Güncellendi

The king needs reinforcements at 3.3K

The road back to earth to consolidate and accumulate more soldiers to then once more conquer new stars and their moons.

Not

The correction is not over and I've made a mistake by drawing it to go to 4.8k before 13k, when I think the bottom should be here or a little bit lower, but not lower than 6k, since 6.5k is the spring if not 6.3k, before breaking all lower resistance levels with the first impulse move.

Why? If it breaks 6k, it means the first correction leg is not over and we get a much longer bear market than anyone are thinking now and the prospects for crypto will be bad, when it it still has to undergo the adoption and implementation phase, hence required capital.
The fact that most are scared as hell and even amateurs are shorting near the bottom now makes me think we're ready for a good move up.

I've laddered down buys and bought spot and continue to do so.

I do not listen to people who never experienced any bear market and think the only way is down, down, down AFTER the obvious fact (why are they always late to anything is beyond me) when I was shorting every bounce since January when they laughed me at being bearish, while the same people are continuously switch bull/bear positions every hour when btc makes a move based on emotion and lack of knowledge, which I cannot take seriously or dedicate any energy or time to. I used to scalp this in high volatile moves, but markets have dried up considerably, so I'm looking for a good swing trade without third party counter risk and rollover fees, hence spot buys. I do the opposite and can't wait for another huge liquidation en masse.

Remember, market maker loves to do the opposite of positions, just watch since the start of bitfinex position data feed, so it can make money and yes, they need to earn money as well.

Imho, this isn't a bad place to buy with ~65% discount from the top for the short-middle term to get 1.5x return or double or triple your account.
In the end, it's all about money- and riskmanagement anyway and the returns for shorting here vs buying have diminished returns and carry much higher risk.

How high do we go? No one knows, but a strong impulsive move is due. I'm confident we will see at least see 9.4k and have enough cash at the ready to buy more to facilitate that move.

If we do see capitulation from here, which is very unlikely, I'll buy that as well.
Do not be fearful, that's what dumpers want you to be so they buy cheaper from the bottom back. How do you think spoofy has increased his stack significantly? If (s)he/they really wanted to sell that bottom, it would be out, ain't coming back and not manipulating every single day. Makes sense, right?

I've criticized hodling a time ago in one of my posts, but there is a place for hodling, which is:
- Cheap price (it's still high, but cheap enough for a short-mid term trade comparing to what is dumped and you never know what will happen anyway (i.e. continuing for the next bull run), so to have some crypto in your portfolio is a good thing from a long term as well as from an investment perspective as well)
- Another valid point is that of the now famous article of "the cartel", which in conclusion is about the goal of market share (thus control) for manipulators, which I've pointed out as well in one of my posts about crypto fraud a time ago, i.e. the redistribution of wealth. Why do you think control freaks usually end up in a position they're craving for? There is a method to their madness and there isn't much method to the masses.

Not

I'm actually quite bullish for crypto and btc long term.

Some FA will follow in this post.

I've explained some of my arguments in

The coming collapse - Crypto fraud about to end soon with a BANG

To extend that, the market cap is tiny to what will be a big part of what's coming in the future, especially once regulated and companies are working on real world solutions and even some privacy currencies for private societies within a global open society, as one of the best traders ever, George Soros likes to call it.
I think the United Nations can vouch for this too, as they also adore Stellar.

I've thought and meditated about the future of crypto and maybe I should lower my bearish expectations a little bit for even the short-medium term, which I reflected on my outlook above (inc. the chart). To proof that, I've laddered in buys and bought as I don't want to miss out and don't mind to lose 30% if it will make thousands of % later on. Of course, this is small size of my available capital.

Extra arguments why I'm bullish that way more money is coming in is that corporations, small funds, investment groups and other fund/hedge companies still need to get in. Some hedge funds went in too early at the wrong time, but I'm very sure there will be much more to follow suit once the market settles with regulations and insurances in place.
What is notable is that George Soros made it public that he's gonna trade crypto's (as an institutional trader), so he probably already shorted, because news comes after the fact, whether by design or not. We know this, as they pulled a classical scam with xrp on cnbc when xrp was at the top and they always have done this for traditional stocks as well.

So where does the institutional trader fit in the market cycle? They come out when the market has almost bottomed and are ready for the next bubble. They're usually classified as being in 1/3 of the super cycle (i.e. 2 more bubbles to go), while the masses are the last one for the last big bubble at the top, which aren't still in yet, while crypto is the most easiest and accessible place to buy and sell compared to the dot com stock market period.

They come in before the pension and other funds step in. Corporations are not allowed to buy shares in speculative assets as of yet (or securities/commodities), but they have come before the HFT and institutional traders, which fits the classical market participant cycle a 100%. Also, many retail traders have to come in yet.

Maybe I should adjust my views and we might not see 3.3k anymore. 4.8k, maybe, who knows. I doubt the big boys will let it drop too much, as they've too much invested already, like the winklevoss brothers with their own pool.

Not

Correction in the second last paragraph: Corporations are not allowed to buy shares in UNREGULATED speculative assets. Makes sense, since they have shareholders as well and have to follow strict rules.

Not

Lots of questions what HFT means. It means High Frequency Traders.

They use mathematical and statistical algorithms following the big boys (in the darkpools) or attempt to do so, whilst many traders and fomo'ers/folo'ers chase HFT price action. They also can use indicators to lure in more traders and do the opposite of what was expected, hence I never use indicators, but use some of my own for backtesting only. It's dangerous to use indicators with hft in the game.

Not

Lots of questions why I think the bottom is in or near bottom.
It's very simple:
#1 Volume declining for downtrend. The last huge dumps, especially last one and price barely moved, which are very bullish signs;

#2 Shorts at an ath, +17k in few weeks and price barely moved. Not many sellers anymore, so the short squeeze is about to happen. Lots of criers and quitters soon, again. Good, you should have shorted at the top and not near the bottom, it's part of money and risk management, this is no more amateur game and easy money. Shorters going to pay if this was bottom and I'm sure we're near it, even if we go lower, because when they close, the price is going to skyrocket and a lot will be liquidated, since a lot shorted around 7k. Enough rocket fuel for 11k. This is why I take longs/shorts finex data feed with a big salt of grain, like I've said before, not the smartest folks who short bottoms and long tops and lots to lose when you follow the masses (just do the RR yourself, what is better: shorting at 11.7k or 6k and EVEN if 4.8k is bottom, the shorts need to close and the order book does NOT facilitate +17k back to 7.5k, it will be over 10k. This will not be the "big short", but the "big short squeeze" and champagne bottles popping.
twitter.com/flibbr/status/983461805451247617
pbs.twimg.com/media/DaK6e7FWsAAenMf.png
pbs.twimg.com/media/DaYAQC4WsAIGMi7.jpg:large

#3 Lots of big money coming in. Have told a few friends here on tv last week before the news of the big boys came in from some clients who want to put big money in and I'm not talking few millions here;

#4 Very bullish news coming in june/july, especially with regulations and governments, eu and un pro crypto. Compare dot com bubble with crypto, we're not even close, especially considering:
a) More people on the planet today;
b) Very easy to buy and sell everywhere in the world where we have the internet now;
c) QE caused for more inflation.

I was not only one attacked for calling bitcoin bubble in december and people calling me stupid when I shorted 17k and 11.7k when they were long. Now they short the bottom again when I'm buying spot all the way down, they never learn.

But Peter Brandt afaik was the the FIRST one who called the bubble pop on 22 December 2017, the real legend was 100% right again. And look at his comments, EVERYONE attacked him as well, so now you can imagine what I've felt, just read comments on his tweet.

twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/944027711881715714

The normie traders saw the bubble pop late March 2017, sorry, but I cannot take them serious. Do you know what buy low, sell high means? I doubt anybody can give me the high and low given a chart at any given time and being right. Talking is easy, making > 80% winning trades is not.

Of course there are correlations with previous bubble in '14, but that does NOT mean it will go exactly as that, especially given exposure and good things that are coming out this year. That's why I've said before to have an open mind and not being dogmatic, because all successful people I've met are openminded, always wanting to learn and grow and are not dogmatic.

Good luck my friends and don't fear, because that's what bottom shorters all are hoping for and trying to achieve with the most bearish charts, to cover their losses when they flip their sentiment out of the blue.

Not

I've did some more analysis on the fractals of '14 and although they are pretty accurate and used them before in my scalping and why hodling is stupid charts, I've never relied on them, other then something to be interesting how the correlation is pretty strong.
Ok, even if we 95% are replaying '14, then on the monthly chart, we would have to make a triple top around 11k and the bottom before that would be ~5.8k'ish and since the top had a $300 delta, it would basically be a double bottom around 6k as well. That would be close to my target of 11.15k.

If we really are nit picky, then we would have to increase the price of bitcoin with 5x as well (100k btc) to have the same bullrun % to apply the same correction % or it won't count as saying we replayed 2014, would it? And what about 2011 (10x is 200k btc for ~90% correction)? Therefore, I don't expect a correction to 3.3k anymore, because then we would have to take the entire structure in to reconsideration and calculate with log mean regression which points to 3 digits. It's possible, but unlikely. It won't happen anytime soon, crypto and blockchain has not even been implemented yet for real world use. You can wait on the sidelines for that bottom and in the meantime miss the next and maybe last bullrun, buy a bit and hold for the long term or buy and set a stop for a few % lower and buy back cheaper if you're wrong. The differences between 3k vs 6k vs 20k are significantly larger for the latter pair than the former. So if you wan't to execute proper money management, you always scale in and out a fraction of your capital in relation to risk:reward. It's the difference between buying near the bottom and enjoying the ride of 6k to almost 12k and not being in at all or buying at 9k for half of what you could have made minus the scaling delta.

'13 and '14 were very bad years and I remember those and mt gox was just a catalysator in an already downwards market, not because mt gox, but despite it. The real kicker was the central bank of China blocking all bitcoin transactions from and to any entity. And I doubt it was because of China alone, because there were fake bot pumps from mt gox itself pumping up the price ~10x in ~2 months.
So you had less money coming in, but price pumped 10x and with mt gox issues, the selling was sharp and the finishing move.

At the moment, we have had huge sell offs, but not the same situation as then when a lot of money was getting out with a lot less market participants and more risk. Right now, a lot of money still needs to come in. And yes, it's a bubble, but we've corrected pretty hard in a relatively short time so the redistribution of wealth can actually be completed pretty fast, although I think we need to finish the entire correction instead of trying to truncate it, but that means up first and reevaluate on the way, because that's an open question how much people value bitcoin, i.e. willing to pay for what price, since the interests are huge, but everybody interested wants to buy it as cheap as possible, unlike the hype and fomo.

Not

Bigger picture with '11 in it as well

Not

Bearish scenario and last possible leg, rr wise not smart to short near bottom where shorts are at ath and even joe smoe is shorting. If you don't trust it, then sit on the sidelines or scale if you don't wanna miss out any direction.

Going lower than 5.2k and I consider a failed ew correction since '15 and entering a full blown bear market which lasts longer than the previous one taking the bubble before it into the calculation to end possible in the 3 digits, starting with 4.8k then 3.3k which was my original roadmap for months now. Then people make new roadmaps that go even lower until we end up with 3 digits btc.

It then becomes a selffulling prophecy and then the entire point of darkpools become a stupid idea for the short term, as those big boys are better off putting $500 million buy orders in the books to defend their wealth and small whales have no chance to manipulate the market further or execute one large order at the exchange to punish margin traders in any direction by force liquidating or stopping them out.

I don't see it happening, because the returns would be higher than previous bullruns, which is extremely unlikely if we look at logarithmic growth (also over time where it takes longer and longer) where each bullrun gets more diminished returns, which follows the law of big numbers.

Just like when people wanted and called 10k, then didn't buy, then called 8k, then didn't buy, then called 6k, then didn't buy, then called 4k and didn't buy. Please.

Not

At least I can say "as expected" vs the 99% who're wrong yet again.
It's not finished yet. +$1300 in 1 hour, beautiful short squeeze, but instead of closing, they DOUBLE DOWN, didn't I told you that before which some of my whales friends did before as well? This, ladies and gentleman, is the redistribution of dumb/luck money to the bigger boys and a sure way in to poverty and back to being an employee at McDonalds (and there is nothing wrong to the latter to be honest).
Keep shorting the bottom geniuses. Buy low sell high does not apply to you, which also goes to a lesser extend for trend followers.

The pump was facilitated with spot buys. The longs vs shorts keep going down, especially that long close of 2.4k and price still shoots to +15%.
For all naysayers and those who attacked me, we're not finished here and you'll get what you deserve. Do not cry on reddit how you lost 80% in daytrading or blame others for your mistakes, please.

If 17k still needs to be closed when they opened around an average of 7.3k and we take 8k as the average and we take someone like George Soros who want to make easy and quick money, he would liquidate them for easy $136 million gains in less than one week - minus overhead + fomo and breakout traders (give or take another $40 million). Now given they keep doubling down at an average of 1.2 per +%10, that still is more fuel to the upside, albeit lower rr, good and easy enough money for any market maker straight to 11k. Like I've said before, that's how mm books profit, since they need to earn money as well.

Not

Longs vs short ratio @
imgur.com/a/EpSmR

Longs closing, shorts increasing and price going up, up and up. Beautiful. As said before, a strong bullish signal and a good confirmation normies need to feel more pain and that we're not done yet.

For those naysayers that margin/debt does not matter like long/short ratio, you ever wondered about how MM needs to make money, doesn't matter which market? Debt will always come back to you eventually. Do you know anything in this game at all or are you just gambling and mumbo jumbling and keep being a sheep? You ever wondered how bubbles are formed? Do you even wonder the most simple question how it's possible for you to make or lose money?

Talking about bubbles, there is a good book (~160 years old; be sure to get the right version) that talks about the psychology of why this happens:
Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions

I'm speaking common sense here, which is my goal for you to eventually become successful in your own right without the need to follow others' calls, including me. I don't give financial advice and my thoughts are my own and will have sometimes bad calls. I don't care to have many followers and to be honest, I want it as small as possible and believe in cause and effect. Those who want or are supposed to hear it will and those who don't, do not. Simple as that.

Not

Some funny people claim I've made that yellow target box after the fact/pump. Oh, really? I've made it before the pump last night and posted it to a friend here on tv.

Not

Going as planned. Btc extremely bullish if we can keep it above the first yellow box (7.9k). I see a setup forming for next impulsive move to 8.9k straight. Longs took profit and closed with thousands of closed longs and price remained the same, which is confirmation I'm looking for. Upside potential is enormous. Most alts are mooning. Let the shorters be in disbelief and double down, free money for the bulls.

Not

Pullback to finish 5 if 5 wave to buy (back) in, and if enough fiat comes back Monday at exchanges for another impulsive move to 8.9k to finish at 9.2-9.4k, making this a 3 wave for the bigger 5 ahead, otherwise book some profit at 8.5k and 8.9k just in case and let the rest ride with a stop loss, with buy backs on early spotting of hft accumulation zones or if you have some balls, trade on the breakout or if you're a daytrader and love the 5/15m charts, spot structures early on to capitulate on that.

I've got a feeling some big moves are in the making in the coming two weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't reach retrace target with $50-$100 given the bullish bias across the board, which we haven't seen for quite some time, so scale in if you still want to get in using spot buys or enjoy watching the markets.

Not

I don't like to push too many updates for intraday charts, only the larger swing trades, but want to let you guys know what I'm seeing now.

It's looking very bullish and did as of yet not retrace to 38.2%, which I'm not surprised of like I've said last night by $50-$100, but it stopped even higher than that, very nice. It's possible we still go visit it, but it becomes more unlikely as a new structure is forming for newer lower highs.

I see a current structure forming for the next impulse up if it holds the higher low, which looks to be ready to complete very soon, so do not take this as fact, these are my observations to capitalize on early opportunities with a higher degree of risk but better rewards.
I repeat: Do NOT base your targets on mine in chart below, as it's not confirmed. This is more in line of education than anything else and seeing things others don't to give you an idea of my mindset and methodology. I sometimes use my own indicators to backtest and level 2 marketprofile we use at the office to spot high probability reversal zones.

If so, 8.9k, pullback, then 9.4k, which I'm looking for for weeks now (the test of 9.4k). If break that, which is high probability, it can go anywhere between 11.5k-16k, but looking to book small profit at 11.15k.
As for me, I don't have to trade for a living, I've got secondary income and when I see discounts I add to my bags for the long haul. As for profits, 50% goes back in to btc, to take some marketshare away without the intent to sell it too early, which helps the price to go up, which is a win-win for everybody who're in now or still want to get in and are not on the short side.

Not

I think too many people are still in disbelief and like I've said before, that goes for both at the top as for the bottom.

I'm looking forward for Monday, when more money arrives at the exchanges, at least mine is cleared last Friday, but not yet arrived. As many of you know, I was mostly in cash for the last several months and see a bigger potential up than down for the last few weeks now, with so many sell offs around the bottom that were absorbed very nicely.

I've to repeat this one more time, since people think it's whales play only, it's possible, but not likely, imho. With bigger money coming in and still is way more to come, whales do not dictate price in near future anymore, if not already is (since the observation of rampant hft price action, which I've told you earlier about), as whales becoming small fish themselves (and yes, they got roasted on the short side, too bad for them, but most of them were manipulating themselves with huge insta dumps using fakenews websites as an excuse, so karma came back to wipe them clean, so they've been taught a lesson to also not underestimate the intelligence and power of big boys and are now a lot less more poor (there goes your 4-7 years of trading gains wiped out in seconds and I know some who never cashed out a single dollar; call it cause and effect, karma, balance of nature, chi, whatever, you get the point) - why take over exchanges when you can own them at their own game) and playing with hundreds of millions of dollar orders in darkpools, it's just playing with fire to overleverage on any exchange or broker, as it's in their best interest to maintain pricelevel to protect their wealth.
You'd do the same if you invested $500 million dollars in to btc for x price, you'd defend x price on the exchanges themselves eventually vs small whale play and petty manipulators who are trying to destroy your wealth with relative meager sized orders to maintain price floor and punish them, makes sense, right?

I still think that we're in a correction that spans 3 years, but I'm confident enough we break all petty low resistance points and eventually to a lesser extent 12k. When it corrects, I want to see a firm invalidation breaking 16k thereafter to end this bear market. It's way too early to tell and as of now, it seems unlikely for the short term, but with enough confidence and new and returning market participants (see the major interest at bittrex reopening registrations, what a great confirmation that was fa wise). If majority thinks bear market is ending in 2019, that means the bottom is in if I apply the relative price-time moves as to their claims. If so, they can say later on they were right :-)
I do not know if bottom is in for years to come, I will not make that claim. For the short term (next 6-8 weeks), yes I think it's in and was thinking that for few last weeks.

Of course, there is also a possibility that we're being played, but RR long term is of course to the long side, especially:
1) Once regulated, I can see a lot more money coming in;
2) Then the adoption phase begins where we can use the crypto in real life (I'm really looking forward for that, that would give an enormous boost);
3) Then the masses come in for the final big bubble worldwide, even in third world countries.
That's how I see it.

Everyone wants the bottom and top, but almost nobody will ever get it. Why not scaling in or out and have patience :-)

Cheers!

Not

I want to debunk this '14 fractal right now right here, now that everyone is talking about this on tv and twitter, which is completely ridiculous to compare it to current situation, as it doesn't match the criteria, since we've made:
#1 Lower Highs
#2 Much longer consolidation period AND most importantly, accumulating

Given all the circumstances prior, it was a matter of time before an explosive move up was to be made, which I've expected and is to be seen in chart prior when it happened.

Not

^ Correction, was in a rush (text in chart is correct still).
We've made:
#1 Higher Lows
#2 Much longer consolidation period AND most importantly, accumulating

Not

For those looking for more confirmations.

Not

Ok, somebody asked for targets, I normally don't wanna do this lower timeframe charting anymore, since it takes quite a lot of time and backtesting, whilst working on a project and enjoying leisure time to read more books, but decided to make one. I think it's pretty self-explanatory.

If superbullish and first minor support holds, you can expect a retest of 9.4k and can land anywhere between 9.4-9.5k, maybe an overshoot to 9.7k, otherwise I expect 9.1k.
Then correction going back to 7.5k (I don't expect this, although many will, a) that's why it probably won't happen and b) the better argument, is that btc is known to not make deeper corrections in stages like this, but too early to tell now) and when superbullish, 8.15-8.2k needs to hold.
In recap:
a) Super bullish: 8.3 -> 9.4-9.7
b) Normal trajectory: 7.8 -> 9.1
For very short term 8.5 before retracement.

I'm still expecting at least 11.15k for the short-medium term as a minimum with a moderate expectation of 12.4k. Nobody can know where if it goes to 16k or above and end the bear market at this time. It can consolidate for weeks, so be patience.

It's okay to buy with a tight stop or going for the bigger swing, but I can see a point in waiting for confirmations, but I'm not that guy. I rather take changes when I see key significant reversals and buy near bottom or sell near top for better returns vs higher risk, but to each their own.

Not

From a fundamental point of view, now that I think of this more, I don't think we will see new lows any time soon, because of mainstream big money wanting to get in after regulations (well, I assume you know about the security vs freedom philosophy, which can also be applied to business and money (more middle men is higher cost; effort is energy vs time (i.e. the phrase time cost money), so you want more security at the cost of a higher price, just poll any over-regulated branch).

Afaik, hedge funds, pension funds, etc. don't short, but go for the long haul. I'd be surprised if the billion us dollar hedge funds and institutional traders who're in already allow them to buy cheap coins and see their own interest tank. On the other hand, it's not July yet and bureaucrats are very slow... so anything can still happen.

Therefore, I'd not be surprised if we see a trading range between 11-16k or even 9-13k for the majority of the remaining year.

As far as I see it, a lower price floor means a redistribution of wealth, since hodlers and long term investors are probably buying on a regular basis to add more to their position vs weak hands who sell near the bottom and are too emotional to come back later to buy back in higher, which brings me to wallstreet's cycles of a market which I've posted in "why hodling is stupid" - Are we at the disbelief stage? Before I've just thought about this, I've observed and spoken of those who still think it's just a sucker's rally and/or a bulltrap who kept readding shorts at 7.7k, the same guys who were euphoric at the double top and went long... when I called it the "normal phase" in my quick scalping post, but only time will tell to confirm this one, but it doesn't really matter, it just something to add to my experience and a reminder why history keeps repeating itself.
onemint.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/image7.png

Anywho, for the long term, I suspect they're also looking at charts like these:
mk0valuewalkgcar7lmc.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/542496_268076218b514b46ab35b8fd53b3db37mv2.png
mk0valuewalkgcar7lmc.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/542496_21c7e28bcbd148f88422de32f193b865mv2.png

Just my thoughts, since there is nothing more to add at the moment.

