XLK 42.78-neutral- Consolidates within a 3-week range

XLK has been consolidating within a 3-week range between 42.97 (July 23, 2015 high) and 41.83 (August 7, 2015 low). An upside break above 42.97 would extend strength towards the 43.81 double top (as shown on the daily cahrt). However, a breakdown below 41.83 (near the 200 day moving average) would suggest near-term topping and weaken towards the 7-month range low at 40.79 (July 9, 2015 low).
Outlook:
Short term: neutral
Long term: bullish