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BTC-D

[DS]Bitcoin BTC ETH and others cryptos==DESCRIPTION - English version The purpose of this script is to show information on graph that can help your decision to buy and sell cryptos. The script is indicated for Position Trade (Long Term - Holder) and Swing Trade (Medium term). Position Trade it is recommended to use the Weekly (W) and Daily (D) charts, Swing trade to use the 4H and 2H charts. It is not advisable to use this indicator with graphic time frame less than 2 hours because the noise levels of information are very high. An alert function has been inserted in the indicator and to activate this function you will need configure it in the Tradingview. This alert will indicate the likely points of entry and exit of the asset. **DESCRIÇÃO - Versão em Português A proposta deste script é mostrar no gráfico informações que possam auxiliar a sua decisão de compra e venda de cryptos. Este script é indicado para negociação Position Trade (Longo Prazo - Holders) e Swing Trade (Médio prazo). Para Position Trade (Holders) é indicado utilizar os gráficos Semanal (W) e Diário (D), para Swing trade utilizar os gráficos 4H e 2H. Não é aconselhável utilizar este indicador com tempos gráficos menores que 2hs pois os níveis de ruídos nas informação são muito altos. Foi inserido no indicador uma função de alerta e para ativar esta função, você precisará configurá-la no seu Tradingview. Este alerta irá indicar os provaveis pontos de entrada e saída do ativo. ==================================================================================================== ** English Version ==================================================================================================== █ SETUP applied to Indicator The setup is based on the average 8, 21 and 56 of the weekly chart (taught on youtube channel: Augusto Backes) Price above the average 8 on the weekly, indicates that the market is UP trend, below the average 8 on the weekly that the market is DOWN trend RSI greater than 60% the market is UP trend RSI greater than 40% and lower 60% the market is in ACCUMULATION RSI less than 40% the market DOWN trend The weekly average 8 is represented in GREEN (Upward Trend) and RED (Downward Trend). The weekly average 21 is represented in LIGHT ORANGE The weekly average 56 is represented in LIGHT PURPLE The crossing of weekly averages 8 and 21 is represented with a GREEN (HIGH trend) and RED (LOW trend) cross - this signal is disabled on the graph but you can enable it by clicking on the graph setup █ FUNCTION USE (1) Average 8, 21 and 56 on Weekly - show the average 8, 21, 56 weekly on graphic (Average 8 in color red and green, 21 - light orange, 56 light purple) (2) Crossing of averages 8 and 21 Weekly - is not active but you can activate (3) Calculation of RSI (4) barcolor() - mark the candles with the green color (High market) and red color (Dow market) (5) alertcondition() - you can active this alert on Tadingview █ BUY AND SELL POINTS - likely points The indication of the BUY position is shown by a green arrow pointing upwards and the sell position by a red arrow pointing downwards. Buy and sell indications are obtained from the divergence in the market trend. █ THANK TO PineCoders for everything they do, all the tools and help they provide, and their involvement in making a better community. All PineCoders, Pine Pros and Pine Wizards, people who share their work and knowledge because of it and helping others, I am so happy and so grateful. █ NOTE This indicator is not a buy and sell recommendation, it indicates the most likely buy and sell points. Every purchase and sale decision is your responsibility ***************************************************************************************************** ** Versão em Português ***************************************************************************************************** █ SETUP aplicado no Indicador O setup está baseado na média 8, 21, e 56 do gráfico semanal Preço acima da média 8 no semanal indica que o mercado esta em tendência de ALTA, abaixo da média 8 no semanal que o mercado está em tendência de BAIXA RSI maior que 60% o mercado está em ALTA RSI maior que 40% e menor 60% o mercado está em ACUMULAÇÃO RSI menor que 40% o mercado está em BAIXA A média 8 semanal está representadas nas cores VERDE (Tendência de Alta) e VERMELHA (Tendência de Baixa). A média 21 semanal está