Not

The normal trajectory is playing out fine at the moment. The super bullish path did not unfold, probably to be perceived as too unhealthy and/or hft's and some traders booking some profits with this same M pattern we've seen very often lately. It still can unfold on the lesser degree to complete the triangle structure within upcoming leg 5.

The problem with hft price action is, is that it's now in smaller scale accumulation zone where most think it's just consolidation for another leg down to target. I'm not surprised if we grind up before another pump to target 8.5 before finding support on the minor 8.325 to either complete pattern or make a larger time scale M pattern to 7.85/7.9k instead of finding support at 7.785/7.8.
That's one of the reasons why I don't bother to do these smaller timeframes anymore.

What I do like to see is that shorts are doubling down again at these price levels before going up again, at a ratio of 2k to 1.2k. Forcing your way vs hft's is just asking to get wiped out again for meager few digits % return, not so smart imho other than a quick scalp.

I don't mind which way it goes for the short term, since I'm looking to get in more with fresh money arrived.

Happy trading all.

Not

A new idea came flashed in front of me, what if this is a correction within a correction? I think this possibility is most plausible given the overall structure.

Targets in chart + Invalidation and confirmation levels for bear market. This can take many months to complete, but interesting nonetheless, at least for me.

That being said, there is not much to add at the moment again. The corrective structure for this latest impulsive one is of course unknown, but I really don't care to daytrade this since I lack time and interest for small gains. If there are big moves, I'll capitalize on that.

Not

There are some big misconceptions from the newer kind of people around here that think I'm bullish, but I'm not and I wasn't since early January. For short term, yes, for long term, definitely, and even to medium term to some extend, depending how many months this will take.

But like I've said before, the ending of the bear market needs to be confirmed/proven, and the chart I've posted before is just an idea that hasn't even unfolded yet.
Just because I've capitalized on spotting bullish reversal signs and bought in prior doesn't mean I'm not cognitive of the situation that a possibility still exists to continue the downtrend, although extremely unlikely for quite some time.
Read Fredric Bastiat's works to understand the psychology of most people, which brings forth misunderstandings.

For textbook confirmations, you're looking at a breakout of:
- 9.1k
- 11.8k
- 13k

And as a bonus, those were all 50% retracements to prior swing highs-low son the bigger structures. It seems those hft's are programmed really well, because for many years before end of '17, this never happened to this extreme and people used to trade with indicators like ichimoku and even naked chart scalping, while most used classical chart patterns and trendlines. The ew and wyckoff traders came later and populated tv more and more and if you do some backtesting and compare it to now, you constantly see results you don't expected years before.

And here is the issue, because to have an edge, you need to be ahead of others and/or have your own methodology, imho. So if your methodology brings 80% winning trades, use it and stop caring what others think of your style. You don't owe them anything.

Not

There is also a big difference in the kind of people in crypto and I want to share it with you, because I think it's important.
Most of the early people were libertarian minded people and saw and still see the potential in bitcoin and keep adding to their bags (primarily not financial wise, but as a means to bring and implement chance, the investment opportunities came later - because lets be honest, anybody in here years before we never knew it would be this big when it was just a few dollars and that it would go to 20k in just several years, that's just a welcome bonus), whilst the majority came in late '17 and truly are here for the money only and don't care about the tech or philosophy and you know I'm right.

The argument can be made it was cheap back then, but that is hindsight and thus invalid, because if you bought it back then and lost 80-90% you'd not speak like this and most of the people didn't care as much as the newer people do now and that is probably WHY this bubble collapsed at the price near 20k instead of much lower.

You know why? Because the market makers probably know you better than you know yourself and know that that majority (latecomers) care ONLY about money, so they have lured you in with the pump, bullish news everywhere, to then dump and they know human nature being stunned/denial/disbelief they still can dump for the high prices on the rebound, while it truly was your last chance to get out and this is EXACTLY the time a lot of new people came in and bought "the dip". The worst thing is, most are psychological, emotionally and even financially destroyed, but on the other hand, this is a good life lesson, but probably are much worse off than those in '11 and '14, because they care only about money that they took money they could not afford to lose.

There are fundamental different school of thoughts between the two kinds of people as you can already read, those who think it's worth nothing (but then why do you hodl other than trade) while the others think it's invaluable and will go up (the early guys, who see potential and newer entrepreneurial type of people besides libertarians). And this goes back to the Austrian vs Keynesian economics, the latter which we're indoctrinated with since early age and most didn't have the privilege to even study let alone hear about Austrian economics.

Which brings me to what "value" is. If you're an Austrian or libertarian/classical liberal, you'd know it's subjective and is determined by the market.
Quote (Principles of Economics):
"The subjective theory of value is a theory of value which advances the idea that the value of a good is not determined by any inherent property of the good, nor by the amount of labor necessary to produce the good, but instead value is determined by the importance an acting individual places on a good for the achievement of his desired ends."

To understand this and act in truth, you probably want to read more Mises instead of Marx, if you don't want to end up as a poor man in both spirit and wealth, to live a prosperous and free live, to then bring that forth to others so all can win to bring man out of bondage and suffering.

And this is important to know, because you'd understand why bitcoin never stayed in the 2 digits range, why shorting herballife was not a good idea, even when you're right and why people went in to bitconnect, knowing full well it was a ponzi scheme, but profited before the collapse. You can spot opportunities not only in trading, but also in real life and see problems early on while most cannot. Maybe those are the fruits of the ethical and truthful ways of living, who knows.

Not

Although logarithmic regression points to 3 digits currently, it was 2 digits in 2014 and not even 1 digit in 2011. Well, it never came even close to its logarithmic mean. Of course, time is a requirement in the function, but this is probably the culprit why it's not a good measurement instrument, although very interesting nonetheless.

So in recap, 9.1k is critical to break and 7.55k to hold, then you probably want to up your stop loss when we reach 11.5k and the same goes for 12.8k. For many, breaking 13k would mean bear is over, as for me, it's 17k with the first sign at 14k to smash down that corrective idea. It can take months, if not for the rest of the year, so be patience.

Have a wonderful week.

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Clarification about my bullishness, I really should say for this upcoming bullrun and long term, absolutely. I love to see crypto, bitcoin and blockchain shine, who doesn't (other than those that are short ;)) :-)

You'd know when targets are being met and this needs to come either with volume in a short period of time or a long accumulation time, so the words short and medium term are a bit awfully placed when timing is the most improbable thing to predict, if not close to impossible :-)

Hope this cleared things up.

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Long term picture (it looks like ab pattern is complete, so guestimate for C would be 14.4k/15.8k as it's almost same structure as abc from the top to 6k, but in reverse).

From an overall perspective, the dotted lines represent blocks, with the lower white ones that are a potential for future setup.

Some people think it's in a triangle count, could be, I went with the correction within correction setup for a regular flat for the larger structures, because the triangle count is imho too obvious. Fibs lined up with other instruments, hence confluence zones, which makes me inclined with my own idea.

Note, this is long term and you need to be patience as it can take the majority of the year. A firm break of 17k is still required.

Will update when we reach targets or when I see key reversal signals. I'm very confident for weeks that we break 10k, it's just a matter of time. ~13k gets trickier, that's why you should raise stops after we go past 11k to preserve profits and buy back in if it there is a structure for more upside, in my opinion.

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I see a few confluences at the 10.28 and 12.25 with a fractal analog that resembles hft play, but this micro structure today is skewed, since it's I suspect done by whales using margin and the volume does not match that of hft, at all. That play is portrayed in pink and is an alternative path that creates an inverted h&s to 10.28.

Short term tps:
9.1 + 9.4-9.6
Med term tps:
10.25 + 12.2 (latter with rising SL)
Long term tps:
12.2 + 14.3 (with a max of 16), cautious as C can be length of A, which is 12.2...

After that is observation and buyback when upside structure is confirmed with SL at those levels (you'll notice hft patterns with huge spikes and volume, without any positions being used from datamish, creating M or W patterns and discern this with whaleplay by checking volume/unit of time, especially using a tick analyzer + datafeed from finex to confirm), which coincides with the higher formations in block 1 and is critical to break 17 and stay above there for a good amount of time before calling anything but over.

Will be last update for a while, since I go abroad soon, but will check from time to time through homevpn.

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Quick update. I'm back and what a nice few days guys! Not only did I had a nice time with passed meeting with some fellow friends and investors, but also very good to see crypto is back in town :)
I couldn't write in chat or post for some reason on tv via vpn, but only 2 days have gone by, so no biggie.

I took a bit of profit at the exact top though, to reload on the next wave. Still hold majority for the swing. Also sold gold before the dump and told a friend here in comments days ago prior to it that I'm bearish gold, so that turned out to be winner as well and that goes in to crypto, a little bit of silver and maybe a tiny bit of uranium contracts. Bought a lot of exact bottoms and sold at tops, proved it to some friends here on tv with screenshots, so they can verify I'm not talking out of my a$$.

My gut feeling from a week ago + notation in chart of short squeeze #2 turned to be true as well and lots of inexperienced traders got rekt again in doubling down in their shorts, nothing new to me when I've warned them not to short and they had enough time to close, but despite they keep being stubborn and not learning, so be it. How does your portfolio look like by taking advice from a-rated and new traders? I've doubled my account in less than a week and took a bit of profit for the reload much higher.

It's possible that we go down a bit for the last wave to 9.1 or start a minor correction before going to target 1. I think correction, so you might take a little bit of profit for the next run up.

The trajectory still stands and going as planned. I consider TP1 to be complete.

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Will answer questions tomorrow, my mailbox and pmbox is pretty full. Good night / happy trading!

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Quick update, be careful right now.
Will go back to you tomorrow, didn't had time with such a beautiful sunny day :-)

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It's possible they gonna play the triangle and many will wait to buy at the bottom triangle, but it won't happen IF this scenario plays out, but above at 7.7k so they miss out, hence I'd scale in around 8.1k - 7.7k. Measured pattern move depends where we break out, height = ~$700.

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It's possible that a last pump (minor bulltrap) will finish at 9.32k with a max of 9.52k, I cannot see it go further without the algos selling off sharp. Need fresh money in on the pullback if we want to go higher, unless they count that people have amnesia what happened the last months, which is possible. I rather think we go down before we go up.

Things to keep an eye on is the daily and more importantly weekly close... and it's close to make a doji on there when we retrace to even the most bullish target. Also, tomorrow london stock opening and futures expiring this week (in case that latter theory holds true, which seems plausible, but who knows).

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I've looked at 3m up till weekly chart, these are the most likely two scenarios in my opinion (cyan + pink), dotted arrows unlikely.

What goes up, must come down, so it's a matter of time when there are no more new buyers, so the next wave of new buyers can load up and whales can reload for the the pump.

I would not short the breakout, can be the next trap (see cyan scenario). Either short the top or wait for a long opportunity, just my thoughts.

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I've looked back in level 2 mp in bigger detail and there is bigger potential to break to the upside, rather than down. The price suppression is not even close as strong as few weeks ago at 9.1k, while buying pressure is very high.

This is contrary to TA. Imho, other than scalping, it's a no trade zone.

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^ I've finetuned my code to filter out noise (spoofing and bot trading as much as possible). Sell pressure starts from 9.5k upwards, while buy pressure starts from 8.05k, just to give you the full info and this coincides with TA, after all.

I expect 9.1k algo selling though, short term bearish setup for today, I still expect down to targets. Last target at 8.05k would be a nice place to long on top of reloading with spots at a higher price at first target.

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We're now close to the apex. Micro triangle leg E has finished.
Reload at 8.45k for 9.4k if this scenario finds bottom at 8.45k.

Keep in mind that this entire structure up can be part of leg 1, so it's possible to see 11k+ in next rally.

Not

10 sec + 1 min chart points to 9.362 next impulse, maybe good target to start shorting there up to 9.5k with sl 9.7k. +1.5k longs vs -0.5k shorts.

Still risky, since liquidation is the name of the game these days. That's what happens when you don't properly correct, not even the most bullish pullback, you run out of money at some point. Would definitely not buy here, other than having a direct line to a reliable exchange... since bitmex logged me out again at a critical moment and some other exchanges have suddenly huge lag + errors...

I come back in a few weeks in my crypto scam when you might want to cash out a portion before a potential big storm is coming. The data rates are ridiculous, not even close to centralized exchanges, so no, decentralized exchanges will not fix the speed issues, but guaranteed lower profits or even losses when outages or lag in a scalp at the 1 second to 1 minute chart or just go out of the air for 2 hours when you're in a short position, then exchange goes back up and alt already pumped way above where you shorted the top and your sl didn't execute, totally unacceptable (so hint to what will be spoken of in an update at crypto scam post).

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9.44k. Confluence zone 2x fib (one larger tf already established few days ago + 1 min chart) + measured move triangle breakout.

For the scalpers amongst us.

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NOTE: Entering a short trade is for scalping ONLY. The targets in the roadmap I've posted earlier for the swingtrade are still intact. Failure to set stops, flip or close too late can cost you a lot of money, so if you like me and like to use market orders at the click of your finger when you scalp (which I do now for those insane and easy gains for a small portion of my equity), sitting behind a monitor is required.

Something doesn't feel right again with btc as the run up from 6k to 11.8k without any correction to at least 8.8k prior and the run from 9.35 to 11.7k, meaning most is artificial and the possibility increases that in the near future dumps are imminent again, maybe in a few months. It's best to wait for alts to correct or breakout when they didn't pumped too much yet and buy in for bigger profit potential to catch up vs the meager gains in btc, that is, if you're not in yet. Just my opinion.

Mp level 2 still has same targets of what I've posted 2 days ago (22 april), which coincides with ta. It's already way overextended, whilst I expect this for the alts who got a big haircut, I do not expect this for btc, as relatively speaking, it's not even close in sharpness and decline.

The retest at 9.4k is close to about to happen, which I've expected for quite some time. If it does break 9.6k (algo selling) it can go to 10.4k before any correction. If you want to scalp, at this moment, I'd not short below 9.6 and set sl flip at 9.7 with long sl 9.35. I wouldn't buy here for a swing, other than scalping a potential setup.

I normally don't post those scalps anymore, but since I'm in a quick scalp myself, why not. Do note: My scalps generally do not last more than 20 minutes, at most a few hours and I prefer not more than 10 minutes.

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Scalp target hit. Wait which path is follows, abc mini correction is done, but still can go to 9.050k, good entry for a long position.
Expected 9.4k retest for weeks completed. Road to TP2 11.15k is in sight for coming weeks.

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Not once did we had a healthy correction, while a lot of people are waiting to buy in, which happened before from around 8k to 11.8k and 9.35 to 11.7k, which makes me think it's the same guys manipulating the show with their algo bots facilitated by some whales using long and short positions that close thousands at a time, while algos are buying all day long. See my ethbtc chart at binance in my crypto scam post if that looks natural to you... The greed is insane.

So, now lets critically think here for a moment.
Who keeps buying high (while the selloffs are way larger in size, yet price keeps pumping back up)?
Who keeps buying all day every day even during weekends when joe smoe couldn't even wire his fiat back to the exchange to buy?
Why suddenly most bears are suddenly becoming bullish?
Why is there a lot of positive news about bitcoin in the media everywhere in the world at the same time?
Why are the (old) grandiose price pedictions being rebroadcasted?

It's pretty rhetorical, but they want joe smoe to get back in, to get his money of course. That's why they broadcasted a lot of xrp commercials and interviews on msm not only in the US when the price was at $3... same when the banks broadcasted for the first time ever on tv with a young target audience to invest in the stockmarket before it tanked...

With what we know what has happened, the higher we go without correction, the bigger the guarantee it will fall and then we people buy in thinking to buy a dip or in a correction, it most likely will go down again.

Maybe there is some truth in the conspiracy theory regarding cboe and cme futures, we will see what happens next weekend. Personally, as I've said before, I think it's bullish until end May to June, but take in consideration a mt. gox will most likely happen again on a bigger scale with more actors involved. You can get in, but you can't get out. The price doesn't need to be below 3k for "them" to take over.

Now that I think of this more and more with a strong intuition and contrary lifestyle to most, it's not the time to buy, but to sell.

I'm going to sell a large portion of my spots and positions soon and keep the rest open, you never know what presents they give you. I certainly would not buy here, but will wait for a considerable pullback to 7.5-8.5k. If not, I will only scalp it unless price consolidates above 10.6k or break 12k and stays there for a while.
The risk is getting higher, especially with manipulation. So I most likely will play the alt market for better returns with less risk if this will be the case.

I expect a reversal around 9.8k, but it again can happen it keeps grinding up.

Currently not in a trade, but will patiently wait for an opportunity. Caution is advised, since a lot of shorts are liquidated, the favor will be returned eventually. This is not healthy, other than to dump at the highest price possible before July regulations when they exit and it seems they're in a hurry...

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For scalpers. This can be the local bottom, mini correction finished, but no idea if they gonna follow through with the bigger correction or do that at 9.8 or even 10.2k.

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Can be 3-5 wave down extension 8.86k, then I'd watch closely if not finish bigger correction to 8.5 if no reversal.

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Risky to scalp this. Descending wedge forming, BUT, 2k longs added while price keeps going down, which isn't a good sign. Talking about greedy whales before and returning the favor to keep things in balance... Watch closely today.

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Nearing our first buy zone, be patient. There is a good possibility it will go to second buy zone. There is a delta of $200 to gdax at previous selloff and it overshot the trendline, funny moment. Don't fomo.

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Update. IF triple bottom on the 2H will form AND hold, it's good to partially buy spot. Triple bottom > double bottom, any day. Can go to 9.4 for a scalp up to 9.7. If 9.4 then likely C, else if 9.7 then something is wrong and a short can be opened and at double top + flip at $100 above breakout.

I rather wait for 8.345k to start scaling in for the bigger run. Lots of confluence in this area, support should be strong.

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Got in too late, was awol from pc. Cover some of position at 9.4 if you're long.

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I can see it going to 11.2 (target 2 11.15k) if we break double top. Should be doable with foolish bottom shorters again, so that will be fuel and a good place to readd up to 9.4k and some cash at the ready to buy the breakout of 9.8k.

It's unknown if this is still in correction or not. Bottom shorters betting it will, but they do not know and are now underwater, again. Trade at your own risk.

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^ Correction: 10.2

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I'd be careful trading or even scalping this at this point for both ways. Spoofy is active again and plays both sides of the order books. We know he has 8k btc and so far only put 2k flashing buy wall, so he got 6k left (pump/dump).

I've closed my long positions and have some spot left. My core positions are still open for the bigger swing trade unless there are some bigger reversal signals given.

Pivot vwap is at 8.8k, so what goes up must come down.

Possible targets long:
9.4k, 9.7 and 10.2 (unlikely)
Possible targets short:
8.8k, 8.35k, 8k
Reversal:
< 7.8k (intra day)
< 7.5k (weekly)

Daily looks bullish.
Weekly needs to maintain at least 9.5k, otherwise it's getting close to a doji or even shooting star.
The monthly looks decent, but a break of the inside bar at 11.8k is still required.

I think greedy whales messed up by not giving many people the chance to buy in at the pullback and corrections prior, so I cannot see us going past 13k, sorry guys. Maybe target 2 at 11.15k will be hit and maybe a retest at 11.7k. It still can happen if people en masse will buy the correction so whales have money left to pump it up or it's tight range trading until the rest of the year before it's matter of time before shtf again.

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Bigger picture, be patience.

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Hope you had a nice day folks. It's possible that the 8.9 will be a local bottom to play out the weekly and monthly candle. In that case, it can go to 9.75-9.8k as of now and possibly 10.2 as noted before. Short term 9.4k. People, including myself, are waiting for 8-8.4k, which may not come. It's not obvious which way it can go, only spoofy and the mm can decide that. If we go higher, that most likely means more money from retail investors and deep pockets coming in soon, as they see bullish weekly and monthly close, which is what they I assume want, so I give the bias to the bullish side and to the minor correction. Be careful, I would not scalp this at the moment, maybe add a bit to your swing trade if you think it will go higher, but that's a gamble now, well no risk, no reward.

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Structure looks completed. Expected next targets finalized.

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So Spoofy was busy again this morning. He got filled now. You want to punish this manipulator to wipe his karma clean? Then dump it. It can happen most likely happen Monday anywho.

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^ Huge manipulation atm, they wiped the order book clean with the wicks, ~1/4 volume but relative price ~2x, that's ~8x increase per price/volume. I definitely would not buy here now, because every time this has happened, we dumped very hard (low volume up, big dumps). Selling off more of my position soon. Buying cheap after dump.

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^ My argument is that I can see level 2 market depth. Spoofy is filled, there is no more real support until 8.55k with lots at 8-8.2k. Sell side went right back in the books at a higher rate and size. Buy power is severely diminished. They can play this day and maybe sunday, but monday will most likely be drop or even before sunday close. Favoring the short side for a scalp.

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Quick update, I'm in a hurry.

Sold all my core positions, all in fiat now. There are multiple bearish signals and the delusions are strong with lots of manipulation by some bigger boys and (exchange) algo's making the same patterns over and over again, even creating perfect ladders up (like the one I've posted on ethbtc) and almost nobody selling and feeling comfortable to hodl... while tiny 0.0001 orders can pump price in alt space with 1%, the price/volume relation is 12x the premium. Why? Because people are extremely greedy. You can bet when it comes down, it comes down hard and sharp, especially alts. I'm considering to remove all my buy orders and set low ball 6.5-7.5k orders. The fakery is extreme and most people cannot even see it and already forgot the last months. The volume is simply not there, the buying power is severely diminished and most of my friends are either waiting for 3k or have just sold when they bought around the bottom.

Good luck. You can bet if it will go to double top or a few hundred more points, but not worth it imho. Can also crash down 2k to 3k points.

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Great question in comment section why I think 8.2-8.35 won't hold support.
This ONLY counts when we do not correct to 8.45k in coming days. If this support holds/consolidates (making higher lows or spring test)/bounce, it's safe to buy here for a scalp. I usually don't trade wave 5, because it's close to a structural correction, which is deeper and sharper.

In other words, when we only go higher and don't correct healthy, you can place bets the dump will be harder and sharper, because the entire structure needs to be taken in to consideration with levels lower than [this] wave 4.

This has happened many times during this and previous bear markets. Instead of 38.2%, it goes straight to 50% and even 61.8% and you then can be lucky to sell the 38.2% when that becomes the top to breakeven.

