Bollinger Bands StrategyBollinger Bands Strategy :
INTRODUCTION :
This strategy is based on the famous Bollinger Bands. These are constructed using a standard moving average (SMA) and the standard deviation of past prices. The theory goes that 90% of the time, the price is contained between these two bands. If it were to break out, this would mean either a reversal or a continuation. However, when a reversal occurs, the movement is weak, whereas when a continuation occurs, the movement is substantial and profits can be interesting. We're going to use BB to take advantage of this strong upcoming movement, while managing our risks reasonably. There's also a money management method for reinvesting part of the profits or reducing the size of orders in the event of substantial losses.
BOLLINGER BANDS :
The construction of Bollinger bands is straightforward. First, plot the SMA of the price, with a length specified by the user. Then calculate the standard deviation to measure price dispersion in relation to the mean, using this formula :
stdv = (((P1 - avg)^2 + (P2 - avg)^2 + ... + (Pn - avg)^2) / n)^1/2
To plot the two Bollinger bands, we then add a user-defined number of standard deviations to the initial SMA. The default is to add 2. The result is :
Upper_band = SMA + 2*stdv
Lower_band = SMA - 2*stdv
When the price leaves this channel defined by the bands, we obtain buy and sell signals.
PARAMETERS :
BB Length : This is the length of the Bollinger Bands, i.e. the length of the SMA used to plot the bands, and the length of the price series used to calculate the standard deviation. The default is 120.
Standard Deviation Multipler : adds or subtracts this number of times the standard deviation from the initial SMA. Default is 2.
SMA Exit Signal Length : Exit signals for winning and losing trades are triggered by another SMA. This parameter defines the length of this SMA. The default is 110.
Max Risk per trade (in %) : It's the maximum percentage the user can lose in one trade. The default is 6%.
Fixed Ratio : This is the amount of gain or loss at which the order quantity is changed. The default is 400, meaning that for each $400 gain or loss, the order size is increased or decreased by a user-selected amount.
Increasing Order Amount : This is the amount to be added to or subtracted from orders when the fixed ratio is reached. The default is $200, which means that for every $400 gain, $200 is reinvested in the strategy. On the other hand, for every $400 loss, the order size is reduced by $200.
Initial capital : $1000
Fees : Interactive Broker fees apply to this strategy. They are set at 0.18% of the trade value.
Slippage : 3 ticks or $0.03 per trade. Corresponds to the latency time between the moment the signal is received and the moment the order is executed by the broker.
Important : A bot has been used to test the different parameters and determine which ones maximize return while limiting drawdown. This strategy is the most optimal on BITSTAMP:BTCUSD in 8h timeframe with the following parameters :
BB Length = 120
Standard Deviation Multipler = 2
SMA Exit Signal Length = 110
Max Risk per trade (in %) = 6%
ENTER RULES :
The entry rules are simple:
If close > Upper_band it's a LONG signal
If close < Lower_band it's a SHORT signal
EXIT RULES :
If we are LONG and close < SMA_EXIT, position is closed
If we are SHORT and close > SMA_EXIT, the position is closed
Positions close automatically if they lose more than 6% to limit risk
RISK MANAGEMENT :
This strategy is subject to losses. We manage our risk using the exit SMA or using a SL sets to 6%. This SMA gives us exit signals when the price closes below or above, thus limiting losses. If the signal arrives too late, the position is closed after a loss of 6%.
MONEY MANAGEMENT :
The fixed ratio method was used to manage our gains and losses. For each gain of an amount equal to the fixed ratio value, we increase the order size by a value defined by the user in the "Increasing order amount" parameter. Similarly, each time we lose an amount equal to the value of the fixed ratio, we decrease the order size by the same user-defined value. This strategy increases both performance and drawdown.
NOTE :
Please note that the strategy is backtested from 2017-01-01. As the timeframe is 8h, this strategy is a medium/long-term strategy. That's why only 51 trades were closed. Be careful, as the test sample is small and performance may not necessarily reflect what may happen in the future.
Enjoy the strategy and don't forget to take the trade :)
"band" için komut dosyalarını ara
TrueLevel BandsTrueLevel Bands is a powerful trading indicator that employs linear regression and standard deviation to create dynamic, envelope-style bands around the price action of a financial instrument. These bands are designed to help traders identify potential support and resistance levels, trend direction, and volatility.
The TrueLevel Bands indicator consists of multiple envelope bands, each constructed using different timeframes or lengths, and a multiple (mult) factor. The multiple factor determines the width of the bands by adjusting the number of standard deviations from the linear regression line.
Key Features of TrueLevel Bands
1. Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Unlike traditional moving average-based indicators, TrueLevel Bands allow traders to incorporate multiple timeframes into their analysis. This helps traders capture both short-term and long-term market dynamics, offering a more comprehensive understanding of price behavior.
2. Customization: The TrueLevel Bands indicator offers a high level of customization, allowing traders to adjust the lengths and multiple factors to suit their trading style and preferences. This flexibility enables traders to fine-tune the indicator to work optimally with various instruments and market conditions.
3. Adaptive Volatility: By incorporating standard deviation, TrueLevel Bands can automatically adjust to changing market volatility. This feature enables the bands to expand during periods of high volatility and contract during periods of low volatility, providing traders with a more accurate representation of market dynamics.
