O'Neil Market TimingBill O'Neil Market Timing Indicator - User Guide
Overview
This Pine Script indicator implements William O'Neil's market timing methodology, which assigns one of four distinct states to a market index (such as SPY or QQQ) to help traders identify optimal market conditions for investing. The indicator is designed to work exclusively on Daily timeframe charts.
The Four Market States
The indicator tracks the market through four distinct states, with specific transition rules between them:
1. Confirmed Uptrend (Green)
- Meaning: The market is in a healthy uptrend with institutional support
- Action: Favorable conditions for building positions in leading stocks
- Can transition to: State 2 (Uptrend Under Pressure)
2. Uptrend Under Pressure (Yellow)
- Meaning: The uptrend is showing signs of weakness with increasing distribution
- Action: Be cautious, tighten stops, reduce position sizes
- Can transition to: State 1 (Confirmed Uptrend) or State 3 (Downtrend)
3. Downtrend (Red)
- Meaning: The market is in a confirmed downtrend
- Action: Stay mostly in cash, avoid new purchases
- Can transition to: State 4 (Rally Attempt)
4. Rally Attempt (Pink/Fuchsia)
- Meaning: The market is attempting to bottom and reverse
- Action: Watch for Follow-Through Day to confirm new uptrend
- Can transition to: State 1 (Confirmed Uptrend) or State 3 (Downtrend)
Key Concepts
Distribution Day
A distribution day occurs when:
1. The index closes down by more than the critical percentage (default 0.2%)
2. Volume is higher than the previous day's volume
Distribution days indicate institutional selling and are marked with red triangles on the indicator.
Follow-Through Day
A follow-through day occurs during a Rally Attempt when:
1. The index closes up by more than the critical percentage (default 1.6%)
2. Volume is higher than the previous day's volume
A Follow-Through Day confirms a new uptrend and triggers the transition from Rally Attempt to Confirmed Uptrend.
State Transition Logic
Valid Transitions
The system only allows specific transitions:
- 1 → 2: When distribution days reach the "pressure number" (default 5) within the lookback period (default 25 bars)
- 2 → 1: When distribution days drop below the pressure number
- 2 → 3: When distribution days reach "downtrend number" (default 7) AND price drops by "downtrend criterion" (default 6%) from the lookback high
- 3 → 4: When the market doesn't make a new low for 3 consecutive days
- 4 → 3: When a new low is made, undercutting the downtrend low
- 4 → 1: When a Follow-Through Day occurs during the Rally Attempt
Input Parameters
Distribution Day Parameters
- Distribution Day % Threshold (default 0.2%, range 0.1-2.0%)
- Minimum percentage decline required to qualify as a distribution day. While 0.2% seems to be the canonical number I see in literature about this, I use a much higher threshold (at least 0.5%)
Follow-Through Day Parameters
- Follow-Through Day % Threshold (default 1.6%, range 1.0-2.0%)
- Minimum percentage gain required to qualify as a follow-through day
### State Transition Parameters
- Pressure Number (default 5, range 3-6)
- Number of distribution days needed to transition from Confirmed Uptrend to Uptrend Under Pressure
- Lookback Period (default 25 bars, range 20-30)
- Number of days to count distribution days
- Downtrend Number (default 7, range 4-10)
- Number of distribution days needed (with price drop) to transition to Downtrend
- Downtrend % Drop from High (default 6%, range 5-10%)
- Percentage drop from lookback high required for downtrend confirmation
Visual Settings
- Color customization for each state
- Table position selection (Top Left, Top Right, Bottom Left, Bottom Right)
## How to Use This Indicator
### Installation
1. Open TradingView and navigate to SPY or QQQ (or another major index)
2. **Important**: Switch to the Daily (1D) timeframe
3. Click on "Indicators" at the top of the chart
4. Click "Pine Editor" at the bottom of the screen
5. Copy and paste the Pine Script code
6. Click "Add to Chart"
### Interpretation
**When the indicator shows:**
- **Green (State 1)**: Market is healthy - consider adding quality positions
- **Yellow (State 2)**: Exercise caution - tighten stops, be selective
- **Red (State 3)**: Defensive mode - preserve capital, avoid new buys
- **Pink (State 4)**: Watch closely - prepare for potential Follow-Through Day
### The Information Table
The table displays:
- **Current State**: The current market condition
- **Distribution Days**: Number of distribution days in the lookback period
- **Lookback Period**: Number of bars being analyzed
- **Rally Attempt Day**: (Only in State 4) Days into the current rally attempt
### Visual Elements
1. **State Line**: A stepped line showing the current state (1-4)
2. **Red Triangles**: Mark each distribution day
3. **Horizontal Reference Lines**: Dotted lines marking each state level
4. **Color-Coded Display**: The state line changes color based on the current market condition
## Trading Strategy Guidelines
### In Confirmed Uptrend (State 1)
- Build positions in stocks breaking out of proper bases
- Use normal position sizing
- Focus on stocks showing institutional accumulation
- Hold winners as long as they act properly
