Xmaster Formula Indicator [TradingFinder] No Repaint Strategies🔵 Introduction
The Xmaster Formula Indicator is a powerful tool for forex trading, combining multiple technical indicators to provide insights into market trends, support and resistance levels, and price reversals. Developed in the early 2010s, it is widely valued for generating reliable buy and sell signals.
Key components include Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) for identifying trends and price momentum, and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) for analyzing trend strength and direction.
The Stochastic Oscillator and RSI (Relative Strength Index) enhance accuracy by signaling potential price reversals. Additionally, the Parabolic SAR assists in identifying trend reversals and managing risk.
By integrating these tools, the Xmaster Formula Indicator provides a comprehensive view of market conditions, empowering traders to make informed decisions.
🔵 How to Use
The Xmaster Formula Indicator offers two distinct methods for generating signals: Standard Mode and Advance Mode. Each method caters to different trading styles and strategies.
Standard Mode :
In Standard Mode, the indicator uses normalized moving average data to generate buy and sell signals. The difference between the short-term (10-period) and long-term (38-period) EMAs is calculated and normalized to a 0-100 scale.
Buy Signal : When the normalized value crosses above 55, accompanied by the trend line turning green, a buy signal is generated.
Sell Signal : When the normalized value crosses below 45, and the trend line turns red, a sell signal is issued.
This mode is simple, making it ideal for traders looking for straightforward signals without the need for additional confirmations.
Advance Mode :
Advance Mode combines multiple technical indicators to provide more detailed and robust signals.
This method analyzes trends by incorporating :
🟣 MACD
Buy Signal : When the MACD histogram bars are positive.
Sell Signal : When the MACD histogram bars are negative.
🟣 RSI
Buy Signal : When RSI is below 30, indicating oversold conditions.
Sell Signal : When RSI is above 70, suggesting overbought conditions.
🟣 Stochastic Oscillator
Buy Signal : When Stochastic is below 20.
Sell Signal : When Stochastic is above 80.
🟣 Parabolic SAR
Buy Signal : When SAR is below the price.
Sell Signal : When SAR is above the price.
A signal is generated in Advance Mode only when all these indicators align :
Buy Signal : All conditions point to a bullish trend.
Sell Signal : All conditions indicate a bearish trend.
This mode is more comprehensive and suitable for traders who prefer deeper analysis and stronger confirmations before executing trades.
🔵 Settings
Method :
Choose between "Standard" and "Advance" modes to determine how signals are generated. In Standard Mode, signals are based on normalized moving average data, while in Advance Mode, signals rely on the combination of MACD, RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, and Parabolic SAR.
Moving Average Settings :
Short Length : The period for the short-term EMA (default is 10).
Mid Length : The period for the medium-term EMA (default is 20).
Long Length : The period for the long-term EMA (default is 38).
MACD Settings :
Fast Length : The period for the fast EMA in the MACD calculation (default is 12).
Slow Length : The period for the slow EMA in the MACD calculation (default is 26).
Signal Line : The signal line period for MACD (default is 9).
Stochastic Settings :
Length : The period for the Stochastic Oscillator (default is 14).
RSI Settings :
Length : The period for the Relative Strength Index (default is 14).
🔵 Conclusion
The Xmaster Formula Indicator is a versatile and reliable tool for forex traders, offering both simplicity and advanced analysis through its Standard and Advance modes. In Standard Mode, traders benefit from straightforward signals based on normalized moving average data, making it ideal for quick decision-making.
Advance Mode, on the other hand, provides a more detailed analysis by combining multiple indicators like MACD, RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, and Parabolic SAR, delivering stronger confirmations for critical market decisions.
While the Xmaster Formula Indicator offers valuable insights and reliable signals, it is important to use it alongside proper risk management and other analytical methods. By leveraging its capabilities effectively, traders can enhance their trading strategies and achieve better outcomes in the dynamic forex market.
Komut dosyalarını "2010年+黄金价格+历史数据" için ara
Grover Llorens Activator Strategy AnalysisThe Grover Llorens Activator is a trailing stop indicator deeply inspired by the parabolic SAR indicator, and aim to provide early exit points and reversal detection. The indicator was posted not so long ago, you can find it here :
Today a strategy using the indicator is proposed, and its profitability is analyzed on 3 different markets with the main time frame being 1 hour, remember that lower time frames involve lower absolute price changes, therefore we are way more affected by the spread, and we can require a larger position sizing depending on our investment target, trading higher time-frames is always a good practice and this is why 1 hour is selected. Based on the result we might make various conclusions regarding the indicator accuracy and might have ideas on future improvements of the indicator.
I'am not great when it comes to strategy design, i still hope to share correct and useful information in this post, let me know your thoughts on the post format and if i should make more of these.
Setup And Rules
The analysis is solely based on the indicator signals, money management isn't taken into account, this allow us to have an idea on the indicator robustness and resilience, particularly on extremely volatile markets and ones exhibiting a chaotic structure, altho it is normally good practice to close any position before a market closure in order to avoid any potential major gaps.
The settings used are 480 for length and 14 for mult, this create relatively mid term signals that are suited for a trend indicator such as the Grover Llorens Activator, unfortunately we can't infer the indicator optimal settings, thats how it is with any technical indicator anyway.
Here are the rules of our strategy :
long : closing price cross over the indicator
short : closing price cross under the indicator
We use constant position sizing, once a signal is triggered all the previous positions are closed.
Description Of The Statistics Used
Various statistics are presented in this post, here is a brief description of the main ones :
Percent Profitability (higher = better): Percentage of winning trades, that is : winning trades/total number of trades × 100
Maximum Drawdown (lower = better) : The highest difference between a peak and a valley in the balance, that is : peak - valley , in percentage : (peak - valley)/peak × 100
Profit Factor (higher = better) : Gross profit divided by gross loss, values under 1 represent gross losses superior to the gross profits
Remember that more volatility = more risk, since higher absolute price changes can logically cause larger losses.
EURUSD
The first market analyzed is the Forex market with the EURUSD major pair with a position sizing of 1000 units (1 micro lot). Since October EURUSD is not showing any particular strong trend but posses a discrete rising motion, fortunately cycles can be observed.
The equity was rising until two trades appeared causing a decline in the equity. Before October a bearish market could be observed.
We can see that the equity is rising, the trend still posses various retracements that affect our indicator, however we can see that the indicator totally nail the end of the trend, thats the power of converging toward the price.
In short :
$ 86.63 net profit
340 closed trades
37.65 % profitable (thats a lot of loosing trades)
1.19 profit factor
$ 76.67 max drawdown
Applying a spread would create negative results (in general the average spread is used), not a great start...
BTCUSD
The cryptocurrency market is relatively more volatile than others, which also mean potentially higher returns, we test the indicator using certainly the most traded cryptocurrency, BTCUSD. We will use a position sizing of 1 unit.
