BTC/USD Inflation priced in! ~Period 2009 - 2023 (by TAS)The script creates a custom indicator titled "BTC Adjusted for Economic Factors.
Adjusted BTC Price is plotted in red, making it more prominent. The adjusted price is Bitcoin's historical closing prices adjusted for cumulative inflation over time, based on the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rates from 2009 onwards.
The script calculates the adjusted price of Bitcoin by taking into account the effect of inflation on its value. It uses annual CPI rates for each year from 2009 to 2022 to calculate a cumulative inflation factor. The script assumes a placeholder inflation rate of 2.5% for 2023, indicating that this value should be updated when the actual rate is available. The script suggests adding CPI rates for additional years as they become available to maintain the accuracy of the adjustment.
Here's a breakdown of how the script works:
Core CPI Annual Inflation Rates: It starts by defining the annual inflation rates for each year from 2009 to 2022, expressed as a percentage divided by 100 to convert to a decimal.
Cumulative Inflation Calculation: The script calculates cumulative inflation starting from the year 2009 up to the current year. For each year that has passed since 2009, it multiplies the cumulative inflation factor by (1 + cpiRate), where cpiRate is the inflation rate for that year. This effectively compounds the inflation rate over time.
Adjusting Bitcoin's Price: The script then adjusts Bitcoin's closing price (close) for the calculated cumulative inflation to get the adjusted price (adjustedPrice).
Plotting the Prices: Finally, it plots both the original and the adjusted Bitcoin prices on the chart, allowing users to visually compare how inflation has theoretically impacted Bitcoin's value over time.
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Important to notice, Fib. Retracements from the 2017 cycle top to the recent top (¬80K) doesn't look invalidated.
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Inputs and feedback are welcome!
"欧元兑美元汇率历史数据查询2023年6月走势" için komut dosyalarını ara
Monthly Options Expiration 2023Monthly options expiration for the year 2023.
Also you can set a flag X no. of days before the expiration date. I use it at as marker to take off existing positions in expiration week or roll to next expiration date or to place new trades.
All the best traders.
Algoflow's Levels PlotterAlgoflow's Levels Plotter - Indicator
Release Date: Jan. 15, 2024
Release version: v3 r1
Release notes date: Jan. 15, 2024
Overview
Parses user's input of levels to be plotted and labeled on the chart for NQ & ES futures
Features
Quick plotting of predetermined price levels.
- Type or copy from another source of values in a predetermined output format.
Supports separate line plotting for Weekly, OVN and RTH values
- Plot only Weekly, OVN or RTH levels, or all
- Configure colors separately for Inflection Points, Weekly, OVN & RTH levels
- Shift/place price labels separately to easily identify levels
User Impacts of Changes
Requires users to remove previous version and re-add indicator "Algoflow's Levels Plotter", then re-add values. Colors and shift values will need to be re-entered and/or reconfigured
Support
Questions, feedbacks, and requests are welcomed. Please feel free to use Comments or direct private message via TradingView.
Quick usage notes:
The indicator allows you to enter data for both ES & NQ at the same time. This is useful in single chart window/layout situations, like viewing on the phone. When you switch between futures, the data is already there.
If you leave the entries blank, nothing will be plotted. This is useful if you want to have separate charts for ES & NQ. So you can just enter only the relevant data of either.
As an indicator, input values are saved within it, until it is removed from the chart. Input for one chart will not update other charts of the same ticker, even in the same layout.
The easiest and quickest way to share the inputs across all charts and layouts is to use the Indicator Templates feature.
- After input values are entered (for both ES & NQ futures) via the indicator's Settings, select ""Save as Default"".
- Click on ""Indicator Templates"" (4 squares icon), and click on ""Save Indicator template...""
- Remove the previous version of the indicator in other charts.
- Click on ""Indicator Templates"" icon, and select the newly created template. Repeat this for other charts of the same futures ticker
The labels can be disabled in settings > Style tab. Use the Inputs tab to configure orientation (left or right of current bar on chart), and how much spacing from the current (in distance of bars)
Format example:
Primary directional inflection point: 1234
For Bulls: 1244.25, 1254, 1264.50
For Bears: 1224, 1214, 1204
Changes
v3 r1 - Fixed erroneous default values in Weekly input sections. Added options to en/disable display of each set (session) of levels. Default label text size to normal, from small.
- Jan 15, 2024
v2 r9 - Added support for USTEC & US500.
- Dec. 10, 2023
v2 r8 - Added configuration features for users to modify the labels' text colors and size. Simplified code further by moving inputs processing modules into a single user function.
- Oct. 31, 2023
v2 r7 - Added support for the micro NQ & ES. Modified to ignore string case in inputs
- Oct 18, 2023
v2 r4 - Added support of weekly lines and labels features. Began the process of optimizing/simplifying code
- Oct. 15, 2023
v2 r3 - Made Inflection Point levels' colors configurable
- Oct. 04, 2023
v2 r2 - Removed comments & debug codes from development build revision #518
- Oct. 04, 2023
v2 r1 - Released from development revision #518. Major rewrite to fix previous and overlapping plots of lines and labels.
- Oct. 04, 2023
v1 r2 - First release of indicator
- Oct. 02, 2023
Economic Calendar EventsThis indicator provides an overlay of Events on the main chart, where each Event is visually represented by a Label and vertical Line, placed at the specified time interval for each Event.
Events are defined by user data as an input string on the settings widget panel for the indicator. The event data is a string (semicolon delimited) whose grammar is a representation of a collection of Event records, where each Event record is a comma-separated list of fields, which correspond to:
The name of the event.
The symbol or ticker to which the Event applies (or `*` if it should apply to all ticklers).
The timezone and then the year, month, day, hour, and minute of the event, respectively.
Each Event record is separated by the semicolon ";" character.
As an example , assume `evantData` is the string:
"SVB,*,UTC,2023,03,10,00,00;US CPI,*,UTC,2023,04,12,08,30;ETH Shanghai,ETHUSD,UTC,2023,04,12,08,30"
In the above case, there are 4 Events defined, three of which apply to all tickers and one applies only to ETHUSD, as follows:
The first event is named SVB and applies to all tickers at UTC time on March 10, 2023 at 12:00:00.
The second event is named US CPI and applies to all tickers at UTC time on April 12, 2023 at 08:30:00.
The third event is named ETH Shanghai and applies to the ETHUSD ticker at UTC time on April 12, 2023 at 08:30:00.
The fourth event is named FOMC Rates and applies to all tickers at UTC time on May 3, 2023 at 14:00:00.
The following is a BNF for defining event data:
market-events ::= event-record | event-record ";" market-events
event-record ::= event-name "," ticker ”,” event-timezone "," event-time
event-name ::= string
event-time>::= year "," month "," day "," hour "," minute
event-timezone ::= string
ticker ::= "*" | string
string ::= +
year ::= {4}
month ::= {2}
day ::= {2}
hour ::= {2}
minute ::= {2}
Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy - Portfolio CalculatorTHE ALL WEATHER STRATEGY INDICATOR: A GUIDE TO RAY DALIO'S LEGENDARY PORTFOLIO APPROACH
Introduction: The Genesis of Financial Resilience
In the sprawling corridors of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund managing over 150 billion dollars in assets, Ray Dalio conceived what would become one of the most influential investment strategies of the modern era. The All Weather Strategy, born from decades of market observation and rigorous backtesting, represents a paradigm shift from traditional portfolio construction methods that have dominated Wall Street since Harry Markowitz's seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.
Unlike conventional approaches that chase returns through market timing or stock picking, the All Weather Strategy embraces a fundamental truth that has humbled countless investors throughout history: nobody can consistently predict the future direction of markets. Instead of fighting this uncertainty, Dalio's approach harnesses it, creating a portfolio designed to perform reasonably well across all economic environments, hence the evocative name "All Weather."
The strategy emerged from Bridgewater's extensive research into economic cycles and asset class behavior, culminating in what Dalio describes as "the Holy Grail of investing" in his bestselling book "Principles" (Dalio, 2017). This Holy Grail isn't about achieving spectacular returns, but rather about achieving consistent, risk-adjusted returns that compound steadily over time, much like the tortoise defeating the hare in Aesop's timeless fable.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION
The All Weather Strategy's origins trace back to the tumultuous economic periods of the 1970s and 1980s, when traditional portfolio construction methods proved inadequate for navigating simultaneous inflation and recession. Raymond Thomas Dalio, born in 1949 in Queens, New York, founded Bridgewater Associates from his Manhattan apartment in 1975, initially focusing on currency and fixed-income consulting for corporate clients.
Dalio's early experiences during the 1970s stagflation period profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. Unlike many of his contemporaries who viewed inflation and deflation as opposing forces, Dalio recognized that both conditions could coexist with either economic growth or contraction, creating four distinct economic environments rather than the traditional two-factor models that dominated academic finance.
The conceptual breakthrough came in the late 1980s when Dalio began systematically analyzing asset class performance across different economic regimes. Working with a small team of researchers, Bridgewater developed sophisticated models that decomposed economic conditions into growth and inflation components, then mapped historical asset class returns against these regimes. This research revealed that traditional portfolio construction, heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds, left investors vulnerable to specific economic scenarios.
The formal All Weather Strategy emerged in 1996 when Bridgewater was approached by a wealthy family seeking a portfolio that could protect their wealth across various economic conditions without requiring active management or market timing. Unlike Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund, which relied on active trading and leverage, the All Weather approach needed to be completely passive and unleveraged while still providing adequate diversification.
Dalio and his team spent months developing and testing various allocation schemes, ultimately settling on the 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 framework that balances risk contributions rather than dollar amounts. This approach was revolutionary because it focused on risk budgeting—ensuring that no single asset class dominated the portfolio's risk profile—rather than the traditional approach of equal dollar allocations or market-cap weighting.
The strategy's first institutional implementation began in 1996 with a family office client, followed by gradual expansion to other wealthy families and eventually institutional investors. By 2005, Bridgewater was managing over $15 billion in All Weather assets, making it one of the largest systematic strategy implementations in institutional investing.
The 2008 financial crisis provided the ultimate test of the All Weather methodology. While the S&P 500 declined by 37% and many hedge funds suffered double-digit losses, the All Weather strategy generated positive returns, validating Dalio's risk-balancing approach. This performance during extreme market stress attracted significant institutional attention, leading to rapid asset growth in subsequent years.
The strategy's theoretical foundations evolved throughout the 2000s as Bridgewater's research team, led by co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and Bob Prince, refined the economic framework and incorporated insights from behavioral economics and complexity theory. Their research, published in numerous institutional white papers, demonstrated that traditional portfolio optimization methods consistently underperformed simpler risk-balanced approaches across various time periods and market conditions.
Academic validation came through partnerships with leading business schools and collaboration with prominent economists. The strategy's risk parity principles influenced an entire generation of institutional investors, leading to the creation of numerous risk parity funds managing hundreds of billions in aggregate assets.
In recent years, the democratization of sophisticated financial tools has made All Weather-style investing accessible to individual investors through ETFs and systematic platforms. The availability of high-quality, low-cost ETFs covering each required asset class has eliminated many of the barriers that previously limited sophisticated portfolio construction to institutional investors.
The development of advanced portfolio management software and platforms like TradingView has further democratized access to institutional-quality analytics and implementation tools. The All Weather Strategy Indicator represents the culmination of this trend, providing individual investors with capabilities that previously required teams of portfolio managers and risk analysts.
Understanding the Four Economic Seasons
The All Weather Strategy's theoretical foundation rests on Dalio's observation that all economic environments can be characterized by two primary variables: economic growth and inflation. These variables create four distinct "economic seasons," each favoring different asset classes. Rising growth benefits stocks and commodities, while falling growth favors bonds. Rising inflation helps commodities and inflation-protected securities, while falling inflation benefits nominal bonds and stocks.
This framework, detailed extensively in Bridgewater's research papers from the 1990s, suggests that by holding assets that perform well in each economic season, an investor can create a portfolio that remains resilient regardless of which season unfolds. The elegance lies not in predicting which season will occur, but in being prepared for all of them simultaneously.
Academic research supports this multi-environment approach. Ang and Bekaert (2002) demonstrated that regime changes in economic conditions significantly impact asset returns, while Fama and French (2004) showed that different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to economic factors. The All Weather Strategy essentially operationalizes these academic insights into a practical investment framework.
The Original All Weather Allocation: Simplicity Masquerading as Sophistication
The core All Weather portfolio, as implemented by Bridgewater for institutional clients and later adapted for retail investors, maintains a deceptively simple static allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% commodities, and 7.5% Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). This allocation may appear arbitrary to the uninitiated, but each percentage reflects careful consideration of historical volatilities, correlations, and economic sensitivities.
