Volatility Breaker Blocks [BigBeluga]The Volatility Breaker Blocks indicator identifies key market levels based on significant volatility at pivot highs and lows. It plots blocks that act as potential support and resistance zones, marked in green (support) and blue (resistance). Even after a breakout, these blocks leave behind shadow boxes that continue to impact price action. The sensitivity of block detection can be adjusted in the settings, allowing traders to customize the identification of volatility breakouts. The blocks print triangle labels (up or down) after breakouts, indicating potential areas of interest.
🔵 IDEA
The Volatility Breaker Blocks indicator is designed to highlight key areas in the market where volatility has created significant price action. These blocks, created at pivot highs and lows with increased volatility, act as potential support and resistance levels.
The idea is that even after price breaks through these blocks, the remaining shadow boxes continue to influence price movements. By focusing on volatility-driven pivot points, traders can better anticipate how price may react when it revisits these areas. The indicator also captures the natural tendency for price to retest broken resistance or support levels.
🔵 KEY FEATURES & USAGE
◉ High Volatility Breaker Blocks:
The indicator identifies areas of high volatility at pivot highs and lows, plotting blocks that represent these zones. Green blocks represent support zones (identified at pivot lows), while blue blocks represent resistance zones (identified at pivot highs).
Support:
Resistance:
◉ Shadow Blocks after Breakouts:
When price breaks through a block, the block doesn't disappear. Instead, it leaves behind a shadow box, which can still influence future price action. These shadow blocks act as secondary support or resistance levels.
If the price crosses these shadow blocks, the block stops extending, and the right edge of the box is fixed at the point where the price crosses it. This feature helps traders monitor important price levels even after the initial breakout has occurred.
◉ Triangle Labels for Breakouts:
After the price breaks through a volatility block, the indicator prints triangle labels (up or down) at the breakout points.
◉ Support and Resistance Retests:
One of the key concepts in this indicator is the retesting of broken blocks. After breaking a resistance block, price often returns to the shadow box, which then acts as support. Similarly, after breaking a support block, price tends to return to the shadow box, which becomes a resistance level. This concept of price retesting and bouncing off these levels is essential for understanding how the indicator can be used to identify potential entries and exits.
The natural tendency of price to retest broken resistance or support levels.
Additionaly indicator can display retest signals of broken support or resistance
◉ Customizable Sensitivity:
The sensitivity of volatility detection can be adjusted in the settings. A higher sensitivity captures fewer but more significant breakouts, while a lower sensitivity captures more frequent volatility breakouts. This flexibility allows traders to adapt the indicator to different trading styles and market conditions.
🔵 CUSTOMIZATION
Calculation Window: Defines the window of bars over which the breaker blocks are calculated. A larger window will capture longer-term levels, while a smaller window focuses on more recent volatility areas.
Volatility Sensitivity: Adjusts the threshold for volatility detection. Lower sensitivity captures smaller breakouts, while higher sensitivity focuses on larger, more significant moves.
Retest Signals: Display or hide retest signals of shadow boxes
Komut dosyalarını "如何用wind搜索股票的发行价和份数" için ara
Great Expectations [LucF]Great Expectations helps traders answer the question: What is possible? It is a powerful question, yet exploration of the unknown always entails risk. A more complete set of questions better suited to traders could be:
What opportunity exists from any given point on a chart?
What portion of this opportunity can be realistically captured?
What risk will be incurred in trying to do so, and how long will it take?
Great Expectations is the result of an exploration of these questions. It is a trade simulator that generates visual and quantitative information to help strategy modelers visually identify and analyse areas of optimal expectation on charts, whether they are designing automated or discretionary strategies.
WARNING: Great Expectations is NOT an indicator that helps determine the current state of a market. It works by looking at points in the past from which the future is already known. It uses one definition of repainting extensively (i.e. it goes back in the past to print information that could not have been know at the time). Repainting understood that way is in fact almost all the indicator does! —albeit for what I hope is a noble cause. The indicator is of no use whatsoever in analyzing markets in real-time. If you do not understand what it does, please stay away!
This is an indicator—not a strategy that uses TradingView’s backtesting engine. It works by simulating trades, not unlike a backtest, but with the crucial difference that it assumes a trade (either long or short) is entered on all bars in the historic sample. It walks forward from each bar and determines possible outcomes, gathering individual trade statistics that in turn generate precious global statistics from all outcomes tested on the chart.
Great Expectations provides numbers summarizing trade results on all simulations run from the chart. Those numbers cannot be compared to backtest-produced numbers since all non-filtered bars are examined, even if an entry was taken on the bar immediately preceding the current one, which never happens in a backtest. This peculiarity does NOT invalidate Great Expectations calculations; it just entails that results be considered under a different light. Provided they are evaluated within the indicator’s context, they can be useful—sometimes even more than backtesting results, e.g. in evaluating the impact of parameter-fitting or variations in entry, exit or filtering strats.
Traders and strategy modelers are creatures of hope often suffering from blurred vision; my hope is that Great Expectations will help them appraise the validity of their setup and strat intuitions in a realistic fashion, preventing confirmation bias from obstructing perspective—and great expectations from turning into financial great deceptions.
USE CASES
You’ve identified what looks like a promising setup on other indicators. You load Great Expectations on the chart and evaluate if its high-expectation areas match locations where your setup’s conditions occur. Unless today is your lucky day, chances are the indicator will help you realize your setup is not as promising as you had hoped.
You want to get a rough estimate of the optimal trade duration for a chart and you don’t mind using the entry and exit strategies provided with the indicator. You use the trade length readouts of the indicator.
You’re experimenting with a new stop strategy and want to know how long it will keep you in trades, on average. You integrate your stop strategy in the indicator’s code and look at the average trade length it produces and the TST ratio to evaluate its performance.
You have put together your own entry and exit criteria and are looking for a filter that will help you improve backtesting results. You visually ascertain the suitability of your filter by looking at its results on the charts with great Expectations, to see if your filter is choosing its areas correctly.
You have a strategy that shows backtested trades on your chart. Great Expectations can help you evaluate how well your strategy is benefitting from high-opportunity areas while avoiding poor expectation spots.
You want more complete statistics on your set of strategies than what backtesting will provide. You use Great Expectations, knowing that it tests all bars in the sample that correspond to your criteria, as opposed to backtesting results which are limited to a subset of all possible entries.
You want to fool your friends into thinking you’ve designed the holy grail of indicators, something that identifies optimal opportunities on any chart; you show them the P&L cloud.
FEATURES
For one trade
At any given point on the chart, assuming a trade is entered there, Great Expectations shows you information specific to that trade simulation both on the chart and in the Data Window.
The chart can display:
the P & L Cloud which shows whether the trade ended profitably or not, and by how much,
the Opportunity & Risk Cloud which the maximum opportunity and risk the simulation encountered. When superimposed over the P & L cloud, you will see what I call the managed opportunity and risk, i.e the portion of maximum opportunity that was captured and the portion of the maximum risk that was incurred,
the target and if it was reached,
a background that uses a gradient to show different levels of trade length, P&L or how frequently the target was reached during simulation.
The Data Window displays more than 40 values on individual trades and global results. For any given trade you will know:
Entry/Exit levels, including slippage impact,
It’s outcome and duration,
P/L achieved,
The fraction of the maximum opportunity/risk managed by the trade.
For all trades
After going through all the possible trades on the chart, the indicator will provide you with a rare view of all outcomes expressed with the P&L cloud, which allows us to instantly see the most/least profitable areas of a chart using trade data as support, while also showing its relationship with the opportunity/risk encountered during the simulation. The difference between the two clouds is the managed opportunity and risk.
The Data Window will present you with numbers which we will go through later. Some of them are: average stop size, P/L, win rate, % opportunity managed, trade lengths for different types of trade outcomes and the TST (Target:Stop Travel) ratio.
Let’s see Great Expectations in action… and remember to open your Data Window!
INPUTS
Trade direction : You must first choose if you wish to look at long or short trades. Because of the way the indicator works and the amount of visual information on the chart, it is only practical to look at one type of trades at a time. The default is Longs.
Maximum trade Length (MaxL) : This is the maximum walk forward distance the simulator will go in analyzing outcomes from any given point in the past. It also determines the size of the dead zone among the chart’s last bars. A red background line identifies the beginning of the dead zone for which not enough bars have elapsed to analyze outcomes for the maximum trade length defined. If an ATR-based entry stop is used, that length is added to the wait time before beginning simulations, so that the first entry starts with a clean ATR value. On a sample of around 16000 bars, my tests show that the indicator runs into server errors at lengths of around 290, i.e. having completed ~4,6M simulation loop iterations. That is way too high a length anyways; 100 will usually be amply enough to ring out all the possibilities out of a simulation, and on shorter time frames, 30 can be enough. While making it unduly small will prevent simulations of expressing the market’s potential, the less you use, the faster the indicator will run. The default is 40.
Unrealized P&L base at End of Trade (EOT) : When a simulation ends and the trade is still open, we calculate unrealized P&L from an exit order executed from either the last in-trade stop on the previous bar, or the close of the last bar. You can readily see the impact of this selection on the chart, with the P&L cloud. The default is on the close.
Display : The check box besides the title does nothing.
Show target : Shows a green line displaying the trade’s target expressed as a multiple of X, i.e. the amplitude of the entry stop. I call this value “X” and use it as a unit to express profit and loss on a trade (some call it “R”). The line is highlighted for trades where the close reached the target during the trade, whether the trade ended in profit or loss. This is also where you specify the multiple of X you wish to use in calculating targets. The multiple is used even if targets are not displayed.
Show P&L Cloud : The cloud allows traders to see right away the profitable areas of the chart. The only line printed with the cloud is the “end of trade line” (EOT). The EOT line is the only way one can see the level where a trade ended on the chart (in the Data Window you can see it as the “Exit Fill” value). The EOT level for the trade determines if the trade ended in a profit or a loss. Its value represents one of the following:
- fill from order executed at close of bar where stop is breached during trade (which produces “Realized P/L”),
- simulation of a fill pseudo-fill at the user-defined EOT level (last close or stop level) if the trade runs its course through MaxL bars without getting stopped (producing Unrealized P/L).
