Crypto Mean Reversion System (Pullback & Bounce)Mean Reversion Theory
The indicator operates on the principle that extreme price movements in crypto markets tend to revert toward their mean over time.
Consider this a valuable aid for your dollar-cost averaging strategy, effectively identifying periods ripe for accumulating or divesting from the market.
Research shows that:
Short-term momentum often persists briefly after surges, but extreme moves trigger mean reversion
Sharp drops exhibit strong bounce patterns, especially after capitulation events
Longer timeframes (7-day) show stronger mean reversion tendencies than shorter ones (1-day)
Timeframe Analysis
1-Day Timeframe
Pullback probabilities: 45-85% depending on surge magnitude
Bounce probabilities: 55-95% depending on drop severity
Captures immediate overextension and panic selling
More volatile but faster signal generation
7-Day Timeframe
Pullback probabilities: 50-90% (higher confidence)
Bounce probabilities: 50-90% (slightly moderated)
Filters out noise and identifies sustained trends
Stronger mean reversion signals due to extended moves
Probability Tiers
Pullback Risk (After Surges)
Moderate (45-60%): 5-10% surge → Expected -3% to -12% pullback
High (55-70%): 10-15% surge → Expected -5% to -18% pullback
Very High (65-80%): 15-25% surge → Expected -10% to -25% pullback
Extreme (75-90%): 25%+ surge → Expected -15% to -40% pullback
Bounce Probability (After Drops)
Moderate (55-65%): -5% to -10% drop → Expected +3% to +10% bounce
High (65-75%): -10% to -15% drop → Expected +6% to +18% bounce
Very High (75-85%): -15% to -25% drop → Expected +10% to +30% bounce
Extreme (85-95%): -25%+ drop → Expected +18% to +45% bounce
The probability ranges are derived from:
Crypto volatility patterns: Higher volatility than traditional assets creates stronger mean reversion
Behavioral finance: Extreme moves trigger emotional trading (FOMO/panic) that reverses
Historical backtesting: Probability estimates based on typical reversion patterns in crypto markets
Timeframe correlation: Longer timeframes show increased reversion probability due to reduced noise
Key Features
Dual-direction signals: Identifies both overbought (pullback) and oversold (bounce) conditions
Multi-timeframe confirmation: 1D and 7D analysis for different trading styles
Customizable thresholds: Adjust sensitivity based on asset volatility
Visual alerts: Color-coded labels and table for quick assessment
Risk categorization: Clear severity levels for position sizing
"backtest" için komut dosyalarını ara
LA - MACD EMA BandsOverview of the "LA - MACD EMA Bands" Indicator
For Better view, use this indicator along with "LA - EMA Bands with MTF Dashboard"
The "LA - MACD EMA Bands" is a custom technical indicator written in Pine Script v6 for TradingView. It builds on the traditional Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator by incorporating additional smoothing via Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and Bollinger Bands (BB) applied directly to the MACD line. This creates a multi-layered momentum and volatility tool displayed in a separate pane below the price chart (not overlaid on the price itself).
The indicator allows for customization, such as selecting a different timeframe (for multi-timeframe analysis) and adjusting period lengths. It fetches data from the specified timeframe using request.security with lookahead enabled to avoid repainting issues. The core idea is to provide insights into momentum trends, crossovers, and volatility expansions/contractions in the MACD's behavior, making it suitable for identifying potential trend reversals, continuations, or ranging markets.
Unlike a standard MACD, which focuses primarily on momentum via a single line, signal line, and histogram, this version emphasizes longer-term smoothing and volatility boundaries. It uses visual fills between lines to highlight bullish/bearish conditions, aiding quick interpretation. Below, I'll break down each component, its calculation, visual representation, and practical uses.
Detailed Breakdown of Each Component and Its Uses
MACD Line (Blue Line, Labeled 'MACD Line')
Calculation: This is the core MACD value, computed as the difference between a fast EMA (default length 12) and a slow EMA (default length 144) of the input source (default: close price). The EMAs are calculated on data from the selected timeframe.
Visuals: Plotted as a solid blue line.
Uses:
Measures momentum: When above zero, it indicates bullish momentum (prices rising faster in the short term); below zero, bearish momentum.
Trend identification: Rising MACD suggests strengthening uptrends; falling suggests downtrends.
Divergence spotting: Compare with price action—e.g., if price makes higher highs but MACD makes lower highs, it signals potential bearish reversal (and vice versa for bullish divergence).
In trading: Often used for entry/exit signals when crossing the zero line or other lines in the indicator.
MACD EMA (Red Line, Labeled 'MACD EMA')
Calculation: A 12-period EMA applied to the MACD Line itself.
Visuals: Plotted as a solid red line.
Uses:
Acts as a signal line for the MACD, smoothing out short-term noise.
Crossover signals: When the MACD Line crosses above the MACD EMA, it can signal a bullish buy opportunity; crossing below suggests a bearish sell.
Trend confirmation: Helps filter false signals in choppy markets by requiring confirmation from this slower-moving average.
In trading: Useful for momentum-based strategies, like entering trades on crossovers in alignment with the overall trend.
Fill Between MACD Line and MACD EMA (Green/Red Shaded Area, Titled 'MACD Fill')
Calculation: The area between the MACD Line and MACD EMA is filled with color based on their relative positions.
Color Logic: Green (with 57% transparency) if MACD Line > MACD EMA (bullish); red if MACD Line < MACD EMA (bearish).
Visuals: Semi-transparent fill for easy visibility without overwhelming the lines.
Uses:
Quick visual cue for momentum shifts: Green areas highlight bullish phases; red for bearish.
Enhances readability: Makes crossovers more apparent at a glance, especially in fast-moving markets.
In trading: Can be used to time entries/exits or as a filter (e.g., only take long trades in green zones).
Bollinger Bands on MACD (BB Upper: Black Dotted, BB Basis: Maroon Dotted, BB Lower: Black Dotted)
Calculation: Bollinger Bands applied to the MACD Line.
BB Basis: 144-period EMA of the MACD Line.
BB Standard Deviation: 144-period stdev of the MACD Line.
BB Upper: BB Basis + (2.0 * BB Stdev)
BB Lower: BB Basis - (2.0 * BB Stdev)
Visuals: Upper and lower bands as black dotted lines; basis as maroon dotted
Uses:
Volatility measurement: Bands expand during high momentum volatility (strong trends) and contract during low volatility (ranging or consolidation).
Mean reversion: When MACD Line touches or exceeds the upper band, it may signal overbought conditions (potential sell); lower band for oversold (potential buy).
Squeeze detection: Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede big moves—watch for breakouts.
In trading: Combines momentum with volatility; e.g., a MACD Line breakout above the upper band could confirm a strong uptrend.
BB Basis EMA (Green Line, Labeled 'BB Basis EMA')
Calculation: A 72-period EMA applied to the BB Basis (which is already a 144-period EMA of the MACD Line).
Visuals: Solid green line.
Uses:
Further smoothing: Provides a longer-term view of the MACD's average behavior, reducing noise from the BB Basis.
Trend direction: Acts as a baseline for the BB system—above it suggests bullish bias in momentum volatility; below, bearish.
Crossover with BB Basis: Can signal shifts in volatility trends (e.g., BB Basis crossing above BB Basis EMA indicates increasing bullish volatility).
In trading: Useful for confirming longer-term trends or as a filter for BB-based signals.
Fill Between BB Basis and BB Basis EMA (Gray Shaded Area, Titled 'BB Basis Fill')
Calculation: The area between BB Basis and BB Basis EMA is filled.
Color Logic: Currently set to a constant semi-transparent gray regardless of position.
Visuals: Semi-transparent gray fill.
Uses:
Highlights divergence: Shows when the shorter-term BB Basis deviates from its longer-term EMA, indicating potential volatility shifts.
Visual aid for crossovers: Makes it easier to spot when BB Basis crosses its EMA.
In trading: Could be used to identify overextensions in volatility (e.g., wide gray areas might signal impending mean reversion).
Zero Line (Black Horizontal Line)
Calculation: A simple horizontal line at y=0.
Visuals: Solid black line.
Uses:
Reference point: Divides bullish (above) from bearish (below) territory for all MACD-related lines.
In trading: Crossovers of the zero line by the MACD Line or BB Basis can signal major trend changes.
How It Differs from a Normal MACD
A standard MACD (e.g., the built-in TradingView MACD with defaults 12/26/9) consists of:
MACD Line: EMA(12) - EMA(26).
Signal Line: EMA(MACD Line, 9).
Histogram: MACD Line - Signal Line (bars showing convergence/divergence).
Key differences in "LA - MACD EMA Bands":
Periods: Uses a much longer slow EMA (144 vs. 26), making it more sensitive to long-term trends but less reactive to short-term price action. The MACD EMA is 12 periods (vs. 9), further emphasizing smoothing.
No Histogram: Replaces the histogram with fills and bands for visual emphasis on crossovers and volatility.
