Reversal Radars — Berk v2.0 (Bottom & Top)1) Combined script (Dip+Tepe)
Title:
Reversal Radars — Berk v2.0 (Bottom & Top)
Description (EN):
What it does
Two high-probability reversal detectors in one indicator: a Bottom Reversal Radar (long bias) and a Top Reversal Radar (short/hedge bias). Each radar aggregates multiple conditions into a single score and triggers when Score ≥ Threshold.
How it works
RSI regime shift: Bottom = recovery after oversold (touched 30, crosses up 35). Top = roll-over from overbought (touched 70, crosses down 65).
MACD cross: Bull (up) for bottoms, Bear (down) for tops.
EMA8 filter: Close above (bottom) / below (top) EMA(8).
Structure break (BOS): Close above recent swing high / below recent swing low (lookbackBars, using precomputed highest/lowest to avoid inconsistencies).
EMA200 proximity: Price within a configurable band (default −5% … +2%).
Volume expansion: Volume ≥ SMA(20) × multiplier (default 1.5×).
Divergence: Pivot-confirmed (3/3) bullish (bottom) or bearish (top) RSI divergence.
Scoring: RSI shift +2, divergence +2, MACD +1, EMA8 +1, BOS +1, Volume +1, EMA200 band +1.
Signals & Alerts
Bottom: label “DÖNÜŞ↑” and alert “Dipten Dönüş — Ana Sinyal” when scoreLong ≥ thrLong.
Top: label “DÖNÜŞ↓” and alert “Tepeden Dönüş — Ana Sinyal” when scoreShort ≥ thrShort.
Use Once per bar close for stable alerts.
Inputs
lenRSI, rsiOS=30, rsiRecover=35, rsiOB=70, rsiFall=65, volLen=20, volMult=1.5, lookbackBars=5, ema200 band (−5…+2%), thrLong/thrShort, toggles for Bottom/Top.
Timeframes & tips
Best on Daily/4H. Tighten thresholds (e.g., 4) and raise volume multiplier (1.8–2.0×) on lower TFs or thin liquidity.
No-repaint note
Evaluated on bar close; pivot divergences confirm with a natural ~3-bar delay.
Disclaimer
Educational use only. Not financial advice.
Tags: reversal, divergence, rsi, macd, ema, volume, trend, screener, stocks, crypto, bist
2) Bottom-only (Dip)
Title:
Bottom Reversal Radar — Berk v1.4
Description (EN):
Purpose
Scores bottoming conditions and triggers when Score ≥ Threshold (default 3).
Components
RSI recovery after oversold (30→35), MACD bull cross, close above EMA8, BOS above recent swing high, near-EMA200 band (−5…+2%), volume ≥ SMA(20)×1.5, and pivot-confirmed (3/3) bullish RSI divergence. Weights: RSI +2, Divergence +2, others +1.
Usage
Add to chart, set alert “Dipten Dönüş — Ana Sinyal”, Once per bar close. Works on any timeframe (need ≥200 bars for EMA200). Daily/4H recommended.
No-repaint
Bar-close evaluation; divergence confirms with ~3 bars.
Tags: bottom, reversal, rsi, macd, ema, volume, divergence
3) Top-only (Tepe)
Title:
Top Reversal Radar — Berk v1.0
Description (EN):
Purpose
Detects topping risk and triggers when Score ≥ Threshold (default 3) for exits/hedges.
Components
RSI roll-over from overbought (70→65), MACD bear cross, close below EMA8, BOS below recent swing low, near-EMA200 band, volume ≥ SMA(20)×1.5, and pivot-confirmed (3/3) bearish RSI divergence. Weights: RSI +2, Divergence +2, others +1.
Usage
Add to chart, set alert “Tepeden Dönüş — Ana Sinyal”, Once per bar close. Daily/4H preferred; tighten thresholds on lower TFs.
No-repaint
Bar-close evaluation; divergence confirms with ~3 bars.
Tags: top, reversal, rsi, macd, ema, volume, divergence
Komut dosyalarını "bear" için ara
Andean • Dot Watcher (Exact Math + Optional Alerts)Title: Andean • Dot Watcher (1m + 1000T Alerts)
Description:
The Andean • Dot Watcher is a precision trend-detection tool that plots Bull and Bear “dot” signals for both the 1-minute chart and the 1000-tick chart — all in one indicator. It’s designed for traders who want early confirmation from tick data while also monitoring a traditional time-based chart for added confluence.
Key Features:
Dual-Timeframe Signals – Plots and alerts for both 1m and 1000T chart conditions.
Bull Dots – Green markers indicating bullish dominance or trigger events.
Bear Dots – Red markers indicating bearish dominance or trigger events.
Customizable Dot Mode – Choose between continuous dominance, flip-only signals, or crossover conditions.
Real-Time Alerts – Built-in TradingView alerts for:
1m Bull / 1m Bear signals
1000T Bull / 1000T Bear signals
Alert Flexibility – Users can set alerts for either timeframe independently or combine them for confirmation setups.
Usage Tips:
For fastest reaction, combine 1000T dots with 1-minute dots as a confirmation filter.
If your TradingView plan does not include tick charts, you can still use the 1-minute signals without issue.
Works best when combined with your existing trade plan for entries, exits, and risk management.
Requirements:
1-minute chart signals work on any TradingView plan (including Basic).
1000T tick chart signals require a TradingView plan that supports tick charts.
Trishul Tap Signals (v6) — Liquidity Sweep + Imbalanced RetestTrishul Tap Signals — Liquidity Sweep + Imbalanced Retest
Type: Signal-only indicator (non-repainting)
Style: Price-action + Liquidity + Trend-following
Best for: Intraday & Swing Trading — any liquid market (stocks, futures, crypto, FX)
Timeframes: Any (5m–1D recommended)
Concept
The Trishul Tap setup is a liquidity-driven retest play inspired by order-flow and Smart Money Concepts.
It identifies one-sided impulse candles that also sweep liquidity (grab stops above/below a recent swing), then waits for price to retest the origin of that candle to enter in the trend direction.
Think of it as the three points of a trident:
Trend filter — Only signals with the prevailing trend.
Liquidity sweep — Candle takes out a recent swing high/low (stop-hunt).
Imbalanced retest — Price taps the candle’s open/low (bull) or open/high (bear).
Bullish Setup
Trend Filter: Price above EMA(200).
Impulse Candle:
Green close.
Upper wick ≥ (wickRatio × lower wick).
Lower wick ≤ (oppWickMaxFrac × full range).
Liquidity Sweep: Candle’s high exceeds the highest high of the last sweepLookback bars (excluding current).
Tap Entry: Buy signal triggers when price later taps the candle’s low or open (user choice) within expireBars.
Bearish Setup
Trend Filter: Price below EMA(200).
Impulse Candle:
Red close.
Lower wick ≥ (wickRatio × upper wick).
Upper wick ≤ (oppWickMaxFrac × full range).
Liquidity Sweep: Candle’s low breaks the lowest low of the last sweepLookback bars (excluding current).
Tap Entry: Sell signal triggers when price later taps the candle’s high or open (user choice) within expireBars.
Inputs
Trend EMA Length: Default 200.
Sweep Lookback: Number of bars for liquidity sweep check (default 20).
Wick Ratio: Required size ratio of dominant wick to opposite wick (default 2.0).
Opposite Wick Max %: Opposite wick must be ≤ this fraction of the candle’s range (default 25%).
Tap Tolerance (ticks): How close price must come to the level to count as a tap.
Expire Bars: Max bars after setup to allow a valid tap.
One Signal per Level: If ON, a base is “consumed” after first signal.
Plot Tap Levels: Show horizontal lines for active bases.
Show Setup Labels: Mark the origin sweep candle.
Plots & Visuals
EMA Trend Line — trend filter reference.
Tap Levels —
Green = bullish base (origin candle’s low/open).
Red = bearish base (origin candle’s high/open).
Labels — Show where the setup candle formed.
Signals —
BUY: triangle-up below bar at bullish tap.
SELL: triangle-down above bar at bearish tap.
Alerts
Two built-in conditions:
BUY Signal (Trishul Tap) — triggers on bullish tap.
SELL Signal (Trishul Tap) — triggers on bearish tap.
Set via Alerts panel → Condition = this indicator → Choose signal type.
How to Trade It
Use in liquid markets with clean price structure.
Confirm with HTF structure, volume spikes, or other confluence if desired.
Place stop just beyond the tap level (or ATR-based).
Target 1–2R or trail behind structure.
Why It Works
Liquidity sweep traps traders entering late (breakout buyers or panic sellers) and forces them to exit in the opposite direction, fueling your entry.
Wick imbalance confirms directional aggression by one side.
Trend filter keeps you aligned with the market’s dominant flow.
Retest entry lets you enter at a better price with reduced risk.
Non-Repainting
Setups form only on confirmed bar closes.
Signals trigger only on later bars that tap the stored level.
No lookahead functions are used.
Disclaimer
This script is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Test thoroughly in a simulator or demo before using in live markets. Trading involves risk.
FVG + Bank Level Targeting w/ Alert TriggerDescription:
FVG + Bank Level Targeting w/ Alert Trigger is an intraday trading tool that combines Fair Value Gap (FVG) detection with dynamic institutional targeting using prior-day, weekly, and monthly high/low "Bank Levels." When a Fair Value Gap is detected, the script projects a logical target using the closest bank level in price's direction, and visually extends that level on your chart.
This tool is designed to help traders anticipate where price is most likely to move after an FVG appears — and alert them when price breaks through key target zones.
How It Works:
* Bank Level Calculation:
The indicator calculates Daily, Weekly, and Monthly high and low levels from the previous bar of each respective timeframe.
These are optionally plotted on the chart with a slight tick offset to avoid overlap with price.
* FVG Detection:
Bullish FVGs are defined by a gap between the low of the current candle and the high two candles prior, with a confirming middle candle.
Bearish FVGs follow the reverse pattern.
Once detected, the script finds the nearest unbroken institutional level (Bank Level) in the direction of the FVG and anchors a target line at that price level.
* Target Line Projection:
The script draws a persistent horizontal line (not just a plotted value) at the selected bank level.
These lines automatically extend a set number of bars into the future for clarity and trade planning.
* Breakout Detection:
When price crosses above a Bull Target or below a Bear Target, the script triggers a breakout condition.
These breakouts are useful for trade continuation or reversal setups.
* Alerts:
Built-in alert conditions notify you in real time when price crosses above or below a target.
These can be used to set TradingView alerts for your preferred Futures symbols or intraday pairs.
Parameters:
Tick Offset Multiplier: Adds distance between price and plotted levels.
Show Daily/Weekly/Monthly Levels: Toggle for each institutional level group.
FVG Extend Right (bars): Controls how far the target lines extend into the future.
Color Controls: Customize colors for FVG fill and target lines.
Use Case:
This indicator is designed for traders who want to:
Trade continuation or reversal moves around institutional price zones
Integrate Fair Value Gap concepts with more logical, historically anchored price targets
Trigger alerts when market structure evolves around key levels
It is especially useful for intraday Futures traders on the 15-minute chart or lower, but adapts well to any instrument with strong reactionary behavior at prior session highs/lows.
VWAP Multi-TimeframeThis is a multi-timeframe VWAP indicator that provides volume weighted average price calculations for the following time periods:
15min
30min
1H
2H
4H
6H
8H
12H
1D
1W
1M
3M
6M
1Y
You can use the lower timeframes for short term trend control areas and use the longer timeframes for long term trend control areas. Trade in the direction of the trend and watch for price reactions that you can trade when price gets close to or touches any of these levels.