The EOT line and the cloud fill print in green when the trade’s outcome is profitable and in red when it is not. If the trade was closed after breaching the stop, the line appears brighter.
Show Opportunity&Risk Cloud : Displays the maximum opportunity/risk that was present during the trade, i.e. the maximum and minimum prices reached.
Background Color Scheme : Allows you to choose between 3 different color schemes for the background gradients, to accommodate different types of chart background/candles. Select “None” if you don’t want a background.
Background source : Determines what value will be used to generate the different intensities of the gradient. You can choose trade length (brighter is shorter), Trade P&L (brighter is higher) or the number of times the target was reached during simulation (brighter is higher). The default is Trade Length.
Entry strat : The check box besides the title does nothing. The default strat is All bars, meaning a trade will be simulated from all bars not excluded by the filters where a MaxL bars future exists. For fun, I’ve included a pseudo-random entry strat (an indirect way of changing the seed is to vary the starting date of the simulation).
Show Filter State : Displays areas where the combination of filters you have selected are allowing entries. Filtering occurs as per your selection(s), whether the state is displayed or not. The effect of multiple selections is additive. The filters are:
1. Bar direction: Longs will only be entered if close>open and vice versa.
2. Rising Volume: Applies to both long and shorts.
3. Rising/falling MA of the length you choose over the number of bars you choose.
4. Custom indicator: You can feed your own filtering signal through this from another indicator. It must produce a signal of 1 to allow long entries and 0 to allow shorts.
Show Entry Stops :
1. Multiple of user-defined length ATR.
2. Fixed percentage.
3. Fixed value.
All entry stops are calculated using the entry fill price as a reference. The fill price is calculated from the current bar’s open, to which slippage is added if configured. This simulates the case where the strategy issued the entry signal on the previous bar for it to be executed at the next bar’s open.
The entry stop remains active until the in-trade stop becomes the more aggressive of the two stops. From then on, the entry stop will be ignored, unless a bar close breaches the in-trade stop, in which case the stop will be reset with a new entry stop and the process repeats.
Show In-trade stops : Displays in bright red the selected in-trade stop (be sure to read the note in this section about them).
1. ATR multiple: added/subtracted from the average of the two previous bars minimum/maximum of open/close.
2. A trailing stop with a deviation expressed as a multiple of entry stop (X).
3. A fixed percentage trailing stop.
Trailing stops deviations are measured from the highest/lowest high/low reached during the trade.
Note: There is a twist with the in-trade stops. It’s that for any given bar, its in-trade stop can hold multiple values, as each successive pass of the advancing simulation loops goes over it from a different entry points. What is printed is the stop from the loop that ended on that bar, which may have nothing to do with other instances of the trade’s in-trade stop for the same bar when visited from other starting points in previous simulations. There is just no practical way to print all stop values that were used for any given bar. While the printed entry stops are the actual ones used on each bar, the in-trade stops shown are merely the last instance used among many.
Include Slippage : if checked, slippage will be added/subtracted from order price to yield the fill price. Slippage is in percentage. If you choose to include slippage in the simulations, remember to adjust it by considering the liquidity of the markets and the time frame you’ll be analyzing.
Include Fees : if checked, fees will be subtracted/added to both realized an unrealized trade profits/losses. Fees are in percentage. The default fees work well for crypto markets but will need adjusting for others—especially in Forex. Remember to modify them accordingly as they can have a major impact on results. Both fees and slippage are included to remind us of their importance, even if the global numbers produced by the indicator are not representative of a real trading scenario composed of sequential trades.
Date Range filtering : the usual. Just note that the checkbox has to be selected for date filtering to activate.
DATA WINDOW
Most of the information produced by this indicator is made available in the Data Window, which you bring up by using the icon below the Watchlist and Alerts buttons at the right of the TV UI. Here’s what’s there.
Some of the information presented in the Data Window is standard trade data; other values are not so standard; e. g. the notions of managed opportunity and risk and Target:Stop Travel ratio. The interplay between all the values provided by Great Expectations is inherently complex, even for a static set of entry/filter/exit strats. During the constant updating which the habitual process of progressive refinement in building strategies that is the lot of strategy modelers entails, another level of complexity is no doubt added to the analysis of this indicator’s values. While I don’t want to sound like Wolfram presenting A New Kind of Science , I do believe that if you are a serious strategy modeler and spend the time required to get used to using all the information this indicator makes available, you may find it useful.
Trade Information
Entry Order : This is the open of the bar where simulation starts. We suppose that an entry signal was generated at the previous bar.
Entry Fill (including slip.) : The actual entry price, including slippage. This is the base price from which other values will be calculated.
Exit Order : When a stop is breached, an exit order is executed from the close of the bar that breached the stop. While there is no “In-trade stop” value included in the Data Window (other than the End of trade Stop previously discussed), this “Exit Order” value is how we can know the level where the trade was stopped during the simulation. The “Trade Length” value will then show the bar where the stop was breached.
Exit Fill (including slip.) : When the exit order is simulated, slippage is added to the order level to create the fill.
Chart: Target : This is the target calculated at the beginning of the simulation. This value also appear on the chart in teal. It is controlled by the multiple of X defined under the “Show Target” checkbox in the Inputs.
Chart: Entry Stop : This value also appears on the chart (the red dots under points where a trade was simulated). Its value is controlled by the Entry Strat chosen in the Inputs.
X (% Fill, including Fees) and X (currency) : This is the stop’s amplitude (Entry Fill – Entry Stop) + Fees. It represents the risk incurred upon entry and will be used to express P&L. We will show R expressed in both a percentage of the Entry Fill level (this value), and currency (the next value). This value represents the risk in the risk:reward ratio and is considered to be a unit of 1 so that RR can be expressed as a single value (i.e. “2” actually meaning “1:2”).
Trade Length : If trade was stopped, it’s the number of bars elapsed until then. The trade is then considered “Closed”. If the trade ends without being stopped (there is no profit-taking strat implemented, so the stop is the only exit strat), then the trade is “Open”, the length is MaxL and it will show in orange. Otherwise the value will print in green/red to reflect if the trade is winning/losing.
P&L (X) : The P&L of the trade, expressed as a multiple of X, which takes into account fees paid at entry and exit. Given our default target setting at 2 units of “X”, a trade that closes at its target will have produced a P&L of +2.0, i.e. twice the value of X (not counting fees paid at exit ). A trade that gets stopped late 50% further that the entry stop’s level will produce a P&L of -1.5X.
P&L (currency, including Fees) : same value as above, but expressed in currency.
Target first reached at bar : If price closed above the target during the trade (even if it occurs after the trade was stopped), this will show when. This value will be used in calculating our TST ratio.
Times Stop/Target reached in sim. : Includes all occurrences during the complete simulation loop.
Opportunity (X) : The highest/lowest price reached during a simulation, i.e. the maximum opportunity encountered, whether the trade was previously stopped or not, expressed as a multiple of X.
Risk (X) : The lowest/highest price reached during a simulation, i.e. the maximum risk encountered, whether the trade was previously stopped or not, expressed as a multiple of X.
Risk:Opportunity : The greater this ratio, the greater Opportunity is, compared to Risk.
Managed Opportunity (%) : The portion of Opportunity that was captured by the highest/low stop position, even if it occurred after a previous stop closed the trade.
Managed Risk (%) : The portion of risk that was protected by the lowest/highest stop position, even if it occurred after a previous stop closed the trade. When this value is greater than 100%, it means the trade’s stop is protecting more than the maximum risk, which is frequent. You will, however, never see close to those values for the Managed Opportunity value, since the stop would have to be higher than the Maximum opportunity. It is much easier to alleviate the risk than it is to lock in profits.
Managed Risk:Opportunity : The ratio of the two preceding values.
Managed Opp. vs. Risk : The Managed Opportunity minus the Managed Risk. When it is negative, which is most often is, it means your strat is protecting a greater portion of the risk than it captures opportunity.
Global Numbers
Win Rate(%) : Percentage of winning trades over all entries. Open trades are considered winning if their last stop/close (as per user selection) locks in profits.
Avg X%, Avg X (currency) : Averages of previously described values:.
Avg Profitability/Trade (APPT) : This measures expectation using: Average Profitability Per Trade = (Probability of Win × Average Win) − (Probability of Loss × Average Loss) . It quantifies the average expectation/trade, which RR alone can’t do, as the probabilities of each outcome (win/lose) must also be used to calculate expectancy. The APPT combine the RR with the win rate to yield the true expectancy of a strategy. In my usual way of expressing risk with X, APPT is the equivalent of the average P&L per trade expressed in X. An APPT of -1.5 means that we lose on average 1.5X/trade.
Equity (X), Equity (currency) : The cumulative result of all trade outcomes, expressed as a multiple of X. Multiplied by the Average X in currency, this yields the Equity in currency.
Risk:Opportunity, Managed Risk:Opportunity, Managed Opp. vs. Risk : The global values of the ones previously described.
Avg Trade Length (TL) : One of the most important values derived by going through all the simulations. Again, it is composed of either the length of stopped trades, or MaxL when the trade isn’t stopped (open). This value can help systems modelers shape the characteristics of the components they use to build their strategies.
Avg Closed Win TL and Avg Closed Lose TL : The average lengths of winning/losing trades that were stopped.
Target reached? Avg bars to Stop and Target reached? Avg bars to Target : For the trades where the target was reached at some point in the simulation, the number of bars to the first point where the stop was breached and where the target was reached, respectively. These two values are used to calculate the next value.
TST (Target:Stop Travel Ratio) : This tracks the ratio between the two preceding values (Bars to first stop/Bars to first target), but only for trades where the target was reached somewhere in the loop. A ratio of 2 means targets are reached twice as fast as stops.
The next values of this section are counts or percentages and are self-explanatory.
Chart Plots
Contains chart plots of values already describes.
NOTES
Optimization/Overfitting: There is a fine line between optimizing and overfitting. Tools like this indicator can lead unsuspecting modelers down a path of overfitting that often turns strategies into over-specialized beasts that do not perform elegantly when confronted to the real-world. Proven testing strategies like walk forward analysis will go a long way in helping modelers alleviate this risk.