Added Bollinger Bands: Applies BB directly to the MACD Line (with a long 144-period basis), introducing volatility analysis absent in standard MACD. This helps detect "squeezes" or expansions in momentum.
Additional EMA Layer: The BB Basis EMA (72-period) adds a secondary smoothing level to the BB system, providing a hierarchical view of momentum (short-term MACD → mid-term BB → long-term EMA).
Multi-Timeframe Support: Built-in option for higher timeframes, unlike basic MACD.
Focus: Standard MACD is purely momentum-focused; this version integrates volatility (via BB) and multi-layer smoothing, making it better for trend-following in volatile markets but potentially overwhelming for beginners.
Overall, this indicator transforms the MACD from a simple oscillator into a comprehensive momentum-volatility hybrid, reducing false signals in trending markets but introducing lag.
Overall Pros and Cons
Pros:
Enhanced Visualization: Fills and bands make trends, crossovers, and volatility easier to spot without needing multiple indicators.
Reduced Noise: Longer periods (144, 72) smooth out whipsaws, ideal for swing or position trading in trending assets like stocks or forex.
Volatility Integration: BB adds a dimension not in standard MACD, helping identify breakouts or consolidations.
Customizable: Inputs for timeframes and lengths allow adaptation to different assets/timeframes.
Multi-Layered Insights: Combines short-term signals (MACD crossovers) with long-term confirmation (BB EMA), improving signal reliability.
Cons:
Lagging Nature: Long periods (e.g., 144) delay signals, missing early entries in fast markets or leading to late exits.
Complexity: Multiple lines and fills can clutter the pane, requiring experience to interpret; beginners might misread it.
Potential Overfitting: Custom periods (12/144/12/144/72) may work well on historical data but underperform in live trading without backtesting.
No Built-in Alerts/Signals: Relies on visual interpretation; users must manually set alerts for crossovers.
Resource Intensive: On lower timeframes or with lookahead, it might slow chart loading on Trading View.
This indicator shines in strategies combining momentum and volatility, like trend-following with BB squeezes, but test it on your assets (e.g., via backtesting) to ensure it fits your style.
For Better view, use this indicator along with "LA - EMA Bands with MTF Dashboard"
Twisted Forex's Doji + Area StrategyTitle
Twisted Forex’s Doji + Area Strategy
Description
What this strategy does
This strategy looks for doji candles forming inside or near supply/demand areas . Areas are built from swing pivots and sized with ATR, then tracked for retests (“confirmations”). When a doji prints close to an area and quality checks pass, the strategy places a trade with the stop beyond the doji and a configurable R:R target.
How areas (zones) are built
• Swings are detected with a user-set pivot length.
• Each swing spawns a horizontal area centered at the pivot price with half-height = zoneHalfATR × ATR .
• Duplicates are de-duplicated by center distance (ATR-scaled).
• Areas fade when broken beyond a buffer or after an optional age (expiry).
• Retests are recorded when price touches and then bounces away from the area; repeated reactions increase the zone’s “strength”.
Signal logic (summary)
Doji detection: strict or loose body criteria with optional minimum wick fractions and ATR-scaled minimum range.
Proximity: price must be inside/near a supply or demand area (proxATR × ATR).
Side resolution: overlap is resolved by (a) which side price penetrates more, (b) fast/slow EMA trend, or (c) nearest distance. Optional “previous candle flip” can bias long after a bearish candle and short after a bullish one.
Optional 1-bar confirmation: the bar after the doji must close away from the area by confirmATR × ATR .
Quality filter (Off/Soft/Strict): four checks—(i) wick rejection past the edge, (ii) doji closes in an edge “band” of the area, (iii) fresh touch (cooldown), (iv) approach impulse over a short lookback. In Strict , thresholds auto-tighten.
Orders & exits
• Long: stop below doji low minus buffer; Short: above doji high plus buffer.
• Target = rrMultiple × risk distance .
• Pyramiding is off by default.
Position sizing
You can size from the script or from Strategy Properties:
• Script-driven (default): set Position sizing = “Risk % of equity” and choose riskPercent (e.g., 1.0%). The script applies safe floors/rounding (FX micro-lots by default) so quantity never rounds to zero.
• Properties-driven : toggle Use TV Properties → Order size ON, then pick “Percent of equity” in Properties (e.g., 1%). The header includes safe defaults so trades still place.
Key inputs to explore
• Zone building : pivotLen, zoneHalfATR, minDepartureATR, expiryBars, breakATR, leftBars, dedupeATR.
• Doji & proximity : strictDoji, dojiBodyFrac, minWickFrac, minRangeATR, proxATR, minBarsBetween.
• Overlap resolution : usePenetration, useTrend (EMA 21/55), “previous candle flip”, needNextBarConf & confirmATR.
• Quality : qualityMode (Off/Soft/Strict), minQualPass/kStrict, wickPenATR, edgeBandFrac, approachLookback, approachMinATR, freshTouchBars.
• Zone strength gating : minStrengthSoft / minStrengthStrict.
• HTF confluence (optional) : useHTFTrend (HTF EMA 34/89) and/or useHTFZoneProx (HTF swing bands).
Tips to make it cleaner / higher quality
• Turn needNextBarConf ON and use confirmATR = 0.10–0.15 .
• Increase approachMinATR (e.g., 0.35–0.45) to require a stronger pre-touch impulse.
• Raise minStrengthSoft/Strict (e.g., 4–6) so only well-reacted zones can signal.
• Use signalsOnlyConfirmed ON if you prefer trades only from zones with retests (the script falls back gracefully when none exist yet).
• Nudge proxATR to 0.5–0.6 to demand tighter proximity to the level.
• Optional: enable useHTFTrend to filter counter-trend setups.
Default settings used in this publication
• Initial capital: 100,000 (illustrative).
• Slippage: 1 tick; Commission: 0% (you can raise commission if you prefer—spread is partly modeled by slippage).
• Sizing: Risk % of equity via inputs; riskPercent = 1.0% ; FX uses micro-lot floors by default.
• Quality: Off by default (Soft/Strict available).
• HTF trend gate: Off by default.
Backtesting notes
For a meaningful sample size, test on liquid symbols/timeframes that yield 100+ trades (e.g., majors on 5–15m over 1–2 years). Backtests are modelled and broker costs/spread vary—validate on your feed and forward-test.
How to read the chart
Shaded bands are supply (above) and demand (below). Brighter bands are the nearest K per side (visual aid). BUY/SELL labels mark entries; colored dots show entry/SL/TP levels. You can hide zones or unconfirmed zones for a cleaner view.
Disclaimer
This is educational material, not financial advice. Trading involves risk. Always test and size responsibly.
Alt buy signal 1H Entry + 4H Confirm (MACD + Stoch RSI + HMA)This indicator is a multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis tool designed for the ALT trading , capturing entry signals on the 1-hour (1H) timeframe and confirming trends on the 4-hour (4H) timeframe. It combines MACD, Stoch RSI, and Hull Moving Average (HMA) to identify precise buy opportunities, particularly at reversal points after a downtrend or during trend shifts. It visually marks both past and current BUY signals for easy reference.
Key Features:
1H Entry Signal (Early Ping): Triggers on a MACD golden cross (below 0) combined with a Stoch RSI oversold cross (below 20), offering an initial buy opportunity.
4H Trend Confirmation (Entry Ready): Validates the trend with a 4H MACD histogram rising (in negative territory) or a golden cross, plus a Stoch RSI turn-up (above 30).
Past BUY Display: Labels past data points where these conditions were met as "1H BUY" or "FULL BUY," facilitating backtesting.
HMA Filter: Optional HMA(16) to confirm price breakouts, enhancing trend validation.
Purpose: Ideal for short-term scalping and swing trading. Supports a two-step strategy: initial partial entry on 1H signals, followed by additional entry on 4H confirmation.
Usage Instructions
Installation: Add the indicator to an IMX/USDT 1H chart on TradingView.
Signal Interpretation:
lime "1H BUY": 1H conditions met, consider initial entry (stop-loss: 3-5% below recent low).
green "FULL BUY": 1H+4H conditions met, confirm trend for additional entry (take-profit: 10% below recent swing high).
Customization: Adjust TF (1H/4H), MACD/Stoch RSI parameters, and HMA usage via the input settings.
Alert Setup: Enable alerts for "ENTRY READY" (1H+4H) or "EARLY PING" (1H only) conditions.
Advantages
Accuracy: Reduces false signals by combining MACD golden cross below 0 with Stoch RSI oversold conditions.
Dual Confirmation: 1H for quick timing and 4H for trend validation, improving risk management.
Visualization: Past BUY points enable easy backtesting and pattern recognition.
Flexibility: 4H confirmation mode adjustable (histogram rise or golden cross).
Limitations
Timeframe Dependency: Optimized for 1H charts; may not work on other timeframes.
Market Conditions: Potential whipsaws in sideways markets; additional filters (e.g., RSI > 50) recommended.
Manual Management: Stop-loss and take-profit require user discretion.