representada na cor laranja claro A média 56 semanal está representada na cor roxa claro O cruzamento das médias 8 e 21 semanal esta representado com uma cruz VERDE (Tendência de ALTA) e VERMELHA (Tendência de BAIXA) - este sinal esta desativado no gráfico mas você pode ativá-lo clicando no setup do gráfico █ FUNÇÕES UTILIZADAS (1) Média 8, 21 e 56 no Semanal - mostra a média 8, 21, e 56 no gráfico (2) Cruzamento das médias 8 e 21 Semanal - não está ativo mas você pode ativá-lo (3) Cálculo do RSI (4) barcolor() - marca a vela (Candle) com a cor verde (Mercado em Alta) e a cor vermelha (Mercado em Baixa) (5) alertcondition () - você pode ativar o alerta no Tradingview █ PONTOS DE COMPRA E VENDA - prováveis pontos A indicação da posição de COMPRA é apresentada por uma seta na cor verde apontada para cima e a posição de VENDA por uma seta na cor vermelha apontada para baixo. As indicações de compra e venda são obtidas a partir da divergência na tendência do mercado. █ OBRIGADO PARA PineCoders por tudo o que fazem, todas as ferramentas e ajuda que fornecem, e seu envolvimento em fazer uma comunidade melhor. Todos os PineCoders, Pine Pros e Pine Wizards, pessoas que compartilham seu trabalho e conhecimento por causa dele e ajudando os outros, estou muito feliz e muito grato. █ NOTA Este indicador não é uma recomendação de compra e venda ele indica os pontos mais prováveis de compra e venda. Toda decisão de compra e venda é de sua responsabilidade
Pine Script™ indikatörü
DalmarSantos tarafından
18
Complete MA DivisionThis indicator simply divides two moving averages and calculates the slope of the resulting curve to show when an asset's momentum is slowing down. The original idea was in a recent youtube video by Ben Cowen . His indicator didn't show the complete history of the moving average, so I wanted to try a little trick to get the moving averages at the beginning of time even when using a large moving average period. I accomplished this by counting the number off current bars using the cum() function. After the count is hit, the period will be constant. Changing the curve smoothing will smooth the actual curve. Both moving average periods should be divisible by the curve smoothing. Changing the slope smoothness will dictate when the slope is starting to slow down. Keep this high to break through the noise. Start of Red = Good time to sell Start of Green = Good time to buy There is a weird issue with the smoothness of the line so just keep your moving averages divisible by the curve smoothing. I couldn't figure that issue out yet.
Pine Script™ indikatörü
OrionAlgo tarafından
2
Multiple Anchored VWAP [Morty]The Anchored VWAP (aVWAP) indicator ties VWAP calculations to a specific price bar chosen by the trader. Anchored VWAP allows you to specify the price bar where calculations begin, making it easy to see whether the bulls or bears have been in charge since a very specific point in time. The starting price bar that is chosen generally marks a shift in market psychology, such as a significant high or low, earnings, news, or other announcements. The Anchored VWAP line is charted using price and volume data from that significant event onward. This indicator plots up to 4 aVWAP lines in the chart. Features: - plot up to 4 aVWAP lines - custom start date of aVWAP - custom line color - optional label of starting price bar - optional custom resolution ---------------------------------------------------- 锚定VWAP（aVWAP）指标将VWAP的计算与交易者选择的特定价格柱联系起来。锚定VWAP允许你指定计算开始的价格柱，使你很容易看到自一个非常具体的时间点以来，是牛市还是熊市在起作用。所选择的起始价格条通常标志着市场心理的转变，如一个重要的高点或低点、收益、新闻或其他公告。锚定VWAP线是使用从该重大事件开始的价格和成交量数据绘制的。 该指标在图表中最多绘制了4条aVWAP线。 特色: - 绘制多达4条aVWAP线 - 自定义aVWAP的开始日期 - 自定义线的颜色 - 可选的起始价格条的标签 - 可选的自定义分辨率
Pine Script™ indikatörü
M0rty tarafından
14
RSI Rising Crypto Trending StrategyThis is crypto and stock market trending strategy designed for long timeframes such as 4h+ From my tests it looks like it works better to trade crypto against crypto than trading against fiat. Indicators used: RSI for rising/falling of the trend BB sidemarket ROC sidemarket Rules for entry For long: RSI values are rising, and bb and roc tells us we are not in a sidemarket For long: RSI values are falling, and bb and roc tells us we are not in a sidemarket Rules for exit We exit when we receive an opposite direction. Cuation: Because this strategy uses no risk management, I recommend you takje care with it. If you have any questions, let me know !