The problem then becomes that most then becomes bearish and reinforces the dump, when the mm just buys it up (i.e. selling the bottom). I see many people making mistakes to trade leg B (aka dead cat bounce) or even wave 5 midway (buying near top).

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I've been saying this for last few days and turns out this scenario is coming to fruition very soon. Whales, sharks and spoofy and joe smoe are extremely greedy and playing on psychology of the herd. If it doesn't break double top today with VOLUME or make doji on weekly, I go short bigger on my scalps. There is no more need to buy at 8-8.45k, because when this comes crashing it will go down hard. That's what happens when whales keeps high artificial price with 12x the premium per same prior volume. Same for alts, they all go down hard, that's what I expect. Good luck hodlers, at least spoofy will get what he deserves, but he probably sold a good portion of his stack already to fomo'ers and dump as well to breakeven.

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Another idea, another possibility, playing the triangle with newly formed resistance trendline, which is the more bearish-neutral approach.

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Already dumped my stack yesterday at 9.5k (see chart 29 april).

Now is short (this price right now, 9.35k up to double top 9.8k - SL 10.5k | or flip on breakout only for short at the double top, but won't happen before making newer low):
TP1 = 8.45
TP2 = 8.2

Long at 8-8.2k for the bounce. Then keep eye open if not drop more or resume continuation. Triangle can be played which means 6.5-7.5k or continuation to double top.
TP1 = 9.7k
TP2 = 11.15k

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The longer we consolidate here, the bigger the fall. At this point, I would not set limit close on shorts, but keep them open. There is a medium to high possibility that we get huge dumps soon to at least 7.5k. Scalpers can play the bounce at 8k to 8.4k if this scenario plays out.

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Finalized short targets:
Cover 1/3 @ 8.45k
Cover 1/3 @ 8.125k
1/3 open SL 8.9k once break < 8.6k (potential candidate cover @ 7.6k)

Scalp bounce play:
Spot buy @ 8.001k
Spot buy @ 7.545k

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As expected, the tech stock index SPY tanked today (Monday), while btc still is in a suckers rally where top rated authors making again the wrong calls (thank you for the references to their charts in pm, you know who you're :-)). Great idea to buy the top and short the bottom, really nice advice.

Mm charting nice triangles all over the place, but when you have sharp eye, you can clearly see structure on a naked chart, no matter what noise you create on chart and it says going down for days now which are reinforced by fundamentals and understanding of market participants, buying power and psychology. I'm starting to wonder if they deceive their followers on purpose or they are truly bad traders, who knows, it's not my business.

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Chart update

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Funny how desperate some people are, even at Kraken putting tiny 25 btc walls in the middle of the fall catching knives and now are nicely underwater. Reminds me of the guy who played with 250 btc orders (yes single orders at an illiquid exchange) during the fall to 6k and quickly bought it back at premium because of slippage and illiquid orderbook when the price reversed in sheer panic. He came out 120btc a week later, net loss 80btc out of 200 and never saw him again. I've said this before many times. Luck != intelligence or skill. If you wanna play with emotions, better go play at the casino. Maybe he will think twice if this was the top for the rest of the year, especially when we go to 3.3k first before heading back for his breakeven point ;-)

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Should go more down, they might play triangle again for next 12-20 hours... but is rejected by diagonal triple top, which is much strong than double top.

I can see traps for both sides now, so be careful if you wanna rush to enter short... wait for bounce or break of the bigger green channel we sit on. Like I've said before, I do NOT trade breakouts (with a few rare exceptions). I trade reversals, so I usually get tops and bottoms, but it's okay not to do this, because it's much higher risk, but also better reward.

It's possible comes back to ~9.2 to ~9.3, so can reload if you took profit or enter, but can also break upside, but I don't think so, this correction is not finished. If we go higher without finishing correction, you know what it will look like after we hit double top like we did 11.7k.

Then what's next? Well, we won't get surprised again, do we? I have 2 scenario's, bullish and bear-neutral. In any scenario, 7.55k should be bounce area, but also to a lesser degree 8.001k exactly. Normal retracement 8.125k. So now you have targets and can see reversal if it comes back and break. In that case, it's highly likely it's bearish [red] abc, so be careful. If bullish continuation, then invalidation is 8.9k, so if you have still have some shorts open, you need to set SL there if you think we go down.

Personally, I'm neutral which way we go when we hit target. Looks like 9.35k retracement like last time. I'm prepared for both.

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Another possibility is that 9k is now resistance, when we look at bigger picture, the 50% fib becomes now an algo resistance point, which is exactly 9k. In that case, it doesn't look good. I give bulls the benefit of the doubt to bounce a few hundred or give up fighting a fight they cannot win, since many people including me ain't buying high and henceforth go to targets. Good night all, happy trading and good game! :-)

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Congrats to all who were/are short stocks, gold and btc, good game! Reload before and of May, preferably on the bounce (2-3 weeks).

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Finalized chart for last leg down + targets.
Bulls must uphold 8.4k daily close and at minimum 8.2k.

Bullish long zone (close shorts, keep 1/3 open SL 8.9):
8.2-8.5k (TP 10.25k + 10.975k)
Neutral zone:
8k (1/2 bunny bounce hops)
Bearish zone:
7.6k (bunny bounce 2 hops higher high than 8k with bulltrap)

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As expected and what I've wrote 21 hours ago... they're going to play today the triangle and voilá, there you have it. Last sucker's rally on the lower high to buy in and get dumped upon. It's POSSIBLE that it's going to break to the upside of course, but who're you fooling?
1) Prolonged correction, not even touched the very rare truncated C leg.
2) Longs are closing and know that summer is almost here.
3) It's proven no new money is coming in and markets are severely slowing down, so a good pump means smart traders gonna sell, especially those that are underwater for months, do you think whales are that stupid?
4) I don't care about [bullish/bearish] news, we had bullish news in the bear market of '14 as well with Paypal, yet price kept tanking for months.

A tip for new cryptotraders: Do not use positions for swing trades this summer, except scalping where you can take a good amount of leverage (like bitmex), but first understand the risk associated with that or you'll be stuck with rollover fees that exceed your profit making it net null and void.

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Another day, another triangle... within the bigger triangle.
I've got a suspicion they're stalling time to pump one more time on "bullish" fakenews before a dump or entering in a slow bear market, bear market ETA: < July up to < September. BUT, I expect truncated wave 5 (that's why I don't long on wave 4 as I've said before, because when is reversing, say goodbye to bounce to breakeven).

Next target 9.25k (max). Confluence zone is 8.45k. Median price/volume/period 8k. Probability breakout upside < 20%, RR long < 3x vs short, hence short until at least 8.5k.

For Euro friends (keep in mind eurusd is in a pullback, so although this hit the upper triangle trendline, it's not for usd; See baseline green+red in background)

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Short term, still going as planned.

Bigger picture, let's see which path it follows in coming quarter.

Not

Confluence at 8.15k zone now as well, HS pattern almost completed forming. Pulling out my bids at 8.45k now (and putting spots at 8-8.2k with longs at 6.5 to 7.5). Shorts cover 1/3 there + 1/3 8.15k + 1/3 open (SL 8.9 once break 8.7).

Again, the longer the consolidation, the bigger the move [down, again]. Almost all alts are for the last few days severely overpriced right now with low volume only up, up, up. Expecting some huge dumps there soon and a big thank you from the whales who beat retail trader/investor once more, like in all of history. We want to buy low, sell high, or buy high, sell higher and don't get stuck with bags.

Not

So I did some more analysis on buys vs sells over the last 5 months and last weeks. There still is more money going out than in, while low volume pushes price up 12x of what average price/volume does in alt space top 10, with some over a whopping 80x overvaluation, but btc is no exception. Every time this happens, somebody is going to carry bags at the top and dumps were always sharp, even in bull and neutral markets. As long as exchanges carry most of the supply, so big boys can trade both sides, reinforced with margin, sleeping in coin in a bear market is not a wise thing to do, no matter this bullrun, just a reminder and the answer why sharks get richer.

You don't have to believe me, everybody whose trading for a good amount of times knows this in summertimes (and sometimes May dumps) and its all in the charts anyway to verify, doesn't matter which market you look at.

Now that the dollar is very strong vs other currencies and stocks and precious metals market are tanking, I'd be very, very careful to have any long position still open in this correction (which you shouldn't anyway, haven't people this figured out yet? It's pure gambling when the odds are to the shortside), considering all the arguments given herein, because it's not known where we stop, either at C for wave 5 or ABC continuing downtrend.

Signs of dollar strength vs all other currencies forecast economic trouble on the horizon in my experience and the first thing that people take their money out when they need it, is high speculative asset classes, like crypto. This is contrary to what all those youngsters with no financial background claim it to be (the same guys who said wallstreet coming in at January when price was 14-16k and that it's just a minor Chinese holiday selloff, complete bogus, hope you didn't listened to their advice and you shouldn't take my views either as advice, it's just my personal opinion/experiences everything I say and write).

Not

Started on a new chart naked. Immediately saw the diamond reversal pattern at the bottom and now at the top, which went passed by me all this time and I haven't seen anyone spoken of this. Hope you have cash ready to buy some wicks from the sheer panic which might unfold, the longer we consolidate, the bigger the move. I expect at least 8.45k -> 8.2 -> 7.85k for maximum pain with long wicks. I've spoken about that everyone is way too comfortable and alts skyrocketing, the big boys are going to make some money soon I expect and not give the herd free money at their cost, while almost everybody is über bullish... Time to put things in to balance again (balance is at 8k still).

Not

^ Pattern is invalid if we break and close above swing high top.

Not

Nice manipulation in the markets again. Algo's from the big boys doing their jobs again destroying whales and little fish. Buying the lows within stealth with their darkpools and painting charts all day every day.

I expect huge dump soon now that a lot of fomo and ta only traders bought the breakout again. Too many people comfortable and bullish, but in reality no new money coming in. Everything overpriced price per volume and some day all those btc bought at the lows come back in the market.

Look at artificial ethbtc pump.

Matter of time before everything dumps hard, then slow bleeding bear market. Now I'm convinced we will not see 11.8k, because:
a) We never finished corrective structure, but keep hanging within the range (still are)
b) Consolidated way too long in correction with algo pnd's;
c) No serious new money coming in (only from little fomo and breakout traders);
d) The longer it takes, the bigger the dump, since time is not in favor of bulls (summer almost here, people taking cash out stocks and crypto again, like always)

I'd have given the favor for breaking 12k if we respected the bullish time/trendline after at least a 38.2% correction, which is still mild, but we didn't (see gann fan or hand drawn trendlines). That being said, I see a coming bulltrap and lots of tears soon.
There was a lot of money in 8k range waiting to buy and take over, including me, but now I've got second thoughts and removed my buy orders in favor for shorts. I will scalp the bounces though, because it seems its easy money taking away from those dirty algos, as they are as smart as the programmer programmed it to be.

The investors I spoke with in meeting few weeks ago, like I've mentioned here, they will buy 3k, only few bought 6.5k and already sold. Good luck to bagholders.

So that's what I'm going to do. Scalping and taking money away from dirty bots. Bots are destroying entire crypto space, they're active in alts now as well (ethbtc and xrpbtc), SAME patterns as btcusd, with price suppression for months, then accumulate at bottom and fake pumps with almost no volume in PERFECT patterns. This is not humans guys. I know some whales and fish are rekt, I've said this for months, it's much bigger guys, somebody who can control all exchanges same time and got over $500 million usd at minimum.

Who are it? I don't know, but I got gut feeling it's a) the exchanges itself, b) banks and c) big institutional traders (in behalf of a+b => insider trading).

Think about it, how is it possible that they pump for example xrp before comes on MSM like CNBC and then worldwide same time promote crypto and xrp, giving the common man the illusion to be billionaires when xrp was $3? This is much bigger than whales, I always thought this, but it's getting more and more confirmed with their actions in the market/charts.

Not

Got some questions, which exchanges and where I trade, I've no clue, this is just what I think. I saw it being rampant after Binance came on the scene with a ton of artificial bot play, this is no accusation, but still an open thought.

I trade on these exchanges (best and safest in my opinion):
- Bitfinex
- Kraken
- Bittrex
- Bitmex

Not

This bs is getting old

Thanks vlad for pointing out this algo pattern to me!

Not

Stocks, precious metals market and every currency against usd tanking, so my shorts paid off well there. Crypto artificially being held up. I'm expecting huge dumps soon continuing the bear market breaking 6k in following months. I'd be careful being optimistic and carrying bags.

I'm 3% short of my equity and hold 97% cash, but I go short more and more we go higher and leave 1/3 open and 2/3 scalping. I expect a minor bounce around 8k, then 6.5k then breakdown to 4.8k for next bounce.

Good luck.

Not

I say this one more time and I won't repeat it and don't wanna tell you "I told you so". It's extremely high risk to buy near top, rather than short it. When you're proven to be incorrect with your long, you have no more opportunity to breakeven in a bounce vs shorting here. For all arguments before given, I see this little reactive bullrun is over.

Time to get back to reality.

Price will always return to the mean and this is a 1 year price per volume (pv) chart that always has come true, in any market. The last mean pv is 3.2k and the log regression is $618. I expect ~84% correction from ATH (3.3k'ish target to be met).

Be my guest to hodl at 9.2k, that is 65% portfolio loss to target where I will buy back in.

The reason why I post this is to protect your capital vs predators who can strike at any moment and to be PREPARED in advanced, since afaik, almost nobody else posts about these views, warnings and preparations on tv before they manifest in front of your eyes, because most traders are like herd as well, they go with the flow/trend, thus will also fall when disasters happen.

You might say, but it's in your best interest to post bearish charts and you're right, but I only have 3% of my capital at stake which I can flip to a long to play the scalp, but I will not and only short from here on. I wouldn't post bullish charts only when I'm short, that would be unethical and to be fair, I've posted both scenario's (even a neutral 3rd path) in my charts + given the targets.

Good luck scalping (I wouldn't swing trade now).

ETA: June to Q4

Not

Nice algo pump with chasers and top rated recommending to buy. If you okay with holding bags near the top for almost the rest of the year at minimum, be my guest. 60 days cycle has ended since the 6k bottom.

From a friend of mine

Big pump, but lack in volume compared to the organic pump. Everything fits together with the algo patterns that setup for a big dump any moment now. No financial advice, just sharing the obvious.

Not

Interesting comment from darnok and I think he's right. Postponed dump due to bitmex up contracts at bitmex expiring soon, hence they're in such a hurry to pump it. I will short more on each nice green pump and I won't buy anything and removed all my buy orders at 7.8-8.4k.

I'm still over 5000% margin level, so I can sit it out even when btc hits a million usd. Everything is tanking but crypto is pumping on low volume, sure.

Not

It's much better to short alts now as well, they are hugely overvalued. Only up on no volume. Eth is a good candidate:
Big short around $910, starting with tiny ones at $815, TP = $250.

Make sure you have enough margin level/hedge. I think I let 50% of my short position ride throughout the summer and the others I close near the bottom.

Not

Wow, I just checked the longs vs shorts, they are increasing in huge numbers, this is wonderful for the bears/rational traders/investors (thanks for the headsup trekkie :-)) datamish.com
+5k longs while shorts are reset. I think it's now time for a long liquidation.

I originally had my buys at 8.2k, but I've pulled all away in my update 5h ago. I'm still going to take profit 50% of my shorts at 8.2k and reshort on the bounces if I see no reversal for a potential 2nd bullrun (maybe 11.15k where I had tp2 awhile ago), which I'm not seeing for last week, at all. What I see is more money going out and is confirmed by some friends who are already cashing out (no small money) and timeflow, price action, SL hunting and the rush to secure their bitmex futures expiration btc settlement. The other 50% I keep open.

Not

Place your bets. 3 paths (green = bullish, blue = neutral, red = bearish).
Median PV/monthly = 8k, PV/yearly 3.2k.
Green = 2.4%/6%/14.6%
Blue = 11.5%/14.3%
Red = 20.7%/28.7%

Not

Imho, we're in lesser degree Wyckoff distribution phase.
Expected direction 8.2k, test 8k PV, test lower support 7.8k (overshoot).

Not

I forgot to put the bearish TP3 as I did for bullish TP3 (in both higher degree accumulation/distribution zones).

Green = 2.4%/6%/14.6%
Blue = 11.5%/14.3%
Red = 20.7%/28.7%/55.4%

Not

Fomo dying out, money drying up, everything tanking, crypto going up on almost non existant volume = greedy exuberant bulls => big dumps SoonTM.

Taking profit 50% on bounce then reload shorts, keep shorting alts and btcusd and btceur when eur bounces vs usd (eurusd). 50% open until ~Augustus target 3.3k. Set spot buys 2.8-3.3k (longs 2.4-2.8) and hodl until December then take profit. Enjoy summer :-)

Not

Cold analysis + cycles

Not

When we tank, make sure you grab popcorn and listen to this:
youtube.com/watch?v=079RCUtk8s4

Not

Comparing BTC vs USD index, Bitcoin still in bubble.

Next support in medium term = -65.8%
BTC current price = 9.47k * (100%-65.8%) = $3238.74
Exact match with the VP @ 3.2k.

Not

Bigger picture, I need to study this more, correlations are strong, but doesn't mean causation, yet, this is proof crypto is still grossly overvalued to usd index and this is no denying it. The breakout happened at 10 April 2017 and topped at exactly 01 January 2018.

Current btcusd price = $9696
S1 = -65.73% = $3322.82 (perfect match yearly VP (and bitcoin always comes back to this yearly average, no exception))
S2 = -84.98% = $1456.34
S3 = -94.33% = $549.76

Anything can happen of course, but from a rational point of view, I feel more comfortable to keep 50% of my shorts open when I'm on vacation this summer.

Not

Can close 50% shorts at 8.5, then reload on the bounce, but first let structure form, it's too early to tell how high bounce back. I'm fairly sure dump is soon to destroy longs at the top (bunch of gamblers) for free money for mm. If you're in a bad position for shorts, you can close all and reload.

The median monthly is 8k, so around this place can buy with spot to scalp, but NOT for swingtrade, as risk is too high at this price, because I expect we go to 6.5-7.5k very soon. Everything is overvalued atm, so the bias is so the shortside.

Long term is making newer low to target 3.3k area, eta summer time. Bitcoin always retrace to average PV which is 3.2k, no exceptions and vs usd index, it's very much in bubble and not a good investment to hodl, at all, better buy us dollars...

Short term direction. Can also be another fakeout to 10.2k, so add more to shorts if we go higher. Bagholders will be punished again, question is when, that's how this game works and many of us have experienced this in one form or another already.

Not

Almost there guys, prepare to unload :-)

From my friend MrRenev

I've got the same feelings as '14 for days now, again consolidation too long at same resistance.
twitter.com/Lord_Ashdrake/status/527869710273372160

Not

I think should go dump to 7.85k then bounce close to top again then dump and bear market in summer to 3.3k, so can take profit around 7.9-8k, then reload on bounce more shorts.

Not

Again weekend pump on margin, to lure in as much money as possible, but it is NOT coming. The real buying power, maybe 100 btc from joe fomo and retail traders. Cannot wait to see this fakery come down to liquidate the 7k longs at the top. I'll be ready to buy the wicks and market sell those. I'm not buying in, putting my shorts in, no stop loss. Going to hedge with Bitcoin Cash when it's close to break out with spot buys, potential there is 20-100%.

My predictions will come true again, more whales need to be rekt and it's going to happen, because stupidity cannot win in the end. Didn't they wish for more liquidity? They will get what they wish for and mm need to eat too.

Not

Yes, same manipulators. Opening longs all at same time then close, rinse and repeat, try to get as many short SL as possible + fomo, but only net 100 BTC so far. I'm not buying it, at all.
Also keep in mind, there is net 20k accumulated at bottom, spoofy completed filled 8k in dump in the corrective structure (since then, pump was only $200 dollar and he's now in profit to unload again) and 7k longs opened near top.

Just because some small whales trying to make a buck doesn't mean the bigger boys are not there to take again whale money away, as they are bigger predators frying whales since January and my I'm 99% sure we will see 8k soon and 90% sure we will see 3.3k either this summer or next year before going to new ath. A bear market will most likely be 3 digits ("cheap" price).

Not

Short, no stop loss, not more than 10% of your equity, no overleveraging. Roadmap below.
Neutral (blue/cyan) is over. Bullish reaction/bulltrap over, maximum 10.2k.
Reevaluation at 7.85k-8.1k.

Not

^ Reason I say no stop loss is because of clear stoploss hunting scumbaggery. If goes to 11k, I put a short quarterly futures contract in.

Not

Going as planned, follows the orange line nicely :)

Can close 50% at 9.1 and reshort the bounce, but need to see how far we go before doing that, what micro structure it forms. To me, it still looks like complex algo pattern which is not finished yet and ending at 7.85 to 8.2, but you never know what manipulation gonna happen next, but shouldn't be bullish news soon anyway with court cases coming up over the next months, which will be trigger and "rational" of "why", when everything was already to be seen in charts.

If bullish reversal, then need to close other 50%, but this pattern should complete, it's taking very long time.

Not

Experimental.

9.1k little stop, consolidation or few hundred bounce.
Test 8.5k. If success, then test 9.4k. If test 9.4k fails, then test 7.6k else retest 9.75k.

No trading advice or recommendation to follow, just curious how this plays out.

Not

Be careful if you're short, I would close at 9.05-9.1k. I'd not long as well, in fact, I'm looking to put a short quarterly futures contract in and be over with this sh*tshow and going back to forex. We all can see it's clearly being held up high artificially and the name of the game = liquidation & stop loss hunting. First liquidating more shorts (there aren't that many of them anymore) then liquidating the longs (there are enough of them left where many are already underwater and probably have a stop below 6k).

This is not about trading/ta, this is about screwing over as much people as possible who use margin and carrying bags when they dump.

The last few days have been absolutely proof and bitcoin for a first time in a very very long time didn't came back to 38.2%, which means they're up to something and I've told you what I think they're up to.

Bullish target 10.8k -> 4.8
Bearish target 9.75k -> 3.3
Bear market 3 digits.

ETA; September '18 (bear market 1.5-2.5 years).

I think we enter bear market, for the reasons worse than mt gox, exchanges forced to shutdown, tether, money laundering, etc now with more people and money involved than ever with regulations in front of us worldwide. And who benefit? Think people.

Not

Got quite already some pm's why and what I do. Well, I've explained why here before and you absolutely do not want to trade in low liquid markets, nor being stuck in a position with low volatility and trading in highly manipulative condition at the moment and be prepared for the worst.

