Nasan Hull-smoothed envelope The Nasan Hull-Smoothed Envelope indicator is a sophisticated overlay designed to track price movement within an adaptive "envelope." It dynamically adjusts to market volatility and trend strength, using a series of smoothing and volatility-correction techniques. Here's a detailed breakdown of its components, from the input settings to the calculated visual elements:
Inputs
look_back_length (500):
Defines the lookback period for calculating intraday volatility (IDV), smoothing it over time. A higher value means the indicator considers a longer historical range for volatility calculations.
sl (50):
Sets the smoothing length for the Hull Moving Average (HMA). The HMA smooths various lines, creating a balance between sensitivity and stability in trend signals.
mp (1.5):
Multiplier for IDV, scaling the volatility impact on the envelope. A higher multiplier widens the envelope to accommodate higher volatility, while a lower one tightens it.
p (0.625):
Weight factor that determines the balance between extremes (highest high and lowest low) and averages (sma of high and sma of low) in the high/low calculations. A higher p gives more weight to extremes, making the envelope more responsive to abrupt market changes.
Volatility Calculation (IDV)
The Intraday Volatility (IDV) metric represents the average volatility per bar as an exponentially smoothed ratio of the high-low range to the close price. This is calculated over the look_back_length period, providing a base volatility value which is then scaled by mp. The IDV enables the envelope to dynamically widen or narrow with market volatility, making it sensitive to current market conditions.
Composite High and Low Bands
The high and low bands define the upper and lower bounds of the envelope.
High Calculation
a_high:
Uses a multi-period approach to capture the highest highs over several intervals (5, 8, 13, 21, and 34 bars). Averaging these highs provides a more stable reference for the high end of the envelope, capturing both immediate and recent peak values.
b_high:
Computes the average of shorter simple moving averages (5, 8, and 13 bars) of the high prices, smoothing out fluctuations in the recent highs. This generates a balanced view of high price trends.
high_c:
Combines a_high and b_high using the weight p. This blend creates a composite high that balances between recent peaks and smoothed averages, making the upper envelope boundary adaptive to short-term price shifts.
Low Calculation
a_low and b_low:
Similar to the high calculation, these capture extreme lows and smooth low values over the same intervals. This approach creates a stable and adaptive lower bound for the envelope.
low_c:
Combines a_low and b_low using the weight p, resulting in a composite low that adjusts to price fluctuations while maintaining a stable trend line.
Volatility-Adjusted Bands
The final composite high (c_high) and composite low (c_low) bands are adjusted using IDV, which accounts for intraday volatility. When volatility is high, the bands expand; when it’s low, they contract, providing a visual representation of volatility-adjusted price bounds.
Basis Line
The basis line is a Hull Moving Average (HMA) of the average of c_high and c_low. The HMA is known for its smoothness and responsiveness, making the basis line a central trend indicator. The color of the basis line changes:
Green when the basis line is increasing.
Red when the basis line is decreasing.
This color-coded basis line serves as a quick visual reference for trend direction.
Short-Term Trend Strength Block
This component analyzes recent price action to assess short-term bullish and bearish momentum.
Conditions (green, red, green1, red1):
These are binary conditions that categorize price movements as bullish or bearish based on the close compared to the open and the close’s relationship with the exponential moving average (EMA). This separation helps capture different types of strength (above/below EMA) and different bullish or bearish patterns.
Composite Trend Strength Values:
Each of the bullish and bearish counts (above and below the EMA) is normalized, resulting in the following values:
green_EMAup_a and red_EMAup_a for bullish and bearish strength above the EMA.
green_EMAdown_a and red_EMAdown_a for bullish and bearish strength below the EMA.
Trend Strength (t_s):
This calculated metric combines the normalized trend strengths with extra weight to conditions above the EMA, giving more relevance to trends that have momentum behind them.
Enhanced Trend Strength
avg_movement:
Calculates the average absolute price movement over the short_term_length, providing a measurement of recent price activity that scales with volatility.
enhanced_t_s:
Multiplies t_s by avg_movement, creating an enhanced trend strength value that reflects both directional strength and the magnitude of recent price movement.
min and max:
Minimum and maximum percentile thresholds, respectively, based on enhanced_t_s for controlling the color gradient in the fill area.
Fill Area
The fill area between plot_c_high and plot_c_low is color-coded based on the enhanced trend strength (enhanced_t_s):
Gradient color transitions from blue to green based on the strength level, with blue representing weaker trends and green indicating stronger trends.
This visual fill provides an at-a-glance assessment of trend strength across the envelope, with color shifts highlighting momentum shifts.
Summary
The indicator’s purpose is to offer an adaptive price envelope that reflects real-time market volatility and trend strength. Here’s what each component contributes:
Basis Line: A trend-following line in the center that adjusts color based on trend direction.
Envelope (c_high, c_low): Adapts to volatility by expanding and contracting based on IDV, giving traders a responsive view of expected price bounds.
Fill Area: A color-gradient region representing trend strength within the envelope, helping traders easily identify momentum changes.
Overall, this tool helps to identify trend direction, market volatility, and strength of price movements, allowing for more informed decisions based on visual cues around price boundaries and trend momentum.
Komut dosyalarını "Exponential" için ara
Value at Risk [OmegaTools]The "Value at Risk" (VaR) indicator is a powerful financial risk management tool that helps traders estimate the potential losses in a portfolio over a specified period of time, given a certain level of confidence. VaR is widely used by financial institutions, traders, and risk managers to assess the probability of portfolio losses in both normal and volatile market conditions. This TradingView script implements a comprehensive VaR calculation using several models, allowing users to visualize different risk scenarios and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
Concept of Value at Risk
Value at Risk (VaR) is a statistical technique used to measure the likelihood of losses in a portfolio or financial asset due to market risks. In essence, it answers the question: "What is the maximum potential loss that could occur in a given portfolio over a specific time horizon, with a certain confidence level?" For instance, if a portfolio has a one-day 95% VaR of $10,000, it means that there is a 95% chance the portfolio will not lose more than $10,000 in a single day. Conversely, there is a 5% chance of losing more than $10,000. VaR is a key risk management tool for portfolio managers and traders because it quantifies potential losses in monetary terms, allowing for better-informed decision-making.
There are several ways to calculate VaR, and this indicator script incorporates three of the most commonly used models:
Historical VaR: This approach uses historical returns to estimate potential losses. It is based purely on past price data, assuming that the past distribution of returns is indicative of future risks.
Variance-Covariance VaR: This model assumes that asset returns follow a normal distribution and that the risk can be summarized using the mean and standard deviation of past returns. It is a parametric method that is widely used in financial risk management.
Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) VaR: In this model, recent data points are given more weight than older data. This dynamic approach allows the VaR estimation to react more quickly to changes in market volatility, which is particularly useful during periods of market stress. This model uses the Exponential Weighted Moving Average Volatility Model.
How the Script Works
The script starts by offering users a set of customizable input settings. The first input allows the user to choose between two main calculation modes: "All" or "OCT" (Only Current Timeframe). In the "All" mode, the script calculates VaR using all available methodologies—Historical, Variance-Covariance, and EWMA—providing a comprehensive risk overview. The "OCT" mode narrows the calculation to the current timeframe, which can be particularly useful for intraday traders who need a more focused view of risk.