Input tuning: Because the results generated by the indicator will vary with the parameters used in the active entry, filtering and exit strats, it’s important to realize that although it may be fun at first, just slapping the default settings on a chart and time frame will not yield optimal nor reliable results. While using ATR as often as possible (as I do in this indicator) is a good way to make strat parametrization adaptable, it is not a foolproof solution.
There is no data for the last MaxL bars of the chart, since not enough trade future has elapsed to run a simulation from MaxL bars back.
Modifying the code: I have tried to structure the code modularly, even if that entails a larger code base, so that you can adapt it to your needs. I’ve included a few token components in each of the placeholders designed for entry strategies, filters, entry stops and in-trade stops. This will hopefully make it easier to add your own. In the same spirit, I have also commented liberally.
You will find in the code many instances of standard trade management tasks that can be lifted to code TV strategies where, as I do in mine, you manage everything yourself and don’t rely on built-in Pine strategy functions to act on your trades.
Enjoy!
THANKS
To @scarf who showed me how plotchar() could be used to plot values without ruining scale.
To @glaz for the suggestion to include a Chandelier stop strat; I will.
To @simpelyfe for the idea of using an indicator input for the filters (if some day TV lets us use more than one, it will be useful in other modules of the indicator).
To @RicardoSantos for the random generator used in the random entry strat.
To all scripters publishing open source on TradingView; their code is the best way to learn.
To my trading buddies Irving and Bruno; who showed me way back how pro traders get it done.
Institutional Momentum Scanner [IMS]Institutional Momentum Scanner - Professional Momentum Detection System
Hunt explosive price movements like the professionals. IMS identifies maximum momentum displacement within 10-bar windows, revealing where institutional money commits to directional moves.
KEY FEATURES:
▪ Scans for strongest momentum in rolling 10-bar windows (institutional accumulation period)
▪ Adaptive filtering reduces false signals using efficiency ratio technology
▪ Three clear states: LONG (green), SHORT (red), WAIT (gray)
▪ Dynamic volatility-adjusted thresholds (8% ATR-scaled)
▪ Visual momentum flow with glow effects for signal strength
BASED ON:
- Pocket Pivot concept (O'Neil/Morales) applied to price momentum
- Adaptive Moving Average principles (Kaufman KAMA)
- Market Wizards momentum philosophy
- Institutional order flow patterns (5-day verification window)
HOW IT WORKS:
The scanner finds the maximum price displacement in each 10-bar window - where the market showed its hand. An adaptive filter (5-bar regression) separates real moves from noise. When momentum exceeds the volatility-adjusted threshold, states change.
IDEAL FOR:
- Momentum traders seeking explosive moves
- Swing traders (especially 4H timeframe)
- Position traders wanting institutional footprints
- Anyone tired of false breakout signals
Default parameters (10,5) optimized for 4H charts but adaptable to any timeframe. Remember: The market rewards patience and punishes heroes. Wait for clear signals.
"The market is honest. Are you?"
Candle Breakout Oscillator [LuxAlgo]The Candle Breakout Oscillator tool allows traders to identify the strength and weakness of the three main market states: bullish, bearish, and choppy.
Know who controls the market at any given moment with an oscillator display with values ranging from 0 to 100 for the three main plots and upper and lower thresholds of 80 and 20 by default.
🔶 USAGE
The Candle Breakout Oscillator represents the three main market states, with values ranging from 0 to 100. By default, the upper and lower thresholds are set at 80 and 20, and when a value exceeds these thresholds, a colored area is displayed for the trader's convenience.
This tool is based on pure price action breakouts. In this context, we understand a breakout as a close above the last candle's high or low, which is representative of market strength. All other close positions in relation to the last candle's limits are considered weakness.
So, when the bullish plot (in green) is at the top of the oscillator (values above 80), it means that the bullish breakouts (close below the last candle low) are at their maximum value over the calculation window, indicating an uptrend. The same interpretation can be made for the bearish plot (in red), indicating a downtrend when high.
On the other hand, weakness is indicated when values are below the lower threshold (20), indicating that breakouts are at their minimum over the last 100 candles. Below are some examples of the possible main interpretations:
There are three main things to look for in this oscillator:
Value reaches extreme
Value leaves extreme
Bullish/Bearish crossovers
As we can see on the chart, before the first crossover happens the bears come out of strength (top) and the bulls come out of weakness (bottom), then after the crossover the bulls reach strength (top) and the bears weakness (bottom), this process is repeated in reverse for the second crossover.
The other main feature of the oscillator is its ability to identify periods of sideways trends when the sideways values have upper readings above 80, and trending behavior when the sideways values have lower readings below 20. As we just saw in the case of bullish vs. bearish, sideways values signal a change in behavior when reaching or leaving the extremes of the oscillator.
🔶 DETAILS
🔹 Data Smoothing
The tool offers up to 10 different smoothing methods. In the chart above, we can see the raw data (smoothing: None) and the RMA, TEMA, or Hull moving averages.
🔹 Data Weighting
Users can add different weighting methods to the data. As we can see in the image above, users can choose between None, Volume, or Price (as in Price Delta for each breakout).
🔶 SETTINGS
Window: Execution window, 100 candles by default
🔹 Data
Smoothing Method: Choose between none or ten moving averages
Smoothing Length: Length for the moving average
Weighting Method: Choose between None, Volume, or Price
🔹 Thresholds
Top: 80 by default
Bottom: 20 by default
BPCO Z-ScoreBPCO Z-Score with Scaled Z-Value and Table
Description:
This custom indicator calculates the Z-Score of a specified financial instrument (using the closing price as a placeholder for the BPCO value), scales the Z-Score between -2 and +2 based on user-defined thresholds, and displays it in a table for easy reference.
The indicator uses a simple moving average (SMA) and standard deviation to calculate the original Z-Score, and then scales the Z-Score within a specified range (from -2 to +2) based on the upper and lower thresholds set by the user.
Additionally, the scaled Z-Score is displayed in a separate table on the right side of the chart, providing a clear, numerical value for users to track and interpret.
Key Features:
BPCO Z-Score: Calculates the Z-Score using a simple moving average and standard deviation over a user-defined window (default: 365 days). This provides a measure of how far the current price is from its historical average in terms of standard deviations.
Scaled Z-Score: The original Z-Score is then scaled between -2 and +2, based on the user-specified upper and lower thresholds. The thresholds default to 3.5 (upper) and -1.5 (lower), and can be adjusted as needed.
Threshold Bands: Horizontal lines are plotted on the chart to represent the upper and lower thresholds. These help visualize when the Z-Score crosses critical levels, indicating potential market overbought or oversold conditions.
Dynamic Table Display: The scaled Z-Score is shown in a dynamic table at the top-right of the chart, providing a convenient reference for traders. The table updates automatically as the Z-Score fluctuates.
How to Use:
Adjust Time Window: The "Z-Score Period (Days)" input allows you to adjust the time period used for calculating the moving average and standard deviation. By default, this is set to 365 days (1 year), but you can adjust this depending on your analysis needs.
Set Upper and Lower Thresholds: Use the "BPCO Upper Threshold" and "BPCO Lower Threshold" inputs to define the bands for your Z-Score. The default values are 3.5 for the upper band and -1.5 for the lower band, but you can adjust them based on your strategy.
Interpret the Z-Score: The Z-Score provides a standardized measure of how far the current price (or BPCO value) is from its historical mean, relative to the volatility. A value above the upper threshold (e.g., 3.5) may indicate overbought conditions, while a value below the lower threshold (e.g., -1.5) may indicate oversold conditions.
Use the Scaled Z-Score: The scaled Z-Score is calculated based on the original Z-Score, but it is constrained to a range between -2 and +2. When the BPCO value hits the upper threshold (3.5), the scaled Z-Score will be +2, and when it hits the lower threshold (-1.5), the scaled Z-Score will be -2. This gives you a clear, easy-to-read value to interpret the market's condition.
Data Sources:
BPCO Data: In this indicator, the BPCO value is represented by the closing price of the asset. The calculation of the Z-Score and scaled Z-Score is based on this price data, but you can modify it to incorporate other data streams as needed (e.g., specific economic indicators or custom metrics).
Indicator Calculation: The Z-Score is calculated using the following formulas:
Mean (SMA): A simple moving average of the BPCO (close price) over the selected period (365 days by default).
Standard Deviation (Std): The standard deviation of the BPCO (close price) over the same period.
Z-Score: (Current BPCO - Mean) / Standard Deviation
Scaled Z-Score: The Z-Score is normalized to fall within a specified range (from -2 to +2), based on the upper and lower threshold inputs.
Important Notes:
Customization: The indicator allows users to adjust the period (window) for calculating the Z-Score, as well as the upper and lower thresholds to suit different timeframes and trading strategies.
Visual Aids: Horizontal lines are drawn to represent the upper and lower threshold levels, making it easy to visualize when the Z-Score crosses critical levels.
Limitations: This indicator relies on historical price data (or BPCO) and assumes that the standard deviation and mean are representative of future price behavior. It does not account for potential market shifts or extreme events that may fall outside historical norms.
Pump Detector - EMA 4H + Retest H1 (Valid 10x4H bars)📈 Pump Detector – EMA 12/21 on 4H + Retest on H1
This indicator is designed to detect sudden bullish moves ("pumps") on the 4-hour timeframe, and alert traders of potential retest entry points on the 1-hour timeframe.
🔍 Pump activation conditions (on 4H):
EMA 12 crosses above EMA 21
Current volume exceeds the 20-period SMA of volume (on 4H)
When both conditions are met, a pump alert is triggered and a time window opens.
📉 Retest detection logic (on H1):
For the next 10 bars on the 4H chart (~40 hours), the indicator monitors price behavior on the 1H timeframe
If the LOW of any H1 candle touches or drops below EMA 12 or 21 (on H1), a second alert is triggered
✅ Key Features:
Draws EMA 12/21 from the 4H timeframe directly on the chart
Enforces 4H and H1 timeframes, regardless of the chart the script is applied to
One-time detection per pump window: once the 10-bar window expires, the retest alert is disabled until a new pump is detected
Ideal for capturing momentum breakouts followed by technical pullbacks
⚠️ Recommended for:
Traders looking for scalping or swing trading setups on crypto, forex, or stocks. Helps identify post-breakout entry opportunities using a structured and disciplined approach.
