections from a single, customizable tool.
Key Features
🎯 Dual Volatility Metrics
ATR Projections — Classic volatility-based levels with full multi-timeframe support
ADR Projections (ICT Style) — Average Daily Range levels using Inner Circle Trader methodology
Enable/disable each independently based on your trading preference
📊 Multi-Timeframe ATR Analysis
Plot ATR levels from up to 3 timeframes simultaneously (Daily, Weekly, Monthly or custom)
Each timeframe displays with distinct styling for easy identification
Perfect for confluence trading across multiple time horizons
⚡ ICT ADR Methodology
NY Midnight calculation mode (ICT standard) or Classic Daily
Key ICT levels built-in:
1/3 ADR (Judas Swing) — Critical manipulation level where fake moves often terminate
1/2 ADR — Mid-range reference
2/3 ADR — Trending day continuation target
100% ADR — Full daily range completion
150% ADR — Extension target for expansion days
Two projection modes: Static (from anchor) or Dynamic (from session high/low)
🔧 Flexible Anchor Points
Previous Close (default)
Daily Open
Weekly Open
Monthly Open
Session Open
📈 Range Completion Tracking
Real-time display of how much of the expected daily range has been consumed
Visual status indicator helps identify when the day's move may be exhausted
How To Use
For Bias Confirmation:
Establish your directional bias using your preferred method (trigger day, market structure, etc.)
Monitor the 1/3 ADR level during London/NY open for potential Judas Swing (manipulation move)
Target 2/3 to 100% ADR for your HOD/LOD objective
For Target Setting:
Use ATR levels as volatility-based profit targets
ADR 100% level often marks session extremes
When Range Used reaches 100%+, expect consolidation or reversal
For Multi-Timeframe Confluence:
Enable Weekly/Monthly ATR levels alongside Daily
Look for clustering of levels across timeframes for high-probability zones
Settings Guide
Master Controls — Toggle ATR/ADR systems and bull/bear levels independently
ATR Settings — Configure period, multiplier, anchor point, and select which timeframes to display
ATR Level Multipliers — Choose which projection levels to show (0.5x, 0.75x, 1.0x, 1.25x, 1.5x)
ADR Settings (ICT Style) — Select calculation mode (NY Midnight recommended), period (5 days is ICT standard), and projection mode
ADR Level Selection — Toggle individual ICT levels (1/3, 1/2, 2/3, 100%, 150%)
Visual Settings — Customize colors, line styles, labels, and info table position
Alerts Included
ATR 1.0x Bull/Bear Cross
ADR 1/3 Judas Swing Zone (Bull/Bear)
ADR 100% Range Completion (Bull/Bear)
Day Range with OHLC LabelsThis indicator creates a synthetic daily candlestick that appears to the right of the chart, visually separated from real price bars.
It helps traders quickly view each day’s High, Low, Open, and Close without zooming, scrolling, or switching to higher timeframes.
What This Tool Does
✔ Draws a floating daily candle to the right of the current chart
✔ Displays the true Daily Open, High, Low, and Close
✔ Shows a center-aligned wick representing the full high-low range
✔ Shows a box-style candle body positioned using real OHLC values
✔ Labels the values (O, H, L, C) with large, clear fonts
✔ Automatically updates at each new day
✔ Works on any timeframe
✔ Helps intraday traders track daily structure visually
Why This Indicator Is Useful
This script is ideal for intraday traders who want instant awareness of the current day’s range.
Instead of guessing or drawing manual lines, you get a clean daily candlestick rendered off to the right side, avoiding chart clutter.
Great for:
Range traders
Breakout traders
Liquidity zone analysis
High/Low reference tracking
Traders who prefer non-intrusive visuals
Customization
Adjustable offset: position the candle further right
Configurable colors for wick + body
Large-font labels for easy reading
Automatically clears and redraws cleanly each day
Summary
This tool creates a clear, minimalistic, right-side daily candlestick complete with OHLC labels and centralized wick.
It’s designed to improve chart clarity and support quick decision-making without blocking price candles.
DarkPool FlowDarkPool Flow is a professional-grade technical analysis tool designed to align retail traders with the dominant "smart money" flow. Unlike standard moving average crossovers that often generate false signals during consolidation, this script employs a multi-layered filtering engine to isolate high-probability trends.
The core philosophy of this indicator is that Trends are fractal. A sustainable move on a lower timeframe must be supported by momentum on a higher timeframe. By comparing a "Fast Signal Trend" against a "Slow Anchor Trend" (e.g., Daily vs. Weekly), the script identifies the market bias used by institutional algorithms.
This edition features a Smart Recovery Engine, ensuring that valid trends are not missed simply because momentum started slowly, and a Dynamic Cloud that visually represents the strength of the trend spread.
Key Features
1. Auto-Adaptive Timeframe Logic
The script eliminates the guesswork of Multi-Timeframe (MTF) selection. By enabling "Auto-Adapt," the indicator detects your current chart timeframe and automatically maps it to the mathematically correct institutional pairings:
Scalping (<15m): Uses 15-Minute Trend vs. 1-Hour Anchor.
Day Trading (15m - 1H): Uses 4-Hour Trend vs. Daily Anchor.
Swing Trading (4H - Daily): Uses Daily Trend vs. Weekly Anchor (The classic "Golden" setup).