4. Dynamic Support and Resistance Levels: TrueLevel Bands can help traders identify dynamic support and resistance levels, as the bands adjust in real-time according to price action. This can be particularly useful for traders looking to enter or exit positions based on support and resistance levels.
5. The "Global Trend Line" refers to the average of the bands used to indicate the overall trend.
Why TrueLevel Bands are Different from Classic Moving Averages
TrueLevel Bands differ from conventional moving averages in several ways:
1. Linear Regression: While moving averages are based on simple arithmetic means, TrueLevel Bands use linear regression to determine the centerline. This offers a more accurate representation of the trend and helps traders better assess potential entry and exit points.
2. Envelope Style Bands: Unlike moving averages, which are single lines, TrueLevel Bands form envelope-style bands around the price action. This provides traders with a visual representation of potential support and resistance levels, trend direction, and volatility.
3. Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Classic moving averages typically focus on a single timeframe. In contrast, TrueLevel Bands incorporate multiple timeframes, enabling traders to capture a broader understanding of market dynamics.
4. Adaptive Volatility: Traditional moving averages do not account for changing market volatility, whereas TrueLevel Bands automatically adjust to volatility shifts through the use of standard deviation.
The TrueLevel Bands indicator is a powerful, versatile tool that offers traders a unique approach to technical analysis. With its ability to adapt to changing market conditions, provide multi-timeframe analysis, and dynamic support and resistance levels, TrueLevel Bands can serve as an invaluable asset to both novice and experienced traders looking to gain an edge in the markets.
Trop BandsTrop Bands is a tool that uses an exponential moving average (EMA) as its central trendline and upper and lower bands to identify potential buying and selling opportunities in the market. The bands are calculated based on recent moves away from the EMA, and they are plotted around the central trendline to provide a visual representation of market trends and conditions. When the price moves outside of these bands, it can be seen as a signal that the security is overbought or oversold and may be ready for a reversal, just like Bollinger Bands.
In addition to providing signals when the price moves outside of the bands, the indicator can also show triangles outside/inside the bands. These triangles are based on the Demand Index developed by James Sibbet and are intended to provide additional confirmation of potential trading opportunities. They can be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools to help identifying potential trading opportunities in the market.
Swing BandsThis indicator is a result of experimentation with price action of candle high and lows for quantifying reversals and trend continuation.
The band area shows trend reversal incoming and possible chop.
Middle line is the trend reversal price level. Candle colors change if the close price is above or below the middle line.
Long and short positions can be taken when above or below the bands.
Trend continuations are in effect when price retraces into the bands and breaks above or below in the same direction of the trend.
Regression Fit Bollinger Bands [Spiritualhealer117]This indicator is best suited for mean reversion trading, shorting at the upper band and buying at the lower band, but it can be used in all the same ways as a standard bollinger band.
It differs from a normal bollinger band because it is centered around the linear regression line, as opposed to the moving average line, and uses the linear regression of the standard deviation as opposed to the standard deviation.
This script was an experiment with the new vertical gradient fill feature.
EMA Bollinger Bands with customized std dev and moving averageTo use EMA with band you need to set input parameter named as "TypeOfMa" to 1.
If you set TypeOfMa = 1 then it will use EMA average for Bollinger bands.
If you set TypeOfMa = 0 then it will use MA average for Bollinger bands.
Rollin' pseudo-Bollinger Bands 5 linear regression curves and new highs/lows mixed together from the basis for this indicator. Using slightly different logic an upper boundary and lower boundary are formed. Then the boundary's are built upon to show price channels within the band using variations of fib levels and the distance between the initial boundary's. Dots plotted show the inverse of the close price relative to either the upper or lower boundary depending on where the close is relative to the center of the band. This shows the market's tendency for symmetry which is useful when looking for reversals etc. If it's too cluttered feel free to turn off some things in the options and keep what you feel is helpful.
Volatility Zones (VStop + Bands) — Fixed (v2)📝 What this indicator is
This script is called “Volatility Zones (VStop + Bands)”.
It is an ATR-based volatility indicator that combines dynamic volatility bands, a Volatility Stop line (VStop), and volatility spike detection into a single tool.
Unlike moving average–based indicators, this tool does not rely on averages of price direction. Instead, it measures the market’s true volatility and reacts to expansions or contractions in price ranges.
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⚙️ How it is built
The indicator uses several volatility-based components:
1. Average True Range (ATR)
o ATR is calculated over a user-defined length.
o It measures how much price typically moves in a given number of bars, making it the foundation of this indicator.
2. Volatility Bands
o Upper band = close + ATR × factor
o Lower band = close - ATR × factor
o The area between them is shaded.
o This gives traders an immediate visual sense of market volatility width — wide bands = high volatility, narrow bands = quiet market.
3. Volatility Stop (VStop)
o A stateful trailing stop based on ATR.
o It tracks the highest (or lowest) price in the current trend and places a stop offset by ATR × multiplier.
o When price crosses this stop, the indicator flips trend direction.
o This creates a dynamic stop-and-reverse mechanism that adapts to volatility.
4. Trend Zones
o When the trend is bullish, the stop is green and the chart background is shaded softly green.
o When bearish, the stop is red and the background is shaded softly red.
o This makes the market’s directional bias visually clear at all times.
5. Flip Signals (Buy/Sell Arrows)
o Whenever the VStop flips, arrows appear:
Green BUY arrows below price when the trend turns bullish.