Basic Odds Enhancer: Supply Zone for ShortsHow to Use/Adjust:
On your chart, it marks bars where a 20-bar high coincides with high volume and bearish divergence—flag these as supply zones.
Tweak supply_threshold to 2.0 for stricter volume (fewer but stronger signals).
For zones, manually draw rectangles around the flagged area (use Drawing Tools > Rectangle).
Backtest: Apply to historical data (e.g., EUR/USD 4H) and check win rate with shorts on retests.
This setup typically yields 2-5 signals per week on major pairs, depending on volatility. Test on a demo account, and combine with market context (e.g., avoid shorts in strong uptrends).
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
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Order Block Volumatic FVG StrategyInspired by: Volumatic Fair Value Gaps —
License: CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–ShareAlike).
This script is a non-commercial derivative work that credits the original author and keeps the same license.
What this strategy does
This turns BigBeluga’s visual FVG concept into an entry/exit strategy. It scans bullish and bearish FVG boxes, measures how deep price has mitigated into a box (as a percentage), and opens a long/short when your mitigation threshold and filters are satisfied. Risk is managed with a fixed Stop Loss % and a Trailing Stop that activates only after a user-defined profit trigger.
Additions vs. the original indicator
✅ Strategy entries based on % mitigation into FVGs (long/short).
✅ Lower-TF volume split using upticks/downticks; fallback if LTF data is missing (distributes prior bar volume by close’s position in its H–L range) to avoid NaN/0.
✅ Per-FVG total volume filter (min/max) so you can skip weak boxes.
✅ Age filter (min bars since the FVG was created) to avoid fresh/immature boxes.
✅ Bull% / Bear% share filter (the 46%/53% numbers you see inside each FVG).
✅ Optional candle confirmation and cooldown between trades.
✅ Risk management: fixed SL % + Trailing Stop with a profit trigger (doesn’t trail until your trigger is reached).
✅ Pine v6 safety: no unsupported args, no indexof/clamp/when, reverse-index deletes, guards against zero/NaN.
How a trade is decided (logic overview)
Detect FVGs (same rules as the original visual logic).
For each FVG currently intersected by the bar, compute:
Mitigation % (how deep price has entered the box).
Bull%/Bear% split (internal volume share).
Total volume (printed on the box) from LTF aggregation or fallback.
Age (bars) since the box was created.
Apply your filters:
Mitigation ≥ Long/Short threshold.
Volume between your min and max (if enabled).
Age ≥ min bars (if enabled).
Bull% / Bear% within your limits (if enabled).
(Optional) the current candle must be in trade direction (confirm).
If multiple FVGs qualify on the same bar, the strategy uses the most recent one.
Enter long/short (no pyramiding).
Exit with:
Fixed Stop Loss %, and
Trailing Stop that only starts after price reaches your profit trigger %.
Input settings (quick guide)
Mitigation source: close or high/low. Use high/low for intrabar touches; close is stricter.
Mitigation % thresholds: minimal mitigation for Long and Short.
TOTAL Volume filter: skip FVGs with too little/too much total volume (per box).
Bull/Bear share filter: require, e.g., Long only if Bull% ≥ 50; avoid Short when Bull% is high (Short Bull% max).
Age filter (bars): e.g., ≥ 20–30 bars to avoid fresh boxes.
Confirm candle: require candle direction to match the trade.
Cooldown (bars): minimum bars between entries.
Risk:
Stop Loss % (fixed from entry price).
Activate trailing at +% profit (the trigger).
Trailing distance % (the trailing gap once active).
Lower-TF aggregation:
Auto: TF/Divisor → picks 1/3/5m automatically.
Fixed: choose 1/3/5/15m explicitly.
If LTF can’t be fetched, fallback allocates prior bar’s volume by its close position in the bar’s H–L.
Suggested starting presets (you should optimize per market)
Mitigation: 60–80% for both Long/Short.
Bull/Bear share:
Long: Bull% ≥ 50–70, Bear% ≤ 100.
Short: Bull% ≤ 60 (avoid shorting into strong support), Bear% ≥ 0–70 as you prefer.
Age: ≥ 20–30 bars.
Volume: pick a min that filters noise for your symbol/timeframe.
Risk: SL 4–6%, trailing trigger 1–2%, distance 1–2% (crypto example).
Set slippage/fees in Strategy Properties.
Notes, limitations & best practices
Data differences: The LTF split uses request.security_lower_tf. If the exchange/data feed has sparse LTF data, the fallback kicks in (it’s deliberate to avoid NaNs but is a heuristic).
Real-time vs backtest: The current bar can update until close; results on historical bars use closed data. Use “Bar Replay” to understand intrabar effects.
No pyramiding: Only one position at a time. Modify pyramiding in the header if you need scaling.
Assets: For spot/crypto, TradingView “volume” is exchange volume; in some markets it may be tick volume—interpret filters accordingly.
Risk disclosure: Past performance ≠ future results. Use appropriate position sizing and risk controls; this is not financial advice.
Credits
Visual FVG concept and original implementation: BigBeluga.
This derivative strategy adds entry/exit logic, volume/age/share filters, robust LTF handling, and risk management while preserving the original spirit.
License remains CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (non-commercial, attribution required, share-alike).
Seasonality con números RAMÓN SEGOVIAMonthly Bands – Colored Monthly Stripes for Statistical Analysis
Short Description
This indicator paints vertical background stripes by calendar month on your chart, making it easy to run statistical/seasonality analysis, compare monthly performance, and visually identify recurring patterns across assets and timeframes.
How It Works
Detects each new month and applies a background band spanning from the first to the last candle of that month.
Alternates colors automatically so consecutive months are easy to distinguish, or use a single uniform color for a clean look.
Optional: add dotted lines at the start/end of each month for precise separation.
Inputs / Settings
Color mode: alternating (odd/even months) or single.
Colors & opacity of the bands.
Border style: none / solid / dotted.
Highlight specific months: e.g., “Jan, Apr, Oct” with a different color.
Labels option: show month & year abbreviations at the top/bottom of the chart.
Drawing zone: full background vs. price-only area (to avoid covering lower indicators).
Typical Use Cases
Seasonality studies: identify historically bullish/bearish months.
Visual backtesting: segment the chart by months to evaluate strategy performance.
Context tracking: quickly locate reports, monthly closes, or economic cycles.
Compatibility
Works on all timeframes, including intraday (each band covers the full calendar month).
Lightweight and visual-only; doesn’t interfere with price or indicators.
Pro Tips
Combine with monthly returns (%) or candle counters to quantify each stripe.
Use labels when preparing clean presentations or trade journal screenshots.
Notes
This is a visual tool only, not a buy/sell signal generator.
Default settings are optimized for clarity and minimal clutter.
EMA Crossover Cloud w/Range-Bound FilterA focused 1-minute EMA crossover trading strategy designed to identify high-probability momentum trades while filtering out low-volatility consolidation periods that typically result in whipsaw losses. Features intelligent range-bound detection and progressive market attention alerts to help traders manage focus and avoid overtrading during unfavorable conditions.
Key Features:
EMA Crossover Signals: 10/20 EMA crossovers with volume surge confirmation (1.3x 20-bar average)
Range-Bound Filter: Automatically detects when price is consolidating in tight ranges (0.5% threshold) and blocks trading signals during these periods
Progressive Consolidation Stages: Visual alerts progress through Range Bound (red) → Coiling (yellow) → Loading (orange) → Trending (green) to indicate market compression and potential breakout timing
Market Attention Gauge: Helps manage focus between active trading and other activities with states: Active (watch close), Building (check frequently), Quiet (check occasionally), Dead (handle other business)
Smart RSI Exits: Cloud-based and RSI extreme level exits with conservative stop losses
Dual Mode Operation: Separate settings allow full backtesting performance while providing visual stay-out warnings for manual trading
How to Use:
Entry Signals: Trade aqua up-triangles (long) and orange down-triangles (short) when they appear with volume confirmation
Stay-Out Warnings: Ignore gray "RANGE" triangles - these indicate crossovers during range-bound periods that should be avoided
Monitor Top-Right Display:
Range: Current 60-bar dollar range
Attention: Market activity level for focus management
Status: Consolidation stage (trade green/yellow, avoid red, prepare for orange)
Position Sizing: Default 167 shares per signal, optimized for the crossover frequency
Alerts: Enable consolidation stage alerts and market attention alerts for automated notifications
Recommended Settings:
Timeframe: 1-minute charts
Symbol: Optimized for volatile stocks like TSLA
"Apply Filter to Backtest": Keep OFF for realistic backtesting, ON to see filtered results
Risk Management:
The strategy includes built-in overtrading protection by identifying and blocking trades during low-volatility periods. The progressive consolidation alerts help identify when markets are "loading" for significant moves, allowing traders to position appropriately for higher-probability setups.