Investing (Weekly): Uses 21-Week EMA vs. 50-Week SMA (Bull Market Support Band logic).
2. Smart Recovery Signal Engine
Standard crossover scripts often miss major moves if the specific breakout candle has low volume or weak ADX. This script utilizes a state-machine logic that "remembers" the trend direction. If a trend begins during low volatility (gray candles), the script waits. The moment volatility and momentum confirm the move, a Smart Recovery Signal is triggered, allowing you to enter an existing trend safely.
3. Chop Protection (Gray Candles)
Preservation of capital is the priority. The script analyzes the Average Directional Index (ADX) and Volatility (ATR).
Colored Candles (Green/Red): The market is trending with sufficient strength. Trading is permitted.
Gray Candles: The market is in a low-energy chop or consolidation (ADX < 20). Trading is discouraged.
4. Dynamic Trend Cloud
The space between the Fast and Slow trends is filled with a dynamic cloud.
Darker/Opaque Cloud: Indicates a widening spread, suggesting accelerating momentum.
Lighter/Transparent Cloud: Indicates a narrowing spread, suggesting the trend may be weakening or consolidating.
5. Pullback & Retest Signals (+)
While triangles mark the start of a trend, the Plus (+) signs mark low-risk opportunities to add to a position. These appear when price dips into the cloud, finds support at the "Fair Value" zone, and closes back in the direction of the trend with confirmed momentum.
User Guide & Strategy
Setup
Add the indicator to your chart.
For Beginners: Enable "Auto-Adaptive Timeframes" in the settings.
For Advanced Users: Disable Auto-Adapt and manually configure your Fast/Slow pairings (Default is Daily 50 EMA / Weekly 50 EMA).
Signal Mode: Choose "First Breakout Only" for a cleaner chart, or "All Signals" if you wish to see re-entry points during choppy starts.
Long Entry Criteria (Buy)
Trend: The Cloud must be Green (Fast Trend > Slow Trend).
Signal: A Green Triangle appears below the bar.
Confirmation: The signal candle must not be Gray.
Re-Entry: A small Green (+) sign appears, indicating a successful test of the cloud support.
Short Entry Criteria (Sell)
Trend: The Cloud must be Red (Fast Trend < Slow Trend).
Signal: A Red Triangle appears above the bar.
Confirmation: The signal candle must not be Gray.
Re-Entry: A small Red (+) sign appears, indicating a successful test of the cloud resistance.
Stop Loss & Risk Management
Stop Loss: A standard institutional stop loss is placed just beyond the Slow Trend Line (the outer edge of the cloud). If price closes beyond the Slow Trend, the macro thesis is invalid.
Take Profit: Target liquidity pools or use a trailing stop based on the Fast Trend line.
Settings Overview
Mode Selection: Toggle between Auto-Adaptive logic or Manual control.
Manual Configuration: Define the specific Timeframe, Length, and Type (EMA, SMA, WMA) for both Fast and Slow trends.
Signal Logic: Toggle "Show Pullback Signals" on/off. Switch between "First Breakout" or "All Signals."
Quality Filters: Toggle individual filters (ATR, RSI, ADX) to adjust sensitivity. Turning these off makes the script more responsive but increases false signals.
Visual Style: Customize colors for Bullish, Bearish, and Neutral (Gray) states. Adjust cloud transparency.
Disclaimer
Risk Warning: Trading financial markets involves a high degree of risk and is not suitable for all investors. You could lose some or all of your initial investment.
Educational Use Only: This script and the information provided herein are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other recommendation.
No Guarantee: Past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. The "Institutional Trend" indicator is a tool to assist in technical analysis, not a crystal ball. The creators of this script assume no responsibility or liability for any trading losses or damages incurred as a result of using this tool. Always perform your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Momentum Structural AnalysisMomentum Structural Analysis (MSA‑style Oscillator)
This indicator implements a simple, MSA‑style momentum oscillator that measures how far price has moved above or below its own long‑term trend on the active timeframe, expressed in percentage terms. Instead of looking at raw price, it "oscillates" price around a timeframe‑appropriate simple moving average (SMA) and plots the percentage distance from that SMA as an orange line around a zero baseline. Zero means price is exactly at its structural trend; positive values mean price is extended above trend; negative values mean it is trading below trend.
The script automatically selects the SMA length based on the chart timeframe:
On daily charts it uses the configurable Daily SMA Length (default 252 trading days, roughly 1 year).
On weekly charts it uses Weekly SMA Length (default 208 weeks).
On monthly charts it uses Monthly SMA Length (default 120 months).
This approach is inspired by the ideas behind Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA), which studies where a market trades relative to long‑term moving averages and then treats the momentum line (the oscillator) as the primary object of analysis. The goal is to highlight structural overbought/oversold conditions and regime changes that are often clearer on momentum than on the raw price chart.
--------------------------------------------------
What the script computes and how it works
For each bar, the indicator:
Chooses an SMA length based on the current timeframe (daily/weekly/monthly).
Calculates the SMA of the close.
Computes the percentage distance:
\text{Diff %} = \frac{\text{Close} - \text{SMA}}{\text{SMA}} \times 100
Plots this Diff % as an orange line, with a dashed horizontal zero line as the base.
This produces a momentum oscillator that oscillates around zero and reflects the "structural" position of price versus its own long‑term mean.