This indicator will provide a data plot value of 1 for bullish when price is above all VWAPs that are turned on, -1 for bearish when price is below all VWAPs that are turned on and 0 for neutral when price is not above or below all VWAPs. Use this 1, -1, 0 value as a filter on your signal generating indicators so that you can prevent signals from coming in unless they are in the same direction as the VWAP trend.
Features
Trend direction value of 1, -1 or 0 to send to external indicators so you can filter your signal generating indicators using the VWAP trend.
Trend table that shows you whether price is above or below all of the major VWAPs. This includes the daily, weekly, monthly and yearly VWAPs.
Trend coloring between each VWAP and the close price of each candle so you can easily identify the trend direction.
Customization
Set the source value to use for all of the VWAP calculations. The default is HLC3.
Turn on or off each VWAP.
Change the color of each VWAP line.
Change the thickness of each VWAP line.
Turn on or off labels for each VWAP or turn all labels on or off at once.
Change the offset length from the current bar to the label text.
Change the label text color.
Turn on or off trend coloring for each VWAP.
Change the color for up trends and down trends.
Turn on or off the trend direction display table.
Change the location of the trend direction display table.
Adjust the background and text colors on the trend direction display table.
How To Use The Trend Direction Filtering Feature
The indicator will provide a data plot value of 1 for bullish when price is above all of the VWAPs that are turned on, a value of -1 for bearish when price is below all of the VWAPS that are turned on and a value of 0 for neutral when price is above and below some of the VWAPs that are turned on.
The name of the value to use with your external indicators will show up as: VWAP Multi-Timeframe: Trend Direction To Send To External Indicators
Make sure to use that as your source on your external indicators to get the correct values.
This 1, -1 or 0 value can then be used by another external indicator to tell the indicator what is allowed to do. For instance if you have another indicator that provides buy and sell signals, you can use this trend direction value to prevent your other indicator from giving a sell signal when the VWAP trend is bullish or prevent your other indicator from giving a buy signal when the VWAP trend is bearish.
You will need to program your other indicators to use this trend filtering feature, but this indicator is already set up with this filtering code so you can use it with any other indicator that you choose to filter(if you know how to customize pine script).
Markets You Can Use This Indicator On
This indicator uses volume and price to calculate values, so it will work on any chart that provides volume and price data.
Spice • Micro Suite (T/r & B/r)What it is
A single Pine v5 indicator that stacks:
EMA ribbon + a “special” EMA (11 vs 34) line that flips color on trend.
MTF-RSI “pressure” check with simple up/down arrows.
Bollinger-Band re-entry system with Top/Bottom triggers (T/B) and confirmations (r) in the next N bars.
Classic candlestick add-ons: 3-Line Strike and Leledc exhaustion dots.
Your Micro Dots engine (ATR-based regime + Variable Moving Average filter) + an optional VMA trend line.
Alerts for all the above.
Key signals (what prints on the chart)
EMAs (20/50/100/200): plotted faintly; EMA-34 is drawn and colored by the 11>34 trend.
RSI arrows
Checks RSI(6) on the current TF and (optionally) 5m/15m/30m/1h/4h/1D.
Down arrow: current RSI > 70 and the selected higher TF RSIs are also > 70 (pressure cluster just cooled; barssince(redZone)<2).
Up arrow: current RSI < 30 and selected higher TFs also < 30 (barssince(greenZone)<2).
Bollinger Reversals (your update)
T (Top trigger): first close back inside the upper BB (crossunder(close, upper)).
B (Bottom trigger): first close back inside the lower BB (crossover(close, lower)).
r (Confirm): within the next confirmBars bars (input), price also
closes below the T-bar’s low → top r above bar
closes above the B-bar’s high → bottom r below bar
Bar tinting
Only the T/B trigger bars are tinted (yellow/orange). Everything else stays your normal candle colors (unless you add the optional “trend candles” block I gave you).
3-Line Strike
Prints a small green/red circle when the 3-line strike pattern appears (bull/bear).
Leledc Exhaustion
Calculates a running buy/sell index; prints a small ∘ at major highs/lows when exhaustion conditions hit (major==-1 high, major==1 low).
Micro Dots (your second script, merged)
ATR “micro supertrend” defines regime (up/down).
A fast Variable Moving Average + a simple MA(18) filter.
Green dot below bar when: VMA < price, price > MA(18), regime up, and VMA not pointing down.
Red dot above bar for the bearish mirror.
Separate VMA trend line (length = Fast/Med/Slow) that colors green/red/orange by slope.
Inputs you’ll care about
Top/Bot Reversal → confirmBars (how many bars you allow to confirm the T/B trigger).
RSI Timeframes → toggle which HTFs must agree with the OB/OS condition.
EMAs → show/hide and lengths.
BB → show/hide basis/bands (used for T/B even if hidden).
Micro → show dots, show VMA line, choose intensity (Fast/Med/Slow).
Alerts
Prebuilt alerts for: RSI Up/Down, T/B triggers, T/B confirmations, 3-Line Strike bull/bear, Leledc highs/lows, EMA crosses (20/50/100/200), the special 11/34 trend change, Micro Dots, and VMA price cross. (Alert messages are const strings so they compile cleanly.)
How to read clusters (quick playbook)
Reversal short: see T on/near upper band → get an r within your window → bonus confidence if an RSI down arrow or Leledc ∘ high shows up around the same time.
Reversal long: mirror with B then r, plus RSI up arrow / Leledc ∘ low.
Continuation: ignore lone T/B if Micro Dot stays green (or red) and EMA-11 > EMA-34 remains true.
Why your candles look “normal”
By design, the script only colors bars on T or B trigger bars. If you want always-on trend candles, use the small block I gave you to color by EMA(20/50) (or any rule you like) and let T/B override on trigger bars.
Volume/Price Movement Indicator## Volume/Price Movement Indicator (VPM)
The **Volume/Price Movement Indicator (VPM)** is a technical analysis tool designed to identify the strength and potential direction of a trend by combining price momentum with volume analysis. Unlike indicators that only look at price, VPM uses volume as a confirming factor to gauge the conviction behind a price move. This helps traders distinguish between strong, high-conviction trends and weak, low-conviction movements that may be prone to reversal.
***
### Key Concepts
* **Price Trend**: The indicator smooths out daily price changes to determine the underlying trend direction. A positive price trend suggests upward momentum, while a negative trend suggests downward momentum.
* **Volume Analysis**: The VPM calculates a **Volume Ratio**, which compares the current bar's volume to its moving average. A high volume ratio indicates that the current volume is significantly higher than recent average volume, suggesting strong market participation. The **Volume Threshold Multiplier** is used to define what constitutes "high volume."
* **Net Pressure**: This component measures the difference between buying pressure and selling pressure, providing an additional layer of confirmation. Positive net pressure indicates that buying activity is outpacing selling, and vice versa.
***
### How to Use the Indicator
The VPM plots its findings on a histogram below the main chart, using colors to clearly signal the market's state.
* **🟢 Strong Bull (Green)**: This is the most powerful bullish signal. It indicates a clear upward price trend that is confirmed by both high volume and positive net pressure. This is a strong signal of conviction and potential continuation of the uptrend.
* **🔵 Weak Bull (Lime)**: This signal indicates a clear upward price trend, but with low volume. The positive net pressure suggests buying is still dominant, but the lack of high volume means there may not be strong market conviction. This signal suggests caution and may precede a consolidation or reversal.
* **🔴 Strong Bear (Red)**: The strongest bearish signal. It indicates a clear downward price trend confirmed by high volume and negative net pressure. This suggests strong selling conviction and a high probability of the downtrend continuing.
* **🟠 Weak Bear (Orange)**: This indicates a clear downward price trend but with low volume. Negative net pressure confirms selling dominance, but the low volume suggests a lack of strong conviction. Like the "Weak Bull" signal, this suggests caution.
* **⚫ Neutral (Gray)**: This signal is displayed when there is no clear trend or when price and volume are diverging. It's a signal of market indecision and suggests waiting for a clearer signal.
***
### Indicator Settings
* **Trend Length**: This input controls the sensitivity of the price trend calculation. A smaller value will make the indicator more responsive to short-term price changes, while a larger value will filter out noise and focus on longer-term trends.
* **Volume MA Length**: This determines the length of the moving average used as a baseline for volume. A longer length will make the "high volume" condition harder to meet.
* **Volume Threshold Multiplier**: This is a key setting for tuning the indicator. It determines how much higher the current volume must be than its moving average to be considered "high volume." For example, a value of `1.2` means volume must be at least 20% higher than the moving average to trigger a high-volume signal.
Linh's Anomaly Radar v2What this script does
It’s an event detector for price/volume anomalies that often precede or confirm moves.
It watches a bunch of patterns (Wyckoff tests, squeezes, failed breakouts, turnover bursts, etc.), applies robust z-scores, optional trend filters, cooldowns (to avoid spam), and then fires:
A shape/label on the bar,
A row in the mini panel (top-right),
A ready-made alertcondition you can hook into.
How to add & set up (TradingView)
Paste the script → Save → Add to chart on Daily first (works on any TF).
Open Settings → Inputs:
General
• Use Robust Z (MAD): more outlier-resistant; keep on.
• Z Lookback: 60 bars is ~3 months; bump to 120 for slower regimes.
• Cooldown: min bars to wait before the same signal can fire again (default 5).
• Use trend filter: if on, “bullish” signals only fire above SMA(tfLen), “bearish” below.
Thresholds: fine-tune sensitivity (defaults are sane).
To create alerts: Right-click chart → Add alert
Condition: Linh’s Anomaly Radar v2 → choose a specific signal or Composite (Σ).
Options: “Once per bar close” (recommended).
Customize message if you want ticker/timeframe in your phone push.
The mini panel (top-right)
Signal column: short code (see cheat sheet below).
Fired column: a dot “•” means that on the latest bar this signal fired.
Score (right column): total count of signals that fired this bar.
Σ≥N shows your composite threshold (how many must fire to trigger the “Composite” alert).
Shapes & codes (what’s what)
Code Name (category) What it’s looking for Why it matters
STL Stealth Volume z(volume)>5 & ** z(return)
EVR Effort vs Result squeeze z(vol)>3 & z(TR)<−0.5 Heavy effort, tiny spread → absorption
TGV Tight+Heavy (HL/ATR)<0.6 & z(vol)>3 Tight bar + heavy tape → pro activity
CLS Accumulation cluster ≥3 of last 5 bars: up, vol↑, close near high Classic accumulation footprint
GAP Open drive failure Big gap not filled (≥80%) & vol↑ One-sided open stalls → fade risk
BB↑ BB squeeze breakout Squeeze (z(BBWidth)<−1.3) → close > upperBB & vol↑ Regime shift with confirmation
ER↑ Effort→Result inversion Down day on vol then next bar > prior high Demand overwhelms supply
OBV OBV divergence OBV slope up & ** z(ret20)
WER Wide Effort, Opposite Result z(vol)>3, close+1 Selling into strength / distribution
NS No-Supply (Wyckoff) Down bar, HL<0.6·ATR, vol << avg Sellers absent into weakness
ND No-Demand (Wyckoff) Up bar, HL<0.6·ATR, vol << avg Buyers absent into strength
VAC Liquidity Vacuum z(vol)<−1.5 & ** z(ret)
UTD UTAD (failed breakout) Breaks swing-high, closes back below, vol↑ Stop-run, reversal risk
SPR Spring (failed breakdown) Breaks swing-low, closes back above, vol↑ Bear trap, reversal risk
PIV Pocket Pivot Up bar; vol > max down-vol in lookback Quiet base → sudden demand
NR7 Narrow Range 7 + Vol HL is 7-bar low & z(vol)>2 Coiled spring with participation
52W 52-wk breakout quality New 52-wk close high + squeeze + vol↑ High-quality breakouts
VvK Vol-of-Vol kink z(ATR20,200)>0.5 & z(ATR5,60)<0 Long-vol wakes up, short-vol compresses
TAC Turnover acceleration SMA3 vol / SMA20 vol > 1.8 & muted return Participation surging before move
RBd RSI Bullish div Price LL, RSI HL, vol z>1 Exhaustion of sellers
RS↑ RSI Bearish div Price HH, RSI LH, vol z>1 Exhaustion of buyers
Σ Composite Count of all fired signals ≥ threshold High-conviction bar
Placement:
Triangles up (below bar) → bullish-leaning events.