Red SELL arrows above price when the trend turns bearish.
o These are also tied to built-in alerts for automation.
6. Volatility Spike Detection
o The script compares current ATR to its recent average.
o If ATR suddenly expands above a threshold, a small yellow “VOL” marker appears at the top of the chart.
o This highlights potential breakout phases or unusual volatility events.
7. Stop Labels
o At every trend flip, a small label appears at the bar, showing the exact stop level.
o This makes it easy to use the stop as a reference for risk management.
________________________________________
📊 How it works in practice
• When price is above the VStop line, the market is considered in an uptrend.
• When price is below the VStop line, the market is in a downtrend.
• The bands expand/contract with volatility, helping traders gauge risk and position sizing.
• Flip arrows signal when trend direction changes.
• Volatility spikes warn traders that the market is entering a higher-risk phase, often before strong moves.
________________________________________
🎯 How it may help traders
• Trend following → Helps traders identify whether the market is trending up or down.
• Stop placement → Provides a dynamic stop level that adjusts to volatility.
• Volatility awareness → Shaded bands and spike markers show when the market is likely to become unstable.
• Trade timing → Flip arrows and labels help identify potential entry or exit points.
• Risk management → Wide bands indicate higher risk; narrow bands suggest safer, tighter ranges.
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🌍 In what markets it is useful
Because the indicator is based purely on volatility, it works across all asset classes and timeframes:
• Stocks & ETFs → Helps identify breakouts and long-term trends.
• Forex → Very useful in spot FX where volatility shifts frequently.
• Crypto → ATR reacts strongly to high volatility, helping traders adapt stops dynamically.
• Futures & Commodities → Great for tracking trending commodities and managing risk.
Scalpers, swing traders, and position traders can all benefit by adjusting the ATR length and multipliers to suit their trading style.
________________________________________
💡 Originality of this script
This is not just a mashup of existing indicators. It integrates:
• ATR-based Volatility Bands for context,
• A stateful Volatility Stop (adapted and rewritten cleanly),
• Flip arrows and labels for actionable trading signals,
• Volatility spike detection to highlight regime shifts.
The result is a comprehensive volatility-aware trading tool that goes beyond just plotting ATR or trend stops.
________________________________________
🔔 Alerts
• Buy Flip → triggers when the trend changes bullish.
• Sell Flip → triggers when the trend changes bearish.
Traders can connect these alerts to automated strategies, bots, or notification systems.
Rolling Volatility BandsMake sure to view it from the 1D candlestick chart.
The Rolling Volatility Bands indicator provides a statistically-driven approach to visualizing expected daily price movements using true volatility calculations employed by professional options traders. Unlike traditional Bollinger Bands which use price standard deviation around a moving average, this indicator calculates actual daily volatility from log returns over customizable rolling periods (20-day and 60-day), then annualizes the volatility using the standard √252 formula before projecting forward-looking probability bands. The 1 Standard Deviation bands represent a ~68% probability zone where price is expected to trade the following day, while the 2 Standard Deviation bands capture ~95% of expected movements. This methodology mirrors how major exchanges calculate expected moves for earnings and FOMC events, making it invaluable for options strategies like iron condors during low-volatility periods (narrow bands) or directional plays when volatility expands. The indicator works on any timeframe while always utilizing daily candle data via security() calls, ensuring consistent volatility calculations regardless of your chart resolution, and includes real-time annualized volatility percentages plus daily expected range statistics for comprehensive market analysis.
Jose's Rolling VWAP with BandsRolling VWAP with Customizable Deviation Bands
This indicator plots a rolling Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) over a user-defined lookback period, rather than resetting each day or from a fixed anchor point. The rolling calculation makes it act more like a moving average — but weighted by volume — providing a smoother, more adaptive central price line.
It also includes up to three optional deviation bands, which can be independently toggled on/off and assigned their own multipliers. These bands are calculated using the chosen lookback’s standard deviation, giving traders a quick visual of price dispersion around VWAP.
Features:
Adjustable rolling VWAP lookback length
Up to 3 customizable standard deviation bands
Individual checkboxes for enabling/disabling each band
Independent multiplier control for each band
Works on any timeframe and symbol
Uses:
Identify overextended price moves relative to VWAP
Spot dynamic support/resistance zones
Gauge mean reversion opportunities
Confirm trend strength when price hugs or breaks away from VWAP
VWAP with Prev. Session BandsVWAP with Prev. Session Bands is an advanced indicator based on TradingView’s original VWAP. It adds configurable standard deviation or percentage-based bands, both for the current and previous session. You can anchor the VWAP to various timeframes or events (like Sessions, Weeks, Months, Earnings, etc.) and selectively show up to three bands.
The unique feature of this script is the ability to display the VWAP and bands from the previous session, helping traders visualize mean reversion levels or historical volatility ranges.
Built on top of the official TradingView VWAP implementation, this version provides enhanced flexibility and visual clarity for intraday and swing traders alike.
Smooth Fibonacci BandsSmooth Fibonacci Bands
This indicator overlays adaptive Fibonacci bands on your chart, creating dynamic support and resistance zones based on price volatility. It combines a simple moving average with ATR-based Fibonacci levels to generate multiple bands that expand and contract with market conditions.