The next input is the lookback window, which defines the number of historical periods used to calculate VaR. Commonly used lookback periods include 21 days (approximately one month), 63 days (about three months), and 252 days (roughly one year), with the script supporting up to 504 days for more extended historical analysis. A longer lookback period provides a more comprehensive picture of risk but may be less responsive to recent market conditions.
The confidence level is another important setting in the script. This represents the probability that the loss will not exceed the VaR estimate. Standard confidence levels are 90%, 95%, and 99%. A higher confidence level results in a more conservative risk estimate, meaning that the calculated VaR will reflect a more extreme loss scenario.
In addition to these core settings, the script allows users to customize the visual appearance of the indicator. For example, traders can choose different colors for "Bullish" (Risk On), "Bearish" (Risk Off), and "Neutral" phases, as well as colors for highlighting "Breaks" in the data, where returns exceed the calculated VaR. These visual cues make it easy to identify periods of heightened risk at a glance.
The actual VaR calculation is broken down into several models, starting with the Historical VaR calculation. This is done by computing the logarithmic returns of the asset's closing prices and then using linear interpolation to determine the percentile corresponding to the desired confidence level. This percentile represents the potential loss in the asset over the lookback period.
Next, the script calculates Variance-Covariance VaR using the mean and standard deviation of the historical returns. The standard deviation is multiplied by a z-score corresponding to the chosen confidence level (e.g., 1.645 for 95% confidence), and the resulting value is subtracted from the mean return to arrive at the VaR estimate.
The EWMA VaR model uses the EWMA for the sigma parameter, the standard deviation, obtaining a specific dynamic in the volatility. It is particularly useful in volatile markets where recent price behavior is more indicative of future risk than older data.
For traders interested in intraday risk management, the script provides several methods to adjust VaR calculations for lower timeframes. By using intraday returns and scaling them according to the chosen timeframe, the script provides a dynamic view of risk throughout the trading day. This is especially important for short-term traders who need to manage their exposure during high-volatility periods within the same day. The script also incorporates an EWMA model for intraday data, which gives greater weight to the most recent intraday price movements.
In addition to calculating VaR, the script also attempts to detect periods where the asset's returns exceed the estimated VaR threshold, referred to as "Breaks." When the returns breach the VaR limit, the script highlights these instances on the chart, allowing traders to quickly identify periods of extreme risk. The script also calculates the average of these breaks and displays it for comparison, helping traders understand how frequently these high-risk periods occur.
The script further visualizes the risk scenario using a risk phase classification system. Depending on the level of risk, the script categorizes the market as either "Risk On," "Risk Off," or "Risk Neutral." In "Risk On" mode, the market is considered bullish, and the indicator displays a green background. In "Risk Off" mode, the market is bearish, and the background turns red. If the market is neither strongly bullish nor bearish, the background turns neutral, signaling a balanced risk environment.
Traders can customize whether they want to see this risk phase background, along with toggling the display of the various VaR models, the intraday methods, and the break signals. This flexibility allows traders to tailor the indicator to their specific needs, whether they are day traders looking for quick intraday insights or longer-term investors focused on historical risk analysis.
The "Risk On" and "Risk Off" phases calculated by this Value at Risk (VaR) script introduce a novel approach to market risk assessment, offering traders an advanced toolset to gauge market sentiment and potential risk levels dynamically. These risk phases are built on a combination of traditional VaR methodologies and proprietary logic to create a more responsive and intuitive way to manage exposure in both normal and volatile market conditions. This method of classifying market conditions into "Risk On," "Risk Off," or "Risk Neutral" is not something that has been traditionally associated with VaR, making it a groundbreaking addition to this indicator.
How the "Risk On" and "Risk Off" Phases Are Calculated
In typical VaR implementations, the focus is on calculating the potential losses at a given confidence level without providing an overall market outlook. This script, however, introduces a unique risk classification system that takes the output of various VaR models and translates it into actionable signals for traders, marking whether the market is in a Risk On, Risk Off, or Risk Neutral phase.
The Risk On and Risk Off phases are primarily determined by comparing the current returns of the asset to the average VaR calculated across several different methods, including Historical VaR, Variance-Covariance VaR, and EWMA VaR. Here's how the process works:
1. Threshold Setting and Effect Calculation: The script first computes the average VaR using the selected models. It then checks whether the current returns (expressed as a negative value to signify loss) exceed the average VaR value. If the current returns surpass the calculated VaR threshold, this indicates that the actual market risk is higher than expected, signaling a potential shift in market conditions.
2. Break Analysis: In addition to monitoring whether returns exceed the average VaR, the script counts the number of instances within the lookback period where this breach occurs. This is referred to as the "break effect." For each period in the lookback window, the script checks whether the returns surpass the calculated VaR threshold and increments a counter. The percentage of periods where this breach occurs is then calculated as the "effect" or break percentage.
3. Dual Effect Check (if "Double" Risk Scenario is selected): When the user chooses the "Double" risk scenario mode, the script performs two layers of analysis. First, it calculates the effect of returns exceeding the VaR threshold for the current timeframe. Then, it calculates the effect for the lower intraday timeframe as well. Both effects are compared to the user-defined confidence level (e.g., 95%). If both effects exceed the confidence level, the market is deemed to be in a high-risk situation, thus triggering a Risk Off phase. If both effects fall below the confidence level, the market is classified as Risk On.
4. Risk Phases Determination: The final risk phase is determined by analyzing these effects in relation to the confidence level:
- Risk On: If the calculated effect of breaks is lower than the confidence level (e.g., fewer than 5% of periods show returns exceeding the VaR threshold for a 95% confidence level), the market is considered to be in a relatively safe state, and the script signals a "Risk On" phase. This is indicative of bullish conditions where the potential for extreme loss is minimal.
- Risk Off: If the break effect exceeds the confidence level (e.g., more than 5% of periods show returns breaching the VaR threshold), the market is deemed to be in a high-risk state, and the script signals a "Risk Off" phase. This indicates bearish market conditions where the likelihood of significant losses is higher.
- Risk Neutral: If the break effect hovers near the confidence level or if there is no clear trend indicating a shift toward either extreme, the market is classified as "Risk Neutral." In this phase, neither bulls nor bears are dominant, and traders should remain cautious.
The phase color that the script uses helps visualize these risk phases. The background will turn green in Risk On conditions, red in Risk Off conditions, and gray in Risk Neutral phases, providing immediate visual feedback on market risk. In addition to this, when the "Double" risk scenario is selected, the background will only turn green or red if both the current and intraday timeframes confirm the respective risk phase. This double-checking process ensures that traders are only given a strong signal when both longer-term and short-term risks align, reducing the likelihood of false signals.
A New Way of Using Value at Risk
This innovative Risk On/Risk Off classification, based on the interaction between VaR thresholds and market returns, represents a significant departure from the traditional use of Value at Risk as a pure risk measurement tool. Typically, VaR is employed as a backward-looking measure of risk, providing a static estimate of potential losses over a given timeframe with no immediate actionable feedback on current market conditions. This script, however, dynamically interprets VaR results to create a forward-looking, real-time signal that informs traders whether they are operating in a favorable (Risk On) or unfavorable (Risk Off) environment.
