MS CRB/SPY

12 May 2021

This indicator tracks the GSCI Commodity Index over the course of the S&P 500. This is used for the fundamental evaluation of ratios of asset classes to each other. The thesis is based on Ray Dalio's quadrant theory: in periods without inflation and with good growth, stock prices rise and commodity prices fall. Conversely, in periods of good growth in an inflationary environment, commodities rise and the rise in equities slows. In particular, there is a change of favorites towards companies that produce cash (i.e. away from growth fantasies). This indicator shows the change in valuations between asset classes and thus allows conclusions to be drawn. This still goes far beyond what has been written, I recommend reading Ray Dalio's works on this.