Interest Rate Trading (Manually Added Rate Decisions) [TANHEF]Interest Rate Trading: How Interest Rates Can Guide Your Next Move.
How were interest rate decisions added?
All interest rate decision dates were manually retrieved from the 'Record of Policy Actions' and 'Minutes of Actions' on the Federal Reserve's website due to inconsistent dates from other sources. These were manually added as Pine Script currently only identifies rate changes, not pauses.
█ Simple Explanation:
This script is designed for analyzing and backtesting trading strategies based on U.S. interest rate decisions which occur during Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, to make trading decisions. No trading strategy is perfect, and it's important to understand that expectations won't always play out. The script leverages historical interest rate changes, including increases, decreases, and pauses, across multiple economic time periods from 1971 to the present. The tool integrates two key data sources for interest rates—USINTR and FEDFUNDS—to support decision-making around rate-based trades. The focus is on identifying opportunities and tracking trades driven by interest rate movements.
█ Interest Rate Decision Sources:
As noted above, each decision date has been manually added from the 'Record of Policy Actions' and 'Minutes of Actions' documents on the Federal Reserve's website. This includes +50 years of more than 600 rate decisions.
█ Interest Rate Data Sources:
USINTR: Reflects broader U.S. interest rate trends, including Treasury yields and various benchmarks. This is the preferred option as it corresponds well to the rate decision dates.
FEDFUNDS: Tracks the Federal Funds Rate, which is a more specific rate targeted by the Federal Reserve. This does not change on the exact same days as the rate decisions that occur at FOMC meetings.
█ Trade Criteria:
A variety of trading conditions are predefined to suit different trading strategies. These conditions include:
Increase/Decrease: Standard rate increases or decreases.
Double/Triple Increase/Decrease: A series of consecutive changes.
Aggressive Increase/Decrease: Rate changes that exceed recent movements.
Pause: Identification of no changes (pauses) between rate decisions, including double or triple pauses.
Complex Patterns: Combinations of pauses, increases, or decreases, such as "Pause after Increase" or "Pause or Increase."
█ Trade Execution and Exit:
The script allows automated trade execution based on selected criteria:
Auto-Entry: Option to enter trades automatically at the first valid period.
Max Trade Duration: Optional exit of trades after a specified number of bars (candles).
Pause Days: Minimum duration (in days) to validate rate pauses as entry conditions. This is especially useful for earlier periods (prior to the 2000s), where rate decisions often seemed random compared to the consistency we see today.
█ Visualization:
Several visual elements enhance the backtesting experience:
Time Period Highlighting: Economic time periods are visually segmented on the chart, each with a unique color. These periods include historical phases such as "Stagflation (1971-1982)" and "Post-Pandemic Recovery (2021-Present)".
Trade and Holding Results: Displays the profit and loss of trades and holding results directly on the chart.
Interest Rate Plot: Plots the interest rate movements on the chart, allowing for real-time tracking of rate changes.
Trade Status: Highlights active long or short positions on the chart.
█ Statistics and Criteria Display:
Stats Table: Summarizes trade results, including wins, losses, and draw percentages for both long and short trades.
Criteria Table: Lists the selected entry and exit criteria for both long and short positions.
█ Economic Time Periods:
The script organizes interest rate decisions into well-defined economic periods, allowing traders to backtest strategies specific to historical contexts like:
(1971-1982) Stagflation
(1983-1990) Reaganomics and Deregulation
(1991-1994) Early 1990s (Recession and Recovery)
(1995-2001) Dot-Com Bubble
(2001-2006) Housing Boom
(2007-2009) Global Financial Crisis
(2009-2015) Great Recession Recovery
(2015-2019) Normalization Period
(2019-2021) COVID-19 Pandemic
(2021-Present) Post-Pandemic Recovery
█ User-Configurable Inputs:
Rate Source Selection: Choose between USINTR or FEDFUNDS as the primary interest rate source.
Trade Criteria Customization: Users can select the criteria for long and short trades, specifying when to enter or exit based on changes in the interest rate.
Time Period: Select the time period that you want to isolate testing a strategy with.
Auto-Entry and Pause Settings: Options to automatically enter trades and specify the number of days to confirm a rate pause.
Max Trade Duration: Limits how long trades can remain open, defined by the number of bars.
