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Naive Bayes Candlestick Pattern Classifier v1.1 BETA

An intermezzo on why i made this script publication..

A : Candlestick Pattern took hours to backtest, why not using Machine Learning techniques?
B : Machine Learning, no that's gonna be really heavy bro!

A : Not really, because we use Naive Bayes.
B : The simplest, yet powerful machine learning algorithm to separate (a.k.a classify) multivariate data.

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Hello, everyone!

After deep research in extracting meaningful information from the market, I ended up building this powerful machine learning indicator based on the evolution of Bayesian Statistics. This indicator not only leverages the simplicity of Naive Bayes but also extends its application to candlestick pattern analysis, making it an invaluable tool for traders who are looking to enhance their technical analysis without spending countless hours manually backtesting each pattern on each market!.

What most interesting part is actually after learning all of likely useless methods like fibonacci, supply and demand, volume profile, etc. We always ended up back to basic like support and resistance and candlestick patterns, but with a slight twist on strategy algorithm design and statistical approach. Thus, the only reason why i made this, because i exactly know that you guys will ended up in this position as time goes by.

The essence of this indicator lies in its ability to automate the recognition and statistical evaluation of various candlestick patterns. Traditionally, traders have relied on visual inspection and manual backtesting to determine the effectiveness of patterns like Bullish Engulfing, Bearish Engulfing, Harami variations, Hammer formations, and even more complex multi-candle patterns such as Three White Soldiers, Three Black Crows, Dark Cloud Cover, and Piercing Pattern. However, these conventional methods are both time-consuming and prone to subjective bias.

To address these challenges, I employed Naive Bayes—a probabilistic classifier that, despite its simplicity, offers robust performance in various domains. Naive Bayes assumes that each feature is independent of the others given the class label, which, although a strong assumption, works remarkably well in practice, especially when the dataset is large like market data and the feature space is high-dimensional. In our case, each candlestick pattern acts as a feature that can be statistically evaluated based on its historical performance. The indicator calculates a probability that a given pattern will lead to a price reversal, by comparing the pattern’s close price to the highest or lowest price achieved in a lookahead window.

One of the standout features of this script is its flexibility. Each candlestick pattern is not only coded into the system but also comes with individual toggles to enable or disable them based on your trading strategy. This means you can choose to focus on single-candle patterns like Bullish Engulfing or more complex multi-candle formations such as Three White Soldiers, without modifying the core code. The built-in customization options allow you to adjust colors and labels for each pattern, giving you the freedom to tailor the visual output to your preference. This level of customization ensures that the indicator integrates seamlessly into your existing TradingView setup.

Moreover, the indicator isn’t just about pattern recognition—it also incorporates outcome-based learning. Every time a pattern is detected, it looks ahead a predefined number of bars to evaluate if the expected reversal actually materialized. This outcome is then stored in arrays, and over time, the script dynamically calculates the probability of success for each pattern. These probabilities are presented in a real-time updating table on your chart, which shows not only the percentage probability but also the count of historical occurrences. With this information at your fingertips, you can quickly gauge the reliability of each pattern in your chosen market and timeframe.

Another significant advantage of this approach is its speed and efficiency. While more complex machine learning models like neural networks might require heavy computational resources and longer training times, the Naive Bayes classifier in this script is lightweight, instantaneous and can be updated on the fly with each new bar. This real-time capability is essential for modern traders who need to make quick decisions in fast-paced markets.

Furthermore, by automating the process of backtesting, the indicator frees up your time to focus on other aspects of trading strategy development. Instead of manually analyzing hundreds or even thousands of candles, you can rely on the statistical power of Naive Bayes to provide you with insights on which patterns are most likely to result in profitable moves. This not only enhances your efficiency but also helps to eliminate the cognitive biases that often plague manual analysis.

In summary, this indicator represents a fusion of traditional candlestick analysis with modern machine learning techniques. It harnesses the simplicity and effectiveness of Naive Bayes to deliver a dynamic, real-time evaluation of various candlestick patterns. Whether you are a seasoned trader looking to refine your technical analysis or a beginner eager to understand market dynamics, this tool offers a powerful, customizable, and efficient solution. Welcome to a new era where advanced statistical methods meet practical trading insights—happy trading and may your patterns always be in your favor!

Note : On this current released beta version, you must manually adjust reversal percentage move based on each market. Further updates may include automated best range detection and probability.
Sürüm Notları
An Updated & Final Version Script of previously uploaded Naive Bayes Candlestick Pattern Classifier v1.1 BETA

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Hellow Smart People, Finance Bro, or whatever you guys..

Well, after a lot of bug checking and system audit, I have fixed several issues, improved the user experience, and added a missing candlestick pattern. This overlay will help you a lot, either in real-time trading, forward testing or back testing multiple markets.

The main idea behind this indicator was rely on my problem, that back testing each pattern one by one (even worse if you doing it manually) is really time consuming, why not all at once? In this updated version, the indicator now evaluates multiple candlestick patterns simultaneously on your chart, allowing you to gain comprehensive insights into market behavior in real time.

This advanced tool employs a Naive Bayes approach to classify candlestick patterns based on historical price action data. Naive Bayes is a statistical classification technique (technically, you can call it with term "Machine Learning") that uses Bayes’ Theorem with a “naive” assumption of independence between features. You can click this link, to explore more about Naive Bayes Classifier.

In our context, each candlestick pattern is treated as an independent piece of evidence regarding the market’s future movement. By calculating the probability of a reversal or continuation for each pattern individually and then combining these probabilities, the indicator provides a statistical edge in understanding market sentiment. This method makes it possible to assess the overall strength of a candlestick formation based on historical outcomes, even though real market variables might be interdependent.

The indicator automatically scans for a wide range of patterns including classic single-candle formations like Bullish Engulfing, Bearish Engulfing, Bullish Harami, and Bearish Harami, as well as more specialized patterns such as Hammer, Inverted Hammer, Tweezer Bottom, Tweezer Top, and Doji. One of the newly added patterns is the Shooting Star—a bearish reversal formation characterized by a small body with a long upper shadow and minimal lower shadow, indicating potential market weakness at the top of an uptrend.

Moreover, this indicator is not limited to single-candle analysis. It also supports multi-candle patterns such as Three White Soldiers, Three Black Crows, Dark Cloud Cover, and Piercing Pattern. Additional patterns, including Dragonfly Doji, Bullish and Bearish Spinning Tops, Gravestone Doji, Bullish and Bearish Kickers, Morning Star, Evening Star, Bullish and Bearish Abandoned Babies, Morning Doji Star, Evening Doji Star, and various inside and outside patterns, are integrated to offer a holistic view of market sentiment.

The script operates by scanning historical bars, collecting statistical outcomes from each detected pattern, and then computing the probability of reversal or continuation. It provides a dynamic probability table on the chart that displays the count and percentage probability of each pattern, along with the direction of the signal (Up or Down). This parallel backtesting methodology saves time and enables traders to compare the strength of different candlestick formations at a glance.

Designed with a user-friendly interface, the indicator offers customizable inputs for colors, labels, and key parameters such as the number of lookahead bars and the reversal threshold percentage. This flexibility allows traders to tailor the tool to their specific strategies and market conditions. Overall, this updated script is a robust and versatile tool for technical analysis, giving you a powerful way to visualize and validate candlestick patterns, and ultimately, make more informed trading decisions.

Hope this helps you a lot, Happy Trading folks!,
sigmaCEO.

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