By incorporating the "break effect" analysis and allowing users to view the VaR breaches as a percentage of past occurrences, the script adds a predictive element that can be used to time market entries and exits more effectively. This **dual-layer risk analysis**, particularly when using the "Double" scenario mode, adds further granularity by considering both current timeframe and intraday risks. Traders can therefore make more informed decisions not just based on historical risk data, but on how the market is behaving in real-time relative to those risk benchmarks.
This approach transforms the VaR indicator from a risk monitoring tool into a decision-making system that helps identify favorable trading opportunities while alerting users to potential market downturns. It provides a more holistic view of market conditions by combining both statistical risk measurement and intuitive phase-based market analysis. This level of integration between VaR methodologies and real-time signal generation has not been widely seen in the world of trading indicators, marking this script as a cutting-edge tool for risk management and market sentiment analysis.
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to @skewedzeta for his invaluable contribution to the final script. From generating fresh ideas to applying his expertise in reviewing the formula, his support has been instrumental in refining the outcome.
lib_no_delayLibrary "lib_no_delay"
This library contains modifications to standard functions that return na before reaching the bar of their 'length' parameter.
That is because they do not compromise speed at current time for correct results in the past. This is good for live trading in short timeframes but killing applications on Monthly / Weekly timeframes if instruments, like in crypto, do not have extensive history (why would you even trade the monthly on a meme coin ... not my decision).
Also, some functions rely on source (value at previous bar), which is not available on bar 1 and therefore cascading to a na value up to the last bar ... which in turn leads to a non displaying indicator and waste of time debugging this)
Anyway ... there you go, let me know if I should add more functions.
sma(source, length)
Parameters:
source (float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars (length).
Returns: Simple moving average of source for length bars back.
ema(source, length)
Parameters:
source (float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars (length).
Returns: (float) The exponentially weighted moving average of the source.
rma(source, length)
Parameters:
source (float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars (length).
Returns: Exponential moving average of source with alpha = 1 / length.
atr(length)
Function atr (average true range) returns the RMA of true range. True range is max(high - low, abs(high - close ), abs(low - close )). This adapted version extends ta.atr to start without delay at first bar and deliver usable data instead of na by averaging ta.tr(true) via manual SMA.
Parameters:
length (simple int) : Number of bars back (length).
Returns: Average true range.
rsi(source, length)
Relative strength index. It is calculated using the ta.rma() of upward and downward changes of source over the last length bars. This adapted version extends ta.rsi to start without delay at first bar and deliver usable data instead of na.
Parameters:
source (float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars back (length).
Returns: Relative Strength Index.
Adaptive Price Channel (log scale)The field of technical analysis is consistently expanding, with numerous indicators used for market forecasting. Amongst them, a novel indicator dubbed the Adaptive Price Channel (log scale), inspired by the renowned Nadaraya-Watson Envelope (LuxAlgo) from LuxAlgo, is gaining traction for its distinctive features and versatility. Unlike its predecessor, the Adaptive Price Channel (log scale) is applicable on a logarithmic scale, thereby allowing it to be utilized on both smaller and larger timeframes.
1. Key Features
The Adaptive Price Channel (log scale) is founded on the trading view Pinescript language, version 5, with its primary aim to maximize the versatility and scalability of trading indicators. It allows traders to adapt it according to their preferred timeframe, thereby making it applicable for a wide range of trading strategies.
Its bandwidth can be adjusted through the input parameters, offering traders the flexibility to manipulate the indicator according to their strategic requirements. Furthermore, it provides an option for repainting smoothing. This option enables users to control the repainting effect in which the historical output of the indicator may change over time. When disabled, the indicator provides the endpoints of the calculations, ensuring consistency in historical values.
Moreover, the Adaptive Price Channel (log scale) allows for color customization, thereby improving visibility and user-friendliness. The colors of the indicator's upward and downward directions can be changed according to the user's preference.
2. Working Mechanism
The Adaptive Price Channel (log scale) uses the logarithm of the source, which is typically the closing price of a trading instrument. It leverages a Gaussian function that exponentially decreases the further the price moves away from the mean, accounting for both positive and negative values. The bandwidth of the Gaussian function can be adjusted to adapt to different market conditions.
Additionally, the Adaptive Price Channel (log scale) features an array of 500 lines for each bar, which helps in defining the boundaries or envelope for price movements. The calculations are executed using the Nadaraya-Watson estimator, which uses kernel regression for non-parametric analysis.
The calculated values for the upper and lower bounds of the envelope are then converted back from the logarithmic scale using the exponential function. This calculation process continues for each bar until the last bar in the data set.
To ensure optimal performance, the Adaptive Price Channel (log scale) uses dynamic repainting. If the repainting mode is enabled, it adjusts the smoothing of the indicator for the entire historical data, making the results more accurate.
3. Visualization and Alerts
The Adaptive Price Channel (log scale) offers an array of visual aids, including labels and plots. The upper and lower bounds of the envelope are plotted, and the indicator triggers labels at points where the closing price crosses these boundaries. These labels serve as alerts for potential trading opportunities.
4. Conclusion
The Adaptive Price Channel (log scale) is an innovative and adaptable trading indicator, drawing inspiration from its predecessor but introducing unique features to increase its versatility. By providing a repainting option, it ensures consistent historical values, thereby enhancing the reliability of the indicator. Furthermore, the capability to operate on a logarithmic scale broadens its usability for different timeframes. The Adaptive Price Channel (log scale) is a powerful tool for any trader, facilitating a better understanding of market dynamics, and enabling more informed decision-making.
Parabolic SAR + EMA 200 + MACD SignalsParabolic SAR + EMA 200 + MACD Signals Indicator, a powerful tool designed to help traders identify optimal entry points in the market.
This indicator combines three popular technical indicators: Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse), EMA200 (Exponential Moving Average 200) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) - to provide clear and concise buy and sell signals based on market trends.
The MACD component of this indicator calculates the difference between two exponentially smoothed moving averages, providing insight into the trend strength of the market. The Parabolic SAR component helps identify potential price reversals, while the EMA200 acts as a key level of support and resistance, providing additional confirmation of the overall trend direction.
Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, the MACD-Parabolic SAR-EMA200 Indicator is a must-have tool for anyone looking to improve their trading strategy and maximize profits in today's dynamic markets.
Buy conditions
The price should be above the EMA 200
Parabolic SAR should show an upward trend
MACD Delta should be positive
ُSell conditions
The price should be below the EMA 200
Parabolic SAR should show an downward trend
MACD Delta should be negative
Simple_RSI+PA+DCA StrategyThis strategy is a result of a study to understand better the workings of functions, for loops and the use of lines to visualize price levels. The strategy is a complete rewrite of the older RSI+PA+DCA Strategy with the goal to make it dynamic and to simplify the strategy settings to the bare minimum.
