Nq/ES daily CME risk interval

Reverse engineering the risk interval for CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) products based on margin requirements involves understanding the relationship between margin requirements, volatility, and the risk interval (price movement assumed for margin calculation)

The CME uses a methodology called SPAN (Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk) to calculate margins. At a high level, the initial margin is derived from:

Initial Margin = Risk Interval × Contract Size × Volatility Adjustment Factor

Where:

Risk Interval: The price movement range used in the margin calculation.
Contract Size: The unit size of the futures contract.
Volatility Adjustment Factor: A measure of how much price fluctuation is expected, often tied to historical volatility.

To calculate an approximate of the daily CME risk interval, we need:

Initial Margin Requirement: Available on the CME Group website or broker platforms.
Contract Size: The size of one futures contract (e.g., for the S&P 500 E-mini, it is $50 × index points).
Volatility Adjustment Factor: This is derived from historical volatility or CME's implied volatility estimates.

As we do not have access to CME calculations , the volatility adjustment factor can be estimated using historical volatility: We calculate the standard deviation of daily returns over a specific period (e.g., 20 or 30 or 60 days).

Key Considerations
The exact formulas and parameters used by CME for CME's implied volatility estimates are proprietary, so this calculation based on standard deviation of daily returns is an approximation.

How to use:

Input the maintenance margin obtained from the CME website.
Adjust volatility period calculation.

The indicator displays the range high and low for the trading day.
1.Lines can be used as targets intraday
2.Market tends to snap back in between the lines and close the day in the range