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How to use it on index charts (e.g., NIFTY50)
On indices like NIFTY50, use the indicator to see how stretched the index is versus its structural trend.
Typical uses:
Identify extremes: a). Historically high positive readings can signal euphoric, late‑stage conditions where risk is elevated. b). Deep negative readings can highlight panic/capitulation zones where downside may be exhausted.
Draw structural levels: a). Mark horizontal bands on the oscillator where past turns have occurred (e.g., +15%, −10%, etc. specific to NIFTY50). b). Watch how price behaves when the oscillator revisits these zones: repeated rejections can validate them as structural bounds; clean breaks can indicate a change of regime.
This is not a buy/sell signal generator by itself; it is a framework to understand where the index sits within its long‑term momentum structure and to support risk‑management decisions.
--------------------------------------------------
How to use it on ratio charts
Apply the same indicator to ratio symbols such as NIFTY50/GOLD, BANKNIFTY/NIFTY50, sector vs index, or any spread you plot as a ratio.
On a ratio chart:
The oscillator now measures relative momentum: how far that ratio is above or below its own long‑term mean.
High positive readings = strong outperformance of the numerator vs the denominator (e.g., equities strongly outperforming gold).
Deep negative readings = strong underperformance (e.g., equities structurally lagging gold).
This is very much in the spirit of MSA’s work on spreads between asset classes: it helps visualize major rotations (equities → gold, financials → commodities, etc.) and whether a relative‑performance trend is stretched, reverting, or breaking into a new phase.
--------------------------------------------------
Using multiple timeframes for better decisions
You can stack information across timeframes to get a more robust view:
Monthly : a). Use monthly charts to see secular/structural phases. b). Long multi‑year stretches above or below zero, and large bases or trendline breaks on the monthly oscillator, can mark major bull or bear cycles and big rotations between asset classes.
Weekly : a). Use weekly charts for the primary trend. b). Weekly structures (multi‑month highs/lows, channels, or trendlines on the oscillator) are useful for medium‑term positioning and for confirming or rejecting signals seen on the monthly view.
Daily : a). Use daily charts mainly for timing entries/exits once the higher‑timeframe direction is clear. b). Short‑term extremes on the daily oscillator that align with the larger weekly/monthly structure can offer better‑timed opportunities, while signals that contradict higher‑timeframe momentum are more likely to be noise.
--------------------------------------------------
One for AllOne for All (OFA) - Complete ICT Analysis Suite
Version 3.3.0 by theCodeman
📊 Overview
One for All (OFA) is a comprehensive TradingView indicator designed for traders who follow Inner Circle Trader (ICT) concepts. This all-in-one tool combines essential ICT analysis features—sessions, kill zones, previous period levels, and higher timeframe candles with Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and Volume Imbalances (VIs)—into a single, highly customizable indicator. Whether you're a beginner learning ICT concepts or an experienced trader refining your edge, OFA provides the visual structure needed for precise market analysis and execution.
✨ Key Features
- 🏷️ Customizable Watermark**: Display your trading identity with customizable titles, subtitles, symbol info, and full style control
- 🌍 Trading Sessions**: Visualize Asian, London, and New York sessions with high/low lines, range boxes, and open/close markers
- 🎯 Kill Zones**: Highlight 5 critical ICT kill zones with precise timing and visual boxes
- 📈 Previous Period H/L**: Track Daily, Weekly, and Monthly highs/lows with customizable styles and lookback periods
- 🕐 Higher Timeframe Candles**: Display up to 5 HTF timeframes with OHLC trace lines, timers, and interval labels
- 🔍 FVG & VI Detection**: Automatically detect and visualize Fair Value Gaps and Volume Imbalances on HTF candles
- ⚙️ Universal Timezone Support**: Works globally with GMT-12 to GMT+14 timezone selection
- 🎨 Full Customization**: Control colors, styles, visibility, and layout for every feature
🚀 How to Use
Watermark Setup
The watermark overlay helps you identify your charts and maintain focus on your trading principles:
1. Enable/disable watermark via "Show Watermark" toggle
2. Customize the title (default: "Name") to display your trading name or account identifier
3. Set up to 3 subtitles (default: "Patience", "Confidence", "Execution") as trading reminders
4. Choose position (9 locations available), size, color, and transparency
5. Toggle symbol and timeframe display as needed
Use Case: Display your trading principles or account name for multi-monitor setups or content creation.
Trading Sessions Analysis
Sessions define market character and liquidity availability:
1. Enable "Show All Sessions" to visualize all three sessions
2. Adjust timezone to match your local market (default: UTC-5 for EST)
3. Customize session times if needed (defaults cover standard hours)
4. Enable session range boxes to see consolidation zones
5. Use session high/low lines to identify key levels for the current session
6. Enable open/close markers to track session transitions
Use Case: Identify which session you're trading in, track session highs/lows for liquidity, and anticipate session transition volatility.