Triangles down (above bar) → bearish-leaning events.
Circles → neutral context (VAC, VvK, Composite).
Key inputs (quick reference)
General
Use Robust Z (MAD): keep on for noisy tickers.
Z Lookback (lenZ): 60 default; 120 if you want fewer alerts.
Trend filter: when on, bullish signals require close > SMA(tfLen), bearish require <.
Cooldown: prevents repeated firing of the same signal within N bars.
Phase-1 thresholds (core)
Stealth: vol z > 5, |ret z| < 1.
EVR: vol z > 3, TR z < −0.5.
Tight+Heavy: (HL/ATR) < 0.6, vol z > 3.
Cluster: window=5, min=3 strong bars.
GapFail: gap/ATR ≥1.5, fill <80%, vol z > 2.
BB Squeeze: z(BBWidth)<−1.3 then breakout with vol z > 2.
Eff→Res Up: prev bar heavy down → current bar > prior high.
OBV Div: OBV uptrend + |z(ret20)|<0.3.
Phase-2 thresholds (extras)
WER: vol z > 3, close1.
No-Supply/No-Demand: tight bar & very light volume vs SMA20.
Vacuum: vol z < −1.5, |ret z|>1.5.
UTAD/Spring: swing lookback N (default 20), vol z > 2.
Pocket Pivot: lookback for prior down-vol max (default 10).
NR7: 7-bar narrowest range + vol z > 2.
52W Quality: new 52-wk high + squeeze + vol z > 2.
VoV Kink: z(ATR20,200)>0.5 AND z(ATR5,60)<0.
Turnover Accel: SMA3/SMA20 > 1.8 and |ret z|<1.
RSI Divergences: compare to n bars back (default 14).
How to use it (playbooks)
A) Daily scan workflow
Run on Daily for your VN watchlist.
Turn Composite (Σ) alert on with Σ≥2 or ≥3 to reduce noise.
When a bar fires Σ (or a fav combo like STL + BB↑), drop to 60-min to time entries.
B) Breakout quality check
Look for 52W together with BB↑, TAC, and OBV.
If WER/ND appear near highs → downgrade the breakout.
C) Spring/UTAD reversals
If SPR fires near major support and RBd confirms → long bias with stop below spring low.
If UTD + WER/RS↑ near resistance → short/fade with stop above UTAD high.
D) Accumulation basing
During bases, you want CLS, OBV, TGV, STL, NR7.
A pocket pivot (PIV) can be your early add; manage risk below base lows.
Tuning tips
Too many signals? Raise stealthVolZ to 5.5–6, evrVolZ to 3.5, use Σ≥3.
Fast movers? Lower bbwZthr to −1.0 (less strict squeeze), keep trend filter on.
Illiquid tickers? Keep MAD z-scores on, increase lookbacks (e.g., lenZ=120).
Limitations & good habits
First lenZ bars on a new symbol are less reliable (incomplete z-window).
Some ideas (VWAP magnet, close auction spikes, ETF/foreign flows, options skew) need intraday/external feeds — not included here.
Pine can’t “screen” across the whole market; set alerts or cycle your watchlist.
Quick troubleshooting
Compilation errors: make sure you’re on Pine v6; don’t nest functions in if blocks; each var int must be declared on its own line.
No shapes firing: check trend filter (maybe price is below SMA and you’re waiting for bullish signals), and verify thresholds aren’t too strict.
VG 1.0This script is an enhanced version of SMC Structures and FVG with an advanced JSON-based alert system designed for seamless integration with webhooks and external applications (such as a Swift iOS app).
What it does
It detects and plots on the chart:
Fair Value Gaps (FVG) — bullish and bearish.
Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHOCH).
Key Fibonacci levels (0.786, 0.705, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382) based on the current structure.
Additionally, it generates custom alerts:
FVG Alerts:
When a new FVG is created (bullish or bearish).
When an existing FVG gets mitigated.
BOS & CHOCH Alerts:
Includes breakout direction (bullish or bearish).
Fibonacci Alerts:
When price touches a configured level, with adjustable tick tolerance.
Alerts can be:
Declarative (alertcondition) for manual setup inside TradingView.
Programmatic (alert() JSON) for automated webhook delivery to your system or mobile app.
Key Features
Optional close confirmation to filter out false signals.
Standardized JSON format for direct API or mobile app integration.
Webhook-ready for automated push notifications.
Full visual control with lines, boxes, and labels.
Configurable tick tolerance for Fibonacci “touch” detection.
ICT SMC Custom — BOS/MSS + OB + FVGWant me to fill that box? Here’s a ready‑to‑paste description for your publish screen:
⸻
ICT SMC Custom — BOS/MSS + OB + FVG (Crypto‑friendly)
A clean Smart Money Concepts tool that marks Break of Structure (BOS), Market Structure Shift (MSS), Order Blocks (OB), and Fair Value Gaps (FVG) with bold, easy‑to‑see visuals. Built for crypto but works on any market and timeframe.
What it does
• BOS & MSS detection with optional body/wick logic
• Order Blocks: auto‑draws the last opposite candle before a BOS, keeps only the most recent N, and fades when mitigated
• FVGs: 3‑candle gaps with a minimum size filter and a cap on how many to keep
• HTF Swings (optional): plots higher‑timeframe pivot highs/lows for top‑down context
• Alerts for BOS/MSS and FVG formation
Inputs
• Swing pivot length (default 3): sensitivity for structure pivots
• Use candle bodies for breaks: close vs level (on) or wicks (off)
• Show BOS/MSS labels, Show FVG, Show Order Blocks
• Min FVG size (ticks) and Max boxes to keep for FVG/OB
• OB uses candle body: body range vs full wick range
• Show higher timeframe swings + HTF timeframe
• Bullish/Bearish colors
How it works
• BOS triggers when price breaks the last opposite swing.
• MSS flags when the break flips the prior bias.
• OB is the most recent opposite candle prior to BOS; it’s marked and later greyed out once price closes through it (mitigation).
• FVG is detected when candle 1’s high < candle 3’s low (bear) or candle 1’s low > candle 3’s high (bull).
Alerts included
• BOS Up / BOS Down
• MSS Up / MSS Down
• FVG Up / FVG Down
Tips
• Start on 15m/1h for crypto, pivot length 3–5.
• Turn Use candle bodies ON for stricter confirmations, OFF for more signals.
• If boxes look cluttered, lower “Max boxes to keep.”
Note: This is a visual/educational tool, not financial advice. Always confirm with your own plan and risk management.
Engulfing & Pin Bar Breakout StrategyOverview
This strategy automates a classic, powerful trading methodology based on identifying key candlestick reversal patterns and trading the subsequent price breakout. It is designed to be a complete, "set-and-go" system with built-in risk and position size management.
The core logic operates on the 1-Hour timeframe, scanning for four distinct high-probability reversal signals: two bullish and two bearish. An entry is only triggered when the market confirms the signal by breaking a key price level, aiming to capture momentum following a potential shift in market sentiment.
The Strategy Logic
The system is composed of two distinct modules: Bullish (Long) and Bearish (Short).
🐂 Bullish (Long) Setup
The script initiates a long trade based on the following strict criteria:
Signal: Identifies either a Hammer or a Bullish Engulfing pattern. These patterns often indicate that sellers are losing control and buyers are stepping in.
Confirmation: Waits for the very next candle after the signal.
Entry Trigger: A long position is automatically opened as soon as the price breaks above the high of the signal candle.
Stop Loss: Immediately set just below the low of the signal candle.
Take Profit: A fixed target is placed at a 1:5 Risk/Reward Ratio.
🐻 Bearish (Short) Setup
The script initiates a short trade based on the following strict criteria:
Signal: Identifies either a Shooting Star or a Bearish Engulfing pattern. These patterns suggest buying pressure is fading and sellers are taking over.
Confirmation: Waits for the very next candle after the signal.
Entry Trigger: A short position is automatically opened as soon as the price breaks below the low of the signal candle.
Stop Loss: Immediately set just above the high of the signal candle.
Take Profit: A fixed target is placed at a 1:4 Risk/Reward Ratio.
Key Feature: Automated Risk Management
This strategy is designed for disciplined trading. You do not need to calculate position sizes manually.
Fixed Risk: The script automatically calculates the correct position size to risk exactly 2% of your total account equity on every single trade.
Dynamic Sizing: The position size will adjust based on the distance between your entry price and your stop loss for each specific setup, ensuring a consistent risk profile.
How To Use
Apply the script to your chosen chart (e.g., BTC/USD).
Crucially, set your chart's timeframe to 1-Hour (H1). The strategy is specifically calibrated for this interval.
Navigate to the "Strategy Tester" tab below your chart to view backtest results, including net profit, win rate, and individual trades.
Disclaimer: This script is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. All trading involves substantial risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please use this tool responsibly and at your own risk.
Mutanabby_AI | Algo Pro Strategy# Mutanabby_AI | Algo Pro Strategy: Advanced Candlestick Pattern Trading System
## Strategy Overview
The Mutanabby_AI Algo Pro Strategy represents a systematic approach to automated trading based on advanced candlestick pattern recognition and multi-layered technical filtering. This strategy transforms traditional engulfing pattern analysis into a comprehensive trading system with sophisticated risk management and flexible position sizing capabilities.
The strategy operates on a long-only basis, entering positions when bullish engulfing patterns meet specific technical criteria and exiting when bearish engulfing patterns indicate potential trend reversals. The system incorporates multiple confirmation layers to enhance signal reliability while providing comprehensive customization options for different trading approaches and risk management preferences.
## Core Algorithm Architecture
The strategy foundation relies on bullish and bearish engulfing candlestick pattern recognition enhanced through technical analysis filtering mechanisms. Entry signals require simultaneous satisfaction of four distinct criteria: confirmed bullish engulfing pattern formation, candle stability analysis indicating decisive price action, RSI momentum confirmation below specified thresholds, and price decline verification over adjustable lookback periods.
The candle stability index measures the ratio between candlestick body size and total range including wicks, ensuring only well-formed patterns with clear directional conviction generate trading signals. This filtering mechanism eliminates indecisive market conditions where pattern reliability diminishes significantly.
RSI integration provides momentum confirmation by requiring oversold conditions before entry signal generation, ensuring alignment between pattern formation and underlying momentum characteristics. The RSI threshold remains fully adjustable to accommodate different market conditions and volatility environments.
