Since the end of December, everyone I know in crypto has been scratching their heads over the massive sell-off of our market in the midst of massive public interest and a flood of new money. It just kept on coming. Everyone had a different excuse. It was explained by Elliot Wave experts as a failure to complete previous cycles. Something that reminds me of our ancestors blaming some overlooked ritual for a lack of rain. Now we know the answer ... the Tokyo Whale.
"Nobuaki Kobayashi, bankruptcy trustee for Mt. Gox, the largest bitcoin exchange in the world before hackers absconded with tens of thousands of customers' bitcoins worth billions at recent prices, said he started selling in late September, meaning it's quite possible he sold at least some of the coins at the highs reached toward the end of last year."
Actually, it appears he transferred thousands of Bitcoins out of cold storage just before massive sell-offs in the market around the market peak at 20k. 400 billion in Bitcoin was sold, and here's the kicker, there's still 1.9 BILLION to go. That's almost 5 times the amount sold already.
We don't know if the Tokyo Whale is following a pattern, but my guess is he just waits for the market to recover, then sells down to the 5-6k level, then starts again. Looking back on the destruction he brought to my portfolio (and everyone else) I don't plan on making the same mistake again.
After watching the sell-off two days ago I realized I was looking at almost identical levels from early February. During one crash on Feb 3-6 BTC dropped from the mid 11k area to 9200. Almost identical to what just happened. What happened next in early February was a second sell-off bringing us into the 5k range. My chart shows an example of this pattern and a few targets for a second sell-off bottom. These are only guesses but if history repeats itself, we might be able to get a second chance to pick up our favorite coins at extremely low levels once again.
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