XTIUSD (WTI Crude Oil) – Market Analysis (23rd March 2025)

23 Mar

XTIUSD (WTI Crude Oil)

Timeframe: 4H

1. Mak Method
Price recently broke above the descending trendline, indicating a potential bullish shift.

Key 369 Level: Price is hovering around $68.61, aligning with my levels.

If price maintains above $67.50, we could see continued bullish movement.

2. Fibonacci, Gann Levels & Elliott Wave

Fibonacci Retracement:

61.8% level at $72.50, making it a critical upside target.

Gann Levels:

Major support at $66.00, which aligns with institutional buying zones.

Elliott Wave Count:

Potential Wave 3 underway, with a break above $70 confirming bullish momentum.

3. Key Technical Levels (Support & Resistance)
Support Levels:

$67.50 - $66.00 → Strong demand zone, potential bullish retest.

$61.50 - $60.00 → Major institutional support (if breakdown occurs).

Resistance Levels:

$69.50 - $70.00 → Short-term resistance, possible liquidity grab.

$72.50 - $75.00 → Next bullish target, aligning with Fibonacci & order blocks.

4. Probable Scenarios with Probability %

Scenario Probability

Bullish Breakout: Retest of $67.50, then continuation to $70-$72.50. 65%

Fake Breakout & Rejection: Price rejects $69.50 and retraces to $66.00. 25%

Bearish Breakdown: Failure to hold $66.00, leading to a drop to $61.50-$60.00. 10%


5. Conclusion & Trading Strategy

Bias: Bullish above $67.50, bearish below $66.00.

Entry Areas:

Long Entry → Retest of $67.50 with confirmation.

Short Entry → Breakdown below $66.00, targeting $61.50.

Stop Loss:

Long trades → Below $65.80.

Short trades → Above $70.50.

Final Thoughts:

Watch for false breakouts at $69.50 before confirming bullish moves.

If price consolidates above $68.50 - $69.00, we could see a rally toward $72.50 - $75.00.

Volume Confirmation: Institutional buying at $67.50 could trigger a strong bullish move.

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