Price decline verification examines whether current prices have decreased over a specified period, confirming that bullish engulfing patterns occur after meaningful downward movement rather than during sideways consolidation phases. This requirement enhances the probability of successful reversal pattern completion.
## Advanced Position Management System
The strategy incorporates dual position sizing methodologies to accommodate different account sizes and risk management approaches. Percentage-based position sizing calculates trade quantities as equity percentages, enabling consistent risk exposure across varying account balances and market conditions. This approach proves particularly valuable for systematic trading approaches and portfolio management applications.
Fixed quantity sizing provides precise control over trade sizes independent of account equity fluctuations, offering predictable position management for specific trading strategies or when implementing precise risk allocation models. The system enables seamless switching between sizing methods through simple configuration adjustments.
Position quantity calculations integrate seamlessly with TradingView's strategy testing framework, ensuring accurate backtesting results and realistic performance evaluation across different market conditions and time periods. The implementation maintains consistency between historical testing and live trading applications.
## Comprehensive Risk Management Framework
The strategy features dual stop loss methodologies addressing different risk management philosophies and market analysis approaches. Entry price-based stop losses calculate stop levels as fixed percentages below entry prices, providing predictable risk exposure and consistent risk-reward ratio maintenance across all trades.
The percentage-based stop loss system enables precise risk control by limiting maximum loss per trade to predetermined levels regardless of market volatility or entry timing. This approach proves essential for systematic trading strategies requiring consistent risk parameters and capital preservation during adverse market conditions.
Lowest low-based stop losses identify recent price support levels by analyzing minimum prices over adjustable lookback periods, placing stops below these technical levels with additional buffer percentages. This methodology aligns stop placement with market structure rather than arbitrary percentage calculations, potentially improving stop loss effectiveness during normal market fluctuations.
The lookback period adjustment enables optimization for different timeframes and market characteristics, with shorter periods providing tighter stops for active trading and longer periods offering broader stops suitable for position trading approaches. Buffer percentage additions ensure stops remain below obvious support levels where other market participants might place similar orders.
## Visual Customization and Interface Design
The strategy provides comprehensive visual customization through eight predefined color schemes designed for different chart backgrounds and personal preferences. Color scheme options include Classic bright green and red combinations, Ocean themes featuring blue and orange contrasts, Sunset combinations using gold and crimson, and Neon schemes providing high visibility through bright color selections.
Professional color schemes such as Forest, Royal, and Fire themes offer sophisticated alternatives suitable for business presentations and professional trading environments. The Custom color scheme enables precise color selection through individual color picker controls, maintaining maximum flexibility for specific visual requirements.
Label styling options accommodate different chart analysis preferences through text bubble, triangle, and arrow display formats. Size adjustments range from tiny through huge settings, ensuring appropriate visual scaling across different screen resolutions and chart configurations. Text color customization maintains readability across various chart themes and background selections.
## Signal Quality Enhancement Features
The strategy incorporates signal filtering mechanisms designed to eliminate repetitive signal generation during choppy market conditions. The disable repeating signals option prevents consecutive identical signals until opposing conditions occur, reducing overtrading during consolidation phases and improving overall signal quality.
Signal confirmation requirements ensure all technical criteria align before trade execution, reducing false signal occurrence while maintaining reasonable trading frequency for active strategies. The multi-layered approach balances signal quality against opportunity frequency through adjustable parameter optimization.
Entry and exit visualization provides clear trade identification through customizable labels positioned at relevant price levels. Stop loss visualization displays active risk levels through colored line plots, ensuring complete transparency regarding current risk management parameters during live trading operations.
## Implementation Guidelines and Optimization
The strategy performs effectively across multiple timeframes with optimal results typically occurring on intermediate timeframes ranging from fifteen minutes through four hours. Higher timeframes provide more reliable pattern formation and reduced false signal occurrence, while lower timeframes increase trading frequency at the expense of some signal reliability.
Parameter optimization should focus on RSI threshold adjustments based on market volatility characteristics and candlestick pattern timeframe analysis. Higher RSI thresholds generate fewer but potentially higher quality signals, while lower thresholds increase signal frequency with corresponding reliability considerations.
Stop loss method selection depends on trading style preferences and market analysis philosophy. Entry price-based stops suit systematic approaches requiring consistent risk parameters, while lowest low-based stops align with technical analysis methodologies emphasizing market structure recognition.
## Performance Considerations and Risk Disclosure
The strategy operates exclusively on long positions, making it unsuitable for bear market conditions or extended downtrend periods. Users should consider market environment analysis and broader trend assessment before implementing the strategy during adverse market conditions.
Candlestick pattern reliability varies significantly across different market conditions, with higher reliability typically occurring during trending markets compared to ranging or volatile conditions. Strategy performance may deteriorate during periods of reduced pattern effectiveness or increased market noise.
Risk management through stop loss implementation remains essential for capital preservation during adverse market movements. The strategy does not guarantee profitable outcomes and requires proper position sizing and risk management to prevent significant capital loss during unfavorable trading periods.
## Technical Specifications
The strategy utilizes standard TradingView Pine Script functions ensuring compatibility across all supported instruments and timeframes. Default configuration employs 14-period RSI calculations, adjustable candle stability thresholds, and customizable price decline verification periods optimized for general market conditions.
Initial capital settings default to $10,000 with percentage-based equity allocation, though users can adjust these parameters based on account size and risk tolerance requirements. The strategy maintains detailed trade logs and performance metrics through TradingView's integrated backtesting framework.
Alert integration enables real-time notification of entry and exit signals, stop loss executions, and other significant trading events. The comprehensive alert system supports automated trading applications and manual trade management approaches through detailed signal information provision.
## Conclusion
The Mutanabby_AI Algo Pro Strategy provides a systematic framework for candlestick pattern trading with comprehensive risk management and position sizing flexibility. The strategy's strength lies in its multi-layered confirmation approach and sophisticated customization options, enabling adaptation to various trading styles and market conditions.
Successful implementation requires understanding of candlestick pattern analysis principles and appropriate parameter optimization for specific market characteristics. The strategy serves traders seeking automated execution of proven technical analysis techniques while maintaining comprehensive control over risk management and position sizing methodologies.
EMA Pullback Entry SignalsEMA Pullback Entry Signals is a tool designed to help traders identify trend continuation opportunities by detecting price pullbacks toward a slow EMA (Exponential Moving Average) during trending conditions.
This indicator combines moving average crossovers, price interaction with EMAs, and optional filtering to improve the timing and quality of trend entries.
Core Features:
Golden Cross / Death Cross Detection
Golden Cross: Fast EMA crossing above Slow EMA
Death Cross: Fast EMA crossing below Slow EMA
Optional X-shaped markers for crossover visualization
Pullback Signal on Slow EMA
Green triangle: Price crosses up through the slow EMA during a bullish trend
Red triangle: Price crosses down through the slow EMA during a bearish trend
Designed to capture continuation entries after a trend pullback
Optional Fast EMA Signals
Green arrow: Price crosses above fast EMA in a bull trend
Red arrow: Price crosses below fast EMA in a bear trend
Helps confirm minor retracements or short-term momentum shifts
Sideways Market Filter
Suppresses signals when the fast and slow EMAs are too close
Prevents entries during low-trend or choppy price action
Cooldown Timer
Enforces a minimum bar interval between signals to reduce overtrading
Helps avoid multiple entries from clustered signals
Custom Alerts
Alerts available for all signal types
Include ticker and timeframe in each alert message
Configurable Settings:
Fast and slow EMA lengths1
Toggle individual signal types (pullbacks, fast EMA crosses, crossovers)
Enable/disable cooldown logic and set bar duration
Sideways market detection sensitivity (EMA proximity threshold)
Primary Use Case
This script is most useful for trend-following traders seeking to enter pullbacks after a trend is established. When the price retraces to the slow EMA and then resumes in the trend direction, it can offer high-quality continuation setups. Works well across timeframes and markets.
anand ha + RsiHow it works:
Green Line: When RSI > 50 AND Heikin Ashi is bullish (uptrend)
Red Line: When RSI < 50 AND Heikin Ashi is bearish (downtrend)
The line dynamically positions itself below price during uptrends and above price during downtrends
Uses ATR to maintain appropriate distance from price action
Includes subtle background fill between price and the trend line
Key Features:
Single clean trend line (no candles, no extra indicators)
Color changes based on trend direction
Self-adjusting position using ATR
Smooth transitions to avoid whipsaws
Minimal visual clutter, just like SuperTrend
The line will stay green below price when both RSI is above 50 and Heikin Ashi shows bullish momentum, and red above price when both conditions turn bearish. This gives you a clear visual trend following system in a simple line format.
VOID OCULUS MACHINE V8 – ASSASSIN MODEVOID OCULUS MACHINE V8 – ASSASSIN MODE
Version 8.0 | Pine Script v6
Purpose & Originality
VOID OCULUS MACHINE V8 – ASSASSIN MODE brings together four advanced trading filters—EMA crossovers, TRIX momentum, VWAP band positioning, and a proprietary “Predictive Cloud”—into a single, high-precision entry system. Rather than relying on any one signal, it calculates a confidence score combining trend, momentum, volume, and volatility cues, then triggers only the highest-probability setups once a user-defined threshold is met. This multi-layer architecture offers traders laser-focused entries (“Assassin Mode”) with built-in risk (stop) and reward (targets) visualization.
How It Works & Component Rationale
EMA Trend Alignment
Fast EMA (9) vs. Slow EMA (21): Captures short-term versus medium-term trend. A bullish bias requires EMA9 > EMA21, bearish bias EMA9 < EMA21.
TRIX Momentum Filter
A triple-smoothed EMA oscillator over 15 bars, expressed as a percentage change. Positive TRIX confirms upward momentum; negative TRIX confirms downward momentum.
Gaussian Noise Reduction
Dual 5-period EMA smoothing of price removes short-term noise, creating a “cloud base.” Entries only fire when price interacts favorably with this smoothed baseline.
VWAP Band Confirmation (Optional)
Calculates session VWAP ± one standard deviation over 20 bars, plotting upper/lower bands. Traders can require price to sit above/below VWAP mid for trend confirmation.
Predictive Cloud Overlay
A dynamic band (Gaussian ± ATR) forecasts a near-term “value zone.” Pullback and reversal entries can occur as price re-enters or breaks out of this cloud.
Confidence Scoring
Starts at 0 and adds:
+30 for EMA trend alignment (bull or bear)
+20 for volume spike (>20-bar SMA)
+20 for non-zero TRIX slope
+20 for ATR expansion (volatility ramping)
+10 if price is above or below VWAP mid (if VWAP filter is enabled)
Only fires signals when confidence ≥ 60% (configurable), ensuring multi-factor confluence.
Entry Type Differentiation
Breakout: Price pierces prior 10-bar high/low on volume and ATR expansion.
Pullback: Trend bias plus a crossover of price with EMA9.
Reversal: Price crosses back into the Predictive Cloud from outside, confirmed by VWAP cross.
Automated Trade Visualization
On each signal, clears previous objects, plots a “BUY (xx%) – ” or “SELL (xx%) – ” label, four tiered ATR-based targets (1×, 1.5×, 2×, 3.5×), and a stop-loss (ATR × 1.5).