Extremum Range MA Crossover Strategy1. Principle of Work & Strategy Logic ⚙️📈
Main idea: The strategy tries to catch the moment of a breakout from a price consolidation range (flat) and the start of a new trend. It combines two key elements:
Moving Average (MA) 📉: Acts as a dynamic support/resistance level and trend filter.
Range Extremes (Range High/Low) 🔺🔻: Define the borders of the recent price channel or consolidation.
The strategy does not attempt to catch absolute tops and bottoms. Instead, it enters an already formed move after the breakout, expecting continuation.
Type: Trend-following, momentum-based.
Timeframes: Works on different TFs (H1, H4, D), but best suited for H4 and higher, where breakouts are more meaningful.
2. Justification of Indicators & Settings ⚙️
A. Moving Average (MA) 📊
Why used: Core of the strategy. It smooths price fluctuations and helps define the trend. The price (via extremes) must cross the MA → signals a potential trend shift or strengthening.
Parameters:
maLength = 20: Default length (≈ one trading month, 20-21 days). Good balance between sensitivity & smoothing.
Lower TF → reduce (10–14).
Higher TF → increase (50).
maSource: Defines price source (default = Close). Alternatives (HL2, HLC3) → smoother, less noisy MA.
maType: Default = EMA (Exponential MA).
Why EMA? Faster reaction to recent price changes vs SMA → useful for breakout strategies.
Other options:
SMA 🟦 – classic, slowest.
WMA 🟨 – weights recent data stronger.
HMA 🟩 – near-zero lag, but “nervous,” more false signals.
DEMA/TEMA 🟧 – even faster & more sensitive than EMA.
VWMA 🔊 – volume-weighted.
ZLEMA ⏱ – reduced lag.
👉 Choice = tradeoff between speed of reaction & false signals.
B. Range Extremes (Previous High/Low) 📏
Why used: Define borders of recent trading range.
prevHigh = local resistance.
prevLow = local support.
Break of these levels on close = trigger.
Parameters:
lookbackPeriod = 5: Searches for highest high / lowest low of last 5 candles. Very recent range.
Higher value (10–20) → wider, stronger ranges but rarer signals.
3. Entry & Exit Rules 🎯
Long signals (BUY) 🟢📈
Condition (longCondition): Previous Low crosses MA from below upwards.
→ Price bounced from the bottom & strong enough to push range border above MA.
Execution: Auto-close short (if any) → open long.
Short signals (SELL) 🔴📉
Condition (shortCondition): Previous High crosses MA from above downwards.
→ Price rejected from the top, upper border failed above MA.
Execution: Auto-close long (if any) → open short.
Exit conditions 🚪
Exit Long (exitLongCondition): Close below prevLow.
→ Uptrend likely ended, range shifts down.
Exit Short (exitShortCondition): Close above prevHigh.
→ Downtrend likely ended, range shifts up.
⚠️ Important: Exit = only on candle close beyond extremes (not just wick).
4. Trading Settings ⚒️
overlay = true → indicators shown on chart.
initial_capital = 10000 💵.
default_qty_type = strategy.cash, default_qty_value = 100 → trades fixed $100 per order (not lots). Can switch to % of equity.
commission_type = strategy.commission.percent, commission_value = 0.1 → default broker fee = 0.1%. Adjust for your broker!
slippage = 3 → slippage = 3 ticks. Adjust to asset liquidity.
currency = USD.
margin_long = 100, margin_short = 100 → no leverage (100% margin).
5. Visualization on Chart 📊
The strategy draws 3 lines:
🔵 MA line (thickness 2).
🔴 Previous High (last N candles).
🟢 Previous Low (last N candles).
Also: entry/exit arrows & equity curve shown in backtest.
Disclaimer ⚠️📌
Risk Warning: This description & code are for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trading (Forex, Stocks, Crypto) carries high risk and may lead to full capital loss. You trade at your own risk.
Testing: Always backtest & demo test first. Past results ≠ future profits.
Responsibility: Author of this strategy & description is not responsible for your trading decisions or losses.
Hilly's Reversal Scalping Strategy - 5 Min CandlesHow to Use
Copy the Code: Copy the script above.
Paste in TradingView: Open TradingView, go to the Pine Editor (bottom of the chart), paste the code, and click “Add to Chart.”
Set Timeframe: Ensure the chart is set to 5-minute candles (TradingView: right-click chart > Timeframe > 5 Minutes).
Check for Errors: Verify no errors appear in the Pine Editor console.
Apply to Chart: Use a liquid crypto pair (e.g., BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT on Binance or Coinbase).
Verify Signals:
Green “BUY” labels and triangle-up arrows for bullish reversals (e.g., bullish engulfing, hammer, doji, morning star, three white soldiers, double bottom in a downtrend).
Red “SELL” labels and triangle-down arrows for bearish reversals (e.g., bearish engulfing, shooting star, doji, evening star, three black crows, double top in an uptrend).
Green/red background highlights for signal candles.
Backtest: Use TradingView’s Strategy Tester to evaluate performance over 1–3 months, checking Net Profit, Win Rate, and Drawdown.
Demo Test: Run on a demo account to confirm signal visibility and performance before trading with real funds.
Troubleshooting
If Errors Occur: If any errors appear in TradingView’s Pine Editor console (e.g., “Syntax error” or “Invalid argument”), please share the exact error messages to diagnose environment-specific issues.
Signal Overload: If too many signals appear, increase patternLookback to 15 or set volFilter = volume > volMa * 2.0.
Missed Signals: If signals are too rare, set useVolumeFilter=false or reduce patternLookback to 5.
Additional Features: If you need alerts, other indicators (e.g., EMA, RSI), or dynamic arrow sizing, please specify. Note that dynamic sizing caused errors previously, so I’ve kept size=size.normal.
Hilly 3.0 Advanced Crypto Scalping Strategy - 1 & 5 Min ChartsHow to Use
Copy the Code: Copy the script above.
Paste in TradingView: Open TradingView, go to the Pine Editor (bottom of the chart), paste the code, and click “Add to Chart.”
Check for Errors: Verify no errors appear in the Pine Editor console. The script uses Pine Script v5 (@version=5).
Select Timeframe:
1-Minute Chart: Use defaults (emaFastLen=7, emaSlowLen=14, rsiLen=10, rsiOverbought=80, rsiOversold=20, slPerc=0.5, tpPerc=1.0, useCandlePatterns=false, patternLookback=10).
5-Minute Chart: Adjust to emaFastLen=9, emaSlowLen=21, rsiLen=14, rsiOverbought=75, rsiOversold=25, slPerc=0.8, tpPerc=1.5, useCandlePatterns=true, patternLookback=10.
Apply to Chart: Use a liquid crypto pair (e.g., BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT on Binance or Coinbase).
Verify Signals:
Green “BUY” or “EMA BUY” labels and triangle-up arrows below candles for bullish signals (EMA crossovers, bullish engulfing, hammer, doji, morning star, three white soldiers, double bottom).
Red “SELL” or “EMA SELL” labels and triangle-down arrows above candles for bearish signals (EMA crossovers, bearish engulfing, shooting star, doji, evening star, three black crows, double top).
Green/red background highlights for signal candles.
Backtest: Use TradingView’s Strategy Tester to evaluate performance over 1–3 months, checking Net Profit, Win Rate, and Drawdown.
Demo Test: Run on a demo account to confirm signal visibility and performance before trading with real funds.
Hilly 2.0 Advanced Crypto Scalping Strategy - 1 & 5 Min ChartsHow to Use
Copy the Code: Copy the script above.
Paste in TradingView: Open TradingView, go to the Pine Editor (bottom of the chart), paste the code, and click “Add to Chart.”
Check for Errors: Verify no errors appear in the Pine Editor console. The script uses Pine Script v5 (@version=5).
Select Timeframe:
1-Minute Chart: Use defaults (emaFastLen=7, emaSlowLen=14, rsiLen=10, rsiOverbought=80, rsiOversold=20, slPerc=0.5, tpPerc=1.0, useCandlePatterns=false).
5-Minute Chart: Adjust to emaFastLen=9, emaSlowLen=21, rsiLen=14, rsiOverbought=75, rsiOversold=25, slPerc=0.8, tpPerc=1.5, useCandlePatterns=true.
Apply to Chart: Use a liquid crypto pair (e.g., BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT on Binance or Coinbase).
Verify Signals:
Green “BUY” or “EMA BUY” labels and triangle-up arrows below candles.
Red “SELL” or “EMA SELL” labels and triangle-down arrows above candles.
Green/red background highlights for signal candles.
Arrows use size.normal for consistent visibility.
Backtest: Use TradingView’s Strategy Tester to evaluate performance over 1–3 months, checking Net Profit, Win Rate, and Drawdown.
Demo Test: Run on a demo account to confirm signal visibility and performance before trading with real funds.
Laguerre-Kalman Adaptive Filter | AlphaNattLaguerre-Kalman Adaptive Filter |AlphaNatt
A sophisticated trend-following indicator that combines Laguerre polynomial filtering with Kalman optimal estimation to create an ultra-smooth, low-lag trend line with exceptional noise reduction capabilities.
