Trend Forecasting - The Quant Science🌏 Trend Forecasting | ENG 🌏
This plug-in acts as a statistical filter, adding new information to your chart that will allow you to quickly verify the direction of a trend and the probability with which the price will be above or below the average in the future, helping you to uncover probable market inefficiencies.
🧠 Model calculation
The model calculates the arithmetic mean in relation to positive and negative events within the available sample for the selected time series. Where a positive event is defined as a closing price greater than the average, and a negative event as a closing price less than the average. Once all events have been calculated, the probabilities are extrapolated by relating each event.
Example
Positive event A: 70
Negative event B: 30
Total events: 100
Probabilities A: (100 / 70) x 100 = 70%
Probabilities B: (100 / 30) x 100 = 30%
Event A has a 70% probability of occurring compared to Event B which has a 30% probability.
🔍 Information Filter
The data on the graph show the future probabilities of prices being above average (default in green) and the probabilities of prices being below average (default in red).
The information that can be quickly retrieved from this indicator is:
1. Trend: Above-average prices together with a constant of data in green greater than 50% + 1 indicate that the observed historical series shows a bullish trend. The probability is correlated proportionally to the value of the data; the higher and increasing the expected value, the greater the observed bullish trend. On the other hand, a below-average price together with a red-coloured data constant show quantitative data regarding the presence of a bearish trend.
2. Future Probability: By analysing the data, it is possible to find the probability with which the price will be above or below the average in the future. In green are classified the probabilities that the price will be higher than the average, in red are classified the probabilities that the price will be lower than the average.
🔫 Operational Filter .
The indicator can be used operationally in the search for investment or trading opportunities given its ability to identify an inefficiency within the observed data sample.
⬆ Bullish forecast
For bullish trades, the inefficiency will appear as a historical series with a bullish trend, with high probability of a bullish trend in the future that is currently below the average.
⬇ Bearish forecast
For short trades, the inefficiency will appear as a historical series with a bearish trend, with a high probability of a bearish trend in the future that is currently above the average.
📚 Settings
Input: via the Input user interface, it is possible to adjust the periods (1 to 500) with which the average is to be calculated. By default the periods are set to 200, which means that the average is calculated by taking the last 200 periods.
Style: via the Style user interface it is possible to adjust the colour and switch a specific output on or off.
🇮🇹Previsione Della Tendenza Futura | ITA 🇮🇹
Questo plug-in funge da filtro statistico, aggiungendo nuove informazioni al tuo grafico che ti permetteranno di verificare rapidamente tendenza di un trend, probabilità con la quale il prezzo si troverà sopra o sotto la media in futuro aiutandoti a scovare probabili inefficienze di mercato.
🧠 Calcolo del modello
Il modello calcola la media aritmetica in relazione con gli eventi positivi e negativi all'intero del campione disponibile per la serie storica selezionata. Dove per evento positivo si intende un prezzo alla chiusura maggiore della media, mentre per evento negativo si intende un prezzo alla chiusura minore della media. Calcolata la totalità degli eventi le probabilità vengono estrapolate rapportando ciascun evento.
Esempio
Evento positivo A: 70
Evento negativo B: 30
Totale eventi : 100
Formula A: (100 / 70) x 100 = 70%
Formula B: (100 / 30) x 100 = 30%
Evento A ha una probabilità del 70% di realizzarsi rispetto all' Evento B che ha una probabilità pari al 30%.
🔍 Filtro informativo
I dati sul grafico mostrano le probabilità future che i prezzi siano sopra la media (di default in verde) e le probabilità che i prezzi siano sotto la media (di default in rosso).
Le informazioni che si possono rapidamente reperire da questo indicatore sono:
1. Trend: I prezzi sopra la media insieme ad una costante di dati in verde maggiori al 50% + 1 indicano che la serie storica osservata presenta un trend rialzista. La probabilità è correlata proporzionalmente al valore del dato; tanto più sarà alto e crescente il valore atteso e maggiore sarà la tendenza rialzista osservata. Viceversa, un prezzo sotto la media insieme ad una costante di dati classificati in colore rosso mostrano dati quantitativi riguardo la presenza di una tendenza ribassista.
2. Probabilità future: analizzando i dati è possibile reperire la probabilità con cui il prezzo si troverà sopra o sotto la media in futuro. In verde vengono classificate le probabilità che il prezzo sarà maggiore alla media, in rosso vengono classificate le probabilità che il prezzo sarà minore della media.
🔫 Filtro operativo
L' indicatore può essere utilizzato a livello operativo nella ricerca di opportunità di investimento o di trading vista la capacità di identificare un inefficienza all'interno del campione di dati osservato.