Rolling Beta against SPY📈 Pine Script Showcase: Rolling Beta Against SPY
Understanding how your favorite stock or ETF moves in relation to a benchmark like the S&P 500 can offer powerful insights into risk and exposure. This script calculates and visualizes the rolling beta of any asset versus the SPY ETF (which tracks the S&P 500).
🧠 What Is Beta?
Beta measures the sensitivity of an asset's returns to movements in the broader market. A beta of:
- 1.0 means the asset moves in lockstep with SPY,
- >1.0 indicates higher volatility than the market,
- <1.0 implies lower volatility or possible defensive behavior,
- <0 suggests inverse correlation (e.g., hedging instruments).
🧮 How It Works
This script computes rolling beta over a user-defined window (default = 60 periods) using classic linear regression math:
- Calculates daily returns for both the asset and SPY.
- Computes covariance between the two return streams.
- Divides by the variance of SPY returns to get beta.
⚙️ Customization
You can adjust the window size to control the smoothing:
- Shorter windows capture recent volatility changes,
- Longer windows give more stable, long-term estimates.
📊 Visual Output
The script plots the beta series dynamically, allowing you to observe how your asset’s correlation to SPY evolves over time. This is especially useful in regime-change environments or during major macroeconomic shifts.
💡 Use Cases
- Portfolio construction: Understand how your assets co-move with the market.
- Risk management: Detect when beta spikes—potentially signaling higher market sensitivity.
- Market timing: Use beta shifts to infer changing investor sentiment or market structure.
📌 Pro Tip: Combine this rolling beta with volatility, Sharpe ratio, or correlation tracking for a more robust factor-based analysis.
Ready to add a layer of quantitative insight to your chart? Add the script to your watchlist and start analyzing your favorite tickers against SPY today!
Half Causal EstimatorOverview
The Half Causal Estimator is a specialized filtering method that provides responsive averages of market variables (volume, true range, or price change) with significantly reduced time delay compared to traditional moving averages. It employs a hybrid approach that leverages both historical data and time-of-day patterns to create a timely representation of market activity while maintaining smooth output.
Core Concept
Traditional moving averages suffer from time lag, which can delay signals and reduce their effectiveness for real-time decision making. The Half Causal Estimator addresses this limitation by using a non-causal filtering method that incorporates recent historical data (the causal component) alongside expected future behavior based on time-of-day patterns (the non-causal component).
This dual approach allows the filter to respond more quickly to changing market conditions while maintaining smoothness. The name "Half Causal" refers to this hybrid methodology—half of the data window comes from actual historical observations, while the other half is derived from time-of-day patterns observed over multiple days. By incorporating these "future" values from past patterns, the estimator can reduce the inherent lag present in traditional moving averages.
How It Works
The indicator operates through several coordinated steps. First, it stores and organizes market data by specific times of day (minutes/hours). Then it builds a profile of typical behavior for each time period. For calculations, it creates a filtering window where half consists of recent actual data and half consists of expected future values based on historical time-of-day patterns. Finally, it applies a kernel-based smoothing function to weight the values in this composite window.
This approach is particularly effective because market variables like volume, true range, and price changes tend to follow recognizable intraday patterns (they are positive values without DC components). By leveraging these patterns, the indicator doesn't try to predict future values in the traditional sense, but rather incorporates the average historical behavior at those future times into the current estimate.
The benefit of using this "average future data" approach is that it counteracts the lag inherent in traditional moving averages. In a standard moving average, recent price action is underweighted because older data points hold equal influence. By incorporating time-of-day averages for future periods, the Half Causal Estimator essentially shifts the center of the filter window closer to the current bar, resulting in more timely outputs while maintaining smoothing benefits.
Understanding Kernel Smoothing
At the heart of the Half Causal Estimator is kernel smoothing, a statistical technique that creates weighted averages where points closer to the center receive higher weights. This approach offers several advantages over simple moving averages. Unlike simple moving averages that weight all points equally, kernel smoothing applies a mathematically defined weight distribution. The weighting function helps minimize the impact of outliers and random fluctuations. Additionally, by adjusting the kernel width parameter, users can fine-tune the balance between responsiveness and smoothness.
The indicator supports three kernel types. The Gaussian kernel uses a bell-shaped distribution that weights central points heavily while still considering distant points. The Epanechnikov kernel employs a parabolic function that provides efficient noise reduction with a finite support range. The Triangular kernel applies a linear weighting that decreases uniformly from center to edges. These kernel functions provide the mathematical foundation for how the filter processes the combined window of past and "future" data points.
Applicable Data Sources
The indicator can be applied to three different data sources: volume (the trading volume of the security), true range (expressed as a percentage, measuring volatility), and change (the absolute percentage change from one closing price to the next).
Each of these variables shares the characteristic of being consistently positive and exhibiting cyclical intraday patterns, making them ideal candidates for this filtering approach.
Practical Applications
The Half Causal Estimator excels in scenarios where timely information is crucial. It helps in identifying volume climaxes or diminishing volume trends earlier than conventional indicators. It can detect changes in volatility patterns with reduced lag. The indicator is also useful for recognizing shifts in price momentum before they become obvious in price action, and providing smoother data for algorithmic trading systems that require reduced noise without sacrificing timeliness.
When volatility or volume spikes occur, conventional moving averages typically lag behind, potentially causing missed opportunities or delayed responses. The Half Causal Estimator produces signals that align more closely with actual market turns.
Technical Implementation
The implementation of the Half Causal Estimator involves several technical components working together. Data collection and organization is the first step—the indicator maintains a data structure that organizes market data by specific times of day. This creates a historical record of how volume, true range, or price change typically behaves at each minute/hour of the trading day.
For each calculation, the indicator constructs a composite window consisting of recent actual data points from the current session (the causal half) and historical averages for upcoming time periods from previous sessions (the non-causal half). The selected kernel function is then applied to this composite window, creating a weighted average where points closer to the center receive higher weights according to the mathematical properties of the chosen kernel. Finally, the kernel weights are normalized to ensure the output maintains proper scaling regardless of the kernel type or width parameter.
This framework enables the indicator to leverage the predictable time-of-day components in market data without trying to predict specific future values. Instead, it uses average historical patterns to reduce lag while maintaining the statistical benefits of smoothing techniques.
Configuration Options
The indicator provides several customization options. The data period setting determines the number of days of observations to store (0 uses all available data). Filter length controls the number of historical data points for the filter (total window size is length × 2 - 1). Filter width adjusts the width of the kernel function. Users can also select between Gaussian, Epanechnikov, and Triangular kernel functions, and customize visual settings such as colors and line width.
These parameters allow for fine-tuning the balance between responsiveness and smoothness based on individual trading preferences and the specific characteristics of the traded instrument.
Limitations
The indicator requires minute-based intraday timeframes, securities with volume data (when using volume as the source), and sufficient historical data to establish time-of-day patterns.
Conclusion
The Half Causal Estimator represents an innovative approach to technical analysis that addresses one of the fundamental limitations of traditional indicators: time lag. By incorporating time-of-day patterns into its calculations, it provides a more timely representation of market variables while maintaining the noise-reduction benefits of smoothing. This makes it a valuable tool for traders who need to make decisions based on real-time information about volume, volatility, or price changes.
[SHORT ONLY] Consecutive Bars Above MA Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "Consecutive Bars Above MA Strategy" is a contrarian trading system aimed at exploiting overextended bullish moves in stocks and ETFs. It monitors the number of consecutive bars that close above a chosen short-term moving average (which can be either a Simple Moving Average or an Exponential Moving Average). Once the count reaches a preset threshold and the current bar’s close exceeds the previous bar’s high within a designated trading window, a short entry is initiated. An optional EMA filter further refines entries by requiring that the current close is below the 200-period EMA, helping to ensure that trades are taken in a bearish environment.
█ HOW ARE THE CONSECUTIVE BULLISH COUNTS CALCULATED?
The strategy utilizes a counter variable, `bullCount`, to track consecutive bullish bars based on their relation to the short-term moving average. Here’s how the count is determined:
Initialize the Counter
The counter is initialized at the start:
var int bullCount = na
Bullish Bar Detection
For each bar, if the close is above the selected moving average (either SMA or EMA, based on user input), the counter is incremented:
bullCount := close > signalMa ? (na(bullCount) ? 1 : bullCount + 1) : 0
Reset on Non-Bullish Condition
If the close does not exceed the moving average, the counter resets to zero, indicating a break in the consecutive bullish streak.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. SHORT ENTRY
A short signal is generated when:
The number of consecutive bullish bars (i.e., bars closing above the short-term MA) meets or exceeds the defined threshold (default: 3).
The current bar’s close is higher than the previous bar’s high.
The signal occurs within the specified trading window (between Start Time and End Time).
Additionally, if the EMA filter is enabled, the entry is only executed when the current close is below the 200-period EMA.
2. EXIT CONDITION
An exit signal is triggered when the current close falls below the previous bar’s low, prompting the strategy to close the short position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Threshold: The number of consecutive bullish bars required to trigger a short entry (default is 3).
Trading Window: The Start Time and End Time inputs define when the strategy is active.
Moving Average Settings: Choose between SMA and EMA, and set the MA length (default is 5), which is used to assess each bar’s bullish condition.
EMA Filter (Optional): When enabled, this filter requires that the current close is below the 200-period EMA, supporting entries in a downtrend.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed for stocks and ETFs and can be applied across various timeframes.
It seeks to capture mean reversion by shorting after a series of bullish bars suggests an overextended move.
The approach employs a contrarian short entry by waiting for a breakout (close > previous high) following consecutive bullish bars.
The adjustable moving average settings and optional EMA filter allow for further optimization based on market conditions.
Comprehensive backtesting is recommended to fine-tune the threshold, moving average parameters, and filter settings for optimal performance.
Liquidity ZonesLiquidity Zones Indicator
The Liquidity Zones indicator is a custom Pine Script™ tool designed to identify significant price levels where high trading volume has occurred. These zones often act as support or resistance levels, providing valuable insights for traders.
Key Features:
Window Size: The number of bars to consider for calculating the moving averages and identifying peaks.
Tolerance: The allowable percentage difference to consider peaks as unique.