I'll sell my last bags that I have and cash out a large chunk soon. The rest is for scalping only, but I don't know if crypto is worth it when there is barely anything to earn. Can scalp a tech or energy stock in 15 minutes with more profit than sitting in position for a week, no matter long or short.

Not

Zoomed in, current situation

Not

Maybe they gonna dump tomorrow before SEC meeting/livestream (as they usually pump BEFORE meeting/livestream), regarding securities.

CNBC printed this news 7 March '18 but isn't displayed in crypto fakenews headlines, be prepared that tomorrow it can be printed everywhere to create that FUD.

And this ladies and gentlemen, I've said months ago in advanced in my crypto scam post that you always need to keep this in the back of your mind when you're dealing with crypto, for those that did not experienced mtgox or hacks where one lost crypto.

Some quotes from the summation:
The SEC statement marked an expansion of scrutiny to companies involved with trading, in contrast to previous publications that focused on the digital coins and their developers.
"I think the next step here will likely be subpoenas to exchanges, if they haven't already started," said Ryan Schoen, senior financial services policy analyst at Washington Analysis.
Ryan Gilbert, partner at Propel Venture Partners, which is indirectly a minority investor in Coinbase, said the SEC's statement "could also be a precursor to some enforcement actions."

The SEC statement did not specifically name bitcoin, which fell 10 percent below the psychologically key $10,000 level following the statement release.

cnbc.com/2018/03/07/the-sec-made-it-clearer-that-securities-laws-apply-to-cryptocurrencies.html

Preparation is key now if you're in a position or holding bags and it doesn't matter if you're long or short, I'm talking about common sense and capital preservation.

Not

Still on track. Depending on situation, you can see in chart what scenario might unfold. Green = bullish count; Red = bearish count, so don't have to close 100% positions, can leave open when situation is right. Bearish confirmation < 8.5k, then target is 7.6k for next impulse, else bullish reversal same top again up to 10.8k max before more and deeper down.

In the end, we don't care which way btc goes, it's about profitable trade. So far +12% shorting ethusd 1:1 leverage when everybody was calling moon again and btcusd greens on shorts as well :-) If bullish reversal I'll buy spot, not seen a legit reversal other than fake pumps on margin.

Still more money going out at fiat exchanges (kraken, gdax, bitstamp) than on bitfinex. Yesterday, bfx all day $50-$60 premium, which is proof people cashing out. I've said this for WEEKS. Last whales artificially keeping price high will be rekt, question is when. 40k longs and most of them are underwater. Liquidation price < 6k. Does that sounds bullish to you? They probably gonna exit around 10.8k zone, but it's not know we go there, only when whales wanna burn more money to give you free profit, don't think so.

Not

Also fits the trendlines, a bigger one from 6k, which is test multiple tiome, this drop soon fits above chart SAME target. But more tests is higher chance of break.

Not

Good game, as expected, hit on the cent to target and little bounce from perma bull gamblers at the 78.6. What's next?

Scalp targets:
TP 1 = 1:1 @ 9.046k
TP 2 = 1:1.272 @ 8.886k

If break 8.886k, then partially close at 8.5-8.622k. Then reload on the bounce max 9.4k, bear will continue 95%. Why? You want profit to reload and drain perma bulls' money, they want buy high sell low and attack anyone that has common sense or is against their own interest (see this vicious attacker on other thread who coincidentally follows only a few members, including magicpoopcannon and is new member, wonder why).
Rejection? Reload shorts, TP = 7.595k. Break? Short term bottom test. Med-long term target 4.8k. Bounce, reload short to 3.3k long term. Then buy spot scaling in for bounce. If bear market, wait for 3 digits, buy and hodl. No financial advice, my perspective.

Again, the short side is in huge advantage, see previous posts why (margin analysis, fa + ta). Long liquidations will happen, question is when.

For now, we need to be patient and don't fomo or folo.

Not

Longs vs shorts, most shorts are in green and not much to liquidate before going to higher price above 12k. Longs on the other hand... Most of them are underwater and not closed yet. Trigger point probably below 6k, then we see some account liquidations and rocket fuel down.

Not

Still in distribution phase... this consolidation taking longer than expected, but maybe they need to sell of more alts to btc before to cash. Alts show also signs of redistribution, despite 1/15th price per volume bot pumps, as on ethbtc.

Targets are in 2 charts above and still valid (C-zone). Don't count on the green one (is already hit), it's either cyan or white, so one more leg down. If break below 8.8 is confirmation I'm looking for and this top should probably be it, but don't fomo to short the bottom, be patient and wait for rebounce and retest as in chart.

Corrective leg on macro (measured from 11.7 to 6.45k) is one more down as well as the entire structure (20k to 6k) since bubble pop target same price around 3.3k on the 1.272 normal corrective leg C :-) Best case around 4.8k, still valid. At this pace, can take months or years. If years, I expect bearish scenario 3 digits, so then is good time to buy and hodl and of course buying in around 3.3k or playing bounce around 4.8k, but not all in of course, always keep some cash at the sidelines.

There can be reversal and you can scalp it. I see max target 10.8k, probably 10.2k if break, but why bother, the monthly median PV is 8k, so you carry bagholding risk buying high selling lower. For scalp I look around 7.5-7.8k price, maybe I'll upload chart then, but I'm not so impressed by this slow market, not much to earn now.

Not

Weekly analysis 2018-2020 @

Technically, there is a possibility for 13.8k in this reactive bullrun, but as you can see and as predicted, it's losing steam over time, so the possibility becomes stronger that 9.9k was the top for this bullrun IF we break 8.85k.
As of now, there is a possibility of 10.8k, but NOT more than 11.7k.

I still expect 3.3k and this would be a confluence zone of measured move 20k -> 6k + 11.7k -> 6.45k.

Not

I've closed 80% of my position on btc and eth.
Closing 20% at 8.9k. I'm seeing a running flat correction, mp2 in detail, mm play and can foresee a dump next week after consensus when retail is buying en masse to pump it past 10k then dump and slow bleed to 3.3/4.8k for the rest of the year, if not to next year. Right on time when I wanted to leave this boring slow market anyway, which will get worse, so remaining positions can result in net loss over time due to fees, hence I'll put short quarterly futures contract in soon when we top/overthrow.

I'm looking for the bounce to reload my shorts for a scalp, to maximize my gains or buy when it's below PV < 7.8k when I see a bullish reversal for the time being, but only spot.

I think conference is 14-16 May, so be aware of that.

Not

I forgot to mention, if it gets rejected hard at the 9.8k, I'm reloading.
Same for the bearish count (8.5 -> 9.4 rejection).

Not

I filtered and categorized hundreds of open tabs in my browser, found an old post of wall street cheat sheet '14 btc bubble and I thought, hmm, let me recheck how it fits this situation. Below is what I've found out (I didn't rescale, it's 1:1 log scale). It's pretty fitting and actually amazing:
a) the price action
b) the structure
c) the timespan
d) respecting the fib speed resistance
e) same target 3.3k

Coincedence?

İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı

Perfect hit C 9k, last remaining shorts closed. Now I wait what will happen, as looks more and more expanded flat, but can be setup for bearish overall continuation. Seems a lot of distribution going on and if that case and then dump, all longs at the top will be liquidated, then this was top for coming year(s).
Can also be manipulative fake bullrun for coming event to catch more fish, because bots seem still be programmed to pump with 0.0001 buy orders all day long, but probably won't be more than few % REAL buy orders, maybe not even more than 500 btc. Big players OTC already looking to get out, so it's matter of time anyway and that OTC is most likely linked to darkpools already that sync prices with the biggest exchanges.
Bubble still intact and summer in front of us, so I remain skeptical of continuation of reactive bullrun.

I wait for confirmation and looking for bounce, then if rejection short if price higher than 8k, preferably 9.4k rejection, double top, 10.35k or 10.8k, as it's unclear to me which path it will follow, well I've got suspicion of course, but need higher probability odds this will be a good profitable trade and not stuck with position in almost dead market.
If lower than 8k, then looking for opportunity to buy spot or put long.
Why 8k? Like I've said days ago, this is monthly PV and all markets go back to median eventually, so I got indication I'm not going to buy at high price or sell at low.

But can be possible one more attempt to go higher, I don't think this will be 5 wave, but abc/wxy, before continuing down, whether dump or bleed, this market is pretty much done with artificial bot pumps on low-none existant volume with low liquidity.

Not

Well, that was easy profit ~3% in 30 seconds. Quote May 8:
"I forgot to mention, if it gets rejected hard at the 9.8k, I'm reloading.
Same for the bearish count (8.5 -> 9.4 rejection)."

Looking for newer low, then retest 9.4k again and potential 9.6k. Same scalp setup but with new buy spot zone, little buy order, nothing fancy, still boring market, so not much to update.

Not

8.775k must hold, or it's confirmation for bear continuation, then next stop is 7.85k. But don't short, wait for pullback. If it holds can buy some spot, but not much and tight SL 8.695k...

Not

8.65k high potential for a bounce, so buying spot there. This is also C of bearish ABC and potential bearish W. Confluence with 61.8% as well. Because didn't bounce to 9.6, I don't consider cyan ABC to be valid anymore, it's now the red count either abc/wxy.

Algo target at 7.7k, so that place is good to long in for at least a good bounce or even last bull continuation with sl at 7.39k.

Not

Confirmed, continuation down. Not bearish ABC, but impulse 3 to 5 waves down.
Looking for pullback to add to shorts. Where are all the perma bulls now saying 12k, 20k, 50k when price was at resistance 10k where I put the big short in, all hiding?

Not

There comes the fud fakenews again, explaning to you "why" bitcoin price falls. First they tell you it's healthy correction, now they tell you because of Korean exchange raid. That I already knew and told you guys months ago and Korea is not even relevant anymore regarding trading volume, it's not leading anything. The more things seem to chance, the less it isn't. It was all in the charts guys and traders don't trade the news.
How long are you going to listen to these fraudsters? Until you see your 40k investment is worth $100? That's a big lesson and of course, the fraudsters will be gone and replaced by new ones, the cycle of life.

Not

Almost at target, expecting some rest and hopefully a bounce near 8.2. Be careful to have tight stop losses, if break, 7.8, then 7.5, then 7.2, before breaking through 6.5k to test 6k close above long liquidation and stop loss zone.

It's looking like 1st impulse down, no bounce so far, very dangerous to play long with +7k longs still open around 9-10k, but spot buys is pretty safe with tight stop loss to play the bounce, raise stop loss to breakeven, then higher so you can secure at least profit.

I feel sorry for those perma bulls longing at the top, they probably will lose 60% + 15% penatly + fees on their account soon with the rest of the 15k+ longs that are underwater and still open.

That's the problem. Most people who are in crypto for a long time are perma bulls and I'm sorry to say that, it's what I've observed and constantly hear from all around me. I don't marry a coin, I trade both ways, but I'm long term bullish bitcoin, not anytime soon until everyone calls bitcoin and crypto dead when the new bullrun is taking place and that means < 6k (4.8k, 3.3k or 3 digits).

And here is why. Too many people have not been shaken out yet and exchanges get more and more supply, meaning people with a lot of money (big institutions and soon banks) can lend that bitcoin from exchanges to short it (see bitcoin rich list top 100 who owns the most and those are just cold wallets).

The only way to stop this if people do not have weak hands and most of the supply is out of the exchanges, but this won't happen, as most people after 2015 in crypto do not care about crypto, but about money only, so they will sell for a better price, breakeven or with a loss in fear.

I had high hopes we could end this to 3.3k before regulations set in, to distribute it to as much people as possible, but because of sheer greed from the whales who keep margin long it to maintain high price, they stall time, which is good news for the big boys to soon not only short it to the ground, but collect much cheaper bitcoin with the bonus of having market share, then you can forget about a) high volatility easy gains and b) high price bitcoin, because they can put huge walls (their shorts reinforced by their stack to dump to minimize their risk) and isn't that what people asked for (liquidity)?
The reason why I say short it to the ground is already given, because of available supply from exchanges and their capital is much bigger than joe smoe buying at the same time, because the public does not have the buying power to smash let's say a $1 billion dollar sell wall. If you think so, you can proof my wrong by buying as much gold as you possibly can with all your buddies and see where that price is going.

I originally had set the ETA of this coming to an end next year H2, but at the way it's going it can be much longer, maybe 2.5 years, as of right now, it's taking longer than at mt gox days and I think that's the worst part, one more big dump so everyone long/carrying bags is at an instant loss (waiting for a bounce which won't happen), then a bleeding for months/years for maximum pain and capitulation, which we haven't seen yet in my opinion and I've said it since 6 February, that was too fast and too fast up again to sell breakeven or in profit, which is not typical of the end of bear markets at all, but the beginning of a bad end.

Just my thoughts.

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People called that 1:1 fractal crazy going to 8k few days ago, "it's too sharp", but look at last chart I've posted and this chart below from 3 days ago before it happened.

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Continuation down, no bullish reversal signs yet, but (local) bottom is probably close with everything overheating, so expecting target to be hit at 8.2k'ish. I'm calling it a day, will watch tomorrow further.

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Target hit, good game.

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Bullish reversal spotted, expecting at least 9k up to 9.85k, but first let structure form. Complex wxyxz correction invalidated > 9k, then need to wait for new structure to form.

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9.2k should be doable, expecting a big move up soon. Bullish setup looks very strong, same for alts, this time with volume. Be careful if you're short. Of course I can be wrong, but my observations tell me it's NOT good time to short now.

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Although the setup looks like a a (temp reversal), you still should be cautious.
Looking at the 15 min, it still has to break 8.7, then 9 and probably will be rejected at the 9.2.

USE STOPS if you're long/spot, don't do what I do without stops (because of wick sl hunting reasons), I've got alarms at all times and can close at a moment's notice. Still need to write a bot to do this labor for me, with extra benefit not even exchanges can see my intentions.

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Well this probably was it, maybe 8.7k test at most, alts are all dumping again with big volume now. Looking for short opportunities again, especially eth.

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This looks suspiciously a lot like the pump at 12 April, the scaled fractal shows same trajectory and end point around 8.7k for reactive pullback. 2h, 3h and 4h still show bullish momentum, so will scale out there and enter short on confirmation.

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For clear order, I'm not going to short at 8.7, I'm still looking for 9k as my original plan shows, because 5th can be extended one and there is confluence at 9k now, see chart.

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Nicer chart with targets

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Don't buy guys, it's going down more, only scalp if you know the risks. Slow bleeding for maximum pain as expected. I must say, I've barely seen bitcoin this weak in a looooooong time. Normally is a good bounce when falling this sharp and rsi being oversold, which tells me enough of my suspicion this was all a pullback after big drop 11.7k -> 6.4k, now almost all longs are underwater, the guys that bought at the bottom will slowly sell their stack, which was ~20k net accumulated, so potential to see 7.3k soon. Can buy spot there again with tight stop loss for few hundred points. Problem with btc is, there isn't much to earn despite being right. Bch pumped 12% and ltc 7% while btc only pumped 3.5%, so better to check for those shitcoins as well for better gains.

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If this higher low bottom hold 8.9k max, structure getting more clear, but is not finalized and I don't think I will update after this one. The bigger picture chart is still in tact, nothing changes, just scalping targets.

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So far so good on my experimental fib speed resistance big picture, next stop shows 7.8k @

Experimental | Fib speed resistance fan | BTCUSD

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^ Click play on that chart above :-)

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Almost there, should go to 8.875k to have a perfect confluence zone at 7.885k, which should be the last leg down.

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The retrace hit wxy key levels, not so sure if this is a regular abc to 8.8k in the micro, rather than a wxy to 8.745k. In any case, I expect one more little up and one more leg down to target, so nothing really changes, other than a "quick" scalp (the irony).

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Pump and dump ETHBTC on zero volume. Good game if you're on margin, free money for exchanges.

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Easy money shorting eth. +140k longs opened for ethusd at 1 May '18. Bot pumps with low volume, this will end badly for bagholders, since buy side in books is very thin.

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Target hit (wxy count). They probably try again for the white lesser degree C count.

People bullish again when we're close at top of B, typical buy high, sell low situation. First btc must proof making lower high close to bottom and hold it or go lower. I'm not buying in yet, looking to sell and short.

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^ Higher low*

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Oh guys, don't forget to set low ball offers during summer. With 140k longs for eth opened since May '18 and orderbooks getting tiny in summer, you never know when eth goes to $0.10 again like last year, from ~400 usd to $0.10. Now for that price, you can hodl :-)

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There goes ethbtc, easy money shorting on big green dildos when buy power is gone. I think 3.3k is still too much, 1.8-2k is expected. I got more data to analyze past performance. The volume feed for bnc at tv is invalid. You can ask bnc for sample. Log mean regression ~$600 per bitcoin.

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Maybe one more up to 8.8 to finish C, then down for bitcoin or this was it, but bears gonna make money, imho. If break 9k, then bullish reversal or bulltrap, can either set stop just above 9k or flip, but I'd not flip. This is not the bottom, first need test at 8.25k, if break 7.8, then 7.3k.

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Sorry for my late reply, had a bad flu, still not fit, but back at least.
In the meantime, 2 perfect hits on the dollar, so hope you enjoyed that easy profit targets, as for me, I wasn't in any trade and still not am. Gotta analyze last few days before i make my next move and most likely when I'm back in shape.

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Did some analysis on volume fiat vs usdt, there still is more fiat going out than in and like I've said and is proven for months, this is leading indicator (volume exceeds price) regarding reliability in my books, so nothing changes, except it's more bearish than I thought a few days ago, especially considering a lot of gamblers took margin longs at the recent top and still are not closed, so I wished I didn't closed me entire short position yet, but I'm looking for either way to open, preferably a long position.

The next stop should be 7.8k, but a strong bounce has yet to be seen, so compare that to the risk to take your position or stay out. Another possibility is to try to play the triangle, which is too obvious, which is now at 7k, falling below is likely a retest at 6k. There is of course possibility that fiat is still waiting to get back in at lower price, which could mean a sharp pump, but with summer in front, I remain skeptical. Anywho, we close gap to the average price for the past months, so I remain positive for the meantime for an opporunity to long btc and short eth.

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If it stays here rangebound for another exactly 7 days, I'll be out the market and only do futures at the most and keep some coin in private wallet.

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It's brought to my attention that some people are copying my exact wave count, even wxyxz to the exact same targets on the dollar, then paste it in their own charts and ask for donations... the same people who keep spamming new charts so when they're wrong (as most of them consistently are), they will never update those and keep going with the ones that do came true to bolster their ego and attract more followers for their own monetary interests and tradingview simply does nothing against such bad actors, I'm amazed.

I've no issue sharing my work to the public for free, but it's pretty low to give no credit and especially sad to ask for donations when those guys have absolutely no clue how those targets are derived from and those new accounts are no exceptions, whether free, paid or top. Last few months... I better not speak about it and maybe it's better like most who do know how to consistently make money not to post frequent anymore or not at all, let's see how well they and their followers will do.

Keep in mind, I do this for free and will never ask for any donation. I love to give back to the community, love life (despite the forks in the roads we all have - and there is a reason why for everything) and help people to become better in their craft, personal development and path to prosperity, even though I, myself, am a lifelong student of life, but I've little tolerance for fraudsters and scammers.

And to remind you, if everyone has the same targets, it most likely will not happen. I can inform you that if I've spoken to you in chat or in comments you're not the ones I'm speaking off, so do not worry.

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h&s target hit on the dollar again, but this ain't the local bottom yet.

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RED ALERT:
Like I've posted before and which is just reminded me by my friend, everyone expects the target I've set out for a long time already at 7.8k, so it will most likely go much lower before a bounce. The RSI is already reset for the bots.

You can still scalp the 7.7-7.8k range, but you need a very, very tight SL, imho, see chart. I'll scalp it, but only when I'm behind the monitor. I do not sleep in coin, but cash and I have level 2, algo's and scripts to give me an edge to see if a potential reversal/bottom is in play.
I've lowered my buy in range, for spots: 6.9-7.1k.
For long position (swing trade): 6.6k.

Note: small size, never all in. Money management is much more important than trading/ta. I've literally seen most traders blow up accounts, because they go "all in", they will not last and I've never any come back after blowing up a few accounts.

Crypto gurus and most crypto traders are just lucky so far, but there comes a time soon where the wheat will be cut from the chaff in this market as well, because everybody is a super saiyan hero in a bull market, full of ego, calling everybody out who they disagree with, but look how many have lost in this bear who bought above 10k and how silent they all are, they just disappeared!

If you study the history of trading, markets and economies, you notice bear markets tend to last longer than bull markets, but since crypto is not fully matured yet, I give it the benefit of the doubt of expectation 1-1.5 years bear market, instead of 3-4.5 years.

Trading is not meant to be easy money for everyone. For some to win big, many have to lose. It's still a zero sum game.

Trade safe. If it's too risky for you, simply do not trade, because the best trade is no trade in that case.

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^ Guys, the lower targets are for longer (medium) term.
The short term 7.8 still stands, for at least a scalp, so I expect you still can make money there. Why? Because there is big confluence zones of multiple calculations and fibs and as you've seen from this "blog", when this happens it will usually go there and bounce/reject. I don't think we go dump right through it, only when they have intentions to do so, like that -15% candle dump a few months ago. If that is the case, you can throw out all short and medium term ta out of the window, because in that scenario, it will go much lower. Same goes for pump.

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Fakeout, if this goes higher than 8.575 I'm removing all my spot orders and going to place bids at 6.9-7.1 and 6.6, otherwise the plan remains the same. Still great for my short reentries though, so I don't complain.

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RED ALERT:
Thanks to MrRenev for tip 30 min ago, tether printed 250 mil and almost instant pump again, so I assume this can take a while before it will CRASH even HARDER, just like all the other times before since bubble pop. So be patient, get your shorts in at best possible price possible and enjoy the crash.

Scalping 7.7-7.8 carries HIGH risk now, based on past events. If it keeps happening over and over again, you can expect it will the next time as well, plain common sense.

I'm looking to buy in at:
6.9-7.1
6.6
4.8
3.3
1.8
0.8

Good luck trading and thank you tether for your service :-)

omniexplorer.info/address/3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL

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Guys, you still can scalp the 7.7.-7.8 range, but I'd not recommend it, please do not do what I do, you can easily lose money with those tiny moves when it reverses.

Also, I don't know what the impact of this tether will be, how high of a pump before a dump. I think it's not wise to fomo in. Before that need to see pullback and see if it holds, that's better then jump in and lose your shirt, because you can set tight sl for minimal loss when you're wrong.

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Without this tether fomo (?), I'd have expected max 8.3k and a bounce at 7.7-7.8, but since we know have bounce, I think there won't be bounce at 7.7-7.8, but consolidation before going down more. I still have posibility open for good bounce if this one fails at 8.337k around 7.7-7.8, but I don't think it will happen (hence blue dotted arrow to 9.1k).

It's more likely than not that shorts will be build up around 8.3k and higher, which was my initial estimation of the highs for this bounce, but it seems we're going to break out of it, how high, who knows at this point.

So, if you're in, raise SL so you lock in profit when this comes crashing down or flip to a short.

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What I expect under "normal conditions", target 8.337k and it's of course still possible it will, but after experiencing many "tether prints" pumps and dumps, I doubt it. Either a) that tether is used to buy bitcoin, b) that tether is used after the dump for people to store their btc value in, c) whales take advantage of this info, d) joe fomo buys in after the news. But think and ask yourself, how is it possible it always pumps just before or in seconds after it's on the blockchain? I'm thinking out loud here: insider front running (also for b), medium powers, pure coincidence or not related at all? Unlike many, I remain open to all possibilities.

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Looks like bulltrap to me, no buy signals have been generated at all on my indicators and still shows what I've drawn yesterday. Maybe this abc 1:1 (blue target) was it and even that $50 spike is too much.
Going to 7.7-7.8, then 6.9, that's what I expect.

Was this the role to create additional tether? If so, it's actually pretty brilliant, it's two birds in one stone and to their defense, it is actually a good idea for people who have no access to usd to trade to an equivalent value and from an entrepreneurial point of view, it did and does solve problems people asked for and they're the first to do so, so we have to give credit where credit is due and stop making allegations when we have no proof (conjecture and opinions are fine - so please do not misunderstand). Every story has two sides, to put things in to context.

With that being said, I still stand that a dump is imminent for this extra reason, because if it keeps happening, for me, it's safe to assume it will next time (unless proven otherwise).
"If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck".

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I'm not fooled my friends. The selling at fiat exchanges is WAY higher than usdt markets. You don't need to have a level 2 deep inspector for this, just open all fiat exchange pairs and watch live and compare to usdt.

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All those top authors and other "experts" suddenly become bullish because we broke a trendline, like usual. Successful traders do not switch each minute from sides and keep emotions out and have a deep understanding in the market they operate in.

Believe it or not, TA actually is one of the last points that is important. What is important:
#1 Preservation of wealth (capital)
#2 Psychology
#3 Emotions in check
#4 Market understanding
...
#9 TA

Ever wondered how mm and deep pockets can make money? It's called painting the charts/tape and make bullish/bearish signals so the herd join in, then pull the rug from under them, that's how big money is made. It's also by liquidating high value targets on margin.

I'm still amazed how people can totally switch 180* in minutes, then being wrong again, lose money, then join the other side to lose money there as well. Then later say they were right. That's not trading, that's gambling and shows lack of confidence, understanding and having a methodology/plan. If you cannot stick with your plan, you will not last.

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Oh I forgot to mention, pump and dump like eth, stopping/flipping people out all the time. Easy money, eh? "Organic"

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Targets (short and medium term)

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Well, well, look at that. Fake pump with no support, maybe that cash injection was used for the eth pump, which is now tanking as well, but to be fair, they tried to paint it as one real support (but was obvious when the 8300 broke, there was no support at all, that was the first sign when they pushed price back up, but meanwhile, selling was strong at the fiat exchanges). Talking about fiat exchanges, the dump started at kraken euro pair and finex followed 2 seconds later.

Very disappointing, have at least expected double top and a bit higher to fill more shorts, but oh well, it is what it is. It still is possible and I hope they pump it up, maybe they have some cash now with eth liquidation for another pump and dump, because it's too organic for me.

For the roadmap, nothing changes. Next stop 7.7-.7.8 consolidation before more dump to 7.55k for a small bounce, before next dump to 6.9-7.1 for maybe a bounce towards 9k, before more dump to 6.5 -> 6 -> 4.8 -> 4 -> 3.3.

2.5 years of bull is not over in several months and the longer it takes, the longer the big bad bear will be. Those CNBC shills will not make a difference, other than make you poor (when they've teached you how to become millionaires buying XRP at $3 before it tanked to less than $0.50).

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^ That bounce should potentially be 8.15k and if broken up to 9.3k, sorry for that

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A lot of people gonna lose a lot of money. It's bleeding before the hard dump, then most of you will buy the dip at 7.7-7.8, like most will buy there from their ta, even decades old traders having experienced dot com as well, to lose again. Stubborn irrational people cannot be reasoned with. Oh well, I've tried to help, but I won't force myself, it's their free choice.

Can go to 8.275k, double top or a bit higher, but not much room anymore. There should be pump in 3 min, if not, Monday you might wake up to 7.5k.

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It should go one more up if this higher low holds to target

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^ It posted when I copy-pasted my chart url... Target = 8585 - 8591. It now has confluence at same target, so I expect this to hit, again if higher low is hold and under "normal" conditions.

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So far so good, got rejected on the top channel.
There is possibility for 8.6, not a guarantee, as my friend pointed me out this algo pattern, usually indicates the top this large pump spike, so now can raise SL in profit area (below any of the 3 fib levels you feel comfortable with).

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Almost there guys :-)

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Pump kaput?

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Target hit, they probably try again, on next rejection I think dump starts.

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Maximum 8.7k.

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I've gotta warn in advance @ May 21 '18 that if the low at 6.45k is going to hold, it's POSSIBLE to see a break at 12k up to 14.2k in advance, before the naysayers come in. It's all in the charts for months now, even with naked eye is easy to see. The odds for this I estimate lower than 30%, but if it goes to 12k again, expect it to break (bulltrap) before entering an even LONGER bear market for multiple years.

In any case, the best case is to end this bear market as soon as possible, not prolong it, that's what I think 95% of people do not understand and think I'm bearish, while I'm realistic/objective. I'm bullish long term, but I'm not here to lose money to feed the ego's of perma bulls or bears. You gotta do what you say and walk the talk.

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Long gamblers and scalpers can play the 8.4 for max 8.8k. If you're short at 8.6k you can buy spot to hedge or reload for 8.7-8.8. Why I call them gamblers? Doesn't it show in the RR ratio? As a bonus, we're at midway in a midway downtrend in an overall long downtrend, which favors the short side. You can long around the bottom, not in the middle. I doubt many people have any clue when they're presented a naked chart what they're looking at and what the direction most likely will be, if so, yes, I call them gamblers too and indicators or fancy patterns won't do any good when you're building a house on sand.

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So this higher low gonna hold or there is one platform below (bigger one), if break, enjoy the long ride down. Already scalped a good $$, thank you top authors for long recommendation :agree:

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Local bottom should be in for one more up local higher high. Bought spot and closed shorts. Then more down, longer term 6.6 to 6.1, medium term 6.9-7.1k. Expect a fight at 6.6k.

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^ Thanks to Nightfly and Tu, I haven't used this abcd for months, but this one is just too perfect :-)

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^ To add to that, you can throw this idea out of the window if not break 8.45k, then it's abc more down to 8k.

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If break 8.15, reshort for profit/hedge. The tether pump has come to an and as far as I'm concerned, most people who were long near the top/resistance are scammed again out of their money and stopped out. There is no support at all, 7.5k + 8k fake (own) walls, should go to (sub) 7k. Otherwise it's still in this pretty tight trading range.

The low volume selloffs are very concerning, it seems I was right after all, it's all a scam, facilitated by tether injection and cash out in fiat. That's why I have raised concerns regarding solvency at fiat exchanges, since you cannot redeem tethers for fiat and this tether balance keeps growing while the market is contracting, and more and more trades are done via usdt than fiat, THINK PEOPLE.
You want to see a moderate scenario come true? Look what happened at Cyprus, those exchanges act as banks on the basis of fractional reserve banking and the money is not there when shtf. That's my theory and so far have not been proven wrong on this.

Well, you already know what I'm doing soon and this market has to be proven to be one manipulated mess to milk people as much as possible, where earnings are so poor compared to other markets, with high risk of losing money in pnd as well, it's not even worth time and effort, especially when people think it's over this summer, how wrong they'll be when this continues for next few years, only losing money, because they only can go long. Just keep adding short futures in until this circus has come to an end and all gamblers, manipulators and fraudsters have been washed out, for next bullrun and next group of gamblers, manipulators and fraudsters, the never ending circle of life. As a tip, there is barely anything to lose with short futures and lots to gain, plus, it's cash settled, regulated and off exchanges.

Just my thoughts, hope it could have saved you money.

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So where are the bulls? The pump scam all over now, stealing money from 90%?

Daily bar break 8.135 = normally short, but never know with manipulators now, do we?

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Possible inner triangle scenario: bullish/bearish exhibit

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If break this higher low can short to the ground. Too bad didn't had my shorts open from 10k, I was right all along, total scam pumps + tether pump and dump. Can buy back around the bottom 6.5-6.9k and sell the bounce and cash out. Stop loss below 6.45k. Don't come back after, because exchanges can show insolvency, that's what I expect. If low price 3 digits or 3k, can buy at website, store at private wallet and come back when your funds are insured and exchanges regulated. This can take years, NOT "summer bearmarket over".

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Ok, I see the fud stories come out now, the manipulators probably took short positions at the distribution phase around 8.6k, so we might see dumps soon. I'd set tight stops if you're long.

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The Bitcoin Deepfake, pseudo predictive drops?

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Just wow, like 2 charts when I've posted the deepfake "predictive drops", hit 100% on the cent, coincidence? Just compare the two, it's unedited price measure, just weird...

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By the way, for scalpers, this "should" be the local bottom for bounce, but it may not happen like last time when expected was 8.33k... If low is broken (double bottom) then it's flying ;-)

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Amazing, I check chart after good coffee, what do I see? My last "predictive drop" hit again on the cent! 100% accuracy, so weird :-) Just check it out and compare previous charts to see I'm not bullshitting.

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Guys, we don't gonna break 6.5k for now or coming months, imho, so stop worrying about 3k for now :-) People say bear market over in summer, so they will buy again when it goes up and then get the real dump upon so they're at instant loss, then can bleed for years to 3k, then they're shaking out when they cannot handle it anymore and swear never come back to crypto, when the real bullrun starts, so they buy again at high price when it's too late. Just want to tell you in advance vs all those emotional people who call doom and gloom or moon and lambo.

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Nice red, alt index collapsed, see you at the bottom. Ltcbtc, xmrbtc, etcbtc all broke the bottom, it had months of consolidation there, this will be huge resistance for the future. Game is over for bagholders who didn't sold by heeding the warnings months in advance to sell this last chance pullback, this was it.

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There needs to be more blood.
Longs getting destroyed in the near future by marging longing the top again, without barely closing, while price goes down, longs go up, so the those guys still need to be destroyed, they have no more big money for big pumps.
31.1k @ 10k (only 1k closed)
31.7k @ 9.6k (only 1k closed)

30.48k @ 19-05 @ 8.225k
32.5k @ 22-05 @ 8.35k
32.3k @ 23-05 @ 7.5k

Shorts decreasing: 20.7 @ 19-05 -> 19.9k @ 23-05 @ 7.5k

Matter of time before more tears.

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I love it how people think this is the "reversal" and longs increasing, so those guys are still in the market. More pain needs to come, I will adjust my time expectations of bear over when those guys have blown up accounts and have left, as of now, I still think at least 1.5 years.

Have you noticed shorts are decreasing and haven't even opened so much since the top until now? They probably are scared or out of the market, but the longs are not. For Bitcoin to be healthy, those guys need to be wiped out, because debt fuels bubbles, it's not good for long term, since long term investors know those guys want to sell break even en masse, so when it hit their price level, it's going to dump, it ain't gonna happen.

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Korea (China) + Japan broke bottom, this should follow soon. Big dumps.

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Bitfinex seem slow...

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It's slowly going, that's 6 minutes delta, hope you could have made opportunity with arbing +2% free money. Always keep tabs open of each exchange, pays off, like in January dumps, Korea was first and finex followed few min later. That was a whopping 25% on shorts in no time, easy and low risk.

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Oh, by the way, people say Bitcoin cannot go to 3k, because mining costs are higher. That's absolutely incorrect:
a) The mining is ~ in China (they are in control of the network/btc, has been and still are);
b) The mining costs for gold exceed for many profits, hence many go bankrupt and it's still mined, even when it goes 3 digits, which it will in my opinion, within a decade.

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If the bottom 6.5k does not hold before 2nd week of June '18, there is a high possibility sub 2k price within ~1 year.

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Reminder: You should have a tight stop loss just below the previous low around 6.4k if you decide to buy here. You think 20k bitcoin is a lot and it's nothing what can come. There are still a lot of people bagholding, plus aforementioned miners and early adopters and a lot of margin longs. The run to 6k was nothing in my view and a 20k dump can mean a 2k instant drop followed by panic selling and the real capitulation with volume we've NEVER seen before, not manipulated volume, but massive candles. I expect this to come, with over 95% certainty, then soon after is the time to buy and hodl, not now. There will be a lot of tears and people crying for help, which will be shown on the MSM worldwide, before austerity kicks in, with the fakenews now making it look like regulators allow most if not all the things that are happening in crypto, I don't think so. It will probably also happen to be that in the meantime most alts go to zero.

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I got a lot of pm's about this manipulation and that exchanges are behind with their bots and I assume it's absolutely true, just look at the alts. Dump 1000 pcs, pump up with 10 pcs same price, price suppression, going against traders' positions and stop loss hunting (huge wicks) and I could go on and on, hence why I've said months ago to expect exchanges to be (forced) shutdown or they claim to be hacked and close shop themselves (how do you know they're hacked, you still believe everything you read? It probably never will be proven anyway, the perfect exit scam) and that you see be wary of red flags of insolvency and cash out in time, before the storm hits (i.e. Cyprus situation).

You should NOT trade illiquid markets, because when you do not trade against other traders, you trade against the exchange. Most volume is fake. Look at pump and dumps like stellar, etc, monero, I could go on. Pump with laughable 'zero' volume (not even 20k for +5%) on the btc pair. Be careful guys, exchanges are like forex dealers and you know what they want from you. You cannot trust anybody in this space.

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And... there it is, the 7.5k dipbuyers underwater now as well

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Crypto swift and deadly, dangerous territory

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Probable reversal zone right here with weekend in front can be pump, just saying.

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$7250, where I closed shorts

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Hmm, break again, each rally sold, would personally not enter on any side.

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There we go, huge pump.

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Thanks for the ride, so long

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Well, my prediction came true again. One month ago, I said that the big triangle is too obvious and for last few days, I see most TA now have the triangle and rely on the bottom there, like almost ALL of them. How is it possible for MM to make money when everyone is doing the same? Like I've said before, if everybody sees the same, it isn't going to happen, they won't give you free money at their expense. So either reversal just above the triangle before dump and bleed or big red candle right through the triangle, for me, that's obvious, but it probably will consolidate there to lure in more traders, then punish them. That's how market works. If 99% is correct, who is the 1% who lose in a zero sum game? Think about it.

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I would be surprised if we pass 7.73k. Why give the people underwater a chance to escape, especially since everybody expecting a good bounce with same targets... The longs still need to be liquidated who longed at 9.3k - 10k as those in January, no mercy from the MM to gamblers, aus dem Markt!

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Nice bullshit washtrading 0.0200 orders for 10 minutes now, can't wait for this crap to burn down to the ground. Algo's kaput and regulators eagerly to step in. Too organic for me. I've no problem with arb bots to set price straight, but this is ridiculous 10 minutes of 0.0200 buy and sell spam orders and make trading lagging like hell for traders like us.

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So the crypto scam show is still going on. Fakeouts, stop loss hunting, pump and dump, washtrading algo's and I could go on and on. Will see what happens when Mt Gox 2.0 x 10 is going to unfold.

Better to short this crap with futures, when you're wrong, you only pay a small penalty with 0% roll over fees. Can't lose, but can win big. Not worth my time to track this crap again. So long at the bottom.

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Got a tip: Just put orders 10% up to 20% under/over market price and keep eye on each hour and hope you get filled then market sell/buy it for instant profit. This is the new trading with better returns and low risk. That's what bots do as well, every second they put wall below or above market price %, that's why most trading engines lag for you, but not for them. Why? Because they have special accounts with higher data rate limits than you, retail and whale trader always is in disadvantage, don't forget that. This becomes the new trading in the crypto scam, catching wicks and dump it.

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I'm starting to believe the exchanges are Spoofy... Most of my buddies already cashed out, so who keeps trading? What I suspect, it's algos from exchanges and some retail bots, the latter who always lose vs the house.

Some key observations. When I put stoploss in, I got stopped out at the exact bottom with huge wicks, on the cent/satoshi 100% accuracy. When there is big dumps at finex and binance for eos and got my buy order ready, kracken remains totally flat... no trades for last 10 minutes, BUT, when you have stoploss, they WILL execute IMMEDIATELY and pump it up so you cannot buy back in for same price or lower.

The longer I'm in crypto when other traders have left, the more it stinks and the feeling I play vs the house in a big rigged casino.

So bots are from exchange I assume, because arb bots are not working, no trades 10 minutes even when price has changed 5%, go figure. Only when you're at disadvantage, they will execute, that is, when you have stoploss or are in loss.

Same for GDAX. Sometimes 3-5 minutes flat on the btceur pair, even when price is 2% different than other exchange. Then suddenly hundreds of orders executed same time (algos). ONLY when you're at disadvantage, most of time, your limit at gdax will never execute, same as on rex.

So we either don't have enough arbitrage bots who have enough capital or the bots are the exchanges or both are true. To win, must play vs other traders, when other traders have left, you play vs the house, no thank you.

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The weekend pump scam is here, maybe can with very high risk buy a bit to 7.9k. The tether fud will be printed soon again, in Germany they're already at it, it's not displayed on the US fakenews, yet. Heavy fud regarding finex and tether. Just be prepared.

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Don't buy on my advice (and I give absolutely no advice, only my opinion, experiences and observations), I still think it's a trap, and I'm fairly sure about it, this can dump straight to my lower end targets and get any bagholder in instant pain. I believe we won't bounce high back at all anymore here in this local bottom zone. There have been too many lucky people, especially swing traders, who bought near the low and sold near the top and now bought back in hoping for a golden ticket, but MM isn't stupid to give free money away, they will give back to the market what belongs to MM. Just my 2 cents.

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Oh, and most people say the dumps are manipulated, BUT, they never ask themselves, if there are huge dumps, there were huge pumps. So they mean that November pump was organic? Look at weekly chart... That pump was totally manipulated and a scam to begin with. People are so hypocritical and in my book, it worse than lying.

Usually in such parabolic moves (bubble), the price will go back to original point and even below it, so 1.8k is not unreasonable, even 1k is still very possible. Cost of manufacturing one bitcoin is estimated to be $50 in China. Nobody cares about the flawed argument that bitcoin must be above 3k, because that's the cost in the USA, market does not care, especially China.
It can even go below the cost of production of China's price and they still profit when they have marketshare. And remember guys, it's all about marketshare eventually, when you have dominance, you can dictate entire market and be the emperor.

I estimate btc price to be around 2k without all this manipulation to start with and that target I estimated many months ago, but 3.3k is reasonable assumption for now once the bottom is broken, which it most likely will.

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I'm looking to buy the next bottom, I still expect 6.6-6.7 for (little/decent) bounce or even at 6k. This is not the bottom, can consolidate to make bullish on the indicators, but that doesn't mean anything other than to lure in your average trader. If this is the bounce, which is highly doubt (triangles are continuation, which is down in an overall downtrend within a bear market), then don't expect anything at 6-6.5, it will either consolidate there or go straight through it, creating even more bagholders. There still is net ~16k left out of ~20k from bottom accumulation alone, so keep that in mind.

At the moment, I've removed all limit orders from the books and only will buy when I see a potential profitable reversal, because outage of exchanges just before that -15% dump few months ago won't be forgotten.

I know quite some friends, people and whales already cashed/cashing out.
The remaining ones are scalpers, swing traders, gamblers and last to leave, the manipulators (read my crypto scam post about the psychology of those nutjobs). The longs from the last run to 10k are still underwater and haven't closed, like the rest of the longs at 12-14k, so their remaining equity is almost non existent for a manipulated pump. It's a matter of time before they're liquidated on top of penalties and sucking of daily interest for months, so they probably are worst of than your average bagholder at 16-20k, at least they still can sell to buy back in cheaper.

The longer it stays here, the bigger the downfall. Measured move triangle 7k, but doubt there will be anything there. People who think this is the bottom already bought in, so there is almost nobody left...

This is just another weekend pump and dump in my eyes, gonna see some bagholders soon. Wealth is being extracted out of crypto and lamboys already thinking about 20k and moon *shaking my head*.

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This is what I mean, little whales and kids who pump with small money and it comes back immediatly with one tiny 0.0200 bot order, it's retarded. They deserve to lose money, pump scammers.

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Result of little whales trying to be a market maker in weekend, they are getting destroyed by the real MM, there you go.

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Japan + Mex perps have made newer lows, but finex not. Also, shitcoins in btc pair still have their algos not flipped and most of them are in huge bearflag, so you can short those as well before operators change their algos.

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Mex didn't made a newer low yet (very close), sorry, Korea (China) + Japan did.

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If you go short on the shitcoins in btc pair, do very, very small size, because you can easily get destroyed there. Need to hodl some shorts for the longer play, I expect some to tank really hard, especially hypecoins. Most alts probably will go to zero at some point. No financial advice, just how I do it.

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Some nice short ops for xmr, keep an eye on xmrbtc and btcusd, this one can bring some serious money on the short side, looking how this is going to be delisted more and more on exchanges.

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Yeah, xmrbtc huge green candle, time to put those bagholders underwater, putting scaled shorts in have some market sells in place, will be a nice one to the bottom. Can start short right now, profit potential > 400%.

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ABC to ~10k was textbook ~61.8% retracement to fit elliot wave theory, after fall from 11.7.
I'm afraid for perma bulls, this is wave 3 in progress, imho close to impossible to make this as wave 2 for bullrun to new ath... look at bigger structure, January 20k to February 6k looks bullish to you? So drop from 10k is perfectly in line of downward continuation. Maybe a bounce soon 6.6-6.7 to 8k before continuing, maybe, who knows where it stops, at triangle what everybody expects (so doesn't happen imho), abc target, or just straight down.

Argument saying that sell volume is drying out and this is the bottom is imho a trap. That volume will always come AFTER to justify your rational, hence you're always too late and unprepared and get in instant loss when the dump happens and imho, that sell volume is reserved to break 6k... which makes total sense, because this is the last stronghold and < 6k is where the BIG money is to be made, liquidating longs and panic selling of bagholders, which will happen, I can guarantee you that, because it always have been and it's the biggest fear of any bagholder/investor. The big money cannot be made to the upside, it makes no sense. Market maker needs to eat too.