In case you are not familiar with the older RSI+PA+DCA Strategy, here is a short explanation of the idea behind the strategy:
The idea behind the strategy based on an RSI strategy of buying low. A position is entered when the RSI and moving average conditions are met. The position is closed when it reaches a specified take profit percentage. As soon as the first the position is opened multiple PA (price average) layers are setup based on a specified percentage of price drop. When the price hits the layer another position with the same position size is is opened. This causes the average cost price (the white line) to decrease. If the price drops more, another position is opened with another price average decrease as result. When the price starts rising again the different positions are separately closed when each reaches the specified take profit. The positions can be re-opened when the price drops again. And so on. When the price rises more and crosses over the average price and reached the specified Stop level (the red line) on top of it, it closes all the positions at once and cancels all orders. From that moment on it waits for another price dip before it opens a new position.
This is the old RSI+PA+DCA Strategy:
The reason to completely rewrite the code for this strategy is to create a more automated, adaptable and dynamic system. The old version is static and because of the linear use of code the amount of DCA levels were fixed to max 6 layers. If you want to add more DCA layers you manually need to change the script and add extra code. The big difference in the new version is that you can specify the amount of DCA layers in the strategy settings. The use of 'for loops' in the code gives the possibility to make this very dynamic and adaptable.
The RSI code is adapted, just like the old version, from the RSI Strategy - Buy The Dips by Coinrule and is used for study purpose. Any other low/dip finding indicator can be used as well
The distance between the DCA layers are calculated exponentially in a function. In the settings you can define the exponential scale to create the distance between the layers. The bigger the scale the bigger the distance. This calculation is not working perfectly yet and needs way more experimentation. Feel free to leave a comment if you have a better idea about this.
The idea behind generating DCA layers with a 'for loop' is inspired by the Backtesting 3commas DCA Bot v2 by rouxam .
The ideas for creating a dynamic position count and for opening and closing different positions separately based on a specified take profit are taken from the Simple_Pyramiding strategy I wrote previously.
This code is a result of a study and not intended for use as a full functioning strategy. To make the code understandable for users that are not so much introduced into pine script (like myself), every step in the code is commented to explain what it does. Hopefully it helps.
Enjoy!
Band Pass Normalized Suite (BPNS)Outlier-Free Normalization and Band Pass Filtering
We present a technique for normalizing and filtering a given time series, source, in order to improve its stationarity and enhance its features. The technique includes two stages: outlier-free normalization and band pass filtering.
Outlier-Free Normalization:
In order to normalize source and reduce the impact of outliers, we first smooth the time series using an exponential moving average with a smoothing factor of alpha. The smoothed time series is then normalized by subtracting the minimum value within a given lookback period, dev_lookback, and dividing the result by the range (maximum - minimum) within the same lookback period. Outliers are detected and excluded from the normalization process by identifying values that are more than outlier_level standard deviations away from the exponentially smoothed average.
Band Pass Filtering:
After normalization, the time series is passed through a band pass filter to remove low and high frequency components. The specifics of the band pass filter implementation are not provided.
Code snippet:
bes(float source = close, float alpha = 0.7) =>
var float smoothed = na
smoothed := na(smoothed) ? source : alpha * source + (1 - alpha) * nz(smoothed )
max(source, outlier_level, dev_lookback)=>
var float max = na
src = array.new()
stdev = math.abs((source - bes(source, 0.1))/ta.stdev(source, dev_lookback))
array.push(src, stdev < outlier_level ? source : -1.7976931348623157e+308)
max := math.max(nz(max ), array.get(src, 0))
min(source, outlier_level, dev_lookback) =>
var float min = na
src = array.new()
stdev = math.abs((source - bes(source, 0.1))/ta.stdev(source, dev_lookback))
array.push(src, stdev < outlier_level ? source : 1.7976931348623157e+308)
min := math.min(nz(min ), array.get(src, 0))
min_max(src, outlier_level, dev_lookback) =>
(src - min(src, outlier_level, dev_lookback))/(max(src, outlier_level, dev_lookback) - min(src, outlier_level, dev_lookback)) * 100
To apply the outlier-free normalization and band pass filter to a given time series, source, the min_max() function can be called with the desired values for outlier_level and dev_lookback as arguments. For example:
normalized_source = min_max(source, 2, 50)
This will apply the outlier-free normalization and band pass filter to source, using an outlier_level of 2 standard deviations and a lookback period of 50 data points for both the normalization and outlier detection steps. The resulting normalized and filtered time series will be stored in normalized_source.
It is important to note that the choice of values for outlier_level and dev_lookback will have a significant impact on the resulting normalized and filtered time series. These values should be chosen carefully based on the characteristics of the input time series and the desired properties of the normalized and filtered output.
In conclusion, the outlier-free normalization and band pass filtering technique presented here provides a useful tool for preprocessing time series data and improving its stationarity and feature content. The flexibility of the method, through the choice of outlier_level and dev_lookback values, allows it to be tailored to the specific characteristics of the input time series.
AMASling - All Moving Average Sling ShotThis indicator modifies the SlingShot System by Chris Moody to allow it to be based on 'any' Fast and Slow moving average pair. Open Long / Close Long / Open Short / Close Short alerts can be generated for automated bot trading based on the SlingShot strategy:
• Conservative Entry = Fast MA above Slow MA, and previous bar close below Fast MA, and current price above Fast MA
• Conservative Entry = Fast MA below Slow MA, and previous bar close above Fast MA, and current price below Fast MA
• Aggressive Entry = Fast MA above Slow MA, and price below Fast MA
• Aggressive Exit = Fast MA below Slow MA, and price above Fast MA
Entries and exits can also be made based on moving average crossovers, I initially put this in to make it easy to compare to a more standard strategy, but upon backtesting combining crossovers with the SlingShot appeared to produce better results on some charts.
Alerts can also be filtered to allow long deals only when the fast moving average is above the slow moving average (uptrend) and short deals only when the fast moving average is below the slow moving averages (downtrend).
If you have a strategy that can buy based on External Indicators you can use the 'Backtest Signal' which plots the values set in the 'Long / Short Signals' section.
The Fast, Slow and Signal Moving Averages can be set to:
• Simple Moving Average (SMA)
• Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
• Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
• Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA)
• Hull Moving Average (HMA)
• Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (RMA) (SMMA)
• Linear regression curve Moving Average (LSMA)
• Double EMA (DEMA)
• Double SMA (DSMA)
• Double WMA (DWMA)
• Double RMA (DRMA)
• Triple EMA (TEMA)
• Triple SMA (TSMA)
• Triple WMA (TWMA)
• Triple RMA (TRMA)
• Symmetrically Weighted Moving Average (SWMA) ** length does not apply **
• Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA)
• Variable Index Dynamic Average (VIDYA)
• Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA)
'Backtest Signal' and 'Deal State' are plotted to display.none, so change the Style Settings for the chart if you need to see them for testing.
Yes I did choose the name because 'It's Amasling!'
Any RibbonThis indicator displays a ribbon of two individually configured Fast and Slow and Moving Averages for a fixed time frame. It also displays the last close price of the configured time frame, colored green when above the band, red below and blue when interacting. A label shows the percentage distance of the current price from the band, (again red below, green above, blue interacting), when the price is within the band it will show the percentage distance from median of the band.