In the case of BTCUSD the strategy balance is relatively stationary around the initial capital, with of course high dispersion.
from september to december the market is bearish with various ranging periods, no apparent cycles can be observed, except maybe in the ranging period of october, this ranging period is followed by a non linear trend (relatively parabolic) that the indicator failed to capture in its integrity (this is a recurrent problem and it is starting to piss me off xD).
In short :
$ 2010.64 net profit (aka how i bet the crypto market)
395 closed trades
38.23 % profitable
1.036 profit factor
$ 5738.01 max drawdown (aka how i lost to the crypto market)
AMD
AMD stand for Advanced Micro Devices and is a company focused on the development of computer technology, i love the microprocessor market and i really like AMD who start this year in a pretty great way with a net bullish trend.
The performance of the indicator on AMD is decent (at last !) with the equity producing many new higher highs. The indicator performance still drop in the middle end of 2019 with a large equity drawdown of 17$ caused by the gap of august 8. Unfortunately AMD, like lot of well behaving stocks can only tells us that the indicator has good performances on heavily trending markets with no excess of noise or chaotic structures.
In short :
$ 17.86 net profit (Enough for a consistent lunch)
295 closed trades
36.27 % profitable
1.414 profit factor
$ 10.37 max drawdown.
Conclusion
A strategy using the recently proposed Grover Llorens activator has been presented. We can easily conclude that the indicator can't possibly generate long term returns under chaotic and volatile markets, and could even produce unnecessary trades in trending markets without much parasitic fluctuations such as noise and retracements (think about a simple linear trend) since the indicator converge toward the price and would therefore automatically cross over/under the trend, thus guaranteeing a false signal.
However we have seen its ability to provide accurate early reversal detection shine from time to time, thus over performing lagging indicators in this aspect, however the duration of price fluctuations isn't fixed at a certain period, the rate of convergence should be way faster during volatile fluctuations, of moderate speed during more cyclic fluctuations, and really slow with apparent long term trends, this could be achieved by making the indicator adaptive, but it won't really make it necessarily perform better.
That said i still believe that converging trend indicators are really interesting and aim to capture the non lasting behavior of price fluctuations, they shouldn't receive so much hate (think about the poor p-sar).
Thanks for reading !
BTC Performance Table / BTC Seasonality Visualization
This script visualizes Bitcoins "seasonality", in form of a colored table (based on the idea from "BigBangTheory")
The history table shows you which months do statistically perform better/worse in comparison to other months.
How to use this script:
Choose ticker "BLX" ("BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin").
Set the charts time frame to weekly or daily. Tables position on the screen and its colors are configurable.
Table explanation:
Cells show whether a gain or a loss occured from month to month, since BTC came out in 2010.
The price difference, between monthly open and monthly close, determines the cell color (negative -> red, positive -> green).
The year column shows total gain (green) or loss (red) for that particular year.
Each value is presented as a rounded percentage number.
How this script works:
The script calculates the price difference between each monthly and yearly open and close, storing those numbers inside arrays.
Then it populates the table, by using those numbers and doing the cell coloring (there will be a yellow cell, in case no change should occur).
German Short-Description
Prozentuale Übersicht in Tabellenform, der monatlichen, sowie jährlichen, Performance des Bitcoin (basierend auf der Idee von "BigBangTheory").
Hierdurch wird die "Saisonalität" des Bitcoin sichtbar. D.h. welche Monate des Jahres, im Vergleich zu anderen Monaten, statistisch gesehen öfter positiv/negativ schließen.
Zwecks vollständiger Darstellung muss der Ticker "BLX" ("BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin") im weekly oder daily time frame aktiv sein.
ahr999 Index█ OVERVIEW
The ahr999 index is very suitable for long-term value investors in Bitcoin.
When the index is above 1.2, it indicates that the price of Bitcoin is rising in a bull market.
When it is below 1.2, it indicates a reasonable cost averaging interval for investment.
When it is below 0.45, it indicates that the price of Bitcoin is underestimated and is a relatively high-certainty bottoming interval.
█ CONCEPTS
ahr999 is the product of two indices, one is Bitcoin's 200-day average price cost and the other is a price estimate fitted to Bitcoin's age.
The average cost is actually a geometric mean of bitcoin price in 200days.
and the estimate price was calculated by a log function based on the bitcoin price history since 2010.
finally we got the formula:
ahr999 Index = (close / GMA200) * (close / Estimate Price)
█ ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This ahr999 index was originally created by Nine God in his book 《Bitcoin Accumulation》
Bollinger Bands Width and Bollinger Bands %BThis script shows both the Bollinger Band Width(BBW) and %B on the same indicator window.
Both the BBW and %B are introduced by John Bollinger(creator of Bollinger Bands) in 2010.
Default Parameter values: Length = 20, Source = Close, Mult = 2
Bollinger Bands Width (BBW): Color = (Default: Green )
- I consider stocks with "BBW >= 4" are at a volatile state and ready for price contraction, but this depends on the parameter values of your choice.
Bollinger Bands %B (%B): Color = (Default: Blue )
1. %B Above 10 = Price is Above the Upper Band
2. %B Equal to 10 = Price is at the Upper Band
3. %B Above 5 = Price is Above the Middle Line
4. %B Below 5 = Price is Below the Middle Line
5. %B Equal to 0 = Price is at the Lower Band
6. %B Below 0 = Price is Below the Lower Band
Vortex indicator cross support&resistance [LM]Hello traders,
I would like you to present Vortex indicator cross support&resistance script. The idea behind is same as my other S/R scripts to look for important S/R levels.
This time I have used little known and not that old Vortex Indicator that has been released in 2010. Vortex indicator has two plots that crosses each other and on the cross line is rendered. I have included smoothing with TEMA.
The indicator has following settings:
General control - here you can select period of vortex indicator and show/hide labels
Line control - where you can select type of line, colors...
Hope you will enjoy it,
Lukas
[blackcat] L2 Ehlers Empirical Mode TraderCircumstance Remarks: Because of my carelessness, the script of the same name that I posted before was banned and hidden because the description contained content that violated the TradingView House Rule. After communicating with the MOD, I corrected the description and obtained permission to publish it again. I hereby declare. Sorry for the inconvenience!
Level: 2
Background
John F. Ehlers introuced Empirical Mode Trader Indicator in Mar, 2010.
Function
In his article “Empirical Mode Decomposition,” John Ehlers and Ric Way suggest using methods based on bandpass filtering to distinguish trending from cycling markets. The article’s trading suggestions were used to create the Empirical Mode strategy given here for pine v4 script. If the strategy determines that the marke is in trending mode, then the strategy is allowed to trade with the trend — either long, in uptrends, or short, in downtrends. If the indicator determines that the market is in cycling mode, then the strategy allows trading cycle extremes, using Bollinger bands to trigger entries. You can do this by Choosing either cycle or trend mode at inputs.
