BB_MDL_V1Simple indicator that is based on the average line of the bollinger bands and the exponential average of 200 periods.
The customizable variable is bollinger bands length, currently the default is 35, you can tweak it to your liking and see how trend identification changes.
My recommendation is to work in 5-minute time frames in values such as SOL, FTM or MASK (cryptos)
This simple strategy can be combined with many others to gain more insight and get better market entries and exits.
"Futures" için komut dosyalarını ara
BSM OPM 1973 w/ Continuous Dividend Yield [Loxx]Generalized Black-Scholes-Merton w/ Analytical Greeks is an adaptation of the Black-Scholes-Merton Option Pricing Model including Analytical Greeks and implied volatility calculations. The following information is an excerpt from Espen Gaarder Haug's book "Option Pricing Formulas". The options sensitivities (Greeks) are the partial derivatives of the Black-Scholes-Merton ( BSM ) formula. Analytical Greeks for our purposes here are broken down into various categories:
Delta Greeks: Delta, DDeltaDvol, Elasticity
Gamma Greeks: Gamma, GammaP, DGammaDSpot/speed, DGammaDvol/Zomma
Vega Greeks: Vega , DVegaDvol/Vomma, VegaP
Theta Greeks: Theta
Rate/Carry Greeks: Rho, Rho futures option, Carry Rho, Phi/Rho2
Probability Greeks: StrikeDelta, Risk Neutral Density
(See the code for more details)
Black-Scholes-Merton Option Pricing
The Black-Scholes-Merton model can be "generalized" by incorporating a cost-of-carry rate b. This model can be used to price European options on stocks, stocks paying a continuous dividend yield, options on futures, and currency options:
c = S * e^((b - r) * T) * N(d1) - X * e^(-r * T) * N(d2)
p = X * e^(-r * T) * N(-d2) - S * e^((b - r) * T) * N(-d1)
where
d1 = (log(S / X) + (b + v^2 / 2) * T) / (v * T^0.5)
d2 = d1 - v * T^0.5
b = r ... gives the Black and Scholes (1973) stock option model.
b = r — q ... gives the Merton (1973) stock option model with continuous dividend yield q. <== this is the one used for this indicator!
b = 0 ... gives the Black (1976) futures option model.
b = 0 and r = 0 ... gives the Asay (1982) margined futures option model.
b = r — rf ... gives the Garman and Kohlhagen (1983) currency option model.
Inputs
S = Stock price.
X = Strike price of option.
T = Time to expiration in years.
r = Risk-free rate
d = dividend yield
v = Volatility of the underlying asset price
cnd (x) = The cumulative normal distribution function
nd(x) = The standard normal density function
convertingToCCRate(r, cmp ) = Rate compounder
gImpliedVolatilityNR(string CallPutFlag, float S, float x, float T, float r, float b, float cm , float epsilon) = Implied volatility via Newton Raphson
gBlackScholesImpVolBisection(string CallPutFlag, float S, float x, float T, float r, float b, float cm ) = implied volatility via bisection
Implied Volatility: The Bisection Method
The Newton-Raphson method requires knowledge of the partial derivative of the option pricing formula with respect to volatility ( vega ) when searching for the implied volatility . For some options (exotic and American options in particular), vega is not known analytically. The bisection method is an even simpler method to estimate implied volatility when vega is unknown. The bisection method requires two initial volatility estimates (seed values):
1. A "low" estimate of the implied volatility , al, corresponding to an option value, CL
2. A "high" volatility estimate, aH, corresponding to an option value, CH
The option market price, Cm , lies between CL and cH . The bisection estimate is given as the linear interpolation between the two estimates:
v(i + 1) = v(L) + (c(m) - c(L)) * (v(H) - v(L)) / (c(H) - c(L))
Replace v(L) with v(i + 1) if c(v(i + 1)) < c(m), or else replace v(H) with v(i + 1) if c(v(i + 1)) > c(m) until |c(m) - c(v(i + 1))| <= E, at which point v(i + 1) is the implied volatility and E is the desired degree of accuracy.
Implied Volatility: Newton-Raphson Method
The Newton-Raphson method is an efficient way to find the implied volatility of an option contract. It is nothing more than a simple iteration technique for solving one-dimensional nonlinear equations (any introductory textbook in calculus will offer an intuitive explanation). The method seldom uses more than two to three iterations before it converges to the implied volatility . Let
v(i + 1) = v(i) + (c(v(i)) - c(m)) / (dc / dv (i))
until |c(m) - c(v(i + 1))| <= E at which point v(i + 1) is the implied volatility , E is the desired degree of accuracy, c(m) is the market price of the option, and dc/ dv (i) is the vega of the option evaluaated at v(i) (the sensitivity of the option value for a small change in volatility ).
Things to know
Only works on the daily timeframe and for the current source price.
You can adjust the text size to fit the screen
Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Binomial Tree Options Pricing Model [Loxx]Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Binomial Tree Options Pricing Model is an options pricing panel calculated using an N-iteration (limited to 300 in Pine Script due to matrices size limits) "discrete-time" (lattice based) method to approximate the closed-form Black–Scholes formula. Joshi (2008) outlined varying binomial options pricing model furnishes a numerical approach for the valuation of options. Significantly, the American analogue can be estimated using the binomial tree. This indicator is the complex calculation for Binomial option pricing. Most folks take a shortcut and only calculate 2 iterations. I've coded this to allow for up to 300 iterations. This can be used to price American Puts/Calls and European Puts/Calls. I'll be updating this indicator will be updated with additional features over time. If you would like to learn more about options, I suggest you check out the book textbook Options, Futures and other Derivative by John C Hull.
***This indicator only works on the daily timeframe!***
A quick graphic of what this all means:
In the graphic, "n" are the steps, in this case we can do up to 300, in production we'd need to do 5-15K. That's a lot of steps! You can see here how the binomial tree fans out. As I said previously, most folks only calculate 2 steps, here we are calculating up to 300.
Want to learn more about Simple Introduction to Cox, Ross Rubinstein (1979) ?
Watch this short series "Introduction to Basic Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) model."
Limitations of Black Scholes options pricing model
This is a widely used and well-known options pricing model, factors in current stock price, options strike price, time until expiration (denoted as a percent of a year), and risk-free interest rates. The Black-Scholes Model is quick in calculating any number of option prices. But the model cannot accurately calculate American options, since it only considers the price at an option's expiration date. American options are those that the owner may exercise at any time up to and including the expiration day.
What are Binomial Trees in options pricing?
A useful and very popular technique for pricing an option involves constructing a binomial tree. This is a diagram representing different possible paths that might be followed by the stock price over the life of an option. The underlying assumption is that the stock price follows a random walk. In each time step, it has a certain probability of moving up by a certain percentage amount and a certain probability of moving down by a certain percentage amount. In the limit, as the time step becomes smaller, this model is the same as the Black–Scholes–Merton model.
What is the Binomial options pricing model ?
This model uses a tree diagram with volatility factored in at each level to show all possible paths an option's price can take, then works backward to determine one price. The benefit of the Binomial Model is that you can revisit it at any point for the possibility of early exercise. Early exercise is executing the contract's actions at its strike price before the contract's expiration. Early exercise only happens in American-style options. However, the calculations involved in this model take a long time to determine, so this model isn't the best in rushed situations.
What is the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Model?
