LT Elliott Wave Addendum

LT Elliott Wave Addendum Indicator:

According to Elliott Wave Theory, price moves in 5 waves in the direction of the major trend and moves in 3 waves (ABC) when it moves against the major trend. The key purpose and value of elliott wave theory (EWT) is to provide context for chart analysis. According to the book The Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter: “This context provides both a basis for disciplined thinking and a perspective on the market's general position and outlook.” The benefit of having context is that one can identify and anticipate changes in direction.

In Elliott Wave theory, waves 1, 3, 5 and C are impulse waves (a five wave pattern that makes progress) whereas waves 2, 4, A and B are corrective waves (a three wave pattern – or combination of three waves - that moves against the direction of the larger trend). Although wave A can also be formed of 5 waves, it is commonly formed of 3 waves. Here is a brief summary of the waves:

Wave 3 tends to be the strongest and most dynamic wave – it is usually (but not always) the longest wave but it is never the shortest. Wave 4 is a corrective wave that is typically composed of 3 smaller waves (ABC) and is notorious for being messy and unpredictable in nature. Wave 5 is the final wave before a significant correction or reversal in trend and is often accompanied by divergences (e.g. negative divergences in an uptrend) and exhaustions in momentum. It is also possible for a wave 5 to form after a “blow-off top” pattern. Wave 2 is composed of 3 smaller waves (ABC) and is a retracement of wave 1 – the retracement can be shallow to moderate (23.6% to 38.2%) or deep (50%, 61.8% to 78.6%). Wave 1 is the first wave of a trend and is composed of 5 smaller waves – it usually occurs after divergences (in the prior move) and extremes in both sentiment and momentum. For example, the wave 1 of an uptrend can often begin after capitulation in the price (after a major decline), extremely pessimistic sentiment, extremely oversold momentum readings, positive divergences and sometimes accompanied by a volume breadth thrust. Waves A and C are often equal in measure. Wave A can be formed of either 5 waves or 3 waves - but more commonly it is composed of 3 waves. Wave B is always corrective and composed of 3 smaller waves. Wave C is a five wave impulse pattern.

The Elliott Wave indicator (and elliott wave addendum) seeks to simplify elliott wave theory (EWT) in that its main purpose is to identify the potential major trends and corrections. The indicator takes a more simple and direct approach to EWT in that it focuses more on trying to identify whether price is trending or not and if so, the probable wave pattern. It does this by mainly using the structure of the price chart and sometimes other factors such as divergences, momentum and the relationship of price to its key averages. The indicator then takes its best guess at whether price is in a trending environment, and if so, which wave it is probably forming. The wave count can therefore depend on the chart timeframe chosen. For example, what may appear as a major downtrend on a lower timeframe chart may potentially be a corrective drop on a much higher timeframe, due to the different price structure of the charts. To keep things simple and to avoid complexity, the indicator does not display the minor sub-waves within the major waves (probably with the exception of wave 4).

The main feature and benefit of the Elliott Wave indicator is that it can remove subjectivity in chart and wave analysis. It also for flexibility in that it allows the chartist to alter the wave count and the position of the wave counts if they choose to do so (within the parameters and rules set by the indicator). As with all of technical analysis, the wave counts shown by the elliott wave indicator are NOT certain – they are only a possibility or a probability. So the risk always exists of an alternative wave count. It is for the chartist to determine the probable wave counts and limit or control the risks based on their knowledge of technical analysis and risk management.

The LT Elliott Wave addendum indicator is meant to be used in combination with the main LT Elliott Waves indicator, so in this sense they supplement each other.

The settings of the LT Elliott Wave Addendum indicator (“EW addendum”) are fairly self-explanatory but here is a brief summary:

The Elliott Wave indicator has options in the settings to change the positions of certain wave counts based on the structure of the chart. This is achieved by choosing the different major and minor structures based on the zigzag patterns of the chart. So the user can alter the positions of certain wave counts (if needed) by modifying the zigzag structure on the chart.

The lookback period in the settings can be increased (or decreased) to include more data on the chart, when needed. In the majority of situations the lookback period can remain at the default setting of 200 bars – but the user can decide to take into account more (or less) data by changing the lookback period to 300 (or 100 if less data is required).

In the elliott wave addendum indicator, the most recent probable ABC waves are shown in pink and the probable 123 wave counts are shown in dark blue. The position of the wave counts can be changed and modified to a reasonable degree in the settings.