The Fast and Slow Moving Averages can be set to:
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA)
Hull Moving Average (HMA)
Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (RMA) (SMMA)
Linear regression curve Moving Average (LSMA)
Double EMA (DEMA)
Double SMA (DSMA)
Double WMA (DWMA)
Double RMA (DRMA)
Triple EMA (TEMA)
Triple SMA (TSMA)
Triple WMA (TWMA)
Triple RMA (TRMA)
Symmetrically Weighted Moving Average (SWMA) ** length does not apply **
Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA)
Variable Index Dynamic Average (VIDYA)
Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA)
I wrote this script after identifying some interesting moving average bands with my AMACD indicator and wanting to see them on the price chart. As an example look at the interactions between ETHBUSD 4hr and the band of VIDYA 32 Open and VIDYA 39 Open. Or start from the good old BTC Bull market support band, Weekly EMA 21 and SMA 20 and see if you can get a better fit. I find the Double RMA 22 a better fast option than the standard EMA 21.
AMACD - All Moving Average Convergence DivergenceThis indicator displays the Moving Average Convergane and Divergence ( MACD ) of individually configured Fast, Slow and Signal Moving Averages. Buy and sell alerts can be set based on moving average crossovers, consecutive convergence/divergence of the moving averages, and directional changes in the histogram moving averages.
The Fast, Slow and Signal Moving Averages can be set to:
Exponential Moving Average ( EMA )
Volume-Weighted Moving Average ( VWMA )
Simple Moving Average ( SMA )
Weighted Moving Average ( WMA )
Hull Moving Average ( HMA )
Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (RMA) ( SMMA )
Symmetrically Weighted Moving Average ( SWMA )
Arnaud Legoux Moving Average ( ALMA )
Double EMA ( DEMA )
Double SMA (DSMA)
Double WMA (DWMA)
Double RMA ( DRMA )
Triple EMA ( TEMA )
Triple SMA (TSMA)
Triple WMA (TWMA)
Triple RMA (TRMA)
Linear regression curve Moving Average ( LSMA )
Variable Index Dynamic Average ( VIDYA )
Fractal Adaptive Moving Average ( FRAMA )
If you have a strategy that can buy based on External Indicators use 'Backtest Signal' which returns a 1 for a Buy and a 2 for a sell.
'Backtest Signal' is plotted to display.none, so change the Style Settings for the chart if you need to see it for testing.
Nasdaq VXN Volatility Warning IndicatorToday I am sharing with the community a volatility indicator that uses the Nasdaq VXN Volatility Index to help you or your algorithms avoid black swan events. This is a similar the indicator I published last week that uses the SP500 VIX, but this indicator uses the Nasdaq VXN and can help inform strategies on the Nasdaq index or Nasdaq derivative instruments.
Variance is most commonly used in statistics to derive standard deviation (with its square root). It does have another practical application, and that is to identify outliers in a sample of data. Variance is defined as the squared difference between a value and its mean. Calculating that squared difference means that the farther away the value is from the mean, the more the variance will grow (exponentially). This exponential difference makes outliers in the variance data more apparent.
Why does this matter?
There are assets or indices that exist in the stock market that might make us adjust our trading strategy if they are behaving in an unusual way. In some instances, we can use variance to identify that behavior and inform our strategy.
Is that really possible?
Let’s look at the relationship between VXN and the Nasdaq100 as an example. If you trade a Nasdaq index with a mean reversion strategy or algorithm, you know that they typically do best in times of volatility . These strategies essentially attempt to “call bottom” on a pullback. Their downside is that sometimes a pullback turns into a regime change, or a black swan event. The other downside is that there is no logical tight stop that actually increases their performance, so when they lose they tend to lose big.
So that begs the question, how might one quantitatively identify if this dip could turn into a regime change or black swan event?
The Nasdaq Volatility Index ( VXN ) uses options data to identify, on a large scale, what investors overall expect the market to do in the near future. The Volatility Index spikes in times of uncertainty and when investors expect the market to go down. However, during a black swan event, historically the VXN has spiked a lot harder. We can use variance here to identify if a spike in the VXN exceeds our threshold for a normal market pullback, and potentially avoid entering trades for a period of time (I.e. maybe we don’t buy that dip).
Does this actually work?
In backtesting, this cut the drawdown of my index reversion strategies in half. It also cuts out some good trades (because high investor fear isn’t always indicative of a regime change or black swan event). But, I’ll happily lose out on some good trades in exchange for half the drawdown. Lets look at some examples of periods of time that trades could have been avoided using this strategy/indicator:
Example 1 – With the Volatility Warning Indicator, the mean reversion strategy could have avoided repeatedly buying this pullback that led to this asset losing over 75% of its value:
Example 2 - June 2018 to June 2019 - With the Volatility Warning Indicator, the drawdown during this period reduces from 22% to 11%, and the overall returns increase from -8% to +3%
How do you use this indicator?
This indicator determines the variance of VXN against a long term mean. If the variance of the VXN spikes over an input threshold, the indicator goes up. The indicator will remain up for a defined period of bars/time after the variance returns below the threshold. I have included default values I’ve found to be significant for a short-term mean-reversion strategy, but your inputs might depend on your risk tolerance and strategy time-horizon. The default values are for 1hr VXN data/charts. It will pull in variance data for the VXN regardless of which chart the indicator is applied to.
Disclaimer: Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas or be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
S&P500 VIX Volatility Warning IndicatorToday I am sharing with the community a volatility indicator that can help you or your algorithms avoid black swan events. Variance is most commonly used in statistics to derive standard deviation (with its square root). It does have another practical application, and that is to identify outliers in a sample of data. Variance in statistics is defined as the squared difference between a value and its mean. Calculating that squared difference means that the farther away the value is from the mean, the more the variance will grow (exponentially). This exponential difference makes outliers in the variance data more apparent.
Why does this matter?
There are assets or indices that exist in the stock market that might make us adjust our trading strategy if they are behaving in an unusual way. In some instances, we can use variance to identify that behavior and inform our strategy.
Is that really possible?
Let’s look at the relationship between VIX and the S&P500 as an example. If you trade an S&P500 index with a mean reversion strategy or algorithm, you know that they typically do best in times of volatility. These strategies essentially attempt to “call bottom” on a pullback. Their downside is that sometimes a pullback turns into a regime change, or a black swan event. The other downside is that there is no logical tight stop that actually increases their performance, so when they lose they tend to lose big.
So that begs the question, how might one quantitatively identify if this dip could turn into a regime change or black swan event?
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) uses options data to identify, on a large scale, what investors overall expect the market to do in the near future. The Volatility Index spikes in times of uncertainty and when investors expect the market to go down. However, during a black swan event, the VIX spikes a lot harder. We can use variance here to identify if a spike in the VIX exceeds our threshold for a normal market pullback, and potentially avoid entering trades for a period of time (I.e. maybe we don’t buy that dip).
Does this actually work?