Kill Zones Trading
Kill zones are ICT's high-probability trading windows:
1. Enable individual kill zones or use "Show All Kill Zones"
2. **Asian Kill Zone** (2000-0000 GMT): Early positioning and smart money accumulation
3. **London Kill Zone** (0300-0500 GMT): European market opening volatility
4. **NY AM Kill Zone** (0930-1100 EST): Post-NYSE open expansion
5. **NY Lunch Kill Zone** (1200-1300 EST): Midday consolidation or manipulation
6. **NY PM Kill Zone** (1330-1600 EST): Afternoon positioning and closes
7. Customize colors and times to match your trading style
8. Set max days display to control historical visibility (default: 30 days)
Use Case: Focus entries during high-probability windows. Watch for liquidity sweeps at kill zone openings and institutional positioning.
Previous Period High/Low Levels
Previous period levels act as magnetic price targets and support/resistance:
1. Enable Daily (PDH/PDL), Weekly (PWH/PWL), or Monthly (PMH/PML) levels individually
2. Set lookback period (how many previous periods to display)
3. Choose line style: Solid (current emphasis), Dashed (standard), or Dotted (subtle)
4. Customize colors per timeframe for visual hierarchy
5. Adjust line width (1-5) for visibility preference
6. Enable gradient effect to fade older periods
7. Position labels left or right based on chart layout
8. Customize label text for your preferred notation
Use Case: Identify key levels where price is likely to react. Daily levels work on intraday timeframes, Weekly on daily charts, Monthly for swing trading.
Higher Timeframe (HTF) Candles
HTF candles reveal the larger market context while trading lower timeframes:
1. Enable up to 5 HTF slots simultaneously (default: 5m, 15m, 1H, 4H, Daily)
2. Choose display mode: "Below Chart" (stacked rows) or "Right Side" (compact column)
3. Customize timeframe, colors (bull/bear), and titles for each slot
4. **OHLC Trace Lines**: Visual lines connecting HTF candle levels to chart bars
5. **HTF Timer**: Countdown showing time remaining until HTF candle close
6. **Interval Labels**: Display day of week (Daily+) or time (intraday) on each candle
7. For Daily candles: Choose open time (Midnight, 8:30, 9:30) to match your market structure preference
Use Case: Trade lower timeframes while respecting higher timeframe structure. Watch for HTF candle closes to confirm directional bias.
FVG & VI Detection
Fair Value Gaps and Volume Imbalances highlight inefficiencies that price often revisits:
1. **Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)**: Detected when HTF candle wicks don't overlap between 3 consecutive candles
- Bullish FVG: Gap between candle 1 high and candle 3 low (green box by default)
- Bearish FVG: Gap between candle 1 low and candle 3 high (red box by default)
2. **Volume Imbalances (VIs)**: Similar detection but focuses on body gaps
- Bullish VI: Gap between candle 1 close and candle 3 open
- Bearish VI: Gap between candle 1 open and candle 3 close
3. Enable FVG/VI detection per HTF slot individually
4. Customize colors and transparency for each imbalance type
5. Boxes appear on chart at formation and remain visible as retracement targets
**Use Case**: Identify high-probability retracement zones. Price often returns to fill FVGs and VIs before continuing the trend. Use as entry zones or profit targets.
🎨 Customization
OFA is built for flexibility. Every feature includes extensive customization options:
Visual Customization
- **Colors**: Independent color control for every element (sessions, kill zones, lines, labels, FVGs, VIs)
- **Transparency**: Adjust box and label transparency (0-100%) for clean charts
- **Line Styles**: Choose Solid, Dashed, or Dotted for previous period lines
- **Sizes**: Control text size, line width, and box borders
- **Positions**: Place watermark in 9 positions, labels left/right
Layout Control
- **HTF Display Mode**: "Below Chart" for detailed analysis, "Right Side" for space efficiency
- **Drawing Limits**: Set max days for sessions/kill zones to manage chart clutter
- **Lookback Periods**: Control how many previous periods to display (1-10)
- **Gradient Effects**: Enable fading for older previous period lines
Timing Adjustments
- **Timezone**: Universal GMT offset selector (-12 to +14) for global markets
- **Session Times**: Customize each session's start/end times
- **Kill Zone Times**: Adjust kill zone windows to match your market's characteristics
- **Daily Open**: Choose Midnight, 8:30, or 9:30 for Daily HTF candle open time
💡 Best Practices
1. Start Simple: Enable one feature at a time to learn how each element affects your analysis
2. Match Your Timeframe: Use Daily levels on intraday charts, Weekly on daily charts, HTF candles one or two levels above your trading timeframe
3. Kill Zone Focus: Concentrate your trading activity during kill zones for higher probability setups
4. HTF Confirmation: Wait for HTF candle closes before committing to directional bias
5. FVG/VI Entries: Look for price to return to unfilled FVGs/VIs for entry opportunities with favorable risk/reward
6. Customize Colors: Use a consistent color scheme that matches your chart theme and reduces visual fatigue
7. Reduce Clutter: Disable features you're not actively using in your current trading plan
8. Session Context: Understand which session controls the market—trade with session direction or anticipate reversals at session transitions
⚙️ Settings Guide
OFA organizes settings into logical groups for easy navigation:
- **═══ WATERMARK ═══**: Title, subtitles, position, style, symbol/timeframe display
- **═══ SESSIONS ═══**: Enable/disable sessions, times, colors, high/low lines, boxes, markers
- **═══ KILL ZONES ═══**: Individual kill zone toggles, times, colors, max days display
- **═══ PREVIOUS H/L - DAILY ═══**: Daily high/low lines, style, color, lookback, labels
- **═══ PREVIOUS H/L - WEEKLY ═══**: Weekly high/low lines, style, color, lookback, labels
- **═══ PREVIOUS H/L - MONTHLY ═══**: Monthly high/low lines, style, color, lookback, labels
- **═══ HTF CANDLES ═══**: Global display mode, layout settings
- **═══ HTF SLOT 1-5 ═══**: Individual HTF configuration (timeframe, colors, title, FVG/VI detection, trace lines, timer, interval labels)
Each setting includes tooltips explaining its function. Hover over any input for detailed guidance.