Number of Peaks: The maximum number of significant peaks to identify.
Minimum Volume: The minimum volume threshold relative to the average volume to consider a peak.
Minimum Range: The minimum price range to consider a peak.
How It Works:
Input Parameters: The user can customize the window size, tolerance, number of peaks, minimum volume, and minimum range.
Moving Averages: The script calculates the simple moving average (SMA) of the volume and closing prices over the specified window.
Peak Identification:
For each bar, the script identifies the bar with the highest volume within the window.
It checks if the volume exceeds the minimum volume threshold.
It determines the peak price based on whether the bar closed higher or lower than it opened.
It ensures the price range of the bar exceeds the minimum range.
It checks if the peak is above the SMA of the closing prices.
It verifies the peak is unique within the specified tolerance.
Plotting Peaks: The identified peaks are plotted on the chart with lines and labels, color-coded based on whether the bar closed higher (green) or lower (red).
This indicator helps traders visualize key liquidity zones, aiding in making informed trading decisions.
SPY/TLT Strategy█ STRATEGY OVERVIEW
The "SPY/TLT Strategy" is a trend-following crossover strategy designed to trade the relationship between TLT and its Simple Moving Average (SMA). The default configuration uses TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) with a 20-period SMA, entering long positions on bullish crossovers and exiting on bearish crossunders. **This strategy is NOT optimized and performs best in trending markets.**
█ KEY FEATURES
SMA Crossover System: Uses price/SMA relationship for signal generation (Default: 20-period)
Dynamic Time Window: Configurable backtesting period (Default: 2014-2099)
Equity-Based Position Sizing: Default 100% equity allocation per trade
Real-Time Visual Feedback: Price/SMA plot with trend-state background coloring
Event-Driven Execution: Processes orders at bar close for accurate backtesting
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY CONDITION
TLT closing price crosses ABOVE SMA
Occurs within specified time window
Generates market order at next bar open
2. EXIT CONDITION
TLT closing price crosses BELOW SMA
Closes all open positions immediately
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
SMA Period: Simple Moving Average length (Default: 20)
Start Time and End Time: The time window for trade execution (Default: 1 Jan 2014 - 1 Jan 2099)
Security Symbol: Ticker for analysis (Default: TLT)
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
Ideal Market Conditions: Strong trending environments
Potential Drawbacks: Whipsaws in range-bound markets
Backtesting results should be analyzed to optimize the MA Period and EMA Filter settings for specific instruments
Dynamic Score PSAR [QuantAlgo]Dynamic Score PSAR 📈🧬
The Dynamic Score PSAR by QuantAlgo introduces an innovative approach to trend detection by utilizing a dynamic trend scoring technique in combination with the Parabolic SAR. This method goes beyond traditional trend-following indicators by evaluating market momentum through a scoring system that analyzes price behavior over a customizable window. By dynamically adjusting to evolving market conditions, this indicator provides clearer, more adaptive trend signals that help traders and investors anticipate market reversals and capitalize on momentum shifts with greater precision.
💫 Conceptual Foundation and Innovation
At the core of the Dynamic Score PSAR is the dynamic trend score system, which assesses price movements by comparing normalized PSAR values across a range of historical data points. This dynamic trend scoring technique offers a unique, probabilistic approach to trend analysis by evaluating how the current market compares to past price movements. Unlike traditional PSAR indicators that rely on static parameters, this scoring mechanism allows the indicator to adjust in real time to market fluctuations, offering traders and investors a more responsive and insightful view of trends. This innovation makes the Dynamic Score PSAR particularly effective in detecting shifts in momentum and potential reversals, even in volatile or complex market environments.
✨ Technical Composition and Calculation
The Dynamic Score PSAR is composed of several advanced components designed to provide a higher probability of detecting accurate trend shifts. The key innovation lies in the dynamic trend scoring technique, which iterates over historical PSAR values and evaluates price momentum through a dynamic scoring system. By comparing the current normalized PSAR value with previous data points over a user-defined window, the system generates a score that reflects the strength and direction of the trend. This allows for a more refined and responsive detection of trends compared to static, traditional indicators.
To enhance clarity, the PSAR values are normalized against an Exponential Moving Average (EMA), providing a standardized framework for comparison. This normalization ensures that the indicator adapts dynamically to market conditions, making it more effective in volatile markets. The smoothing process reduces noise, helping traders and investors focus on significant trend signals.
Additionally, users can adjust the length of the data window and the sensitivity thresholds for detecting uptrends and downtrends, providing flexibility for different trading and investing environments.
📈 Features and Practical Applications
Customizable Window Length: Adjust the window length to control the indicator’s sensitivity to recent price movements. This provides flexibility for short-term or long-term trend analysis.
Uptrend/Downtrend Thresholds: Set customizable thresholds for identifying uptrends and downtrends. These thresholds define when trend signals are triggered, offering adaptability to different market conditions.
Bar Coloring and Gradient Visualization: Visual cues, including color-coded bars and gradient fills, make it easier to interpret market trends and identify key moments for potential trend reversals.
Momentum Confirmation: The dynamic trend scoring system evaluates price action over time, providing a probabilistic measure of market momentum to confirm the strength and direction of a trend.
⚡️ How to Use
✅ Add the Indicator: Add the Dynamic Score PSAR to your favourites, then to your chart and adjust the PSAR settings, window length, and trend thresholds to match your preferences. Customize the sensitivity to price movements by tweaking the window length and thresholds for different market conditions.
👀 Monitor Trend Shifts: Watch for trend changes as the normalized PSAR values cross key thresholds, and use the dynamic score to confirm the strength and direction of trends. Bar coloring and background fills visually highlight key moments for trend shifts, making it easier to spot reversals.
🔔 Set Alerts: Configure alerts for significant trend crossovers and reversals, ensuring you can act on market movements promptly, even when you’re not actively monitoring the charts.
🌟 Summary and Usage Tips
The Dynamic Score PSAR by QuantAlgo is a powerful tool that combines traditional trend-following techniques with the flexibility of a dynamic trend scoring system. This innovative approach provides clearer, more adaptive trend signals, reducing the risk of false entries and exits while helping traders and investors capture significant market moves. The ability to adjust the indicator’s sensitivity and thresholds makes it versatile across different trading and investing environments, whether you’re focused on short-term pivots or long-term trend reversals. To maximize its effectiveness, fine-tune the sensitivity settings based on current market conditions and use the visual cues to confirm trend shifts.
Correlation Clusters [LuxAlgo]The Correlation Clusters is a machine learning tool that allows traders to group sets of tickers with a similar correlation coefficient to a user-set reference ticker.
The tool calculates the correlation coefficients between 10 user-set tickers and a user-set reference ticker, with the possibility of forming up to 10 clusters.
🔶 USAGE
Applying clustering methods to correlation analysis allows traders to quickly identify which set of tickers are correlated with a reference ticker, rather than having to look at them one by one or using a more tedious approach such as correlation matrices.
Tickers belonging to a cluster may also be more likely to have a higher mutual correlation. The image above shows the detailed parts of the Correlation Clusters tool.
The correlation coefficient between two assets allows traders to see how these assets behave in relation to each other. It can take values between +1.0 and -1.0 with the following meaning
Value near +1.0: Both assets behave in a similar way, moving up or down at the same time
Value close to 0.0: No correlation, both assets behave independently
Value near -1.0: Both assets have opposite behavior when one moves up the other moves down, and vice versa
There is a wide range of trading strategies that make use of correlation coefficients between assets, some examples are:
Pair Trading: Traders may wish to take advantage of divergences in the price movements of highly positively correlated assets; even highly positively correlated assets do not always move in the same direction; when assets with a correlation close to +1.0 diverge in their behavior, traders may see this as an opportunity to buy one and sell the other in the expectation that the assets will return to the likely same price behavior.
Sector rotation: Traders may want to favor some sectors that are expected to perform in the next cycle, tracking the correlation between different sectors and between the sector and the overall market.
Diversification: Traders can aim to have a diversified portfolio of uncorrelated assets. From a risk management perspective, it is useful to know the correlation between the assets in your portfolio, if you hold equal positions in positively correlated assets, your risk is tilted in the same direction, so if the assets move against you, your risk is doubled. You can avoid this increased risk by choosing uncorrelated assets so that they move independently.
Hedging: Traders may want to hedge positions with correlated assets, from a hedging perspective, if you are long an asset, you can hedge going long a negatively correlated asset or going short a positively correlated asset.
Grouping different assets with similar behavior can be very helpful to traders to avoid over-exposure to those assets, traders may have multiple long positions on different assets as a way of minimizing overall risk when in reality if those assets are part of the same cluster traders are maximizing their risk by taking positions on assets with the same behavior.
As a rule of thumb, a trader can minimize risk via diversification by taking positions on assets with no correlations, the proposed tool can effectively show a set of uncorrelated candidates from the reference ticker if one or more clusters centroids are located near 0.
🔶 DETAILS
K-means clustering is a popular machine-learning algorithm that finds observations in a data set that are similar to each other and places them in a group.
The process starts by randomly assigning each data point to an initial group and calculating the centroid for each. A centroid is the center of the group. K-means clustering forms the groups in such a way that the variances between the data points and the centroid of the cluster are minimized.
It's an unsupervised method because it starts without labels and then forms and labels groups itself.
🔹 Execution Window
In the image above we can see how different execution windows provide different correlation coefficients, informing traders of the different behavior of the same assets over different time periods.
Users can filter the data used to calculate correlations by number of bars, by time, or not at all, using all available data. For example, if the chart timeframe is 15m, traders may want to know how different assets behave over the last 7 days (one week), or for an hourly chart set an execution window of one month, or one year for a daily chart. The default setting is to use data from the last 50 bars.
🔹 Clusters
On this graph, we can see different clusters for the same data. The clusters are identified by different colors and the dotted lines show the centroids of each cluster.
Traders can select up to 10 clusters, however, do note that selecting 10 clusters can lead to only 4 or 5 returned clusters, this is caused by the machine learning algorithm not detecting any more data points deviating from already detected clusters.
Traders can fine-tune the algorithm by changing the 'Cluster Threshold' and 'Max Iterations' settings, but if you are not familiar with them we advise you not to change these settings, the defaults can work fine for the application of this tool.
