XLM Crashes Below Key Support – Is a Reversal Near?

XLM has broken its previous low, raising the question: where is the next major support zone? To determine this, we will focus on fibonacci, moving averages, and order blocks to find a high-probability bounce area for a potential long position.

🔍 Fibonacci Retracement – Locating the Next Support Level
Using the Fibonacci retracement tool from the low at $0.0757 to the high at $0.6374:

• 0.618 Fib Retracement → $0.2903 (Already Lost) ❌ Current Price: $0.248
  
• Next Major Fib Level – 0.786 Retracement at $0.1959
  

Since the 0.786 Fib level is a key retracement point, we need further confluence factors to confirm its strength as a potential support zone.

🔗 Confluence Factors Strengthening the Support Zone ($0.1959 – $0.17179)

1:1 Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension

• High: $0.6374
  
• A: $0.3179
  
• B: $0.515
  
• 1:1 extension aligns at $0.1902 → Strong confirmation near 0.786 Fib retracement ✅
  

Wave A-B Fibonacci Extension

• 1.618 Fib extension from wave A to B is at $0.1875 → Aligns with the 1:1 trend-based extension ✅
  

Daily Support Level at $0.1962

• Sits almost exactly at the 0.786 retracement ($0.1959) ✅
  

21 EMA & 21 SMA for Moving Average Support

• 21 EMA at $0.20338
  
• 21 SMA at $0.17187
  

Order Block Between $0.2208 – $0.1964

• Demand area aligns with the major support zone ✅
  

Key Takeaway:
A high-probability support zone is now identified between $0.1959 and $0.17179, with multiple confluences suggesting a strong potential bounce.

Trade Plan – Scaling Into a Long Position
Given the strong confluence at the support zone, the best approach is scaling into a long trade.

DCA Entry Strategy:

• Start scaling in at $0.22, as an order block exists between $0.2208 – $0.1964
  
• Main focus remains on the support zone ($0.1959 – $0.17179)
  

Stop Loss:

• Below the 21 SMA ($0.17187) for invalidation
  

Take Profit Levels for Optimal R:R:

• First TP at $0.25 → Resistance area
  
• Next TP at $0.30 → Strong psychological & resistance level
  

R:R Approximation:

• 2:1 R:R for first TP ($0.25)
  
• 3:1+ R:R if targeting $0.30
  

High-Probability Support Zone Identified

• ✔ Multiple confluences confirm a strong support zone at $0.1959 – $0.17179
  
• ✔ Scaling into a long from $0.22 to $0.17179, with stop loss below the 21 SMA ($0.17187)
  
• ✔ Take profit levels set at $0.25 & $0.30 for a solid R:R trade
  

Alternative bullish scenario: A reclaim of lost key low at $2526 with rising volume could signal a long opportunity, only on confirmation.

💬 Will XLM bounce from this key support? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 🚀🔥