In backtesting, this cut the drawdown of my index reversion strategies in half. It also cuts out some good trades (because high investor fear isn’t always indicative of a regime change or black swan event). But, I’ll happily lose out on some good trades in exchange for half the drawdown. Lets look at some examples of periods of time that trades could have been avoided using this strategy/indicator:
Example 1 – With the Volatility Warning Indicator, the mean reversion strategy could have avoided repeatedly buying this pullback that led to SPXL losing over 75% of its value:
Example 2 - June 2018 to June 2019 - With the Volatility Warning Indicator, the drawdown during this period reduces from 22% to 11%, and the overall returns increase from -8% to +3%
How do you use this indicator?
This indicator determines the variance of the VIX against a long term mean. If the variance of the VIX spikes over an input threshold, the indicator goes up. The indicator will remain up for a defined period of bars/time after the variance returns below the threshold. I have included default values I’ve found to be significant for a short-term mean-reversion strategy, but your inputs might depend on your risk tolerance and strategy time-horizon. The default values are for 1hr VIX data. It will pull in variance data for the VIX regardless of which chart the indicator is applied to.
Disclaimer : Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas or be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
MACD Alert [All MA in one] [Smart Crypto Trade (SCT)]This code is a gift from "Smart Crypto Trade (SCT)" group
MACD indicator contains 3 EMA, I think one of the best usage of MACD is trend detection and divergences.
In our indicator, you can select the type of Moving averages that used in macd.
You can using "MACD" based on several types of moving averages including:
Exponential Moving Average ( EMA )
Volume-Weighted Moving Average ( VWMA )
Simple Moving Average ( SMA )
Weighted Moving Average ( WMA )
Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (RMA) that used in RSI
Smoothed Moving Average ( SMMA )
Arnaud Legoux Moving Average ( ALMA )
Double EMA ( DEMA )
Double SMA (DSMA)
Double WMA (DWMA)
Double RMA (DRMA)
Triple EMA ( TEMA )
Triple SMA (TSMA)
Triple WMA (TWMA)
Triple RMA (TRMA)
Linear regression curve Moving Average ( LSMA )
Variable Index Dynamic Average ( VIDYA )
Fractal Adaptive Moving Average ( FRAMA )
In other words we tried to collect all the most popular MAs in our MACD indicator.
In addition, you can use four types of alert or alarm conditions for detection LONG or SHORT positions and trends. For this, you must set an alert in alert tab and set the condition based on four defaults conditions.
Enjoy
EvMA BandsIt is an index that looks like the final evolution by weighting the Bollinger band with exponential smoothing and volume.
The base Line is my EvMA as volume weighted EMA, so it is quite responsive.
The standard deviation is also exponentially smoothed, and the reaction is too good to handle, so it is further smoothed by EMA.
Charts without volume are not weighted with volume as 1.
It seems that the usage in trading is the same as the Bollinger band
ボリンジャーバンドを指数平滑出来高加重し、最終進化したような指標です
中央線は拙作のEvMAで出来高加重EMAなのでかなり反応が良いです
標準偏差も指数平滑出来高加重して反応が良すぎて扱いにくいのでさらにEMAで平滑化しています
出来高の無いチャートは出来高を１として加重しないようにしています
トレードでの使い方はボリンジャーバンドと同じで良いと思われます
Moving Averages Linear CombinatorLinearly combining moving averages can provide relatively interesting results such as a low-lagging moving averages or moving averages able to produce more pertinent crosses with the price.
As a remainder, a linear combination is a mathematical expression that is based on the multiplication of two variables (or terms) with two coefficients (also called scalars when working with vectors) and adding the results, that is:
ax + by
This expression is a linear combination , with x/y as variables and a/b as coefficients. Lot of indicators are made from linear combinations of moving averages, some examples include the double/triple exponential moving average, least squares moving average and the hull moving average.
Today proposed indicator allow the user to combine many types of moving averages together in order to get different results, we will introduce each settings of the indicator as well as how they affect the final output.
Explaining The Effects Of Linear Combinations
There are various ways to explain why linear combination can produce low-lagging moving averages, lets take for example the linear combination of a fast SMA of period p/2 and slow simple moving average of period p , the linear combination of these two moving averages is described as follows:
MA = 2SMA(p/2) + -1SMA(p)
Which is equivalent to:
MA = 2SMA(p/2) - SMA(p) = SMA(p/2) + SMA(p/2) - SMA(p)
We can see the above linear combinations consist in adding a bandpass filter to the fast moving average, which of course allow to reduce the lag. It is important to note that lag is reduced when the first moving average term is more reactive than the second moving average term. In case we instead use:
MA = -2SMA(p/2) + 1SMA(p)
we would have a combination between a low-pass and band-reject filter.
The Indicator
The indicator is based on the following linear combination:
Coeff × LeadingMA(length) - (Coeff-1) × LaggingMA(length)
The length setting control both moving averages period, leading control the type of moving average used as leading MA, while lagging control the type of MA used as lagging moving average, in order to get low lag results the leading MA should be more reactive than the lagging MA. Coeff control the coefficients of the linear combination, with higher values of coeff amplifying the effects of the linear combination, negative values of coeff would make a low-lag moving average become a lagging moving average, coeff = 1 return the leading MA, coeff = -1 return the lagging MA. The leading period divisor allow to divide the period of the leading MA by the selected number.
The types of moving average available are: simple, exponentially weighted, triangular, least squares, hull and volume weighted. The lagging MA allow you to select another MA on the chart as input.
length = 100, leading period divisor = 2, coeff = 2, with both MA type = SMA. Using coeff = -2 instead would give:
You can select "Plot leading and lagging" in order to show the leading and lagging MA.
Conclusion
The proposed tool allow the user to create a custom moving averages by making use of linear combination. The script is not that useful when you think about it, and might maybe be one of my worst, as it is relatively impractical, not proud of it, but it still took time to make so i decided to post it anyway.
[BTX] TRIX + MA combined indicator (open version)This indicator combines TRIX and MA of TRIX in one. You can choose which type of moving average line to be used (EMA or SMA).
Default values are 12 periods for TRIX and 10 periods for MA/TRIX, which helps better response to price movement.
This indicator can use in all markets, all timeframes. This is an update to my indicator, which is a protected script. You can find it at the link: .
What is the TRIX (Triple Exponential Average) indicator?
TRIX is a momentum oscillator that displays the percent rate of change of a triple exponentially smoothed moving average. It was developed in the early 1980s by Jack Hutson, an editor for 'Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities' magazine. With its triple smoothing, TRIX is designed to filter out insignificant price movements. Chartists can use TRIX to generate signals similar to MACD. A signal line can be applied to look for signal line crossovers. A directional bias can be determined with the absolute level. Bullish and bearish divergences can be used to anticipate reversals.
Bilateral Stochastic Oscillator StrategyIntroduction
Strategy based on the bilateral stochastic oscillator, this oscillator aim to detect trends and possible reversal points of the current trend. The oscillator is composed of 1 bull line in blue and 1 bear line in red as well as a signal line in orange, the strategy have many options such as two different strategy framework and a martingale mode. If you require more information about the indicator go check it into my uploaded indicators.