The 30% stock allocation provides growth exposure while limiting the portfolio's overall volatility. Stocks historically deliver superior long-term returns but with significant volatility, as evidenced by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's average annual return of approximately 10% since 1926, accompanied by standard deviation exceeding 15% (Ibbotson Associates, 2023). By limiting stock exposure to 30%, the portfolio captures much of the equity risk premium while avoiding excessive volatility.
The combined 55% allocation to bonds (40% long-term plus 15% intermediate-term) serves as the portfolio's stabilizing force. Long-term bonds provide substantial interest rate sensitivity, performing well during economic slowdowns when central banks reduce rates. Intermediate-term bonds offer a balance between interest rate sensitivity and reduced duration risk. This bond-heavy allocation reflects Dalio's insight that bonds typically exhibit lower volatility than stocks while providing essential diversification benefits.
The 7.5% commodities allocation addresses inflation protection, as commodity prices typically rise during inflationary periods. Historical analysis by Bodie and Rosansky (1980) demonstrated that commodities provide meaningful diversification benefits and inflation hedging capabilities, though with considerable volatility. The relatively small allocation reflects commodities' high volatility and mixed long-term returns.
Finally, the 7.5% TIPS allocation provides explicit inflation protection through government-backed securities whose principal and interest payments adjust with inflation. Introduced by the U.S. Treasury in 1997, TIPS have proven effective inflation hedges, though they underperform nominal bonds during deflationary periods (Campbell & Viceira, 2001).
Historical Performance: The Evidence Speaks
Analyzing the All Weather Strategy's historical performance reveals both its strengths and limitations. Using monthly return data from 1970 to 2023, spanning over five decades of varying economic conditions, the strategy has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns while experiencing lower volatility than traditional stock-heavy portfolios.
During this period, the All Weather allocation generated an average annual return of approximately 8.2%, compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the strategy's annual volatility measured just 9.1%, substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.8% volatility. This translated to a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 for the All Weather Strategy versus 0.54 for the S&P 500, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance.
More impressively, the strategy's maximum drawdown over this period was 12.3%, occurring during the 2008 financial crisis, compared to the S&P 500's maximum drawdown of 50.9% during the same period. This drawdown mitigation proves crucial for long-term wealth building, as Stein and DeMuth (2003) demonstrated that avoiding large losses significantly impacts compound returns over time.
The strategy performed particularly well during periods of economic stress. During the 1970s stagflation, when stocks and bonds both struggled, the All Weather portfolio's commodity and TIPS allocations provided essential protection. Similarly, during the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, the portfolio's bond-heavy allocation cushioned losses while maintaining positive returns in several years when stocks declined significantly.
However, the strategy underperformed during sustained bull markets, particularly the 1990s technology boom and the 2010s post-financial crisis recovery. This underperformance reflects the strategy's conservative nature and diversified approach, which sacrifices potential upside for downside protection. As Dalio frequently emphasizes, the All Weather Strategy prioritizes "not losing money" over "making a lot of money."
Implementing the All Weather Strategy: A Practical Guide
The All Weather Strategy Indicator transforms Dalio's institutional-grade approach into an accessible tool for individual investors. The indicator provides real-time portfolio tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analytics, eliminating much of the complexity traditionally associated with implementing sophisticated allocation strategies.
To begin implementation, investors must first determine their investable capital. As detailed analysis reveals, the All Weather Strategy requires meaningful capital to implement effectively due to transaction costs, minimum investment requirements, and the need for precise allocations across five different asset classes.
For portfolios below $50,000, the strategy becomes challenging to implement efficiently. Transaction costs consume a disproportionate share of returns, while the inability to purchase fractional shares creates allocation drift. Consider an investor with $25,000 attempting to allocate 7.5% to commodities through the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF (DJP), currently trading around $25 per share. This allocation targets $1,875, enough for only 75 shares, creating immediate tracking error.
At $50,000, implementation becomes feasible but not optimal. The 30% stock allocation ($15,000) purchases approximately 37 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at current prices around $400 per share. The 40% long-term bond allocation ($20,000) buys 200 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at approximately $100 per share. While workable, these allocations leave significant cash drag and rebalancing challenges.
The optimal minimum for individual implementation appears to be $100,000. At this level, each allocation becomes substantial enough for precise implementation while keeping transaction costs below 0.4% annually. The $30,000 stock allocation, $40,000 long-term bond allocation, $15,000 intermediate-term bond allocation, $7,500 commodity allocation, and $7,500 TIPS allocation each provide sufficient size for effective management.
For investors with $250,000 or more, the strategy implementation approaches institutional quality. Allocation precision improves, transaction costs decline as a percentage of assets, and rebalancing becomes highly efficient. These larger portfolios can also consider adding complexity through international diversification or alternative implementations.
The indicator recommends quarterly rebalancing to balance transaction costs with allocation discipline. Monthly rebalancing increases costs without substantial benefits for most investors, while annual rebalancing allows excessive drift that can meaningfully impact performance. Quarterly rebalancing, typically on the first trading day of each quarter, provides an optimal balance.
Understanding the Indicator's Functionality
The All Weather Strategy Indicator operates as a comprehensive portfolio management system, providing multiple analytical layers that professional money managers typically reserve for institutional clients. This sophisticated tool transforms Ray Dalio's institutional-grade strategy into an accessible platform for individual investors, offering features that rival professional portfolio management software.
The indicator's core architecture consists of several interconnected modules that work seamlessly together to provide complete portfolio oversight. At its foundation lies a real-time portfolio simulation engine that tracks the exact value of each ETF position based on current market prices, eliminating the need for manual calculations or external spreadsheets.
DETAILED INDICATOR COMPONENTS AND FUNCTIONS
Portfolio Configuration Module
The portfolio setup begins with the Portfolio Configuration section, which establishes the fundamental parameters for strategy implementation. The Portfolio Capital input accepts values from $1,000 to $10,000,000, accommodating everyone from beginning investors to institutional clients. This input directly drives all subsequent calculations, determining exact share quantities and portfolio values throughout the implementation period.
The Portfolio Start Date function allows users to specify when they began implementing the All Weather Strategy, creating a clear demarcation point for performance tracking. This feature proves essential for investors who want to track their actual implementation against theoretical performance, providing realistic assessment of strategy effectiveness including timing differences and implementation costs.
Rebalancing Frequency settings offer two options: Monthly and Quarterly. While monthly rebalancing provides more precise allocation control, quarterly rebalancing typically proves more cost-effective for most investors due to reduced transaction costs. The indicator automatically detects the first trading day of each period, ensuring rebalancing occurs at optimal times regardless of weekends, holidays, or market closures.
The Rebalancing Threshold parameter, adjustable from 0.5% to 10%, determines when allocation drift triggers rebalancing recommendations. Conservative settings like 1-2% maintain tight allocation control but increase trading frequency, while wider thresholds like 3-5% reduce trading costs but allow greater allocation drift. This flexibility accommodates different risk tolerances and cost structures.
Visual Display System
The Show All Weather Calculator toggle controls the main dashboard visibility, allowing users to focus on chart visualization when detailed metrics aren't needed. When enabled, this comprehensive dashboard displays current portfolio value, individual ETF allocations, target versus actual weights, rebalancing status, and performance metrics in a professionally formatted table.
Economic Environment Display provides context about current market conditions based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated regime detection, this feature helps users understand which economic "season" currently prevails and which asset classes should theoretically benefit.
Rebalancing Signals illuminate when portfolio drift exceeds user-defined thresholds, highlighting specific ETFs that require adjustment. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency: green for balanced allocations, yellow for moderate drift, and red for significant deviations requiring immediate attention.
Advanced Label System
The rebalancing label system represents one of the indicator's most innovative features, providing three distinct detail levels to accommodate different user needs and experience levels. The "None" setting displays simple symbols marking portfolio start and rebalancing events without cluttering the chart with text. This minimal approach suits experienced investors who understand the implications of each symbol.
"Basic" label mode shows essential information including portfolio values at each rebalancing point, enabling quick assessment of strategy performance over time. These labels display "START $X" for portfolio initiation and "RBL $Y" for rebalancing events, providing clear performance tracking without overwhelming detail.
"Detailed" labels provide comprehensive trading instructions including exact buy and sell quantities for each ETF. These labels might display "RBL $125,000 BUY 15 SPY SELL 25 TLT BUY 8 IEF NO TRADES DJP SELL 12 SCHP" providing complete implementation guidance. This feature essentially transforms the indicator into a personal portfolio manager, eliminating guesswork about exact trades required.
Professional Color Themes
Eight professionally designed color themes adapt the indicator's appearance to different aesthetic preferences and market analysis styles. The "Gold" theme reflects traditional wealth management aesthetics, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional appearance. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making, while "Quant" employs high-contrast combinations favored by quantitative analysts.
"Ocean," "Fire," "Matrix," and "Arctic" themes provide distinctive visual identities for traders who prefer unique chart aesthetics. Each theme automatically adjusts for dark or light mode optimization, ensuring optimal readability across different TradingView configurations.
Real-Time Portfolio Tracking
The portfolio simulation engine continuously tracks five separate ETF positions: SPY for stocks, TLT for long-term bonds, IEF for intermediate-term bonds, DJP for commodities, and SCHP for TIPS. Each position's value updates in real-time based on current market prices, providing instant feedback about portfolio performance and allocation drift.
Current share calculations determine exact holdings based on the most recent rebalancing, while target shares reflect optimal allocation based on current portfolio value. Trade calculations show precisely how many shares to buy or sell during rebalancing, eliminating manual calculations and potential errors.
Performance Analytics Suite
The indicator's performance measurement capabilities rival professional portfolio analysis software. Sharpe ratio calculations incorporate current risk-free rates obtained from Treasury yield data, providing accurate risk-adjusted performance assessment. Volatility measurements use rolling periods to capture changing market conditions while maintaining statistical significance.
Portfolio return calculations track both absolute and relative performance, comparing the All Weather implementation against individual asset classes and benchmark indices. These metrics update continuously, providing real-time assessment of strategy effectiveness and implementation quality.
Data Quality Monitoring
Sophisticated data quality checks ensure reliable indicator operation across different market conditions and potential data interruptions. The system monitors all five ETF price feeds plus economic data sources, providing quality scores that alert users to potential data issues that might affect calculations.
When data quality degrades, the indicator automatically switches to fallback values or alternative data sources, maintaining functionality during temporary market data interruptions. This robust design ensures consistent operation even during volatile market conditions when data feeds occasionally experience disruptions.
Risk Management and Behavioral Considerations
Despite its sophisticated design, the All Weather Strategy faces behavioral challenges that have derailed countless well-intentioned investment plans. The strategy's conservative nature means it will underperform growth stocks during bull markets, potentially by substantial margins. Maintaining discipline during these periods requires understanding that the strategy optimizes for risk-adjusted returns over absolute returns.
Behavioral finance research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that investors feel losses approximately twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This loss aversion creates powerful psychological pressure to abandon defensive strategies during bull markets when aggressive portfolios appear more attractive. The All Weather Strategy's bond-heavy allocation will seem overly conservative when technology stocks double in value, as occurred repeatedly during the 2010s.
Conversely, the strategy's defensive characteristics provide psychological comfort during market stress. When stocks crash 30-50%, as they periodically do, the All Weather portfolio's modest losses feel manageable rather than catastrophic. This emotional stability enables investors to maintain their investment discipline when others capitulate, often at the worst possible times.
Rebalancing discipline presents another behavioral challenge. Selling winners to buy losers contradicts natural human tendencies but remains essential for the strategy's success. When stocks have outperformed bonds for several quarters, rebalancing requires selling high-performing stock positions to purchase seemingly stagnant bond positions. This action feels counterintuitive but captures the strategy's systematic approach to risk management.
Tax considerations add complexity for taxable accounts. Frequent rebalancing generates taxable events that can erode after-tax returns, particularly for high-income investors facing elevated capital gains rates. Tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs provide ideal vehicles for All Weather implementation, eliminating tax friction from rebalancing activities.
Capital Requirements and Cost Analysis
Comprehensive cost analysis reveals the capital requirements for effective All Weather implementation. Annual expenses include management fees for each ETF, transaction costs from rebalancing, and bid-ask spreads from trading less liquid securities.
ETF expense ratios vary significantly across asset classes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF charges 0.09% annually, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.20%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.15%, the Schwab US TIPS ETF charges 0.05%, and the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF charges 0.75%. Weighted by the All Weather allocations, total expense ratios average approximately 0.19% annually.
Transaction costs depend heavily on broker selection and account size. Premium brokers like Interactive Brokers charge $1-2 per trade, resulting in $20-40 annually for quarterly rebalancing. Discount brokers may charge higher per-trade fees but offer commission-free ETF trading for selected funds. Zero-commission brokers eliminate explicit trading costs but often impose wider bid-ask spreads that function as hidden fees.
