Retrace, because thats what we bears most love to do

30 Nis 2020

Pumpwhales decided they were done at 9480, so the bears have finally found their appetite. Dark rising trendline is the floor, should hold for some time, we've got some bulls to exhaust before the big correction comes.

Was long since 6800, when this rally started, fibs will be the guide. Expect whiplash even steeper than the pump in some places 😉

30 Nis 2020

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forgot to link last chart...

30 Nis 2020

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good so far...

30 Nis 2020

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bids filled at 8430, .618 touched, asks set for 9130, swing up time 😉

30 Nis 2020

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paused for pullback on the median of the oscillation, took profits at 8850, re-entered 8710. climbing back up to median, will pop hard after 8800

30 Nis 2020

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longer reach just sets up inverted H&S, which is guaranteed to get bitcoin fishes flying 😂

1 May 2020

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Geez, take the pumpwhales away, and this market suddenly has no appetite. We had a looong flat sideways out of that first wave bottom, not swinging back up to the top nearly as fast as I would expect given the velocity with which we got here. At this glacial speed, might not have enough energy to complete as many consolidation waves, and will take longer, so I've extended the timeframe.

1 May 2020

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alright - my original oscillations, which i scribbled furiously at the peak, were showing we consolidate, then drop to the bull line around 8200. That could still play out, wouldn't be surprised. BUT -- I don't think we had a proper retrace oscillation at all - the only "swing up" we've had was anemic. didn't even touch the fib, let alone overshoot it like it should have. also took forever to happen. That's "sagging" energy, where the impulse/retrace swings are bottom-heavy. So I'm not content that we've finished consolidating and are ready to head to the bull line. That 9200 zone needs to be hit (eventually) as part of the "second attempt" at the peak, then bulls give up and we reach for support.

Therefore, this is my alternate scenario, where we get to 8200 -- but later, after making a harmonic pattern here to 9200 first. You'll know this is happening if we start dropping here -- but suddenly stop **higher** than the last low around 8430 and go sideways instead. Everyone expecting a straight trip to 8200 will get whiplash as we head up instead, abandoning their shorts and fueling the climb -------- only to turn bullish late again, as we head back down to the original 8200 that everyone was impatient for 😉

1 May 2020

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fib touched from underside, top of congestion range. sold more 8840,

2 May 2020

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first kiss of downline denied

2 May 2020

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we may have a new rising channel for this local action, trendlines go waaaay back. would explain the drift up in our otherwise sideways range. We just kissed the top of this congestion zone at 8950, but haven't gone past yet. I'm now very doubtful we'll get the next low I had projected. Sideways = up in these channels, and whales are splashing to get us past resistance. The harmonic could still get us from low to high 9200, but I don't see us dropping *any lower than 8600* on this next swing down, if it happens at all.

2 May 2020

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Original trade path is still very much in effect, here's an update on timing and target. Yes, I've been speculating with a bearish Gartley, but I'm inclined to doubt the ending rally to 9200 now. Feeling some serious Wyckoff distribution vibes, we just had a whale dump that felt a lot like LPSY 😉 Sold 8900 on the retest of median underside

2 May 2020

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sold 8950, whales attempting to draw bids underneath them with looooong fishing pole reaching up, next dump will slip too. Moving on to next published chart, won't be updating this one.