█ Trade Logic:
The script manages entries and exits for both long and short trades. It calculates the profit or loss percentage based on the entry and exit prices. The script tracks ongoing trades, dynamically updating the profit or loss as price changes.
█ Examples:
One of the most popular opinions is that when rate starts begin you should sell, then buy back in when rate cuts stop dropping. However, this can be easily proven to be a difficult task. Predicting the end of a rate cut is very difficult to do with the the exception that assumes rates will not fall below 0.25%.
2001-2009
Trade Result: +29.85%
Holding Result: -27.74%
1971-2024
Trade Result: +533%
Holding Result: +5901%
█ Backtest and Real-Time Use:
This backtester is useful for historical analysis and real-time trading. By setting up various entry and exit rules tied to interest rate movements, traders can test and refine strategies based on real historical data and rate decision trends.
This powerful tool allows traders to customize strategies, backtest them through different economic periods, and get visual feedback on their trading performance, helping to make more informed decisions based on interest rate dynamics. The main goal of this indicator is to challenge the belief that future events must mirror the 2001 and 2007 rate cuts. If everyone expects something to happen, it usually doesn’t.
FOMC
Odd_mod Econ CalendarA modification of Economic Calendar Events: FOMC, CPI, and more written by jdehorty . Please send all tips his way as he is maintaining the underlying data for the Calendar and the original concept.
List of changes:
Optimized code, will only run once on initialization now(No random line in middle of screen on bar change)
Legend - Added short names
Legend - Removed header
Legend - Made repositionable with selectable top margins
Legend - Removed data name from legend when it is disabled
Legend - Removed border
Original Description by jdehorty :
This script plots major events from the Economic Calendar that often correspond to major pivot points in various markets. It also includes built-in logic to retroactively adjust larger time intervals (i.e. greater than 1 hour) to be correctly aligned with the interval during which the event occurred.
Events are taken from the Economic Calendar and will be updated periodically at the following library:
EconomicCalendar
The above library can be used to conveniently access date-related data for major Meetings, Releases, and Announcements as integer arrays, which can be used in other indicators. Currently, it has support for the following events:
FOMC Meetings
The FOMC meets eight times a year to determine the course of monetary policy . The FOMC's decisions are based on a review of economic and financial developments and its assessment of the likely effects of these developments on the economic outlook.
FOMC Minutes
The FOMC minutes are released three weeks after each FOMC meeting. The minutes provide a detailed account of the FOMC's discussion of economic and financial developments and its assessment of the likely effects of these developments on the economic outlook.
Producer Price Index (PPI) Releases
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures changes in the price level of goods and services sold by domestic producers. The PPI is a weighted average of prices of a basket of goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. PPI is a leading indicator of CPI .
Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) Releases
The Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) measures changes in the price level of goods and services purchased by households. The CPI is a weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. CPI is one of the most widely used measures of inflation .
Consumer Sentiment Index ( CSI ) Releases
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index ( CSI ) is a measure of consumer attitudes about the economy. The CSI is based on a monthly survey of U.S. households and reflects the consumers' assessment of present and future economic conditions. The CSI is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Consumer Confidence Index ( CCI ) Releases
The Consumer Confidence Index is a survey that measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation.
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Releases
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) is a measure of the change in the number of employed persons, excluding farm workers and government employees. The NFP is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Economic Calendar (Import from Spreadsheet)This script draws vertical lines to mark Economic Calendar Events.
Datetime of events is defined by user in Settings via a standardized line of text.
Motivation for coding this script:
All traders should be aware of economic calendar events. At times, when you really need to pay attention to an upcoming major event, you might even decide to use the vertical-line drawing tool to mark it. However, this takes manual effort.
This script provides a solution to performing mundane tasks such as drawing vertical lines and dragging them ever so slightly, just to have them approximately aligned with exact time.
Parameters:
(1) Source data - String representation of collection of datetime referencing to Economic Calendar Events
(2) Line color, & (3) Width of line - For displaying vertical lines drawn by script.
Standardized format for Source Data :
Example:
If 'GMT;2022,6,1,14,0,0;2022,6,2,12,15,0;' is provided to PineScript, then two vertical lines will be drawn on June 6, 2022 according to the exact time in 'YYYY,MM,DD,hh,mm,ss' format at the specified timezone (GMT in this case).