Pine Script™ stratejisi
exlux tarafından
6
WEEKLY BTC TRADING SCRYPTWeekly BTC Trading Scrypt(WBTS) This script is only suggested for cryptocurrencies and weekly buying strategy which is long term.Using it in another markets(e.g forex,stock,e.t.c) is not suggested. The thing makes it different than other strategies we try to understand bull and bear seasons and buying selected crypto currency as using formula if weekly closing value crossover eight weeks simple moving avarage buy,else if selected crypto currency's weekly closing value crossunder eight weeks simple avarage sell. Eight week moving avarage is also uses weekly closing prices but for being able to use this strategy ,trading pair must have more than eight candles in weekly chart otherwise the 8 weeks simple moving avarage value cannot be calculated and script does not work. This script has a chart called WBTS and it has following features: Strategy group consist of 3 inputs: 1)Source: Close by default. Our whole strategy uses close values. You can change it but not suggested. 2)Loss Ratio: Because of the cases like the circumstances that manipulates market or high volatility , sometimes graphic show wrong buying signals and this ratio saves user from big money looses(Note : This ratio will always work when selling condition occurs to make user take his profit or prevent him to loss more money because of a wrong positive comes from the indicator.) 3)Reward Ratio : When selling condition happens it will exit user with more profit(if price is already higher than buying point) otherwise it will dimunish loss a bit(if user is below of buying point) or prevents looses(if user is in buying point when selling condition happened. MA group consist of 2 inputs: COLOR:Specifies color of the moving avarage.It is equal to #FF3232by hex color code by default. LINE WIDTH: Specifies linewidth of the moving avarage. It is 2 by default. GRAPHIC group consist of 2 inputs: COLOR: It specifies the color of the line which consist of weekly closing prices. It is equal to #6666FF hex color code by default. LINE WIDTH: Specifies linewidth of the line which consist of weekly closing prices. It is 2 by default. STRATEGY EXECUTION YEAR: It will show the orders,profits and looses done by script after the input year giving in it.It is 2020 by default. The last feature is strategy equity,it is not in one of these groups. User should click on settings button on the WBTS indicator than chose Style section and there is a deactivated check box near in the plot section if user activate it, the equity line will show in indicator's graph. Logic of This Strategy:The story of this strategy began when I studied BTC's price movement from 2020 to today with 8 weeks simple moving avarage (it takes weekly closes as source) and weekly clossing values. I understood that there was a perfect interest between bull and bear market and following conditions: buy_condition=crossover(weekly_closing_values,8_week_simple_moving_avarage) sell_condition=crossover(weekly_closing_values,8_week_simple_moving_avarage) and I tried same thing on the same and bigger time frames("for example i studied how the strategy works from the beginning to today with bitcoin and what is our final equity") with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and this made me saw better the relation between giving conditions and general market psychology, however I also witnessed some wrong positives coming by script and used a risk reward ratio to save user and set risk reward ratio 1/3 after a research. For both conditions(buy_condition and sell_condition),when they are realised,script will alert users and an order will be triggered. Before finishing the description,from settings/properties/ user can set initial capital,base currency,order size and type,but it is 100000 for initial_amount and 1 contract for order size by default. In backtesting I used the options like the following example : Initial capital=1000 Base_curreny=USD Order size=40 USD Properties place must set different by every single user according to his or her capital and order size must not be higher than his total money because this script is not the best or a good script for derivatives. It is only written for long term-crypto spot trading and I strongly recommend to users that margin may cause bad results and please do not use it with any margin or any market different than crypto market. Thank you very much for reading)
Pine Script™ stratejisi
taberandwords tarafından