Key Signal
Trend ---> Trend signal
FracAvgPeak ---> Upper band signal
FracAvgValley ---> Lower band signal
Pros and Cons
100% John F. Ehlers definition translation, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his book.
Remarks
The 75th script for Blackcat1402 John F. Ehlers Week publication.
Readme
In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.
The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.
Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.
Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.
Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.
Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.
Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.
[blackcat] L2 Ehlers Zero-lag EMACircumstance Remarks: Because of my carelessness, the script of the same name that I posted before was banned and hidden because the description contained content that violated the TradingView House Rule. After communicating with the MOD, I corrected the description and obtained permission to publish it again. I hereby declare. Sorry for the inconvenience!
Level: 2
Background
John F. Ehlers introuced Zero-lag EMA Indicator in Nov, 2010.
Function
In “Zero Lag (Well, Almost)” article, authors John Ehlers and Ric Way presented their zero-lag exponential moving average indicator and strategy. They have adapted their zero-lag EMA by extending the functionality in an additional chart indicator named “Zero-Lag EMA”. Labels were added so that the user can be alerted when a crossing of the averages occurs.
The authors created an error-correcting filter for an exponential moving average ( EMA ) that seeks to minimize the lag effect of increasing periods. Increasing the gain parameter from zero changes the filter from an EMA with lag to effectively zero lag (albeit with zero smoothing also). The crossover of these lines can be used to form a trading strategy, with the addition of some threshold value for the difference between the Price and error-correcting line.
Key Signal
ZLEMA ---> Zero-lag EMA fast line
Trigger ---> Zero-lag EMA slow line
Pros and Cons
100% John F. Ehlers definition translation, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his book.
Remarks
The 76th script for Blackcat1402 John F. Ehlers Week publication.
Readme
In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.
The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.
Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.
Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.
Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.
Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.
Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.
MA Streak Can Show When a Run Is Getting Long in the ToothMoving averages are one of the most common indicators in the world of technical analysis. And they’re often the ingredients of more complex indicators like MACD.
Today’s script shows how long prices have been moving in a given direction. Similar to our earlier Price Streak script, MA Streak counts the number of sessions that the average is rising or falling. It then plots the result in green (positive, rising) or red (negative, falling).
Because it uses a moving average instead of individual candles, this smooths out short-term noise to illustrate how long prices have been moving in a given direction.
Users can designate which price value (open, high, low, etc) to use under the Source input. They can also chose one of five moving average types. (See the code for a complete guide.)
Today’s chart shows that the S&P 500’s 10-day simple moving average (SMA) has been rising for 36 sessions. It’s the longest upside run since March 2019. Given the fact that the index is flirting with its pre-Covid highs, MA Streak may suggest the current rally is getting long in the tooth.
It's also noteworthy that the coronavirus correction in February and March saw the 10-day SMA drop for 24 straight sessions, which was its longest decline since June 2010.
BurgerCrypto.com: MA based band for bitcoin cycle highs&lowsWarning: This script works only on a daily chart and only works for bitcoin charts with a long history. Best to be used on the BLX chart as it goes back to July 2010.
This script shows you the Moving Average with the length of a full bitcoin cycle, in which a cycle is defined as a period between two reward halvings; i.e. 210.000 blocks.
After data analysis in Python, I found that the average inter arrival time is a bit lower than the often communicated 10minutes; it's 9.46minutes, which makes the 210.000 block interval equal to 1379days.
The 1379d Moving Average seems to serve well as a support for the price of bitcoin over time and it's 4th 2^n multiple did a good job in catching the cycle tops.
If you like this indicator, please leave some claps for the Medium article in which I introduced this indicator:
medium.com
Pentuple Exponential Moving Average (PEMA)This type of moving average was originally developed by Bruno Pio in 2010. I just ported the original code from MetaTrader 5. The method uses a linear combination of EMA cascades to achieve better smoothness. Well, actually you can create your own X-uple EMA, but be sure that the combination' coefficients are valid.
Quadruple Exponential Moving Average (QEMA)This type of moving average was originally developed by Bruno Pio in 2010. I just ported the original code from MetaTrader 5.
Creating long term bitcoin data
One of the problems, with bitcoin, is that we miss long term bitcoin data. There is not a single source from which to gather the value of bitcoin in any moment from it's inception. Or at least from when it was first exchanged into exchanges. If you look at coinmarketcap the data go back to the 28 apr 2013. But mtgox started in July 2010. If you go to yahoo, you will be able to gather data, but once you start working with this data you soon find out how poor is it. Basically it follows mtgox data while mtgox was alive, and then switched to some other exchange. But this means that we see a sudden jump in data which makes any indicator go wild. Basically it's really difficult to gather long term data on bitcoin. Also consider that mtgox did not just "go away" when it stopped trading. But in the database here it is still present with the fixed exchange rate of when it stopped.
So I tried to create the data we need. How? By taking three exchanges, and taking the median between them. The three exchanges I took were MTGOX: , BITFINEX: and KRAKEN: XBTUSD . We cannot avoid mtgox because it's the only source of data for the first years. But then as soon as the other exchanges come in we are going to use the median between them.
The indicator must be overlaid on another chart. And I use the forex usdeur which I then hide (If someone has a better idea, maybe something which is open 24/7, I would be happy to hear it).
Modified Price-Volume Trend Indicator The related article is copyrighted material from Stocks & Commodities Apr 2010.
BTC HistoricMerged Bitstamp and Mt Gox precrash data.
To use you will need to use any chart with a start time before 7/2010. You will need this to see all the data otherwise it will get cut off. Publishing ideas using this indicator will spam some other symbol so I would not recommend doing so (sorry XAUUSD).
Click the "eye" button next to the primary security to hide it.
Make sure the indicator scale is set to "Right".
Right click on the right axis, and uncheck "Scale Series Only"
Note: Since this is going to be overlayed onto another chart it will likely be missing weekend data. If anyone knows of a current chart that is 24/7 that has data prior to July 2011 please leave a comment.
You can tweak the price weight between Gox and Stamp and the point when the data starts to blend to the time when Gox went off a cliff.
- Key date values:
1377 is Jan-6-2014
1385 is Jan-15-2014 (default)
1337 is about the ATH (coincidentally)
1192 is July-5-2013
--- Custom indicators for historic data:
I updated to the latest versions
- BTC Historic RSI
pastebin.com
created by @debani (www.tradingview.com)
original here:
- BTC Histroric Willy
pastebin.com
original indicator by @CRInvestor (www.tradingview.com)
created by @flibbr (www.tradingview.com)
original here:
- BTC Historic Ichimoku
pastebin.com
thanks to @flibbr, @debani for the indicators
Let me know if you have questions, comments.
Bitcoin Expectile Model [LuxAlgo]The Bitcoin Expectile Model is a novel approach to forecasting Bitcoin, inspired by the popular Bitcoin Quantile Model by PlanC. By fitting multiple Expectile regressions to the price, we highlight zones of corrections or accumulations throughout the Bitcoin price evolution.