Strategy Frameworks
There are two frameworks available that can be selected from the strategy settings window. Both have the same closing conditions, the "Bull/Bear Cross" entry conditions are :
Buy : when the bull line cross over the bear line
Sell : when the bear line cross over the bull line
The "Signal Cross" entry conditions are :
Buy : when the bull line cross over the signal line
Sell : when the bear line cross over the signal line
Both have the same close conditions that is : close when bull/bear cross under the signal line.
Introduction To Martingale
The martingale money management system consist to double the order size after a loosing trade and can be described as a 2^x where x is the current number of loosing trades since the last win trade, when we win a trade the order size return to the default order size. Therefore our order size function is based on exponential growth.
This system enable the trader to win back his previous losses plus a potential profit, martingales must always be used with stops and sometimes take profits in order to get control in a strategy.
It must always be taken into account that in a series of losses the balance can exponentially decay thus ending to 0 in a matter of trades, this is why it is not recommended to use such system. The strategy allow you to select a martingale multiplier that can be inferior to 2 thus limiting risks, a multiplied of 1 disable the martingale.
Results
Those are the some statistics of the strategy applied to some forex majors by using the default settings in a time frames of 15 minutes.
//-------------------------------------------------------
EURUSD - Order Size 1000 - Spread 0.0002
Profit : $ 21.08
Trades : 19
PP : 57.89 %
Profit Factor : 3.228
Max Drawdown : -$ 3.81
Average Trade : $ 1.11
//-------------------------------------------------------
GBPUSD - Order Size 1000 - Spread 0.0002
Profit : $ 2.31
Trades : 20
PP : 55 %
Profit Factor : 0.938
Max Drawdown : -$ 20.29
Average Trade : $ 0.12
//-------------------------------------------------------
EURAUD - Order Size 1000 - Spread 0.0002
Profit : -$ 9.22
Trades : 20
PP : 40 %
Profit Factor : 0.698
Max Drawdown : -$ 23.44
Average Trade : $ 0.46
//-------------------------------------------------------
EURCHF - Order Size 1000 - Spread 0.0002
Profit : $ 1.58
Trades : 24
PP : 54.17 %
Profit Factor : 1.103
Max Drawdown : -$ 7.23
Average Trade : $ 0.07
//-------------------------------------------------------
Conclusions
Based on the results the strategy does not posses the sufficient performance in order to apply a martingale or any other growth systems as order size. Parameters might be subject to drastic changes depending on the market/time-frame in order to return long-term positive results. I let you draw your conclusions.
Tripple Smoothed RSITriple Exponentially Smoothed RSI by Mauritz van der Walt
If you like this idea, find it useful or use it anywhere please inform me @ www.tradingview.com
I use the RSI primarily for divergences and was in need for something more smooth to spot divergences easier without adding too much lag. Therefor I decided to use a Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA) to achieve this. /
The settings for all three EMA are exposed. After smoothing I rescale the value between 0 and 100 using the stochastics technique.
lib_kernelLibrary "lib_kernel"
Library "lib_kernel"
This is a tool / library for developers, that contains several common and adapted kernel functions as well as a kernel regression function and enum to easily select and embed a list into the settings dialog.
How to Choose and Modify Kernels in Practice
Compact Support Kernels (e.g., Epanechnikov, Triangular): Use for localized smoothing and emphasizing nearby data.
Oscillatory Kernels (e.g., Wave, Cosine): Ideal for detecting periodic patterns or mean-reverting behavior.
Smooth Tapering Kernels (e.g., Gaussian, Logistic): Use for smoothing long-term trends or identifying global price behavior.
kernel_Epanechnikov(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Epanechnikov_alt(u, sensitivity)
Parameters:
u (float)
sensitivity (float)
kernel_Triangular(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Triangular_alt(u, sensitivity)
Parameters:
u (float)
sensitivity (float)
kernel_Rectangular(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Uniform(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Uniform_alt(u, sensitivity)
Parameters:
u (float)
sensitivity (float)
kernel_Logistic(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Logistic_alt(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Logistic_alt2(u, sigmoid_steepness)
Parameters:
u (float)
sigmoid_steepness (float)
kernel_Gaussian(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Gaussian_alt(u, sensitivity)
Parameters:
u (float)
sensitivity (float)
kernel_Silverman(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Quartic(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Quartic_alt(u, sensitivity)
Parameters:
u (float)
sensitivity (float)
kernel_Biweight(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Triweight(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Sinc(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Wave(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Wave_alt(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Cosine(u)
Parameters:
u (float)
kernel_Cosine_alt(u, sensitivity)
Parameters:
u (float)
sensitivity (float)
kernel(u, select, alt_modificator)
wrapper for all standard kernel functions, see enum Kernel comments and function descriptions for usage szenarios and parameters
Parameters:
u (float)
select (series Kernel)
alt_modificator (float)
kernel_regression(src, bandwidth, kernel, exponential_distance, alt_modificator)
wrapper for kernel regression with all standard kernel functions, see enum Kernel comments for usage szenarios. performance optimized version using fixed bandwidth and target
Parameters:
src (float) : input data series
bandwidth (simple int) : sample window of nearest neighbours for the kernel to process
kernel (simple Kernel) : type of Kernel to use for processing, see Kernel enum or respective functions for more details
exponential_distance (simple bool) : if true this puts more emphasis on local / more recent values
alt_modificator (float) : see kernel functions for parameter descriptions. Mostly used to pronounce emphasis on local values or introduce a decay/dampening to the kernel output
statsLibrary "stats"
stats
factorial(x)
factorial
Parameters:
x (int)
standardize(x, length, lengthSmooth)
standardize
@description Moving Standardization of a time series.
Parameters:
x (float)
length (int)
lengthSmooth (int)
dnorm(x, mean, sd)
dnorm
@description Approximation for Normal Density Function.
Parameters:
x (float)
mean (float)
sd (float)
pnorm(x, mean, sd, log)
pnorm
@description Approximation for Normal Cumulative Distribution Function.
Parameters:
x (float)
mean (float)
sd (float)
log (bool)
ewma(x, length, tau_hl)
ewma
@description Exponentially Weighted Moving Average.
Parameters:
x (float)
length (int)
tau_hl (float)
ewm_sd(x, length, tau_hl)
Exponentially Weighted Moving Standard Deviation.
Parameters:
x (float)
length (int)
tau_hl (float)
ewm_scoring(x, length, tau_hl)
ewm_scoring
@description Exponentially Weighted Moving Standardization:
Parameters:
x (float)
length (int)
tau_hl (float)
Kaufman Efficiency Ratio-Based Risk PercentageOVERVIEW
The Kaufman Efficiency Ratio-Based Exposure Management indicator uses the Kaufman Efficiency Ratio (KER) to calculate how much you should risk per trade.
If KER is high, then the indicator will tell you to risk more per trade.
A high KER value indicates a trending market, so if you are a trend trader, it makes sense to risk more during these times.
If KER is low, then the indicator will tell you to risk less per trade.
A low KER value indicates a trending market, so if you are a trend trader, it makes sense to risk less during these times.