"The perfect trend line adapts to market conditions while filtering out noise - this indicator achieves both through advanced mathematical techniques rarely seen in retail trading."
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🎯 KEY FEATURES
Dual-Filter Architecture: Combines two powerful filtering methods for superior performance
Adaptive Volatility Adjustment: Automatically adapts to market conditions
Minimal Lag: Laguerre polynomials provide faster response than traditional moving averages
Optimal Noise Reduction: Kalman filtering removes market noise while preserving trend
Clean Visual Design: Color-coded trend visualization (cyan/pink)
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📊 THE MATHEMATICS
1. Laguerre Filter Component
The Laguerre filter uses a cascade of four all-pass filters with a single gamma parameter:
4th order IIR (Infinite Impulse Response) filter
Single parameter (gamma) controls all filter characteristics
Provides smoother output than EMA with similar lag
Based on Laguerre polynomials from quantum mechanics
2. Kalman Filter Component
Implements a simplified Kalman filter for optimal estimation:
Prediction-correction algorithm from aerospace engineering
Dynamically adjusts based on estimation error
Provides mathematically optimal estimate of true price trend
Reduces noise while maintaining responsiveness
3. Adaptive Mechanism
Monitors market volatility in real-time
Adjusts filter parameters based on current conditions
More responsive in trending markets
More stable in ranging markets
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⚙️ INDICATOR SETTINGS
Laguerre Gamma (0.1-0.99): Controls filter smoothness. Higher = smoother but more lag
Adaptive Period (5-100): Lookback for volatility calculation
Kalman Noise Reduction (0.1-2.0): Higher = more noise filtering
Trend Threshold (0.0001-0.01): Minimum change to register trend shift
Recommended Settings:
Scalping: Gamma: 0.6, Period: 10, Noise: 0.3
Day Trading: Gamma: 0.8, Period: 20, Noise: 0.5 (default)
Swing Trading: Gamma: 0.9, Period: 30, Noise: 0.8
Position Trading: Gamma: 0.95, Period: 50, Noise: 1.2
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📈 TRADING SIGNALS
Primary Signals:
Cyan Line: Bullish trend - price above filter and filter ascending
Pink Line: Bearish trend - price below filter or filter descending
Color Change: Potential trend reversal point
Entry Strategies:
Trend Continuation: Enter on pullback to filter line in trending market
Trend Reversal: Enter on color change with volume confirmation
Breakout: Enter when price crosses filter with momentum
Exit Strategies:
Exit long when line turns from cyan to pink
Exit short when line turns from pink to cyan
Use filter as trailing stop in strong trends
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✨ ADVANTAGES OVER TRADITIONAL INDICATORS
Vs. Moving Averages:
Significantly less lag while maintaining smoothness
Adaptive to market conditions
Better noise filtering
Vs. Standard Filters:
Dual-filter approach provides optimal estimation
Mathematical foundation from signal processing
Self-adjusting parameters
Vs. Other Trend Indicators:
Cleaner signals with fewer whipsaws
Works across all timeframes
No repainting or lookahead bias
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🎓 MATHEMATICAL BACKGROUND
The Laguerre filter was developed by John Ehlers, applying Laguerre polynomials (used in quantum mechanics) to financial markets. These polynomials provide an elegant solution to the lag-smoothness tradeoff that plagues traditional moving averages.
The Kalman filter, developed by Rudolf Kalman in 1960, is used in everything from GPS systems to spacecraft navigation. It provides the mathematically optimal estimate of a system's state given noisy measurements.
By combining these two approaches, this indicator achieves what neither can alone: a smooth, responsive trend line that adapts to market conditions while filtering out noise.
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💡 TIPS FOR BEST RESULTS
Confirm with Volume: Strong trends should have increasing volume
Multiple Timeframes: Use higher timeframe for trend, lower for entry
Combine with Momentum: RSI or MACD can confirm filter signals
Market Conditions: Adjust noise parameter based on market volatility
Backtesting: Always test settings on your specific instrument
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⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES
No indicator is perfect - always use proper risk management
Best suited for trending markets
May produce false signals in choppy/ranging conditions
Not financial advice - for educational purposes only
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🚀 CONCLUSION
The Laguerre-Kalman Adaptive Filter represents a significant advancement in technical analysis, bringing institutional-grade mathematical techniques to retail traders. Its unique combination of polynomial filtering and optimal estimation provides a clean, reliable trend-following tool that adapts to changing market conditions.
Whether you're scalping on the 1-minute chart or position trading on the daily, this indicator provides clear, actionable signals with minimal false positives.
"In the world of technical analysis, the edge comes from using better mathematics. This indicator delivers that edge."
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Developed by AlphaNatt | Professional Quantitative Trading Tools
Version: 1.0
Last Updated: 2025
Pine Script: v6
License: Open Source
Not financial advice. Always DYOR
[blackcat] L1 Value Trend IndicatorOVERVIEW
The L1 Value Trend Indicator is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed for TradingView users seeking advanced market trend identification and trading signals. This comprehensive indicator combines multiple analytical techniques to provide traders with a holistic view of market dynamics, helping identify potential entry and exit points through various signal mechanisms. 📈 It features a main Value Trend line along with a lagged version, golden cross and dead cross signals, and multiple technical indicators including RSI, Williams %R, Stochastic %K/D, and Relative Strength calculations. The indicator also includes reference levels for support and resistance analysis, making it a versatile tool for both short-term and long-term trading strategies. ✅
FEATURES
📈 Primary Value Trend Line: Calculates a smoothed value trend using a combination of SMA and custom smoothing techniques
🔍 Value Trend Lag: Implements a lagged version of the main trend line for cross-over analysis
🚀 Golden Cross & Dead Cross Signals: Identifies buy/sell opportunities when the main trend line crosses its lagged version
💸 Multi-Indicator Integration: Combines multiple technical analysis tools for comprehensive market view
📊 RSI Calculations: Includes 6-period, 7-period, and 13-period RSI calculations for momentum analysis
📈 Williams %R: Provides overbought/oversold conditions using the Williams %R formula
📉 Stochastic Oscillator: Implements both Stochastic %K and %D calculations for momentum confirmation
📋 Relative Strength: Calculates relative strength based on highest highs and current price
✅ Visual Labels: Displays BUY and SELL labels on chart when crossover conditions are met
📣 Alert Conditions: Provides automated alert conditions for golden cross and dead cross events
📌 Reference Levels: Plots entry (25) and exit (75) reference lines for support/resistance analysis
HOW TO USE
Copy the Script: Copy the complete Pine Script code from the original file
Open TradingView: Navigate to TradingView website or application
Access Pine Editor: Go to the Pine Script editor (usually found in the chart toolbar)
Paste Code: Paste the copied script into the editor
Save Script: Save the script with a descriptive name like " L1 Value Trend Indicator"
Select Chart: Choose the chart where you want to apply the indicator
Add Indicator: Apply the indicator to your chart
Configure Parameters: Adjust input parameters to customize behavior
Monitor Signals: Watch for golden cross (BUY) and dead cross (SELL) signals
Use Reference Levels: Monitor entry (25) and exit (75) lines for support/resistance levels
LIMITATIONS
⚠️ Potential Repainting: The script may repaint due to lookahead bias in some calculations
📉 Lookahead Bias: Some calculations may reference future values, potentially causing repainting issues
🔄 Parameter Sensitivity: Results may vary significantly with different parameter settings
📉 Computational Complexity: May impact chart performance with heavy calculations on large datasets
📊 Resource Usage: Requires significant processing power for multiple indicator calculations
🔄 Data Sensitivity: Results may be affected by data quality and market conditions
NOTES
📈 Signal Timing: Cross-over signals may lag behind actual price movements
📉 Parameter Optimization: Optimal parameters may vary by market conditions and asset type
📋 Market Conditions: Performance may vary significantly across different market environments
📈 Multi-Indicator: Combine signals with other technical indicators for confirmation
📉 Timeframe Analysis: Use multiple timeframes for enhanced signal accuracy
📋 Volume Analysis: Incorporate volume data for additional confirmation
📈 Strategy Integration: Consider using this indicator as part of a broader trading strategy
📉 Risk Management: Use signals as part of a comprehensive risk management approach
📋 Backtesting: Test parameter combinations with historical data before live trading
THANKS
🙏 Original Creator: blackcat1402 creates the L1 Value Trend Indicator
📚 Community Contributions: Recognition to TradingView community for continuous improvements and contributions
📈 Collaborative Development: Appreciation for collaborative efforts in enhancing technical analysis tools
📉 TradingView Community: Special thanks to TradingView community members for their ongoing support and feedback
📋 Educational Resources: Recognition of educational resources that helped in understanding technical analysis principles
Squeeze Momentum Regression Clouds [SciQua]╭──────────────────────────────────────────────╮
☁️ Squeeze Momentum Regression Clouds
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🔍 Overview
The Squeeze Momentum Regression Clouds (SMRC) indicator is a powerful visual tool for identifying price compression , trend strength , and slope momentum using multiple layers of linear regression Clouds. Designed to extend the classic squeeze framework, this indicator captures the behavior of price through dynamic slope detection, percentile-based spread analytics, and an optional UI for trend inspection — across up to four customizable regression Clouds .