In certain circumstances where there are volatile conditions and charts, it is possible that the elliott wave addendum indicator may show an “unusual” wave count. For example, it is possible that the positions of certain wave counts (such as waves 1, 2, 3 and 5) may be in the “wrong” order. This happens rarely so it is not an issue that happens very often. However, if this issue occurs, the chartist can rectify the matter by first increasing the lookback period (e.g. to 300) to see if this resolves the issue. If it does not, then Alt9 “temporary wave shift” in the elliott wave addendum (EW addendum) can be enabled as this can usually resolve the issue and show the wave counts in a “proper” manner. Changing to a slightly lower timeframe can also usually resolve this issue. If Alt9 is enabled, care should be taken to unselect this option at a later date (as it is only a temporary solution).

The aggressive wave count setting (called “Aggressive 123”) is mainly for the addendum of the elliott wave indicator (i.e. EW addendum). Enabling this option can often change the wave count from an ABC to a 123 provided this is permitted by the parameters of the indicator. For example, if the elliott wave addendum indicator is showing an ABC wave count, it may be possible to change this wave count to a 123 wave count by enabling the “Aggressive 123” setting in the indicator. The other option is to change the wave count at the very top of the settings (where it says “Change recent ABC to 123”). This option as well as others are included for further flexibility in the wave count.

The user can also choose to enable the zigzags of the waves to be shown on the chart. This can display the minor and major wave structures and zigzags, if enabled. By default, it is set to off.

It may also be a good idea to reset the settings of the indicators whenever a new chart or timeframe is chosen. This then refreshes the settings back to its default.

It is important to appreciate that the elliott wave indicator generally requires between 1,500 to 2000 bars of data on the chart in order to display the wave counts adequately and appropriately. So if a chart or timeframe has less than the minimum number of historical data or bars on the chart, the wave counts may not display properly or not appear at all. Certain chart symbols and timeframes (such as the monthly timeframe) may have very limited amount of data on them. Therefore, the elliott wave indicator will likely not appear on these charts or may not display properly. In these situations, a different chart symbol or a lower timeframe with more data on it can be chosen. For example, instead of a monthly timeframe, a weekly or daily timeframe can be chosen.

The Elliott Wave Addendum indicator (“EW Addendum”) displays the most recent and “immediate” probable wave counts – usually after a potential wave 3 or a wave 5 of the main elliott wave indicator (i.e. LT Elliott Waves). So in this sense the EW addendum is more short term in that it focuses on the most recent price action (e.g. after a wave 5) in what may be either a possible corrective pattern (ABC) or the development of a potential new trend (123).

For example, let’s say the price has been trending up and we are seeing a probable wave 5 in the main elliott wave indicator (LT Elliott Waves), and then the price starts to reverse lower. The decline in price could either be an ABC correction or it may possibly be the beginning of a reversal or downtrend. The elliott wave addendum indicator (EW addendum) starts by showing the probable waves A, B and C of a correction (shown in pink). The EW addendum waits for the structure of the chart to develop before making its best guess at what may be an ABC pattern. However, if the price action begins to break support levels and the probability of a downward trend increases, then the wave count may change from ABC to 123 (shown in dark blue). The same principle can apply in the opposite direction: if the price has been trending down in a likely wave 5 and then suddenly price begins to reverse and move higher, at first we may see a potential ABC corrective pattern on the EW addendum indicator. However, if price continues to move up by a certain degree and break resistance levels the wave count may change on the EW addendum to a probable 123 uptrend.

The reason for why the possible ABC wave count may change to a possible 123 trending wave count is because the elliott wave indicator is programmed to look for and identify potential trending patterns (as well as corrective patterns). In this sense, we are looking to simplify elliott wave theory by taking a more flexible and common-sense approach to the wave patterns. So if the price action has broken key levels of support or resistance, momentum is increasing and price is moving deliberately in a specific direction, it becomes more likely that price is in a trending environment (rather than just a correction).

If the main elliott wave indicator (i.e. LT Elliott Waves) is showing a probable wave 3, and price begins to pullback or move in the opposite direction to the main trend of the wave 3, the EW addendum may be used to display the probable ABC wave counts. These ABC wave counts could be for the likely wave 4 correction. However, if price starts to break key support levels (e.g. after an uptrend) and then reverse lower in the opposite direction (to the mentioned wave 3), then it is likely that the main indicator will change the wave count from a wave 3 to a wave 5. This can indicate that the main uptrend may have probably ended and that we are in either a large correction or a trend reversal, as shown by the EW addendum. This example can also apply in reverse for downtrends (e.g. if price starts to break resistance levels and move higher after a downtrend).