Optimized Keltner Channels SL/TP Strategy for BTCThis strategy is optimized for Bitcoin with the Keltner Channel Strategy, which is TradingView's built-in strategy. In the original Keltner Channel Strategy, it was difficult to predict the timing of entry because the Buy and Sell signals floated in the middle of the candle in real time. This strategy is convenient because if the bitcoin price hits the top or bottom of the Keltner Channel and closes the closing price, you can enter Buy or Sell at the next candle start price. In addition, this strategy provides Stop Loss and Take Profit functions to maximize profit. _________________________________ Recommended settings are below. - length: 9 - multiplier: 1 - source: close - (v) Use EMA - Bands Style: Average True Range - ATR Length: 19 - Stop Loss (%): 20 - Take Profit (%) : 20 _________________________________ - length: 9 - multiplier: 1 - source: close - (v) Use EMA - Bands Style: Average True Range - ATR Length: 18 - Stop Loss (%): 20 - Take Profit (%) : 5 _________________________________ ▶ Usefulness and Originality - Stop Loss and Take Profit functions are available - Convenient Buy and Sell entry compared to the original Keltner Channel Strategy - Optimized for BTCUSD market (maximizing profits) ___________________________________________ 이 전략은 TradingView의 Built-in 전략인 Keltner Channel Strategy를 비트코인에 맞게 최적화되었습니다. 기존의 Keltner Channel Strategy는 Buy, Sell 신호가 캔들 중간에 실시간으로 떠서 진입 시점을 예측하기 어려운 불편함이 있었지만 이 전략은 비트코인 가격이 Keltner Channel 상단 혹은 하단을 찍고 종가를 마감하면 그 다음 캔들 시작가에서 Buy 혹은 Sell 진입이 가능하여 편리합니다. 또한, 이 전략은 Keltner Channel을 만나서 캔들을 마감한 가격 (bprice, sprice)을 시각적으로 plot을 제공하여 타점 및 차트를 보기에 편리하며 손절가 및 목표가를 지정한 백테스팅이 가능합니다.
Pine Script™ stratejisi
chanu_lev10k tarafından
9
{Gunzo} Stock to Flow (Gold, Silver, Dollar, Bitcoin)This indicator displays the Stock to Flow (S2F) ratio for popular commodities (Gold, Silver, Dollar, Euro, Bitcoin, Ethereum) in order to compare them and determine which ones could be a good Store of Value (SoV). OVERVIEW : Stock to Flow is a popular indicator used to predict commodities scarcity. It evaluates the total stock of a commodity against the total amount that can be produced during a year. This model supposes that if scarcity is increasing, the price is going to increase. This model has been used over the last years on Bitcoin to determine if the asset was undervalued or overvalued, and even make prediction models on the future price. This script is going to focus on the Stock to Flow ratio (total stock/amount produced) to compare the following assets over time : Mining resources (mined) for Gold and Silver Cryptos assets (mined) for Bitcoin and Ethereum FIAT currencies (banknotes printed) for Dollar and Euro CALCULATION : The calculation of the Stock to Flow ratio evaluates the total stock of a commodity produced against the production made for a specific year. The data is calculated on a yearly basis, then interpolated to get monthly or daily values. DATA ORIGIN : The main information needed to calculate the Stock to Flow ratio is the "yearly production" of a commodity. I tried to retrieve that information from the most reliable sources : for Gold from research on www.gold.org for Silver from research on www.silverinstitute.org for Ethereum from research on etherscan.io for Bitcoin from data source "QUANDL:BCHAIN/TOTBC" from www.quandl.com for Dollar from research on www.federalreserve.gov for Euro from research on www.ecb.europa.eu SETTINGS : Smoothing for interpolated data : Smoothing factor for assets that are calculated yearly and then interpolated (Gold, Silver, Dollar, Euro, and Ethereum) Smoothing for non interpolated data : Smoothing factor for assets that are calculated daily and not interpolated (Bitcoin) Display asset names : Display assets names in a colored rectangle on the right side of the chart Display asset values : Display assets Stock to Flow ratio in a colored rectangle on the right side of the chart Display key events for assets : Display important events for the assets at the bottom of the chart using the same color as the assets lines (for example Orange diamond is a Bitcoin halving). Please refer to the script code for the details of all events. USAGE : This script can be used on any asset available on TradingView as the data used is either static or external. However I recommend using it the Gold asset from currency.com as the depth of the chart will be bigger (since 1980s). It is recommended to used this script on the monthly timeframe as the chart data is calculated yearly and then interpolated.