Bid-ask spreads represent the difference between buying and selling prices for each security. Highly liquid ETFs like SPY maintain spreads of 1-2 basis points, while less liquid commodity ETFs may exhibit spreads of 5-10 basis points. These costs accumulate through rebalancing activities, typically totaling 10-15 basis points annually.
For a $100,000 portfolio, total annual costs including expense ratios, transaction fees, and spreads typically range from 0.35% to 0.45%, or $350-450 annually. These costs decline as a percentage of assets as portfolio size increases, reaching approximately 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $250,000.
Comparing costs to potential benefits reveals the strategy's value proposition. Historical analysis suggests the All Weather approach reduces portfolio volatility by 35-40% compared to stock-heavy allocations while maintaining competitive returns. This volatility reduction provides substantial value during market stress, potentially preventing behavioral mistakes that destroy long-term wealth.
Alternative Implementations and Customizations
While the original All Weather allocation provides an excellent starting point, investors may consider modifications based on personal circumstances, market conditions, or geographic considerations. International diversification represents one potential enhancement, adding exposure to developed and emerging market bonds and equities.
Geographic customization becomes important for non-US investors. European investors might replace US Treasury bonds with German Bunds or broader European government bond indices. Currency hedging decisions add complexity but may reduce volatility for investors whose spending occurs in non-dollar currencies.
Tax-location strategies optimize after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient assets in tax-advantaged accounts while holding tax-efficient assets in taxable accounts. TIPS and commodity ETFs generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates, making them candidates for retirement account placement. Stock ETFs generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, making them suitable for taxable accounts.
Some investors prefer implementing the bond allocation through individual Treasury securities rather than ETFs, eliminating management fees while gaining precise maturity control. Treasury auctions provide access to new securities without bid-ask spreads, though this approach requires more sophisticated portfolio management.
Factor-based implementations replace broad market ETFs with factor-tilted alternatives. Value-tilted stock ETFs, quality-focused bond ETFs, or momentum-based commodity indices may enhance returns while maintaining the All Weather framework's diversification benefits. However, these modifications introduce additional complexity and potential tracking error.
Conclusion: Embracing the Long Game
The All Weather Strategy represents more than an investment approach; it embodies a philosophy of financial resilience that prioritizes sustainable wealth building over speculative gains. In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by algorithmic trading, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency volatility, Dalio's methodical approach offers a refreshing alternative grounded in economic theory and historical evidence.
The strategy's greatest strength lies not in its potential for extraordinary returns, but in its capacity to deliver reasonable returns across diverse economic environments while protecting capital during market stress. This characteristic becomes increasingly valuable as investors approach or enter retirement, when portfolio preservation assumes greater importance than aggressive growth.
Implementation requires discipline, adequate capital, and realistic expectations. The strategy will underperform growth-oriented approaches during bull markets while providing superior downside protection during bear markets. Investors must embrace this trade-off consciously, understanding that the strategy optimizes for long-term wealth building rather than short-term performance.
The All Weather Strategy Indicator democratizes access to institutional-quality portfolio management, providing individual investors with tools previously available only to wealthy families and institutions. By automating allocation tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analysis, the indicator removes much of the complexity that has historically limited sophisticated strategy implementation.
For investors seeking a systematic, evidence-based approach to long-term wealth building, the All Weather Strategy provides a compelling framework. Its emphasis on diversification, risk management, and behavioral discipline aligns with the fundamental principles that have created lasting wealth throughout financial history. While the strategy may not generate headlines or inspire cocktail party conversations, it offers something more valuable: a reliable path toward financial security across all economic seasons.
As Dalio himself notes, "The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist, and they design their portfolios accordingly." The All Weather Strategy's enduring appeal lies in its rejection of this recency bias, instead embracing the uncertainty of markets while positioning for success regardless of which economic season unfolds.
STEP-BY-STEP INDICATOR SETUP GUIDE
Setting up the All Weather Strategy Indicator requires careful attention to each configuration parameter to ensure optimal implementation. This comprehensive setup guide walks through every setting and explains its impact on strategy performance.
Initial Setup Process
Begin by adding the indicator to your TradingView chart. Search for "Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy" in the indicator library and apply it to any chart. The indicator operates independently of the underlying chart symbol, drawing data directly from the five required ETFs regardless of which security appears on the chart.
Portfolio Configuration Settings
Start with the Portfolio Capital input, which drives all subsequent calculations. Enter your exact investable capital, ranging from $1,000 to $10,000,000. This input determines share quantities, trade recommendations, and performance calculations. Conservative recommendations suggest minimum capitals of $50,000 for basic implementation or $100,000 for optimal precision.
Select your Portfolio Start Date carefully, as this establishes the baseline for all performance calculations. Choose the date when you actually began implementing the All Weather Strategy, not when you first learned about it. This date should reflect when you first purchased ETFs according to the target allocation, creating realistic performance tracking.
Choose your Rebalancing Frequency based on your cost structure and precision preferences. Monthly rebalancing provides tighter allocation control but increases transaction costs. Quarterly rebalancing offers the optimal balance for most investors between allocation precision and cost control. The indicator automatically detects appropriate trading days regardless of your selection.
Set the Rebalancing Threshold based on your tolerance for allocation drift and transaction costs. Conservative investors preferring tight control should use 1-2% thresholds, while cost-conscious investors may prefer 3-5% thresholds. Lower thresholds maintain more precise allocations but trigger more frequent trading.
Display Configuration Options
Enable Show All Weather Calculator to display the comprehensive dashboard containing portfolio values, allocations, and performance metrics. This dashboard provides essential information for portfolio management and should remain enabled for most users.
Show Economic Environment displays current economic regime classification based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated models, this feature provides useful context for understanding current market conditions.
Show Rebalancing Signals highlights when portfolio allocations drift beyond your threshold settings. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency levels, helping prioritize rebalancing activities.
Advanced Label Customization
Configure Show Rebalancing Labels based on your need for chart annotations. These labels mark important portfolio events and can provide valuable historical context, though they may clutter charts during extended time periods.
Select appropriate Label Detail Levels based on your experience and information needs. "None" provides minimal symbols suitable for experienced users. "Basic" shows portfolio values at key events. "Detailed" provides complete trading instructions including exact share quantities for each ETF.
Appearance Customization
Choose Color Themes based on your aesthetic preferences and trading style. "Gold" reflects traditional wealth management appearance, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional styling. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making.
Enable Dark Mode Optimization if using TradingView's dark theme for optimal readability and contrast. This setting automatically adjusts all colors and transparency levels for the selected theme.
Set Main Line Width based on your chart resolution and visual preferences. Higher width values provide clearer allocation lines but may overwhelm smaller charts. Most users prefer width settings of 2-3 for optimal visibility.
Troubleshooting Common Setup Issues
If the indicator displays "Data not available" messages, verify that all five ETFs (SPY, TLT, IEF, DJP, SCHP) have valid price data on your selected timeframe. The indicator requires daily data availability for all components.
When rebalancing signals seem inconsistent, check your threshold settings and ensure sufficient time has passed since the last rebalancing event. The indicator only triggers signals on designated rebalancing days (first trading day of each period) when drift exceeds threshold levels.
If labels appear at unexpected chart locations, verify that your chart displays percentage values rather than price values. The indicator forces percentage formatting and 0-40% scaling for optimal allocation visualization.
COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND FURTHER READING
PRIMARY SOURCES AND RAY DALIO WORKS
Dalio, R. (2017). Principles: Life and work. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Dalio, R. (2018). A template for understanding big debt crises. Bridgewater Associates.
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Simon & Schuster.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES RESEARCH PAPERS
Jensen, G., Kertesz, A. & Prince, B. (2010). All Weather strategy: Bridgewater's approach to portfolio construction. Bridgewater Associates Research.
Prince, B. (2011). An in-depth look at the investment logic behind the All Weather strategy. Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations.
Bridgewater Associates. (2015). Risk parity in the context of larger portfolio construction. Institutional Research.
ACADEMIC RESEARCH ON RISK PARITY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International asset allocation with regime shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Bodie, Z. & Rosansky, V. I. (1980). Risk and return in commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(3), 27-39.
Campbell, J. Y. & Viceira, L. M. (2001). Who should buy long-term bonds? American Economic Review, 91(1), 99-127.
Clarke, R., De Silva, H. & Thorley, S. (2013). Risk parity, maximum diversification, and minimum variance: An analytic perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 39-53.
Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 25-46.
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing: A practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Black, F. & Litterman, R. (1992). Global portfolio optimization. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(5), 28-43.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION AND ETF ANALYSIS
Gastineau, G. L. (2010). The exchange-traded funds manual. 2nd ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Poterba, J. M. & Shoven, J. B. (2002). Exchange-traded funds: A new investment option for taxable investors. American Economic Review, 92(2), 422-427.
Israelsen, C. L. (2005). A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio. Journal of Asset Management, 5(6), 423-427.
ECONOMIC CYCLE ANALYSIS AND ASSET CLASS RESEARCH
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected returns: An investor's guide to harvesting market rewards. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering portfolio management: An unconventional approach to institutional investment. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press.
Siegel, J. J. (2014). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.
Stein, D. M. & DeMuth, P. (2003). Systematic withdrawal from retirement portfolios: The impact of asset allocation decisions on portfolio longevity. AAII Journal, 25(7), 8-12.
CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Asness, C. S., Frazzini, A. & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Leverage aversion and risk parity. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 47-59.
Roncalli, T. (2013). Introduction to risk parity and budgeting. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Ibbotson Associates. (2023). Stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation 2023 yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar.
PERIODICALS AND ONGOING RESEARCH
Journal of Portfolio Management - Quarterly publication featuring cutting-edge research on portfolio construction and risk management
Financial Analysts Journal - Bi-monthly publication of the CFA Institute with practical investment research
Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations - Regular market commentary and research from the creators of the All Weather Strategy
RECOMMENDED READING SEQUENCE
For investors new to the All Weather Strategy, begin with Dalio's "Principles" for philosophical foundation, then proceed to the Bridgewater research papers for technical details. Supplement with Markowitz's original portfolio theory work and behavioral finance literature from Kahneman and Tversky.
Intermediate students should focus on academic papers by Ang & Bekaert on regime shifts, Clarke et al. on risk parity methods, and Ilmanen's comprehensive analysis of expected returns across asset classes.
Advanced practitioners will benefit from Roncalli's technical treatment of risk parity mathematics, Asness et al.'s academic critique of leverage aversion, and ongoing research in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
Trading Report Generator from CSVMany people use the Trading Panel. Unfortunately, it doesn't have a Performance Report. However, TradingView has strategies, and they have a Performance Report :-D
What if we combine the first and second? It's easy!
This script is a special strategy that parses transactions in csv format from Paper Trading (and it will also work for other brokers) and “plays” them. As a result, we get a Performance Report for a specific instrument based on our real trades in Paper or another broker.
How to use it :
First, we need to get a CSV file with transactions. To do this, go to the Trading Panel and connect the desired broker. Select the History tab, then the Filled sub-tab, and configure the columns there, leaving only: Side, Qty, Fill Price, Closing Time. After that, open the Export data dialog, select History, and click Export. Open the downloaded CSV file in a regular text editor (Notepad or similar). It will contain a text like this:
Symbol,Side,Qty,Fill Price,Closing Time
FX:EURUSD,Buy,1000,1.0938700000000001,2023-04-05 14:29:23
COINBASE:ETHUSD,Sell,1,1332.05,2023-01-11 17:41:33
CME_MINI:ESH2023,Sell,1,3961.75,2023-01-11 17:30:40
CME_MINI:ESH2023,Buy,1,3956.75,2023-01-11 17:08:53
Next select all the text (Ctrl+A) and copy it to the clipboard.
Now apply the "Trading Report Generator from CSV" strategy to the chart with the desired symbol and TF, open the settings/input dialog, paste the contents of the clipboard into the single text input field of the strategy, and click Ok.
That's it.
In the Strategy Tester, we see a detailed Performance Report based on our real transactions.
P.S. The CSV file may contain transactions for different instruments, for example, you may have transactions for CRYPTO:BTCUSD and NASDAQ:AAPL. To view the report is based on CRYPTO:BTCUSD trades, simply change the symbol on the chart to CRYPTO:BTCUSD. To view the report is based on NASDAQ:AAPL trades, simply change the symbol on the chart to NASDAQ:AAPL. No changes to the strategy are required.
How it works :
At the beginning of the calculation, we parse the csv once, create trade objects (Trade) and sort them in chronological order. Next, on each bar, we check whether we have trades for the time period of the next bar. If there are, we place a limit order for each trade, with limit price == Fill Price of the trade. Here, we assume that if the trade is real, its execution price will be within the bar range, and the Pine strategy engine will execute this order at the specified limit price.
