MVRV Z-Score for BTCThe MVRV Z-Score for Bitcoin is a fundamental valuation tool used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its market cycle. The Z-Score is based on the Market Value (MCAP) of Bitcoin, comparing its current price to the historical average, adjusted for volatility. This metric helps investors identify extreme market conditions, suggesting potential buy or sell opportunities based on historical trends.
Key Features:
Z-Score Calculation: The Z-Score compares Bitcoin's current market cap to its historical mean and standard deviation over a selected period. This standardizes the data, making it easier to compare different timeframes and market conditions.
Data Sources:
Bitcoin Market Capitalization (BTC_MCAP): This is retrieved from Glassnode.
Realized Market Capitalization (BTC_MCAPREAL): This provides an adjusted market cap figure, also sourced from CoinMetrics.
Input Parameters:
Z-Score Length: Users can input the number of days (default is 365) over which the Z-Score is calculated.
Lowest/Highest Length: This is the number of years (default is 4 years) used to define the highest and lowest Z-Score for rescaling purposes.
Rescaling:
The Z-Score is rescaled to fit within a range of -3 to +3. This helps visualize market extremes and gives a more standardized perspective of Bitcoin’s market state.
Usage:
Positive Z-score: Indicates an oversold market, where Bitcoin could be undervalued compared to historical averages.
Negative Z-score: Indicates an overbought market, suggesting that Bitcoin may be trading above its intrinsic value.
Red Zone (-3 to -2): Strong overbought conditions.
Green Zone (2 to 3): Strong oversold conditions.
Important Considerations:
This indicator should not be used in isolation. While the MVRV Z-Score provides valuable insights into Bitcoin's market valuation relative to historical trends, it is essential to complement it with other technical and fundamental analysis tools for a more comprehensive market evaluation. Relying solely on the Z-Score could lead to inaccurate conclusions, particularly in volatile or uncertain market conditions.
By incorporating the MVRV Z-Score into a broader strategy, traders and investors can enhance their understanding of market cycles and more accurately identify periods when Bitcoin may be overbought or oversold. This holistic approach increases the likelihood of making well-informed, data-driven decisions.
Chain
Bitcoin Halving CountdownJust a simple Bitcoin halving countdown
Set up for the 2028 halving with the block height set at 1050000
Block height can be setup in the script settings for future halving
We don't have real time on-chain data on TradingView, so the script will update only once a day with a lag of one day (GLASSNODE data) until we get live data.
If you have any suggestions/questions leave a comment :)
Mescu
Supply Weighted Moving Average: OnchinUse this Onchain Channel in Weekly Timeframe - on BTCUSD BUTSTAMP Chart:
This Moving average channel is weighted based on BTC's new Supply:
I believe the slope of the Bitcoin trend line is correlated to the new supply and the issue of Halving.
The chart below shows this:
In fact, after each Halving, the supply is halved. Halving the supply increases the demand-for-supply ratio and increases the price. But the uptrend slope also halves after each halving.
Therefore, the slope of the bitcoin trend is correlated with the new supply rate. This is the logic of this new metric.
Accordingly, the moving average is weighted based on the new supply. This new channel can identify where bitcoin is too cheap or too expensive in the historical chart. It has also marked support/resistance Supply Weighted Moving Average.
BTC New Supply: OnchainThis Onchain Metric shows the sum of newly issued coins.
This metric is very useful for finding new bull run cycles in the market. The new bull run is accompanied by a significant drop in the new supply.
BTC Supply weighted channel: OnchainUse this oscillator in the weekly time frame and then draw the above linear channel
The premise of this idea is that the trend slope of the bitcoin price correlates with the bitcoin supply chart, which shows the total amount of bitcoin ever created/issued.
Therefore, Bitcoin price is weighted based on Bitcoin supply.
As a result, the above channel has been created, which is a linear channel, and it seems that it can be an oscillator to determine the bitcoin trend, as well as the tops and bottoms of the market.
Bitcoin seems to respect the bottom and top lines of this channel as well as its midline
Glassnode BTC SOPR ToolkitSOPR stand for Spent Output Profit Ratio. It’s a Bitcoin on-chain metric that shows whether Bitcoin spent outputs (UTXO’s) are being realized in profit or loss. It’s calculated by dividing realized value by the value at creation (price sold / price paid).
The SOPR metric traditionally uses a baseline of 1 instead of 0. For the purposes of the script, I've changed the baseline to 0.
SOPR signals > 0 show the overall market is transaction at a profit.
SOPR signals < 0 show the overall market is transacting at a loss.
SOPR servers as a great short/mid-term indicator.
SOPR Toolkit Features
- Smoothed SOPR
- SOPR Spikes
Smoothed SOPR
By default, ‘Smoothed SOPR’ is shown which applies a smoothing function to SOPR. This helps to visualize the broader SOPR trend.
Smoothed SOPR is calculated by taking the difference between positive and negative SOPR values.
SOPR is split into separate arrays based on if it's above or below the baseline A moving average is then applied to each array, then subtracted to get the difference.
You can also change whether or not a SMA, EMA, or Volume Weighted Simple/Exponential moving average is used. The VWMA is calculated using Glassnode’s BTC Total Transfer Volume metric.
SOPR Spikes
Shows relevant SOPR spikes.
SOPR spikes is calculated by applying a Bollinger Band to SOPR. Only values spike outside the bands are shown.
Adjust the StdDev to show more/less relevant spikes.
Enjoy :)
Test: Chain casting multiple functions performanceExperimental:
A simple test to check performance impact of chaining functions in pinescript.
Test calling frequency impact.
Test: Chain casting functions performanceExperimental:
A simple test to check performance impact of chaining functions in pinescript.
BTC exchange trade vol / on-chain transaction volThis Bitcoin indicator shows the percentage that the exchange traded volume is from the sum of the exchange traded volume + on-chain transaction volume.
The thin red line is the non-smoothed value calculated from daily volumes.
The thick black line is the 7-day EMA-smoothed value.
The exchange traded volume and the on-chain transaction volume are reported by Quandl and have a 1D resolution - so it is best to use this indicator on the daily time frame.
When the value is high, it shows the the interest of traders is high and they are intensely trading BTC. When the indicator is low, it means that BTC is "dormant": it is used for transfers, but not so much for trading - traders forgot about it for a while - which may be a good time to accumulate if the economy is in a general bull market.
