Alpha-Sutte ModelThe Alpha-Sutte model is an ongoing project run by Ansari Saleh Ahmar, a lecturer and researcher at Universitas Negeri Makassar in Indonesia, that attempts to make forecasts for time series like how Arima and Holt-Winters models do. Currently Ahmar and his team have conducted research and published papers comparing the efficacy of the Alpha-Sutte and other models, such as Arima and Holt-Winters, on topics ranging from forecasting Turkey's CPI data, Bitcoin prices, Apple's stock prices, primary energy supply of Indonesia, to infant mortality rates in China.
The Alpha-Sutte model in comparison to the other two models listed above shows promise in providing a more accurate forecast, and the project has been able to receive some of its funding from organizations such as the US Agency for International Development, which is a part of the US Federal Government, so maybe the project has some actual merit.
How it works:
In this model there are four values presented at the top of the window.
1) The first value in blue is the value of the Alpha-Sutte model whose purpose is to forecast the price of the current bar.
2) The second value in yellow is an adaptive version of the Alpha-Sutte model that I made. The purpose of the adaptive Alpha-Sutte model is to expand upon the Alpha-Sutte by allowing new information to be introduced, causing the value to change during the current period, hence the adaptiveness of it.
3) The third value in aqua is the moving average of the low% Sutte line which is a predictive line that is based off of the close and low of the current and previous periods.
4) The fourth value in red is the moving average of the high% Sutte line which is a predictive line that is based off of the close and high of the current and previous periods.
Trend signals:
If low% Sutte (aqua value/line) is greater than high% Sutte (red value/line) then this is a buy signal.
If high% Sutte (red value/line) is greater than low% Sutte (aqua value/line) then this is a sell signal.
Caveat:
Even though this model's purpose is to forecast the future, will it be able to predict periods of large movements? No, of course not, but it will adjust quickly to try to make more accurate forecasts for the next period. This was also a reason why I made an adaptive version of this model to try to reduce some of the discrepancies between the Alpha Sutte and price when there is a large unexpected move.
*WARNING before using this I would highly recommend that you look up "Sutte Indicator" online and read some of the papers about this model before you use this , even though this model has shown merit when compared to Arima and Holt-Winter models this is still an ongoing project.*
Hopefully this project will actually come to something in the near future as the calculation for this time series predictive model is much easier to calculate and program in pine editor than something like an Arima model.
*Also, if you know how to use R language there is a package for the "Alpha-Sutte model".*
Predictive
Awesome Oscillator and MACD HistogramThis is a quick script that combines two standard indicators, the Awesome Oscillator and MACD histogram, to highlight the beginnings of periods of fast price movement (divergence between the two). Since MACD's EMA responds more quickly than AO's SMA, look for periods of green over gold as a bullish signal, and red under blue as a bearish signal.
Of course both indicators are lagging in nature, but the presence of this divergence often leads larger, continued movement in the same direction.
Bullish Signals
Change from red to green below 0 with either blue or gold above 0 (strengthened on second green bar):
Rising green above 0 with gold below 0:
Bearish Signals
Change from green to red above 0 with either blue or gold below 0 (strengthened on second red bar):
Deepening red below 0 with blue above 0:
Godmode 3.1.4 - SNOW_CITY SCALPER EDITION - 7/2017 Updates to xSilas Godmode Oscillator published December 19th, 2014
Thanks to LEGION, LAZYBEAR, Ni6HTH4wK, xSilas
Updates:
Changed default sources to include BITSTAMP and REMOVED BTC-e
Changed default lengths for SCALPING SUPREMACY - See Instructions
Changed "Caution dots" to RED because YELLOW was hard to see.
I mostly Ignore the oscillators and only use the caution dots with this configuration:
MOST EFFECTIVE USE: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
- Use on 1m charts of your BITMEX swap, yes 1m. I know, but it works better this way. 5m and 15m work best when using on an exchange index.
- IF overall 2H trend is DOWN, the 1m godmode on swap CAUTION DOTS appear on the UPPER BOUNDS means good SHORT entry points, and the lower dots suggest a possible reversal and good exit opportunity (not always)
- If overall 2H trend is UP, the 1m godmode on swap CAUTION DOTS appear on the LOWER BOUNDS means good LONG entry points, and upper dots suggest possible oversold if they start to round over, again not always.
This is ultra simple, and very effective.
Default settings for VERY sensitive CAUTION DOT blop: 17,6,4
Use these settings for a slightly less sensitive CAUTION DOT blop: 14,12,9
[RS][ALPHA]Predictive Range Analysis V0this code is untested use at your own risk...
applying timed price change over the square to predict price expansion or contraction of the range, it is not predicting the future price only the range that is possible for the price to be in within a margin of error of possibility, with that said i think its very unlikely for price to fall outside the range, due to virtual constraint applied by the auto corrective/cyclical nature of price action.