We have allowed for further flexibility in the main elliott wave indicator (LT Elliott Waves) – including the EW addendum – so that the user can change the wave counts from a 123 to ABC (or vice versa) if they choose to do so. For example, if the EW addendum is showing a probable 123 wave count (in dark blue), the chartist can choose to change the wave counts to an ABC wave count from within the settings. Please allow up to minute or more for the change to take place as it can sometimes take some time for the modification to take effect.

The position of the wave counts (ABC or 123) can be changed as well to a reasonable degree. In the settings of the EW addendum the positions of the wave counts can be changed by applying Alt3 or by modifying the minor or major structure of the waves (or zigzags). There is also the option to modify or move the position of wave 2 (or Wave B) in Alt2 of the indicator. Please allow up to a minute or more for the change to take place as it can sometimes take some time for the modification to take effect.

The EW addendum indicator also has the option to show a probable projection for wave 4 by enabling this in the settings. This does not mean that the price has to move in the direction of that “wave 4” projection, but it is merely a guide on the basis of probabilities. The chartist can apply other methods of chart analysis – such as trendline breaks, oscillators, regression channels, breaks of support/resistance – to determine when a probable wave 4 has likely completed. However, confirmation that the probable wave 4 has completed will not come until price has taken out the highs prior to the decline (i.e. the highs before the pullback in the probable “wave 4” correction). The same applies in reverse for a downtrend: confirmation that the probable wave 4 has completed will not come until price has taken out the lows prior to the rally (in a probable wave 4 correction).

Here is a brief summary of the “aggressive 123” option in the EW addendum settings: the aggressive wave count setting is mainly for the EW addendum. Enabling this option can often change the wave count from an ABC to a 123 provided this is permitted by the parameters of the indicator. For example, if the elliott wave addendum indicator is showing an ABC wave count, it may be possible to change this wave count to a 123 wave count by enabling the “Aggressive 123” setting in the indicator. The other option is to change the wave count at the very top of the settings (where it says “Change recent ABC to 123”). This option as well as others are included for further flexibility in the wave count.

It should be remembered that the appearance of the most recent wave counts (or wave labels) shown by the indicator, by themselves do NOT mean that the specific waves in question have definitely completed or finished. Nothing in chart analysis is certain or definite. The wave label itself is simply an indication that the most recent wave is probably still in progress, not necessarily that it has completed. Chartists can apply other technical analysis tools and methods (e.g. trend lines, support/resistance breaks, moving averages and regression channels etc.) to increase the probability of when a specific wave has probably completed. The same also applies to past or “completed” wave counts (or past wave labels): they do NOT mean that the specific waves have definitely completed or finished – it is merely a possibility or probability. So the risk always exists that the wave counts may potentially be wrong, and that an alternative wave count interpretation may exist.
Price action, markets and their charts are non-linear and chaotic, which means that they are subject to uncertainty, variable change and being unpredictable in nature. So we must maintain a probabilistic mindset and attitude to technical analysis. Nothing is certain. Therefore, no wave count is certain or “set in stone”. Wave counts, just like the actions and emotions of human beings, are subject to change. Elliott Wave theory, just like all of technical analysis is about what is possible, what is probable and what the risks are of a particular outcome. The advantage of elliott wave theory, as explained previously, is about gaining an understanding of context and the likely big picture. The indicator is provided in good faith but we do not vouch for its accuracy.

As mentioned previously, chartists should be aware of the probabilistic and uncertain nature of price action and the markets, and therefore prepare to limit and control any potential risks.

The indicator can be used on the charts of the majority of markets (e.g. stocks, indices, ETFs, currencies, cryptocurrencies, precious metals, commodities etc.) and any timeframe. Nothing in this indicator, its signals or labels should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any market (e.g. stocks, securities, indices, ETFs, currencies, cryptocurrencies, metals, commodities etc.). The indicator is provided solely for educational purposes, to gain a better understanding of technical analysis and elliott wave theory. It should be noted that the degree of noise and randomness increases significantly on lower timeframes. So the lower the timeframe that is chosen (e.g. 15-min or lower) the greater the degree of noise and randomness and therefore the higher the frequency of false signals or whipsaws. The indicator can be applied to candlestick charts and bar charts.

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