### In Uptrend Under Pressure (State 2)
- Take partial profits in extended positions
- Tighten stop losses
- Be more selective with new entries
- Reduce overall exposure
### In Downtrend (State 3)
- Move to cash or maintain very light exposure
- Avoid new purchases
- Focus on preservation of capital
- Use the time for research and watchlist building
### In Rally Attempt (State 4)
- Stay mostly in cash but prepare
- Build a watchlist of strong stocks
- On Day 4+ of the rally attempt, watch for Follow-Through Day
- If FTD occurs, begin cautiously adding positions
## Best Practices
1. **Use with Major Indices**: This indicator works best with SPY, QQQ, or other broad market indices
2. **Daily Timeframe Only**: The indicator is designed for daily bars - do not use on intraday timeframes
3. **Combine with Stock Analysis**: Use the market state as a filter for individual stock decisions
4. **Respect the Signals**: When the market enters Downtrend, reduce exposure regardless of individual stock setups
5. **Monitor Distribution Days**: Pay attention when distribution days accumulate - it's a warning sign
6. **Wait for Follow-Through**: Don't jump back in too early during Rally Attempt - wait for confirmation
## Alert Conditions
The indicator includes built-in alert conditions for:
- State changes (entering any of the four states)
- Distribution Day detection
- Follow-Through Day detection during Rally Attempt
To set up alerts:
1. Click the "Alert" button while the indicator is on your chart
2. Select "O'Neil Market Timing"
3. Choose your desired alert condition
4. Configure notification preferences
## Customization Tips
### For More Sensitive Detection
- Lower the "Pressure Number" to 3-4
- Lower the "Distribution Day % Threshold" to 0.15%
- Reduce the "Downtrend Number" to 5-6
### For More Conservative Detection
- Raise the "Pressure Number" to 6
- Raise the "Distribution Day % Threshold" to 0.3-0.5%
- Increase the "Downtrend Number" to 8-9
### For Different Market Conditions
- **Bull Market**: Consider slightly higher thresholds
- **Bear Market**: Consider slightly lower thresholds
- **Volatile Market**: May need to increase percentage thresholds
## Limitations and Considerations
1. **Not a Crystal Ball**: The indicator identifies conditions but doesn't predict the future
2. **False Signals**: Follow-Through Days can fail - use proper risk management
3. **Whipsaws Possible**: In choppy markets, the indicator may switch states frequently
4. **Confirmation Lag**: By design, there's a lag as the system waits for confirmation
5. **Works Best with Price Action**: Combine with your analysis of individual stocks
## Historical Context
This methodology is based on William J. O'Neil's decades of market research, documented in books like "How to Make Money in Stocks" and through Investor's Business Daily. O'Neil's research showed that:
- Most major market tops are preceded by accumulation of distribution days
- Most successful rallies begin with a Follow-Through Day on Day 4-7 of a rally attempt
- Identifying market state helps prevent buying during unfavorable conditions
## Troubleshooting
**Problem**: Indicator shows "Initializing"
- **Solution**: Let the chart load at least 5 bars to establish the initial state
**Problem**: No distribution day markers appear
- **Solution**: Verify you're on daily timeframe and check if volume data is available
**Problem**: Table not visible
- **Solution**: Check the table position setting and ensure it's not off-screen
**Problem**: State seems to change too frequently
- **Solution**: Increase the lookback period or adjust threshold parameters
## Support and Further Learning
For deeper understanding of this methodology:
- Read "How to Make Money in Stocks" by William J. O'Neil
- Study Investor's Business Daily's "Market Pulse"
- Review historical market tops and bottoms to see the pattern
- Practice identifying distribution days and follow-through days manually
## Version History
**Version 1.0** (November 2025)
- Initial implementation
- Four-state system with proper transitions
- Distribution day detection and marking
- Follow-through day detection
- Customizable parameters
- Information table display
- Alert conditions
---
## Quick Reference Card
| State | Number | Color | Action |
|-------|--------|-------|--------|
| Confirmed Uptrend | 1 | Green | Buy quality setups |
| Uptrend Under Pressure | 2 | Yellow | Tighten stops, be selective |
| Downtrend | 3 | Red | Cash position, no new buys |
| Rally Attempt | 4 | Pink | Watch for Follow-Through Day |
**Distribution Day**: Down > 0.2% on higher volume (red triangle)
**Follow-Through Day**: Up > 1.6% on higher volume during Rally Attempt (triggers State 4→1)
---
*Remember: This indicator is a tool to help identify market conditions. It should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy that includes proper risk management, position sizing, and individual stock analysis.*
Also, I created this with the help of an AI coding framework, and I didn't exhaustively test it. I don't actually use this for my own trading, so it's quite possible that it's materially wrong, and that following this will lead to poor investment decisions.. This is "copy left" software, so feel free to alter this to your own tastes, and claim authorship.