Extended Altman Z-Score ModelThe Extended Altman Z-Score Model represents a significant advancement in financial analysis and risk assessment, building upon the foundational work of Altman (1968) while incorporating contemporary data analytics approaches as proposed by Fung (2023). This sophisticated model enhances the traditional bankruptcy prediction framework by integrating additional financial metrics and modern analytical techniques, offering a more comprehensive approach to identifying financially distressed companies.
The model's architecture is built upon two distinct yet complementary scoring systems. The traditional Altman Z-Score components form the foundation, including Working Capital to Total Assets (X1), which measures a company's short-term liquidity and operational efficiency. Retained Earnings to Total Assets (X2) provides insight into the company's historical profitability and reinvestment capacity. EBIT to Total Assets (X3) evaluates operational efficiency and earning power, while Market Value of Equity to Total Liabilities (X4) assesses market perception and leverage. Sales to Total Assets (X5) measures asset utilization efficiency.
These traditional components are enhanced by extended metrics introduced by Fung (2023), which provide additional layers of financial analysis. The Cash Ratio (X6) offers insights into immediate liquidity and financial flexibility. Asset Composition (X7) evaluates the quality and efficiency of asset utilization, particularly in working capital management. The Debt Ratio (X8) provides a comprehensive view of financial leverage and long-term solvency, while the Net Profit Margin (X9) measures overall profitability and operational efficiency.
The scoring system employs a sophisticated formula that combines the traditional Z-Score with weighted additional metrics. The traditional Z-Score is calculated as 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + 1.0X5, while the extended components are weighted as follows: 0.5 * X6 + 0.3 * X7 - 0.4 * X8 + 0.6 * X9. This enhanced scoring mechanism provides a more nuanced assessment of a company's financial health, incorporating both traditional bankruptcy prediction metrics and modern financial analysis approaches.
The model categorizes companies into three distinct risk zones, each with specific implications for financial stability and required actions. The Safe Zone (Score > 3.0) indicates strong financial health, with low probability of financial distress and suitability for conservative investment strategies. The Grey Zone (Score between 1.8 and 3.0) suggests moderate risk, requiring careful monitoring and additional fundamental analysis. The Danger Zone (Score < 1.8) signals high risk of financial distress, necessitating immediate attention and potential risk mitigation strategies.
In practical application, the model requires systematic and regular monitoring. Users should track the Extended Score on a quarterly basis, monitoring changes in individual components and comparing results with industry benchmarks. Component analysis should be conducted separately, identifying specific areas of concern and tracking trends in individual metrics. The model's effectiveness is significantly enhanced when used in conjunction with other financial metrics and when considering industry-specific factors and macroeconomic conditions.
The technical implementation in Pine Script v6 provides real-time calculations of both traditional and extended scores, offering visual representation of risk zones, detailed component breakdowns, and warning signals for critical values. The indicator automatically updates with new financial data and provides clear visual cues for different risk levels, making it accessible to both technical and fundamental analysts.
However, as noted by Fung (2023), the model has certain limitations that users should consider. It may not fully account for industry-specific factors, requires regular updates of financial data, and should be used in conjunction with other analysis tools. The model's effectiveness can be enhanced by incorporating industry-specific benchmarks and considering macroeconomic factors that may affect financial performance.
References:
Altman, E.I. (1968) 'Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy', The Journal of Finance, 23(4), pp. 589-609.
Li, L., Wang, B., Wu, Y. and Yang, Q., 2020. Identifying poorly performing listed firms using data analytics. Journal of Business Research, 109, pp.1–12. doi.org
InteliTrend StableFXThis appealing little tool is a derivation of the CCI indicator and was developed in 2023 by Mario Jemic for MT4. It has additional settings that the conventional CCI indicator does not have. Furthermore, it is combined with moving averages to create signals. This is lines crossing confirmation type indicator. Look for the orange line to cross the moving average (red line).
Differences from the original:
1. Though it was coded in 2023, the original is for people who are still running Windows 95 and would like to do technical analysis on MT4.
2. The original had an additional stochastic moving average that was not particularly useful and made the indicator busy.
3. All of the moving average options have been ported over with 2 additional choices. (Hull and Arnaud Legoux added).
4. The default options are set as the tweaks that were discovered by StoneHill Forex (stonehillforex.com). You can also download the original from them.
I will probably add a few more features and options in the near future such as visuals for crossovers etc.
Enjoy!
d1g1talshad0w
BTC Energy + HR + Longs + M2
BTC Energy Ratio + Hashrate + Longs + M2
The #1 Bitcoin Macro Weapon on TradingView 🚀🔥
If you’re tired of getting chopped by fakeouts, ETF noise, and Twitter hopium — this is the one chart that finally puts you on the right side of every major move.
What you’re looking at:
Orange line → Bitcoin priced in real-world mining energy (Oil × Gas + Uranium × Coal) × 1000
→ The true fundamental floor of BTC
Blue line → Scaled hashrate trend (miner strength & capex lag)
Green line → Bitfinex longs EMA (leveraged bull sentiment)
Purple line → Global M2 money supply (US+EU+CN+JP) with 10-week lead (the liquidity wave BTC rides)
Why this indicator prints money:
Most tools react to price.
This one predicts where price is going based on energy, miners, leverage, and liquidity — the only four things that actually drive Bitcoin long-term.
It has nailed:
2022 bottom at ~924 📉
2024 breakout above 12,336 🚀
2025 top at 17,280 🏔️
And right now it’s flashing generational accumulation at ~11,500 (Nov 2025)
13 permanent levels with right-side labels — no guessing what anything means:
20,000 → 2021 Bull ATH
17,280 → 2025 ATH
15,000 → 2024 High Resist
14,000 → Overvalued Zone
13,000 → 2024 Breakout
12,336 → Bull/Bear Line (the most important level)
12,000 → 2024 Volume POC
10,930 → Key Support 2024
9,800 → Strong Buy Fib
8,000 → Deep Support 2023
6,000 → 2021 Mid-Cycle
4,500 → 2023 Accum Low
924 → 2022 Bear Low
Live dashboard tells you exactly what to do — no thinking required:
Current ratio (updates live)
Hashrate + 24H %
Longs trend
Risk Mode → Orange vs Hashrate (RISK ON / RISK OFF)
180-day correlation
RSI
13-tier Zone + SIGNAL (STRONG BUY / ACCUMULATE / HOLD / DISTRIBUTE / EXTREME SELL)
Dead-simple rules that actually work:
Weekly timeframe = cleanest view
Blue peaking + orange holding support → miner pain = next leg up
Green spiking + orange failing → overcrowded longs = trim
Purple rising → liquidity coming in = ride the wave
Risk Mode = RISK OFF → price is cheap vs miners → buy
Set these 3 alerts and walk away:
Ratio > 12,336 → Bull confirmed → add
Ratio > 14,000 → Start scaling out
Ratio < 9,800 → Generational buy → back up the truck
No repainting • Fully open-source • Forced daily data • Works on any TF
Energy is the only real backing Bitcoin has.
Hashrate lag is the best leading indicator.
Longs show greed.
M2 is the tide.
This chart combines all four — and right now it’s screaming ACCUMULATE.
Load it. Trust it.
Stop trading hope. Start trading reality.
DYOR • NFA • For entertainment purposes only 😎
#bitcoin #macro #energy #hashrate #m2 #cycle #riskon #riskoff
Small Business Economic Conditions - Statistical Analysis ModelThe Small Business Economic Conditions Statistical Analysis Model (SBO-SAM) represents an econometric approach to measuring and analyzing the economic health of small business enterprises through multi-dimensional factor analysis and statistical methodologies. This indicator synthesizes eight fundamental economic components into a composite index that provides real-time assessment of small business operating conditions with statistical rigor. The model employs Z-score standardization, variance-weighted aggregation, higher-order moment analysis, and regime-switching detection to deliver comprehensive insights into small business economic conditions with statistical confidence intervals and multi-language accessibility.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Foundation
The development of quantitative models for assessing small business economic conditions has gained significant importance in contemporary financial analysis, particularly given the critical role small enterprises play in economic development and employment generation. Small businesses, typically defined as enterprises with fewer than 500 employees according to the U.S. Small Business Administration, constitute approximately 99.9% of all businesses in the United States and employ nearly half of the private workforce (U.S. Small Business Administration, 2024).
The theoretical framework underlying the SBO-SAM model draws extensively from established academic research in small business economics and quantitative finance. The foundational understanding of key drivers affecting small business performance builds upon the seminal work of Dunkelberg and Wade (2023) in their analysis of small business economic trends through the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Economic Trends survey. Their research established the critical importance of optimism, hiring plans, capital expenditure intentions, and credit availability as primary determinants of small business performance.
The model incorporates insights from Federal Reserve Board research, particularly the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (Federal Reserve Board, 2024), which demonstrates the critical importance of credit market conditions in small business operations. This research consistently shows that small businesses face disproportionate challenges during periods of credit tightening, as they typically lack access to capital markets and rely heavily on bank financing.
The statistical methodology employed in this model follows the econometric principles established by Hamilton (1989) in his work on regime-switching models and time series analysis. Hamilton's framework provides the theoretical foundation for identifying different economic regimes and understanding how economic relationships may vary across different market conditions. The variance-weighted aggregation technique draws from modern portfolio theory as developed by Markowitz (1952) and later refined by Sharpe (1964), applying these concepts to economic indicator construction rather than traditional asset allocation.
Additional theoretical support comes from the work of Engle and Granger (1987) on cointegration analysis, which provides the statistical framework for combining multiple time series while maintaining long-term equilibrium relationships. The model also incorporates insights from behavioral economics research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) on prospect theory, recognizing that small business decision-making may exhibit systematic biases that affect economic outcomes.
2. Model Architecture and Component Structure
The SBO-SAM model employs eight orthogonalized economic factors that collectively capture the multifaceted nature of small business operating conditions. Each component is normalized using Z-score standardization with a rolling 252-day window, representing approximately one business year of trading data. This approach ensures statistical consistency across different market regimes and economic cycles, following the methodology established by Tsay (2010) in his treatment of financial time series analysis.
2.1 Small Cap Relative Performance Component
The first component measures the performance of the Russell 2000 index relative to the S&P 500, capturing the market-based assessment of small business equity valuations. This component reflects investor sentiment toward smaller enterprises and provides a forward-looking perspective on small business prospects. The theoretical justification for this component stems from the efficient market hypothesis as formulated by Fama (1970), which suggests that stock prices incorporate all available information about future prospects.
The calculation employs a 20-day rate of change with exponential smoothing to reduce noise while preserving signal integrity. The mathematical formulation is:
Small_Cap_Performance = (Russell_2000_t / S&P_500_t) / (Russell_2000_{t-20} / S&P_500_{t-20}) - 1
This relative performance measure eliminates market-wide effects and isolates the specific performance differential between small and large capitalization stocks, providing a pure measure of small business market sentiment.
2.2 Credit Market Conditions Component
Credit Market Conditions constitute the second component, incorporating commercial lending volumes and credit spread dynamics. This factor recognizes that small businesses are particularly sensitive to credit availability and borrowing costs, as established in numerous Federal Reserve studies (Bernanke and Gertler, 1995). Small businesses typically face higher borrowing costs and more stringent lending standards compared to larger enterprises, making credit conditions a critical determinant of their operating environment.
The model calculates credit spreads using high-yield bond ETFs relative to Treasury securities, providing a market-based measure of credit risk premiums that directly affect small business borrowing costs. The component also incorporates commercial and industrial loan growth data from the Federal Reserve's H.8 statistical release, which provides direct evidence of lending activity to businesses.
The mathematical specification combines these elements as:
Credit_Conditions = α₁ × (HYG_t / TLT_t) + α₂ × C&I_Loan_Growth_t
where HYG represents high-yield corporate bond ETF prices, TLT represents long-term Treasury ETF prices, and C&I_Loan_Growth represents the rate of change in commercial and industrial loans outstanding.
2.3 Labor Market Dynamics Component
The Labor Market Dynamics component captures employment cost pressures and labor availability metrics through the relationship between job openings and unemployment claims. This factor acknowledges that labor market tightness significantly impacts small business operations, as these enterprises typically have less flexibility in wage negotiations and face greater challenges in attracting and retaining talent during periods of low unemployment.
The theoretical foundation for this component draws from search and matching theory as developed by Mortensen and Pissarides (1994), which explains how labor market frictions affect employment dynamics. Small businesses often face higher search costs and longer hiring processes, making them particularly sensitive to labor market conditions.
The component is calculated as:
Labor_Tightness = Job_Openings_t / (Unemployment_Claims_t × 52)
This ratio provides a measure of labor market tightness, with higher values indicating greater difficulty in finding workers and potential wage pressures.
