Shortening Yahoo: pick between immediate gain or the big picture

15 Eyl 2016

THE REWARD

The $NASDAQ:YHOO chart is self-explanatory. The entry price $44.39, though above the resistance line originating at all time high, is still below the short-term channel's top which started developing itself after what is believed to be an exhausting gap appeared on Aug 11. The SL @ $45.44 placed well above the all time high, should still provide an acceptable loss given the potential reward and is meant to avoid being hit by the bear stops run. In fact, the price is not expected to exceed much the $44.92 high printed on Sep 7.

THE RISK

If the gap turns out to rather be a measuring gap, then the losses will have to be sucked up.


And here is the bigger picture chart

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ybEXzHQM/

16 Eyl 2016

Not

Correction to the chart above

19 Eyl 2016

Not

However, if the price manages to penetrate and stay above the Sep 9 peak of $44.92, here is the opposite scenario. This would also validate the early Sep gap as being a measuring gap rather than exhausting.

20 Eyl 2016

Not

Textbook H&S pattern. Bullish scenario can be pretty much trashed now. Yahoo is going downhill:

TP1 ~ $38.00
TP2 ~ $35.50
TP3 ~ 26.50
Final destination - $22.50 or lower

If you want to play safe, however, wait until the price gets under $42.40 (i.e. under the H&S neckline) for the confirmation.

20 Eyl 2016

Not

23 Eyl 2016

Not

Apparently, the "sure" textbook H&S scenario didn't quite work out.
Well, then - back to the double-top scenario from the original post.

23 Eyl 2016

Not

The bearish rising flag:



BABA seems to be on the same bearish path as its famous shareholder:

13 Eki 2016

Not

So far so good! After a few week of hesitation, YHOO is finally getting serious about making me money on my short : )

It's even getting close to close the exhausting gap. Maybe even today..



The bigger picture:



And even bigger picture:

13 Eki 2016

Not

Nope, the gap will unlikely be closed today. 60 min is pretty oversold. It might need some time to recover. But the earnings report on the 17th could potentially be a trigger for further downside...

3 Kas 2016

Not

Between yesterday and today we seem to have confidently broken the channel (red lines) and the triangle (within the channel) and are likely to finally t Aug 11 exhausting gap later in the day.

Upon that happening, I'll be eventually targeting the $21 area as shown on the weekly chart above and, depending on the action at that point, potentially $17 area as shown on monthly.