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Kaufman Trend Strength Signal

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█ Overview

Kaufman Trend Strength Signal is an advanced trend detection tool that decomposes price action into its underlying directional trend and localized oscillation using a vector-based Kalman Filter.
By integrating adaptive smoothing and dynamic weighting via a weighted moving average (WMA), this indicator provides real-time insight into both trend direction and trend strength — something standard moving averages often fail to capture.

The core model assumes that observed price consists of two components:
(1) a directional trend, and
(2) localized noise or oscillation.
Using a two-step Predict & Update cycle, the filter continuously refines its trend estimate as new market data becomes available.



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█ How It Works

This indicator employs a Kalman Filter model that separates the trend from short-term fluctuations in a price series.

  • [] Predict & Update Cycle: With each new bar, the filter predicts the price state and updates that prediction using the latest observed price, producing a smooth but adaptive trend line.
    [] Trend Strength Normalization: Internally, the oscillator component is normalized against recent values (N periods) to calculate a trend strength score between -100 and +100.
    (Note: The oscillator is not plotted on the chart but is used for signal generation.)
    [] Filtered MA Line: The trend component is plotted as a smooth Kalman Filter-based moving average (MA) line on the main chart.
    [] Threshold Cross Signals: When the internal trend strength crosses a user-defined threshold (default: ±60), visual entry arrows are displayed to signal momentum shifts.


█ Key Features

  • [] Adaptive Trend Estimation: Real-time filtering that adjusts dynamically to market changes.
    [] Visual Buy/Sell Signals: Entry arrows appear when the trend strength crosses above or below the configured threshold.
  • Built-in Range Filter: The MA line turns blue when trend strength is weak (|value| < 10), helping you filter out choppy, sideways conditions.


█ How to Use

  • [] Trend Detection:
     • Green MA = bullish trend
     • Red MA = bearish trend
     • Blue MA = no trend / ranging market
    [] Entry Signals:
     • Green triangle = trend strength crossed above +Threshold → potential bullish entry
     • Red triangle = trend strength crossed below -Threshold → potential bearish entry



█ Settings

  • [] Entry Threshold: Level at which the trend strength triggers entry signals (default: 60)
    [] Process Noise 1 & 2: Control the filter’s responsiveness to recent price action. Higher = more reactive; lower = smoother.
    [] Measurement Noise: Sets how much the filter "trusts" price data. High = smoother MA, low = faster response but more noise.
    [] Trend Lookback (N2): Number of bars used to normalize trend strength. Lower = more sensitive; higher = more stable.
  • Trend Smoothness (R2): WMA smoothing applied to the trend strength calculation.




█ Visual Guide

  • [] Green MA Line → Bullish trend
    [] Red MA Line → Bearish trend
    [] Blue MA Line → Sideways/range
    [] Green Triangle → Entry signal (trend strengthening)
  • Red Triangle → Entry signal (trend weakening)


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█ Best Practices

  • [] In high-volatility conditions, increase Measurement Noise to reduce false signals.
    [] Combine with other indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD, EMA) for confirmation and filtering.
  • Adjust "Entry Threshold" and noise settings depending on your timeframe and trading style.


❗ Disclaimer

This script is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any asset.
Trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Always perform your own analysis and use proper risk management when trading.

Feragatname

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