📝 Final Notes
One for All (OFA) represents a complete ICT analysis toolkit in a single indicator. By combining watermark customization, session visualization, kill zone highlighting, previous period levels, and higher timeframe candles with FVG/VI detection, OFA eliminates the need for multiple indicators cluttering your chart.
**Version**: 3.3.0
**Author**: theCodeman
**Pine Script**: v6
**License**: Mozilla Public License 2.0
Start with default settings to learn the indicator's structure, then customize extensively to match your personal trading style. Remember: tools provide information, but your edge comes from disciplined execution of a proven strategy.
Happy Trading! 📈
Macros+AMD [NW]Macros + AMD - Daily & Weekly Time-Based Analysis
Multi-timeframe AMD (Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution) visualization with ICT Macro timing windows for time-based market analysis.
Overview
This indicator visualizes the AMD (Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution) framework on both daily and weekly timeframes, combined with ICT Macro timing windows. It is designed as an educational tool to help traders study time-based market structure and algorithmic price delivery concepts.
The AMD model is based on the idea that markets move through distinct phases within each trading period:
Accumulation (A) - Initial range formation, liquidity building
Manipulation (M) - False moves to trap traders, liquidity sweeps
Distribution (D) - True directional move, price delivery to targets
What This Indicator Displays
Daily AMD Phases
Displays the intraday AMD cycle based on New York trading hours:
A Phase (Blue): 4:00 AM - 8:35 AM EST — Morning accumulation, Asian/London overlap
M Phase (Red): 8:35 AM - 11:25 AM EST — NY session manipulation, news events
D Phase (Green): 11:25 AM - 4:00 PM EST — Afternoon distribution and price delivery
Weekly AMD Phases
Displays the weekly AMD cycle from Monday to Monday:
A Phase: Monday 00:00 - Tuesday 21:56 EST — Weekly high/low formation begins
M Phase: Tuesday 21:56 - Thursday 02:04 EST — Mid-week reversal zone
D Phase: Thursday 02:04 - Monday 00:00 EST — Weekly price delivery
Inner M Phase Fibs
When enabled, subdivides the M (Manipulation) phase using Fibonacci levels:
0.382 level — Inner accumulation ends
0.500 level — Mid-point of manipulation
0.618 level — Inner distribution begins
This helps identify potential reversal points within the manipulation phase.
ICT Macro Windows
Horizontal lines marking the XX:42 to XX:15 macro periods (33-minute windows):
2:42 - 3:15 AM
3:42 - 4:15 AM (London)
7:42 - 8:15 AM
8:42 - 9:15 AM
9:42 - 10:15 AM (Prime AM session)
10:42 - 11:15 AM
11:42 - 12:15 PM
12:42 - 1:15 PM
1:42 - 2:15 PM
2:42 - 3:15 PM
These windows represent times when algorithmic price delivery is more likely to occur.
How To Use
Understanding the AMD Framework
During the A Phase:
Observe range formation and initial liquidity pools
Note the high and low established during this phase
Wait for manipulation before committing to direction
During the M Phase:
Watch for false breakouts and stop hunts
Look for reversal patterns after liquidity sweeps
The inner fibs (0.382, 0.5, 0.618) can help time entries within this phase
Mid-week (Wednesday) often sees key reversals on weekly AMD
During the D Phase:
This is typically when the true move occurs
Price tends to deliver toward draw on liquidity targets
The direction is often opposite to the manipulation move
Using the Macro Windows
The XX:42 to XX:15 windows are times to pay attention to price action:
These 33-minute periods often see increased algorithmic activity
Look for displacement, fair value gaps, or order blocks forming
The 9:42-10:15 AM window is considered particularly significant for NY session
Weekly Day Labels
Monday/Tuesday: "H/L of Week" — Watch for weekly high or low formation
Wednesday: "Reversal Day" — Mid-week reversal probability increases
Thursday/Friday: "Reversal Day" — Continuation or secondary reversal
Settings Guide
Main Settings
Timezone: Set to your broker's timezone or preferred timezone
Macros On Top: Toggle macro lines above or below AMD boxes
Show All Text Labels: Master toggle for all text (turn off for clean charts on HTF)
Daily/Weekly AMD
Show: Enable/disable the AMD visualization
Opacity: Adjust transparency of the phase boxes (higher = more transparent)
AMD Colors
Customize colors for each phase (A, M, D)
Default: Blue (A), Red (M), Green (D)
Inner M Style
Customize the inner M phase fib lines and text colors
Default: Black lines for clean visibility
Macro Settings
Adjust macro line color and thickness
Toggle individual macro windows on/off
Important Notes
This indicator is for educational purposes and time-based analysis
It does not provide buy/sell signals
Always use in conjunction with proper price action analysis
Past price behavior during these time windows does not guarantee future results
The AMD framework is one lens for viewing market structure — use it as part of a complete methodology
Credits
This indicator is based on concepts taught by ICT (Inner Circle Trader) and the broader Smart Money Concepts community. The AMD framework, macro timing windows, and weekly profile concepts are derived from this educational methodology.