Inputs & Customization
Input Description Default
Fast EMA Length for short-term trend EMA 9
Slow EMA Length for medium-term trend EMA 21
TRIX Length Period for triple-smoothed momentum oscillator 15
Stop Multiplier ATR multiple for stop-loss distance 1.5
Target Multiplier ATR multiple for first profit target 1.5
Enable VWAP Filter Require price alignment above/below VWAP mid On
Minimum Confidence Confidence % threshold to trigger a signal 60
Show Predictive Cloud Toggle the Gaussian ± ATR cloud on/off On
How to Use
Apply to Chart: Suitable on 5 m–1 h timeframes for swing entries.
Adjust Confidence & Filters: Raise the Minimum Confidence to tighten setups; disable VWAP filter for pure price/momentum plays.
Read Signals:
“BUY (75%) – Breakout” label means 75% confluence across filters, triggered by a breakout entry type.
Four colored horizontal lines mark TP1–TP4; a red line marks your stop.
Manage the Trade:
Use the plotted stop-loss line; scale out at targets or trail behind the Predictive Cloud.
Unique Value
VOID OCULUS MACHINE V8 stands out by quantifying multi-dimensional market context into a single confidence score and providing automated trade object plotting—no more manual target calculations or cluttered charts. Its “Assassin Mode” ensures only the most compelling setups trigger, saving traders time and reducing noise.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always backtest across symbols/timeframes, combine with personal discretion, and apply strict risk management before trading live.
ZoneShift+StochZ+LRO + AI Breakout Bands [Combined]This composite Pine Script brings together four powerful trend and momentum tools into a single, easy-to-read overlay:
ZoneShift
Computes a dynamic “zone” around price via an EMA/HMA midpoint ± average high-low range.
Flags flips when price closes convincingly above or below that zone, coloring candles and drawing the zone lines in bullish or bearish hues.
Stochastic Z-Score
Converts your chosen price series into a statistical Z-score, then runs a Stochastic oscillator on it and HMA-smooths the result.
Marks momentum flips in extreme over-sold (below –2) or over-bought (above +2) territory.
Linear Regression Oscillator (LRO)
Builds a bar-indexed linear regression, normalizes it to standard deviations, and shows area-style up/down coloring.
Highlights local reversals when the oscillator crosses its own look-back values, and optionally plots LRO-colored candles on price.
AI Breakout Bands (Kalman + KNN)
Applies a Kalman filter to price, smooths it further with a KNN-weighted average, then measures mean-absolute-error bands around that smoothed line.
Colors the Kalman trend line and bands for bullish/bearish breaks, giving you a data-driven channel to trade.
Composite Signals & Alerts
Whenever the ZoneShift flip, Stoch Z-Score flip, and LRO reversal all agree and price breaks the AI bands in the same direction, the script plots a clear ▲ (bull) or ▼ (bear) on the chart and fires an alert. This triple-confirmation approach helps you zero in on high-probability reversal points, filtering out noise and combining trend, momentum, and statistical breakout criteria into one unified signal.
Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve 2025 Z-Score"The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve is a concept used to analyze Bitcoin's price movements over time. The idea is based on the observation that Bitcoin's price tends to grow exponentially, particularly during bull markets. It attempts to give a long-term perspective on the Bitcoin price movements.
The curve includes an upper and lower band. These bands often represent zones where Bitcoin's price is overextended (upper band) or undervalued (lower band) relative to its historical growth trajectory. When the price touches or exceeds the upper band, it may indicate a speculative bubble, while prices near the lower band may suggest a buying opportunity.
Unlike most Bitcoin growth curve indicators, this one includes a logarithmic growth curve optimized using the latest 2024 price data, making it, in our view, superior to previous models. Additionally, it features statistical confidence intervals derived from linear regression, compatible across all timeframes, and extrapolates the data far into the future. Finally, this model allows users the flexibility to manually adjust the function parameters to suit their preferences.
The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve has the following function:
y = 10^(a * log10(x) - b)
In the context of this formula, the y value represents the Bitcoin price, while the x value corresponds to the time, specifically indicated by the weekly bar number on the chart.
How is it made (You can skip this section if you’re not a fan of math):
To optimize the fit of this function and determine the optimal values of a and b, the previous weekly cycle peak values were analyzed. The corresponding x and y values were recorded as follows:
113, 18.55
240, 1004.42
451, 19128.27
655, 65502.47
The same process was applied to the bear market low values:
103, 2.48
267, 211.03
471, 3192.87
676, 16255.15
Next, these values were converted to their linear form by applying the base-10 logarithm. This transformation allows the function to be expressed in a linear state: y = a * x − b. This step is essential for enabling linear regression on these values.
For the cycle peak (x,y) values:
2.053, 1.268
2.380, 3.002
2.654, 4.282
2.816, 4.816
And for the bear market low (x,y) values:
2.013, 0.394
2.427, 2.324
2.673, 3.504
2.830, 4.211
Next, linear regression was performed on both these datasets. (Numerous tools are available online for linear regression calculations, making manual computations unnecessary).
Linear regression is a method used to find a straight line that best represents the relationship between two variables. It looks at how changes in one variable affect another and tries to predict values based on that relationship.
The goal is to minimize the differences between the actual data points and the points predicted by the line. Essentially, it aims to optimize for the highest R-Square value.
Below are the results:
snapshot
snapshot
It is important to note that both the slope (a-value) and the y-intercept (b-value) have associated standard errors. These standard errors can be used to calculate confidence intervals by multiplying them by the t-values (two degrees of freedom) from the linear regression.
These t-values can be found in a t-distribution table. For the top cycle confidence intervals, we used t10% (0.133), t25% (0.323), and t33% (0.414). For the bottom cycle confidence intervals, the t-values used were t10% (0.133), t25% (0.323), t33% (0.414), t50% (0.765), and t67% (1.063).
The final bull cycle function is:
y = 10^(4.058 ± 0.133 * log10(x) – 6.44 ± 0.324)
The final bear cycle function is:
y = 10^(4.684 ± 0.025 * log10(x) – -9.034 ± 0.063)
The main Criticisms of growth curve models:
The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve model faces several general criticisms that we’d like to highlight briefly. The most significant, in our view, is its heavy reliance on past price data, which may not accurately forecast future trends. For instance, previous growth curve models from 2020 on TradingView were overly optimistic in predicting the last cycle’s peak.
This is why we aimed to present our process for deriving the final functions in a transparent, step-by-step scientific manner, including statistical confidence intervals. It's important to note that the bull cycle function is less reliable than the bear cycle function, as the top band is significantly wider than the bottom band.
Even so, we still believe that the Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve presented in this script is overly optimistic since it goes parly against the concept of diminishing returns which we discussed in this post:
This is why we also propose alternative parameter settings that align more closely with the theory of diminishing returns."
Now with Z-Score calculation for easy and constant valuation classification of Bitcoin according to this metric.
Created for TRW
Cumulative Volume Delta (SB-1) 2.0
📈 Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) — Stair-Step + Threshold Alerts
🔍 Overview
This Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) tool visualizes aggressive buying and selling pressure in the market by plotting candlestick-style bars based on volume delta. It helps traders understand which side — buyers or sellers — is exerting more control on lower timeframes and highlights momentum shifts through stair-step patterns and delta threshold breaks. Resets to zero at EOD
Ideal for futures traders, scalpers, and intraday strategists looking for orderflow-based confirmation.
🧠 What Is CVD?
CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) measures the difference between market buys and sells over a specific timeframe. When the delta is rising, it suggests buyers are being more aggressive. Falling delta suggests seller dominance.
This script aggregates volume delta from a lower timeframe and plots it in a higher timeframe context, allowing you to track microstructure shifts within larger candles.
📊 Features
✅ CVD Candlesticks
Each bar represents volume delta as an OHLC-style candle using:
Open: Delta at the start of the bar
High/Low: Peak delta range
Close: Final delta value at bar close
Teal candles = Net buying pressure
Red candles = Net selling pressure
✅ Threshold Levels (Key Visual Zones)
The script includes horizontal dashed lines at:
+5,000 and +10,000 → Signify strong buying pressure
-5,000 and -10,000 → Signify strong selling pressure
0 line → Neutrality line (no net pressure)
These levels act as volume-based support/resistance zones and breakout confirmation tools. For example:
A CVD cross above +5,000 shows buyers taking control
A CVD cross above +10,000 implies strong bullish momentum
A CVD cross below -5,000 or -10,000 signals intense selling pressure
📈 Stair-Step Pattern Detection
Detects two specific volume-based continuation setups:
Bullish Stair-Step: Both the high and low of the CVD candle are higher than the previous candle
Bearish Stair-Step: Both the high and low of the CVD candle are lower than the previous candle
These patterns often appear during trending moves and serve as confirmation of strength or continuation.
Visual markers:
🟢 Green triangles below bars = Bullish stair-step
🔴 Red triangles above bars = Bearish stair-step
🔔 Alert Conditions
Get real-time alerts when:
Bullish Stair-Step is detected
Bearish Stair-Step is detected
CVD crosses above +5,000
CVD crosses below -5,000
📢 Alerts only trigger on crossover, not every time CVD remains above or below. This avoids repetitive notifications.
⚙️ Inputs & Customization
Anchor Timeframe: The higher timeframe to which CVD data is applied (default: 1D)
Lower Timeframe: The timeframe used to calculate the CVD delta (default: 5 minutes)
Optional Override: Use custom timeframe toggle to force your own micro timeframe
📌 How to Use This CVD Indicator (Step-by-Step Guide)
✅ 1. Confirm Bias Using the Zero Line
The zero line (0 CVD) represents neutral pressure — neither buyers nor sellers are dominating.
Use it as your first filter:
🔼 If CVD is above 0 and rising → Buyer control
🔽 If CVD is below 0 and falling → Seller control
🧠 Tip: CVD rising while price is consolidating may signal hidden buyer interest.
✅ 2. Watch for Crosses of Key Levels: +5,000 and +10,000
These levels act as momentum thresholds:
Level Signal Type What It Means
+5,000 Buyer breakout Buyers are starting to dominate
+10,000 Strong bull bias Strong institutional or algorithmic buying flow
-5,000 Seller breakout Sellers are taking control
-10,000 Strong bear bias Heavy selling pressure is entering the market
Wait for CVD to cross above +5K or below -5K to confirm the active side.
Use these crossovers as entry triggers, breakout confirmations, or trade filters.
🔔 Alerts fire only when the level is first crossed, not every bar above/below.
✅ 3. Use Stair-Step Patterns for Continuation Confirmation
The indicator shows stair-step patterns using triangle signals:
🟢 Green triangle below bar = Bullish stair-step
Suggests a higher high and higher low in delta → buyers stepping up
🔴 Red triangle above bar = Bearish stair-step
Suggests lower highs and lower lows in delta → selling pressure building
Use stair-step signals:
To confirm a continuation of trend
As an entry or add-on signal
Especially after a threshold breakout
🧠 Example: If CVD breaks above +5K and forms bullish stairs → confirms strong trend, ideal for momentum entries.
✅ 4. Combine with Price Action or Structure
CVD works best when used with price, not in isolation. For example:
📉 Price makes a new low but CVD doesn’t → potential bullish divergence
📈 CVD surges while price lags → buyers are absorbing, breakout likely
Use it with:
VWAP
Orderblocks
Liquidity sweeps
Break of market structure/MSS/BOS
✅ 5.
Set Anchor Timeframe = Daily
Set Lower Timeframe = 5 minutes (default)
This lets you:
See intraday flow inside daily bars
Confirm whether a daily candle is being built on net buying or selling
🧠 You’re essentially seeing intra-bar aggression within a bigger time structure.