## Features
- Creates three pairs of upper and lower Fibonacci bands
- Smoothing option for cleaner, less noisy bands
- Fully customizable colors and line thickness
- Adapts automatically to changing market volatility
## Settings
Adjust the SMA and ATR lengths to match your trading timeframe. For short-term trading, try lower values; for longer-term analysis, use higher values. The Fibonacci factors determine how far each band extends from the center line - standard Fibonacci ratios (1.618, 2.618, and 4.236) are provided as defaults.
## Trading Applications
- Use band crossovers as potential entry and exit signals
- Look for price bouncing off bands as reversal opportunities
- Watch for price breaking through multiple bands as strong trend confirmation
- Identify potential support/resistance zones for placing stop losses or take profits
Fibonacci Bands combines the reliability of moving averages with the adaptability of ATR and the natural market harmony of Fibonacci ratios, offering a robust framework for both trend and range analysis.
HILo Ema Double Squeeze BandsHILo Ema Double Squeeze Bands
This advanced technical indicator is a powerful variation of "HiLo Ema squeeze bands" that combines the best elements of Donchian channels and EMAs. It's specially designed to identify price squeezes before significant market moves while providing dynamic support/resistance levels and predictive price targets.
Indicator Concept:
The indicator initializes EMAs at each new high or low - the upper EMA tracks highs while the lower EMA tracks lows. The price range between upper and lower bands is divided into 4 equal zones by these lines:
Upper2 (uppermost line)
Upper1 (upper quartile)
Middle (center line)
Lower1 (lower quartile)
Lower2 (lowermost line)
This creates a more trend-responsive alternative to traditional Donchian channels with clearly defined zones for trade planning.
Key Features:
Dual EMA Band System: Utilizes both short-term and long-term EMAs to create adaptive price channels that respond to different market cycles
Quartile Divisions: Each band set includes middle lines and quartile divisions for more precise entry and exit points
Customizable Parameters: Easily adjust EMA periods and display options to suit your trading style and timeframe
Visual Color Zones: Clear color-coded zones help quickly identify bullish and bearish areas
Optional Extra Divisions: Add more granular internal lines (eighth divisions) for enhanced precision with longer EMA periods
Price Labels Option: Display exact price values for key levels directly on the chart
Price Target Prediction:
One of the most valuable features of this indicator is its ability to help predict potential reversal points:
When price breaks above the Upper2 level, look for potential reversals when the new Upper1 or Middle line aligns with previous Upper2 levels
When price breaks below the Lower2 level, look for potential reversals when the new Lower1 or Middle line aligns with previous Lower2 levels
Settings Guide:
Recommended Settings: 200 for Short EMA, 1000 for Long EMA works extremely well across most timeframes and symbols
Display options allow you to show/hide either band system based on your analysis preferences
The new option to divide the long EMA range into 8 parts instead of 4 is particularly useful when:
Long EMA period is >500
Short EMA is switched off and long EMA is used independently
Perfect for swing traders and position traders looking for a more sophisticated volatility-based overlay that adapts to changing market conditions and provides predictive reversal levels.
Note: This indicator works well across multiple timeframes but is especially effective on H4, Daily and Weekly charts for trend trading.
Savitzky Flow Bands [ChartPrime]An advanced trend-following tool that applies the Savitzky-Golay smoothing algorithm to price and dynamically adapts trend bands to visualize directional bias and trend strength.
savitzky_golay_filter_w_15_vectors(source) =>
float sum = 0.0
float polynomial = 0.0
float coefficients = array.new(16)
// Predefined 15 coefficients
for i = -4 to 4
coefficients.set(i + 4, i) // from -4 to 5
if i == 4
for j = 5 to -4
for g = 8 to 15
coefficients.set(g, j) // from 5 to -4
// Calculate normalization factor as the sum of absolute values of coefficients
float norm_factor = coefficients.sum()
// Loop through coefficients and calculate the weighted sum
for i = 0 to coefficients.size()-1
sum := sum + coefficients.get(i) * source
// Calculate the smoothed value
for i = 1 to length-1
polynomial := math.sum(sum / norm_factor, i) / i
polynomial
⯁ KEY FEATURES & HOW TO USE
Savitzky-Golay Filtered Line (Basis):
Smooths out price noise using the Savitzky-Golay method, offering a more refined trend path than traditional moving averages. This centerline acts as the trend anchor and visually changes color depending on its slope to reflect the active trend direction.
Dynamic Trend Bands (Upper/Lower):
Constructed from the filtered line with a dynamic offset based on recent price volatility (ATR). These bands shift based on price pressure and are locked once price closes beyond them.
Helpful for identifying breakout moments or exhaustion areas where reversals are likely.
Trend Direction Detection:
A directional signal is confirmed when price breaks and closes above the upper band (uptrend) or below the lower band (downtrend).
Provides a clear and systematic way to identify when a trend begins.
Trend Duration Counter (Visual Decay Line):
A fading overlay line shows how long a trend has been active since the last reversal. The longer the trend persists, the more transparent this extension becomes.
This visual fading effect helps traders anticipate potential trend exhaustion and prepare for reversals or take-profit zones.
Reversal Signals (Diamond Markers):
Diamond shapes are plotted at each market shift, allowing users to visually pinpoint when the trend has flipped.
These markers act as decision zones for entry, exit, or stop-loss adjustments based on directional flow changes.