Marketstate
[GYTS-CE] Market Regime Detector🧊 Market Regime Detector (Community Edition)
🌸 Part of GoemonYae Trading System (GYTS) 🌸
🌸 --------- INTRODUCTION --------- 🌸
💮 What is the Market Regime Detector?
The Market Regime Detector is an advanced, consensus-based indicator that identifies the current market state to increase the probability of profitable trades. By distinguishing between trending (bullish or bearish) and cyclic (range-bound) market conditions, this detector helps you select appropriate tactics for different environments. Instead of forcing a single strategy across all market conditions, our detector allows you to adapt your approach based on real-time market behaviour.
💮 The Importance of Market Regimes
Markets constantly shift between different behavioural states or "regimes":
• Bullish trending markets - characterised by sustained upward price movement
• Bearish trending markets - characterised by sustained downward price movement
• Cyclic markets - characterised by range-bound, oscillating behaviour
Each regime requires fundamentally different trading approaches. Trend-following strategies excel in trending markets but fail in cyclic ones, while mean-reversion strategies shine in cyclic markets but underperform in trending conditions. Detecting these regimes is essential for successful trading, which is why we've developed the Market Regime Detector to accurately identify market states using complementary detection methods.
🌸 --------- KEY FEATURES --------- 🌸
💮 Consensus-Based Detection
Rather than relying on a single method, our detector employs two complementary detection methodologies that analyse different aspects of market behaviour:
• Dominant Cycle Average (DCA) - analyzes price movement relative to its lookback period, a proxy for the dominant cycle
• Volatility Channel - examines price behaviour within adaptive volatility bands
These diverse perspectives are synthesised into a robust consensus that minimises false signals while maintaining responsiveness to genuine regime changes.
💮 Dominant Cycle Framework
The Market Regime Detector uses the concept of dominant cycles to establish a reference framework. You can input the dominant cycle period that best represents the natural rhythm of your market, providing a stable foundation for regime detection across different timeframes.
💮 Intuitive Parameter System
We've distilled complex technical parameters into intuitive controls that traders can easily understand:
• Adaptability - how quickly the detector responds to changing market conditions
• Sensitivity - how readily the detector identifies transitions between regimes
• Consensus requirement - how much agreement is needed among detection methods
This approach makes the detector accessible to traders of all experience levels while preserving the power of the underlying algorithms.
💮 Visual Market Feedback
The detector provides clear visual feedback about the current market regime through:
• Colour-coded chart backgrounds (purple shades for bullish, pink for bearish, yellow for cyclic)
• Colour-coded price bars
• Strength indicators showing the degree of consensus
• Customizable colour schemes to match your preferences or trading system
💮 Integration in the GYTS suite
The Market Regime Detector is compatible with the GYTS Suite , i.e. it passes the regime into the 🎼 Order Orchestrator where you can set how to trade the trending and cyclic regime.