2.4 Consumer Demand Strength Component
Consumer Demand Strength represents the fourth component, combining consumer sentiment data with retail sales growth rates. Small businesses are disproportionately affected by consumer spending patterns, making this component crucial for assessing their operating environment. The theoretical justification comes from the permanent income hypothesis developed by Friedman (1957), which explains how consumer spending responds to both current conditions and future expectations.
The model weights consumer confidence and actual spending data to provide both forward-looking sentiment and contemporaneous demand indicators. The specification is:
Demand_Strength = β₁ × Consumer_Sentiment_t + β₂ × Retail_Sales_Growth_t
where β₁ and β₂ are determined through principal component analysis to maximize the explanatory power of the combined measure.
2.5 Input Cost Pressures Component
Input Cost Pressures form the fifth component, utilizing producer price index data to capture inflationary pressures on small business operations. This component is inversely weighted, recognizing that rising input costs negatively impact small business profitability and operating conditions. Small businesses typically have limited pricing power and face challenges in passing through cost increases to customers, making them particularly vulnerable to input cost inflation.
The theoretical foundation draws from cost-push inflation theory as described by Gordon (1988), which explains how supply-side price pressures affect business operations. The model employs a 90-day rate of change to capture medium-term cost trends while filtering out short-term volatility:
Cost_Pressure = -1 × (PPI_t / PPI_{t-90} - 1)
The negative weighting reflects the inverse relationship between input costs and business conditions.
2.6 Monetary Policy Impact Component
Monetary Policy Impact represents the sixth component, incorporating federal funds rates and yield curve dynamics. Small businesses are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes due to their higher reliance on variable-rate financing and limited access to capital markets. The theoretical foundation comes from monetary transmission mechanism theory as developed by Bernanke and Blinder (1992), which explains how monetary policy affects different segments of the economy.
The model calculates the absolute deviation of federal funds rates from a neutral 2% level, recognizing that both extremely low and high rates can create operational challenges for small enterprises. The yield curve component captures the shape of the term structure, which affects both borrowing costs and economic expectations:
Monetary_Impact = γ₁ × |Fed_Funds_Rate_t - 2.0| + γ₂ × (10Y_Yield_t - 2Y_Yield_t)
2.7 Currency Valuation Effects Component
Currency Valuation Effects constitute the seventh component, measuring the impact of US Dollar strength on small business competitiveness. A stronger dollar can benefit businesses with significant import components while disadvantaging exporters. The model employs Dollar Index volatility as a proxy for currency-related uncertainty that affects small business planning and operations.
The theoretical foundation draws from international trade theory and the work of Krugman (1987) on exchange rate effects on different business segments. Small businesses often lack hedging capabilities, making them more vulnerable to currency fluctuations:
Currency_Impact = -1 × DXY_Volatility_t
2.8 Regional Banking Health Component
The eighth and final component, Regional Banking Health, assesses the relative performance of regional banks compared to large financial institutions. Regional banks traditionally serve as primary lenders to small businesses, making their health a critical factor in small business credit availability and overall operating conditions.
This component draws from the literature on relationship banking as developed by Boot (2000), which demonstrates the importance of bank-borrower relationships, particularly for small enterprises. The calculation compares regional bank performance to large financial institutions:
Banking_Health = (Regional_Banks_Index_t / Large_Banks_Index_t) - 1
3. Statistical Methodology and Advanced Analytics
The model employs statistical techniques to ensure robustness and reliability. Z-score normalization is applied to each component using rolling 252-day windows, providing standardized measures that remain consistent across different time periods and market conditions. This approach follows the methodology established by Engle and Granger (1987) in their cointegration analysis framework.
3.1 Variance-Weighted Aggregation
The composite index calculation utilizes variance-weighted aggregation, where component weights are determined by the inverse of their historical variance. This approach, derived from modern portfolio theory, ensures that more stable components receive higher weights while reducing the impact of highly volatile factors. The mathematical formulation follows the principle that optimal weights are inversely proportional to variance, maximizing the signal-to-noise ratio of the composite indicator.
The weight for component i is calculated as:
w_i = (1/σᵢ²) / Σⱼ(1/σⱼ²)
where σᵢ² represents the variance of component i over the lookback period.
3.2 Higher-Order Moment Analysis
Higher-order moment analysis extends beyond traditional mean and variance calculations to include skewness and kurtosis measurements. Skewness provides insight into the asymmetry of the sentiment distribution, while kurtosis measures the tail behavior and potential for extreme events. These metrics offer valuable information about the underlying distribution characteristics and potential regime changes.
Skewness is calculated as:
Skewness = E / σ³
Kurtosis is calculated as:
Kurtosis = E / σ⁴ - 3
where μ represents the mean and σ represents the standard deviation of the distribution.
3.3 Regime-Switching Detection
The model incorporates regime-switching detection capabilities based on the Hamilton (1989) framework. This allows for identification of different economic regimes characterized by distinct statistical properties. The regime classification employs percentile-based thresholds:
- Regime 3 (Very High): Percentile rank > 80
- Regime 2 (High): Percentile rank 60-80
- Regime 1 (Moderate High): Percentile rank 50-60
- Regime 0 (Neutral): Percentile rank 40-50
- Regime -1 (Moderate Low): Percentile rank 30-40
- Regime -2 (Low): Percentile rank 20-30
- Regime -3 (Very Low): Percentile rank < 20
3.4 Information Theory Applications
The model incorporates information theory concepts, specifically Shannon entropy measurement, to assess the information content of the sentiment distribution. Shannon entropy, as developed by Shannon (1948), provides a measure of the uncertainty or information content in a probability distribution:
H(X) = -Σᵢ p(xᵢ) log₂ p(xᵢ)
Higher entropy values indicate greater unpredictability and information content in the sentiment series.
3.5 Long-Term Memory Analysis
The Hurst exponent calculation provides insight into the long-term memory characteristics of the sentiment series. Originally developed by Hurst (1951) for analyzing Nile River flow patterns, this measure has found extensive application in financial time series analysis. The Hurst exponent H is calculated using the rescaled range statistic:
H = log(R/S) / log(T)
where R/S represents the rescaled range and T represents the time period. Values of H > 0.5 indicate long-term positive autocorrelation (persistence), while H < 0.5 indicates mean-reverting behavior.
3.6 Structural Break Detection
The model employs Chow test approximation for structural break detection, based on the methodology developed by Chow (1960). This technique identifies potential structural changes in the underlying relationships by comparing the stability of regression parameters across different time periods:
Chow_Statistic = (RSS_restricted - RSS_unrestricted) / RSS_unrestricted × (n-2k)/k
where RSS represents residual sum of squares, n represents sample size, and k represents the number of parameters.
4. Implementation Parameters and Configuration
4.1 Language Selection Parameters
The model provides comprehensive multi-language support across five languages: English, German (Deutsch), Spanish (Español), French (Français), and Japanese (日本語). This feature enhances accessibility for international users and ensures cultural appropriateness in terminology usage. The language selection affects all internal displays, statistical classifications, and alert messages while maintaining consistency in underlying calculations.
4.2 Model Configuration Parameters
Calculation Method: Users can select from four aggregation methodologies:
- Equal-Weighted: All components receive identical weights
- Variance-Weighted: Components weighted inversely to their historical variance
- Principal Component: Weights determined through principal component analysis
- Dynamic: Adaptive weighting based on recent performance
Sector Specification: The model allows for sector-specific calibration:
- General: Broad-based small business assessment
- Retail: Emphasis on consumer demand and seasonal factors
- Manufacturing: Enhanced weighting of input costs and currency effects
- Services: Focus on labor market dynamics and consumer demand
- Construction: Emphasis on credit conditions and monetary policy
Lookback Period: Statistical analysis window ranging from 126 to 504 trading days, with 252 days (one business year) as the optimal default based on academic research.
Smoothing Period: Exponential moving average period from 1 to 21 days, with 5 days providing optimal noise reduction while preserving signal integrity.
4.3 Statistical Threshold Parameters
Upper Statistical Boundary: Configurable threshold between 60-80 (default 70) representing the upper significance level for regime classification.
Lower Statistical Boundary: Configurable threshold between 20-40 (default 30) representing the lower significance level for regime classification.
Statistical Significance Level (α): Alpha level for statistical tests, configurable between 0.01-0.10 with 0.05 as the standard academic default.
4.4 Display and Visualization Parameters
Color Theme Selection: Eight professional color schemes optimized for different user preferences and accessibility requirements:
- Gold: Traditional financial industry colors
- EdgeTools: Professional blue-gray scheme
- Behavioral: Psychology-based color mapping
- Quant: Value-based quantitative color scheme
- Ocean: Blue-green maritime theme
- Fire: Warm red-orange theme
- Matrix: Green-black technology theme
- Arctic: Cool blue-white theme
Dark Mode Optimization: Automatic color adjustment for dark chart backgrounds, ensuring optimal readability across different viewing conditions.
Line Width Configuration: Main index line thickness adjustable from 1-5 pixels for optimal visibility.
Background Intensity: Transparency control for statistical regime backgrounds, adjustable from 90-99% for subtle visual enhancement without distraction.
4.5 Alert System Configuration
Alert Frequency Options: Three frequency settings to match different trading styles:
- Once Per Bar: Single alert per bar formation
- Once Per Bar Close: Alert only on confirmed bar close
- All: Continuous alerts for real-time monitoring
Statistical Extreme Alerts: Notifications when the index reaches 99% confidence levels (Z-score > 2.576 or < -2.576).
Regime Transition Alerts: Notifications when statistical boundaries are crossed, indicating potential regime changes.
5. Practical Application and Interpretation Guidelines
5.1 Index Interpretation Framework
The SBO-SAM index operates on a 0-100 scale with statistical normalization ensuring consistent interpretation across different time periods and market conditions. Values above 70 indicate statistically elevated small business conditions, suggesting favorable operating environment with potential for expansion and growth. Values below 30 indicate statistically reduced conditions, suggesting challenging operating environment with potential constraints on business activity.
The median reference line at 50 represents the long-term equilibrium level, with deviations providing insight into cyclical conditions relative to historical norms. The statistical confidence bands at 95% levels (approximately ±2 standard deviations) help identify when conditions reach statistically significant extremes.
5.2 Regime Classification System
The model employs a seven-level regime classification system based on percentile rankings:
Very High Regime (P80+): Exceptional small business conditions, typically associated with strong economic growth, easy credit availability, and favorable regulatory environment. Historical analysis suggests these periods often precede economic peaks and may warrant caution regarding sustainability.
High Regime (P60-80): Above-average conditions supporting business expansion and investment. These periods typically feature moderate growth, stable credit conditions, and positive consumer sentiment.
Moderate High Regime (P50-60): Slightly above-normal conditions with mixed signals. Careful monitoring of individual components helps identify emerging trends.
Neutral Regime (P40-50): Balanced conditions near long-term equilibrium. These periods often represent transition phases between different economic cycles.
Moderate Low Regime (P30-40): Slightly below-normal conditions with emerging headwinds. Early warning signals may appear in credit conditions or consumer demand.
Low Regime (P20-30): Below-average conditions suggesting challenging operating environment. Businesses may face constraints on growth and expansion.
Very Low Regime (P0-20): Severely constrained conditions, typically associated with economic recessions or financial crises. These periods often present opportunities for contrarian positioning.
5.3 Component Analysis and Diagnostics
Individual component analysis provides valuable diagnostic information about the underlying drivers of overall conditions. Divergences between components can signal emerging trends or structural changes in the economy.
Credit-Labor Divergence: When credit conditions improve while labor markets tighten, this may indicate early-stage economic acceleration with potential wage pressures.
Demand-Cost Divergence: Strong consumer demand coupled with rising input costs suggests inflationary pressures that may constrain small business margins.
Market-Fundamental Divergence: Disconnection between small-cap equity performance and fundamental conditions may indicate market inefficiencies or changing investor sentiment.
5.4 Temporal Analysis and Trend Identification
The model provides multiple temporal perspectives through momentum analysis, rate of change calculations, and trend decomposition. The 20-day momentum indicator helps identify short-term directional changes, while the Hodrick-Prescott filter approximation separates cyclical components from long-term trends.
Acceleration analysis through second-order momentum calculations provides early warning signals for potential trend reversals. Positive acceleration during declining conditions may indicate approaching inflection points, while negative acceleration during improving conditions may suggest momentum loss.
5.5 Statistical Confidence and Uncertainty Quantification
The model provides comprehensive uncertainty quantification through confidence intervals, volatility measures, and regime stability analysis. The 95% confidence bands help users understand the statistical significance of current readings and identify when conditions reach historically extreme levels.
Volatility analysis provides insight into the stability of current conditions, with higher volatility indicating greater uncertainty and potential for rapid changes. The regime stability measure, calculated as the inverse of volatility, helps assess the sustainability of current conditions.