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⚙️ Core Features
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Up to 4 Regression Clouds – Each Cloud is created from a top and bottom linear regression line over a configurable lookback window.
Slope Detection Engine – Identifies whether each band is rising, falling, or flat based on slope-to-ATR thresholds.
Spread Compression Heatmap – Highlights compressed zones using yellow intensity, derived from historical spread analysis.
Composite Trend Scoring – Aggregates directional signals from each Cloud using your chosen weighting model.
Color-Coded Candles – Optional candle coloring reflects the real-time composite score.
UI Table – A toggleable info table shows slopes, compression levels, percentile ranks, and direction scores for each Cloud.
Gradient Cloud Styling – Apply gradient coloring from Cloud 1 to Cloud 4 for visual slope intensity.
Weight Aggregation Options – Use equal weighting, inverse-length weighting, or max pooling across Clouds to determine composite trend strength.
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🧪 How to Use the Indicator
1. Understand Trend Bias with Cloud Colors
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Each Cloud changes color based on its current slope:
Green indicates a rising trend.
Red indicates a falling trend.
Gray indicates a flat slope — often seen during chop or transitions.
Cloud 1 typically reflects short-term structure, while Cloud 4 represents long-term directional bias. Watch for multi-Cloud alignment — when all Clouds are green or red, the trend is strong. Divergence among Clouds often signals a potential shift.
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2. Use Compression Heat to Anticipate Breakouts
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The space between each Cloud’s top and bottom regression lines is measured, normalized, and analyzed over time. When this spread tightens relative to its history, the script highlights the band with a yellow compression glow .
This visual cue helps identify squeeze zones before volatility expands. If you see compression paired with a changing slope color (e.g., gray to green), this may indicate an impending breakout.
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3. Leverage the Optional Table UI
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The indicator includes a dynamic, floating table that displays real-time metrics per Cloud. These include:
Slope direction and value , with historical Min/Max reference.
Top and Bottom percentile ranks , showing how price sits within the Cloud range.
Current spread width , compared to its historical norms.
Composite score , which blends trend, slope, and compression for that Cloud.
You can customize the table’s position, theme, transparency, and whether to show a combined summary score in the header.
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4. Analyze Candle Color for Composite Signals
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When enabled, the indicator colors candles based on a weighted composite score. This score factors in:
The signed slope of each Cloud (up, down, or flat)
The percentile pressure from the top and bottom bands
The degree of spread compression
Expect green candles in bullish trend phases, red candles during bearish regimes, and gray candles in mixed or low-conviction zones.
Candle coloring provides a visual shorthand for market conditions , useful for intraday scanning or historical backtesting.
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🧰 Configuration Guidance
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To tailor the indicator to your strategy:
Use Cloud lengths like 21, 34, 55, and 89 for a balanced multi-timeframe view.
Adjust the slope threshold (default 0.05) to control how sensitive the trend coloring is.
Set the spread floor (e.g., 0.15) to tune when compression is detected and visualized.
Choose your weighting style : Inverse Length (favor faster bands), Equal, or Max Pooling (most aggressive).
Set composite weights to emphasize trend slope, percentile bias, or compression—depending on your market edge.
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✅ Best Practices
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Use aligned Cloud colors across all bands to confirm trend conviction.
Combine slope direction with compression glow for early breakout entry setups.
In choppy markets, watch for Clouds 1 and 2 turning flat while Clouds 3 and 4 remain directional — a sign of potential trend exhaustion or consolidation.
Keep the table enabled during backtesting to manually evaluate how each Cloud behaved during price turns and consolidations.
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📌 License & Usage Terms
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This script is provided under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License .
✅ You are allowed to:
Use this script for personal or educational purposes
Study, learn, and adapt it for your own non-commercial strategies
❌ You are not allowed to:
Resell or redistribute the script without permission
Use it inside any paid product or service
Republish without giving clear attribution to the original author
For commercial licensing , private customization, or collaborations, please contact Joshua Danford directly.
BUY in HASH RibbonsHash Ribbons Indicator (BUY Signal)
A TradingView Pine Script v6 implementation for identifying Bitcoin miner capitulation (“Springs”) and recovery phases based on hash rate data. It marks potential low-risk buying opportunities by tracking short- and long-term moving averages of the network hash rate.
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Key Features
• Hash Rate SMAs
• Short-term SMA (default: 30 days)
• Long-term SMA (default: 60 days)
• Phase Markers
• Gray circle: Short SMA crosses below long SMA (start of capitulation)
• White circles: Ongoing capitulation, with brighter white when the short SMA turns upward
• Yellow circle: Short SMA crosses back above long SMA (end of capitulation)
• Orange circle: Buy signal once hash rate recovery aligns with bullish price momentum (10-day price SMA crosses above 20-day price SMA)
• Display Modes
• Ribbons: Plots the two SMAs as colored bands—red for capitulation, green for recovery
• Oscillator: Shows the percentage difference between SMAs as a histogram (red for negative, blue for positive)
• Optional Overlays
• Bitcoin halving dates (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024) with dashed lines and labels
• Raw hash rate data in EH/s
• Alerts
• Configurable alerts for capitulation start, recovery, and buy signals
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How It Works
1. Data Source: Fetches daily hash rate values from a selected provider (e.g., IntoTheBlock, Quandl).
2. Capitulation Detection: When the 30-day SMA falls below the 60-day SMA, miners are likely capitulating.
3. Recovery Identification: A rising 30-day SMA during capitulation signals miner recovery.
4. Buy Signal: Confirmed when the hash rate recovery coincides with a bullish shift in price momentum (10-day price SMA > 20-day price SMA).
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Inputs
Hash Rate Short SMA: 30 days
Hash Rate Long SMA: 60 days
Plot Signals: On
Plot Halvings: Off
Plot Raw Hash Rate: Off
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Considerations
• Timeframe: Best applied on daily charts to capture meaningful miner behavior.
• Data Reliability: Ensure the chosen hash rate source provides consistent, gap-free data.
• Risk Management: Use alongside other technical indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) and fundamental analysis.
• Backtesting: Evaluate performance over different market cycles before live deployment.
Trigonometric StochasticTrigonometric Stochastic - Mathematical Smoothing Oscillator
Overview
A revolutionary approach to stochastic oscillation using sine wave mathematical smoothing. This indicator transforms traditional stochastic calculations through trigonometric functions, creating an ultra-smooth oscillator that reduces noise while maintaining sensitivity to price changes.
Mathematical Foundation
Unlike standard stochastic oscillators, this version applies sine wave smoothing:
• Raw Stochastic: (close - lowest_low) / (highest_high - lowest_low) × 100
• Trigonometric Smoothing: 50 + 50 × sin(2π × raw_stochastic / 100)
• Result: Naturally smooth oscillator with mathematical precision
Key Features
Advanced Smoothing Technology
• Sine Wave Filter: Eliminates choppy movements while preserving signal integrity
• Natural Boundaries: Mathematically constrained between 0-100
• Reduced False Signals: Trigonometric smoothing filters market noise effectively
Traditional Stochastic Levels
• Overbought Zone: 80 level (dashed line)
• Oversold Zone: 20 level (dashed line)
• Midline: 50 level (dotted line) - equilibrium point
• Visual Clarity: Clean oscillator panel with clear level markings
Smart Signal Generation
• Anti-Repaint Logic: Uses confirmed previous bar values
• Buy Signals: Generated when crossing above 30 from oversold territory
• Sell Signals: Generated when crossing below 70 from overbought territory
• Crossover Detection: Precise entry/exit timing
Professional Presentation
• Separate Panel: Dedicated oscillator window (overlay=false)
• Price Format: Formatted as price indicator with 2-decimal precision
• Theme Adaptive: Automatically matches your chart color scheme
Parameters
• Cycle Length (5-200): Period for highest/lowest calculations
- Shorter periods = more sensitive, more signals
- Longer periods = smoother, fewer but stronger signals
Trading Applications
Momentum Analysis
• Overbought/Oversold: Clear visual identification of extreme levels
• Momentum Shifts: Early detection of momentum changes
• Trend Strength: Monitor oscillator position relative to midline
Signal Trading
• Long Entries: Buy when crossing above 30 (oversold bounce)
• Short Entries: Sell when crossing below 70 (overbought rejection)
• Confirmation Tool: Use with trend indicators for higher probability trades
Divergence Detection
• Bullish Divergence: Price makes lower lows, oscillator makes higher lows
• Bearish Divergence: Price makes higher highs, oscillator makes lower highs
• Early Warning: Spot potential trend reversals before they occur
Trading Strategies
Scalping (5-15min timeframes)
• Use cycle length 10-14 for quick signals
• Focus on 20/80 level bounces
• Combine with price action confirmation
Swing Trading (1H-4H timeframes)
• Use cycle length 20-30 for reliable signals
• Wait for clear crossovers with momentum
• Monitor divergences for reversal setups
Position Trading (Daily+ timeframes)
• Use cycle length 50+ for major signals
• Focus on extreme readings (below 10, above 90)
• Combine with fundamental analysis
Advantages Over Standard Stochastic
1. Smoother Action: Sine wave smoothing reduces whipsaws
2. Mathematical Precision: Trigonometric functions provide consistent behavior
3. Maintained Sensitivity: Smoothing doesn't compromise signal quality
4. Reduced Noise: Cleaner signals in volatile markets
5. Visual Appeal: More aesthetically pleasing oscillator movement
Best Practices
• Market Context: Consider overall trend direction
• Multiple Timeframe: Confirm signals on higher timeframes
• Risk Management: Always use proper position sizing
• Backtesting: Test parameters on your preferred instruments
• Combination: Works excellently with trend-following indicators
Built-in Alerts
• Buy Alert: Trigonometric stochastic oversold crossover
• Sell Alert: Trigonometric stochastic overbought crossunder
Technical Specifications
• Pine Script Version: v6
• Panel: Separate oscillator window
• Format: Price indicator with 2-decimal precision
• Performance: Optimized for all timeframes
• Compatibility: Works with all instruments
Free and open-source indicator. Modify, improve, and share with the community!