Color-Based Bar and Candle Painting:
Candles are painted green in uptrends and orange in downtrends, providing an intuitive glance at trend state without needing to interpret numbers.
Helps users stay aligned with the trend visually and avoid counter-trend entries.
⯁ CONCLUSION
The Savitzky Flow Bands indicator offers a modernized, visually rich way to track trend shifts using a scientific smoothing method. With dynamic trend envelopes, color-coded cues, and visual markers, it equips traders with a structured framework to follow the market's flow and make data-driven decisions. Ideal for swing traders, momentum strategists, or any trader looking to trade in sync with the prevailing trend.
Dynamic RSI Regression Bands (Zeiierman)█ Overview
The Dynamic RSI Regression Bands (Zeiierman) is a regression channel tool that dynamically resets based on RSI overbought and oversold conditions. It adapts to trend shifts in real time, creating a highly responsive regression framework that visualizes market sentiment and directional momentum with every RSI-triggered event.
Unlike static regression models, this indicator recalibrates its slope and deviation bands only after the RSI crosses predefined thresholds, helping traders pinpoint new phases of momentum, exhaustion, or reversal.
You’re not just measuring the trend — you’re tracking when and where the trend deserves to be re-evaluated.
█ The Assumption:
"A major momentum shift (RSI crossing OB/OS) signals a potential regime change, and thus, the trend model should be recalibrated from that point."
Instead of using a fixed-length regression (which assumes trend relevance over a static window), this script resets the regression calculation every time RSI crosses into extreme territory. The underlying idea is that extreme RSI levels often represent emotional peaks in market behavior and are statistically likely to be followed by a new price structure.
█ How It Works
⚪ RSI-Based Channel Reset
RSI is monitored continuously
If RSI crosses above the Overbought level, the indicator resets and starts a new regression channel
If RSI crosses below the Oversold level, the same reset logic applies
These events act as “anchor points” for dynamic trend analysis
⚪ Regression Channel Logic
A custom linear regression is calculated from the RSI reset point forward
The lookback grows with each bar after the reset, up to a user-defined max
Regression lines are drawn from the reset point to the current bar
⚪ Standard Deviation Bands
Upper and lower bands are plotted around the regression line using the standard deviation
These serve as dynamic volatility envelopes, great for spotting breakouts or reversals
⚪ Rejection Markers
If price hits the upper/lower band and then closes back inside it, a rejection marker is plotted
Helps visualize failed breakouts and areas of absorption or reversal pressure
█ How to Use
⚪ Detect Trend Shifts
Use the RSI resets to identify when the trend might be starting fresh.
⚪ Watch the Bands for Volatility Extremes
Use the outer bands as soft areas of potential reversal or momentum breakout.
⚪ Spot Rejections for Potential Entry Signals
If price moves outside a band but then quickly returns inside, it often means the breakout failed, and price may reverse.
█ Settings Explained
RSI Length – How many bars RSI uses. Shorter = faster.
OB / OS Levels – Crossing these triggers a regression reset.
Base Regression Length – Max number of bars regression can use post-reset.
StdDev Multiplier – Controls band width from the regression line.
Min Bars After Reset – Ensures channel doesn’t form immediately; waits for structure.
Show Reset Markers – Triangles mark where RSI crossed OB/OS.
Show Rejection Markers – Circles mark where the price rejected the channel edge.
-----------------
Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
Accurate Bollinger Bands mcbw_ [True Volatility Distribution]The Bollinger Bands have become a very important technical tool for discretionary and algorithmic traders alike over the last decades. It was designed to give traders an edge on the markets by setting probabilistic values to different levels of volatility. However, some of the assumptions that go into its calculations make it unusable for traders who want to get a correct understanding of the volatility that the bands are trying to be used for. Let's go through what the Bollinger Bands are said to show, how their calculations work, the problems in the calculations, and how the current indicator I am presenting today fixes these.
--> If you just want to know how the settings work then skip straight to the end or click on the little (i) symbol next to the values in the indicator settings window when its on your chart <--
--------------------------- What Are Bollinger Bands ---------------------------
The Bollinger Bands were formed in the 1980's, a time when many retail traders interacted with their symbols via physically printed charts and computer memory for personal computer memory was measured in Kb (about a factor of 1 million smaller than today). Bollinger Bands are designed to help a trader or algorithm see the likelihood of price expanding outside of its typical range, the further the lines are from the current price implies the less often they will get hit. With a hands on understanding many strategies use these levels for designated levels of breakout trades or to assist in defining price ranges.
--------------------------- How Bollinger Bands Work ---------------------------
The calculations that go into Bollinger Bands are rather simple. There is a moving average that centers the indicator and an equidistant top band and bottom band are drawn at a fixed width away. The moving average is just a typical moving average (or common variant) that tracks the price action, while the distance to the top and bottom bands is a direct function of recent price volatility. The way that the distance to the bands is calculated is inspired by formulas from statistics. The standard deviation is taken from the candles that go into the moving average and then this is multiplied by a user defined value to set the bands position, I will call this value 'the multiple'. When discussing Bollinger Bands, that trading community at large normally discusses 'the multiple' as a multiplier of the standard deviation as it applies to a normal distribution (gaußian probability). On a normal distribution the number of standard deviations away (which trades directly use as 'the multiple') you are directly corresponds to how likely/unlikely something is to happen:
1 standard deviation equals 68.3%, meaning that the price should stay inside the 1 standard deviation 68.3% of the time and be outside of it 31.7% of the time;
2 standard deviation equals 95.5%, meaning that the price should stay inside the 2 standard deviation 95.5% of the time and be outside of it 4.5% of the time;
3 standard deviation equals 99.7%, meaning that the price should stay inside the 3 standard deviation 99.7% of the time and be outside of it 0.3% of the time.