🌸 --------- CONFIGURATION SETTINGS --------- 🌸
💮 Adaptability
Controls how quickly the Market Regime detector adapts to changing market conditions. You can see it as a low-frequency, long-term change parameter:
Very Low: Very slow adaptation, most stable but may miss regime changes
Low: Slower adaptation, more stability but less responsiveness
Normal: Balanced between stability and responsiveness
High: Faster adaptation, more responsive but less stable
Very High: Very fast adaptation, highly responsive but may generate false signals
This setting affects lookback periods and filter parameters across all detection methods.
💮 Sensitivity
Controls how sensitive the detector is to market regime transitions. This acts as a high-frequency, short-term change parameter:
Very Low: Requires substantial evidence to identify a regime change
Low: Less sensitive, reduces false signals but may miss some transitions
Normal: Balanced sensitivity suitable for most markets
High: More sensitive, detects subtle regime changes but may have more noise
Very High: Very sensitive, detects minor fluctuations but may produce frequent changes
This setting affects thresholds for regime detection across all methods.
💮 Dominant Cycle Period
This parameter allows you to specify the market's natural rhythm in bars. This represents a complete market cycle (up and down movement). Finding the right value for your specific market and timeframe might require some experimentation, but it's a crucial parameter that helps the detector accurately identify regime changes. Most of the times the cycle is between 20 and 40 bars.
💮 Consensus Mode
Determines how the signals from both detection methods are combined to produce the final market regime:
• Any Method (OR) : Signals bullish/bearish if either method detects that regime. If methods conflict (one bullish, one bearish), the stronger signal wins. More sensitive, catches more regime changes but may produce more false signals.
• All Methods (AND) : Signals only when both methods agree on the regime. More conservative, reduces false signals but might miss some legitimate regime changes.
• Weighted Decision : Balances both methods with equal weighting. Provides a middle ground between sensitivity and stability.
Each mode also calculates a continuous regime strength value that's used for colour intensity in the 'unconstrained' display mode.
💮 Display Mode
Choose how to display the market regime colours:
• Unconstrained regime: Shows the regime strength as a continuous gradient. This provides more nuanced visualisation where the intensity of the colour indicates the strength of the trend.
• Consensus only: Shows only the final consensus regime with fixed colours based on the detected regime type.
The background and bar colours will change to indicate the current market regime:
• Purple shades: Bullish trending market (darker purple indicates stronger bullish trend)
• Pink shades: Bearish trending market (darker pink indicates stronger bearish trend)
• Yellow: Cyclic (range-bound) market
💮 Custom Colour Options
The Market Regime Detector allows you to customize the colour scheme to match your personal preferences or to coordinate with other indicators:
• Use custom colours: Toggle to enable your own colour choices instead of the default scheme
• Transparency: Adjust the transparency level of all regime colours
• Bullish colours: Define custom colours for strong, medium, weak, and very weak bullish trends
• Bearish colours: Define custom colours for strong, medium, weak, and very weak bearish trends
• Cyclic colour: Define a custom colour for cyclic (range-bound) market conditions
🌸 --------- DETECTION METHODS --------- 🌸
💮 Dominant Cycle Average (DCA)
The Dominant Cycle Average method forms a key part of our detection system:
1. Theoretical Foundation :
The DCA method builds on cycle analysis and the observation that in trending markets, price consistently remains on one side of a moving average calculated using the dominant cycle period. In contrast, during cyclic markets, price oscillates around this average.
2. Calculation Process :
• We calculate a Simple Moving Average (SMA) using the specified lookback period - a proxy for the dominant cycle period
• We then analyse the proportion of time that price spends above or below this SMA over a lookback window. The theory is that the price should cross the SMA each half cycle, assuming that the dominant cycle period is correct and price follows a sinusoid.
• This lookback window is adaptive, scaling with the dominant cycle period (controlled by the Adaptability setting)
• The different values are standardised and normalised to possess more resolving power and to be more robust to noise.
3. Regime Classification :
• When the normalised proportion exceeds a positive threshold (determined by Sensitivity setting), the market is classified as bullish trending
• When it falls below a negative threshold, the market is classified as bearish trending
• When the proportion remains between these thresholds, the market is classified as cyclic
💮 Volatility Channel
The Volatility Channel method complements the DCA method by focusing on price movement relative to adaptive volatility bands:
1. Theoretical Foundation :
This method is based on the observation that trending markets tend to sustain movement outside of normal volatility ranges, while cyclic markets tend to remain contained within these ranges. By creating adaptive bands that adjust to current market volatility, we can detect when price behaviour indicates a trending or cyclic regime.