🔹 Correlations
Different correlations mean different behaviors respecting the same asset, as we can see in the chart above.
All correlations are found against the same asset, traders can use the chart ticker or manually set one of their choices from the settings panel. Then they can select the 10 tickers to be used to find the correlation coefficients, which can be useful to analyze how different types of assets behave against the same asset.
🔶 SETTINGS
Execution Window Mode: Choose how the tool collects data, filter data by number of bars, time, or no filtering at all, using all available data.
Execute on Last X Bars: Number of bars for data collection when the 'Bars' execution window mode is active.
Execute on Last: Time window for data collection when the `Time` execution window mode is active. These are full periods, so `Day` means the last 24 hours, `Week` means the last 7 days, and so on.
🔹 Clusters
Number of Clusters: Number of clusters to detect up to 10. Only clusters with data points are displayed.
Cluster Threshold: Number used to compare a new centroid within the same cluster. The lower the number, the more accurate the centroid will be.
Max Iterations: Maximum number of calculations to detect a cluster. A high value may lead to a timeout runtime error (loop takes too long).
🔹 Ticker of Reference
Use Chart Ticker as Reference: Enable/disable the use of the current chart ticker to get the correlation against all other tickers selected by the user.
Custom Ticker: Custom ticker to get the correlation against all the other tickers selected by the user.
🔹 Correlation Tickers
Select the 10 tickers for which you wish to obtain the correlation against the reference ticker.
🔹 Style
Text Size: Select the size of the text to be displayed.
Display Size: Select the size of the correlation chart to be displayed, up to 500 bars.
Box Height: Select the height of the boxes to be displayed. A high height will cause overlapping if the boxes are close together.
Clusters Colors: Choose a custom colour for each cluster.
Fusion MFI RSIHello fellas,
This superb indicator summons two monsters called Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) and plays the Yu-Gi-Oh! card "Polymerization" to combine them.
Overview
The Fusion MFI RSI Indicator is an advanced analytical tool designed to provide a nuanced understanding of market dynamics by combining the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI). Enhanced with sophisticated smoothing techniques and the Inverse Fisher Transform (IFT), this indicator excels in identifying key market conditions such as overbought and oversold states, trends, and potential reversal points.
Key Features (Brief Overview)
Fusion of RSI and MFI: Integrates momentum and volume for a comprehensive market analysis.
Advanced Smoothing Techniques: Employs Hann Window, Jurik Moving Average (JMA), T3 Smoothing, and Super Smoother to refine signals.
Inverse Fisher Transform (IFT) Enhances the clarity and distinctiveness of indicator outputs.
Detailed Feature Analysis
Fusion of RSI and MFI
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., the RSI measures the speed and magnitude of directional price movements. Wilder recommended using a 14-day period and identified overbought conditions above 70 and oversold conditions below 30.
MFI (Money Flow Index): Created by Gene Quong and Avrum Soudack, the MFI combines price and volume to measure trading pressure. It is typically calculated using a 14-day period, with over 80 considered overbought and under 20 as oversold.
Application in Fusion: By combining RSI and MFI, the indicator leverages RSI's sensitivity to price changes with MFI's volume-weighted confirmation, providing a robust analysis tool. This combination is particularly effective in confirming the strength behind price movements, making the signals more reliable.
Advanced Smoothing Techniques
Hann Window: Traditionally used to reduce the abrupt data discontinuities at the edges of a sample, it is applied here to smooth the price data.
Jurik Moving Average (JMA): Known for preserving the timing and smoothness of the data, JMA reduces market noise effectively without significant lag.
T3 Smoothing: Developed to respond quickly to market changes, T3 provides a smoother response to price fluctuations.
Super Smoother: Filters out high-frequency noise while retaining important trends.
Application in Fusion: These techniques are chosen to refine the output of the combined RSI and MFI values, ensuring the indicator remains responsive yet stable, providing clearer and more actionable signals.
Inverse Fisher Transform (IFT):
Developed by John Ehlers, the IFT transforms oscillator outputs to enhance the clarity of extreme values. This is particularly useful in this fusion indicator to make critical turning points more distinct and actionable.
Mathematical Calculations for the Fusion MFI RSI Indicator
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The RSI is calculated using the following steps:
Average Gain and Average Loss: First, determine the average gain and average loss over the specified period (typically 14 days). This is done by summing all the gains and losses over the period and then dividing each by the period.
Average Gain = (Sum of Gains over the past 14 periods) / 14
Average Loss = (Sum of Losses over the past 14 periods) / 14
Relative Strength (RS): This is the ratio of average gain to average loss.
RS = Average Gain / Average Loss
RSI: Finally, the RSI is calculated using the RS value:
RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS))
MFI (Money Flow Index)
The MFI is calculated using several steps that incorporate both price and volume:
Typical Price: Calculate the typical price for each period.
Typical Price = (High + Low + Close) / 3
Raw Money Flow: Multiply the typical price by the volume for the period.
Raw Money Flow = Typical Price * Volume
Positive and Negative Money Flow: Compare the typical price of the current period to the previous period to determine if the money flow is positive or negative.
If today's Typical Price > Yesterday's Typical Price, then Positive Money Flow = Raw Money Flow; Negative Money Flow = 0
If today's Typical Price < Yesterday's Typical Price, then Negative Money Flow = Raw Money Flow; Positive Money Flow = 0
Money Flow Ratio: Calculate the ratio of the sum of Positive Money Flows to the sum of Negative Money Flows over the past 14 periods.
Money Flow Ratio = (Sum of Positive Money Flows over 14 periods) / (Sum of Negative Money Flows over 14 periods)
MFI: Finally, calculate the MFI using the Money Flow Ratio.
MFI = 100 - (100 / (1 + Money Flow Ratio))
Fusion of RSI and MFI
The final Fusion MFI RSI value could be calculated by averaging the IFT-transformed values of RSI and MFI, providing a single oscillator value that reflects both momentum and volume-weighted price action:
Fusion MFI RSI = (MFI weight * MFI) + (RSI weight * RSI)
Suggested Settings and Trading Rules
Original Usage
RSI: Wilder suggested buying when the RSI moves above 30 from below (enter long) and selling when the RSI moves below 70 from above (enter short). He recommended exiting long positions when the RSI reaches 70 or higher and exiting short positions when the RSI falls below 30.
MFI: Quong and Soudack recommended buying when the MFI is below 20 and starts rising (enter long), and selling when it is above 80 and starts declining (enter short). They suggested exiting long positions when the MFI reaches 80 or higher and exiting short positions when the MFI falls below 20.
Fusion Application
Settings: Use a 14-day period for this indicator's calculations to maintain consistency with the original settings suggested by the inventors.
Trading Rules:
Enter Long Signal: Consider entering a long position when both RSI and MFI are below their respective oversold levels and begin to rise. This indicates strong buying pressure supported by both price momentum and volume.
Exit Long Signal: Exit the long position when either RSI or MFI reaches its respective overbought threshold, suggesting a potential reversal or decrease in buying pressure.
Enter Short Signal: Consider entering a short position when both indicators are above their respective overbought levels and begin to decline, suggesting that selling pressure is mounting.
Exit Short Signal: Exit the short position when either RSI or MFI falls below its respective oversold threshold, indicating diminishing selling pressure and a potential upward reversal.
How to Use the Indicator
Select Source and Timeframe: Choose the data source and the timeframe for analysis.
Configure Fusion Settings: Adjust the weights for RSI and MFI.
Choose Smoothing Technique: Select and configure the desired smoothing method to suit the market conditions and personal preference.
Enable Fisherization: Optionally apply the Inverse Fisher Transform to enhance signal clarity.
Customize Visualization: Set up gradient coloring, background plots, and bands according to your preferences.
Interpret the Indicator: Use the Fusion value and visual cues to identify market conditions and potential trading opportunities.
Conclusion
The Fusion MFI RSI Indicator integrates classical and modern technical analysis concepts to provide a comprehensive tool for market analysis. By combining RSI and MFI with advanced smoothing techniques and the Inverse Fisher Transform, this indicator offers enhanced insights, aiding traders in making more informed and timely trading decisions. Customize the settings to align with your trading strategy and leverage this powerful tool to navigate financial markets effectively.
Best regards,
simwai
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Credits to:
@loxx – T3
@everget – JMA
@cheatcountry – Hann Window
Anchored Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection [LuxAlgo]The Anchored Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection tool randomly simulates future price points based on historical bar movements made before a user-anchored point in time.
By anchoring our data and projections to a single point in time, users can better understand and reflect on how the price played out while taking into consideration our random simulations.
🔶 USAGE
After selecting the indicator to apply to the chart, you will be prompted to "Set the Anchor Point". Do so by clicking on the desired location on your chart, only time is used as the anchor point.
Note: To select a new anchor point when applied to the chart, click on the 'More' dropdown next to the indicator status bar (○○○), then select "Reset points...".
Alternate Method: You are also able to click and drag the vertical line that displays on the anchor point bar when the indicator is highlighted.
By randomly simulating bar movements, a range is developed of potential price action which could be utilized to locate future price development as well as potential support/resistance levels.
Performing numerous simulations and taking the average at each step will converge toward the result highlighted by the "Average Line", and can point out where the price might develop, assuming the trend and amount of volatility persist.
Current closing price + Sum of changes in the calculation window
This constraint will cause the simulations always to display an endpoint consistent with the current lookback's slope.
While this may be helpful to some traders, this indicator includes an option to produce a less biased range, as seen below:
🔶 DETAILS
The Anchored Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection tool creates simulations based on prices within a user-set lookback window originating at the specified anchor point. Simulations are done as follows:
Collect each bar's price changes in the user-set window.
Randomize the order of each change in the window.
Project the cumulative sum of the shuffled changes from the current closing price.
Collect data on each point along the way.
This is the process for the Default calculation; for the 'Randomize Direction' calculation, when added onto the front for every other change, the value is inverted, creating the randomized endpoints for each simulation.
The script contains each simulation's data for that bar, with a maximum of 1000 simulations.
To get a glimpse behind the scenes, each simulation (up to 99) can be viewed using the 'Visualize Simulations' Options, as seen below.