6. Risk Management and Limitations
6.1 Model Limitations and Assumptions
The SBO-SAM model operates under several important assumptions that users must understand for proper interpretation. The model assumes that historical relationships between economic variables remain stable over time, though the regime-switching framework helps accommodate some structural changes. The 252-day lookback period provides reasonable statistical power while maintaining sensitivity to changing conditions, but may not capture longer-term structural shifts.
The model's reliance on publicly available economic data introduces inherent lags in some components, particularly those based on government statistics. Users should consider these timing differences when interpreting real-time conditions. Additionally, the model's focus on quantitative factors may not fully capture qualitative factors such as regulatory changes, geopolitical events, or technological disruptions that could significantly impact small business conditions.
The model's timeframe restrictions ensure statistical validity by preventing application to intraday periods where the underlying economic relationships may be distorted by market microstructure effects, trading noise, and temporal misalignment with the fundamental data sources. Users must utilize daily or longer timeframes to ensure the model's statistical foundations remain valid and interpretable.
6.2 Data Quality and Reliability Considerations
The model's accuracy depends heavily on the quality and availability of underlying economic data. Market-based components such as equity indices and bond prices provide real-time information but may be subject to short-term volatility unrelated to fundamental conditions. Economic statistics provide more stable fundamental information but may be subject to revisions and reporting delays.
Users should be aware that extreme market conditions may temporarily distort some components, particularly those based on financial market data. The model's statistical normalization helps mitigate these effects, but users should exercise additional caution during periods of market stress or unusual volatility.
6.3 Interpretation Caveats and Best Practices
The SBO-SAM model provides statistical analysis and should not be interpreted as investment advice or predictive forecasting. The model's output represents an assessment of current conditions based on historical relationships and may not accurately predict future outcomes. Users should combine the model's insights with other analytical tools and fundamental analysis for comprehensive decision-making.
The model's regime classifications are based on historical percentile rankings and may not fully capture the unique characteristics of current economic conditions. Users should consider the broader economic context and potential structural changes when interpreting regime classifications.
7. Academic References and Bibliography
Bernanke, B. S., & Blinder, A. S. (1992). The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission. American Economic Review, 82(4), 901-921.
Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27-48.
Boot, A. W. A. (2000). Relationship Banking: What Do We Know? Journal of Financial Intermediation, 9(1), 7-25.
Chow, G. C. (1960). Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions. Econometrica, 28(3), 591-605.
Dunkelberg, W. C., & Wade, H. (2023). NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation, Washington, D.C.
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
Federal Reserve Board. (2024). Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C.
Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Gordon, R. J. (1988). The Role of Wages in the Inflation Process. American Economic Review, 78(2), 276-283.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
Hurst, H. E. (1951). Long-term Storage Capacity of Reservoirs. Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers, 116(1), 770-799.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Krugman, P. (1987). Pricing to Market When the Exchange Rate Changes. In S. W. Arndt & J. D. Richardson (Eds.), Real-Financial Linkages among Open Economies (pp. 49-70). MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Mortensen, D. T., & Pissarides, C. A. (1994). Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment. Review of Economic Studies, 61(3), 397-415.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A Mathematical Theory of Communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Tsay, R. S. (2010). Analysis of Financial Time Series (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ.
U.S. Small Business Administration. (2024). Small Business Profile. Office of Advocacy, Washington, D.C.
8. Technical Implementation Notes
The SBO-SAM model is implemented in Pine Script version 6 for the TradingView platform, ensuring compatibility with modern charting and analysis tools. The implementation follows best practices for financial indicator development, including proper error handling, data validation, and performance optimization.
The model includes comprehensive timeframe validation to ensure statistical accuracy and reliability. The indicator operates exclusively on daily (1D) timeframes or higher, including weekly (1W), monthly (1M), and longer periods. This restriction ensures that the statistical analysis maintains appropriate temporal resolution for the underlying economic data sources, which are primarily reported on daily or longer intervals.
When users attempt to apply the model to intraday timeframes (such as 1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, or 12-hour charts), the system displays a comprehensive error message in the user's selected language and prevents execution. This safeguard protects users from potentially misleading results that could occur when applying daily-based economic analysis to shorter timeframes where the underlying data relationships may not hold.
The model's statistical calculations are performed using vectorized operations where possible to ensure computational efficiency. The multi-language support system employs Unicode character encoding to ensure proper display of international characters across different platforms and devices.
The alert system utilizes TradingView's native alert functionality, providing users with flexible notification options including email, SMS, and webhook integrations. The alert messages include comprehensive statistical information to support informed decision-making.
The model's visualization system employs professional color schemes designed for optimal readability across different chart backgrounds and display devices. The system includes dynamic color transitions based on momentum and volatility, professional glow effects for enhanced line visibility, and transparency controls that allow users to customize the visual intensity to match their preferences and analytical requirements. The clean confidence band implementation provides clear statistical boundaries without visual distractions, maintaining focus on the analytical content.
Yearly History Calendar-Aligned Price up to 10 Years)Overview
This indicator helps traders compare historical price patterns from the past 10 calendar years with the current price action. It overlays translucent lines (polylines) for each year’s price data on the same calendar dates, providing a visual reference for recurring trends. A dynamic table at the top of the chart summarizes the active years, their price sources, and history retention settings.
Key Features
Historical Projections
Displays price data from the last 10 years (e.g., January 5, 2023 vs. January 5, 2024).
Price Source Selection
Choose from Open, Low, High, Close, or HL2 ((High + Low)/2) for historical alignment.
The selected source is shown in the legend table.
Bulk Control Toggles
Show All Years : Display all 10 years simultaneously.
Keep History for All : Preserve historical lines on year transitions.
Hide History for All : Automatically delete old lines to update with current data.
Individual Year Settings
Toggle visibility for each year (-1 to -10) independently.
Customize color and line width for each year.
Control whether to keep or delete historical lines for specific years.
Visual Alignment Aids
Vertical lines mark yearly transitions for reference.
Polylines are semi-transparent for clarity.
Dynamic Legend Table
Shows active years, their price sources, and history status (On/Off).
Updates automatically when settings change.
How to Use
Configure Settings
Projection Years : Select how many years to display (1–10).
Price Source : Choose Open, Low, High, Close, or HL2 for historical alignment.
History Precision : Set granularity (Daily, 60m, or 15m).
Daily (D) is recommended for long-term analysis (covers 10 years).
60m/15m provides finer precision but may only cover 1–3 years due to data limits.
Adjust Visibility & History
Show Year -X : Enable/disable specific years for comparison.
Keep History for Year -X : Choose whether to retain historical lines or delete them on new year transitions.
Bulk Controls
Show All Years : Display all 10 years at once (overrides individual toggles).
Keep History for All / Hide History for All : Globally enable/disable history retention for all years.
Customize Appearance
Line Width : Adjust polyline thickness for better visibility.
Colors : Assign unique colors to each year for easy identification.
Interpret the Legend Table
The table shows:
Year : Label (e.g., "Year -1").
Source : The selected price type (e.g., "Close", "HL2").
Keep History : Indicates whether lines are preserved (On) or deleted (Off).
Tips for Optimal Use
Use Daily Timeframes for Long-Term Analysis :
Daily (1D) allows 10+ years of data. Smaller timeframes (60m/15m) may have limited historical coverage.
Compare Recurring Patterns :
Look for overlaps between historical polylines and current price to identify potential support/resistance levels.
Customize Colors & Widths :
Use contrasting colors for years you want to highlight. Adjust line widths to avoid clutter.
Leverage Global Toggles :
Enable Show All Years for a quick overview. Use Keep History for All to maintain continuity across transitions.
Example Workflow
Set Up :
Select Projection Years = 5.
Choose Price Source = Close.
Set History Precision = 1D for long-term data.
Customize :
Enable Show Year -1 to Show Year -5.
Assign distinct colors to each year.
Disable Keep History for All to ensure lines update on year transitions.
Analyze :
Observe how the 2023 close prices align with 2024’s price action.
Use vertical lines to identify yearly boundaries.
Common Questions
Why are some years missing?
Ensure the chart has sufficient historical data (e.g., daily charts cover 10 years, 60m/15m may only cover 1–3 years).
How do I update the data?
Adjust the Price Source or toggle years/history settings. The legend table updates automatically.
Sharpe & Sortino Ratio PROSharpe & Sortino Ratio PRO offers an advanced and more precise way to calculate and visualize the Sharpe and Sortino Ratios for financial assets on TradingView. Its main goal is to provide a scientifically accurate method for assessing the risk-adjusted performance of assets, both in the short and long term. Unlike TradingView’s built-in metrics, this script correctly handles periodic returns, uses optional logarithmic returns, properly annualizes both returns and volatility, and adjusts for the risk-free rate — all critical factors for truly meaningful Sharpe and Sortino calculations.
Users can customize the rolling analysis window (e.g., 252 periods for one year on daily data) and the long-term smoothing period (e.g., 1260 periods for five years). There’s also an option to select between linear and logarithmic returns and to manually input a risk-free rate if real-time data from FRED (the 3-Month T-Bill Rate via FRED:DGS3MO) is unavailable. Based on the chart’s timeframe (daily, weekly, or monthly), the script automatically adjusts the risk-free rate to a per-period basis.
The Sharpe Ratio is calculated by first determining the asset’s excess returns (returns after subtracting the risk-free return per period), then computing the average and standard deviation of those excess returns over the specified window, and finally annualizing these figures separately — in line with best scientific practices (Sharpe, 1994). The Sortino Ratio follows a similar approach but only considers negative returns, focusing specifically on downside risk (Sortino & Van der Meer, 1991).
To enhance readability, the script visualizes the ratios using a color gradient: strong negative values are shown in red, neutral values in yellow, and strong positive values in green. Additionally, the long-term averages for both Sharpe and Sortino are plotted with steady colors (teal and orange, respectively), making it easier to spot enduring performance trends.
Why calculating Sharpe and Sortino Ratios manually on TradingView is necessary?
While TradingView provides basic Sharpe and Sortino Ratios, they come with significant methodological flaws that can lead to misleading conclusions about an asset’s true risk-adjusted performance.
First, TradingView often computes volatility based on the standard deviation of price levels rather than returns (TradingView, 2023). This method is problematic because it causes the volatility measure to be directly dependent on the asset’s absolute price. For instance, a stock priced at $1,000 will naturally show larger absolute daily price moves than a $10 stock, even if their percentage changes are similar. This artificially inflates the measured standard deviation and, as a result, depresses the calculated Sharpe Ratio.
Second, TradingView frequently neglects to adjust for the risk-free rate. By treating all returns as risky returns, the computed Sharpe Ratio may significantly underestimate risk-adjusted performance, especially when interest rates are high (Sharpe, 1994).
Third, and perhaps most critically, TradingView doesn’t properly annualize the mean excess return and the standard deviation separately. In correct financial math, the mean excess return should be multiplied by the number of periods per year, while the standard deviation should be multiplied by the square root of the number of periods per year (Cont, 2001; Fabozzi et al., 2007). Incorrect annualization skews the Sharpe and Sortino Ratios and can lead to under- or overestimating investment risk.
These flaws lead to three major issues:
• Overstated volatility for high-priced assets.
• Incorrect scaling between returns and risk.
• Sharpe Ratios that are systematically biased downward, especially in high-price or high-interest environments.
How to properly calculate Sharpe and Sortino Ratios in Pine Script?
To get accurate results, the Sharpe and Sortino Ratios must be calculated using the correct methodology:
1. Use returns, not price levels, to calculate volatility. Ideally, use logarithmic returns for better mathematical properties like time additivity (Cont, 2001).
2. Adjust returns by subtracting the risk-free rate on a per-period basis to obtain true excess returns.
3. Annualize separately:
• Multiply the mean excess return by the number of periods per year (e.g., 252 for daily data).
• Multiply the standard deviation by the square root of the number of periods per year.
4. Finally, divide the annualized mean excess return by the annualized standard deviation to calculate the Sharpe Ratio.
The Sortino Ratio follows the same structure but uses downside deviations instead of standard deviations.
By following this scientifically sound method, you ensure that your Sharpe and Sortino Ratios truly reflect the asset’s real-world risk and return characteristics.
References
• Cont, R. (2001). Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues. Quantitative Finance, 1(2), pp. 223–236.
• Fabozzi, F.J., Gupta, F. and Markowitz, H.M. (2007). The Legacy of Modern Portfolio Theory. Journal of Investing, 16(3), pp. 7–22.
• Sharpe, W.F. (1994). The Sharpe Ratio. Journal of Portfolio Management, 21(1), pp. 49–58.
• Sortino, F.A. and Van der Meer, R. (1991). Downside Risk: Capturing What’s at Stake in Investment Situations. Journal of Portfolio Management, 17(4), pp. 27–31.
• TradingView (2023). Help Center - Understanding Sharpe and Sortino Ratios. Available at: www.tradingview.com (Accessed: 25 April 2025).