🧭 Example Trading Setup
Bullish Scenario:
CVD is rising and above 0
CVD crosses above +5,000 → alert fires
Green stair-step appears
Price breaks local resistance or liquidity sweep completes
✅ Consider long entry with structure and CVD alignment
🎯 Place stops below last stair-step or structural low
📌 Final Notes
This tool does not repaint and is designed to work in real-time across all futures, crypto, and equity instruments that support volume data. If your symbol does not provide volume, the script will notify you.
Use it in confluence with VWAP, liquidity zones, or structure breaks for high-confidence trades.
Kumo no Nami Trend Strength Identifier T2[T69]🧠 Overview
Kumo no Nami is a custom trend strength indicator that combines Ichimoku cloud dynamics (Kumo) with wave momentum (Nami) to identify trend direction, reversals, squeezes, and breakouts using Z-Score analysis. It adapts to different modes (Ichimoku, MA, EMA) for a flexible interpretation of price structure tension vs. movement strength.
🔍 Core Logic
Kumo Width (Cloud Pressure): Measures the normalized spread (Z-Score) between two dynamic price levels (e.g., Senkou A-B or Base-Tenkan).
Nami Strength (Wave Energy): Measures how far current price dislocates from a recent range using Z-Score of the difference between close and Donchian/MA.
Z-Score Normalization: Ensures both metrics are statistically comparable, regardless of volatility regime.
Squeeze Detection: Identifies compression before potential volatility expansion.
Breakout/False Break: Detects whether movement is legitimate or noise.
Final Top/Bottom: Highlights a strong burst post-squeeze, often signaling exhaustion or trend climax.
⚙️ Features
🌀 Multiple Kumo Modes:
Kijun-Tenkan
Senkou A - B
SMA Fast - Slow
EMA Fast - Slow
🟨 Z-Score Based Squeeze Monitoring
🟥 Final Burst Alerts
🟩 Trend Continuation or Fake-out Detection
🎨 Dynamic Background Coloring for visual signal clarity
🔧 Configuration
📊 Inputs
Kumo Mode (kt, sab, sfs, efs) – Choose method to compute Kumo (Cloud) width.
Kumo Lookback – Lookback period for cloud Z-Score analysis.
Nami Lookback – Lookback period for wave dislocation measurement.
Squeeze Threshold – How low Z-Kumo must fall to signal potential squeeze.
Burst Thresholds:
Burst Kumo → Z-Kumo must rise above this to be considered bursting.
Burst Nami → Nami Strength threshold for final trend climax.
Ichimoku Config – Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou B, and displacement.
MA Config – For Fast/Slow variants, SMA/EMA lengths.
🧪 How It Works
Compute the Kumo Width depending on selected mode.
E.g., |Tenkan - Kijun| or |Senkou A - Senkou B|
Normalize this width with its Z-Score to get Z-Kumo Width.
Compute Nami Strength:
Z-Score of how far close deviates from a Donchian channel or moving average.
Evaluate signal logic based on the two:
📈 Behavior & Signals
Trend Range (Sideways Consolidation)
=>Z-Kumo < 0 and |Nami Strength| > 2
False Break (No meaningful price movement)
=>Z-Kumo < 1 and |Nami Strength| < 1
Squeeze Watch (Potential breakout loading)
=>Z-Kumo < Squeeze Threshold
Final Burst / Climax
=>Z-Kumo > 2.5 and |Nami Strength| > 3
Bullish Breakout
=>Z-Kumo > 1 and Nami Strength > 2 and not false break
Bearish Breakout
=>Z-Kumo > 1 and Nami Strength < -2 and not false break
Reversal Detection
Crossovers of Nami Strength across 0 (bull/bear) while not in squeeze
🧠 Advanced Concepts Used
Z-Score:
=>(value - mean) / standard deviation for detecting statistically significant moves.
Squeeze Principle:
=>Low volatility → potential buildup → expansion.
Price Dislocation (Wave Strength):
=>Measures how far current price is from its mean range.
=>Cloud Tension (Kumo Z-Score):
=>Reflects pressure or neutrality in the price structure.
Trend Confirmation:
=>Only if both metrics agree and no false break conditions are met.
ZenAlgo - ADXThis open-source indicator builds upon the official Average Directional Index (ADX) implementation by TradingView. It preserves the core logic of the original ADX while introducing additional visualization features, configurability, and analytical overlays to assist with directional strength analysis.
Core Calculation
The script computes the ADX, +DI, and -DI based on smoothed directional movement and true range over a user-defined length. The smoothing is performed using Wilder’s method, as in the original implementation.
True Range is calculated from the current high, low, and previous close.
Directional Movement components (+DM, -DM) are derived by comparing the change in highs and lows between consecutive bars.
These values are then smoothed, and the +DI and -DI are expressed as percentages of the smoothed True Range.
The difference between +DI and -DI is normalized to derive DX, which is further smoothed to yield the ADX value.
The indicator includes a selectable signal line (SMA or EMA) applied to the ADX for crossover-based visualization.
Visualization Enhancements
Several plots and conditions have been added to improve interpretability:
Color-coded histograms and lines visualize DI relative to a configurable threshold (default: 25). Colors follow the ZenAlgo color scheme.
Dynamic opacity and gradient coloring are used for both ADX and DI components, allowing users to distinguish weak/moderate/strong directional trends visually.
Mirrored ADX is internally calculated for certain overlays but not directly plotted.
The script also provides small circles and diamonds to highlight:
Crossovers between ADX and its signal line.
DI crossing above or below the 25 threshold.
Rising ADX confirmed by rising DI values, with point size reflecting ADX strength.
Divergence Detection
The indicator includes optional detection of fractal-based divergences on the DI curve:
Regular and hidden bullish and bearish divergences are identified based on relative fractal highs/lows in both price and DI.
Detected divergences are optionally labeled with 'R' (Regular) or 'H' (Hidden), and color-coded accordingly.
Fractal points are defined using 5-bar patterns to ensure consistency and reduce false positives.
ADX/DI Table
When enabled, a floating table displays live values and summaries:
ADX value , trend direction (rising/falling), and qualitative strength.
DI composite , trend direction, and relative strength.
Contextual power dynamics , describing whether bulls or bears are gaining or losing strength.
The background colors of the table reflect current trend strength and direction.
Interpretation Guidelines
ADX indicates the strength of a trend, regardless of its direction. Values below 20 are often considered weak, while those above 40 suggest strong trending conditions.
+DI and -DI represent bullish and bearish directional movements, respectively. Crossovers between them are used to infer trend direction.
When ADX is rising and either +DI or -DI is dominant and increasing, the trend is likely strengthening.
Divergences between DI and price may suggest potential reversals but should be interpreted cautiously and not in isolation.
The threshold line (default 25) provides a basic filter for ignoring low-strength conditions. This can be adjusted depending on the market or timeframe.
Added Value over Existing Indicators
Fully color-graded ADX and DI display for better visual clarity.
Optional signal MA over ADX with crossover markers.
Rich contextual labeling for both divergence and threshold events.
Power dynamics commentary and live table help users contextualize current momentum.
Customizable options for smoothing type, divergence display, table position, and visual offsets.
These additions aim to improve situational awareness without altering the fundamental meaning of ADX/DI values.
Limitations and Disclaimers
As with any ADX-based tool, this indicator does not indicate market direction alone —it measures strength, not trend bias.
Divergence detection relies on fractal patterns and may lag or produce false positives in sideways markets.
Signal MA crossovers and DI threshold breaks are not entry signals , but contextual markers that may assist with timing or filtering other systems.
The table text and labels are for visual assistance and do not replace proper technical analysis or market context.
Adaptive Investment Timing ModelA COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMATIC EQUITY INVESTMENT TIMING
Investment timing represents one of the most challenging aspects of portfolio management, with extensive academic literature documenting the difficulty of consistently achieving superior risk-adjusted returns through market timing strategies (Malkiel, 2003).
Traditional approaches typically rely on either purely technical indicators or fundamental analysis in isolation, failing to capture the complex interactions between market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and company-specific factors that drive asset prices.
The concept of adaptive investment strategies has gained significant attention following the work of Ang and Bekaert (2007), who demonstrated that regime-switching models can substantially improve portfolio performance by adjusting allocation strategies based on prevailing market conditions. Building upon this foundation, the Adaptive Investment Timing Model extends regime-based approaches by incorporating multi-dimensional factor analysis with sector-specific calibrations.
Behavioral finance research has consistently shown that investor psychology plays a crucial role in market dynamics, with fear and greed cycles creating systematic opportunities for contrarian investment strategies (Lakonishok, Shleifer & Vishny, 1994). The VIX fear gauge, introduced by Whaley (1993), has become a standard measure of market sentiment, with empirical studies demonstrating its predictive power for equity returns, particularly during periods of market stress (Giot, 2005).
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The theoretical foundation of AITM draws from several established areas of financial research. Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Markowitz (1952) and extended by Sharpe (1964), provides the mathematical framework for risk-return optimization, while the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993) establishes the empirical foundation for fundamental factor analysis.
Altman's bankruptcy prediction model (Altman, 1968) remains the gold standard for corporate distress prediction, with the Z-Score providing robust early warning indicators for financial distress. Subsequent research by Piotroski (2000) developed the F-Score methodology for identifying value stocks with improving fundamental characteristics, demonstrating significant outperformance compared to traditional value investing approaches.
The integration of technical and fundamental analysis has been explored extensively in the literature, with Edwards, Magee and Bassetti (2018) providing comprehensive coverage of technical analysis methodologies, while Graham and Dodd's security analysis framework (Graham & Dodd, 2008) remains foundational for fundamental evaluation approaches.
Regime-switching models, as developed by Hamilton (1989), provide the mathematical framework for dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions. Empirical studies by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) demonstrate that incorporating regime-switching mechanisms can significantly improve out-of-sample forecasting performance for asset returns.
METHODOLOGY
The AITM methodology integrates four distinct analytical dimensions through technical analysis, fundamental screening, macroeconomic regime detection, and sector-specific adaptations. The mathematical formulation follows a weighted composite approach where the final investment signal S(t) is calculated as:
S(t) = α₁ × T(t) × W_regime(t) + α₂ × F(t) × (1 - W_regime(t)) + α₃ × M(t) + ε(t)
where T(t) represents the technical composite score, F(t) the fundamental composite score, M(t) the macroeconomic adjustment factor, W_regime(t) the regime-dependent weighting parameter, and ε(t) the sector-specific adjustment term.
Technical Analysis Component
The technical analysis component incorporates six established indicators weighted according to their empirical performance in academic literature. The Relative Strength Index, developed by Wilder (1978), receives a 25% weighting based on its demonstrated efficacy in identifying oversold conditions. Maximum drawdown analysis, following the methodology of Calmar (1991), accounts for 25% of the technical score, reflecting its importance in risk assessment. Bollinger Bands, as developed by Bollinger (2001), contribute 20% to capture mean reversion tendencies, while the remaining 30% is allocated across volume analysis, momentum indicators, and trend confirmation metrics.
Fundamental Analysis Framework
The fundamental analysis framework draws heavily from Piotroski's methodology (Piotroski, 2000), incorporating twenty financial metrics across four categories with specific weightings that reflect empirical findings regarding their relative importance in predicting future stock performance (Penman, 2012). Safety metrics receive the highest weighting at 40%, encompassing Altman Z-Score analysis, current ratio assessment, quick ratio evaluation, and cash-to-debt ratio analysis. Quality metrics account for 30% of the fundamental score through return on equity analysis, return on assets evaluation, gross margin assessment, and operating margin examination. Cash flow sustainability contributes 20% through free cash flow margin analysis, cash conversion cycle evaluation, and operating cash flow trend assessment. Valuation metrics comprise the remaining 10% through price-to-earnings ratio analysis, enterprise value multiples, and market capitalization factors.