CONCEPTS
The Kaufman Efficiency Ratio (also known as the Efficiency Ratio, KER, or ER) is a separate indicator developed by Perry J. Kaufman and first published in Kaufman's book, "New Trading Systems and Methods" in 1987.
The KER used to measure the efficiency of a financial instrument's price movement. It is calculated as follows:
KER = (change in price over x bars) / (sum of absolute price changes over x bars)
The first part of the formula, "change in price over x bars" measures the difference between the current close price and the close price x bars ago. The second part of the formula "sum of absolute price changes over x bars" measures the sum of the |open-close| range of each bar between now and x bars ago.
If there is a high change in price over x bars relative to the sum of absolute price changes over x bars, a trending/volatile market is likely in place.
If there is a low change in price over x bars relative to the sum of absolute price changes over x bars, a ranging/choppy market is likely in place.
If you are a trend trader, you can assume that entries taken during high KER periods are more likely to lead to a trend. This indicator helps capitalize on that assumption by increasing risk % per trade during high KER periods, and decreasing risk % per trade during low KER periods.
It uses the following formulas to calculate a KER-adjusted risk % per trade:
Linearly-increasing risk % = min risk + (KER * (max risk - min risk))
Exponentially-increasing risk % = min risk + ((KER^n) * (max risk - min risk))
min risk = the smallest amount you'd be willing to risk on a trade
max risk = the largest amount you'd be willing to risk on a trade
KER = the current Kaufman Efficiency Ratio value
n = an exponent factor used to control the rate of increase of the risk %
Here is an example of how these formulas work:
Assuming that min risk is 0.5%, max risk is 2%, and KER is 0.8 (indicating a trending market), we can calculate the following risk per trade amounts:
Linearly-increasing risk % = 0.5 + (0.8 * (2 - 0.5)) = 1.7%
Exponentially-increasing risk % = 0.5 + ((0.8^3) * (2 - 0.5)) = 1.27%
Now, lets do the same calculations with a lower KER of 0.2 , which indicates a choppy market:
Linearly-increasing risk % = 0.5 + (0.2 * (2 - 0.5)) = 0.8%
Exponentially-increasing risk % = 0.5 + ((0.2^3) * (2 - 0.5)) = 0.51%
With a high KER, we risk more per trade to capitalize on the higher chance of a trending market. With a lower KER, we risk less per trade to protect ourselves from the higher chance of a choppy market.
HMA w/ SSE-Dynamic EWMA Volatility Bands [Loxx]This indicator is for educational purposes to lay the groundwork for future closed/open source indicators. Some of thee future indicators will employ parameter estimation methods described below, others will require complex solvers such as the Nelder-Mead algorithm on log likelihood estimations to derive optimal parameter values for omega, gamma, alpha, and beta for GARCH(1,1) MLE and other volatility metrics. For our purposes here, we estimate the rolling lambda (λ) value used to calculate EWMA by minimizing of the sum of the squared errors minus the long-run variance--a rolling window of the one year mean of squared log-returns. In practice, practitioners will use a λ equal to a standardized value put out by institutions such as JP Morgan. Even simpler than this, others use a ratio of (per - 1) / (per + 1) to derive λ where per is the lookback period for EWMA. Due to computation limits in Pine, we'll likely not see a true GARCH(1,1) MLE on Pine for quite some time, but future closed source indicators will contain some very interesting industry hacks to get close by employing modifications to EWMA. Enjoy!
Exponentially weighted volatility and its relationship to GARCH(1,1)
Exponentially weighted volatility--also called exponentially weighted moving average volatility (EWMA)--puts more weight on more recent observations. EWMA is calculated as follows:
σ*2 = λσ(n - 1)^2 + (1 − λ)u(n - 1)^2
The estimate, σn, of the volatility for day n (made at the end of day n − 1) is calculated from σn −1 (the estimate that was made at the end of day n − 2 of the volatility for day n − 1) and u^n−1 (the most recent daily percentage change).
The EWMA approach has the attractive feature that the data storage requirements are modest. At any given time, we need to remember only the current estimate of the variance rate and the most recent observation on the value of the market variable. When we get a new observation on the value of the market variable, we calculate a new daily percentage change to update our estimate of the variance rate. The old estimate of the variance rate and the old value of the market variable can then be discarded.
The EWMA approach is designed to track changes in the volatility. Suppose there is a big move in the market variable on day n − 1 so that u2n−1 is large. This causes our estimate of the current volatility to move upward. The value of λ governs how responsive the estimate of the daily volatility is to the most recent daily percentage change. A low value of λ leads to a great deal of weight being given to the u(n−1)^2 when σn is calculated. In this case, the estimates produced for the volatility on successive days are themselves highly volatile. A high value of λ (i.e., a value close to 1.0) produces estimates of the daily volatility that respond relatively slowly to new information provided by the daily percentage change.
The RiskMetrics database, which was originally created by JPMorgan and made publicly available in 1994, used the EWMA model with λ = 0.94 for updating daily volatility estimates. The company found that, across a range of different market variables, this value of λ gives forecasts of the variance rate that come closest to the realized variance rate. In 2006, RiskMetrics switched to using a long memory model. This is a model where the weights assigned to the u(n -i)^2 as i increases decline less fast than in EWMA.
GARCH(1,1) Model
The EWMA model is a particular case of GARCH(1,1) where γ = 0, α = 1 − λ, and β = λ. The “(1,1)” in GARCH(1,1) indicates that σ^2 is based on the most recent observation of u^2 and the most recent estimate of the variance rate. The more general GARCH(p, q) model calculates σ^2 from the most recent p observations on u2 and the most recent q estimates of the variance rate.7 GARCH(1,1) is by far the most popular of the GARCH models. Setting ω = γVL, the GARCH(1,1) model can also be written:
σ(n)^2 = ω + αu(n-1)^2 + βσ(n-1)^2
What this indicator does
Calculate log returns log(close/close(1))
Calculates Lambda (λ) dynamically by minimizing the sum of squared errors. I've restricted this to the daily timeframe so as to not bloat the code with additional logic required to derive an annualized EWMA historical volatility metric.
After the Lambda is derived, EWMA is calculated one last time and the result is the daily volatility
This daily volatility is multiplied by the source and the multiplier +/- the HMA to create the volatility bands
Finally, daily volatility is multiplied by the square-root of days per year to derive annualized volatility. Years are trading days for the asset, for most everything but crypto, its 252, for crypto is 365.
Daily Play Ace SpectrumSo the idea of the Daily Play Ace Spectrum is to extend the Ace Spectrum .
By exposing more parameters, making a variation of the Ace Spectrum which is more configurable.
The idea is this makes the Daily Play Ace Spectrum more suitable for use on shorter (hourly and minute) time scales.
These specific parameters exposed still maintain the original form of the original Ace Spectrum, but loosen up the hard coded assumptions of the original indicator.
By exposing more parameters this now makes the Daily Ace Spectrum more sensitive to input.
Meaning the parameters you choose are important and will set the characteristic reaction of the indicator to the series you give it.
This presents a trade-off, the simplicity of the original indicator is sacrificed.
But what's gained is a more comprehensive indicator that now needs more careful parameter adjustment .
Related to the Ace Spectrum:
