XLE - Chance to hold

As we can see from the chart, the price had increased over the bearish trendline - which had stood for months, and reached the resistance of EMA 200-period. Besides, the price still created a long tail, although there was massive Sell Volume.
=> XLE would have a great chance of going up.
There are two strategies for this:
1. Going long whenever the price close above the EMA 200-period
2. Wait for the price to test the bearish trendline again and get a long position.