⬆ Previsione rialzista
Per operatività di tipo rialzista l'inefficienza apparirà come una serie storica a tendenza rialzista, con alte probabilità di tendenza rialzista in futuro che attualmente si trova al di sotto della media.
⬇ Previsione ribassista
Per operatività di tipo short l'inefficienza apparirà come una serie storica a tendenza ribassista, con alte probabilità di tendenza ribassista in futuro che si trova attualmente sopra la media.
📚 Impostazioni
Input: tramite l'interfaccia utente Input è possibile regolare i periodi (da 1 a 500) con cui calcolare la media. Di default i periodi sono impostati sul valore di 200, questo significa che la media viene calcolata prendendo gli ultimi 200 periodi.
Style: tramite l'interfaccia utente Style è possibile regolare il colore e attivare o disattivare un specifico output.
Komut dosyalarını "纳斯达克100近30年涨幅" için ara
Numbers RenkoRenko with Volume and Time in the box was developed by David Weis (Authority on Wyckoff method) and his student.
I like this style (I don't know what it is officially called) because it brings out the potential of Wyckoff method and Renko, and looks beautiful.
I can't find this style Indicator anywhere, so I made something like it, then I named "Numbers Renko" (数字 練行足 in Japanese).
Caution : This indicator only works exactly in Renko Chart.
////////// Numbers Renko General Settings //////////
Volume Divisor : To make good looking Volume Number.
ex) You set 100. When Volume is 0.056, 0.05 x 100 = 5.6. 6 is plotted in the box (Decimal are round off).
Show Only Large Renko Volume : show only Renko Volume which is larger than Average Renko Volume (it is calculated by user selected moving average, option below).
Show Renko Time : "Only Large Renko Time" show only Renko Time which is larger than Average Renko Time (it is calculated by user selected moving average, option below).
EMA period for calculation : This is used to calculate Average Renko Time and Average Renko Volume (These are used to decide Numbers colors and Candles colors). Default is EMA, You can choice SMA.
////////// Numbers Renko Coloring //////////
The Numbers in the box are color coded by compared the current Renko Volume with the Average Renko Volume.
If the current Renko Volume is 2 times larger than the ARV, Color2 will be used. If the current Renko Volume is 1.5 times larger than the ARV, Color1.5 will be used. Color1 If the current Renko Volume is larger than the ARV . Color0.5 is larger than half Athe RV and Color0 is less than or equal to half the ARV. Color1, Color1.5 and Color2 are Large Value, so only these colored Numbers are showed when use "Show Only ~ " option.
Default is Renko Volume based Color coding, You can choice Renko Time based Color coding. Therefore you can use two type coloring at the same time. ex) The Numbers Colors are Renko Volume based. Candle body, border and wick Colors are Renko Time based.
////////// Weis Wave Volume //////////
Show Effort vs Result : Weis Wave Volume divided by Wave Length.
ex) If 100 Up WWV is accumulated between 30 Up Renko Box, 100 / 30 = 3.33... will be 3.3 (Second decimal will be rounded off).
No Result Ratio : If current "Effort vs Result" is "No Result Ratio" times larger than Average Effort vs Result, Square Mark will be show. AEvsR is calculated by 5SMA.
ex) You set 1.5. If Current EvsR is 20 and AEvsR is 10, 20 > 10 x 1.5 then Square Mark will be show.
If the left and right arrows are in the same direction, the right arrow is omitted.
Show Comparison Marks : Show left side arrow by compare current value to previous previous value and show right side small arrow by compare current value to previous value.
ex) Current Up WWV is 17 and Previous Up WWV (previous previous value) is 12, left side arrow is Up. Previous Dn WWV is 20, right side small arrow is Dn.
Large Volume Ratio : If current WWV is "Large Volume Ratio" times larger than Average WWV, Large WWV color is used.
Sample layout
RSI3graf. 3 RSI in one window[wozdux] Three RSI indicator charts in one window. Plus, the resale area (green) and overbought area ( red) are highlighted. Indicator settings are periods of calculation of the RSI indicator (24, 14, 9). The fourth parameter (30) is the critical levels, which are at a distance of 30 units from the edges. If the parameter is 30, then the oversold level is 30 and the overbought level is 70 (100-30).
AIP Indicactor[Geo]This indicator is designed for automatic investment plan. So short name it as AIP.
In a planned period, you purchase fixed fiat to buy stock every time.
This indicator calculates average price in the planned period.
It's new, but still a moving average.
I set 5 periods:300,100,30,10,3 as default.
Have fun!
