Soybeans Crashing Into Demand — Reversal Coming or Trap?

24 Haz

1. COT REPORT — Updated June 17, 2025

📌 Non-Commercials (Speculators)
Long: +5,661 → 195,984
Short: -9,226 → 110,761
✅ Net Long Increase: A clear bullish shift in speculative positioning (+14,887 net contracts). This is an early indication of a sentiment reversal.

📌 Commercials (Hedgers / Producers)
Long: +6,023
Short: -5,806
➡️ The decrease in net shorts suggests improving confidence among institutional players.

📌 Total Open Interest: 846,169 (down by 12,776)
❗ This slight drop may be linked to position rotation or partial profit-taking.

2. NET POSITIONS CHART INSIGHT
Commercial traders remain structurally net short, but their exposure has been gradually declining since March.
Non-commercial traders have increased their net long positions since April, aligned with the price's technical recovery.
The current price is trading near the historical mean, indicating neutral conditions with potential room for further upside.

🕰️ 3. SEASONALITY OUTLOOK

The June–July period has historically been bearish:
June Average Performance:
Last 5 years: -39.61
Last 2 years: -38.71
July Average Performance:
Last 20 years: -44.82
Last 2 years: -34.73

📉 August and September typically continue this seasonal downtrend.
🟨 Caution is advised on initiating long positions during this phase.

📊 4. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK —
Current Structure:

Rising channel has broken to the downside with a strong bearish impulse candle.
RSI is neutral but previously showed bearish divergence.
Key Support Zones:

1035–1025: Intermediate support area already tested.
1012–994: Golden Pocket aligned with a demand block — likely target zone with high potential for reaction.
Possible Scenarios:

🔴 Bearish Continuation: A retracement followed by a move down into the 994–1000 range, where a tactical long setup may emerge.

🔵 Bull Trap and Reversal: A rapid recovery above 1050, potentially triggering a continuation to 1080 (range top).

5. EXECUTION SUMMARY
Primary Bias: Bearish in the short term
🎯 Target Zone: 994–1000
🛑 Invalidation Level: Weekly close above 1055

Tactical Long Setup: Monitor price action at 994–1000 for bullish reaction.
Macro context and speculative positioning suggest a structural bottom may develop in Q3 2025, but current conditions are not yet favorable for a full swing position.

27 Haz

İşlem aktif

Waiting that the price reaches the demand zone and then I will evaluate a possible long trade