While we strongly recommend using this model with the Bitcoin All Time History Index INDEX:BTCUSD on the 3 days or weekly timeframe using a logarithmic scale, this model can be applied to any asset using the daily timeframe or superior.
Please note that here on TradingView, this model was solely designed to be used on the Bitcoin 1W chart, however, it can be experimented on other assets or timeframes if of interest.
🔶 USAGE
The Bitcoin Expectile Model can be applied similarly to models used for Bitcoin, highlighting lower areas of possible accumulation (support) and higher areas that allow for the anticipation of potential corrections (resistance).
By default, this model fits 7 individual Expectiles Log-Log Regressions to the price, each with their respective expectile ( tau ) values (here multiplied by 100 for the user's convenience). Higher tau values will return a fit closer to the higher highs made by the price of the asset, while lower ones will return fits closer to the lower prices observed over time.
Each zone is color-coded and has a specific interpretation. The green zone is a buy zone for long-term investing, purple is an anomaly zone for market bottoms that over-extend, while red is considered the distribution zone.
The fits can be extrapolated, helping to chart a course for the possible evolution of Bitcoin prices. Users can select the end of the forecast as a date using the "Forecast End" setting.
While the model is made for Bitcoin using a log scale, other assets showing a tendency to have a trend evolving in a single direction can be used. See the chart above on QQQ weekly using a linear scale as an example.
The Start Date can also allow fitting the model more locally, rather than over a large range of prices. This can be useful to identify potential shorter-term support/resistance areas.
🔶 DETAILS
🔹 On Quantile and Expectile Regressions
Quantile and Expectile regressions are similar; both return extremities that can be used to locate and predict prices where tops/bottoms could be more likely to occur.
The main difference lies in what we are trying to minimize, which, for Quantile regression, is commonly known as Quantile loss (or pinball loss), and for Expectile regression, simply Expectile loss.
You may refer to external material to go more in-depth about these loss functions; however, while they are similar and involve weighting specific prices more than others relative to our parameter tau, Quantile regression involves minimizing a weighted mean absolute error, while Expectile regression minimizes a weighted squared error.
The squared error here allows us to compute Expectile regression more easily compared to Quantile regression, using Iteratively reweighted least squares. For Quantile regression, a more elaborate method is needed.
In terms of comparison, Quantile regression is more robust, and easier to interpret, with quantiles being related to specific probabilities involving the underlying cumulative distribution function of the dataset; on the other expectiles are harder to interpret.
🔹 Trimming & Alterations
It is common to observe certain models ignoring very early Bitcoin price ranges. By default, we start our fit at the date 2010-07-16 to align with existing models.
By default, the model uses the number of time units (days, weeks...etc) elapsed since the beginning of history + 1 (to avoid NaN with log) as independent variable, however the Bitcoin All Time History Index INDEX:BTCUSD do not include the genesis block, as such users can correct for this by enabling the "Correct for Genesis block" setting, which will add the amount of missed bars from the Genesis block to the start oh the chart history.
🔶 SETTINGS
Start Date: Starting interval of the dataset used for the fit.
Correct for genesis block: When enabled, offset the X axis by the number of bars between the Bitcoin genesis block time and the chart starting time.
🔹 Expectiles
Toggle: Enable fit for the specified expectile. Disabling one fit will make the script faster to compute.
Expectile: Expectile (tau) value multiplied by 100 used for the fit. Higher values will produce fits that are located near price tops.
🔹 Forecast
Forecast End: Time at which the forecast stops.
🔹 Model Fit
Iterations Number: Number of iterations performed during the reweighted least squares process, with lower values leading to less accurate fits, while higher values will take more time to compute.
Combo 2/20 EMA & Bandpass Filter by TamarokDescription:
This strategy combines a 2/20 exponential moving average (EMA) crossover with a custom bandpass filter to generate buy and sell signals.
Use the Fast EMA and Slow EMA inputs to adjust trend sensitivity, and the Bandpass Filter Length, Delta, and Zones to fine-tune momentum turns.
Signals occur when both EMA and BPF agree in direction, with optional reversal and time filters.
How to use:
1. Add the script to your chart in TradingView.
2. Adjust the EMA and BP Filter parameters to match your asset’s volatility.
3. Enable ‘Reverse Signals’ to trade counter-trend, or use the time filter to limit sessions.
4. Set alerts on Long Alert and Short Alert for automated notifications.
Inspiration:
Based on HPotter’s original combo strategy (Stocks & Commodities Mar 2010).
Updated to Pine Script v6 with streamlined code and alerts.
WARNING:
For purpose educate only
Bitcoin Power Law [LuxAlgo]The Bitcoin Power Law tool is a representation of Bitcoin prices first proposed by Giovanni Santostasi, Ph.D. It plots BTCUSD daily closes on a log10-log10 scale, and fits a linear regression channel to the data.
This channel helps traders visualise when the price is historically in a zone prone to tops or located within a discounted zone subject to future growth.
🔶 USAGE
Giovanni Santostasi, Ph.D. originated the Bitcoin Power-Law Theory; this implementation places it directly on a TradingView chart. The white line shows the daily closing price, while the cyan line is the best-fit regression.
A channel is constructed from the linear fit root mean squared error (RMSE), we can observe how price has repeatedly oscillated between each channel areas through every bull-bear cycle.
Excursions into the upper channel area can be followed by price surges and finishing on a top, whereas price touching the lower channel area coincides with a cycle low.
Users can change the channel areas multipliers, helping capture moves more precisely depending on the intended usage.
This tool only works on the daily BTCUSD chart. Ticker and timeframe must match exactly for the calculations to remain valid.
🔹 Linear Scale
Users can toggle on a linear scale for the time axis, in order to obtain a higher resolution of the price, (this will affect the linear regression channel fit, making it look poorer).
🔶 DETAILS
One of the advantages of the Power Law Theory proposed by Giovanni Santostasi is its ability to explain multiple behaviors of Bitcoin. We describe some key points below.
🔹 Power-Law Overview
A power law has the form y = A·xⁿ , and Bitcoin’s key variables follow this pattern across many orders of magnitude. Empirically, price rises roughly with t⁶, hash-rate with t¹² and the number of active addresses with t³.
When we plot these on log-log axes they appear as straight lines, revealing a scale-invariant system whose behaviour repeats proportionally as it grows.
🔹 Feedback-Loop Dynamics
Growth begins with new users, whose presence pushes the price higher via a Metcalfe-style square-law. A richer price pool funds more mining hardware; the Difficulty Adjustment immediately raises the hash-rate requirement, keeping profit margins razor-thin.
A higher hash rate secures the network, which in turn attracts the next wave of users. Because risk and Difficulty act as braking forces, user adoption advances as a power of three in time rather than an unchecked S-curve. This circular causality repeats without end, producing the familiar boom-and-bust cadence around the long-term power-law channel.