Timeframe Recommendations
Best viewed on 1-minute to 15-minute charts
Text labels automatically hide on 9-minute and higher timeframes for cleaner visualization
Indicator hides completely on 1-hour and higher timeframes
Changelog
v1.0 - Initial release
Daily AMD phases (4am-4pm EST)
Weekly AMD phases (Monday-Monday)
Inner M phase Fibonacci subdivisions
10 ICT Macro timing windows
Full customization options
Automatic 9-day cleanup
VB Finviz-style MTF Screener📊 VB Multi-Timeframe Stock Screener (Daily + 4H + 1H)
A structured, high-signal stock screener that blends Daily fundamentals, 4H trend confirmation, and 1H entry timing to surface strong trading opportunities with institutional discipline.
🟦 1. Daily Screener — Core Stock Selection
All fundamental and structural filters run strictly on Daily data for maximum stability and signal quality.
Daily filters include:
📈 Average Volume & Relative Volume
💲 Minimum Price Threshold
📊 Beta vs SPY
🏢 Market Cap (Billions)
🔥 ATR Liquidity Filter
🧱 Float Requirements
📘 Price Above Daily SMA50
🚀 Minimum Gap-Up Condition
This layer acts like a Finviz-style engine, identifying stocks worth trading before momentum or timing is considered.
🟩 2. 4H Trend Confirmation — Momentum Check
Once a stock passes the Daily screen, the 4-hour timeframe validates trend strength:
🔼 Price above 4H MA
📈 MA pointing upward
This removes structurally good stocks that are not in a healthy trend.
🟧 3. 1H Entry Alignment — Timing Layer
The Hourly timeframe refines near-term timing:
🔼 Price above 1H MA
📉 Short-term upward movement detected
This step ensures the stock isn’t just good on paper—it’s moving now.
🧪 MTF Debug Table (Your Transparency Engine)
A live diagnostic table shows:
All Daily values
All 4H checks
All 1H checks
Exact PASS/FAIL per condition
Perfect for tuning thresholds or understanding why a ticker qualifies or fails.
🎯 Who This Screener Is For
Swing traders
Momentum/trend traders
Systematic and rules-based traders
Traders who want clean, multi-timeframe alignment
By combining Daily fundamentals, 4H trend structure, and 1H momentum, this screener filters the market down to the stocks that are strong, aligned, and ready.
NIFTY Weekly Option Seller DirectionalHere’s a straight description you can paste into the TradingView “Description” box and tweak if needed:
---
### NIFTY Weekly Option Seller – Regime + Score + Management (Single TF)
This indicator is built for **weekly option sellers** (primarily NIFTY) who want a **structured regime + scoring framework** to decide:
* Whether to trade **Iron Condor (IC)**, **Put Credit Spread (PCS)** or **Call Credit Spread (CCS)**
* How strong that regime is on the current timeframe (score 0–5)
* When to **DEFEND** existing positions and when to **HARVEST** profits
> **Note:** This is a **single timeframe** tool. The original system uses it on **4H and 1D separately**, then combines scores manually (e.g., using `min(4H, 1D)` for conviction and lot sizing).
---
## Core logic
The script classifies the market into 3 regimes:
* **IC (Iron Condor)** – range/mean-reversion conditions
* **PCS (Put Credit Spread)** – bullish/trend-up conditions
* **CCS (Call Credit Spread)** – bearish/trend-down conditions
For each regime, it builds a **0–5 score** using:
* **EMA stack (8/13/34)** – trend structure
* **ADX (custom DMI-based)** – trend strength vs range
* **Previous-day CPR** – in CPR vs break above/below
* **VWAP (session)** – near/far value
* **Camarilla H3/L3** – for IC context
* **RSI (14)** – used as a **brake**, not a primary signal
* **Daily trend / Daily ADX** – used as **hard gates**, not double-counted as extra points
Then:
* Scores for PCS / CCS / IC are **cross-penalised** (they pull each other down if conflicting)
* Final scores are **smoothed** (current + previous bar) to avoid jumpy signals
The **background colour** shows the current regime and conviction:
* Blue = IC
* Green = PCS
* Red = CCS
* Stronger tint = higher regime score
---
## Scoring details (per timeframe)
**PCS (uptrend, bullish credit spreads)**
* +2 if EMA(8) > EMA(13) > EMA(34)
* +1 if ADX > ADX_TREND
* +1 if close > CPR High
* +1 if close > VWAP
* RSI brake:
* If RSI < 50 → PCS capped at 2
* If RSI > 75 → PCS capped at 3
* Daily gating:
* If daily EMA stack is **not** uptrend → PCS capped at 2
**CCS (downtrend, bearish credit spreads)**
* +2 if EMA(8) < EMA(13) < EMA(34)
* +1 if ADX > ADX_TREND
* +1 if close < CPR Low
* +1 if close < VWAP
* RSI brake:
* If RSI > 50 → CCS capped at 2
* If RSI < 25 → CCS capped at 3
* Daily gating:
* If daily EMA stack is **not** downtrend → CCS capped at 2
**IC (range / mean-reversion)**
* +2 if ADX < ADX_RANGE (low trend)
* +1 if close inside CPR
* +1 if near VWAP
* +0.5 if inside Camarilla H3–L3
* +1 if daily ADX < ADX_RANGE (daily also range-like)
* +0.5 if RSI between 45 and 55 (classic balance zone)
* Daily gating:
* If daily ADX ≥ ADX_TREND → IC capped at 2 (no “strong IC” in strong trends)
**Cross-penalty & smoothing**
* Each regime’s raw score is reduced by **0.5 × max(other two scores)**
* Final IC / PCS / CCS scores are then **smoothed** with previous bar
* Scores are always clipped to ** **
---
## Regime selection
* If one regime has the highest score → that regime is selected.