Pine Script™ indikatörü
Gunzo_TV tarafından
Crypto swing correlation RSI and SMAThis is a crypto swing strategy, designed for long term periods and correlated pairs with crypto market total(or other coins used as correlation, however I recommend total of crypto or btc) Its components are: RSI with a very length Correlation candles SMA 9 Rules for entry: For long : RSI is above 51 level and going higher and close of the candle is above the SMA For short :RSI is below 49 and going lower and close of the candle is below the SMA Rules for exit: We exit when we encountered an opposite condition than the entry one, or based on take profit/stop loss levels. If you have any questions let me know !
Pine Script™ stratejisi
exlux tarafından
4
Full Crypto Swing Strategy ALMA Cross with MACDThis is a full crypto swing strategy designed. From my testing it looks like it perform the best on timeframes 4h +. The below example has been adapted to BNB/USDT, using the entire period since 2017 until present day, with a comission of 0.03% ( which is the comission for the futures on binance). Its components are : ALMA Fast ALMA Slow MACD Histogram Rules for entry For long, we have a crossover of the fast alma with the slow one and the histogram is ascending. For short, we have a crossunder of the fast alma with the slow one and the histogram is descending. Rules for exit We exit based on a risk management system for TP and SL, or when we receive an opposite condition than the initial one. Regarding risk management 0.05 = 5% movement 2 = 200% movement 0.001 = 0.1% movement If you have any questions, let me know !
Pine Script™ stratejisi
exlux tarafından
10
Aggresive Scalper/Swing Crypto StrategyThis is a simple yet very efficient scalper long strategy adapted for low timeframes for crypto. Can also be used with bigger timeframes as a swinger. Its main components are: Price oscillator swing Vortex Risk management for TP/SL Rules for entry We calculate the difference between the oscillator from the lowest low and the highest high. If the difference is positive, its a long potential. If its negative we exit from the long trade. At the same time we check that the we have a crossover between the VIP vortex with the VIM vortex part. Lastly we check that the current candle is bigger the second previous high. Rules for exit If we reach the take profit or the stop loss. If we have a negative difference betwee LL and HH and VIP vortex crossunder with VIM vortex . In this example I aimed for a 1:10 risk reward ratio, meaing that for every dollar lost, we will gain 10 when we win. Thus having a 10% minimum win rate will give us a profit over many trades. If you have any questions, let me know !
Pine Script™ stratejisi
exlux tarafından
3
3x EMA fast, 3 x MA slow + BB + PsarThis is a trend system which combines multiple fast EMA + mulitple slower SMA together with bollinger band channel and PSAR. For entry rules the ones that I use are: Long We are inside BB channel, psar is ascending, and our close is above all moving averages or below all EMA'S + 1 SMA WE can exit either when our close is below all EMA's or when PSAR is descending or when we hit upper/lower BB levels Short We are inside BB channel, psar is descnending, and our close is below all moving averages or below all EMA's + 1 SMA WE can exit either when our close is above all EMA's or when PSAR is ascending or when we hit upper/lower BB levels If you have any questions, let me know
Pine Script™ indikatörü
exlux tarafından
1
Crypto RSI with RVI StrategyThis is a long only strategy adapted for crypto market. Its idea is to take the most juice out of a long trend and cut the losses as soon as possible. For this , its components are RSI with a very big length - 100 or 200 preferably and RVI. Rules for entry If RVI is in the buy zone and we have a crossover from RSI with the overbought level. Rules for exit With change condition : If RVI is in the sell zone and we have a cross under from RSI with the oversold level. With stop loss : we have a SL based on movement in % of the price, recommendable between 5-10%. If you have any questions let me know !