🔹 Scale Invariance & Predictions
Scale invariance means that enlarging the timeline in log-log space leaves the trajectory unchanged.
The same geometric proportions that described the first dollar of value can therefore extend to a projected million-dollar bitcoin, provided no catastrophic break occurs. Institutional ETF inflows supply fresh capital but do not bend the underlying slope; only a persistent deviation from the line would falsify the current model.
🔹 Implications
The theory assigns scarcity no direct role; iterative feedback and the Difficulty Adjustment are sufficient to govern Bitcoin’s expansion. Long-term valuation should focus on position within the power-law channel, while bubbles—sharp departures above trend that later revert—are expected punctuations of an otherwise steady climb.
Beyond about 2040, disruptive technological shifts could alter the parameters, but for the next order of magnitude the present slope remains the simplest, most robust guide.
Bitcoin behaves less like a traditional asset and more like a self-organising digital organism whose value, security, and adoption co-evolve according to immutable power-law rules.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 General
Start Calculation: Determine the start date used by the calculation, with any prior prices being ignored. (default - 15 Jul 2010)
Use Linear Scale for X-Axis: Convert the horizontal axis from log(time) to linear calendar time
🔹 Linear Regression
Show Regression Line: Enable/disable the central power-law trend line
Regression Line Color: Choose the colour of the regression line
Mult 1: Toggle line & fill, set multiplier (default +1), pick line colour and area fill colour
Mult 2: Toggle line & fill, set multiplier (default +0.5), pick line colour and area fill colour
Mult 3: Toggle line & fill, set multiplier (default -0.5), pick line colour and area fill colour
Mult 4: Toggle line & fill, set multiplier (default -1), pick line colour and area fill colour
🔹 Style
Price Line Color: Select the colour of the BTC price plot
Auto Color: Automatically choose the best contrast colour for the price line
Price Line Width: Set the thickness of the price line (1 – 5 px)
Show Halvings: Enable/disable dotted vertical lines at each Bitcoin halving
Halvings Color: Choose the colour of the halving lines
PLR-Z For Loop🧠 Overview
PLR-Z For Loop is a trend-following indicator built on the Power Law Residual Z-score model of Bitcoin price behavior. By measuring how far price deviates from a long-term power law regression and applying a custom scoring loop, this tool identifies consistent directional pressure in market structure. Designed for BTC, this indicator helps traders align with macro trends.
🧩 Key Features
Power Law Residual Model: Tracks deviations of BTC price from its long-term logarithmic growth curve.
Z-Score Normalization: Applies long-horizon statistical normalization (400/1460 bars) to smooth residual deviations into a usable trend signal.
Loop-Based Trend Filter: Iteratively scores how often the current Z-score exceeds prior values, emphasizing trend persistence over volatility.
Optional Smoothing: Toggleable exponential smoothing helps filter noise in choppier market conditions.
Directional Regime Coloring: Aqua (bullish) and Red (bearish) visuals reinforce trend alignment across plots and candles.
🔍 How It Works
Power Law Curve: Price is compared against a logarithmic regression model fitted to historical BTC price evolution (starting July 2010), defining structural support, resistance, and centerline levels.
Residual Z-Score: The residual is calculated as the log-difference between price and the power law center.
This residual is then normalized using a rolling mean (400 days) and standard deviation (1460 days) to create a long-term Z-score.
Loop Scoring Logic:
A loop compares the current Z-score to a configurable number of past bars.
Each higher comparison adds +1, and each lower one subtracts -1.
The result is a trend persistence score (z_loop) that grows with consistent directional momentum.
Smoothing Option: A user-defined EMA smooths the score, if enabled, to reduce short-term signal noise.
Signal Logic:
Long signal when trend score exceeds long_threshold.
Short signal when score drops below short_threshold.
Directional State (CD): Internally manages the current market regime (1 = long, -1 = short), controlling all visual output.
🔁 Use Cases & Applications
Macro Trend Alignment: Ideal for traders and analysts tracking Bitcoin’s structural momentum over long timeframes.
Trend Persistence Filter: Helps confirm whether the current move is part of a sustained trend or short-lived volatility.
Best Suited for BTC: Built specifically on the BNC BLX price history and Bitcoin’s power law behavior. Not designed for use with other assets.
✅ Conclusion
PLR-Z For Loop reframes Bitcoin’s long-term power law model into a trend-following tool by scoring the persistence of deviations above or below fair value. It shifts the focus from valuation-based mean reversion to directional momentum, making it a valuable signal for traders seeking high-conviction participation in BTC’s broader market cycles.
⚠️ Disclaimer
The content provided by this indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes financial or investment advice. Trading and investing involve risk, including the potential loss of capital. Always backtest and apply risk management suited to your strategy.
Systemic Credit Market Pressure IndexSystemic Credit Market Pressure Index (SCMPI): A Composite Indicator for Credit Cycle Analysis
The Systemic Credit Market Pressure Index (SCMPI) represents a novel composite indicator designed to quantify systemic stress within credit markets through the integration of multiple macroeconomic variables. This indicator employs advanced statistical normalization techniques, adaptive threshold mechanisms, and intelligent visualization systems to provide real-time assessment of credit market conditions across expansion, neutral, and stress regimes. The methodology combines credit spread analysis, labor market indicators, consumer credit conditions, and household debt metrics into a unified framework for systemic risk assessment, featuring dynamic Bollinger Band-style thresholds and theme-adaptive visualization capabilities.
## 1. Introduction
Credit cycles represent fundamental drivers of economic fluctuations, with their dynamics significantly influencing financial stability and macroeconomic outcomes (Bernanke, Gertler & Gilchrist, 1999). The identification and measurement of credit market stress has become increasingly critical following the 2008 financial crisis, which highlighted the need for comprehensive early warning systems (Adrian & Brunnermeier, 2016). Traditional single-variable approaches often fail to capture the multidimensional nature of credit market dynamics, necessitating the development of composite indicators that integrate multiple information sources.
The SCMPI addresses this gap by constructing a weighted composite index that synthesizes four key dimensions of credit market conditions: corporate credit spreads, labor market stress, consumer credit accessibility, and household leverage ratios. This approach aligns with the theoretical framework established by Minsky (1986) regarding financial instability hypothesis and builds upon empirical work by Gilchrist & Zakrajšek (2012) on credit market sentiment.
## 2. Theoretical Framework
### 2.1 Credit Cycle Theory
The theoretical foundation of the SCMPI rests on the credit cycle literature, which posits that credit availability fluctuates in predictable patterns that amplify business cycle dynamics (Kiyotaki & Moore, 1997). During expansion phases, credit becomes increasingly available as risk perceptions decline and collateral values rise. Conversely, stress phases are characterized by credit contraction, elevated risk premiums, and deteriorating borrower conditions.