Because the script holds the full simulation data, the script can also calculate this data, such as standard deviations.
In this script the Standard deviation lines are the average of all standard deviations across the vertical data groups, this provides a singular value that can be displayed a distance away from the simulation center line.
🔶 SETTINGS
Lookback: Sets the number of Bars to include in calculations.
Simulation Count: Sets the number of randomized simulations to calculate. (Max 1000)
Randomize Direction: See Details Above. Creates a more 'Normalized' Distribution
Visualize Simulations: See Details Above. Turns on Visualizations, and colors are randomly generated. Visualized max does not cap the calculated max. If 1000 simulations are used, the data will be from 1000 simulations, however, only the last 99 simulations will be visualized.
🔹 Standard Deviations
Standard Deviation Multiplier: Sets the multiplier to use for the Standard Deviation distance away from the center line.
🔹 Style
Extend Lines: Extends the Simulated Value Lines into the future for further reference and analysis.
Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection [LuxAlgo]The Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection tool randomly simulates future price points based on historical bar movements made within a user-selected window.
The tool shows potential paths price might take in the future, as well as highlighting potential support/resistance levels.
Note that simulations and their resulting elements are subject to slight changes over time.
🔶 USAGE
By randomly simulating bar movements, a range is developed of potential price action which could be utilized to locate future price development as well as potential support/resistance levels.
Performing a large number of simulations and taking the average at each step will converge toward the result highlighted by the "Average Line", and can point out where the price might develop assuming the trend and amount of volatility persist.
Current closing price + Sum of changes in the calculation window)
This constraint will cause the simulations to always display an endpoint consistent with the current lookback's slope.
While this may be helpful to some traders, this indicator includes an option to produce a less biased range as seen below:
🔶 DETAILS
The Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection tool creates simulations based on the most recent prices within a user-set window. Simulations are done as follows:
Collect each bar's price changes in the user-set window.
Randomize the order of each change in the window.
Project the cumulative sum of the shuffled changes from the current closing price.
Collect data on each point along the way.
This is the process for the Default calculation, for the 'Randomize Direction' calculation, when added onto the front for every other change, the value is inverted, creating the randomized endpoints for each simulation.
The script contains each simulation's data for that bar with a maximum of 1000 simulations.
To get a glimpse behind the scenes each simulation (up to 99) can be viewed using the 'Visualize Simulations' Options as seen below.
Because the script holds the full simulation data, the script can also do calculations on this data, such as calculating standard deviations.
In this script the Standard deviation lines are the average of all standard deviations across the vertical data groups, this provides a singular value that can be displayed a distance away from the simulation center line.
🔶 SETTINGS
Color and Toggle Options are Provided throughout.
Lookback: Sets the number of Bars to include in calculations.
Simulation Count: Sets the number of randomized simulations to calculate. (Max 1000)
Randomize Direction: See Details Above. Creates a more 'Normalized' Distribution
Visualize Simulations: See Details Above. Turns on Visualizations, and colors are randomly generated. Visualized max does not cap the calculated max. If 1000 simulations are used, the data will be from 1000 simulations, however only the last 99 simulations will be visualized.
Standard Deviation Multiplier: Sets the multiplier to use for the Standard Deviation distance away from the center line.
Machine Learning : Torben's Moving Median KNN BandsWhat is Median Filtering ?
Median filtering is a non-linear digital filtering technique, often used to remove noise from an image or signal. Such noise reduction is a typical pre-processing step to improve the results of later processing (for example, edge detection on an image). Median filtering is very widely used in digital image processing because, under certain conditions, it preserves edges while removing noise (but see the discussion below), also having applications in signal processing.
The main idea of the median filter is to run through the signal entry by entry, replacing each entry with the median of neighboring entries. The pattern of neighbors is called the "window", which slides, entry by entry, over the entire signal. For one-dimensional signals, the most obvious window is just the first few preceding and following entries, whereas for two-dimensional (or higher-dimensional) data the window must include all entries within a given radius or ellipsoidal region (i.e. the median filter is not a separable filter).
The median filter works by taking the median of all the pixels in a neighborhood around the current pixel. The median is the middle value in a sorted list of numbers. This means that the median filter is not sensitive to the order of the pixels in the neighborhood, and it is not affected by outliers (very high or very low values).
The median filter is a very effective way to remove noise from images. It can remove both salt and pepper noise (random white and black pixels) and Gaussian noise (randomly distributed pixels with a Gaussian distribution). The median filter is also very good at preserving edges, which is why it is often used as a pre-processing step for edge detection.
However, the median filter can also blur images. This is because the median filter replaces each pixel with the value of the median of its neighbors. This can cause the edges of objects in the image to be smoothed out. The amount of blurring depends on the size of the window used by the median filter. A larger window will blur more than a smaller window.
The median filter is a very versatile tool that can be used for a variety of tasks in image processing. It is a good choice for removing noise and preserving edges, but it can also blur images. The best way to use the median filter is to experiment with different window sizes to find the setting that produces the desired results.
What is this Indicator ?
K-nearest neighbors (KNN) is a simple, non-parametric machine learning algorithm that can be used for both classification and regression tasks. The basic idea behind KNN is to find the K most similar data points to a new data point and then use the labels of those K data points to predict the label of the new data point.
Torben's moving median is a variation of the median filter that is used to remove noise from images. The median filter works by replacing each pixel in an image with the median of its neighbors. Torben's moving median works in a similar way, but it also averages the values of the neighbors. This helps to reduce the amount of blurring that can occur with the median filter.
KNN over Torben's moving median is a hybrid algorithm that combines the strengths of both KNN and Torben's moving median. KNN is able to learn the underlying distribution of the data, while Torben's moving median is able to remove noise from the data. This combination can lead to better performance than either algorithm on its own.
To implement KNN over Torben's moving median, we first need to choose a value for K. The value of K controls how many neighbors are used to predict the label of a new data point. A larger value of K will make the algorithm more robust to noise, but it will also make the algorithm less sensitive to local variations in the data.
Once we have chosen a value for K, we need to train the algorithm on a dataset of labeled data points. The training dataset will be used to learn the underlying distribution of the data.
Once the algorithm is trained, we can use it to predict the labels of new data points. To do this, we first need to find the K most similar data points to the new data point. We can then use the labels of those K data points to predict the label of the new data point.
KNN over Torben's moving median is a simple, yet powerful algorithm that can be used for a variety of tasks. It is particularly well-suited for tasks where the data is noisy or where the underlying distribution of the data is unknown.
Here are some of the advantages of using KNN over Torben's moving median:
KNN is able to learn the underlying distribution of the data.
KNN is robust to noise.
KNN is not sensitive to local variations in the data.
Here are some of the disadvantages of using KNN over Torben's moving median:
KNN can be computationally expensive for large datasets.
KNN can be sensitive to the choice of K.
KNN can be slow to train.
TASC 2021.11 MADH Moving Average Difference, Hann█ OVERVIEW
Presented here is code for the "Moving Average Difference, Hann" indicator originally conceived by John Ehlers. The code is also published in the November 2021 issue of Trader's Tips by Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities (TASC) magazine.
█ CONCEPTS
By employing a Hann windowed finite impulse response filter (FIR), John Ehlers has enhanced the Moving Average Difference (MAD) to provide an oscillator with exceptional smoothness.
Of notable mention, the wave form of MADH resembles Ehlers' "Reverse EMA" Indicator, formerly revealed in the September 2017 issue of TASC. Many variations of the "Reverse EMA" were published in TradingView's Public Library.
█ FEATURES
Three values in the script's "Settings/Inputs" provide control over the oscillators behavior:
• The price source
• A "Short Length" with a default of 8, to manage the lower band edge of the oscillator
• The "Dominant Cycle", originally set at 27, which appears to be a placeholder for an adaptive control mechanism
Two coloring options are provided for the line's fill:
• "ZeroCross", the default, uses the line's position above/below the zero level. This is the mode used in the top version of MADH on this chart.
• "Momentum" uses the line's up/down state, as shown in the bottom version of the indicator on the chart.
█ NOTES
Calculations
The source price is used in two independent Hann windowed FIR filters having two different periods (lengths) of historical observation for calculation, one being a "Short Length" and the other termed "Dominant Cycle". These are then passed to a "rate of change" calculation and then returned by the reusable function. The secret sauce is that a "windowed Hann FIR filter" is superior tp a generic SMA filter, and that ultimately reveals Ehlers' clever enhancement. We'll have to wait and see what ingenuities Ehlers has next to unleash. Stay tuned...
The `madh()` function code was optimized for computational efficiency in Pine, differing visibly from Ehlers' original formula, but yielding the same results as Ehlers' version.
Background
This indicator has a sibling indicator discussed in the "The MAD Indicator, Enhanced" article by Ehlers. MADH is an evolutionary update from the prior MAD indicator code published in the October 2021 issue of TASC.
Sibling Indicators
• Moving Average Difference (MAD)
• Cycle/Trend Analytics
Related Information
• Cycle/Trend Analytics And The MAD Indicator
• The Reverse EMA Indicator
• Hann Window
• ROC
Join TradingView!
Alma Moving Average Ribbon Reverse Length [DM]Greetings Colleagues
Following some recommendations and ideas I share this moving average, put all of them together
The length calculation is automatic there is only one input.
The length is inverse so it will wrap from the longest reference point, hence using phi
Moving averages will wrap around the price.
I've also added gradient color to plots and fill plots
There is an alert selector in case you are interested in a particular crossing, "remember that the order is reversed".
There is an alert visual plotshapes with offset signal.
Finally, after spending a few hours with the Williams alligator moving averages I found nothing special, but I added the individual offset adjustment for each moving average in case someone comes up with something.
Enjoy”
Some references about alma by "tradingview pinecoders"
What to look for
The Arnaud Legoux Moving Average has three elements to it:
Window: This element is the period. By default, the window is set to 9 periods, but it can be customized to fit any trading style.
Offset: This element is the Gaussian that is applied to the combo line and can be aligned to the current price. It’s default is set to 0.85, but by setting it to 1, you can make it align fully to the current price (similar to how an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with a setting of 0 is like a Simple Moving Average (SMA)). 0.85 is what is recommended, however, you can customize it like with the window element.