The Cox-Ross-Rubinstein binomial model can be used to price European and American options on stocks without dividends, stocks and stock indexes paying a continuous dividend yield, futures, and currency options. Option pricing is done by working backwards, starting at the terminal date. Here we know all the possible values of the underlying price. For each of these, we calculate the payoffs from the derivative, and find what the set of possible derivative prices is one period before. Given these, we can find the option one period before this again, and so on. Working ones way down to the root of the tree, the option price is found as the derivative price in the first node.
Inputs
Spot price: select from 33 different types of price inputs
Calculation Steps: how many iterations to be used in the Binomial model. In practice, this number would be anywhere from 5000 to 15000, for our purposes here, this is limited to 300
Strike Price: the strike price of the option you're wishing to model
% Implied Volatility: here you can manually enter implied volatility
Historical Volatility Period: the input period for historical volatility; historical volatility isn't used in the CRRBT process, this is to serve as a sort of benchmark for the implied volatility,
Historical Volatility Type: choose from various types of implied volatility, search my indicators for details on each of these
Option Base Currency: this is to calculate the risk-free rate, this is used if you wish to automatically calculate the risk-free rate instead of using the manual input. this uses the 10 year bold yield of the corresponding country
% Manual Risk-free Rate: here you can manually enter the risk-free rate
Use manual input for Risk-free Rate? : choose manual or automatic for risk-free rate
% Manual Yearly Dividend Yield: here you can manually enter the yearly dividend yield
Adjust for Dividends?: choose if you even want to use use dividends
Automatically Calculate Yearly Dividend Yield? choose if you want to use automatic vs manual dividend yield calculation
Time Now Type: choose how you want to calculate time right now, see the tool tip
Days in Year: choose how many days in the year, 365 for all days, 252 for trading days, etc
Hours Per Day: how many hours per day? 24, 8 working hours, or 6.5 trading hours
Expiry date settings: here you can specify the exact time the option expires
Take notes:
Futures don't risk free yields. If you are pricing options of futures, then the risk-free rate is zero.
Dividend yields are calculated using TradingView's internal dividend values
This indicator only works on the daily timeframe
Included
Option pricing panel
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Future PreviewFuture Preview
Calculate real-time future order profit with open price, leverage and commission fee. Simple and straight forward. If you need any additional feature, please leave a comment below. I am glad to help.
Usage:
When adding Future Preview to chart, it will ask order open time and open price on the chart by clicking with left mouse on the desired value. These value can be changed lately, as well as the leverage and commission fee. Default leverage is 10 and default commission fee is 0.06% (taker).
There will be two horizontal lines. The solid longer line is the open price line, it shows the order open price. The shorter line moving with real-time price is the current price line, it shows the current price. There will be preview data shows on top or below the price line. Open price line is red for short order and green for long order. The current price line is red when the order is losing and it is green when it profiting. The back ground color follows the color of current price line. Background color transparency and gain/loss color can be changed in options.
There will be one horizontal line on the left if the option of showing open time is on (default is on). It shows the time stamp when current order opened.
After adding Future Preview to chart, there is option to add Taking Profit(TP) or Stop Loss(SL) to the chart.
Font size can be changed in option
action zone - ATR stop reverse order strategy v0.1 by 9nckACTION ZONE-ATR MOD v0.1 DOCUMENTATION
Overview
This tradingview pine script strategy is mainly created to enrich my coding skill. It is a combination of “CDC-ACTIONZONE” and my personal studies of trading techniques in various sources e.g.book, course or blog. This strategy purposefully built to connect with my automatic trading bot. However, It will be very useful to aid your trading routine by diminishing mental distraction which possibly leads to bad trades.
How does it work?
This strategy will do a basic simple thing that most traders do by creating entry signals on both sides long/short and also set the stop loss. Furthermore, It will also reverse the order (from long to short and vice versa (if long/short conditions are met). Finally, it will recalculate the stop loss/take profit price in every complete bar to increase the chance of winning and limit our loss.
Entry rules(Long/Short)
If you have no open order, an order will be created when a fast EMA crosses(up(long)/down(short) the slow EMA(It’s as simple as that).
If you have an open order, the current order will be (sold if long, covered if short) and the opposite side order will be created.
Exit and Reverse rules(Long/Short)
If fast EMA cross (DOWN(long), UP(short)), the current order will be closed, THE OPPOSITE SIDE ORDER WILL ALSO BE CREATED.
Risk management
FLEX STOP PRICE : initial value will be set at the bar which order created. It is a fast ema (+/-) MIDDLE ATR value.
If MIDDLE ATR value rises, it will be our new stop price.
If MIDDLE ATR value falls, stop price unchanged
If Price OVERBOUGHT(long)/SOLD(short), LOW of that bar will be a new stop price.
Minimum position hold period
In order to eliminate risk of repeatedly open, close orders in sideway trends. Minimum hold period must be passed to start exit our position. However, It always respects stop loss prices. The value refers to the number of bars.
MUST READ!!!
This strategy uses only MARKET ORDER. If you trade with a bot, make sure you choose only enormous market cap tokens.
This strategy is bi-direction strategy. It will work best in the DERIVATIVE market.
It was initially designed to compete in the cryptocurrency market which has very high volume and volatility.
I only use this strategy in 1HR (acceptable change rate, optimum trade frequency)
How (should) we use it?
Choose crypto future pairs (recommend only top 10-15 market volume pairs in Binance, let’s say 1000M+ trade value)
Choose your time frame (1H is strongly recommended)
Setup your portfolio profile (Setting->Properties) such as Initial cap, order size, commission. DO NOT USE CAL ON EVERY TICK IT WILL CAUSE REPAINTING AND YOUR CAPITAL IS BLEEDING !!!
BACKTEST FIRST!! Back test is a combination of art, math and statis(and a bit of luck). You can apply to train and test methods or whatever you are familiar with. In my opinion, your test period should include UPTREND, SIDEWAY, DOWNTREND. Fine tune fast, slow ema first(my best ema length of 1H timeframe around 7-10, 17-22). Try to eliminate fault breakout trade and use other options only necessary. Hopefully we can use automatic optimization on Pine Script soon.
Don’t forget to turn off using a specific backtest date option to start your strategy.A
THIS IS NOT A PERFECT (OR EVEN PROFITABLE) STRATEGY. USE AT YOUR OWN RISK AND TRADE RESPONSIBLY. DYOR DUDE.
Advanced Volume ProfileTHIS SCRIPT CURRENTLY ONLY WORKS FOR ASSETS THAT TRADE 24/7 OR CBOE FUTURES HOURS!
This script plots volume relative to an asset's historical volume profile.
Usage:
As a companion to my "Unusual Time Frame Volume" (UTF Volume) script, this plots volume against the same historical volume profile used for UTF Volume.
The same high volume (relative to historical) threshold alert is available (yellow bar).
Likewise, if the volume exceeds the historical threshold, but is below the alert threshold, the bar color is orange.
At the top of the chart is an indicator which is green if a bar has higher volume than the previous bar.
You can also set a threshold for this such that if the volume of a bar exceeds the previous bar by a certain multiplier which will turn the indicator yellow.
For example, if the threshold is set to "1.5", then the indicator will be yellow (instead of green) on an increase in volume over the previous bar of 1.5x.
NOTES:
Again, this script currently only works for assets that trade 24/7 or CBOE Futures hours!
Make sure you set the "Asset Mode" and "Time Frame (minutes)" to values that match your asset and chart setting.