The indicator incorporates Kindleberger's (1978) framework of financial crises, which identifies key stages in credit cycles: displacement, boom, euphoria, profit-taking, and panic. By monitoring multiple variables simultaneously, the SCMPI aims to capture transitions between these phases before they become apparent in individual metrics.
### 2.2 Systemic Risk Measurement
Systemic risk, defined as the risk of collapse of an entire financial system or entire market (Kaufman & Scott, 2003), requires measurement approaches that capture interconnectedness and spillover effects. The SCMPI follows the methodology established by Bisias et al. (2012) in constructing composite measures that aggregate individual risk indicators into system-wide assessments.
The index employs the concept of "financial stress" as defined by Illing & Liu (2006), encompassing increased uncertainty about fundamental asset values, increased uncertainty about other investors' behavior, increased flight to quality, and increased flight to liquidity.
## 3. Methodology
### 3.1 Component Variables
The SCMPI integrates four primary components, each representing distinct aspects of credit market conditions:
#### 3.1.1 Credit Spreads (BAA-10Y Treasury)
Corporate credit spreads serve as the primary indicator of credit market stress, reflecting risk premiums demanded by investors for corporate debt relative to risk-free government securities (Gilchrist & Zakrajšek, 2012). The BAA-10Y spread specifically captures investment-grade corporate credit conditions, providing insight into broad credit market sentiment.
#### 3.1.2 Unemployment Rate
Labor market conditions directly influence credit quality through their impact on borrower repayment capacity (Bernanke & Gertler, 1995). Rising unemployment typically precedes credit deterioration, making it a valuable leading indicator for credit stress.
#### 3.1.3 Consumer Credit Rates
Consumer credit accessibility reflects the transmission of monetary policy and credit market conditions to household borrowing (Mishkin, 1995). Elevated consumer credit rates indicate tightening credit conditions and reduced credit availability for households.
#### 3.1.4 Household Debt Service Ratio
Household leverage ratios capture the debt burden relative to income, providing insight into household financial stress and potential credit losses (Mian & Sufi, 2014). High debt service ratios indicate vulnerable household sectors that may contribute to credit market instability.
### 3.2 Statistical Methodology
#### 3.2.1 Z-Score Normalization
Each component variable undergoes robust z-score normalization to ensure comparability across different scales and units:
Z_i,t = (X_i,t - μ_i) / σ_i
Where X_i,t represents the value of variable i at time t, μ_i is the historical mean, and σ_i is the historical standard deviation. The normalization period employs a rolling 252-day window to capture annual cyclical patterns while maintaining sensitivity to regime changes.
#### 3.2.2 Adaptive Smoothing
To reduce noise while preserving signal quality, the indicator employs exponential moving average (EMA) smoothing with adaptive parameters:
EMA_t = α × Z_t + (1-α) × EMA_{t-1}
Where α = 2/(n+1) and n represents the smoothing period (default: 63 days).
#### 3.2.3 Weighted Aggregation
The composite index combines normalized components using theoretically motivated weights:
SCMPI_t = w_1×Z_spread,t + w_2×Z_unemployment,t + w_3×Z_consumer,t + w_4×Z_debt,t
Default weights reflect the relative importance of each component based on empirical literature: credit spreads (35%), unemployment (25%), consumer credit (25%), and household debt (15%).
### 3.3 Dynamic Threshold Mechanism
Unlike static threshold approaches, the SCMPI employs adaptive Bollinger Band-style thresholds that automatically adjust to changing market volatility and conditions (Bollinger, 2001):
Expansion Threshold = μ_SCMPI - k × σ_SCMPI
Stress Threshold = μ_SCMPI + k × σ_SCMPI
Neutral Line = μ_SCMPI
Where μ_SCMPI and σ_SCMPI represent the rolling mean and standard deviation of the composite index calculated over a configurable period (default: 126 days), and k is the threshold multiplier (default: 1.0). This approach ensures that thresholds remain relevant across different market regimes and volatility environments, providing more robust regime classification than fixed thresholds.
### 3.4 Visualization and User Interface
The SCMPI incorporates advanced visualization capabilities designed for professional trading environments:
#### 3.4.1 Adaptive Theme System
The indicator features an intelligent dual-theme system that automatically optimizes colors and transparency levels for both dark and bright chart backgrounds. This ensures optimal readability across different trading platforms and user preferences.
#### 3.4.2 Customizable Visual Elements
Users can customize all visual aspects including:
- Color Schemes: Automatic theme adaptation with optional custom color overrides
- Line Styles: Configurable widths for main index, trend lines, and threshold boundaries
- Transparency Optimization: Automatic adjustment based on selected theme for optimal contrast
- Dynamic Zones: Color-coded regime areas with adaptive transparency
#### 3.4.3 Professional Data Table
A comprehensive 13-row data table provides real-time component analysis including:
- Composite index value and regime classification
- Individual component z-scores with color-coded stress indicators
- Trend direction and signal strength assessment
- Dynamic threshold status and volatility metrics
- Component weight distribution for transparency
## 4. Regime Classification
The SCMPI classifies credit market conditions into three distinct regimes:
### 4.1 Expansion Regime (SCMPI < Expansion Threshold)
Characterized by favorable credit conditions, low risk premiums, and accommodative lending standards. This regime typically corresponds to economic expansion phases with low default rates and increasing credit availability.
### 4.2 Neutral Regime (Expansion Threshold ≤ SCMPI ≤ Stress Threshold)
Represents balanced credit market conditions with moderate risk premiums and stable lending standards. This regime indicates neither significant stress nor excessive exuberance in credit markets.
### 4.3 Stress Regime (SCMPI > Stress Threshold)
Indicates elevated credit market stress with high risk premiums, tightening lending standards, and deteriorating borrower conditions. This regime often precedes or coincides with economic contractions and financial market volatility.
## 5. Technical Implementation and Features
### 5.1 Alert System
The SCMPI includes a comprehensive alert framework with seven distinct conditions:
- Regime Transitions: Expansion, Neutral, and Stress phase entries
- Extreme Conditions: Values exceeding ±2.0 standard deviations
- Trend Reversals: Directional changes in the underlying trend component
### 5.2 Performance Optimization
The indicator employs several optimization techniques:
- Efficient Calculations: Pre-computed statistical measures to minimize computational overhead
- Memory Management: Optimized variable declarations for real-time performance
- Error Handling: Robust data validation and fallback mechanisms for missing data
## 6. Empirical Validation
### 6.1 Historical Performance
Backtesting analysis demonstrates the SCMPI's ability to identify major credit stress episodes, including:
- The 2008 Financial Crisis
- The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic market disruption
- Various regional banking crises
- European sovereign debt crisis (2010-2012)
### 6.2 Leading Indicator Properties
The composite nature and dynamic threshold system of the SCMPI provides enhanced leading indicator properties, typically signaling regime changes 1-3 months before they become apparent in individual components or market indices. The adaptive threshold mechanism reduces false signals during high-volatility periods while maintaining sensitivity during regime transitions.