Therefore when traders set 'the multiple' to 2, they interpret this as meaning that price will not reach there 95.5% of the time.
---------------- The Problem With The Math of Bollinger Bands ----------------
In and of themselves the Bollinger Bands are a great tool, but they have become misconstrued with some incorrect sense of statistical meaning, when they should really just be taken at face value without any further interpretation or implication.
In order to explain this it is going to get a bit technical so I will give a little math background and try to simplify things. First let's review some statistics topics (distributions, percentiles, standard deviations) and then with that understanding explore the incorrect logic of how Bollinger Bands have been interpreted/employed.
---------------- Quick Stats Review ----------------
.
(If you are comfortable with statistics feel free to skip ahead to the next section)
.
-------- I: Probability distributions --------
When you have a lot of data it is helpful to see how many times different results appear in your dataset. To visualize this people use "histograms", which just shows how many times each element appears in the dataset by stacking each of the same elements on top of each other to form a graph. You may be familiar with the bell curve (also called the "normal distribution", which we will be calling it by). The normal distribution histogram looks like a big hump around zero and then drops off super quickly the further you get from it. This shape (the bell curve) is very nice because it has a lot of very nifty mathematical properties and seems to show up in nature all the time. Since it pops up in so many places, society has developed many different shortcuts related to it that speed up all kinds of calculations, including the shortcut that 1 standard deviation = 68.3%, 2 standard deviations = 95.5%, and 3 standard deviations = 99.7% (these only apply to the normal distribution). Despite how handy the normal distribution is and all the shortcuts we have for it are, and how much it shows up in the natural world, there is nothing that forces your specific dataset to look like it. In fact, your data can actually have any possible shape. As we will explore later, economic and financial datasets *rarely* follow the normal distribution.
-------- II: Percentiles --------
After you have made the histogram of your dataset you have built the "probability distribution" of your own dataset that is specific to all the data you have collected. There is a whole complicated framework for how to accurately calculate percentiles but we will dramatically simplify it for our use. The 'percentile' in our case is just the number of data points we are away from the "middle" of the data set (normally just 0). Lets say I took the difference of the daily close of a symbol for the last two weeks, green candles would be positive and red would be negative. In this example my dataset of day by day closing price difference is:
week 1:
week 2:
sorting all of these value into a single dataset I have:
I can separate the positive and negative returns and explore their distributions separately:
negative return distribution =
positive return distribution =
Taking the 25th% percentile of these would just be taking the value that is 25% towards the end of the end of these returns. Or akin the 100%th percentile would just be taking the vale that is 100% at the end of those:
negative return distribution (50%) = -5
positive return distribution (50%) = +4
negative return distribution (100%) = -10
positive return distribution (100%) = +20
Or instead of separating the positive and negative returns we can also look at all of the differences in the daily close as just pure price movement and not account for the direction, in this case we would pool all of the data together by ignoring the negative signs of the negative reruns
combined return distribution =
In this case the 50%th and 100%th percentile of the combined return distribution would be:
combined return distribution (50%) = 4
combined return distribution (100%) = 10
Sometimes taking the positive and negative distributions separately is better than pooling them into a combined distribution for some purposes. Other times the combined distribution is better.
Most financial data has very different distributions for negative returns and positive returns. This is encapsulated in sayings like "Price takes the stairs up and the elevator down".
-------- III: Standard Deviation --------
The formula for the standard deviation (refereed to here by its shorthand 'STDEV') can be intimidating, but going through each of its elements will illuminate what it does. The formula for STDEV is equal to:
square root ( (sum ) / N )
Going back the the dataset that you might have, the variables in the formula above are:
'mean' is the average of your entire dataset
'x' is just representative of a single point in your dataset (one point at a time)
'N' is the total number of things in your dataset.
Going back to the STDEV formula above we can see how each part of it works. Starting with the '(x - mean)' part. What this does is it takes every single point of the dataset and measure how far away it is from the mean of the entire dataset. Taking this value to the power of two: '(x - mean) ^ 2', means that points that are very far away from the dataset mean get 'penalized' twice as much. Points that are very close to the dataset mean are not impacted as much. In practice, this would mean that if your dataset had a bunch of values that were in a wide range but always stayed in that range, this value ('(x - mean) ^ 2') would end up being small. On the other hand, if your dataset was full of the exact same number, but had a couple outliers very far away, this would have a much larger value since the square par of '(x - mean) ^ 2' make them grow massive. Now including the sum part of 'sum ', this just adds up all the of the squared distanced from the dataset mean. Then this is divided by the number of values in the dataset ('N'), and then the square root of that value is taken.
There is nothing inherently special or definitive about the STDEV formula, it is just a tool with extremely widespread use and adoption. As we saw here, all the STDEV formula is really doing is measuring the intensity of the outliers.
