BTC - Satoshis Altcoin Graveyard

OVERVIEW
The Satoshi's Altcoin Graveyard (SAG) is a macro-statistical engine designed to solve the problem of Survivorship Bias. It is a well-known phenomenon in the crypto markets that the "Top 10" list is in a constant state of flux. If you look at historical data from CoinMarketCap (CMC) year by year, you will see a revolving door of projects that once seemed "too big to fail" disappearing into obscurity. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has remained the undisputed #1 since inception.
While most traders have a "gut feeling" that Altcoins eventually depreciate against Bitcoin, I believe in measuring it and drawing it on a chart for better visibility. By locking in specific "Cohorts" of market leaders from the past, we can track their inevitable decay through the Satoshi Sieve.

THE 13-COIN STATISTICAL BUCKET
To ensure an objective, non-biased audit, each cohort (we look at 2018, 2020 and 2022) is constructed using a fixed market-cap methodology from the snapshot date (excluding stablecoins):
• The Core: The Top 10 non-stablecoin assets at that time by Marketcap.
• The Risk Alpha: Representative samples from the Top #25, #50, and #100 ranks. (By including lower-ranked "riskier" alts, we capture the full statistical decay of the market, not just the "Blue Chips.")

TECHNICAL ARCHITECTURE
This script is engineered to push the boundaries of the Pine Script engine. TradingView enforces a hard limit of 40 unique data requests. By tracking 3 cohorts of 13 assets plus the Bitcoin base, this indicator utilizes exactly 40/40 requests, providing the maximum possible data density in a single chart window.

THE SPS CONCEPT (Survival Probability Score)
The SPS measures the Breadth of Survival. It answers: "How many coins from this year (the year of the snapshot) are actually outperforming BTC?"
We use a binary logic system to determine if a coin is "Winning" or "Losing" against the only benchmark that matters: Bitcoin.
• The Status Formula: Status = Current_Alt_BTC_Ratio >= Entry_Alt_BTC_Ratio ? 1 : 0. This means: Every single day, at the Daily Close, the script compares the current Alt/BTC ratio to the fixed ratio from the snapshot date. If the coin is worth more in Bitcoin today than it was back then, it is assigned a "1" (a Win). If it has lost value against Bitcoin, it gets a "0" (a Loss).
• The SPS Line: SPS Line = (Sum of 'Wins' / 13) * 100 This means: We add up all the "Winners" for that specific day and turn it into a percentage. For example, if the Aqua line is at 7.69% on your chart, it confirms that on that day, exactly 1 out of the 13 coins was successfully beating Bitcoin, while the other 12 were underperforming.

THE PERFORMANCE MATRIX
In the top-right corner, we provide a Weighted Portfolio Simulation. This answers the financial question: "If I swapped 1 BTC into an equal-weight basket of these 13 coins on the snapshot day, what is my BTC value today?".
• Value < 1.0 BTC: You lost purchasing power compared to holding Bitcoin.
• Value > 1.0 BTC: You successfully achieved "Alpha" over the benchmark.

HOW TO READ THE CHART
• The Waterfall: Lines generally trend downward as the "Satoshi Sieve" filters out assets that cannot maintain their BTC-relative value.
• Dynamic Winners: We dynamically print the names of the current survivors at the tip of each line. If a cohort shows "None," the graveyard is full.

HOW TO READ THE MATRIX
• The BTC Target: Any portfolio value in the matrix below 1.0 BTC represents a failed altcoin rotation.
• Class of 2018: A portfolio value near 0.15 BTC at the current date, means a 85% loss rate.
• Class of 2020: A portfolio value near 0.77 BTC at the current date, means an approx 20 % loss rate.
• Class of 2022: A portfolio value near 0.31 BTC at the current date, means an approx 70% loss rate.

DIFFERENCE FROM AN ALTCOIN INDEX
Standard Altcoin Indexes (like my ALSI Index) "rebalance" by removing losers and adding new winners. This is deceptive. The Altcoin Graveyard never rebalances. It forces you to watch the "losers" decay, providing a realistic look at the long-term opportunity cost of "Buy and Hold" for anything other than Bitcoin.

CONCLUSION
The data revealed by the Satoshi Sieve leads to a singular, sobering "Lesson Learned": Picking the right coin to outperform Bitcoin is not just difficult—it is statistically improbable over a long-term horizon.
While the "Risk-Reward" of altcoins is often marketed as having higher upside, the Altcoin Graveyard proves that for the vast majority of assets, the reward does not justify the risk of total portfolio erosion in BTC terms.
• The Mathematical Odds: If you picked a Top 10 coin in 2018, your chance of outperforming BTC today is effectively 0%.
• The Rotation Trap: Most investors "HODL" these assets into the graveyard, hoping for a return to previous ATHs that never comes because the liquidity has already moved on to the next "Class" of winners.
The final conclusion is clear: Diversification into altcoins is often just a slow-motion transfer of wealth back to Bitcoin. If you cannot identify the 1-out-of-13 that survives the Sieve, your best risk-adjusted move has historically been to simply hold the benchmark.

DISCLAIMER
This script is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. It is a mathematical study of historical opportunity cost and survivorship bias.

Tags
bitcoin, btc, satoshis graveyard, altseason, dominance, total3, rotation, cycle, index, alsi, Rob Maths, robmaths