For example, if you are trading Futures on a 2m chart, set the Asset Mode to Futures and Time Frame to 2m.
If you are trading crypto on a 5m chart, set the Asset Mode to 24/7 and Time Frame to 5m.
If the settings are not set appropriately, the output will be incorrect/invalid.
If you choose a "Look-back (Days)" setting that is too far back given the time frame, the script will produce an error.
I suggest playing with settings from "1" (compares volume to the previous day's volume) to the highest number that doesn't break the script.
For example, at a 2m time frame, the maximum look-back will be "6" or "7" depending on which mode you are using.
Longer chart time settings allow larger look-back values.
I find that the default value ("6") does a decent job in general.
Please feel free to reuse or further develop this script.
I would greatly appreciate it if you would send me a message below if you find it useful.
Waindrops [Makit0]█ OVERALL
Plot waindrops (custom volume profiles) on user defined periods, for each period you get high and low, it slices each period in half to get independent vwap, volume profile and the volume traded per price at each half.
It works on intraday charts only, up to 720m (12H). It can plot balanced or unbalanced waindrops, and volume profiles up to 24H sessions.
As example you can setup unbalanced periods to get independent volume profiles for the overnight and cash sessions on the futures market, or 24H periods to get the full session volume profile of EURUSD
The purpose of this indicator is twofold:
1 — from a Chartist point of view, to have an indicator which displays the volume in a more readable way
2 — from a Pine Coder point of view, to have an example of use for two very powerful tools on Pine Script:
• the recently updated drawing limit to 500 (from 50)
• the recently ability to use drawings arrays (lines and labels)
If you are new to Pine Script and you are learning how to code, I hope you read all the code and comments on this indicator, all is designed for you,
the variables and functions names, the sometimes too big explanations, the overall structure of the code, all is intended as an example on how to code
in Pine Script a specific indicator from a very good specification in form of white paper
If you wanna learn Pine Script form scratch just start HERE
In case you have any kind of problem with Pine Script please use some of the awesome resources at our disposal: USRMAN , REFMAN , AWESOMENESS , MAGIC
█ FEATURES
Waindrops are a different way of seeing the volume and price plotted in a chart, its a volume profile indicator where you can see the volume of each price level
plotted as a vertical histogram for each half of a custom period. By default the period is 60 so it plots an independent volume profile each 30m
You can think of each waindrop as an user defined candlestick or bar with four key values:
• high of the period
• low of the period
• left vwap (volume weighted average price of the first half period)
• right vwap (volume weighted average price of the second half period)
The waindrop can have 3 different colors (configurable by the user):
• GREEN: when the right vwap is higher than the left vwap (bullish sentiment )
• RED: when the right vwap is lower than the left vwap (bearish sentiment )
• BLUE: when the right vwap is equal than the left vwap ( neutral sentiment )
KEY FEATURES
• Help menu
• Custom periods
• Central bars
• Left/Right VWAPs
• Custom central bars and vwaps: color and pixels
• Highly configurable volume histogram: execution window, ticks, pixels, color, update frequency and fine tuning the neutral meaning
• Volume labels with custom size and color
• Tracking price dot to be able to see the current price when you hide your default candlesticks or bars
█ SETTINGS
Click here or set any impar period to see the HELP INFO : show the HELP INFO, if it is activated the indicator will not plot
PERIOD SIZE (max 2880 min) : waindrop size in minutes, default 60, max 2880 to allow the first half of a 48H period as a full session volume profile
BARS : show the central and vwap bars, default true
Central bars : show the central bars, default true
VWAP bars : show the left and right vwap bars, default true
Bars pixels : width of the bars in pixels, default 2
Bars color mode : bars color behavior
• BARS : gets the color from the 'Bars color' option on the settings panel
• HISTOGRAM : gets the color from the Bearish/Bullish/Neutral Histogram color options from the settings panel
Bars color : color for the central and vwap bars, default white
HISTOGRAM show the volume histogram, default true
Execution window (x24H) : last 24H periods where the volume funcionality will be plotted, default 5
Ticks per bar (max 50) : width in ticks of each histogram bar, default 2
Updates per period : number of times the histogram will update
• ONE : update at the last bar of the period
• TWO : update at the last bar of each half period
• FOUR : slice the period in 4 quarters and updates at the last bar of each of them
• EACH BAR : updates at the close of each bar
Pixels per bar : width in pixels of each histogram bar, default 4
Neutral Treshold (ticks) : delta in ticks between left and right vwaps to identify a waindrop as neutral, default 0
Bearish Histogram color : histogram color when right vwap is lower than left vwap, default red
Bullish Histogram color : histogram color when right vwap is higher than left vwap, default green
Neutral Histogram color : histogram color when the delta between right and left vwaps is equal or lower than the Neutral treshold, default blue
VOLUME LABELS : show volume labels
Volume labels color : color for the volume labels, default white
Volume Labels size : text size for the volume labels, choose between AUTO, TINY, SMALL, NORMAL or LARGE, default TINY
TRACK PRICE : show a yellow ball tracking the last price, default true
█ LIMITS
This indicator only works on intraday charts (minutes only) up to 12H (720m), the lower chart timeframe you can use is 1m
This indicator needs price, time and volume to work, it will not work on an index (there is no volume), the execution will not be allowed
The histogram (volume profile) can be plotted on 24H sessions as limit but you can plot several 24H sessions
█ ERRORS AND PERFORMANCE
Depending on the choosed settings, the script performance will be highly affected and it will experience errors
Two of the more common errors it can throw are:
• Calculation takes too long to execute
• Loop takes too long
The indicator performance is highly related to the underlying volatility (tick wise), the script takes each candlestick or bar and for each tick in it stores the price and volume, if the ticker in your chart has thousands and thousands of ticks per bar the indicator will throw an error for sure, it can not calculate in time such amount of ticks.
What all of that means? Simply put, this will throw error on the BITCOIN pair BTCUSD (high volatility with tick size 0.01) because it has too many ticks per bar, but lucky you it will work just fine on the futures contract BTC1! (tick size 5) because it has a lot less ticks per bar
There are some options you can fine tune to boost the script performance, the more demanding option in terms of resources consumption is Updates per period , by default is maxed out so lowering this setting will improve the performance in a high way.
If you wanna know more about how to improve the script performance, read the HELP INFO accessible from the settings panel
█ HOW-TO SETUP
The basic parameters to adjust are Period size , Ticks per bar and Pixels per bar
• Period size is the main setting, defines the waindrop size, to get a better looking histogram set bigger period and smaller chart timeframe
• Ticks per bar is the tricky one, adjust it differently for each underlying (ticker) volatility wise, for some you will need a low value, for others a high one.
To get a more accurate histogram set it as lower as you can (min value is 1)
• Pixels per bar allows you to adjust the width of each histogram bar, with it you can adjust the blank space between them or allow overlaping
You must play with these three parameters until you obtain the desired histogram: smoother, sharper, etc...
These are some of the different kind of charts you can setup thru the settings:
• Balanced Waindrops (default): charts with waindrops where the two halfs are of same size.
This is the default chart, just select a period (30m, 60m, 120m, 240m, pick your poison), adjust the histogram ticks and pixels and watch
• Unbalanced Waindrops: chart with waindrops where the two halfs are of different sizes.
Do you trade futures and want to plot a waindrop with the first half for the overnight session and the second half for the cash session? you got it;
just adjust the period to 1860 for any CME ticker (like ES1! for example) adjust the histogram ticks and pixels and watch
• Full Session Volume Profile: chart with waindrops where only the first half plots.