Educational Value: Perfect for traders wanting to understand how mathematical smoothing improves oscillators and trigonometric applications in technical analysis.
National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)This is one of the most important macro indicators in my trading arsenal due to its reliability across different market regimes. I'm excited to share this with the TradingView community because this Federal Reserve data is not only completely free but extraordinarily useful for portfolio management and risk assessment.
**Important Disclaimers**: Be aware that some NFCI components are updated only monthly but carry significant weighting in the composite index. Additionally, the Fed occasionally revises historical NFCI data, so historical backtests should be interpreted with some caution. Nevertheless, this remains a crucial leading indicator for financial stress conditions.
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## What is the National Financial Conditions Index?
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) is a comprehensive measure of financial stress and liquidity conditions developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. This indicator synthesizes over 100 financial market variables into a single, interpretable metric that captures the overall state of financial conditions in the United States (Brave & Butters, 2011).
**Key Principle**: When the NFCI is positive, financial conditions are tighter than average; when negative, conditions are looser than average. Values above +1.0 historically coincide with financial crises, while values below -1.0 often signal bubble-like conditions.
## Scientific Foundation & Research
The NFCI methodology is grounded in extensive academic research:
### Core Research Foundation
- **Brave, S., & Butters, R. A. (2011)**. "Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach." *Economic Perspectives*, 35(1), 22-43.
- **Hatzius, J., Hooper, P., Mishkin, F. S., Schoenholtz, K. L., & Watson, M. W. (2010)**. "Financial conditions indexes: A fresh look after the financial crisis." *US Monetary Policy Forum Report*, No. 23.
- **Kliesen, K. L., Owyang, M. T., & Vermann, E. K. (2012)**. "Disentangling diverse measures: A survey of financial stress indexes." *Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review*, 94(5), 369-397.
### Methodological Validation
The NFCI employs Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to extract common factors from financial market data, following the methodology established by **English, W. B., Tsatsaronis, K., & Zoli, E. (2005)** in "Assessing the predictive power of measures of financial conditions for macroeconomic variables." The index has been validated through extensive academic research (Koop & Korobilis, 2014).
## NFCI Components Explained
This indicator provides access to all five official NFCI variants:
### 1. **Main NFCI**
The primary composite index incorporating all financial market sectors. This serves as the main signal for portfolio allocation decisions.
### 2. **Adjusted NFCI (ANFCI)**
Removes the influence of credit market disruptions to focus on non-credit financial stress. Particularly useful during banking crises when credit markets may be impaired but other financial conditions remain stable.
### 3. **Credit Sub-Index**
Isolates credit market conditions including corporate bond spreads, commercial paper rates, and bank lending standards. Important for assessing corporate financing stress.
### 4. **Leverage Sub-Index**
Measures systemic leverage through margin requirements, dealer financing, and institutional leverage metrics. Useful for identifying leverage-driven market stress.
### 5. **Risk Sub-Index**
Captures market-based risk measures including volatility, correlation, and tail risk indicators. Provides indication of risk appetite shifts.
## Practical Trading Applications
### Portfolio Allocation Framework
Based on the academic research, the NFCI can be used for portfolio positioning:
**Risk-On Positioning (NFCI declining):**
- Consider increasing equity exposure
- Reduce defensive positions
- Evaluate growth-oriented sectors
**Risk-Off Positioning (NFCI rising):**
- Consider reducing equity exposure
- Increase defensive positioning
- Favor large-cap, dividend-paying stocks
### Academic Validation
According to **Oet, M. V., Eiben, R., Bianco, T., Gramlich, D., & Ong, S. J. (2011)** in "The financial stress index: Identification of systemic risk conditions," financial conditions indices like the NFCI provide early warning capabilities for systemic risk conditions.
**Illing, M., & Liu, Y. (2006)** demonstrated in "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada" that composite financial stress measures can be useful for predicting economic downturns.
## Advanced Features of This Implementation
### Dynamic Background Coloring
- **Green backgrounds**: Risk-On conditions - potentially favorable for equity investment
- **Red backgrounds**: Risk-Off conditions - time for defensive positioning
- **Intensity varies**: Based on deviation from trend for nuanced risk assessment
### Professional Dashboard
Real-time analytics table showing:
- Current NFCI level and interpretation (TIGHT/LOOSE/NEUTRAL)
- Individual sub-index readings
- Change analysis
- Portfolio guidance (Risk On/Risk Off)
### Alert System
Professional-grade alerts for:
- Risk regime changes
- Extreme stress conditions (NFCI > 1.0)
- Bubble risk warnings (NFCI < -1.0)
- Major trend reversals
## Optimal Usage Guidelines
### Best Timeframes
- **Daily charts**: Recommended for intermediate-term positioning
- **Weekly charts**: Suitable for longer-term portfolio allocation
- **Intraday**: Less effective due to weekly update frequency
### Complementary Indicators
For enhanced analysis, combine NFCI signals with:
- **VIX levels**: Confirm stress readings
- **Credit spreads**: Validate credit sub-index signals
- **Moving averages**: Determine overall market trend context
- **Economic surprise indices**: Gauge fundamental backdrop
### Position Sizing Considerations
- **Extreme readings** (|NFCI| > 1.0): Consider higher conviction positioning
- **Moderate readings** (|NFCI| 0.3-1.0): Standard position sizing
- **Neutral readings** (|NFCI| < 0.3): Consider reduced conviction
## Important Limitations & Considerations
### Data Frequency Issues
**Critical Warning**: While the main NFCI updates weekly (typically Wednesdays), some underlying components update monthly. Corporate bond indices and commercial paper rates, which carry significant weight, may cause delayed reactions to current market conditions.
**Component Update Schedule:**
- **Weekly Updates**: Main NFCI composite, most equity volatility measures
- **Monthly Updates**: Corporate bond spreads, commercial paper rates
- **Quarterly Updates**: Banking sector surveys
- **Impact**: Significant portion of index weight may lag current conditions
### Historical Revisions
The Federal Reserve occasionally revises NFCI historical data as new information becomes available or methodologies are refined. This means backtesting results should be interpreted cautiously, and the indicator works best for forward-looking analysis rather than precise historical replication.
### Market Regime Dependency
The NFCI effectiveness may vary across different market regimes. During extended sideways markets or regime transitions, signals may be less reliable. Consider combining with trend-following indicators for optimal results.
**Bottom Line**: Use NFCI for medium-term portfolio positioning guidance. Trust the directional signals while remaining aware of data revision risks and update frequency limitations. This indicator is particularly valuable during periods of financial stress when reliable guidance is most needed.
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**Data Source**: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
**Update Frequency**: Weekly (typically Wednesdays)
**Historical Coverage**: 1973-present
**Cost**: Free (public Fed data)
*This indicator is for educational and analytical purposes. Always conduct your own research and risk assessment before making investment decisions.*
## References
Brave, S., & Butters, R. A. (2011). Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach. *Economic Perspectives*, 35(1), 22-43.
English, W. B., Tsatsaronis, K., & Zoli, E. (2005). Assessing the predictive power of measures of financial conditions for macroeconomic variables. *BIS Papers*, 22, 228-252.
Hatzius, J., Hooper, P., Mishkin, F. S., Schoenholtz, K. L., & Watson, M. W. (2010). Financial conditions indexes: A fresh look after the financial crisis. *US Monetary Policy Forum Report*, No. 23.
Illing, M., & Liu, Y. (2006). Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada. *Bank of Canada Working Paper*, 2006-02.