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Very nice, still going as planned and if you're following the updates in this post, you'd know the alts would get flipped on Monday (as I've said, operators forgot to swtich or was to milk gamblers/Joe Schmoes). Some alts have still a long way to go down, like monero, eth and xrp. But maybe we're close to a small bounce within a few days, who can predict time.

There are some buy setups for icnbtc and zecbtc, but I'd wait for now. I wouldn't touch other alts, especially eos, this one has loooong way to go down still.

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I like this quote from RiversAndMountains:
"That being said, retail is always long and there's an _awful_ lot to gain by smarter money being short in this delirious moonboi environment."

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How do you feel last year 3 digits btc, $0.003 xrp, $10 eth ,$3 ltc and I could go on and on. Retail is being scammed and sold marked up price by big institutions already bought the low (as per quote from Rivers) and lies being sold and propagandized by msm and fakenews.

You know what a true bear market is? Price will go in to UNDER-valuation, i.e. lower than prices of start of '17. If we get that bear market, I think many people are finished, especially people on debt (margin, mortgage, etc.), meanwhile those smart money have earned big money on both sides.

Now I don't expect lower price than , but I'm open to that idea that is good possibility.

You are not a trader if you can only go long.

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12 hours ago I post to short xmr when was at top I shorted, but price dropped so quickly that time I made chart (see previous xmrusd + xmrbtc charts) was still at ~27, now is 21.8, but will go deep. +6.5% profit in fiat already in 12 hours, like last time 1 day 6.5%, 2 days 12%. Take profit at 12-15%, then wait price back up, reshort with compounded profit = exponential gains. Rinse repeat until it goes to bottom, then buy back using profits and hodl. That's how I play. This is not financial advice and maybe I shouldn't post this here. The big gains are in shorting alts, but is also higher risk, since liquidity and volume is so low, so cannot do big size.

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^ 27 = 227; 21.8 = 218

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ETHUSD 2 digits expectation, with an average possibility of reversal at either ~$202 or ~$117.5.

This current run still has a bit to go down, but is already passed mid point, better to wait to short or to long.

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CANCEL ALL (BUY) ORDERS!!!
youtube.com/watch?v=bbxjTzEbLmI

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So that video came 13 min before the dump started right now, how convenient for you guys ;-)

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When there is a dump/fight, this one might get you in the mood @
youtube.com/watch?v=EAwWPadFsOA

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I'm going back to scalping stocks and forex. Will also continue to scalp/swing trade with reduced account balance on kraken and mex, but not what I've got now which is considerable more at high risk exposure to such bullshit. So my posts will probably not updated as much anymore for scalp setups and early spotting of reversals, but swing trades at most.

The reason I've posted in my crypto scam post. Another 15-20% profitable trade turned almost in to disaster by exchange problems. I'm sick of it.

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Well got some pm's why I leave (I won't leave guys, I will play with very small sizes from now on). If you read my posts, you see how rigged this game is. I bet > 95% is fake volume and walls are from exchange. Why do you think sometimes walls are completely gone, then a dump happens and your stop got triggered on the satoshi accuracy, with sometimes 20% wicks. Yes, if we multiply all those occurrences last few months, me winning the jackpopt 3x in a row has a higher probability than this.

Which leads me to the following conclusion I've made this week: When you do not trade against other traders, you trade against the house. You CANNOT win, especially when you're margin, but you can lose big. I've got gut feeling more and more traders have left crypto, so you're in dangerous territory. Should be obvious when you read the bitmex rekt twitter feed. They got after BIG money, liquidations, total financial destruction.

They have MOST SUPPLY (see richlist top 3: ALL exchanges, see top 10: almost all exchanges).

You guys and girls have been told a big lie and the truth is more supply is finding home at exchanges, NOT hodlers. So who is really the market maker?

Should also be obvious when you big huge buy walls on shitcoins, yet the selling never stops for weeks and it goes down and down and down. You think, we have support, big buy walls here. How do you KNOW it's real orders from other people and not from exchange?! Sometimes you see those walls disappear and there is a reason for that which I've said before.

Be careful and stay safe.

#1 Rule: Do not lose money (preserve capital). More important than making 10k, what's the point when you can lose 10k + your entire account.

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Some lies that are being told:
- Wall street is shorting to they can buy cheaper. Wallstreet is NOT entering (yet, if ever in 'currencies'):
a) unregulated
b) unsecured accounts
c) high risk speculative asset class
d) no market share / control
- Mt. Gox trustee selling market. Bullshit, he sold OTC. It's right from his own writings. Go to homepage of mt gox, you find ORIGINAL source. Now that he doesn't sell until September, this fud story is gone, bunch of scamartists cannot play this one
- Bitfinex fud that Phil is leaving
- Whalepool fud about taxes
- Binace hack fud
- Korea fud
- "It's just a correction, next 18k, 20k, 25k, moon, bullrun", blablabla

Guys, please stop listening to this news and to 99% of people, including me, it's almost guaranteed to be fake, so use brains to discern what might be truth and what are lies. This space is a cestpool of crypto scams, if I want to name it all, I'm not done until tomorrow.

Always critically think, even if you don't know anything about TA, you likely will make good money. Common sense people, that's all you need in life to be honest, to go anywhere.

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For btc traders, I don't expect reversal happening for a few days at least, if not straight down putting every bagholder under water when they least expect it. Maybe again when exchanges have problems, why not, extra bonus, maybe like few months ago, overload mex, website down kraken, huge lag finex, then dump that -15% candle and don't come back to same price.

I'm currently in no trade as you've read before, but not happy how my ~50x win streak got 1 loss due to screw up of exchange (close short x amount, but no, do x * 50; Known problem with kraken, google it), but it is what it is: acceptance, but not without a twist, it's followed by big cashout, maybe it will give incentive to fix problems instead of getting rewarded with lots of fee revenue.

Sorry for my rant, fresh experience needs to get out and be shared with in this "blog".

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Good game on monero short, +12% on xmrbtc * btcusd delta, just in 17 hours.

More downside to come, but looking for a bounce soon.

Too bad I've closed all my positions at the moment. I have to reduce my account balance until kraken figures out subaccounts (one for margin, instead of entire equity - make sense right - why would I risk 100% when I only trade max 3% of my equity on margin, everyone else has it to reduce risk exposure, so, still don't understand why it's not implemented yet...), that will take 1-2 workdays before I'll enter any crypto trade there and my scalps on mex you find very boring, as I scalp them naked chart + fibs only.

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Nice bull reaction, short ops become available soon, looking for the 38.2-61.8, this is is wedge break out, can go to 8.3k (falling wedge target), which is close to triangle bear trendline. I remain skeptical. This can just be wave 2 pullback before continuation longer cycle.

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If anybody knows good professional trading platform (linux or windows app, NOT web browser) that can integrate all major crypto exchanges with management outside of orderbooks with all advanced order types + conditions (like sl + tp same time), all in one program, please let me know.

I know of Coinigy, but it's limited for my uses and doesn't support bitmex trading and ninjatrader doesn't even have that many exchanges as coinigy. There also needs to be ways outside of rate limited error like on kraken, polo and gdax, otherwise it's useless if you cannot place any order. If error, there needs to be retry by the program until it executes without double spending. Managing over 100 orders in a limited webgui within seconds when shtf is impossible, like last night has proven.

Thanks!

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Anticipated move, let's see. I don't believe a bailout will be there for bagholders.

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Alt index at local resistaence, maybe one more small leg up before more down or this was it.

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I love it how people magically put their trade on active now claiming to bought "bottom" (12 hours ago) AFTER pump, but you won't hear them when it actually was at the bottom or when it keeps tanking. Yes, I include those people in the crypto scam to a lesser degree as well.

At least have the balls to say in ADVANCE if you closed shorts or went long. As you can see from above posts, I did close at the bottom, which I said before when I closed all short positions. Maybe I should limit the people I follow to a max of 10, I get spammed too much anyway.

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Post 10 hours ago where I closed monero shorts (the bottom)

Very soon good op to reshort monero for round #3 (again 12-20% in 1-2 days)

Keep eyes on the alts and btcusd, it's not time yet, but very close. Good luck.

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Alternative based on alt index correlation, probably ranging until btc end of cycle 6th, so no trades atm other than scalping.

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Market psychology | From my friend MrRenev

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Probably another pump incoming to finish the pattern.

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Leading alts all tank, small caps as well, I wouldn't enter any other trade other than a short on btcusd.

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Well, that escalated very quickly with monero... -7.5% in no time xmrbtc, too bad I missed my entry.

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Experimental spreadbet: 7.5k +- $20 before down leg

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Thank you sir. There should be options for bitcoin, why are they trying to ban it :-(

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Nice pullback today finally after a long time of blood, but now there is nothing at 7k anymore, so this is actually more bearish in the medium term if it will be rejected at 7.8-8k for bigger dumps and lower lows.

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Time to bail out soon :-)

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Crypto juice almost up, prepare to scale in shorts.

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It's verified once 7.3k is broken, and closed on the daily, so don't rush in, I'm still waiting for a better price to get in, have already one small one in place.

If v-shape bounce 7.3k can close for an intraday scalp locked profit.

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Bulls will be tested @ 7.3k

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Expecting some bull reaction around this area 7.3k +- $20. If not, it was a nice bart after all :-)

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The golden ratio, so perfect 100%

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Should break out to upside, mini bullflag, if not was abc, 100% accuracy on the fibs and golden ratio spiral, how awesome :-)

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Very weak breakout, it looks like algo complex pattern again, so continuation big dump down I have as high probability.

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I would wait for daily close on the daily and more importantly monthly if you're not in yet.

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Was talking about potential shooting star on the 12h with a friend of mine here on tv before it happened then dump today, totally forgot to check today and it's close to it, but not officially (and more of doji with a pretty big body) and it happened, but this TF is bearish and gives indication of more down, so be careful. Funny how you forget things and it later comes back.

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Gotta love pumps on no volume, 2x in row no pullback, count me on the short side.

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Alts do not follow for last 2 hours at all, nice baby whale pump, so after pump follows dump. Waiting for nice re entry.

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Shitty Kraken down again when you want to put in short.

Can donate 2x 1 million usd + beg for donation, but cannot fix system for 7 years, they don't give a damn. Great business.

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^ Cryptwat.ch is down, my apologies. Have send pm to admin, let's see. Buddy got double execution orders now at Kraken though, so something is not good...

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He reset the servers, cryptowat.ch working again, I can confirm, still waiting for short re entry, didn't got filled by $0.70... Having patience though.

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This zone up to red = distribution Wyckoff, same for alts. Why? Because:
pbs.twimg.com/media/DeV9bkuX0AARtWK.jpg:large

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Short op available btc + eth

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:-)

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Time is almost running out as indicated by the fib spiral, I love this algo pattern. > 98% lose on this 32-step pattern, this one is a real money maker, thanks to vlad for teaching me this algo pattern quite some time ago :-)

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I keep seeing a lot of people now talk about 6 June now again reversal, since my friend surangadesilva posted excellent analysis on time and reversals regarding futures.

Because of a) this and b) for the first time the half yearly futures end at 29 June (started December) and the expected volume for the contracts for the next monthly are severely less (of course, it's summer time) you need to keep an open mind that there might be nothing at 6 June at all and it won't happen as it used to be.

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Bitcoin riding the spiral, it's like art! :-)

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Thou shall not past the golden ratio!

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Funny how those scam pumps are always low volume, so dumps are always big and in profit. It's so easy to make money with scalping this garbage pump and dump all day long with 25x leverage.

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Should go to 7.3k. Tomorrow new updates.

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So nothing new has happened. Just same distribution again and again to low volume scam pumps. Matter of time to make new lows now, 7.3k is now too high target, next minor test is 7.2k before breaking the low at 7.050.

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To be more precise in chart, but this boring trading range will probably continue for more time.

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So the crypto scam continues... Another scam pump. You could see from my last chart 20 hours ago, shorts skyrockets at the BOTTOM and longs closing.

Result: +800 shorts at bottom, longs closing and pump. Stoploss hunt on purpose OR was this the PLAN after all? What I mean is you play both sides = washtrading. You open shorts at bottom while at the meantime you bought it spot from YOURSELF. I've seen this bs before quite a few times. This way, you can paint the chart without being the MM yourself. And again, happens in weekend, like most of the time. Why? Because almost all fomo'ers have spare time in weekend to buy crypto, they go back to work monday, and it dumps, as usual. It's prepumped for him, so he buys high, it's a scam.

Current situation: -800 short, longs +800 at the top, so count me on the short side, at least for a scalp. This is how the game works now, destroying people on margin and since the hype is over and the trend is down, I keep reshorting and waiting for the final crash, the total wipe out of all existing longs.

Reaction Joe Schmoe and your average trader: Bullish, bullrun, buy. So I give credit to EW having observed this typical sheep human behavior to buy at the top near correction, before it all comes down again. To me, it still looks like distribution and scamming people with liquidations and stop loss hunt with your shills and Joe Smoes

If you're at total nooby, you can make more money than so called "pros" if you have a brain:
Longs skyrocket at top/resistance = short.
Shorts skyrocket at bottom/support = long.
The bigger the resistance and support, the less risk vs no entry.

So where is next big resistance? 8k and 8.4k, but then again, it might never go there and you miss out.

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Chart below, should be rejected at ~7.9k if this is distribution before the dump, which mp level suggests.

I won't be buying now, other than scalping, have seen this psychological game before since January, especially now that everyone is bullish for last few days, I'm more bearish. I think the better bounce play would be either around 6.5k (> 6k required) or at a newer low at the high 4k range.

I think the purpose of this pump is to drain buying power from bulls away so when the real support needs to be defended, there is no more bull in town left. Buy high, sell low, the way of perma bull riches.

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Bigger picture

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Can start to scale in shorts. You will know if you traded in '14, it's now the exact same (technicals, sentiment, fake bullish news and shilling) up to 7.95k. If break above can either hedge or flip, I prefer hedge.

No financial advice, it's what I'd do.

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I see everyone now bullish, so I'm confident in my analysis. Same anticipated fakeout happened at eurusd, let's see how it applies to btc ;-) Gotta love the weekend pumps.

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Short op for ETHUSD, hidden bearish div, fakeout higher high just, lots of room to go down and little to go up.

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^ ETH medium term

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Good luck bagholders, you won't be bailed out for breakeven, it's not how this market works, that would be considered a miracle.

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^ Note, that is gdax, finex has more accurate pricepoints, but the chart is cluttered atm and I'm not going to remove dozens of objects, but this will give you an idea.

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Short op for EOS tomorrow BEFORE mainnet launch is avaiable. Profit potential is enormous.

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EOS, to keep it in kid's jargon: lambo's for bears. But be careful, because I've just heard they will NOT launch tomorrow, so artificial high price manipulation may continue until the eos is released. Best is TO WAIT until it's released.

Quote:
"Until now, EOS tokens have been structured as ERC-20 tokens and have run on the Ethereum network, meaning that users must transfer their tokens to the coin’s independent blockchain. During this complicated process, token balances held in ERC-20 wallets have been locked, and exchanges have FROZEN deposits and withdrawals. However, exchanges continue to allow users to trade the LIMITED SUPPLY of EOS tokens currently held on their platforms, creating an environment that is not entirely comparable to other trading pairs."

I expect this one to dump hard. Artificial high price. When? I don't know when the mainnet is launched, so the eos is released.

^ Mirrored would give you an idea where it's heading.

Source @ ccn.com/eos-price-pumps-after-mainnet-release-but-this-rallys-not-quite-organic/

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So nothing has changed since yday, weekend milking on going. I'll wait for the bottom defense rather than paying premium little upward profit potential. The action is there, not here. Holding the higher low at 6.5k and especially 6k is key.

The fact that it's only keep going up on scam short squeeze pumps again in weekend like every other weekend last 60 day cycle looks rather bearish to me.

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Weird observation, I leave it up to you.

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Possible beartrap at triangle break 7k

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So the operators let the small fish create a bullish weekly candle this weekend. I'm still bearish, because it's clearly distribution still (not accumulation) and we keep going up with descending volume which is clearly bearish, so matter of time before dump. The weekend pump happened again like last two months.

It's best to wait for short position on btcusd, ethusd, eosusd and potentially xmr (but xmr already tanked pretty hard, so wouldn't short this).

Algo's seem not to be flipped like last weekend and if you followed that post, you could have made easy money with alts with fake bot pumps which got switched later on during workweek.

Everyone calling for moon, I call for doom. The more money is going in to buy, the bigger the fall and more bagholders and no more support when it's needed. I wanted to buy at lower price, I pulled out all orders. Good luck at support when you need it, there might be nothing there.

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I don't get how people think this is bullish and calling for 8.2-12k, there must be something wrong with these people who keep being wrong all the time or am I just crazy? It's a clear struggle bus to me who trying to force grind their way to heaven, I call it a scam and ponzi... Nothing organic at all with this upmove, no accumulation no reactive V-shape with volume or jesus candle, nothing. Be careful if you're in a trade.

Not

Wedge break

Not

Going as expected, so nothing new to update other than eth.

So this eth ponzi is still high price. Cannot wait to see over 100k longs being wiped out. From 71k to currently 178k long positions open, ALL new longs underwater. Shorts were placed at the right price, so should go down hard. There were 240k longs around the top before price came down hard. They need to be liquidated for stupidity. One simply does not long with such size in a bear market, period, that is, if one is not a degenerate gambler.

Not

Scam pnd on again. Every morning dump, then entire day up. Can go to 7.68k then 7.45 then 7.28 and do this bullshit for weeks. Great sideways to leech from daily rental fees on positions and sl and liquidation hunts. The big money is still < 6k.

I know a lot of you guys cannot make money last past weeks. Intraday trades have low profit and swingtrades nothing. That's why I mainly scalp (besides intraday on another exchange, which I forgot to take profit on today, so shame on me) and now you probably know what those horizontal and trendlines mean... 25x-50x near perfect entries can make a lot of money. Obviously I do not recommend anyone to scalp, because it's not for everyone, in fact probably less than 1% of the 5% that can earn with trading.

Not

Scalp target 7.8 hit, can go to 7.57 before pumping to 7.75k before dumping again. Good luck making money with longer term trades. I don't wanna spam the thread how I scalp, you need to figure this out for yourself ;-)

This high manipulative price is bad for crypto AND exchanges (yes you've heard that right, the volatility will be lower then when it's cheap price - the longer it stays here the worse for all). When regulations come in, smart money stays out for those high prices, they want cheap price. Next to that, bitcoin will be replaced one day. You can be lucky if hit 32k, which I think we will, but not for coming years. We probably will never see 200k bitcoin, I've said it in my crypto holding post why.

Not

Correction: 7.68k* scalp target, as said before

Not

People ask me, why the pump. Because like I said, in sideways, there is nothing big to earn other than high leverage scalps and LIQUIDATING. There was someone with over 20m sellwall at bitmex... so you know what will happen then, right? Liquidity to liquidate him then it pumps and finex follows and everyone follows finex. It's simple. So next is dump, since too many did fomo. The top should be set at 7.8k, of course it's possible to go higher, but I don't think so and I'm fairly sure of that. It will go < 7k, question is when, can also range for weeks until end of month.

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You gotta me sh#tting me. Tether pumps again, good game. Thanks vlad for tipping.
omniexplorer.info/address/1KYiKJEfdJtap9QX2v9BXJMpz2SfU4pgZw/

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^ Another reason why I doubt big fiat money is coming in. This needs to be fully explained in detail for all crypto participants. Nobody is going to risk 500 million usd when it can explode and next day be worth 0 usd per usdt... Tick tock, tick tock.

Not

So the scampump worked, I see almost everyone super bullish again and post their active trades. But after tether injection comes dump, I'll let you conclude for yourself for which tether is traded with.

Not

Short this pump and dump ponzi 7.75k - 7.935k (no financial advice)

Not

Use futures as well, so they cannot steal from you. Low risk, high reward. Hodl shorts until breaking this triangle and wait for accumulation phase for minimum a few months, will take many months.

Not

Now that 99.99% on TV are über bullish, I'm more confident on my short orders and dumping my remaining coin. That's why I scalp and trade holistically, to spot what they're up to like this afternoon after the two outages at finex and what happened on mex. How many of those going long do know the reason of the pump is my question?

Not

I'm gonna enjoy it when Dan is dumping his 1 billion usd eth on the market, this eth ponzi still at high price, no words for it.

Not

The 6-6 6pm came to fruition :-)

Not

Wait before the fud news comes, they (fakenews) didn't release it on purpose.
It's about finex, tether, eos, tons of eth moved to exchanges, etc.. You probably will hear it after the blood has spilled and 99% will blame the news, don't be fooled.

Not

^ To clarify from last comment, fud/fomo, whether real or fake, can be used to rationalize price movements afterwards, so need to keep that in mind what highest possibilities are if you're in a trade or want to trade.

Not

Cliff High did a hit piece on dev behind eos, it seems to be real, no fud I think with the facts he presented. Be careful if you bagholding.

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I've updated this this in my crypto scam post in more detail.

I've read some speculations from others on reddit, wild conspiracies going on, pump with tether, cash out own stack against fiat at high price at fiat exchange, then close doors when not insolvent by so called "hack" before regulations are set, as Jordan Belfort (the real wolf of wallstreet) said in December. Interesting thoughts.
Who knows if it's true, you probably will know after fact, right?

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^ insolvent = solvent (typo)

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All scalp targets hit as said in my post 5 June to the dollar... Can be one more up or crash down within a few days if not in 5 hours. Get your shorts ready and hodl to at least 6.8k to take some profit... Hedge or flip if break 7.95k. My opinion only, do not do what I do.

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It looks like this ponzi (with that, I mean this fake bullish upmove) is going to 7925 after all... strugglebus forcing it's way to there. Can also any minute collapse now or at or just before destination target. Now almost 100% of people are bullish, better get your shorts ready and set sl if you're long/bought spot and keep rising it like a take profit order, so you can close near top.

It's reinforced by many fakenews websites like bitcoinist, only printing bullish news, never bearish news, talking about scams and manipulation. Trying to convince people by omitting vital information to get the complete picture and probably outright fraud fabrications, like giving you impression that wall street broker Fidelity is coming to rescue your bags, so don't think that msm is bad, that alternative is good (never think black-white, there is gray as well, read the works of Fredric Bastiat & Gustave Le Bon how the herd thinks).

I've told you before that NO institutions bought bitcoin from exchange, it's all lies. They try to convince people by implication and hinting in their fake stories that large players buying bitcoin. It's NOT true. I've told you guys that they build a business AROUND crypto, so that does not mean they have any crypto. They profit of from people, you ARE the product, not the bitcoin.
Dutch government did a research and today was published that institutional players didn't even enter, with exception of really small players who are in loss. I also gave you reasons why and you'd do the same if you owned 500 million usd. You simply do enter unregulated field, where most of trades are performed via usdt.

The coinbase fomo news is also LAUGHABLE and they do it to not being registered under SEC's registered national securities exchange, so they fall under less strict oversight ATS (by SELF REGULATION, hah! Now you know the truth about the fakenews narrative, which never told you why they want to self regulate, did they?), so they are NOT forced to combat FRAUD and MANIPULATIVE PRACTISES.

Read from a credible source, instead of fakenews crypto websites owned and operated by whales or paid by them:
whiteandwilliamsbusiness.com/sec-issues-guidance-to-cryptocurrency-exchanges/

Tone Vays is correct and I agree with him. Crypto is nothing like last year and before, it's becoming a cestpool of scammers, fraudsters, thieves, pnd and manipulators.

Good luck guys and remember to use the most valuable asset you have: your brain.

Not

^ To add to that, Tone also said that Tether is a ticking timebomb that can bring the entire crypto market down. Now if this happens, you probably can say goodbye to your fiat, there won't be any if a bankrun happens. I thought the pro tether guys loved the fractional reserve idea (but why then oppose central banking, a tenant of communism? Hypocritical, no?), but it's worse, they are not redeemable, so that professor who did research on relations between usdt and bitcoin price is probably right after all, bitcoin price inflated by 90%, normal price ~$2000. Be careful guys.

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I can see fire, damp it

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youtube.com/watch?v=079RCUtk8s4&t=4s

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Amazing, the pump started 3 min what I've had anticipated (the vertical bar). Postponing in tight range == rental extraction, oh well.

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Nothing new, crypto PONZI scheme continues in yet another fake pump scam weekend like last two months. What more to say when this charts tells a thousand words.

It's like they're begging to continue the bear market for another 2-4 years. If so, bitcoin is over and this top is set, just like gold is and look where it's at, it's still in a bubble phase heading to 3 digits, all in span of decades, such a store of value that depreciates vs fiat, not even counted the loss vs inflation, that's why Warren Buffet does not invest in gold, because it's not an asset (I like gold and bitcoin, don't get me wrong, but I like to preserve and even better, increase my equity more).

What is good for crypto is to get back to low levels to get people and potentially institutions in (again), but right now, it's bleeding to dead, even slower than Mt Gox at this point, so yeah, I'm not going to put one more cent in this, keeping prices artificially high and betting on the greater to buy from it, it ain't happening. In fact, I can see a storm of problems coming in the near future, so I'll have fun again watching everyone running to the exits at the same time again.

No worries, when the first leader of the pack sells off, the sheep will follow. When a pump happens, only the gamblers and scalpers are left. So much potential money to be made to the upside, not. Where money to be made is sideways for exchanges when you're in a position and liquidating all existing longs that are still great in numbers, so that will most likely happen < 6k 99.99%.

Get your popcorn ready folks and enjoy the show.

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Gotta love it when everybody is bullish, I smell a big short opportunity and it's probably the last, so why not take it.

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So one day later nothing has changed, gonna pull out of most of my money soon where money works for me. Just had a great day and party, having heard of better entrepreneurial enterprises where I want to put some of my equity in and more in expanding my own business internationally.

I'll be back once the bottom is in, maybe doing some high leverage scalps on mex when good trade setups are presenting itself and keeping profits secure, for the rest, there is nothing to update on, this bullshit can run for another 1-3 years.
Maybe up to 10.4k, then down, then up, then down, bleeding to 1.8-4.8k and consolidating and accumulation for minimum a half year to test this low area once again before a potential new bullrun is in place.

Keep putting artificial high price, no institution gonna invest in this and yeah, have been talking with such caliber guys and were in college in same class with them and worked with a big guy to know what they're looking for and it's not crypto. It's indeed a zero suckers sum game, where everyone is betting on the next greater fool and returns are so meager in either long or short, it's totally not worth my time and energy.

Good luck guys, just short it with monthly futures if you want to make money of this ponzi (not financial advice, obviously, I really dislike to write this from time to time).

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And don't tell me it's impossible to go to 1.8k, you weren't there when it was 3 digits and proven to be new at end of 2017 and I know that, because every fool who said this to me (with childish responses and ad hominem attacks, part of paid pnd groups, etc.) started at end '17 or early '18 and you know who you're when you spoke to me in pm or written to me in comments like that and all your predictions were and are 100% wrong (all of them perma bulls), so if you feel offended by this, you know I got you and I'm speaking the truth.

It can even go to 3 digits. Clearly, those people have absolutely no idea how this price was pumped from 2k to 20k, because they have absolutely no understanding what happened in '13 as well and yes, it's almost similar/identical as mt gox (bots, virtual dollars, manipulation, etc.), so outcomes will most likely too, so I repeat, it doesn't have to happen, but if human history keeps repeating itself since the dawn of man, my bets are it will happen again.

This time is not different, the environments might be, but the outcomes are not, because humans still have the same emotions as thousands of years ago, that won't change and there is a reason for that, but this is not the place for philosophy and esoteric knowledge.

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To add to previous comments in case I don't update anymore, 1300 USD is the ideal place to buy for me with the size I haven't been playing with for a long time, just FYI.

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Maybe I have overestimated mm capabilities on mex, it was very clear where sl were of many high level accounts, namely at 7.45k area for many who went long and it only went to 7.5k instead of spike down to collapse that liquidity buy wall and create a huge wick down. Now, those longs have closed and cashed out btc at mex, good game, so lucky with $5 off.

So no, I don't think bitmex is involved in playing against clients, because they could have easily wiped them out and buying it up on the cheap. I think it's stupid wannabe baby whale gamblers on mex who need 100x to feel important or are greedy who didn't see the obvious how to make easy money, oh well, they call it there a casino for good reason.

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In chart I identify the systematic problem of crypto space (prices) by those margin long gamblers, which are part of the PROBLEM screwing with market price and YOUR time. Good for them being underwater again, those guys need to be removed for another criterium serious investors are looking for. Why risk money when some gamblers use debt to pump price (inorganic) that can collapse any moment with extra fuel.

If you also studied economics, you KNOW the problem is DEBT, it always have been and always will be, especially when interest cannot be paid back. Bubbles are fueled by debt, whether it's stock market, housing market, public school system, but also crypto market. It's unsustainable and unhealthy. You know what happens when you have debt? Some day, the debt collector will come when you don't pay off and strip everything you have.

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Thank you for the money. I was probably one of the only guys calling the short again for WEEKS and 99.99% bullish and said to buy here on tradingview. So much pro's here on TV. Sorry for the bragging, that happens when you drink France red whine that is bottled for more than a decade :-) I've took some profit and set SL in profit area, just riding it out while I sleep really nice soon. Have a good weekend guys.

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Good game, bye, have a nice weekend.

Quote:
Jun 5
Comment: Scam pnd on again. Every morning dump, then entire day up. Can go to 7.68k then 7.45 then 7.28 and do this bullshit for weeks. Great sideways to leech from daily rental fees on positions and sl and liquidation hunts. The big money is still < 6k.

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Can reverse here to 7.7 (65-70% chance), be careful. I'm awol now, have good weekend.

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Ooga Bogga
youtube.com/watch?v=IW19xASnqw8

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You've got been "tethered" (meme, not fact, still is reddit conspiracy consensus), see you at 2-3 digits in a few years, look at roadmap, mt gox 2.0, mt gox 1.0 pumped by mt gox 2.0, hopefully I can say again I was right all along :-)

İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı

6.7k target reached, took months. Garbage market makers milked everyone dry. Time to gtfo crypto before it collapses, leaving some cash for scalps, good luck.
All shorts closed, 6.7k long got stopped out by a wick, ffs. Can reverse, but I don't care anymore, you can see how toxic this space has become, I'm out, have a good summer guys!

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5.8-6k can be reversal area / strong bounce if you still wanna trade this garbage before going more down.

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6.5k looks decent enough for at least 7k for a potential scalp. Will probably be one of my last updates, have enough of this scam. Been waiting 3 weeks for this move down. That's the problem with btc, it either only goes up or only goes down and never has proper/healthy pullback/corrections.

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Think it's missing one more leg before consolidation and probably up for some time, maybe 1-2 weeks, before more down, but this is btc, so you never know. But reason I think this is the alt dump, so they might pump it up to leech more perma bulls since so many panic sold the bottom, just my thoughts.

Confluence zone at 6.45-6.5k.

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Quick update:
I'd be careful if you're still short. I see signs of accumulation (either shorts closing and/or spot buys), while shorts are building at the bottom + bullish signals on the 2h and 3h, while 4h is turning bullish. Can retrace back to 50-61.8% of dump before potentially making final wave down to target green zone. Then it's waiting what it will do or make the final dip with sharp move up before more down (bart style).
I also don't think mm is allowing a break of bottom support yet, before moving higher, but who am I.

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^ Clarification "I see signs of accumulation (either shorts closing and/or spot buys), while shorts are building at the bottom":
shorts building on finex, but other margin exchanges are heavy buys, I assume short closes and/or spot buys.

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Better chart + Bigger picture

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The liquidity on the sell side is pretty low, idk who fired this off first, but looks like they wanna get that liquidity on mex 10m sell contracts, 7k should be possible as noted in the chart and maybe higher, as noted in the chart 2 hours ago. Attention is required now.

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Going as planned, if 10m sell contracts are cleared it can fly higher, you know how it works. Caution if you're short, as said 2 hours in advance. 50% retrace will be expected minimum.

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Deadcoin ETC +25% in 25 minutes... all because coinbase decided to add deadcoin fork, this is the mentality of crypto space, wow. Thought crypto has matured already, but seems still like kindergarten. A dead coin guys... if everybody walked the talk, caring so much about crypto, then why they only care about fiat, when they say it's so evil and crypto is the anti-dote *shaking my head, the hypocrisy*.

In summary: If hodlers really cared about crypto, then why are they fomo'ing and folo'ing about the price and news? Why the obsessiveness to check price every single day on their cell phones, it just doesn't make sense, unless they're all lying, then it makes 100% sense.

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Shitcoin pump and dump ETC, with irrelevant news listing on coinbase. What future ETC has? No wonder shitcoins and scams can go up 100000000% in gains, like Bitconnect, at least ETC has some charisma and nostalgia and isn't as bad... but no future = no investment. So who buys? Maybe one day we know, it's all on the blockchain, it's a matter of time, maybe... let's see by then if we're still alive.

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Another chart (can buy shitcoin, but cannot buy bitcoin)

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With fibs (since some of you guys I know want to know what it looks like (placement and settings))

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Finex messed up the short liquidation at mex, with around equal volume while mex had huge buy vol 90MM usd on that pump and little on the dump, oh well... PnD and you can know when it a) no upwick and b) no double top...

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Enjoy scalping this further, when btcusd takes a dip, the alt party will be over.

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It's funny how you almost always get stop loss hunted on the exact cent/satoshi on Kraken, makes you wonder, especially after summer eth flash crash '17... It's not what it used to be. The times my buddies and me used SL, there is almost a guarantee they will go after it, especially when you're decently sized. We've got an etalage of hundreds of screenshots at the moment, this bullshit is no more coincidence, the rate is over 50% with 100% ACCURACY, even to a point of 20% wicks to screw you over to then continue the trend, so a) you not only lose money, but b) you also miss the entire trade.

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^ It's very much provable, with over 12 btc charts open of all exchanges in a time of consolidation and NO TRADE(S) activities, even on bitfinex, how then is kraken the only exchange possible to hit your sl with 100% accuracy on $0.10, ask yourself to then immediately go back to original price with "no activity" with the exact SAME size + 0.001 amount, HOW. Mm's play at its finest, 100% rigged.

I can guarantee you what will happen next. They won't let it fall to 4.8k or 3.3k for a looong time, because they need income from your rollover fees and bleed the longs, before you get liquidated. Same story for the shorts.

When the storm is about to hit, most of the inventory is already sold at premium marked up prices, because let's be honest, who was able to pump it up from 2k to 20k. It's NOT you, it's NOT institutions, then who is it? Who is able to even use the MSM to promote bitcoin and ripple at the top of the bubble WORLDWIDE at the SAME TIME. Who was able to create this hack narrative that has absolutely no impact of to start with, again WORLDWIDE yesterday on the news?

So don't complain about manipulation of dumps, because there were no dumps without pumps. Secondly, the bitcoin experiment is much bigger than you ever thought, at least for most people. It's already been a success, that's why cash (your privacy and freedom) will be killed in the near future and when they roll out their own government issued crypto, bitcoin might be dead and the price will never come back. Why do you think there is propaganda against bitcoin for some time now? Some food for thought for you.

How easy it was to lure the fish in with great promises of return on your money, this always has worked, since most people cannot think of anything else, so that bait always has worked wonderfully, so in the end, those bagholders have nobody to blame on, but themselves for being ignorant and/or acting on bad emotions.

That's why most of us trade, we don't care if this shitcoin like etc pumped 30%, even if it was bitconnect. But then, we carry the risk of cheaters in the game where there are no fair rules and you can't do anything against cheaters.

It's no accusation, but clear observations of many people for many years, especially since last year. Also makes you wonder how it was completely impossible to put orders in days before the bullrun for 17x returns on xrp and bch in just a few weeks which may and probably will never come again (the returns in 2 weeks time), plus the 3 days of outages when the bubble popped and it tanked. Ask yourself, HOW that is possible and if this is not planned in advance.

So hard to believe any narrative for problems in the future, like hacks, because we already know from the past and experience, it will likely be as fake as fakenews and msm propaganda.

My apologies for the rant, it's more for the new guys among us that you're not crazy or alone when this has happened to you as well.

Not

^ Oh, and as a bonus, since most of you guys never traded in '14 and you only watch the charts for TA predictions, let me ask and tell you this.

Did TA predict Bitconnect price fall from ~460 USD to < $1 USD in 1 day?
Did TA predict ETC pump +30% in 30 minutes or Tron pump and dump?
Did TA predict the insane Swiss Franc pump based on a release note of a central banker? Many traders and brokers went bankrupt, because they only relied on TA, they found out the hard way how foolish they were, even when they've used a stoploss, the execution was on the other side, due to slippage, so a stop loss would still have destroyed you.

And yes, I do NOT trade the news, BUT, I have it always in the back of my mind of calculated risk + have calculated it already in the price.

So let's get back to Mt Gox and the bear market. How many people would have told you the bottom was saved by Tether which a lot of people at that time believed? If that is the case, would it have been possible it would have gone to 2 digits? Yes, let that sink in for a moment. The charts would have looked completely DIFFERENT. So then, how can people say it's "impossible" to go to 3 digits? There were even people who said going below 10k is impossible, so I know enough. Mt Gox never went away, even the narrative and there will be more in the future whenever it will pump or dump and 99% of people will eat it.

Good luck guys.

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Pamp is on, be careful if you think going in alts with your btc

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Bitcoin über weak, no support at all, breaking tl's, coming back in consolidation, don't expect much anymore... there was attempt with 10 million usd contracts at mex nice pump and finex totally flat... better finish to 4.8k and lower for rest of years.

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Can long between 5.8-6k I think. Possible 6.45k consolidation, but I wouldn't count on it with this big size drops without any significant pullback. They won't allow to break the 6k (yet), in my view. I won't take position, only spot at best for the longer trade, I know summer is coming.

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I really hate it when I want to post my chart using copy-paste link, it uploads my idea with text only (auto click upload button), but here it is

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Target hit, I don't know if this is the bottom guys, can be 5.8-6.2k as well. If break lower it's bloodbath, I don't think they will let it happen (for now).

İşlem aktif

Lol, got stopped out, made a type, went long at 6475 usd, had stop at 6499.9 :D Oh well, bought back in, close to bottom with $25 off, not complaining.

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^ In case you didn't know what went wrong: I had my stop ABOVE my entry, lol

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There can be a shakeout, if that happens I'll buy more, I'm not in heavy yet, but bought spots. Can go up to 6.2 (I've calculated 6.3), going below 5.8 and something is wrong with this space before going up a good amount. This should build an accumulation zone in the green with a possible shakeout (spring) at 6.3k, so don't panic.

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I see many wanna short the break of the support, but I think it's bad idea so late in the game. It can do a typical wyckoff accumulation spring pattern and burn you, which would be the ideal beartrap, once again. Thought people had good memories, oh well.

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FA wise also good, spreading fear of irrelevant 50m usd hack and bagholders selling, that's the news I wanna hear again around every (temp/fixed) bottom since bitcoin's history.

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I rather see this support holding and another short squeeze, that would be nice, thank you MM.

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I think it's over, sell volume on fiat exchanges is huge compared to finex, people or exchanges cashing out what I've said for months? Selling the bounce and I'm gtfo with a small size short, the supply is huge.
No bounces so far + 2 cycles of bear, instead of alternation since 4 years, it's real.

Not

Just compare gdax, kraken and bitstamp vs usdt markets, what more do I need to say? There was yesterday big sell walls at bottom for eos and btc on kraken + gdax, 25 million euro 1 order eos at the bottom and you cannot short it there. Careful guys, at this point need to scale out in order not to get mt goxed as a precaution, not financial advice.

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It goes faster than expected without any bounce. If there is reversal bounce, can go up to 8.1k, I'd NOT think about it at the moment, cycle can end at 29 June. I'll sell my remaining coin on the bounce and ONLY scalping it, no intraday or long term trades will be made further other than shorting the bounce if it comes with futures + long/short scalping.

Longer term targets are STILL in effect, nothing changes, but it's now bearish targets.

BTCUSD Long Term Forecast - Bullish & Bearish Case

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On the basis of this acceleration... It feels 'forced', because it goes this fast and everybody thinks that bear is over in just summer (8 months), I think a nastier surprise towards 3 digits to 2k awaits us for a much longer bear market.

Short term

Medium term

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Last buy zones, MUST NOT go below 6.2k. If so, I will cash out and leave only small size on exchanges and go to other market.

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I think nobody knows where the bottom is before the bounce comes, but from my past charts for the bigger, the zone is 5.8-6.2 and expecting at least 7.1k when it comes. I think many who are short are scared now, if not, well, we will see it in the charts. As for me, I've set my rules and I'll stick with it, I'm not waiting for 5.8, if we go there, then it might go lower, as we know btc by now, so going lower than 6.2k, I will only scalp at mex at most.

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Calling the bottom for next months @ $6180, I've put in a long futures contract.

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İşlem aktif

Not

Kill the bears

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Epic destruction of bottom shorters

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Bullish reversal. Called the bottom 30 min in advance.
Summer is going to look BULLISH, green months.

Still f#ckery at the bottom of bears in disbelief, we will see how bitmex rekt feed will deal with them ;-)

Not

Going to 8K+ easily

Not

Big buys on all fiat exchanges, Finex will lead the charge later ;-)

Not

A lot of people asked why I feel so confident saying this is bottom.
If going below 5.925k, then you know what this means? It would mean end of business for many people, like exchanges, many traders, companies, etc., because without any bounce only going down means something is wrong with crypto, so that won't happen and I don't think any MM would allow it, I wouldn't allow if I were MM.
Also, I have experienced this many times before after lost my shirt in dot com and in crypto happened before as well.

I've got to say, chapeau for Kraken, their engine WORKED 100% during this crazy bottom fight, so I assume they have fixed their engine. After sometimes frustrating weeks with outages and errors (you might have noticed), it's working PERFECT at important times, GOOD JOB Kraken! I want to make my apologies for the previous rants and the problem with cryptowatch wasn't their fault in the end, so I was wrong there. Gotta say, I love Kraken!

I cannot say this of Bitmex, they went overload, but I had auto orders and limits are preset, so it wasn't problem for me.

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Click Play button on this chart, 100% perfect hit bottom on new support time trendline :-)

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^ You can zoom in by dragging the horizontal and vertical bars with your mouse

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Important post @ 14-06-'18 direction of the King.

What to look for now:
#1 Daily close above 6.395k (1:15h left)
#2 6.6k first minor resistance
#3 Break 8.1-8.3 gives path to 10.4k; Break 10.4k then path is free to 13-14.2k (I expect break of 12k on 3rd try)
#4 Remember, trading is game of possibilities and it's possible this reversal is enough to set the bottom in once we break 14.2k. If not, well, you know what direction it will go.

Short term chart

Not

Bitcoin looks like in Wyckoff phase C spring stage, although harder to see than Ethereum, which is very easy to see on the daily chart, especially Feb-June (now). This will be very interesting to see it unfold the coming months.

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First requirement met, looking good so far.

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^ Correction from earlier post (typo)
"#1 Daily close above 6.395k (1:15h left) "
>> 6.295 (100 lower), which is the new support trendline based on the daily close of 6k, 6.45k and this bottom close.

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Zoomed in (since you can barely see it previous chart)

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7k test first, moment of truth will be shown if dead cat bounce or not

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BREAKING NEWS: SEC SAYS ETHEREUM NOT A SECURITY, BULLRUN CONFIRMED

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uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-ethereum-not-securities-cryptocurrencies-162700232.html

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Idk why, but suddenly over 20 pms and comments, I've no time, sorry, have open trades, I come back when I have free time.

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Going as planned

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Can set sl in profit area now, just in case...

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Pseudo minor bearish wave count in red + invalidation level bullish case vs abc

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I like to see accumulation just above the bottom for a few weeks or less, right now, looks like correction and I don't like it, unless one accumulates here. If we go lower, 5.8k short term and 4.8-5k medium term. I don't think we go to 1.8-3.3k these months, in fact I think MM doesn't even allow it.

What I'd do is create a bottom here and go to 8.3k, 10.4k,12k, 14.2k or range trade 6.5-9k / 6-12k for another year, like gold. I just cannot see it break in one go.

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If no accumulation happens within a few days, I'll not be surprised if the following will unfold (lower lows)

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^ ETA 1-2 weeks

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Going to test the bottom, hope you took profits using stop or otherwise like said yesterday.

People are wrong in thinking the manipulation happens at finex first, it's on mex first, then they move the price at finex and the rest follows, who ever this group is. The real money is at mex where billions of dollars a day move around.

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New chart guys, bullish case possibility

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SL is required for all trades at the moment, on both sides.

There are 2 fractals at play, one bullish, one bearish. I give bias to bullish for the time being, but this doesn't look convincing, I wanna see accumulation, not hanging around near resistance and people panic selling when it dips... this doesn't look like it will pump to 6.95k... but collecting shorts at mex, very disappointed at the low vol action at finex.