Do you use Volume profile to analize the market? Lucky you, now you can trick this one to plot it, just try a period of 780 on SPY, 2760 on ES1!, or 2880 on EURUSD
remember to adjust the histogram ticks and pixels for each underlying
• Only Bars: charts with only central and vwap bars plotted, simply deactivate the histogram and volume labels
• Only Histogram: charts with only the histogram plotted (volume profile charts), simply deactivate the bars and volume labels
• Only Volume: charts with only the raw volume numbers plotted, simply deactivate the bars and histogram
If you wanna know more about custom full session periods for different asset classes, read the HELP INFO accessible from the settings panel
EXAMPLES
Full Session Volume Profile on MES 5m chart:
Full Session Unbalanced Waindrop on MNQ 2m chart (left side Overnight session, right side Cash Session):
The following examples will have the exact same charts but on four different tickers representing a futures contract, a forex pair, an etf and a stock.
We are doing this to be able to see the different parameters we need for plotting the same kind of chart on different assets
The chart composition is as follows:
• Left side: Volume Labels chart (period 10)
• Upper Right side: Waindrops (period 60)
• Lower Right side: Full Session Volume Profile
The first example will specify the main parameters, the rest of the charts will have only the differences
MES :
• Left: Period size: 10, Bars: uncheck, Histogram: uncheck, Execution window: 1, Ticks per bar: 2, Updates per period: EACH BAR,
Pixels per bar: 4, Volume labels: check, Track price: check
• Upper Right: Period size: 60, Bars: check, Bars color mode: HISTOGRAM, Histogram: check, Execution window: 2, Ticks per bar: 2,
Updates per period: EACH BAR, Pixels per bar: 4, Volume labels: uncheck, Track price: check
• Lower Right: Period size: 2760, Bars: uncheck, Histogram: check, Execution window: 1, Ticks per bar: 1, Updates per period: EACH BAR,
Pixels per bar: 2, Volume labels: uncheck, Track price: check
EURUSD :
• Upper Right: Ticks per bar: 10
• Lower Right: Period size: 2880, Ticks per bar: 1, Pixels per bar: 1
SPY :
• Left: Ticks per bar: 3
• Upper Right: Ticks per bar: 5, Pixels per bar: 3
• Lower Right: Period size: 780, Ticks per bar: 2, Pixels per bar: 2
AAPL :
• Left: Ticks per bar: 2
• Upper Right: Ticks per bar: 6, Pixels per bar: 3
• Lower Right: Period size: 780, Ticks per bar: 1, Pixels per bar: 2
█ THANKS TO
PineCoders for all they do, all the tools and help they provide and their involvement in making a better community
scarf for the idea of coding a waindrops like indicator, I did not know something like that existed at all
All the Pine Coders, Pine Pros and Pine Wizards, people who share their work and knowledge for the sake of it and helping others, I'm very grateful indeed
I'm learning at each step of the way from you all, thanks for this awesome community;
Opensource and shared knowledge: this is the way! (said with canned voice from inside my helmet :D)
█ NOTE
This description was formatted following THIS guidelines
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I sincerely hope you enjoy reading and using this work as much as I enjoyed developing it :D
GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY TRADING!
Dynamically Adjustable Moving AverageIntroduction
The Dynamically Adjustable Moving Average (AMA) is an adaptive moving average proposed by Jacinta Chan Phooi M’ng (1) originally provided to forecast Asian Tiger's futures markets. AMA adjust to market condition in order to avoid whipsaw trades as well as entering the trending market earlier. This moving average showed better results than classical methods (SMA20, EMA20, MAC, MACD, KAMA, OptSMA) using a classical crossover/under strategy in Asian Tiger's futures from 2014 to 2015.
Dynamically Adjustable Moving Average
AMA adjust to market condition using a non-exponential method, which in itself is not common, AMA is described as follow :
1/v * sum(close,v)
where v = σ/√σ
σ is the price standard deviation.
v is defined as the Efficacy Ratio (not be confounded with the Efficiency Ratio) . As you can see v determine the moving average period, you could resume the formula in pine with sma(close,v) but in pine its not possible to use the function sma with variables for length, however you can derive sma using cumulation.
sma ≈ d/length where d = c - c_length and c = cum(close)
So a moving average can be expressed as the difference of the cumulated price by the cumulated price length period back, this difference is then divided by length. The length period of the indicator should be short since rounded version of v tend to become less variables thus providing less adaptive results.
AMA in Forex Market
In 2014/2015 Major Forex currencies where more persistent than Asian Tiger's Futures (2) , also most traded currency pairs tend to have a strong long-term positive autocorrelation so AMA could have in theory provided good results if we only focus on the long term dependency. AMA has been tested with ASEAN-5 Currencies (3) and still showed good results, however forex is still a tricky market, also there is zero proof that switching to a long term moving average during ranging market avoid whipsaw trades (if you have a paper who prove it please pm me) .
Conclusion
An interesting indicator, however the idea behind it is far from being optimal, so far most adaptive methods tend to focus more in adapting themselves to market complexity than volatility. An interesting approach would have been to determine the validity of a signal by checking the efficacy ratio at time t . Backtesting could be a good way to see if the indicator is still performing well.
References
(1) J.C.P. M’ng, Dynamically adjustable moving average (AMA’) technical
analysis indicator to forecast Asian Tigers’ futures markets, Physica A (2018),
doi.org
(2) www.researchgate.net
(3) www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
HTF Pivots SignalsIntroduction :
HPS (HTF Pivot Signals) provides traders with a systematic approach to Higher Timeframe structure analysis and signal confirmation. Designed for traders seeking to identify confirmed structure changes, this indicator detects HTF pivot interactions and generates entry signals when price confirms beyond chart timeframe pivot levels. The indicator helps analysts identify key structure breaks, momentum shifts, and high-probability entry points based on confirmed pivot interactions.
Description :
HPS is rooted in the principle that Higher Timeframe structure changes provide context for lower timeframe price action. When an HTF pivot is interacted with (mitigated), it signals a potential opportunity for a mean reversal. The indicator then waits for confirmation on the chart timeframe before generating a signal, ensuring only confirmed setups are highlighted.
Main indicator screenshot showing HTF pivots and confirmation signals
The system operates by detecting pivot highs and lows on a higher timeframe, tracking when these pivots are interacted with, and confirming signals when price closes beyond chart timeframe pivot levels. This two-step process—interaction followed by confirmation—filters out false signals and provides only actionable setups.
HPS automatically calculates the optimal higher timeframe pairing (typically 15-16x the chart timeframe) or allows manual selection. The indicator remains stable and non-repainting, offering traders reliable, unchanged levels within the given time period. Pivot cleanup is managed by mitigation order rather than age, ensuring the most recent interactions remain visible while older ones are removed systematically.
Key Features:
Automatic HTF Selection: The indicator automatically calculates the optimal higher timeframe pairing based on your chart timeframe, typically using 15-16x multiples (e.g., 5m → 1h, 15m → 4h, 1h → 1D). For a more dynamic experience, the Automatic feature autonomously adjusts the higher timeframe pairing based on the current chart timeframe, ensuring accurate alignment with structure analysis. Manual override is available for custom timeframe selection.