Pine Script™ stratejisi
exlux tarafından
2
BTC Sentiment analysis RSI 2xEMAThis is a CRYPTO correlation strategy, which is using BTC sentiment with BITFINEX long and short ratios. WIth them we are making from one side 2 RSI, one for long and another for short. And from another side, we are going to make multiple EMA's, using the ratios for long and short. Rules for entry For this scenario I created a long only strategy. The long entry condition is : we have a crossover of the rsi long ratio with rsi short ratio and long ratio from BITFINEX is above the long EMA and short ratio from BITFINEX is below short EMA. We exit when we get the opposite condition, in this case we have a crossunder of the rsi long ratio with rsi short ratio and long ratio from BITFINEX is below the long EMA and short ratio from BITFINEX is above short EMA. If you have any questions, let me know !
Pine Script™ stratejisi
exlux tarafından
BTC Candle Correlation Strategy This is a special strategy adapted for crypto market, which instead of using the current chart candles, we use inside calculation a candle from different charts. For best usage I recommend a big timeframe like 1-4h+. In this case we take the high, low, open and close candles from different brokers for BTC, and with it we form up the candle that we are going to use for the logic of entry. At the same time we are going to create an upper and lower bands using a moving average and the difference between high and low. So in a way to put it, if BTC triggers a sell or buy order, we input instead these orders on the current chart, like in this example with ETH. Rules for entry For long : if we have a crossover of the btc source value with the upper band . For short: if we have a crossunder of the btc source vale with the lower band. For exit, we do it when we receive a different signal than the initial one. This strategy does not have any other risk management inside, so use it with caution. If you have any other questions, let me know !
Pine Script™ stratejisi
exlux tarafından
7
Aggregated Volume Colored (Bitcoin, ETH, Altcoins, everything)BITSTAMP:BTCUSD This indicator aggregates trading volume data of up to 10 symbols and can display the individual data by color. It is useful for assets which are traded on multiple exchanges, like cryptocurrencies, commodities, forex and derivatives showing you what is happening across the market and on the individual exchanges to give you beter insights. You can change the symbols from which the indicator gathers data in the settings under inputs, just like the colors, and you can add a moving average. By default trading volume is aggregated from the following symbols: Binance, BTC /USDT Binance, BTC /BUSD Bingbon, BTC /USD Huobi, BTC /USDT OkeX, BTC /USDT Coinbase, BTC /USD Bitfinex, BTC /USD Gemini, BTC /USD Kraken, XBT/USD Bitstamp, BTC /USD
Pine Script™ indikatörü
CantThinkofOne tarafından
5
Multi-X by HamidBoxHello to All, introducing Multi Types Crossover strategy, simply the best way of trading with Crossover and Crossunder Strategy, How it Works??? I added 5 types of Moving Averages, 1: Simple Moving Average ( SMA ) 2: Exponential Moving Average ( EMA ) 3: Weighted Moving Average ( WMA ) 4: Volume Weighted Moving Average ( VWMA ) 5: Relative Moving Average (RMA) With this indicator, you can do scalping, You can trade not only with similar types of Moving Average indicators but also with different types of Moving Average indicators. what is mean? like: Normal Condition is: ( Simple Moving Average ) Crossover to ( Simple Moving Average ), SMA x SMA ( Exponential Moving Average ) Crossover to ( Exponential Moving Average ), EMA x EMA But we can Crossover with: ( Exponential Moving Average ) Crossover to ( Simple Moving Average ), EMA x SMA ( Simple Moving Average ) Crossover to ( Weighted Moving Average ), SMA x WMA ( Weighted Moving Average ) Crossover to ( Weighted Moving Average ), WMA x WMA ( Simple Moving Average ) Crossover to (Relative Moving Average), WMA x RMA and also I added Moving Average ZONE in this tool, What does it work??? The zone will tell us what type of direction the market has, if the market is above the zone, it's mean we have a Bullish Trend, and if the market is below the zone, it means the market has a Bearish Trend, so if you want to play on the safe side, never trade when the market is in Bearish Trend, and if you want to play on aggressive mood, you can skip Moving Average Zone section.