Kliesen, K. L., Owyang, M. T., & Vermann, E. K. (2012). Disentangling diverse measures: A survey of financial stress indexes. *Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review*, 94(5), 369-397.
Koop, G., & Korobilis, D. (2014). A new index of financial conditions. *European Economic Review*, 71, 101-116.
Oet, M. V., Eiben, R., Bianco, T., Gramlich, D., & Ong, S. J. (2011). The financial stress index: Identification of systemic risk conditions. *Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper*, 11-30.
Faytterro Bands Breakout📌 Faytterro Bands Breakout 📌
This indicator was created as a strategy showcase for another script: Faytterro Bands
It’s meant to demonstrate a simple breakout strategy based on Faytterro Bands logic and includes performance tracking.
❓ What Is It?
This script is a visual breakout strategy based on a custom moving average and dynamic deviation bands, similar in concept to Bollinger Bands but with unique smoothing (centered regression) and performance features.
🔍 What Does It Do?
Detects breakouts above or below the Faytterro Band.
Plots visual trade entries and exits.
Labels each trade with percentage return.
Draws profit/loss lines for every trade.
Shows cumulative performance (compounded return).
Displays key metrics in the top-right corner:
Total Return
Win Rate
Total Trades
Number of Wins / Losses
🛠 How Does It Work?
Bullish Breakout: When price crosses above the upper band and stays above the midline.
Bearish Breakout: When price crosses below the lower band and stays below the midline.
Each trade is held until breakout invalidation, not a fixed TP/SL.
Trades are compounded, i.e., profits stack up realistically over time.
📈 Best Use Cases:
For traders who want to experiment with breakout strategies.
For visual learners who want to study past breakouts with performance metrics.
As a template to develop your own logic on top of Faytterro Bands.
⚠ Notes:
This is a strategy-like visual indicator, not an automated backtest.
It doesn't use strategy.* commands, so you can still use alerts and visuals.
You can tweak the logic to create your own backtest-ready strategy.
Unlike the original Faytterro Bands, this script does not repaint and is fully stable on closed candles.
Normalized Volume IndexIn the realm of technical analysis, volume is more than just a measure of market activity—it’s a window into trader psychology. Two classic indicators that harness this insight are the Positive Volume Index (PVI) and Negative Volume Index (NVI). Developed in the early 20th century by Paul L. Dysart and later refined by Norman G. Fosback in 1976, these tools aim to distinguish between the behavior of the so-called “smart money” and the broader market crowd.
- Positive Volume Index (PVI) tracks price changes only on days when trading volume increases. It assumes that rising volume reflects the actions of less-informed retail traders—those who follow the herd.
- Negative Volume Index (NVI), on the other hand, focuses on days when volume decreases, under the premise that institutional investors (the “smart money”) are more active when the market is quiet.
This dichotomy allows traders to interpret market sentiment through the lens of volume behavior. For example, a rising NVI during a price uptrend may suggest that institutional investors are quietly accumulating positions—often a bullish signal.
Traders use PVI and NVI to:
- Confirm trends: If NVI is above its moving average, it often signals a strong underlying trend supported by smart money.
- Spot reversals: Divergences between price and either index can hint at weakening momentum or upcoming reversals.
- Gauge participation: PVI rising faster than price may indicate overenthusiastic retail buying—potentially a contrarian signal.
These indicators are often paired with moving averages (e.g., 255-day EMA) to generate actionable signals. Fosback’s research suggested that when NVI is above its one-year EMA, there’s a high probability of a bull market.
While PVI and NVI are cumulative indices, normalizing them—for example, by rebasing to 100 or converting to percentage changes—offers several benefits:
- Comparability: Normalized indices can be compared across different assets or timeframes.
- Clarity: It becomes easier to visualize relative strength or weakness.
- Backtesting: Normalized values are more suitable for algorithmic strategies and statistical analysis.
Normalization also helps when combining PVI/NVI with other indicators in multi-factor models, ensuring no single metric dominates due to scale differences
In essence, PVI and NVI offer a nuanced view of market dynamics by separating the noise of volume surges from the quiet confidence of institutional moves. When normalized and interpreted correctly, they become powerful allies in a trader’s decision-making toolkit.
How to use this (Educational material):
For instance, on average, when the Negative Volume Index (NVI) remains above its midline, the market tends to trend positively, reflecting consistent institutional participation. However, when the NVI dips and stays below the midline, it often signals a negative trend, indicating that smart money is stepping away or reducing exposure.
Another telling scenario occurs when the Positive Volume Index (PVI) drops below the NVI. While this might coincide with a brief price dip, institutions often interpret this as an opportunity to buy the dip, quietly accumulating positions while retail participants exit in panic. The result? A market recovery driven by smart money.
Conversely, when the PVI consistently remains above the NVI, it may point to retail enthusiasm outpacing institutional support. This imbalance can flag a tired or overextended trend, where the smart money has already positioned itself defensively. When this pattern persists, there's a high likelihood that institutions will pull the plug, leading to a pronounced trend reversal.
MC Geopolitical Tension Events📌 Script Title: Geopolitical Tension Events
📖 Description:
This script highlights key geopolitical and military tension events from 1914 to 2024 that have historically impacted global markets.
It automatically plots vertical dashed lines and labels on the chart at the time of each major event. This allows traders and analysts to visually assess how markets have responded to global crises, wars, and significant political instability over time.
🧠 Use Cases:
Historical backtesting: Understand how market responded to past geopolitical shocks.
Contextual analysis: Add macro context to technical setups.
🗓️ List of Geopolitical Tension Events in the Script
Date Event Title Description
1914-07-28 WWI Begins Outbreak of World War I following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand.
1929-10-24 Wall Street Crash Black Thursday, the start of the 1929 stock market crash.
1939-09-01 WWII Begins Germany invades Poland, starting World War II.
1941-12-07 Pearl Harbor Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor; U.S. enters WWII.
1945-08-06 Hiroshima Bombing First atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima by the U.S.
1950-06-25 Korean War Begins North Korea invades South Korea.
1962-10-16 Cuban Missile Crisis 13-day standoff between the U.S. and USSR over missiles in Cuba.
1973-10-06 Yom Kippur War Egypt and Syria launch surprise attack on Israel.
1979-11-04 Iran Hostage Crisis U.S. Embassy in Tehran seized; 52 hostages taken.
1990-08-02 Gulf War Begins Iraq invades Kuwait, triggering U.S. intervention.
2001-09-11 9/11 Attacks Coordinated terrorist attacks on the U.S.
2003-03-20 Iraq War Begins U.S.-led invasion of Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein.
2008-09-15 Lehman Collapse Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers; peak of global financial crisis.
2014-03-01 Crimea Crisis Russia annexes Crimea from Ukraine.
2020-01-03 Soleimani Strike U.S. drone strike kills Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.
2022-02-24 Ukraine Invasion Russia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
2023-10-07 Hamas-Israel War Hamas launches attack on Israel, sparking war in Gaza.
2024-01-12 Red Sea Crisis Houthis attack ships in Red Sea, prompting Western naval response.
Smart Bar Counter with Alerts🚀 Smart Bar Counter with Alerts 🚀
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Overview
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Ever wanted to count a specific number of bars from a key point on your chart—such as after a Break of Structure (BOS), the start of a new trading session, or from any point of interest— without having to stare at the screen?
This "Smart Bar Counter" indicator was created to solve this exact problem. It's a simple yet powerful tool that allows you to define a custom "Start Point" and a "Target Bar Count." Once the target count is reached, it can trigger an Alert to notify you immediately.
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Key Features
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• Manual Start Point: Precisely select the date and time from which you want the count to begin, offering maximum flexibility in your analysis.
• Custom Bar Target: Define exactly how many bars you want to count, whether it's 50, 100, or 200 bars.
• On-Chart Display: A running count is displayed on each bar after the start time, allowing you to visually track the progress.
• Automatic Alerts: Set up alerts to be notified via TradingView's various channels (pop-up, mobile app, email) once the target count is reached.
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How to Use
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1. Add this indicator to your chart.
2. Go to the indicator's Settings (Gear Icon ⚙️).
- Select Start Time: Set the date and time you wish to begin counting.
- Number of Bars to Count: Input your target number.
3. Set up the Alert ( Very Important! ).
- Right-click on the chart > Select " Add alert ."
- In the " Condition " dropdown, select this indicator: Smart Bar Counter with Alerts .
- In the next dropdown, choose the available alert condition.
- Set " Options " to Once Per Bar Close .
- Choose your desired notification methods under " Alert Actions ."
- Click " Create ."
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Use Cases
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• Post-Event Analysis: Count bars after a key event like a Break of Structure (BOS) or Change of Character (CHoCH) to observe subsequent price action.
• Time-based Analysis: Use it to count bars after a market open for a specific session (e.g., London, New York).
• Strategy Backtesting: Useful for testing trading rules that are based on time or a specific number of bars.
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Final Words
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Hope you find this indicator useful for your analysis and trading strategies! Feel free to leave comments or suggestions below.