## 7. Applications and Limitations
### 7.1 Applications
- Risk Management: Portfolio managers can use SCMPI signals to adjust credit exposure and risk positioning
- Academic Research: Researchers can employ the index for credit cycle analysis and systemic risk studies
- Trading Systems: The comprehensive alert system enables automated trading strategy implementation
- Financial Education: The transparent methodology and visual design facilitate understanding of credit market dynamics
### 7.2 Limitations
- Data Dependency: The indicator relies on timely and accurate macroeconomic data from FRED sources
- Regime Persistence: Dynamic thresholds may exhibit brief lag during extremely rapid regime transitions
- Model Risk: Component weights and parameters require periodic recalibration based on evolving market structures
- Computational Requirements: Real-time calculations may require adequate processing power for optimal performance
## References
Adrian, T. & Brunnermeier, M.K. (2016). CoVaR. *American Economic Review*, 106(7), 1705-1741.
Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the black box: the credit channel of monetary policy transmission. *Journal of Economic Perspectives*, 9(4), 27-48.
Bernanke, B., Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S. (1999). The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework. *Handbook of Macroeconomics*, 1, 1341-1393.
Bisias, D., Flood, M., Lo, A.W. & Valavanis, S. (2012). A survey of systemic risk analytics. *Annual Review of Financial Economics*, 4(1), 255-296.
Bollinger, J. (2001). *Bollinger on Bollinger Bands*. McGraw-Hill Education.
Gilchrist, S. & Zakrajšek, E. (2012). Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations. *American Economic Review*, 102(4), 1692-1720.
Illing, M. & Liu, Y. (2006). Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada. *Journal of Financial Stability*, 2(3), 243-265.
Kaufman, G.G. & Scott, K.E. (2003). What is systemic risk, and do bank regulators retard or contribute to it? *The Independent Review*, 7(3), 371-391.
Kindleberger, C.P. (1978). *Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises*. Basic Books.
Kiyotaki, N. & Moore, J. (1997). Credit cycles. *Journal of Political Economy*, 105(2), 211-248.
Mian, A. & Sufi, A. (2014). What explains the 2007–2009 drop in employment? *Econometrica*, 82(6), 2197-2223.
Minsky, H.P. (1986). *Stabilizing an Unstable Economy*. Yale University Press.
Mishkin, F.S. (1995). Symposium on the monetary transmission mechanism. *Journal of Economic Perspectives*, 9(4), 3-10.
Market Breadth Toolkit [LuxAlgo]The Market Breadth Toolkit allows traders to use up to 6 different market breadth measures on two different exchanges, for a total of 12 different views of the market.
This toolkit includes divergence detection and allows setting custom fixed levels for traders who want to experiment with them.
🔶 USAGE
The main idea behind Breadth is to measure the number of advancing and declining issues and/or volume by exchange to have an idea of the underlying strength of the whole exchange.
On the other hand, thrusts represent big impulses in the breadth, as it is described by technicians to be the start of a new bullish trend.
By default, the Toolkit is set to "Breadth Thrust Zweig", with divergences enabled.
We will now explain all the different breadth measures available in the toolkit.
🔹 Deemer Breakaway Momentum
The "Breakaway Momentum" is a concept related to market breadth introduced by legendary technical analyst Walter Deemer.
As stated on his website:
We coined the term "breakaway momentum" in the 1970's to describe this REALLY powerful upward momentum
and:
We now know that the stock market generates breakaway momentum when the 10-day total advances on the NYSE are greater than 1.97 times the 10-day total NYSE declines OR the 20-day total advances on the NYSE are greater than 1.72 times the 20-day total NYSE declines.
As we can see in the chart above, which shows both methods, momentum is identified when the ratio of advancing issues to declining issues is greater than 1.97 for the 10-day average or 1.72 for the 20-day average.
🔹 Zweig Breadth Tools
Legendary trader and author Marting Zweig, best known as the author of "Winning on Wall Street" and the creator of the Put/Call Ratio.
In this toolkit, we feature two of his other tools:
Breadth Thrust: Number of Advancing / (Number of Advancing + Number of Declining Stocks)
Market Thrust: (Number of Advancing × Advancing Volume) — (Number of Declining Stocks × Declining Volume)
As we can see on the above chart, the Breadth Thrust printed a new signal on April 24, 2025, which is a bullish signal on the daily chart that can last several months, considering the previous signals.
On the right side, we have the Market Thrust as the delta between advancing minus declining volume weighted.
🔹 Whaley Measures
Wayne Whaley received the 2010 Charles Dow Award from the CMT Association, as stated on their website: "In 1994, the CMT Association established the Charles H. Dow Award to recognize outstanding research in technical analysis."
We include two of the tools from this paper:
Advance Decline Thrust: Number of Advancing / (Number of Advancing + Number of Declining Stocks)
Up/Down Volume Thrust Advancing Volume / (Advancing Volume + Declining Volume)
The chart above shows Thrust signals at extreme readings as described in the paper.
🔹 Divergences
The divergence detector is enabled by default, traders can disable it and fine-tune the detection length in the settings panel.
🔹 Fixed Levels
Traders can adjust the Thrust detection thresholds in the settings panel.
In the image above, we can see the Deemer Breakaway Momentum 10 with the original threshold (below) and with the 3.0 threshold (above).
🔶 SETTINGS
Breadth: Choose between 6 different breadth thrust measurement methods.
Data: Choose between NYSE or NASDAQ exchanges.
Divergences: Enable/Disable divergences and select the length detection.
🔹 Levels
Use Fixed Levels: Enable/Disable Fixed Levels.
Top Level: Select the top-level threshold.
Bottom Level: Select bottom level threshold.
Levels Style: Choose between dashed, dotted, or solid style.
🔹 Style
Breadth: Select breadth colors
Divergence: Select divergence colors
Employee Portfolio Generator [By MUQWISHI]▋ INTRODUCTION :
The “Employee Portfolio Generator” simplifies the process of building a long-term investment portfolio tailored for employees seeking to build wealth through investments rather than traditional bank savings. The tool empowers employees to set up recurring deposits at customizable intervals, enabling to make additional purchases in a list of preferred holdings, with the ability to define the purchasing investment weight for each security. The tool serves as a comprehensive solution for tracking portfolio performance, conducting research, and analyzing specific aspects of portfolio investments. The output includes an index value, a table of holdings, and chart plots, providing a deeper understanding of the portfolio's historical movements.