Date Display with Bar Counter and EMA===== ENGLISH DESCRIPTION =====
OVERVIEW:
This is a multi-function indicator that combines three useful tools in one script:
1. Date Display - Shows current date and symbol information in a customizable table
2. Bar Counter - Displays sequential bar numbers at specified intervals
3. EMA (Exponential Moving Average) - Plots an EMA line with customizable settings
FEATURES:
1. DATE DISPLAY:
- Shows date in full format (e.g., "Mon ∙ January 1, 2023") or short format (e.g., "Mon ∙ 01.01.23")
- Option to show/hide day of week
- Option to show/hide symbol and timeframe information
- Customizable table position (top/middle/bottom, left/center/right)
- Automatic color adjustment based on chart background
2. BAR COUNTER:
- Displays sequential bar numbers below price bars
- Customizable display frequency (every X bars)
- Special handling for Hong Kong futures (resets at market open)
- Different reset logic based on timeframe (daily, weekly, monthly)
- Customizable text size and color
3. EMA INDICATOR:
- Customizable period length (default: 20)
- Option to use different timeframe for calculation
- Option to wait for timeframe close for more stable signals
- Customizable line color
USAGE INSTRUCTIONS:
- After adding the indicator to your chart, customize settings in the "Format" panel
- The Date Display table will appear at your chosen position on the chart
- Bar numbers will appear below price bars at your specified frequency
- The EMA line will be plotted on the chart with your chosen settings
- Colors automatically adjust to light/dark chart themes
===== 中文说明 =====
概述：
这是一个多功能指标，将三个实用工具合并为一个脚本：
1. 日期显示 - 在可自定义的表格中显示当前日期和交易品种信息
2. K线计数器 - 按指定间隔显示K线序号
3. EMA指数移动平均线 - 绘制可自定义设置的EMA线
功能特点：
1. 日期显示：
- 支持完整格式（如"Mon ∙ January 1, 2023"）或简短格式（如"Mon ∙ 01.01.23"）
- 可选择显示/隐藏星期几
- 可选择显示/隐藏交易品种和时间周期信息
- 可自定义表格位置（顶部/中部/底部，左侧/中间/右侧）
- 根据图表背景自动调整颜色
2. K线计数器：
- 在价格K线下方显示序号
- 可自定义显示频率（每X根K线）
- 对香港期货有特殊处理（在开市时重置）
- 根据时间周期（日线、周线、月线）使用不同的重置逻辑
- 可自定义文字大小和颜色
3. EMA指标：
- 可自定义周期长度（默认：20）
- 可选择使用不同的时间周期进行计算
- 可选择等待时间周期结束以获得更稳定的信号
- 可自定义线条颜色
使用说明：
- 将指标添加到图表后，在"格式"面板中自定义设置
- 日期显示表格将出现在您选择的图表位置
- K线序号将按您指定的频率显示在价格K线下方
- EMA线将根据您选择的设置绘制在图表上
- 颜色会根据浅色/深色图表主题自动调整
*/
Gann & Fibonacci Analysis for MSTRYes! Below is a step-by-step guide to performing Gann Analysis on MSTR in TradingView for the last year.
Step 1: Set Up the Chart
Open TradingView and search for MSTR (MicroStrategy).
Select the 1-day (D) timeframe to analyze the past year.
Set your chart to logarithmic scale (⚙ Settings → Scale → Log).
Enable grid lines for alignment (⚙ Settings → Appearance → Grid Lines).
Step 2: Identify Key Highs and Lows (Last Year)
Find the 52-week high and 52-week low for MSTR.
As of now:
52-Week High: ~$999 (March 2024).
52-Week Low: ~$280 (October 2023).
Step 3: Plot Gann Angles
Using TradingView's Gann Fan Tool:
Select "Gann Fan" (Press / and type “Gann Fan” to find it).
Start at the 52-week low (~$280, October 2023) and drag upwards.
Adjust the angles to match key levels:
1x1 (45°) → Main trendline
2x1 (26.5°) → Strong uptrend
4x1 (15°) → Weak trendline
1x2 (63.75°) → Strong resistance
Repeat the process from the 52-week high (~$999, March 2024) downward to see bearish angles.
Step 4: Apply Fibonacci & Gann Retracement Levels
Using Fibonacci Retracement:
Select "Fibonacci Retracement" tool.
Draw from 52-week high ($999) to 52-week low ($280).
Enable key Fibonacci levels:
23.6% ($816)
38.2% ($678)
50% ($640)
61.8% ($550)
78.6% ($430)
Watch for price reactions near these levels.
Using Gann Retracement Levels:
Select "Gann Box" in TradingView.
Draw from 52-week high ($999) to low ($280).
Enable key Gann retracement levels:
12.5% ($912)
25% ($850)
37.5% ($768)
50% ($640)
62.5% ($550)
75% ($480)
87.5% ($350)
Identify confluences with Gann angles and Fibonacci levels.
Step 5: Identify Significant Dates & Time Cycles
Use "Date Range" Tool in TradingView.
Mark major turning points:
High → Low: ~180 days (Half-year cycle).
Low → High: ~90 days (Quarter cycle).
Use Square-Outs (Time = Price method):
Example: If MSTR hit $500, check 500 days from key events.
Mark key anniversaries of past highs/lows for possible reversals.
Step 6: Analyze and Trade Execution
✅ If MSTR is at a Gann angle + Fibonacci level + key date → Expect a reaction.
✅ Use RSI, MACD, and Volume for extra confirmation.
✅ Set Stop-Loss at nearest Gann support/resistance.
TASC 2025.02 Autocorrelation Indicator█ OVERVIEW
This script implements the Autocorrelation Indicator introduced by John Ehlers in the "Drunkard's Walk: Theory And Measurement By Autocorrelation" article from the February 2025 edition of TASC's Traders' Tips . The indicator calculates the autocorrelation of a price series across several lags to construct a periodogram , which traders can use to identify market cycles, trends, and potential reversal patterns.
█ CONCEPTS
Drunkard's walk
A drunkard's walk , formally known as a random walk , is a type of stochastic process that models the evolution of a system or variable through successive random steps.
In his article, John Ehlers relates this model to market data. He discusses two first- and second-order partial differential equations, modified for discrete (non-continuous) data, that can represent solutions to the discrete random walk problem: the diffusion equation and the wave equation. According to Ehlers, market data takes on a mixture of two "modes" described by these equations. He theorizes that when "diffusion mode" is dominant, trading success is almost a matter of luck, and when "wave mode" is dominant, indicators may have improved performance.
Pink spectrum
John Ehlers explains that many recent academic studies affirm that market data has a pink spectrum , meaning the power spectral density of the data is proportional to the wavelengths it contains, like pink noise . A random walk with a pink spectrum suggests that the states of the random variable are correlated and not independent. In other words, the random variable exhibits long-range dependence with respect to previous states.
Autocorrelation function (ACF)
Autocorrelation measures the correlation of a time series with a delayed copy, or lag , of itself. The autocorrelation function (ACF) is a method that evaluates autocorrelation across a range of lags , which can help to identify patterns, trends, and cycles in stochastic market data. Analysts often use ACF to detect and characterize long-range dependence in a time series.
The Autocorrelation Indicator evaluates the ACF of market prices over a fixed range of lags, expressing the results as a color-coded heatmap representing a dynamic periodogram. Ehlers suggests the information from the periodogram can help traders identify different market behaviors, including:
Cycles : Distinguishable as repeated patterns in the periodogram.
Reversals : Indicated by sharp vertical changes in the periodogram when the indicator uses a short data length .
Trends : Indicated by increasing correlation across lags, starting with the shortest, over time.
█ USAGE
This script calculates the Autocorrelation Indicator on an input "Source" series, smoothed by Ehlers' UltimateSmoother filter, and plots several color-coded lines to represent the periodogram's information. Each line corresponds to an analyzed lag, with the shortest lag's line at the bottom of the pane. Green hues in the line indicate a positive correlation for the lag, red hues indicate a negative correlation (anticorrelation), and orange or yellow hues mean the correlation is near zero.
Because Pine has a limit on the number of plots for a single indicator, this script divides the periodogram display into three distinct ranges that cover different lags. To see the full periodogram, add three instances of this script to the chart and set the "Lag range" input for each to a different value, as demonstrated in the chart above.
With a modest autocorrelation length, such as 20 on a "1D" chart, traders can identify seasonal patterns in the price series, which can help to pinpoint cycles and moderate trends. For instance, on the daily ES1! chart above, the indicator shows repetitive, similar patterns through fall 2023 and winter 2023-2024. The green "triangular" shape rising from the zero lag baseline over different time ranges corresponds to seasonal trends in the data.
To identify turning points in the price series, Ehlers recommends using a short autocorrelation length, such as 2. With this length, users can observe sharp, sudden shifts along the vertical axis, which suggest potential turning points from upward to downward or vice versa.
PE BandThe PE Band shows the highest and lowest P/E in the previous period with TTM EPS. If the current P/E is lower than the minimum P/E, it is considered cheap. In other words, higher than the maximum P/E is considered expensive.
PE Band consists of 2 lines.
- Firstly, the historical P/E value in "green" (if TTM EPS is positive) or "red" (if TTM EPS is negative) states will change according to the latest high or low price of TTM EPS, such as: :
After the second quarter of 2023 (end of June), how do prices from 1 July – 30 September reflect net profits? The program will get the highest and lowest prices during that time.
After the 3rd quarter of 2023 (end of September), how do prices from 1 Oct. - 31 Dec. reflect net profits? The program will get the highest and lowest prices during that time.
- Second, the blue line is the closing price divided by TTM EPS, which shows the current P/E.
Backtest any Indicator v5Happy Trade,
here you get the opportunity to backtest any of your indicators like a strategy without converting them into a strategy. You can choose to go long or go short and detailed time filters. Further more you can set the take profit and stop loss, initial capital, quantity per trade and set the exchange fees. You get an overall result table and even a detailed, scroll-able table with all trades. In the Image 1 you see the provided info tables about all Trades and the Result Summary. Further more every trade is marked by a background color, Labels and Levels. An opening Label with the trade direction and trade number. A closing Label again with the trade number, the trades profit in % and the total amount of $ after all past trades. A green line for the take profit level and a red line for the stop loss.
Image 1
Example
For this description we choose the Stochastic RSI indicator from TradingView as it is. In Image 2 is shown the performance of it with decent settings.
Timeframe=45, BTCUSD, 2023-08-01 - 2023-10-20
Stoch RSI: k=30, d=40, RSI-length=140, stoch-length=140
Backtest any Indicator: input signal=Stoch RSI, goLong, take profit=9.1%, stop loss=2.5%, start capital=1000$, qty=5%, fee=0.1%, no Session Filter
Image 2
Usage
1) You need to know the name of the boolean (or integer) variable of your indicator which hold the buy condition. Lets say that this boolean variable is called BUY. If this BUY variable is not plotted on the chart you simply add the following code line at the end of your pine script.
For boolean (true/false) BUY variables use this:
plot(BUY ? 1:0,'Your buy condition hold in that variable BUY',display = display.data_window)
And in case your script's BUY variable is an integer or float then use instate the following code line:
plot(BUY ,'Your buy condition hold in that variable BUY',display = display.data_window)
2) Probably the name of this BUY variable in your indicator is not BUY. Simply replace in the code line above the BUY with the name of your script's trade condition variable.
3) Save your changed Indicator script.
4) Then add this 'Backtest any Indicator' script to the chart ...
5) and go to the settings of it. Choose under "Settings -> Buy Signal" your Indicator. So in the example above choose .
The form is usually: ' : BUY'. Then you see something like Image 2
6) Decide which trade direction the BUY signal should trigger. A go Long or a go Short by set the hook or not.
Now you have a backtest of your Indicator without converting it into a strategy. You may change the setting of your Indicator to the best results and setup the following strategy settings like Time- and Session Filter, Stop Loss, Take Profit etc. More of it below in the section Settings Menu.
Appereance
In the Image 2 you see on the right side the List of Trades . To scroll down you go into the settings again and decrease the scroll value. So you can see all trades that have happened before. In case there is an open trade you will find it at the last position of the list.
Every Long trade is green back grounded while Short trades are red.
Every trade begins with a label that show goLong or goShort and its number. And ends with another label again with its number, Profit in % and the resulting total amount of cash.
If activated you further see the Take Profit as a green line and the Stop Loss as a orange line. In the settings you can set their percentage above or below the entry price.
You also see the Result Summary below. Here you find the usual stats of a strategy of all closed trades. The profit after total amount of fees , amount of trades, Profit Factor and the total amount of fees .
Settings Menu
In the settings menu you will find the following high-lighted sections. Most of the settings have a question mark on their right side. Move over it with the cursor to read specific explanation.