* If there is a tie or close scores:
* When ADX is high, trend regimes (PCS/CCS) are preferred in the direction of the EMA stack.
* When ADX is low, IC is preferred.
The selected regime’s score is used for:
* Background colour intensity
* Minimum score gate for alerts
* Display in the info panel
---
## DEFEND / HARVEST / REGIME alerts
The script also defines **management signals** using ATR-based buffers and Camarilla breaks:
* **DEFEND**
* Price moving too close to short strikes (PCS/CCS/IC) relative to ATR, or
* Trend breaks through Camarilla with ADX strong
→ Suggests rolling away / widening / converting to reduce risk.
* **HARVEST**
* Price has moved far enough from your short strikes (in ATR multiples) and market is still range-compatible
→ Suggests booking profits / rolling closer / reducing risk.
* **REGIME CHANGED**
* Regime flips (IC ↔ PCS/CCS) with cooldown and minimum score gate
→ Suggests switching playbook (range vs trend) for new entries.
Each of these has a plotshape label plus an `alertcondition()` for TradingView alerts.
---
## UI / Panel
The **top-right panel** (optional) shows:
* Strategy + final regime score (IC / PCS / CCS, x/5)
* ADX / RSI values
* CPR status (Narrow / Normal / Wide + %)
* EMA Stack (Up / Down / Mixed) and EMA tightness
* VWAP proximity (Near / Away)
* Final **IC / PCS / CCS** scores (for this timeframe)
* H3/L3, H4/L4, CPR Low/High and VWAP levels (rounded)
These values are meant to be **read quickly at the decision time** (e.g. near the close of the 4H bar or daily bar).
---
## Intended workflow
1. Run the script on **4H** and **1D** charts separately.
2. For each timeframe, read the panel’s **IC / PCS / CCS scores** and regime.
3. Decide:
* Final regime (IC vs PCS vs CCS)
* Combined score (e.g. `AlignScore = min(Score_4H, Score_1D)`)
4. Map that combined score to **your own lot-size buckets** and trade rules.
5. During the life of the position, use **DEFEND / HARVEST / REGIME** alerts to adjust.
The script does **not** auto-calculate lot size or P&L. It focuses on giving a structured, consistent **market regime + strength + levels + management** layer for weekly option selling.
---
## Disclaimer
This is a discretionary **decision-support tool**, not a guarantee of profit or a replacement for risk management.
No performance is implied or promised. Always size positions and manage risk according to your own capital, rules, and regulations.
NQ-VIX Expected Move LevelsNQ -VIX Daily Price Bands
This indicator plots dynamic intraday price bands for NQ futures based on real-time volatility levels measured by the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index). The bands evolve throughout the trading day, providing volatility-adjusted price targets.
Formulas:
Upper Band = Daily Open + (NQ Price × VIX ÷ √252 ÷ 100)
Lower Band = Daily Open - (NQ Price × VIX ÷ √252 ÷ 100)
The calculation uses the square root of 252 (trading days per year) to convert annualized VIX volatility into an expected daily move, then scales it as a percentage adjustment from the current day's open.
Features:
Real-time band calculation that updates throughout the trading session
Upper band (green) extends from the current day's open
Lower band (red) contracts from the current day's open
Inner upper band (green) at 50% of expected move
Inner lower band (red) at 50% of expected move
Middle Inner upper band (green) at 80% of expected move
Middle Inner lower band (red) at 80% of expected move
Information table displaying:
Current NQ price and VIX level
Daily Open
Expected move
ES-VIX Expected Move - Open basedES-VIX Daily Price Bands
This indicator plots dynamic intraday price bands for ES futures based on real-time volatility levels measured by the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index). The bands evolve throughout the trading day, providing volatility-adjusted price targets.
Formulas:
Upper Band = Daily Open + (ES Price × VIX ÷ √252 ÷ 100)
Lower Band = Daily Open - (ES Price × VIX ÷ √252 ÷ 100)
The calculation uses the square root of 252 (trading days per year) to convert annualized VIX volatility into an expected daily move, then scales it as a percentage adjustment from the current day's open.
Features:
Real-time band calculation that updates throughout the trading session
Upper band (green) extends from the current day's open
Lower band (red) contracts from the current day's open
Inner upper band (green) at 50% of expected move
Inner lower band (red) at 50% of expected move
Middle Inner upper band (green) at 80% of expected move
Middle Inner lower band (red) at 80% of expected move
Information table displaying:
Current ES price and VIX level
Daily Open
Expected move
Single AHR DCA (HM) — AHR Pane (customized quantile)Customized note
The log-regression window LR length controls how long a long-term fair value path is estimated from historical data.