Pine Script™ stratejisi
HamidBox tarafından
43
[BCT] Can BTC be predicted or is it purely random?Variance Ratio**This indicator can be applied to the ticker of your choice (not just BTC)** Markets are said to be "efficient". An efficient market is by definition unpredictable - no matter the amount of ML, computation, or indicators thrown at it. In particular, in an efficient market, TA will not be of help. An illustration of efficient markets is the WSJ's longstanding monkey vs. human contest:Blindfolded Monkey Beats Humans With Stock Picks, granted there are several flaws to it. BTC is a relatively new market. New markets are typically highly inefficient (easier to make money) and become more and more efficient over time (harder to make money). How much more efficient is BTC becoming? We apply the Variance Ratio method and apply it to BTC. BACKGROUND ON THE VARIANCE RATIO METHOD Based on 1988 MacKinlay's seminal paper "Stock Market Prices do not Follow a Random Walk", the idea is to exploit a phenomenon called "variance scaling". For those keen on looking into the math, the short version of it is under the assumption of iid (random walk) we have the following: H0: Var(Sum(returns over K bars))=Sum(Var(returns over 1 bar))=k*Var(return over 1 bar) We look to reject or not H0 depending on the observations. In this script, we compare the variance of the (log) returns for the chart selected between: (1) The (average) variance over k bars (call this Vk) (2) The (average) variance over 1 bar (call this V1) H0 simply says that Vk=k*V1 if the stock follows a random walk. We compute the Variance Ratio VR(k)=Variance(returns over k bar)/(Sum(Var(returns over 1 bar)))-1 We then compute the associated Z-score which we chart out for a configurable k number of bars. HOW TO INTERPRET THE CHART The line drawn is the Z-Score for VR(k). It represents the number of standard deviations of VR(k) from 0 - the further out, the less random. - If the line is close / hovers around 0, the ticker appears to follow a random walk (i.e. may not be predictable) - If the line is consistently > 2 or <-2, the ticker likely does not follow a random walk (i.e. may have predictable features) - If the line is positive, it means that the Variance on the k bars is larger than the variance on 1 bar (more variance on longer timeframes) - If the line is negative, it means that the Variance on the k bars is smaller than the variance on 1 bar (more variance on smaller timeframes) USE CASES - Identify timeframes where you won't be able to make money - Identify whether a stock cannot be predicted (forget about TA, indicators etc. -- a random walk is not predictable) - Identify whether a stock is becoming less and less predictable (Z-score amplitude will decrease over time) FEATURES - select the number of K bar to compare vs. 1 bar (default = 16) - ideally a power of 2 but any other number will work. The chart is based off this selection - select the lookback period for the analysis (500 bars by default) - select the source to analyze (default = close, but you may select other inputs to calculate the returns from) - results form the statistical tests on different K's in the table on the right/bottom side of the chart (H0 rejected = not random walk; H0 not rejected = it essentially looks rather random and we can't conclude that it's not a random walk) COMMENTARY ON BTC - It appears BTC's absolute value of the ZScore on the Variance Ratio is declining year after year - corroborating an increasingly efficient market as new participants join. - However, we can still detect a fair amount of potential inefficiency using this simple test. As usual, this is not investment advice. DYOR. With love, 🐵BCT🐵
Pine Script™ indikatörü
THE_REAL_BCT tarafından
2