RE - Real Estate Double Top Before FOMC

30 Eki 2021

Idea for Real Estate:
- Real Estate testing a double top after some exhaustion Sept-Oct.
- MBB's rolling over, rejected at -1 Std Dev:


- Because every other market component is already at +2/-2 Std Dev, and Real Estate is relatively less volatile than say S&P 500, I think the +1/-1 Std Dev is a good signal.
- We will have more confirmation next week depending on Fed's decision to taper MBS purchases. I think the Fed will stick to their signaled schedule in hopes of avoiding any sort of a "tantrum".
- Historically, RE and MBS's lead declines in equities.
- We have seen both commodity prices, Building Permits and pending Home Sales come down, so a decline is natural:


- Overseas property market declining is likely to have headwinds as well:


GLHF
- DPT

3 Kas 2021

Not

2/3 of the 7000 homes that Zillow Group bought are underwater, causing it to lay off 25% of its workers:


Real estate crisis getting closer to home