Template for Source Data :
Included here, link below, is a shared Google Sheet that systematically processes Economic Calendar data provided in the 'Raw Data' tab.
drive.google.com
Users are advised to use their preferred methods* to format the string (for source data param.), and apply their own criteria to sort down the Events. (ie. only include Events of High Impact, etc.)
* Preferred methods (as mentioned above) does not mean being limited to using the template as provided in this post.
Economic Calendar Events: FOMC, CPI, and moreThis script plots major events from the Economic Calendar that often correspond to major pivot points in various markets. It also includes built-in logic to retroactively adjust larger time intervals (i.e. greater than 1 hour) to be correctly aligned with the interval during which the event occurred.
Events are taken from the Economic Calendar and will be updated periodically at the following library:
The above library can be used to conveniently access date-related data for major Meetings, Releases, and Announcements as integer arrays, which can be used in other indicators. Currently, it has support for the following events:
FOMC Meetings
The FOMC meets eight times a year to determine the course of monetary policy. The FOMC's decisions are based on a review of economic and financial developments and its assessment of the likely effects of these developments on the economic outlook.
FOMC Minutes
The FOMC minutes are released three weeks after each FOMC meeting. The minutes provide a detailed account of the FOMC's discussion of economic and financial developments and its assessment of the likely effects of these developments on the economic outlook.
Producer Price Index (PPI) Releases
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures changes in the price level of goods and services sold by domestic producers. The PPI is a weighted average of prices of a basket of goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. PPI is a leading indicator of CPI.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Releases
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the price level of goods and services purchased by households. The CPI is a weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. CPI is one of the most widely used measures of inflation.
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) Releases
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) is a measure of consumer attitudes about the economy. The CSI is based on a monthly survey of U.S. households and reflects the consumers' assessment of present and future economic conditions. The CSI is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Releases
The Consumer Confidence Index is a survey that measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation.
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Releases
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) is a measure of the change in the number of employed persons, excluding farm workers and government employees. The NFP is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
EconomicCalendarLibrary "EconomicCalendar"
This library is a data provider for important dates and times from the Economic Calendar.
events()
Returns the list of dates supported by this library as a string array.
Returns: array : Names of events supported by this library
fomcMeetings()
Gets the FOMC Meeting Dates. The FOMC meets eight times a year to determine the course of monetary policy. The FOMC announces its decision on the federal funds rate at the conclusion of each meeting and also issues a statement that provides information on the economic outlook and the Committee's assessment of the risks to the outlook.
Returns: array : FOMC Meeting Dates as timestamps
fomcMinutes()
Gets the FOMC Meeting Minutes Dates. The FOMC Minutes are released three weeks after each FOMC meeting. The Minutes provide information on the Committee's deliberations and decisions at the meeting.
Returns: array : FOMC Meeting Minutes Dates as timestamps
ppiReleases()
Gets the Producer Price Index (PPI) Dates. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The PPI is a leading indicator of CPI, and CPI is a leading indicator of inflation.
Returns: array : PPI Dates as timestamps
cpiReleases()
Gets the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Rekease Dates. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the price level of a market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. The CPI is a leading indicator of inflation.
Returns: array : CPI Dates as timestamps
csiReleases()
Gets the CSI release dates. The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) is a survey of consumer attitudes about the economy and their personal finances. The CSI is a leading indicator of consumer spending.
Returns: array : CSI Dates as timestamps
cciReleases()
Gets the CCI release dates. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a survey of consumer attitudes about the economy and their personal finances. The CCI is a leading indicator of consumer spending.
Returns: array : CCI Dates as timestamps
nfpReleases()
Gets the NFP release dates. Nonfarm payrolls is an employment report released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that measures the change in the number of employed people in the United States.
Returns: array : NFP Dates as timestamps
FOMC AnnouncementsThis indicator plots vertical lines at the scheduled times of US Federal Reserve's FOMC Meeting Announcements. Usually, that time or the 24 hours before and after could see big moves in markets. You can change those dates and times in the settings, and could use the indicator option "Add this indicator to entire layout" if you want to easily reflect that across all panes of a layout. Those lines will show on any symbol you switch to, saving you time and effort of drawing them manually.