Confirmed Pivot Detection: HPS only displays confirmed HTF pivots that have been interacted with. Unlike basic pivot indicators that show all pivots, HPS requires pivot interaction before displaying, eliminating noise and focusing on actionable structure changes. Pivots are marked with PH (Pivot High) and PL (Pivot Low) labels when enabled.
Signal Confirmation System: When an HTF pivot is interacted with, a pending signal is created signaling a potential mean reversal opportunity. The signal confirms when price closes beyond the chart timeframe pivot level—pivot low for bearish signals, pivot high for bullish signals. Confirmed signals display with OB+ (bullish) or OB- (bearish) labels and extending confirmation lines that mark the entry level.
Mitigation-Based Cleanup: Pivot cleanup is managed by mitigation order rather than age. The system maintains the latest mitigated pivots while removing older ones based on interaction time. This ensures recent interactions remain visible while preventing chart clutter. The maximum number of mitigated pivots displayed is configurable based on the max pivots setting.
Customizable Display: Full control over visual elements including pivot highs/lows visibility, pivot labels (PH/PL), confirmation lines, colors, and line width. Confirmation line labels (OB+/OB-) always display regardless of label toggle settings, ensuring signal visibility. Adjust the maximum number of pivots displayed to match your charting style and analysis needs.
Stop Level Calculation: Automatically calculates stop levels based on the maximum price (for bearish signals) or minimum price (for bullish signals) from signal creation to confirmation. These levels represent the risk point for each confirmed signal, providing clear risk management reference points.
Stop level calculation visualization
Multi-Timeframe Compatibility: Works across all TradingView timeframes and market types including Forex, Crypto, Stocks, and Futures. The automatic HTF selection adapts to any chart timeframe, providing consistent structure analysis regardless of the trading instrument or timeframe selected.
Multi-timeframe compatibility example
Usage Guidance :
Add HPS (HTF Pivot Signals) to your TradingView chart.
Select your preferred HTF pairing (Automatic or Manual) and adjust display settings to match your visual preferences.
Monitor for HTF pivot interactions—when price mitigates an HTF pivot, a pending signal is created signaling a potential mean reversal opportunity. Wait for confirmation when price closes beyond the chart timeframe pivot level, indicated by OB+ or OB- labels.
Use the confirmation lines and stop levels to identify entry points and manage risk. Combine with your existing analysis methods to enhance structure-based trading decisions.
Step-by-step usage guide
Terms and Conditions
Our charting tools are products provided for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Our charting tools are not designed to predict market movements or provide specific recommendations. Users should be aware that past performance is not indicative of future results and should not be relied upon for making financial decisions. By using our charting tools, the purchaser agrees that the seller and the creator are not responsible for any decisions made based on the information provided by these charting tools. The purchaser assumes full responsibility and liability for any actions taken and the consequences thereof, including any loss of money or investments that may occur as a result of using these products. Hence, by purchasing these charting tools, the customer accepts and acknowledges that the seller and the creator are not liable nor responsible for any unwanted outcome that arises from the development, the sale, or the use of these products. Finally, the purchaser indemnifies the seller from any and all liability. If the purchaser was invited through the Friends and Family Program, they acknowledge that the provided discount code only applies to the first initial purchase. The purchaser is therefore responsible for cancelling – or requesting to cancel – their subscription in the event that they do not wish to continue using the product at full retail price. If the purchaser no longer wishes to use the products, they must unsubscribe from the membership service, if applicable. We hold no reimbursement, refund, or chargeback policy. Once these Terms and Conditions are accepted by the Customer, before purchase, no reimbursements, refunds or chargebacks will be provided under any circumstances.
By continuing to use these charting tools, the user acknowledges and agrees to the Terms and Conditions outlined in this legal disclaimer.
Master Strategy: BTC W1 Mean Reversion [Institutional SOP]Overview This is an institutional-grade Mean Reversion and Range Rotation strategy designed specifically for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Perpetual Futures. It operates on the philosophy that liquidity resides at the extremes of the previous week's range (Previous Week High/Low). The strategy looks for false breakouts (Sweeps) followed by a confirmed return to the range (Reclaim), targeting the weekly equilibrium (EQ).
Core Logic: The Deviation Play Unlike standard breakout strategies, this indicator hunts for trapped liquidity.
Weekly Levels (Fixed): It calculates PWH (Previous Week High) and PWL (Previous Week Low) based on confirmed, closed weekly data. These levels act as the "Box" for the current week.
The Sweep: We wait for price to pierce the PWH or PWL (taking liquidity/stops). The script uses a dynamic ATR-based threshold to filter out noise (micro-pokes).
The Reclaim (4H Close): A signal is generated ONLY if a 4H candle closes back inside the weekly range shortly after the sweep. This confirms rejection of higher/lower prices.
The Entry: The script suggests a Limit Order at the retested level (PWH/PWL) to maximize R:R.
Institutional Quality Filters ("Kill Switches") To prevent trading in unfavorable conditions, the script includes strict SOP (Standard Operating Procedure) filters:
Trend Filter (ADX): Blocks mean reversion signals if the daily trend is too strong (ADX > 25).
Expansion Filter: Blocks signals if price accepted levels outside the range for too long (prevents fighting a true breakout).
Weekly Range Filter: Filters out weeks that are statistically too tight (chop) or too wide (expansion).
Time Filter: A reclaim must happen within a set number of 4H bars after the sweep (default: 3).
Key Features
Zero Repainting: Logic is based strictly on closed candles ( , , ).
State Machine Logic: Uses internal memory to track sweeps regardless of chart timeframe glitches.
Operational Dashboard: Displays current status, countdown to next decision candle (4H close), and exact parameters for the last valid signal (Entry, SL, TP).
Unified Alerting: A single "Any function call" alert handles both Long and Short scenarios dynamically.
Clean Visuals: Levels are plotted with line breaks to avoid visual clutter between weeks.
How to Use
Timeframe: Set your chart to 4H. This is crucial as the logic relies on 4H closes.
Signals: Wait for the "4H RECLAIM" label.
Execution: Place a Limit Order at the suggested Level (PWH/PWL).
Stop Loss: Use the calculated SL provided by the indicator (Swing extreme + ATR buffer).
Target: TP1 is always the EQ (Equilibrium/Mid-range).
Long-term KST (Know Sure Thing)Description
Long-term Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator, specifically adapted for non-24h markets such as stocks, indices, ETFs and futures.
This version correctly scales the weekly ROC periods based on the actual trading week length and daily session duration of the instrument — making it accurate across different asset classes (European indices, US equities, crypto, etc.).
Key features:
• Fully customizable trading week (5 days for most stock markets, 7 days for crypto/24h markets)
• Customizable daily session length (8.5h for FTSE MIB/DAX, 6.5h for US equities, 24h for crypto/forex)
• Automatically adjusts bar count per week on any chart timeframe (including Weekly)
• Classic Martin Pring KST parameters (10/13/15/20 ROC weeks, 10/13/15/20 SMA weeks, 1-2-3-4 weighting)
• Includes signal line (SMA of KST) and visual fill between KST and signal (green/red)
What is the Long-term KST used for?
The KST (Know Sure Thing) is a momentum oscillator created by Martin Pring to detect major trend changes, confirm the primary trend direction, and identify significant reversals in medium- to long-term cycles (weeks to months).