--------------------------- Flaws of Bollinger Bands ---------------------------
The largest problem with Bollinger Bands is the assumption that price has a normal distribution. This is assumption is massively incorrect for many reasons that I will try to encapsulate into two points:
Price return do not follow a normal distribution, every single symbol on every single timeframe has is own unique distribution that is specific to only itself. Therefore all the tools, shortcuts, and ideas that we use for normal distributions do not apply to price returns, and since they do not apply here they should not be used. A more general approach is needed that allows each specific symbol on every specific timeframe to be treated uniquely.
The distributions of price returns on the positive and negative side are almost never the same. A more general approach is needed that allows positive and negative returns to be calculated separately.
In addition to the issues of the normal distribution assumption, the standard deviation formula (as shown above in the quick stats review) is essentially just a tame measurement of outliers (a more aggressive form of outlier measurement might be taking the differences to the power of 3 rather than 2). Despite this being a bit of a philosophical question, does the measurement of outlier intensity as defined by the STDEV formula really measure what we want to know as traders when we're experiencing volatility? Or would adjustments to that formula better reflect what we *experience* as volatility when we are actively trading? This is an open ended question that I will leave here, but I wanted to pose this question because it is a key part of what how the Bollinger Bands work that we all assume as a given.
Circling back on the normal distribution assumption, the standard deviation formula used in the calculation of the bands only encompasses the deviation of the candles that go into the moving average and have no knowledge of the historical price action. Therefore the level of the bands may not really reflect how the price action behaves over a longer period of time.
------------ Delivering Factually Accurate Data That Traders Need------------
In light of the problems identified above, this indicator fixes all of these issue and delivers statistically correct information that discretionary and algorithmic traders can use, with truly accurate probabilities. It takes the price action of the last 2,000 candles and builds a huge dataset of distributions that you can directly select your percentiles from. It also allows you to have the positive and negative distributions calculated separately, or if you would like, you can pool all of them together in a combined distribution. In addition to this, there is a wide selection of moving averages directly available in the indicator to choose from.
Hedge funds, quant shops, algo prop firms, and advanced mechanical groups all employ the true return distributions in their work. Now you have access to the same type of data with this indicator, wherein it's doing all the lifting for you.
------------------------------ Indicator Settings ------------------------------
.
---- Moving average ----
Select the type of moving average you would like and its length
---- Bands ----
The percentiles that you enter here will be pulled directly from the return distribution of the last 2,000 candles. With the typical Bollinger Bands, traders would select 2 standard deviations and incorrectly think that the levels it highlights are the 95.5% levels. Now, if you want the true 95.5% level, you can just enter 95.5 into the percentile value here. Each of the three available bands takes the true percentile you enter here.
---- Separate Positive & Negative Distributions----
If this box is checked the positive and negative distributions are treated indecently, completely separate from each other. You will see that the width of the top and bottom bands will be different for each of the percentiles you enter.
If this box is unchecked then all the negative and positive distributions are pooled together. You will notice that the width of the top and bottom bands will be the exact same.
---- Distribution Size ----
This is the number of candles that the price return is calculated over. EG: to collect the price return over the last 33 candles, the difference of price from now to 33 candles ago is calculated for the last 2,000 candles, to build a return distribution of 2000 points of price differences over 33 candles.
NEGATIVE NUMBERS(<0) == exact number of candles to include;
EG: setting this value to -20 will always collect volatility distributions of 20 candles
POSITIVE NUMBERS(>0) == number of candles to include as a multiple of the Moving Average Length value set above;
EG: if the Moving Average Length value is set to 22, setting this value to 2 will use the last 22*2 = 44 candles for the collection of volatility distributions
MORE candles being include will generally make the bands WIDER and their size will change SLOWER over time.
I wish you focus, dedication, and earnest success on your journey.
Happy trading :)
HPDR Bands IndicatorThe HPDR Bands indicator is a customizable tool designed to help traders visualize dynamic price action zones. By combining historical price ranges with adaptive bands, this script provides clear insights into potential support, resistance, and midline levels. The indicator is well-suited for all trading styles, including trend-following and range-bound strategies.
Features:
Dynamic Price Bands: Calculates price zones based on historical highs and lows, blending long-term and short-term price data for responsive adaptation to current market conditions.
Probability Enhancements: Includes a probability plot derived from the relative position of the closing price within the range, adjusted for volatility to highlight potential price movement scenarios.
Fibonacci-Like Levels: Highlights key levels (100%, 95%, 88%, 78%, 61%, 50%, and 38%) for intuitive visualization of price zones, aiding in identifying high-probability trading opportunities.
Midline Visualization: Displays a midline that serves as a reference for price mean reversion or breakout analysis.
How to Use:
Trending Markets: Use the adaptive upper and lower bands to gauge potential breakout or retracement zones.
Range-Bound Markets: Identify support and resistance levels within the defined price range.
Volatility Analysis: Observe the probability plot and its sensitivity to volatility for informed decision-making.
Important Notes:
This script is not intended as investment advice. It is a tool to assist with market analysis and should be used alongside proper risk management and other trading tools.
The script is provided as-is and without warranty. Users are encouraged to backtest and validate its suitability for their specific trading needs.
Happy Trading!
If you find this script helpful, consider sharing your feedback or suggestions for improvement. Collaboration strengthens the TradingView community, and your input is always appreciated!
Concretum BandsDefinition
The Concretum Bands indicator recreates the Upper and Lower Bound of the Noise Area described in the paper "Beat the Market: An Effective Intraday Momentum Strategy for S&P500 ETF (SPY)" published by Concretum founder Zarattini, along with Barbon and Aziz, in May 2024.