The AHR window AHR window length controls over which historical regime you measure whether the coin is “cheap / expensive”.
When you choose a log-regression window of length L (years) and an AHR window of length A (years), you can intuitively read the indicator as:
“Within the last A years of this regime, relative to the long-term trend estimated over the same A years, the current price is cheap / neutral / expensive.”
Guidelines:
In general, set the AHR window equal to or slightly longer than the LR window:
If the AHR window is much longer than LR, you mix different baselines (different LR regimes) into one distribution.
If the AHR window is much shorter than LR, quantiles mostly reflect a very local slice of history.
For BTC / ETH and other BTC-like assets, you can use relatively long horizons (e.g. LR ≈ 3–5 years, AHR window ≈ 3–8 years).
For major altcoins (BNB / SOL / XRP and similar high-beta assets), it is recommended to use equal or slightly shorter horizons, e.g. LR ≈ 2–3 years, AHR window ≈ 2–3 years.
1. Price series & windows
Working timeframe: daily (1D).
Let the daily close of the current symbol on day t be P_t .
Main length parameters:
HM window: L_HM = maLen (default 200 days)
Log-regression window: L_LR = lrLen (default 1095 days ≈ 3 years)
AHR window (regime window): W = windowLen (default 1095 days ≈ 3 years)
2. Harmonic moving average (HM)
On a window of length L_HM, define the harmonic mean:
HM_t = ^(-1)
Here eps = 1e-10 is used to avoid division by zero.
Intuition: HM is more sensitive to low prices – an extremely low price inside the window will drag HM down significantly.
3. Log-regression baseline (LR)
On a window of length L_LR, perform a linear regression on log price:
Over the last L_LR bars, build the series
x_k = log( max(P_k, eps) ), for k = t-L_LR+1 ... t, and fit
x_k ≈ a + b * k.
The fitted value at the current index t is
log_P_hat_t = a + b * t.
Exponentiate to get the log-regression baseline:
LR_t = exp( log_P_hat_t ).
Interpretation: LR_t is the long-term trend / fair value path of the current regime over the past L_LR days.
4. HM-based AHR (valuation ratio)
At each time t, build an HM-based AHR (valuation multiple):
AHR_t = ( P_t / HM_t ) * ( P_t / LR_t )
Interpretation:
P_t / HM_t : deviation of price from the mid-term HM (e.g. 200-day harmonic mean).
P_t / LR_t : deviation of price from the long-term log-regression trend.
Multiplying them means:
if price is above both HM and LR, “expensiveness” is amplified;
if price is below both, “cheapness” is amplified.
Typical reading:
AHR_t < 1 : price is below both mid-term mean and long-term trend → statistically cheaper.
AHR_t > 1 : price is above both mid-term mean and long-term trend → statistically more expensive.
5. Empirical quantile thresholds (Opp / Risk)
On each new day, whenever AHR_t is valid, add it into a rolling array:
A_t_window = { AHR_{t-W+1}, ..., AHR_t } (at most W = windowLen elements)
On this empirical distribution, define two quantiles:
Opportunity quantile: q_opp (default 15%)
Risk quantile: q_risk (default 65%)
Using standard percentile computation (order statistics + linear interpolation), we get:
Opp threshold:
theta_opp = Percentile( A_t_window, q_opp )
Risk threshold:
theta_risk = Percentile( A_t_window, q_risk )
We also compute the percentile rank of the current AHR inside the same history:
q_now = PercentileRank( A_t_window, AHR_t ) ∈
This yields three valuation zones:
Opportunity zone: AHR_t <= theta_opp
(corresponds to roughly the cheapest ~q_opp% of historical states in the last W days.)
Neutral zone: theta_opp < AHR_t < theta_risk
Risk zone: AHR_t >= theta_risk
(corresponds to roughly the most expensive ~(100 - q_risk)% of historical states in the last W days.)
All quantiles are purely empirical and symbol-specific: they are computed only from the current asset’s own history, without reusing BTC thresholds or assuming cross-asset similarity.
6. DCA simulation (lightweight, rolling window)
Given:
a daily budget B (input: budgetPerDay), and
a DCA simulation window H (input: dcaWindowLen, default 900 days ≈ 2.5 years),
The script applies the following rule on each new day t:
If thresholds are unavailable or AHR_t > theta_risk
→ classify as Risk zone → buy = 0
If AHR_t <= theta_opp
→ classify as Opportunity zone → buy = 2B (double size)
Otherwise (Neutral zone)
→ buy = B (normal DCA)
Daily invested cash:
C_t ∈ {0, B, 2B}
Daily bought quantity:
DeltaQ_t = C_t / P_t
The script keeps rolling sums over the last H days:
Cumulative position:
Q_H = sum_{k=t-H+1..t} DeltaQ_k
Cumulative invested cash:
C_H = sum_{k=t-H+1..t} C_k
Current portfolio value:
PortVal_t = Q_H * P_t
Cumulative P&L:
PnL_t = PortVal_t - C_H
Active days:
number of days in the last H with C_k > 0.
These results are only used to visualize how this AHR-quantile-driven DCA rule would have behaved over the recent regime, and do not constitute financial advice.