Sigma: This element is a standard deviation that is applied to the combo line in order for it to appear more sharp. The default is set to 6 and it is not recommended to change the setting. The value of 6 is inspired by the Six Sigma process.
www.tradingview.com
[blackcat] L2 Ehlers FilterLevel: 2
Background
John F. Ehlers introuced Ehlers Filter in his "Rocket Science for Traders" chapter 18 on 2001.
Function
blackcat L2 Ehlers Filter is used to follow trend. The filters Dr. Ehlers have invented are nonlinear FIR filters. It turns out that they provide both extraordinary smoothing in sideways markets and aggressively follow major price movements with minimal lag. The development of Ehlers filters starts with a general
class of FIR filters called Order Statistic (OS) filters. These filters are well-known for speech and image processing, to sharpen edges, increase contrast, and for robust estimation. In contrast to linear filters, where temporal ordering of the samples is preserved, OS filters base their operation on the ranking of samples
within the filter window. The data are ranked by their summary statistics, such as their mean or variance, rather than by their temporal position.
Among OS filters, the Median filter is the best known. In a Median filter, the output is the median value of all the data values within the observation window. As opposed to an averaging filter, the Median filter simply discards all data except the median value. In this way, impulsive noise spikes and extreme price data are eliminated rather than included in the average. The median value can fall at the first sample in the data window, at the last sample, or anywhere in between. Thus, temporal characteristics are lost. The Median filter tends to smooth out short-term variations that lead to whipsaw trades with linear filters. However, the lag of a Median filter in response to a sharp and sustained price movement is substantial --- it necessarily is about half the filter window width.
Key Signal
Coef --> Ehlers filter coefficients array
Filt --> Ehlers filter output
Pros and Cons
100% John F. Ehlers definition translation of original work, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his book. If you had read his works, then you will be quite familiar with my code style.
Remarks
The 14th script for Blackcat1402 John F. Ehlers Week publication.
Readme
In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.
The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.
Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.
Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.
Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.
Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.
Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.
[Mad]Triple Bollinger Bands ForecastTriple Bollinger Bands Forecast (BBx3+F)
This open-source indicator is an advanced version of the classic Bollinger Bands, designed to provide a more comprehensive and forward-looking view of market volatility and potential price levels.
It plots three distinct sets of Bollinger Bands and projects them into the future based on statistical calculations.
How It Is Built and Key Features
Triple Bollinger Bands: Instead of a single set of bands, this indicator plots three. All three share the same central basis line (a Simple Moving Average), but each has a different standard deviation multiplier. This creates three distinct volatility zones for analyzing price deviation from its mean.
Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Capability: The indicator can calculate and display Bollinger Bands from a higher timeframe (e.g., showing daily bands on a 4-hour chart). This allows for contextualizing price action within the volatility structure of a more significant trend.
(Lower HTF selection will result in script-crash!)
Future Forecasting: This is the indicator's main feature. It projects the calculated Bollinger Bands up to 8 bars into the future. This forecast is a recalculation of the Simple Moving Average and Standard Deviation based on a projected future source price.
Selectable Forecast Methods: The mathematical model for estimating the future source price can be selected:
Flat: A model that uses the most recent closing price as the price for all future bars in the calculation window.
Linreg (Linear Regression): A model that calculates a linear regression trend on the last few bars and projects it forward to estimate the future source price.
Efficient Drawing with Polylines: The future projections are drawn on the chart using Pine Script's polyline object. This is an efficient method that draws the forecast data only on the last bar, which avoids repainting issues.
Differences from a Classical Bollinger Bands Indicator
Band Count: A classical indicator shows one set of bands. This indicator plots three sets for a multi-layered view of volatility.
Perspective: Classical Bollinger Bands are purely historical. This indicator is both historical and forward-looking .
Forecasting: The classic version has no forecasting capability. This indicator projects the bands into the future .
Timeframe: The classic version works only on the current timeframe. This indicator has full Multi-Timeframe (MTF) support .
The Mathematics Behind the Future Predictions
The core challenge in forecasting Bollinger Bands is that a future band value depends on future prices, which are unknown. This indicator solves this by simulating a future price series. Here is the step-by-step logic:
Forecast the Source Price for the Next Bar
First, the indicator estimates what the price will be on the next bar.
Flat Method: The forecasted price is the current bar's closing price.
Price_forecast = close
Linreg Method: A linear regression is calculated on the last few bars and extrapolated one step forward.
Price_forecast = ta.linreg(close, linreglen, 1)
Calculate the Future SMA (Basis)
To calculate the Simple Moving Average for the next bar, a new data window is simulated. This window includes the new forecasted price and drops the oldest historical price. For a 1-bar forecast, the calculation is:
SMA_future = (Price_forecast + close + close + ... + close ) / length
Calculate the Future Standard Deviation
Similarly, the standard deviation for the next bar is calculated over this same simulated window of prices, using the new SMA_future as its mean.
// 1. Calculate the sum of squared differences from the new mean
d_f = Price_forecast - SMA_future
d_0 = close - SMA_future
// ... and so on for the rest of the window's prices
SumOfSquares = (d_f)^2 + (d_0)^2 + ... + (d_length-2)^2
// 2. Calculate future variance and then the standard deviation
Var_future = SumOfSquares / length
StDev_future = sqrt(Var_future)
Extending the Forecast (2 to 8 Bars)
For forecasts further into the future (e.g., 2 bars), the script uses the same single Price_forecast for all future steps in the calculation. For a 2-bar forecast, the simulated window effectively contains the forecasted price twice, while dropping the two oldest historical prices. This provides a statistically-grounded projection of where the Bollinger Bands are likely to form.
Usage as a Forecast Extension
This indicator's functionality is designed to be modular. It can be used in conjunction with as example Mad Triple Bollinger Bands MTF script to separate the rendering of historical data from the forward-looking forecast.
Configuration for Combined Use:
Add both the Mad Triple Bollinger Bands MTF and this Triple Bollinger Bands Forecast indicator to your chart.
Open the Settings for this indicator (BBx3+F).
In the 'General Settings' tab, disable the Activate Plotting option.
To ensure data consistency, the Bollinger Length, Multipliers, and Higher Timeframe settings should be identical across both indicators.
This configuration prevents the rendering of duplicate historical bands. The Mad Triple Bollinger Bands MTF script will be responsible for visualizing the historical and current bands, while this script will overlay only the forward-projected polyline data.
Linear Regression ForecastDescription:
This indicator computes a series of simple linear regressions anchored at the current bar, using look-back windows from 2 bars up to the user-defined maximum. Each regression line is projected forward by the same number of bars as its look-back, producing a family of forecast endpoints. These endpoints are then connected into a continuous polyline: ascending segments are drawn in green, and descending segments in red.
Inputs:
maxLength – Maximum number of bars to include in the longest regression (minimum 2)
priceSource – Price series used for regression (for example, close, open, high, low)
lineWidth – Width of each line segment
Calculation:
For each window size N (from 2 to maxLength):
• Compute least-squares slope and intercept over the N most recent bars (with bar 0 = current bar, bar 1 = one bar ago, etc.).
• Project the regression line to bar_index + N to obtain the forecast price.
Collected forecast points are sorted by projection horizon and then joined:
• First segment: current bar’s price → first forecast point
• Subsequent segments: each forecast point → next forecast point
Segment colors reflect slope direction: green for non-negative, red for negative.
Usage:
Apply this overlay to any price chart. Adjust maxLength to control the depth and reach of the forecast fan. Observe how shorter windows produce nearer-term, more reactive projections, while longer windows yield smoother, more conservative forecasts. Use the colored segments to gauge the overall bias of the fan at each step.
Limitations:
This tool is for informational and educational purposes only. It relies on linear regression assumptions and past price behavior; it does not guarantee future performance. Users should combine it with other technical or fundamental analyses and risk management practices.
LGMM (flat buffers) — multivariate poly + latent statesLGMM POLYNOMIAL BANDS — DISCOVER THE MARKET’S HIDDEN STATES
Overview
Latent-Gaussian-Mixture-Models (LGMMs) view price action as a mix of several invisible regimes: trending up, drifting sideways, sudden volatility spikes, and so on.
A Gaussian Mixture learns these states directly from data and outputs, for every bar, the probability that the market is in each state.
This indicator feeds those probabilities into a rolling polynomial regression that draws a fair-value line, then builds adaptive upper and lower bands.
Band width expands when recent residuals are large *and* when the state mix is uncertain, and contracts when price is calm or one regime clearly dominates.
Crossing back into the band from below generates a buy flag; crossing back into the band from above generates a sell flag (or take-profit for longs).
Key Inputs
Price source – default is Close; you can choose HL2, OHLC4, etc.
Training window (bars) – look-back length for every retrain. 252 bars (one trading year) is a balanced default for US stocks on daily timeframe. Use fewer bars for intraday charts (say 7*24=168 for 1H bars on crypto), more for weekly periods.
Polynomial degree – 1 for a straight trend line, 2 for a curved fit. Curved fits are better when the symbol shows persistent drift.
Hidden states K – number of regimes the mixture tracks (1 to 3). Three states often map well to up-trend, chop, down-trend.
Band width ×σ – multiplier on the entropy-weighted standard deviation. Smaller values (1.5-2) give more trades; larger values (2.5-3) give fewer, higher-conviction trades.
Offline μ,σ pairs (optional) – paste component means and sigmas from an offline LGMM (format: mu1,sigma1;mu2,sigma2;…). Leave blank to let the script use its built-in approximation.
Quick Start
Add the indicator to a chart and wait until the initial Training window has filled.
Watch for green BUY triangles when price closes back above the lower band and red SELL triangles when price closes back below the upper band.
Fine-tune:
– Increase Training window to reduce noise.
– Decrease Band width ×σ for more frequent signals.
– Experiment with Hidden states K; more states capture richer behaviour but need longer windows to stay reliable.
Tips
Bands widen automatically in chaotic periods and tighten when one regime dominates.
Combine with a volume filter or a higher-time-frame trend to reduce whipsaws.
If you already run an LGMM in Python or Matlab, paste its component parameters for a perfect match between your back-test and the TradingView plot.
Works on all markets and time-frames, provided you have at least five times the Training window’s bars in history.
Happy trading!