Below we provide all the information required to understand how the indicator is calculated, the rationale behind it and how people can use it.
Idea Behind
The indicator aims to outline an intraday price region where the stock is expected to move without indicating any demand/supply imbalance. When the price crosses the boundaries of the Noise Area, it suggests a significant imbalance that may trigger an intraday trend.
How the Indicator is Calculated
The bands at time HH:MM are computed by taking the open price of day t and then adding/subtracting the average absolute move over the last n days from market open to minute HH:MM . The bands are also adjusted to account for overnight gaps. A volatility multiplier can be used to increase/decrease the width of the bands, similar to other well-known technical bands. The bands described in the paper were computed using a lookback period (length) of 14 days and a Volatility Multiplier of 1. Users can easily adjust these settings.
How to use the indicator
A trader may use this indicator to identify intraday moves that exceed the average move over the most recent period. A break outside the bands could be used as a signal of significant demand/supply imbalance.
Quadratic Weighted Bands"Quadratic Weighted Bands" (QWB) is designed to identify and visualize market trends and volatility using quadratic weighted filtering techniques. It works by applying quadratic weighting to a selected data source over a specified length, enhancing the sensitivity and responsiveness of the indicator to recent market movements. A major advantage of this indicator is the ability to have a longer lookback period without having too much lag. This results in a smoother output that is still very responsive. Its about twice as fast as a normal average so adjust accordingly.
The indicator is customizable, allowing users to select between the normal Quadratic Weighting (QWF) and Volume Quadratic Weighting (VQWF), choose their data source, adjust the lookback period, and modify the deviation multiplier to fit their analysis needs. Additionally, users can customize the colors of the bands and center line.
The color of the central line changes based on the direction of the trend, as well as having a neutral (ranging) color. This visual aspect makes it easier for traders to quickly see the strength and direction of the market.
Style Select: Choose between "Normal Quadratic Weighting" or "Volume Quadratic Weighting" to adapt the indicator based on volume data or standard price data.
Source: This allows for the selection of the input source for the indicator, such as HL2, ensuring the analysis is aligned with specific trading preferences.
Length: Define the lookback period for the average, with the system automatically utilizing the maximum available length if the specified range exceeds available data, ensuring it always works.
Deviation Length: Optionally adjust the lookback period for calculating deviation, enhancing the indicator's sensitivity and accuracy in identifying market volatility.
Multiplier: Fine tune the deviation multiplier to control the width of the bands, allowing traders to adjust for market volatility and personal risk tolerance.
Top Color: Customize the color of the top band, which also affects the center line's appearance. Adjusting the brightness provides visual clarity and personalization.
Bottom Color: Similarly, select the color for the bottom band, which also influences the center line. The option to adjust brightness ensures the indicator's readability and aesthetic preference.
Neutral Color: Designate a color for indicating a ranging market.
Enjoy
Bolingger Bands + Inside Bar BoxesBollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool consist of three bands—an upper, middle, and lower band—that are used to spotlight extreme short-term prices in a security. The upper band represents overbought territory, while the lower band can show you when a security is oversold. Most technicians will use Bollinger Bands® in conjunction with other analysis tools to get a better picture of the current state of a market or security.
An Inside Bar is a two-bar price action trading strategy in which the inside bar is smaller and within the high to low range of the prior bar. Inside bars show a period of consolidation in a market. They often form following a strong move in a market, as it ‘pauses’ to consolidate before making its next move. However, they can also form at market turning points and act as reversal signals from key support or resistance levels.
Smoothing ATR bandThere are two bands calculated with the ATR and I added "Smoothing" into the script.
Smoothing ATR with multiplier can display two bands above and below the price.
We can ONLY find some ATR bands in Community Scripts with "Basic" setting which is used to set Stop Loss.
And yet , Smoothing ATR with multiplier is capable of making traders manifestly recognize OverBought & OverSold.
FurtherMore, I added a condition with "plotshape", which is "Stop Hunt"
Stop Hunt is an absolutely usual strategy to clean the leverage and it always makes high volatility moves.
When high> above band and close< above band , long signal, it means it had been abundantly bought but the larger traders weren't satisfied; therefore, they quickly sold out to lower the price. The sell condition is on the contrary.
The signals mainly make traders manifestly recognize OverBought & OverSold.
Multi Time Frame Composite BandsMulti Time Frame Composite Bands utilizes Fibonacci numbers (5, 8, 13, 21, 34) as period lengths for calculations. The indicator calculates a composite high line (C_high) by averaging the highest prices over Fibonacci periods, incorporating moving averages (SMA) of high prices for added refinement and smoothing. Similarly, a composite low line (C_low) is calculated by averaging the lowest prices with moving averages of low prices. The midline, obtained from the mean of C_high and C_low.
This band can function as volatility bands unlike traditional volatility indicators like Bollinger Bands , ATR bands it does not use traditional measures of volatility such standard deviation , ATR. This hugs closely to the price and during trending markets the some part of the candles stay outside the band and when the entire candle digress outside the band a price correction or reversal can be anticipated. This can be considered as a smoothed Donchian channel.
Bollinger Band ribbonThis indicator plots 9 upper and lower lines with increasing length. Lines are 0.618 upper and lower level of Bollinger band.