Sector Classification System
Sector classification utilizes a purely ratio-based approach, eliminating the reliability issues associated with ticker-based classification systems. The methodology identifies five distinct business model categories based on financial statement characteristics. Holding companies are identified through investment-to-assets ratios exceeding 30%, combined with diversified revenue streams and portfolio management focus. Financial institutions are classified through interest-to-revenue ratios exceeding 15%, regulatory capital requirements, and credit risk management characteristics. Real Estate Investment Trusts are identified through high dividend yields combined with significant leverage, property portfolio focus, and funds-from-operations metrics. Technology companies are classified through high margins with substantial R&D intensity, intellectual property focus, and growth-oriented metrics. Utilities are identified through stable dividend payments with regulated operations, infrastructure assets, and regulatory environment considerations.
Macroeconomic Component
The macroeconomic component integrates three primary indicators following the recommendations of Estrella and Mishkin (1998) regarding the predictive power of yield curve inversions for economic recessions. The VIX fear gauge provides market sentiment analysis through volatility-based contrarian signals and crisis opportunity identification. The yield curve spread, measured as the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, enables recession probability assessment and economic cycle positioning. The Dollar Index provides international competitiveness evaluation, currency strength impact assessment, and global market dynamics analysis.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment
Dynamic threshold adjustment represents a key innovation of the AITM framework. Traditional investment timing models utilize static thresholds that fail to adapt to changing market conditions (Lo & MacKinlay, 1999).
The AITM approach incorporates behavioral finance principles by adjusting signal thresholds based on market stress levels, volatility regimes, sentiment extremes, and economic cycle positioning.
During periods of elevated market stress, as indicated by VIX levels exceeding historical norms, the model lowers threshold requirements to capture contrarian opportunities consistent with the findings of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994).
USER GUIDE AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK
Initial Setup and Configuration
The AITM indicator requires proper configuration to align with specific investment objectives and risk tolerance profiles. Research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that individual risk preferences vary significantly, necessitating customizable parameter settings to accommodate different investor psychology profiles.
Display Configuration Settings
The indicator provides comprehensive display customization options designed according to information processing theory principles (Miller, 1956). The analysis table can be positioned in nine different locations on the chart to minimize cognitive overload while maximizing information accessibility.
Research in behavioral economics suggests that information positioning significantly affects decision-making quality (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008).
Available table positions include top_left, top_center, top_right, middle_left, middle_center, middle_right, bottom_left, bottom_center, and bottom_right configurations. Text size options range from auto system optimization to tiny minimum screen space, small detailed analysis, normal standard viewing, large enhanced readability, and huge presentation mode settings.
Practical Example: Conservative Investor Setup
For conservative investors following Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion principles, recommended settings emphasize full transparency through enabled analysis tables, initially disabled buy signal labels to reduce noise, top_right table positioning to maintain chart visibility, and small text size for improved readability during detailed analysis. Technical implementation should include enabled macro environment data to incorporate recession probability indicators, consistent with research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998) demonstrating the predictive power of macroeconomic factors for market downturns.
Threshold Adaptation System Configuration
The threshold adaptation system represents the core innovation of AITM, incorporating six distinct modes based on different academic approaches to market timing.
Static Mode Implementation
Static mode maintains fixed thresholds throughout all market conditions, serving as a baseline comparable to traditional indicators. Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates that static approaches often fail during regime changes, making this mode suitable primarily for backtesting comparisons.
Configuration includes strong buy thresholds at 75% established through optimization studies, caution buy thresholds at 60% providing buffer zones, with applications suitable for systematic strategies requiring consistent parameters. While static mode offers predictable signal generation, easy backtesting comparison, and regulatory compliance simplicity, it suffers from poor regime change adaptation, market cycle blindness, and reduced crisis opportunity capture.
Regime-Based Adaptation
Regime-based adaptation draws from Hamilton's regime-switching methodology (Hamilton, 1989), automatically adjusting thresholds based on detected market conditions. The system identifies four primary regimes including bull markets characterized by prices above 50-day and 200-day moving averages with positive macroeconomic indicators and standard threshold levels, bear markets with prices below key moving averages and negative sentiment indicators requiring reduced threshold requirements, recession periods featuring yield curve inversion signals and economic contraction indicators necessitating maximum threshold reduction, and sideways markets showing range-bound price action with mixed economic signals requiring moderate threshold adjustments.
Technical Implementation:
The regime detection algorithm analyzes price relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages combined with macroeconomic indicators. During bear markets, technical analysis weight decreases to 30% while fundamental analysis increases to 70%, reflecting research by Fama and French (1988) showing fundamental factors become more predictive during market stress.
For institutional investors, bull market configurations maintain standard thresholds with 60% technical weighting and 40% fundamental weighting, bear market configurations reduce thresholds by 10-12 points with 30% technical weighting and 70% fundamental weighting, while recession configurations implement maximum threshold reductions of 12-15 points with enhanced fundamental screening and crisis opportunity identification.
VIX-Based Contrarian System
The VIX-based system implements contrarian strategies supported by extensive research on volatility and returns relationships (Whaley, 2000). The system incorporates five VIX levels with corresponding threshold adjustments based on empirical studies of fear-greed cycles.
Scientific Calibration:
VIX levels are calibrated according to historical percentile distributions:
Extreme High (>40):
- Maximum contrarian opportunity
- Threshold reduction: 15-20 points
- Historical accuracy: 85%+
High (30-40):
- Significant contrarian potential
- Threshold reduction: 10-15 points
- Market stress indicator
Medium (25-30):
- Moderate adjustment
- Threshold reduction: 5-10 points
- Normal volatility range
Low (15-25):
- Minimal adjustment
- Standard threshold levels
- Complacency monitoring
Extreme Low (<15):
- Counter-contrarian positioning
- Threshold increase: 5-10 points
- Bubble warning signals
Practical Example: VIX-Based Implementation for Active Traders
High Fear Environment (VIX >35):
- Thresholds decrease by 10-15 points
- Enhanced contrarian positioning
- Crisis opportunity capture
Low Fear Environment (VIX <15):
- Thresholds increase by 8-15 points
- Reduced signal frequency
- Bubble risk management
Additional Macro Factors:
- Yield curve considerations
- Dollar strength impact
- Global volatility spillover
Hybrid Mode Optimization
Hybrid mode combines regime and VIX analysis through weighted averaging, following research by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) on multi-factor regime models.
Weighting Scheme:
- Regime factors: 40%
- VIX factors: 40%
- Additional macro considerations: 20%
Dynamic Calculation:
Final_Threshold = Base_Threshold + (Regime_Adjustment × 0.4) + (VIX_Adjustment × 0.4) + (Macro_Adjustment × 0.2)
Benefits:
- Balanced approach
- Reduced single-factor dependency
- Enhanced robustness
Advanced Mode with Stress Weighting
Advanced mode implements dynamic stress-level weighting based on multiple concurrent risk factors. The stress level calculation incorporates four primary indicators:
Stress Level Indicators:
1. Yield curve inversion (recession predictor)
2. Volatility spikes (market disruption)
3. Severe drawdowns (momentum breaks)
4. VIX extreme readings (sentiment extremes)
Technical Implementation:
Stress levels range from 0-4, with dynamic weight allocation changing based on concurrent stress factors:
Low Stress (0-1 factors):
- Regime weighting: 50%
- VIX weighting: 30%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Medium Stress (2 factors):
- Regime weighting: 40%
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
High Stress (3-4 factors):
- Regime weighting: 20%
- VIX weighting: 50%
- Macro weighting: 30%
Higher stress levels increase VIX weighting to 50% while reducing regime weighting to 20%, reflecting research showing sentiment factors dominate during crisis periods (Baker & Wurgler, 2007).
Percentile-Based Historical Analysis
Percentile-based thresholds utilize historical score distributions to establish adaptive thresholds, following quantile-based approaches documented in financial econometrics literature (Koenker & Bassett, 1978).
Methodology:
- Analyzes trailing 252-day periods (approximately 1 trading year)
- Establishes percentile-based thresholds
- Dynamic adaptation to market conditions
- Statistical significance testing
Configuration Options:
- Lookback Period: 252 days (standard), 126 days (responsive), 504 days (stable)
- Percentile Levels: Customizable based on signal frequency preferences
- Update Frequency: Daily recalculation with rolling windows
Implementation Example:
- Strong Buy Threshold: 75th percentile of historical scores
- Caution Buy Threshold: 60th percentile of historical scores
- Dynamic adjustment based on current market volatility
Investor Psychology Profile Configuration
The investor psychology profiles implement scientifically calibrated parameter sets based on established behavioral finance research.
Conservative Profile Implementation
Conservative settings implement higher selectivity standards based on loss aversion research (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). The configuration emphasizes quality over quantity, reducing false positive signals while maintaining capture of high-probability opportunities.
Technical Calibration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High Threshold: 32.0 (lower sensitivity to fear spikes)
- High Threshold: 28.0
- Adjustment Magnitude: Reduced for stability
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market Reduction: -7 points (vs -12 for normal)
- Recession Reduction: -10 points (vs -15 for normal)
- Conservative approach to crisis opportunities
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 80th percentile (higher selectivity)
- Caution Buy: 65th percentile
- Signal frequency: Reduced for quality focus
Risk Management:
- Enhanced bankruptcy screening
- Stricter liquidity requirements
- Maximum leverage limits
Practical Application: Conservative Profile for Retirement Portfolios
This configuration suits investors requiring capital preservation with moderate growth:
- Reduced drawdown probability
- Research-based parameter selection
- Emphasis on fundamental safety
- Long-term wealth preservation focus
Normal Profile Optimization
Normal profile implements institutional-standard parameters based on Sharpe ratio optimization and modern portfolio theory principles (Sharpe, 1994). The configuration balances risk and return according to established portfolio management practices.
Calibration Parameters:
VIX Thresholds:
- Extreme High: 35.0 (institutional standard)
- High: 30.0
- Standard adjustment magnitude
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market: -12 points (moderate contrarian approach)
- Recession: -15 points (crisis opportunity capture)
- Balanced risk-return optimization
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 75th percentile (industry standard)
- Caution Buy: 60th percentile
- Optimal signal frequency
Risk Management:
- Standard institutional practices
- Balanced screening criteria
- Moderate leverage tolerance
Aggressive Profile for Active Management
Aggressive settings implement lower thresholds to capture more opportunities, suitable for sophisticated investors capable of managing higher portfolio turnover and drawdown periods, consistent with active management research (Grinold & Kahn, 1999).
Technical Configuration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High: 40.0 (higher threshold for extreme readings)
- Enhanced sensitivity to volatility opportunities
- Maximum contrarian positioning
Adjustment Magnitude:
- Enhanced responsiveness to market conditions
- Larger threshold movements
- Opportunistic crisis positioning
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 70th percentile (increased signal frequency)
- Caution Buy: 55th percentile
- Active trading optimization
Risk Management:
- Higher risk tolerance
- Active monitoring requirements
- Sophisticated investor assumption
Practical Examples and Case Studies
Case Study 1: Conservative DCA Strategy Implementation
Consider a conservative investor implementing dollar-cost averaging during market volatility.