Input Signal of your Indicator: Under Buy you set the trade signal of your Indicator. And under Target you set the value when a trade should happen. In the Example with the Stochastic RSI above we used 20. Below you can set the trade direction, let it be go short when hooked or go long when unhooked.
Trade Settings & List of Trades: Take Profit set the target price of any trade. Stop Loss set the price to step out when a trade goes the wrong direction. Check mark the List of Trades to see any single trade with their stats. In case that there are more trades as fits in the list you can scroll down the list by decrease the value Scroll .
Time Filter: You can set a Start Time or deactivate it by leave it unhooked. The same with End Time .
Session Filter: here you can choose to activate it on weekly base. Which days of the week should be trading and those without. And also on daily base from which time on and until trade are possible. Outside of all times and sessions there will be no new trades if activated.
Invest Settings: here you can choose the amount of cash to start with. The Quantity percentage define for every trade how much of the cash should be invested and the Fee percentage which have to be payed every trade. Open position and closing position.
Other Announcements
This Backtest script don't use the strategy functions of TradingView. It is programmed as an indicator. All trades get executed at candle closing. This script use the functionality "Indicator-on-Indicator" from TradingView.
Conclusion
So now it is your turn, take your promising indicators and connect it to that Backtest script. With it you get a fast impression of how successful your indicator will trade. You don't have to relay on coders who maybe add cheating code lines. Further more you can check with the Time Filter under which market condition you indicator perform the best or not so well. Also with the Session Filter you can sort out repeating good market conditions for your indicator. Even you can check with the GoShort XOR GoLong check mark the trade signals of you indicator in opposite trade direction with one click. And compare your indicators under the same conditions and get the results just after 2 clicks. Thanks to the in-build fee setting you get an impression how much a 0.1% fee cost you in total.
Cheers
SuperTrend ToolkitThe SuperTrend Toolkit (Super Kit) introduces a versatile approach to trend analysis by extending the application of the SuperTrend indicator to a wide array of @TradingView's built-in or Community Scripts . This tool facilitates the integration of the SuperTrend algorithm with various indicators, including oscillators, moving averages, overlays, and channels.
Methodology:
The SuperTrend, at its core, calculates a trend-following indicator based on the Average-True-Range (ATR) and price action. It creates dynamic support and resistance levels, adjusting to changing market conditions, and aiding in trend identification.
pine_st(simple float factor = 3., simple int length = 10) =>
float atr = ta.atr(length)
float up = hl2 + factor * atr
up := up < nz(up ) or close > nz(up ) ? up : nz(up )
float lo = hl2 - factor * atr
lo := lo > nz(lo ) or close < nz(lo ) ? lo : nz(lo )
int dir = na
float st = na
if na(atr )
dir := 1
else if st == nz(up )
dir := close > up ? -1 : 1
else
dir := close < lo ? 1 : -1
st := dir == -1 ? lo : up
@TradingView's native SuperTrend lacks the flexibility to incorporate different price sources into its calculation.
Community scripts, addressed the limitation by implementing the option to input different price sources, for example, one of the most popular publications, @KivancOzbilgic's SuperTrend script.
In May 2023, @TradingView introduced an update allowing the passing of another indicator's plot as a source value via the input.source() function. However, the built-in ta.atr function still relied on the chart's price data, limiting the formerly mentioned scripts to the chart's price data alone.
Unique Approach -
This script addresses the aforementioned limitations by processing the data differently.
Firstly we create a User-Defined-Type (UDT) replicating a bar's open, high, low, close (OHLC) values.
type bar
float o = open
float h = high
float l = low
float c = close
We then use this type to store the external input data.
src = input.source(close, "External Source")
bar b = bar.new(
nz(src ) , open 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦
math.max(nz(src ), src), high 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦
math.min(nz(src ), src), low 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦
src ) close 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦
Finally, we pass the data into our custom built SuperTrend with ATR functions to derive the external source's version of the SuperTrend indicator.
supertrend st = b.st(mlt, len)
- Setup Guide -
Utility and Use Cases:
Universal Compatibility - Apply SuperTrend to any built-in indicator or script, expanding its use beyond traditional price data.
- A simple example on one of my own public scripts -
Trend Analysis - Gain additional trend insights into otherwise mainly mean reverting or volume indicators.
- Alerts Setup Guide -
The Super Kit empowers traders and analysts with a tool that adapts the robust SuperTrend algorithm to a myriad of indicators, allowing comprehensive trend analysis and strategy development.
TASC 2023.12 Growth and Value Switching System█ OVERVIEW
This script implements a rotation system for trading value and growth ETFs, as developed by Markos Katsanos and detailed in the article titled 'Growth Or Value?' in TASC's December 2023 edition of Traders' Tips . The purpose of this script is to demonstrate how short-term momentum can be employed to track market trends and provide clarity on when to switch between value and growth.
█ CONCEPTS
The central concept of the presented rotation strategy is based on the observation that the stock market undergoes cycles favoring either growth or value stocks. Consequently, the script introduces a momentum trading system that is designed to switch between value and growth equities based on prevailing market conditions. Specifically tailored for long-term index investors, the system focuses on trading Vanguard's value and growth ETFs ( VTV and VUG ) on a weekly timeframe.
To identify the ETF likely to outperform, the script uses a custom relative strength indicator applied to both VTV and VUG in comparison with an index ( SPY ). To minimize risk and drawdowns during bear markets, when both value and growth experience downtrends, the script employs the author's custom volume flow indicator (VFI) and blocks trades when its reading indicates money outflow . Positions are closed if the relative strength of the current open trade ETF falls below that of the other ETF for two consecutive weeks and is also below its moving average. Additionally, the script implements a stop-loss when the ETF is trading below its 40-week moving average, but only during bear markets.
The script plots the relative strengths of the value and growth equities along with the signals triggered by the aforementioned rules. Information about the current readings of the relative strength and volume flow indicators, along with the current open position, is displayed in a table.
█ CALCULATIONS
The script uses the request.security() function to gather price data for both equities and the reference index. Custom relative strength and volume flow indicators are calculated based on the formulas presented in the original article. By default, the script employs the same parameters for these indicators as proposed in the original article for VTV and VUG on a weekly timeframe.
TASC 2023.11 VAcc█ OVERVIEW
The November 2023 edition of TASC's Traders' Tips features an article titled "VAcc: A Momentum Indicator Based On Velocity And Acceleration" by Scott Cong. This script implements the author's momentum indicator based on simple physics concepts.
█ CONCEPTS
The indicator is named VAcc as it is derived from the average velocity (V) and acceleration (Acc) over a specified lookback period. Consequently, its readings reflect two valuable characteristics of price data: rate (indicating the speed at which the price is moving) and rate of change (indicating whether the price is speeding up or slowing down).
In the article, the author reports that for longer periods, VAcc behaves similarly to the MACD , albeit with a more responsive nature. For shorter periods, VAcc exhibits characteristics reminiscent of the stochastic oscillator , but it trends more prominently and is less prone to overbought/oversold saturation.
To incorporate VAcc into trading strategies, the author suggests considering the following two permutations for the velocity and acceleration data series:
Strong upward condition: Velocity is rising, and acceleration is rising above zero.
Strong downward condition: Velocity is falling, and acceleration is falling.
In the current implementation, the chart displays the average velocity as a line, while the average acceleration is presented as a histogram.
█ CALCULATIONS
The calculation of VAcc involves the following steps:
For the current closing price, C , and for each bar C (i) within a specified lookback period from the current bar, the script calculates velocities, V (i) = ( C - C (i))/i. These velocities are then subjected to an exponential moving average to obtain the smoothed average velocity.
Similarly, for each bar within the lookback period, accelerations are calculated as Acc (i) = ( V - V (i))/i and then averaged without smoothing.
TASC 2023.10 COT Commercials Indicator█ OVERVIEW
This script implements the COT Commercials Indicator introduced by Alfred François Tagher in an article featured in TASC's October 2023 edition of Traders' Tips . The indicator is designed for use in futures markets and represents a fast stochastic (%K) calculated based on the commercial open interest values of an asset derived from the weekly Commitments Of Traders (COT) report .
█ CONCEPTS
The COT report, issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) , presents a breakdown of reportable open interest positions held by various trader groups—commercial, noncommercial, and nonreportable (small traders). Open interest reflects the total number of derivative contracts entered by market participants but not yet settled. Consequently, it can serve as a measure of market activity and liquidity.
The indicator showcased here aims to analyze changes in the reported net values of open interest for commercial traders/hedgers (often referred to as 'smart money', as they deal directly in underlying commodities). The net values are positive when the commercial traders have more long positions than short ones and negative when they hold more short positions than long ones. Positive net values indicate that commercial traders hold more long positions than short ones, while negative values indicate the opposite. Thus, overbought and oversold conditions of the COT Commercials Indicator potentially suggest collective bullish and bearish sentiments, respectively.
█ CALCULATIONS
The calculations involve these steps:
1. Net open interest values are extracted from COT data using the LibraryCOT library provided by TradingView.
2. A fast stochastic indicator (%K) is then applied to normalize these net values.
The script also provides an option of calculating and plotting the indicator curve for noncommercial (speculators) open interest.
TASC 2023.09 The Weekly Factor█ OVERVIEW
TASC's September 2023 edition of Traders' Tips features an article written by Andrea Unger titled “The Weekly Factor", discussing the application of price patterns as filters for trade entries. This script implements a sample trading strategy presented in the article for demonstration purposes only. It explores how the strategy's equity curve might benefit from filtering trade entries using a specific price pattern.
█ CONCEPTS
Pattern filters represent valuable tools that assess current market conditions based on price movements and determine when those conditions become more favorable for trade entries.
The filter used and tested in this article is a metric called the "weekly factor", which measures the price range over the last five trading days and compares it to the open of the session five days ago and the close of the session one day ago (i.e., the "body" of the five-day period). When the five-day body is small compared to the five-day range, this could indicate "indecision" or "compression", potentially followed by a price expansion. Thus, the weekly factor metric can help identify areas in the market where a period of compression might signal a potential breakout.
This script demonstrates the use of the weekly factor for a sample intraday trading strategy (intended for educational and exploratory purposes only). In this strategy, the entry signal is triggered when a 15-minute bar breaks out of the previous day's high-low range, and the position is closed at the end of the day.
█ CALCULATIONS
The script uses two timeframes:
• The strategy entries are processed on the 15-minute timeframe.
• The weekly factor is obtained from the daily timeframe using the request.security function and the following formula:
math.abs(open - close ) < RangeFilter * (ta.highest(5) - ta.lowest(5) )
Here, RangeFilter is an input that can be optimized to find the favorable ratio between the five-day body and the five-day range. Smaller RangeFilter values will lead to fewer trade entries. A RangeFilter value of 1 is equivalent to turning off the filtering altogether.
Historical Pattern Matcher [Trendoscope]Do you believe in patterns and think price movements are more likely to follow historical patterns? If yes, this is an indicator for you.
🎲 Concept
The patterns in this script are not a named or known pattern. But, it can be any pattern that happen to repeat again and again over a period of time.
The indicator collects the following information over a period of time.
Collects all possible patterns for specified number of pivots based on relation between each pivot prices. (Default 6)
Keeps track of all the possible patterns for the given pivots and number of occurrences of such patterns over a period of time.
Collects the movement of next pivot (in terms of retracement ratio) after the pattern has formed for each occurrence.
Keeps track of the last occurrence of each pattern collected
And the indicator presents on chart following information
Current Pattern drawing based on last confirmed pivot.
Current Pattern drawing based on current unconfirmed pivot in the opposite direction.
Projection range based on historical retracement ratio for both patterns
Detailed info on last occurrence and overall occurrences.
Last occurrence of both confirmed and unconfirmed pivot patterns.
Please note that, if the patterns have not been repeated over a period, then it will not be shown on the screen. Hence, it is perfectly normal to not see any projection. This can happen when the current pattern has not been repeated any time before.
🎲 Details
When you load the indicator on the chart, you may see the following patterns and projections.
You may also notice, in the pattern details, information about the last occurrence of the pattern. If you scroll on your chart to the left to the given data and time, you can observe how the past occurrence of the pattern has formed and the price movement past that point.
For example, last occurrence of pattern based on confirmed pivot happened on 02-Jun-2023 00:00 UTC time
And last occurrence of pattern based on unconfirmed pivot happened on 27-Apr-2023 22:00 UTC time
🎲 Settings
Settings are minimal, and here is the meaning of them.
Most important setting here is the number of pivots forming the pattern.
🎲 Caution
The indicator is designed to present the projection based on historical occurrences of similar price pattern. This does not necessarily mean the patterns are supposed to be bullish or bearish. But, it will certainly give users an idea of what happened when similar price action presented historically.
Note to developers This script makes use of new pine script feature - maps