2. Calculation Process :
• We first calculate a smooth base channel center using a low pass filter, creating a noise-reduced centreline for price
• True Range (TR) is used to measure market volatility, which is then smoothed and scaled by the deviation factor (controlled by Sensitivity)
• Upper and lower bands are created by adding and subtracting this scaled volatility from the centreline
• Price is smoothed using an adaptive A2RMA filter, which has a very flat and stable behaviour, to reduce noise while preserving trend characteristics
• The position of this smoothed price relative to the bands is continuously monitored
3. Regime Classification :
• When smoothed price moves above the upper band, the market is classified as bullish trending
• When smoothed price moves below the lower band, the market is classified as bearish trending
• When price remains between the bands, the market is classified as cyclic
• The magnitude of price's excursion beyond the bands is used to determine trend strength
4. Adaptive Behaviour :
• The smoothing periods and deviation calculations automatically adjust based on the Adaptability setting
• The measured volatility is calculated over a period proportional to the dominant cycle, ensuring the detector works across different timeframes
• Both the center line and the bands adapt dynamically to changing market conditions, making the detector responsive yet stable
This method provides a unique perspective that complements the DCA approach, with the consensus mechanism synthesising insights from both methods.
🌸 --------- USAGE GUIDE --------- 🌸
💮 Starting with Default Settings
The default settings (Normal for Adaptability and Sensitivity, Weighted Decision for Consensus Mode) provide a balanced starting point suitable for most markets and timeframes. Begin by observing how these settings identify regimes in your preferred instruments.
💮 Finding the Optimal Dominant Cycle
The dominant cycle period is a critical parameter. Here are some approaches to finding an appropriate value:
• Start with typical values, usually something around 25 works well
• Visually identify the average distance between significant peaks and troughs
• Experiment with different values and observe which provides the most stable regime identification
• Consider using cycle-finding indicators to help identify the natural rhythm of your market
💮 Adjusting Parameters
• If you notice too many regime changes → Decrease Sensitivity or increase Consensus requirement
• If regime changes seem delayed → Increase Adaptability
• If a trending regime is not detected, the market is automatically assigned to be in a cyclic state
• If you want to see more nuanced regime transitions → Try the "unconstrained" display mode (note that this will not affect the output to other indicators)
💮 Trading Applications
Regime-Specific Strategies:
• Bullish Trending Regime - Use trend-following strategies, trail stops wider, focus on breakouts, consider holding positions longer, and emphasize buying dips
• Bearish Trending Regime - Consider shorts, tighter stops, focus on breakdown points, sell rallies, implement downside protection, and reduce position sizes
• Cyclic Regime - Apply mean-reversion strategies, trade range boundaries, apply oscillators, target definable support/resistance levels, and use profit-taking at extremes
Strategy Switching:
Create a set of rules for each market regime and switch between them based on the detector's signal. This approach can significantly improve performance compared to applying a single strategy across all market conditions.
GYTS Suite Integration:
• In the GYTS 🎼 Order Orchestrator, select the '🔗 STREAM-int 🧊 Market Regime' as the market regime source
• Note that the consensus output (i.e. not the "unconstrained" display) will be used in this stream
• Create different strategies for trending (bullish/bearish) and cyclic regimes. The GYTS 🎼 Order Orchestrator is specifically made for this.
• The output stream is actually very simple, and can possibly be used in indicators and strategies as well. It outputs 1 for bullish, -1 for bearish and 0 for cyclic regime.
🌸 --------- FINAL NOTES --------- 🌸
💮 Development Philosophy
The Market Regime Detector has been developed with several key principles in mind:
1. Robustness - The detection methods have been rigorously tested across diverse markets and timeframes to ensure reliable performance.
2. Adaptability - The detector automatically adjusts to changing market conditions, requiring minimal manual intervention.
3. Complementarity - Each detection method provides a unique perspective, with the collective consensus being more reliable than any individual method.
4. Intuitiveness - Complex technical parameters have been abstracted into easily understood controls.
💮 Ongoing Refinement
The Market Regime Detector is under continuous development. We regularly:
• Fine-tune parameters based on expanded market data
• Research and integrate new detection methodologies
• Optimise computational efficiency for real-time analysis
Your feedback and suggestions are very important in this ongoing refinement process!