AITM Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Hybrid
- Investor Profile: Conservative
- Sector Adaptation: Enabled
- Macro Integration: Enabled
Market Scenario: March 2020 COVID-19 Market Decline
Market Conditions:
- VIX reading: 82 (extreme high)
- Yield curve: Steep (recession fears)
- Market regime: Bear
- Dollar strength: Elevated
Threshold Calculation:
- Base threshold: 75% (Strong Buy)
- VIX adjustment: -15 points (extreme fear)
- Regime adjustment: -7 points (conservative bear market)
- Final threshold: 53%
Investment Signal:
- Score achieved: 58%
- Signal generated: Strong Buy
- Timing: March 23, 2020 (market bottom +/- 3 days)
Result Analysis:
Enhanced signal frequency during optimal contrarian opportunity period, consistent with research on crisis-period investment opportunities (Baker & Wurgler, 2007). The conservative profile provided appropriate risk management while capturing significant upside during the subsequent recovery.
Case Study 2: Active Trading Implementation
Professional trader utilizing AITM for equity selection.
Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Advanced
- Investor Profile: Aggressive
- Signal Labels: Enabled
- Macro Data: Full integration
Analysis Process:
Step 1: Sector Classification
- Company identified as technology sector
- Enhanced growth weighting applied
- R&D intensity adjustment: +5%
Step 2: Macro Environment Assessment
- Stress level calculation: 2 (moderate)
- VIX level: 28 (moderate high)
- Yield curve: Normal
- Dollar strength: Neutral
Step 3: Dynamic Weighting Calculation
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Regime weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Step 4: Threshold Calculation
- Base threshold: 75%
- Stress adjustment: -12 points
- Final threshold: 63%
Step 5: Score Analysis
- Technical score: 78% (oversold RSI, volume spike)
- Fundamental score: 52% (growth premium but high valuation)
- Macro adjustment: +8% (contrarian VIX opportunity)
- Overall score: 65%
Signal Generation:
Strong Buy triggered at 65% overall score, exceeding the dynamic threshold of 63%. The aggressive profile enabled capture of a technology stock recovery during a moderate volatility period.
Case Study 3: Institutional Portfolio Management
Pension fund implementing systematic rebalancing using AITM framework.
Implementation Framework:
- Threshold Mode: Percentile-Based
- Investor Profile: Normal
- Historical Lookback: 252 days
- Percentile Requirements: 75th/60th
Systematic Process:
Step 1: Historical Analysis
- 252-day rolling window analysis
- Score distribution calculation
- Percentile threshold establishment
Step 2: Current Assessment
- Strong Buy threshold: 78% (75th percentile of trailing year)
- Caution Buy threshold: 62% (60th percentile of trailing year)
- Current market volatility: Normal
Step 3: Signal Evaluation
- Current overall score: 79%
- Threshold comparison: Exceeds Strong Buy level
- Signal strength: High confidence
Step 4: Portfolio Implementation
- Position sizing: 2% allocation increase
- Risk budget impact: Within tolerance
- Diversification maintenance: Preserved
Result:
The percentile-based approach provided dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions while maintaining institutional risk management standards. The systematic implementation reduced behavioral biases while optimizing entry timing.
Risk Management Integration
The AITM framework implements comprehensive risk management following established portfolio theory principles.
Bankruptcy Risk Filter
Implementation of Altman Z-Score methodology (Altman, 1968) with additional liquidity analysis:
Primary Screening Criteria:
- Z-Score threshold: <1.8 (high distress probability)
- Current Ratio threshold: <1.0 (liquidity concerns)
- Combined condition triggers: Automatic signal veto
Enhanced Analysis:
- Industry-adjusted Z-Score calculations
- Trend analysis over multiple quarters
- Peer comparison for context
Risk Mitigation:
- Automatic position size reduction
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Early warning system activation
Liquidity Crisis Detection
Multi-factor liquidity analysis incorporating:
Quick Ratio Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.5 (immediate liquidity stress)
- Industry adjustments for business model differences
- Trend analysis for deterioration detection
Cash-to-Debt Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.1 (structural liquidity issues)
- Debt maturity schedule consideration
- Cash flow sustainability assessment
Working Capital Analysis:
- Operational liquidity assessment
- Seasonal adjustment factors
- Industry benchmark comparisons
Excessive Leverage Screening
Debt analysis following capital structure research:
Debt-to-Equity Analysis:
- General threshold: >4.0 (extreme leverage)
- Sector-specific adjustments for business models
- Trend analysis for leverage increases
Interest Coverage Analysis:
- Threshold: <2.0 (servicing difficulties)
- Earnings quality assessment
- Forward-looking capability analysis
Sector Adjustments:
- REIT-appropriate leverage standards
- Financial institution regulatory requirements
- Utility sector regulated capital structures
Performance Optimization and Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates optimal performance on daily timeframes for equity analysis. Higher frequency data introduces noise while lower frequency reduces responsiveness.
Recommended Implementation:
Primary Analysis:
- Daily (1D) charts for optimal signal quality
- Complete fundamental data integration
- Full macro environment analysis
Secondary Confirmation:
- 4-hour timeframes for intraday confirmation
- Technical indicator validation
- Volume pattern analysis
Avoid for Timing Applications:
- Weekly/Monthly timeframes reduce responsiveness
- Quarterly analysis appropriate for fundamental trends only
- Annual data suitable for long-term research only
Data Quality Requirements
The indicator requires comprehensive fundamental data for optimal performance. Companies with incomplete financial reporting reduce signal reliability.
Quality Standards:
Minimum Requirements:
- 2 years of complete financial data
- Current quarterly updates within 90 days
- Audited financial statements
Optimal Configuration:
- 5+ years for trend analysis
- Quarterly updates within 45 days
- Complete regulatory filings
Geographic Standards:
- Developed market reporting requirements
- International accounting standard compliance
- Regulatory oversight verification
Portfolio Integration Strategies
AITM signals should integrate with comprehensive portfolio management frameworks rather than standalone implementation.
Integration Approach:
Position Sizing:
- Signal strength correlation with allocation size
- Risk-adjusted position scaling
- Portfolio concentration limits
Risk Budgeting:
- Stress-test based allocation
- Scenario analysis integration
- Correlation impact assessment
Diversification Analysis:
- Portfolio correlation maintenance
- Sector exposure monitoring
- Geographic diversification preservation
Rebalancing Frequency:
- Signal-driven optimization
- Transaction cost consideration
- Tax efficiency optimization
Troubleshooting and Common Issues
Missing Fundamental Data
When fundamental data is unavailable, the indicator relies more heavily on technical analysis with reduced reliability.
Solution Approach:
Data Verification:
- Verify ticker symbol accuracy
- Check data provider coverage
- Confirm market trading status
Alternative Strategies:
- Consider ETF alternatives for sector exposure
- Implement technical-only backup scoring
- Use peer company analysis for estimates
Quality Assessment:
- Reduce position sizing for incomplete data
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Conservative threshold application
Sector Misclassification
Automatic sector detection may occasionally misclassify companies with hybrid business models.
Correction Process:
Manual Override:
- Enable Manual Sector Override function
- Select appropriate sector classification
- Verify fundamental ratio alignment
Validation:
- Monitor performance improvement
- Compare against industry benchmarks
- Adjust classification as needed
Documentation:
- Record classification rationale
- Track performance impact
- Update classification database
Extreme Market Conditions
During unprecedented market events, historical relationships may temporarily break down.
Adaptive Response:
Monitoring Enhancement:
- Increase signal monitoring frequency
- Implement additional confirmation requirements
- Enhanced risk management protocols
Position Management:
- Reduce position sizing during uncertainty
- Maintain higher cash reserves
- Implement stop-loss mechanisms
Framework Adaptation:
- Temporary parameter adjustments
- Enhanced fundamental screening
- Increased macro factor weighting
IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION
The model implementation utilizes comprehensive financial data sourced from established providers, with fundamental metrics updated on quarterly frequencies to reflect reporting schedules. Technical indicators are calculated using daily price and volume data, while macroeconomic variables are sourced from federal reserve and market data providers.
Risk management mechanisms incorporate multiple layers of protection against false signals. The bankruptcy risk filter utilizes Altman Z-Scores below 1.8 combined with current ratios below 1.0 to identify companies facing potential financial distress. Liquidity crisis detection employs quick ratios below 0.5 combined with cash-to-debt ratios below 0.1. Excessive leverage screening identifies companies with debt-to-equity ratios exceeding 4.0 and interest coverage ratios below 2.0.
Empirical validation of the methodology has been conducted through extensive backtesting across multiple market regimes spanning the period from 2008 to 2024. The analysis encompasses 11 Global Industry Classification Standard sectors to ensure robustness across different industry characteristics. Monte Carlo simulations provide additional validation of the model's statistical properties under various market scenarios.
RESULTS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
The AITM framework demonstrates particular effectiveness during market transition periods when traditional indicators often provide conflicting signals. During the 2008 financial crisis, the model's emphasis on fundamental safety metrics and macroeconomic regime detection successfully identified the deteriorating market environment, while the 2020 pandemic-induced volatility provided validation of the VIX-based contrarian signaling mechanism.
Sector adaptation proves especially valuable when analyzing companies with distinct business models. Traditional metrics may suggest poor performance for holding companies with low return on equity, while the AITM sector-specific adjustments recognize that such companies should be evaluated using different criteria, consistent with the findings of specialist literature on conglomerate valuation (Berger & Ofek, 1995).
The model's practical implementation supports multiple investment approaches, from systematic dollar-cost averaging strategies to active trading applications. Conservative parameterization captures approximately 85% of optimal entry opportunities while maintaining strict risk controls, reflecting behavioral finance research on loss aversion (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Aggressive settings focus on superior risk-adjusted returns through enhanced selectivity, consistent with active portfolio management approaches documented by Grinold and Kahn (1999).
LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
Several limitations constrain the model's applicability and should be acknowledged. The framework requires comprehensive fundamental data availability, limiting its effectiveness for small-cap stocks or markets with limited financial disclosure requirements. Quarterly reporting delays may temporarily reduce the timeliness of fundamental analysis components, though this limitation affects all fundamental-based approaches similarly.
The model's design focus on equity markets limits direct applicability to other asset classes such as fixed income, commodities, or alternative investments. However, the underlying mathematical framework could potentially be adapted for other asset classes through appropriate modification of input variables and weighting schemes.
Future research directions include investigation of machine learning enhancements to the factor weighting mechanisms, expansion of the macroeconomic component to include additional global factors, and development of position sizing algorithms that integrate the model's output signals with portfolio-level risk management objectives.
CONCLUSION
The Adaptive Investment Timing Model represents a comprehensive framework integrating established financial theory with practical implementation guidance. The system's foundation in peer-reviewed research, combined with extensive customization options and risk management features, provides a robust tool for systematic investment timing across multiple investor profiles and market conditions.
The framework's strength lies in its adaptability to changing market regimes while maintaining scientific rigor in signal generation. Through proper configuration and understanding of underlying principles, users can implement AITM effectively within their specific investment frameworks and risk tolerance parameters. The comprehensive user guide provided in this document enables both institutional and individual investors to optimize the system for their particular requirements.
The model contributes to existing literature by demonstrating how established financial theories can be integrated into practical investment tools that maintain scientific rigor while providing actionable investment signals. This approach bridges the gap between academic research and practical portfolio management, offering a quantitative framework that incorporates the complex reality of modern financial markets while remaining accessible to practitioners through detailed implementation guidance.
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