_______________________
▋ OVERVIEW:
● Scenario (The chart above can be taken as an example) :
Let say, in 2010, a newly employed individual committed to saving $1,000 each month. Rather than relying on a traditional savings account, chose to invest the majority of monthly savings in stable well-established stocks. Allocating 30% of monthly saving to AMEX:SPY and another 30% to NASDAQ:QQQ , recognizing these as reliable options for steady growth. Additionally, there was an admired toward innovative business models of NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AMZN , and NASDAQ:EBAY , leading to invest 10% in each of those companies. By the end of 2024, after 15 years, the total monthly deposits amounted to $179,000, which would have been the result of traditional saving alone. However, by sticking into long term invest, the value of the portfolio assets grew, reaching nearly $900,000.
_______________________
▋ OUTPUTS:
The table can be displayed in three formats:
1. Portfolio Index Title: displays the index name at the top, and at the bottom, it shows the index value, along with the chart timeframe, e.g., daily change in points and percentage.
2. Specifications: displays the essential information on portfolio performance, including the investment date range, total deposits, free cash, returns, and assets.
3. Holdings: a list of the holding securities inside a table that contains the ticker, last price, entry price, return percentage of the portfolio's total deposits, and latest weighted percentage of the portfolio. Additionally, a tooltip appears when the user passes the cursor over a ticker's cell, showing brief information about the company, such as the company's name, exchange market, country, sector, and industry.
4. Indication of New Deposit: An indication of a new deposit added to the portfolio for additional purchasing.
5. Chart: The portfolio's historical movements can be visualized in a plot, displayed as a bar chart, candlestick chart, or line chart, depending on the preferred format, as shown below.
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▋ INDICATOR SETTINGS:
Section(1): Table Settings
(1) Naming the index.
(2) Table location on the chart and cell size.
(3) Sorting Holdings Table. By securities’ {Return(%) Portfolio, Weight(%) Portfolio, or Ticker Alphabetical} order.
(4) Choose the type of index: {Assets, Return, or Return (%)}, and the plot type for the portfolio index: {Candle, Bar, or Line}.
(5) Positive/Negative colors.
(6) Table Colors (Title, Cell, and Text).
(7) To show/hide any of selected indicator’s components.
Section(2): Recurring Deposit Settings
(1) From DateTime of starting the investment.
(2) To DateTime of ending the investment
(3) The amount of recurring deposit into portfolio and currency.
(4) The frequency of recurring deposits into the portfolio {Weekly, 2-Weeks, Monthly, Quarterly, Yearly}
(5) The Depositing Model:
● Fixed: The amount for recurring deposits remains constant throughout the entire investment period.
● Increased %: The recurring deposit amount increases at the selected frequency and percentage throughout the entire investment period.
(5B) If the user selects “ Depositing Model: Increased % ”, specify the growth model (linear or exponential) and define the rate of increase.
Section(3): Portfolio Holdings
(1) Enable a ticker in the investment portfolio.
(2) The selected deposit frequency weight for a ticker. For example, if the monthly deposit is $1,000 and the selected weight for XYZ stock is 30%, $300 will be used to purchase shares of XYZ stock.
(3) Select up to 6 tickers that the investor is interested in for long-term investment.
Please let me know if you have any questions
S&P 100 Option Expiration Week StrategyThe Option Expiration Week Strategy aims to capitalize on increased volatility and trading volume that often occur during the week leading up to the expiration of options on stocks in the S&P 100 index. This period, known as the option expiration week, culminates on the third Friday of each month when stock options typically expire in the U.S. During this week, investors in this strategy take a long position in S&P 100 stocks or an equivalent ETF from the Monday preceding the third Friday, holding until Friday. The strategy capitalizes on potential upward price pressures caused by increased option-related trading activity, rebalancing, and hedging practices.
The phenomenon leveraged by this strategy is well-documented in finance literature. Studies demonstrate that options expiration dates have a significant impact on stock returns, trading volume, and volatility. This effect is driven by various market dynamics, including portfolio rebalancing, delta hedging by option market makers, and the unwinding of positions by institutional investors (Stoll & Whaley, 1987; Ni, Pearson, & Poteshman, 2005). These market activities intensify near option expiration, causing price adjustments that may create short-term profitable opportunities for those aware of these patterns (Roll, Schwartz, & Subrahmanyam, 2009).
The paper by Johnson and So (2013), Returns and Option Activity over the Option-Expiration Week for S&P 100 Stocks, provides empirical evidence supporting this strategy. The study analyzes the impact of option expiration on S&P 100 stocks, showing that these stocks tend to exhibit abnormal returns and increased volume during the expiration week. The authors attribute these patterns to intensified option trading activity, where demand for hedging and arbitrage around options expiration causes temporary price adjustments.
Scientific Explanation
Research has found that option expiration weeks are marked by predictable increases in stock returns and volatility, largely due to the role of options market makers and institutional investors. Option market makers often use delta hedging to manage exposure, which requires frequent buying or selling of the underlying stock to maintain a hedged position. As expiration approaches, their activity can amplify price fluctuations. Additionally, institutional investors often roll over or unwind positions during expiration weeks, creating further demand for underlying stocks (Stoll & Whaley, 1987). This increased demand around expiration week typically leads to temporary stock price increases, offering profitable opportunities for short-term strategies.
Key Research and Bibliography
Johnson, T. C., & So, E. C. (2013). Returns and Option Activity over the Option-Expiration Week for S&P 100 Stocks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(11), 4226-4240.
This study specifically examines the S&P 100 stocks and demonstrates that option expiration weeks are associated with abnormal returns and trading volume due to increased activity in the options market.
Stoll, H. R., & Whaley, R. E. (1987). Program Trading and Expiration-Day Effects. Financial Analysts Journal, 43(2), 16-28.
Stoll and Whaley analyze how program trading and portfolio insurance strategies around expiration days impact stock prices, leading to temporary volatility and increased trading volume.
Ni, S. X., Pearson, N. D., & Poteshman, A. M. (2005). Stock Price Clustering on Option Expiration Dates. Journal of Financial Economics, 78(1), 49-87.
This paper investigates how option expiration dates affect stock price clustering and volume, driven by delta hedging and other option-related trading activities.
Roll, R., Schwartz, E., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2009). Options Trading Activity and Firm Valuation. Journal of Financial Markets, 12(3), 519-534.
The authors explore how options trading activity influences firm valuation, finding that higher options volume around expiration dates can lead to temporary price movements in underlying stocks.
Cao, C., & Wei, J. (2010). Option Market Liquidity and Stock Return Volatility. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 45(2), 481-507.
This study examines the relationship between options market liquidity and stock return volatility, finding that increased liquidity needs during expiration weeks can heighten volatility, impacting stock returns.
Summary
The Option Expiration Week Strategy utilizes well-researched financial market phenomena related to option expiration. By positioning long in S&P 100 stocks or ETFs during this period, traders can potentially capture abnormal returns driven by option market dynamics. The literature suggests that options-related activities—such as delta hedging, position rollovers, and portfolio adjustments—intensify demand for underlying assets, creating short-term profit opportunities around these key dates.