Main practical uses:
• Major trend reversals: KST crossing above/below signal line
• Primary trend confirmation: KST above/below zero line
• Classic divergences: Price vs KST divergences often precede important tops/bottoms
• Cycle identification: Helps spot the end of multi-month corrections or the start of new bull/bear phases
• Trend-following filter: Stay long when KST > 0 and rising, stay short when KST < 0 and falling
It is especially powerful on major indices (FTSE MIB, DAX, SPX, NDX, RUT, CAC40, Nikkei…) because it captures institutional money flow with fewer, higher-quality signals compared to faster oscillators.
Best used on:
• Daily, 4H, Weekly charts
• European indices (FTSE MIB, DAX, IBEX…)
• US indices/ETFs (SPX, NDX, RUT…)
• Crypto pairs (set week_length=7, session_duration=24h)
Enjoy trading the big-picture momentum!
Williams %RDescription
This is a modified version of the classic Williams %R oscillator, adapted for markets with defined trading sessions (e.g., FTSEMIB, DAX, US stocks, etc.). It adjusts the lookback period based on the actual trading session length, making it more accurate on intraday timeframes.
Key Features
Session Adjustment:
Automatically scales the period to trading days (default: 8.5 hours for FTSEMIB, DAX, CAC; customizable for any market).
Formula (classic Williams %R):
%R = 100 × (Close - Highest High) / (Highest High - Lowest Low)
over a user-defined period (default 14 days).
Standard Levels:
-20 (overbought)
-50 (middle line)
-80 (oversold)
Visual Enhancements:
- Customizable colors for the line, levels, and background fill
- Shaded overbought/oversold zone
How to Use:
Overbought (above -20):
Potential sell signal or reversal (especially after a prolonged uptrend).
Oversold (below -80):
Potential buy signal or reversal (especially after a downtrend).
Divergences:
Look for bullish/bearish divergences between price and %R for early reversal warnings.
Best Markets:
Indices (FTSEMIB, DAX, SPX), stocks, futures. For 24/7 markets (crypto), set session duration to 24 hours.
Timeframes:
Works on intraday (15m, 1h, etc.) and daily charts.
Customization Tips:
- Adjust the period (shorter = more sensitive, longer = smoother).
- Change session duration for different markets.
- Customize colors to match your chart theme.
Note: Williams %R is a momentum oscillator and should be used in combination with other tools (trendlines, support/resistance, volume). Always practice proper risk management.
Daily 9 SMA S/R with Std DevThis indicator plots the Daily 9 Simple Moving Average as dynamic support/resistance on any timeframe, with standard deviation bands to measure trend strength and identify overextended price action.
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HOW IT WORKS
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The Daily 9 SMA acts as a key level institutions watch. When price is above it, bullish bias. Below it, bearish bias. Simple.
Standard deviation bands show you:
- 1 StdDev = Strong trend territory
- 2 StdDev = Extreme/overextended - potential reversal zone
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FEATURES
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- Daily 9 SMA plotted on any timeframe
- 1 & 2 Standard Deviation bands
- Trend strength scoring (-3 to +3)
- Info table showing current values and trend status
- Visual signals for MA reclaims, losses, and trend entries
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ALERTS
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- Price Reclaims Daily 9 SMA
- Price Loses Daily 9 SMA
- Enter Strong Bullish Zone (>1 StdDev)
- Enter Strong Bearish Zone (<1 StdDev)
- Extreme Extension Alerts (2 StdDev)
- Bounce/Rejection at MA
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HOW TO USE
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1. Use on lower timeframes (5m, 15m, 1H) to see Daily levels
2. Look for bounces off the Daily 9 SMA for entries
3. Avoid longs when price loses the MA, avoid shorts when price reclaims
4. Use StdDev bands to gauge when price is overextended
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SETTINGS
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- MA Length - Default 9
- StdDev Multipliers - Default 1.0 and 2.0
- StdDev Lookback - Default 20
- Customizable colors
Works on any market - Forex, Crypto, Stocks, Futures.
Interest Rate ExpectationsThis indicator shows how much rate cuts or hikes are currently priced into SOFR futures. You choose two SOFR contracts and the script converts each contract price into basis points relative to the current effective fed funds rate. This gives you a very clear view of how policy expectations shift over time.
You can switch between using a fixed EFFR value or pulling the live EFFR ticker. Colours for each line and label are fully adjustable. The script also includes an optional grid for the plus or minus 25, 50 and 75 basis point levels so the chart does not zoom out too far.
Labels appear at the end of both lines and display how many basis points of cuts or hikes are priced for each contract. A small reference box is added on the chart to remind you what each quarterly code represents. For example H is March and Z is December.
The background shading highlights changes in the timing of cuts. Green shading means the market is pushing cuts further out in time. Red shading means cuts are being pulled closer. This gives a simple and visual way to track how the curve reprices near term versus long term policy expectations.
This tool is useful for anyone tracking fed path repricing, front end volatility, macro catalysts or cross asset rate sensitivity.
ATR Trailing Stop + HL2 VWAP + EMAsmain atr/ema script
use this to guage immediate trend on the 2m
use this to guage long term trend on thr 6h and one day charts.
Typicallly most accurate with futures.
Dance With Wolves VN PublicDance With Wolves VN
Indicator kết hợp EMA 9/21 để vào lệnh nhanh, thêm EMA 20/50/200 để xem trend lớn.
Tự tạo Entry, SL, TP1, TP2, TP3 theo ATR.
Vẽ luôn 3 mức kháng cự (R1–R3) và 3 mức hỗ trợ (S1–S3) từ pivot gần nhất.
Dùng tốt cho khung 1m–15m với crypto, stock, futures.
Dance With Wolves VN — Smart EMA Strategy
This indicator combines EMA 20/50/200 trend tracking, automatic Buy/Sell signals, Take Profit & Stop Loss levels, and Support/Resistance zones.
It helps traders identify clean entries, manage risk with visual TP/SL targets, and follow market trends with clarity.
Created by Dance With Wolves VN — a community project for traders who value discipline, teamwork, and precision.
KD-NewAutoTrade for Future Trading - Heikin Ashi candles The KD-NewAutoTrade strategy is a dynamic trend-following indicator designed for scalping and swing trading across crypto, forex, and index futures. It combines the precision of EMA crossovers, RSI momentum, and ADX trend strength to deliver clear Buy/Sell signals with high reliability.
🔹 Core Logic
EMA Fast & Slow Crossover – Identifies short-term and long-term trend shifts.
RSI Confirmation – Filters out false signals by requiring RSI to cross custom Buy/Sell thresholds.
ADX Filter – Ensures trades only trigger when market trend strength exceeds your chosen ADX minimum.
🔹 Key Features
Visual Buy/Sell triangles directly on the chart.
Customizable inputs for EMA, RSI, and ADX lengths.
Works efficiently on all timeframes and all markets (Crypto, Indices, Stocks, Commodities).
Optional background highlights for active trade zones.
Alert conditions for both BUY and SELL setups – ready to use in automated strategies or alert bots.
🔹 Recommended Usage
Use Heikin Ashi candles
Works best on 1M - 5M timeframes.
Combine with volume or higher-timeframe trend confirmation for stronger signals.
NQ YM Correlogram Meter TypeOverview
This indicator provides a real-time, visual "meter" of the correlation between the Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and the Dow Jones (YM) futures. It is designed as a clean, non-intrusive dashboard panel that displays only the current correlation value, making it an ideal companion for pairs traders who need to see the live relationship at a glance.
Unlike a traditional oscillator that plots historical data, this tool focuses exclusively on the "right now" to aid in immediate trade decisions.
Key Features
Real-Time Correlation Meter: A single vertical bar displays the current correlation, visually mapping the -1.0 to +1.0 range.
Clear Visual Cues: The bar's color gradient (from red for negative correlation to green for positive correlation) and fill level provide an instant understanding of the market relationship.
Precise Value Display: The exact numerical correlation (e.g., 0.85 or -0.50) is shown clearly at the bottom of the meter.
Contextual Y-Axis: Static labels (+1.0, +0.5, 0.0, -0.5) provide quick reference points for the meter's reading.
Dashboard Panel: Renders cleanly as an overlay table on the right side of your chart, saving screen real estate.
How to Use
This indicator is best used as a confirmation tool alongside a primary pairs trading strategy or a historical correlation oscillator.
High Green Bar (near +1.0): Indicates a strong positive correlation. NQ and YM are moving in sync.
Bar near 0.0: Indicates little to no linear relationship.
Low Red Bar (near -1.0): Indicates a strong negative (inverse) correlation. NQ and YM are moving in opposite directions.
For a pairs trader, this meter provides an instant check to confirm if the two assets are in their expected state of correlation at the moment of execution.
Settings & Customization
Correlation Period: Set the lookback length for the correlation calculation.
Symbols: Fully customizable, though it defaults to YM1! and NQ1!.
Panel Appearance: Adjust the Table Size (Small/Large) and Chart Theme (Light/Dark).
Text Size: Independently control the font size for the numerical Value Text and the Y-Axis Labels to perfectly fit your display.
NQ YM Correlation 1 min dataOverview
This indicator plots the correlation between Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and Dow Jones (YM) futures. It is specifically designed to act as an "Engine RPM" gauge for pairs traders who trade divergence or spread breakouts—not mean reversion.
To ensure consistent readings, this indicator always calculates using a 1-minute timeframe data, regardless of the chart timeframe you are currently viewing.
The core idea is:
High Correlation (Blue Zone): "Low RPM" or "Engine Idle." NQ and YM are moving together. The spread is flat. This is a no-trade zone.
Low Correlation (Red Zone): "High RPM" or "Engine Hot." NQ and YM are diverging. The spread is moving. This is the primary trade zone.
Ehlers Phasor Analysis (PHASOR)# PHASOR: Phasor Analysis (Ehlers)
## Overview and Purpose
The Phasor Analysis indicator, developed by John Ehlers, represents an advanced cycle analysis tool that identifies the phase of the dominant cycle component in a time series through complex signal processing techniques. This sophisticated indicator uses correlation-based methods to determine the real and imaginary components of the signal, converting them to a continuous phase angle that reveals market cycle progression. Unlike traditional oscillators, the Phasor provides unwrapped phase measurements that accumulate continuously, offering unique insights into market timing and cycle behavior.
## Core Concepts
* **Complex Signal Analysis** — Uses real and imaginary components to determine cycle phase
* **Correlation-Based Detection** — Employs Ehlers' correlation method for robust phase estimation
* **Unwrapped Phase Tracking** — Provides continuous phase accumulation without discontinuities
* **Anti-Regression Logic** — Prevents phase angle from moving backward under specific conditions
Market Applications:
* **Cycle Timing** — Precise identification of cycle peaks and troughs
* **Market Regime Analysis** — Distinguishes between trending and cycling market conditions
* **Turning Point Detection** — Advanced warning system for potential market reversals
## Common Settings and Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Function | When to Adjust |
|-----------|---------|----------|----------------|
| Period | 28 | Fixed cycle period for correlation analysis | Match to expected dominant cycle length |
| Source | Close | Price series for phase calculation | Use typical price or other smoothed series |
| Show Derived Period | false | Display calculated period from phase rate | Enable for adaptive period analysis |
| Show Trend State | false | Display trend/cycle state variable | Enable for regime identification |
## Calculation and Mathematical Foundation
**Technical Formula:**
**Stage 1: Correlation Analysis**
For period $n$ and source $x_t$:
Real component correlation with cosine wave:
$$R = \frac{n \sum x_t \cos\left(\frac{2\pi t}{n}\right) - \sum x_t \sum \cos\left(\frac{2\pi t}{n}\right)}{\sqrt{D_{cos}}}$$
Imaginary component correlation with negative sine wave:
$$I = \frac{n \sum x_t \left(-\sin\left(\frac{2\pi t}{n}\right)\right) - \sum x_t \sum \left(-\sin\left(\frac{2\pi t}{n}\right)\right)}{\sqrt{D_{sin}}}$$
where $D_{cos}$ and $D_{sin}$ are normalization denominators.
**Stage 2: Phase Angle Conversion**
$$\theta_{raw} = \begin{cases}
90° - \arctan\left(\frac{I}{R}\right) \cdot \frac{180°}{\pi} & \text{if } R \neq 0 \\
0° & \text{if } R = 0, I > 0 \\
180° & \text{if } R = 0, I \leq 0
\end{cases}$$
**Stage 3: Phase Unwrapping**
$$\theta_{unwrapped}(t) = \theta_{unwrapped}(t-1) + \Delta\theta$$
where $\Delta\theta$ is the normalized phase difference.
**Stage 4: Ehlers' Anti-Regression Condition**
$$\theta_{final}(t) = \begin{cases}
\theta_{final}(t-1) & \text{if regression conditions met} \\
\theta_{unwrapped}(t) & \text{otherwise}
\end{cases}$$
**Derived Calculations:**
Derived Period: $P_{derived} = \frac{360°}{\Delta\theta_{final}}$ (clamped to )
Trend State:
$$S_{trend} = \begin{cases}
1 & \text{if } \Delta\theta \leq 6° \text{ and } |\theta| \geq 90° \\
-1 & \text{if } \Delta\theta \leq 6° \text{ and } |\theta| < 90° \\
0 & \text{if } \Delta\theta > 6°
\end{cases}$$
> 🔍 **Technical Note:** The correlation-based approach provides robust phase estimation even in noisy market conditions, while the unwrapping mechanism ensures continuous phase tracking across cycle boundaries.
## Interpretation Details
* **Phasor Angle (Primary Output):**
- **+90°**: Potential cycle peak region
- **0°**: Mid-cycle ascending phase
- **-90°**: Potential cycle trough region
- **±180°**: Mid-cycle descending phase
* **Phase Progression:**
- Continuous upward movement → Normal cycle progression
- Phase stalling → Potential cycle extension or trend development
- Rapid phase changes → Cycle compression or volatility spike
* **Derived Period Analysis:**
- Period < 10 → High-frequency cycle dominance
- Period 15-40 → Typical swing trading cycles
- Period > 50 → Trending market conditions
* **Trend State Variable:**
- **+1**: Long trend conditions (slow phase change in extreme zones)
- **-1**: Short trend or consolidation (slow phase change in neutral zones)
- **0**: Active cycling (normal phase change rate)
## Applications
* **Cycle-Based Trading:**
- Enter long positions near -90° crossings (cycle troughs)
- Enter short positions near +90° crossings (cycle peaks)
- Exit positions during mid-cycle phases (0°, ±180°)
* **Market Timing:**
- Use phase acceleration for early trend detection
- Monitor derived period for cycle length changes
- Combine with trend state for regime-appropriate strategies
* **Risk Management:**
- Adjust position sizes based on cycle clarity (derived period stability)
- Implement different risk parameters for trending vs. cycling regimes
- Use phase velocity for stop-loss placement timing
## Limitations and Considerations
* **Parameter Sensitivity:**
- Fixed period assumption may not match actual market cycles
- Requires cycle period optimization for different markets and timeframes
- Performance degrades when multiple cycles interfere
* **Computational Complexity:**
- Correlation calculations over full period windows
- Multiple mathematical transformations increase processing requirements
- Real-time implementation requires efficient algorithms
* **Market Conditions:**
- Most effective in markets with clear cyclical behavior
- May provide false signals during strong trending periods
- Requires sufficient historical data for correlation analysis
Complementary Indicators:
* MESA Adaptive Moving Average (cycle-based smoothing)
* Dominant Cycle Period indicators
* Detrended Price Oscillator (cycle identification)
## References
1. Ehlers, J.F. "Cycle Analytics for Traders." Wiley, 2013.
2. Ehlers, J.F. "Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures." Wiley, 2004.
Stock Fundamental Overlay [DarwinDarma]Stock Fundamental Overlay
Stock Fundamental Overlay is a comprehensive valuation indicator that displays multiple fundamental analysis metrics directly on your price chart.
Key Features:
• Graham Number - Benjamin Graham's intrinsic value formula
• Book Value Per Share (BVPS) - Net asset value baseline
• DCF Valuation - Discounted Cash Flow analysis (non-financial stocks)
• DDM Valuation - Dividend Discount Model (dividend-paying stocks)
• Visual Value Zones - Color-coded undervalued/overvalued regions
• Real-time Fundamental Table - Live metrics and valuations
• Price vs Graham Comparison - Quick valuation assessment
• Built-in Alerts - Notification when price crosses key levels
Valuation Models:
• Graham Number: √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
• DCF: Customizable discount rate, growth rate, and forecast period
• DDM: Gordon Growth Model for dividend analysis
Visual Elements:
• Plot lines for BVPS, Graham Number, and DCF values
• Shaded value zone between BVPS and Graham Number
• Background coloring: Deep value (below BVPS), Undervalued (below Graham), Overvalued (>1.5x Graham)
• Dynamic table showing all metrics with theme-aware text colors
Special Handling:
• Financial sector detection - DCF disabled for banks/financials where FCF metrics are distorted
• Automatic light/dark theme adaptation
• TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) data for current metrics
How to Use - Value Investing Approach:
1. Identifying Undervalued Stocks:
• Look for price trading BELOW the Graham Number (green zone) - potential value opportunity
• Deep value: Price below BVPS indicates trading below net asset value
• Check "Price vs Graham" % in table - negative values suggest undervaluation
• Compare multiple models: When price is below Graham, DCF, and BVPS simultaneously, stronger buy signal
2. Margin of Safety:
• Benjamin Graham recommended buying at 2/3 of intrinsic value (33% margin of safety)
• Monitor the gap between current price and valuation lines
• Larger gaps = greater margin of safety = lower downside risk
• Use the shaded "Value Zone" as your target buying range
3. Setting Alerts:
• "Price Below Graham Number" - Notifies when stock enters value territory
• "Price Below Book Value" - Extreme value alert for deep value hunters
• "Price Below DCF Value" - Cash flow-based value signal
• Set alerts on watchlist stocks to catch value opportunities
4. Customizing for Your Strategy:
• Conservative investors: Use lower growth rates (3-4%) and higher discount rates (12-15%)
• Growth-value investors: Adjust growth rate (6-8%) for quality compounders
• Dividend investors: Focus on DDM value and Div/Share metrics
• Adjust forecast years based on business predictability (stable = 10 years, cyclical = 5 years)
5. Red Flags to Avoid:
• Negative EPS or FCF (red values in table) - proceed with caution
• Financial sector stocks - Use DDM and Graham, ignore DCF
• Price far above Graham (>1.5x) with red background = overvalued territory
• No fundamental data = "N/A" in table - stock may lack reporting or be too small
• Stock persistently below BVPS for extended periods - potential value trap or business in distress
• Price significantly above ALL models (BVPS, Graham, DCF) - sentiment-driven, lacks intrinsic value foundation (fragile)
⚠️ Important Value Investing Warnings:
• Value Trap Alert: A stock staying below BVPS for months/years may signal fundamental deterioration, asset impairments, or dying industry - not just "cheap." Investigate WHY it's cheap before buying
• Sentiment Bubble Risk: When price trades far above BVPS, Graham Number, AND DCF simultaneously, the stock has no intrinsic value basis. Examples: commodity stocks during boom cycles (gold miners in gold rallies), meme stocks, hype-driven sectors. These are highly fragile and vulnerable to mean reversion
• Cyclical Trap: Commodity/cyclical stocks can appear "cheap" at peak earnings (low P/E, high FCF) but are actually expensive. Normalize earnings across the cycle before valuing
• Quality Matters: Some excellent businesses (asset-light, high ROIC) naturally trade above book value. Don't avoid quality - adjust expectations for business model
6. Monitoring Positions:
• Watch for price approaching or exceeding Graham Number - consider taking profits
• Track EPS and FCF trends quarter-to-quarter in the table
• If fundamentals deteriorate (falling BVPS, negative FCF), reassess thesis
• Use background colors for quick visual check: green = hold/buy, red = overvalued
Perfect for:
Value investors seeking multi-model fundamental analysis, long-term investors comparing intrinsic value to market price, dividend investors evaluating yield stocks, and fundamental traders looking for entry/exit signals.
Note: Only works with stocks that have financial data available. Not applicable to crypto, forex, or futures. This indicator provides analysis tools; always conduct thorough research and due diligence before investing.
Indian Gold Festival Dates HistoricalIndian Gold Festival Dates (1975-2025)
Marks 8 major Indian festivals associated with gold buying over 50 years of historical data. Essential for analyzing seasonal patterns and cultural demand cycles in gold markets.
Festivals Included:
Dhanteras (Gold) - Most auspicious gold buying day
Diwali (Orange) - Festival of Lights
Akshaya Tritiya (Green) - "Never-ending" prosperity
Dussehra (Red) - Victory and success
Makar Sankranti (Cyan) - Solar new year
Gudi Padwa (Magenta) - Hindu New Year (Maharashtra)
Ugadi (Purple) - Hindu New Year (South India)
Navratri (Yellow) - 9-day festival
Features:
✓ 408 exact historical dates (1975-2025)
✓ Color-coded vertical lines for easy identification
✓ Toggle individual festivals on/off
✓ Adjustable line width and labels
✓ Works on all timeframes (best on daily/weekly)
Perfect for traders analyzing gold seasonality, Indian market sentiment, and cultural demand patterns. Use on XAUUSD, GC1!, or Indian gold futures.
Name of tickerDescription:
This indicator displays the instrument’s ticker symbol and the current chart timeframe at the top center of the chart.
Features:
• Shows the ticker (e.g., BTCUSDT, AAPL, etc.).
• Displays the current timeframe (1m, 5m, 1H, 1D, etc.).
• Positioned at the top center of the chart for easy reference.
• Transparent background for minimal interference with price action.
• Lightweight and simple, no extra settings required.
Usage:
• Works with any instrument: stocks, crypto, futures.
• Useful for traders who want to always see the ticker and timeframe while analyzing the chart.
Settings:
• Text size can be adjusted in the script (text_size).
• Text and background colors can be customized (text_color, bgcolor).
