Rolling Skewness & Kurtosis (Quant Lab)

🔹 Skewness (Asymmetric Risk)
• Skew > 0 (green) → Right tail heavier:
• More frequent positive extreme movements
• Higher probability of pump/sharp rally
• Skew < 0 (red) → Left tail heavier:
• Higher risk of crash, dump, liquidation
• Skew ≈ 0 → Distribution is symmetrical, neither right nor left side is dominant

🔹 Excess Kurtosis (Intensity of Extreme Movements)
• Kurt > 0 → Fat tails:
• More extreme movements compared to a normal distribution
• Increased risk of unexpected large spikes, flash moves
• Kurt < 0 → Thin tail:
• More “calm” distribution, fewer extreme movements

This pair tells you:

“Which direction could this instrument explode in right now?
and has the intensity of extreme movements increased?”