There can be one more leg down or it will be truncated at a higher low just above bottom, best case is to hold 6.2k and 6.15k is last defence.

Otherwise next target in chart. Funny how the pump happened at the exact inner edge of my prediction from 2 weeks ago.

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That's what you get for shorting the bottom Fools, warned you again 2nd time. Short liquidations en masse 100m usd shorts liquidated in 30 seconds, good game!

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^ Yep, that's what capital F, but won't apply to most if any of you, if you feel offended, then you know I'm talking to you, lol.

I can see some profit taking here, then go down again, accumulating before next rally, just my opinion.

Not

Bitcoin Obituaries:
youtube.com/watch?v=-hlN2nel5HI
99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/

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The kindergarten squad has arrived once again:
#1 Load the Korean FUD
twitter.com/BithumbOfficial/status/1009239883645243392?s=19
#2 Dump it
#3 Release the FUD news

Herd believes everything they hear, covered tracks what you want to do anyway, job done.

Seriously, anyone still falling for this and the fakenews and even on msm fakenews that 30 million USD hack can lead to over a combined 80k market sell off? Only in one's wildest dreams. 80k bitcoin != 30m USD. Was all in the charts anyway. Maybe forex needs to have fakenews printing every move as well, explaining to Joe Smoe the reason for this and that, all out of thin air, it's amazing this world.

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Funny how EOS was dumped on Bitfinex first, before they dumped Bitcoin, then 10 minutes later comes the FUD. I've watched it live on the charts.

Someone needs to put all the events + timestamps recorded in a chart what a joke this all is.

We got some serious conartists in this game and/or insiders, so what is it. And 30 million usd isn't even that much, Bithumb covers all potential losses as per their tweet.

Just seeking for arguments to justify moves, but this move was anticipated from my chart in advance. Just sad how it didn't reach target with $100 more.

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Quick update:
Funny how people keep changing their targets every time it pumps or dumps :-)
Changing target from 8k to 7k, 6k, 5k, 4k 3k, then back and forth when there is some movement, when in reality that movement is part of the bigger movement and price and pattern structure.

Just watch how it will bart pump and stop them out, yet again, 100th time to complete the setup, then they go long and it will stop them out again as well.

Well, as for me, NOTHING changes, so patience is required.

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Finex feels like ghosttown, shillmex made LL 5 sec in advance and finex followed with very low vol. Should bounce here, but you never know what the mm at mex gonna do, feels like they direct entire crypto market, despite being a derivative, but it's easy to control once liquidity is gone at finex and can steer market at will with small amounts of btc... nevertheless I expect my targets to be met within a week, there are some bigger players buying spot around 6k and shillmex can pretend to make higher highs and lower lows all it wants, it follows liquidations very fast. Just compare finex and mex chart for yourself, they are NOT the same and give biased expectations in ta.

İşlem aktif

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Scaling in, it's not bottom yet, but want some shitcoins before it's getting pumped

İşlem aktif

Wyckoff spring here, either bottom for next coming years or market failure and multi year bear market. I bet positive for crypto.

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Completed target measured bear move.

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LTC at the moment recording ATH on shorts. You know what to do with bottom shorters. Call Bogdanoff ;-)

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Charlie Lee:
"I'm bullish and would buy the low right now."

twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/1009660343784787968

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That's what happens when Shitmex is ruling the market.

Bitfinex out, gamblers in with 100x, 10k becomes 1m usd.

Since last few weeks, the dumps and pumps ALWAYS happen at Bitmex, then Bitfinex, then rest follows Bitfinex. Unless bitmex is cash settled, this cancer will continue until the last gamblers liquidate their btc and price will only tank, tank and tank.

Just compare the two charts together. Bitmex constantly making newer highs or lows, totally different than any other exchange.

If 5.925k break, good luck, 4.8-5.2 is minor support, then next is 3.3k, then 1.8-2k, then 1.3k, then 3 digits, then 2 digits. Ask shtimex when the manipulation will stop, probably once they are shut down.

Look at top 10 most supply, all exchanges. This shit will tank, enjoy multi year bear market. It's over once exchanges do not have most supply anymore.

Good luck.

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Such a joke bitfinex, exactly $2 above market failure.

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Oh wait, Shitmex $5901, Bitfinex $5927, sorry guys, the whales already left Bitfinex a long time ago. Better wait for bounce, sell and gtfo. Get cash ready and buy from website, send to private wallet and reap rewards years later, while in meantime you can trade shitcoins to double your stack.

Use profits also for other markets, this market is done, already ghost town, just wait until last gamblers are liquidated 1 by 1 by marketmaker with empty books (low liquidity), wait until crypto is declared dead by the masses and msm, then buy. No advice, it's what I'm doing.

Good luck.

İşlem kapandı: durdurma seviyesi

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Check bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html
Wait until exchanges are not in top 10 anymore... check if their wallets are shrinking. If not and they're increasing, people are cashing out. Do not gamble, this market is dead, the liquidity is gone, it's only pump and dump by Shitmex MM, who then controls Bitfinex moves and everyone follows Bitfinex still.

This game is over. Bitmex reached the market failure, it's matter of time before they break it on Bitfinex. Everybody waiting for bottom this and that, but nobody knows where that bottom is when everybody left. The bottom is there when you see a massive 50-100% candle liquidating, then dump, rinse and repeat. Anybody remember '14 knows the pump and dump liquidations on okex 10x/20x every single day, this is crypto again after 4 years, a graveyard of shorters and longers, gamblers till death.

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If you think I talk out of my ass, here you go, look price + volume delta

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bitfinex - bigger picture, triangle break to 2k
ibb.co/cGV4po
bitfinex - bigger picture, zoomed in daily (from bubble to now)
ibb.co/kv0n9o
bitfinex - bigger picture, zoomed in daily (macro micro) with cme end futures & target
ibb.co/d1QyFT
bitflyer (jpy) - much different chart
ibb.co/dcZQvT

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If you wanna follow the trend using fractal... so far very accurate...

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Sell hard in rallies, they push price up to reshort with their profits, let them go to bottom where maybe someone is instant pump with 50-100% candle to stop this madness. That's the bottom that will never come back agian.

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Guys I warned you, low liquidity can easily pump and dump 50%. Bitcoin orderbooks are dead, be careful.,

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After pump they reload shorts dump at better price higher profits, so you bought dip can sell the rip. History is already been made in charts, this bottom is broken, it's done.

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Well, people ask me what I'm gonna do now, well it's what I used to do:
Scalping stocks, forex and waiting for dip in stock market to swing trade some quality stocks. I will cash out almost all money from crypto soon and play with little cash from now on, it's waste of time and pure scumbaggery by organized gamblers pump and dump mm whales going 100x and leading finex which is ghosttown now.

So I will play maybe 25x/50x/100x scalp on mex, swingtrades on kraken and maybe use some profits from mex to rex for shitcoins, but I don't bother to buy anything, nothing, only scalps and short on the swing. As long as shorters are winning, they have profit to push this market in the ground. All those bids will be filled and it's only going down, down and down, so long as nobody is pumping this market and all bagholders will be underwater that want to sell breakeven, creating more resistance or they outright get stopped out, so I repeat: it's only going down, down, down, until somebody pumps this shit up with 50-100% instantly to liquidate shorters, but that won't happen at this price.

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Answer 2 questions: No, I'm not buying shitcoin anymore, let it burn to the ground, pure scam upheld by algo's. Bitcoin can bounce 5.5k, 5k, then what, maybe 10-20% up? Not worth it when bottom can be 3k, 2k, 3 digits and maybe 1-2 year bear market only to see bleeding? No thanks. What use is shitcoin when you wait 35 min to partial fill 20%... Only trade bitcoin, let shitcoins all burn in hell.

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Yes, I made mistake with my stoploss, I bought almost exact bottom for EUR + USD, but I had SL below my entry, when I could have profit when I increase my SL in profit area, I end up with loss, was big mistake. Now only use SL for long/spot IMMEDIATELY when hit profit area. If stopped out and goes higher, do NOT chase, wait for short op instead, same for long when is at bottom, rinse and repeat.

So you keep profiting by taking away from those scammers.

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Guys, don't fomo. This tactic is not about TA, it's about liquidations and reshorting. They are ALL short, there are almost NO buyers left and also NO more sellers, because they are stuck in short position (no more cash), they need to close, so THEY buy it, not joe fomo. Then they will reshort harder with realized profit. Don't be fooled. You can buy spot and ride with it, using SL in profit area.

Now can be short squeeze #4, but won't happen as you see before 3 times, because mm is gone at Bitfinex. This space is indeed a toxic cestpool.

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They probably gonna pump it soon. Pure scam SL hunt then pump it, but now a lot of bagholders got filled, so they need to sell as well, so his 6k will be a nice resistance in the future if we continue to break down, which I believe we will. In the end, we all can see the liquidity is gone and sometimes you don't see a trade for 15 minutes... so let the few who remain play with overleverage and destroy themselves. If they keep the price artificially high, no smart investors will invest in this. Would you when somebody owns 90% of the stock and has a record of pnd and manipulating prices high?

Maybe I need to adjust my timing regarding end of bear market in 2020 when regulations are in play, bureaucrats are slow, I honestly don't see this changing any time soon.

After the pump I will dump my last bitcoin, maybe fill some shorts and I'm out. Too bad I've put in a long futures contract, in knowledge of CME ending in a week, but after breaking the 6k, it doesn't forebode well for next month, despite closing higher, it doesn't mean a damn when the demand has not catched the dip, the facts are in the chart, 5.925k broken, it's done.

Now it's matter of time before I see more people leave this titanic. Luckily I don't hodl, but too bad I didn't got short filled and got stopped out. I bought a bit spot pre pump and got some last bags of btc, all for sale soon for highest bidder. So long.

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This is what I'm talking about...
"[21:12:05 UTC] Liquidating long on BitMEX XBTUSD - Sell 10,000,000 @ 5,987.5"
twitter.com/BigRekts/status/1010269216421957634

Look at all those big longs liquidated. Screwing up chart for history? No problem, money rules when you play with 100x... everything else can go to hell.

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I should explain "stop reached", since you barely see any trades of mine reach this status if you follow me long enough. I bought at 6.15 up to 6k and got stopped out below 6k, so you see I had extremely tight sl, but bitmex reached market failure and hit my sl at the bottom. I don't know if this coincidence or not, but it smells bad, since no other exchange went there except bitfinex where the moves get emulated 0.5-3 seconds after. So with slippage got stopped out at ~5.95k when the bottom was ~$50 below it @ 5.9k... Yeah, that was a lot of money lost, despite < 1%, but it is what it is.

It was mistake not to set SL at profit area, since bought near the bottom and even now 24 hours later the price is higher. But not looking to buy anymore at this level, the bulls and whales on bitfinex seem all gone, lesson learned and I should have know it from 2 months ago, I didn't thought of it when trading.

The longer consolidates here and shorters taking profit, then bigger the next dump, it''s still missing a good leg down before a bounce.

The dump will not stop if the price will not be pumped, buyers get less money, while dumpers will be in big profit to reload more, especially on long liquidations, which is just free money, hence they can pressure and short the bottom and eventually it goes... down. That's why shorting was and still is forbidden in many countries.

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I'm expecting some whipsaw action and some short liquidations soon. I'd not buy for medium and long term, maybe shortterm and def for a scalp. Probably last chance to sell your bags and gtfo before market collapse.

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Altcoin bloodbad, ETH ath shorts, outnumbering longs for days now, people kept telling short squeeze and like I've said, it ain't gonna happen. The whales already left the building, bears in huge profits +40% on most shitcoins in just a few weeks. LTC, ETH and EOS down the shitter. It ain't stopping, lol, madness.

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!!!
youtube.com/watch?v=079RCUtk8s4

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I love it how shorts get liquidated just by a 1-2% move, overleveraged gamblers 50x/100x at bottom, hahaha, same for longs at the top *shaking my head*. Waiting for the crash, let the capitulation come!

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I see over 50 short liquidations in 30 seconds on screen, really smart people to short near bottom. Probably one more leg down.

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I've warned you guys... Pump and dump lambo candles... Low is set for a while... That's what happens when you got manipulators using 100x on bitmex ruling bitfinex now, the mm and original whales already left bitfinex since a few months near 10k top. Missed longs with ~$100...

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Lock in profit and cash out soon, this shit will reapeat '13, '14 and '15 pump and dump for another 1-2 years, liquidating entire accounts. I've warned you guys before exactly like this, because it happened before. Your calculated targets will not be met, whipsaw and random pnd's are common soon. You will see when that 50-100% lambo candle comes, followed by immediate dump and 100 liquidations on your screen in seconds, rinse and repeat until there are few winners and many losers.

Be very very careful, especially with leverage.

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Which TA technique predicted this dump and pump? I've scanned ideas was no one close to this target, had mine $80 off from the first scale in buy, it doesn't even make sense, but makes sense when $100 million USD is liquidated, money on leverage gone.

I'm waiting for a better bottom to buy, if goes higher, good op to short this pnd scam. I can foresee the day mex is being shutdown by authorities, 100x leverage and no identification, lol, go figure.

This 1.3k idea is probably being saved on the weekly candle... 2k and 3.3k still stands. I expect 1-2 year bear market, because this manipulation also will be rooted out when regulators step in and shut down this casino.

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I've removed all my buy orders, this is going lower now, 5k. Be careful providing liquidity to these guys here at premium price.

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I need to clarify this, since confusing with some people.
It's probably consolidating, trying to create higher high, if success, will be lower in height, but not more than few hundred pts, probab, then retry, reject, then will be dump or will outright bart dump and retry with lower high pump. I don't think is reversal, there were not enough bottom shorters who got liquidated or has liquidation point around here, since vol was very low and this launchpad wasn't based on anything, no accumulation, nothing.

To me, nothing more then pump and dump. If was key reversal, would have been lower price or already above the 5.925k, accumulating instead of breaking to newer lows... pretty self explantory.

So, this makes me believe it want to redistribute higher price, reload shorts and go lower. That being said, I think next days will probably hand around here before finishing either truncated to my target 5.5-5.65k or 5k, if break 4.8k then all hell breaks lose.

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6.45k max then dump or dump now 6k for retry.

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Lol, another $250 mil tethers printed, like all previous pumps, how convenient.
You still this is conspiracy? It happened 100% so far.

omniexplorer.info/address/1NTMakcgVwQpMdGxRQnFKyb3G1FAJysSfz

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It shouldn't come as surprise that MM is liquidating longs and shorts left and right. Have been warning for this whipsaw action for a long time. When liquidity is gone in summer, be careful going on margin, you might wake up with an empty account.
Very low vol, bots in action on the 1 min. Those famous patterns never get old.

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^ I want to clarify I'm not accusing exchanges, but a group whose constantly moving markets across all exchanges at the same time is no coincidence. I'm a happy long time loyal member of bitfinex, bitmex, kraken and bitrex and never had any issues with those top exchanges and highly recommend them if you trade crypto. Just want to warn you about the dangers when you swim with sharks who play on those exchanges that you should check your risk and money management, i.e. margin.

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Quick update: I expected larger dump of stop losses going off and shorts increasing when we broke 6k, but nothing so far and the weekend pump at 5.75k sounds too fishy. They probably are hiding at 5.5k since a lot of people are expecting 5.5k to be the bottom. Probably a sl sweep soonish, since the orders are pretty densely stacked at 5.5k across almost all exchanges, so this dump has to come with volume and I can see a huge downwick providing liquidity to close shorts and/or fill longs/spots. Who knows how big this wick is going to be when this scenario unfolds, it's certainly scary, but no need when you go spot only.

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48.5.k btc (300MM USD) has been moved 2 days ago. Any thoughts?
bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/12YygZpCEC8VED2oSMQdWCq5xBnHo9ts1Z

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There is a 3500 btc wall at bitmex, so they probably gonna eat it, then dump. Shit never gets old. Maybe they think they can liquidate him in the assumption it's 100 x 35, but maybe he was the one who pumped it ;-)

But yeah, the mm gonna do now what they gonna do after the cash is settled 9 July.

Xm broker already dropped crypto trading, because of this pump and dump action and illiquid orderbooks. I think more will follow, like etoro.

Heed the warning of VenZen.

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^ Which proofs my point, 99.99% of traders do not care about crypto at all, just about fiat, how that is attained is no problem, like no problem to trade bitconnect or pnds, liquidations, running stops, as long as it's profit. Crypto has changed so much from the past, it's became rotten.

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FUD is in the air... careful for instant dumps, can be released any time this month. If price goes high, short it, 6.75-7k all the way up and take profit and cash out what you cannot afford to lose. Scale in, don't use high leverage (1:1 is fine) and hedge with spot buys if they manipulate a pnd.

It's not the bottom. Mm have destroyed the markets for a few pennies worth of "white cash" using futures, that's how narrow minded they're or they just cannot legitimately sell their btc to you anymore. I think there is no more back now, maybe 11.2-12k, but I HIGHLY DOUBT it, since I know some big guys wanting to get out for a better or breakeven price, having bigger bags than your entire net worth.

Knowledge of bubble patterns and psychology can give clues to when the bottom is reached and the price is unknown. 5k, 4k, 3k, 2k, 1k, 3 digits? It will not be bought by traders first, but accumulated over a long period of time by those who deem it a good price for long term.
Before manipulation happened was 3 digits 2017 and without tether is estimated on log trendline worth to be ~2-2.4k, but since was pumped to 20k, (yes, don't be a hypocrite, pump was totally manipulated, so do not say about dump only), the data gives wrong results and interpretations.

Forget about TA for a moment and think if you have a brain. I think the game is up and the regulators, governments and msm see it now as well. I think we will see more on msm coverage of all this bs and fud coming out in the coming weeks.

As long as people are bullish, they will lose money in the end.

Also, I do not think 99% of people in here know what the longs + shorts mean at bitfinex. People say it's retail, but fact is, when you think and speak to me like that, YOU are the retail to me. The positions are also entirely manipulated. You really think mr pleb is stupid to short 3.5k at the bottom when we had this +10% pump? Mr pleb does not have 3.5k short. Shorts were put in blocks of 500 pcs per order.

I give you a secret how this works:
#1 Hidden spot buy wall
#2 Get your short higher price (delta is extra profit)
#3 Short remaining in your own wall (wash trading)
#4 Close all 3.5k shorts at once
Result = lambo candle. Sell to suckers/retail traders all the way to retrace where they buy. Wait until the signal is given to dump all at once.
Same story for longs at top/resistance.
This is BIG money profits, you think they lose, but you're very wrong. The losses are retail. This is how small cap shitcoins are played as well.

You might have learned something. Nobody will tell you this, in fact I hear everyone having it wrong and don't understand this easy strategy.

Not

I don't think higher than 6.75-6.8k. 6.75 is very nice short position, 6.6k should be top or most likely now a lower high then down. Many lucky gamblers made very good money with their longs at the bottom while not being stopped out with a lower low stop sweep, amazing how only Stamp did it... and I know, because people came to me in fear what it was going to do and ask for my opinion... And guys, when there is momentum in any market, I simply do not react to pms, because most likely im in a trade.

If break 6.8k flip or hedge with spot. Don't use high leverage, unless you're scalper and know what you're doing.

No advice, just seeing opportunities for both sides you can trade this. And people think I only short... I do both long and short all the time.

Not

When low vol can pump +10%, most of the time is followed by vol dumps double or triple in reverse.

For people saying can go to $1 million USD, you're absolutely right, that is, in tethers when this happens i.imgur.com/XUARuwd.png
Perpectives ;-)

Not

By the way, tether is now in top 10 market cap with #2 most traded vol 24 hours for several days now. I'm gonna open a bottle of champagne when it reaches top 3 market cap.

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Oops, posted this in the wrong thread, copy paste:
"It will be something like the chart I've posted 1 week ago, but remove some lines until it reaches 4k"

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There is a setup forming for a 2-steps impulsive move down to 5k'ish, then quickly followed up to 4k'ish, I will post updates later, but first enjoying this week of 30*C sunny weather. Removed my bids from the book.

Good luck guys :-)

Not

Have found some free time now at night, so here is the road to 4k and possible capitulation (on bad news or when bagholders (investors/companies) are selling their inventory).

There are no bids other than traders from 5k onwards. The rest are all the same guys, but there is way more selling and exiting than new money coming in. This smells like a big fat bull trap to me and an exiting market at premium price, since they pumped up so high on very low vol, because the sell side was very illiquid (see volume profile gaps). This will come down very hard on low vol as well, catalyzed by real vol from exiteers straight through 5.5k and 5k static support. I have been monitoring bitfinex and bitmex orderbooks for months.

As you can see, it overshoots any TA targets and this I've warned you for weeks now (illiquid books and people exiting a failed market), hence easy pumps and dumps on low vol, which means professional brokers have already disabled services to trade bitcoin and I think more will follow.

So, what do I do? I look at volume and separate the same guys from the static orders, look at the gaps, calculate how much btc sell will affect the price and compare it to previous dates (vol + price) to get rough estimates what to expect next. I came to the conclusion it's not smart to buy at 5k now when there is now high possibility to crash right through it.

Not

Close up

Not

Going awol. I've put in short to hedge my long futures @ 6k from weeks ago. Going to enjoy summer holidays, pc will be on to monitor crypto index. I've pulled all open orders. Depending how market goes, I might push button to close all crypto positions and cash out.

Have a nice summer guys.

Remember targets (potential bottoms):
Bullish = 4.3-5.2k
Neutral = 3.2-3.3k
Expected long term = 1.6-2.2k
Bearish = 800-1300

Not

Quick update so you're not screwed over if you're short, might want to set SL or hedge... entire upmove was on low vol, but wedge break also low vol.

Where volume?? Might want to read Dow Theory. Can go both ways, bias to down, but thinking about Venzen's tweet, exchanges might be behind this to prop price above their liquidation levels and that guy is almost always right:
twitter.com/venzen/status/1011950524696911874

Not

If you don't, this might happen to you
pbs.twimg.com/media/DhSavWEVMAADgxg.jpg:large

Not

Green = bullish wyckoff case

Not

The wyckoff bulls are looking for, it is still on track, compare the chart from a week ago to this one. It's no guarantee this will play out, but one of the scenario's.

Personally, I think goes lower, but if it doesn't, I have plan C to capitalize on, it's called "ideas" for a reason.

Take a look at my other chart for different thoughts of school (no wyckoff there)

BTCUSD Bulltrap being set up by market makers?

İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı

Target hit EXACTLY $3300. Start: March 22 '18, End: December 22 '18

CryptoSwindle

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